Bits Bucket for June 17, 2013
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Is the emerging markets slump more of a buying or a knife-catching opportunity?
Emerging equity slump sparks huge buying opportunity
Emerging market indices fell sharply last week over fears of QE tapering in US
By Matthew Jeynes | Published 07:14
Asset allocators have hailed a buying opportunity in emerging market equities after the sector was hit by a massive sell-off last week.
Emerging market indices suffered sharp drops as investor concerns rose over fears the US Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, will begin tapering its quantitative easing programme.
The easy monetary policy has been a boon for emerging markets, but fears of its withdrawal led to sharp drops in the sector.
But asset allocators have said the market falls present a huge buying opportunity, as emerging markets now look excessively cheap, and worries about the end of quantitative easing in the US have been overplayed.
Tom Becket, chief investment officer at Psigma Investment Management, said he is looking to increase the emerging market equity weighting in his portfolios, from 7.5 per cent to 10 per cent in the balanced portfolios.
“What is happening now is the inverse of what happened in 2008, when the markets were overly optimistic on emerging markets,” he said. “They are now being overly pessimistic.”
…
Why Emerging Markets Are Still on Shaky Ground
Published: Sunday, 16 Jun 2013 | 11:26 PM ET
By: Dhara Ranasinghe | Senior Writer
Jay Director | AFP | Getty Images
A trader looks at a stocks monitor at the Philippine Stock Exchange in Manila. The market, together with stocks in other emerging markets, were hit hard last week.
Emerging markets remain vulnerable after the ugly sell-off last week, as concerns about an unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus program keep investors on edge, analysts say.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the benchmark for emerging market stocks, tumbled to its lowest level since September last week, while currencies such as the South African rand and Indonesia rupiah took a pounding.
And, in a sign of heightened concern about a sharp outflow of funds from emerging markets, Brazil, Indonesia and India have all stepped up measures to either stem the outflows or shore up battered currencies.
(Read More: Asia’s Fight to Stem Fund Outflows Just Starting)
“We think fund outflows have further to run, maybe for another month or so before markets stabilize,” Will Oswald, global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at Standard Chartered Bank, told CNBC Asia’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.
While stocks globally have been hurt by the prospect of an unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus that has provided a significant boost to risk assets, emerging markets have been especially hit hard.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down almost 10 percent so far this year, while the S&P 500, a broad measure of U.S. equities, is up more than 16 percent.
“Since May 21, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments to the Joint Economic Committee triggered a global sell-off, markets in Asia have corrected in a manner akin to a crisis,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note, referring to comments Bernanke made regarding a possible end to the Fed’s quantitative easing program.
(Read More: Why the Fed Will Try to Calm Market Nerves)
…
More Downside Ahead for Emerging Markets: Pro
Will Oswald, Global Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Research at Standard Chartered expects fund outflows out of emerging markets to last for at least another month.
More Downside Ahead for Emerging Markets: Pro
Sun 16 Jun 13 | 08:15 PM ET
Will Oswald, Global Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Research at Standard Chartered expects fund outflows out of emerging markets to last for at least another month.
Have you ever watched footage of or experienced first hand the stage in a tsunami when the sea water that flooded inland rushes back out to sea, wreaking havoc and depositing all manner of debris along the way?
ft dot com
June 17, 2013 6:59 pm
Fed likely to signal tapering move is close
By Robin Harding in Washington
Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy.
The Fed chairman has a double communications problem. Markets seem reluctant to acknowledge the improvement that is leading the Fed towards a taper of QE3. But they also appear to be assuming, incorrectly, that any taper means the Fed has become less willing to support the economy’s recovery.
Mr Bernanke is likely to push against both misperceptions, combining an upbeat message on how the strength of the economy will soon justify a taper, with a signal that further tapering depends on further improvement in the economy and in no way brings forward an interest rate rise.
When it started QE3 last September, the Fed said it would keep buying assets until there was a “substantial improvement” in the outlook for the labour market. Since then, two main developments have been driving the Fed’s move towards a taper now.
First, the main indicators of the labour market have improved. The Fed’s projection for unemployment at the end of 2013 is down from 7.75 per cent to 7.4 per cent and falling. Average payrolls growth in the past six months has been 194,000 compared with 130,000 in the six months leading up to QE3.
To taper or not to taper?
Monthly payrolls have become less volatile. The economy is weathering tax rises and federal spending cuts. Although markets have been slow to acknowledge it, all this looks like a substantial improvement.
There is still a dark side to the labour market – measures of dynamism such as rates of hiring, quitting jobs and working part time because a full-time job is not available – have barely improved. But that is offset somewhat by the second development.
When the Fed began QE3 last autumn it was working on the assumption that a lot of people who had given up looking for jobs would return once the economy improved. That may still happen – there were some signs of it in the last jobs report – but a steady flow of Fed research suggests participation will stabilise rather than bounce back.
As a result, there is a mood inside the Fed that payrolls growth of close to 200,000 a month is a lot better than it looks, and may be all that is needed to keep the unemployment rate coming down. In other words, some Fed officials’ definition of “substantial improvement” has become a bit less optimistic over time.
To add still more accommodation even as the labour market improves – which is how the Fed regards adding $85bn-a-month to its stock of assets – is like the fire brigade pumping faster even as the fire goes out. At some point the extra water does more damage than the remaining flames. But that does not mean the Fed is going to turn off the water and let the building catch fire again.
…
Investors Can’t Afford To Treat All Emerging Markets The Same
Jim O’Neill, The Daily Telegraph Jun. 16, 2013, 4:19 AM
In my first column a month ago, I raised the possibility that China’s softer growth might not be all bad for us here in the UK, as long as it is generally confined to their own production and is reflected in a period of softer commodity prices.
If that’s the case, a number of commodity-importing countries, ourselves included, will not suffer the sorts of strains on disposable incomes that we have experienced in recent years.
…
Does China face a credit crunch like that which hit the U.S. in August 2007?
It actually sounds as though the PBOC is trying to take away the punch bowl in an orderly manner to avoid a hard landing later on.
June 14, 2013 10:33 am
China debt auction failure raises liquidity fears
By Simon Rabinovitch in Shanghai
The Chinese government failed to sell all its bonds at an auction on Friday, a sign of how cash has become increasingly tight in the slowing economy.
The finance ministry sold only Rmb9.5bn ($1.5bn) of the Rmb15bn in government debt on offer, the first time in nearly two years that Beijing has fallen short of its target bond sale. The failure stemmed from a jump in money market rates that has occurred because the central bank has refused to pump liquidity into the economy despite signs of stress in the banking system.
Analysts said the sudden tightness in China’s financial system was the latest indication of how the government appears willing to tolerate slower growth to control some of the risks that have built up in the economy.
“Their choice is not whether to tighten or not, but when to tighten. The earlier they act, the lower the cost. If they waited longer, there would be more bad loans to deal with,” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist with Nomura.
After a surge in credit issuance at the start of the year, officials have taken steps to tamp down on financing flows. Their concerns have focused on the overall accumulation of debt in China as well as the lightly regulated “shadow banking” institutions that have provided many of the loans.
The central bank fuelled China’s recovery at the end of last year with regular injections of cash into the economy via its open market operations, but it has halted such injections in recent months. Meanwhile, the banking regulator has slowed the growth of shadow banking by issuing tough new rules that limit banks’ off-balance-sheet lending activities.
The results of these efforts have been most immediately clear in the money market, where rates have jumped over the past 10 days. The seven-day bond repurchase rate, a key gauge of short-term liquidity, hit 6.87 per cent on Friday, up from less than 3 per cent a month ago.
,,,
Too late.
The seven-day bond repurchase rate, a key gauge of short-term liquidity, hit 6.87 per cent on Friday, up from less than 3 per cent a month ago.
Whoa!!
Shouldn’t money be rushing into China like a tsunami-save?? I mean the large _incoming_ wave, not the retreat before tsunami.
ith those yields, on a currency that is likely to increase in value, it seems like a no-brainer—except for the little tiny fact that it’s not legal to trade their currency.
