Bits Bucket for August 29, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Happy days are here again!
July was the best month for Mass. home sales since 2006, the Warren Group says.
The number of Massachusetts single-family homes sold in July was up more than 18 percent on a year-to-year comparison basis as the Bay State had its best month for sales volume since June 2006, the Warren Group said Thursday.
Condominium sales in the state were also up sharply. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family home rose 10 percent in July, increasing to $349,000, said the Warren Group, a Boston company that tracks local real estate activity.
The skies above are clear again Let us sing a song of cheer again …
The Massachusetts Association of Realtors also issued its monthly report on the local housing market Thursday. The association uses a different method than the Warren Group does to calculate sales activity.
According to the association, there were 5,750 detached single-family homes sold this July, a 20.3 percent increase from a year ago. The July 2013 total was the most homes sold in one month since July 2004.
http://www.boston.com/business/news/2013/08/29/july-was-the-best-month-for-mass-home-sales-since-the-warren-group-says/dpDlGZL4LoyAGlTRgjjtBI/story.html
Guess there’s no shortage of inventory there.
Well this is where the condo market in Canada’s big 3 cities is at, that’s Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto. The guy in the ad is Canada’ condo king. Do any of you remember stuff like this back in 07-09 when your bubble was blown. http://email.bradjlambmarketing.com/August2013Newsletter/FromTheDeskOfBJL_Aug2013.pdf
Gotta love that newsletter.
Like I said, people are being told and brainwashed into believing that housing is supposed to be utterly unaffordable and that million dollar starter homes in communities with 50K median HH incomes is “normal”.
A nation of slaves.
When those interest rates reset higher, those $350k condos will stop cash flowing. There willbe a rush to the exits.
OK, the UN said no, England said maybe and congress has not even been asked.
“The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.”
–Presidential Candidate Obama in an interview with Charlie Savage, December 20, 2007
————————————-
Obama undecided on Syria strike as US gives up on UN
ABS CBN | 08/29/2013 | Stephen Collinson
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama said Wednesday he had not yet decided whether to strike Syria, but expectations of US military action hardened when Washington said a bid for a last-minute UN mandate was futile.
Political uproar in London meanwhile cast doubt on whether Britain will join American military action to punish President Bashar al-Assad’s regime for a chemical weapons attack should the response take place before next week.
Obama, who has warned that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would cross a US “red line,” said Washington had definitively concluded that the Assad regime was to blame for last week’s attack.
But he warned that US action would be designed to send a “shot across the bow” to convince Syria it had “better not do it again.”
Yep, I was reading that David Cameron got backed down big time on Syria. Hoping Congress will do the same, but they’re off enjoying their “vacation”.
Let them be in vacation….Obama only wants 2 day war, the republicans might force 2 year war on him.
Obama vacilates a lot…not a bad thing when it comes to war.
Games. If one REALLY wanted to go after Assad then they would go after Assad, not something that represents the power of Assad.
Not saying that one should or should not go after Assad, just saying that things are not always as they seem to be - in fact it’s probably rare that things are actually as they seem to be.
Games. Friends one day, enemies the next. Good guy one day, bad guy the next.
I used to know an older couple who were both retired from careers in the CIA and they used to amuse themselves by reading the newspapers and then trying to discover from their readings just what was actually going on - who was saying what and just why what was being said was being said.
Mark Twain said something about non-readers of newspapers being uninformed and readers of newspapers being misinformed.
newspapers being misinformed.
Same can be said about college education. The more education you have, more misinformed you are.
That’s why illiterate hicks and rednecks got them rovers onto Mars.
All the O-man needs to say is that Assad has WMDs (he has the serial #s and the bill of sale to prove it). Worked last administration… Gotta keep the MIC in hot-war production somehow. This is much less volatile than fomenting hatred between citizen factions, and still profitable.
Who is responsible for barbecuing these people? Mossad? CIA? MI5?
Which one?
Lockheed.
“Gotta keep the MIC in hot-war production somehow.”
It sure boosted the pain at the pump, just in time for Labor Day weekend.
“This is much less volatile than fomenting hatred between citizen factions,”
I think TPTB found out there just wasn’t enough profit in this. Sure, it fattens the purses of the “activists” and groups like $PLC (Southern Poverty Law Center), but it’s not helping Goldman do God’s work. Not to mention those pesky bankrupt cities.
