Bits Bucket for August 26, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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“Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, always. Your losses are magnified tremendously if you finance it.”
BINGO
Good thing landlords don’t calculate in costs like interest, opportunity, repairs and maintenance when deciding to buy/build rentals. Nice of the landlords to just eat all those costs for the renters.
Right?
Expenses are never automatic pass through costs to the end user.
How many times do I need to school you on that reality Darryl?
Until you start spelling my name correctly.
Yes, they are not an automatic pass through…
But they are not NEVER passed through, as you imply.
Most of the time, you’re paying those costs, either directly as an owner, or indirectly through your rent.
Yes, there are times and places where rent is cheaper than buying. In those cases, rent.
HOWEVER, there are other times and places where rent is more expensive. Your constant repeating that it is not true, does not magically make it untrue.
And you continue to tell people that housing cash flows at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing.
And you’re lying.
“And you continue to tell people that housing cash flows at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing. ”
Are you saying that there is not a single house for sale, ANYWHERE in the country, that could not be bought and rented out for a positive cash flow?
If so, then I’m sure no one here is taking you seriously.
I’ll admit that the vast majority of houses for sale are overpriced.
Can you admit the possibility that there is at least one house out there that is for sale for an appropriate price?
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You offer no proof, and just repeat the same obviously ridicules assertions over and over.
Saying it over and over does not make it true.
And lying about it over and over again simply makes you the liar that you are.
“the vast majority of houses for sale are overpriced…”
Get this! The whole market is grossly overpriced. The losses, pain and collateral damage which lie directly in front of us will be worse than the “majority” can even imagine, much less the exceptional apologist.
It is futility to pencil out monthly cash flow on something you have acquired through long them debt, it is going to fall in on you. Do the long math.
Not an automatic pass through, of course not.
But you seem to imply that all LLs lose money. In reality, incompetent LL’s go out of business or are forced to eat losses but the better ones are great at controlling costs, maximizing revenue, and using NARscum agents to get them better deals than a typical debt donkey homeshopper would ever see.
And not only are there massive losses and negative cap rates at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing, your losses double when financing that guaranteed loss.
Now why sign up for losses so large from which you’ll never recover?
You act like competent LL’s are dealing at arm’s length and don’t crunch the #s. In reality, LL’s use the most corrupt NARscum they can find and get deals before they hit the market. The NARscum thus get less per sale but get the opportunity for more sales in future. Which makes other NARscum want to be just as unethical.
Lib…… You sound like Darryl now……
NAR has nothing to do with the fact that current cap rates are negative.
Are you being purposefully obtuse?
I’m saying that LL’s don’t peruse the housing listings, they go directly to the realtors and offer extra money to feed them distressed listings, short sales, and homes with desperate sellers. They’re not buying at anything like market prices unless they’re debt donkey small timers.
It’s you that is avoiding the fundamental point.
Cap rates are negative at current asking prices of resale houisng.
The first words out of a realtors mouth in the presence of the target should be, “how much money would you like to lose today?”
And that is all that NAR has to do with this conversation.
The current RealtWhore model is SOOO rife with conflict of interest, I don’t see how it isn’t criminal.
As a buyer, the more I pay for the house, the more the RealtWhores earn in commission. And yet I’m still expected to believe that “my” RealtWhore is working in my best interests?
We need the DoJ back on the war path against the NAR. We need to switch to a flat fee model. The client should pay per transaction/service, not a % of how much they overpay.
“Cap rates are negative at current asking prices of resale houisng.”
This statement means that HA believes that rent is insufficient to pay for the costs of owning the home (taxes, insurance, maintenance)…if you bought the house all-cash (cap rates are determined on an unlevered basis).
That is simply not true.
It’s not a matter of what I “think”.
The fact remains cap rates are negative at current asking prices.
Get over it and get on with your life.
‘Nice of the landlords to just eat all those costs for the renters’
A LL tried to pass a cost on to me once. I just told him our trade deficit forbid it.
The bottom line is that LLs will use whatever excuse they can to justify higher rents (property taxes went up, improvements to the property, etc.). However, if the market doesn’t justify the higher rents, they’ll lose tenants.
My LL raised my rent just a few times in the 7 years I lived at the house. Each time he claimed it was to make up for higher property taxes. Each time, I thought “independent of ‘why’, the rent is still reasonable relative to market”. When I moved out, he raised the rent by nearly $1k/month for the next guy.
I always argue for this approach on Mr. LL - raising rent on a good tenant only when covering costs, then reassessing and upping rent only when switching out tenants.
Most LL’s seem to feel you have to raise it every year by 2-3%. At least judging from that chat board.
LLs that own a lot of apartments try to be more methodical in their approach…raise rents by the same amount across the board, and only adjust downward when they reach resistance (losing tenants).
LLs that own a few houses (or one) care more about turnover and maintenance of the asset.
LLs are riding the wave of the greatest expansion of credit in history. The game is to lock in your monthly nut and sit back while rents increase to infinity. The wave has hit the beach.
So wait, now you are all admitting that rents increase?
Hi Oxy. Of course rents increase in credit expansions, economic booms and housing bubbles. Where we differ is that I think something else is in our path or already upon us. Also that long term debt is a millstone.
buying a house is a civic duty.
If you don’t, the Nobel Peace Monger will open up a fatwah on your ass.
Paying interest to TARP banks is a civic duty.
what does that make buying a Civic? a housing duty?
i bought a civic, it’s awesome! 37mpg, heated leather seats, sunroof, killer stereo system to blast my creedence tapes as i roll around town.
my creedence tapes
What are “tapes”?
Doesn’t your Civic come with a touchscreen entertainment/navigation system that allows you to connect your iPhone to the stereo via Bluetooth so you can play your itunes while driving?
I had a Civic until recently. I really did like it, kept it 12 yrs (college-earlier this yr) and got a kick out of seeing people stretching their budgets to buy audis or lexus when the civic had been paid off for yrs. Unfortunately the bottom was wearing out bc of rust & a bunch of minor things were starting to add up, couldn’t justify any more quick fixes because my low cost repair guy needs time to find parts and figure out the cheapest way to do things, which things to ignore, etc. The great mpg’s were also starting to falter.
Does your civic get a legit 37 mpg overall? My mpg’s never matched up to the advertisements. Maybe low 30s. Mine was a 2001.
And yes, wtf is a tape? :-/
2008 Civic EX-L coupe, the first year that heated leather seats were an option in the Civic (because the squadette likes to warm her @ss after a long day skiing). Yes it gets 37mpg highway, roundtrip to Aspen on less than a full tank. No it doesn’t have a tape deck, that was a Big Lebowski reference. But I did see John Fogerty perform at Telluride Bluegrass Festival in 2012.
Haters gonna hate!
I think the 2001 era civics had a lower MPG for some reason. Also, overwhelmingly city driving for short trips, less than 2-3 miles per trip. Even my cheap repair guys were saying it was time to buy a new one, doing any more work would be like putting duct tape on a leaky pipe. It was a shame bc the engine and transmission were OK.
MPG was calculated differently in 2001.
Interesting, was mpg calculated on roads instead of a track? My problem isn’t just city driving over short distances, it’s construction work –> potholes and uneven roads that aren’t fixed for 6-12 months at a time. From biking a lot, I know that I lose a ton of momentum from uneven surfaces.
The MPG number is a function of EPA emissions testing. Some wise guy back in the day figured that they could use the tailpipe emissions data used during emissions testing to generate a mpg number.
The MPG number is generated by running the vehicle in a testing lab, under lab conditions…..I’m guessing that the numbers are corrected to a “standard day” (15 degrees C/29.92in or 14.7 psi @sea level).
The test was revised/recalibrated several years ago to reflect a more realistic driving scenario.
As far as Civics are concerned……..newer Civics are significantly heavier than older ones.
As far as Civics are concerned……..newer Civics are significantly heavier than older ones.
Yup, they’re bigger and heavier than Accords used to be.
The Prius tells you your actual MPG over a span of miles.
I bought a Civic in November of 1973. Do I get a prize for being an early adaptor?
It was nice to have during the upcoming gas crisis.
It was geared really low for city driving. People would want to race me out on the highway - up until 20 mph I was ahead.
In the Good Old Days, you had to own property to vote. Then the liberals had to butt in and ruin everything.
If family wasn’s rich I would buy a house and fulfill my civic duties.
my family wasn’t so rich….
coffee…..
buy a house and finally be liberated from that 9-5?
Financial freedom is but one signature away.
(For one of us at least.)
That worked for Tom Vu:
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K853GykeGH0&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DK853GykeGH0
seminar scam, say it aint so!!!
may I introduce you to armando montelongo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-SJNYlfMVM
Generating new debt/money is a economic necessity when “cash in circulation” has a massive negative trade imbalance.
The government sees high home prices as a major driving factor in the creation of new money, and the offsetting debt needed to ensure our trade imbalance plagued economy can continue to function as it has.
The $100 bill will be switched out in Oct. Watch how fast the old bills disappear from circulation to see if there really is a lot of cash in circulation. What would it mean if most the old bills were gone in just 60 to 90 days? Or, what if you are still seeing the old bills this time next year? All this against a backdrop of the inevitable switch to a all digital money system that the bankers and money changers are moving us to. I bet most financial transactions over $500 are digital now anyway.
