Bits Bucket for June 4, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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stocks and homes will lead you to riches unimaginable
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2013-06-02 09:04:34
Owning is a better option for most people in most circumstances. I think it’s a lifestyle thing as much as an economics thing. If you’re 25 and single and own nothing but a TV and a bed, then yeah, renting an apartment is probably the way to go and you can move to a new one every few months.
with owning you have a shot a free equity in the housing casino.
You can’t win if you don’t play.
With owning, you have a shot at losing a bundle of money when interest rates revert to historic norms.
Whac-bear, you’re relating only one possible scenario. Scenarios, off the top of my head:
1. Whac-bear scenario: Interest rates rise fast and house prices drop fast. J6P is better off renting and waiting.
2. Oxide scenario: Interest rates rise slowly and house prices drop slowly. This takes so much time that you spend more money in rent than the worth of the price drop. And some other force is likely to intervene in the meantime.
3. Federal reserve scenario: Interest rates rise so slowly that inflation cancels out the increase in PITI. House prices don’t drop at all. They follow a bumpy plateau for a decade.
4. Deterioration scenario: Interest rates rise and house prices drop, but over the years the house itself deteriorates to where thousands of $$ in repairs cancels out the thousands of $$ in price drop. I see this happening in the inner burbs, where the land is more valuable but the houses are Cold-War era.
5. Gilded Age scenario: Interest rates rise, but it doesn’t matter. By that time, the moneyed interests buy up the good properties for cash. J6P can’t compete because he has to pay interest.
“Interest rates rise slowly and house prices drop slowly.”
So far the empirical evidence is not working out to support your scenario.
June 4, 2013, 8:45 a.m. EDT
Treasurys fall on below-forecast trade deficit
By Ben Eisen
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices moved lower Tuesday after the U.S. trade deficit rose less than expected. The deficit widened 8.5% in April to $40.3 billion, below expectations of $41.5 billion from MarketWatch-surveyed economists. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note (10_YEAR +0.09%) yield, which moves inversely to price, was up 2 basis points at 2.143%. The 30-year bond (30_YEAR +0.37%) yield was up 2 basis points at 3.284% while the 5-year note (5_YEAR +0.19%) yield was up slightly at 1.039%.
…
Bulletin » U.S. stocks trim losses as session nears end
Jeff Gundlach warns: A repeat of May’s yield surge would unhinge stocks
June 4, 2013, 1:48 PM
Even though stocks are only off 2%-3% their recent highs following a near half-percentage point rise in 10-year Treasury yields in May, don’t expect the stock market to show the same resilience if we get another jump in yields.
That’s what Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Funds, told CNBC’s Halftime Report in an interview Tuesday. And with the Federal Reserve supporting the bond market, Gundlach sees that support likely tapering off soon.
“I do think the Fed is likely to buy fewer bonds in the months ahead than they have in past months simply because I think the bond-buying program is really a side-door way of financing the budget deficit,” Gundlach said. “And the budget deficit is less than it was last year and it’s going to be that way because of the tax increases and a little bit of sequestration and the like so the Fed doesn’t need to do as much bond buying.”
The bond guru does see rates and yields going a little higher, with the 10-year Treasury (10_YEAR +0.80%) seeing support at 2.40% and a target yield of 3.00%. However, he said: “I do believe the 10-year yield will fall back below 2% as we move into the summer and into the fall.” Those comments seemed to help Treasurys pare losses midday.
…
Up, up and away…
June 4, 2013, 3:23 p.m. EDT
Zillow: U.S. 30-year mortgage rises for 5th week
By Debbie Cai
Real-estate website Zillow Inc. (Z -4.36%) said its real-time rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages continued rising for the fifth consecutive week, remaining near 12-month highs.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace was 3.87%, up from 3.71% the prior week. The Mortgage Marketplace, which launched in April 2008, recorded declines for much of last year.
“Rates stayed near 12 month highs, reflecting expectations for a winding down of Fed stimulus,” said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. “This week, we expect rates to remain at these levels unless Friday’s jobs report delivers unexpected news.”
Zillow said the rate for a 15-year fixed home loan was 2.97%, climbing from 2.87% last week. The rate for a 5-1 adjustable-rate mortgage was 2.48%, up from 2.37% in the week earlier. A 5-1 ARM has an initial rate that applies for the first five years of the loan and then adjusts annually.
…
Another scenario:
Interest rates rise. Housing prices rise (for rental as well as ownership).
This is what we saw throughout the 70’s-80’s and into the 1990’s, and what many of us see as the long-term trend. I can recall my foreman telling me (1998) that I’d “never get my money out” of the house I was building (approx $400/sq foot as GC in 1998) . As I had no intention of ever selling it, let alone selling it in a fluctuating market, it made no difference to me whether or not I could “build for ‘alot’ less”.
But for those who saw their houses as investment, both ownership and rental rates for the houses we built in 1998 have indeed risen over the last 15 years. (Although I expect them to fall again in the mid-term.)
give the house back and walk away. you cant lose.
Just make sure to have a low down payment loan. Like a 3% FHA. You’ll make that back during the rent free period before you are evicted.
“With owning, you have a shot at losing a bundle of money when interest rates revert to historic norms.”
Interest rates have been where they are for 11-12 years. They could stay here for another 10 years easy.
math is hard.
“Interest rates have been where they are for 11-12 years.”
They have? Seriously? Is that why rates are 33% lower today than just a few years ago?
Chilidog is right……. You really do struggle with math Eddietard Slithers.
6 years ago, rates were over 7%. What were you saying again, Slithers?
Please don’t feed the troll. He’s just upset that Voldemort didn’t win the election.
Wait a minute…
Just like that, Japan’s Nikkei has erased nearly half its gains for the year
Quartz | 06/03/2013 | Simone Foxman
The Nikkei 225—Japan’s most highly cited stock index—has been on a wild ride this year. On May 22, the index was up 50% since the start of the year. But after four days of approximately 500-point losses, the Nikkei has erased 23% of its gains. The index fell 3.7% today alone.
Analysts credit a lot of Japan’s stock market rally to promises from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan that they will create inflation and spur economic growth in a three-pronged program referred to as Abenomics. If all goes as they hope, the program would end two decades of economic malaise. But faith in these policies could be flagging. Whether or not this is the time to freak out about Japan, investors are certainly questioning their faith in Japanese stocks.
It will not happen in US because we are different and better.
Many college students I talk with seem to casually accept their huge debt burdens. They assume they will walk into good-paying jobs with their non-Ivy League undergraduate liberal arts degrees and pay them off in a few years.
Or they think there will be some kind of grand forgiveness of college loans.
At least by the time they graduate they will be well versed in blaming Republicans for all their problems.
—————–
Why Student Loan Debt Will Crush The Recovery
The Daily Reckoning | 6-3-2013 | Jason Ferrell
Last week, US News & World Report’s money blog noted the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s recent ominous findings: Student loan borrowers, facing mounting debts and diminished prospects for employment, are retreating from other markets they customarily supported, such as housing and auto loans:
“In the past, young adults with student loan debt were more likely to buy a house than those without student loan debt. In fact, in the years leading up to the recession, a gap emerged between homebuyers with student loans and those without. The gap grew as high as 14 percentage points in 2008, and then the paradigm shifted. Homeownership rapidly decreased among those with student loans until those without student loans were buying homes in greater proportion.”
The absence of first-time homebuyers supporting home construction, car manufacturing and related industries has had a ripple effect through the economy, according to the Fed.
With student debt having grown over 500% since 1999, 48% of 25-34-year olds unemployed and little expected to change in employment terms, this is one bubble we’ve been keeping an eye on for a while now. Our own Dan Amoss said back in November that “within a handful of years, U.S. taxpayers will be on the hook for over $100 billion in student loan defaults,” citing a Department of Education report that showed a spike in delinquencies.
Student loan forgiveness = permanent democrat supermajority
Student debt cramdowns are coming.
yep…and you folks thought that only the baby boomer generation was cabable of stealing from future generations.
Wait, but if unemployed new graduates default on student loans, wouldn’t that be stealing from their own generation? These folks are young. They might actually feel the pain down the road.
I bet they don’t end up defaulting. Instead they’ll be made an offer they can’t refuse in return for debt forgiveness.
I bet they don’t end up defaulting. Instead they’ll be made an offer they can’t refuse in return for debt forgiveness.
Only if they vote the correct way and belong and support the correct political groups.
Find yourself with the wrong bunch of people or the author of an blog critical of “hope and change” - there will be no loan forgiveness and you will relentlessly audited by the IRS.
Isn’t politicizing the civil service fun!
The Chicago Way works!
debt forgiveness……Only if they vote the correct way
OK 2banana, let’s work through this. You think it’s the government’s fault college is so expensive because it pushes student loans.
So if the government forgives the student loans that it was “responsible” for inflicting on our snowflakes, does this not mean the government is righting a wrong?
So would you view this as government righting a wrong or would you rant and rail about more “free cheese”?
Or would your view depend on which party held the White House and Congress?
i would be ok with this if we amended the constitution to make it illegal for federal, state, or local government to ever guarantee the loan of a private citizen, company, or other government.
or something like that.
Here is how the US government could easily solve the problem of the insane costs for tuition for college.
Come January 1st, 2014:
The US Government will no longer guarantee ANY college loans.
The US Government will no longer give ANY tax credits, loans or grants for college.
All debt (to include COLLEGE LOANS) will be dischargeable in bankruptcy court.
The US government will not bail out any colleges.
College cost would FALL dramatically. College costs would STAY LOW. And it would not cost the US Government one dollar.
So why won’t the US government do this?
Because the free sh*t army votes.
count me in 2b.
Here is how the US government could easily solve….
Are you ducking my question at
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-06-04 09:50:41 ?
“So if the government forgives the student loans that it was “responsible” for inflicting on our snowflakes, does this not mean the government is righting a wrong?”
the wrong is not that these schlubs took out too much debt…the wrong is that the government guarnteed that debt.
“College cost would FALL dramatically. College costs would STAY LOW. “
Costs will not necessarily fall. College costs are driven not by what they can charge, but by what the college has to pay in expenses.
Many colleges would fail. Many students would be priced out of college. The remaining colleges would cater to the wealthiest students for whom cost is not a problem.
If the wretched poors wanted an education, they should have chosen wealthier parents.
A greater threat to colleges is the increase of free courses available online.
OMG I agree with everything in 2banana’s post. (except that the free $h*t army is ignorant and doesn’t realize these current policies aren’t free, they just make $h*t more expensive.)
Yeah, how come no one is suggesting that we accredit online classes, or institute other mass production of education that the internet makes available? We have only had the greatest invention of education and communication in the past 500 years since the invention of the printing press and we somehow can’t figure out how to use it to actually educate our citizens?? WTF? Who is in charge again? And why are they still there? If the department of education is so good, how come there isn’t an approved university level online course for basic math science and literature majors that students can take some 20 odd years after the internet has become prevalent?
how come no one is suggesting that we accredit online classes,
Yes…
Many universities do. But online accreditation is not widely accepted as legit — as of yet.
Since 2008, I taken courses from MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, Yale, Amherst, UCLA (through extension) and Columbia. I’ve also taken multi-lecture courses by DVD — from some of the best-known professors on the planet. Most of these were ultra low cost or free. None of them were for credit (although some offered credit if I paid them regular tuition for the credits.) And yet the knowledge they imparted was every bit as useful as courses I’ve taken on physical campuses.
Is this not education? Certainly I’d put my accumulated body of knowledge up against the degrees of anyone on this board.
The college experience today is more about student centers, apartment dorms, food services, sports arenas and new business school complexes than it is about classic coursework. A seismic shift is coming in the meritocracy as online learning takes over….
Well done.
A seismic shift is coming in the meritocracy as online learning takes over….
Perhaps exposing a much wider than expected gulf between the meritocracy part of life and the who you know part of life?
“At least by the time they graduate they will be well versed in blaming Republicans for all their problems. ”
They do this by the time they graduate high school after 12 years of union indoctrination by our esteemed “educators” aka union thugs.
Many college students I talk with seem to casually accept their huge debt burdens.”
Because most young people ain’t very smart.
Thus it has ever been.
If everybody else has them too, then it’s just a part of life, just like the draft used to be.
They’re not dumb. They just don’t understand how the world works and the full implications of their decisions yet. And most are desperate to appear grown up and successful, which makes them great candidates for selling themselves into slavery.
“They’re not dumb. They just don’t understand how the world works and the full implications of their decisions yet. And most are desperate to appear grown up and successful, which makes them great candidates for selling themselves into slavery.”
Their parents are likely dull and in debt up to their eyeballs too, so they are lacking in sober financial guidance; not all, but certainly many of ‘em.
The were smart enough to vote in “hope and change”
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Life is funny sometimes.
They will figure it out as government taxes take 50% of their paycheck and obamacare takes most of the rest.
Obama did NOT create gov backing of PRIVATE lending for student loans.
Shhhh, you’ll harsh his talking-point high.
i don’t care if he created it…just that he opposes it…which he doesn’t.
Actually, yes he does, but has been forced to compromise by the GOP corporate ho’s.
how does he oppose it… in the sense that taxpayers should be directly making the loans?
Google it michael. He can’t stop the program, but he is trying to ease the burden.
“obama on student loans”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/05/31/obama-to-push-congress-on-student-loans/
There you go. Good find.
“Obama urged students to lobby lawmakers to improve on a House bill that the White House argues does not go far enough. He said it “fails to lock in low rates for students next year” and “eliminates safeguards for low-income families.”
Who goes to college? Kids right out of high school, that’s who:
“The parts of the adolescent brain which develop first are those which control physical coordination, emotion and motivation. However, the part of the brain which controls reasoning and impulses - known as the Prefrontal Cortex - is near the front of the brain and, therefore, develops last. This part of the brain does not fully mature until the age of 25.”
One of the effects is: poor planning and judgement (rarely thinking of negative consequences)
Teenbrain.drugfree.org
But we let college kids vote
and drive
and join the army
etc.
join the army
And that’s how loan forgiveness will be obtained. No draft needed. The taxpayers will be on the hook for the inflated cost of college, but they’ll get something for their money. And those with real money won’t have to worry about it.
“And that’s how loan forgiveness will be obtained. No draft needed.”
Several years ago a study indicated that 70% of our draft age 18-25-yr/old cohort couldn’t pass the physical to enter boot camp. Of the remaining 30%, at least 20% had discipline and maturity problems that couldn’t adapt to military life. So, only 10% can carry the proverbial water.
The Atlantic Monthly carried the story, IIRC.
Interesting idea, Carl. Could they use the military as a back-door government jobs program? Get the kids to pay off the loans by digging holes and filling them in? Wash the tanks? IIRC, FDR’s CCC was administered by the military, or at least using military-type organization.
But then, what would all the contractors do?
Could they use the military as a back-door government jobs program?
Yeah, the old fashioned kind. With a gun in their hands. I don’t think they would be replacing contractors in the non shooting jobs. For years it was possible to get student loans forgiven by enlisting, at least in some specialties. Not sure about today. But it would be easy to make it a bigger program.
If the government is going to end up eating the loss anyway…
Wow these people are just now putting two and two together when it comes to crushing student debt and where their future
debt slaveshomeowners are going to come from? Why again do we let these people run our economy? Oh right - they BOUGHT it back in 1913 or so.Thought this funny.
