Bits Bucket for July 15, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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In the golden state its getting very difficult to build your own home. Fees, permits, regulation, cost of material, access to land all play a factor. Just like everything else that all this favors corporations and creates more monopolies. You are basically at the mercy of the banks to get a loan if you want a house here.
A lot of things can go wrong over the course of a 30 year loan. Look at any amortization table and most of the interest on the loan is front loaded.
On avg a person moves every 7 years, After 7 years how much principal have you paid down into 30 year? You heard it here first, basically nothing, a very small percentage. And you wonder why the banks have the nicest buildings in downtown.
With 4.4 MILLION excess, empty and defaulted houses in CA, there is no need to build more.
Are they available for me to buy? Me want one, cheap, like HA’s rental apartment next to the rail lines and the methadone clinic -
And sadly you don’t know the difference between “cheap” and costly.
“On avg a person moves every 7 years, After 7 years how much principal have you paid down into 30 year? You heard it here first, basically nothing, a very small percentage.”
And then there’s the transaction costs involved in selling and then buying another place. Tough to get ahead when the lion’s share of your income goes out the door as commissions, fees and expenses.
In other countries the transaction costs are nowhere nearly as high. I’ve met Europeans who moved to the states and they were utterly shocked at the costs. Not only did the “estate agents” (AKA realtors) commission percentages blow them away, but they found all of the closing costs to be outrageous.
I recall one of the Euro transplants once remarked, in the context of the exhorbitant closing costs: Do Americans actually make anything, or does everyone here earn a living by “taking a cut”?
The USA economy is nothing but pimps, junkies, and drug dealers.
BINGO
Owning your own home, and a thirty year mortgage made sense 30 years ago.
In today’s environment? No so much.
“Do Americans actually make anything, or does everyone here earn a living by “taking a cut”?”
Is this a trick question?
in other countries the transaction costs are nowhere nearly as high. I’ve met Europeans who moved to the states and they were utterly shocked at the costs. Not only did the “estate agents” (AKA realtors) commission percentages blow them away, but they found all of the closing costs to be outrageous.
Housing is a complete ripoff at current massively inflated asking prices.
6% for the realwhore- plus stamps etc
You are basically at the mercy of the banks to get a loan if you want a house here.
As opposed to?
Remember the “fog a mirror” loans?
They still came from banks.
Yes and no. The banks just passed them on to the next sucker in the form of MBSs.
Anyway, I think that the “complaint” now is that lenders want to see good credit, low debt and rock hard proof of income. You know, the way it’s supposed to be.
Debt is slavery.
Debt is a common tool that allows people to utilize expected future income now. It is inherently risky, and the risk was grossly underestimated by many people in recent history.
Slavery is much more serious.
For one thing, you couldn’t be emancipated via a BK.
Debt is slavery. Calling it a tool is junkie speak.
So you have never taken out a loan Blue Skye? How about when you bought your house? For education? No credit cards?
As yet, no one has answered my assertion that renters are “serfs” too. Think you’re not a serf to your rent? Then don’t pay it. I look forward to your report.
Part of the issue with the ‘debt is slavery’ thing is it seems like an attempt to shut down conversation on the topic. Debt is dangerous, and educating people will make them more cautious. Spouting that nonsense phrase is the equivalent to the parenting tactic of “I don’t have to worry about my daughter and teen pregnancy. I told her premarital sex is icky.”
debt = barter
Yes, I have had mortgages and debt to my eyeballs. I’m a reformed debt junkie. The first loan I took out was back in the ’60s. I’ve had plenty of experiences with the relentlessness of debt service when the unexpected happens in life. I’ve experienced the reduction in standard of living resulting from the paying of interest. I’ve experienced the fright of the looming payments through periods of unexpected unemployment. I rebelled. I’ve been debt free now for a decade and the difference in quality of life is amazing. I am ready to retire and worry free while my peers are locked in for the foreseeable future. Slavery.
I’ve been saying “debt is slavery” here since 2006. I’ve expressed it different ways. My point is that you will end up with a lot more if you do not promise to pay over the years for something you absolutely must have right away. Debt adds a tremendous drag. Stop buying things you cannot pay for. That is freedom.
Renting is a way to drastically reduce your living expenses and eliminate financial worries. A renter can decide to throw their stuff in a locker and go someplace glamorous for a while. A renter doesn’t have to buy a truckload of things necessary to fight the war against the deterioration (depreciation) of a massive hungry house. To say that this freedom is actually serfdom is Orwellian.
Personally I’ve had four loans and all of them have gone well. It did not come close to feeling like slavery and help me meet my goals. But I was responsible with it. I don’t see myself ever having another loan, but I would rather discuss the merits and risks of debt rather than dismissing the concept altogether. You did mention that you own your house. Did you purchase it outright or was it financed?
A renter doesn’t have to buy a truckload of things necessary to fight the war against the deterioration (depreciation) of a massive hungry house
Of course, the owner of a large boat has his hands full with maintenance issues. Nothing deteriorates like a house literally on the water.
My cabin cruiser does not require so much maintenance as a small lawn, and everything I have to perform that maintenance fits in a 5 gallon pail. It’s not like I’m breaking things on a regular basis. Keeping the beer cold is the major effort.
Al, I’m not in debt. I don’t use debt to buy things.
You don’t now, but you did. Did you get rid of everything you bought with debt? I don’t need debt anymore, but it did serve my purposes in the day. I’d suggest you tell people about the dangers of debt instead of “debt is slavery.” See my analogy above.
Part of the issue with the ‘debt is slavery’ thing is it seems like an attempt to shut down conversation on the topic.
Oh really…. Is that so AlWog.
And your suggestion that debt is a tool is precisely that…. A way to bury the issue of price To hell with the price… to hell with the value of a dollar(which you asshats know nothing of and demonstrate so every day on this blog).
But here’s a bulletin for you liars, junkies and flunkies….. We’re going to be here everyday, exposing your BS.
It’s not like I’m breaking things on a regular basis.
Anyone who has ever owned a boat knows it’s not just what you break that you have to maintain. You’ve gotta scrape the barnacles and algae, scrub the mold and mildew, sand off the rust, repaint this, replace the canvas on that…
To say that a cruiser on the water is low maintenance is absurd.
Alpha , you are reading too many high sea adventure novels maybe. There are no barnacles. They live in the ocean. There is no mildew or mold, we don’t keep bread that long. Especially there is no rust, everything is aluminum. Sure, I wash down the topside more often than most people wash their car, but scraping? LOL.
Nice try, but you are not a boater.
Nice try, but you are not a boater.
+1. What’s your hull made of, btw, Blue?
alpha seems to think all boats are still made of wood…
Nice try, but you are not a boater.
Alpha is a boaster and a liar. A boater? Not so much.
Boats require more maintenance than houses, unless we’re talking about a canoe.
Anyone who denies that doesn’t know what they are talking about, or has never had a boat.
My $40k bass boat costs more to maintain than my house?
You really are a delusional liar.
You are basically at the mercy of the banks to get a loan if you want a house here.
Or you could live within or below your means and save up and pay cash.
It might take you 10 years or so but doable. You can’t have a low pay job of course. If you’re part of a couple better yet. Bank one income and live off the other.
