July 25, 2013

A Bet That Prices Will Appreciate

Palo Alto Weekly reports from California. “At Classics at Monroe Place, a development of 26 homes on the former Palo Alto Bowl site at 4329 El Camino Real, four homes previewed on Saturday, July 13. Bids were proffered by 6 p.m. Sunday and offers accepted by 6 p.m. Monday. The prospective new owners had 48 hours to back out. Officially, the houses were on the market for six days. The housing market has been competitive this year — and subject to bidding wars — so the quick sale was not a surprise to local Realtors.”

“The four homes were all three-story, a little more than 2,000 square feet. Two were free-standing; the other two shared a wall. The base asking prices were $1.51 to $1.62 million. ‘It’s not unusual for something to sell this fast,’ noted Coldwell Banker, Palo Alto, agent Nancy Goldcamp. ‘Especially new construction and in entry level.’”

The San Francisco Examiner. “After a meteoric recovery, San Mateo County’s residential real estate market might be flattening, but that has not driven down prices, according to a recent report. Susan Tanner, a real estate broker with Dreyfus Properties, said cooling off after a spring run-up on housing is typical in the county. Current home prices — with a median value of $960,000 — will likely hold for the remainder of the year, Tanner said. Even in those cities north of Menlo Park, entry-level homes are running for about $1.5 million, Tanner said. And many buyers assume they have to bid at least 10 percent above the asking price, which still can be insufficient to secure a deal, Tanner said.”

“The homes that are hitting the market are receiving multiple offers. ‘There were 17 offers for a house listed for $900,000,’ Tanner said.”

The Mercury News. “The median sales price for all types of homes in the nine-county Bay Area jumped 33 percent to $555,000 in June, the largest annual increase in at least 24 years. But in a reflection of the small number of homes on the market, the number of sales dropped sharply in a month when they typically increase, according to DataQuick. ‘Three factors that got us to this amazing yearly price gain are ultratight inventory, ultralow mortgage rates and record or near-record levels of investor purchases,’ said Andrew LePage of DataQuick. ‘Now all three are changing in a way that suggests these kinds of price increases won’t continue for long.’”

“Julie Pavlova lost out on two homes to offers that were $50,000 and $20,000 more than hers. Now she is buying a home in South San Jose for a little less than its owners’ $670,000 asking price. After selling her townhouse in less than a week in June for $165,000 more than she paid for it a year ago, Pavlova said she shopped around for about month and saw the market getting a little less intense. ‘I’m not sure if it’s interest rates going up or what the reason is,’ she said. ‘It’s gone down a little bit price-wise, and fewer people coming in with these huge offers.’”

The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “The median price for a single-family home in Santa Cruz County was $595,000 in June, spurring more people to put their homes up for sale. The recent increase in interest rates is making it harder for buyers on the low end and may keep values from rising further. Sally Bookman of Keller Williams, who has been in real estate since 1974, cited an example of buyers who had qualified at $540,000. ‘Suddenly they can only spend $515,000,’ she said.”

“The upside of rising values is more choices for buyers. ‘We’re seeing twice as many listings coming on,’ said Bookman, noting 16 pages of listings for brokers a week ago Thursday compared to the six to eight that had been typical. She sounded a cautionary note for sellers. ‘A lot of people are pie in the sky,’ she said. ‘They don’t want to list where we feel they should be. … You have to price very accurately.’”

From Bakersfield Now. “The local real estate market is making a comeback, but local experts don’t think it’s headed for another so-called bubble. Long-time appraiser Gary Crabtree says home prices in Bakersfield have gone up 36 percent in the last 12 months, but he predicts a ‘more normal’ market is ahead. ‘Housing prices are rapidly escalating right now,’ Crabtree told Eyewitness News. ‘As of today, for the month of May, our median price is $188,000.’ He compares that to data showing the local median home price at $175,000 in May of 2004 at the high point in the bubble, to the near the low point in May 2009 of $125,000.”

