Throwing Out All Rational Home-Buying Practices
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Despite a devastating housing crash and a persistent recession, house flipping is back. So too may be the housing bubble. It looks like people haven’t learned much in the last seven years. Back in May, NPR reported on the return of house flippers, noting, ‘Flipping is up in some parts of Southern California by as much as 45% over last year. And in April, the region reached a milestone: Home sales hit their fastest pace in seven years.’ Most economists are applauding the growth, citing the boon it’s been to recovery of the broader economy.”
“Of course, that was the opinion back in 2002 as well. Back around the time Paul Krugman famously blogged: ‘To fight this recession, the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that… Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble…’ Mission accomplished. And we’re still not done paying the price.”
“In March, Rudy Dvorak, the founder of ReInhabit, sold a three-bedroom, two-bath bungalow in Echo Park, a low-income neighborhood in central L.A., for $922,000 after a bidding war. The firm had paid $300,000 a year earlier, renovated the property, and hung a chain saw on the wall as art. On the popular real estate site Curbed, one commenter wrote of the sale, ‘The 1968 RCA console TV just shows that they have vision. You can sell anything to hipsters as long as you make them believe it’s hip.’”
“‘People are making all-cash offers of 10 percent over asking with no contingencies,’ Dvorak says. ‘They’re throwing out all rational home-buying practices and saying, ‘Here’s a suitcase of money.’”
“When most people think of the Katy of Sugar Land areas’ real estate market, flipping houses isn’t usually the first thing that comes to mind. But the practice has begun to gain popularity in Greater Houston’s outlying areas. Scott McClellan, president of NetWorth Realty of Houston, said that the practice has seen a resurgence due to a combination of an improving economy, a loosening of lender guidelines, and this country’s often short memory.”
“‘We quickly forget here in America,’ McClellan said. ‘And I think we’re far enough removed [from the 2008 financial crisis] that everything’s kind of coming together. We’re seeing the stock market doing great, people are making money, job growth — this is a culmination of everything. And then you’re seeing all these big money people up in Washington and California coming in and buying this real estate, so it makes sense. It’s just becoming more popular. It’s never gone away.’”
“‘There are neighborhoods where a week on the market is a long time now,’ McClellan said. ‘There are a lot of neighborhoods where if it’s not gone in a week, something’s wrong.”’
“Armando Montelongo Seminars offers long weekends of questionable advice, raucous showmanship and tours of foreclosed homes in some of America’s poorest sections. His secret formula: Go deeply into debt to buy distressed properties, fix them up minimally and sell them quickly. ‘People throw money at me to become multimillionaires,’ Montelongo, a large, stocky guy with shoulder-length black hair, tells the crowd. ‘This is the means to your end.’”
“The seminar company rates an F from the Better Business Bureau. ‘You don’t get anything substantive,’ complains Lori Jakubowski, a Realtor from near Pebble Beach, Calif., who paid $1,500 for two sessions. ‘There were a lot of people who were unemployed just looking for some easy way to make money. And I felt like an idiot because I was right in there with them.”
“American Homes has quietly amassed a still-growing portfolio of more than 650 houses from Clarksville to Spring Hill, becoming one of Middle Tennessee’s largest single-family landlords in just a year’s time, public records show. In all, the company invested more than $140 million in the Nashville area in that time frame. The company is among several large investment firms — backed by billions from Wall Street — buying houses nationwide and turning them into long-term rentals.”
“But Colony withdrew its IPO earlier this month, citing rising interest rates and market volatility, as American Residential and Silver Bay’s stock have fallen and remain below their initial offering prices. That has some housing experts questioning how long the buy-to-rent strategy can last, especially on such a large scale. ‘For now, it seems to be working for several companies,’ said Karen Gibler, a real estate associate professor at Georgia State University in Atlanta. ‘Long term, five to 10 years from now, I’m not so sure.’”
“Just north of Interstate 10 and Varner Road are five unfinished houses. These Santa Fe style homes sit in the middle of a dirt lot, vacant and vandalized. Visible are open garages with cabinets on the ground, graffitti on the windows, holes on the walls. According to officials at Riverside County, the houses have gone into foreclosure in the last few months, and the ownership of the properties has changed. They say the damage to the houses began under the new owners; they are trying to locate them to start repairs soon. Property records show each house was originally valued at about $500,000.”
