The Housing Bubble

The key approach is analytical skills, and over the years it becomes habit. Languages come and go, but problem solving techniques are honed.

Everyday we should celebrate life. No one is getting out of this alive.

good one!

There were realtoRs in our July 4th parade today. What were they DOING there?

+1 Now that is funny.

There is surprisingly a lot of ties between music and mathematics. by music, I mean the classical kind.

Music is the poetic side of math.

Well put!

Wiki-up “Pythagoras”.

Bila, Prof, drummin,

You guys might enjoy this thought-provoking paper relating mathematical constructs to the cosmology of harmonics. A little light summer reading while digesting that mid-summer BBQ.

Big Bang Acoustics:

http://www.astro.virginia.edu/~dmw8f/BBA_web/bba_home.html

I think the vendors all dream up 100 certs to make us go through to boost their bottom line.

In your space, I can see how there might be a valid reason for certs: the vendors know that if the consultant who comes on-site doesn’t know the product well, and misconfigures it, it may fail or perform poorly such that the vendor is the one who ends up with a poor reputation.

it’s really your past code/software that speaks for itself.

Yep, exactly; nothing demonstrates competence like running code.

Interesting to hear that it’s similar to when I was last coding.

The more things change, the more they stay the same! I’m still writing system-software in C/C++, in spite of all the new languages, technologies, and certifications that have come and gone…

You notice no one argues with him when he refers to liberals as his “betters”….;-)

I thought there are no liberals here. Just independent centrist moderates who just happen to vote Democrat 99.98% of the time.

‘no one argues with him when he refers to liberals as his “betters”

‘Liberalism (from the Latin liberalis)[1] is a political philosophy or worldview founded on ideas of liberty and equality.[2][3] Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but generally they support ideas such as free and fair elections, civil rights, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, free trade, and private property.’

‘In Europe and North America, classical liberalism became less popular and gave way to social liberalism,[11][12] the latter of which is commonly identified with the liberal socialism and social democracy[13] in Europe. The meaning of the word “liberalism” also began to diverge in different parts of the world. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, “In the United States, liberalism is associated with the welfare-state policies of the New Deal program of the Democratic administration of Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt, whereas in Europe it is more commonly associated with a commitment to limited government and laissez-faire economic policies.’

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism

‘civil rights, freedom of the press’

So on this Independence Day, shall we reflect on the devotion “liberals” are showing to civil rights and freedom of the press? Or human rights and peace? Oh boy, “liberals” in these united States are sure confused, sad pandas. But cheer up, because a Nobel Hypocrisy Prize was just created for your hero in the White House! And all you “liberals” that put him there can share in the glory.

Dear Ben, some time ago liberals called themselves “progressives” until that term developed a derogatory meaning.
That is when they started calling themselves “liberals”, a true hijacking of the true meaning of the term.(Libertarian).

‘no one argues with him when he refers to liberals as his “betters”

The many time I have heard of liberals being referred to as “betters” it has been people like Rep. Diana DeGette who has been working on a high-capacity assault magazine ban for years, and has been deeply involved in the issue and wants everyone to think she knows better but in reality she doesn’t know WTF she is talking about.

I won’t get into betters Bloomberg and Biden, one who thought a semi auto rifle was full auto and the other who tells people to fire both barrels of a shotgun through the front door if they feel threatened.

Posted April 3, 2013, 10:10 am MT

As lead sponsor in House on gun legislation, Rep. Diana DeGette appears to not understand how they work

WASHINGTON — Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette has been the lead sponsor on a federal ban on high-capacity ammunition magazines in two Congresses, saying it’s one of her top priorities.

But Tuesday at a Denver Post forum on the gun control debate, the senior congresswoman from Denver appeared to not understand how guns work.

Asked how a ban on magazines holding more than 15 rounds would be effective in reducing gun violence, DeGette said:
“I will tell you these are ammunition, they’re bullets, so the people who have those know they’re going to shoot them, so if you ban them in the future, the number of these high capacity magazines is going to decrease dramatically over time because the bullets will have been shot and there won’t be any more available.”