Still, I would think anyone with a means of getting hard money into the country to exchange locally would be doing so…
June 16, 2013, 10:12 p.m. EDT
China exposed as Abenomics trade ends
Commentary: Exiting foreign money risks credit crunch
By Craig Stephen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — The violent swings in the yen and Nikkei Averge in recent weeks threaten to spell the end of the Abenomics trade.
As this leads to an unwinding of the yen carry trade, China’s highly leveraged economy could be exposed as this source of “hot money” funding dries up.
China is already showing fresh signs of financial stress. After a steep spike in interbank rates last Friday came a failure of a government-bond auction as cash becomes increasingly tight. There has also been a weakening in the yuan, as authorities allowed the tightly controlled currency to slip 0.3%.
There is wider market dislocation in Asia, with investors pricing in an end to cheap money as the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a step back from quantitative easing and considers “tapering” its asset purchases.
But perhaps more attention should be focused on the less orderly monetary-policy transition of world’s third-largest economy, Japan.
…
At least China home prices are still going up.
June 17, 2013, 10:03 p.m. EDT
China home prices rise further in May
By Michael Kitchen
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Chinese housing prices in the nation’s largest cities maintained their upward trend in May, according to data out Tuesday from the National Bureau of Statistics. In its survey covering the 70 large and medium-sized urban centers, 65 showed gains for newly built homes during May, while 3 showed declines and 2 were flat. Compared to May 2012, all but one city showed a rise. Among prices for existing homes, 64 cities showed average gains, 3 showed declines and 3 were unchanged. Existing-home prices rose in 67 of the 70 cities compared to the year-earlier period. The gains offered mixed news for property shares, as they also make further policy moves to cool the real-estate market more likely.
…
The most accurate predictions foretell events which are either in progress or have already occurred, though not yet widely publicized.
JIM O’NEILL: We Could See A Bond Crash
Steven Perlberg
Jun. 14, 2013, 12:33 PM
REUTERS/Reuters Staff
As the market speculates on when the Fed will begin to slow its quantitative easing program, former Goldman Sachs Asset Management chairman Jim O’Neill isn’t alone in believing a taper would mean turbulence for financial markets.
But for O’Neill, it would also “not be a stretch” to see 5% yields on the 10-year Treasury, reports Bloomberg.
Given the 10-year’s current 2.11% yield, that would imply a big sell-off in the bond market.
O’Neill talked about that — and his prediction for a bond crash — in his Bloomberg View column earlier this week:
Investors are already pulling money out of bonds and emerging markets like crazy. O’Neill goes on:
O’Neill believes that once the “love affair” with bonds subsides, investors will fall back in love with equities, even if they too feel a pang from the taper.
If you are going to panic, make sure you panic first. I’d hate to be a retiree with all my savings in bond funds and then get handed a statement showing NAV’s dropped 20%……..
Can Wall Street expect a massive “market reassurance” rally this week?
June 17, 2013, 5:17 a.m. EDT
Stock futures up sharply on Fed clarity hopes
By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock market futures made a strong push north on Monday, as investors grew hopeful that this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting will soothe anxieties over when and how the central bank will pull back the throttle on stimulus.
…
If I had a dollar for every time I heard or read “stocks up on hopes” I’d be rolling in dough.
WHY are they hopeful that the Federal Reserve will not pull back on QE? Has Ben said something? Where is this hope coming from? Perhaps the myriad authors of these articles is simply grasping at straws to explain the inexplicable rise in today’s stock market (i.e., volatility).
Has Ben said something?
They seem to have bought into his late-April head-fake.
I thought he was just engaging in the usual, regularly-scheduled don’t-worry-we-won’t-let-inflation-take-root saber-rattling rhetoric.
June 17, 2013, 1:57 a.m. EDT
Gold rises as some bet on Fed inaction
By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Futures prices for gold rose Monday, stepping higher as some investors wagered the Federal Reserve will hold off on tapering its monetary stimulus program this week.
Gold futures for August delivery rose $1.20, or 0.1%, to $1,388.80 an ounce in electronic trade, with the gain for the dollar-denominated commodity recorded despite an advance in the U.S. dollar.
…
June 17, 2013, 3:24 a.m. EDT
Europe stocks rise with Fed meeting in focus
By Sara Sjolin
LONDON (MarketWatch) — European stock markets opened higher on Monday, tracking Asia stocks higher and with investors speculating whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will make any changes to its monetary policy when it meets later this week. Most analysts expect the central bank to keep interest rates low and maintain its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program this month.
…
why does wall street keep trying to give main street the impression problems have gone away? when in reality the financial situation has gotten worse by trying to paper over all the problems. It is nothing but a chirade.
“The “wealth effect” isn’t what it used to be … During the boom years, Americans borrowed lavishly against rapidly appreciating home values. One Federal Reserve study estimated the extra cash at $700 billion annually from 2001 to 2005. Now psychology has changed. Careless optimism has given way to stubborn cautiousness. Wealth gains don’t translate into similar amounts of higher spending.
People better appreciate that houses and stocks are risky assets … They’re more reluctant to borrow and spend against them, because today’s gains could become tomorrow’s losses. Americans became more defensive … Jobs are scarce; incomes are sluggish. People are not just paying down debt; they’re building barriers against hazards they can’t foresee.”
http://m.washingtonpost.com/opinions/robert-j-samuelson-why-arent-americans-spending-their-record-wealth/2013/06/16/5d677b7e-d50a-11e2-8cbe-1bcbee06f8f8_story.html
Record wealth? what a sham, the author never differentiates where the wealth is being held. Could it all be in the hands of the wealthy?
you got a problem with
crony capitalismthe invisible hand of the free market, buddy?Yeah, let’s see some some number crunching exclusive of the wealth of the top 1%.
It’s well known that _all_ the economic gains in the past decade could be accounted for by looking at the top 1% (by assets, not income). All of it.
We are in the midst of the greatest wealth transfer in the history of this country. The wealthy have total control of corporations, law, and the government.
I admit I was surprised that the comments tended into the anti-1% direction. I thought Samuelson was making a much narrower point:
2006:
House prices were up.
People thought they had wealth, so when they refied, they took out cash and spent it, to the tune of $700 billion.
2013:
House prices are up.
People are refi-ing, but they they aren’t taking out cash or spending it. Why not? I guess they don’t think they have wealth.
Very simply, the middle class is banking on another crash and hanging onto their cash in the form of equity. I don’t see where the 1% figures into this narrow example.
“Yeah, let’s see some some number crunching exclusive of the wealth of the top 1%.”
Like this?
http://www.mybudget360.com/top-1-percent-control-42-percent-of-financial-wealth-in-the-us-how-average-americans-are-lured-into-debt-servitude-by-promises-of-mega-wealth/
hanging onto their cash in the form of equity.
LOLZ
I guess they don’t think they have wealth.
It’s the same wealth they thought they had in 2006. The ones who were inclined to spend it already did.
I don’t see where the 1% figures into this narrow example.
Sure the 1% figures into this example: all of the benefit of the bail-outs flowed to _THEM_!!
We are facing a long, drawn-out affair, to a significant extent because the extremely-wealthy were saved, while main street was thrown under the bus.
This thing would have been over _way_ sooner without all of the manipulation.
why does wall street keep trying to give main street the impression problems have gone away?
So that J6P will get into more debt?
So that J6P will get into more debt?
Ding! Ding! Ding!!
We have a winner, ladies and gentlemen…
So the death spiral remains in slow motion vs the scarier alternative. That way they feel they are in control of it.
I don’t find the alternative scary. I find it exhilarating. Then again, I like to actually allow market fundamentals to work.
Luckily for Wall Street investors playing with margin debt, the stock market always goes up.
Margin Debt Red Flag For Stock Market Crash
Editor’s Desk: Wall Street Sector Selector ETF News Alerts, MW2 | Wall Street Sector Selector Staff | June 10, 2013 2:33 pm
Margin debt in U.S. stock markets are at record highs and could warn of a stock market crash.