We first learned about a month ago that Glee’s Jane Lynch (Sue) and her wife of three years, Dr. Lara Embry, were headed for divorce. Now it’s official. People is reporting that Jane officially filed for divorce on Friday, July 12.
The magazine reports that Jane and Lara actually separated as early as February 2, 2013. It also reveals that Jane filed with the Los Angeles Superior Court, citing irreconcilable differences. She’s also seeking to terminate the court’s jurisdiction to award Lara spousal support.
If one of them needs to buy a new house, apparently there are 4.4 million to pick from.
She’s also seeking to terminate the court’s jurisdiction to award Lara spousal support.
Hmmm… the divorce courts tend to favor the wife, awarding her all sorts of claims on her ex-husband’s income. So who to they favor when there are two wives divorcing each other? Poor divorce court judges, just when things got easy for them, now its complicated again.
There is always one that wears the pants in a relationship.
It depends on who wears the strap on…
Here’s what we know and the media isn’t saying;
-Housing Demand is at 16 year lows, and falling
-Housing prices are massively inflated at 2004 level prices
-25 MILLION excess, defaulted or empty houses still need to be deposed.
-An additional 35 MILLION houses will be vacated over the next 15 years. This process has already begun.
-An estimated 60 MILLION borrowers paid massively inflated prices for housing from 2000-current. They will never recover the lost money.
I agree with everything here except the exact figures. And I don’t think the exact figures are as important as the general idea anyway. Whether it’s 15 million empty houses or 25 million empty houses, it really doesn’t matter in the big picture. The U.S. just isn’t going to have endogenous population growth. And to the degree people are having children, a higher % than ever before are from the underclass or the fundamentalist/Mormon religious groups. Does not bode well for increased or stabilized prices based on good home maintenance, high paying jobs, social responsibility, or functional families needing long term single family homes.
You have the trend right, let’s not argue about whether it’s 25 mil empty homes or not, this combativeness is why people tune out from the message.
HA likes to assume that the roughly 80 million people who are under the age of 20 are going to stop aging and/or live at their parents house forever.
He also likes to assume that people will stop having kids (which will in part replace boomers).
And he’s also assuming that all 130MM homes that exist today are going to last forever (and not require replacement).
I agree that boomers are aging. I disagree with the logic that leaves you with 10s of millions of empty homes.
It seems our blog liar “Rental Watch” aka “RW” pimps NAR lies all over the internet…. Imagine that.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/07/housing-affordability-index-is-still-worthless/
He’s as big a shill as housing has ever seen, and a well-practiced liar.
Much like winning the lottery, the different in outcome of wining 50 or 75 million is meaningless…..
Most importantly, the words aren’t for you or the rest. Use the extension please.
“Housing Demand Continues To Sink In California”
http://picpaste.com/pics/8bea9437a62db7bb3de923643f0ee876.1373858653.png
There is plenty of unmet demand. Just not at prices those who need housing cannot afford.
Which is another way of saying;
“Why buy when you can rent for half the monthly cost?”
Succesful Sacramento flip. Sacramento market went crazy in the spring, rebounded too fast IMHO.
5317 T St, Sacramento, CA 95819
06/05/2013 Sold $420,000
03/10/2013 Listed for sale $425,000
08/07/2012 Sold $223,500
10/11/2011 Foreclosed to lender $270,000
02/01/1999 Sold $146,00
And this will be another default within 18 months.
Ooh, you see that? The big negotiator got $5k off the list price!
Just how much information does Uncle Sam share with its intelligence contractors?
Snowden has enough information to cause US government worst damage in history, journalist says
Published July 15, 2013
FoxNews.com
National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden possesses enough information to cause more damage to the United States government than “anyone else has ever had in the history” of the country, according to the journalist who first reported the former contractor’s leaked documents.
Glenn Greenwald, a columnist for The Guardian newspaper who first reported on the intelligence leaks, told Argentinian newspaper La Nacion that the U.S. government should exercise extreme care with Snowden because he has the potential to do further damage to the country.
“But that’s not his goal,” Greenwald told the newspaper. “His objective is to expose software that people around the world use without knowing what they are exposing themselves to, without consciously agreeing to surrender their rights to privacy. He has a huge number of documents that would be very harmful to the U.S. government if they were made public.”
…
Snowden has enough information to cause US government worst damage in history, journalist says
You mean it’s possible for the rest of the world to hate us even more?
Quite frankly I have never sought to be popular but rather good, right, etc… It seems to me it’s a big issue mostly with the left whether the US is popular globally. Considering some of the other countries in the world it would not a good thing if some of those people did like us. Despite what you see in the news most the world still likes and respects the US. I used travel a lot in Europe. Most Europeans seemed very grateful that the US saved the world three time in the last century - WWI, WWII and the cold war.
contractors = invisible hand of the free market.
if you hate contractors you hate capitalism.
are you some kind of commie?
All of it.
From WTOP.com (major radio station)
Monday - 7/15/2013, 6:53am ET
WASHINGTON - More and more retailers are tracking the movements of their customers when they are inside stores.
Nordstrom has tested technology that tracks customers using the Wi-Fi signals from their smartphones. The retailer wanted to know buying habits and see how many repeat customers it has.
But Nordstrom received some complaints and stopped the program earlier this year.
Other retailers are moving ahead with tracking customers in their stores, and in offering customers in-store deals, The New York Times reports.
One tech firm called Retail Next can even pinpoint within a 10-foot radius where a shopper is in the store.
————–
As long as the store is required inform me that they are going to track my phone, I’m totally in favor of this. People will either put their phone in a Faraday cage or simply not go into the store. Either choice will render the software effectively useless.
People who like to be tracked would have already signed up for one of 2836 rewards cards and programs.
Or they could, you know, just live their public life not tethered to a telephone….
LOL! And they could cancel their Facebook account too.
Sales people can see you and people are bothered by mobile phone tracking? The paranoids are alive and well.
I suspect the tracking is partly an anti shop lifting effort which lower costs and hence prices for everyone.
The ones that have top secret clearance get tremendous amounts. The same as an active duty military person doing their job would get. And the contractors outnumber the active duty people by “alot” (sic).
There are millions of private contractors that have top secret clearances (the highest level you can get). They are paid a lot, it’s easy for contractors to land a job paying $100/hr if they have top secret. Just ask BiLA. That’s actually the low end, the managers make more.
They took the sign down in the coffee room that said the coffee was for Lockheed Martin employees only. I wonder if some of the other contractor employees complained that it was elitist (we have employees of 10+ different contractors in our building).
Mondays and Fridays are very quiet now since furloughs started…
Do contractors in your office regular hop from one contractor to another? Poaching is so commonplace in everything I see. The company names change, but it’s the same guys doing the work. E.g. Contractor ABC loses its incumbent contract, contractor DEF takes over using 2/3 to 3/4 of the same guys.
On big contracts, as you say there are many. Guys will move up the contractor food chain by leaving a small subcontractor and signing on with a biggie once they’re able. Snowden did this. I assume this is what BiLA did, too.
Some of the hops are staying as an employee of the same contractor, but bouncing to a different government agency. And regarding a new contractor taking on most of the incumbent’s employees, that usually what happens.
It’s all quite a swirl, with the Big Players and their countless veteran-owned, woman-owned, minority-owned, etc type subs.