What she didn’t appear to understand is that a magazine can be reloaded with more bullets

Clip: DeGette Magazine limit comment

Clip: DeGette “You’d probably be dead” comment

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2013/04/03/as-lead-sponsor-in-house-on-gun-legislation-rep-diana-degette-appears-to-not-understand-how-they-work/93506/ - 898k -

That’s an interesting entry about the word liberal there from Wikipedia. They make a good point there about how the differences in how the word is used around the world. For example, in Canada the Liberal party is similar to the Democrats - it’s the large center-left party. On the other hand, in Australia the Liberal party is the main rightish pro-business party.

It’s also interesting that they associate liberalism in America with support for FDR’s New Deal legislation. The most important parts of the New Deal -such as Social Security, the FLSA (which established the minimum wage and banned children from working in dangerous jobs, among other things), unemployment insurance and deposit insurance - are all supported by pretty large majorities of the American people. So if we’re going to use that definition, America is a mostly liberal country.

‘if we’re going to use that definition, America is a mostly liberal country’

So no more drone strikes on children, spying on reporters and people who aren’t suspected of a crime, no more undeclared wars, no more failure to prosecute wall street criminals because they are too big to fail? Right? Because we are all liberal now, everything is right and just? Right? Or is “liberal” just another false front the establishment uses while they screw us to the wall?

The undeclared wars and the warrantless surveillance of Americans and so forth are all deplorable things. However, I was commenting on the text from the Wikipedia article, which mostly has to do with economic issues. I was trying to counter the notion that American liberals are some small group of people with views far from the mainstream of the population.

Yes but at these lower prices, the actual spread, not percentage, is lower than when gold was above $1800 spot. Lots of long time gold buyers buy fractionals when gold is down, but buy one ounce coins when gold prices charge up.

Yes but at these lower prices, the actual spread, not percentage, is lower

As someone investing, shouldn’t you be most concerned about transactions costs to enter/exit a position as a percentage of the dollar-amount invested?

I still don’t get it…

Another good reason for fractionals: easier to sell at, say, swap meets or whatever, to people who might have the cash for a tenth ounce, but no cash for a one ounce.

Easier to buy TP with when TSHTF.

KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation). Ontario, Canada. 9,000 employees, $5 billion market cap.

Book value per share: $8.70 Wednesday’s closing price: $5.06.

52 week high: $11.20

Dividend: 0.16, roughly 3.16%

NEM (Newmont Mining Corp), out of Greenwood Vlg, Colorado. 16,000 employees; $14.4 billion market cap

Book Value per share: $27.94. Wednedsy’s closing price: $29.02

52 week high: $57.93
Dividend: 1.4, roughly 4.8%

Meanwhile temporary staffing company stocks enjoy all time highs. But the delay in the ObamaScare mandate knocked down the prices somewhat. If the mandate is totally removed (and I think very likely), the staffing stocks will plummet.

Sell staffing company stocks. Buy mining stocks!

Barrick Gold (ABX) looks even more attractive!

I put a buy limit on Barrick at $11.00 - Yes I think there is a likelihood of mining stocks falling further the next 60 days. But I think a reversal is in store.

Keeping a vigil!

This magical number, 50, could really be disasterous for an employer in that the cost of having employees can really jump through the roof if this number is exceeded.

Note: The cost doesn’t just jump through the roof for just the fifty-first employee, the cost jumps through the roof for ALL the employees.

Or taxes…

“Never understimate the power of incentives.” - Charlie Munger

So basically any company with 49 employees will never hire more employees and any company with 55 or fewer employees will find ways to cut that down to 49.

VIVA OBAMA!!
SI SE PUEDE!!

The silver lining in all of this for me is the fact hat the brain dead morons working in fast food who voted for Obama (he did win 80% of the high school dropout vote) are the ones going to be most hurt by this. You wanted change, you’re getting it.

