Bits Bucket for July 5, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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A couple homes have come on the market recently around me. one house is on a corner lot where the backyard backs up to a major road. They started out at 349k for the 2500′ and now at 339k. They paid like 220k in early 2012. People are trying to take money off the table.
You can drive around this place and easily pick out the bank owned inventory. Key giveaway are dead lawns and piles of flyers on the front patios. Evidently the squatters are smarter than people realize as they have figured this out.
That’s is very true in Austin too.
I just saw a condo that was listen in May for $299 and went pending in days. So, the deal fell through because it’s back on the market, but it’s now listed at $305k.
I would like to have free money. Anyone game?
One of my favorite energy blogs is closing down - theoildrum.com. Their web side was the best place to go whenever a big event in the energy markets would hit the MSN. Back during the big Gulf oil spill there were detailed discussions on every aspect of the disaster. It will be missed.
I will miss it too. Very detailed site!
Was that one of the peak oil things? I recall many years ago when I suggested there was plenty of oil in the US, some posters here freaked out. It wasn’t that I had some inside info, just that when I was growing up in Texas, oil was found all over the place. Last time I drove though, even Electra was pumping oil like crazy, and that oil field is 80 years old.
A lot of new oil has been found, but it required fracking for its extraction.
‘A lot of new oil has been found’
It probably isn’t new oil, just newly discovered. That’s what I saw years ago. Some people would look at a piece of dirt and think, maybe there’s oil down there. They’d raise the money, drill and sometimes would find some. It was amazing how often it would work out. There’s a reason you can’t get oil rights when you buy land in Texas. Oil is potentially anywhere.
‘it required fracking for its extraction’
Imagine that, a new technology. It’s not really new, but you get the idea. Another old but new trick is going into older oil fields and using newer methods to extract oil that couldn’t be gotten before.
An oil guy told me once that the oil companies only explore far enough ahead to locate reserves for the demand they anticipate for a limited amount of time……20 years, or thereabouts. Any further exploration wastes time and money, and pushes prices down.
I mentioned once before that they keep re-fracking the well down the street from me. I get a copy of the production reports since I have mineral rights in this lease and it sure looks like fracked wells have a very fast decline after the first year or two. I wonder if all fracked wells display a similar profile? Here in Texas our bigger problem might turn out to be finding the water to boil to make electricity if this drought doesn’t break in the next few years.
Or water potable enough to drink after the frakkers get through infiltrating your ground water and collapsing all your substrate fractures.
I heard the manager of energy focused fund speak and tracked him down after to speak specifically about the Monterey Shale in CA and whether the hydrocarbons there were actually recoverable with current technologies.
His quick response was absolutely yes…at a gas price of $6 per BTU.
He went on to explain that there is oil/gas everywhere, and it’s just about the cost of extraction, and that if you took a map of the United States, and “lit up” areas with economically viable extraction locations, that relatively few parts of the US are “lit up” if the price of natural gas is $3, and that at $6, much more of the country is “lit up”, including the Monterey Shale, and that at $10, the US would look like a very well lit Christmas Tree.
It’s worth noting that in 2007, the price of natural gas was something like $7 per BTU.
charles hugh smith calls it peak cheap oil.
“Peak Cheap Oil” is more accurate, although much more subjective.
What is “cheap”? If “cheap” for Natural Gas is less than $7 per BTU, it would seem that we have a long way to go before we reach “Peak Cheap Natural Gas”.
‘Peak Cheap Oil’ is more accurate’
I just bought a used hybrid for my long drive beater. I buy gas about one third as often as before. The other day I saw a new hybrid SUV.
“Hybrid SUV”
Check out the price on one of those babies. Saw a GMC Suburban Hybrid a couple of years ago.
MSRP? Almost $70K.
I paid 3k cash for mine. It’s probably saving me $200 a month as I drive a lot.
I remember seeing a study on how long it takes you to make up the difference in cost between a hybrid vehicle, and the most applicable comparable non-hybrid through fuel savings.
This is for NEW cars though…buying a used would be very different.