Margin debt reached record highs in April and history proves that high levels of margin debt are often associated with stock market crashes or severe declines.
Investors pile into margin debt when they feel like the markets have nowhere to go but up and so they seek to amplify their returns by the use of leverage.
Famous periods of high margin debt include 1929, 2000, and 2007, all of which were followed by significant stock market (NYSEARCA:SPY) declines.Margin debt for April came in at a record $384 billion compared to the previous high of $381 billion which was logged in 2007, just before the most recent financial crisis and bear market meltdown. Comparable levels of margin debt in history are associated with the stock market crash of 1929, also known as Black Tuesday, and the “Tech Wreck” of 2000.
…
“Luckily for Wall Street investors playing with margin debt, the stock market always goes up.”
+1 “Bernanke the Croupier” is standing at the ready.
FWIW, margin debt is the underpinning of America. Heck, with $3,000 and a lousy FICO score you can move into a $225,000 house. What other country offers that sweet deal?
“FWIW, margin debt is the underpinning of America.”
Great insight to note that low-downpayment FHA loans are the poor man’s margin debt.
Has anyone noticed that there are ads on the radio and TV about getting “back” into the stock market. There was one on yesterday when I was watching the US Open. They showed three different couples talking about getting back into the stock market. I think we are in for a major correction and the real players know when to get in and out.
I saw some of those ads, I didn’t see a big difference in those ads compared to those from similar broadcasts since the 08/09 meltdown. The conversations are actually realistic–my wife and I have those conversations about “where should we put the extra money” about once a month when we do the budget (only takes us 10-15 minutes now since we got disciplined and organized about it). I think the older couples they show are in a bad situation because the math isn’t going to work out no matter what they do. If you pulled out in 08 or 09 after losing half your investments, I don’t see how you can catch up. Most people weren’t saving enough anyway. And many borrowed against their house. No “financial expert” is going to be able to make that math work.
On a side issue, what did you think of the course? I liked seeing a shorter but more difficult course for a change. I’d be more interested in actually playing golf if there were more courses like Merion.
The shorter courses can be just as difficult. When it is the US open they are going to trick out the course to make if very difficult. Thick deep rough and lighting fast greens.
The ad sounds like a dog whistle for muppets.
What stage of recovery has the U.S. stock market reached at this point?
- Optimism
- Excitement
- Thrill
- Euphoria (”Wow, am I Smart.” / Point of Maximum Financial Risk)
Which is it?
June 17, 2013
5 charts to tell if stock buyers are too bullish
How investor emotions signal when to buy and when to bail
The cycle of market emotions
Feelings. Nothing more than feelings. That about sums up the stock market on any trading day.
Investment return and risk are joined at the gut. No pain, no gain, and, above all, no free lunch. Ideally we’d all approach investing with a cool hand and a poker face. But people being people, emotions get in our way — especially when real money is at stake and headlines and talking heads scream “buy” or “sell.”
There’s no escaping the cycle of market emotions — that roller-coaster ride from optimism to despair and back. But understanding where we are on this track can keep you from going off the rails and even lead to well-timed gains. Sentiment charts are popular on Wall Street — passed around to spur debate about where stocks might be headed next. Here’s a look at ways to decipher the market’s moods.
— Jonathan Burton
How is the value of the “alternative assets” segment of your investment portfolio holding up?
Market Extra Archives
June 16, 2013, 7:32 a.m. EDT
Bitcoin prices lose a bit of their wild side
Compared to 70% decline in April, last week was relatively calm
By Saumya Vaishampayan, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Bitcoin, the decentralized digital currency that has enthused gold bugs and tech geeks, emerged as the Wild West of financial markets earlier this year. But Bitcoin prices appear to have been tamed of late, making moves in line with stocks, bonds and other currencies.
Global assets have swung in recent weeks, as investors recalibrate their expectations for central bank stimulus. With a full-throttle Bank of Japan program on one side, and the prospects of a slowing of the Federal Reserve’s big bond buys on the other, investors have crowded into select investments and then stampeded out of them just as quickly.
Last week, the dollar fell 3.4% against the Japanese yen, according to FactSet data, while Japanese stocks fell 1.5%.
Bitcoin prices, as much as they can be tracked, fell about 10% in the same period. Prices fell to $100.34 on June 14 from $111.32 on June 7, according to Mt. Gox, a popular Bitcoin trading exchange. That’s downright stable compared to the 70% drop in seven days in April, according to Gold.net, a pricing website that pulls data from Mt. Gox.
…
June 17, 2013, 6:32 a.m. EDT
Crude futures top $98 on Syria worries
By Sara Sjolin and Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — U.S. crude-oil futures rose to a four-month high on Monday, after the conflict in Syria stoked worries that the violence could spread to other countries in the oil-producing Middle East region.
Crude for July delivery added 49 cents, or 0.5%, to $98.34 a barrel, around a level not seen since early February.
…
Crude is grotesquely overpriced given economic fundamentals. Demand is down for years upon years.
It’s currently bouncing up on the shifting U.S. stance towards Syria.
“Crude is grotesquely overpriced given economic fundamentals. Demand is down for years upon years.”
From an OECD study released early this year
“A return to world [economic] growth to slightly below pre-crisis rates would be consistent with an increase in the price of Brent crude to far above the early-2012 levels by 2020. This increase would be mostly driven by higher demand from non-OECD economies – in particular China and India. The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth. Sudden changes in the supply or demand of oil can have very large effects on the price in the short run.”
All I care about is this, particularly the historic oil price graph:
http://www.evsroll.com/History_of_crude_oil_prices.html
Crude is grotesquely overpriced given economic fundamentals. Demand is down for years upon years.
You are seriously mis-stating the facts.
US _domestic_ demand is down. Global demand is up, up, up.
Pricing is set at the margin by global demand, not domestic demand.
Not only is domestic demand down, but production is up. Prices are based entirely on speculation. There is a glut of oil.
You call it “speculation”.
I call it “price fixing”.
Do gold stocks count?
They are so hated and at such low price/book ratios. Many pay from 2-4% dividends.
Yes - I am starting to dip the big toe in that water.
“Buy when everyone else is selling; sell when everyone else is buying.”
Seems reasonable.
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” - Buffett
Say what you will about his policy/taxation views, the man understands how to invest for the long term.
I have no problem with his policy views; just think he shares them a bit too often, given that this is not a politics blog.
I wasn’t directing the politics comment to you…just the generic “you”. I’ve seen lots of people “pooh-pooh” Buffett’s investing commentary because they don’t like his political views. I’m just saying that when he comments on how to invest for the long-term, you should probably pay attention.
“Buy when everyone else is selling; sell when everyone else is buying.”
Tell that to those who bought houses in 2008.
Tell that to those who bought houses in 2008.
Or to those who bought the NASDAQ on the dip…
June 14, 2013, 6:15 a.m. EDT
The Fed won’t taper as long as inflation is low
Commentary: Fed’s targets are further away than when QE3 began
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
The Federal Reserve has failed to reflate the economy.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The markets have jumped the gun again: The Federal Reserve will not back down anytime soon.
The biggest financial story of the past month is the big selloff. Investors began to price in their expectation that the Federal Reserve may soon declare “Mission Accomplished” and begin to taper the amount of its monthly bond purchases.
In particular, yields on bonds have soared on the belief that the Fed will no longer be buying so many Treasurys, and on the parallel belief that any tapering by the Fed must mean the economy is getting closer to normal.
A normal economy would mean normal bond yields of around 4% to 5% for the benchmark 10-year Treasury, instead of the current 2.2%, or last month’s 1.7%.
But the market’s expectations for much higher rates ignore just how far the economy is away from normal. In fact, right now the Fed is even further away from its dual goals of full employment and stable inflation than it was last September when it announced the QE3 bond buying program.
…
The Fed is not going to taper. They will not let the stock market and economy implode.
My guess: Actual tapering will be preceded by a few years of future-taper sabre rattling.
taper rattling?
More accurately, taper jawboning…
Just in case anyone thinks gun control works.