Physical currency is a very small percentage of “money in active circulation”. The vast majority moves from checking account to checking account without being converted into physical currency.
I have a monthly take home of about $4500. I bet I don’t spend more than $150 as physical bills in the average month.
Would you be OK with no physical money? That’s where the technology wants to go. Once every thing (you think) you own is digital it seems to me we are at the mercy of who ever controls access to the source records. Nothing to worry about I’m sure.
I’m not worried about “no physical” money from a secrecy point of view. Then again, I don’t care if the NSA tracks where my cell phone is or who I call.
I’m not a big believer in the black helicopters or giant conspiracies.
That said, I think there will remain a use for physical currency for as long as there are transaction fees on electronic transfers. For some transactions, the transaction fees are too high for the meager profit margins.
Eliminate the fees for the reader and swipes, and I’d have no problem eliminating physical currency.
Then again, I don’t buy contraband goods or do much business “under the table” to avoid taxes. Oh wait… I do hire day labor for home maintenance, remodel and repair work, and pay them in cash.
Eliminating physical currency sure would change the prostitution, illegal drug and day labor markets.
Banks have gotten slaps in the wrist for money laundering drug money, so a ban on cash might lead to higher profits for Citi.
“Eliminating physical currency sure would change the prostitution, illegal drug and day labor markets.”
No it wouldn’t. They can and will find a way around. What’s that old saying: money finds a way to go where it wants.
As for cash, I always carry some cash. It’s far faster than using plastic to buy a cold drink and my small purchases are not tracked by ANYBODY.
The NSA is only a small part of the folks tracking you. I’m more worried about the corporations.
I find it faster to swipe than count change.
I’m truly NOT worried about being tracked by anyone. Probably from my time on the other side of the spy satellite along with my current job of Master Data Management/Data Warehousing.
You track VAST amounts of data points, but simply can’t consume every detail of every point. You use the vast amounts of data to look for patterns, then look into the detail only when a pattern has emerged and one data point has emerged as a vortex.
Think of it like TurboTax. They process tens of millions of returns. While that are not allowed to release the SSN, income or tax on any individual, they are allowed to sum up the data and release info on changes in median income, shifts in demographics, trends in charitable or medical deductions claimed, etc.
Track me all you want. My name is Darrell Shimel. My zip is 85306. My email is dshimel at hotmail. A quick search of public data will show my address, marital status, how much I owe on my house, what I pay in real estate taxes, where I work, etc. My home phone is 548 2630. My cell is 541 4001. You should be able to figure out the area code from the zip.
I moved here from 80915. Before that I was in Naval housing in Hawaii, San Diego and Long Beach. Before that I was a teen in San Dimas, CA.
I really do not understand this fear of being tracked that so many people seem to have,
Do not break the law, and you’ll never be lifted out of the status of noise in the data to the level of suspect. Don’t associate with bad guys, and no one will ever care where your phone was or who you called.
Speaking of which, I’ve tried emailing you there to no avail. Is it safe to assume you have no interest in corresponding off-blog? It’s fine if that’s the case, but I’m just curious since you’ve posted it multiple times…
I tried the same multiple times the last time “Darryl” began this same charade. There is nobody by that name BTW.
“I tried the same multiple times the last time “Darryl” began this same charade. There is nobody by that name BTW.”
Go here:
http://www.city-data.com/maricopa-county/R/Redfield-Road-54.html
See first item.
Darrell may never have broken any laws, or associated with any of those asininely-named “bad guys” (by whose determination are they “bad” and what does “bad” entail, btw?) but he’s going to be in for a terrible shock when someone in a position of authority over him, for reasons of their own devising, accuses him of having done so.
Presumed innocent? Yeah, right….
Sheep to slaughter.
“Make it a matter of personal policy; Don’t Borrow Money.”
You got that right!
just for you, know when to hold em and when to fold em!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4nJ1YEAp4
Why hold a rapidly depreciating asset like a house? And as you know, your losses increase each day as a result of financing.
Get out while you still can.
So, allow the economy to crash as the money currently in circulation drains via trade imbalances?
Or are you suggesting that we attack and reverse the trade imbalances that made run-away debt generation a necessity in the first place?
Falling housing prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is the end of the world?
Now I know you can lie without being a drama queen about it. You’ve done so many times here.
Try again.
Where did I say that not buying a house would be the end of the world? Hint, I didn’t.
I was responding to the comment “Don’t borrow money”.
What do you think the dollar is in the modern economy? How do you think dollars are created?
Hint: they are a claim on someone’s future labor, because that someone borrowed them into existence, and in the future will have to trade their labor for dollars so that they can repay their debt.
No debt, no dollars. No dollars, no economy.
Dance for us Darryl dance!….. Now do the backpedal.
Hint: they are a claim on someone’s future labor, because that someone borrowed them into existence, and in the future will have to trade their labor
They might trade something other than their labor: their “stuff”, their investment prowess (e.g. generating dollars by taking them from others), their scamming abilities, etc.
You need to broaden the model a little…
From Wiki:
“The strong dollar policy is the United States economic policy based on the assumption that a strong exchange rate of the United States dollar is in the interests of the United States and the whole world. It is said to be also driven by a desire to encourage foreign bondholders to buy more Treasury securities. The United States Secretary of the Treasury occasionally states that the US. supports a strong dollar. Since the implementation of thie policy, the dollar has declined substantially. Despite this, the policy keeps inflation low, encourages foreign investment, and maintains the currency’s role in the global financial system.”
Goebbels couldn’t have done it better.
He wasn’t an economist you know….
Central Bank Acts to Strengthen Brazilian Real
Sergio Moraes/Reuters
The mint in Rio de Janeiro. The real has lost more than 15 percent of its value against the dollar.
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
Published: August 23, 2013
Brazil’s central bank announced a $60 billion program on Thursday aimed at halting the slide of the Brazilian real, making Brazil the latest emerging economy to seek to prop up its sagging currency.
Similar moves have been made by central banks in Indonesia and Turkey. The action highlights growing fears on the part of policy makers in these countries that the recent slide in their currencies poses a serious economic threat given the high levels of dollar-denominated debt that their national banks and companies have taken on.
As local currencies weaken, dollar debts increase in value and become increasingly difficult to service.
…
Related
Muted Fears of Contagion as Asian Currencies Fall (August 23, 2013)
DealBook: Currency Volatility Is Unnerving Investors (August 20, 2013)
Welcome to the word cloud.
I think we gave up on the strong dollar policy when we pushed interest rates sub-inflation.
The problem is that our trade partners have a weaker currency policy than us.
The problem is that our trade partners have a weaker currency policy than us.
Race to the bottom. baby! Everyone wants to be a net exporter, selling to the customer of last resort.
NSA) Are you a good dissenter, or a bad dissenter?
Dorothy) Who, me! I - I’m not a dissenter at all. I’m Dorothy Gale, from Kansas.
NSA) Oh! Well, is that the dissenter?
Dorothy) Who, Toto? Toto’s my dog.
cueing up ‘clampdown’ by the clash:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/aug/26/nsa-leaks-david-cameron-newspapers
Kansas is at dissenter of the country. We all know that.
BA DUMP BA!
Bricks Rain Down in Lansing Michigan
Police and fire responded to an incident in downtown Lansing near the Biggby Coffee at 115 West Allegan Street at 4:20 Saturday afternoon.
A HAZMAT team and a technical rescue team rushed to the scene. First responders evacuated the area and closed some streets after a piece of the roof fell off the Capitol Hall building.
Firefighters say pieces of the roof hit a gas meter on an adjacent building and caused a gas leak. “A deep bass, some shaking,” said Nicholas Ketchum of the incident. He was working in the building next door at the time. “It felt like a truck going by and a rain of bricks and dust and mortar. It was just a lot of debris and a lot of commotion.”
The building, standing ten stories tall, was built in 1916, according to the city assessor’s web site. It houses offices for several companies.
Building management said the timing couldn’t have been better for something like this to happen.
“Often times you’ll find people in the alleyway drinking coffee or smoking cigarettes or reading the newspaper right in the spot where it crashed,” said Ketchum.
Engineers are investigating why the part of the roof collapsed in the first place.
“More cheap dollars thrown into the economy will make the inevitable collapse more severe.”
No question.
Imagine a town with 3 people, a banker, a factory worker and the factory owner.
The factory worker goes into the bank, borrows some money, then spends it to buys goods that he manufactures. The factory owner receives the money and deposits it into the bank.
The bank, now having more reserves, can make more loans, so offers a loan to the factory worker. The factory worker takes out another loan, buys the goods from the factory owner. The factory owner receives the profits from the purchase and deposits them into the bank.
The bank, having more deposits, can now make more loans…..
Repeat until the factory worker is 6.5X his annual income in debt.
NOW WHAT?
Well, if the factory worker stops borrowing, he has to stop buying, meaning the profits to the factory owner go away.
We don’t want the factory owner’s profits to go away. SO, what do we do?
Darryl: trade deficit blah blah blah blah.
You’re a bonafide liar and fraud Darryl.
Please, please answer this simple question.
Why do you insist on spelling my name incorrectly?
You’re not interested in the truth Darryl and youre not going to let that truth get in your way.
We don’t want the factory owner’s profits to go away. SO, what do we do?
Well we certainly don’t give the worker a raise ’cause that would be just plain commie.
Beside, CITI Group says in its 2006 Plutonomy Report that we don’t need consumers to keep our 75% retail economy working.