“‘If that vacancy factor goes up and it becomes more competitive in the rental market, rental prices are not keeping pace with price increases,’ Crabtree says. ‘And therefore, there’s going to be a point of diminishing returns where the investor is going to have to make a business decision whether to keep that rental property or to place it on the market for sale.’”

The Merced County Times. “The ground was broken last Friday on the first major housing development in Merced in years and already half the homes have been presold. The price range of the new homes is very affordable at $215,000 to $225,000. Roselin Charitar, lead broker for the homes, said since bank owned properties are now bringing 20 to 30 bids and many above asking price. ‘We felt it was an ideal time to add new housing to the market.’”

“Bernie Heyne, the developer, knows how few homes have been available in the Merced market area. At one point recently there were only 82 homes on the market. Heyne said, ‘This led me to believe that it is an opportune time to start construction.’”

The Daily Pilot. “An ‘urban industrial’ housing project in Costa Mesa’s Westside is being marketed with Millennial buyers in mind. Sea House — a 33-home tract — will feature three-story homes starting in the low $600,000s. The homes — which have two or three bedrooms, two full bathrooms and two half bathrooms — are between 1,587 and 1,785 square feet. The ground levels have attached, two-car garages and an entry room that can be used as an office or den. The second story has the kitchen and a combined living and dining room. Some also have second-story balconies. The third story houses the bedrooms.”

“When asked about the nearly $600,000 asking price to a young generation — many of whom, according to recent studies, are burdened with college debt and a lack of full-time employment — Timothy A Kane, MBK’s president, said sales will be aided by the Newport-Mesa area’s affluence and proximity to the ocean. Furthermore, there are good-paying jobs and high-end restaurants nearby, he said. He used surf/skate/snow company Volcom, based on nearby Monrovia Avenue, as an example.”

“‘Volcom is down the street, so there’s all those executives at Volcom that need places to live,’ Kane said.”

The Burbank Leader. “The median price for a single-family home climbed roughly 10%, from $544,500 in June 2012 to $598,750 last month, according to Realtor Eric Benz with Dilbeck Real Estate in Burbank. Realtor Marion Goodman, a member of the Burbank Assn. of Realtors board, said that although prices were still rising last month, she’s starting to see the market flatten out. ‘There’s a plateau that we’ve reached, and I hope it’s just temporary,’ she said.”

“Goodman said a number of factors could be contributing to the market’s leveling off, including first-time buyers who are taking a step back from buying aspirations because they have seen their offers rejected in favor of all-cash transactions. ‘It does something to your psyche. You think you’re making a good offer and then you get beat by all-cash buyers,’ she said. ‘It’s a tough market for first-time buyers right now.’”

From Bloomberg. “Jung Lim plans to offset the cost of rising mortgage rates by using an adjustable-rate loan to buy a home for his expanding family. For the California endodontist, the money he’ll save makes up for the ARM’s risky reputation. Lim is leaving a two-bedroom condo in Los Angeles’s Hancock Park to buy a four-bedroom house in the city’s Sherman Oaks neighborhood for $1.12 million. His lender offered him a rate for an adjustable mortgage that is about a percentage point cheaper than a fixed loan.”

“‘If I could have gotten a 30-year fixed at the interest rate I’m getting the ARM for, I would have felt a lot more comfortable,’ said Lim. ‘But I’m hoping to refinance in five years or less. And we’ll be in the house for about 10 years so we could also sell. Hopefully prices have bottomed, so we won’t be underwater.’”

“Vivian Cohn in Hollister, California, lowered her monthly mortgage payments to about $940 from $1,400 in May when she took out a 5-1 ARM, meaning the rate is fixed for the first five years. After that, her 2.2 percent initial rate could adjust as much as 5 percentage points higher. Cohn doesn’t see the threat of a rate change as a problem. When she retires in two years, she and her husband are moving to Panama, Cohn said. If they can’t sell the house at that point, they’ll rent it for the next three years and sell then, before the loan adjusts, said Cohn.”

