Bits Bucket for July 31, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Current resale housing prices are inflated 50% higher than the cost to build a new one. Why buy a used house when you can build a new one for 33% less?
‘metro denver home prices reached a milestone in may, climbing to an all-time high on a closely watched index of nationwide home prices.’
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_23759213/denver-home-prices-reach-an-all-time-high
“The rental market just might be the star of today’s Census housing data.
Renting used to be just a temporary stop before achieving the American Dream: Ownership. But the housing crash upended that.
This has landlords jubilant.
Americans will likely remain renters for longer than previous generations who viewed homeownership as the ultimate symbol of success.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2013/07/30/landlords-see-silver-lining-in-lower-homeownership-rate/
ohhhh yeah
In our area they’re building apartment buildings like crazy. Most of the asking prices will be above the rent that the younger people can pay. The job market isn’t here to support it.
Everyone will spend all their money on rent, buy no consumer goods and then the consumer goods companies will suffer. Eventually it will spiral down to nothing I’d imagine.
Just interviewed in Seattle for a job in DC. Didn’t get it
Still going to look for opportunities in Northern Va. It’s expensive but at least there are tech jobs.
well if they could find somewhere to build in CA u could test that theory.
Very hard to find buildable lots in desirable areas. most of the larger parcels of land are too exspensive for mom an pop and the corporation snap them up.
Then you have permits and fees up the whazoo.
“desirable areas” LOLZ
I dont think your familiar with the golden state are you? You just think its a bed of roses out here like all the other tourists who never get off the freeway in some of the ghettos here. people would love to build but they cant find a lot in a nice area where its not crime infested.
“people would love to build”
LOLZ
azdude
We live in So Ca and land IS extremely expensive in prime areas within reasonable commute times. We wanted to buy a lot and build a one-story Craftsman w/ a wrap around porch. It was nearly impossible to find a lot (under 1/2M), let alone build our style home on it. You’re right about land prices. Lancaster/Palmdale isn’t our flavor.
(I envy ahansen for her special place away from people.)
We settled for a 1960’s one-story May Cliff designed Ca rancher. Lots of glass to see the trees, moon and stars. 3 French Door Sliders ran us $10K. The interior temperature went down 15-20+ degrees.
Land and Building Costs “ain’t” cheap in Ca.
.
Hey Donkey…. “building costs” are the same irrespective of location.
What are your losses so far?
So far in my part of O.C. it’s got small town feel. I got my new apartment but haven’t moved in yet. From what I see, it’s more laid back than in my L.A. digs.
Everyone Just ignore him…Maybe he will go away…
That’s right ignore me because we’re not going anywhere….
Waaah-Waaah-Waaah-Waaaah Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah (Sad Trombone noise)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100927223
Rates keep mortgage applicants away for 7th straight week
“Applications for U.S. home mortgages decreased last week with potential buyers shying away from the market as rates held steady just below their two-year highs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, declined 3.7 percent in the week ended July 26. It was the seventh week in a row the index has been lower.
The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 3.4 percent…”
RAL living rent free in skulls, yes we know.
Rates keep mortgage applicants away for 7th straight week
Put one week in front of the other!!!!
And soon sales will fall through the floor….
The drop in mortgage apps has little to do with sales. The drop is a drop in refi’s, as almost everyone has already refi’d.
Landlords are not only overjoyed with people not buying now, but they also realize that if you can’t buy when you’re young, you may not be able to buy when you’re older. Result: millions of 65-year-olds with no paid-off house and no income to pay a mortgage are stuck renting during their “golden” years. So how do they pay the rent? Instead of lowering prices to what the people can pay, just get the bleeding heart liberals to lobby government to subsidize the rent for the elderly.
Get the government partially subsidize your low employees’ salary via food stamps/medicaid. See: Wal-Mart, etc.
Get the government to partially subsidize your shiny new sports complex and engineering lab via student loans. See: post-secondary education.
Get the government to partially subsidize your high insurance premiums. See: Obamacare exchanges.
Get the government to partially subsidize your high rent for the elderly. See: Landlords.
Get the government to partially subsidize your high house prices via low rates or down payment assistance. See: Originators, banks, flippers, etc.
Hate on the gov with your mouth while taking gov money with your greedy hands. It’s the American way.
[note that these are, as always, all "needs" industries.]
And yes, I realize this sounds exactly like “everything was fine until the government got involved.” Well, everything was NOT fine. There were a lot of poor people standing in bread lines, living in destitution, renting 3 families to a tenement, or unable to afford basic health care. Gov got involved to help them.
The subtle difference is that now companies are taking advantage of the knowledge that gov WILL get involved… by raising prices accordingly and waiting for their handout. The only way gov could “teach them a lesson” is to cut all the subsidies, which would result in a huge drop in the standard of living for the ~85% or so. It’s a philosophical dilemma. Do you let them rob the bank, or do you kill the hostages?
“we’re not going anywhere…”
Funny you should put it that way.
Guess again Donkey
“Purchase loan applications down for 4th time in 5 weeks”
http://www.inman.com/wire/apps-for-purchase-loans-drop-for-4th-time-in-5-weeks/
HEE HAW!
The Dark Side of Rising Home Prices
“I guess I don’t buy your premise, its a pretty unlikely possibility, we have never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis ” Ben Bernanke July 2005 responding to a question that housing prices might come down.
http://smaulgld.com/the-dark-side-of-rising-home-prices/
“Mostly a localized problem and something that’s not going to affect the nationwide economy.”
…the whole article has everything to do with the nationwide economy
…and that SHILL comment has everything to do with grasping for straws
You’re useless
Eddie Luk and Giselle Chan
Friday, July 26, 2013
A wealthy rural property owner caused outrage yesterday when he said people aged 40 who still don’t own land or homes are useless.
The Standard
The 19th century is still trying to make a comeback.
And it’s making steady headway.
Thanks to global progressives.
You mean the Billionaires. If they had their way, they would be the only ones allowed to vote.
If they had their way, they would be the only ones allowed to vote.
Nah—it’s critical to stability that they maintain the illusion that the plebes have a say.
No sufferage in China or Hong Kong so only a moderate illusion of having a say.
Global Progressives? In East Asia?
When president Clinton had this press conference I believed him.
He lied and I bought the lie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBe_guezGGc
How did I get tricked, but other people did not fall for it?
What did they know that I didn’t know?
What a fool believes he sees.
We don’t see things as they are, we see things as we are.
No wise man has the power to reason away
What seems … to be
Is always better than nothing
thanks for writing the lyrics, he always sounded like he was singing with a pound of mashed potatoes in his mouth.
thats racists
Ya mo be there
missing link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7Vo_t7zbeQ
‘I was not a-doin’ HER, she was a-doin’ ME, therefore- technically- I did NOT lie, dependin’ upon whut your definition of “is”, is…’
And can’t we all just be exceptionally proud of THAT sterling example of honesty, integrity, ethics and moral courage in our ‘leader’ at that time. Obama is, unfortunately, no different. He- like pretty much all sociopathic politicians- is a treacherous, self-obsessed, compulsive liar with squishy ethics who has never held a real job in his life.