So the obvious answer is…. bailouts!
We need to ask the Fed™ what to do next. (SFW)
Darrell
“Well, if the factory worker stops borrowing, he has to stop buying, meaning the profits to the factory owner go away.
We don’t want the factory owner’s profits to go away. SO, what do we do?”
Adding, “and if the worker stops buying he can no longer repay -”
Say each transaction is $100.
Your illustration highlights Velocity and Leverage - generally what our economy relies on. You have shown that the FW borrows $650 all on the basis of $100 going in and out of the bank. In reality, the banks today have levered that $100 to $3,000 (net of Fed reserve required).
The FO now requires a loan but the bank only has $100 so he goes inter-day to his buddies and borrows the money which he repays when the FO deposits it back.
Of course when the debt goes bad he gets his big buddy to print some money so he can sell the debt to his taxpayer funded big buddy.
When his big buddy prints too much money leverage is reduced as are bank profits. Sad but who cares.
Now velocity - I care. If you have 1T cash or 2T cash either can accomplish the same level of activity especially with our electronic systems today. If that other T isn’t being used it carries a very severe cost - inefficiency costs which slow the economy. They are your deficits, trade imbalances, exchange rates, cost of un-borrowed funds, values, employee performances -
They distort the economy to where central planning thinks - and the rest goes down the drain.
My answer ? Lend the FO money by printing it.
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Not that I disagree with this quote or your (RAL) positions, but Suze also says that owning your home outright well before retirement is one of the smartest things people can do.
I’ve never seen her qualify this statement to warn people against high prices. To the contrary, I’ve seen her say that it’s OK to buy a house at 3x income, something I disagree with.
“Suze also says that owning your home outright well before retirement is one of the smartest things people can do.”
In other words, taking out a mortgage is the dumbest thing people can do.
I wouldn’t use her as a quote on the “Debt is slavery” thing then. Because she treats some debts differently than others. I don’t think you need Suze, doesn’t every religious text includes a screed against debt?
Because she treats some debts differently than others.
But she treats all men the same.
She said it Liberace.
She also told the “How am I doing” person that was on this week that she needed to buy a house so she could reduce her need for income in retirement. Flat out said buy a place to live.
The idiot you’re referring to stated “I lost $300k on a house”; fact.
Now do you think Suze took into consideration the kind of spendthrift moron she was dealing with before making that recommendation?
Time horizons matter a lot, something that RAL doesn’t account for (along with lot prices).
If I’m 63 or 64 (whatever) I wouldn’t care nearly as much about future price declines as I would at half that age. I guess if you live to be healthy well into your 80s or beyond, there could be some regret. But I doubt it. My FIL is 83, he is just happy to even be healthy and see family.
Oh absolutely time horizon matters. Especially when it comes to taking losses in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. And that kind of loss is reality if you buy a house at current grossly inflated asking prices.
“But she treats all men the same.”
And all men see her as a treat.
“Mortgage delinquencies take a sharp turn up”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100914292
And they’ll continue rising for as long as transactions occur at massively inflated prices.
Now you’re quoting LPS and listening to Diana Olick?
Go to the source. Read the LPS report. Here are some quotes from the report:
“Delinquencies jumped almost 10% M/M but the quarterly increase was below average vs. prior years” - Page 3, first bullet.
“The trend for serious DQs is still down; rate close to pre-crisis average” - Page 9, Title of page.
http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/CommunicationCenter/DataReports/MortgageMonitor/201306MortgageMonitor/MortgageMonitorJune2013.pdf
Housing Analyst is not interested in actual data. He’s trying to make a point, and he’s not going to let truth get in the way.
Quote some more FR and realtor tripe Darryl……
You know you’re an extremist when EVERYONE is to the center of you.
I know on a centrist (realist), because the extremists on both ends of the argument attack me equally.
25 MILLION excess empty houses Darryl.
Now RUN from it.
“A ‘housing recovery’ is falling housing prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.”
Considering housing prices were never allowed to correct to the long term price trend, it appears housing hasn’t recovered. Nor will it recover…… until prices fall to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
“Just for the record; there is no shortage of housing. Not in California, not in Tokyo, not anywhere. And there will come a day (again) when the media will tell us, ‘there’s a glut of houses for sale in….’, and regale us with sob stories, ‘I was doing great until the economy went south and my income went away and I can’t get rid of this damned house!’”
~Ben Jones, August 8, 2013
This false notion…. this lie….. that there is a shortage of housing in the US is laughable considering there are tens of millions of excess empty houses out there. A sea of them. And it’s growing. Day by day.
Just wait until the Baby Boomer retirements and die-offs kick into high gear. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. All-cash Canadian and Chinese investors, should prepare themselves to become the next generation of Housing Bubble bagholders.
When will the BB die offs kick into high gear? I’m thinking 2020 or so?
Unlike Housing Analysts Predictions, we’re not going to see the number of USA households shrink by some 25 million as the Boomers die off.
For the last 20 years, the number of live births in the USA has been right at 4 million a year, matching the average for the baby boom.
What this means is that as the Boomers die off, an approximately equal number of new adults will be moving out of their parents houses.
For the last 30-40 years, we’ve been growing at about 1% per year. That means some 2.5 million to 3 million more people. People died off at 2 million to 2.5 million a year but were born at 4 million a year, plus 1 million legal and almost half a million illegal immigrants.
What the Boomer die off will do is convert the 1.5 million to 2 million domestic population grown to virtual 0. But to that, you’re still going to add legal and illegal immigrants.
SO, instead of adding 3 million more people (1.2 million households), we’ll only be adding 1 million (300K new households).
When we add in replacement of existing stock at 1% per year (100 year life expectancy) on older houses, 50 million existing housing units that are 60+ years old, gets us another half million houses a year.
What this means is that despite being off 66% from peak (2+ million houses a year down to 700Kish new houses a year), our current construction rate is right about what we’re going to need for the coming demographic shift of Boomer die off. 400-500K replacement and 300K new households.
Any rebound in construction from current levels is just going to be adding to the existing excess stock.
we’re not going to see the number of USA households shrink by some 25 million as the Boomers die off.
But…but…we’ve repeated it so many times, it must be true.
Generally, after you point out the demographics, they will then pivot to the ”well, they’re all in student debt and unemployed” argument. This is actually a better argument. I’ve never understood why it has to be premised with the ”we’ll shrink to a tiny country when the boomers die” canard.
They spout it off because it resonates. Everyone has been hammering on how the economy will change as we age, so statements about significant change based on demographic arguments sound good…even with faulty logic.
What are you guys yammering about? The change in population in the United States would be zero if it weren’t for immigration. I guess that’s why Obama wants to import 25 million illegal aliens.
The US would be entirely made up of Native Americans if it weren’t for immigration.
Rental:
Were you under the impresion that the Native Americans sprang from the soil over here? Besides, there was no US until the white man created it.
Fine, amend my statement to read 0 people would be occupying the land currently known as the United States of America if it weren’t for immigration.
And your point about population growth is incorrect. Currently births outnumber deaths in the US by approximately 1.6MM per year. Population growth is greater than that, which is where immigration comes into play.
The U.S. birth rate already crashed to record lows, but it’s destined to get even worse, as young people burdened with crushing student debt loads don’t form households or have kids.
November 29, 2012
U.S. Birth Rate Falls to a Record Low; Decline Is Greatest Among Immigrants
by Gretchen Livingston and D’Vera Cohn
Overview
The U.S. birth rate dipped in 2011 to the lowest ever recorded, led by a plunge in births to immigrant women since the onset of the Great Recession.
The overall U.S. birth rate, which is the annual number of births per 1,000 women in the prime childbearing ages of 15 to 44, declined 8% from 2007 to 2010. The birth rate for U.S.-born women decreased 6% during these years, but the birth rate for foreign-born women plunged 14%—more than it had declined over the entire 1990-2007 period.1 The birth rate for Mexican immigrant women fell even more, by 23%.
…
What this tells us is the household formation cohort isn’t going to crater for 20-30 years. Do I care? Chances are I will have cratered myself by then.
Do we have a dip because of the economy and lack of jobs? yes we do. That could change in as little as 5 months as boomers are no longer tied to their jobs for insurance. Or it more likely will change over the coming 10 years as boomers retire.
At this point housing demand is more about economics than demographics.
What this tells us is the household formation cohort isn’t going to crater for 20-30 years.
I’m not so sure. The feeling I get from the post Gen-X crowd is one of minimalism. Lots of friends, lots of experiences, but not lots of possessions. Wasn’t there a story last week about them shunning cars in favor of bikes or public transportation?
“Household formation” already crater as it fell to WW2 levels and has hovered there since. And it’s not going anywhere fast.
My parents are the front edge of the boom, and turn 67 this year. The front edge age cohorts of boomers are still smaller than more recent generations, the boom didn’t really kick into higher gear until later.
2020 is early.
25 MILLION excess empty houses with an additional 35 MILLION just beginning to hit the market right now as boomers die off.
“25 MILLION excess empty houses with an additional 35 MILLION just beginning to hit the market right now as boomers die off.”
LoL. Because not a single child has been born in the last 20 years, right?
I don’t see how ANYONE can take anything you say seriously. Your stats can’t even pass the smell test.
Go ahead and cover your eyes pretending they don’t exist Darryl.
How long ago and how many times have you been proven a liar?