“So basically any company with 49 employees will never hire more employees and any company with 55 or fewer employees will find ways to cut that down to 49.”

The number is actually 50 and the term “full time” needs to be thrown in but in essence you are correct.

A company that wants to expand past this 50-full-time-employee hurdle will have a lot of head winds facing it.

Right. The number is 50. So a company with 49 FTEs will do everything it can to never hire a 50th FTE. This is so weird though since Obama/Pelosi swore up and down Obamacare would help small businesses and create millions of new jobs. You don’t suppose they were lying do you?

The number is not 49, it is 50. The number 50 needs to be EXCEEDED for the extra costs to take effect.

Fine whatever. Then any company with 50 will do everything it can do avoid hiring a 51st. You’re playing semantic games and ignoring the bigger picture which is Obamacare is going to strangle small and mid sized businesses.

“You don’t suppose they werer lying do you?”

I don’t think it was thought through. Unintended consequences and such.

“You’re playing semantic games …”

No, I am not. I’m trying to use the correct number.

The rule has been suspended for a year.

“I don’t think it was thought through. Unintended consequences and such.”

But I thought Obama was the smartest man to ever live. You mean to tell me he didn’t envision companies who face $100K penalty for hiring a 51st employee would stop hiring? Odd.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/opponents-of-obamacare-predict-a-hiring-boom

Opponents of Obamacare Predict a Hiring Boom
Wednesday, 03 July 2013 04:02

That’s what they would expect if they ever took their own arguments seriously. The claim that the bill was a job-killer hinged on the notion that the penalties applied to firms with more than 50 workers who did not provide insurance would discourage hiring. The penalties also supposedly encouraged firms to reduce hours since they only applied to workers who worked more than 30 hours a week.

The economy should have already been seeing the negative impact of these requirements (contrary to what is implied in this NYT article) since the penalty provision was supposed to take effect in 2014 based on employment in 2013. This means that if the penalties actually were affecting hiring, then we should soon see a hiring boom as firms need no longer fear being over the 50 worker threshold in 2013. (They need not worry about this year’s hiring pushing them over the cutoff for next year. Roughly 3 percent of the workforce leaves their job every month (roughly half voluntarily and half involuntarily), so if hires in 2013 pushed employers above the threshold, they would have little difficulty getting back under the 50 worker threshold in 2014.

This means that the delay of the imposition of the penalty provides a great test of the extent to which the Affordable Care Act really is a job killer. Anyone taking bets on the size of the hiring surge in the second half of 2013?

“This means if the penalities were actually affecting hiring, then we should soon see a hiring boom as firms no longer fear being over the 50 worker threshold in 2013.”

But what about afterwards? If a business was a short-time affair then business decisions made for only a short time would not have to be concerned about what happens after 2013.

But most business aren’t planned to be short-term affairs (they may end up that way but not because they were planned that way). And if they are planned to last well past 2013 then information about costs need to be considered and incorporated into their long-term plans. This is tough to do if a costly rule is written and then suspended.

It is patently obvious Polly has never run a business and neither has anyone writing for cepr.net

IMO this rule would end up pushing a lot of low-wage jobs across the border into Mexico. Not the high-wage jobs, just the low wage ones. And not all the low-wage jobs, just the ones where the number of full-time employees exceed 50.

The factory-type jobs.

“IMO this rule would end up pushing a lot of low-wage jobs across the border into Mexico. Not the high-wage jobs, just the low wage ones. And not all the low-wage jobs, just the ones where the number of full-time employees exceed 50.

The factory-type jobs.”

AKA, Obama’s base.

May they all feel nothing but pain and misfortune for decades to come.

““Anecdotal evidence suggests that some retailers and restaurant chains have already started to limit employees to working 30 hours per week.””

Where I live, there are hardly any restaurant or retail employees who work more than 30 hours.