When do we withdraw from Chicago?
If they only created some more “gun free” zones. Surely it would work.
———————-
Bloody weekend violence leaves 7 dead, 46 shot
Chicago Tribune | June 16, 2013 | Peter Nickeas, David Jackson, Mitch Smith and Jennifer Delgado
At least 33 people were shot — six of them fatally — Saturday afternoon through Father’s Day Sunday, stretching from 94th Street and Loomis Avenue on the South Side up to about North Avenue and North Pulaski Road on the Northwest Side, according to authorities. The youngest person who was killed during one of the bloodiest weekends in Chicago this year was 16.
Shootings from Friday afternoon into Saturday left another 13 people shot, 1 fatally. The combined tally resulted in 46 people shot, and seven killed this weekend. Last year at about the same time, there were 53 people shot, nine fatally in one weekend.
The violence must have resulted from all those kids scrambling to find last-minute Fathers’ Day cards to give to their fathers to thank them for being such involved, loving parents.
What is wrong with these people’s marksmanship? Figures that poor indicate intentional attempt to wound not kill.
Maybe. Have you ever seen kids that nobody ever taught how to shoot trying to shoot accurately? It can be kind of funny to watch, especially if they don’t understand the 3d nature of the sight picture.
If I ever teach beginning shooting instead of printing out what the sights should look like on a 2d piece of paper I’m going to make a front and rear sight out of ping pong paddles and make them hold the rear sight close and the front sight far away and actually see what it means to move them around independently until they see what they are supposed to see.
And besides all that, even trained soldiers and hunters frequently shoot poorly in the excitement of “the real thing”.
I read an article once that stated that in gunfights most people are actually hit in the extremities.
I also read an article about NYPD that stated that when firing at dogs, the police hit 55% of the time while they only achieved a 35% hit ratio when firing at humans.
that when firing at dogs, the police hit 55% of the time while they only achieved a 35% hit ratio when firing at humans.
Dogs are also rarely shooting back…
They know how to stop it. New York used to be this way till Giuliani came in and used simple, obvious methods to neutralize offenders. It does involved creating a militarized, zero-tolerance police force and an aggressive, competent prosecutorial system. And an attitude of zero tolerance for criminal behavior.
The offenders, their families and supporters will squeal in the immediate term, but in the long run it actually benefits them the most with safer neighborhoods with more economic opportunity and a higher standard of living.
Rahm Emmanuel likes to project an air of ruthlessness and power to the media and his political competitors, but the real world is making him look feeble and ineffectual in the most basic task for a civilian leader - securing a safe living space.
Some of you might recall that hansen and I had a little exchange a couple of days ago regarding illegals and their “valedictorian” children in the US. Well, over the weekend, a mob of 100-300 (the reports are unclear on the exact number) of these vile, brutish, mestizo thugs and their Anglo enablers (looks to me like some fatuous retirees with too much time on their hands) decided to bus themselves to the home of Kris Kobach, the Secretary of State of Kansas and the architect of the Arizona immigration law and “protest”.
Fortunately he and his family weren’t at home at the time, but this is what happens when you speak out against these thugs. They engage in home invasion, and your private property means nothing to them. From reading around the internet, I noted that even some Mexicans were appalled by the incident.
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/34407863
http://twitchy.com/2013/06/15/open-borders-mob-descends-on-home-of-kansas-secretary-of-state/?utm_source=autotweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter
So there’s your “dreamers”, the home invaders. Don’t agree with them? Well, maybe someday the bus will stop at your home.
Diversity our strength
Guns only belong in the hand of the police and military
Only bigger and bigger government can keep us safe and help the economy
“A surge in migrant traffic across the Southwest border into Texas has resulted in a milestone: the front line of the battle against illegal crossings from Mexico has shifted for the first time in over a decade away from Arizona to the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas.
Now the Rio Grande Valley has displaced the Tuscon enforcement zone as the hot spot, with makeshift rafts crossing the river in increasing numbers, high-speed car chases occurring along rural roads and a growing number of dead bodies turning up on ranchers’ land, according to local officials.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/17/us/as-us-plugs-border-in-arizona-crossings-shift-to-south-texas.html?pagewanted=all
So there’s your “dreamers”, the home invaders.
Weren’t they just exercising their right to assemble?
Weren’t they just exercising their right to assemble?
It’s called “right to assemble” when you assemble in a public place.
It’s called “trespassing” when you assemble uninvited on someone’s lawn.
“You don’t own that”
Exactly. These animated turds don’t believe that others own anything, it’s all theirs for the taking and if you don’t agree, you’re a bigot. So they’re going to teach you a lesson, through intimidation and home invasion gangbanging.
No wonder their own country hates them so much they puke them out on the US.
The front yard, not fenced off or marked “no trespassing”, is a rather grey area. After all, people are allowed to walk up to your front door and knock, right?
It sounds like these people gathered in front of the house, protested peacefully, and left some shoes on the front porch as symbolic of deported fathers, or some such.
Hardly a “home invasion”. Sounds like a peaceful political protest to me. But I guess it’s different when “they” do it?
300 angry protestors show up your front door and walk all over you property? I am sure you would be calm, cool and colective. Maybe even serve them some ice tea.
Isn’t this how Benghazi started according to obama and clinton? Just a peaceful bunch of citizens protesting…
Imagine 300 skin heads showing up on the front lawn of the President of La Raza…
300 angry protestors show up your front door and walk all over you property?
This is one of the rare times I agree with bananaboy. We coddle illegals in this country.
Maybe even serve them some ice tea.
That would probably be a brilliant strategy. Kill ‘em with kindness.
Didn’t someone in a similar situation do just that, serve the protesters lemonade? Or maybe I’m remembering an old Doonesbury strip.
Should people be allowed to protest at someone’s house? If they say in the street or on the sidewalk?
stay in the street/sidewalk
Well, clearly you didn’t watch the video, where they came right up in his doorway and on his steps with megaphones.
“300 angry protestors show up your front door and walk all over you property?”
This is what they’ve done on a macro level in the US, showing up at the front, (er, uh, actually the back) door and walking all over our property. Brutish scum, gangbanging home invaders.
You know, Can’tusi, I’ve been accosted and harassed by numerous caucasians in my life, yet I don’t hold it against whitey — even the ones here in our country illegally from Canada and Denmark. Which is not to say I support cheaters any more than you do (maybe even less, actually), simply that when you compare high school valedictorians to thugs and home invaders it makes you sound unhinged.
Academic excellence is something to be encouraged, not disparaged because it was achieved by someone who happens to be (horrors) bilingual.
If they want to protest against the actions or stance of the Secretary of State of Kansas, then they should do so at the Kansas State Capitol building, or some other appropriately symbolic public place. Now the man probably feels like he and his family are not safe at home. Doesn’t that smack of terrorism?
I would be cool if this were a bankster’s house, but banksters are not elected.
I would be cool if this were a bankster’s house, but banksters are not elected.
So elected officials should have more protections from protesters than the rest of us?
Elected officials should never be threatened with violence. I would say these people did enough to make the guy feel threatened (at his home). Banksters are different. Every now and then, one of them needs to be rolled.
Is protesting at anyone’s home inherently threatening? Or just at elected officials’ homes?
Because quite frankly, I think that was one of the least threatening group protests I have ever seen.
Yes, if people come to my house in a large group to express their discontent with me, I would tend to get the pitch fork.
I would tend to get the pitch fork.
What if they did the same at your place of work?
The owner might ask them to leave. If they would not leave, then the receptionist would call the police, since they would be trespassing on private property.
since they would be trespassing on private property.
What if they were on the street or sidewalk?
What if they were on the street or sidewalk?
They are welcome to protest in a public place. The sidewalk is generally considered a public place, and I would support their right to assemble there until such time as the police judge them to be blocking vehicle or pedestrian traffic, and ask them to move along.
However, the moment that they stepped off the public sidewalk, and they walked en masse onto his walkway (his PRIVATE walkway), his front porch, his grass: clearly trespassing.