“‘A fixed rate isn’t for everybody,’ Cohn said. ‘We know we’re moving, so there’s no point in paying for a guaranteed rate if we won’t use it.’”

“In Los Angeles, Lim is happy to be locked at a 4.6 percent rate for an adjustable mortgage that is fixed for 10 years, about a percentage point cheaper than a loan fixed for 30 years, he said. ‘It’s a bet that prices will appreciate, that your income will stay the same or increase and that rates will stay stable,’ said Leah Guerra, the agent with Rodeo Realty who is helping Lim with the purchase. ‘It’s a bet that confident people make.’”




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69 Comments »

Comment by 2banana
2013-07-25 05:51:52

Things are different here.

Everyone wants to live here.

“When asked about the nearly $600,000 asking price to a young generation — many of whom, according to recent studies, are burdened with college debt and a lack of full-time employment — Timothy A Kane, MBK’s president, said sales will be aided by the Newport-Mesa area’s affluence and proximity to the ocean. Furthermore, there are good-paying jobs and high-end restaurants nearby, he said. He used surf/skate/snow company Volcom, based on nearby Monrovia Avenue, as an example.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2013-07-25 07:28:13

Everyone wants to live everywhere, apparently;

‘Housing prices are rapidly escalating right now,” Crabtree told Eyewitness News on Tuesday. “As of today, for the month of May, our median price is $188,000.” He compares that to data showing the local median home price at $175,000 in May of 2004 at the high point in the bubble…Crabtree says the local market isn’t quite normal right now. “We have little, if any job creation, the unemployment still remains high, so consequently we don’t have the underlying economy to support a continuing price increase,” he said.’

‘Home prices in Fresno County continue to rise, making some of the biggest gains we’ve seen since the market crashed six years ago. Real estate broker Dan Hawkins with Realty Concepts says home prices are at the highest they have been in several years. “The median price starting out in January was $163,000 and at the end of June, the median price was $198,000,” said Hawkins. That’s a $35,000 jump in just the last six months.”

‘Hawkins says the market shows no signs of slowing down and home prices will likely continue to rise, and so could interest rates, so he recommends you buy now. Hawkins also says that unless there is a sudden spike in inventory, he expects prices to continue to go up for the next couple of years.’

 
Comment by Dale
2013-07-25 11:41:14

Not sure bussing tables at “high end restaurants” pays much more than low end restaurants and certainly not enough for a $600T condo - there might be some strawberry fields around Irvine though.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2013-07-25 05:53:25

What could go wrong?

Oh - and they will be all victims.

—————-

“Vivian Cohn in Hollister, California, lowered her monthly mortgage payments to about $940 from $1,400 in May when she took out a 5-1 ARM, meaning the rate is fixed for the first five years. After that, her 2.2 percent initial rate could adjust as much as 5 percentage points higher. Cohn doesn’t see the threat of a rate change as a problem. When she retires in two years, she and her husband are moving to Panama, Cohn said. If they can’t sell the house at that point, they’ll rent it for the next three years and sell then, before the loan adjusts, said Cohn.”

Comment by aNYCdj
2013-07-25 06:54:20

Excellent strategy save $460 a month, then move to Panama take all your cash…then who cares about the house, cant sue them in Panama…

But i’ll bet they keep paying the mortgage from Panama while they have no tenants or worse ….tenants that cause $25,000 in damages….and they will pay that too……and claim they are victims

Comment by snake charmer
2013-07-25 10:02:04

Panama has a housing bubble too. My old barrio is almost unrecognizable with all the condo towers, and from my internet searches it appears that flippers have gotten into my former apartment building. If you get ripped off in this country you at least have a chance at redress in some form.

I am intrigued at how many people are bypassing Florida for retirement. There’s a strong message there. Of course down here we can’t be bothered with warnings like that.