Only management works 40+ hours and it’s been that way ever since I can remember. (decades)

Of course they can, but J6P jobs are either outsourced or switched to temp/staffing agencies and contracting is no calk walk when it comes to getting clients.

As Smithers demonstrates, it is all about the art of negotiation. It takes a high social intelligence quotient to negotiate effectively.

lol

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you…

Should we all carry state-issued ID at all times, and does any and every citizen have the right to demand we show it to them?

Sounds like a police state… Is that what you want?

I have no problem with the kid not having ID on him.

Is that what you want?

No, I don’t.

What should a “neighborhood watch” person, or any one else, be allowed to demand of you as you walk down the street?

I haven’t payed much attention to the trial but my feeling is this will be a mistrial and the soap opera continues for another few years. That’s what the media wants anyway.

Spook and others are right….there should have been a charge from the get to. Come on….a person carrying no weapons got shot….there’s got to be some kind of charge for that.

We are where we are. Democrats and media have made it pretty much a race issue. Zimmerman a white man, please give me a fooking break!

There will be race riots if Zimmerman walks free but all these women jurors they will just kick the can one more time.

What should a “neighborhood watch” person, or any one else, be allowed to demand of you as you walk down the street?

That’s obvious: nothing. He is just a citizen, and I am just a citizen. Depending on the state, there might be citizen’s arrest laws on the books, but I would expect that to apply only in the case that a law had demonstrably been broken.

In this case, with the accusation just being “appearing suspicious”, those would not apply.

Of course, that would all change, and a felony would be in progress, as soon as I took a swing at him, or started banging the “neighborhood watch” person’s head on the pavement.

It’s become a race issue because it is. I know a few people who lived in Standford and they say it is one of the most racist places they have ever lived.

Come on….a person carrying no weapons got shot….there’s got to be some kind of charge for that.

If you ignore both the law and the totality of the circumstances—sure, makes sense.

the totality of the circumstances

Isn’t the totality that if Zimmerman hadn’t voluntarily pursued Treyvon- against the advice of the 911 operator- then there wouldn’t have been a death?

That seems like manslaughter to me, at the least.

Alpha:

So what does a citizen do when suspicious activity occurs? Ignore it? Let someone else be robbed, raped, or killed? Neighborhood watch is there by a reason. Besides, you know the watchmen are elected by the neighbors, right?

Ignore it?

The police say report it to them and stand back- the same advice given to Zim- which, if he had followed it, an apparently innocent teenage boy would still be alive.

Obviously, if someone is being raped or murdered, you can step in and stop it, with armed force if need be, but the crime has to be occurring, you can’t just have the suspicion it might occur.

Zim had reported his suspicions, and been told to do no more and let the police handle it. That was enough, he had done his job. The neighborhood is probably going to get its patootie sued off, I bet they wish Zim had followed the 911 operator’s advice.

Does being elected to neighborhood watch give you extra authority over fellow citizens? Suddenly you’re allowed to chase down anyone you deem suspicious, demand to know what they are doing? You just said that people didn’t have the right to do such things.

“Come on….a person carrying no weapons got shot….there’s got to be some kind of charge for that.”

Friend of Boston bomber was unarmed when shot by FBI

A Chechen man shot dead by the FBI during questioning on his links to the Boston Marathon bombers was unarmed, The Washington Post has reported.

By AFP
2:27AM BST 30 May 2013

But a law enforcement official told the Post that Todashev had lunged at the FBI agent and overturned the table, but had neither a gun nor a knife.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10088159/Friend-of-Boston-bomber-was-unarmed-when-shot-by-FBI.html -

Alpha:

The police dispatcher repeatedly asked Zimmerman where Martin was. Zimmerman could not have answered that question without following Martin.

I don’t think neighborhood watchmen have extra authority, but we shouldn’t fault them for watching. I think the neighborhood election process (while informal and inconsistent) should at least give the watchman a feeling that he is more than just a snoop.

should at least give the watchman a feeling that he is more than just a snoop.

