The Housing Bubble

The Santa Cruz Sentinel reports from California. “Near historically low mortgage rates, relatively low median home prices and solid median income have joined to create an excellent buying opportunity for the prospective homebuyer. In fact, the last time that housing affordability reached a high was in 2000 and as we all know, housing prices went on a tear for the following 6 years; that is, until the bubble popped. Housing affordability has been improving since it reached a low in 2007, when mortgage rates were stuck in the 6 to 7 percent range and home prices reached their peaks — the median price in Santa Cruz County hit a high of $790,000 in August. May’s median price in Santa Cruz County is $625,000, which represents an increase of 25 percent since May, 2012.”

“Although economists like to say that monthly housing costs should stay below 25 percent of household income to remain affordable, the mortgage industry allows a borrower to spend up to 50 percent of their gross monthly income on their PITI (Principal, Interest, Taxes, Insurance), which is a much higher ratio than we were able to offer homebuyers when I got into the business in 1986.”

“Given housing affordability today, real estate might just be the best possible investment that one can make. When you buy a home, you are combining a good investment opportunity with owning your own home with a forced savings account; it is a winning combination.”

The Los Angeles Times. “Real estate agent Mickey Knickerbocker was as surprised as anybody when her client closed on a $905,000 Manhattan Beach town house using ‘piggyback’ financing: a two-mortgage deal designed to minimize the down payment. Popular during the housing boom, piggybacks all but disappeared after the mortgage meltdown taught banks and regulators a big lesson: Borrowers needed to have skin in the game. So the loans seemed like a throwback to the days of carefree lending, especially on such a pricey property.”

“With home prices rising, risk is creeping back into mortgage lending. In addition to creative down-payment arrangements, mortgages on high-end properties — so-called jumbo loans — have also gotten plentiful and cheap. Meanwhile, banks are accepting borrowers with lower credit scores and allowing them to take on more debt relative to their incomes, experts and industry professionals say.”

“‘I don’t think, a year ago, I could have gotten loans that would have served this purpose,’ Knickerbocker said. ‘I didn’t even know … that this was going to be possible.’”

From CNBC. “Only a year after the housing market bottomed, ‘bubble’ talk has surfaced as soaring, double-digit price gains sweep markets across the country. An open house in Cheviot Hills—a neighborhood in West Los Angeles—attracted 150 people and brought in 14 bids before the home sold for 7 percent above the listing price at $2.9 million. ‘Prices in some areas are just out of control,’ said Scott Tamkin, an agent in Los Angeles. ‘As soon as a good property comes on the market at a reasonable price—bam! It’s gone in multiple offers, often times in cash.’”

“‘I wouldn’t be surprised if a bubble happened again,’said Eileen Bermingham, a local realtor servicing the Bay Area. ‘It definitely has the same characteristics as the last time it happened. People are afraid prices are just going to go up and up and up.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “A posh golf course community in rural Placer County that bankrupted bridge-building magnate C.C. Myers has been relaunched under new ownership. But the question remains: Is the Sacramento region’s housing market ready for the Winchester Country Club, with its million-dollar houses in the boondocks? Even during the housing bubble, Winchester had trouble selling its pricey lots. Now, however, experts say it may be perfectly poised to attract part of the massive wave of retiring baby boomers, especially with the price of entry for a house and golf membership far below what it was in the mid-2000s.”

“In a phone interview with The Bee last week, he estimated he lost $150 million on Winchester. He also lost his own palatial home in the development in 2009. The bank initially listed the unfinished home for $1.5 million, but in 2010 Myers bought it back for $650,000. Today, Myers, 75, lives in the hilltop home. ‘Our dogs like it, and we like it,’ he said. ‘As much money as I lost up there, I ought to be able to get something back.’”

“Home sites that Myers said reached $600,000 at the height of the housing market boom are currently valued in the $200,000 range, said land appraiser David Jarrette. Construction estimates range from $100 to $200 per square foot, builders said. ‘This is going to be a test for the market,’ Jarrette said.”

NBC Los Angeles. “A new national survey says homebuilders are feeling optimistic about sales, and in parts of the Inland Empire, like Corona, new home construction is booming. But the construction comes as foreclosure filings took a noticeable jump over the past several weeks, putting Riverside and San Bernardino counties in the top 15 highest foreclosure rates in the state.”

“According to RealtyTrac foreclosure filings in Riverside county actually went up 13 percent in May from April and 9 percent in San Bernardino county. ‘What you have is a legacy of still a large number of homes that are underwater where they haven’t been paying and I think the financial institutions are starting to take action,’ says John Husing, an economist in the Inland Empire.”

“He says in January there was a noticeable lull in foreclosure filings, which could be why foreclosures are now climbing. ‘And they’re now in the process of catching up,’ says Husing.”

The Fresno Bee. “Fresno City Council Member Clint Olivier on Thursday introduced an act that would cut development impact fees for builders and encourage infill development within the city. The idea is to make it affordable for owners of vacant residential city lots, one acre or smaller, to rebuild the homes that once stood there. There are nearly 3,000 empty lots collecting trash, weeds and inviting crime in the city, Olivier said.”

The Desert Dispatch. “A lower cost of living has drawn a new migration of residents from the Los Angeles area to the High Desert, but many of the new arrivals have struggled to find work. Shauntay Lazard, 24, a single mother of two-year-old twin girls, moved three months ago from East Los Angeles — first coming to Victorville to stay with a relative before getting her own place in Barstow. She had a simple explanation for the choice. ‘It’s cheap,’ she said.”

“Lazard said Barstow was recommended to her by the San Bernardino County Housing Authority in order to avoid a year-long wait for government subsidized housing in other parts of the county. A former student at California State University, Los Angeles, pursuing a bachelor’s degree in finance, she said she is continuing her education online and job-hunting. So far she’s had no luck. ‘I’ve applied everywhere,’ she said, ‘I’ve been putting in applications but I haven’t heard back.’”

“While some want to get out, there are plenty trying to get in. David Andre Johnson, a Realtor in Barstow, said that the housing market in the High Desert is at ‘an incline.’ On Thursday, he was showing a home to a family of five from Long Beach. ‘You really are starting to see people move up from the Los Angeles area,’ Johnson said. ‘I think they’re basing it off the price of the economy and low crime. I guess they’re looking at Barstow, Victorville, Apple Valley and the High Desert in general as a better place to raise a family.’”

“But he also said many home offers in the High Desert are being made by investors. ‘The housing market is definitely picking up pace,’ he said. ‘We see a lot of houses that have sold and they’re having multiple offers on them. … It started picking up toward the end of last year.’”