It looks like he is also aggressively re-writing his history while he has the power to do so. Very Stalinesque…
“Obama Removes Promise to Protect Whistleblowers From Old Campaign Website”
http://www.policymic.com/articles/57017/obama-removes-promise-to-protect-whistleblowers-from-old-campaign-website
If you question the actions of Bathhouse Barry the Chicago Jesus, you are a racist.
At least have the courtesy to use less outdated talking points.
Seriously? After Gennifer Flowers, Paula Whatever-her-name-was, and all the years of “horn-dog” rumors, you believed him?
On the other hand, many of us didn’t believe him and also gave zero fuques.
i am sure i am screwing up posting the link for this………
The city of Richmond, California, said on Tuesday it will use its power of eminent domain, if necessary, to seize “underwater” mortgage loans to keep its residents in their homes, becoming the first U.S. municipality to adopt such an approach.
The northern California city, long plagued by poverty and crime, sent notice to the holders of more than 620 underwater home mortgages in the city, asking them to sell the loans to the city. It would buy the mortgages for 80 percent of the fair value of the homes, write them down and help the homeowners refinance their mortgages.
http://news.yahoo.com/california-city-becomes-first-adopt-eminent-domain-plan-223431473.html
LOL…Wait until Richmond see’s the legal bill on this one…
what a rathole the bay area is so crime ridden and full of druggies. Certainly isnt all glitz and glamour.
That’s just… bizarre.
You know, I’m looking at this eminent domain of mortgages action, and while it doesn’t seem fair, none of the bailouts have been fair. The bailouts were examples of privatizing the profits and socializing the losses. With Wall Street keeping the profits and the populace taking the losses (loss of jobs, low interest rates, massive debt, etc). With eminent domain however, at least it’s the people making out like bandits and Wall Street taking the losses.
Of course, Wall Street seems likes a titanic machine, controlling world politicians like the Wizard of Oz. They won’t take this insult kindly. But in an economic world where justice is a joke and fairness is a punchline, it would be nice to see the joke be on Wall Street for once, instead of on the citizenry.
With eminent domain however, at least it’s the people making out like bandits and Wall Street taking the losses.
That’s why I like it.
Oh, and let me guess, Wall Street will threaten to pull down the temple (again) if they stand to lose even a penny of profit due to this action.
IMHO it’s more pathological than psychological.
Yet another echo bubble shoeshine boy moment: Economists are once again cheer-leading a rate of home price appreciation which appears to set the housing market up for another crash.
Housing market heats up — and it’s just getting started
John W. Schoen CNBC
17 hours ago
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
A sold sign is posted in front of a home for sale on July 2, 2013 in San Anselmo, Calif. California’s housing market is heating up, as are markets in Las Vegas and Phoenix, a survey showed Tuesday.
If you tried to buy a home in Phoenix a year ago, you probably would have been able to land it for well under the asking price.
Those days are gone. In a city that was hit hard after the housing bubble burst in 2007, you’re more likely to encounter a bidding war for that split-level ranch on the cul-de-sac you had your eye on.
Prices have leapt 20 percent in the last year in Phoenix. Real estate agent Tucker Blaylock says they will keep rising as long as interest rates remain near historic lows, thanks to the Federal Reserve.
“You can borrow money so cheap it’s really pushing prices up,” he said. “A year or two ago, a buyer could bid 20- or 30-thousand under the list price and have a shot at getting it. Now sellers want list, or in some cases they get multiple offers and it’ll go above list price.”
It’s not just Phoenix. The list of the hottest markets reads like the housing boom of the mid-2000s. In the past 12 months home prices are up 19 percent in Las Vegas. California hot spots include San Francisco (up 25 percent), San Diego (up 17 percent) and Los Angeles (up 19 percent.)
Nationwide, that momentum is dragging potential buyers off the fence, which is in turn feeding the higher prices, the experts say. Despite rising mortgage rates, demand for homes is surging with little sign of the bubble bursting anytime soon.
The latest monthly data from the widely followed Case-Shiller index showed home prices in May jumped 12.2 percent in the past year — the biggest yearly jump since March 2006 — supporting economists’ views that the housing sector is one of the brightest spots for the economy.
In a handful of metro areas, housing is looking downright “bubbly,” according to Robert Shiller, co-founder of the index. “The cities that bubbled in the past are bubbling again,” he told CNBC. “To me, it’s seems partly psychological. They’ve seen it before and they’re ready for it again.”
…
“with little sign of the bubble bursting anytime soon.”
And the author flat out calls it a bubble, as though it’s self-evident.
Sure, when sociopaths and druggies are running the show.
cocaine’s a hell’uva drug.
Just ask Hollywood! (or Wall St)
‘hell naw u could just use some robitussin nd soda to make some fire ass lean’ — trayvon martin, son of president barack obama
Any news on the taper timing front?
Key Fed question on tapering remains timing
Adam Shell, USA TODAY 8:19 p.m. EDT July 30, 2013
Investors know that a phasing out of the Fed’s monthly bond purchases is inevitable. What they don’t know is when that will begin.
(Photo: Jack Gruber, USA TODAY)
Story Highlights
- Federal Reserve ends 2-day meeting Wednesday with policy statement
- Wall Street seeks clues as to when Fed will start dialing back bond-buying program
- Stocks and bonds have traded erratically since Fed first hinted of tapering in late May
Investors are bracing for the latest round of Wall Street’s favorite guessing game: “Fed tapering: Will they or won’t they?”
The stock market has been on Fed Watch and has suffered a few scary drops, or “Taper Tantrums,” ever since May 22. That was the day the Federal Reserve hinted for the first time in its meeting minutes that the process of cutting back on its market-friendly bond-buying program, quantitative easing, or QE, could get underway later this year.
…
July 31, 2013, 8:50 a.m. EDT
Private sector adds 200,000 jobs in July
Gains stronger than expected as all sizes of companies add jobs
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employers added a stronger-than-expected 200,000 jobs in July, Automatic Data Processing Inc. said Wednesday, beating economists’ expectations as businesses of all sizes gained jobs in the month.
Analysts were expecting an increase of 185,000 private jobs in July, compared to an original June estimate of 188,000 jobs gained.
ADP on Wednesday revised its June figure upward by 10,000 to 198,000.
…
As usual, there is no breakdown in
The types of jobs
The median and average pay
part time vs. full time
etc.
there will be no tapering, more QE as the effect of the last dose wears off.
I find it interesting that they describe it as an $85 Billion a month program.
Doesn’t $85 Billion a month sound much less than $1 Trillion per year? I mean, c’mon, it’s only $85 billion….
Is this the Institutional version of how-much-a-month?
It’s not even $3B a day … it’s chump change! That’s just 100,000 $30,000 cars each day!
