Bits Bucket for June 7, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Good morning everyone. Also hello to the NSA. *waves in direction of ft. Meade, MD*
I’m going away for a few days, hope everyone has a good weekend and the “go time” contingent from hbb isn’t whisked off to Guantanamo in the middle of the night.
As Glenn Reynolds might say” They told me if I voted for Mitt Romney, the Mormons would be storing and reading all my emails in Utah…and they were right!”
Somewone corrected me when I said that the IRS must store the collected info in a db, Ahansen or Polly, said that the govt was underfunded and couldn’t afford a db like facebook.
“Somewone corrected me when I said that the IRS must store the collected info in a db, Ahansen or Polly, said that the govt was underfunded and couldn’t afford a db like facebook.”
And the govt won’t ever store gun purchases in a database either because 1) that would be too expensive and 2) it would be against the law. I’ve been assured by several of my liberal betters of this.
You put out a lot of digital exhaust and you have every reason to be paranoid.
I know right? It’s crazy to think the govt would break the law and spy on people and stuff. Just crazy talk. We can trust Obama to always do the right thing.
“Comment by Bluestar
2013-06-07 07:02:13
You put out a lot of digital exhaust and you have every reason to be paranoid.”
Damn right we should be paranoid! Its not like this is America or anything. Its a shame that we don’t have any Constitutional Rights in this country like they have in the USA. Lets all go hide somewhere and pretend that we are OK with it!
Why blame O, he just made it legal and got congress to stamp it. So now its ‘legal’, as opposed to when W did it. That’s where being a const. lawyers comes in handy, you never do anything illegal, you just have to make laws that make it legal.
Don’t forget it was a conservative President (dubya) who put this into place. Obama just kept it in place.
Still think there’s any REAL difference between the two parties?
Of course there is no difference between the two parties. Does that make the Democrats less culpable for not stopping it? I thought that they were “for the little guy”? Truth, transparency, justice, honesty, “draining the swamp” and all of that other mindless, horseshit slogans they and their supporters chant. Lenin referred to this type of person as a “useful idiot”. “Meet the new boss; same as the old boss.”
Please explain how they’re supposed to “stop it” when there’s no way Congressional Republicans (or the majority of Dems — let alone the general public) would give up their security apparatus in the face of terraist threat?
Closing it down would be about as likely as getting Congress to pass a gun ban.
wall street journal - obama’s civil-liberties record questioned
http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-247657/
Not so fast.
THE HILL: Obama sponsored bill that would have made Verizon order illegal.
“You voted for it (sometimes several times), now you are getting it good and hard.”
“Not so fast.
THE HILL: Obama sponsored bill that would have made Verizon order illegal.”
Then why didn’t he stop it? Why didn’t he push for it as hard as he is BS’ing people about Obamacare? Why doesn’t he make an effort to revoke it now that he has held the bully pulpit for 5 years? Empty gesture. President Hitler.
Barack The Inversion. Polar Opposite Obama. WrongWayBarack(Turned 180 degrees). It’s all upside down and downside up. Yes is no. Black is white. East is west. Bad is good.
I’ve never seen an inversion to this degree…. ever.
I’ve never seen an inversion to this degree…. ever.
He had no choice. He just read whatever showed up in the teleprompter. I bet his handlers had good laughs after each campaign speech.
‘Ladies and Gentlemen, please stand by for an urgent message from The Teleprompter of The United States (as read by barack obama)’,
He ought to be more careful with that teleprompter, after what happened to Will Farrell in Anchorman.
He ought to be more careful with that teleprompter, after what happened to Will Farrell in Anchorman.
As long as he doesn’t go rogue JFK style, why would anyone do such a thing to him?
Obama bin Stalin. Wish I could take credit for that one, but I saw it on some chat board yesterday. Best. One. Yet.
I also specified that the NSA/FBI/similar were working on it. But the IRS/Social Security/CMS/VA whatever groups? Their systems are ancient. They don’t have the money. They didn’t get a blank check from Congress after 9/11 the way the security and military infrastructure did. In case you hadn’t noticed, PRISM was set up in 2006. Blank checks create these systems. Unless you can find the appropriation of funds that allowed those agencies to do what the NSA is doing, they aren’t doing it.
Also, Congress is being extensively briefed on these programs. That is one reason why they like them so much. When you have to spend hours every afternoon making fundraising phone calls, a few top secret security briefings go a long way to make you feel important. Do you really think they would keep their mouths shut if the same thing were happening with Social Security or tax records? No, I don’t either.
$50M for recent conferences that accomplish nothing!
