Bits Bucket for June 24, 2013
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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The days of ridiculously low mortgage rates are history as Fed signals a pullback on stimulus
Real estate experts weigh in on the new challenges facing New York homebuyers
By Phyllis Furman / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Monday, June 24, 2013, 5:00 AM
Aaron Showalter/New York Daily News
Lucy Blair and her fiance are speeding up their efforts to buy a home in Brooklyn to get ahead of rising interest rates.
Lucy Blair, a 27-year-old employee at a local digital strategy firm, was in no rush to buy an apartment - until last week.
Blair and her fiance are in the hunt for their first home as a married couple and have been on the fence about whether to buy or to rent in Brooklyn.
But word that the Fed will be pulling back on its economic stimulus policies has them worrying about where interest rates are heading.
Now they’re busy scheduling appointments with their broker, Ana Weisberger of Citi Habitats, to tour apartments for sale.
“We always knew we would buy at some point,” Blair said. “This catalyzed the process. We don’t want to be caught with our pants down in a year from now.”
Rising interest rates are the new reality for homebuyers.
Since the beginning of May, with the exception of a small dip last week, rates have been climbing, hitting 3.93% last week, according to Freddie Mac. That’s half a percentage point above where they were earlier this year.
And they’re expected to head up further in the wake of the Fed’s comments last week, marking the end of a year-and-half-long period of ridiculously low rates.
“This historically abnormal period of Nirvana is drawing to a close,” Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, told the Daily News.
Mortgage rates are tied to yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, which have been surging in the wake of the Fed’s comments.
What does this all mean for homebuyers in New York?
…
The last thing I believe is an indicator is what the Fed says. The economy has not recovered, only the government statistics have recovered. If interest rates climb significantly, I think it will be against the wishes of the Fedsters. The sweet irony possible is that Bernanke may go down in the history books as the guy who crushed the US economy in GD2 by jacking up interest rates!
I approved this message.
I’m voting for Bill In LA in 2016.
Ten year yield jumped today. Will be 3% by end of the week. BernanQE won’t be able to staunch the blood flow. Interest rates up, housing’s going DOWN!
The LIEberals hate your posts.
And the more I post to annoy them.
Let’s extend the thinking out a bit more, shall we Bill?
Interest rates up = less disposable income.
Less disposable income = fewer sales of all goods.
ObamaCare = less disposable income.
Amnesty = more people on welfare.
Fewer sales = less tax revenue.
Less tax revenue = increased taxes.
Let’s say all of the above is true.
What happens to (1) gold, (2) bonds, (3) stocks, (4) jobs, and finally, (5) housing.
All of the above down or sold off in short term. All except physical precious metals and equities down / sold off in long term. Stocks will do better thsn gold in long term. 20 years. We are headed into a super storm
Keep your expenses low, Bill.
I know you’re oriented that way anywat, so this is just a reminder.
I want you to win.
I always have suitcase packed. Got disposable furniture still. One month break-lease penalty. Piece of cake. I thrive on volatility.
Now that’s mobility. Try that with depreciating boat anchor of a house.
It should go without saying, work at my client site is disintegrating. Some directs being shuffled out soon. More contractors cleaning their desks.
Try that with depreciating boat anchor of a house.
Try it with a family.
Business does not exist to raise families or provide jobs. Of course you don’t like it. But reality differs from your nanny state dreams.
Bill has no kids Alwog….. like most everyone else who appreciates mobility.
“Business does not exist to raise families or provide jobs.”
If business isn’t conducive to raising families or providing jobs, doesn’t that make business self defeating? No jobs = no customers. No families = no employees, customers or anything until the next wave of dolphins emerge from the sea. No offense Bill, but if everyone lived your lifestyle humanity would end. Someone has to be ‘burdened’ by having kids.
“Interest rates up = less disposable income.
Less disposable income = fewer sales of all goods.
ObamaCare = less disposable income.
Amnesty = more people on welfare.
Fewer sales = less tax revenue.
Less tax revenue = increased taxes.
Let’s say all of the above is true…”
Sounds like the “Utopia” progressives are trying to create.
The only progression we get from progressives is back to the stone age for 99% and obscene wealth and power for the elite 1%, the same 1% currently fast tracking us towards a one party statist society.
Progressivism - The biggest scam perpetrated on the world since one hour martinizing.
Al, true for the long haul but very much a disadvantage for the last 12 years. Complaining about it don’t change history.
“true for the long haul but very much a disadvantage for the last 12 years.”
The statement “Business does not exist to raise families or provide jobs” doesn’t have any qualifiers about the last 12 years. And there have been plenty of much worse times in history to have a family than now. And yet people do it. Complaining about the challenges of having a family doesn’t change history.
yup. disintegrating.
This afternoon the software manager said I have to leave his team. He’s left a voicemail with the Integration and Test team manager to see if there is a position for me. I doubt it. The manager needed people in the past but…not much work going on now.
The Bright News (!!!!!!) is I get to look for work again. I like doing it. I love negotiation. This time around I would like to stay in Los Angeles or the OC. I told my pimp (recruiter) that. He got back to me. He’s notified and on notice I’m ready to go commercial.
Take away the child tax credits, the subsidized education (I am actually happy to pay taxes for education believe it or not), the fringe benefits of being a family (I see it many times big families get preferential treatment at businesses over singles), and you got what? You got someone to carry on your genes and that’s about all.
Al I am agreeing that family units are very important to carry on the species. Equally important is career. Conditions right now make it essentially a dichotomy, especially compared to the 1950s when you could COMMONLY raise a family with four children and a stay at home homemaker on one income. If you worked a farm in the 1800s you better reproduce like rabbits.
But you are wearing blinders if you do not realize the entire developed world knows children are a luxury these days.
As for the last 12 years - note the people who nested and bought houses after 2003 suffered immensely. Instead of saving for retirement they bought houses and HELOCed. Those who stayed ultra mobile and without kids did not have any reason to buy houses. So we avoided that poison arrow.
Jobs have been outsourced like crazy in the meantime. The best jobs that used to be high paying jobs here in the USA done for a dime on the dollar.
And you don’t see the connection in the last 12 or 13 years?
they don’t call him “helicopter ben” for nothing.
but then again…he is on the “out”.
He is already known as the guy who caused the first bubble to pop when he raised interest rates last time. BTW, he is only following orders. No need to blame the Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve Bank. The real boss works for the Bank of International Settlements.
The real boss works for the Bank of International Settlements.
How big is their army?
Probably suspiciously close to the size of all the first world armies put together.
all the first world armies put together.
Which is basically us plus whoever, and whoever doesn’t even really have to show up.
Who’s the boss in such a situation?
“27-year-old employee at a local digital strategy firm”
Seems like a verrrrry stable career. I’d rush to buy a place if I was here, too. (insert eye roll)
Beat me to it.
Are you perchance enmeshed in U.S. mortgage chaos?
Saw a friend over the weekend who is in a world of hurt right now due to said mortgage chaos.
64 years old, mortgaged to the hilt–took out all the equity in her home at the height of the bubble in 2006. Now she is deeply underwater on the house, and income from her business has also declined from its peak. She can no longer deny having to drastically scale back her lifestyle. Looking to sell off most of her belongings and move into low-income senior housing. It is painful to witness, even though she had a nice life while blowing through her home equity and then some. Why any bank loaned her hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2006 is beyond me.
What’s fun is that I managed to avoid all of her financial mistakes.
But we’re both going to end up in the same place.
The bank loaned her a crap load of dollars because they knew the government would cover the losses.
That most people suffer considerable decline in living standards and prospects is merely incidental.
And so it goes during Government Bubble eras.
What was that phrase around here?
Privatize the gains and socialize the losses?
Washington DC is the wealthiest metro area across the land.
Need I say more?
“The bank loaned her a crap load of dollars because they knew the government would cover the losses.”
Not only that, but they could also “bundle” the loans into CDOs and hide the questionable loans that way, as well.
Win/Win. For the FIRE sector.
i know someone exactly like this. used multiple re-fi’s to finance all kinds of stuff. cars for the kids (because kids are entitled)trips (the kids grow up so fast), home improvements, you name it. now in mid 60’s (and still working) and deep in debt. was talking the other day and they were absolutely incredulous because a collector called and wanted to be paid. can you imagine! they thought the company should be nicer since they’re paying so much in interest and penalties. just wow! so i offered that they should show the credit card company and just pay it off. their response “who has 2k just sitting around. okay, i give up.
There is a new scrap-booking store in my nabe.
Is the correction over?
Maybe not just yet.
New York Markets Open in: 2:32:16
Pre-Market Indications | Analyst Ratings
Futures: S&P 500 -0.8% DOW -0.8% NASDAQ -0.6%
Chinese stocks see worst one-day loss since 2009
• Goldman Sachs cuts outlook for Chinese GDP growth | China’s alarming credit crunch
• Futures drop sharply as China tumbles | Gold falls as dollar rises
• How to avoid another 2008 stock crash | Central banks in focus
I think interest rates could also be rising because the Chinese may not be in play for our bonds quite as aggressively as in the past few years…Who is going to take up the slack ??
June 24, 2013, 4:30 a.m. EDT
Fed fears continue to bruise European stocks
By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) — European stock markets dropped for a fifth straight day on Monday as investors continued to worry about the prospect of a reduction in central-bank easing in the U.S.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index (XX:SXXP -1.49%) fell 0.7% to 278.43, adding to losses from last week, when the benchmark closed at the lowest level in 2013.
The fallout from this week’s decision by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to start reducing its bond buying program later this year will likely dominate financial markets next week as yields continue to rise and investors turn away from risk. Expect the euro zone to be in focus and Japanese data to attract attention, says Sara Sjolin and Nina Bains.
“There is no doubt that the markets are still in the process of pricing in the Federal Reserve’s plan to tone down its stimulus drive later this year. After last week’s dramatic selloff, investors will be hesitant to enter at current levels, considering the volatility,” said Max Cohen, financial sales trader at Spreadex, in a note.
Investors fled the stock markets last week after the U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank could start tapering its $85-billion-a-month asset purchases later this year if the economy grows as expected.
…
June 24, 2013, 2:14 a.m. EDT
Oil slips on strong dollar, weak fundamentals
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Oil futures fell further in electronic trade Monday, adding to heavy losses suffered at the end of the previous week, as a rising U.S. dollar and bearish fundamentals delivered a one-two punch to crude.