Hope and Change
‘health officials in iowa and nebraska on tuesday identified prepackaged salad mix as the source of a severe stomach bug that sickened hundreds of people in both states, but federal authorities said it’s not clear whether cyclospora outbreaks elsewhere in the u.s. are also linked to that produce.
cyclospora illnesses are spread when people ingest food or water contaminated with feces.’
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_23760890/salad-pegged-source-neb-cyclospora-outbreak
I’m in neither of those states and I got hit with this.
Yes, it’s as bad as they say it is.
And I didn’t get it from packaged salad.
“as bad as they say it is”
Details?
The first reports last week said explosive diarrhea for weeks. Extreme fatigue. Full recovery anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months. Really bad gas every day.
Took me 4 weeks.
The entire month of July a very non-productive, non-enjoyable month for me.
I remember coming down with what I think was food poisoning a few years ago.
It was extremely uncomfortable for about a day and a half and I recall thinking, “the good thing about food poisoning is that it’s not fatal. the bad thing about food poisoning is that it’s not fatal”. I felt so bad that I wanted to die (not really, but you get the gist).
Hope you’re feeling better.
Do you know what you got it from, if I may ask?
At this time, I’m now almost certain it was from lettuce on a fast food burger.
Turd salad.
I commented on the 2016 JEB! vs Hill match-up, and when I gave it some thought later, it occurred to me that perhaps this wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, as it could provide the main chance for a third party to make an impact.
I dunno considering how dumb kids are today would they even know that a 3rd party could run in an election?
You are too optimistic. The sheeple and the so called smart ones will still vote for their home team.
dude…i saw a poll on the TV last night that showed 40% of NY eligible voters still support wiener…i am sure the same thing was true with that republican douche in south carolina.
this country is toast.
I wonder what % of the voters enjoy sexting?
Of millenials probably 90%+.
Could it be because people prefer hetero (pervert nonetheless) to a homo?
I hope he wins. Weiner, Spitzer, Filner and of course Clinton are my heroes.
It’s not that people like Weiner or support him. People hate Christine Quinn (who will win and be the next mayor) and there are a number of reasons for that.
It’s also not the case that people don’t like Bloomberg or don’t think he’s done a fabulous job as mayor. He’s been great. But people resent him for seeking the 3rd term which not even Giuliani did after 9/11.
I live in New York City and I’m voting for Anthony Weiner.
When you coming back to Hollywood, Amanda?
Me love you long time..
I’m staying in New York.
Good for you! New York needs more ‘normal’ folks living there to keep the idiots in check. While you’re there, give the Weiner a squeeze for me. Oh and toss me my bong, will you?
I am going back to Los Angeles to film the sequel to “Sydney White” but I’m not moving back there permanently. New York is my home now.
“It’s also not the case that people don’t like Bloomberg or don’t think he’s done a fabulous job as mayor. He’s been great.”
Doucheberg has been anything but great, he is the ultimate bitter authoritarian…but thanks for the laugh.
I hope Weiner wins also, and not just for the puns. I would point to him as an example of what they are all like. He just got caught and revealed his true colors then. While they may not all have sex issues, just like Weiner, they are all power hungry, reality blind members of an elite club that you aren’t a member of. If that power is threatened they will lie to your face, cheat, steal, rob, whatever to maintain that power, all the while convincing themselves it is for the betterment of the people. DISGUSTING.
And there is also the bonus negative example of the excellent role modeling provided by Hillary to Huma!
It’s going to disappoint you when Weiner finishes in 4th or 5th place, if he even stays in the race.
Spitzer might win the Comptroller race though. Spitzer is more shrewd and qualified than Weiner would ever be in 5 lifetimes. I wonder if people will understand this. I think a lot of dumbs probably think Spitzer was just some rando AG as opposed to being a crazy effective one. It’s kind of the same with Chris Christie, people would talk about him being heavy or that he hung out with Obama, it’s like they forget that he’s actually very competent and has a strong track record unlike the hacks that primary voters seem to like.
Pretty much.
There’s an old saying: “Those who seek power are usually the least deserving of it.”
He’s been great.
How so?
Weiner is too impulsive or stupid to keep pics of his boner out of the media. He is a good politician but probably would do better in porn instead.
This was the “Save Your Marriage” tour. While he’s got a rockin bod, I’m sure there are lot of “I told you so’s” to Huma. She probably married him because he’s got the rockin bod, was a congress critter and seemed suitably perverted. Perviness however is, like so much else in life, on a bell curve. Too little or too much perviness is bad. There’s an optimal level of perviness. But Weiner clearly is falling in the “too much” range.
Maybe she’ll stay with him for the bod and perviness. But social status is very important to the elites too. Who knows. Plus they’ve got a kid, and the elites tend to (want to) be high investment parents so she’ll need help raising it.
same with Chris Christie, people would talk about him being heavy or that he hung out with Obama, it’s like they forget that he’s actually very competent and has a strong track record unlike the hacks that primary voters seem to like.
</i?
Hemant Lakhani?
The elites tend to let others raise their kids because they are too busy ruling the world.
Reason number 452 why we shouldn’t let them make policy.
Perviness however is, like so much else in life, on a bell curve. Too little or too much perviness is bad. There’s an optimal level of perviness.
Comment of the month.
I hear “voting for a 3rd party is throwing your vote away” about as often as I hear “renting is throwing your money away”.
this:
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/073013-665705-income-gap-grew-sharply-under-obama.htm
and this:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-top-tax-rate-should-be-28-corporations-40-small-business_742312.html
looking out for the little guy.
Forward
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2013/05/09/the-insiders-the-obama-economy-has-delivered-for-the-1-percent/
The income has been growing sharply for the last 30 years.
Income gap
The income has been growing sharply for the last 30 years.
You’ve been saying that here for 5yrs—shouldn’t it be 35yrs now?
My bad.
It started roughly in the 1980s, but there were hints of it beginning the very late 1970s, so it’s hard to pin down.
But sure, 35 years, beginning in 1978.
I wish I could remember which chart (from the Fed) convinced me that it really started 40yrs ago…
Romney certainly would have put a stop to this madness!
romney’s rehetoric was better than obama’s actions…but talk is cheap.
So was Obama’s, for that matter.
top individual income tax rate, paid by many small businesses, to 39.6 percent.
That “top rate” applies to small business owners who make over $450K in salary per year, likely an “S” corp hedge funds.
Not exactly the “little guy” doing your dry cleaning.
More class warfare from the Kenyan-In-Chief:
“Many low-paid workers feel their employers have put an invisible ceiling on their wages, with little prospect of ever making more than $10 or $11 an hour, as corporations have focused on keeping wages competitive and maximizing profits to benefit shareholders. The richest Americans have benefited mightily from from corporate America’s record profits and the stock market’s repeated highs.”