Comment by polly
…But the IRS… Their systems are ancient. They don’t have the money…
Polly,
You will say anything to defend this corrupt government.
She wasn’t defending anything. In fact, she just explained one of the reasons they DON’T have the money for other projects.
And the sheeple don’t care:
“Yet majorities of the country express support for gathering phone calls, using drones and, to a lesser extent, accepting the Patriot Act.”
http://www.denverpost.com/nationworld/ci_23408152/more-americans-believe-security-trumps-privacy-public-policy
‘And the sheeple don’t care’
At this very moment, our government is sending arms to AL-Quaida in Syria. Just how freaking stupid are people in this country?
The thing I think is most interesting about all this is, observe how a free people accept tyranny. Not only will many submit to it, some will rush to defend those who take your freedom. They’ll call you names if you protest. We can’t bother with these people if we are to remain free. They are lost and convincing them they are wrong is to turn your back to the real enemy of freedom.
It’s technology and science that have changed the rules of the game. Human nature is still stuck in the stone age. What we all need is a brain upgrade so we can adapt or a massive EMP event that will destroy all electrical devices.
That’s always the excuse from govt bureaucrats….we don’t have money, we need more money. Federal spending has doubled over the past decade and there’s still not enough money. Federal spending could increase 100% every year and the bureaucrats would still complain.
http://www.barenakedislam.com/2013/05/03/russia-warns-americans-barack-hussein-obama-has-been-shipping-arms-to-al-qaeda-jihadists-in-syria-for-over-a-year/
http://www.barenakedislam.com/
It isn’t a complaint. It is an explanation. If you think that a government agency is doing huge amounts of data mining you have to look for two things and two things only:
1) lots of money appropriated to create the technology infrastructure needed to collect and sort the data
2) an absolute requirement that the government receive that information in electronic format
Now, if you looked into the FISA stuff that has just been revealed, I bet you will find that Verizon was required to turn over those records in an electronic format that was easily readable into a database or was searchable all on its own. Not sure exactly how the info from Facebook and Google and whoever is being tranmitted or mined or whatever is happening to it, but the limited info I got this morning suggests it may have involved direct access to the servers. Again - electronic format. The NSA wasn’t hiring thousands of people to transcribe the phone number data.
The people from the Tea Party groups have all been waving around written letters they received that they were required to respond to in writing. No requirements of electronic format. That isn’t how you request information when you are doing data mining.
And then there is the money. I’ll take back a small part of what I said. The VA has gotten enough money in the past decade or so to convert to an electronic health records system, though I don’t know if they have converted all their old records or if that was just for new information. But I haven’t heard about any other of the old school agencies that have gotten permission or funds to massively update their record systems. If they don’t have permission and money, they haven’t done it.
SS has moved to sending out benefits electronically to all new recipients, but that is mostly a postage/printing saving thing, not a change to their database system. As a matter of fact, it may allow them to let their database get worse as they don’t need to keep accurate track of your address anymore, just your bank/account numbers.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend…..even if he is also my enemy.
In which case, I have to decide which one of them I hate the worst. Or who is the bigger “threat”.
Which then, of course, brings up the question on who decides what the “threat” is. And “who/what?” is being threatened.
If this fails, just throw down the “Fight them over there, so we don’t have to fight them over here…” card.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend…..even if he is also my enemy.
In which case, I have to decide which one of them I hate the worst. Or who is the bigger “threat”.
Which then, of course, brings up the question on who decides what the “threat” is. And “who/what?” is being threatened.
If this fails, just throw down the “Fight them over there, so we don’t have to fight them over here…” card.
So are you for what Obama is doing, or against it?
I’m for it, unless I feel like I should be against it.
I don’t have to eliminate my “terrorist” footprint. I just have to make sure that it’s smaller than 80% of the other terrorists.
Thank you Polly for you explanations. This blog and the media are stuff full of “Obama’s gonna” do this or that, but no one is thinking of the exact mechanistics or logistics.
“Obama’s gonna”
Let me explain that again for you. First he takes away all the guns. Then he forces all white males into Sharia Law gay marriages. Then he gives away all the white womens to the coloreds. Then he has himself crowned emperor of the world and institutes global communist government. All the guns are gone, and within a few decades there are no white people. You’ll see.
http;//www.breitbart.corn/you-are-an-idiot/
But I haven’t heard about any other of the old school agencies that have gotten permission or funds to massively update their record systems.