“Go ahead and cover your eyes pretending they don’t exist Darryl.”
Who is Darryl?
It is you that is pretending that there are no children.
“How long ago and how many times have you been proven a liar?”
I don’t know. How about you point out something I’ve said that has been a lie?
Are there, or are there not, children that will become adults in the next 20 years?
Good boy… Keep your eyes covered and give us another excuse because that’s all you got. Excuses for going deep into debt on what is always a depreciating asset at a grossly inflated price.
You’re a liar and an apologist.
Gen X and Y combined outnumber the boomers.
You really aren’t going to any significant changes in the economy after the boomers are gone UNLESS Gen X & Y get their act together and force changes.
Pre-boomers and boomers outnumber Gen x and y.
See how that works?
Rate this housing purchase: Decadent or shrewd?
TL;DR version: $51MM in guaranteed salary in next 6 yrs plus $29MM signing bonus, $1.4MM house purchase.
—————————————-
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/ravens-insider/bal-baltimore-ravens-quarterback-joe-flacco-buys-house-from-his-former-center-matt-birk-20130823,0,7560330.story
For four years, six-time Pro Bowl center Matt Birk snapped the football to Ravens star quarterback Joe Flacco.
Since Birk retired in February, the veteran lineman has passed another valuable commodity onto Flacco with the sale of his Baltimore County home to the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player quarterback for $1.385 million, according to records.
Flacco purchased the home from Birk earlier this year after the quarterback signed a $120.6 million contract that included a $29 million signing bonus and a total of $51 million in guaranteed salary.
The modern single-family luxury home was built on just over one acre of land and includes a garage and fireplace.
Professional athletes in several sports, including the NFL, frequently sell real estate to each other due to familiarity and financial status.
He’s overpaid. Only people who actually “produce” something of value like Bain or Goldman employees deserve to get paid that much.
At least he’ll have a nice house to live out his golden years in when he develops Alzheimers in his 40s from concussions.
Nah, he’ll beat his pregnant GF to death before that happens.
“Nah, he’ll beat his pregnant GF to death before that happens.”
Wow, is it his or the best friend?
Besides, why risk doing time if he, “signed a $120.6 million contract that included a $29 million signing bonus and a total of $51 million in guaranteed money?” He could afford a hen house of fine chicken a la Tiger W.
It was a reference to the concussion/Alzheimer’s thing. They all seem to fly over the cuckoo’s nest after one too many hard tackles.
Martin Luther King III:
“However, sadly, the tears of Trayvon Martin’s mother and father remind us that, far too frequently, the color of one’s skin remains a license to profile, to arrest and even to murder with no regard for the content of one’s character,” he said, calling for “stand your ground” self-defense laws to be repealed in states where they have been enacted.
Indeed, despite the abiding focus on race in America, several speakers managed to sneak in a plug on behalf of a variety of progressive causes. Women’s reproductive rights, gay rights, climate change, public education, organized labor, gun violence, immigration reform, student loan debt foregiveness — all received an airing during the speeches, making the rally something of a clarion call for left-wing activism.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57599979/march-on-washingtons-50th-anniversary-commemoration-draws-tens-of-thousands/
Since the Democratic Party is in bed with the 1%ers on economic issues, they are forced to use social issues to create differentiation between themselves and Republicans.
And, you didn’t expect the 50th anniversary of MLK’s march to be a clarion call for Right-Wing activism, did you?
As for Martin/Zimmerman, there was never much chance of a conviction, and it has nothing to do with race.
One person on top of another, the person on the bottom having bruises and abrasions. The guy on top has no wounds other than a gun shot wound to the chest.
I don’t care what color they are, the guy on bottom will get off on self-defense claims. Add in the phone conversations, the screams for help heard on 911 calls, the length of time of the struggle.
Heck, racial politics is the ONLY reason this case even went to trial.
Maybe Zimmerman “deserved” a beat down in the eyes of many. However, by law, giving someone a beat down, deserved or not, means that someone can shoot and kill you and have it ruled self-defense.
The law doesn’t make accommodations for “But he deserved the beat down”.
And guess what. Profiling is NOT illegal in most cases. If a cop profiles, evidence gathered may not be admissible in court, but that doesn’t make it illegal.
The case NEVER should have gone to trial.
It’s the same laundry list of libtard “issues” that Occupy Wall Street piled on when they should have stayed focused on the 0.1%.
And I’ve asked this here before, how will legalizing 10+ million illegals (the Shamnesty) benefit working class and middle class black American citizens?
I spent time at the Occupation here in Phoenix. What a joke.
1000 failed movements all trying to make “the issue” their personal issue.
We put weeks into trying to come up with a “top 3″ issues. What we came up with was:
1) Too much money in politics, allowing the few rich too large a voice.
2) Big Banks… What about them, I’m not sure, but Big Banks.
3) Gay rights, womens’ rights, animal rights, indigenous rights, workers’ rights, homeless rights’ to sleep and crud in parks, legalize marijuana, end the wars, 9/11 was a hoax, universal health care, citizenship for illegals, organic food, democracy is the rape of the minority by the majority, end capitalism, eliminate all borders…
Every time we tried to narrow the focus, the people whose focus was being removed would not allow it. Sure, they wanted a “top 3″, as long as their pet issue was on the list.
Every time we tried to narrow the focus, the people whose focus was being removed would not allow it. Sure, they wanted a “top 3″, as long as their pet issue was on the list.
And people wonder how TPTB remain in charge.
Darrell,
I did the same thing here in DFW. I went to several OWS rallies and the biggest problem was too many issues diluting the main thrust of the protest. Money has completely corrupted our government and may someday lead to it’s downfall. The Bill Moyer’s interview this weekend with Mark Leibovich (author of “This Town”) illustrates this beautify. Up twinkles to ya dude!
Thats where the most radical idea is…public financing of all elections…everyone on the ballot gets the same amount of money….even the right to lifers and the communists…..or the rent is too high party…..no pacs no personal contributions no fundraising dinners at $40,000 a plate…nope zip
Then at least 5 debates, and it goes to 5 then 3 candidates, there will never be 2 ever again in a debate… unless well there is only 2 people on the ballot.
Too much money in politics, allowing the few rich too large a voice.
Since the Democratic Party is in bed with the 1%ers on economic issues,
Seriously, how many times do I have to post this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
The real problem in this country? You can fix our kind of stupid.
See that above link? Just 2 months later, J6P voted for the GOP to control the House.
We have the government we deserve and it’s going to get worse before it gets better because the clue-X-4 isn’t working anymore.
Key line from the story:
“Democratic backers vow to make the vote a campaign issue in the November 2 congressional election. ”
Meaningless gestures, they know will fail, just so they can make it an issue in the next election.
It is like Republicans voting for a law banning flag burning or requiring the Ten Commandments be posted in class rooms. They know it is doomed to fail. They just want to be able to say “the other guy voted for flag burning and against The Bible”.
The bubble that wasn’t a bubble:
“The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities has risen 14 percent relative to income over the past 12 months to 16 times earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Valuations last climbed this fast in the final year of the 1990s technology bubble, just before the index began a 49 percent tumble. The rally that started in March 2009 has now outlasted the average gain since 1946, the data show.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-25/multiples-expanding-fastest-since-dot-com-bubble-as-rally-ages.html
“Valuations last climbed this fast in the final year of the 1990s technology bubble, just before the index began a 49 percent tumble.”
Always remember that bubbles are only visible through the lens of the rear-view mirror.
I disagree with this.
I could see tech stocks were in a bubble as early as 1997. As a computer programmer, I could see the number of companies with business plans that would NEVER be profitable that were going IPO for huge paydays.
I saw the housing bubble as early as 2004. A guy at work told me I should buy a house near ASU and rent it out. When I pointed out that based on rent and costs, I’d be losing $500 a month. His counter was that I’d make all that, and more back based on house price gains.
My counter-counter was “It’s a horrid deal for me, but someone will buy it off of me later for more money, making it an even worse deal for him.” He didn’t get it. He asked “How is it a horrid deal for you if you’re selling in a couple years for a much higher price?”
You can see a bubble in the present, if you’re not blinded by greed and ignorance.
Any time the investment requires a “greater fool” to be profitable, it’s a bubble.
“I disagree with this.”
For your benefit, I promise to include my sarcasm tags the next time I make a sarcastic post.
there is no bubble until wall street decides so. Until then the media and jim cramer will tell you its a great time to invest in equities.
Its a big club and ……………………………………..
Try not to buy yourself a pig in lipstick!
Aug. 26, 2013, 6:00 a.m. EDT
Buying a ‘flipped’ home? Be careful
More flipped properties on the market; buyers need to be careful
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Home buyers always need to have an eye out for shoddy renovation work and defect coverups before purchasing a home. But when it’s a “flipped” home they’re considering, it’s wise to be even more careful, making sure the investor didn’t cut corners while prepping the home for sale.
These days, a greater number of single-family homes are being flipped, or bought and resold within six months. In the first half of the year, flips were up 19% from a year ago and up 74% from the first half of 2011, according to data from RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listings website.
There is money to be made by investors who flip these homes, many of whom believe they can make better returns investing in property than in the stock market, said Daniel LeMier, a professional engineer who does residential engineering and foundation remediation work in Denver. After all, many markets are in need of housing inventory, and people who can rehab rundown homes can add to the for-sale stock.