Instead of hating on the Producers, those loosers should have majored in STEM.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/28/sunday-review/fighting-back-against-wretched-wages.html?pagewanted=all
Obama: Top Tax Rate Should Be 28% for Corporations, 40% for Small Business
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-top-tax-rate-should-be-28-corporations-40-small-business_742312.html
“Many low-paid workers feel their employers have put an invisible ceiling on their wages, with little prospect of ever making more than $10 or $11 an hour, as corporations have focused on keeping wages competitive and maximizing profits to benefit shareholders.”
Not shareholders returns. Executive pay.
Meanwhile, who are they going to sell to? That’s the question they can’t answer, and the real cause of all the “uncertainty.”
many americans are addicted to junk food. the triple rush of fat and salt and sugar hit the same dopamine receptors that heroin does. if they can’t afford big macs they’ll just eat mcdoubles instead.
So does running or exercise, why aren’t they addicted to that?
Frankly I prefer a bag of cheetos and a can of coke.
I made the extra small bedroom in my new home I bought into a yoga room. I couldn’t do that when I was renting.
… for breakfast.
“Frankly I prefer a bag of cheetos and a can of coke.”
Oh, do I ever loves me a Co’cola. I purposely only drink it as a treat when I have a meal out, I never purchase any to bring home, otherwise I’d end up a really bad addict and a tubbalard.
Gawd I LOVE that stuff. It’s so bad, I can’t even drink Pepsi as a substitute and won’t eat at a place that serves Pepsi instead of Coke.
WTF is pepsi? Oh…. that putrid counterfeit.
Anyways….. you want heaven? Get the coke in the glass bottles bottled in Mexico. Sugar, no corn syrup. It tastes so good I nearly pass out.
you want heaven? Get the coke in the glass bottles bottled in Mexico. Sugar, no corn syrup. It tastes so good I nearly pass out.
Man, you are easy to please.
I recently mostly stopped drinking soda. Now all of a sudden I can get to bed at a normal time.
For exercise I’m planning to pick up a Dance Dance Revolution arcade machine. I figure it will be like a tread mill.
That sort of makes me worst apartment neighbor ever.
It tastes so good I nearly pass out.
That line made me wonder whether HA was combining auto-asphyxiation with his real-sugar Coca-cola…
Different strokes…
Instead of hating on the Producers, those loosers should have majored in STEM.
Except that we STEM heads are also experiencing stagnant wages and salary freezes, even when out employers are making record profits.
You’re lying. The best career advice anyone could ever hope to get is from the online reader comments on Wall Street Journal articles. Everyone there who majored in STEM is enjoying riches beyond their dreams.
And they get put out to pasture when they turn 40.
More Hope and Change
“U.S. households are planning to shell out an average of 7.8 percent less for this year’s back-to-school shopping season because of the bumpy economic recovery, the National Retail Federation says.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/kids-iphone-hopes-dashed-as-americans-pare-school-spend.html
Yes We Can!
http://washingtonexaminer.com/exography-many-disability-recipients-admit-they-could-work/article/2533626
the house my buddy offered on sold for $ 40k over asking.
list price $ 540k
sale price $ 580K
identical house and yard 2 houses down sold for $ 480K in may, 2013.
infrackingsanity in northern va.
The greater fools are swarming again.
before it was free no doc money…what is it now? just the bernanke juice?
yep low interest rates have created another frenzy.
Waaah-Waaah-Waaah-Waaaah Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah (Sad Trombone noise)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100927223
Rates keep mortgage applicants away for 7th straight week
“Applications for U.S. home mortgages decreased last week with potential buyers shying away from the market as rates held steady just below their two-year highs.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, declined 3.7 percent in the week ended July 26. It was the seventh week in a row the index has been lower.
The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, fell 3.4 percent…”
I don’t know. The Bernanke juice has been around longer than the current frenzy. I nominate this as the weekend topic: last time it was free no doc money, what is driving it now?
My guess is that it is kind of a false question because it assumes that now is similar, when in reality there isn’t the same volume and it is all something of a statistical “trick” or anomaly involving median price and low volume that is being reported as evidence of something it isn’t. This then draws in the fools and flippers who think the price increases of 20+% a year are sustainable.
Yes, prices went up in my area from a pretty low bottom from 2010 to early to mid 2012. This was due to cash buyers or hedge funds getting in to places that cash flowed as rentals from those low bottoms. This drove up medians bit by bit to where they are now, higher but not at a good place for continuing to buy for a cashflow rental. That model is now for the most part GONE. But the gains being reported are past gains to median price, rear view mirror increases, being used to convince people the same increases will continue while ignoring that the numbers matter and the game changes with increasing price points.
Now the market is not based on demand from the cash investors, not backed by families actually wanting to buy, but based on speculators and flippers who want to tap into what they think will be a chance to snap up some easy equity if the trend continues. And supply is increasing because of the rise in median price, so people who wanted to get out but couldn’t are now thinking they can and at a profit. I’ve seen a lot of these houses lately with price reductions.
What I think we are seeing is the REIC media chery picking examples to fit the narrative and ignoring anything that doesn’t fit the story of rising prices. It’s a jalopy with a sweet paint job and a little chrome. Just don’t look under the hood.
There are already reports of sales slowing down. Once price begins to drop again it will be psychologically DEVASTATING. Statistics will be manipulated to the breaking point to avoid reporting a price drop again. I think they can stretch that rubber band for another 6 months to a year before the stats catch up with them again on the flipside.
Note, this is in my area which was one of the first to drop and then rebound up, but I think the same dynamic is playing out in other areas on a later timeframe.
My answer is that sentiment has shifted (as it does in real estate cycles), and the Bernanke Juice combined with very little new construction, and too many would-be underwater sellers is giving rocket fuel what would otherwise be a much slower rise off the cyclical trough.
My answer is that the 2nd leg down in the Great RE Bubble Collapse is well underway. Fundamentals have reasserted themselves (as they ALWAYS will) and the most important fundamental is affordability. The financial, legal and economic contortions that the government went through to inject trillions of dollars into housing have only postponed the inevitable, not stopped it. Yes, credit requirements have been eased. Yes, government entities now ‘guarantee’ most mortgages, but the most important aspect of affordability is PRICE. HOW MUCH must be financed? HOW MUCH must be insured? HOW MUCH will annual taxes (initially) be based upon my grossly inflated house price. THIS is the crux of ‘affordability’ and affordability is the key to STABILITY in housing. Just like in Bubble 1.0, they made it easier to qualify for the DEBT, but they didn’t make it any more feasible for people to PAY the debt. Debts are simply contracts and contracts are violated hundreds of times daily. Jobs are scarce and wages are decreasing as commodity prices rise, making any house payment even more difficult to afford. That which cannot possibly be paid back, will not be paid back. The blissfully simple reality is, that it is ALL about the price. But those who cling to magical thinking- both in and out of powerful positions- don’t want to acknowledge that truth. They insist that THIS time is different than every other case throughout history because THEY are involved. They are certain that ‘it will be OK for THEM’, because they NEED it to be OK.
