Ghosts Of Their Former Selves
The News Press reports on Florida. “One hotbed of spec building is Fort Myers Beach, where new construction was a rarity until a sudden burst of activity. ‘I sold more waterfront lots this season than I’ve ever sold in Fort Myers’ including some to investors, said Trae Zipperer of Luxury Property Firm. He expects some of those will become spec homes as prices continue to rise for existing homes and inventories remain low for waterfront properties. ‘At some point spec builders will step in to meet the demand, Zipperer said. ‘There’s a demand for new homes on the water and they just don’t exist.’”
The News Journal. “On the ruins of the partially built former Vizcaya condominium complex, which was abandoned during the Great Recession, a new developer is looking to build a new luxury condo complex. ‘We can’t keep a condo on the books if it’s priced right,’ said Ellen Darden, a luxury condo sales specialist with Watson Realty in New Smyrna Beach. ‘The condo market is heating up again. The Waterford is in a good location and should be very marketable.’”
“Condo demand in New Smyrna Beach is on the rise. From March through June, condo sales rose 34 percent to 205 this year from 153 last year, according to the New Smyrna Beach Board of Realtors. The median sale price in June was $189,000, up 6 percent from $139,000 a year ago, but slightly down from $212,500 in April, the highest level in 1.5 years. The units range in size from 1,845 square feet to 3,088 for a penthouse. Prices currently range from $700,000 to $1.6 million, but are expected to rise once construction starts, said Pat Collado, owner of Collado Real Estate in New Smyrna Beach, the exclusive sales agent for Waterford.”
The Sun Sentinel. “Home ownership in Florida has gone down and stayed down since 2005, and there’s little likelihood that will change any time soon as many of the state’s financially strapped residents still find it hard to buy a home or choose to rent one instead. ‘I have a lot of clients who are several points away from a good credit rating, or they have problems coming up with a down payment. They have no savings at all — living paycheck to paycheck — or they have a few thousand dollars but not enough for a conventional loan with 5 percent down,’ said Aaron Mighty, a real estate agent in Orlando.”
“‘A lot of people have decided that going back to renting is more feasible. I had one client sell his house because the market price was high. He said, ‘If I can make a profit, rent for a year or two, then I’ll give you a call and buy again.’”
“Many in the real estate business have adjusted by catering to this growing market of investment owners, a trend that will keep Florida’s rate of individual ownership relatively low for several years and perhaps much longer. ‘We sell less and less to end-users and more to investors,’ said Jim Banford, who deals in distressed properties for the Real Estate Asset Disposition Corp. in West Palm Beach. ‘There’s a lot of money right now betting that we need more rental housing, and Florida is a market for converting what was formerly owned by individuals as a primary home into rental housing.’”
The Orlando Sentinel. “Orlando is unlikely to see its recent home-price gains continue in the months ahead, according to Corelogic Inc. ‘I think the primary factor is the foreclosure inventory, and Orlando and Fort Lauderdale have very large inventories of foreclosed properties,’ said David Stiff, chief economist for the Corelogic Case-Shiller Indexes.”
“A softening of those housing markets now is understandable, considering that in recent months almost half of all existing-home sales in both have been cash deals made by investors. Prices have been rising the past year and a half, and are up more than 20 percent in the past year. ‘You and I both know that’s not sustainable,’ said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida.”
“Orlando real estate broker, Myra Johnson of MJ Real Estate Inc., said home prices have been so volatile in Central Florida that they are difficult to predict. But it is understandable that the area’s housing stock could be in for a price decline, she added, at least until owner-occupants once again dominate the market. ‘Tied to a price decline is the fact we have all these vacant houses out there,’ said Johnson.”
The Tampa Bay Times. “Four years after the Great Recession technically ended, statewide employment has finally topped 8.75 million, nearing its prerecession size. But the mix of jobs has changed dramatically, with manufacturing and construction remaining ghosts of their former selves. Collectively, we’re earning less money with more people clustered in lower-paying jobs in retail, tourism and health care. There are more part-timers and workers combining a couple of part-time jobs into one full-time paycheck.”