“A lot of these guys who buy these homes to remodel and flip them do a good job,” said Bill Jacques, president of the American Society of Home Inspectors, as well as a home inspector in Charleston, S.C. But, “there’s always going to be the person to put lipstick on a pig and sell it. They try to honey up these houses and paint them, put some new light fixtures in and make people think they’re in new and good shape.”
How do you make sure you don’t buy a home that has been renovated cosmetically, with serious underlying issues beneath the fresh paint? Below are some tips.
…
Didn’t inspect the house? You deserve it!
Waiving an inspection is a sure sign of a mania.
The radio realtors that come on DC news radio have said sales are so fast, with bidding wars, that waiving the inspection is a necessity if your offer is to have any hope of acceptance.
the wisdom of amy hoak:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buying-a-flipped-home-be-careful-2013-08-26?dist=lcountdown
This report seems to paint a muddled picture.
Aug. 26, 2013, 8:44 a.m. EDT
U.S. business orders sink 7.3% in July
Fewer contracts for Boeing jets, military hardware drive decline
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Orders for big-ticket U.S. goods sank 7.3% in July, mostly because of fewer contracts for jetliners and large military goods, the government said Monday.
The decline in orders for durable goods — the first in four months — was somewhat expected after a steady increase in demand since spring. Yet the July report shows little change in the overall trajectory of a slowly growing U.S. manufacturing sector.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected orders to drop a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in July, mainly because of a sharp decline in orders for Boeing commercial jets. Aircraft orders plunged 52.3% after runups of 33.8% in June and 67.6% in May.
Boeing said it signed 90 contracts in July, down from 287 in the prior month. Orders for expensive aircraft can swing sharply from month to month and skew the durables report.
Orders for cars and trucks, however, rose 0.5% as demand for autos remained strong.
Stripping out the volatile transportation sector, orders fell a much smaller 0.6%, the Commerce Department said.
Makers of computers, electronics, electrical equipment and appliances saw orders decline in the 3% to 4% range. Orders were soft for other major industrial sectors as well.
…
Aug. 26, 2013, 6:15 a.m. EDT
How to invest extra cash in this market
By Michael Fabian
Investors of all shapes and sizes often times find themselves sitting on a boatload of cash with no clear-cut plan for making a sound investment decision.
Life events such as an inheritance or a 401(k) rollover due to retirement, or even more everyday reasons such as dumping every bond you own in response to changes in interest rates.
There are literally countless reasons for outsize cash positions. However, it’s the everyday reasons that tend to be at the crux of individual investor’s problems, since many retirees and market participants don’t want to be active investors. They don’t want to “time” the market but they commonly do just that when volatility rises.
I’ve said it many times before; everyone is an aggressive investor in a bull market. However, bear markets or large corrections, bring in a swarm of born-again conservative investors that swear off large positions in stocks. I have witnessed it first hand in response to the psychological and cyclical nature of the markets, and I’ve always encouraged investors to take a step back and search deep within their soul to determine the exact level of risk they are ultimately comfortable with.
…
“A sea of excess empty houses…. millions of them with massively inflated prices attached.”
And it’s for that reason that housing demand is at 14 year lows and falling precipitously.
Couldn’t a big drop in investor sentiment coupled with a minuscule correction in stock prices be an indication more stock market price declines are coming?
Aug. 25, 2013, 8:02 a.m. EDT
Stock investor sentiment sinks, teeing up rebound
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Bulls have turned tail and are on the run, according to investment-sentiment surveys, leaving traders to gauge whether the usually contrarian indicator means stocks could be poised to test all-time highs set earlier this month.
…
theres a bull market somewhere!!! Where do you think the money will flow next? What looks undervalued if anything? Or do you continue to reach for yield?
Value investor = growth @ a reasonable price.
Or do you continue to reach for yield?’
I don’t think so, Maybe Tech is up next ?
new version of the ipad?
csco just laid off 4000 people. Tech cant unload their product. Everybody’s got what there selling and not upgrading very fast.Hows that new version of windows working out?
I used to work in data storage products. The word that upper management always used was that “data was exploding” and that the amount of data out there keeps growing and thus the market for short, medium and long term storage keeps growing by leaps and bounds.
Yet, the purveyors of data storage products, perhaps with the exception of EMC, have done abysmally over the years. StorageTek bit the dust and got bought out by Sun (and is now part of Oracle). HP’s storage biz is in the dumps.
So if “booming storage” is struggling, I can’t even begin to imagine how consumer products with their razor thin profit margins are doing. And I type this on my 7 year old desktop which runs just fine.
csco just laid off 4000 people.
And those are the newsworthy layoffs. Most corporations do targeted layoffs, 20 losers here, 15 sayonara-sams there, etc. IBM also had a big layoff recently.
My next door neighbor got his walking papers from big blue. He was joking about bagging groceries at King Soopers. The guy is in his late 50’s. It might not be a joke about working at King’s. About 10 years ago the other neighbor was also let go from Big Blue. He was also a bureaucrat, not a techie and he was in his 40’s. He couldn’t find work, even with his fresh MBA from CU, and gave up. He tried to start a photography biz, but that fizzled. He and his Methodist Pastor wife were divorced within a year.
Those laid off Lucky Ducks should have lived the Mr Money Mustache lifestyle and banked cash while they were working. Housing in Loveland isn’t that expensive compared with bubbly Boulder/Denver.
Bill in Los Angeles (or Orange County) = WIN
“And I type this on my 7 year old desktop which runs just fine.”
Ditto.
In fact, I’d rather have this PC with my out of support XP than buy a new PC with Windows 7 or Windows 8.
IT contacted me about replacing this desktop with something newer since the OS is falling off support. I agreed to re-image it to RedHat Linux so I wouldn’t have to get a new desktop or a Windows “upgrade”.
As for storage being so much in demand, the problem is that the disks got larger but profit margins didn’t.
A 200meg hard drive selling for $60 in 1990 generated about $20 profit. A 2 Gig drive selling for $60 in 2010 generated about $20 profit.
Heck, my current employer is making a huge investment in “in memory” database technology. RAM has gotten so cheap, that it is cheaper, and WAY faster to buy big slow hard drives, and lots of fast RAM. The disk just becomes a backup for when the machine crashes or a monthly reboot.
With in-memory DB you can get massive compression using pointer substitution that is simply not achievable in on-disk DB.
The result of moving to in-memory will be death to the high performance physical storage market, the only segment of the market with any profit margin to speak of.
Housing in Loveland isn’t that expensive compared with bubbly Boulder/Denver.
It isn’t. The couple who divorced were doing OK financially, they had a lot of equity in the house, which they sold. She was transferred to a congregation in Wyoming, and that was when they split. I suspect that he wasn’t coping well with his transition to Lucky Ducky status and depending on his wife to pay the bills.
Not a lot of bureaucratic work in Wyoming either.
So if “booming storage” is struggling, I can’t even begin to imagine how consumer products with their razor thin profit margins are doing.
I get to see it up close and personal. What’s booming in storage is the latest and greatest…SSDs->PCIe->DDR SSD…
The Facebooks and the HFT types want their super fast servers and fast, expensive storage is part of it. Everything else is commodity.
I worked for STK. They were at the right place at the right time to make some money for a while but they were not a well run company. If you’re going to survive in commodities you better be run really well.
The result of moving to in-memory will be death to the high performance physical storage market
Good points, but there’s more to life than just databases.
If you had $40 trillion to invest, where would you put it?
Asteroid mining.
No, I’m not joking.
Sold in 2 days. Pretty beat up and smells of cigarette smoke. Needs a new balcony plus all the other items listed below. Nice big yard.
Back-Up/Contingent
$469,990 3 3 (2 0 1 0) 1622 11543 sf (Public Records) 1989 SFD 7/20/2013
Address: 15420 Doris Ct Tract Code: Campus Hills Classic-341
Moorpark 93021
Public Remarks: Standard Sale. This is a HUGE Cosmetic Fixer but a great floor-plan, a fabulous end of cul-de-sac location backing up to parkland and a unbelievably large flat fully useable nicely landscaped yard. Two patio areas, built in BBQ and Fireplace in one patio area…lots of privacy. But hang on, it’s a mess. Lots of clutter. Needs carpet and paint and a good cleaning…probably needs some new cabinets or refurbishing…This is a hard to find location an even harder to find lot with plenty of privacy but you will need to work on the inside. Its priced with these issues in mind and the seller is realistic and motivated.
Imagine the losses for the sucker that paid that price.
Do you think he has any idea how little it costs to replace that depreciating dump?
Imagine the losses for the sucker that paid that price.”
I can imagine it smelling like cigarette smoke for many many years..
“Resale housing is currently prices 40% higher than new construction costs (materials, labor and profit).
And considering new construction prices are massively inflated, resale housing is overpriced by 250%.
Land?
There a globe full of it Darryl and 95% of it goes undeveloped.
Hint for you…… You’re desperately looking to apologize for massively inflated housing prices.
Why is that Darryl?
“You’re desperately looking to apologize for massively inflated housing prices.”
I’m doing no such thing.
On a national and global level, based on incomes and supply, I think houses are, on average, over priced.
Really, the only thing we disagree on is universality.
Your position is that every single house for sale is MASSIVELY overpriced and do for a massive crash.
My position is that most, but not EVERY SINGLE house is massively overpriced.