The Prius was the best at about 3 years to make up the difference in cost.
The worst was the Hybrid Lexus SUV (or something like that), where the premium to get the Hybrid as opposed to Non-Hybrid was massive…the time to make up the difference in cost? 99 years.
You simply need to do the math to see if it makes sense for you and your driving habits. I don’t drive much with my car, it’s a 2010 and has about 22,500 miles on it. For me, paying a premium for a Hybrid makes no sense.
I did the math with my folks a while back, and we determined that for them, a Prius made a lot of sense, as long as you assumed gas was going to be $2.50-$3.00 or more…they love the car, and have saved a ton on fuel costs.
I am certain you mean $6 per MILLION BTU.
I’m sure you’re right (per million BTU). I’m just going shorthand for what is typically reported in the press.
A foreclosure fixer that I bicycle past daily hasn’t rented yet; too expensive at $1200/month when you can buy for $800 to $1000 per month around here…on approved credit. Two ladies bought it last spring and invested a tidy sum and plenty of sweat resulting in a really attractive place. I met them out front one afternoon, and I suggested that they sell the place as renters are really destructive, and I really hate to see a nice place and hard work go down the proverbial drain. Once the kids are back in school and winter is approaching business activity slows to a crawl, and it will sit for six months.
Thank you for trying to help put another house on the market.
So the jobs report seems to have turned staffing company investors attention away from the delay in the ObamaScare fines/penalties. My sell limit is 28% above the current price. Could take a year to get there.
I woke up very early in The morning figuring on what expenditures/investments to give up since I now have a big income cut. Well I won’t miss the $400 per week investing in my former staffing company. And after more than eleven year of investing over $1000 per month into AAZAX (the last six years $1300 per month) I will cut it back to $300. My income per month is $600, which is reinvested. And my health insurance and dental is provided, so I will eliminate $5,000 per year of my own spending on those.
My hourly was $84, figuring 50 weeks would be $168,000. I think by my elimination of those investments above, and health insurance on my own, I will not have to change my lifestyle. Can still fully invest in my 401k and IRA and their catchups, plus $300 per month to my municipal bond fund. My purchases of gold and mining stock will be financed by my staffing company stock realized gains. I think I can even continue investing in my vanguard funds outside tax deferral.
Going direct at $130k not so bad.
Going direct at $130k not so bad.
Actually it is. In flyover, this is a good salary not in OC IMO.
Okay you know my situation better than I do then. I guess you know my monthly rent on my next apartment too.
Like I wrote, I will eliminate $32,000 from my investing per year, plus $5,000 in insurance. That is $37,000.
My rent in OC is $100 more than in LA. But I get a one bedroom unit with parking in OC. IN L.A. it USA studio and no Parking.
I AM NOT in flyover country now. My salary will be $130,000. My old income was $168,000. But I eliminated $37,000. So I am out by perhaps $2,400 per year. I can adjust.
Added bonus for bila: South Coast Plaza and Fashion Island attract THE most beautiful women on the planet. Excellent eateries abound around these oases of people-watching, as, not surprisingly, do good gyms and health clubs.
Sounds as though you’re handling your new circumstances with aplomb. Hope this new chapter brings you the best kinds of enjoyment!
Most people can’t simply choose to move to Flyover and keep the same salaries and perks. My wife and I are pushing 300k and we’re certainly not rich. There are very few firms where I could make 225k in Flyover and they don’t have the same career benefits or fringe benefits as DC/NY/SF. And my wife would go down from 65k to maybe the mid 40s if she was teaching in Flyover.
Even more importantly, I never would’ve invested 3 yrs of my life to become an attorney if I wanted to live in flyover. Too much competition for too few good jobs. My firm is based in CHI and the associates there work longer doing a higher volume of lower-quality work. It’s easy to move from NYC or DC offices to anywhere you want later in your career, but going from CHI to the coast is nearly impossible. And my wife likely wouldn’t have become a teacher in flyover. She’s too smart and it’s not worth the investment. We both have parents with money and assets so it would’ve made more sense to take standard corporate jobs and just help out with the family businesses here and there.