“‘I just want someone to buy them up and sell them,’ said Bob Miller who lives in Indio, ‘I’d like to buy one.’”
“In rich and poor areas, homeowners have walked away from homes after they could no longer make their mortgage payments and banks gave notices of foreclosure. Even though the homeowners moved out, the banks have not completed the foreclosures or put the properties up for sale. ‘The scope of this problem is enormous,’ said Buffalo Housing Court Judge Patrick M. Carney. ‘Trying to get something done with these properties before they’re worthless – it’s horrible.’”
“Experts warn of another wave of homes headed into this foreclosure abyss. And what of the homeowners who thought they walked away from it all? They often end up surprised they are still legally responsible for the house. For years, Patrick V. Occhino thought he was free and clear of his former home in South Buffalo. Occhino, 29, bought the house in 2006 but walked away six years ago when he could not pay the mortgage.”
“He sent Wells Fargo his bankruptcy filing and considered his connection to the property finally over. He did not hear from the bank again. ‘I’ve been trying to get out of this house,’ he said.”
“Jim Rokakis was the Cuyahoga County Treasure. Rokakis is now the VP of the Western Reserve Land Conservancy, and has been appealing to officials at the state and federal level to make money available. ‘If we don’t deal with these distressed properties, there are parts of Cleveland and Dayton and Toledo and Youngstown that will end up looking like Detroit. The only way you get ahead of this problem is by aggressively moving after these vacant structures. If you don’t, the structures that are not vacant in those neighborhoods will become vacant,’ he said. ‘That’s not even a ‘maybe’ – that’s a ‘for sure’. Why would you live in a neighborhood where every other house is vacant? You wouldn’t. You’d leave.’”
“Marshall Chesrown, who became the face of posh housing and gated golf course developments in the region but struggled as the economy soured, has filed a $72 million personal bankruptcy to complete the stunning collapse of his fortunes. His assets include $500,000 of equity in a $1 million Legacy Ridge mansion still in his name, along with $9,500 in a retirement fund; $450 cash in pocket; $580 in two bank accounts; and several thousand dollars in furnishings and personal items.”
“In 1999 he made a big local splash when he announced plans to build The Club at Black Rock, a luxury golf community overlooking Rockford Bay on Lake Coeur d’Alene. His plans and projects were foiled by the housing bust and economic collapse of 2008. Within three years, he had either lost most of his projects to foreclosure or sold them. He has been named in at least 16 lawsuits and other legal actions in the past several years.”
“In court documents, Chesrown disclosed that he earns about $13,500 a month – not enough to meet his monthly expenses of $24,131 that include a $4,000 monthly lease payment for a Mercedes and two mortgages that together exceed $8,600. And Chesrown is not immune from the problems plaguing many people: In 2011, a prowler broke into his car and stole computers, an iPad, his wallet, passport and a watch, according to court records. He also lost $30,000 gambling.”
“New data shows that home prices in 20 cities jumped 12% from a year ago. That’s the biggest annual rise since March of 2006 (i.e. - before the housing bubble burst). the housing market isn’t the only sector to benefit from the boost in home prices. As real estate value goes up, consumers become more confident and less fearful about spending their hard-earned cash in other areas, too.”
“As S&P Dow Jones Indices’ David Blitzer says, ‘Rising housing prices have increased wealth. More people own houses in this country than own stocks, and as home prices go up, people are richer, and they feel richer.’”
“American Homes has quietly amassed.. more than 650 houses.., becoming one of Middle Tennessee’s largest single-family landlords in just a year’s time”
They’ve also bought 161 in Greenville County SC just this year. Yet on the “Find A Home” section of their website, they have neither TN or SC properties listed. What gives?
Just glancing through their NC listings, the homes look nice and the rent prices look pretty decent. I don’t see how they can make a lot of money that way.
Way out there on the other side of the country too!
“You can sell anything to hipsters as long as you make them believe it’s hip”
LMAO
There’s nothing “hipster” about consumerism.