So then why does McDonald’s have salads?
To show government regulators that they have “healthy” alternatives?
To get the first lady off their back?
To use as evidence to fight off future “obesity” lawsuits?
It certainly is NOT to make a profit. Or to sell food.
—————————–
McDonald’s Admits: No One’s Really Buying Our Salads
Consumerist | June 3, 2013
When people accuse McDonald’s of serving food that isn’t nutritionally ideal, they can always point to their salad offerings. See, salads are healthy, and McDonald’s serves salads: therefore, you can eat healthy at McDonald’s, but if consumers choose to eat something else, that’s cool, too. Only the company admitted to investors this weekend that they don’t actually sell a lot of those salads: vegetable-based offerings account for maybe 2-3% of McDonald’s sales in the United States.
So then why does McDonald’s have salads?
So they can pretend to be a restaurant with healthy food options that won’t ’supersize’ you?
Really - does ANYONE believe that?
mcdonalds prices are out of control. 4.19 for a big mac?
The food is terrible.
mcdonalds prices are out of control. 4.19 for a big mac?
In some circles the “Big Mac” is an informal index.
Price reference: I eat low-carb, which is notoriously expensive. My food costs about $10-13/day, depending on how grass-fed and organic the stuff is.
I’m not familiar with McD’s. Would it be hard to rack up $12 in a day with the Value Menu?
Agree. And if you add occasional wine or whiskey, your monthly groceries run close to 500 for one person.
No worries though, you are just helping to boost your country’s gdp.
“mcdonalds prices are out of control. 4.19 for a big mac?
The food is terrible.”
Indeed. So we must ban McDonald’s ASAP. After all, if a liberal doesn’t like something, it must be eradicated.
For the children of course.
i like to go to mcdonald’s occasionally.
and target/wal mart too.
OMG!!
Walmart and McDonald’s!!
You must be one of those Koch Brother loving Faux Noise watching church going gun owning freaks who doesn’t understand the genius of St. Barrack of Chicago. Shame on you sir. Shame on you.
Do people really go through $110 of wine/whiskey a month??
gun owning freaks
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/06/03/Obama-sneaks-arms-trade-treaty
$110 of wine
read the finance sub-forum on d.c. urban moms and you’ll see many spend much more than that
Do people really go through $110 of wine/whiskey a month??
Uhh..does that include beer? Craft beer?
(raises hand)
Michael-
I cannot believe you are lumping Target in with Wal-Mart.
You need to get with the program.
Target is perfectly acceptable. As is that Swedish crap-furniture place…the name of which escapes me. (Talk about crappy and crappy-looking merchandise. Good place for college students).
WalMart is not acceptable. It is frequented by “those” people. If you have ANY self-respect, you’d never be caught dead in Wally World. It’d be sooooo embarrassing!!
IKEA
‘factoring in what taxpayers contribute for public programs, the report estimated that one wal-mart supercenter employing 300 workers could cost taxpayers at least $904,000 annually.’
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/04/news/companies/walmart-medicaid/
IKEA - yeah, that’s the name! Thanks, cactus. Seemingly lots of ugly, low-quality, post-Soviet era crap peddled out of that merchant. Funny that, since Stockholm never was under the Iron Fist.
Good post, goon. No company should be allowed. Not WalMart. Not General Motors. Not Apple. Do you know of a source that provides the same info. for all companies listed on S&P 500? It’d make an interesting read.
MacBeth, here it is for the state of Wisconsin:
http://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/badgercareplus/enrollmentdata/enrolldata.htm
Click on any of the quarterly reports and the Excel file will pop up. Employees is the # of workers, eligible participants include the worker’s dependents. McD’s ain’t doing so hot either. Wal-Mart leads the pack by far, but maybe because they have the most employees overall?
Thanks, oxy. I’ll check it out. Know if there’s a national list? There should be (yes, spoken from a citizen to a federal employee).
You could be right about WalMart having the worst numbers since it has the most employees. That would be a logical starting point, I agree. A per capita/employee view would obviously be even more useful, it such reports exist.
All of this is increasingly ridiculous. Yeah, I know I harp on government waste/ethics problems all the day long (and I will continue) but that doesn’t mean the private economy is any better.
We have a lot of work to do.
Get ready for a continued reference to that below as I really do believe what I am saying:
Government Bubble
Government = Housing
Banking = Government
Medicine = Government
Progressives = Neocons
Monied interests need to be removed from government and vice-versa. Constitutionally. Then new amendments need to be passed that place strict limits on monetary influence in government.
No one is looking out these days for the smallest and most vulnerable minorities in existence: the individual.
Individual liberty is anathema to neocons and progressives who increasingly ensconce themselves in dictatorial positions by circumventing the law whenever
and wherever they can.
A real societal return and respect for ethics and morals is the only way much of this will ever get addressed. No law will be sufficient, as the laws themselves will be ignored as they are now.
You can usually find a 30-pack of Bud for $19. If you drink a six-pack a day that’s roughly $120 a month, not counting sales tax and deposit.
I don’t know how to tell you this, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a peri-menopausal Westside LA housewife whose wine bill is less than $100 a week….
Hope and Change
http://www.picpaste.com/fat-kid-in-mcdonalds-tOkRuNQN.jpg
I hope he’s ordering the salad.
Salads in any restaurant are not healthy. It’s not really a salad since they add so much crap to it to make it tasty. Salads are bland and unappealing and nobody will go pay $12 for a salad at a restaurant to get a tomato and some lettuce. So to justify that $12 the restaurant adds all sorts of ingredients that are chock full of junk.
Look at the calorie content of a restaurant salad vs a burger/fries and it’s not that much different.
Yes We Can
http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/39-of-bagged-salads-have-too-much-fecal-bacteria.html
To counterbalance the mega potato: http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=694c388f-914c-40c8-a4a4-f873ebeb0a9c
They don’t sell because they are overpriced and offer very little in the way of condiments.
Oh, and if you think McD’s isn’t making a profit off those salads, I have a house in LA I’d like to sell you.
fed·er·al
/ˈfed(ə)rəl/
Adjective
Having or relating to a system of government in which several states form a unity but remain independent in internal affairs.
Of, relating to, or denoting the central government as distinguished from the separate units constituting a federation.
Ha ha hahahahahaha. Sorry. I just had to share. I thought this was so funny. Is it just me or does anyone argue the states are still free and independent?
does anyone argue the states are still free and independent?
Does your definition?
Here’s a definition that you might find clearer:
fed·er·al (fdr-l, fdrl)
adj.
1. Of, relating to, or being a form of government in which a union of states recognizes the sovereignty of a central authority while retaining certain residual powers of government.
thefreedictionarydotcom
BTW, what is the source of your definition?
websters…the nation’s founding document.
“Websters” is the nation’s founding document?
does anyone argue the states are still free and independent?
The States are still free and independent enough that the Republicans can stick it to Obama by sticking it to the poorest, sickest and the weakest of their constituents.
States’ Policies on Health Care Exclude Some of the Poorest
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/25/us/states-policies-on-health-care-exclude-poorest.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
The refusal by about half the states to expand Medicaid will leave millions of poor people ineligible for government-subsidized health insurance under President Obama’s health care law even as many others with higher incomes receive federal subsidies to buy insurance. …
…More than half of all people without health insurance live in states that are not planning to expand Medicaid……many people below the poverty line will be unable to get tax credits, Medicaid or other help with health insurance….. many of “the poorest of the poor” would fall into a gap in which no assistance is available.
….adults with incomes from 32 percent to 100 percent of the poverty level ($6,250 to $19,530 for a family of three) “will have no assistance.” They will see advertisements promoting new insurance options, but in most cases will not learn that they are ineligible until they apply.
…consumers might blame President Obama rather than Republicans like Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, who have resisted the expansion of Medicaid.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 25 million people will gain insurance under the new health care law. Researchers at the Urban Institute estimate that 5.7 million uninsured adults with incomes below the poverty level could also gain coverage except that they live in states that are not expanding Medicaid.
…“If the breadwinner in a family of four works full time at a job that pays $14 an hour and the family has no other income, he or she will be eligible for insurance subsidies. But if they make $10 an hour, they will not be eligible for anything.” ……People will be denied assistance because they don’t make enough money. Trying to explain that will be a nightmare.” …..“There will be an outcry,” ….
GOP = Calvinism
even as many others with higher incomes receive federal subsidies to buy insurance
While they complain about government spending.
Keep your government hands off my Medicare!
Anyone have any insights on the Philadelphia suburbs? Area around Wayne / West Chester - have kids so schools are also a factor.
Thanks for any insights.
Claire
Do NOT live in Philly.
Philly suburbs can be excellent. Research property taxes before you buy. Pennsylvania has some of the worst teacher unions in the nation. They strike all the time even when making $100,000+/year and paying nothing for health care.
Pennsylvania and Massachussetts have high taxes. Alabama and Louisiana have low taxes. Choose wisely.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2012/10/28/state-taxes-states-highest-lowest/1654071/
Ala and La. Right next to Miss, they form the inbred rectum of the United States, although I’d rather live in Ala than the other 2 by a long shot.
racis
Yeah - much better to live in Philly, Newark, Chicago, Camden, Cleveland, Detroit or Buffalo.
Q: What is the first thing a public union goon does the day after he retires at age 55 after spiking his pension and claiming disability?
A: Sells his house and moves to a right to work and low tax state.
Funny, I’ve met plenty of “union” retirees still living in their home states after retirement.
“inbred rectum”?
Seems to me there’s more inbreds in the Hamptons, Hollywood and Washington, DC.
More “rectum”, too.
More “rectum”
homophobe
I can’t argue with that, MacBeth.
All too true. I have no love for those places either.
LOL, goon! Tho I might posit that there’s lots and lots of strap-ons being used by straight women in the towns/areas I mentioned above.
Eco, best keep any areas of agreement under our respective hats. Else we may soon be accused of being the same person.
Hark! I hear a song coming on (to be dedicated to our dedicated handful of Thought Police posters):
Every breath you take
Every move you make
I’ll be watching you.
southern white “conservatives” are the new black…err…jew…or whatever.
Q: What is the first thing a public union goon does the day after he retires at age 55 after spiking his pension and claiming disability?
A: Sells his house and moves to a right to work and low tax state.
_______________
And votes straight “D” in order to turn that state into the s**thole state he left behind.
“…Seems to me there’s more inbreds in the Hamptons, Hollywood and Washington, DC….”
LOL. Amen, MacB.
Insight? Into what? Grossly inflated housing prices?
Go to city data .com I think it is. There are geographic specific threads that discuss issues like schools.
Beware of city-data. The forum is crawling with realtors spewing the same old lies and misinformation.
city-data will ban you from the forums if you try to call out their lying realtor lies
If you even mention that housing prices are bubbly, you could be gone.
Try reddit instead of city-data:
http://www.reddit.com/r/philadelphia/
I’m on the other side of the city (Montco/Bucks border). I have insights into that area if you’re interested, but not Wayne/West Chester.
Yours Truly went through most of grade school, and all of middle school and high school in the West Chester Area School District.
Positives: My grade school, Penn Wood Elementary, was smack-dab in the middle of a nature park. Beautiful setting, and it still is.
The high school arts programs, especially in photography and commercial art, formed the basis of how I make my living today.
Negatives: Verbal bullying was out of control, and very little was done about it. Especially if you were bright and female.
There was racial integration on paper, but that was all. In reality, there was very little mingling during the school day. Too bad, because West Chester has a very rich African American and Hispanic culture. Those of other ethnicities would greatly benefit by learning more about it.
I went to entirely integrated schools growing up. While I cannot claim to have any very close friends that are black, I am comfortable around people of other races and have instilled that into my children. One of my classmates is doing a film about our experience with integration. It’s pretty fascinating. It’s through Arroyo Seco Films and the working title is “Can We All Get Along?” If you Google it, you can watch a clip.
See how comfortable you are walking through North Philly at night.
They have night school for children in Philly? That’s, um… ambitious?
Thanks for all the replies. We go where my husband’s job goes, so West Chester area it is!
As to house prices, yes I know they are probably inflated, and we’ll never get our money back, but we are buying it as a home, not an investment. But how inflated can they be compared to where we are now?
We are currently in Mountain View, CA - home of Google, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook - hence 1200 sq ft tear downs on 5000 sq ft are going for $1.3 million - offers are often now $300,000 over asking (and then they tear the houses apart to do them up or add additions and of course the kitchens and bathrooms have to be completely redone) - we have given up on ever getting a house here - our neighborhood has become too desirable - I wonder how it will affect the make-up of the neighborhood?
I wonder how it will affect the make-up of the neighborhood?
More Aho!es. I lived it.
An article on housing, obama corruption, union goons and the IRS.
—————————
Did IRS Target Homebuliders on Behalf of Mobbed-Up Union?
Townhall.com | June 4, 2013 | John Ransom
In the fall of 2011 the National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC) submitted Freedom of Information requests to the Department of Labor and the Internal Revenue Service following an announcement that the administration was investigating homebuilders in an attempt to bolster union membership at the expense of housing sector jobs.
“In a letter [from the Labor Department] cited by The [Wall Street] Journal,” wrote Crain’s Detroit at the time “homebuilders were asked to immediately turn over the names, addresses, Social Security numbers, pay rates and hours worked for all employees over the past two years. The letter from the Labor Department asked for the names of all contractors hired in the past year. The letter didn’t allege any specific violations of law. “
No. It was just the usual harassment that the Obama administration gives anyone when they have a disagreement with a key Obama constituency. The constituency in this case was unions that are all mobbed up. Re-write the rules, send investigators in, bury them in document discovery and government lawyers until they cave.
“The pay rates for construction workers and the subcontractors used by general contractors hired by PulteGroup,” says Crains “is part of a long-term conflict between the homebuilder and unions, in particular the Laborers International Union of North America.”
Oh, so now I get it:
The White House, with the cooperation of several state governments and the Department of Labor, attempted to get the Internal Revenue Service to go after homebuilders. The IRS used supposed violations of independent contractor rules that allow homebuilders to hire independent contractors at a straight hourly wage, without subjecting them to payroll taxes and union membership.
So now we have the Obama administration hooking up the Department of Labor with the IRS to join together union muscle to shakedown homebuilders, mafia style.
Should homebuilders have to pay state workers comp insurance on their contract labor? That’s what this issue is about.
Even here in TX, contractors have pointed out that those of them that do pay workers comp are at a competitive disadvantage. As a result some public projects now require that bidders show compliance with state worker comp insurance.
IRS has nothing to do with the state Workers Comp programs.
Target home builders?
Hahhahahahahahahhaha! They are some of the most corrupt SOBs that ever existed!
(target home builders *snort* gee I wonder why? :roll:)
So like the tea party, they got what they deserved.
I’ve worked for some of the largest home builders in the nation and some small ones as well. They didn’t get HALF of what they deserved.