And so the charade must be played out. Ever-larger doses of QE have lesser benefit and shorter half lives. Interest rates climb and mortgage applications decrease. Hedge funds buy houses in huge blocks- overpaying for many of them- and yet half of them sit unoccupied. The available housing stock becomes concentrated in the hands of a few large players, so that one man’s decision can now move entire markets and have vast repercussions for millions of people. People who bought with cash are free to panic and drop their price to whatever they want, unencumbered by what any lending institution is owed.
A tremendous boobytrap has been created and the trigger is set. Any inadvertent shock could set it off. When prices decline enough and/or some investment fund perceives a better opportunity and wants to free-up capital, they will start liquidating inventory. When that signal is perceived, the market will follow and prices will not be ’sticky’ going down. He who panics and sells first, panics best. New comps and new rules will be created overnight. People will rejoice and plant Joshua Trees as a symbol of victory and the voice of the FB will again be heard in the land…
i think it’s mostly on the high end.
bernanke is juicing equities and people are experiencing that “wealth effect”. couple that with the sheeple fear of rising rates…and you get “froth” in the higher end…metropolitan housing markets.
Well, what exactly is driving it remains to be seen. Bernanke and government programs are a big part of it. It’s certainly not rising wages: http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html
Today, the government guarantees (at least) 9 out of 10 mortgages. The rate has been continuously increasing. So that encourages the generation of bad debt and large loans.
(If you google “percentage of mortgages backed by government”, you’ll get some estimates).
Ultimately, this time around, the government is directly driving it, buying or insuring most of the mortgage market. Plus policies which limit foreclosure or only allow foreclosures to be purchased by hedge funds.
Resurgent stupidity and greed.
Which makes the one inevitable return to early 1990s prices all the more painful.
the economy sure couldn’t last long without another housing bubble could it?
And imagine how ugly the coming collapse will be.
i am now being told (again) that i am crazy…nuts…don’t know the markets or the economy. this time it’s different.
The massive excess housing inventory is still there… still growing… still sitting…. Still weighing on the economy. Tens of millions of excess, empty and defaulted houses.
obama housing bubble v2.0
Because the measure of a good economy is high housing costs…
the house my buddy offered on sold for $ 40k over asking.
My coworker sold hers for 25K over asking, in just two days, and her realtor told her that it was priced high to begin with. The young pups on the team who are still renting are fretting big time.
After paying large mortgage payments and paying for daycare for multiple kids, many 20-30 somethings I know are broke all the time.
As an adherent to the Bill in Los Angeles lifestyle, rising house prices do not affect me. When Denver gets too crowded and too expensive, I can just leave.
The daycare cost is the real budget buster. My coworkers tell me that it is about $1000 per month per kid.
I’ve been banking about 12k/month for the last year. Makes me feel like daddy Warbucks compared to my peers.
“I’ve been banking about 12k…”/month
Gee, that’s amazing Russ. 1%Russ?
Just found out that my coworker’s 15 year old, 2300 sq foot house in Arvada sold for $370k.
In Arvada. Not Broomfield or Boulder. Not in Highlands Ranch.
In Arvada.
In Colo
And I just found out that she received “love letters” from buyers.
The bubble is going strong in Denver, which is amazing as the job market here is on the weak side.
Yesterday I was browsing Redfin, and I saw this place:
2 E GARFIELD St Tempe, AZ 85281
I placed this address into Google Maps for a street view, and noticed that the second house to the left has been “blocked-out” in the street view. Maybe a judge or movie star?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2702-N-Papago-Dr-Tempe-AZ-85281/7570464_zpid/
Pictures available there.
Looks like a crappy student rental. Pass.
rms
Regarding redfin or Zillow blocking of a SFH, it could be a license for senior care or childcare, or a long term rental. When we were house hunting, and I saw those, I went to the city for clarification. Many were small population assistant living SFHs.
I prefer senior care over kids any day, but it was a deal breaker for us.
It’s Google’s street view; blocked. FWIW, that’s new to me.
the most transparent administration in history
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/governments-secret-order-to-verizon-to-be-unveiled-at-senate-hearing/2013/07/31/233fdd3a-f9cf-11e2-a369-d1954abcb7e3_story.html
Inside a vase of flawless crystal, there is a golden hand, with middle finger extended.
This is transparency.
He who has the gold makes the rules.
Never forget.
only until ‘progressives’ like fdr confiscate it.
He who has the guns can take the gold.
Never forget.
Fortunately for the gold owners, they also own guns.
He who is economically strong can obliterate he who only has guns.
If war was really only about warmaking ability, the Confederacy would’ve won the civil war, Sparta would’ve dominated Europe at some point, etc. etc.
“Guns, Germs & Steel” is a great book, really an eye opener. No serious historian would say that war or military superiority outweighs technological sophistication or the rule of law over a long period of time. At best it results in short, brutal spurts of power.
plus one for jared diamond, just finished reading his ‘the world before yesterday’
“The Ascent of Money” is also very good, by Niall Fergusson is also very good. I’m like 1/2 way through the book, I believe there was a PBS series but it’s very watered down (the book is long and detailed). Fergusson basically talks about how the stock companies evolved to exploit trade with the Far East and New World, how bond markets formed, how certain Euro families became so wealthy, etc. All the way up to student loans and housing bubbles.
#Realtalk from Joe S.
Saw the Documentary and now I’ll pick up the book. Thanks for the one-up. I really like Niall Fergusson. He comes across genuine.
“Fortunately for the gold owners, they also own guns.”
The gold owners hire the dull from fly-over country to hold their weapons and catch the bullets meant for them.
“Housing at current inflated asking prices represents a massive loss. The risk is astronomical.”
No question.
the risk to the taxpayers is astronomical.
“Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much much less tomorrow for many years to come.”
Correct.
taxpayers are backing up these govt loans. get to work so you can support those loans when they go bust!!!!
FHA - insures loans
FANNIE and Freddie - buys loan on secondary market from originators and backstopped by constant bailouts.
USDA- another agency backstopped by taxpayers.
VA- taxpayer cash
Basically 90% of the loans are govt backed. The taxpayer on the hook for losses.
Housing is always a loss. Houses depreciate/i> and the losses to depreciation are magnified by the fact that they cannot be written off as a loss on your tax return.
Aaaaaaaaand its gone.. Warning: Chart porn ahead
Mortgage Applications Plunging At Fastest Rate In 4 Years; Refis Down 57%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-31/mortgage-applications-plunging-fastest-rate-4-years-refis-down-57
“With a number of banks cutting their mortgage departments (Wells Fargo JV and Everbank most recently), it seems the ‘weakness’ in the housing recovery may be more than transitory. For the 11th week of the last 12, mortgage applications fell for the fastest three-month collapse since June 2009. Mortgage activity is now its lowest in two years with refinancing activity down 57% from its recent peak and new purchases have dropped to their lows of the year (down 13% from the highs) and stand exactly at three-year average levels.”