From a management / human resources perspective, it is very inefficient. This is a relatively small contract, but split between employees of the prime and two subs, it means three different timekeeping systems, three different payroll systems, three different sets of benefits. In addition to team leads for teams as distinguished by job function, we have team leads for each sub, as employees of the prime and two subs are spread across multiple job functions.
We recently went to bat against a major contractor that formed a joint venture with a “native alaskan owned corporation” so that they could get a preference on a contractor. The whole thing was hilarious. My screen name on here referred to it before, but basically they “joint venture” had no relevant experience (obviously) and the PPQs submitted with the proposal all referred to work done by the big contractor, nothing done by the “alaska native owned corporation”. The whole thing was a cluster. They lost and we won in the end. The costs of the protest get (partially) reimbursed by the government, so yet another wise use of taxpayer money.
And yeah, since the joint venture was a sham and didn’t actually have any employees yet, their plan for taking over the contract was just to use the prescribed transition period to try to hire on as many of the incumbent (our client)’s employees as possible. But they obviously wouldn’t be able to hire on the senior management, so there would be no one really knowledgable supervising the contract. One of the big things in a proposal is telling the gov’t who your key people are and what their resume/experience is. This was totally lacking from their proposal but they still won because they were a joint venture that had small business status plus the native american angle. ROFL.
I believe that government relaxed its gift rules to something like $30/year/company; I believe it was precisely to allow contractors to provide coffee and possibly box lunch to the federal workers when they visit. Somebody in the gov recognized that it’s rude and disheartening for everyone else to have coffee and the fed employees have to sit there with nothing. And really, a Fed isn’t going to be “influenced” to award a contract to a particular company just on 4-5 cups of mid-grade coffee. So the sign is no longer necessary.
(This generally applies to break-room quality coffee when the feds visit corporate office buildings, not to restaurants and Sbux. When they go out to eat, feds pay their own way and are reimbursed per diem later.)
Just having the clearance doesn’t necessarily mean you have access to tremedous amounts of information, unless “need to know” has been done away with.
I think the Global War on Terror did away with need to know.
I mean that they have the same access that active duty military has for their respective jobs. Meaning snowden’s cubicle could be right next to a lieutenant or a full time NSA employee. He and they would have the same responsibilities and access, but he gets paid much more and doesn’t have the same supervision, training, or incentives.
Interesting how Snowden can’t fly out of Russia with entering “American controlled” airspace. One would think that our European friends would be somewhat sympathetic to him, but apparently we have them, and everyone else bordering Russia, except maybe China, completely whipped. Though I wonder, are there no direct flights from China to a friendly LatAm nation? I’m pretty sure the Mexicans wouldn’t turn him to the Americans on his way to South America.
I can’t believe no one can smuggle that guy on a flight somewhere.
You wouldn’t be informed if they had.
“I can’t believe no one can smuggle that guy on a flight somewhere.”
I’m waiting for Putin to discuss a swap for Viktor Bout.
You have it backwards. The real question is, how much intelligence do the contractors actually share with government.
Sure seems like a good position for a future Wall Street employee. You could get some great insider info if you could tap anyone you pleased.
Bad news is good news on Wall Street, and vice versa, as a worsening real economy extends the expected time until QE3 withdrawal.
US Stock Futures Gain Ground Ahead of Retail Sales Data
Wall Street Journal - 8 minutes ago
NEW YORK–U.S. stock futures gained ground ahead of retail sales data as upbeat data out of China helped the market extend its run to fresh highs.
…
============================================================
Retail Sales in US Increased Less Than Forecast in June
Bloomberg - 24 minutes ago
Retail sales rose less than projected in June as demand cooled at building materials outlets and restaurants, underscoring a second-quarter slowdown in the U.S.
…
“Bad news is good news on Wall Street …”
The news is decided by whatever the spinmasters decide the news should be. If they want the news to be good then it becomes good. If they want it to be bad then it becomes bad.
If Wall Street flourishes by buying low and selling high then somebody else has to be selling high and buying low.
This “somebody else” are the schmucks that buy into what the spinmasters are selling.
Make that “somebody else has to be buying high and selling low”.
If Wall Street continually makes a new product (and sometimes they do) then they would not have to replenish their stock of wares by buying product that has already been sold.
But for the most part Wall Streeters do not produce new products of what they sell (i.e. shares of companies) so that means they must replenish their wares by buying up what has already been sold.
To profit from this they need to buy at a lower price than than the price that it will be sol, which means they need to convince sellers to unload to them at low prices so as they can resell to these sellers again at higher prices.
In order to convince sellers to unload at low prices they first must convince sellers that the low prices are justifiably low, and they do this by spinning the news. And the reverse is true: To convince buyers to buy the spinmasters must spin the news.
Suck ‘em in with good news, shake ‘em out with bad news. Rinse, repeat.
Mark Twain said something about people wo do not read newspapers are uninformed and people who do read newspapers are misinformed.
True when Twain said it, true today.
also true for tv. it’s all entertainment for whoever the target audience is. and i’m now convinced that ALL media is geared towards working people into a lather, so that there’s an attentive consumer ready to soak up the advertising served up.
I’ve worked in mass media and yes, yes it is.
Only a fool would think otherwise, but we seem to have no shortage of them.
The news is decided by whatever the spinmasters decide the news should be. If they want the news to be good then it becomes good. If they want it to be bad then it becomes bad.
I think someone once named that the “Ministry of Truth.” Now, if I could only remember who said that….hmmm…who could it be….
The clock is Tic, tic, tic, ticking down folks…
Economists Across Wall Street Are Axing Their Forecasts For US Growth
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/economists-cut-q2-gdp-forecasts-2013-7#ixzz2Z8H8KLnr
—————-
Richard Fisher says stupid is as stupid does …
Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher turns up the volume on bond-buying warnings
Fisher has repeatedly said the Fed’s current quantitative easing program, known as QE3, has done little to boost the economy and could do it harm. and last month, he suggested that the Fed start paring down its $85-billion-a-month bond buying starting with mortgage-backed securities.
http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews.com/2013/06/dallas-feds-richard-fisher-turns-up-the-volume-on-bond-buying-warnings.html/
Are interest rates still headed higher from here?
EARNINGS
July 14, 2013, 3:27 p.m. ET
Bank Makes Case for Higher Short-Term Rates
J.P. Morgan Cites a Potential $2 Billion Gain in Earnings
By DAVID BENOIT
CONNECT
With banks’ second-quarter earnings season getting into full gear this week, investors will focus on the impact of the jump in long-term interest rates caused by the Federal Reserve’s potential pullback on economic stimulus.
Banks have been saying for several quarters they need higher interest rates.
…
So far, most MSM financial writers (and Trulia) have completely missed the integral connection between interest rates and home purchase budget limits. In short, higher rates = LOWER DEMAND.
P.S. The Fed has been saying that QE3 withdrawal is tied to lower unemployment for months already, so last Thursday’s statement to that effect was not news, except perhaps to this reporter.
Posted July 13, 2013 - 7:12pm
Rising interest rates cast shadow over valley’s housing market
SAMANTHA CLEMENS/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
News houses are constructed by builder Lennar Homes in the Mountains Edge subdivision Monday, June 17, 2013. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday indicates for the first time in seven years, most U.S. homebuilders are optimistic about home sales.
By JENNIFER ROBISON
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Forget rising home prices.
These days, home buyers are obsessing over higher interest rates.