I’m sorry, but every time I hear someone say that “someone’s getting what they deserve” this comes to mind:
http://www.contactmusic.com/news/boy-george-arrested-on-false-imprisonment-charges_1029494
Hope and Change
“numbers released in May by the CDC show a dramatic spike in suicides among middle-aged people, with the highest increases among men in their 50s, whose rate went up by nearly 50 percent … There are no large-scale studies yet fleshing the reasons behind the increase in boomer suicides. Part of it is likely tied to the recent economic downturn … How did a generation that started out with so much going for it end up so despondent in midlife? It could be that those very advantages made it harder to cope with setbacks … “There was an illusion of choice — where people thought they’d be able to re-create themselves again and again … These people feel a greater sense of disappointment because their expectations of leading glorious lives didn’t come to fruition.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/baby-boomers-are-killing-themselves-at-an-alarming-rate-begging-question-why/2013/06/03/d98acc7a-c41f-11e2-8c3b-0b5e9247e8ca_story.html
ALOT of people live for retirement, it’s the only thing that keeps them going as they trudge to their dreary jobs day after day. Retirement is the replacement for heaven, in our age of agnosticism.
First you take way the idea of heaven, then you take away the idea of retirement, and a lot of people don’t have anything to live for anymore.
you work all your life so you eventually dont have to work?
When you live life as a debt slave, your life truly is only an “illusion of choice”
Unless you are born rich, ever tried living without working for money?
No I haven’t tried that - where do I sign up?
It’s not as easy as it sounds….
Maybe the effects of drug usage as “cool” teens are now causing severe chronic health problems in my age group and they are depressed from that?
One trend I think is emerging is that drug use - prescription or otherwise - leads to depression. Which leads to more drug use. Which leads to more depression. And it spirals down into extreme, suicidal depression.
From the article:
• Turkaly: using painkillers
• Murray: using painkillers
• Strand’s friend: unclear, but painful ankle
Personal experience:
• Friend of mine: alcoholism and previous drug use
• Business associate (didn’t result in suicide but close): drug use
There’s something about chronic pain too. Pushpinder Singh, a rising star at MIT, killed himself after suffering chronic back pain:
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/people/magazine/16-02/ff_aimystery?currentPage=all
Chronic pain. Drug use (alcohol, pain killers, other). Big warning signs.
Brains are funny things. When you try to take away something they really like (like opioids) they can actually create real pain to convince you that you must take more. If you can’t afford high end care like Rush Limbaugh, you’re in a world of hurt that feels like it’s never going to end.
Lack of exercise might be part of the depression/suicide issue. I had a period in my life where I wasn’t getting enough physical activity, and got pretty (non-clinically) depressed. It didn’t take long to turn it around once I realised what I was doing wrong.
Drug use is one factor, but by far the biggest problem is nutrition and exercise.
Where I live there are very few public parks, pools or natural recreational areas. Obesity, depression and anger are rampant.
so what’s keeping you chained to that utopia?
No one has yet offered a better job somewhere else.
The main reason suicides are up is because the social contract has been broken, and it takes until you are about 50 to comprehend that fact and really feel the results. This is not rocket science and it is not just in America.
Economic downturn cited as suicide rate jumps for those between 35 and 64
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/economy-cited-suicide-jumps-article-1.1333847
The Great Recession may have been at the root of a great depression that caused suicides to soar among middle-aged Americans, a government report speculates.
… “Most people who commit suicide tend to suffer from major depression, and this vulnerability tends to be brought forth by very stressful situations like losing one’s home or job,”
U.K.’s broken social contract blamed for riots
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/08/12/uk-immigrants.html
The spark that lit riots in Britain last week is rooted in the government’s radical alteration of the social contract with its citizens, says a Toronto psychiatrist who was born and raised in the U.K.
People at the lower margins of society feel abandoned and powerless to the point where they lash out in fear…..
Increasingly in Europe, Suicides ‘by Economic Crisis’
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/europe/increasingly-in-europe-suicides-by-economic-crisis.html?pagewanted=all
The economic downturn that has shaken Europe for the last three years has also swept away the foundations of once-sturdy lives, leading to an alarming spike in suicide rates. Especially in the most fragile nations like Greece, Ireland and Italy, small-business owners and entrepreneurs are increasingly taking their own lives in a phenomenon some European newspapers have started calling “suicide by economic crisis.”
Mired in financial troubles, Italian couple commits suicide
By Livia Borghese. Greg Botelho and Pierre Meilhan, CNN
April 6, 2013 — Updated 1353 GMT (2153 HKT)
Price of a Broken Social Contract ; South Korea Suicide Rate for the Elderly Is Among the Highest in the World
http://news-business.vlex.com/vid/social-south-korea-suicide-rate-among-425231930
The woman, a widow who had been living alone, had been receiving a welfare stipend until July, when the city government learned that her long-unemployed son-in-law had found a job at a shipyard. Officials ignored her appeals that she could no longer afford to pay her rent, citing regulations that deny welfare to people whose adult children are deemed capable of supporting them.”How can you do this to me?”
How a broken social contract sparked Bahrain protests
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0221/How-a-broken-social-contract-sparked-Bahrain-protests
The Bahrain protests go beyond the sectarian prism of Sunni versus Shiite. The ruling Al Khalifa family has been unable to provide Bahrainis the kind of interest-free loans and medical care that some of their neighbors have enjoyed.
Man, you really gotta stop with the critical thinking. You’re going to blow the board’s brains open.
Let theme eat cake!
You can call it a broken social contract, but mass unemployment is a simpler explanation. When a person loses a job they lose paycheck, but they also lose a part of their identity. Think about it. What’s one of the first questions you ask someone when you meet in a social setting? You ask him what he does for a living. Our work defines who we are to a great degree.
It’s probably not a coincidence that we use the same word - depression - to describe an economy with very high unemployment and the brain disease that causes a person to want to end his life.
You can call it a broken social contract, but mass unemployment is a simpler explanation.
It is a simpler explanation but I think the mass unemployment is caused by the breaking of the social contract. I also don’t think the breaking of the social contract was totally intentional as many supply-side “true believers” were true believers that a rising tide would lift all boats. But it did not. The experiment failed for all but the rich.
But the obligations of the social contract remain even though the trickle-down did not work. It is my opinion that we will never need as many jobs as we did in the past. Why? Because capitalism is succeeding at what it does - becoming more efficient and one aspect of that is fewer jobs. But the social contract remains.
So the big question is, what can governments, businesses and the people do to maintain the social contract while capitalism is eliminating a most important part of this contract - our jobs?
“So the big question is, what can governments, businesses and the people do to maintain the social contract while capitalism is eliminating a most important part of this contract - our jobs?”
Wrong question.
The question is “how can govt get out of the way and allow capitalism to once again flourish, thereby creating jobs for people?”
The question is “how can govt get out of the way and allow capitalism to once again flourish, thereby creating jobs for people?”
Bunk. We tried that since 1980. It failed American citizens. We deregulated ourselves to our demise.
The biggest example of “the government getting out of the way” was the deregulating of our trade barriers. “Free-Trade” NAFTA, and GATT was the perfect and classic example of the “government getting out of the way”. It killed us.
Gutting the banking regulations killed us. We tried “government getting out of the way” and it made the rich richer and shafted anyone else.
I like to simplify it even more. GREED. Greed has ruined this country. There is no turning back. May the greedy die miserable deaths.
I notice our favorite troll never responds to well reasoned discourse backed up by facts as displayed in your post here Rio. Unfortunately, I have met people who are like this in real life - parroting talking points, accusing anyone with differing information or opinions of social/comm/whatever ism, but never actually taking the time to question anything they’re told by the pastor and the neo-con talking heads. God forbid we should try to come up with a workable solution.
Here’s a hint: CORRUPTION and COLLUSION are NOT the same thing as a free market.
“When a person loses a job they lose paycheck, but they also lose a part of their identity.”
This, and the loss of status that comes from losing a job Many men, especially those raised before women entered the workforce in droves in the early 1970s, were taught as children that they should be the primary breadwinner. For a lot of men, work is also their primary social connection.
On top of that, getting old sucks - presbyopia, tinnitus, joint issues, sleeping poorly, digestive problems. And that’s if your healthy. You know that you can take corrective action for some of the problems, but you can no longer deny the inevitable. If you are lucky enough that your parents are still alive, you can see your future. You can see the inevitable decline in capacity, mental and physical.
Then you wonder if you will have to drain your savings to pay for some medical bombshell and if Social Security will be there when you really need it and, if you were lucky enough to get a pension, if the company will go bankrupt cutting your pension in half at best.
It doesn’t surprise me that some choose suicide. You have to have a real zest for life to overcome the double and triple whammies that some people get hit with.
It’s certainly the cheaper alternative.
It ain’t easy being a crone….:-)
Hmmm….
A retiree in a Pittsburgh suburb living on disability checks, he was estranged from friends and family, mired in credit card debt and taking medication for depression, cholesterol, diabetes and high blood pressure.
The economy was thriving, and as they came of age, boomers embraced new ways of living — as civil rights activists, as hippies, as feminists, as war protesters.
Find some productive work to do - work that actually MAKES or CREATES something (hint: Civil rights activists, hippies, feminists and war protesters are not productive work).
Go to church
Have a family. Have kids. Get involved with your community.
STAY OUT OF DEBT.
Stay in shape. East right.
Life is just not about YOU.
That’s racist.
hippies suck
Go to church <— what does this “produce?”
Get involved with community <— isn’t this community organizing?
Go to church <— what does this “produce?”
It produces humility and gives you a moral compass for your tool box. Whether you use it or not is on you.
Get involved with community <— isn’t this community organizing?
Volunteering to build a new playground or coach little league is not the same as organizing your “community” to get more free cheese or to get the correctly pigmented person elected.
But you already knew that.
It produces humility and gives you a moral compass for your tool box. Whether you use it or not is on you.
Perhaps, but I’ve just as often seen it used to justify all sorts of morally reprehensible behavior, especially under the guise of the so-called “prosperity gospel.” Bonus: Jesus will forgive anything so there’s none of that pesky conscience stuff to worry about.
Civil rights activism is THE most important work anyone can do.
Without your civil rights, nothing else will happen. Nothing.
Those occupiers need to “occupy” a shower and get a job!
Civil Rights in 2013 = More cheese for the free sh*t army!
That’s just some lame trolling, there.
What is civil rights for 2013 then? There is no law in this country that allows discrimination based on racial minority status. What’s the fight for now if not more govt cheese?
You are not seriously asking that question? If so, you are part of the problem?
Bill of Rights? Maybe you’ve heard of them? I can tell you for a fact the 4th is dead. The 1st is almost dead. The 5th was killed by war on drugs.
Go read the rest and decide for yourself. The 2nd is alive and well, believe it or not. Anyone without a felony can buy a gun instantly if they have the money.
THAT contrived controversy is to distract you from the losses of the others.
This.
Oh, and please don’t feed the troll.
Civil Rights in 2013 = More cheese for the free sh*t army!
If you’ve been following the news, you should have noticed that one of the of the major civil rights issues in 2013 is the whole gay marriage thing. Oppose it if you wish, but there is noe demande for free cheese involved.
What is civil rights for 2013 then? There is no law in this country that allows discrimination based on racial minority status.
In some cases, securing civil rights involves getting people in power to follow those laws. This was just in the paper yesterday:
Blacks Are Singled Out for Marijuana Arrests, Federal Data Suggests
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/04/us/marijuana-arrests-four-times-as-likely-for-blacks.html?_r=0
By IAN URBINA
Published: June 3, 2013
WASHINGTON — Black Americans were nearly four times as likely as whites to be arrested on charges of marijuana possession in 2010, even though the two groups used the drug at similar rates, according to new federal data.
‘Bill of Rights? Maybe you’ve heard of them?’
Interesting how the Obama posters revert to principle after they were forced to realize the current president is a Nixon/George W Bush clone. Oh well, don’t take it so hard. This country can probably make it through two or three more such fascist, corporate-owned warmongers before there is nothing left of our rights/wealth.
And this is a reason to eschew civil rights activism?
I knew 2 people in recent years in their late 40s who committed suicide. 1 was drug use (painkillers for a long-time injury) the other gunshot (depressed over wife dying of cancer a year prior).
the other gunshot
Having a gun around the house makes it way easier to commit suicide (or murder) in a moment of blind rage or depression, that might otherwise have passed if you had to hang yourself or sit in the car in the garage, or some such more elaborate and time-consuming method of killing yourself (or another).
Something to think about if you have teenage kids, too.
Which explains why Japan (where guns are banned) has a much higher suicide rate than America.
Sorry - do not pass go or collect $200 with your democrat talking points.
The Japanese have a cultural thing for suicide.
Seppuku
“The Japanese have a cultural thing for suicide.”
Comment of the week!
Good point 2bananna.
One thing I like to point out about the second amendment is what Jefferson said in his memoirs about it.
I’m paraphrasing, but the right of ordinary citizens to bear arms has (and had) little to do with personal protection, food acquisition, or protecting yourself from an oppressive regime.
What it had to do with was engendering the citizenry with the understanding that they DO NOT NEED the government to provide for these things, and the independent spirit that comes with that.
This mode of thinking is critical for a self-governing people, and the realization that you don’t need a representative of the government to protect your self and family.
Amen, Biggs.
Consider also that governmental officials are likely to think twice before taking undue advantage of those populations they know to be armed.
Suicides? Riots? Shattered lives? I wonder why.
OECD: “The Social Contract is Unravelling”
December 12, 2011
The Social Contract Has Been Broken
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/12/oecd-the-social-contract-is-unravelling.html
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is one of the world’s most prestigious economic organizations. An international economic organization of 34 countries, the OECD was founded in 1948 to administer the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after World War II, and then reformulated in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade.
So it is dramatic that the head of the OECD said last week that the social contract is unravelling:
Trickle down theory is dead. The belief fostered by Ronald Reagan in the U.S. and Margaret Thatcher in the U.K. in the 1980s, that if the rich got richer, their income and wealth would trickle down the income scale so that a rising tide lifted all the boats, has had the last rites pronounced on it – by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Its report “Divided We Stand” published on Monday highlights how income inequality is rising almost everywhere in the developed world…..
Middle-class incomes are down radically in the U.S. since 2007, as much as 15 percent according to new Internal Revenue Service data. Home equity is still falling. If cherished entitlement programs are also savaged by the politicians who destroyed our life savings, citizens might begin to question whether this whole constitutional democracy thing is worth it.
And here’s the money quote on the broken social contract from the OECD article posted above:
…..And economist Michael Hudson says that the powers-that-be are trying to revoke the social contract altogether, to make us into debt peons and to exert feudal power over our lives:
You have to realize that what they’re trying to do is to roll back the Enlightenment, roll back the moral philosophy and social values of classical political economy and its culmination in Progressive Era legislation, as well as the New Deal institutions. They’re not trying to make the economy more equal, and they’re not trying to share power. Their greed is (as Aristotle noted) infinite.
So what you find to be a violation of traditional values is a re-assertion of pre-industrial, feudal values. The economy is being set back on the road to debt peonage. The Road to Serfdom is not government sponsorship of economic progress and rising living standards, it’s the dismantling of government, the dissolution of regulatory agencies, to create a new feudal-type elite.”
So what you find to be a violation of traditional values is a re-assertion of pre-industrial, feudal values. The economy is being set back on the road to debt peonage. The Road to Serfdom is not government sponsorship of economic progress and rising living standards, it’s the dismantling of government, the dissolution of regulatory agencies, to create a new feudal-type elite.”
Sounds like a pretty good summary to me.
Quick - grow government, raise taxes and ban something.
It will surely work this time.