“For 38-year-old April Cino, the state’s economic makeover triggered a personal financial makeover. Cino enjoyed manufacturing, working in Largo for a medical device company. But when her employer shuttered the Largo plant in 2010, Cino was suddenly out of a job. The mother of two teenage children, who was also pregnant, spent a year of fruitless job hunting. She eventually lost her Hernando County home to foreclosure. With the encouragement of a WorkNet Pinellas counselor and financial help from the federal Trade Adjustment Assistance program, Cino attended Galen School of Nursing.”
“After receiving her registered nursing license last fall, she landed a job in the cardiac unit of Largo Medical Center. Her new job has ‘a lot more stress,’, Cino said. ‘It’s a little overwhelming.’”
From WFTV. “Facing one of the largest backlogs of foreclosures in the state, central Florida’s Ninth Circuit Court has cleared 41 percent of its backlog since June 2012. However, new numbers obtained by Eyewitness News show the court entered May 2013 with 28,000 cases still pending and another 1,000 new cases filed every month. Add into this mix more than $5 million from the state to help the courts hire staff to speed up foreclosures and a newly signed ‘fast-track foreclosure bill.’”
“‘The foreclosure backlog has really been a governor on it just going crazy,’ said Justin Clark, a central Florida real estate attorney. ‘The courts are doing everything they can to speed up the foreclosure process. Now with this fast-track foreclosure system, we’re just going to kick these people right out and it’s no fault of their own, I think it’s setting up for a lot of tragedy for families in central Florida,’ said Clark.”
“…The units range in size from 1,845 square feet to 3,088 for a penthouse. Prices currently range from $700,000 to $1.6 million, but are expected to rise once construction starts, said Pat Collado, owner of Collado Real Estate in New Smyrna Beach, the exclusive sales agent for Waterford.”
If you build it, the gullible, greedy and stupid will come?
“…But it is understandable that the area’s housing stock could be in for a price decline, she added, at least until owner-occupants once again dominate the market. ‘Tied to a price decline is the fact we have all these vacant houses out there,’ said Johnson.”
Oh, and are there EVER vacant houses out here. Just drive through any existing subdivision at night and look at the dark, empty shells.
And given all the rain and heat we’ve had, you have to wonder what sort of shape these properties are in.
I guess Florida could develop another type of grow house: mushroom cellars.
Actually, black mold is toxic.
Luckily, the corrosive, sulfurous Chinese sheetrock used in many houses down here during Bubble 1.0 gives off toxic fumes which kills black mold. It also turns your lungs to charcoal, but it does kill the mold. Happy house shopping!
Is there any data showing black mold is toxic or is this just widely assumed?
No.
“…While certain molds are toxigenic, meaning they can produce toxins (specifically mycotoxins), the molds themselves are not toxic….”
http://www.cdc.gov/mold/stachy.htm
Looks like those 28,000 homes in FL are going to go up on the auction block by the Souper Bowl. Who’s gonna buy them? Part-timer Lucky Ducks at 4.7% interest, or Blackstone for cash?
My vote says Blackstone/hedge funds will fix them up for rent or flip during next spring’s selling season. Might be a good time to buy stock in Home Despot. And then 2-3 people working 2 jobs each will shack up in order to combine their part-time paychecks into one rent payment. Welcome to tenements circa 1905, or “guest worker” SFH villages circa 2008. How very American.
If Blackstone (or anyone else) buys and fixes up 28,000 vacant houses to rent then that should a lot of downard pressure on rent prices.
And if downward pressure is put on rent prices then the incentive to buy rather than rent also gets a bit of downward pressure.
“Looks like those 28,000 homes in FL are going to go up on the auction block by the Souper Bowl.”
Ummm… You might want to invest in a calculator and check your math a little.
What does your calculation say?
You made the estimate, so I’d like to hear your logic. Can you show me how you arrive at the conclusion that from May of this year through the next 9 months, an additional 37,000 foreclosed houses will be absorbed in the Central Florida region, in addition to the other housing units on the market?
I said “on the auction block,” not “sold.”
Go bait someone else today.
Poor Donkey…… full of rhetoric and debt.