Benchmark U.S. crude oil for August delivery (CLQ3 -0.21%) slipped 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $93.24 a barrel during East Asia trading hours, after losing 1.5% Friday, and after the previous front-month contract plunged 2.9% Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
…
June 24, 2013, 12:23 a.m. EDT
Dollar marches higher against other majors
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar extended its winning streak Monday, notching gains against all of its largest rivals as investors piled back into the greenback.
The ICE dollar index (DXY +0.20%) — which measures the U.S. unit against six other major currencies — rose to 82.649 from 82.302 late Friday in North America.
Likewise, the WSJ Dollar Index (XX:BUXX +0.19%) — a rival gauge with a slightly wider comparison basket — rose to 74.53 from 74.29.
The gain represented the latest leg of a rally in the wake of comments last Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the U.S. could slow its monetary stimulus this year if the economy continued to improved.
The ICE dollar index had traded around 80.5 before Bernanke’s remarks, while the WSJ index was just above 72.5.
Crédit Agricole analysts said the dollar’s gains was build on capital inflows, a trend that they said would likely continue.
“Behind this [dollar] lift are repatriation inflows from emerging markets, as investors move to protect profits after a stellar period of performance fuelled by Fed policy,” they wrote Monday.
…
Why pay $1282/oz for gold today if you can look forward to getting it for $1050/oz at year-end 2014?
June 24, 2013, 4:05 a.m. EDT
Goldman cuts 2013, 2014 gold forecasts
By Francesca Freeman
Goldman Sachs (GS -0.75%) Monday cut its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, citing growing price risks from a brightening U.S. economic picture.
The bank now expects gold to end this year at $1,300 a troy ounce, down 9.4% on its previous forecast. It sees gold ending 2014 at $1,050 an ounce, down 17.3% on its earlier outlook.
“Medium term, we expect that gold prices will decline further given our U.S. economists’ forecast for improving economic activity and a less accommodative monetary policy stance,” the bank said. “Further, with quantitative easing tapering likely to start soon, perhaps even a bit sooner than previously anticipated, we are fast forwarding on our real rate path.”
…
CORRECTED-INSIGHT-Losses loom for investors enmeshed in U.S. mortgage chaos
Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:49pm EDT
By Michelle Conlin
(Reuters) - Since the financial crash, banks have been accused of wrongfully foreclosing on homeowners because they failed to create and maintain proper mortgage paperwork. Now, there are signs that chaotic document management is harming investors in mortgage bonds, too.
A review of loan documents, property records and the monthly reports made available to investors show that mortgage servicers are reporting individual houses are still in foreclosure long after they have been sold to new buyers or the underlying mortgages have been paid off.
These delays enable banks and other mortgage servicers to continue to charge monthly fees to investors in these mortgage-backed securities, the banks’ investor reports show. It means that investors are buying mortgage bonds that may have billions of dollars of undisclosed losses that will become apparent only at a later stage. It could also lead to a new round of litigation for banks just when some appeared to have been putting their mortgage problems behind them.
The review, conducted by foreclosure investigator Lisa Epstein, found hundreds of instances across the United States where information about the status of individual home loans was incorrect. The information about the mortgages is sent from the mortgage servicer, which handles tasks such as collecting monthly mortgage payments and handling foreclosures, to the trustee of the mortgage bonds, which administers monthly reports and makes sure investors get paid.
In 2009, Epstein helped uncover the robo signing scandal, in which she discovered that banks had hired low-level workers to pose as executives, signing hundreds of legal affidavits a day without verifying a single word, as is required by law. The reporting lag issues she identified in mortgage bonds involved many of the same mortgage servicers who engaged in robo signing.
“This is all part and parcel of having servicers who are unable to keep the documentation straight,” said Linda Allen, a banking professor at Baruch College, who specializes in mortgage servicing. She said Epstein’s methodology was sound.
Mortgage experts estimate these reporting delays could mean that billions of dollars in losses may still be hidden in these bonds. Mortgage servicers may have also been charging late fees, property inspection fees, legal fees and other penalties against these loans long after they have been paid off, inflating the losses, they said.
“The losses are building up inside these deals, and this is going to happen all over the place,” said William Frey, founder of Greenwich Financial Services, which specializes in securitization.
…
What a surprise……brought to you by the creators of NINJA financing, and MERS.
So let’s sum up……
The homeowners are getting screwed six ways from Sunday. Ditto the mortgage bond holders.
The banksters walk away smelling like roses.
The unregulated, free market at work.
The homeowners are getting screwed six ways from Sunday. Ditto the mortgage bond holders.
The banksters walk away smelling like roses.
Well, beforehand the renters got screwed and the banksters walked away smelling like roses. Which one of these things is just like the other?
CREDIT MARKETS
Updated June 20, 2013, 6:16 p.m. ET
Mortgage Securities Feel the Pain
By AL YOON
[image] Reuters
Rising mortgage rates could put a damper on home buying. Pictured, a home under construction in Maryland.
Mortgage-backed-securities prices continued to fall, as investors digested some of the clearest signals yet that the Federal Reserve’s support of the $5 trillion market could be phased out soon.
Mortgage bonds issued by government-controlled Fannie Mae, (FNMA +6.94%) Freddie Mac (FMCC +8.07%) and Ginnie Mae fell more than Treasurys. These securities are among the most vulnerable to increases in long-term interest rates such as 10-year Treasury yields, which are at their highest since August 2011.
On Thursday, the yield on Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities rose 0.08 percentage point from late Wednesday, to a 20-month high of 3.29%, according to Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX -2.08%). The yield has climbed from 2.3% on May 1 and increased the spread over 10-year Treasury rates to 0.87 percentage point, nearing highs of last week and matching levels last seen before the Fed surprised markets in September with its open-ended program to purchase $85 billion of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities each month. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Prices on the most interest-rate-sensitive mortgage-backed securities fell the hardest, and intraday recoveries have been short-lived amid concern that large holders, such as real-estate investment trusts, would pare their portfolios. Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities with 3% interest rates, backed by home loans made to borrowers who are now more unlikely to refinance, fell more than one cent on the dollar to 98 4/32, near the bottom of the day’s range.
“It’s a roller-coaster ride,” said Walter Schmidt, head of mortgage strategy at FTN Financial. “We’re kind of getting a feeling of stability, but like a roller coaster it’s very tenuous because you know the next drop is coming.”
Price declines weren’t limited to the debt targeted by the Fed’s purchases. Residential and commercial-mortgage bonds not guaranteed by the government also declined, in addition to corporate and municipal debt, stocks and commodities.
Yields on mortgage-backed securities posted their biggest one-day rise in four years on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank could begin winding down its bond purchases later this year and end stimulus measures by the middle of 2014 if the economy maintains its momentum.
Lenders make home loans with the intent of selling them to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, and they typically increase loan interest rates as bond yields increase. The three companies’ programs help fund nearly nine out of 10 new home loans in the U.S.
“The market’s reaction has been violent,” said Bryan Whalen, a managing director at TCW Group, which oversees $130 billion in assets.
…
“We’re kind of getting a feeling of stability, but like a roller coaster it’s very tenuous because you know the next drop is coming.”
Reading statements like these from someone in the housing crime syndicate is stunning.
Hasn’t started yet.
Could be looking at a very ugly week, world wide.
what goes up comes down a lot faster.
actullay it doesn’t…but that’s ok.
Actually, it has already started, big time.
Stock markets fall after China crashes into bear market territory
• FTSE 100 hits 5-month low
• Spain and Italy’s borrowing costs rise in early trading
• Chinese stock market suffers biggest daily fall since August 2009
Graeme Wearden
guardian.co.uk, Monday 24 June 2013 07.34 EDT
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange June 21, 2013 in New York. The sell-off which began last week when the Federal Reserve signalled it would end its stimulus package is continuing. Photograph: TIMOTHY CLARY/AFP/Getty Images
In retrospect, maybe “Sell in May, Go Away” wasn’t such a bad idea.
I sold some in late March. I got a little more in cash waiting for a real correction. If we go by the adages, wouldn’t we have a true QE spigot-turn-off around Halloween? (perhaps as a result of a high-flying real-estate selling season.)
When one is in debt, the only rational investment is to get out of debt.
And what do they call them?
DEBT DONKEYS!!!
Hee haw to you too, dearie.
Blue, I am not “in debt.” I am solvent. It’s all degrees of liquidity.
That’s my debt donkey!
What are your losses to date?
I am solvent and have no debt!
Blue, I am not “in debt.”….
Ha! I bet it felt good to write that. I think that if you keep saying that you can believe it into reality! Just bring out your inner Little Engine.
It would feel even better if, instead of mindless bickering, you backed up what you say. Explain to me why I’m NOT not in debt. Explain why I couldn’t sell my house next week for what I paid and still break even.
Explain how spending 18 years thinking “oh right I need to write out that rent check” is NOT some form of being in debt.
“Explain why I couldn’t sell my house next week for what I paid and still break even.”
That burden falls on you Junkie….
Push the needle in…..
If your indebtedness exceed your fungible assets, you are in debt.
If you cannot pay off your obligations with cash on hand, you are in debt.
It’s an Orwellian thing:
“War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.”
If your indebtedness exceed your fungible assets, you are in debt.
That’s the problem…people still think a house is fungible. And the system is trying to keep it that way as long as possible. The piper won’t be paid until that is proven wrong.
Houses have nearly always* been the least fungible asset.
Houses are an expense, not an asset. Paying rent also is an expense.
Keep expenses low.
(* = cannot think of a less fungible asset, but perhaps I am wrong. Perhaps human organs are a less fungible asset)
Houses have nearly always* been the least fungible asset.
Houses are an expense, not an asset
Are they an expense, or are they the least fungible asset?
Houses are an expense, not an asset.
Correct. And they depreciate rapidly.
Overpaying for a house is the financial death knell for these two reasons.
I have been thinking about the whole “oxide” debate and decided to get into the FIRE mind…if someone has a high net worth ($ 1M liquid, and $ 1M in other investments) and say around $ 250k a year in income. Why not buy now…finance as much as they can up to $ 1M (MID limit)…especially if they think interest rates are going to rise. With their liquidity…if things go south…they can always pay down the principle. Why not take advantage of the MID to finance the loan?
The math works the same no matter how many zeros you put on the end of the numbers.
Michael:
Because houses in most places are overvalued, and poised to drop sharply. It would be better to use that money to short the stock market.
World stocks fall amid China credit concerns
Originally published: June 24, 2013 1:31 AM
Updated: June 24, 2013 6:43 AM
By The Associated Press CARLO PIOVANO (AP Business Writer), PAMELA SAMPSON (AP Business Writer)
LONDON - (AP) — Global stock markets reeled Monday, with Shanghai’s index enduring its biggest loss in four years, after an increase in China’s commercial lending rates sparked fears about the state of the world’s second-largest economy.