Problem:
what you find to be a violation of traditional values is a re-assertion of pre-industrial, feudal values
Proposed solution:
Quick - grow government, raise taxes and ban something.
1. Why would solving the problem necessarily “grow government”?
Was our government not smaller before the problem above?
2. Taxes on capital, wealth, billionaires, and big business are at an all time low. Don’t you think that has contributed to, and is the result of the problem of the “violation of traditional values is a re-assertion of pre-industrial, feudal values??
Who in fact are you defending here? It seems to me you are defending the makers of the problem. You are defending the makers of the problem because they’ve gotten you all riled up about “free cheese” and “union goons” as a manipulation to get you to defend their un-American breaking of the American social contract. Or at least they’ve manipulated many on the right to give them a free pass.
You are not defending the American people on this issue and this is the main issue of our era.
Why does 2bananna hate America?
Trickle down theory is dead.
Oh no, trickle down works perfectly and is alive and well.
After all, it IS JUST A TRICKLE.
it IS JUST A TRICKLE.
LOL. I guess we can’t say they didn’t warn us.
That’s what kills me. They told us up front they were going to screw us and people must have heard “manna from heaven” instead of “miniscule amount”.
Or maybe they heard “treacle”. I would almost bet they did. Seriously.
You can’t fix our kind of stupid.
“There is no society” - Margaret Thatcher
I’m in.
But the free cheese people wanted to believe.
Only bigger and bigger government and higher and higher taxes can solve our problems.
————————
5 Lies the Democrats Told To Sell Obamacare (Only 5?)
Townhall.com | June 4, 2013 | John Hawkins
1) Obamacare will cut the cost of your health care.
2) Obamacare will not increase the deficit.
Obamacare will increase the long-term federal deficit by $6.2 trillion, according to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released today.
President Obama and other Democrats attempted to win support for the health-care bill by touting it as a fiscally responsible enterprise. “I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits — either now or in the future,” Obama told a joint-session of Congress in September 2009. “I will not sign it if it adds one dime to the deficit, now or in the future, period.”
3) “If you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. Period.”
4) Obamacare will create jobs. That would be true if you added “…at the IRS” to the end of it, but companies have already begun to move millions of workers from full to part time to avoid punitive new costs under Obamacare.
5) If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep it.
Obamacare hasn’t fully taken effect yet, but when it does, it’s only going to get worse. Everything from death panels to unimaginably long waits for surgeries to bureaucrats denying effective, relatively common, currently in use treatments because they are “too expensive” are all coming down the pike. Obamacare is too much of a disaster to truly fix; so the best thing we can do right now is let this nightmare become reality, let people see how bad it is and then insist on a repeal or bust. Either the Democrats live with the disaster they’ve inflicted on the American people at the ballot box long term or they do the right thing and allow us to repeal this monstrosity before it does even more damage to our country.
“Only bigger and bigger government and higher and higher taxes can solve our problems” number one phrase to win the heart of Rio in brazil
“Only bigger and bigger government and higher and higher taxes can solve our problems” number one phrase to win the heart of Rio in brazil
Funny. I live the libertarian life that you dream of. I’ve never had a boss. I’ve owned my own businesses. I am self-employed. I’ve woken up to an alarm clock maybe 100 times in the past 25 years. I’ve lived exactly where I’ve wanted to for the past 25 years. I have no debt. I own my house free n clear. I made all my money myself.
Unlike you, I’ve never worked for the government that you hate. I’ve never been paid taxpayer money that you take. I don’t work for America’s imperialistic military complex and I don’t profit from its carnage as you do.
And I don’t spout false assertions and empty platitudes that conflict with the reality of the life that I actually lead.
I also understand the history values and traditions of my country (America) much better than you do. Your warped idea of America is some kind of a perverse version of Ronald Reagan and Ayn Rand’s bastard child sent to be raised in a foster home. Which is in fact, what America is living right now.
(Other than that….you rock)
I’m in pretty much the same situation, and always have been. I’m that bootstrappy guy that makes his money independently and has never taken a dime from the government. Yet there’s always some loudmouthed lardass that has spent his whole life working for the government because he doesn’t have the skills to do anything else, who will call me a socialist for daring to suggest that people shouldn’t be allowed to starve in the streets, and then immediately turn around and brag about his sweet pension when he realizes I make 4X what he does.
Some kind of defensive reaction to their obvious inferiority, I guess.
Ditto, Rio. Ironic, huh?
I pay $427 a month for my plan right now. I like my plan. It’s a high deductible HSA family plan.
According to the O-0care estimator, the lowest plan I will be able to buy in the exchanges will cost $9,333 a year or $777 a month.
Now that plan will probably have more services than my current plan. But I don’t want those services. And it won’t be an HSA plan meaning all my out of pocket expenses will no longer be tax deductible.
In essence it will be about a $5000 tax increase for me.
What I think I will do is not get any insurance. The fine (or tax as John Roberts calls it) will be $2000. That saves me $7,333 which is more than enough to cover routine medical expenses in a year. If anything major happens, I’ll call up Aetna and get on a plan as needed. Since there is no restriction on per-existing conditions, I can’t be denied coverage and there will be no wait period either.
It’s a viable strategy. This might be useful info for you.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/13/readers-ask-we-answer-what-happens-if-you-dont-pay-obamacares-tax-penalty/
Damn right they are lies, because health care costs weren’t rising at double digit percentages year after with higher deductibles and denial of care after a first claim or pre-existing conditions!
Oh wait…
On what planet is there a denial of care after a first claim? You do realize insurance companies would go out of business if they kicked everyone who made a claim off their policies, right? Well no you don’t since you, like most Obamacare proponents have no clue how insurance works.
Google it. Beyond my anecdotal experiences, there are thousands of documented instances.
He didn’t say they were kicked off, just denied. There is a difference.
Are you freaking kidding, Smithers? Try getting sick. Go on, just try it….
ROTFLMAO.
wall street journal - more doctors broach subject of women’s age and fertility:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324682204578517683273638050.html
Intro of the film “Idiocracy”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icmRCixQrx8
Just watched that movie on your recommendation. I never heard of it. It was scary and funny all at the same time.
The ending is a little weak but nobody caricatures stupid like Mike Judge.
You talk like a fag and your $h*t’s all retarded.
That future has already arrived.
Hope and Change
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/06/03/what-are-fathers-for
26% Of All Housing Sales In California Resulted In A Loss For Sellers
http://picpaste.com/pics/a1077ea0bd452d09d90cb060c7c05b55.1370283098.png
Housing is always a loss anyways so this is no real surprise.
So 74% of sellers broke even or made money?
Houses depreciate, ALWAYS.
And yet 74% of Californians selling their houses either broke even or made money.
Just goes to show, ‘depreciate’ doesn’t mean what alot of people think it means!
Even if a house does “depreciate” you can still sell for a “profit”. What the HBB always forgets is that a mortgage pays down principal over time.
Buy a house for $300K. Value goes to $250K. You’ve lost $50K. Not really. If during that time you’ve paid down the principal to $200K, you walk away with $50K “profit”. And at 3% interest, that principal gets paid down fast.
If you were to rent during that time and pay the same monthly rent as you would pay a mortgage, you’d walk away with $0 in your pocket.
and pay the same monthly rent as you would pay a mortgage
Big AND.
If you were to rent during that time and pay the same monthly rent as you would pay a mortgage, you’d walk away with $0 in your pocket.
Nope. Not true. You could be saving all the money that you’d have to put into taxes and maintenance and higher utility bills, etc. It wouldn’t be $0. And using your logic, do we just conveniently forget about the downpayment put on the house (that is gone)? Because if so, sure that works. But if I put a downpayment down (which I should have), that’d be gonzo. Unless I was renting. Then I’d still have it.
Why does owning mean higher utility bills? I’m comparing like houses. And my mortgage payment includes taxes and it’s still the same as what I’d pay to rent a like house.
The down payment is still equity in my example too. It doesn’t go anywhere. $300K house. Put 20% down. That’s a $240K mortgage. Pay off $50K in X years. Balance is $190K. You sell for $250K. On paper you’ve lost $50K. In reality you walk away with $60K. As a renter you don’t put anything down, you pay rent for X years. At the end of X years you walk away with nothing.
I left out the tax deduction which would make the calculation that much more favorable to owning. I save about $4500 in federal income tax every year because I own vs. rent. There’s no state income tax where I live but in the 43 states that do have state income tax, throw in another $1000 to $2000 savings on that.
My point is with 3% interest rates, even in a down market, principal payoff is as fast or in some cases even faster than the depreciation of the house.
Ugh..cut myself off….so the $60K you put down is yours in the end. You’re no better or worse off than renting during the period of X years. You are better off though since
a) the tax deduction over X years will add up
b) chances are rents over X years will have risen while your mortgage payment hasn’t
c) you have the upside potential of the house appreciating over X years. It’s a low risk proposition that even if the house depreciates, you’re no worse off than renting.
And again this is with the incredibly low interest rates we have now. At 7% or 8% this goes right out the window and the slightest drop in value means a real loss.
Houses depreciate, ALWAYS. (unless they don’t)
But even then, they still depreciate because they always do (except when they don’t) and even then, they kind of don’t 74% of the time (which is off-set by the 26% of the time that they do depreciate.)
This can bee seen by the fact that the White House itself could be built for around $50 per square foot as it is possible to buy lots in Virginia or Maryland for around $5,000 and my brother can get contractor rates on materials.
Houses depreciate ALWAYS like ALL manmade and manufactured items.
When I was in college, I got lucky 26% of the time.
But I always got lucky so getting lucky 26% of the time was no surprise.
jeez
How could this happen?
Only companies with massive government subsidies, bailouts and conforming to the political pressures of the day can be winners.
Only “loosers” design products/services that people actually want.
————————————-
Nissan Leaf races ahead of Chevy Volt in May
Christian Science Monitor | June 3, 2013 | By David J. Unger
Nissan sold 2,138 Leafs in May, up 319 percent over last year. In March, the company sold a record 2,236 units of its all-electric vehicle.
General Motors sold 1,607 Volts in May, down 4.3 percent from a year ago. In the first five months of 2013, the company sold only 100 more Volts than during the same period last year.
Wait, you mean the average American doesn’t want a piece of garbage, Detroit union made car that catches on fire?
That’s weird. Must be racism involved.
Aside from rental car agencies, does anyone actually buy GM products anymore? I can’t think of anyone I know that owns a GM.
The Corvette.
Somehow - GM has not managed to screw that one up. Niche market and expensive - but well made and people love it.
The Corvette.
Somehow - GM has not managed to screw that one up. Niche market and expensive - but well made and people love it.
You still have to put up with the GM interior but the bang for the buck is undeniable. I prefer 4 doors and AWD on the street, but a Vette makes a great track/high speed fun car for 1-2 people. At the dragstrip/stoplight on street tires they still get pwned by pretty much everything with AWD.
Domestics last just as long as imports these days. The trick is finding one you want. It’s a great time to be a muscle car fan if that’s your thing. The standard sedans are still awfully boring, though. I was really surprised that my boss bought a Chevy Cruze. This is a guy with plenty of money, but isn’t a car guy. We asked him what he was thinking and he said since he has to rent them all the time, it’s just easier this way :-).
Yeah - because a Honda Accord = Chevrolet Cobalt
Hint: Stay away from obamamotors.
———————
The Best of the best list guides you to the 2001 to 2010 models that scored well in our road tests when new and have been consistently reliable over time. Each has achieved multiple years of above-average used-car verdicts (available to subscribers), indicating that owners have had relatively few problems.
Models built by Toyota and Honda dominate the list once again, and many of the best used vehicles are from Asian manufacturers.
The Worst of the worst list shows models that have had multiple years of below-average reliability in our survey. It is dominated by vehicles from domestic and European manufacturers, primarily General Motors, which had 16 of the 29 models listed.
http://editorial.autos.msn.com/listarticle.aspx?cp-documentid=1184722
But irony of ironies, Asian quality is due to an American whose ideas were rejected by Detroit.
You do know Japanese car mfger have very strong unions, right?
And their quality control was developed by an American? Right?
There is a HUGE difference in Japanese Unions and American Union Goons (AUG).
But you already knew that - didn’t you.
Here is a hint. One union understands that if they make crap and have no work ethic or don’t give a damn - they won’t have any jobs. That strikes are hugely disruptive and are to be avoided at all costs.
The other union thinks that supporting solely one political party for bigger and bigger government, with higher and higher taxes, more and more illegals and more and more regulations will make their union stronger.
And yes - Deming was a great man and American industry ignored him after WWII was over.
You bet there is a huge difference. Japanese unions are paid and treated better and work in more modern factories.
Aside from rental car agencies, does anyone actually buy GM products anymore? I can’t think of anyone I know that owns a GM.
Somebody must be buying them. If only rental car agencies bought GM products, you would’ve heard about it somewhere.
does anyone actually buy GM products anymore?
You tell me. And you should not bash your country’s workers or products. Especially for your cut-throat, profit-above-all, corrosive philosophy that has done much to destroy America. It makes you sound like an ingrate in regards to your people and your nation.
Cadillac: An American Luxemobile Comes Roaring Back
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/cadillac-american-luxemobile-comes-roaring-back-213405454.html
General Motors (GM) announced that its Cadillac division sold nearly 14,000 vehicles in the United States in May, a 40% increase from the same month in 2012. So far this year, Cadillac sales are up 38% — the biggest annualized gain since 1976…..
Chrysler Joins Ford in Beating May U.S. Sales Estimates
By Craig Trudell - Jun 3, 2013 5:15 PM GMT-0300
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-03/chrysler-u-s-sales-rise-in-may-helped-by-ram-pickups.html
Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler Group LLC reported U.S. sales gains that exceeded analysts’ estimates as surging demand for F-Series and Ram pickups pace the industry’s best year since 2007.
Deliveries of cars and light trucks climbed 14 percent for Ford and 11 percent for Chrysler, according to company statements. Nissan Motor Co. (7201) sales rose 25 percent, also beating analysts’ estimates. General Motors Co. deliveries increased 3.1 percent, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203)’s gained 2.5 percent and Honda Motor Co. rose 4.5 percent, all less than analysts had estimated.
“You tell me. And you should not bash your country’s workers or products. ”
Why not? If the products are garbage, I’ll bash them. If the workers are inefficient lazy drunks, I’ll bash them. Not all American products are and not all American workers are. In the case of GM/UAW they both are.
If people are stupid enough to pay $50K for a Cadillac instead of a Lexus or BMW, all the power to them. That’s what makes this country great. People have the right to be stupid with their money.
Consumer Reports Most Reliable Cars 2012
Wagons - Toyota Venza
Compact P/U - Toyota Tacoma
Large SUV - Toyota Sequoia
Small Car - Subaru Impreza
Small hatchback - Scion xD (Scion is Toyota)
Small SUV - Mazda CX5
Coupe/Convertible - Lexus IS C
Upscale small SUV - Infiniti EX
Luxury SUV - Lexus RX
Compact sport sedan - BMW 328i
Upscale car - Nissan Maxima
Sporty car - Nissan 370Z
Minivan - Toyota Sienna
Full-size pickup - Toyota Tundra (V8 2WD)
Family car - Toyota Camry Hybrid
MISSING FROM THE LIST:
Any mention of Detroit junk built by UAW thugs. Nada. Zip. Zilch. And that’s for a very simple reason. Union made junk from Detroit is junk. End of story.