 
 
Comment by whirlyite
2013-07-25 07:00:58

Plenty could go wrong in two years, i.e., automobile accident, cancer diagnosis, wildfire, earthquake, etc., etc. It’s good to have a plan, just keep in mind that nothing in this life is a given.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 05:54:58

Dumb.Borrowed.Money.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 06:02:36

Current home prices — with a median value of $960,000 — will likely hold for the remainder of the year, Tanner said.

These corrupt realtards truly are clueless. Prices of anything don’t “hold”. They’re always in a state of flux…. and when demand begins to collapse because of inflated price, guess what happens to price?

What clueless A$$hats.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 06:06:58

“Vivian Cohn in Hollister, California, lowered her monthly mortgage payments to about $940 from $1,400 in May when she took out a 5-1 ARM, meaning the rate is fixed for the first five years.

Oh my word. Keep this one in your tickler file to compare to the tales of woe you’ll all be hearing from this underwater debt junkie.

Comment by Jingle Male
2013-07-25 13:20:12

HA, you said the same thing to me in 2010 and I have 164,000 reasons why you are wrong, each worth a dollar. Your message is getting very old, tiresome and often wrong today.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 14:30:34

You got nothing but debt…… Now carry on like the fool with a hole in his pocket that you really are.

 
Comment by United States of Speculative Bubbles
2013-07-25 16:56:59

And your shilling is getting old as well. You’re nothing but a dumb luck speculator who benefited from events both beyond your control and unpredictable, assuming what you say is true. I have my doubts.

 
 
 
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2013-07-25 06:15:53

Yup, Bubble 2.0 has reached altitude and is approaching full cruising speed. All systems are ‘Go’ and everything is moving forward according to plan. Like that bullet train in Spain, what could possibly go wrong?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-25/instant-tragic-spanish-train-crash-caught-cctv-camera

Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 06:28:50

…what could possibly go wrong?

Evictions announced to those people in debt have shoved them into the verge of “nowhere” in a way that they find no other way but suicide.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXPs9npvsl8

Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 09:17:05

Or maybe a BK.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2013-07-25 07:01:07

A house next street over…WOW this is nuts almost 100 years old…..its pretty much what we are living in….they made a lot of these type houses in my area.

I’ll check to see if it has the illegal 3rd basement apartment since its the only possible way to afford this..maybe

http://www.trulia.com/property/3125130591-Multi-Family-Home-Queens-NY-11104

Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 07:44:51

LOL! Gotta love the kitchen!

Comment by aNYCdj
2013-07-25 08:01:10

Yeah a california type kitchen but the middle room is supposed to be the dining area…plus there is a little area for a breakfast table/storage….

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Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 09:56:03

That doesn’t look like any kitchen we ever had in California.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2013-07-25 12:39:46

I guess most people in other parts of the country call it a galley kitchen …..

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 06:21:08

“Why get ripped of by paying massively inflated prices for depreciating 20 year old houses? Pre-bubble prices are 70% lower than current asking prices of resale housing. Buy later, after prices crater for 70% less.”

bingo

 
Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 06:25:55

Well if it wasn’t meant to be, then NOW it REALLY wasn’t meant to be …

Watchdog: Borrowers in Obama housing program re-defaulting

Nearly 1.2 million mortgage modifications have been completed since the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) was first launched four years ago. Yet more than 306,000 borrowers have re-defaulted on their loans and more than 88,000 are at risk of following suit, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) found in its quarterly report to Congress.

Read more: http://www.wyff4.com/news/money/watchdog-borrowers-in-obama-housing-program-redefaulting/-/9323996/21137896/-/4nrf7d/-/index.html#ixzz2a3zsv1IG

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 06:34:19

There is a tsunami of pending defaults building. Combined with the massive distressed inventory and it becomes the perfect storm.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 07:39:09

Don’t forget that it is aided and abetted by REIC lies and bubble denial.

 
 
 
Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 06:31:35

Why The Housing Market Is An Accident Waiting To Happen: Part 3

First-time home buyers, long a key underpinning of the housing market, are increasingly getting left behind in the real-estate recovery…The depressed level of first-time buyers could prove to be a drag on the housing rebound and the broader economic recovery over the longer haul. -Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2013

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/7/22/536584-13745278979622612-Dave-Kranzler_origin.png

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-07-25 06:34:29

‘Research firm DataQuick says Tuesday that lenders filed more than 25,700 notices of default from April to June. That was up 38.7 percent from the previous quarter.’