‘will end up looking like detroit’
ha! cleveland already does. we lived there from 2006 to 2009, the same period that the slavic village neighborhood and many other parts of the city went into subprime mortgage meltdown.
wtf does cleveland have left? a few corporate hq’s downtown and a casino. the health-care industrial complex on the east side anchored by the cleveland clinic, university hospital, and case western reserve university, which are an island surrounded by decay and poverty. they built the euclid avenue transit corridor to bring back the midtown corridor, but bring it back to what? and bring who back?
all the jobs are in beachwood or other outer suburbs. when we left, the rot from cleveland was already spreading into inner ring suburbs like lakewood, garfield heights, parma, maple heights.
My wife is from Cleveland and my inlaws still live there. They are the baby boomers who retired and bought a much larger McMansion after the kids moved on. What was their thinking? I’m not sure, but they got sucked in. Every time they visit we get the “we’d like to move but we’d take a bath on the house” thing. When you drive down their newly developed neighborhood I’d say about 30-40 percent of the houses have for sale signs on them, hoping that someone can get them out of their misery.
As for my wife, she has no desire to move back (I could go either way), but she sees moving back to Cleveland as “I failed in life and have to come back” since so many of her friends either moved out and aren’t looking back or haven’t left because they are scared to succeed. Cleveland is seen in her eyes as a failed area full of retired boomers. If you want to have an area grow you need to get younger educated people in there and working decent jobs. Austin, DC, Columbus all have this - Cleveland does not.
“I failed in life and have to come back”
Sad, but largely true. We went to Football Factory State University in Columbus and stayed there for a few years after undergrad. Most of the people we know who grew up in the Cleveland area stayed in / moved to Columbus after college, if they did not move out of state.
i can relate to your post, although i’m on the parent side of he story. when our kids were young we “bought” a large house that was big enough for everyone. i would frequently tell my husband that i wanted to live there forever so the kids would always have a place at home. since then we have downsized twice and currently live in a very modest 2/2 (1200 sf). those teenage years cured me of the whole “big house” thing.
Lemming
We downsized as well. We cut 4,000 st ft in half, and could not be happier. It’s not the size of your home, it’s the feeling of “home”. This one-story is perfect for this older gal.
I do miss the 3 car garage and the closet space.
inchbyinch, now that you mention it, that was another big factor in selling the bigger house. all of the bedrooms were upstairs. and i really feel as i get older, that less is definately more (at least for me).
But the difference is that they bought a much larger house when they moved out, and the house they grew up in was a really nice place.
I’m guessing my MIL thought she’d have a small army of grand kids roaming through the house, which never ended up happening.
I have a few grandkids to spare if she’s interested.
“If you want to have an area grow you need to get younger educated people in there and working decent jobs.”
+1 Unfortunately our leaders can’t see past the po-folks.
I was walking my dog the other day, looking at the new construction and all the for sale signs, and wondering what it says about us: what it says about the builders, the lenders, the realtors, the speculators, the economists, the media, the politicians, and the broader culture that sustains it all. I couldn’t think of a single positive thing.
The bottom line is that this is obscene. We are a foolish people and we will get what we deserve.
I’ve heard advertisements for these types of seminars on the radio. Why do people think you could get rich in one weekend? Also, if I had the absolute lockdown secret to flipping houses and making boatloads of money - WHY would I waste time putting on a seminar or selling it to people for a few hundred? Wouldn’t it be a better use of my time to keep flipping And earning?
exactly, so the the only logical explanation is that you’re not a philanthropist like the seminar selling people.
Why do people think you could get rich in one weekend?
Because there are a lot of people who are nowhere near as savvy as the HBB crowd. Our BS detectors are better than, oh, 90% of the US population.
Who made the money during the California gold rush? It wasn’t the guys doing the digging.
It was Levi Strauss & Co. Isn’t that a business school case study? And here’s another question: after this debacle, should we even have business schools? I’ve seen a number of articles on falling law school application rates, which have deans questioning everything but the role of the legal profession today, which is the one thing that should be questioned. I’m curious as to whether more people are seeking MBAs.
Much the same with housing. Lenders make fortunes on housing. Buyers take a hosing on housing.
For years, Patrick V. Occhino thought he was free and clear of his former home in South Buffalo. Occhino, 29, bought the house in 2006 but walked away six years ago when he could not pay the mortgage.”