Now, to this minor difference of opinion, you like to toss out statistics that clearly can’t pass the smell test. I don’t understand why you feel the need to discredit EVERYTHING you say by using data that is so obviously incorrect.
For some odd reason, you like being wrong. Sometimes it is little things, like always spelling my name incorrectly. Other times, it is data that can’t pass the most basic smell test.
35 million additional, empty, excess houses as Boomers die off. Right, because not a SINGLE baby has been born in the last 25 years…
I guess I should change the question from “Why do you insist on spelling my name incorrectly?” to “Why do you go so far out of your way to be wrong?”
Sure you are. Excuse, after apology after more excuses.
You don’t like data and what you do provide doesn’t pass the smell test.
Get with it program Darryl.
“Housing as a rental investment is a huge gamble considering it’s negative cash flow at current inflated asking prices of resale housing.
Beware.”
Exactly.
Bay Area Housing Demand Collapses A Whopping 32% YoY
http://picpaste.com/pics/e8cea4626f00e76bf4b20ef426f0adae.1376499796.png
I’m confused? Are you saying that demand is the same as number sold?
When I took economics, demand was a line or curve on a graph indicating how many would sell at what price, with higher price resulting in fewer sales.
Changing demand was not simply moving along the set of points, but rather the movement of the set of points on the graph.
Price goes up and number of sales falls is not indicative that the demand has changed, only that we’re at a different price point on the line/curve.
You’re not confused Darryl. Youre a fraud.
Beautiful day in DC today.
http://picpaste.com/30e5818926edfd8ed9981818bee24157.jpg
I was here just a few min ago –> http://picpaste.com/pics/a1cb09090f57ca4ac553bc60adc5ffd7.1377535788.jpg
Saw this outside –> http://picpaste.com/12bf75ff6970566b585fb78d0d77d7ff.jpg
LOL (homeless person who set up a protest shrine between Fed Circuit and White House as a pretense so Capitol Police wouldn’t arrest him… he sleeps in his shack during the day)
What are all those people in line for? Are they handing out free Obamaphones?
By John W. Schoen | CNBC – 7 hours ago
Home prices are going up, up, up, but it’s not a bubble just yet.
The surge in home prices over the past year may have some homebuyers wondering if the market has gotten ahead of itself. Rising interest rates aside, however, housing prices in most parts of the country appear to have plenty of room to move higher if the wider economic recovery remains intact.
The latest data on price gains Thursday showed home prices advanced 7.7 percent in the year through June, a rise that has fed on itself as fence-sitting homebuyers move to buy before prices rise further.
West coast housing markets have seen the biggest gains. The Federal Housing Finance Agency report showed prices in June were 17 percent higher than a year earlier in the Pacific area, which includes California and Washington.
House prices jumped 11 percent in the Mountain region, which included Nevada and Arizona. The Middle Atlantic region-New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania-had the smallest increase, at 2.5 percent.
Imagine the losses you’ll take if you buy a house at current massively inflated asking prices. And your losses double if you finance it.
“Home prices are going up, up, up, but it’s not a bubble just yet.”
And how many private lenders are financing these over priced homes to borrows whose incomes have been flat since the early nineties? Yeah, no bubble here folks; keep moving…nothing to see…
…..”as far as “baby boomers” go, they’re exiting SFR’s and entering assisted living facilities. This trend will continue leaving an additional 35 MILLION excess empty houses on the market. That doesn’t include the already bloated inventory of 20-25 MILLION excess empty houses.
The boomer retirement fad has long since passed years ago.”
The late boomers (1955-on) are a lot poorer that the early boomers.
Just to do a quick recap of the history since 1973 (when I turned 16, and got my first job)
1973-75 = Recession
1975-80 = Stagflation…..most people’s paychecks were not “indexed” to inflation, and if they were, it was calculated at the end of the year, so your “indexing” was a year behind.
1980-84 = Second oil shock, recession. End of payroll “indexing” to inflation. Beginning of “massaging” of the inflation rate.
1986 = 25 million illegals given amnesty, in exchange for stricter immigration laws (which nobody bothered to enforce).
Tax “reform”, where all of J6P’s deductions went away, to “simplify” the tax code.
Offloading of pension obligations to 401Ks begins.
1987 = Beginnings of vulture capitalism/leveraged buyout, Black Monday
1990-1993 = recession
1994-2000 = Outsourcing/offshoring begins. Threat of same keeps the rest of the wretched refuse “in line”. Pay raises start to go away, to be replaced with “Bonuses/incentives/pay for performance” contracts. Deregulation/Casino-ization of the financial “industry” proceed. Massaging of official numbers begins in earnest.
2000-2005 = Tech bubble bursts. GWOT begins. Wall Street financial shennanigans goes viral. Outsourcing/offshoring picks up speed, but the “housing market” boom camoflages this fact in the “official” numbers Pay raises that don’t cover the (bogus) rate of inflation are the new Paradigm.
2007- on = Wheels fall off.
Put another way.
My grandparents got pensions and Social Security.
My parents got early-retirement-pension-buyouts and Social Security.
I’ll get neither pension nor pension buy-out, and the people with all the money are trying to figure out how to make my Social Security go away.
Inflation of the late 1970s actually worked out quite well for my parents (WWII babies, so pre-boom by 5 years or so). They owned a house, cars, RVs etc, purchased on debt with fixed low interest rates prior to the onset of high inflation. Their incomes kept up with inflation making their debts effectively shrink rapidly.
By middle aged in the 1980s, my parents had high income, low debt and fat pension plans. Unfortunately, mom died, but by the 1990s (his mid-50s), dad got a fat pension buy-out and took an early retirement in his easily paid-off house.
I, on the other hand, at 46 am making less than I did 15 years ago, adjusted for inflation. My 401(k) has a couple years of income, but mostly because I managed to avoid the crashes of 2002 and 2008 that hit most people my age very hard. My house will be paid off in less than 10 years, while most of the people my age are looking to refi into a fresh 30-year mortgage.
I will pay, in terms of years of income, nearly 7 times as much as my grandfathers, and 3 times as much as my father to Social Security due to higher rates and the cap rising 3x as fast as inflation. Despite paying in more, I’ll get back less with later retirement age. And that assumes no further changes.
Early Boomers are much better off than later Boomers. GenX, of which I’m the first of, are totally fooked.
None of this alters the fact that there are children today, that will become adults as the Boomers die off.
Excuses and lies, all of it.
You just didn’t bootstrap hard enough!
I know…….God, I’m such a failure……..
Yeah, I can’ tell you how much I just LOVE listening to early boomers tell me I’m not trying hard enough and my attitude sucks.
I really can’t blame Gen X & Y for hating the boomers. The arrogance and delusion of the early boomers is without peer.
They could literally take a dump and make money (anyone remember plastic poop? Pet rocks?)
How did someone put it? “They climbed the ladder of success and then pulled the ladder up after themselves.”
You and the Fixr are the most nattering nabobs of negativism on this blog. Does anything every go right in your worlds?
Just wondering…….
If/when the -fixr ever owns a house again, one of it’s features will be that it will be a nice little sanctuary for the local birds (preferably chickadees, finches, cadinals, etc.)
Of course, birds will attract cats. The old fashioned, Neanderthal way to deal with them is by giving them “lead poisoning”. The -fixr is wondering whether planting a bunch of catnip to divert the cats will get the cats high, and too lazy to attack birds.
Or will the catnip give them the munchies, and treat the area like their local QT/7-11?
While I have found moth balls an effective technique for keeping cats from using flower beds as their toilet, I’ve not found them effective at keeping them away from my yard.
My dogs work well for keeping them out of the back yard, but not the unfenced front. Dogs, of course, present an even greater annoyance than the cats, so I’d not recommend them for keeping cats away.
Heck, an even bigger annoyance to me, when I lived in Colorado was the busy tailed rats known as squirrels. I was never able to eat a strawberry from my strawberry plants as the squirrels ate them long before they were ripe. Perhaps I should have gotten a bunch of cats to keep the squirrels away.
There was an old lady that swallowed a fly…
My ex- decided once that it would be a good idea to adopt a retired racing greyhound.
This didn’t work out. But it did have the benefit of having all of the local cats steer well clear of the property.
According to my rural friends, 2-3 of them will take care of any coyote issues you may have as well.
As it so happens, I have a bunch of “out of date” fire bottle squibbs salted away in my toolbox. Rumor has it they are good for running off nuisance cats from your property
The Plan:
-Locate area where cat craps/pizzes.
-Wire squibbs in parallel, to a 12v battery, out of sight. Bury squibbs in perimeter around affected area, ala “Claymore Mines”
-When Mr Whiskers enters target area to relieve himself, apply 12v to positive post of squibbs.
What would compell a person to feed birds, but shoot cats?
I like birds. I like them hanging around the house. Except for grackles. And the occasional confused, misdirected woodpecker.
I don’t like cats (at least 99% of them). I especially don’t like cats that come over to your house, run off all of the birds, and $hit/pizz in your flower beds, “Speedy-Dri”, and garage.
Simple as that.
Not that I’m advocating busting caps in cats. I’m just reflecting back to a simpler time, when people too care of problems themselves, instead of calling some $75K/year city employee to do it for them.
“Not that I’m advocating busting caps in cats.”
Back in Los Osos, CA we had feral cats everywhere, hundreds of them. Animal control was useless, but well paid. Up here in the Columbia Basin the coyotes and especially the owls control the feral cat population.