‘There were 25,747 default notices filed last quarter involving 24,999 homes occupied by borrowers who were in default on multiple loans. Those loans included a primary mortgage and line of credit. Spots where loans had a highest probability of going into default were in Solano, Fresno and Riverside counties.’

‘Even if home prices rose another 20 percent, 1.6 million California homeowners would still be underwater. That amounts to more than 15 percent of all homes with mortgages.’

‘A list of states where HARP refinance activity has been strongest showed California on top of the rankings. As of April 30, 2013, HARP refinance loans in California have totaled 343,303, followed by Florida (212,755), Michigan (164,866), Illinois (164,492) and Arizona (121,989). Out of those California HARP refinances, 71,045 were considered to be “High LTV”, or having a loan-to-value ratio exceeding 125 percent.’

‘Last year, HARP guidelines were amended to allow severely underwater, or High LTV borrowers to qualify for the program.’

Comment by United States of Moral Hazard
2013-07-25 10:20:37

Meanwhile, I see houses which are still empty after 5 years, presumably owned by lenders who have forgotten about them, or are not interested in selling and taking the hit to their balance sheet.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-07-25 11:07:31

There are houses around here that have been empty for YEARS.

 
Comment by Dale
2013-07-25 11:53:33

Time for banks to return to “mark to market” accounting practices …..it will fix everything. Was this suspended temporarily - permanently?

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-07-25 12:55:00

Only until it won’t result in a drop in prices.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 19:30:31

‘Research firm DataQuick says Tuesday that lenders filed more than 25,700 notices of default from April to June. That was up 38.7 percent from the previous quarter.’

Luckily, thanks to the California Loanowners’ Bill of Rights, few if any of these NODs will lead to foreclosure actions.

 
 
Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 06:36:38

Why The Housing Market Is An Accident Waiting To Happen: Part 3

First-time home buyers, long a key underpinning of the housing market, are increasingly getting left behind in the real-estate recovery…The depressed level of first-time buyers could prove to be a drag on the housing rebound and the broader economic recovery over the longer haul. -Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2013

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1567432

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 07:37:33

“The depressed level of first-time buyers could prove to be a drag on the housing rebound and the broader economic recovery over the longer haul. -Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2013″

So nice of the WSJ writers to endorse what many HBB posters have said repeatedly over the past several years…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-07-25 11:08:31

We’re a leading indicator.

 
 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-07-25 12:20:53

A ponzi scheme is nothing without a steady supply of greater fools.

Comment by kmo722
2013-07-25 13:04:03

well said..

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-07-25 07:29:59

“Housing Sales At Multi Decade Lows”

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/03/20130328_house2.jpg

You do know what happens when prices rise on tiny volume…. right?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 07:30:23

“The base asking prices were $1.51 to $1.62 million. ‘It’s not unusual for something to sell this fast,’ noted Coldwell Banker, Palo Alto, agent Nancy Goldcamp. ‘Especially new construction and in entry level.’”

$1.5+ million is now entry level in Palo Alto? Must be time for Frannie Maec to increase the conforming loan limit to free up federally-guaranteed loans for the entry level buyers who snatch these up.

Comment by United States of Moral Hazard
2013-07-25 10:24:41

And this is before Facebook’s stellar earnings report. What’s that good for, another $300k or so? Nevermind that much of the new users are fake names due to news sites forcing people to have a FB account to continue commenting.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 07:33:00

“The median sales price for all types of homes in the nine-county Bay Area jumped 33 percent to $555,000 in June,the largest annual increase in at least 24 years. But in a reflection of the small number of homes on the market, the number of sales dropped sharply in a month when they typically increase, according to DataQuick.”

Screaming price increases on plummeting transactions volume somehow rings a bell. Any thoughts on what might happen next?