Analysts say the spike in the country’s interbank lending rate was part of an effort to curb the high level of off-balance-sheet lending in China that could threaten the country’s financial stability.
But investors feared the move could also hurt economic growth. China’s major state-owned banks are unwilling to lend to any but their biggest clients, so the vast majority of smaller businesses must rely on informal lending.
Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 5 percent to 1,968.51 while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index plunged 6.1 percent to 881.87.
The drop unsettled European markets, where Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.6 percent to 6,077.58 and France’s (CAC-40) slid 1.1 percent to 3,616.81. Germany’s DAX was down 0.7 percent to 7,732.27 after a key business sentiment index rose slightly, suggesting the recovery in Europe’s largest economy continues, though at a slow pace.
Wall Street also appeared headed for losses, with Dow Jones industrial futures down 0.6 percent to 14,624. S&P 500 futures lost 0.7 percent to 1,573.30.
Analysts at Moody’s Investors Service said that they saw the Chinese central bank’s action as “having been the result of a conscious decision” to curb credit growth.
…
What sent the Shanghai markets over the edge?
Oh, maybe this:
Bank of China, Bank of suspension of transfers morning counters were unable to apply for online banking
This article comes from the Legal Evening News at 16:58 on June 24, 2013
via Google Translate
Customer service said, now silver futures transfer service has been fully suspended, online banking, the counter can not be handled, and now has the background system response, recovery time is not yet known.
WASHINGTON (correspondent with Xuan) Following the ICBC, the Bank of China also go awry again. This morning, the Bank of China Bank moratorium on transfers, online banking, counters are inoperable.
Snowgirl:
I did not understand the article you posted. Is it trying to say that China is having a technical problem, or did they shut down their banking system because it’s broke?
“Actually, it has already started, big time.”
+1 The shorts are dancing in the street!
Do you think a true market correction will wake the people up this time?
Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning in a recent statement (Chris Martenson podcast):
No one simply solves a terrible problem on a sunny day when they can afford at least for the time being to look the other way. Problems like that are faced when people have no other choice, and it is a really grim day. And, it is white-knuckle time and horrible things are happening with markets around the world, or horrible things are happening, at least historically, we have seen that geopolitically around the world. And, that is when people are forced to act.
Or….like the Gerald Celente quote I’ve been throwing out there for years: when people have nothing left to lose, they lose it.
No, most people pay no attention to the stock market at all. They’ve been conditioned to buy and hold (in their 401K). They think it’s fine. They never even check.
Will mortgage rate increases derail the housing recovery?
Kurt Rossi/For The Times of Trenton
on June 23, 2013 at 8:15 AM
The housing market has been on a tear lately. In fact, according to last month’s S&P/Case-Shiller index, a closely watched gauge of national home prices, values increased by 10.9 percent in the last year. That is the most significant increase in seven years.
So what is driving the increase in values? Reductions in inventory, a slowly improving economy, renewed investor demand and ultra-low interest rates have all provided tailwinds for the improvement in the housing market.
…
Interest rates going up, housing’s going DOWN!
Interest rates going up, housing’s going DOWN! ??
Probably correct depending on how high and how fast….BUT, guess what could possibly go down with it…Welcome back to 9-10% unemployment….
So, the question is; Will Ben or Yellon allow that to happen ??
“allow that to happen ??
Beerguy….. you want to take care of this beaut?
Welcome back to 9-10% unemployment….
So you believe the QEs lowered the unemployment rate?
“So you believe the QEs lowered the unemployment rate?”
I believe it did, although given that the unemployment rate is manipulated, I prefer to say QE produced jobs. I also believe most of the jobs will last only a little bit longer than the QE, and that the output from most of the jobs would be malinvestment. For someone desperate for work, they won’t care about either of those points; they’ll be clamouring for more QE.
Jobs generated by QE are basically no different than welfare.
They do keep the “bootstraps” fantasy going, however.
I agree with Al….
Stimulating growth threatens stability, central banks warn
Monetary stimulus is not the answer, says the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, after share prices plunge
Heather Stewart
The Guardian, Sunday 23 June 2013 10.00 EDT
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange after a week in which prices plunged around the world. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP
Central banks have done as much as they safely can to rebuild the world economy, and the onus is now on politicians to create the conditions for a stronger recovery, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the central bankers’ club.
In its annual report, published on Sunday, the bank, based in Basle, Switzerland, warns that with unprecedented stimulus already in place, fresh action from central banks to kick-start growth may do more harm than good, by distorting financial markets and jeopardising stability.
“Unfortunately, central banks cannot do more without compounding the risks they have already created. Monetary stimulus alone cannot put economies on a path to robust, self-sustaining growth, because the roots of the problem preventing such growth are not monetary,” said Stephen Cecchetti, head of the bank’s monetary and economic department, presenting the report.
The bank’s intervention comes at a critical time, as the Federal Reserve is preparing the US public for the end of the quantitative easing programme under which it bought $85bn (£55bn) of bonds every month. In total, central banks in the world’s major economies, including the US, UK and Japan, now own assets worth 25% of those countries’ GDP.
Stock and bond prices plunged across the world last week after Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that he planned to begin “tapering” quantitative easing by the end of the year.
The regulating bank in Basle believes it is the right time for central banks to reconsider their role. “We are past the height of the crisis, and the goal of policy has changed – to return still sluggish economies to strong and sustainable growth. Can central banks now really do ‘whatever it takes’ to achieve that goal? As each day goes by, it seems less and less likely.”
Instead of more central bank stimulus, the bank would like to see governments take immediate action to repair public finances, finish the job of re-regulating the fragile banking sector and make markets work better.
…
“Unfortunately, central banks cannot do more without compounding the risks they have already created. Monetary stimulus alone cannot put economies on a path to robust, self-sustaining growth, because the roots of the problem preventing such growth are not monetary,” said Stephen Cecchetti, head of the bank’s monetary and economic department, presenting the report.
this man is an effin’ genius!
take immediate action to repair public finances,”
How raise taxes like Ca did ? still not enough try again
Fed, China concerns pressure shares, dollar gains
By Richard Hubbard
LONDON | Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:38am EDT
(Reuters) - Plans by the U.S. central bank to scale back its money printing combined with fears that China’s policy may be tightening to lift the dollar on Monday, while bonds, shares and commodities extended last week’s losses.
The Federal Reserve’s signal that the era of cheap central bank money - which saw many assets hit record highs - was coming to an end has raised fears of prolonged market shakeout.
“The prospect for a disorderly transition is there,” said Josh Raymond, market strategist for City Index.
“The more liquidity you’ve got in the system, the more disorderly the potential could be, so that’s the real fear about this,” he said.
The shift out of assets which have benefited most from cheap money has been sharpest in the U.S. debt market, where yields on 10-year Treasury notes have spiked to two year highs, hitting 2.57 percent on Monday.
This rise in rates and the brighter outlook for the U.S. economy, which was behind the Fed’s decision, has favored the dollar against most major currencies. The dollar index .DXY was up 0.4 percent at 82.66 on Monday, building on last week’s 2.2 percent rally, its biggest weekly gain in 19 months.
Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.6 percent to 98.40 yen while euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.3095 after dropping as low as $1.3078, a level not seen since June 6.
STOCKS SHUNNED
As investors retreated into the dollar, share markets everywhere have tumbled.
…
Last I heard funds were cashing out dividend paying stocks for growth stocks. cashing out BRICS for dollars.
I don’t know how much growth there is going to be ?
“Is the correction over?”
Not yet and not for a long time to come.
If we’re lucky, it might happen within our lifetime.
Still plummeting, already into the next trading day.
June 25, 2013, 12:17 a.m. EDT
Shanghai slumps again, slamming Asian stocks
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Mainland Chinese stocks plunged Tuesday, sliding further into bear market territory and dragging down other Asian markets on worries that Beijing’s reluctance to provide relief in the interbank money markets may have a wider economic impact.
The Shanghai Composite Index (CN:SHCOMP -4.77%) tumbled 3.8% to 1,888.68 by the midday break, reflecting deepening worries about the credit crunch in China.
At its current level, the Shanghai Composite is down 22.4% from its Feb. 6 high. The index has lost nearly 18% just so far this month, and has dropped in 13 of the past 15 sessions.
The Shanghai benchmark plunged 5.3% on Monday for its worst finish in nearly four years, as concerns that reluctance by China’s central bank to ease tight liquidity conditions in the interbank money markets would hurt small and medium-sized banks and borrowers.
“We are cautious at the moment and continue to watch the unfolding situation, as we believe the biggest risk comes from the [People’s Bank of China] potentially mishandling the situation,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s China economist Ting Lu.
“In our view, dealing with banks in breach of regulations should be done by improving prudential regulations rather than engineering an interbank credit crunch which could potentially backfire should banks lose mutual trust,” he said.
…
HEARD ON THE STREET
Updated June 24, 2013, 2:35 a.m. ET
Fed Must Show Reserve Amid Market Pressure
By DAVID REILLY
This time, the Federal Reserve can’t afford to blink.
Since the financial crisis, the Fed has repeatedly found itself forced to respond to markets, rather than lead them. This has usually taken the form of sharp selloffs that demand the Fed ride to investors’ rescue.
During the bleakest crisis days, the Fed often had little choice but to give in. Now, as markets again throw a tantrum upon hearing the Fed may soon start scaling back, it must hold firm.
The Fed for some time has discussed the mechanics of how it would remove quantitative easing. A more difficult issue is how to deal with the market’s psychology.
Through its extraordinary actions, the Fed has conditioned investors to think it always will be there in a pinch. Breaking that line of thought will be difficult and involve market tumult.
But the Fed has to accept a degree of upheaval as the price to be paid for weaning markets from its support. Failing to do so could set it up for even greater difficulties engineering an exit at some later point. And with stock markets until recently trading at all-time highs, along with the economy seeming to be on firmer footing, the time seems right to begin this process.
Granted, the Fed can’t let things get out of hand. It has spent several years trying to foster the “wealth effect” through higher share prices. Allowing that to unravel completely would undermine confidence and recovery.
A potentially bigger concern: debt markets, in particular housing finance. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are back above 4%. Although more than half a percentage point above recent lows, this is still historically low. So long as rates don’t rise too quickly, the housing rebound shouldn’t suffer unduly.
Indeed, the prospect of rising rates, coupled with increasing home prices, may induce more buyers to come off the sidelines. True, refinancing activity would probably take a hit, but that wave was due to crest anyway.