Renting is just throwing money away and paying the landlord’s mortgage. When you buy a home you build equity with every mortgage payment.
“Why buy when you can rent for half the monthly cost?”
Many rentals don’t allow pets. Since I bought my own home now I can have a dog.
“Rent now and buy later for 65% less.”
Correct. Likely 70% less when we’re finally at the bottom.
Many rentals don’t allow you to smoke choom in the lobby or hurl your bong out the window either, but that hasn’t stopped you before. The nice thing about renting is that you maintain your agility. If the house you are renting (or the entire neighborhood) deteriorates to the point where you are no longer comfortable, you can always move with little to no financial loss. Or if you get downsized or your company closes down a branch and you need to relocate or if you find a better location or a more affordable rental- you can always give notice and simply move without the financial burden of a house in a declining market.
On the other hand, your total monthly payment with rent is typically significantly less than a mortgage payment. People are typically encouraged to “reach” when they buy a house because they think their wages will go up and inflation will eat away at the payment. Additionally, there are always maintenance costs to consider as well, which don’t exist with renting.
It used to be that people would rent to build up their net worth, then buy when they had a high enough net worth. Which would then push them deep into the red for the next two to three decades. At the end of which they could once again start building their net worth.
With the housing bubble, the new meme was that “housing was the path to riches” - that houses would always appreciate and they could always sell at a profit. Housing is the path to riches - but only for the bond market, not for the physical asset owner, whose actual place in the scheme of things is to provide an income stream to the bond holders and a logical construct for the bond traders.
well said..
850/month for a 3/2 on 5 wooded acres. I’ll throw that away out of petty cash.
Like we all know and understand……. There’s a globe full of worthless land and 95% of it goes undeveloped.
I build equity with each bank deposit.
“Realtor of the Year was charged with theft”
http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/real-estate-agent-charged-with-theft-1.1527880
Gives new meaning to the word “Stealtors”.
New?
Real Estate Agent Charged in Woman’s Brutal Rape
http://sarasota.patch.com/groups/police-and-fire/p/woman-27–brutally-raped-in-sarasota
Bastard.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/greg-sarajew/7/62a/74a
It says here hes a Stealtor too. Imagine that.
There has never been a better time to rape- or be raped- by your local realtor than right now! Ask you local realtor how!
Never forget about hope and change
————–
A Brief History of American Welfare State
RealClearHistory.com | 05/09/2013 | Brian Vanyo
According to deficit forecasts in President Barack Obama’s latest budget, the national debt will surpass $20 trillion by 2016. If this occurs (and it is almost certain to occur), then Obama will add more to the national debt during his presidency than all prior presidents combined , despite collecting projected record-high tax receipts each year of his last term in office.
The largest expenditure in Obama’s budget — and the largest federal outlay in every budget since 1970 — is an expense item labeled “payments for individuals,” which includes spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment benefits, disability payments, and other federal welfare subsidies. These payments comprised 65 percent of all federal spending in 2012 and are expected to grow to 70 percent in 2016. (By contrast, national defense spending was 19 percent of the federal budget in 2012 and will decrease to only 14 percent in 2016.)
And the recipients of those payments all vote Democrat. And there’s more of them than you. So shut up and get to work and pay your taxes to give the Free Sh*t Army more free sh*t.
How do you figure when red sates have the highest population of people on welfare?
Doesn’t the trillions in bailouts for Wall Street count as welfare?
I guess not.
——————————–
The Moocher Index : States with the Most Welfare recipients, and the least
Who are least dependent on public assistance? Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.
http://www.politisite.com/2011/06/13/the-moocher-index-states-with-the-most-welfare-recipients-and-the-least/#.UfkzmHdGNkM
I suspect those trillionaires aren’t exactly left wing hippies.
>I suspect those trillionaires aren’t exactly left wing hippies.
BA ZINGA!
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in the second quarter, laying a firmer foundation for the rest of the year that could bring the Federal Reserve a step closer to cutting back its monetary stimulus.
Gross domestic product grew at a 1.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, stepping up from the first-quarter’s downwardly revised 1.1 percent expansion pace.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the economy growing at a 1.0 percent pace after a previously reported 1.8 percent advance in the first three months of the year.
Yet China is in trouble because they can’t sustained 7% growth?
We can only DREAM of that kind of growth rate. While riding our high speed trains and sending people into space on our spacecraft.
Oh wait…
Is it pretty much safe to say there isn’t any growth in the the economy without the equity impact from higher home prices?
And accounting gimmicks.
I’d say without accounting gimmicks, period.
“Given the losses that depreciating items like houses are, there is no such thing as ‘equity’.”
You are correct.
sometimes you make no sense at all.
Houses depreciate, ALWAYS.
“Given the losses that depreciating items like houses are, there is no such thing as ‘equity’.”
That’s not true. Why just last night I saw a house in Detroit that has been on the market for 519 days and if they get their asking price and they paid nothing for it they stand to make $1.
For anyone wondering, this is what State U’s are all about these days:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1722523-oregon-football-shows-off-amazing-new-football-performance-center
I mean, holy chr*st on a cracker…
Jeebus. We really are doomed. Imagine if they put as much money and resources into pampering the Math and Science stars at their school….
I’m feeling thirsty for Brawndo now…it has electrolytes.
GO AWAY! I’M ‘BAITIN!
Nice pad for the Quack Attack especially considering they have as many D-1 National Campionships in football as (pick one) Junior College.
The perfect facility for teaching the future of America how to play football.
Only four new homes left in Wellington’s Olympia
by Kim Miller
The grand gated community of Olympia in Wellington announced this week it has just four new homes left for sale as a hot real estate market continues to eat away at new and existing inventory.
Canadian-based Minto Communities, the developer of Olympia, said the homes will be built as part of its Custom Choice program, which is designed to meet homebuyer demand for quicker move-in times without sacrificing personalized design.
Custom Choice homes are built through the drywall stage, allowing buyers to make their own decisions on items such as carpet, tile, kitchen cabinets, countertops and paint colors. The homes will sell for between $500,000 and upwards of $700,000.
“As our community nears its finale, the launch of our Custom Choice Home Program is yet another way Minto responds to our homebuyer needs,” said Steve Svopa, vice president of Minto Communities. “Olympia has always set the pace for other communities to follow.”
Although Olympia suffered with the rest of South Florida through the real estate crash, the community has been on a fast-track to sell out for the past year.
In July 2012, just 77 lots were available for purchase with prices ranging from the $300s to the $700s.
Olympia is located at the crossroads of Forest Hill Boulevard and U.S. 441. Minto bought the land, a former tree nursery, in 2001 for $41 million. The initial purchase was of 1,600 acres, but some land was later sold to another developer and donated to the community.
Buyers, including many investors, stood in line on the day in 2001 that Olympia opened for sales. More than 100 contracts at pre-construction prices were signed. The first homes were built in 2002 with 446 sold by 2003 at an average price of $343,327, according to the Palm Beach County property appraiser.