So much so that rising rates have catapulted past price gains as the No. 1 worry among consumers, according to a June survey by real estate website Trulia. And 56 percent of buyers told Trulia that they would rethink buying if rates hit 6 percent.
Rates remain well below 6 percent, and industry observers say that’ll be the case for the next few months to a year. But as rates creep up, buying patterns could change.
Some consumers will abandon the market.
Others will decide to buy sooner.
Either way, builders and real estate brokers are paying close attention, already strategizing on how to handle spikes.
“Absolutely, we’re watching rates. You have to monitor anything that affects the buyer’s ability to qualify for a home,” said Robb Beville, president of Las Vegas-based Harmony Homes. “If it starts to affect our sales, we’ll react to it.”
FIXED MORTGAGES JUMP
If rates haven’t affected sales yet, it’s only because increases are recent. Rates started ticking up in early May, and jumped noticeably in June after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the agency might phase out federal bond buys that kept rates low. Bernanke reversed course a bit Thursday, saying bond purchases will continue as long as unemployment stays high. Still, the average rate on a fixed, 30-year mortgage jumped to 4.68 percent the first week in July, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That was up from 3.35 percent in May, and the highest average since mid-2011. That means bigger payments: The monthly installment on a $175,000 loan is $771 at 3.35 percent, but $906 at 4.68 percent.
It’s hard to say just how higher rates will affect local sales. On one side, they can curb closings: With bigger monthly payments, fewer buyers qualify for a loan, said Nat Hodgson, executive director of the Southern Nevada Home Builders Association. Numbers from the association show that every $1,000 increase in the cost of buying prices 1,400 local households out of the market. That hits entry-level and first-time buyers the hardest, because they’re particularly payment-conscious, Beville said. Tacking just $10 or $20 onto a payment can price out some first-timers.
Moreover, fewer people may try to buy if they think pricier loans will keep them from qualifying. Loan applications have stumbled for four weeks straight, including a 4 percent drop in the week that ended July 5, and an 11.7 percent decrease a week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said. Loan applications are down about a third from July 2012.
…
Rate spike silver lining: Increased subprime lending to make up for lost volume.
Interest rate increases may have silver lining
Teke Wiggin Staff Writer
share this article
Jul 15, 2013
Though a recent surge in interest rates may dissuade some consumers from buying homes, the development also could have a silver lining for the real estate market: making mortgages available to more people.
With the recent spike in interest rates, refinances have plummeted. In the last week of May, shortly after Fed officials hinted that the Fed may scale back its stimulus program later this year, refinance applications dropped to their lowest level since November of 2011, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported.
With the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage continuing to push higher, they have trended lower since then.
That’s chipping away at banks’ profits. So to make for the lost revenue, some experts say, banks may loosen their clutch on credit and extend it to a larger swath of borrowers.
“Because refi activity is down, you have a little more room to do business with people who don’t have an 800 credit score.” said Zillow Senior Economist Svenja Gudell.
…
Wow. Just…Wow.
Are interest rates still headed higher from here?
I suspect that the current rise in rates was a head fake, and that as house sales shrivel up this summer that the Fed will open the spigot wide and snap up MBSs by the bushel.
You make them sound so scheming.
They’re Banksters … of course they’re scheming.
The looming threat to the housing recovery
Have the financial markets been taking too many painkillers?
In January, an American family who wanted to buy a median home would have paid $170,600, according to the National Association of Realtors. (There are seasonal factors making winter purchases cheaper). Assume they borrowed 80% of the price at prevailing mortgage rates then, which according to the Fed were 3.4%, they would have faced an annual interest cost of about $4,600.
Today, a family hoping to buy a median home will pay $208,000, and 4.6% interest. Annual interest on an 80% mortgage: $7,600.
In other words, the effective cost of buying the median home in the U.S., when measured in terms of the actual cost of the mortgage per month or year, has risen by more than 50% in just a few months.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-looming-threat-to-the-housing-recovery-2013-07-12
The article failed to explain how the median home in the US went from $170.6k in January to $208k in July, the date of the article.
This rise in the median price in the article is approximately 22%. Something is missing here.
When isolated for the change in interest from 3.4% to 4.6% (80% of 170.6k, or $136,080 amortized over 30 years) the change in the first year’s interest is approximately 35%.
For crissakes Old Barbarba…… you need to be schooled on median again?
The rich are still buying $1 million 500^2 ft apartments in NYC.
Are trashed forclosure prices included in calculating the median? The hedge funds and other cash may have finished snapping up the ultra low end last winter, fixed them and flipped them higher for the spring selling season. That would push the median up a little.
The article doesn’t address that, Oxide.
The piece mashed together two factors, interest rates and median housing costs, without elaborating on what data comprised the median nor addressing why it rose 22% from January to July.
Are trashed resale prices included in calculating the median?
Yes.
Trying to understand WHY prices were galloping upwards during the first bubble led me to this blog.
Looking behind the curtain has been a lot like looking at a sausage factory.
Of the Upton Sinclair kind?
How dare you mention that damn commie!
Why, next, you’ll be telling us about Alexander Fleming and Edward Jenner and Henry Ford.
(points to anyone who knows what they have in common)
Masons.
That’s an insult to sausage factories!
I wonder if an unintended consequence of Bernanke cheap money has been a reluctance of banks to lend (broker) large volumes into the real estate market with skinny margins.
How could you securitize a pack of skinny margins to begin with?
How could they factor in a risk premium with such low rates?
And remember….Housing is always a loss. Houses depreciate and the losses to depreciation are magnified by the fact that they cannot be written off as a loss on your tax return.
BTW…. as I said all along that we’re driving the resale housing market into the dirt.
And our competitors in our weakest markets in southern coastal states? They are the market. New housing everywhere at prices less than resale.
Enjoy
HA, I’m driving all the way across the “southern coastal state” of SC this week, 4.5 hours from Greenville through Columbia to Myrtle Beach.
I’d like to stop along the way and check out some of your new homes, can you list a few of your neighborhoods in SC so I can do that?
Yeah but you’re from “the west coast”…. right? That’s what you said last week.
You lying realtor.
There are new houses going up everywhere around here. I just noticed another development on my way to work this morning. It was hidden by the wall from the freeway before, but now the tops of the houses are starting to show. I think they are attached, single-story townhomes. The type where the attachment occurs at the garages. Best way to pack people in.
Observation in the local market in Austin:
Some seem to have rushed to list their overpriced homes and get the most of it while they can. Similarly, many buyers are trying to buy ASAP before rates are even higher.
This has translated into even more expensive listings and properties being under contract within days.
As one of our more prolific west coast writers stated;
“Get what you can get for your house in Austin now because it’s going to be much less later for decades to come.”
This has translated into even more expensive listings and properties being under contract within days.
I can tell you that sales in my nabe went off a cliff when interest rates went up.
Wall Street Journal - More Restaurants Replace Full-Timers With Part-Timers:
“For the entire U.S. workforce, employers have added far more part-time employees in 2013 — averaging 93,000 a month, seasonally adjusted — than full-time workers, which have averaged 22,000.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324694904578601922653718606.html
We’re there ever that many full time employees in the food service biz?
I don’t thinks so.
So we’re being told that Lucky Duckies won’t get full time hours because of Obamacare. Well, they weren’t getting 40 hours a week anyway to begin with. Which is one of the reasons why many either have 3 jobs or get SNAP (or both).