…
“Granted, the Fed can’t let things get out of hand. It has spent several years trying to foster the “wealth effect” through higher share prices. Allowing that to unravel completely would undermine confidence and recovery.”
so the Fed needs to hold firm…but not really?
Allowing that to unravel completely would undermine confidence and recovery ??
Thats an understatement….The question is how quickly do you take the patient off the pain reliever ?? Its uncharted water for everyone…This was the fed’s first test on cutting back on the medicine…
Oh, yeah. The same US government who ‘won’t let’ house prices decline apparently decided that they ‘won’t let’ the Chinese market adjust either. They also ‘won’t let’ Snowden go to Russia or leave Russia. Later today they will announce that they have repealed the Law of Gravity. Because they can control everything…
The old confidence game.
u gonna post more bogus data today?
Not my job. Ask the NAR.
Ask and ye shall receive:
Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Rise More Than Forecast
By Jeanna Smialek & Lorraine Woellert - Jun 20, 2013 (bloomibergi)
“Purchases of existing houses rose 4.2 percent to a 5.18 million annualized rate, the most since November 2009, the National Association of Realtors reported today in Washington. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia also said its factory index climbed this month to the highest since April 2011, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. “
He IS the National Association of Realtors®
“Realtors group admits sales figures were bogus”
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57345124/realtors-group-admits-sales-figures-were-bogus/
low-lifes.
your data is rubbish.
Comment sections are lit up this morning. A lot of people, both US and other citizens, appear to be enjoying the possibility of the our current administration w/egg on its face after Hong Kong and then Russia appear to resist US pressure.
appear to be enjoying
Yes, it’s great that he’s telling the Russians and Chinese exactly how we spy on them, since they are poor innocent victims who would never do such things to us.
Snowden just might be the black swan that brings about the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Whac-A, you follow these things. What would be the implications of such an event?
For sure, a real Casablanca moment.
Louis Renault: I’m shocked that there is gambling in this establishment.
One thing I hadn’t considered. I knew my government might have records of everything I posted, typed, said, place I went. But I hadn’t internalized the concept that foreign governments were doing the same w/my info until Snowden mentioned we not only spy on foreign governments but foreign citizens.
Your life, documented in detail in multiple storage locations all over the world. That veil of implied liberty is thinning. The point isn’t that they aren’t yet acting w/the power they hold over us. The point is how quickly it could turn around should someone decide to act. The system is in place for a darker scenario.
But this is a game-changer, for sure. And perhaps just in the nick of time.
There could be some really juicy revelations come out of this. I mean juicier than we’ve seen to date.
Ummmmm… Russia and China both knew that we spy on them and they have done the same to us for decades. No revelation there for normal folks. Most people in the US never realized that there own government was blanket-spying upon and warehousing every electronic communication of their own citizenry, despite their Constitutional rights. We were assured previously that was not possible. It was just a delusion of the right-wing loonies. NRA members and other freaks of nature. Conspiracy theorists. Tea-Party-crazies. Wacko-Libertarian psychos. This could never occur on the watch of The Most Transparent Administration In The History Of The United States. Not possible under the righteous gaze of a Nobel Peace Prize Winner. And now that it has been shown to be a fact, the citizens are shocked and pissed. And a lot of sycophants are in denial and all butt-hurt.
+1. Interesting to watch HK use Holder’s own tactics on him. Wow, that’s gotta hurt.
Nice rant.
Yeah, he’s on a real tour of libertarian states: China, Russia, maybe Cuba to Venezuela or Ecuador. All the states that would never spy on their citizens or violate their civil rights.
There’s probably nowhere he could go that would have hurt both his message and his position with groups like the Tea Party more. Maybe Iran.
“Not possible under the righteous gaze of a Nobel Peace Prize Winner”
Mind-blowing, isn’t it? The Nobel Peace Prize is now a complete, utter joke. Lol.
+1 Alpha…I agree…
I would add that, The genie is not going back into the bottle…Freedom, as we have known it and consistent with our constitution is gone unfortunately wether it be legally or illegally…
Next up, military coup! That’s how much the DeeCee city state has crapped itself.
“Yeah, he’s on a real tour of libertarian states: China, Russia, maybe Cuba to Venezuela or Ecuador. All the states that would never spy on their citizens or violate their civil rights.”
lol, how do you know where he is or where he’s going? Oh, right, google news, lol. Yes, I’m sure we’re getting accurate info on his whereabouts.
Oh, wait, President Peace Prize has a drone at the ready!
If the gov were one-tenth as evil as you openly claim they are, why wouldn’t they squash a hyperbolic little insect like you, jose?
how do you know where he is or where he’s going? Oh, right, google news, lol.
Then how do you know he even exists?
“If the gov were one-tenth as evil as you openly claim they are, why wouldn’t they squash a hyperbolic little insect like you, jose?”
needle-needle deedle-do. lol.
“all states that would never spy on their citizens or violate their civil rights”.
But that’s just it. On we held onto the fantasy that we weren’t being spied on, or that we had “rights”.
Try this little exercise in “rights”. Go contest a speeding ticket. Or any kind of misdemeanor citation. You’ll soon find that your only real choice is to write the check.
And God forbid that you challenge a cop’s “authority”, no matter how stupid/asinine his judgement. Asking questions they don’t want to answer is now considered “obstruction of justice”
“And God forbid that you challenge a cop’s “authority”, no matter how stupid/asinine his judgement.”
I’m tellin’ ya. I found this out the hard way (almost) when I rented an apartment that had formerly been occupied by some insurance scamster. Got a visit from both the local constabulary and a bounty hunter looking for the guy and his girlfriend. Quite the experience. Of the two, the bounty hunter was the most polite and apologetic.
A friend of mine who used to drive a lot for his business used to fight speeding tickets and win quite often, or at least get them reduced. He said the key was hire a good local lawyer, never fight it yourself.
But I don’t think cops’ words generally being taken over the average joe’s is truly indicative of a society without respect for civil liberties. It kind of goes with the job- they can come to your house and arrest you, the average joe can’t. The key is what happens when you both show up in court. Are you rubber-stamped into jail, or can you fight and win? Speeding tickets may not be the greatest test of this issue.
This just in. He’s sure won’t stop digging his hole.
Snowden sought Booz Allen job to gather evidence on NSA surveillance
Lana Lam
South China Morning Post
Edward Snowden secured a job with a US government contractor for one reason alone - to obtain evidence of Washington’s cyberspying networks, the South China Morning Post can reveal.
For the first time, Snowden has admitted he sought a position at Booz Allen Hamilton so he could collect proof about the US National Security Agency’s secret surveillance programmes ahead of planned leaks to the media.
“My position with Booz Allen Hamilton granted me access to lists of machines all over the world the NSA hacked,” he told the Post on June 12. “That is why I accepted that position about three months ago.”
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1268209/snowden-sought-booz-allen-job-gather-evidence-nsa-surveillance
needle-needle deedle-do. lol.
Does that translate to “I have no answer at all to your question”?
Alpha:
That just makes him even smarter. He knew the gubbmint was scum, but he needed to prove it. It also makes Booze-Allen even dumber. They knew they had something to hide, but they basically gave the info up without a fight.
Comment by alpha-sloth
” 2013-06-24 09:04:37
Yeah, he’s on a real tour of libertarian states: China, Russia, maybe Cuba to Venezuela or Ecuador. All the states that would never spy on their citizens or violate their civil rights.
There’s probably nowhere he could go that would have hurt both his message and his position with groups like the Tea Party more. Maybe Iran.”
And yet another butt-hurt, Obushma sycophant wrings his hands. I’ve got a news flash for you, Fanboy- “All the states that would never spy on their citizens or violate their civil rights.”- That was supposed to be us. The USA. America. “Its a free country” and “Right to Privacy” and “Land of the Free” and all that jazz right? This BS is what we always said the Communists did to their citizens. The Stasi in east Germany and the KGB in Russia. But its not just their evil governments is it? Its ours too. We were supposed to take the moral high ground and instead we screwed our citizens- JUST like them. And we hid it. And we LIED to our citizens about the infringements of their Constitutional Rights. We ridiculed and minimised those who tried to uncover the truth. And you apparently support that. Your a REAL American, huh? ‘My Obama, right or wrong’?
‘My Obama, right or wrong’?
And if Rand Paul wins the next election, he’ll more or less continue to do those things too. It’s called doing the best you can in a very difficult situation.
Will that make your butt hurt?
Yeah, he’s on a real tour of libertarian states: China, Russia, maybe Cuba to Venezuela or Ecuador. All the states that would never spy on their citizens or violate their civil rights.
You are one sick puppet of the state. He’s not going to these countries for their freedoms. He’s going there simply because may be and may be he won’t have to see American prison if he makes it to one of those countries.
maybe he is getting paid by them as a consultant…you know…so they can learn how a real government spies on its people?
“real government spies on its people?”
We are not the people of the city-state known as Dee-Cee. You’ve gotta realize by now that the USA is not Dee-Cee.
Domestic imperialism.
Ever hear those words used in tandem to describe the U.S. government orientation toward its own populace?
I hadn’t heard them used in conjunction either, so I came up with it myself.
Like it! With one caveat: the US government has been usurped by the DeeCee city state and its clients.
I know of no other phrase that will get liberal deniers to take note of what their revered government is doing TO THEM.
It’s time to toss political parties and culture wars aside and fix the problems that will cause ALL of us great harm.
The Tea Party and OWS alike were on to something, both true and correct. That both were co-opted the first time out doesn’t mean it will always be that way.
Wise government and banking elite will quietly support such efforts. Wise elites know that if push comes to shove, they will be forced to eat one another.
Alpha:
What evidence do you have that Snowden is telling the Russians and Chinese exactly how we spy on them?
What evidence do you have that Snowden is telling the Russians and Chinese exactly how we spy on them?
None, of course, none of us has any evidence, except what we get from the news, which is apparently only believable when it agrees with one’s own views.
However, Russia and China aren’t rubes when it comes to working an intelligence asset like him, and they’ve damn sure got him over the barrel. Heck, they literally own him right now.
Snow-DEN! Snow-DEN! Snow-DEN!
USA! USA! USA!
Sno-DEN! USA! Sno-DEN, USA!
We’re all on the same team, dudes.
“Because they can control everything…”
Well, there are two pieces to this thing:
1. Snowden’s knowledge of the use of the tools of the state against its own people.
2. Snowden’s knowledge or REAL NSA chit.
It seems that he is using #2 to keep the gubmint at arm’s length. He’s playing a risky game. Personally, I hope he presses #1 without screwing it up by overplaying #2.