Comment by Oxide
2013-08-06 07:49:19
I said “on the auction block,” not “sold.”
Go bait someone else today.
Waaaaah. Its really inconvenient when someone asks you to back up your bullshit, huh? So, thats all you’ve got to contribute? Why don’t you tell us all again how great it is to own your dream home and how smart you are for buying when you did. I never get tired of hearing that broken record played over and over and over…
I never get tired of playing this record either. The FB/RE Bubble Anthem; http://www.sadtrombone.com/?play=true
BCG, generally, people who purchased houses when Oxide did (2010 I believe) have seen solid economic benefits. They get a tax break (if itemizing), have pretty much fixed their housing expenses at or below rent, and have seen 10-30% appreciation.
I bought the house I where I live in late 2010. My PITI is $2,270/mon (3.25% interest). The house next door rented for $3,350 three months ago (saving me $13,000/year in cash flow). I get a nice $12,000 year deduction from my taxable income, saving me $1,680/year in taxes. I could sell the house today for $190,000 more than I paid. When you deduct selling costs of say, 8%, I would net about $150,000. I invested $15,000 in the down payment using an FHA loan.
It is the best investment I have ever made in my life! 10 x’s return on my investment just in appreciation alone over a 34 month period = 300% ROI annually.
The only broken record these days is from people in denial that the housing recovery is real.
…Blah Blah Blah Blah…”The only broken record these days is from people in denial that the housing recovery is real.”
This is so wondrously pompous, self congratulatory and clueless all at the same time, that I am saving this one on the quote board so that I can remind you of it in the coming months and years. The record of your hubris and folly will be like the ancient tsunami warning stones in Japan. Thank you for your sacrifice.
Hey Jingle Balls…. as our old friend and noted blog contributor has stated many times;
“A housing recovery is dramatically lower prices by definition.”
PS- You nor The Blog Debt Donkey could find a buyer for a fraction of what you’ve got in these rapidly depreciating shacks. And your losses are mounting.
And yet, having made this phenomenal decision that has changed your life for the better and made you wealthy beyond your dreams, you still make time to troll on a Housing Bubble Blog. Why is that? What deep insecurity and fear keeps bringing you back?
that the housing recovery is real ??
Hmm….In real terms maybe…In future reality we shall see…In my nab at least, current pricing could in no way be supported with historical norm long term mortgage rates…Combine that with tax reform that is likely not going to be favorable to debt financed home ownership, higher real taxes in many forms and you have a potential toxic mix to deal with…
BCG says “… I am saving this one on the quote board so that I can remind you of it in the coming months and years.”
Did you miss the posting a month ago, where I sold a house for $124,000 more than I paid in 2010? I gave you the address and Zillow has updated the records now.
BCG = $0
Jingle Male = $124,000 plus $3,600 in cash flow over 36 months.
You have your head so far into the future you cannot see today.
Housing Analyst says “….And your losses are mounting.” See above. Housing Analyst = $0 too!
You guys are stuck in 2007 and you think everyone else should be stuck there too! I come back to the HBB from time to time to provide an important perspective.
Get over it.
The housing bubble happened. It has passed. People should get on with their lives. The is nothing bubbly about this market. Qualified buyers, moderate prices, builders ramping up. Jobs coming (slowly, yes) and recovery is happening.
You all told me I was crazy to buy in 2010 and I can now point to 127,600 reasons why you were and are wrong.
Now you want to tell me my own home purchase was a mistake? It is the BEST investment I have ever made.
There isn’t a buyer in sight for a mere fraction of what you have in it. You paid an inflated amount for what is always a depreciating asset like millions of other uninformed stupid people.
Quit lying, get over it and get on with your life.
Who you gonna believe, HA? JM’s posted figures or your lying eyes?
Seriously? You really are that gullible.
“then 2-3 people working 2 jobs each will shack up in order to combine their part-time paychecks into one rent payment…”
This line of thought proceeds from the conclusion that dumping more housing on the market will make the price go up.
Her disconnect is staggering. (or is it just stupidity or trolling?)