I work in high performance data storage. Some of the projects we have supported were rumored to have been in support of these sort of operations. The money didn’t go through old school agencies as far as I know…I think it came through R&D projects like darpa. But I don’t know any facts on it, just that there were rumors and we delivered our piece…or got outbid and failed to get the work as sometimes occurs.
I’m for it, unless I feel like I should be against it.
I guess you’re wiggling around because you’re having a hard time patting Obama on the back while slapping Bush with the same hand?
having a hard time patting Obama on the back while slapping Bush with the same hand?
No, it’s easy. I’m against torture and poorly-planned wars, for collecting telephony ( I like that word) meta-data and using it to foil terrorists.
Did anyone really think you could call Wazookistan Tribal Area every weekend and the feds weren’t going to be aware of it? The usual suspects would be (very loudly) furious if someone pulled off a major terrorist act in the US, and had been here and calling Bin Laden (or whoever) every week for the year prior to it. Can you imagine Rush ripping into that?
“If this fails, just throw down the “Fight them over there, so we don’t have to fight them over here…”
I have a two-year old son and an infant. My mom got them each an American flag on a stick (one big flag and one little, cute). The older one is at an age where he’ll repeat anything you ask him to. So, I stuck a flag in each of his little hands, and said, “say, ‘We got the terrorists on the run!” He said it and I laughed, so of course he repeated it, flags still in hand. Went on for a week and died off a couple of weeks ago. Today, he sees the flag sitting there and says, “we got the terrorists on the run!” I’m going to have to get him to say it like GW, with the drawl. Baby steps.
LMAO, Pete. Your kids are going to grow up with SUCH a good sense of humor. I’m happy for you. And them.
Well CT, why would they build one when the big corps do it for them?
Plus the government is incompetent, right? They could never pull off something like this.
Well, at least all the people complaining that Washington never listens to them should be happy….
scoop up some $5,000 lots for RAL to build on while you’re there
Be prepared to lose money.
Loose money on what? We don’t have a mortgage albatross.
Oops. I forgot you have a growing pile of cash as a result of having money left over every month.
HA,
I have been stuffing money I saved by renting in my mattress. Lately my gf is complaining that the mattress is too firm and she would rather buy a house. What should I do? Please advise.
–formerly happy panda
Every time we drive by a Loan Depot or (b)Lowe’s we get a warm fuzzy feeling from the time and money we don’t waste in places like that.
Bill in Los Angeles = WIN
BiLA for President, 2016
I’m a voluntaryist. First thing I would do is resign.
A colleague of mine who works where I work in L.A. and lives five miles from me in my Phoenix address has A/C woes. 109 degrees these days in the “Valley of the Sun.”
Another colleague there sold his second home. After doing fixes and one of them was…$35,000 in new A/C system. I don’t know about all that stuff. Is it HVAC? I think the house he sold is a 2,000 square foot one, in Glibert.
Somehow I don’t even think of what my A/C at my place I rent there in Phoenix costs.
“Another colleague there sold his second home. After doing fixes and one of them was…$35,000 in new A/C system. I don’t know about all that stuff. Is it HVAC? I think the house he sold is a 2,000 square foot one, in Glibert.”
Wow, that’s expensive unless he invested in a geothermal HVAC, which is a smart move in the Phoenix area.
scoop up some $5,000 lots for RAL to build on while you’re there
I just discovered there IS a $5,000 empty lot a block & a half from my home. It was created by the recent razing of a rundown house. I would be willing to pay maybe $1,000 for it if the city would allow me to park & live in an RV on the lot — which is illegal in this city. Even the vacant lots are overpriced.
Look on the bright side - you won’t have to worry about backing up your email anymore.
It’s not a “bug”. It’s a “feature”.
sweet — so where do i sent a FOIA request to get my data back that i stupidly didn’t backup before uploading it to the cloud?
Hi from Arizona, NSA!
“Hi from Arizona, NSA!”
I would like to say hello too and while I’m at it. You guys know I have been on the waiting list for 500 rounds of 7.62 x 39 ammo from The Sportsman’s Guide for 3 GD months. Could one of you guys call over there and see what you could do about getting me bumped up to the front of the line? Any help would be appreciated.
signed
You know who
Go buy a new gun.
Bought my daughter a CZ-75 at Gander Mountain in May. All kinds of 9mm ammo is available, if you buy a new gun.
Already have a Gock 19
I had to take 2 courses to
renew my Ca R E License.
This time I had to study,
they actually made you work.
My take away (one of many)
was the buyer must ask direct questions,
or the REIC can skate around disclosure
and statutes of limitation laws
Junkie,
How much did you pay for the shack you bought?