Sorry alpha, you’re wrong on this one.
I would be cool if this were a bankster’s house, but banksters are not elected.
It’s not even ok if it’s a bankster’s house—and I hate me some banksters.
Public space is public space, and private property is private property.
It is ok to protest in one; it is not ok to protest in the other.
Simple.
It is ok to protest in one; it is not ok to protest in the other.
So it’s okay to protest in front of someone’s house, if you’re in the street or on the sidewalk?
However, the moment that they stepped off the public sidewalk, and they walked en masse onto his walkway (his PRIVATE walkway), his front porch, his grass: clearly trespassing.
Sorry alpha, you’re wrong on this one.
I didn’t state my position on protesting in someone’s yard, merely pointed out that it’s a grey area of trespass, and wanted to know other’s opinions on protesting at someone’s house. I also still think it was a pretty non-threatening protest, though some seem to see it as the height of outrage (oddly enough, many are the same people who call for banksters heads on pikes. Not sure how we get there if we’re not allowed to protest anywhere people feel threatened).
Personally, “300″ people protesting on my front sidewalk would be pretty intimidating to me.
Immigration Activists March on Home of Kansas Secy of State
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M87AlUhhN7Q
Wow, a guy talking about love of your fellow man and family, through a megaphone, standing next to a ten-year old kid on a front porch. The protesters (more like maybe 50 people, with 50 onlookers on the road, who may be protesters who chose not to go on the property) are then promptly led back to their buses, singing “When the saints go marching in”. Then one of the protest leaders tells people to watch out for traffic, and not get in the way of cars. They leave a dozen shoes and a little sign on the porch. The whole thing takes less than 5 minutes.
The horror.
So, to get back to my question, should people be allowed to protest at private dwellings?
Yes. They should also be allowed to defend such private dwellings against unnatural encroachment, trespass, or interference with their right to peaceful enjoyment of their property.
This is PRECISELY why many municipalities choose to maintain local police departments.
They should also be allowed to defend such private dwellings against unnatural encroachment
Is walking to your front door unnatural encroachment? Maybe when 50 people do it?
Can you open fire (”stand your ground”) in such a situation? What if they’re peaceful protesters?
My front door is about 1/2 mile and three locked gates from my driveway, and I’ve never lived anywhere that had a sidewalk, so it’s really not much of an issue for me. Also my doorbell weighs close to 200 pounds.
There is one sure-fire way to prevent yourself from being deported away from your family: Don’t be an illegal immigrant!
“There is one sure-fire way to prevent yourself from being deported away from your family: Don’t be an illegal immigrant!”
But then who will join all the gangs like MS-13 that American gang members refuse to join?
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®
‘colorado’s hot real estate market has put some buyers in the prickly position of having to decide just how much they’re willing to pay for a property — even if it means paying more than it’s currently worth.
bidding wars not seen here since the turn of the millennium are slamming into once-sluggish sales that depressed prices long enough that current appraisals sometimes can’t catch up.
that leaves some wondering whether a new mini-bubble is inadvertantly being created…’
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_23475772/colorado-housing-market-buyers-caught-price-squeeze
Yes a bubble has been blow in the Denver area.
No its not a mini-bubble its a big-bubble.
No, It is not inadvertantly being created.
Yes it will pop and many will be upside down again.
I know that many are using ARMs an 80/20 in the Denver area in desperation.
We never learn.
Am watching it from the sidelines, two 30-something people I know are recently engaged and are getting sucked into the frenzy now. Looking forward to hearing them tell me they couldn’t afford to buy an Epic Ski Pass for next year because the mortgage albatross is eating up all their cash. Have fun spending your weekends at Loan Depot and arguing with your new wife about how broke you are
Isn’t Dodd Frank a wonderful piece of legislation?
It’s so complex, and so far reaching that there a bazillion things they need to document OTHER THAN fixing the things that actually allowed the bubble in the first place.
So, they have been focusing their attention on the things that hinder capital investment into businesses for the past nearly THREE YEARS, and have not yet completed the things that might slow the formation of the next bubble, namely the Volcker Rule, and the Qualified Mortgage Requirements. At this pace, it will be a decade before all the rules are written.
And so now, we are back to financially driven madness, because the important parts of Dodd Frank are getting neutered by the banking lobby, and we are so far past the crash that there isn’t enough voter outrage to counter the lobby.
Bang up job, Congress.
Longer laws are not better laws…they allow loopholes and evasion.
“The massive housing inventory problem grows by the day as the boomer demographic continues to age out permanently leaving an additional 35 million excess empty houses.
And being the depreciating asset housing has always been, combined with massive and growing inventory means falling prices for the next two decades or more.
Housing is still massively overpriced.
BINGO
By a funny coincident…
There are 35 million illegals just waiting for free citizenship and all the government house goodies that goes along with it…
the inventory in certain DC metro areas is abysmal…housing prices in some areas are higher than they were at the height of the bubble.
doesn’t inflation typically start where the money is? lot’s of money in DC.
Re-post from last week: the $750,000 metro DC “starter home”
http://m.washingtonpost.com/realestate/how-much-home-can-you-buy-for-750000/2013/06/13/4761c1ce-d387-11e2-a73e-826d299ff459_gallery.html
Which begets the long standing question;
“Why buy a house at these massively inflated prices? Rent for half the monthly amount and buy later after prices crater for 65% less.”
In Phoenix you can not rent for half the price of owning. I am renting out a very nice 3 bedroom 1,600 sq. ft. house in Peoria for $1,200 a month. The house rented in two weeks because it is so nice. You can easily buy a comprable house for $1,200 a month, but then you would be responsible for the HOA and maintenance which my tenant currently does not have to pay. This rent for half the cost of owning was true in Phoenix back in 2007 when my Peoria house would have sold for 260K - not now.
“then you would be responsible for the HOA and maintenance which my tenant currently does not have to pay”.
And there is your disconnect. Stack on taxes and insurance.
My house payment for the house is $820 dollars a month which does include taxes and Insurance. I bought the house in 1992 and refinanced to a 15 year loan in 2000. The HOA is $75 a month which includes front yard landscaping and a pool. For $2,400 a month you could buy a really nice place in Phoenix with all costs included.
My payment is $820 a month which includes taxes and insurance. I bought the house in 1992 and refinanced in 2000 to a 15 year mortgage. The HOA is $75 a month. The rent payment covers all my costs including the $79 dollar a month property management company.
” I bought the house in 1992″
Play word games much?
“For $2,400 a month you could buy a really nice place in Phoenix with all costs included.”
+1 A really, really nice place — not middle-class.
FWIW, $2,400/month is a lot of money especially when your children become teenagers and have expenses. Realistically your home’s PITI and HOA shouldn’t cost more than 30% of your take home pay. That said, how many Phoenix peeps, even dual income yuppies, take home $8,000 after deductions?
refinanced in 2000 to a 15 year mortgage.
Why the “word games”, HA? “Bought” is common-usage, even if you buy with a loan.
And with a 15-yr in 2000, he is quite close having it paid off.
Universally awful choices in that $750k range. It is bizarre to me that DC has become as expensive as NYC area. But at least places in the NYC area have a beter QoL… some of these DC area places like Fredricksburg and Rockville were complete holes until the last decade. Compare that to places like Summit or Chatham, NJ, which are much nicer at the same or less cost. Basically, DC is out of control.
Give it time. Post big-gov will play out just like post industrial. And it will be painful.
“Post big-gov”
That will never happen. The invisible army of private sector, for profit, government contractors will NEVER stop growing. I gave S a referral for one of our open analyst positions, I hope she gets it so I get the referral bonus.
And remember: Feds drool, contractors RULE!
Remind me what happened again in Greece, Spain, Zimbabwe, etc.?
The one good thing about government contractors. When you don’t want them anymore, you just don’t renew their contract.
No hard feelings, no pensions to pay out and no unemployment compensation.
FYI - Philly and Chicago are about to lay-off about 800 government workers each. Camden fired its whole police department.
Government can shrink - usually it does so when it has no other option (or runs out of other people’s money).