If I had a problem with unwanted cats on my property, I would trap them and turn them into the local no-kill shelter.
If you have a “problem” with animals in your front yard, then you are a control freak. If there isn’t a fence around it, then you should expect animals to roam across it.
Said cats are not natural animals.
No, what are they then, plastic? There will be squirrels, raccoons, wild dogs, elk, deer, bulls, and cats roaming across your yard. Expect a human here and there.
There will also be insects, birds, reptiles, and worms.
If you feel offended by the presence of living things in your yard, then you should get a fence.
A fence wouldn’t stick in my “yard” so well. I am not bothered by nature at my railing, I am intentionally surrounded by it. Your beloved house cat is an enemy of this nature, it is not a natural part of it. House cats are the result of thousands of years of genetic tinkering. They survive only by the efforts of their submissive humans.
Blue:
My cats could survive without me, but it’s so much more convenient to take what I give them. Since humans eliminated the natural predators of all those pesky birds and such, they fill an important ecological niche.
People who shoot cats are enemies of mine.
Then I am not your enemy. Still, the designer house cats are not so survivable all on their own in my experience. I have run a few when I was a farmer, and they failed without human supplements amid a plenty of vermin.
I like cats. I don’t like them killing birds. Especially birds coming to feeders or boxes. Birds, other than perhaps starlings, are in no danger of overpopulation. Loss of populations near urban areas is the primary problem:
http://stateofthebirds.audubon.org/cbid/
The -fixr is wondering whether planting a bunch of catnip to divert the cats will get the cats high, and too lazy to attack birds.
Or will the catnip give them the munchies, and treat the area like their local QT/7-11?
The conundrums. They’re all around us!
Alpha/beta/gamma world cities list: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/world2008t.html
Interesting.
North American cities on this list:
A++ New York
A+ (none)
A Toronto, Chicago
A- Mexico City, Los Angeles
B_ Washington DC, Atlanta, San Francisco
B Dallas, Boston
B- Miami, Houston
G+ Montreal, Minneapolis, Seattle
G Philadelphia, Portland
G- Detroit, San Diego, Calgary, Columbus
High Sufficiency - Phoenix, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tampa, San Juan, KC, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Ottawa City
Alpha++ cities New York and London, what do they “produce” besides an alphabet of bogus paper financial instruments?
Just posted on WRS today, a delightful fiction piece about TEOTWAWKI scenario is USA:
http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2013/08/26/bracken-alas-brave-new-babylon/
And another thing……
Why do they insist on busting up all of the old kitchen cabinets with sledgehammers on all of these TV “flipper” show?????
Some of them, at least, may be dated, but are probably constructed better, with better materials (plywood, instead of “compressed fiberboard”) than the “new” stuff.
These cabinets would work great in a garage or workshop. But noooooo, they’ve got to take the 20lb sledges to them.
Just stupid…….
That’s not demo. Clearly it’s for show.
As housing anal says, it’s just for show.
Sledge hammers breaking stuff is much more exciting for the home viewers than… oh… watching paint dry.
Also, there is a significant amount of “I could do that” that contributes to the viewer motivation for watching these shows.
If the show is “buy, sledge hammer, pay pro’s to reinstall, Profit” the viewers think, I could do that,and they tune in again.
If the show is “Buy, lots of hard work and long hours doing things that you have no knowledge of or skill in, cut corners and screw others, while selling at razor thin markup..” Well, who is going to watch that?
I still think that a show called “Flip or Flop, Where are they now?” that went back and looked at the homes “flipped for huge profit” in the bubble would be a hit! Go back and look at all those people that bought, renovated, listed, then decided to take it off the market until conditions improved… see what actually happened. How many flippers flopped. How many people that bought from flippers later lost a gazillion dollars.
But, I guess getting viewers is only half the battle in the world of television. You also need to get advertisers willing to put ads on your program. I doubt Home Depot or Lowes would want to sponsor a show that says YOU LOSE money when you remodel a house.
I love those shows. They are so stupid!
Sledge hammers? SAWZALL you morons!
Bought a house without inspection? Do deserve it!
Full gut of kitchen and bathrooms? You bought the wrong house!
Love those shows.
I used to laugh……..
But now, the stupidity that is in most “reality” TV just makes me want to cry.
Some woman that was on this weekend spent $450K (plus $40K on “rehabilitation”) on a house that MIGHT fetch $80K out here in Flyover.
I just think of all the other more useful things that could be bought/invested in, and the waste that $400K symbolizes.
-$400K (carefully spent) will buy you the best non-corporate owned prototype/machine shop between Denver and the Mississippi.
-$192K (asking) will get you a 2001 Cessna Skylane with 900 Total Time. And, unlike houses, will hold it’s value a lot better.
A twenty year fishing trip sounds good to me.
And remember….. All the $$$ thrown at these “updates” is a irrecoverable loss.
Re:
John Kerry’s address on Syria.
Please explain to us the difference between a gassed civilian and a droned civilian?
See below..
Unfortunately, the answer is purely price/destruction.
With nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, we could wipe out the entire human race with very little investment.
$1 million for a missile that can kill half a dozen people ensures that it is only used if you REALLY, REALLY want those people dead.
$100 for a chemical weapon that can kill thousands, and suddenly elimination of the entire human race becomes a real possibility.
In the words of the writers of the movie adaptation of Gettysburg, “We’re prepared to lose some of us, but we’re not prepared to lose all of us.”
And one suspects the innocent dead weren’t prepared to lose, period.
Your facile excuses are those of a moral coward hiding under the guise of patriotism.
Not In My Name.
People die every day, that weren’t prepared to die.
Moral coward?
Nice ad hominem attack. You asked the difference between a chemical attack and a drone attack.
The difference is plain to see. Humanity saw the mass destruction that was possible with NBC warfare, and in hopes of preventing the total extermination of the human race, decided to illegalize the use of chemical and biological weapons. Humanity did not choose to illegalize the use of other forms of warfare.
As a humanist, my moral code is based on balancing gain against cost.
Seeing the world in shades of gray rather than black and white, does not make me a moral coward.
Killing is justified in a great number of cases. Chief amongst them is to prevent the greater loss of life that may result.
A drone strike on a suspected terrorist, even if non-terrorists may be injured or killed as a result, is justified, if an even greater loss of life is likely to occur if the drone strike is not made.
Use of chemical weapons to kill thousands of random people, just to keep current leadership in power, is not justified because the eventual result of such use of chemical weapons could be the loss of far too many lives.
No, I did not ask “the difference between a chemical attack and a drone attack”. I asked why we were supposed to be outraged by an alleged Syrian government Sarin attack but not by acknowledged US government drone attacks. The results to the dead are the same.
That you resort to numbers to make your case and refuse to acknowledge an (im)moral equivalency is why I called you out for cowardice. You can’t condemn the one while justifying the other.
Well, let me amend that. You CAN, but your subsequent argument falls flat.
Gassing civilians is against the Geneva Convention.
Using drones to whack them currently isn’t.
Just a continuation of Sherman’s policy…….any civilians who are engaged in directly supporting an army in the field against our guys is fair game. In Sherman’s time, it was the “March to the Sea”
In the “Greatest Generation” time, it was bombing “civilian” targets like rail yards, refineries, or whole cities in Japan
Vietnam was a demonstration of how not to do it………using bombers to send “messages” and sending guys out in multi-million dollar airplanes to find and bomb (in some cases, individual) trucks, when the same thing could have been accomplished (with a lot less blood and money lost on both sides) if we had mined Haiphong harbor from the start.
(Of course, mining the harbor would have pizzed off some of our so-called “allies”, who made it a point to sell stuff to the North Vietnamese)
Of course, the whackees could avoid all of this by putting their guys in uniforms, and making them stay in barracks/bases/forts/camps where we could be almost 100% sure that the appropriate people are whacked.
Please explain to us the difference between a gassed civilian and a droned civilian?
The better question should be why is the Obama administration and the mainstream US media ignoring the possibility that both the Assad regime and the Free Syrian Army could potentially be using chemical weapons? The FSA arguably gained access to stores of chemical weapons when they “liberated” Aleppo. The FSA has more to gain and the Assad regime more to lose by by using chemical weapons, or any WMD, in this conflict.
Cui bono? The Assad regime is winning on the ground in Syria, despite weapons and equipment flowing to the FSA from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Assad regime is pushing back the FSA in many areas, despite the fact that Special Forces from the US, UK, and France are in country, training and providing intelligence to the FSA. Why risk the condemnation and increased likelihood of direct intervention from the international community by using WMD’s?
Answer: The US, UK, and France, along with our allies in the region, have already determined that direct action is necessary to further our strategic interests and are using the media to spin public opinion in a direction favorable to direct action.
It’s a done deal. Tomahawk cruise missiles will be falling out of the sky soon enough. Then comes the “No-fly” zones and once the US and it’s allies have complete air superiority, it’s troops on the ground to secure the “WMD’s”. It’s Iraq and Libya all over again… only this time we get to destroy an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, not to mention poke Russia in the eye.
Cui bono?
How about those regional “interests” who have been using the US media to flog Assad for the last two years — ever since he announced he’d be trading oil on the Iranian bourse instead of in petrodollars?