“They attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms”
“We have to fight them over there so we won’t have to fight them over here”
“Let’s roll”
“Mission accomplished”
et cetera
et cetera
“These colors don’t run”
et cetera
“Hope and Change”
“Change You Can Believe In”
“Yes We Can”
“I will also hold myself as president to a new standard of openness …. Let me say it as simply as I can: Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”
I could go on like this all day. “Meet the new boss- Same as the old boss”
My favorite sticker circa 2001-2004 was “Power Of Pride”
They will greet us as liberators.
It will be a cake walk.
The war will pay for itself.
I’ve been listening to the open phones segments of C-SPAN’s Washington Journal the past few days. The sentiment of the callers is decidedly against U.S. military action in Syria.
The sheeple who were so easily swayed in 2002-2003 aren’t buying the slogans this time.
Give Obama time to come up with a “Pearl Harbor event” (term from 1996 Project For A New American Century policy paper) during his second term.
“et cetera”
“We got the terrorists on the run”
The sheeple who were so easily swayed in 2002-2003 aren’t buying the slogans this time.
Could it be because Saddam and Bin Laden are of darker skin color than Assad?
Could it be because Saddam and Bin Laden are of darker skin color than Assad?
I think there are plenty of even better reasons.
Welfare Warfare state. This is a continuation of the “Progressivist” philosophy of Democrat Woodrow Wilson and Republican Theodore Roosevelt. “Progressives” think the US knows it all and must play God. They think the solution is American government power. The anti-war movement in the late 60s/70s was wrongly attributed to liberals. The Libertarian Party was born out of the rising crescendo of war. Peace is not the ultimate strategy for the so-called liberals. It’s control. They pretend to seek peace but do not. And right wing conservatives hated Godless communism and loved war. They played well in the “progressives’ hands. Conservatives have always been dupes of the “progressives,” blamed for the ills of the bad policies of the “progressives.”
Um…yeah.
Bill:
I can’t believe you’re starting to talk about Woodrow Wilson. Today is 2013. We are in a completely different era, with different issues and interests. I’m also aghast that you are trying to argue that “progressives” are the one true party thas it secretly controlling the “liberals” and “conservatives”, but yet you sort of blame the liberals for everything and forgive the conservatives for being duped.
“Obama undecided on Syria ”
sounds like a response from a bully to his friends when his mark stood up to him and made him back down.
“i’m not scared…i just changed my mind.”
idiot.
I don’t think Obama wanted to do this thing in the first place. There were other forces at work on him to pull the trigger. I’m no fan of the guy by any means, but my take is that he’s just been posturing to keep the warmongers at bay and off his back as much as possible.
More telling was the MPs who told David Cameron to stuff it. That’s the big story here, and possibly is the pinprick that’s letting the air out of the balloon. The message has been sent: England will NOT join the coalition of the willing.
Hopefully we dodged WWIII, because that’s what it would be. Even as far back as the 1950s, Syria was thought of as something of a flashpoint for nuke war. Not that Assad has a nuke, but other countries involved, like Russia, see aggression against Syria as aggression against them.
Poor, poor obama,
The bad men of the world and evil doers are conspiring to keep him from doing god’s work.
Such a leader. Such courage….
Why don’t you step up and run in 2016? Who knows…if you can make it through the challenging and highly-populated field in the Republican debates, perhaps you could have the chance to show the world the right way to run a country.
He should run. He would get votes from all the supporters of Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, the “intellectual base” of today’s Republican Party
UK is out, but France is in this time!
“intellectual base”
Intellectual? Hmmm…
Base? Indeed!
“I don’t think Obama wanted to do this thing in the first place.”
oh please.
Iraq - civil war
Egypt - civil war
Libya - civil war
Syria - civil war
Yemen - close to a civil war
Jordan - to poor
Saudi - too corrupt
Lebanon - perpetual civil war
See the picture…only country is sitting pretty and US is not that country.
Iran is the only big bad bear left in that region. They are trying to go after Iran for a long time but as Ben sugested, Iran is actually a big country and it will actually hit back.
only one country is sitting pretty
israel?
Dubai.
Too funny. If Obama indicates that he might ask the UN and Congress about the possibility of an international altercation, then all the supposed “independents” (i.e., Republicans who are too embarrassed to say so) go apeshit. According to our resident tutti-fruitie commentator, “Obama lied; children died.”
Then, if Obama indicates that he doesn’t know yet what the support will be, he is an idiot who backed down.