Yes. I know what you mean. For me, my quality of living won’t suffer at my lower salary because I lived very well below my means on $168k. All I will miss seeing is $1,000 per month going into muni bonds and $20,000 per year investing in staffing company stocks. I did not spend the money obviously, nor need that additional $32k. Then $5k on top of it paid health and dental. Then I will be happy to have 3 weeks paid vacation.
If I perform remarkably, I hope for an increase after one year. If no increase in a couple of years despite my effort, I will hit the road again.
Bill, if you are having a reduction of income of $38,000 (before tax dollars) and you reduce your expenditures by $37,000 (in after tax dollars), you’re going to come out ahead.
Exactly!
Snippet from an article posted yesterday:
However, Knight Frank’s experts have said a decision by the Spanish government to grant residency to non-EU nationals who buy property in the country costing more than €500,000 would offer some support.
Looks like other countries are considering the whole “buy a property in exchange for residency” thing.
This triggered a thought for me this morning: we are moving towards a world where the only true citizenship is cash.
This triggered a thought for me this morning: we are moving towards a world where the only true citizenship is cash.
That’s how it worked in Ancient Rome, IIRC. You could buy and sell citizenship.
But residency is not the same as citizenship.
“This triggered a thought for me this morning: we are moving towards a world where the only true citizenship is cash.”
“The Sovereign Individual”
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0684832720
I have been reading on hbb about being an independant contractor and getting paid with a 1099. In my opinion many employers make this mistake and classify someone as a 1099 ( independent contractor) when in fact that individual should be classified as an employee.
Please check this definition on the link below. Your employer might be responsible for your back taxes and with holdings.
http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Employed/Independent-Contractor-(Self-Employed)-or-Employee%3F
It’s a tricky area and something small business people need to be conversant with. It’s always good to talk to a lawyer about it because if you can say you’re relying on a lawyer’s opinion it gets you off the hook for the most severe sanctions. I see this topic come up a lot on landlord message boards (e.g. MrLandlord) because property owners often do the planning, buying, and delivering of materials themselves and, in certain situations, this can make the tradesperson an employee under the law and this leads to problems with there is a dispute, a probably getting code approval, or an accident on the job.
Doesn’t matter if it is “legal”.
It’s what someone can get away with. And the way the job market is now, you can get away with a lot.
I was a 1099 for the first year at my current position. I could have narced my employer out, but I’d have been out of a job. Fortunately, my employer figured out it was cheaper to hire me, than pay both me and the management company I was working for.
The new paradigm for the US workplace is to have minimal full-time staff, and fill the holes with part-timers and 1099s. Job security for the wretched refuse? How quaint, and 20th century-like.
Welcome to the Globalized/Lucky-Duck/part-timer/1099 America. Your “worth” is totally defined by the economics. And the economics are defined by people undervaluing you, and over valuing themselves.
Department of Labor is touch in NYS.
Independent Contractors
It is vital that you understand the distinction between independent contractors and employees. This affects you and your business.
You may genuinely believe that you have hired people to perform services for you as independent contractors. You may discover that by law they are considered employees and that you are liable for unemployment insurance contributions and interest.
Whether the relationship is one of employer-employee will depend on several factors. These include how much supervision, direction and control you have over the services.
The Employer-Employee Relationship
The courts have found that no single factor or group of factors conclusively define an employer-employee relationship. Rather, all factors are reviewed to determine the degree of supervision, direction and control exercised over the services. Generally, an employer controls what will be done, i.e. the manner, means, and results.
An employer-employee relationship may exist if you:
• Choose when, where, and how they perform services
• Provide facilities, equipment, tools and supplies
• Directly supervise the services
• Set the hours of work
• Require exclusive services (An individual cannot work for your competitors while working for you.)
• Set the rate of pay
• Require attendance at meetings and/or training sessions
• Ask for oral or written reports
• Reserve the right to review and approve the work product
• Evaluate job performance
• Require prior permission for absences
• Have the right to hire and fire
How an individual is compensated is another indicator of worker status. Employees typically are paid a salary, an hourly rate of pay or a draw against future commissions with no requirement for repayment of unearned commissions.