The majority of restaurant employees have always been part time.
At least for the last 40 years that I know of. (my first W2 was fast food)
Only the managers work full time and they work 50+ hours.
For the line workers, the hours are also irregular as hell and almost never the same 2 weeks in a row.
Most retail is the same with the only difference being asst mgrs also work full time.
And people wonder why they have bad attitude?
Burn, baby, burn:
“Wildfire trends in the West are clear: there are more large fires burning now than at any time in the past 40 years and the total area burned each year has also increased … In some states, like Arizona and Idaho, the number of large fires burning each year has tripled or even quadrupled. And in other states, including California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wyoming, the number of large fires has doubled.”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-12/rising-temps-shrinking-snowpack-fuel-western-wildfires.html
Hey look who fell for the climate change hoax.
China to raise solar output by 35 gigawatts in 3 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-15/china-to-back-solar-panel-makers-with-35-gigawatt-of-installs.html
I track solar panel kits on eBay and the price has gone up 5-10% in the last month before this news.
-also-
China tries to curb auto sales.
Eight new Chinese cities will begin imposing restrictions on car ownership in an attempt to reduce pollution and congestion.
http://qz.com/103002/chinas-attempts-to-limit-auto-sales-are-doomed-to-failure-by-its-ingenious-regulation-dodgers/
When Beijing decreed that citizens would be prevented from driving on one day of the week depending on what number their license plate ended with, people simply bought a second car.
When Beijing introduced an additional lottery-based quota system for new license plates—20,000 a month from January 2011— people bought and registered their vehicles outside the city limits. Authorities put restrictions on those, too, banning them from inside the 5th ring road at certain times. That put a lid on most activity, but didn’t stop some rental companies from buying up second-hand cars and leasing out the license plates.
Shanghai’s approach has been to hold a monthly auction for new license numbers. This hasn’t been so much of a problem for China’s rich elite, but poorer citizens have struggled—the price of a license plate can be higher than the cost of a vehicle. Ordinary citizens have resorted to other tricks, like turning to the large black market for military plates, which also offers a way of avoiding getting stopped by police. A six-year military plate can go for $45,000.
Climate change? Riiiiight. As if that visible yellow smoke they call “air” has nothing to do with it.
This is good news, goonie. A few more years of this and there will be no more fodder to start and feed these things, then we’ll have another 20-50 years without them.
Land is molto-cheapo after a wildfire goes through, and within two or three years, the vegetation has started to return…sans litter and deadfall. What’s not to love?
Well it’s kind of hard on some of the wildlife. It would be nice if we could just cut it back so there would be less erosion too.
Wildfire trends in the West are clear
It does seem to be worse every year.
Climatic warming exacerbated by sixty years of fire suppression policies have taken their toll on the ecosystem. The normal burn cycles were interrupted for so long that the fuel supply in the west is now both massive and explosive. Drought hasn’t been helping.
Loanowners = Miserable Loosers:
“A growing body of research suggests that spending money on real estate doesn’t necessarily mean investing in contentment.
“People still view housing as a central component of happiness and a critical aspect of the American dream,” Dr. Dunn said. “But there is little research to support that.”
“The reality of maintenance and repairs, and being ‘house rich but cash poor,’ can negate much of the perceived happiness people may have had about homeownership,” said Greg McBride, the senior financial analyst for Bankrate.com.
Many people understand homeownership as serial trading up with a goal of arriving at some sort of real estate perfection. But that dream house may be more elusive than it seems.
“Like any possession, its impact on happiness diminishes over time,” said Ravi Dhar, a psychology professor and the director of the Center for Customer Insight at Yale School of Management.
Experts in happiness — an increasingly popular field focused on the scientific understanding of emotional well-being — say that people are happier when they spend money on experiences instead of material goods, whether it be a new car or a bigger apartment.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/07/14/realestate/homeownership-the-key-to-happiness.html
see also Robert Shiller piece:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/07/14/business/owning-a-home-isnt-always-a-virtue.html
Or maybe people with more money can afford to spend it on experiences, so the happiness is caused by the money to begin with.
Reaper Drone Found Not Guilty In Death Of American Teenager
4,283 | 15 JULY 2013 | BY G-HAD
ARLINGTON, VA — A U.S. federal jury has found an MQ-9 Reaper drone not guilty of second degree murder and manslaughter in the aerial bombing death of a young American teenager, Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, who was killed in Yemen in October 2011.
As the verdict was read, the defendant YIPPEEKIYAY-88 sat motionless in the courtroom with a blank expression, its onboard camera swiveling back and forth between the jury and its operator, Capt. Ted Slaughter, who would have faced charges as an accessory to murder had there been a conviction.
http://www.duffelblog.com/2013/07/reaper-drone-acquitted-in-death-of-american-teenager/#ixzz2Z80pbAuJ
It’s funny to watch alpha sloth who thinks killing children with drones is great, over at yesterdays bits bucket, still this morning arguing about the Zimmerman verdict. Yet this government has an ongoing policy that to this day is killing unknown numbers of innocents.
I hope they hurry up and release the fully autonomous drones so we don’t have to blame the poor drone pilots for killing people. All we need is automated target profiling and we can have Judge, Jury and Executioner all in one package.
I find it interesting that so many libertarians came to Zim’s defense. I would have thought the freedom to walk down a street without facing checkpoints or armed vigilantes would mean something to them.
You know, ‘liberty’.
Gated community.
Obama’s “son” was not walking on a public thoroughfare.
‘ so many libertarians came to Zim’s defense’
Oh really? I don’t have time to even read the details of a single murder case in Florida. Plus I don’t let the media get me all worked up about about what they want me to focus on. Such things are usually a purposeful diversion tactic.
My FIL asked my wife and I what we thought about the case (he’s a retired judge). I told him that my interest level in the case was somewhere between watching paint dry and watching grass grow.
I told him that my summary based on what I’ve heard:
Aggressive kid has a run in with a guy with a gun.
Based on who each person was (and the situation), both felt threatened.
Bad stuff happened.
————
And you are spot on with the diversion tactic. I think I noted it yesterday, but Zimmerman is suing NBC for making him look like a racist based on their editing of his 911 call. They made it look like Zimmerman was tying the person looking suspicious to him being black, when he was really answering a direct question from the dispatcher as to the race of Martin.
Vigilante actions seem to resonate with libertarians. Why get big government involved when you can take care of it yourself?
Small picture, it makes sense, but like some other libertarian ideas, it doesn’t really work for the big picture, or take into account the perversity of human behavior.
Small picture, it makes sense, but like some other libertarian ideas, it doesn’t really work for the big picture, or take into account the perversity of human behavior.
I agree. It’s just like the secession thing. First, it’s states’ rights, then cities and counties, then neighborhoods and blocks. Pretty soon you couldn’t drive to the grocery store without passing 15 different checkpoints, of 15 different jurisdictions, with varying levels of sanity.
I don’t want to have to drive past Checkpoint Zimmerman and the like whenever I have to buy some coffee. I want my liberty.
Some people’s idiocy has no limits.
a sloth:
I can’t believe you view the Neighborhood Watch as a threat to your liberty. Not even close. The Patriot Act and rampant globalism (i.e., corporatism) would be targets for a person who expects basic liberties. Concerned neighbors are not really on the list.