Look up Eaglewood Avenue in Buffalo. There isn’t a house worth more than $50K (if that) for blocks and blocks. It would cost more to rehab those houses than the houses are worth. Mortgages on these houses are sub-$400/month. And yet people still can’t afford them.
Here’s the closest house:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/72-Columbus-Ave-Buffalo-NY-14220/30215925_zpid/
Looks decent, but it only has two bedrooms and a “large attic” which is listed as a third bedroom. Paneling all over the place (seriously, how did people in the 70’s live live in cave-dark houses?), and zero-lot-line for land. And it sold in 2005 for $28K. It’s now listed for $70K. Good luck.
“More people own houses in this country than own stocks, and as home prices go up, people are richer, and they feel richer.’”
Love how this is just stated as fact. They’re richer only if they sell, and only if they can sell for more than they paid, and only if they didn’t suck their equity out with re-fi’s or HELOC’s. Several if’s.
Umm…if you want to be very technical about the numbers, negative $10,000 is “richer” than negative $30,000. Not sure if it has any impact on spending, and I would describe it as slightly less broke than before, not richer, but you can make the argument.
I wonder if anyone has good numbers on how many Americans (Canadians, othes) know what their net worth is off the top of their heads and can get it right to within $20,000 or within 10% or whatever metric you want. I don’t keep terribly close track of my retirement accounts, but I’m sure I could get within 10% on the total.
“It looks like people haven’t learned much in the last seven years.”
I was stunned that a housing bubble recurred in the Northeast a mere 20 years after the one in the 1980s.
Del Sur to Celebrate Grand Opening of Six New Model Homes This Saturday
Tours of newly designed one- and two-story model homes will begin at 10 a.m.
Standard Pacific Homes’ Carrillo at Del Sur in San Diego
Top-tier builders Standard Pacific Homes and Brookfield Residential have both built functional, stylish homes that we know home shoppers will be eager to tour and quickly appreciate.
SAN DIEGO (PRWEB) June 28, 2013
This Saturday, June 29, Del Sur will debut six brand new model homes crafted by builders Standard Pacific Homes and Brookfield Residential. The grand opening celebration — offering tours of luxury model homes and a taste of local cuisine — will take place starting at 10 a.m.
“Top-tier builders Standard Pacific Homes and Brookfield Residential have both built functional, stylish homes that we know home shoppers will be eager to tour and quickly appreciate,” said Bill Ostrem, president of Black Mountain Ranch. “The newly designed residences are a fantastic addition to our community.”
Existing Del Sur builder Standard Pacific Homes is continuing its quality craftsmanship within the community with the introduction of Carrillo, a collection of 52 detached homes. The builder will introduce three new two-story home designs ranging from approximately 2,483 to 2,973 square feet with four bedrooms and three baths. Two of the floor plan designs include bonus rooms. In addition, optional flex space provides opportunities for a home office or game room.
The inspiration for Carrillo comes from California Bungalow, Italian Revival, Mediterranean Farmhouse, Rustic Cottage and Spanish Colonial home styles. Carrillo will be priced from the low $700,000s.
In addition to touring Carrillo’s three models, guests will be treated to a street taco, side of chips and water or soda from local favorite, Puesto Mexican Street Food.
Brookfield Residential is bringing sophisticated Mediterranean style to Del Sur with its new 51-home neighborhood, Brookfield Sentinels. The builder will showcase three model homes, with one- and two-story floor plans ranging from 2,784 to 3,388 square feet. Morning home shoppers visiting Brookfield Sentinels will enjoy a pancake breakfast, while afternoon guests are treated to coffee and biscotti. Visitors will also have a chance at a $100 opportunity drawing.
Homes at Brookfield Sentinels will include three to four bedrooms, 2.5 to 4.5 baths and two-car oversized garages with storage space. The luxury residences will also include expansive courtyard space, playing to an indoor-outdoor lifestyle and taking advantage of surrounding mountain views and open space. Prices will start from the $900,000s.
…
More evidence this is not going to end well for mortgagors.
Whac-A-Bubble, please file a report on the taco truck on Monday.
Wha-huh?
I will be visiting relatives Monday in one of the housing bubble ground zeros (one of fifty or so!): Ohio. Will plan to offer reports.