Employees may also receive certain fringe benefits, including an allowance or reimbursement for business or travel expenses.
The nature of the services performed is also key to deciding if a worker is an employee or an independent contractor.
Unskilled or casual workers are usually employees because their labor is often supervised. However, even professionals such as doctors and lawyers, who have much freedom to perform their duties, may be employees if they are subject to significant control.
The courts have also found that workers may be employees and that an employment relationship may exist if the employer controls important aspects of the services performed, other than results and means.
For example, a referral agency usually does not directly supervise the individuals it refers for assignments. It could be their employer, however, if it controls such important aspects of the services as:
• Client contact
• Billing and collection from clients
• The individual’s wages
http://www.labor.ny.gov/ui/dande/ic.shtm
30 miles northwest of Gunnison, where the bear and elk play:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20130704_112134_645-AZoy5Iw3.jpg
Where’s the Lego store?
Totally off topic, but goon, what’s your take on bear spray? Family and I have gone day hiking nearly every year in national park lands–glacier, rocky mountain, yellowstone, etc and never used it. We’re going back to the Tetons and Yellowstone this year and all of the NPS sites are recommending bear spray. Wasn’t the case up in Glacier last year and that place is infested with bears.
Bear bangers
Some people say you should wear bells, and carry pepper spray.
Others say to know what kind of bears are in your vicinity, be examining their crap.
-Black bear crap is small, and has fragments of nuts and berries.
-Grizzly bear crap is larger, has little bells in it, and smells like pepper.
Just remember……you don’t have to outrun a grizzly. You just have to outrun the slowest person in your group.
Bear Sprayer = Springfield Armory M1A with a 20 round clip.
Never carried bear spray. But we don’t travel in grizzly territory, it’s black bears only down here. In late summer and early fall when the bears are fattening for hibernation, we carry a .357 Magnum in the backcountry.
We saw this bear (brown blob at photo center) within 50 feet of the trail Wednesday evening, not far after passing a cow carcass that must have attracted its attention.
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20130703_185052_969-G8JkmnaK.jpg
A friend of mine went to school in Alaska and for a time was a guide. He packed what he described as tear gas for bears–he said you better get the wind right if you need to throw it, or you’re screwed–the stuff will totally incapacitate a human (I’m assuming this is what you call “bear spray”). He never said that he used the tear gas, and was skeptical that it would work based on conversations that he had with others.
He also packed a .45 Magnum.
Totally off topic, but goon, what’s your take on bear spray?
Really should let “ahansen” weigh in here.
thanks for the comments, I was always under the impression that it was iffy at best, you definitely want to avoid grizzly territory at certain times of the year. We’re travelling in happy bear season, and truthfully, if we peeve off a grizzly I’m not sure my shpritz can is going to save the day anyway…
My under arms repel both bears and mosquitoes.
after a shower, I just use one of my socks on a stick.
spook
I assume you clean up for the intimate times with your wife. Didn’t you guys just have your caboose (last child)?
Where did you settle after your service (thank you), and did you buy a place?
IIRC you’re in the south,a place of amazing natural beauty.
Think you’re referring Stepn2me, inch. Spook has about 50 IQ points on that guy, and no military affiliations.
Stevie,
While it’s absolutely important to be aware of your surroundings, nothing will undo the magic of being out in the wild faster than undue paranoia. The chances of you being involved in an “interface” are slim-to-vanishing, but if in doubt, talk to the local rangers and follow their advice. Use common sense, keep your eyes open, and have fun!
Here are a few tips, but as in all things, YMMV:
-If you’re backpacking in bear country, do so in loud noisy groups and keep your eyes on the trail for scat markings. If it’s fresh, turn around. If you see any signs of recent bear activity (tree markings, soil disruption, fresh kills of any sort, turn around. Be aware that if you DO turn around, the bear may be following you. Stay in a group and chatter or sing until you’re convince you’ve left its territory.