Comment by bink
2013-07-25 15:27:16

Peace and prosperity for all? Candy crapping unicorns?

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 07:34:02

“The recent increase in interest rates is making it harder for buyers on the low end and may keep values from rising further. Sally Bookman of Keller Williams, who has been in real estate since 1974, cited an example of buyers who had qualified at $540,000. ‘Suddenly they can only spend $515,000,’ she said.”

What I said…

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 07:36:05

P.S. How much income do Sally’s ‘low end’ buyers make to qualify for spending $515K? (I recall a ‘low end’ couple snatching up a home several addresses up the street from us back in 2005; within a year, they were out of the house and divorced. It probably didn’t help matters that they couldn’t afford to buy a stove for the kitchen when they first moved in, thanks to burdensome monthly payments.)

Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 07:50:28

The “Low end” has been redefined. It’s obviously not a cashier at the local Ralph’s or a delivery van driver. More like two cube farm dwellers earning a combined mid 100’s salary. Which is a minority of the population

 
 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2013-07-25 07:38:14

builder stocks crashing
recuvahry summah V

Comment by Ben Jones
2013-07-25 07:49:04

‘It’s gotten so bad, that the company announced a stock buyback plan less than eight months after going public. In announcing the 2.5 million share plan — nearly 7% of outstanding shares — Silver Bay CEO David Miller said the plan “… affirms our confidence in the long-term view of the company’s trajectory.”

‘Long-term is the key. Silver Bay’s business model is highly dependent on the rental income it generates from its properties. At the end of the first quarter the firm owned 4,594 single-family residential properties. The thing is, just 2,413 of those properties were leased. It’s hard to make your numbers with a 53% occupancy rate.’

‘Silver Bay says the low lease rate is simply a function of ramp-up realities: right now it’s acquiring properties faster than it can spruce up its inventory and get them onto the rental market. Of Silver Bay’s “stabilized” properties — those ready to be rented — the occupancy rate is 92%.’

‘In a recent SEC filing, here’s what management had to say about acquisitions running far ahead of marketable properties: “Although this trend will likely continue for several more quarters, we believe our overall portfolio occupancy rate will gradually rise as renovation and leasing activity increases to absorb the new inventory and new acquisitions as a proportion of our existing portfolio decline.”

‘Several quarters? Gradually rise? Not exactly what investors want to hear. Which raises the question of why go public before you have a revenue stream in place. As we explained in an earlier look at Silver Bay, while investors have yet to make a penny, the private equity firm that is behind this deal is pocketing an advisory fee through a subsidiary that is running the operation.’

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1570942-playing-landlord-reit-dudes-meet-reality?source=yahoo

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 19:40:43

‘At the end of the first quarter the firm owned 4,594 single-family residential properties. The thing is, just 2,413 of those properties were leased. It’s hard to make your numbers with a 53% occupancy rate.’

Get real. If they have a 47% vacancy rate, their rents most likely are too high. They should break out their Econ 101 textbook and review the elasticity condition for profit maximization. In short, if a 1% rent reduction resulted in a greater than 1% increase in occupancy, they would do better by reducing their rents.

Still better would be to keep the current contractually agreed rents on FR’s* in place, while offer more attractive rents for new tentants, perhaps in the form of a sign-on discount so they can claim they didn’t reduce rents for new renters. Taking this course would yield the full value of new rental payments net of occupancy costs not borne by the renters. I fail to see how increasing the number of occupied units at rents which pencil out relative to costs wouldn’t pencil out for the owners, unless they foresee a big spike in rents which will apply to current vacancies going forward. Given all the greater fools who rushed out to snatch up rental properties in recent years, it is hard to imagine this, but perhaps with the help of the Fed’s housing reflation program, it could happen.

* FR = f’d renter

 
 
Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 12:05:40

thanks for the insight ,Tax!
——————-
Two Of America’s Biggest Homebuilders Are Tanking After Reporting Earnings

D.R. Horton CEO Donald Tomnitz said there was no question that interest rates affected sales, citing higher mortgage rates as a cause for increased cancellations.