Why not? If the products are garbage, I’ll bash them.
The UAW products are not garbage. In 2010 American cars led the Asians. Now it’s back and forth. 25 years ago we were not even close. Now we are, and many times we are better. And cheaper to fix and insure. And American.
You are eddie right? - A right-wing hack who would insult an entire imporved industry essential to America’s industrial base just because of a union aspect. Or because Obama was involved in a bailout begun by Bush? Pathetic.
U.S. Automakers Surpass Imports in Quality Survey
June 17, 2010 AP
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2010/06/17/automakers-surpass-imports-quality-survey/
WASHINGTON - U.S. automakers have surpassed foreign brands for the first time in a survey that measures the quality of new cars and trucks.
J.D. Power and Associates said Thursday that owners of vehicles made by Detroit automakers reported fewer problems on average during the first 90 days of ownership than those built by companies based overseas.
It was the first time that has happened in the 24 years the industry research group has conducted the annual quality study that is a closely watched measure of the durability and reliability of vehicles.
End of story.
uhmmm…not quite. USA cars/trucks led big 2010 and many still lead today:
JD Power 2012 Initial Quality Study - Car Ratings & Rankings
Large Car
2012 Ford Taurus
Large Crossover SUV
2012 Ford Expedition
Large Pickup
2012 GMC Sierra LD
Large Premium Crossover SUV
2012 CADILLAC ESCALADE
Midsize Car
2012 Chevrolet Malibu
Midsize Crossover SUV
2012 Buick Enclave
Midsize Sporty
2012 Ford Mustang
“The UAW products are not garbage. In 2010 American cars led the Asians. Now it’s back and forth.”
LOL. See my post above. Not 1 American car got a most reliable award. Not a single model. UAW stands for U Aint Working and it has never been more obvious.
100% of JD Power CEO politucal contributions have gone to Democrats. And amazingly enough his company now says the Obama owned GM makes good cars.
The non-profit Consumer Reports says GM is junk.
Hmmmm, who should I believe in this case? I wonder……
Welcome to the HBB.
Otherwise take your dick measuring contest over to autozone.com
“J.D. Power and Associates said Thursday that owners of vehicles made by Detroit automakers reported fewer problems on average during the first 90 days of ownership than those built by companies based overseas.”
The key thing with the survey is the 90 day thing. Generally cars have few problems in this timeframe and they all get fixed anyway. The real test is over the long hall, and thus far North American cars have been generally poor. A 5 year old GM will have as many or more problems as a 10 year old Toyota. Maybe the North American brands have gotten their act together, but it’ll be another decade before we know.
The real test is over the long hall, and thus far North American cars have been… fair, pretty good, great and the best.
Buick, Jaguar dethrone Lexus in J.D. Power reliability study
Buick and Jaguar, two brands not always top of mind in car buyers’ perceptions of quality, tied for first place in the 2009 Vehicle Dependability Study by J.D. Power & Associates — knocking off Lexus, which had held or shared the top spot for 14 years.
Ford Fusion’s Long-Term Reliability Gets JD Power & Associates Seal of Approval As GCC Sales Shoot up 64%
2010 Motor Trend Car of The Year
2010 Most Appealing Mid-size Car, JD Power & Associates
2010 Best Redesigned Vehicle by kbb.com
Highest Rating in Overall Initial Quality, JD Power & Associates
Best long-term durability, Midsize Car segment, JD Power & Associates 2011 VDS
Reliability History for Buick Enclave by Identifix
http://www.edmunds.com/buick/enclave/2013/reliability.html
2008 2009 Long term reliability :Overall 5 stars rated in 2013
Car of the Year Finalists: 2013 Ford Fusion, Cadillac ATS, Honda Accord
http://www.edmunds.com/car-news/car-of-the-year-finalists-2013-ford-fusion-cadillac-ats-honda-accord.html
The 2013 Ford Fusion, Cadillac ATS and Honda Accord were picked as finalists on Wednesday for the 2013 North American Car of the Year.
The 2013 North American Truck/Utility finalists are the 2013 Ford C-Max, Mazda CX-5 and Ram 1500.
If you want to really see what people think about cars as they age, check resale values not journalist surveys. And 4 or 5 years is not long term. As I said, some of the North American cars might prove themselves, but they haven’t yet. I remember all the hype around how great the ford focus was going to be, and it didn’t live up.
If you want to really see what people think about cars as they age, check resale values
True, but part of that resale value is image, style and past reputation. Many times, especially when it comes to brand names, those issues taken together, outweigh innate quality.
5 years ago, a used 4 year old Buick would go for about 30-40% less than a used Honda or Toyota whereas the Buick scored just as high in quality and reliability. Style and image? Not so much.
Only companies with massive government subsidies, bailouts and conforming to the political pressures of the day can be winners.
Only “loosers” design products/services that people actually want.
————————————-
Nissan Leaf races ahead of Chevy Volt in May
Did you look into this at all? Do you know for a fact that Nissan has never received subsidies, loans, etc. from the Japanese government?
Every single heavy industry in Japan has close government financial connections.
Well, except for all their workers’ health care plans.
Uh Nissan got a lot of money from our gov to build the Nissan Leaf 1.4 billion so what’s your point. They got much more than Tesla 450 million, yet U bad mouths GM and Tesla.
The value of the Japanese currency has recently crashed and Japanese companies and state pay almost 0% on money they borrow due to their QE.
Your article quotes May only that’s interesting
GM sold 23,461 Volts in 2012 compared with just 7,671 in 2011. While it’s an impressive jump, the Volt is still one of Chevy’s lowest-selling cars. However, the Volt greatly outdid the Corvette, for instance, of which only 14,000 were sold last year.
Its 2012 sales also put the Volt well ahead of its nearest competitor, the Nissan Leaf. Nissan sold about 9,800 Leafs in 2012, an increase of just 1.5% over 2011
Why did Nissans sales increase
Nissan Motor Co.’s U.S. sales surged 25 percent in May, triple the industrywide gain, after cutting prices and increasing incentives.
buy some stock today and get fleeced tomorrow?
If the gains look to good to be true they simply wont last.
A house of cards only lasts so long. Dont get caught holding the bag again.
Not to worry…the sheep who normally get sheered by purchasing stocks in the wake of a big runup are still too broke in the wake of the Fall 2008 fleecing to be at risk of another just yet. So it’s mainly people with more money than they know what to do with who are at risk this go-round…
Its odd that all these people with money still buy stocks on margin. I guess leverage works good on the way up.
You just have to be in the casino one way or another to have a shot.
Featured Stories
Monday, Jun. 03, 2013
Rising mortgage rates a good sign for valley?
By J.N. Sbranti
jnsbranti@modbee.com
CENTRAL VALLEY — The days of ultra-cheap U.S. mortgages may be ending, but economists say that’s unlikely to slow the housing market — and indeed reflects growing confidence that the recovery is real.
Last week, the national average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 3.81 percent, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said in a news release. That’s the highest it has been in a year, and almost half a percentage point higher than the average of 3.35 percent at the beginning of May.
The uptick needs to be kept in perspective, Freddie Mac cautioned. Loan rates still are historically low, making homes more affordable and boosting sales and construction.
In Stanislaus County, for example, the rate bump will cost the typical home buyer about $46 more per month, calculated Oakdale mortgage broker John Nelson.
While it sounds bad to have interest rates jump by half a percentage point in one week, Nelson said mortgage rates remain well less than normal.
A median-priced $162,000 Stanislaus home with a Federal Housing Administration-backed mortgage last week would have cost a home buyer about $1,141 per month. With the new rate, that home would cost about $1,187 per month, including mortgage interest, loan principal, tax and insurance payments.
The difference is only “about the cost of going out for a pizza dinner with the family,” said Nelson, who manages the Oakdale branch of Mega-Star Financial Corp.
Nelson expects interest rates to continue inching up into the high-4 percent range by the end of the year.
…
Pizzas cost $46 in Stanislaus?
Mission Accomplished:
“Since the American-led invasion of 2003, Iraq has become one of the world’s top oil producers, and China is now its biggest customer.
“The Chinese are the biggest beneficiary of this post-Saddam oil boom in Iraq,” said Denise Natali, a Middle East expert at the National Defense University in Washington. “They need energy, and they want to get into the market.”
“We lost out,” said Michael Makovsky, a former Defense Department official in the Bush administration who worked on Iraq oil policy. “The Chinese had nothing to do with the war, but from an economic standpoint they are benefiting from it, and our Fifth Fleet and air forces are helping to assure their supply.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/world/middleeast/china-reaps-biggest-benefits-of-iraq-oil-boom.html?pagewanted=all
Figures. Well, I hope every person who marched a friend or relative off to war with hoo-rah about Freedom thinks long and hard about that.
Money quote:
Unlike the executives of Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil, the Chinese happily accept the strict terms of Iraq’s oil contracts, which yield only minimal profits. China is more interested in energy to fuel its economy than profits to enrich its oil giants. Chinese companies do not have to answer to shareholders, pay dividends or even generate profits.
Capitalism will take you to the glory hole.
i think we are pretty lucky…we may just get to see how the whole “china experiment” plays out.
What do you call a company that doesn’t have to generate any profits?
Chinese companies do not have to answer to shareholders, pay dividends or even generate profits.
The U.S. government.
Only if they do things “for the children!”
non-profit?
non-profit does not mean not profitable.
What do you call a company that doesn’t have to generate any profits?
A company within a nationalistic master-plan to compete as an economic team against America’s cowboy capitalism.
China is an economic team of the state and business compeating as a team. USA is a hodgepodge of independent Corporations whose mission is designed to generate quarterly reports to enrich the CEO’s and top shareholders.
I agree let’s be more like China.
No welfare.
No OSHA.
No environmental regulations.
No minimum wage.
I agree let’s be more like China.
No welfare.
No OSHA.
No environmental regulations.
No minimum wage.
The GOP’s platform in a nutshell.
to the glory hole
Not sure how that relates to capitalism, the purpose of the glory hole is that it is free, anonymous, and voluntary for all participants.
Stop and think about it for a while.
“Capitalism will take you to the glory hole.”
POTD!
Of course, oil is fungible, and China buying Iraq’s newly available oil keeps oil prices from rising:
Of course, oil is fungible, and China buying Iraq’s newly available oil keeps oil prices from rising:
You mean falling?
There would be less available oil without Iraq’s new output, so prices would have risen, no?
We sent our jobs to communist China and then sell the oil from a country we conquered to communist China and the neocons have the BALLS to call anyone who disagrees with it… socialist commies?
And no one notices?
Now do you see why we can’t fix our kind of stupid?
CORRECTED-U.S. mortgage insurer Triad Guaranty files for bankruptcy
Tue Jun 4, 2013 2:41am EDT
(Corrects quote in second paragraph to show had been hit by high unemployment)
(Reuters) - Triad Guaranty Inc filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday, court documents showed, after the U.S. mortgage insurer was hurt by higher insured losses on the back of weakness in the jobs and housing market.
Triad, which sells mortgage insurance to residential mortgage lenders, said in a filing with Delaware bankruptcy court that its loss ratios, which measure incurred losses to premiums earned, had been hit by “continued high unemployment in the U.S. and the slow economic recovery in U.S. residential mortgage and housing markets”.
…
Bill Gross and the ‘wounded heart’ of financial markets: a grim diagnosis
June 4, 2013, 7:45 AM
“Wounded Heart.”
That’s the gripping title of the latest investment outlook from Pimco’s Bill Gross, and it looks like he pulled out the medical books to diagnose the effect of all that easy money swashing around the global economy.
What exactly is the “heart” he’s referring to? The global financial system, which he says is ”beginning to resemble a leukemia patient with New Age chemotherapy, desperately attempting to cure an economy that requires structural as opposed to monetary solutions.”
What all this easy money is doing, he says, is starving the markets of “carry,” as”Dr. Gross” refers to a credit or equity-risk premium that involves some gain or loss to an investor’s principal. Examples of this are corporate and high-yield bonds, stocks, private equity and emerging-market investments.
Gross points out that in the bond market, interest rates, risk spreads, volatility and liquidity premiums are much lower than they were five years ago during the financial crisis. He says what easy money hasn’t done is return economies to old, normal growth rates. Once yields, risk spreads, volatility or liquidity premiums get too low, there will be less and less incentive for investors to take risk.
Gross lays out five other “coagulants” that are blocking the financial system’s arteries:
1. Zero yields that deprive savers of the ability to generate income, which in turn limits consumption and economic growth.
2. Reduced carry via duration extension or spread that destroys business models and real economic growth. Think banks or insurers that can no longer generate enough “carry” to keep employees working.
3. Zombie corporations that are allowed to survive, stunting real growth in the process.
4. Corporations that resort to financial engineering as opposed to the research and development and productive investment that happens when ROI or carry in the real economy is too low.
5. Private credit markets that can’t deliver oxygen to the real economy because most new Treasurys “wind up in the dungeon of the Fed’s balance sheet.”
His ultimate diagnosis is grim, and that’s understandable, considering what recent market action has done for bond investors like himself…
the only growth I’ve seen is more debt.
the only path to recovery is more and more debt:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-loosen-standards-on-down-payments-2013-06-04
Inflation and debt. It extracts sufficient money from the citizenry to keep Wall Street flush with cash. And Wall street is the echo chamber in which the policy makers live.
The Gross article is interesting. If enough Wall Streeters are being squeezed by the current government and central bank policies, then the policies will be changed.
then the policies will be changed.
After all else fails, Keynesian theory will be tried and found to work.
Same as it ever was.
Oh but I’m sure it will end differently this time.
The only obstacle is still the same: amount of jobs and amount they pay in a 75% retail driven economy.
What all this easy money is doing, he says, is starving the markets of “carry,” as”Dr. Gross” refers to a credit or equity-risk premium that involves some gain or loss to an investor’s principal. Examples of this are corporate and high-yield bonds, stocks, private equity and emerging-market investments.”
It also makes it harder for flippers to buy homes cheap
so what ? thats the way it goes after the panic is gone and forgotten.
It will change again
Stocks up … gold down. Lather, rinse, repeat…
Gold - Electronic (COMEX) Aug 2013
$1,397.60
Change -$14.30 -1.01%
Volume 56,367
Jun 4, 2013 9:22 a.m.
Previous close $ 1,411.90
Day low $1,393
Day high $1,415
Open: $1,411.20
52 week low $1,323
52 week high $1,804
BANKS REVIVE RISKY LOANS AND MORTGAGES
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/business/banks-revive-risky-loans-and-mortgages.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
The coming second housing collapse is going to be breathtaking.
you have to get more people in the casino so homes can be financed with FHA loans and losses passed on to taxpayer.
obama housing bubble v2.0 sighting.
There have been many in the last 6 months.
I expect more to come. Until the “no one saw it coming” headlines appear.
Come on Dos Platano, it’s gonna be awesome to watch. I’ll even be able to break out my Mr. Housing Bubble T-shirt again. I mean, sure, it’s gonna bring the economic pain, but that’s part of the fun, right?
“obama housing bubble v2.0 sighting.
There have been many in the last 6 months.
I expect more to come. Until the “no one saw it coming” headlines appear.”