Do you have examples of “direct questions” that a buyer should ask? Or other takeaways? One of my co-workers is looking to buy an SFH probably next summer (sorry, probably can’t stop him), and some pointers would be nice.
Nor do I want to hear clap-trap like houses “are gonna craaaater.” SFH in DC already cratered about 30-35%, at which point the bottom feeders moved in with cash, interest rates or no. If houses threaten to craaater below 2011 prices, then more bottom feeders will move in again with more cash.
The “cash buyers” didn’t help the 35% collapse now did it?
Donkey
Miss Creighterton lmao
oxide
Did anyone EVER die in this home?
When was the HVAC, roof, replaced?
(public records=permits)
Things that are excluded in the fiduciary
relationship (listing to buyer side), take
on a whole new dimension if objective
questions are asked.
(Ca law)
Want to get reasonable answers (liability
issues) hit the opposing side with good questions.
On vacation this week in north carolina
Picked up a brochure for a local house for sale
Listed under a section titled why purchase now
1. Housing prices may have already hit their lowest pointi n most cities and are starting to rise
2. According to Zillow and mortgage news daily, housing isi beginning to see continual price gains month over month
3. Mortgage rates haven’t been this low in decades
and my favorite
4. The larger your loan, the more you save by locking in a low rate.
Nothing about if interest rates rise the price of your house will crater as it is a second home location?
In other words, realtors in North Carolina are liars and cannot be trusted.
Thank you.
“4. The larger your loan, the more you save by locking in a low rate. ”
I dunno… isn’t this precisely how the wealthy invest in real estate? They “lock in” a temporarily low rate in the form of a 3-5 year ARM* mortgage, buy the house, sell in 3-5 years, and make profit from the house appreciation and MID in the pocket? More expensive house = more absolute profit at the sell time.
Of course, this only works if the house exhibits historical appreciation. In this volatile market, I wouldn’t risk it. You’re likely to make a small fortune in real estate only if you start with a large fortune (as the saying goes).
You can save even more by not buying the second home. Keep that money in your pocket.
When you are writing a check to pay a bill, you are NOT “Saving”.
You are spending, with the hope that your acquisition appreciates in the future.
Maybe I’ll go “save” some money, and acquire a 1969 L88 Corvette. With borrowed money.
Maybe I’ll go “save” some money, and acquire a 1969 L88 Corvette. With borrowed money
At least that would be fun.
“isn’t this precisely how the wealthy invest in real estate?”
LOLZ
Donkey,
The wealthy don’t “invest” in real estate. They know better.
Exactly. Their corporate shells do.
The wealthy don’t “invest” in real estate. They know better.
They sure do own a lot of big houses.
AlWog,
They do? Who?
Them rich folk.
That’s the point. They don’t. And you’re not one of them.
“The Obama climate move that nobody noticed”
http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-obama-climate-move-that-nobody-noticed/
The federal government just bumped up the cost of carbon by 60 percent.
Let me point out that this carbon price is a meaningless number. No government agency can collect a carbon tax. It’s no different than the predictions of climate scientist which have been well below forecast. If you look at the numbers the US is actually becoming a lot more efficient and net energy consumption(and emissions) are going down, not up.
Utilities will need to raise rates to compensate for loss of revenue.
http://grist.org/climate-energy/utilities-vs-rooftop-solar-what-the-fight-is-about/
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/100000-year-problem
Scientists who study climate will tell you that today’s warm temperatures and mild conditions are not normal for Earth during the past several million years. Our planet has been in a general cooling trend for 35 million years and in the grip of an Ice Age for the last 1.6 million years. What’s more, this Ice Age, known as the Pleistocene, consists of relatively short periods of warmth, called interglacials, separated by much longer periods of bitter cold, referred to as glacials. The recorded history of humankind covers only the later half of the most recent interglacial warming, though our ancient ancestors did leave messages in the form of cave art that date back to much colder times, times when the Ice Age held the world fast in its frozen embrace. Predicting the timing and duration of these periods remains a problem for scientists. Why the glacial periods should last around 100,000 years, as they have for the last million years or so, is called the 100-kyr problem. Now, a group of researchers claim they know the answer.
Like every thing else that disrupts civilization it’s the rate of change that causes the big problems. These scientists are studying cycles of 41,000 to 100,000 years but the more interesting number is how fast the human population reaches 9+ billion. The world population grew from 1 billion to 7 billion from 1800 to 2010.
When your gerbil cage starts filling up with gerbil sh*t you don’t make it better by adding more gerbils.
Infinite growth in a finite ecosystem is not possible.
famine, disease, and war are pretty good regulators.