-If you’re backpacking and plan to set up camp, someone in the group should probably carry a .357 in case you get raided during the night, but it’s a lot of weight, and if you’ve stashed your provisions mindfully, your chances of an encounter are minimal.
-If bears have been reported as a nuisance in the area, pepper spray might help assuage your paranoia. But for it to be of any use, you’ll have to keep the canister clipped to your breast strap — which gets to be a huge pain. And there’s evidence that unless you score a direct hit to the eyes (Hint: you don’t want to get that close), its effect on an angry grizzly will be minimal.
Keep in mind also that bear spray is simply mace; there’s a good chance the wind or circumstances will conspire to compound your problems if you try to use it, so if you’re going to carry, practice beforehand so you know what to expect. (At $45/3 second shot, it ain’t cheap.)
In black bear country (CA, CO, AZ, OR), hike with the family dog(s) and stay on the trails and out of dense foliage or shrubbery. Typically, black bears will twist themselves into knots to avoid any contact with human beings, but if you do find yourself confronting an aggressive one, you’re going to have to fight back with all you’ve got because unlike grizzlies — who will often fake-charge or swat you around to make their point — the black bear is charging you because it’s trying to kill you.
Don’t run, don’t try to climb a tree (they’re faster than you can imagine, and excellent climbers). Make yourself big by spreading your arms and roaring, and if it’s undeterred cover your face and get your thumbs ready to go for its eyes. (It will be coming for yours.)
-Follow all the ranger’s advisories scrupulously and be sure to let them know where you plan to be hiking/camping.
Finally, (and this is merely anecdotal advice, but it’s based on my personal observations), if you have small blonde people (especially females) in your party, keep in mind that they tend to get singled out as (perceived) easier prey.
For an extended discussion on this topic, you can go to reddit and seach for “I was mauled by a bear, fought it off, and drove four miles down a mountain with my face hanging off.” It’s an uproarious conversation about a singularly annoying misadventure.
All this said, what happened to me was a one-off fluke. Go. Enjoy the backcountry with your family; they’ll always love you for it. (I know I sure have.)
Thanks for the great advice Ahansen, but what if its raining and its dark, and the bear looks suspicious; like he’s up to no good, and on drugs or something?
I ask because we’ve had a lot of break-ins lately in our neighborhood.
Is it wearing a hoodie?
Simi Valley Fireworks mishap-
We left the event early after checking it out.
Not our flavor. Over eaters, swap meet
type booth selling stuff, food stands, and loud
unimpressive rock music.
We went home, swam, and then parked a mile or two away at 9:00PM. Saw lots of smoke, a 20 second fireworks show, and then got in the traffic jam to get home. Had no idea what happened until this morning.
The Rotary Club sponsored the event with Milgard Windows w/others, and Park & Rec. Attorneys will be out in force today.
fireworks-company-tells-people-injured-in-simi
to contact Rotary Club
http://www.vcstar.com/news/2013/jul/05/fireworks-company-tells-people-injured-in-simi/?partner=RSS
Glad you missed the up-close/personal view.
We watched our fireworks display from some distance off as well…completely uneventful, except the horrendous traffic trying to get away after it was all said and done.
GAAAAA! Glad you survived it. The firework accident sounds awful too….
Happy belated INDEPENDENCE DAY!!! (Can I say that?). Anyway, please do what you can to preserve our liberty and our constitution.
Independence Day with all that red, white and blue patriotic symbolism always reminds me of a politician standing giving their speech (lying), with the U.S. flag as a backdrop.
It always reminded me of my duty as a citizen to resist tyranny. Funny how two different people can approach the same job in such different ways.
Uncle Fed
Our citizenship is worth tp.
Someone here once said
America is now a game, not
a country.
I have to agree.
I do honor and appreciate our
military. Because of all those brave
souls we sleep safe at night.
Our citizenship is worth tp.
So… you’re saying you’d exchange yours for a four-roll pack, then? Maybe a twelve-roll pack?
Please help me understand the exchange rate…