Tomnitz said traffic count has slowed since the rise in rates, but that buyers should return as rates moderate.

However, he was “disappointed” that rates rose so “violently,” and asserted that homebuyers were “shocked and disturbed” by the spike in rates.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/homebuilders-slammed-after-earnings-2013-7#ixzz2a5NKdrb4
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/homebuilders-slammed-after-earnings-2013-7#ixzz2a5LSOABu

Comment by kmo722
2013-07-25 13:08:02

as I’ve posted before.. the cartel likes to keep the focus on the interest rates vice the product and the price of the product their pumping.. sadly, their strategy works for most..

 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-07-25 08:23:30

“‘If I could have gotten a 30-year fixed at the interest rate I’m getting the ARM for, I would have felt a lot more comfortable,’ said Lim. ‘But I’m hoping to refinance in five years or less. And we’ll be in the house for about 10 years so we could also sell. Hopefully prices have bottomed, so we won’t be underwater.’”

A lot of hope in that paragraph. I’d love to see a follow up in 5 years to see how it works out.

Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 09:26:06

5 years! I’ll give him until 2015 at the most being as though rates are going to go up, up, up

Fed ‘taper’ forecast for September

NEW YORK — US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will trim the Fed’s monthly bond buying in September to $65bn from the current pace of $85bn, according to a growing number of economists.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/world/americas/2013/07/24/fed-taper-forecast-for-september

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 19:43:03

A closely-watched pot never boils over.

 
 
 
Comment by lfc
2013-07-25 09:26:42

$1.6 million spent on a home is an entry level market?????? Say what?

How? When? Why? WTF?????

Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 09:59:05

That’s the price you pay for the “privilege” of living in Palo Alto

Yes, it’s insane.

Comment by lfc
2013-07-25 10:48:08

http://californiawatch.org/dailyreport/professors-earn-far-more-stanford-university-california-9843

Even an average Professor at Stanford could only afford half of that $1.6 mil. Where is the money coming from? Far East Asia?

Nuts….

Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-07-25 11:06:32

That 80 billion a month the federal reserve is dropping from helicopters.

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Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 12:34:26

From what I’m hearing through the grapevine, it’s people whose equity in startups is paying off. So if you’re lucky and the startup you work is sold to some big player, then you can afford to pay the outrageous prices, and if not … you continue with your current arrangement.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2013-07-25 12:50:01

And if you are an employee of Google, your options were repriced at the bottom (about $300 per share), with the stock now at $900. Any employee who was already there in 2008/2009 is feeling pretty good right now.

And if you are an employee of Facebook, you are also feeling pretty good.

And if you have been an employee of Apple for many years, you are feeling pretty good.

Of course, being part of a small team that sells to one of these guys is also excellent, but there are many thousands of employees who are with big companies who are also doing quite well.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-07-25 19:48:21

“From what I’m hearing through the grapevine, it’s people whose equity in startups is paying off.”

That’s what I heard about Coastal California home prices in the early 2000s, right up until the crash in 2006-2007.

This is the first time I’ve heard this since.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-07-25 11:08:37

Not just that, but these homes are at the old Palo Alto Bowl site (lots of memories of disco bowl and cheap beers there).

This is NOT prime PA real estate–it’s about 4 miles away from University Ave., and right on El Camino.

$1.6MM is a shocking number.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-07-25 16:00:26

From the website on the property:

“Due to a surge of demand, we are having another release this weekend. Hurry in to select your favorite home before it is too late! 4 Bedroom Duet & Single Family Homes in Palo Alto starting in the mid-$1,000,000s. 1.5% BROKER FEE! Unbeatable Location. Stunning Architecture. Gorgeous Interiors. For more info, call 877-332-0783.”

In total, they have 26 homes to sell (some of which have a shared wall).

The first weekend had 350 people tour, and 4 homes sold.