“1. Snowden’s knowledge of the use of the tools of the state against its own people.”
That’s the crux, IMO. The spy game is as old as the history of nation-states on the planet. There’s probably really nothing that major governments don’t know about each other.
But let’s dispense with the popular fiction that DC is anything other than some crazed city-state ruling the territory known as the US. Treason? Espionage? Who are the real criminals? And by the way, criminals like to accuse others of those things that they themselves are doing.
It’s rather fun seeing Pelosi and Feinstein up on their hind legs braying about treason and justifying the spying of the
DC gobmin.
Even more fun to see old Lurch muttering “deeply troubling, deeply troubling”.
Amazing the guy’s head doesn’t explode trying to reconcile what he was with what he’s become.
You go, Lurch! Give those Russkies what for!
+1
But MSNBC told me NSA spying is perfectly fine since it’s for the children. This is so very confusing.
Watch Pelosi and Feinstein floppin’ around like hooked trout.
best line from a pelosi heckler:
Pelosi said something like there should be a balance between liberty and security and heckler said “it’s not balanced!”
i think a better thing to say would have been “how do we know if it’s balanced or not”!
Wow, DeeCee is in deep, deep confusion this fine day. Feinstein and Pelosi just morphed into Bush-Cheney, HK stuck it to the DOJ, Snowden’s journey has turned into a game of Button, Button, Who’s got the Button?, the Gang of Hate is trying to push through a surrender to Mexico and Lurch ping-pongs between telling Russia its actions are “deeply troubling” and telling India to reduce its carbon emissions.
Jose -
DC isn’t confused. The populace is.
The Neocon-Progressive Party runs all of Washington.
Pelosi = Bush = Feinstein = Cheney.
This type of occurrence will happen with greater frequency, and will do so until the idiot masses finally figure it out.
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
the most evil place in illinois, 430 north michigan avenue:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20130622_130733_362-zdW3WIVt.jpg
Your incalculable losses could have been avoided if only you went here instead:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20130622_141101_523-GSQJ6fAt.jpg
The Eye of Sauron!! The unbounded Evil in the heart of Mordor!
OT: Guys drives car like Terminator Arnold (NSFW)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA_I__i97Uc
Hello all.
http://picpaste.com/8820ba353a0da9538a2849258014f73b.jpg
I was away the past 5 days enjoying the beaches, seafood, and fishing at this place ^^. Sad to report, the RE there is beyond insane.
Here in middle earth, real estate is pretty dead. Most of the local properties that I see for sale signs on are failed flips that have been held off the market for the past couple of years.
Well obviously upstate NY is a bit different than the Hamptons. I expected to see Hamptons RE down a little bit because of the Sandy aftermath. It seems like people took it as an opportunity to go bigger & better. Also, the dunes in front of the $10MM+ properties were higher than I’ve ever seen them. All of our tax money at work. That beach pass I posted is along Dune Road in Southampton, some of the priciest (per sq ft) RE around.
My cousins’ marina & restaurant was completely underwater during Sandy. They rebuilt with insurance money and are just as busy as ever. Jammed on Friday and Saturday.
“Well obviously upstate NY is a bit different than the Hamptons.”
I don’t know why, though… seriously, if I was a hedgie, I’d drive a the extra hour or so to get to the Finger Lakes.
NYC to Southampton 2 hrs.
NYC to Ithaca 4 hrs.
Fingers over the Atlantic? No way.
NYC to Hamptons by helicopter - transit time to the helipad plus 45 minutes.
And it takes a heck of a lot longer than 2 hours to get there or back by car most of the time.
Finger lakes taxes are unhinged. Some of the highest in the country I’d wager.
“Finger lakes taxes are unhinged. Some of the highest in the country I’d wager”
As my liberal betters repeatedly tell me, high taxes = economic prosperity. So I have to assume the finger lakes region’s economy is on fire. Right?
As my liberal betters repeatedly tell me, high taxes = economic prosperity.
No, it’s higher taxes on the wealthy = economic prosperity. Higher taxes on the poor and middle class = economic depression, like we’re having now after trying out trickle down economics for a generation.
“My cousins’ marina & restaurant was completely underwater during Sandy. They rebuilt with insurance money and are just as busy as ever. Jammed on Friday and Saturday.”
Further evidence of Depression 2.0…oh wait….
They’re not a good example, their place is right off Montauk Hwy near Shinnecock Hills golf course. You have to use the canal past their marina if you go from Long Island Sound out to fish in the Atlantic. And you have to drive past it to get to places like Southampton, Bridgehampton, Easthampton, etc. It’s kind of like Warren Buffett’s idea of a “moat” that keeps competition out.
Hamptons weather is better and the accessibility is alot [sic]better. People go there for the parties and the people (networking) though. There is very little cache about anything in upstate NY and the property taxes are ridic anyway. The golf and fishing are really good in Hamptons (I don’t golf, but Shinnecock hosted the US Open 2 or 3 yrs ago and it is a public course).
Suffolk County (where the Hamptons are) caps property taxes. I’m not sure how it works, but there are people who have 10, 20, 30MM dollar houses but pay comparatively little property tax. I’ll have to post some examples sometime. In Finger Lakes you’d probably have to pay ridiculous property taxes that the “dead zone” areas of upstate NY are notorious for.
All of upstate NY can be characterized as an economic dead zone.
I think that’s correct. I know a disproportionate number of people who have fled upstate NY forever, either for college or later after going to a SUNY or Syracuse (I know a lot of Syracuse people in particular bc my best friend since childhood went to college there). Upstate NY is over until Oil City plans become a thing and people give up on having careers.
Stay and starve or leave and thrive.
Blue Skye,
I posted remarks of the local market down the highway from you. Hasn’t shown up yet. I agree quite a few previous sales were obviously flips cuz they’re all back on. One on for far lower than they bought it for even though they put a good deal of work into it. Looks like panic pricing. We also have quite a bit of inventory that never came off the market. I’m assuming those are foreclosures or really stubborn types that “aren’t going to give the house away”.
I see the more expensive places coming on mls w/pricing like it’s 2006 again. They obviously believe the local news shill that has told them prices are up even though you can take a gander at recent sales and see only low priced stuff is moving. Those may be rentals selling to investors who haven’t yet gotten the memo. I do not see very many moving trucks like I used to this time of year a few years back.
We don’t see too many movig trucks either. Our faithful economic index is the winery limo index. Saterday three were sighted. Normal on a summer weekend day is 30. Also I note that there are no new wineries this year. zero.
Here at the redneck yacht club slip vacancy rate is shocking. Traffic is pathetically low. I like the quiet, but others wonder if the place is going to fold. I’ll have a better view of things on the NY/Ontario waterways in a week or two.
This opened this month in our locale. I heard there is an amphitheater so more than just the sipping of wine available for entertainment. There is no competition in the immediate area. People can tap their budding teenage driver for a ride home instead of the limo.
http://www.oweravineyards.com/
I was wondering when you were doing your canal trip. Thanks for keeping us posted.
Blue Skye
What Ontario waterways this summer? 30,000 islands?
Our marina is full with a waiting list ! For the last five years !
But gas dock, which used to have a line of boats waiting, hardly ever services more than two or three a day now.
Unless there is an offshore racing doo.
Hi Patrick,
I shot for Georgian Bay last year but only made it to the Kawarthas. Had to turn back for urgencies at home. It was hot and we put the miles on. My mate wants a more relaxed cruise, so it will be anchoring at the sand dunes for weeks upon end, then up to Westport. I’ll do the 30,000 isles when I retire and can be to Peterboro by the time my partner’s vacation starts.
If you are around Kingston this summer, there is always a cold one in the ice chest. Blue, of course.
Have a nice cruise, dude. We’re planning on being back in upstate next summer for 3-4 weeks.
Money velocity in middle earth is quite a bit lower than on the coasts. Money velocity is greater in areas populated by the banking and government elites.
Both have drained much wealth from middle earth, which is why there’s no Bubble Version 2.0.
As can be expected during Government Bubble eras, the banking and government elites will eventually be forced to eat each other.
If restaurants and bars being crowded is indicative of a good economy, then my part of middle earth is booming.
Ya think EddieTard? Applebees?
I’m happy to say I haven’t eaten at an Applebee’s in over 20 years, but they do seem crowded when I drive by one.
I’m told it’s their 2-for-1 happy hour that brings ‘em in.
Both of our local ones have closed in the last year.
“Here in middle earth, real estate is pretty dead.”
+1 No land shortage in flyover.
Or anywhere else for that matter considering 95% of the globe goes undeveloped.
Because a lot of areas are uninhabitable.
I think most places are habitable. It’s just impossible to produce enough from there to trade for the things from elsewhere that you want and need to be able to live successfully there. But if you already have all the supplies you need you can live almost anywhere.
if you already have all the supplies you need
I will go so far as to say that you can live anywhere in the universe if you have all the supplies you need.
What buyers? Housing demand is at 1997 levels and falling.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/03/20130328_house2.jpg
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®
“purchase the least amount of home that meets your needs”
“bear in mind, too, that bidding wars have returned… if your budget is $300,000… you should be shopping for homes listed at $270,000″
- Suze Orman , O magazine July 2013 p 43
July 2013 huh?
Now I know you’re a fraud mimi.
Maybe I have ESP and can predict the future.
Maybe publishers mail out their mags a couple weeks early ….. but that’s not as interesting or as accusatory.
And how’s that working out considering $300k is 225% higher than long term affordability trend?
Let me help you out with that question………
Answer: Not so well Mr. Housing Analyst. Housing demand is at 17 year lows because prices are grossly inflated.
Maybe Julian Assange leaked Ophra’s July edition.
He must have mailed it to me because I’m speshul.
+1 speshul
Look at our Sad Pandas.
GAO Data Adds Fuel to Contractor Pay Debate
(Let me know if this is behind a paywall, I can cut/paste entire article. I forget whether this is one of our firm subscrpitions or it’s free, our librarian batch emails out links in the AM, all I do is click.)
—————
“Democratic legislators have seized on new data published by the U.S. Government Accountability Office to support estimates that the government could save about $500 million per year by lowering the amount it pays toward contractor salaries, but experts warn that after years of struggle, the legislative battle is only likely to get uglier.
Following the GAO’s Wednesday report, lawmakers introduced three separate legislative proposals renewing efforts to crack down on payments to contractor executives. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who has previously pushed for lowering the cap to match the salary of the U.S. vice president, authored an amendment included in the Senate’s immigration bill that would lower the cap for contractors on border security projects to $230,700. Sens. Manchin; Barbara Boxer, D-Calif.; and Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa; as well as Rep. Paul Tonko, D-N.Y., reintroduced separate bills in the House and Senate that would cap all government contractors’ reimbursement at $230,700.