“Oxide” will come out eventually….. right before she realizes that her internet charade is going to get exposed.
tick.tock.tick.tock.
Here in Norfolk area there is a ton of money going into apartments. Perhaps 7 projects that I can think of. One has 130 units coming on the market. Entry point is $800/month for a studio (370sqft+). It’s nuts.
Sad thing is I bet these investors have the money to leave it all empty and overpriced.
Investors waiting to sell? Waiting for the foreign buyers who will soon see their own countries in default and who is left to buy oh yes, the American part time service rep who makes $11 a hour.
All the talk in the press now is about the decline of the American worker and middle class. Tell me folks where was the press during the election pushing hard for this administration and why did so many middle class Americans vote him back in?
Because the other guy was caught on camera expressing the utter contempt he feels for working class Americans?
Not defending the O-man, he sucks. But the other guy was a poster boy for Gordon Gekko, he was a corporate raider who became wealthy by destroying jobs. And he was the best the GOP could come up with.
I don’t think they wanted to win it… they seem very happy shrieking at Obama. If they had the presidency, they’d have to actually fix something.
Agreed, and they know that things are so fubar’d that doing the right thing would prove to be painful and extremely unpopular.
Not defending the O-man, he sucks. But the other guy was a poster boy for Gordon Gekko, he was a corporate raider who became wealthy by destroying jobs. And he was the best the GOP could come up with.
What In Colorado said.
“utter contempt he feels for working class Americans?”
Apparently you did not comprehend what exactly he was caught on tape saying.
He said that half the country are free loaders and that the GOP should forget about them. Never mind that most of those people work, often at more than one job. Maybe if they earned a living wage they wouldn’t need food stamps.
You are making it up as you go along. You obviously don’t know what he said. You might come to different conclusions if you look at things carefully.
Seems to me that you are engaged in some revisionist history.
If the GOP had nominated someone who wasn’t a douche bag, they would have easily won the election. But Rmoney was the best they could come up with. Obama was in a bad place, yet they managed to blow it.
“…Prices have been rising the past year and a half, and are up more than 20 percent in the past year. ‘You and I both know that’s not sustainable,’ said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida.”
‘Replied Captain Obvious, who is a seasoned identifier of paradigm shifts, a professional Bottom-Caller and a self-described real estate genius’.
…and he almost won. Yikes.
The souffle guy. It is like a reunion show for a terrible sitcom.
“From WFTV. “Facing one of the largest backlogs of foreclosures in the state, central Florida’s Ninth Circuit Court has cleared 41 percent of its backlog since June 2012. However, new numbers obtained by Eyewitness News show the court entered May 2013 with 28,000 cases still pending and another 1,000 new cases filed every month.”
And as the snout of the beast slowly emerges from its lair, we can begin to visualize the magnitude of its true size.
‘There’s a demand for new homes on the water and they just don’t exist.’”
Not for long, Mr. Happy Talk. The local news is full of reports about skyrocketing insurance rates for waterfront property, to the point of publishing sob stories about older fixed income folks who can’t afford it.
“The local news is full of reports about skyrocketing insurance rates for waterfront property”
Haven’t seen the stories, but if they’re true, that’s kind of strange, considering FL hasn’t seriously been hit by a hurricane since Wilma in October ‘05. The rates skyrocketed just before I moved there in ‘06, I would have thought they’d gone back down some by now. The insurance companies must be making a killing there in the last 8 years.
Insurance companies used to make a lot of their money by what they were able to earn on the float. This money acted as a subsidy of a sort that helped to keep insurance rates down.
Now that the earnings on the float are down so is this subsidy down. And if the subsidy is down then the rates have to go up to close the gap. And this, IMHO, is what you are seeing.
A case of deflationary pressure (low earnings on the float) being reflected as and interpreted as inflationary pressure (rising rates).
BTW, this low earnings on the float thingy is what is destroying pensions everywhere.
Pension costs used to be subsidized by what used to be earned by the float - by the investment money that was earned by the vast amount of money contained in by the pension fund. Little new money wasn’t needed to be added to pension funds because the money already held by the funds earned enough to keep the funds above water.