As the real estate bubble deflated, home sales stalled in Olympia in 2006, falling from 303 the year before to 175. By 2007, almost one in 10 homes were for sale, priced from $400,000 to $1.7 million. In a six-month period beginning Jan. 1, 2007, Olympia homeowners had defaulted on more than $14 million worth of loans, according to a Palm Beach Post analysis.
But many investors have since cleared out. About 65 percent of the homes in Olympia are homesteaded, meaning they are occupied by the homeowner, property appraiser records show.
Palm Beach County Realtors say they are turning more to new home construction to find properties for clients as existing-home inventory continues to dwindle.
“Personally I am now focused on getting reacquainted with several new construction communities that are all over Palm Beach County,” said Realtor Shannon Brink. “That part of the business is definitely revitalized and becoming a viable option for inventory now that there is such a small amount of options for resales. Some communities have nothing for sale at all.”
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 31st, 2013 at 10:13 am and is filed under Florida economy, Housing affordability, Housing boom. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
2 Responses to “Only four new homes left in Wellington’s Olympia”
1
21stcenturyschizoidman Says:
July 31st, 2013 at 11:54 am
I’m so glad this made it to be a featured article. Its a real “feel-good” story that all the Post’s readers will truly appreciate. Maybe as a gesture of good will, the developer could donate the last of these homes to some poor, homeless folks.
2
Want Some Truth? Says:
July 31st, 2013 at 12:01 pm
Want to know the truth? Because it is obvious this paper is just a propaganda arm of the local realty association. Crime in Olympia is rampant! There are Section 8 houses in there! Don’t believe me, ask any deputy who works in wellington. Just like Shoma or Terracina, normal hard working folks paid a fortune for their homes, and right next door is a welfare family paying nothing to live there because some jerk realtor bought a bunch of houses and was going to flip them, making a “fortune”. The false market blew up and all these “realtors” were stuck renting out to sec 8 welfare types. There are burglaries and car thefts in there daily.
Plus, the houses are crap. Go look at one of the empty ones, one for sale. Use your hand to knock or tap on any of the outer columns or façade – they are styrofoam covered in plaster!!!
Bloomberg: Bankrupt Detroit Receives Less U.S. Aid Than Colombia
http://tinyurl.com/kgmwog6
If Detroit goes to a Sherriff’s Sale, can my friends in China buy it, lock, stock, and barrel, evict the current tenants, and turn it into a private, gated community? Those who already own there most likely won’t want to stay after that, and they certainly won’t be able to afford the monthly HOA fees…
They can call it Delta City and station ED209’s around the perimeter…
For those not in the know about ED209, an intro:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9l9wxGFl4k
You have 20 seconds to comply….
It would make an awesome “Escape from New York” theme park!
“Bloomberg: Bankrupt Detroit Receives Less U.S. Aid Than Colombia”
So long as we are making comparisons, how does Detroit’s U.S. aid compare to, say, foreign aid to investment banks? For instance, suppose the Fed printed up $18.5 billion to bail out the Detroit city government with a zero-percent interest loan that could be repaid when they get back on their feet. Wouldn’t that pretty much avoid the problem of cramming down the hapless public workers’ pensions?
Oh never mind…I just remembered the Fed needs to pump $40 bn a month into mortgage backed security purchases. They obviously can’t afford $18.5 bn for a one-time bailout of Detroit, as throwing more money down the housing market rat hole takes priority.
Foreign Banks Tapped Fed’s Secret Lifeline Most at Crisis Peak
By Bradley Keoun & Craig Torres - Apr 1, 2011 10:53 AM PT
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s two-year fight to shield crisis-squeezed banks from the stigma of revealing their public loans protected a lender to local governments in Belgium, a Japanese fishing-cooperative financier and a company part-owned by the Central Bank of Libya.
Dexia SA (DEXB), based in Brussels and Paris, borrowed as much as $33.5 billion through its New York branch from the Fed’s “discount window” lending program, according to Fed documents released yesterday in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. Dublin-based Depfa Bank Plc, taken over in 2007 by a German real-estate lender later seized by the German government, drew $24.5 billion.
…
I believe 2Banana and Slithers will be in town this weekend.
————
http://www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/bthesite/bs-ae-brony-culture-20130730,0,4181814.story
(excerpt)
“This weekend, Lucia and some 6,000 other bronies from across the globe will head to the Baltimore Convention Center for BronyCon 2013, a celebration of brony culture. Among the events: Music inspired by “My Little Pony,” brony dance-offs and panels with such titles as “So I Raised a Teenage Brony: Gender, Stereotypes and Mother-Son Bonding.” The convention began in New York two years ago with just 100 attendees, and has exploded in popularity; Baltimore’s BronyCon is expected to be the biggest yet.
“It’s grown pretty quick,” said BronyCon organizer Nick Opels. “We’re trying to make it as big and comprehensive as we possibly can this year.”
“My Little Pony” is no pop culture newcomer. It began as a television series in 1983 to help sell My Pretty Pony Hasbro toys to young girls. An animated film followed, along with several generations of the show. “My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic” is the latest — and the first to draw the attention of both girls and grown men. Launched in 2010 on cable’s Hub Network, it is now the network’s top series for girls ages 2-11, households and men ages 18-34, according to network publicist Dupe Bosu. The show centers on six magical ponies, who battle evil.
Donnie Weiss, an 18-year-old who lives in Rockville and plans to attend BronyCon this weekend, likes brony culture because it defies expectations.
“The whole idea of going against the social norm is kind of exciting for us,” he said. “We found that by supporting each other and not letting anyone put us down for liking the show, it’s kind of rallied us together.”
Many bronies say their obsession centers on the show’s cast of well-rounded, relatable characters. Weiss said he’s most like Fluttershy, as they are “both kind of socially awkward but we both like to muster the courage to speak out when we need to.” And Max Stahman, a first-year graduate student at the University of Maryland, is drawn to Rarity, a pony who is “somewhat snobbish and can rub people the wrong way, but ultimately has the best intentions and is a nice person.”
a person is not a pony
It’s hard to discern the Bronies at your run of the mill ComicCon, as they do not cosplay. Having seen some strange stuff at ComicCon, I guess I wouldn’t be too surprised to see grown men dressed up as their favorite magic pony, though I have no idea how they could pull it off.
http://www.hubworld.com/hubworld/images/my-little-pony/frienship-is-magic/show-pages/galleries/characters/570×420/mlpfim-character-fluttershy_570×420.jpg
GAK! It’s TEOTWAWFKI!
“Adult men who obsess over the cartoon ‘My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic’ will converge on the convention center”
As far as things posted on this blog, I thought the dude who was arrested the second time for having sex with a miniature donkey would never be topped. But once again I am wrong.
“But Lucia is a 25-year-old man, an electrician who lives in a Pasadena duplex and has what he calls a “healthy obsession.”