Hate the game, not the player.
And regarding “no unemployment compensation”, that is incorrect. Federal government contractors pay in to FUTA/SUTA.
But you are correct about government “shrinking”, every time a Fed in our office retires, they are replaced by a contractor employee.
This is not the municipal government of Philadelphia or Chicago.
Regards, goon.squad.ctr@xxx.xxx.mil
When you don’t want them anymore, you just don’t renew their contract.
———————–
This can’t happen because, these days, gov’t contractors are performing essential services without which DoD, DHS, CMS could not function. Private contractors cost a lot more and due things that would’ve been unimaginable before the Iraq War.
In addition, private contractors have a lot more protections in the law than federal employees. The right to sue in court is a big one. Private contractors outmuscle the government by using big firms while the fed gov’t has inadequate legal staffing.
do*
Freaking mobile……
“That will never happen.”
Sure it will. It already happening. You and I aren’t gov, we’re contractors and consultants.
Contracting is the death knell for post big-gov. What was once DC centric will be spread thin and wide across the entire country.
“The one good thing about government contractors. When you don’t want them anymore, you just don’t renew their contract.
No hard feelings, no pensions to pay out and no unemployment compensation.”
And in the private sector too. It’s a two way street of course. There is no “job security” and in exchange the pay is higher. Give up “security” get more pay.
And I put job security in quotes because in reality there is no such thing. A W2 cube dweller can be let go as easily as a contractor. Only difference is the cube dweller makes $100K a year as a W2, the contractor doing the exact same work, but as a 1099, makes $100/hr which translates to $200K a year. IMO, the latter is a much better deal.
For the first time in history, you posted something truthful.
It is actually better than that. In many cases there is no contract, a purchase order instead. So the client tells the consultant his purchase order is extended through another six months.
Bam! A few weeks later a project is canceled and the client walks out the consultant and takes his badge.
Happened at my gig in Florida in 2012. There are signs I will be out the door very soon in L.A. Projects are on shaky ground. A big one was put on hold. Today I am told that is extended six months. Direct hires will be given first dibs to bump me off.
we work in different worlds, bill. i am a w-2 employee of a contractor with a dod contract through 2017. please school the hbb on the differences between these…
1099 or W-2. It’s great cha-ching either way.
A W-2 employee of a contractor with a DOD contractor is expected to be working long term with the contractor. Your contractor has various projects which they can put in on should your current project run out of money. Your employee buys all your disability income insurance, you get paid vacations, and your health insurance might even be paid for as part of your compensation.
A Con-W2 is working for a job shop that has a contract with the…contractor who has a DOD contract. Or the job shop might deal directly with the government. Or the Con-W2 might be in the purely commercial arena (Amazon, Google). In my agreements I note the client can dismiss me at anytime.
When things get thin the less experienced people are let go. In many cases these are contractors who are very new to the product line. After them some W2s are let go.
It gets interesting when the admin overhead is calculated per employee. Sometimes the employees are more expensive per hour than what the Con-W2’s job shop charges the client per hour.
Job security is nonetheless non-existent for the Con-W2.
BTW: I have a contract with my job shop. To be clear I do not know of a “contract” between my job shop and the client. I do know of the purchase order and I know how much my shop is charging the client.
Smithers, even though an employee might make $100k per year plus maybe $30,000 more in bennies, the overhead for that employee plus the pay and compensation of the employee might be higher than what a Con-w2 charges. Or even a 1099.
This is frustrating to some direct hires where I work. I know that my shop charges around $80 less per hour than the overhead amount. Shocking! But this is a good thing for me.
True there is no job security as a direct hire. In general the contractors get pushed out when things go thin. Happened to me twice. No hard feelings and gave me the gumption to get out and learn new OJT skills at my next gig, extend my network too.
I tell my single childless friends that they are crazy to ever be direct hires (W2s) for a long period of time. Especially if they are renters. You can rent anywhere. In my case my tax residence is in a low cost state while I get tax breaks for a period of time being in another state (I lost the tax break this February so I’m hurting, which is why I would be happy to go to another contract anyway).
“Business Owner and Realtor Conspired to Launder Money”
http://www.kztv10.com/news/agents-business-owner-and-realtor-conspired-to-launder-money/#_
“Realtor charged with falsifying contract”
http://www.dawsonnews.com/archives/10637/
“Realtor charged with falsifying contract”
The NAR has only honest trained professionals within its ranks.
“Real estate agent admits inappropriate conduct with teenagers”
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-06-14/news/fl-boca-raton-realtor-girl-20130614_1_lewd-photos-inappropriate-conduct-photographs
NAR family values:
“… said Goldberg sent a text to the 15-year-old containing a photo of cash fanned out and asking her to “hang out”
And millions of people who couldn’t say “no” were suckered.
“Modesto Realtor’s Second Trial For Real Estate Fraud Postponed”
http://www.californiarealestatefraudreport.com/archives/4513
When California’s central valley needs an enema insert the nozzle in Modesto.
We’re very turd-centric today aren’t we?
Must be all these realturds floating around the blog.
“Wall Street is ramping up financing to private-equity firms buying homes to rent, helping them accelerate purchases as competition increases and prices jump.
Deutsche Bank AG arranged a $1.5 billion credit line for Blackstone Group LP to buy single-family properties last week, after providing $2.1 billion to the firm earlier this year, according to three people with knowledge of the deal … The debt is giving an advantage to institutions competing with individuals, foreign investors and local landlords for a diminishing pool of distressed real estate to turn into rentals.”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-17/deutsche-bank-leading-wall-street-rental-loans-mortgages.html
This is getting more hilarious.
Lenders and hedgies directed by the Fed to hide a rotten turd that is 25 million excess and empty housing units.
How do you hide 25 million houses?
hide a rotten turd
The pile of bodies surrounding the kool-aid punchbowl, some still clutching half-drunk cups of kool-aid in their dead fingers, is growing, and with summer heating up is starting to smell very bad. Yet the thirsty lemmings tell themselves that it smells like a rose as they climb the pile hell-bent on committing financial suicide…
you will only take away my kool-aid when you pry it from my cold dead fingers.
Mortgaged house=holding onto a melting ice cube
The proverbial turd floating in the punchbowl.
“How do you hide 25 million houses?”
In plain sight.
There is a silver lining to this incipient debacle, as the next wave of massive housing market losses will land mainly on the 0.1%. Many of them will be non-U.S. citizens, suggesting the damage to our economy will be more limited than in the first wave of housing market collapse.
There is a silver lining to this incipient debacle, as the next wave of massive housing market losses will land mainly on the 0.1%
I think you’re wrong on that, PB. Think of the hundreds of billions of dollars of MBS on the Fed’s balance-sheet; who bears the losses on those again?
The taxpayers, of course.
The most relevant paragraph in the article:
“There has been a stunning shift in behavior, notes Zandi. In 2006, at the peak of the housing boom, almost 90 percent of homeowners who were refinancing mortgages increased the size of their loan, according to data from Freddie Mac; they were borrowing against higher housing values. In 2012, 83 percent of refinancing homeowners either didn’t change the mortgage amount or lowered it. They were striving to pay off debt.”
That’s a lotta boob jobs.
In 2012, 83 percent of refinancing homeowners either didn’t change the mortgage amount or lowered it.
Awesome.
Maybe J6P has finally gotten the memo that money borrowed from your house/ATM isn’t actually free—and does need to be paid back eventually.
I blew a mortgage broker’s mind back around 2000, when I did a “cash-in” refi… She seemed stunned that I didn’t want to take out any money, and actually was paying a chunk down at the same time as refi’ing.
ISTR another piece of data that the average length of refinanced mortgages was something like 27 years, down from 29 years before. I can’t find the article now…
They attributed it to a much higher than usual percentage of refinance loans being 15-year, fully amortizing loans, not 30.
Fewer cash-out refi’s means more debt aversion generally…excellent.
Add on top of it the fact that a 30-year loan at 4% pays down principal at about 45% faster in year 1 of a 6% loan, and these trends set up conditions for healthier family balance sheets 5 and 10-years down the road.