Now that has all changed. And here we are.
BTW, this low earnings on the float thingy is what is destroying pensions everywhere.
It’s going to force fund managers (and individual investors) to take risks they shouldn’t.
Now that has all changed. And here we are ??
Ya think ?? Want a sobering read…Here it is…Did I say sobering ?? I mean to say; Frightening !!
http://www.city-journal.org/2013/23_3_state-debt.html
There have been some reports on the local news stations about it, I think it was two nights ago. I’m not on the water, but my LL got a notice of insurance rate hike as well. Which probably means rent hike come the spring.
I really don’t know what to make of all this in Florida. The reporting looks bi-polar to me. It’s up, it’s down, it’s hot, it’s not, investors driving the market (isn’t that what happened during 1.0?)
It looks like mass confusion to me. It also looks like another freeze-up or lock-up of the market, ahead of the next decline.
Its already well underway, man. First comes the recognition of facts and reality, then this drives a change in individual perceptions and expectations and finally people react to that by changing their behaviors. And its already well underway.
I frankly can hardly wait until the next crash, as the news will be heavily laden with tales of foreign all-cash investors losing their shirts, which should be highly entertaining!
Just like Japan in the 80s.
I frankly can hardly wait until the next crash
As long as it doesn’t take us all down with it.
That’s what they said last time. And what happened is the little people got pushed down one flight of stairs while the big people continued to party. So now here we are again…we’re going down, the only question is whether they are going down with us, and how many flights it’s going to have to be until we’re all in it together again and can start climbing up again as a society.
“But the mix of jobs has changed dramatically, with manufacturing and construction remaining ghosts of their former selves. Collectively, we’re earning less money with more people clustered in lower-paying jobs in retail, tourism and health care. There are more part-timers and workers combining a couple of part-time jobs into one full-time paycheck.”
At what point will the massive drop in permanent incomes finally show up in housing prices?
It’s already happening in reality.
Inventory…. whether marketed or in the background, rental or SFR, 25 MILLION of them…. Get past the media/housing crime syndicate detractions and think contemplate the notion that millions of empty houses can be hidden or obscured. It’s a game of hot potato where the losses accrue in mid-air before the catch is made.
“A softening of those housing markets now is understandable, considering that in recent months almost half of all existing-home sales in both have been cash deals made by investors. Prices have been rising the past year and a half, and are up more than 20 percent in the past year. ‘You and I both know that’s not sustainable,’ said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida.”
The air is back in the souffle!
This guy Snaith… carpetbagger from CA.
‘But it will just settle a little, like a souffle- not pop like a balloon.’ Ahhh, yes. Its funny how its always ‘different this time’, every time it happens. More wisdom from Sean ‘We have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau’ Snaith.
That is what Leslie Simpleton Young from California Association of Realtors said in 2005 before it all collapsed.
‘Fort Myers-based First Community Bank of Southwest Florida was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as receiver, the FDIC announced. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into an agreement with C1 Bank, St. Petersburg, to assume all of the deposits of First Community.’
‘Florida Community has been having financial problems for the past eight years. It was hit with a consent order in June 2010 requiring it to raise more capital and get rid of “doubtful” assets. Before that, First Community was put under a cease-and-desist order by the FDIC in June 2005 to stop making residential construction loans because it had too high a percentage in that category.’
‘US President Barack Obama will laud economic benefits of immigration reform today, most notably in increasing housing prices, still recovering after the 2008 economic crisis, the White House said. The Democratic leader is set to spend the day in Arizona, in the US southwest, for a day of housing-related activities…Arizona, along with California and Nevada, was among the worst affected by the crash in home values — which dropped more than 60 per cent in some places after years of boom.’
‘While prices are back on the rise, values have yet to recover to pre-2008 highs. The state is also on the US-Mexico border, and immigration is a hot topic there.’
‘In a statement ahead of the trip, the White House argued that immigration reform — championed by Obama, but stalled in Congress — would substantially increase home values.’