The headlines will be more along the lines of
“BUSH HOUSING BUBBLE LINGERS ON AS OBAMA TRIES HIS BEST TO CONTAIN IT”
And lives in your skull rent-free
Wait, you mean sheeple haven’t learned their lesson from, uh, 4-5 years ago? Shocking!
They never learn. It’s why the tragic parts of history repeat themselves.
More like government has not learned.
We could not have have another housing bubble if we did not have obama, ben, QE1/2/3/4/5, bank bailouts, cheap funny, easy money, $1 trillion deficits/year and the government borrowing 46 cents of every dollar it spends.
The people are just going along for the ride…
There. Is. No. Housing. Bubble.
Only hype.
Timber! Falling Lumber Prices Shatter Housing Optimism
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/timber-falling-lumber-prices-shatter-housing-optimism-120944811.html
Who’s buying all these MBS?
Donkey,
You know the answer to that so why ask it?
We all know that the Fed is buying the old toxic waste that Fannie originally bought from Countrywide et al in 2005.
I want to know who is buying all the NEW MBS; mortgages originated and carved up into tranches and put on the market in 2013.
What are the terms of the mortgage?
Are the bonds underwritten?
Did Moody’s rate them?
Does anyone trust the Moody’s rating?
Who bought the AAA tranche?
Who bought the junk tranche?
Did the buyers do a modicum of due diligence before they bought?
For example did they scan the mortgages for words like “strawberry picker?”
We know what the answers were in 2006:
NINJA
No
Yes
Yes
Everyone –> Fannie –> Fed
Everyone –> Fannie –> Fed
No
No
What are those answers in 2013?
The coming second housing collapse is going to be breathtaking.
Home prices are higher/monthly payments are lower. What will give? When?
And as many have said the ratio had not been 2 times income:
“Historically, the typical, median home in the U.S. cost 2.6 times as much as the median annual income”
High Home Price-to-Income Ratios Hiding Behind Low Mortgage Rates
http://www.forbes.com/sites/zillow/2013/04/16/high-home-price-to-income-ratios-hiding-behind-low-mortgage-rates/
By looking at two metrics — an affordability index and a price-to-income ratio — Zillow researchers have determined that low mortgage rates that make homes appear incredibly affordable are overshadowing a bigger overall trend in which the overall prices of homes are actually significantly more expensive than historic norms relative to annual incomes.
The affordability index measures the percentage of a homeowner’s monthly income devoted to housing (mortgage) payments. In the pre-bubble period from 1985 through 1999, homeowners spent 19.9 percent of their monthly income on mortgage payments. But because of historically low interest rates currently in the 3 to 4 percent range, at the end of Q4 2012, homeowners were spending only 12.6 percent of their monthly incomes on housing payments — or roughly 37 percent below historic norms. Low interest rates have translated into more purchasing power for homeowners, as the cost to finance homes has gone down.
The price-to-income ratio looks at the total cost/price of a home relative to median annual incomes. Historically, the typical, median home in the U.S. cost 2.6 times as much as the median annual income (so if the median income in an area was $100,000, the median price of a home would typically be about $260,000: $100,000 * 2.6).
While historically low mortgage rates are translating into big savings for homeowners, those same low monthly payments are masking a troubling trend. While home values have been on the rise for the past year — in some areas appreciating by 15 percent or more annually — median wages haven’t kept pace. As a result, home price-to-income ratios in many areas are climbing.
Because wage appreciation has failed to keep pace with home value appreciation, once rates rise and the illusion of affordability driven by smaller monthly payments disappears, the market will be left with homes that could potentially be too expensive to afford on the typical median wage.
“The days of historically high levels of housing affordability are numbered,”
And housing prices are still double the 2.6 metric. A distinction without a difference.
A listing two blocks away… Listed in may 15 for 1.15M, then the price was changed by 200k in 5 days…. The insanity of the downtown market in Austin
May 18 2013 Price Changed
$1,350,000
May 15 2013 Listed (Active)
$1,150,000
Signature top floor, 2-story residence with 22′ ceilings. Mint condition, 2nd home is the culmination of a 2-year, multi-hundred thousand dollar remodel delivering an unparalleled lifestyle in downtown Austin. Exclusive 82 resident tower with 24-7 concierge, outdoor dining, pool, fire pit & grill. Very rare, double loaded layout with northern and southern view corridors of the capitol, lady bird lake & downtown. Large 8′ deep balconies, Sherle Wagner hardware, walk-in closets and marble floors throughout.
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 2,286
$/Sq. Ft.: $591
HOA Dues: $1,209/month
Lot Size: 522 Sq. Ft.
MLS#: 4059494
Tax (2012) $17,780
Taxes and HOA alone - $2700 a month even if you have no mortgage.
Do you really own the $hit?
Shut up, sit down and pay your fair share.
Just who do you think you are?
A public union goon?
What, isn’t this “business friendly Texas?”
Actually, the property tax (17780) is about 1.3%. What I’m wondering is why is the HOA another 10 grand?
Taxes and HOA always go up specially in a city like Austin. There’s always endless city projects to keep up with the ‘cool’ image.
—–
Austin city leaders break ground on new Central Public Library
In 2006, voters approved a $90 million bond package for the project. So why the seven year hold for construction to begin?
“This sobering reality, even with the bond funds — we didn’t have enough money to build the kind of signature library we knew this community expected and deserved,” City Manager Marc Ott told a crowd at the ground breaking.
City leaders flew to Europe to tour some of the world’s top ranked libraries. To build one of that caliber that would last for years to come, they said they needed $120 million.
$120M for a library. By comparison the Hoover Dam cost $50M which is about $850M in 2013 dollars.
1933: Spend $850M on one of the greatest engineering marvels of the world that took 4 years and tens of thousands of employees to build in the middle of nowhere with 1930s technology.
2013: Spend $850M on 6 downtown libraries.
But don’t you dare claim govt spending is out of control.
Our little burg expanded our library without borrowing. The city saved for over 10 years and accumulated donations and grants as well. It cost $8M.
Then again, I expect that the Austin PL is much bigger.
More like $2800… $591 + $1209 = $1800
Hahahaa… I tried to correct you, but I f*cked up. So funny!
Condos are for fools and their money to be parted.
We call that “stupid money” where I come from.
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Maybe Suze meant that in a good way. A 50 Shades of Grey way.
And maybe that seismic deathtrap you’re making inflated payments on might be worth something someday……… but its depreciating rapidly in the meantime.
Suze meant credit card debt.
Hello Donkey…..
Suze means ALL debt. Furthermore she advises against anything real estate related and for good reason.
Why did you ignore her advice?
Hee Haw!
See? There are 50 shades of debt.
All designed to keep you enslaved to rapidly depreciating assets.
enslaved to rapidly depreciating assets.
Chained to them? At their mercy? Oh yeah…
Good thing I don’t have any debt. I never was into the kinky stuff.
And your losses grow daily in the absence of debt.
Housing Sales At Multi Decade Lows
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/03/20130328_house2.jpg
You do know what happens when prices rise on tiny volume…. right?
“Housing’s Dead Cat Bounce”
Now that it’s self-evident that housing is in dead cat bounce mode, you can now observe the losses of those who were foolish enough to believe the tripe and paid a grossly inflated price for a house even though a house is always a depreciating asset.
KEYYYYYYRAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSH!
That was the sound of housing prices crashing through the floor in your neighborhood.
There ain’t nothing left but the cryin’, a life time of debt and a smoldering moon crater.
Life time of debt?
That is for the little people or for the people who did not vote for obama.
Debt forgiveness is acoming!
The 47% have spoken. And they vote.
————————————
Earlier this week, President Obama nominated House Financial Services Committee member Mel Watt (D-N.C.) to head the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Proponents of principal reduction believe it is the most effective form of mortgage relief for deeply underwater borrowers—those who owe more than their homes are worth.
Forgiving a portion of the principal not only cuts borrowers’ monthly payments, but unlike other forms of modification, also helps borrowers regain some equity in their homes. This increases their willingness to continue making loan payments, lowering the probability of a default.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100706124
And you think I’m kidding when I predict the permanent democrat supermajority? What does the Republican party have to offer to the Free Sh1t Army? Why would the Free Sh1t Army vote for candidates who promise to take away their free sh1t?
Wars? I am sure the fee $shit army won’t mind blowing some mooslims once in a while….
I know you are not kidding.
America is soon going to be turned into Philly, Detroit, Camden, Newark, Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago.
Where republicans have not held power for 50 years.
And where democrats have run those places into the sewer. But they get re-elected year and year despite all their failures.
Why? Because the free sh*t army votes.
Part of the problem is that the republicans are running too many super conservative candidates. I guarantee a moderate republican (with a moderate running mate - that is a big problem, too) could win. I have liberal friends who are not free sh*t army folk who would absolutely vote for a moderate repub.
Funny, though, that I don’t know a single one of my right wing friends who would consider voting for a conservative dem.
I live life in the middle.
Name ONE current conservative democrat on the national stage.
And please tell me the difference in a conservative and “moderate republican”
Thanks for proving ec’s point, cabana boy.
Economically Conservative, Socially Liberal.
That’s what I want, and there aren’t any.
Business needs to pay taxes and be regulated. Currently, corporations write the tax laws and the regulations to benefit their CEO class.
Obama is the most liberal president ever. He won twice. The US loves socialism. I’m not thrilled with it, but it is what it is. When we go Greece style, the imbeciles will learn. Until then, doesn’t matter if the RINOiest RINO or Zombie Reagan runs on the GOP ticket, he/she will lose.
A majority of Americans have discovered that it’s easier to vote Democrat than wake up and go to work in the morning. Obama will give you free housing, free food, free laptops, free phones, free health care. What’s there not to love? And here come to mean evil Republicans who say you have to work for all that? Pffffft. No thanks.
Name ONE current conservative democrat on the national stage.
People forget where our country came from and our history. Obama is a conservative Democrat by historical standards. Or at least he is a moderate. His one main accomplishment, Obamacare is more business “conservative” than the plan Nixon floated. Ted Kennedy said his biggest regret is that he didn’t take Nixons deal and work with him.
On wars, can anyone say Obama is a peacenick? Obama is left on wars?
On bailouts, Obama followed the lead of Bush. This is center, not left.
Gay marriage? The majority of Americans are OK with it now so Obama is in the center on that issue too.
Obama is pro capital. I don’t see any big left wing labor pushes on his part.
On Soc Sec and Medicare, he wants to maintain a system supported by Reagan, Nixon, and Bush I.
To the GOP anybody left of Genghis Khan is a damn socialist commie.
Yet we live in the most fascist country on the planet at this time.
Trickle down, anyone?
“When we go Greece “
When we join the Euro? When too many of the upper class become tax avoiders?
Obama is a centrist Republican with a populist bent.
“Part of the problem is that the republicans are running too many super conservative candidates. I guarantee a moderate republican (with a moderate running mate - that is a big problem, too) could win.”
That’s a great idea. I wonder if John McCain or Mitt Romney are available in 2016?
Oh wait….
You could have the most viable Republican candidate ever, and the Retardicans who run the party could doom their chances of ever getting elected.
John McCain and Mitt Romney both had conservative running mates. Did you miss that part of the conditional clause?
Mitt Romney was one of the conservative Republican candidates in 2008. Did he tack back to the middle in 2012?
The timing of the financial crash doomed McCain’s campaign in 2008.
Why would the Free Sh1t Army vote for candidates who promise to take away their free sh1t?
The Free Sh1t Army would vote Repub if the Repub’s trickledown experiment had worked. And if it would have worked, the Repubs would not be promising to cut the free sh!t because there would be prosperity all around and higher tax receipts. And less need for scraps.
Most people want jobs that pay well and not scraps of “free-sh!t”
And yea, people kill themselves over not having a good job or a future.
What else happened to housing in 2006?
Home Prices Are Rising At The Fastest Pace Since February 2006
Busness Insider | 6-3-2013 | Mamta Badkar
Home prices (including distressed sales) climbed 12.1% year-over-year in April, according to Corelogic’s latest home price report. Home prices were up 3.2% month-over-month in April.
This was the biggest year-over-year increase since February 2006, and the 14th straight monthly increase. Moreover, on an annual basis, home prices were up in all 50 states for the second straight month.
Ex-distressed sales home prices were up 11.9% on the year, and 3% on the month.
“Increasing demand for new and existing homes, coupled with low inventory, has created a virtuous cycle for price gains, most clearly seen in the Western states with year-over-year gains of 20 percent or more,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic CEO in a press release.
Interesting take on Bitcoin
“how-bitcoin-can-bring-down-the-united-states-of-america”
Got grandiosity?
Inflation erodes people’s purchasing power. In a GDP with 70 percent being consumer spending, eroding the value of the currency - eroding the individual’s purchasing power - is not going to prompt them to spend more.
Here’s MIT’s Billion Prices Product - their own inflation gauge: http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/ - compared to CPI.
Since 2008, there’s been an 8% increase in overall prices as of 2013, about a 4-5% increase as of 2011.
HOWEVER: the median and average incomes have not increased at such a rate: http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html
Median income 2008: 26,514
Median income 2011: 26,965
Percent increase: (26,965 - 26,514) / 26,514 = 1.7%
Average income 2008: 39,653
Average income 2011: 41,211
Percent increase: (41,211 - 39,653) / 39,653 = 3.9%
Not even average income, biased higher by the outsize income gains of the top earners, is greater than the erosion of the inflation loss (around 4-5% as of 2011, 8% as of 2013).
Inflation erodes people’s purchasing power. That prompts them to spend less, not more.
The government and central bank push inflation and debt. The reality is that this benefits their future clients and employers on Wall Street, not the citizenry. Inflation is a stealth tax which pushes people into financial products with the enticement of higher yields (and higher risk - “Where are the clients’ yachts?” asks the famous book title), and debt feeds the bond markets.
Volcker is saying that the Fed should do away with its dual mandate, and just focus on price stability.
In order to create a sustainable, prosperous economy, Congress needs to be working on trade policy, energy policy, industrial policy, financial policy and others. Instead, they are derelict in their duty, spending the bulk of their time on fund raising, partying, dispensing favors and junkets. The few times they do act, as in the air traffic controller furlough fix, it is because their own convenience is threatened (”Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland chided fellow lawmakers for frantically pushing the bill through just before the break, making their upcoming travels easier”).
This leaves Uncle Fed to go out and buy vast amounts of debt with printed money, to somehow increase employment. Despite the possibility that the core conceit, that homeownership helps employment, might be totally false. Here’s an article from 1999 on it. And here is the most recent study on it.
This bi-polar system suits both parties. Congress can remain feckless, and Uncle Fed can continue with its bold experiments. In the case of another blowup, each can blame the other.