Ohio foreclosures still a major problem
Thirty-five of Ohio’s 88 counties, including Huron County, reported more foreclosures in 2012 than in 2011.
Scott Seitz
Jun 22, 2013
The number of foreclosure filings in Ohio dropped in 2012, but one research group says foreclosures remain a major problem.
Ohio had 70,469 new properties enter foreclosure in 2012, down 1.5 percent from 2011 and 17.6 percent from the number of cases brought against property owners in 2010, according to Supreme Court of Ohio statistics.
Foreclosure filings in Ohio peaked at 89,061 in 2009.
Statewide foreclosure filings increased 14 consecutive years through 2009 before dropping in 2010, according to Court News Ohio, a court system news service.
However, the foreclosure rate is still four times what it was in 1995, according to analysis by the group Policy Matters Ohio. Policy Matters is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institute with offices in Cleveland and Columbus. The nonprofit studies public policy issues.
“The economy cannot recover with 70,000 new foreclosure filings a year,” said David Rothstein, Policy Matters project director for asset building, and author of the group’s annual foreclosure report “Housing Insecurity” released in May.
“It’s so divided by zip code and area by where things are getting better and things are staying the same,” Rothstein said.
Thirty-five of Ohio’s 88 counties reported more foreclosures in 2012 than in 2011, Court News Ohio said.
…
Since there is not much of a Main Street economy anymore, flipping is back because, as they say, “When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”.
There are millions of people in this country who aren’t smart enough to be “creators/producers”, but are too smart to just let them slide down the crapper with the Lucky Ducks, because they could do some real damage to the 1%ers bottom line, if they decided to throw a monkey wrench in the system. A 21st century version of the Civilian Conservation Corps.
Their skill set is comparable to the Wall Street banksters-scumbags, but the banksters don’t want to face new competition.
“In court documents, Chesrown disclosed that he earns about $13,500 a month – not enough to meet his monthly expenses of $24,131 that include a $4,000 monthly lease payment for a Mercedes and two mortgages that together exceed $8,600. And Chesrown is not immune from the problems plaguing many people: In 2011, a prowler broke into his car and stole computers, an iPad, his wallet, passport and a watch, according to court records. He also lost $30,000 gambling.”
Sounds like a real pillar of the community.
1) This is insanity. If he were urging people to create a corporate entity, and have its money be used for going deeply into debt, that would be one thing. If the SHTF, and the gamble goes bad, the individual’s money is safe and the creditors fight over the assets of the logical construct. The owner walks away, finances intact.
But doing this with your own money? If you lose the game, you’re on the hook for paying it all back, with interest. The creditors fight over your assets.
People don’t understand that it’s really ill-advised to try and structure their personal finances like a corporation’s.
2) He is “hacking the human.” If there is something you want to hear, and someone tells you that thing, no matter how logically ridiculous it is, you’re likely to believe it. He’s telling them what they want to hear.
See, here’s the thing. The “job growth” just means that some unemployed people now have jobs that pay 20% less than they’ve ever made before, but they are not necessarily on stable footing at their respective companies. The rest of the statement is true.
Yup.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/29/chart-median-household-incomes-have-collapsed-during-the-recession/
o, GAWD. Here we go again.
No, you are not richer when the market value of an asset rises. You are richer when you sell after the price increase. Why oh why do we have to repeat these same points? I thought we were done with that!
“Why buy at house at these massively inflated asking prices when everyone knows you’ll get ripped off? Rent for half the monthly cost and buy later after prices crater for 65% less.”
This isn’t our typical Friday group of stories from around the world, but it has come to my attention that there is an outfit in Medellin, Colombia called First American Realty. Hilariously, the slideshow of the city’s sights prominently features young attractive women; it’s not a secret that the prostitution franchise is booming down there presently.
Real estate. Sexcapades. What could possibly go wrong?
“Live Like a King Now”
“Own a Piece of Paradise”
http://www.firstamericanrealtymedellin.com/
This is really pathetic, though oh so honest and even a bit entertaining.