Concerned neighbors are not really on the list.
Tell that to Trayvon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQgC5XUrjcE&feature=related
‘Howard Beale proclaims the mainstream media is meant to brainwash’
Trayvon Martin was high on lean / sizzurp / purple drank when he attacked George Zimmerman. Alpha posted about smoking pot at age 17, but the drugs Trayvon were on are more comparable to PCP.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/06/m-what_the_media_choose_not_to_know_about_trayvon.html
goon you know what we are for reading that?
I saw the red flags early too…cleaning his FB page, sealing school records….no recent pictures….
then add insult to injury the martins got a $1 million for a wrongful death and it wasn’t 99% of the people would call that insurance fraud.
In all fairness, Ben, unless you were privy to posts you decided not to publish, alpha seemed to be arguing that a drone program was a more “civilized” evolution from invasionary warfare, at least in terms of civilian casualties.
No one but a few psychopaths with their grubbies on the joystick think that accidentally blowing up children from on high is good clean fun, but consider how many are innocents are incinerated in one bombing run. I agree its a specious argument when one considers the moral cost, but again, it’s a marginal step better than the alternative.
The next step in the evolution is to have “our” war robots fight “their” war robots (GE fight Raytheon?) and leave human populations out of the equational altogether. Alpha consistently argues on the populist side of the equation on this blog. I’ve given him the benefit of the doubt on this one.
‘a more “civilized” evolution from invasionary warfare’
We’re not at war with these people, we’re just killing them.
‘The next step in the evolution is to have “our” war robots fight “their” war robots’
That can’t happen because these targets can’t afford drones.
Killing people is big business.
I just got a press release from General Dynamics. They’re reorganizing and merging 2 units so they can sell more effectively to US “allies”, many (most) of which are authoritarian regimes in troubled parts of the world.
The press release:
Title: General Dynamics to Consolidate Two Combat Systems Businesses
Date(s): 15-Jul-2013 12:00 Noon
GENERAL DYNAMICS
FALLS CHURCH, Va., July 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) announced today that, following a comprehensive review of the structure of its Combat Systems business group, General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products will be consolidated into General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems.
Mark C. Roualet, executive vice president of the Combat Systems group for General Dynamics, said, “In the face of changing demand in some of our markets and increasing competition across the board, we have determined that consolidation is the best way to maintain the competitiveness and profitability of these lines of business. This move will enable us to achieve greater efficiencies in operations and create more opportunities for growth.
“We remain committed to meeting the needs of our customers in each of the markets served by General Dynamics, and we believe this restructuring will improve the value of the products we deliver and the agility with which we respond to customers’ changing requirements.”
Michael S. Wilson, president of General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, will lead the combined organization. The company’s headquarters will be in St. Petersburg, Fla. The consolidation will result in the closing of the Charlotte, N.C., headquarters of General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products by the end of 2013.
General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products designs, develops and produces market-leading weapon, armament and vehicle survivability systems for the U.S. military and its allies; high-performance composite structures for the commercial, aerospace and defense markets; and a wide range of axles, suspension systems and components for commercial trucks, military vehicles and industrial off-highway machines. The company employs approximately 2,500 workers at facilities in 10 states and several non-U.S. locations.
General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems is a leading manufacturer of large, medium- and small-caliber munitions, mortar weapons and systems, artillery projectiles, bomb bodies, propellants, non-lethal and force-protection products. The company also manufactures precision metal components; provides explosive load, assemble and pack services for a variety of munitions, tactical missile and rocket programs; and designs and produces shaped charge warheads and control actuator systems. The company employs approximately 3,500 workers in the U.S. and Canada.
http://www.generaldynamics.com
Just as Iraqi villagers figured out how to use cell phones to thwart the mightiest military force the world has ever known, so will people of the Kush figure out that laser pointers can be modified to disable the scanning devices in navigational equipment.
For every high tech 20′ border fence there will always be an enterprising citizen on the other side renting out 21′ ladders.
And for every drone that’s brought down, a hundred American jobs will be saved. We can buy off the family of an incinerated Pakistani child for only $20K….
THINK OF THE JOBS.
That can’t happen because these targets can’t afford drones.
Their drones are people.
What I worry about is when one side defeats the other side’s robots, and the robots go after the other side’s population.
That’s best case. Worst case, some single entity manages to get control of all the robots, and sets them on everybody.
And that single entity is a ROBOT! A terrible, terrible robot….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ccKPSVQcFk
Allena’s vision was covered partly by Robot Jox, and now Pacific Rim.
“That’s best case. Worst case, some single entity manages to get control of all the robots, and sets them on everybody.”
This is covered in another movie, but the name escapes me. They’re little farming robots, but then they’re are reprogrammed to murder.
Oh yeah, and Terminator.
This is covered in another movie, but the name escapes me.
Was that the one with Gene Simmons?
Gas chambers are more humane.
Or they could use a kinder, gentler machine gun.
My rational mind gave up at the point where it was supposed to reconcile the notions that a half white/half Hispanic person is to be considered white and that a half white/half black president is to be considered black.
It’s been my hope that in a few dozen generations, due to interbreeding we’ll all be a fairly uniform light-brown.
then we will hire some huckster to put stars on our bellies.
“…we’ll all be a fairly uniform light-brown.”
There will always be people who find a way to distinguish between us and them, and proceed to incite hate against them.
BTW, have you ever considered the very concept of race? Based on my limited research, it seems more of a political tool than a biological categorization system.
“BTW, have you ever considered the very concept of race? Based on my limited research, it seems more of a political tool than a biological categorization system.”
At some point in the past, it was a survival trait. Recognizing your own kind, and learning to distrust/hate another is likely innate, and will take eons to do away with, if we ever do. But yes, it did become a political tool, as we are political animals.
No, I don’t wanna star.
Oh yeah…and growing up in the South…I have been told over and over and over by white and black liberals alike that blacks cannot be racist because they are the minority and that they were the ones originally subject to oppression.
So Hispanics are a minority as well and from their perspective…subject to some degree of oppression.
I guess it’s based on the degree of oppression?
If so then Jews and Native Americans should be up there pretty high as well.
Speaking of minorities, how many (actual) blondes have you met lately?
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/july_2013/more_americans_view_blacks_as_racist_than_whites_hispanics
jews are stereotypically well off or rich…so the wealth factor must be have a negative impact of the degree of oppression.
anyone here want to take a stabe and deriving this formula.
key inputs would be:
race
sex
wealth
nationality
political affiliation
somehow all of these factors would add up to ones degree of oppression.
Taking into consideration the fact that this is a Rasmussen poll:
That it showed more Americans consider blacks to be more racist than whites/hispanics just “might” be attributable to the fact that there are more whites/hispanics in America than blacks…?
This reminds us of the last time that Rasmussen polling was mentioned on this blog.
Agreed. I wrote a week ago that I thought the equation was:
white parent + minority parent = minority child
But on second thought maybe that was taken into consideration, which is why there weren’t the riots that many had anticipated.
give it time. al sharpton and the other race hustlers are pissing gasoline on the fire. and even if there aren’t riots like los angeles 1992 or cincinnati 2000, there will be hundreds and hundreds of incidents of black on white (and asian and hispanic) assaults in cities across the country in the name of ‘justice for trayvon’ for months and years to come, none of which will be touched by the media.
perhaps it’s:
white mother + minority father = minority child
minority mother + white father = white child
that could work in this case. i will let the resident HBB liberals decide if that formula is satisfactory.