The renewed push to lower the cap would have to be reconciled with the Senate’s current version of the National Defense Authorization Act, which lowers the cap to $487,000, and the House-passed NDAA, which keeps the cap at its current level of $763,000 and slows its escalation in future years. With those bills already underway, the GAO report may simply deepen the rhetorical divide on the issue rather than swaying legislation this year, said C. Peter Dungan, an attorney with Hogan Lovells.”
Here’s the link to the article: http://www.law360.com/governmentcontracts/articles/451778?nl_pk=9d07ff26-0986-46de-917f-4b7f3ce1f9dc&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=governmentcontracts
Lots of juicy stats from the GAO.
Ah, such a game, this contractor issue. What fun!
How is it a game? People want to cut food stamps, OK, but they’re not interested in also cutting down on the incredible amounts of graft among the contractor class? If you are familiar with how fed gov contractors work, you realize that they have guaranteed contracts (multi year deals) and get all their costs covered by the fed gov. They are doing what had been considered core govt functions in the past. Several _million_ have security clearances, several hundred thousand of which are at the top level.
Not sure how this is a “game” to you. To me, it’s a game bc contractors get to use the bejeesus out of the gov’t anytime the gov’t is slow to pick up a cost or when the contracting process goes awry. To the taxpayer, this should not be a game. It’s much, much more money than the things the tea party professes to care about so much.
I thought contractors were all bootstrappers and federal employees got thier jobs thanks to Head Start ?
What I really see is all high tech is H1B visa
Know your meme.
Government employees are useless, fat, lazy slobs just taking up space and counting the minutes until they can retire at age 42 with $300,000 annual pensions and unlimited free breakfast buffet at Shoney’s for life.
Government contractors are born free. Government contractors are flags, eagles, magnetic ribbons. Government contractors are restore our future. Government contractors are taking America back. Government contractors are born on the fourth of July. Government contractors are little pink houses for you and me. Government contractors are our long national nightmare is over. Government contractors are whip inflation now. Government contractors are morning in America. Government contractors are thousand points of light. Government contractors are tear down this wall. Government contractors are keep on rocking in the free world.
goon, we can always count on you to lighten the mood. Awesome.
Come on that’s unfair. Not ALL govt workers are fat.
Reality is govt workers can retire at 57 with a lifetime pension and health benefits. It’s not $300K but it’s enough to live comfortably. I know from experience as both my in-laws did just that. They worked for 30 years each for the feds, made decent but not great money and now have 20-30 years of retirement paid for my the tax payers.
And it’s something that virtually nobody in the private sector has.
The federal pension was cut in half for people who started working sometime in the 80’s (’83, I think - might be ‘86). The absolute maximum you can get now is 40% of average of last three years (overtime and/or bonuses excluded) and to do that in you example, you would have to start working when you are 17 to get 40 years in.
Your in-laws may have had it, but most of the current work force does not.
“And it’s something that virtually nobody in the private sector has.”
Well then, everyone must suffer!
“Why buy a house now at these massively inflated prices? Rent for half the monthly cost and buy later after prices crater for 65% less.”
“Manhattan rents are coming back toward earth”
http://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2013/02/13/average-manhattan-rent-dropped-for.html
“Why are apartment rents falling in D.C. but rising in Philly?”
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/Why-are-rents-falling-in-DC-but-rising-in-Philly-.html#BgkHLr4RJ1PPuftw.99
“DC Rents Are Falling. Are House Prices Next?”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/11/dc-rents-are-falling-are-house-prices-next.html
Well d`oh…
Schadenfreude opportunity for me. I know many people who have mortgages in the ballpark of the maximum backed by FHA, around the $750k mark. If DC prices go back to 1998 levels, even in nice areas that means people will lose a couple hundred thousand. And there are a lot of formerly-marginal areas that could basically become ghost towns again.
DJIA was down 240 and still falling last time I checked.
Would now be a good time to buy the dip?
Too early. IMO, there’s another 6-10 percent drawdown to go.
We haven’t had a correction in the U.S.A. since September-October 2011. Twenty months of upward trajectory with no pullback is a long stretch of time.
That said, mine is only a thought/opinion. I don’t proclaim to know what will happen. Our economy is such a distorted mess that predicting what will happen is folly.
Fundamentals are great when you can apply them to something readily understood. I no longer understand our economy.
No.
Short on Savings, Americans Still Feeling Positive
By Janna Herron | Bankrate.com – 5 hours ago
Americans are feeling very secure about their personal finances, according to Bankrate’s June 2013 Financial Security Index. The index registered 102.7 in June. Not only is that a record high, it also marks the first time the index has been in positive territory for four straight months since the index’s creation in December 2010.
The index came back with other positive records, too. The percentage of those feeling less secure about their jobs and those reporting lower net worth than last year hit all-time lows. Only 1 in 5 Americans felt their overall financial situation got worse versus the previous year, tying the lowest reading from April 2013. And 30 percent of consumers felt more comfortable about their debt, a new high.
“As an adviser from Michigan, we haven’t seen good times since before 2001,” says Richard T. Feight, a CFP professional. “(But) finally I am hearing a little optimism from clients on their situations, many of which are starting their own companies for employment.”
Recent data back up the nationwide enthusiasm. Sales of new and previously owned homes are rising, while home values are growing year over year. Job growth, while not spectacular, has been steady. Employers added 175,000 jobs in May, in line with expectations. Other measures of consumer confidence have risen along with retail spending.
“I’m fielding fewer inquiries on buying gold and more about putting more money away for retirement,” says Brian Frederick, a CFP professional with Stillwater Financial Partners in Scottsdale, Ariz. “I see more people wanting to take a risk.”
Still short on savings
Where Americans could use a boost is in their savings. Americans who feel uneasy about their savings outnumber those who feel comfortable by a ratio of nearly 2-to-1, according to the index. Nearly half of those surveyed have less than three months’ worth of expenses or nothing at all in emergency savings.
“Psychologically, people think nothing bad is going to happen to them,” says Frederick. “Additionally, with interest rates being so low and the stock market doing well for the past 18 months, they feel that having a big emergency fund is not in their best interests because it doesn’t earn anything.”
Since the recession, some have focused more on debt reduction rather than building savings. And other Americans have already run through their savings after a job loss, Feight says. More than a third of unemployed respondents have no emergency savings, compared with about a fifth of employed respondents.
“Three months’ worth of expenses is hard to think about when you’ve been trying to find work for so long,” says Feight. “People who (are) unemployed or underemployed are just trying to get by.”
‘felt more comfortable about their debt’ = good times?
“Go away! I’m ‘baitin’!”
I know there are some other ZH fans here. Anybody else listen to the secret tapes from Anglo-Irish Bank as the execs laugh about defrauding the ECB and selling the Irish taxpayers down the river?
“Anglo-Irish Picked Bailout Number “Out Of My Arse” To Force Shared Taxpayer Sacrifice
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/24/2013 09:23 -0400
“The Irish people, who sacrificed their sovereignty and billions of Euros, are waking this morning to a stunning revelation that the bailout to save Anglo-Irish was engineered by the Bank’s leadership to game as much money as possible from the central bank. The Irish Independent has secret recordings from the period in 2008 - below - that show senior management luring the State into giving it billions as they admit the EUR 7 billion number was “picked out of my arse.”
The bottom-line is that the bank knew they were in trouble and so decided to game the Central Bank and their regulators knowing that once the State began the flow of money, it would be unable to stop: ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-24/anglo-irish-picked-bailout-number-out-my-arse-force-shared-taxpayer-sacrifice
Who wants to make a bet that we could have made similar tapes with our banksters?
I’ll take bet for $17 TRILLION
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-last-mystery-of-the-financial-crisis-20130619#ixzz2WpbAMA5e
In incriminating e-mail after incriminating e-mail, executives and analysts from these companies are caught admitting their entire business model is crooked.
“Lord help our fucking scam . . . this has to be the stupidest place I have worked at,” writes one Standard & Poor’s executive. “As you know, I had difficulties explaining ‘HOW’ we got to those numbers since there is no science behind it,” confesses a high-ranking S&P analyst. “If we are just going to make it up in order to rate deals, then quants [quantitative analysts] are of precious little value,” complains another senior S&P man. “Let’s hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of card[s] falters,” ruminates one more.”
Why is this being revealed now?
Hey folks,
Some of you may remember me. I check in about every year or so, been reading since the blogspot site years ago. Here’s the data point.
I bought an apartment in NYC in 1996 for $62K.
I sold that apartment in 2006 for $520K.
I invested my profit in a very diversified way. My plan was to pretend I didn’t have the money, live within my means, and then have a retirement when I turned 65. I invested in bonds, stock indexes, REITs, commodity indexes, and stock mutual funds. I was as diversified as I could be.
The investments went up to $650K over two years.
I couldn’t afford to live in NYC any more, even with a good salary, so I left New York for rural Japan where I got a teaching job. I figured I would just take my family around the world, teach English, live within my means, and not worry about retirement. Well, as my mom always said, “Life is what happens to you when you’re making other plans.”
In 2008 I lost 2/3s of my money in the crash. I was now down to much less than I started with. I had about $200K.
Suddenly my retirement plan was not going to happen. I felt trapped in rural Japan. After three years there, my money went back up to $400K, a bit less than I’d started with almost a ten years prior.
I spend the whole wad on a 1-bed apartment back in NYC. I have low monthly costs, my wife is working, I’ve gotten some of the coolest jobs of my life. But we’re a family of 3 in a 1-bed apartment and we have no retirement savings.
And that original apartment that I bought for 62K and sold for 530K in 2006…It just sold for $825K.
That’s my story. New condos going up everywhere in my neighborhood. Lot’s of work in NYC. When I visit my hometown in Michigan I see more “we buy gold” signs and prostitutes on the corner of a neighborhood that I grew up and and used to be nice.
There seem to be the places with jobs that are crazy expensive, and the places without jobs that are cheap but…there are no jobs.
And you’ll buy that same apartment for $62k once again.
And that original apartment that I bought for 62K and sold for 530K in 2006…It just sold for $825K.”
hmmmmmm timing is everthing you have to be lucky or a Genius to time this market
Its a zero sum game now if you won then someone else losses no raising tide in todays forcast
sounds like you came out even ? not bad considering many have blown up never to return to the dwindling middle class
“There seem to be the places with jobs that are crazy expensive, and the places without jobs that are cheap but…there are no jobs…”
the time
This is what happens during Government Bubbles. Locations teeming with government boom; areas with lesser government presence suffer accordingly.