Who is to say (as Assad has) that this wasn’t a false flag operation by said media’s regional security forces to force the Obama administration into committing to another hugely unpopular conflict in the Middle East. Tell us, Who would profit from THAT?
Saw this article about the importance of an oil pipeline in the area. And a rising Kurdistan.
Deep beneath “Damascus volcano” and “the battle of Aleppo”, the tectonic plates of the global energy chessboard keep on rumbling. Beyond the tragedy and grief of civil war, Syria is also a Pipelineistan power play.
Into this delicate equation, the dream of a Greater Kurdistan is now back in play. And the Kurds may have a reason to smile; Washington appears to be silently backing them - a very quiet strategic alliance.
Of course Washington’s motives are not exactly altruistic. Iraqi Kurdistan under Barzani is a very valuable tool for the US to keep a military footprint in Iraq. The Pentagon will never admit it on the record - but advanced plans already exist for a new US base in Iraqi Kurdistan, or for the transfer to Iraqi Kurdistan of NATO’s base in Incirlik.
This has got to be one of the most fascinating subplots of the Arab Spring; the Kurds fitting perfectly into Washington’s game in the whole arc from the Caucasus to the Gulf.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/08/201285133440424621.html
Editorial cartoonist, Ted Rall call this back in 2001 — and was nearly lynched for his efforts.
See:
Gas War: The Truth Behind the American Occupation of Afghanistan (NBM, 2002
“That is not the behavior of a government with nothing to hide.”
-Secretary of State John Kerry 8/26/13, addressing the alleged use and coverup of chemical weapons by Syria
I would like to ask Mr. Kerry and the Obama administration: Is your response to the Manning and Snowden incidents the “behavior of a government with nothing to hide?” I think not. You are hypocrites, and are nothing but a continuation of the tired policies of Reagan, Bush, and Bush II. You are a fraud, Obama. You ran and were elected to office on the premise of change, but you moved the goal post after the kick was in the air. Shame on you, and all of your cronies.
Of course we have something to hide.
We would like to hide from terrorists, how we identify and track them. To do that, we must hide from EVERYONE how we identify and track terrorists.
35 years was far too short for the acts of treason perpetrated by Manning.
Terrorists have always known that their communications might be bugged/monitored. Regular citizens didn’t know that it was also happening to them, in addition to the members of Congress and White House.
Especially since the label of “terrorist” seems to be fluid, and ever-expanding.
Oppose the policies of Bathhouse Barry = you are a terrorist
http://www.infowars.com/dod-training-manual-suggests-extremist-founding-fathers-would-not-be-welcome-in-todays-military/
“Especially since the label of “terrorist” seems to be fluid, and ever-expanding.”
+1 That would include anyone critical of Israeli policies.
“Oppose the policies of Bathhouse Barry = you are a terrorist”
Let’s review the article you link to…..
“The document defines extremists as ‘a person who advocates the use of force or violence; advocates supremacist causes based on race, ethnicity, religion, gender, or national origin; or otherwise engages to illegally deprive individuals or groups of their civil rights.’”
Oh, how horrible.
“The manual goes on to bar military personnel from ‘active participation’ in such extremist organization activities as ‘publicly demonstrating,’ ‘rallying,’ ‘fundraising’ and ‘organizing,’ basically denying active-duty military from exercising the rights they so ardently fight to defend.”
Anyone who has signed a military enlistment contract and taken the oath, KNOWS that you give up lots and lots of rights when you enlist. The right to support hate groups is one of the lesser rights that you willingly surrender when you sign the enlistment documents.
As for not allowing Founding Fathers into the military, do you think the British Army would have allowed in people that favored allowing the colonies to leave the British Empire?
Strongly disagreeing with the government does not make you a terrorist. It simply makes you someone that the government doesn’t want in the military.
That definition of an extremist fits the US military to a tee.
Hiding from terrorists is gunning down innocent people? Hah!
“for the acts of treason perpetrated by Manning…”
This is the mentality of abuse IMO. There is no question that serious wrongs by our government have been exposed. It isn’t even discussed much. What gets focus is the one who ratted these things out and what needs to be done to that person. In my own little idealist mind, an honest and patriotic leader would acknowledge that the rat broke the rules, then he would rout out the corruption in his own house while offering his personal protection/pardon of the rat. To not do so is to celebrate and participate in the corruption.
“Tampa Bay homes last month posted some of the biggest price jumps in the state”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/tampa-bay-home-price-jumps-among-highest-in-the-state/2138374
What in the whirled just happened to stocks?
You mean the nearly 100 point swan dive in mere moments? C’mon, that’s “normal.”
Relax. Just a hiccup. Still close to 15,000.
“whirled”
Exactly.
The end of today’s stock market action reminds me of this game we played as kids, called KerPlunk.
Fun times!
Kerry’s press conference.
Yeah, that makes no sense, but all the reporters are saying it.
Look at the timing. Kerry’s statement to the press began about 12:12 PST. The market plunged at about 12:13 PST.
One minute into his speech, a Kerry caused the second giant anomaly in the stock market to happen within two days of each other. Right.
Happened with Bernake a few times…
Coincidence? Cover? YOU be the judge.
Totally makes sense. If we get embroiled in yet another Middle East war, it could be a game changer.
Business
Stock market sags after John Kerry’s remarks on Syria
By Matthew Craft
The Associated Press
Posted: 08/27/2013 12:01:00 AM MDT
NEW YORK — The stock market sagged Monday after the Obama administration ratcheted up pressure against Syria.
Secretary of State John Kerry said there was “undeniable” evidence of a large-scale chemical weapons attack in Syria last week, and suggested the administration was edging closer to a military response.
The S&P 500 index slipped 6.72 points, or 0.4 percent, to close at 1,656.78. It was up two points just before Kerry began reading his statement Monday afternoon.
…
“Crime Sans Punishment” = GOOD
“Stress Test” = BORRRING!!!
And the name of Tim Geithner’s memoir is…
August 26, 2013, 12:33 PM
Earlier this year, Twitter had a field day on how to title the memoir from former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. “Crime and No Punishment” was among the answers.
But it looks like we now have a title.
This link, taken from a catalog of upcoming books, suggests it will be “Stress Test.”
…
Squad, tell me about Fort Collins.
I think he’s a ways away from there. I’m a little closer, but In Colorado knows the most about it.
Nobody save FOMC members themselves truly believe they will soon taper QE3.
Does monetary policy work when everyone already knows what is going to happen next?
Aug. 26, 2013, 12:38 p.m. EDT
Gold to the Fed: You are bluffing
By Michael A. Gayed
Gold has been in a nice uptrend since bottoming late June, bouncing from deeply oversold levels following Bernanke’s dovish reassurances on monetary policy. Clearly there are many reasons why people buy gold. Some prefer holding the metal physically as a store of wealth. Some like the diversification benefits it provides. Still others view it simply as a momentum trade when strength persists. Whatever the reasons may ultimately be, as with every investment, price is driven purely and always by perception.
So what is the perception about gold now as we enter the dreaded “taper”?
As my readers know, I have been aggressively arguing that spiking yields are a bad sign for markets and the economy, making factual comparisons to 1987. I expand on this extensively in a piece that Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report will be publishing shortly, and address the key difference between the Federal Reserve of now vs. the one of 1987.
I find it hard to believe that Bernanke is not aware of the dangers yield spikes have on financial markets historically, which likely means the Fed either will not taper, or taper marginally to calm interest-rate movement. That means the Fed, because of its paranoia over an end to the wealth effect, may try to push for a negative real-rate environment again, whereby inflation is higher than nominal interest rates.
This may be what gold is sensing. Gold tends to historically show strong momentum when in negative real-rate environments. Take a look below at the price ratio of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF relative to the S&P 500. As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/GLD is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/SPY. For a larger chart, please click here.
Gold has been massively underperforming all year in a rather shocking way, as U.S. averages ran away on the upside and left the precious metal behind in 2013.
The fact that gold is starting to outperform strongly into the September Fed meeting may mean bets are rising that the Fed will not rock the boat, but instead re-adjust crowd mentality away from cutting back on bond buying. Perception-wise, then, this may mean gold’s strength is anticipating a reversal in yields, more money printing, and another bout of stimulus.
Should be a fun poker game ahead…
Yuppers. My gold ETF portfolio is up 38.79% since I started buying in early July.
Sadly I struck out on coin shops in OC and San Diego. Gotta make a purchase every 4 months now on a planned day off just to be able to drive to L.A to my coin shop and have lunch with my ex colleagues at one of our fave Mexican food hole-in-the-wall places in the South Bay…
Biuying $8500 worth of gold in early October.
Sadly I struck out on coin shops in OC and San Diego.
Struck out why, Bill?
Three are only four in SD that are on the US Mint list of dealers. Only one open Saturdays and that one does not offer the terms I am used to in L.A.
The Summers Fed Chair rumor is getting an awful lot of press if not true.
Aug. 26, 2013, 7:02 p.m. EDT
Larry Summers to be next Fed chair, CNBC says
By Michael Kitchen
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — President Obama will likely name his former economic adviser Larry Summers as the next Federal Reserve chairman, though Summers is “still being vetted” for the job, CNBC reported Monday, citing an unnamed source from “Team Obama.” Summers, who along with current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen is seen as a frontrunner to replace Ben Benrnanke, has faced some opposition from Democratic members of Congress over his role in easing Wall Street regulation when he served as Treasury secretary late in the Clinton administration.