Yeah, what happened to the riots we were promised? Don’t tell me I stockpiled my ammo and boarded up my house for nothing.
Also by extension we could presume that since the justice system is racist toward blacks to include the extension of preference to Hispanics, then Hernandez should get off?
Current generation has no leaders and little political clout.
Maybe if someone really important and symbolic is assassinated you could inspire a few thousand to riot. trayvon isn’t important enough.
Considering Obama black is ridiculous. He’s whiter than 99% of white people, between his white protestant mother from Kansas, his dual Ivy degrees, and his white cultural contacts. Michelle O was the first black woman he ever dated. I never understood why people consider him black. Bill Clinton is (was) a lot blacker than Obama. George W Bush also acts a lot blacker than Obama.
His color is green
“Bill Clinton is (was) a lot blacker than Obama.”
Hell yeah, his office is in Harlem.
My rational mind gave up at the point where it was supposed to reconcile the notions that a half white/half Hispanic person is to be considered white and that a half white/half black president is to be considered black.
Zimmerman has a “white” surname and looks white. Also, just because you are Hispanic, it doesn’t mean you are mestizo. There are white, even blond with blue eyes, Hispanics
I mentioned this the other day. Hispanic is not a race. About half of all Hispanic Americans consider themselves to be white. It’s quite likely that Zimmerman thinks that way.
wait just one second…if someone thinks all illegal aliens should be shipped back to mexico the MSM and whatver that non-profit entity taht represnts them is called…say those people are racist.
I doubt that. Go find an MSM article and share the link with us.
Also, sending all illegal aliens to Mexico would be wacky. Illegal aliens come from all over the world, not just on country.
Some children are more PC to kill than others.
My favorite headline….
http://tinyurl.com/pvo4rna
“The dig has uncovered evidence suggesting that Tun Tavern — the beloved institutional Mecca of the United States Marine Corps — was an active gay bar when the Corps’ first officers used it to recruit the original Continental Marines in 1775….
And the money-quote:
‘This find has confirmed what many of us suspected for years,” said the study’s NCOIC, Army Sgt. 1st Class Craig Mangas. ‘It’s apparent, regarding the nature of current Marines, that they’ve evolved from some sort of ultra-queer genome.’”
LOL…….I thought the same thing……(re: money quote)
Mr. Snivelers accused me of being a conspiracy theorist yesterday, when I said that gas prices, like many other commodity markets, are being manipulated by the pigmen.
As it happens, I’m not the only one.
Straight from a link from the gold bug/gold backed currency lover’s favorite website.
http://tinyurl.com/nnhkg94
I can believe what I want to believe, or I can believe what my calibrated Mk I eyeballs tell me.
We have plenty of proof that all kinds of markets (commodities/Libor/you name it) are gamed by the pigmen. We also have plenty of evidence that nobody in the government gives a rat’s ass.
Oil prices ARE manipulated. I’ve been on the trading floors.
What is OPEC? Of course oil prices are manipulated.
Meanwhile, back at the Casa de Representivicos………Republicans are working another back-door bankster bailout, aka “fixing” the MERS mess.
http://tinyurl.com/oflfr46
There are a few things brewing. Jeb Hensarling (link goes to donor profile on OpenSecrets), chair of the House Financial Services committee, has introduced a bill which would wind down the GSEs. And SIFMA is for it. Which makes me wonder, what’s the hidden angle? The GSEs pump vast sums of money into the FIRE sector, so what’s up with Hensarling pushing it and SIFMA’s approval?
…. and I just answered my question. Along with the GSE wind down, is this from the SIFMA link: “SIFMA also applauds the inclusion of provisions that halt the use of eminent domain to seize mortgages from Main Street investors, as this would have an unprecedented and damaging effect.”
So the part of the bill that would survive would be the eminent domain ban, and the GSE wind-down component would be eliminated.
Never mind
Last Monday I posted about an Open House I attended in my nabe where the house was lsited for almost $150/sq ft. I mentioned that I had picked the realtor apart with what houses had really sold for and also told her my address and what we paid, suggesting she look it up.
Per zillow, (wannabe) sellers just dropped the asking price by 20k. It needs to drop another 50k before I’d bother again, but it’s a start. (At 50k less it would be down to ~100/sq ft.) I dont’ know about other people’s cities, but if a house around Baltimore doesn’t go pending by baseball playoffs/NFL season, the seller starts to get desparate. I’ve seen people try to hold open houses when college football is on or the Ravens are playing and it’s brutal - absolutely empty. Good time to go and make lowball cash offers and then leave your card so they can remember you when it’s January and they’re freezing and can’t wait until May to re-list.
A 2 week old listing for a similar house (albeit on a busier street) is at $85/sq ft already. I’m going to look at that place Wednesday after work. Will offer cash at maybe $70 sq ft because it has a detached garage I can rent separately as a storage place and the house has the right size/layout/location for 2 units. If they don’t take that, that one will also last until the winter and can probably scoop it up for even less when the calendar turns over.
Anyone else see this?
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/07/14/business/owning-a-home-isnt-always-a-virtue.html
Shiller says we should make LL/tenant laws more uniform/transparent. And we should stop supporting “home ownership”, aka home debtorship (he doesn’t say that, that’s my addition).
From one of the articles yesterday: “The state couldn’t prove that Zimmerman started the fight between him and Trayvon.” This is the crux of what I argued Friday as to why there’d be no conviction. The jury got it right.
That said, some of the comments here yesterday were disturbing. For the “Trayvon’s a thug”/”Trayvon got what he deserved” crowd, a serious question: If you know that a stranger is following you in the dark for a period of time that is unacceptable to you, how would you respond to it?
(Given how much you know about Martin to be able to make the judgments you have, and given the assumption that you know yourself better than you know Martin, this shouldn’t be a difficult question.)
trayvon did not deserve to die. a preferable outcome would be that he is alive and in jail for attempted murder of george zimmerman.
he would have been dead within a decade anyway, probably at the hands of a black assailant. live like a thug, die like a thug.
It’s not a matter of whether or not he deserved to die. It is a matter of the things that happen when violence is chosen.
trayvon did not deserve to die. a preferable outcome would be that he is alive and in jail for attempted murder of george zimmerman
Since there were no witnesses who saw how the fight started, Trayvon would have been acquitted of any attempted murder charge.
exactly goon i had his death pegged 21 and probably a lot sooner at the rate he was going.
“…a serious question: If you know that a stranger is following you in the dark for a period of time that is unacceptable to you, how would you respond to it?”
Use the cell phone you are currently having a conversation on and call 911, saying, ‘Send help! A bad man is following me!’
Knock on the nearest door and say, ‘ Help! A bad man is following me!’
Turn around and say very loudly, ‘Excuse me. Are you following me for some reason?’ and then have a conversation, telling the Neighborhood Watch person where you live.
There are 3 options right off the top of my head.
sleepless,
Had I been Martin in that scenario, I would have gone straight to my condo (or a close neighbor’s) and called the police to report a suspicious character following me. Alternately, I would have turned on my heel and ostentatiously filmed Zimmerman with the Smartphone I was carrying and say, “Smile, (insert random epithet here) you’re live on the internet. What can I do for you?”