When societal assets aren’t pooled by those on the take (who tend to congregate BTW), wealth tends to be more evenly distributed geographically and socio-economically.
I’d like your input on what you have seen happen to your personal freedom and liberty during the timeframe you cited above.
“I’d like your input on what you have seen happen to your personal freedom and liberty during the timeframe you cited above.”
My neighborhood has improved drastically since 1995 so I feel much more freedom and liberty to move about when I please. My wife can come home after dark without fear, in the past that was not the case.
When I lived in Japan I enjoyed access to excellent health care, which was a freedom in itself. Now that I’m back in the US, I pay $600/mo. for a lousy plan with a $20K deductible, so my family is one expensive hospital stay from financial ruin. That’s not exactly a limit to my freedom, but it does weigh on my mind.
As for any other freedom or liberty, I travel where I want, when I want. I speak my mind and have no fear of government reprisal. I’ve never had the government restrict my freedom of travel at all, or my speech.
The one thing that has been a new restriction on my freedom and liberty is that during the occupy protests, the police started creating “free speech zones” where people were “allowed” to demonstrate. Which effectively means the rest of the city is not a free speech zone. That is unconstitutional and I consider that a change in my personal freedom and liberty, but so far that’s the only one.
Thank you, knockwurst. Your commentary is noted.
Good luck to you!
Welcome home knockwurst and family.
“When I lived in Japan I enjoyed access to excellent health care, which was a freedom in itself.”
You’d enjoy a documentary online on PBS Frontline “Sick Around The World”.Japan is 1 of the top 5 health care systems around the world. One segment featured Japan.
Thanks for the story Knockwurst…Sorry you lost some dough…I believe I remember you posting that you were off to Japan to teach…
And that original apartment that I bought for 62K and sold for 530K in 2006…It just sold for $825K.
What part of NYCity?
East Village, 7th St. and Ave. C.
You sold what could’ve been a PAID OFF apartment in the EAST VILLAGE?
O.M.G.
There has got to be more to this story… please tell me you didn’t sell a place with that location because you thought the world was going to end when the housing bubble burst. You should’ve had a paid off place, I just don’t understand.
You were in NYC, presumably in a nice area, not flyover country. Why not just pay off the piddling $62k mortgage and keep your NYC job? I don’t understand why you took such a drastic step to start over in rural Japan (unless that’s what you would’ve done regardless of money issues).
There have to be parts of this story that are missing….
As I said, I had no retirement savings, and I had a family in 750 Sq. ft.
I had a chance to make a half million dollars, and I didn’t want it all in one asset. So I sold and moved away.
As it happened, I made money, lost money, then made some back.
Now I’m basically back to where I began. I own an NYC apartment on the lower east side outright, and my wife and I are both working in the city.
In the meantime, my son learned Japanese and I got to have an adventure.
A WONDERFUL adventure, from the sound of it, and a lifelong memory for your family. Can’t put a price on that.
Good to see you again, knock. Always wondered how that teaching gig was working out for you.
Imagine how much better off you’d be if you had shorted the stock market with that money, instead of losing 2/3. It didn’t crash by 2/3 though.
As my sergeant used to say, “If ifs and buts were candies and nuts what a happy Christmas we’d have.”
If you search the phrase “stagnant incomes” on the Internet you’ll find a slew of stories about how wages, median pay and income are languishing, and haven’t kept up with inflation for all but the highest paid.
So it should come as no surprise to learn that about three-quarters of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new survey by Bankrate.com. The survey also found that about 27% of those polled had no savings at all and 50% had saved less than three-months worth of expenses, or not even half the six months worth that experts recommend.
Related: Short on Savings, Americans Still Feeling Positive
It’s not all bad news though. Bankrate.com says people are starting to feel better about their finances. “Only 1 in 5 Americans felt their overall financial situation got worse versus the previous year, tying the lowest reading from April 2013. And 30 percent of consumers felt more comfortable about their debt, a new high.”
However, it’s a long road to recovery. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll found that 58% of Americans think the U.S. is still in recession even though the recession officially ended four years ago.
“The middle class is getting fired,” says James Altucher, author of the new book, “Choose Yourself: Be Happy, Make Millions, Live the Dream.” He tells The Daily Ticker, “The bulk of people are getting either downsized, or outsourced, or globalized… and temp staffers are filling the holes, or people around the world are filling the holes.”
So what’s a worker to do?
Deal with it, advises Altucher. He writes, “Jobs are disappearing and every industry is in the process of transformation. In order to keep up, individuals have to transform also… you have to choose yourself.”
Flip homes ?
Flip to who?
Housing demand is at 1997 levels and the homeownership rate is at 1996 levels. Do you think that might have something to do with the fact that there are 25 MILLION excess empty houses in the US today?
There is something that can change it all in a hurry. What is that you ask? Price.
Housing prices falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels results in a rapidly accelerating economy.
Who’s this Altucher clown? About what other things can he “advise”?
Such statements of dubious intelligence and prowess do not a career make.
they are all clowns
Agreed.
That’s why I visit this board and a few others…our frequent self-checks on each other are quite beneficial once the short-term dust-ups settle down.
He is the author of a blog post entitled “Why I Would Rather Shoot Myself In the Head Than Own a Home”. He also says the stock market is rigged.
You should read his stuff. He’s smart and thoughtful, if a bit unconventional at times.
James Altucher. Marie Antoinette’s progeny.
“So what’s a worker to do?
Deal with it, advises Altucher.”
Let them eat cake!
VIVA OBAMA!!
SI SE PUEDE!!
Today is the big vote. Might get north of 70 votes. Exciting times for the 30 million future lifelong Democrat voters of America.
Obamacare V 2.0. 1000 pages bills that nobody ever reads and then votes for blindly. I guess we have to pass it to find out what it’s in it….
“Democratic senator Ben Cardin admitted that he won’t be able to get through all of the Corker-Hoeven amendment, though the Senate is set to vote on it Monday afternoon. The bill, which runs nearly 1,200 pages, is seen as a virtual rewrite of the Gang of Eight’s legislation, aimed at strengthening border security measures to bring more Republicans on board. “I can’t tell you I’ll read every word,” Cardin said over the weekend. The Maryland senator added that he “already read a great part of the bill,” and will “closely scrutinize” any changes to border security.”
And this is total BS. There is NO BORDER SECURITY in the bill. Corker-Hoeven is nothing but “the secretary shall” nonsense, just like Obamacare.
VIVA OBAMA!!
SI SE PUEDE!!
Okay, I’ll stick it in here -
A message to any and all:
Has there been any discussion here during the past three weeks or so about the potential impact that amnesty will have on housing fundamentals?
Lots of newly-minted, poorly paid wage slaves does not seem to bode well for our struggling economy - including housing.
Will all these homes being purchased by government-backed “investors” essentially be given away?
Either way, I am quite pleased that I do not live in state being decimated by these “investors”.
Thoughts, anyone?
40 million new lifelong Democrat voters have to live somewhere. Don’t you worry, Senor Obama and Senor Rubio (it’s only a matter of time before he switches to “D”) will take care of their constituents.
40 millions is almost the population of Spain. Think about it for a moment.
Make them legal; give them work visas and such but DO NOT make them citizens.
“40 millions is almost the population of Spain. Think about it for a moment.”
But it’s a great way to drive a big nail in the middle class.
Obama said Wednesday that a global climate accord is needed.
“With a global middle class consuming more energy every day, this must now be an effort of all nations, not just some. For the grim alternative affects all nations — more severe storms, more famine and floods, new waves of refugees, coastlines that vanish, oceans that rise. This is the future we must avert,” Obama said.
UN Agenda 21/Sustainable Development is the action plan implemented worldwide to inventory and control all land, all water, all minerals, all plants, all animals, all construction, all means of production, all energy, all education, all information, and all human beings in the world. INVENTORY AND CONTROL.—-Rosa Koire
Here’s the basic problem with housing: Every time the “average person” buys a house, it generates a deleveraging event that can last for decades. Typically, people reach to try an afford a house on the belief that a) their wages will go up in the future, b) inflation will whittle away the house payment and c) the house will appreciate leaving them with a nice profit.
HOWEVER: This ignores the deleveraging event. Typically, the buyer will be forced to draw down spending on other items in order to service the house. Several studies, since the mid 90s, have found that housing increases unemployment. Not for the homeowner but for the area.
Enticing a poorer person to buy a house a) reduces their mobility and b) generates a deleveraging event. For someone in the professional classes or skilled trades, and is experienced, they can probably remain employed but the deleveraging event is still generated, drawing down their spending on other items.
So… the society has an unexamined belief that housing is good for the economy. But it’s more like a drug - it has an immediate benefit in jobs and economic activity but a long term hangover in the form of the deleveraging event.
As far as another amnesty goes… if current policies continue, I think it would be a wash for housing. More people in houses but a continued downward pressure on employment. Additionally another amnesty would almost certainly depress wages, in addition to increasing social safety net spending and increasing unemployment. So… probably a wash for house prices. It might increase housing buying and selling transactions though, which the NAR would like.
It sounds like you’re describing any situation where you commit most of your available cash to one thing for the foreseeable future and can no longer afford to buy other things that you would have otherwise purchased. So you’re also describing student loans and major medical service purchases, correct?
You offer some incredible, thought-provoking posts, Neuromance.
Thanks.
Carl Morris: So you’re also describing student loans and major medical service purchases, correct?
Certainly, anything that generates a deleveraging event - a “payback hangover” - would suppress non-debt-service economic activity.
The payback hangover/deleveraging event from the smaller debt-based transactions may well be less than the initial economic activity generated, yielding a net surplus. But the correlation of increased homeownership rates with increased unemployment suggests to me that the hangover from a house purchase is greater than the benefit of the initial economic activity.
MacBeth: Thanks! I’m glad Ben Jones has provided a durable platform on which we can muse and argue about these remarkable economic events. My opinions should be viewed critically. If they survive the necessary critical review, then perhaps they might accurately describe reality.
“Here’s the basic problem with housing:”
Published on Jun 20, 2012
12 Year Old Girl Tells The SHEEPLE the Truth about ROTHSCHILD CORRUPT BANKERS and ECONOMY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1IgiNnOZV4 - 148k
So many conflations and assumptions in your theory as to render it useless. Also, it ignores history.
sell Bonds sell Gold ( I don’t have any so who cares) buy stocks. dumb plan ? I don’t know but it’s my plan
ease into stocks who knows how low this will go we’ve seen it before though once a year ding ding
About housing ? Buy Housing now ? I have no idea seems a bit late for that though…
My Brother in law is getting booted from San Tan Ranch South of Phoenix as a Canadian Investor has bought the rental he’s in. No worries he only has 4 kids and a mother in law living with him.