Actually, michael, they’re not. For this reason: starving people bonk and reproduce like crazy. It’s actually a survival reaction to the threat of extinction.
Now, it does happen that species go extinct, when the factors against them are more than reproductive efforts can overcome, such as radiation. Or disease that directly affects the ability to reproduce. Or just sheer apathy.
But barring those, if you want to increase the population, starve, sicken and bomb ‘em. And give them JUST ENOUGH food so they can still bonk.
Food production is 1000 times (literally 1000 times) more efficient today than it was in 1800.
And with desalinization technology we will never run out of drinking water either.
The population could go to 20 billion and all will be well. But some people have to worry about something or else they’d be worried about not being worried enough.
And some contrarian trolls have to be contrarian about something or else they’d be worried about not being contrarian enough.
“famine, disease, and war are pretty good regulators.
I wouldn’t say “good”.
Effective, but NOT good.
“And some contrarian trolls have to be contrarian about something or else they’d be worried about not being contrarian enough.”
You call it contrarian, I call it realistic. People have been predicting the end of the world due to population growth forever. They have always been wrong.
People predicted the end of the world after the 2008 crash. They were wrong.
People predicted the end of the world due to the sequester. They were wrong.
People predict all sorts of crazy s**t primarily due to fear, like the impending collapse of the financial system (hence the price of gold). Why are you so afraid?
The population could go to 20 billion and all will be well.
That’s a big assertion to make, given that you back it up with nothing.
Consider how many Asian countries depend on fishing, while the fishing stocks are being severely depleted.
Our own midwestern breadbasket depends on aquifers for irrigation that are approaching depletion.
Things are not as rosy as you think.
“…When your gerbil cage starts filling up with gerbil sh*t you don’t make it better by adding more gerbils….”
This is so wonderful, goonie. My weekend is happy now.
20 billion?
Hahahahahahahahahhaaaaa
Not a chance it hell. Not in this century. Too many things have to change for that to be possible and the biggest and hardest will be jettisoning the current PTB.
You know, the guys with bombs and jets and tanks and ships and banks.
“The population could go to 20 billion and all will be well. ”
Probably so, but he only said, “Infinite growth in a finite ecosystem is not possible.” Heck, you may even get it to 30 million and be OK. We don’t know what the limit is, or how much science will delay the inevitable. But we know there’s a limit.
30 million = 30 billion.
“Utilities will need to raise rates to compensate for loss of revenue.”
What have I said about voodoo economics?
“The federal government just bumped up the cost of carbon by 60 percent.”
Obama, always looking out for the little guy…by making him pay more for electricity.
Didi you not read the article?
http://grist.org/climate-energy/utilities-vs-rooftop-solar-what-the-fight-is-about/
I am now generating enough spare electricity to completely cover the costs of powering a electric car or about 650+extra KWH a month. When I first installed my solar array I couldn’t afford a battery system because it would have costs close to $9,000 and I would have to replace the batteries every five years. Now I am working on the numbers and looking at buying or leasing a Nissan Leaf and hooking it up as a UPS for the house.
No range worries since I still have a gas powered car for long distance trips when needed.
Welcome to the REAL 21st century.
You may not realize this, but you are the vanguard of what will be very common in another 20 years.
People won’t buy houses without self power because they can’t afford to and electric cars will be their second vehicle of choice.
This isn’t pie in the sky prediction, but mere trend watching of both the tech and the business growth and running the numbers.
It now all adds up.
People won’t buy houses without self power because they can’t afford to and electric cars will be their second vehicle of choice.
It’s more likely that people won’t buy houses because they can’t afford to, with or without self-power. Shank’s mare will be their 1st thru 2nd vehicle of choice. Air travel will be much less common that it is now.
True dat, but those who can still buy houses will see self power as the better deal because it will be the better deal.
Electricity is cheap in the Centennial State, and 20% of our juice is wind generated and will soon be 30%.
What a waste of cotton and dye.
http://picpaste.com/pics/8f73d88bc87e87f1f4b671bae5cd95ec.1370616330.JPG
QE3 silver lining:
Rising payroll employment offset is complemented by an influx of new job seekers. The net effect is a labor market recovery masked by a rising unemployment rate. Since QE3 is not scheduled to end until headline unemployment drops to 6.5%, the time until the punchbowl is withdrawn can actually increase at the same time the recovery plays out.
In short, there has never been a better time to buy stocks and houses!
Calling all HBB techies!
What are your thoughts on the Open Compute Project?