Martin initially ran away, (his condo was about 100 yards from where the confrontation took place and he had four minutes to get there.) But instead of going into it and closing the door behind him, he doubled back along a side corridor and jumped Zimmerman, who was returning to his SUV.
But instead of going into it and closing the door behind him, he doubled back along a side corridor and jumped Zimmerman, who was returning to his SUV.
According to whom?
My intent isn’t to retry this thing. I know we all _think_ that we’d do the right thing…
On Friday I stated a violent response by Martin wasn’t advisable. After thinking about it more this weekend in the context of stand-your-ground, while still not advisable, I’m not so sure such a response isn’t acceptable in such cases.
If an unarmed person perceives he is being threatened and they warn the perceived assailant that if they don’t back off you’re going to attack (with fists not a gun), is that different than stand-your-ground?
Even with stand your ground, you do not have the right to use deadly force unless you perceive that you are in mortal danger. Zimmerman was “Concealed Carrying” his firearm. Martin had no idea of any “mortal” danger, other than someone was following him, which is not a crime.
Zimmerman, on the other hand, did perceive mortal danger when his head was being bashed into concrete.
You bring fists and knives to a gun fight, you will die, horribly. Zimmerman’s only crime was that of being an idiot who put himself in mortal danger.
Martin had no idea of any “mortal” danger, other than someone was following him, which is not a crime.
^More speculation. You don’t know what Martin felt, and neither do I. That’s why Zimmerman correctly went without conviction.
I was speaking more in generalities, about when it is acceptable to use violence as a response, independent of who has what weapon.
I’ve changed my stance from Friday that it’s unacceptable to use violence to confront and neutralize a situation. If a person perceives mortal danger, as you stated, then via stand-your-ground it is acceptable.
Bringing it back to this case, prosecution couldn’t prove that the initial conflict was anything more than “someone following him.” That doesn’t mean it wasn’t more than “someone following him.”
According to admitted testimony (Zimmerman, Jeantel, Singleton) and logic. It doesn’t take four minutes to walk a hundred yards — especially if you’re a “frightened child trying to get home.”
Media news junkies.
These are the days of our lives.
Like lies through media outlets, so these are the days of our lives.
The raw feed of the trial was a compelling (and thought-provoking) civics lesson. Too bad more people didn’t bother to watch it in its entirety instead of relying on the Biased Media’s narrative.
If they had, the protests would be going the other way.
The NPR newscasters are treading very lightly on the many facts which might help dispel the notion that Martin was an innocent 17-year-old attacked by a bloodthirsty honky with a gun.
Posted in: News Posted: July 15, 2013
George Zimmerman Guilty of Bad Judgment, Zimmerman Juror Says [Video]
A George Zimmerman juror has gone public.
Zimmerman juror B-37 told CNN’s Anderson Cooper tonight that she was convinced it was the defendant’s voice on the 911 tape and that Trayvon Martin threw the first punch in the fatal confrontation. This particular juror is also apparently writing a book about the trial according to a literary agent.
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As far as the 911 call that became a huge part of the case, juror B-37 said that “I think it was George Zimmerman’s (voice)… because of the evidence that he was the one that had gotten beaten.” She noted that at least five of six jurors on the panel believed that it was the neighborhood watch captain’s voice.
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If Ben Bernack sold 300 billion a year for 10 years what would the 10yr bond rate be?
HM MMM?
Is he doing it
a) in the context of a government with out of control spending and deficits as far as the eye can see?
Or
b) in the context of tax and entitlement reform which were designed to bring the deficit under control in a reasonable timeframe?
The rate will be much higher for “a” than “b”.
Smaulgld
Where is the Economic Recovery? Podcast 7/12/13
http://smaulgld.com/where-is-the-economic-recovery-podcast-71213/
Bubbanear
Thanks for the shout out! Tomorrow I will post about pundits who are struck with a type of “recovery syndrome” that causes excessive economic cheerleading. For now here are some posts on the Fed’s no exit dilemma. http://smaulgld.com/tag/fed-exit-strategy/
1. Ignore the gloomsters.
2. Buy as many stocks as you can afford, as the stock market always goes up.
3. Be sure to tap into your home equity wealth gains to pay for your stock purchases.
4. Make your stock purchases on margin in order to maximize your leverage.
Do 1., 2., 3. and 4. if you want to soon be a millionaire. Otherwise ignore my advice.
Ignore the gloomsters!
U.S. is dangerously close to economic contraction
First Take: Consumers are growing more cautious, which could trip up the recovery, says Rex Nutting.
• Prepare for the next crash right now | Dow, S&P hit another record
THE BREAKFAST BRIEFING
The so-called “Bernanke Put” is back in play.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 3% last week, its best week since the first week of the year, as investors Wednesday took faith in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s commitment to the bank’s easy money policies that have helped bolster the economy for years. The idea is that Mr. Bernanke and those policies will protect the market against downturns, much as put options, which grant the right to sells shares at a set price, and can protect stock portfolios in the event of a slide.
“The phones have been crazy,” William Lefkowitz, options strategist at asset management and brokerage firm National Securities, said Thursday. “People are excited after the Bernanke comments.”
“The retail investor is feeling better, with confidence in the market probably the highest I’ve seen it all year,” he said.
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With a Royal Baby Due, News Outlets Are on High Alert
By BRIAN STELTER
Published: July 14, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/business/media/with-a-royal-baby-due-news-outlets-are-on-high-alert.html -
Shouldn’t abortion rights people be up in arms about this headline? Shouldn’t it be like the Royal Fetus? What if Kate Middleton decided to have a late term Royal abortion? Didn’t they just have a big argument about this and chant Satan somewhere? I thought you weren’t allowed to call it a baby until it was born or home from the hospital or something.
Stay safe.
Police say Jogger Attacked in Wake of Zimmerman Verdict
By Todd Starnes
A man jogging alongside a Mississippi highway was abducted and beaten by three African-American men allegedly in retaliation of the George Zimmerman verdict, police told Fox News.
Senatobia Police Chief Steve Holt told Fox News the victim, who is white, was jogging Sunday night along Highway 51 when the suspects pulled over and ordered him to get inside their car.
“One of them asked, ‘Do you know who Trayvon Martin was?’” Holt said. At that point, the men in the vehicle attacked the victim.
Memphis television station WREG reported the assailants told the victim, “This is for Trayvon.” The television station and The Democrat newspaper reported the jogger was badly beaten and later dropped off on a road between Senatobia and Coldwater, Miss.
The victim, who the chief described as a young man who lives in the area, was treated at a local hospital. He refused to elaborate on the extent of the victim’s injuries or whether he was hospitalized.
The police chief also declined to release any other details in the attack other than to say they are searching for three black males in a white, four-door vehicle.
“We want to find out why this happened,” the chief said, while also cautioning local residents to “be safe.”
The police department is urging local residents who might have information to contact Crimestoppers at 662-301-1111.
http://radio.foxnews.com/toddstarnes/top-stories/police-say-jogger-attacked-in-wake-of-zimmerman-verdict.html - -
This house needs alot of work.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13080-90th-Ave-Seminole-FL-33776/47129784_zpid/
+1 I don’t see any cars parked on the front lawn on that street. Is the place just depreciated, or was it stripped?