“Between 2000 and 2010, immigrants accounted for almost 40 per cent of new homeowners nationwide,” the statement said, adding that eight in ten new homeowners in California were immigrants. Obama will unveil a battery of reforms and proposals to help boost the housing sector during his Arizona visit, including aid for troubled borrowers, better access to credit, and an investment program in low-priced homes.’
OK Democrats, step up and defend this:
‘the White House argued that immigration reform — championed by Obama, but stalled in Congress — would substantially increase home values’
Let’s repeat this so it is understood:
’substantially increase home values’
Well … duh! Strawberry Pickers are going to make a comeback and buy expensive houses!
I know, it’s risible that we are going to stimulate the economy by importing poverty.
‘we are going to stimulate the economy by importing poverty’
Here’s what passes for serious economic policy; that we are going to fix the economy with higher house prices. Bernanke says it, Obama says it. Politics aside, my gut feeling when I read that was fear. Do these people really believe this? I mean, that’s all you got? If high house prices fixed the economy, then nothing would have ever gone wrong a few years ago.
We have a problem here folks. These people are complete idiots, or they are saying stuff to cover up for a feel-good policy they know will fail. Either way, we are being lead into a disaster. I have one suggestion; forget about Romney. He isn’t president, he never will be. Pick up the phone and tell the people in DC they have their heads up their you know what.
“We have a problem here folks. These people are complete idiots, or they are saying stuff to cover up for a feel-good policy they know will fail. Either way, we are being lead into a disaster. I have one suggestion; forget about Romney. He isn’t president, he never will be. Pick up the phone and tell the people in DC they have their heads up their you know what.”
^^ This ^^
In its current incarnation, either party is simply the opposite side of the same coin. Flip it as many times as you want- you still end up with the same coin- and BOTH sides of it are still there, biding their time until the next flip. I do think it is significant when the Huckster In Chief is called upon to make an appearance and shill RE for the masses. He is not doing this because the ‘recovery’ is going so well.
the Huckster In Chief is called upon to make an appearance and shill RE for the masses. He is not doing this because the ‘recovery’ is going so well.
Beautiful truth. And the sad truth is that it’s only the debt junkies who believe the bought and paid for beyatch. Huckster is much too nice.
The financial sector grew from a splinter into a log during the rise in house prices. Their health declined as the credit contraction dawned. For them, expanding credit is an healthy economy. I think it just tells you where the politicians’ ears are.
Well 3 legal strawberry pickers can qualify for as much house as one chain store manager. Maybe more. It’s all about the demographics. This won’t affect the high end market but it means the “starter” houses will be occupied.
‘it means the “starter” houses will be occupied’
They say it’s amnesty. They are already here.
The good news is that he’s not coming down to Tucson.
I’m so happy that American citizens’ tax dollars are going towards driving home prices skyward to help new immigrant homeowners chalk up home equity gains THAT I COULD SCREAM.
Obama warns on housing: ‘We can’t just re-inflate a housing bubble’
By Michael O’Brien, Political Reporter, NBC News
President Barack Obama took his economic road show to Phoenix on Tuesday, where he highlighted the effect his housing policies could have on furthering the recovery of the housing market in the Arizona city and dozens of other towns like it that were hit hard by last decade’s mortgage crisis.
The president called for a series of reforms for both borrowers and lenders, which he said would help boost homeownership and protect the housing market from another crash similar to the one which devastated American financial system and prompted the onset of the 2008 recession.
“As home prices rise, we can’t just re-inflate a housing bubble,” the president told a crowd at a high school in Phoenix. “That’s the second thing I’m here to talk about today: laying a rock-solid foundation to make sure the kind of crisis we just went through never happens again.”
…
‘would help boost homeownership and protect the housing market from another crash’
?
‘As home prices rise, we can’t just re-inflate a housing bubble’
Just? Isn’t that enough?
‘we can’t just re-inflate a housing bubble,’ the president told a crowd. ‘That’s the second thing I’m here to talk about today, laying a rock-solid foundation to make sure the kind of crisis we just went through never happens again.’
Did he admit to re-inflating the housing bubble?