Volcker Cautions Federal Reserve May ‘Fall Short’
By John Detrixhe - May 29, 2013 3:56 PM ET
“It’s fashionable to talk about a dual mandate, that policy should somehow be directed toward two objectives, of price stability and full employment,” Volcker told the Economic Club of New York. “Fashionable or not, I find that mandate both operationally confusing and ultimately illusory.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/volcker-cautions-federal-reserve-may-fall-short-.html
I posted this earlier as a minor part of another post, but it was intriguing enough to deserve its own post:
———————————————————–
I found an article from 1999 saying that increased homeownership leads to increased unemployment:
Previously, Chatterbox endorsed journalist Phillip Longman’s observation that U.S. tax subsidies for homeownership are bad for the economy. If the money spent subsidizing the American Dream were invested elsewhere, Longman argued in his book Thrift, it might do more to boost productivity. (See “Does Homeowning Really Promote Good Citizenship?”) Now Richard K. Green, of the University of Wisconsin, whose study on homeownership’s possibly good effect on child-rearing Chatterbox cited in a follow-up item, has alerted Chatterbox to another study that suggests a direct bad economic effect that Longman seems not to have thought of: Namely, homeownership increases unemployment.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/chatterbox/1999/06/how_homeownership_increases_unemployment.html
———————————————————–
The Economist from 2009 (with an interesting tidbit at the end about the Postal Service actually buying houses at face value from employees and selling them at a loss):
Mobility is part of the American dream. In “The Grapes of Wrath”, when Tom Joad’s farm in Oklahoma was repossessed he packed up his family in a sputtering truck and set off for California. Things didn’t work out so well for John Steinbeck’s hero. But throughout history, Americans have dealt with economic shocks by picking themselves up and moving on. Their mobility underpins America’s flexible, dynamic labour market. Now it faces two threats.
http://www.economist.com/node/13331109
———————————————————–
And then just the other day (May 9, 2013), the new study showing the link between increased homeownership and increased unemployment:
A new study by two economists concludes that rising levels of homeownership in a state “are a precursor to eventual sharp rises in unemployment in that state.” As more homes are owned, in other words, fewer people have jobs.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/10/business/homeownership-may-actually-cause-unemployment.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
———————————————————–
And the central bank and government policies have been focused on increasing housing debt and homeownership, and stoking inflation.
I think it’s a chicken and egg thing. An area that has more jobs will attract more people to move there, who will often rent when they first arrive. Therefore the rental rate goes up in ‘booming’ areas. Conversely, people will be moving away from low-job areas, with those stuck in houses they own the last to go, which would cause high home ownership rates in decaying areas.
However, what they’re specifically claiming is that AFTER homeownership goes up, THEN unemployment rises.
Not that after unemployment rises, then homeownership rates go up, which is your scenario.
There’s the May 1999 Oswald study, the May 2013 Oswald and Blanchflower study, and a European study by Laamanen (2013) which discuss this effect.
However, what they’re specifically claiming is that AFTER homeownership goes up, THEN unemployment rises.
That could be the economically stagnating period, when jobs aren’t being created, new people aren’t being drawn to the area, and rental rates start to go down compared to homeownership rates.
Did the studies say homeownership went up in absolute terms, or in comparison to rental rates?
Well, they’re pretty blunt about what they’re asserting:
Lammenen 2013: “Our results show that home-ownership has a significant positive external effect on unemployment,” - p.3
Oswald, Blanchflower 2013: “We find that rises in the home-ownership rate in a US state are a precursor to eventual sharp rises in unemployment in that state… The evidence suggests, instead, that the housing market can produce negative ‘externalities’ upon the labor market. The time lags are long. That gradualness may explain why these important patterns are so little-known.” — p.1
I posted links directly to the studies/papers so people can take a look and ponder the information.
What are the negative externalities?
And the mechanism I suspect is not particularly complicated. Namely that spending on the house - downpayments, house payments, maintenance - crowds out other spending.
FYI, links to studies / working papers:
1) Oswald, 1997: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/oswald/inaugura.pdf
2) Oswald 1999: http://individual.utoronto.ca/helderman/Oswald.pdf
3) Oswald, Blanchflower, 2013: http://www.piie.com/publications/wp/wp13-3.pdf
4) Lammenen, 2013: http://tampub.uta.fi/handle/10024/68116
From the Lammenen paper:
“Since Oswald’s (1996) influential paper on the detrimental effects of home-ownership on the labour market, several studies have either replicated Oswald’s empirical analyses with other datasets or tested the theoretical hypotheses using micro-economic data. Several studies using regional or cross-country data lend some support to the claim that a higher regional home-ownership rate leads to a higher rate of unemployment (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2013; Coulson and Fisher, 2009; Costain and Reiter, 2008; Munch et al., 2006; Di Tella and MacCulloch, 2005; Green and Hendershott, 2001; Nickell, 1998).
5) Washington Post link on the 2013 Oswald/Blanchflower paper, with a link to Lammenen 2013: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/07/study-high-levels-of-homeownership-can-kill-the-job-market/
Sounds like Oswald agrees with me:
The idea that owning a home makes it harder to find a job because of higher moving costs is now known as “Oswald’s hypothesis.”
Well… the phenomenon is either true or not.
Blanchflower is an Ivy League professor (Dartmouth). Oswald has been a visiting professor at several Ivy League schools, including Harvard and Princeton.
And the Laamanen paper identifies seven other studies which show the same phenomenon of increasing homeownership creating increased unemployment.
Well… the phenomenon is either true or not.
I’m not saying it isn’t true. It looks like it is. But the studies seem to show correlation, not causation.
I was wondering if the studies stated what it was about homeownership that would cause a reduction in area employment.
AND… I’ve been spelling Laamanen’s name wrong
Laamanen, not “Lammenen” 8-0
FYI in case anyone was going to search on it.
Interesting links. Thanks for posting.
If youre new here or just passing thru, remember this before all else……..Realtors Are Liars. They will lie thru their teeth and even cross the line into misconduct and malfeasance to make a sale.
JFK - The Speech That Killed Him - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8HTr-F-FVM - 211k -
“We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost 40 years……It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supernational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national autodetermination practiced in past centuries.”
― David Rockefeller
The free sh*t army says “WTF?”
———————
And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.
Kennedy wouldn’t stand a chance of getting elected today.
Oddly enough, neither would Eisenhower. (last great GOP president)
Go google “Operation Wetback”
“…every president, no matter how great on the surface, owned a heart chewed by rats.”
- Sherman Alexie
God I love that quote.
I am familiar with “OW”.
Perfect rebuttal to those who say it couldn’t be done today. Eisenhower did it and did it successfully.
Do you know the connection between Eisenhower and Deming?
Besides birthday?
And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you - ask what you can do for your country.
That question was much easier to ask in 1961. Taxes were very progressive and wealth was better distributed if the goal is a strong country for all. Look at this chart. Taxes on the bottom and wealth inequality on the top. Is there a relationship?
http://www.businessinsider.com/plutocracy-reborn
Look at 1961. When Kennedy made that speech in 1961 the top .01% made 180 times as much and the bottom 90%.
Today the top .01% makes about 1,100 times as much as the botom 90% of Americans.
Look when it started to all go haywire. 1980. What began in 1980 that put us on this road to ruin? Deregulation, Trickle down BS, Free trade and the abandonment of the middle class for the sake of the rich. We did it. It failed us. “Government needs to get out of the way?” Not only did the government get out of the way…..but it threw us in front of the train.
Income inequality has not been this bad since before The Great Depression. Wealth inequality is even worse. Study that chart. It’s all there to put 2 and 2 together.
Good refresher.
It’s been thought by some for quite some time that JFK’s intents toward the Federal Reserve Board is what got him assassinated.
The Creature From Jekyll
Many reasons.
JKF was making a lot of waves and pissing off the PTB that were building the future we live in now.
The Biggest Price-Fixing Scandal Ever: Conspiracy Theorists Were Right !
Posted by talesfromthelou on May 29, 2013
Politics News | Rolling Stone
The Illuminati were amateurs. The second huge financial scandal of the year reveals the real international conspiracy: There’s no price the big banks can’t fix
Conspiracy theorists of the world, believers in the hidden hands of the Rothschilds and the Masons and the Illuminati, we skeptics owe you an apology. You were right. The players may be a little different, but your basic premise is correct: The world is a rigged game. We found this out in recent months, when a series of related corruption stories spilled out of the financial sector, suggesting the world’s largest banks may be fixing the prices of, well, just about everything.
You may have heard of the Libor scandal, in which at least three – and perhaps as many as 16 – of the name-brand too-big-to-fail banks have been manipulating global interest rates, in the process messing around with the prices of upward of $500 trillion (that’s trillion, with a “t”) worth of financial instruments. When that sprawling con burst into public view last year, it was easily the biggest financial scandal in history – MIT professor Andrew Lo even said it “dwarfs by orders of magnitude any financial scam in the history of markets.”
That was bad enough, but now Libor may have a twin brother. Word has leaked out that the London-based firm ICAP, the world’s largest broker of interest-rate swaps, is being investigated by American authorities for behavior that sounds eerily reminiscent of the Libor mess. Regulators are looking into whether or not a small group of brokers at ICAP may have worked with up to 15 of the world’s largest banks to manipulate ISDAfix, a benchmark number used around the world to calculate the prices of interest-rate swaps.
Interest-rate swaps are a tool used by big cities, major corporations and sovereign governments to manage their debt, and the scale of their use is almost unimaginably massive. It’s about a $379 trillion market, meaning that any manipulation would affect a pile of assets about 100 times the size of the United States federal budget.
It should surprise no one that among the players implicated in this scheme to fix the prices of interest-rate swaps are the same megabanks – including Barclays, UBS, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and the Royal Bank of Scotland – that serve on the Libor panel that sets global interest rates. In fact, in recent years many of these banks have already paid multimillion-dollar settlements for anti-competitive manipulation of one form or another (in addition to Libor, some were caught up in an anti-competitive scheme, detailed in Rolling Stone last year, to rig municipal-debt service auctions). Though the jumble of financial acronyms sounds like gibberish to the layperson, the fact that there may now be price-fixing scandals involving both Libor and ISDAfix suggests a single, giant mushrooming conspiracy of collusion and price-fixing hovering under the ostensibly competitive veneer of Wall Street culture.
The Scam Wall Street Learned From the Mafia
Why? Because Libor already affects the prices of interest-rate swaps, making this a manipulation-on-manipulation situation. If the allegations prove to be right, that will mean that swap customers have been paying for two different layers of price-fixing corruption. If you can imagine paying 20 bucks for a crappy PB&J because some evil cabal of agribusiness companies colluded to fix the prices of both peanuts and peanut butter, you come close to grasping the lunacy of financial markets where both interest rates and interest-rate swaps are being manipulated at the same time, often by the same banks.
“It’s a double conspiracy,” says an amazed Michael Greenberger, a former director of the trading and markets division at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and now a professor at the University of Maryland. “It’s the height of criminality.”
The bad news didn’t stop with swaps and interest rates. In March, it also came out that two regulators – the CFTC here in the U.S. and the Madrid-based International Organization of Securities Commissions – were spurred by the Libor revelations to investigate the possibility of collusive manipulation of gold and silver prices. “Given the clubby manipulation efforts we saw in Libor benchmarks, I assume other benchmarks – many other benchmarks – are legit areas of inquiry,” CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton said.
But the biggest shock came out of a federal courtroom at the end of March – though if you follow these matters closely, it may not have been so shocking at all – when a landmark class-action civil lawsuit against the banks for Libor-related offenses was dismissed. In that case, a federal judge accepted the banker-defendants’ incredible argument: If cities and towns and other investors lost money because of Libor manipulation, that was their own fault for ever thinking the banks were competing in the first place.
“A farce,” was one antitrust lawyer’s response to the eyebrow-raising dismissal.
“Incredible,” says Sylvia Sokol, an attorney for Constantine Cannon, a firm that specializes in antitrust cases.
All of these stories collectively pointed to the same thing: These banks, which already possess enormous power just by virtue of their financial holdings – in the United States, the top six banks, many of them the same names you see on the Libor and ISDAfix panels, own assets equivalent to 60 percent of the nation’s GDP – are beginning to realize the awesome possibilities for increased profit and political might that would come with colluding instead of competing. Moreover, it’s increasingly clear that both the criminal justice system and the civil courts may be impotent to stop them, even when they do get caught working together to game the system.
If true, that would leave us living in an era of undisguised, real-world conspiracy, in which the prices of currencies, commodities like gold and silver, even interest rates and the value of money itself, can be and may already have been dictated from above. And those who are doing it can get away with it. Forget the Illuminati – this is the real thing, and it’s no secret. You can stare right at it, anytime you want.
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425#ixzz2UjMBUgFQ
Does anybody else have helicopters with what appear to be cameras on them flying over their house at relatively low altitude a couple of times a day besides me?
nope. must just be you.
Oh good, just checking.
Must be a South Florida thing.
Those are my drones.
Foreclosure checks from national settlement worth $1,480
by Kim Miller
More than 960,000 borrowers nationwide who submitted a claim through the National Mortgage Settlement will receive a check this month for about $1,480, according to Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller.
Miller was the lead state negotiator in the landmark $25 billion settlement with the nation’s five largest banks.
The number of Florida checks to be disbursed was not immediately available.
Borrowers eligible for the checks lost their home to foreclosure between Jan. 2, 2008 and Dec. 31, 2011.
Nationwide, about 55 percent of eligible borrowers applied for the checks, which were originally expected to be for about $840.
The settlement administrator will mail valid claim payments between June 10 and June 17.
Also this morning, Gov. Rick Scott signed a bill that dedicates more than $200 million from the settlement to state housing initiatives, Florida’s foreclosure courts, legal aid services for homeowners and dorm rooms.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 4th, 2013 at 11:39 am and is filed under Florida economy, Foreclosures. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Banking = Government
It’s the reason why the checks are so small (actually, there should be no checks) and why the banks are doing just fine, thanks (banks that instead should have been left to go under).
“Banking = Government”
If that’s the case, why do bankers want to take semi-auto rifles with 30 round mags away from law abiding U.S. citizens?
Ooooooooohhhhhhhhh.
Because they know we’ll come after them, sooner or later?
Hit The Road Jack- Ray Charles HQ - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTaU3_Of6VU - 230k
If this song were written today, would Jack still have been asked to hit the road?
Let’s take a look.
—————————————————————–
(Hit the road Jack and don’t you come back no more, no more, no more, no more.)
(Hit the road Jack and don’t you come back no more.)
What you say?
——————————————————————-
As we can see, Jack has been asked to hit the road and told not to come back no more. This seems to suprise Jack as evidenced by his answer…. “What you say?”
————————————————————————
Woah Woman, oh woman, don’t treat me so mean,
You’re the meanest old woman that I’ve ever seen.
I guess if you said so
I’d have to pack my things and go. (That’s right)
—————————————————————————
Here Jack seems to be saying that he is not being treated fairly, but under the circumstances will agree to vacate the premises.
————————————————————————
Now baby, listen baby, don’t ya treat me this-a way
Cause I’ll be back on my feet some day.
(Don’t care if you do ’cause it’s understood)
(you ain’t got no money and you just ain’t no good)
Well, I guess if you say so
I’d have to pack my things and go. (That’s right)
————————————————————————-
Here Jack is stressing that he will be gainfully employed again someday after a presumably extended period of unemployment in a time period that did not include 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. The response Jack receives is indeed troubling.
I don’t believe this song could have been written in our day and age yet questions remain. What would the outcome have been?
If Jack had access to SSDI, SNAP etc. would he have been allowed to stay?
If he had access to these benefits would it still have been understood that he was just no good?
If he had access to these benefits, would he have been there in the first place considering she was the meanest old woman that he had ever seen?
We can only wonder.
CNN Headlines:
• Wal-Mart’s low wages cost taxpayers
• McMansions are making a comeback
Interesting times…
Does Uncle Sam (openly) engage in “targeted stock buying”? If so, where would one obtain information on such activities?