Underwater no more and wanting to stay put
Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
An aerial view of a residential area photographed on November 9, 2010 near Pittsburgh, Pa.
by Andrea Gardner
Marketplace for Friday, June 28, 2013
Until recently, my only experience in the real estate market has been as a loser. In 2007, my husband and I bought a tiny condo for way too much. Within months, the market tanked, and our mortgage went scuba diving. Then we had two babies in two years. Picture my condo deflating — shrinking in both size and value. There was a lot of crying in that shoebox, and it wasn’t just the babies.
I wanted out but couldn’t sell without a serious ding to my credit and my ego.
Every news story about the economy, every dinner party conversation, every glance at Zillow left me cringing as I faked a brave face: “Um, at least I’m getting a great tax deduction.”
I got the pity face from many a playgroup mom — both the self-satisfied renters and those who bought in the ’90s and still had equity in the wake of the crash.
I’ll be honest: I did consider the so-called “strategic default” — the parachute out of “underwaterclautrophobia.” But I didn’t default, short sell or forclose. I vowed to wait it out. We would sell this place the moment we could break even.
Well, that moment has arrived. But now, I don’t want to go.
It’s not that the condo isn’t cramped anymore. It still is.
But equity changes things. I’m starting to like the place again. It’s amazing how the little annoyances of your home fade away once you’re gaining thousands of dollars in value every month.
Those dinner party conversations have changed. When my renter friends looking to buy talk about getting killed in taxes, not being able to get a loan, or getting bid out by cash buyers, I’m standing there all smug like, “Yeah, I don’t know. I already own.”
It’s 2013, baby. I’m feeling like a winner. And I think I deserve this. I dug in my heels, and weathered a 1,000-square-foot condo with two toddlers underfoot. I’m tough. I learned about timing the hard way. And I’m not leaving this blackjack table just as it’s getting hot.
The clueless are soon to enjoy yet another lesson in experience’s dear school for fools.
Scary times hit mortgage shoppers
By Les Christie
@CNNMoney June 28, 2013: 7:28 AM ET
Laura and Mike Brewer are looking at higher mortgage payments.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
With mortgage rates rising at a record rate, it’s become a scary time for mortgage shoppers.
Homebuyers got blindsided by an interest rate hike of more than half a percentage point Thursday, the biggest increase in more than 26 years. Now, many shoppers don’t know whether they should scramble for a loan or wait on the sidelines.
Mike Brewer and his wife, Laura, shopped for a home for months before they finally gave up and decided to build a new place in Warrenton, Va. Since the new home won’t be ready until November, however, they can’t lock in a mortgage until September, said Brewer.
With rates rising by a percentage point over the past two months, they’re already looking at an extra $200 a month — and climbing — on a 30-year mortgage.
“We had been hopeful that rates would stay low through 2013, which is why we made the jump when we did,” said Brewer, who works as an IT director for a construction company. “Had we known the rates would spike, we might have changed our minds.”
Justin and Lori Aldrich really wanted to sell their ranch house in Grand Rapids, Mich., because it’s become a little small for the couple and their two young kids. They first listed their home in May for $144,900, figuring they could afford a place between $180,000 and $200,000, but then rates started climbing.
“Now, the amount of house we can afford will be just like what we already have,” said Aldrich, who designs machines for factories. “It’s disappointing. We feel like our chance to move up is passing us by.”
Last week, they cut the listing price on their home by $2,000.
…
“Last week, they cut the listing price on their home by $2,000.”
That’s smart.
What would be even smarter would be to keep cutting it by another $2,000 each week until it sells, as folks who could have easily afforded their wishing price at April 2013 mortgage lending rates are now priced out by late-June 2013 mortgage lending rates.
The market is changing way too fast for either official housing market statistics, or the journalists who follow them, to keep up. I keep imagining the Coyote with legs spinning in mid-air off the edge of a cliff after running a bit too fast while trying to catch the Roadrunner.
Paul Krugman “This would be a really good time for a bubble”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM6_yIVcP6Q
Vacant Vancouver Houses
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyDY2QYMkuw
Barn door left open.
All of the horses have fled.
Hurry, shut the door!
Is the U.S. Facing the Mother of All Bubbles?
June 27 (Bloomberg) — In today’s “Single Best Chart,” Bloomberg’s Scarlet Fu displays the gap between GDP and the Fed fund rate that suggests a coming bubble. She speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.”