Is it the end of proprietary servers from HP, IBM, Oracle and others, along with their proprietary versions of UNIX?
Well, HP-UX has been fading for a while. AIX is big in banking institutions and perhaps some large corps but outside that.. Oracle isn’t open about much and has pretty much helped kill Solaris. Commercial UNIX is pretty hurting, Linux continues to grow.
FWIW, Oracle is investing in Solaris. The Open Compute Project makes me wonder if they are wasting their time and resources.
Oracle also bought Java and effed it up royal.
Just like Adobe did with Dreamweaver and Flash.
And hundreds of other once great software.
Adobe was also supposed to improve PageMaker after it bought the code base from Aldus. Didn’t happen.
First I’d heard of it. Intrigued by the phrase “vanity free” as applied to servers. It seems like they’re describing something that anybody designing a data center could have chosen to do anytime they wanted.
I don’t know much about Open Project. But I’m pretty sure Obama’s peeps have been listening on all the phone calls related to it with the blessing of IBM, Oracle, HP and others. But that’s OK since a) it’s for the children and b) it’s fighting terrorism.
So you had nothing to contribute to the discussion and all you could come up with was that?
Meh. *shrug*
Good luck to them, but you can already achieve their goals with almost any flavor of Linux and commodity hardware.
Little known fact: Apache, which pretty runs 51% the Internet, is open source.
Apache Linux is pretty good too.
I think the idea is to eradicate proprietary designs once and for all. Tuis HP, IBM et al would no longer design stuff, they’d just build stuff using open source designs (or have Foxconn do it for them).
I guess they won’t need technical staff anymore.
Uhh 51%? I’d be surprised if it was that low, especially when you factor in Tomcat (another Apache.org project)
I googled “apache market” and just grabbed the first couple of results I found.
Another metrics website says 53%.
Fair ’nuff. I suspect that number is just for regular apache httpd. I would guess Tomcat probably has another 20% or so on top of that.
First Take: Jobs report shows bite of cuts
Tim Mullaney, USA TODAY 9:29 a.m. EDT June 7, 2013
The news that 175,000 new jobs were added in May is better than a stick in the eye — not great, but welcome. That there were 10,000 more new jobs than the consensus expectation of about 165,000, is good for more than just the households where someone is now working. But unemployment should be lower than 7.6% of the workforce by now.
The polite public wisdom among economists is that sequestration that began in March, and tax increases that took effect in January, are collectively tamping down 2013 growth by 1 to 1.5 percentage points, cutting what should be 3.5% growth to between 2% and 2.5%. But find the weak parts in the jobs report — and in the first-quarter report on gross domestic product — and you can see the cuts are what’s doing the damage.
Consumer-dependent industries are doing fine. In May, restaurants and bars added 38,000 jobs. Retailers added 28,000. That’s consistent with first-quarter consumer spending rising at a 3.4% annual clip. “Consumption growth has been more resilient than we expected,” consulting firm Capital Economics said last week.
Meanwhile, shrinking government shaved a full point off first-quarter growth. The federal government shed 14,000 jobs this month, not counting losses at government contractors. That continues a trend that began in the fourth quarter, before sequestration — and the biggest drops are in defense spending.
Let’s make this simple: January’s increases in payroll taxes and high-end income tax rates didn’t cut defense spending last October (the 2011 Budget Control Act did that). If they hurt growth, it would show up in car sales and in restaurant spending and hiring. But the shortfall is everywhere else.
Austerity means about 750,000 to 1.05 million fewer U.S. jobs this year, depending on whether you believe the Congressional Budget Office or Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said last month austerity will add 0.7% to the year-end unemployment rate.
It’s not as bad as in Europe, where recession is back. But continental workers might quote Bill Clinton himself to comfort those million Americans who should have jobs: “Sento il tuo dolore.”
…
A related article reported the strongest sectors for job gains were at temp staffing agencies and in food service and retail. How many $500,000 starter homes will those Lucky Duckies be snapping up?
Probably none.
This is always the strawman HBB builds up…
**SOME** people don’t make a lot of money. These people can’t afford a $500,000 house. Therefore **NOBODY** can afford a $500,000 house.
People who work in food service and retail won’t be buying expensive houses. Dentists and lawyers will. Kinda like it’s always been.
People who work in food service and retail won’t be buying expensive houses. Dentists and lawyers will. Kinda like it’s always been.
Wrong. When I was a kid, growing up in Orange County, California, most of the neighbors had what would today be considered menial or low paying jobs. Yet they lived a middle class lifestyle. Even though few had degrees.