June 4, 2013, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Japan stocks drop ahead of Abe’s speech
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Japan stocks sink as Asia digests China data
By V. Phani Kumar
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Japanese stocks slid lower early Wednesday after a retreat on Wall Street, with financial shares and several exporters sliding lower on caution ahead of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s speech later in the day. The Nikkei Stock Average (JP:NIK +0.04%) fell 0.3% to 13,500.27 after opening higher, while the broader Topix (JP:I0000 -0.10%) gave up 0.7% to 1,117.86. Prime Minister Abe was set to outline an economic growth strategy later in the day, with The Wall Street Journal reporting he’d announce a plan for greater targeted stock buying, while Kyodo News reported the government would pledge to create 4.4 million new jobs by 2030.
…
Dumb question of the day:
Does the fact that a high-level governmental activity is never openly discussed effectively make it legal?
Does the prediction I am about to post imply stocks have also hit their peak levels for the year?
Jeff Gundlach: Treasurys likely at best yield of year, time to buy
June 4, 2013, 4:02 PM
Long-term Treasurys are looking good right now, as stock prices struggle against earnings growth that has to deal with drying up revenue, said bond-market guru Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, in his webcast entitled “What in the World is Going On?” late Tuesday.
“I don’t think you’re going to get a higher yield between now and year end,” Gundlach said of long-term Treasurys. With the 10-year note (10_YEAR 0.19%) at 2.15%, he expects yields to fall back below 2% to around 1.7% by year-end.
…
“drying up revenue”
Boo-yah!
What is it about “stock market crash dead ahead” that the bovine herd finds difficult to process?
U.S. Factories Show Surprising Contraction - WSJ dot com
ECONOMY
Updated June 3, 2013, 7:59 p.m. ET
Weak Signs for U.S. Output
Factories Suffer Worst Slump Since End of Recession
By BEN CASSELMAN and NEIL SHAH
U.S. factories in May posted their worst month since the end of the recession, as weakness overseas overwhelmed a still-shaky manufacturing recovery at home.
Housing markets in the U.S. and improving consumer sentiment are giving the domestic economy a good chance at recovery, that is, if it weren’t for the rest of the world holding it back. Yesterday’s factory data showed how a global slowdown continues to create problems for US manufacturers. Ben Casselman joins the News Hub.
The Institute for Supply Management on Monday said its broad index, in which any reading below 50 indicates contraction, fell to 49 from 50.7 in April—the first decline since November. The reading, based on a survey of corporate purchasing managers, is the lowest since the recession ended in June 2009.
“It’s a fragile recovery,” said Alexander Cutler, chairman and chief executive of industrial conglomerate Eaton Corp. (ETN -0.95%) “This has been very much the environment we’ve been talking about for the past several years.”
…
It appears that U.S. automobile demand has reached a permanently high plateau.
Got incipient automobile shadow inventory?
AUTOS
Updated June 3, 2013, 11:42 p.m. ET
Uneven Gains Signal U.S. Car Demand Near Plateau
Trucks, SUVs Up Strongly, but Uneven Results May Signal Plateau
By CHRISTINA ROGERS and NEAL E. BOUDETTE
Strong demand for pickup trucks and sport-utility vehicles boosted U.S. sales in May for major auto makers, but the auto industry rebound that has helped buoy the U.S. economy since early last year is showing signs of leveling off.
Auto makers on Monday reported a mixed bag of results for their May U.S. new-car sales. Some had big gains, including Ford Motor Co., Chrysler Group LLC and Nissan Motor Co. Others, however, showed tepid growth, including General Motors Co., Hyundai Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp.
Overall, consumers and businesses bought vehicles at an annualized rate of 15.3 million vehicles, according to researcher Autodata Corp., the fourth month this year that sales have exceeded a 15 million vehicle pace. However, May’s sales pace was only slightly above the average for the first five months of 2013.
For the last four years, auto makers have enjoyed a steady recovery in sales, which bottomed out in 2009, when Americans purchased just 10 million cars and light trucks. In 2012, auto sales rose 13% to 14.5 million vehicles.
This year, U.S. light-vehicle sales have continued to surge ahead, thanks to easy credit, an improving housing market that has boosted demand for pickup trucks, and higher home prices, which tend to put consumers in a spending mood.
In anticipation of another strong year, U.S. car makers are limiting their traditional summer shutdown to keep cranking out cars. Ford plans to increase its third quarter U.S. production by 10% from a year ago to 740,000 vehicles.
However, some industry analysts say that auto makers will have to work harder, and employ greater discounts and new marketing tactics, to sustain growth.
“Car companies are having to do things to energize the market, and it is going to get harder and harder for them to hit their numbers,” said Jeremy Anwyl, vice chairman of Edmunds.com, a car-shopping website.
…
Is affrication an example of affrication?
Frication is where it’s at when it comes to speech.
If you actually want to talk about real estate- here’s what’s going on in Chicago. Nearly every semi-decently priced property is going under contract with multiple offers within days. It’s worse than the peak of the bubble when at least there was some choice (even as prices were rising.)
This was for a 1200 square foot 2 bedroom, 2 bath duplex down (both bedrooms in the basement) in the Wicker Park neighborhood of Chicago. Listed at $419,900. It last sold in 2007 for $450,000 however.
“So, here’s how crazy the market is in Wicker Park: we had two open houses this weekend, and 120 people came. Our agent was supposed to do scheduled showings for 2 people yesterday–it ended up being 15. We have multiple offers, with best and final being due today at 5pm…. Anyway, the place definitely spoke to a lot of people who came out this weekend, and we feel extremely fortunate to have so many offers. It’s a good time to be selling!”
http://www.redfin.com/IL/Chicago/2017-W-Evergreen-Ave-60622/unit-AV101/home/12715306
Given that rental properties presumably were bought for income, aren’t they getting hammered right now along with REITs, dividend stocks and bonds?
Just sayin’…
ft dot com
Last updated: June 4, 2013 9:05 pm
Reits hit as global income party stalls
By Arash Massoudi in New York and Josh Noble in Hong Kong
When executives and bankers sit down next week to figure out pricing for New World Development’s planned Hong Kong listing, the mood may be rather more sombre than previously hoped. The $1bn spin-off of hotel assets into a business trust was originally devised in a very different market – one where yield was still king.
Just a few weeks ago, such trusts – along with other income-linked equity products – were flying, not just in Asia, but across the world. Investors fearful of the risk of stocks, but unhappy with the income from bonds, sought a halfway house in equities with high dividends, or trusts that promised a consistent income.
The effects have been clear in new issues and the secondary market, especially for real estate investment trusts (Reits). Mapletree successfully raised $1.4bn in a Singapore Reit listing in February that was heavily oversubscribed, while the Link Reit – Hong Kong’s biggest by market capitalisation – rose to reach a premium to net asset value of more than 30 per cent in mid-May. Dividend plays from Australian banks, to European pharmaceuticals, to US utilities also soared.
But that strategy is now under pressure, as cracks in the bond market push credit yields upwards. Speculation that the Federal Reserve may withdraw or taper its $85bn-a-month bond buying programme, amid an improving US economy, has sent credit yields higher, altering the dynamic for income-linked equity strategies globally.
“Things that were being bought for income have taken a bit of a battering as people expect rates to pick up. It’s a real switch,” says one Asia-based banker who works on new listings. “You’ll see a return of interest in income yield products when there are wobbles in US data. But you have to wonder if the very best days of the Reit business are behind us.”
…
ft dot com
Last updated: June 4, 2013 8:38 pm
HSBC accused of ignoring US foreclosure law
By Lina Saigol in London and Kara Scannell in New York
A bank branch of HSBC is seen in St Helier, Jersey in this November 11, 2012 file photo. HSBC said on December 11 it will pay a fine of $1.92 billion (1.19 billion pounds) in a deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice over the London-based bank’s inadequate compliance with anti-money laundering laws.©Reuters
HSBC put hundreds of homeowners at greater risk of losing their properties by failing to file paperwork to initiate settlement talks, New York state prosecutors alleged in a civil lawsuit filed on Tuesday.
The lawsuit by Eric Schneiderman, the state attorney-general, which seeks to recover unfair mortgage charges, accuses HSBC of ignoring a state law designed to initiate talks between homeowners and banks to resolve foreclosure cases.
The move is HSBC’s latest legal setback in the US. In December the bank agreed to pay a $1.3bn fine to the Department of Justice and a further $665m to US regulators to settle money-laundering and sanctions breaches. It also signed a deferred prosecution agreement to resolve criminal charges.
New York state alleges that HSBC failed to file the required paperwork in hundreds of foreclosure cases – which would have triggered a settlement conference – and continued to charge interest and fees. In some cases, the bank is accused of putting off filing the documentation for more than two years.
This increased the amounts that homeowners owed and reduced their chances of qualifying for relief, the lawsuit alleges. The state is seeking restitution of interest and fees charged to homeowners.
“Companies like HSBC are brazenly ignoring state law, leaving homeowners across New York stuck in a legal limbo where they can’t even get the legally required settlement conference that could help them keep their homes,” Mr Schneiderman said.
HSBC said it was “committed to complying with the law when it comes to foreclosure” and would “respond appropriately to the state AG in this matter”.
The bulk of the HSBC mortgage cases stem from the bank’s Household subsidiary, the subprime lending unit that caused billions of dollars of losses for the group in the financial crisis. However, people familiar with the case said the financial ramifications of the affair were small by comparison and also on a different scale from some foreclosure cases confronting large US banks.
The HSBC lawsuit comes just a few weeks after Mr Schneiderman said he planned to sue Bank of America and Wells Fargo over an alleged failure to adhere to the terms of a $26bn settlement that was supposed to provide relief to homeowners and end foreclosure abuses. HSBC was not part of that settlement.
Mr Schneiderman warned of actions against other lenders in the lawsuit.
…
ft dot com
June 4, 2013 6:27 pm
America owes a lot to Bernanke
By Martin Wolf
Fed critics lack imagination or are indifferent to what would have happened had it not acted
It is easy to find people on Wall Street who believe that the aggressive monetary policies of central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, are destabilising the economy. In some quarters, as my colleagues Dan McCrum and Robin Harding have reported, this suspicion has been elevated to a self-evident truth. But it is wrong.
Central banks, including the Fed, are doing the right thing. If they had not acted as they have over the past six years, we would surely have suffered a second Great Depression. Avoiding such a meltdown and then helping economies recover is the job of central banks. My criticism, albeit more of the European Central Bank than of the Fed, is not that they have done too much, but that they have done too little. This does not mean that policies central banks have adopted are either riskless or costless. They are not. It does mean that they were the least bad option.
What is more, the fact that yields on bonds of highly rated sovereigns have risen recently is surely a sign of success. What seems to be happening is the rebirth of some confidence in the economy, particularly in the US. This is encouraging investors to expect an earlier exit from QE and other forms of expansionary monetary policy than was foreseen a few weeks ago.
As Gavyn Davies notes, this may be the start of a return to normality. Yes, yields on US conventional 10-year bonds are up about 40 basis points over the past month. But they are still just over 2 per cent. This is hardly a bond market Armageddon. If recovery takes hold, as we hope, yields will rise further. Nobody can have supposed that nominal and real long-term interest rates would remain at basement levels forever.
…
“This is hardly a bond market Armageddon. If recovery takes hold, as we hope, yields will rise further.”
The Fed has lots of people fooled, and apparently Martin Wolf is one of them.
Markets
Has the Treasury Bonds Selloff Hit a Wall?
Treasury bonds fell a long way in May and now the rise in yields has run out of steam. But Goldman Sachs’s Francesco Garzarelli says it’s just a pause for breath. He tells Katie Martin that the rise in yields will not be a straight line.
6/4/2013 9:25:04 AM4:40
As long as QE3 is pumping in $85 bn a month, why worry about fiscal tightness?
IMF chief: U.S. economy facing “self-inflicted” wounds
Published: June 4, 2013 7:38 PM
By The Associated Press
Christine Lagarde, managing director, International Monetary Fund, delivers
Photo credit: Getty | Christine Lagarde, managing director, International Monetary Fund, delivers remarks as the keynote speaker at the Joint Board of Trustees and International Advisory Council Meeting at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. (June 4, 2013)
The International Monetary Fund chief criticized the United States Tuesday for cutting back government spending too much, too fast, saying it was taking a toll on growth in one of the world’s main economic engines.
Christine Lagarde also said upbeat financial markets are out of whack with a sluggish global economy that is showing signs of slowing even further.
In an overview of trouble spots around the world, Lagarde said the United States had come a long way in the five years since it triggered the global economic crisis with financial excesses.
“Despite this progress, the U.S. is not doing as well as it should, largely because of self-inflicted fiscal wounds,” she said, a reference to government belt tightening that the IMF says has gone too far, too fast.
She criticized across-the-board federal spending cuts imposed in March known as sequestration. “Sequestration alone, if not reversed, could cut a half-percent of GDP growth. It is also an extremely blunt instrument, imposing deep cuts in many vital programs, including those that help the most vulnerable, while leaving untouched the key drivers of long-term spending,” Lagarde said, speaking at the Brookings Institution in Washington, where the IMF is based.
“If the sequester were to be replaced by more backloaded measures, however, growth should strengthen in the second half of the year,” she added with the caveat that she did not expect that to happen.
…
June 5, 2013, 12:02 a.m. EDT
Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end
Commentary: 10 predictions point to worse plunge than 2008
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, CA (MarketWatch) — New crash coming? When? Before year-end?
In “Stocks for the Long Run,” economist Jeremy Siegel researched all the “big market moves” between 1801 and 2001. Bottom line: 75% of the time, there is no rationale for “big moves.” No one can predict them. Maybe technicians and traders can pick short-term moves the next second. Maybe tomorrow. But the long-term “big market moves?” No way.
So why predict an “87%” chance of another meltdown in 2013? Because in the real world of statistical probabilities, historical facts and expert opinions danger signals are flashing wild. In mid-2008 we summarized the predictions of 20 experts over several years. Predicted a meltdown in a few years — markets crashed two months later. Fast.
In retrospect, it was inevitable, thanks in part to the hype, arrogance and incompetence of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who failed to prepare America.
The warnings are again accelerating. And so is the happy talk from Wall Street casino insiders, about rallies, housing recoveries, perpetual cheap money. Don’t listen. The next crash will happen by year-end.
Yes, there’s a 13% chance the next Fed chairman will keep printing cheap money into 2014. But on New Years Eve our aging bull will be 4½ years old, well past Bill O’Neill’s “average” 3.75 years for putting this bull out to pasture.
So unless you’re shorting, all bets on Wall Street casinos for 2014 are megarisk, like 2008. Like a Stephen King horror film, you feel it coming. Could happen anytime, even tomorrow, says Siegel’s research, or the unpredictable logic in Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan.”
…
Fed critics lack imagination or are indifferent to what would have happened had it not acted
As Han Solo said…”I can imagine a lot”. I guess that means I’m indifferent. Got food and ammo?
If they had not acted as they have over the past six years, we would surely have suffered a second Great Depression.
Yes, and by now things would be getting better. Instead something worse is still dead ahead. The end of the dollar and a bit of fascism perhaps? We’ll spin the wheel and take our chances, I guess.