At $1.5MM, these DO NOT work as a rental, and so I very seriously doubt many of the 350 were investors. I’m sure many were bored on a weekend, with no intention of buying.

Madness…I seriously doubt they will have problems selling 26.

 
 
 
Comment by Amazed415
2013-07-25 11:12:45

Please pass more kool aid to Mr. Thornberg:

Rapidly rising Marin home prices won’t crash and burn, experts say
By Janis Mara/Marin Independent Journal

As bidding wars rage, investors snap up houses and prices jump 27 percent over those of last June, some worry a new real estate bubble is forming in Marin and the Bay Area — though experts say there’s no problem yet.

“We’re not in a bubble,” said Los Angeles-based Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, adding, “In two years, I may be reversing my tune. I’m in a ‘wait and see’ mode.”

Thornberg was one of the first economists to predict the 2007 housing crash. He founded Beacon Economics in 2007 and also worked as chief economic advisor to the state controller’s office from 2008 to 2012.

While the soaring prices and multiple offers on houses are reminiscent of the boom times from 2002 to 2004,there are big differences between then and now, Thornberg said. “When I was talking bubble in 2004, I was referring not so much to the fact that prices were rising rapidly,” the economist said. “Rising prices are an indication of a bubble, but not a definition of a bubble.”

http://tinyurl.com/phmec7f

Hmmm. WIth rising unemployment and an increase in NODs? First time homebuyers priced out of their local markets by investors? HGTV full of shows on flipping and buying to rent? Nope. Not a bubble at all.

Comment by Dale
2013-07-25 12:08:23

What does the “G” in HGTV stand for? You are right. Every time I flip to that channel it is about house flipping or renovate and rent…..I miss the old gardening shows.

Comment by In Colorado
2013-07-25 12:35:26

Gardening is what your illegal does.

Comment by travanx
2013-07-25 16:02:49

I call those guys lawn mower people, because they don’t know how to garden or do anything related to taking care of a yard.

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Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-07-25 12:59:04

What does the “G” in HGTV stand for?

“Gouge”?

I miss the gardening shows too. Now the closest that HGTV comes to gardening is the landscaping shows where they come in with a backhoe and a bulldozer. Have never used either of those in my own garden. ;)

 
 
 
Comment by norcaltenant
2013-07-25 13:56:24

Sacramento County filed a major lawsuit today against some of the world’s largest banks, accusing them of manipulating an influential interest rate to gain profits at the county’s expense.

The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Sacramento, accuses Bank of America, Barclays, JPMorgan Chase and a host of others of manipulating the interest rate known as Libor - the London Interbank Offered Rate.

Libor is used to set interest rates all over the world.

The lawsuit doesn’t spell out how much the county was allegedly damaged by the Libor manipulation, which took place over several years.

Sacramento County became the 15th government agency in California to file suit over Libor this year. Other plaintiffs include the University of California system, the cities of Richmond and Riverside, and an association covering San Diego County and 18 of its cities, said Nanci Nishimura of Bay Area law firm Cotchett Pitre & McCarthy. The Cotchett firm has filed all the lawsuits.

Nishimura called the Libor litigation “a case of enormous magnitude.”

In a typical instance cited in the latest lawsuit, Sacramento County entered into a so-called “interest rate swap” with several banks, including Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America. In effect, the county was loaning money to those banks on a short-term basis, at a rate tied to Libor. Because Libor was artificially supressed, the county got less money, Nishimura said.

“When Libor was supressed, they were cheated,” she said.

Read more here: http://www.modbee.com/2013/07/23/2821760/sacramento-county-sues-worlds.html#storylink=cpy

 
Comment by Bubbabear
2013-07-25 17:35:34

Sorry, Mom and Dad: The Kids Aren’t Moving Out Yet..;

Chief Economist at Trulia TRLA +0.97% takes a close look at the most important measure of the housing recovery: household formation. The latest population data show that young adults are still living with their parents — even if they have jobs.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/trulia/2013/07/23/kids-arent-moving-out-yet/

 
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