‘In a statement ahead of the trip, the White House argued that immigration reform — championed by Obama, but stalled in Congress — would substantially increase home values’
The illegals he wants to make legal are already inside the US. But beside that, this administration is making it clear they think high house prices are an economic plus. I’ll ask again; Democrats, clue me in to what I’m missing about this bonanza given the double digit increases in house prices. Please let me know, because I sure don’t want to be priced out forever by formerly illegal aliens.
Just to give you an idea how massively inflated resale housing prices actually are.
http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/7812/caseshiller.jpg
As our old friend Joe Liberace says, “If you buy a house now, you’re going to lose alot of money. ALOT of money.”
She eventually lost her Hernando County home to foreclosure. With the encouragement of a WorkNet Pinellas counselor and financial help from the federal Trade Adjustment Assistance program, Cino attended Galen School of Nursing.”
_______________________________/
Everyone who advised this woman to go to a for-profit college for her nursing degree should be ashamed. She could have obtained it at a community college for a a fraction of the price. But let’s pass those federal funds right on to our cronies shall we?
In other news, McMansion builders are on a tear on my neighborhood. The kind of houses we are building are the gauche and overly triumphant dwellings of the insecure. Near me is a small, beautiful house that’s been for sale for awhile. Friends of mine used to live there, and I’ve been inside several times. Now it has stakes out front denoting the property lines. Here comes the bulldozer.
We are a foolish people and we will get what we deserve.
Gary Larsen nailed it years ago:
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/199/511745195_1f7aa62cde.jpg?v=0
“We are a foolish people and we will get what we deserve.”
Whatchoo mean “we”, Paleface? (Tonto)
Seriously, snakecharmer, this is the serious mistake smart folks like you make, identifying with the slack-jawed yokels and marks. Their condition is not my condition. Nor is it yours. “You” are not part of that “we”.
Statistically speaking, we’re all morons.
Whatchoo mean “we”, Paleface? (Tonto)
Your fate is tied to theirs whether you identify with them or not. You are not in the club.
Your fate is tied to theirs whether you identify with them or not. You are not in the club.
That pretty much sums it up. If there are bail outs, you will pay for them, even if you aren’t a slack jawed yokel.
Can the Housing Recovery Continue?
A sales down, prices up dynamic is not the characteristic of a healthy sustainable real estate market.
http://smaulgld.com/can-the-housing-recovery-continue/#comments
From the article: With investors fleeing the real estate market because of higher interest rates, with fewer people working and those that are working are earning and saving less, who is going to be able to buy houses in sufficient volumes to keep the real estate “recovery” going? It doesn’t matter how low interest rates are if people don’t have the incomes, savings or credit to buy homes. Rising interest rates can only make a bad situation worse.
Rising interest rates can only make a bad situation worse.
Yup. When I share this with my coworkers, all I get for my trouble are rolling eyes.
Maybe if you explain the “1% interest increase means 20% payment increase” that will ring a bell in their howmuchamonth minds.
They shake their heads. Housing is supposed to be unaffordable, dammit. This is Denver, for Pete’s sake!
They just don’t want to believe it.
Denver? The exact dead center of flyoverland?
I, who have had 1st mortgages at 13.5% and a 2nd mortgage and an auto loan at 16%, sit here boggled at the concept that 5% is an an outrageously high rate.
These people don’t have a clue….
DON’T PANIC !!!
—————————–
”For-Sale” Supply Wave Hitting Market?
I am tracking a sharp jump in MLS “listed” supply all over the Western region in the past 3 weeks.
In my little city in California for example, listed for-sale supply went from 60 houses to 100 in the back half of July. Say what?!?
We sell 20 houses per month so this market went from 3 months to 5 months supply “going into” the slow season. This is unprecedented. It reeks of panic. And comes as Realtors from coast to coast tell me that the “frenzied” demand pace through May has all but evaporated.
http://mhanson.com/archives/1419
“In my little city in California for example, listed for-sale supply went from 60 houses to 100 in the back half of July. Say what?!?”
It could be that rising interest rates substantially slowed the pace of sales. Without a close look at the rate of new listings and sales, it’s hard to separate your null hypothesis that the rate of new listings increased from the alternative hypothesis that the rate of sales slowed.