And how many snoops and their checkpoints do I have to contend with as I walk across town to get some skittles? Or go for a jog or bike ride?

Do I have to show them all ID? What if they don’t believe my story? Can they arrest me?

No, they can’t ask for your ID or arrest you. You don’t have to talk to them if you don’t want.

You don’t have to talk to them if you don’t want.

I hope they are aware of that and respect my rights, better than Zim respected Treyvon’s right to do so. Or does running away signal ‘game on’?

‘respect my rights, better than Zim respected Treyvon’s right’

So says the fascist, racist who is all for Obama killing hundreds of children with drones.

Do I have to show them all ID? What if they don’t believe my story? Can they arrest me?

You are free to ignore him, and go about your business.

You are NOT free to jump him, punch him, knock him down, climb on top of him, and bang his head on the pavement.

See the difference?

You are NOT free to jump him, punch him, knock him down, climb on top of him, and bang his head on the pavement.

That’s the trouble with an incident like this. The dead guy can’t tell his side of the story. And the living guy was apparently well aware of what he had to say to make it sound like self-defense.

That’s the trouble with an incident like this. The dead guy can’t tell his side of the story.

True enough—but you also can’t convict the living guy over what you imagine that the dead guy might say if he were alive. The courts are supposed to accept only evidence.

And in this case, one of the best eye-witnesses was very clear that Trayvon was on top of Martin when the shot occurred.

was very clear that Trayvon was on top of Martin when the shot occurred.

That’s why the Stand Your Ground laws are often called “License to start a fight and shoot if you start losing”.

And this witness, are they perhaps someone who lives in the neighborhood that’s going to get its patootie sued off? Might make them not so impartial. (Not to mention the notorious unreliability of eyewitnesses to fast moving crimes. Google it.)

You are correct about that.

After obama and the democrats politicized this case there was no way this case could not have come to trail.

No matter how poor a case it was.

And the ramifications of a “not guilty” verdict will be immense.

All for some democrat talking points.

The DA DID “take no action” and 2 million people marched in NYC to demand “justice for Trayvon”.

Justice as a political process? That disgraceful, imo.

All for some democrat talking points.

Like making it safe for a teenager to walk down the street without getting pursued and shot by a self-appointed law officer?

Im not a lawyer, but the way I see it, law enforcement took a gamble that nobody would really care about this dead young blk male, probably with a criminal record…; so why don’t we just make this an open and shut case…

A lot of criminals are indigent(sp?) the fact that this one is dead just means one less thug we gotta keep our eyes on…

Dead blk criminals (prostitutes, drug dealers…) with no ID don’t spend time in “lost and found” because their prints are on file from previous arrests.

But if you are killed with no ID, and no criminal record and nobody cares to advocate for you…

Why should the state make a big deal about you?

Everybody needs to ask themselves this question: If you were the DA and you knew the tapes existed; would you help the Sanford PD withhold them? or work to get them release?

Personally, I would only withhold them in order to destroy them. I would not want those tapes “out there” possibly to be used by someone who wants to call in a favor on me.

The DA didn’t really have a choice; sooner or later those tapes were gonna come out.

*these assholes always get away*

except this time.

My recollection is that the police that responded originally did want to charge Zimmerman and that it was someone from the prosecutor’s office who nixed it - not because they thought that no one would care about a young black man, but because as far as they were concerned the stand your ground law meant that as long as the guy who did the shooting was capable of saying that he felt threatened, the shooting was justified under that law and nobody could do anything about it. The original problem was with the interpretation of the law. Not that racism couldn’t have been part of it, it could have been. But that it was pretty clear that no prosecutors in Florida had tried to figure out the proper interpretation of the fairly new law - and weren’t planning on it.