What you describe, that only Dentists and Lawyers have a middle class lifestyle … that I witnessed during the 12 years I lived in third world Mexico City.
OK, I should have read the whole thread. Yeah, I agree, non “professionals” have never bought “expensive” homes. But they used to be able to buy ordinary homes. Now they can’t even do that.
Smithers is an aptly named troll.
“an aptly named troll”
Some people just don’t add much to the discussion, they just hang around, taking up space.
Well…. we are talking about the EddieTard. And didn’t we already establish and don’t his wet-behind-the-ears posts demonstrate that he doesn’t have much life experience?
The discussion is about $500,000 homes. Someone working at McDonald’s is not now and won’t ever and has never bought a $500,000 home. That’s not middle class in most of the country.
Someone working for $8/hr at McDonald’s will at best live in a 1 bedroom apartment in a crappy part of town. Just like he always has. If someone working for $8/hr at McDonald’s could buy a $500,000 house, nobody would aspire to much else in life than working at McDondald’s.
You guys are talking out of both sides of your mouths again. On the one hand it’s horrible that menial job workers can’t buy a house. And on the other hand it’s horrible that anyone can get a mortgage. Make up your minds.
Hey EddieTard Slithers,
Remember the marketing link you gave us to “prove” housing sales were on fire and prices were rising in Coeuur D Alene Idaho?
And remember the data we posted that shows prices falling and sales collapsing?
You’re a funny tard.
The discussion is not about 500k houses. You would know this if you hadn’t had you’re satire detection bone removed.
It’s about yet another hyped bubble that has no basis in reality because the majority of the market can’t come even close to affording ever rising prices.
It’s about the chart where the cost of living keeps rising while real wages keep falling until they eventually cross paths.
That time has come.
The consequence is a 75% retail based economy is no longer sustainable.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/29/chart-median-household-incomes-have-collapsed-during-the-recession/
http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-01/for-recent-grads-student-loan-delinquencies-reach-35-percent
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/05/03/the-housing-shell-game-prices-up-ownership-down/
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/05/17/obama-and-the-housing-boondoggle/
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/12/31/all-you-wanted-to-know-about-housing-in-three-minutes/
How many $500,000 starter homes will those Lucky Duckies be snapping up?
They won’t be buying any homes. Not even 100K homes.
You literally took the words right out of my mouth.
They will as long as debt is money. They have to.
They have to.
Or what?
*…crickets chirping…*
Or they won’t have a paid-off house to live in mortgage free when they are no longer strong enough to flip burgers? I expect to see ALOT of Grandpa Lucky Duckies living with their kids and pitching in their SS checks as a sort of rent.
But you’re not counting the losses associated with getting to the point of being “mortgage free”.
All that extra cash you’re throwing away every month because you paid a 250% premium on a house is cash you could have saved……. but you unwisely chose to throw it away.
64,000 of those jobs (at minimum) can be considered “LD” jobs.
Average pay? $12-15/hour at absolute best? $30K/ year, or thereabouts. If two of them get married/domestic partnered, 32,000 couples will gross around $60K.
So, using the old “3x income” metric, 32 thousand couples are suddenly in the market for an $180K house……but:
-This is before payroll taxes and SS deductions.
-This is before State and local income and sales taxes, which used to be around 5% annually around here, but is now approaching 15%.
Briefly checking the local fishwrap, about the only thing available in the $180K range is fixer-uppers in/near “Fort Apache”, or places in the boonies, 40 miles from the nearest “Lucky Duck” job.
All of this, of course, assumes that the government numbers are correct/unmanipulated.
Locally, out here in BFE, a lot of houses went on the market this spring. Stuff below $150K is selling. Anything above that just sits. Nobody wants to “give their house away”, so they sit.
When the owners pass on, the kids try renting the place out, because they don’t want to “give it away” either. This works, at least for a while, as long as the house is “paid for”, and not HELOCed out the azz.
“-This is before State and local income and sales taxes, which used to be around 5% annually around here, but is now approaching 15%. ”
I thought high taxes were a good thing?
At least with state and local taxes, you have some control over who spends the money.
We might actually partially agree on something. The Federal government continues to raise taxes on the Middle Class turnips, while at the same time reducing services.
You blame this on the “parasites”. IMO, the parasites are about 10% of the problem. The main problem as I see it, is that the worker bees are being taxed out the azz, while the top 1-10% get tax breaks/shelters, while getting a military/foreign policy designed to protect their investments abroad.
Gee, let me think, what do they call it when the 1%ers get more benefits than what they pay for?????