“90 percent of homeowners who were refinancing mortgages increased the size of their loan”
Many refi’s weren’t and couldn’t get, approved without an increase.
2006 was a peak, whereas 2012 was a through. I wonder what the numbers will look like at the peak of the bubble that is currently underway, as of 2013? I don’t know what year it will peak, but it won’t be 2012.
2012 started 18 months ago, and ended 6 months ago.
Douche bank is the most undercapitalized major bank in the world.
A nation of broke-ass loosers:
“the median financial net worth of American households of all ages, excluding homes and cars, is $10,890, as estimated by Edward N. Wolff, an economics professor at New York University. For households headed by those in the 55-to-64 age bracket, it’s $61,300.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/your-money/suddenly-retiree-nest-eggs-look-more-fragile.html?pagewanted=all
The _average_ net value of American households is high. But most of the value is in the top 10%, especially the top 0.1-0.5%.
The median net worth is staggeringly low. Incalcuably (!) low.
I was at the beach in Delaware this weekend, lots of overpriced new construction with HOA’s near Rehobeth and Dewey Beaches… but lots of un-fancy stuff in Lewes that is close to or right on the water.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/35168-South-Dr-Lewes-DE-19958/2112773129_zpid/
All I really care about is close to the beaches and a place to dock a boat. There are a bunch of homes in this general area in the same price range (approx $60/sq ft). I think I’m going to lowball offer a few at below $50/sq ft and see if anyone bites. And if not… well, these will be cheaper next year, right? I really don’t see the prices going up - they will go sideways at best.
Did you indulge at Go Fish? You should have.
No, just a home BBQ, but maybe next time, esp. if one of these people will sell me their depreciating albatross for $50/sq ft.
But you already own a depreciating dump in Sussex.
You really need to try the deep fried cheesecake at Go Fish.
That is a pretty good price for waterfront (or canal front). Cheap enough to not have to pay insurance, which is a big saving on oceanfront property. How are the property taxes?
Looks like you have to get out of the bay to get to a beach. How are the beaches?
You’re a hopeless liar AlWog.
I’m keepin’ hope alive.
How shall we rescue oxide?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9PvXvD0lq7c/TV3pdycZUbI/AAAAAAAABbE/tAnnuVtkwX0/s1600/donkey.jpg
Add water?
Lmao
By baiting her?
how long did it take you find that? lol.
2 seconds. It’s the 4 image out of thousands on google image search.
https://www.google.com/search?q=debt+donkey&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=Z8S_UfyxEePX0QGs2YHQAg&ved=0CAkQ_AUoAQ&biw=1280&bih=675
Good Morning.
Noticed more long term owned one-stories
in my area have hit the market at $440K and up,
averaging $275 sq ft and up. Some have dual pane
windows and sliding doors, but the interiors
are fixers by my standards. I’m granite-ized, I guess.
This supply side restraint is working well in my city.
So glad we beat this insanity and got in when we did.
Had a B-Day Bar-B-Q last night for a friend of 35 yrs.
Life is flying by. Enjoy your day.
Junkie,
What did you pay for your depreciating dump?
If you need to ask how much the granite counter tops are, you can’t afford them.
Inchy Realty Inc.
On that note I’ll throw in my gander at last week’s recent sales in “expensive” Syracuse suburban zip codes. Saw only a sprinkling of homes $250k to $275k which I’d say basically represents 2200 sq foot 4 Br, 2.5 baths on your neighborhood 1/2 acre plus plot. Everything else was way under $200k. I’ll have to keep watching but my inkling is the market’s freezing up. I’m guessing the lower priced sales which seems to be the entire market right now are rotation of rental property.
* Just remember the tax bill that goes w/that is somewhere between $8500 to $13000 annually. Lower ones might mean the residents are claiming a senior or combo senior/veteran STAR exemption.
“ust remember the tax bill that goes w/that is somewhere between $8500 to $13000 annually.”
But I am constantly told by my liberal betters that high taxes are good for the economy. I would imagine with a $10K tax bill for a $200K house, Syracuse’s economy must be booming.
Granite actually is less expensive than the fancy countertops they make these days. Staron, for example, costs significantly more.
One bad thing about granite, is any glass or plate dropped on will break. My friends have granite counter-tops and host a lot of gatherings- I swear one wine glass breaks on their granite counter at every party.
And if you drop a big enough plate, you can chip the granite.
Thanks for the info snowgirl,
and for the granite alert,
alpha.
We are careful w/ our SS, granite,
quartz, and wood flooring (shoe free home).
We paid our supp. property tax bill at $2,500 and change.
Our So Ca property tax bill will be around $3,800.
Affordable, and no mortgage. Sweet.
HO and EQ Insurance is the expensive ticket.
HA
Good Morning!
Junkie,
What did you pay for your depreciating dump??
Stemless wine glasses help.
“wine glass breaks”
Box wine into a plastic solo cup.
Good drinkin’ right there.
Box wine into a plastic solo cup.
Cut out the middleman and just ram a straw into the wine box.
HEE HAW!
Nothing like seeing the upstanding bootstraps-pulling crowd and the banks step up to the plate, and taking care of their abandoned/foreclosed-on properties.
http://tinyurl.com/kp274w6
Uhhhh, never mind.
Virginia governor McDonnell (R) apparently a petty thief according to financial records.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/mansion-spending-records-indicate-improper-billing-by-virginia-governor-and-his-family/2013/06/16/6008bfdc-c240-11e2-8c3b-0b5e9247e8ca_story.html
His next job should be as a Realtor!
No surprsie here.
Did you mean to say “no Slurpie here”? I don’t have one either, but those things are gross. Who else hates Slurpies on the HBB?
+1 if you hate Slurpies!
They don’t mix well with Everclear. That’s all I know…
After reading about the Iranian election this past weekend, it occurs to me that there are some curious similarities between Iran’s electoral system and ours:
• Iran has an unelected Supreme Council and leader who vette candidates and only allow approved candidates.
• We too have a Supreme Council of sorts which is more complex, but the net result is that only it allows approved candidates from the two parties to stand for office:
— One component are political party bosses, who choose the candidates (remember Howard Dean’s evisceration some years ago, purportedly for braying at a campaign event?).
— Another component are the mainstream media networks, which control access to the marketplace of TV, radio and print media.
— A third component is mentioned by Lawrence Lessig in this TED Talk. He calls them The Lesters. A tiny percentage of wealthy, highly organized political contributors.
China is evolving towards this kind of system as well.
A de facto supreme council which allows approved candidates to stand at election. It gives the populace the illusion of control of their government.
I’m going to watch that TED talk, thanks for posting the link.
“A Republic, if you can keep it.”
obama’s real war on women continues…
but at least they get “free” free birth control and abortions.
——————————-
In California, Single Women Will Also Face A Doubling Of Health Insurance Premiums Due To Obamacare
Forbes | 6/17/13 | Avik Roy
In 2014, Obamacare’s blizzard of regulations and mandates will transform the U.S. market for health insurance, among people who buy coverage for themselves. Of increasing concern is the phenomenon of “rate shock,” whereby many Americans face substantial increases in their health insurance premiums. Much of the debate has focused on young men, the “bros” who will bear the brunt of Obamacare’s rate hikes. But in California, women and men will see equally high jumps in the underlying cost of individual-market premiums.
If you adjust these numbers for the one-quarter of the population that has to pay more for health insurance today, due to pre-existing conditions, the median rate increases are still quite high: 92 percent for 25-year-olds, and 100 percent for 40-year-olds.
Progressives insist that we must take into account the impact of Obamacare’s subsidies on the net cost of insurance under Obamacare. I’ve argued that it is irresponsible to be unconcerned with the underlying cost of insurance, because subsidies don’t magically fall from the sky. They cost money, and they don’t benefit everyone. The taxpayers who pay for these subsidies will face a double-whammy of higher taxes and higher premiums.