When a bank announces it’s got no financial problems, then is the time to start becoming concerned.
“PBOC Sees ‘Reasonable’ Liquidity in China’s Financial System”
June 24, 1:19 AM
Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-24/china-central-bank-says-financial-system-liquidity-reasonable-.html
KEYYYYYYRAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSH!
What was that!?
That was the sound of housing prices crashing through the floor in your neighborhood.
There ain’t nothing left but the cryin’, a life time of debt and a smoldering moon crater.
What’s the matter with you all, worrying about housing and spying and race and immigration? Don’t you have any sense of the really important issues of our time?
“Transgender 1st-grade girl wins bathroom lawsuit”
LOL, beam me up, Scotty.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-24/morgan-stanley-analyst-swaps-research-for-home-rebabs.html
We’ve heard a lot of this before, but the point I want to note specifically:
“While they’ve dominated some foreclosure auctions and complete the biggest bulk purchases, the pool of institutional ownership is still less than 1 percent of the $2.8 trillion rental market, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.”
The major buyers are a teeny-tiny part of the rental home market.
And rental rates continue to fall.
Yup especially in the 4 or 5 states the majority of the biggest bulk purchases are.
The rental turnovers I’ve had this summer went up 38% and 7%.
There was some major fix-up involved with the former, very little with the latter.
If you give bankers control fo the money supply they will eventually control everything because they control the cycles of inflation and deflation. That’s what’s going on. WS went short bonds and stocks early in the year. BB is giving them what they want, just like he gave them what they wanted when he bailed them out of the bad loans and insurance contracts they made. It’s that simple.
Inflation is a non factor, Unemployment stats are a joke. The only reason there has been any improvement is that companies are moving to part time workers to avoid having to pay for insurance. More and more will be pushed to part time < 30 hours/wk which will certainly reduce unemployment but won’t do much for GDP. Certainly income after deducting expenses is falling. China is falling from a fantasy peak, Europe is a mess.
If we can deal with health care affordably, a 30 hour work week counld be good for this country. We don’t need as much labor now due to automation. It’s not good for society to be divided into the overworked an the non working.
test
Phoenix area MLS inventory still lower than historical average, but there was quite a jump from a week ago: 15,392 to 17,453.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/arizona/phoenix/
So, way back in the summer of 2008 I started a “Zillow Biggest Loser Contest” for my co-workers and friends who owned houses/condos here in Los Angeles and around the country. We started out with a summer contest, then did monthly contests, and finally crowned the “Biggest Loser” for the year. The way to win, of course, was to have your house fall the most in a given month or year. Oh, what great fun we had as the market crashed! It was funny to see everyone all excited to see if they won the monthly contest. We were all rooting for the prices to fall. (I rooted the hardest as I rent and had refused to take everyone’s advice when I moved to LA from NJ and buy.)
I had a very strict criteria for allowing someone to get into the contest: as soon as they uttered phrases like, “My area in Palmdale, CA is different. My area actually goes up!” Or, “My condo is in Oxnard near the water. My area actually goes up, not down.” Boom! They’re in the contest! (And, yes, those are actual quotes that got both co-workers into the contest and they both won multiple months during the contest.)
Well, it is 2013 now and we have our “Zillow Biggest Winner Contest” going this year as prices RISE. I tell people it is like a roller coaster going up, up, up to the top…then, it goes flying down. I don’t know how long the “Biggest Winner” contest will go on, but I am so looking forward to the next “Zillow Biggest Loser Contest” starting soon! Once it does, I will post monthly results here on the HHB.
I love this, Zillow.
A friend’s house in Malibu fell $42,300 this month over last. Does that count? (It’s up about 5k over last year, but we’ve still got five months to go).
Vacant foreclosed homes highest in Florida
by Kim Miller
A foreclosed home sits vacant and deteriorating in a Boynton Beach neighborhood last year.
The number of foreclosed homes that have been abandoned by their owners is by far the highest in Florida with 55,503 properties sitting empty and in some stage of a bank takeover.
That’s 33 percent of the national total with Illinois coming second with 17,672 vacant and foreclosed homes.
In a recent report from the Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, the firm also found that Florida accounted for 85 of the top 100 Zip codes in terms of total owner-vacated foreclosures, led by Zip code 34668 in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area.
South Florida, including Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties had the second highest number of vacant foreclosures of major metropolitan areas nationwide with 13,901.
Recent changes in some of Florida’s courts should start bringing those numbers down as undefended foreclosures are set for trial by judges and moved through the system. But the practice has been controversial with some foreclosure defense attorneys and homeowners concerned that defended foreclosures are also given short shrift.
Also, Florida’s new fast-track foreclosure bill might help get the vacant properties back onto the real estate market quicker if lenders are prepared to move forward with taking back the homes. Judges and defense attorneys often claim the banks are the ones dragging their feet on repossessing the homes.
“Efforts to prevent unnecessary foreclosures and mitigate their impact on home values have resulted in a foreclosure process that takes an average of 477 days nationwide, and more than two years in some states — which is holding many of these must-sell properties off the market,” said RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist. “Even if all these homes flooded the market simultaneously they would likely not cause the once-feared double dip in prices given supply constraints from non-distressed sellers and stronger demand.”
This entry was posted on Monday, June 24th, 2013 at 7:24 am and is filed under Florida economy, Foreclosures, Housing affordability. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
10 Responses to “Vacant foreclosed homes highest in Florida”
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Delray Resident Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 8:02 am
The reason they aren’t being foreclosed upon faster is because the banks don’t want to ‘dump’ these back on the market. Only the high-end stuff is going back on the market. I have a few in my neighborhood that would be sold in an instant if the banks were willing to offer them at a decent price.
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Kellee Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 8:42 am
We are in the midst of buying the house we have been renting for the past three years the bank keeps turning down every offer and has now closed the file and we have to start the process all over again. They are asking a ridiculous price and if it were to foreclose they would be sitting on it and probably ask less then what we are offering , the banks are not working with anyone and really jacking prices on decent homes while letting others just sit and decay, they want top dollar and know that if they out the foreclosure s on the market they won’t get it. So much for the bank bailouts and the insurance they get its such a scam and now that they have the largest number of homes in their pockets and have what they want they are now jacking up the intrest rates …what a scam …. All I want to do is buy this house and they are not cooperating and they have refused every modification and effort of my landlord as well .
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gethefax Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 9:52 am
Some Lenders/Investors are waiting out the market…they have enough cash to wait a hellava lot longer tthan the average income earner, and moreso since they were bailed out by Uncle Sam, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their in a bargaining position, they hold the upper hand, a Royal Flush sort of speak…
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Vacant foreclosed homes highest in Florida – Palm Beach Post (blog) | snack news Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 11:11 am
[...] Palm Beach Post (blog) [...]
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Vacant foreclosed homes highest in Florida – Palm Beach Post (blog) | Kansas City Coupons News Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 11:13 am
[...] Palm Beach Post (blog) [...]
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Toni Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 11:29 am
The bank waited so long to do anything with a house foreclosed on in my neighborhood since 2007 that when they finally put it on the market at the end of 2012 it was in such bad condition (mold, etc.) that they could not sell it and finally brought in a wrecking crew and took the whole house down. Now they are trying to sell the vacant lot for close to $50,000 grand…good luck with that one. And on the buyer end they are killing deals by sending out appraisers who low ball the property under the selling price. Banks were never too big to fail, our government was just too busy trying to maintain corporate profits and that all started at the end of Bush’s term as President and continued when Obama took over. The banks and the brokerage houses should have failed and maybe then they would have learned a lesson.
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Brian Korte Says:
June 24th, 2013 at 12:30 pm
In most, but not all cases, vacant homes are not likely being defended against foreclosure. The incredibly high number of vacant homes in Florida clearly show that lenders have no interest in moving faster on foreclosures. It’s easy to lay blame on homeowners working to save their homes from foreclosure with the assistance of a defense attorney, but these numbers paint a pretty clear picture of why so many cases are lingering in the courts.
My prediction is that few banks will exercise their option to “fast track” foreclosures under the new law. However, everyone is caught in the same bad policy by South Florida’s courts to set all pending cases for trial. Watch how many times lenders postpone the sale dates on those homes.
Vacant foreclosed homes highest in Florida
Given all the housing fraud and corruption in California, I think they’ve got FL beat in terms of sheer volume of excess, empty and defaulted housing.
OK NSA you guys know I was pissed for a while, but now I am starting to feel bad for you. So here are a few tricksI have learned through the years that might help you out.
There are a number of things we can do to make our Whistleblowers want to come when we call them.
•Call Whistleblowers Name and then say…. Come! Snowden, Come!
•Be very clear to your Whistleblower with what you want from him (don’t use other phrases and become inconsistent – come here, here traitor, by me, over here, etc.).
•Turn your body facing away from your Whistleblower (less intimidating, more inviting)
In Whistleblower body language, when the front of your body is facing him it means stop or back up. Try an exercise in Hong Kong – Stand in front of your Whistleblower and slowly walk in towards him. I bet you he will either just sit there or walk backwards…
•Have you ever seen Whistleblowers play chase with each other? One Whistleblower turns and starts running and then the other Whistleblower chases after him. If you are facing your Whistleblower and start to walk or run towards him, he is pretty likely to run away from you. So – Play chase with him and make HIM chase YOU! Turn your body away from your Whistleblower and even walk or take little jogging steps away from him to entice him to come to you!
•Use quick repeated sounds. Quick repeated notes have been proven to make Whistleblowers come or move faster. Click-Click-Click, clapping your hands, patting your legs, etc.
•As soon as your Whistleblower comes to you, give him a treat and praise!
Best of luck
non-conformist
Hmmm, Yahoo Finance locked all it short ETF and leveraged long ETF message boards like DXD,QID,DOG, ZSL,AGQ, SDS, TBT, etc. I wonder if there is some liability issue at hand or if something else is going on. I go to read some of the posts on those boards every blue moon to see if any thing is said of humor. All of a sudden, nothing.
Is your investing style more feral hog or scared sheep?
What’s your view — feral hogs or scared sheep?
June 24, 2013, 2:18 PM
The market has sharply reacted to last week’s Federal Reserve decision, which to some indicated that interest rates would be going up sooner than anticipated. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher likened market participants to “feral hogs.” We’d like to hear your opinion.
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