As for the connection between the cops and the prosecutors office, the prosecutors need the cops, but the cops need the prosecutors even more. They want the people they catch convicted. The DAs office can decide to drop the charges or plead out to a very minor charge if they decide they don’t like the case the cops bring to them. It is only very rarely that they have to bring a case they aren’t nearly certain of winning because of politics or any other reason.

In addition, there is very little good a prosecutor can do by making the cops look bad. The defense can raise reasonable doubt by showing that some evidence was collected badly or not handled properly. It is almost impossible for the prosecutor to prove that something else that supports his case would have been available if the cops hadn’t been incompetent - at least not in support of a case that can be proved beyond a reasonable doubt. You have to remember the differences in the burden of proof.

Spook, I get your point about it being a good idea for young black men to carry government ID so they have something to show if they get stopped for walking/standing/picking nose/whatever while black, but the fact that it is a good idea doesn’t mean it should be mandatory. I think a bunch of people mistook your comment for an idea for a rule, not just an illustration of what parents should tell their sons.

Gun question here:

Zimmerman appears to be left handed (signing documents, writing…)

But in the videotape interview with the detective, he demonstrates reaching for and grabbing his firearm with his right hand from a holster on the right side of his waist.

Is this because he has a right handed gun?

I asked because I assume a person should use their dominant hand for their fire arm?

What is the reason a left handed person would holster their hand gun on the right side of their body?

Holster at the waist? More likely under the armpit for concealed carry.

Addressing the “we don’t need you to do that” instruction from the dispatcher:

This is standard police CYA-speak for “you’re on your own/use your own discretion/we’ll take no responsibility here”. It does NOT mean “do not follow this person”, as many in the media would have us think.

Zimmerman has already described in the interview with the detective at the station AND in the reenactment at the scene, his use of a waist holster on his right side.

This is standard police CYA-speak for “you’re on your own/use your own discretion/we’ll take no responsibility here”.

Thank you for clearing this up Ahansen. That language always bothered me since I first heard it because it seems too vague and “paisley” for a professional to be using.

CYA indeed.

Please explain why shaming the victim is good for society….

Uh oh, is Ahansen lookin at me “sideways?”

Is she holding me accountable and responsible for what I said?

Lucky for her I have a sense of shame.

Shame is a necessary emotion for the promotion of responsibility which all adult members of society should practice in order to produce a CIVILization.

many cultures have ceremonies that designate the precise moment when a boy or girl becomes a man or woman; and therefore a responsible and accountable member of the society.

Condo prices in Toronto are not holding up nicely. Not at all. They have seen unsteady sales at reducing prices for units in the same buildings. They cannot seem to get much past 80% of the prices they were getting in Dec 2011.

And a whole flood of new condos are being finished soon.

Bill,

You’re correct in a sense. But why not work in Nevada as a 1099? You get to do the same $50K retirement and pay 0% of what’s left instead of paying 10% to CA on what’s left.

And this is yet another example of the insanity of the tax code. As a W2 cube drone, you can contribute a max of $16K a year to a 401k. Do the exact same job, get paid as a 1099, you can contribute up to $50K to a SEP.

“Merica, gotta love her.

Why would I want to work in Nevada unless I’m a ski bum? I’m from California and there are a lot more tech opportunities in certain areas, such as Silicon Valley and Orange County.

In fact, I hope to network more and then go 1099, staying in the O.C. area (as a renter) for several years. There is a positive can do attitude in Orange County. It’s a smorgasbord of opportunities.

Same with Washington…

Stanford Magazine is great. I read it.
Great legacy for your wife, btw.

“Being a middle class Californian sucks. Being an evil rich land owning Californian….not a bad way to live.”

Best observation you ever made here, dude!

Dirk
I’m so over the liberal vs. conservative labels. I’m free of all that dribble. I evaluate people by character.

Becoming a recovered Republican has made me a better person.

‘I’m so over the liberal vs. conservative labels’

Over 20 years ago I came to the conclusion that left/right, conservative/liberal were meaningless dualism’s the PTB use to keep us divided and powerless.

So he won’t win re-election?