The bigger problem, of course, is what happens if the people who face higher costs under Obamacare drop out of the system and pay the fine instead. Such adverse selection would make premiums even less affordable, and require a greater outlay of taxpayer subsidies.
Obamacare didn’t mandate higher prices. That’s STRICTLY the insurance companies because Obamacare didn’t restrict them from raising until 2014. And THAT was due to the GOP.
The kool-aid drinker speaks.
Not one republican voted for the obamacare in the house or senate (with the exceptions of two about to switch party boys).
yet…
ALL the failings of obamacare are the FAULT of the republicans
BUT any successes of obamacare are the responsibility of obama.
You can’t make this sh*t up.
CA will face 125% premium increases due to O’Care.
Yet liberals defend this by
a) claiming 125% more is actually a decrease because without O’Care it would have been 1000% more
or
b) blame the GOP
It’s truly amazing to watch a liberal brain work. More is less but if it’s actually more it’s the other guy’s fault.
Slithers and Tootie-Fruitie:
Please define the terms “libral” and “conservative”.
Thanks,
Curious Uncle on HBB
Yeah, yeah I know, you hate labels and parties. It’s just that you always vote Democrat and agree with 99.9% of what MSNBC says. But you’re an independent thinking moderate centrist.
Mr. Smithers, liberals believe in “free speech” but only if it is left-wing free speech.
What, no answer to the question? You don’t know the answer, do you?
“Mr. Smithers, liberals believe in “free speech” but only if it is left-wing free speech.”
TRUTH!
Slander, libel and threats are not and never were protected free speech.
Hate to blow your talking point (again) Smithers, but my insurance just went DOWN by 13% in CA. And when I sign up with an interstate insurance collective in six months, it will go down some more. And if I choose to go uncovered entirely and just pay the federal “fine”, it will go down even more. But don’t let that stop your dissembling.
Your “fine” will go up over a period of time, but I’m sure you have a snappy answer for that one also.
Post your Realtor Brain-Deadism’s
This entire thread:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/denver/1348006-positive-real-estate-news.html
“Good things happen to people who think positively.”
The stock market is annoying me.
It’s making me very happy.
You are going to lose a lot money, and you are not going to be verry happy about it.
Why do you assume he won’t make it through the exit door in time the next time the crowded theater crashes and burns?
Who, Slithers? He lives in his parents’ house and gets paid $15/hour to post on behalf of Mitt Romney’s political party. He owns nothing.
this is the first post that ive ever seen mr. smithers be happy about anything. keep it coming, bro. there’s a world of joy out there. i was up in it last weekend in rocky mountain national park with the bears and the elk and rocks and trees and snow…
This might have been covered over the weekend, but I just saw it- amazing sh!t…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-14/bofa-gave-bonuses-to-foreclose-on-clients-lawsuit-claims.html
“BofA Gave Bonuses to Foreclose on Clients, Lawsuit Claims
By Hugh Son & David McLaughlin - Jun 15, 2013 12:00
Bank of America Corp. (BAC), the second-biggest U.S. lender, rewarded staff with cash bonuses and gift cards for meeting quotas tied to sending distressed homeowners into foreclosure, former employees said in court documents.
Mortgage workers falsified records and were told to delay U.S. loan-assistance applications by requesting paperwork that the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank had already received, according to statements from ex-employees filed last week in federal court in Boston. ..”
Not one FB dollar will be allowed to escape…
I’m curious…doesn’t this allegation (BofA paying bonuses to foreclose instead of pushing for “extend and pretend” loan modifications) fly in the face of the “banks are doing everything possible to NOT foreclose” conspiracy theory?
Actually, the theory suggests that with the suspension of Mark to Market rules in 2009, and the advent of Mark to Fantasy, companies were reluctant to sell foreclosures because they could mark them at any valuation which showed solvency (and increased executive bonuses). When they sold a foreclosure, or any housing asset they owned, they would incur the loss.
However, now, with the surge in prices, these companies, banks and others, would now be able to unload foreclosures at bubble prices. Non-politically-connected foreign buyers in particular would be excellent cannon fodder. Second to these are non-bank companies and private individuals.
Once that process completes, perhaps there may be a reduction of some of the various government and central bank housing market price supports. Then again, maybe not.
But that’s the theory. Only the Bernank and Treasury Secretary know for sure, and they’re not sharing their cards with the public.
I don’t think the bank has the ability to mark their REO to any number, since the act of foreclosure essentially provides a market value–after fully disclosing the sale to the public.
The suspension of mark to market has more to do with the debt they hold, and marking it to something less than the principal balance based on distressed debt sales in very illiquid market with difficult to value assets.
Note the following from the article you posted:
“Changes to fair-value, or mark-to-market accounting, approved by FASB today allow companies to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities.”
The change does not allow complete discretion to simply value a $100,000 home at, say $4 Billion.
“BofA Gave Bonuses to Foreclose on Clients, Lawsuit Claims”
Presumably that was from back when dual tracking was legal?
12 Year Old Girl Tells The SHEEPLE the Truth about …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1IgiNnOZV4 - 252k -
Rethinking my Florida plan:
http://www.shebudgets.com/lifestyle/entertainment/20-celebrities-who-went-bankrupt/17203/12
Awwwwww helllll naw!!!
and the news from Crimetroit getz worser and worser each day
Two staffing companies plan to lay off about 650 employees at Detroit Public Schools by Aug. 12 if the school district cannot resolve a dispute over more than $18 million in missed payments on a building services contract.
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20130617/NEWS/130619850/staffing-execs-650-layoffs-planned-linked-to-unpaid-dps-contract
Detroit’s problems are mindlessly easy to solve.
1. Wipe out the creditors on civic debt.
2. Clean out the crime element once and for all.
3. Sell any civic-owned property at auction to the highest bidder.
4. Get the goobermint out of the way, and let the magic of the free market help Detroit reinvent itself.
Edward Snowden Q&A: Dick Cheney traitor charge is ‘the highest honor’
The whistleblower behind the biggest intelligence leak in NSA history answered your questions about the NSA surveillance revelations
guardian.co.uk, Monday 17 June 2013 15.31 EDT
…
It sounds fine in theory, but how do you stand up to secret programs whose existence is only revealed when whistle blowers spill the beans at tremendous personal risk?
ft dot com
June 17, 2013 6:13 pm
Make privacy part of the transatlantic trade talks
By Yochai Benkler
Time to address the threat from the public-private partnership for surveillance, says Yochai Benkler
Artistic rendering of computer date©Dreamstime
One of the US constitution’s great strengths is its strong protection for privacy against government intrusion. One troubling feature, therefore, of the recently revealed collaboration between the National Security Agency and America’s global information providers is that the government has found a way to bypass the constitution. It uses weaknesses in legal protections that, in both the US and Europe, are intended to allow private companies to keep records on their clients while shielding citizens from prying by their governments.
American law privileges consumer sovereignty over human dignity, so it provides weak privacy protection against snooping by companies. They may create extensive dossiers on customers, and because they provide services globally but have systems anchored in the US, those data are subject to American government observation as well.
But, in US law, privacy is historically more robust when it comes to the government’s right to create similar dossiers. The kind of dragnet surveillance of phone metadata that the order to Verizon exposed would, in normal times, have triggered forceful resistance. It is similar to the undirected search warrants deployed by the British in their North American colonies – an injustice that inspired the fourth amendment, which offers protection against unreasonable searches.
In the response to the September 11 2001 attacks, many constitutional bulwarks were breached. Torture, indefinite detention, eavesdropping on journalists or aggressive prosecution of their national security sources – these are not the American constitutional way. Objections are repeatedly waved away. “You’re talking as though 9/11 never happened,” we are told. The US has almost recovered from the most vicious manifestation of this malaise – the Bush-Cheney torture programme. But indefinite detention continues and the Bush-Obama surveillance system is thriving.
Even in normal times, however, US constitutional law is concerned with Americans and American soil. Foreigners abroad are not subjects of concern; invasion of their privacy is collateral damage. What can citizens on both sides of the Atlantic do to address the threat from this public-private partnership for surveillance?
…