“Being in the construction industry, there are guys who sit around and talk about women all day long,” Lucia said. “I go home and wrap myself in ponies.”
I don’t even know where to start, so I won’t.
It’s weird, but at least he isn’t out on the streetcorner with a sign, screaming that Jesus is coming to kill me.
Lucia said. “I go home and wrap myself in ponies.”
His father is probably saying……
Why couldn’t he come home and tell me he was gay like a normal kid.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/25514-The-Post-Market-Economy-Part-I-Chaos-on-Planet-ZIRP-Eric-Janszen?p=261807#post261807
so i read through this analysis over at itulip…what makes eric so sure that yellen isn’t going to print like a bernanke?
I don’t see any way for them to stop printing. If the fed quits buying those bonds, rates will shoot up, and the government will be bankrupt in a matter of months.
“I don’t see any way for them to stop printing.”
It’s better this way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsgnG-TNXPk - 128k -
They just cant get over it and move on…..
SAN DIEGO - The San Diego Unified School District Board of Education on Tuesday voted to have staff discuss the George Zimmerman-Trayvon Martin case with middle and high school students.
The school board voted unanimously during Tuesday’s meeting. Trustees Richard Barrera and Marne Foster initially offered the proposal.
Zimmerman was acquitted of second-degree murder in connection with the Feb. 26, 2012, fatal shooting of the 17-year-old Martin in Sanford, Fla.
The confrontation ignited debate over racism, vigilantism, self-defense and a “stand your ground” law in Florida.
Barrera and Foster said discussions among students would allow them to speak honestly how they identify with Trayvon Martin and have feelings of fear, anger, and skepticism that they will live in a just society as they prepare for the future.
The trustees also said the plan, which would be implemented by the district’s Office of Race Human Relations and Advocacy, would:
– allow students to talk about the world view that prompted George Zimmerman to confront Trayvon Martin;
– help students develop perspectives and strategies to channel their feelings about Trayvon Martin into positive work for themselves and the larger community;
– allow students to speak about the “stand your ground” laws; and
– help students learn how to deal with being confronted by others in an authoritative manner.
Barrera and Foster also said the students could learn from the decisions made by Zimmerman and Martin, and how things could have been done differently.
http://www.10news.com/news/sd-school-district-to-discuss-whether-to-talk-about-george-zimmerman-trayvon-martin-case-073013
XKeyscore
I could use some breathing space, unfortunately I don’t qualify.
Oregon to launch mortgage relief
link
The Home Rescue Program will provide a year’s worth of mortgage payments, up to a total of $20,000, and up to $10,000 in back payments to bring mortgages current, according to Benjamin Pray, spokesman for Oregon Housing and Community Services, Oregon’s housing finance agency.
They do not have to be behind on their mortgage payments to qualify for the program, which is intended to give struggling homeowners some breathing space and allow them to stabilize their finances, he said.
“The Home Rescue Program will provide a year’s worth of mortgage payments, up to a total of $20,000, and up to $10,000 in back payments to bring mortgages current,”
THAT’S THE HARDEST HIT PROGRAM!
This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, and they’ll continue singing it forever just because…This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, and they’ll continue singing it forever just because…This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, and they’ll continue singing it forever just because…This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, and they’ll continue singing it forever just because…This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, and they’ll continue singing it forever just because…This is the song that never ends, yes it goes on and on my friend. Some people started singing it, not knowing what it was, and they’ll continue singing it forever just because…
June New Home Sales Report Further Confirms My Bearish View On Housing
June and August are typically the peak months for home sales on a seasonal basis. I fully anticipate that the next couple of new home sale reports will have large downward revisions for the June number, as the June report only partially reflects the jump in cancelled contracts that will occur from the May spike in mortgage rates. Existing home sales for July will also be highly affected. Sorry, but it’s all downhill from here for housing. Watch for negative GDP reports as well.
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/07/june-new-home-sales-report-further.html
Is anyone besides me buying stocks now, despite the evidence that a major correction will occur at some point over the next couple of years when the Fed provides concrete guidance on plans to end QE3?
I mainly buy stocks as a hedge against “higher than expected” inflation, in which case current stock prices could turn out to be cheap.
July 31, 2013, 8:31 a.m. EDT
P/E ratios to drop 20% in coming years
Commentary: What history tells us about rising rate environments
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — We could very well be entering into a multi-decade period of much lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios.
That, at least, is the conclusion that emerges from a very long-term perspective on the relationship between interest rates and P/E ratios. On average since 1871, it turns out, P/E ratios have averaged just 12.8 when long-term rates have been in a secular uptrend vs. 17.5 when those rates have been in a secular downtrend.
This stark pattern emerged when I analyzed the historical database extending back to 1871 that is maintained by Yale University professor Robert Shiller. As you can see from the accompanying chart, there have been two fairly well-defined periods, each lasting two or more decades, in which long-term interest rates were in an uptrend.
The first appears more modest on the chart, lasting from 1901 to the early 1920s. The second, which is far more dramatic, began in the early 1940s and lasted until 1981. And though it’s premature to declare that the rise in long-term rates over the last few months is the beginning of a third such multi-decade period, virtually everyone believes that the trend in rates over the next couple of decades is more likely to be closer to what we saw between the early 1940s and 1981 than what we have experienced since 1981.
That’s why it’s so crucial for us to study those prior rising-rate environments to find out how they differed from the intervening periods in which interest rates were coming down. The differences summarized in the accompanying table are highly significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to conclude whether a pattern is genuine.
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Luckily the U.S. stock market is decoupled from China’s economy.
China HSBC PMI dips to 11-month low in July
BEIJING | Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:20pm EDT
(Reuters) - China’s factory activity shrank for a third straight month in July to its lowest level in nearly a year as new orders fell, a private survey showed on Thursday, signaling the persistent pressure on the economy has extended into the third quarter.
The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by Markit Economics Research, fell to 47.7 in July from June’s 48.2. It was the weakest reading since August 2012, and matched a preliminary figure published last week.
A reading below 50 indicates a contraction of activity while one above shows expansion.
“With weak demand from both domestic and external markets, the cooling manufacturing sector continued to weigh on employment,” said Hongbin Qu, China chief economist at HSBC.
While keeping the door shut for big stimulus, the government has unveiled a series of polices to boost spending in social housing, urban infrastructure, high-speed rail and energy-saving industries, while offering tax breaks for small firms.
“These targeted measures should boost confidence and reduce downside risks to growth,” Qu added.
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‘New documents released today reveal the alarming scope of NSA data collection. But half of Americans see the spying as ‘no big deal.’ They are allowing government to chip away at freedoms that others, especially in the Arab world, are giving their lives to build.’
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0731/The-danger-of-American-apathy-on-NSA-surveillance
Makes ya think…
Not enough, apparently. Not one mention here in the last two days of Bradley Manning being acquitted of aiding and abetting.