I might note that the reason our local taxes are going up is because the Feds like to mandate stuff, but never seem to send any money to comply with their mandates.
That, and millions of dollars in handouts/tax abatements to the “producers”
A related article reported the strongest sectors for job gains were at temp staffing agencies and in food service and retail.
If you could find the job reports for the past 40 years, you’d probably find that food service and retail have been among the strongest sectors for job gains for that entire period.
This really discredits the idea that vast numbers of Lucky Duckies would have higher incomes if only they went out availed themselves of higher education. It doesn’t make sense. Stores and restaurants are not going to give their cashiers and wait staff big raises if they come into work waving around a college diploma.
“Service industries”
The job reports do indeed show high growth in service industries.
Stores and restaurants are not going to give their cashiers and wait staff big raises if they come into work waving around a college diploma.
…any more than the tech company is going to move you into the corner office for getting an MBA.
KEYYYYYYRAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSH!
What was that!?
That was the sound of housing prices crashing through the floor in your neighborhood.
There ain’t nothing left but the cryin’, a life time of debt and a smoldering moon crater.
You can’t make this stuff up
Google Bans Glass From Its Own Holder Meeting
Whaaaaah the…? Eric Holder had a meeting with Google?
It was a Google Hangout and they didn’t invite us? Hmmmph!
Maybe they didn’t like Phillip Glass music in the elevator?
Wow, RIP Joey Covington (Jefferson Airplane/Starship Hot Tuna drummer). Hope you were gone before you hit the wall, bro’.
Thanks for the tunes.
“We are forces of chaos and anarchy. Everything you say we are, we are. And we are very proud of ourselves…”
“Up against the wall, motherfrackers”.
HIs final blamtikkaplowplowtonk. RIP, man. Thanks for the tunes.
“We are all outlaws in the eyes of America”.
Prophetic.
“We can be together
All your private property is
Target for your enemy
And your enemy is
We”
Weekly unemployment benefits are cut an average 10%
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/07/news/economy/federal-unemployment-insurance/index.html?iid=Lead
According to the article, the average annual benefit being paid out is about $4500. So much for people not working and instead choosing to live lavishly on unemployment. Sounds to me like the overwhelming majority hustle to find a new job, and small wonder as the weekly benefits are but a small fraction of lost income.
‘those occupiers need to occupy a shower and get a job!’
The true bailout cost:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/traceygreenstein/2011/09/20/the-feds-16-trillion-bailouts-under-reported/
$16 trillion = about $53,000 for everyman/woman/child in the US.
(someone check my math)
You can sure paper over a lot of economic pain with 16 trillion bucks.
My plan would have worked better:
-Let all of the Vampire Squids die a horrific death
-Give everyone in the USA a $25,000 check. Call it a 4 year income tax holiday.
My plan would have the virtue of the right people getting the Joshua Tree treatment. And put the money where it might have done some good on Main Street.
Yeah, it’s probably inflationary. Like our current economy isn’t, when it comes to necessities.
But they don’t count because they’re V-O-L-A-T-I-L-E.
Translation: We don’t want to count the things that inflate most due to our policies.
“The audit of the Fed’s emergency lending programs was scarcely reported by mainstream media – albeit the results are undoubtedly newsworthy.”
CBS jettisoned its “Early Show” format for “CBS This Morning” by retaining Erica Hill and adding Charlie Rose and Gayle King and adopting more of a hard-news approach.
charlie rose runs from bilderberg question, he is a confirmed …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4y8XB9pzIHU - 131k -
NY Times Editorin-Chief Jill Abramson Runs From Bilderberg Question
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8gRz0GkVYU - 157k -
Former CBS News president Richard Salant (1961 – 64 and 1966 – 79) explained the major media’s role: “Our job is to give people not what they want, but what we decide they ought to have.”
Canadian writer Ken Adachi (1929 – 1989) added:
“What most Americans believe to be ‘Public Opinion’ is in reality carefully crafted and scripted propaganda designed to elicit a desired behavioral response from the public.”
Katie, bar the door! Ritholz’s Big Picture Blog is calling BS on the housing recovery!
Ritholtz is another truth teller. It’s a small club but you’re one of them too.
Thank you.
As one former blogger said, “Why buy a house now at these massively inflated asking prices? Rent for half the monthly cost and then buy later after prices crater for 65% less.”
Is now really a great time to sign up for a 30 or 15 year loan for hundreds of thousands of dollars? Are houses the missing link for future secure retirement? They would not take away your house in the future to make sure you are compliant with future nationalized medical insurance coverage terms? Itcould not happen in the USA. Could it?
+12