Which one is it, “independents” (I mean Republicans)? You seem to be grasping at straws, trying ANYTHING to say something negative about the current administration.
“Progressive” Warmongers Attack Rand Paul:
“the worst is his declaration that we have no national security interest in Syria. To be consistent, he could say we have no interest in the Middle East … he doesn’t consider the players, including Hezbollah, a threat to our ally Israel. He’s tried to bolster his pro-Israel credentials, but his policy assertion would throw Israel to the wolves”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/08/28/why-rand-paul-should-never-ever-be-commander-in-chief/
“a threat to our ally Israel”
You mean the ally that attacked the USS Liberty? THAT ally?
http://news.antiwar.com/2013/06/07/on-46th-anniversary-survivors-of-israeli-attack-on-uss-liberty-demand-congressional-inquiry/
Pardon me, but I don’t think Israel is much of an ally. It’s more about what we can do for them, not so much what they can do for us. Although having said that, if I had the choice between living in Israel or living in Iran, I’d rather live in Israel.
You better watch that mouth, Abraham Foxman is gonna put your name on the “list”
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/12/adl-spies/
“a threat to our ally Israel”
That’s so comical…Did Israel fight with us in any war?
I understand the ME thing..how about Korea? Vietnam? Grenada? Panama? Kosovo?
Israel is a difficult situation, no good answers (IMHO). If we pulled back all aid, the countries that hate them and surround them (IE: all their neighbors) would start to win the undeclared war. Then, I have no doubt, Israel would resort to more extreme tactics, leading, inexorably, to the nuclear option. Israel will NOT cede that land without using every option at their disposal, and the tide of war would shift to their enemies if we pulled out our support. So, by proxy, we support Israel to keep them from using their nuclear weapons on those they hate. Frankly, the folks who attack us the most should be thanking us, if we didn’t intervene, their entire country would be a nuclear wasteland.
Utter utter BS and rubbish!
Let’s not forget that there’s only one country with a history of using nuclear weapons on civilians. Rest of the nuclear powers (icluding Isreal, NoKo, Pakistan) have been very respectful and fully understand tha dangers of a nuclear war.
Isreal, NoKo, Pakistan) have been very respectful and fully understand tha dangers of a nuclear war.
Pakistan? PAKISTAN?????
Did Pakistan bomb Hiroshima? Did Pakistan waged a war in Vietnam?
Let’s be honest for a change….the US has no moral ground when it comes to war related matters?
I’m not saying the US has the moral high ground here. What I am saying is that, Israel, without our support/weapons/etc would not be able to fend off all those who so desperately hate them. And, if they couldn’t fend off their enemies, they would, IMHO, use nuclear weapons to protect their sovereignty.
Any deeply religious country with WMDs makes me exceedingly nervous; all it takes is some kook to get in office and think that they can speak with God to have an absolute disaster on our hands.
Israel should, in my mind (speaking as someone of Jewish descent) cede the country and establish somewhere else. Like Montana. Or Wyoming. They are fighting a battle that’s been raging for 1000 years, it’s time for one side to either win (IE, nuke the other) or for one nation to just give up the fight.
Why don’t we just buy all the countries, and take their nuclear weapons away?
Even better, we can give the Isrealis Montana. Just move them all to Montana and be done with it. I’d rather have Isrealis in Montana than Mormons in Utah anyway.
Overtaxed:
Did I already tell you about my Montana theory, or is it a coincidence that we both wrote the same thing?
She is a neocon.
Not that there’s any difference between progressive and neocon, but she is aligned with the R party.
‘In a rare moment of self-awareness in the 1990s, the Canadian politician and thinker Michael Ignatieff wondered out loud if his and other Westerners’ demand for the bombing of Bosnian Serbs was ‘driven by narcissism’. ‘We intervened not to save others, but to save ourselves, or rather an image of ourselves as defenders of universal decencies’, he said. And so it is today, with people clamouring for a Western assault on Syria not to save Syrians, or to end Assad’s regime, but simply to make the West’s self-styled upholders of human decency feel better about themselves when they look in the mirror. In this terrifyingly narcissistic vision of the world, Syria is not a wartorn nation, but simply a stage for Western moralistic preening, and its people are not human beings with political needs and desires, but merely props in a Western liberal pantomime pitting goodies against baddies. When Philip Collins says such Western urges for attacks on evil overseas cannot be ‘written off as adolescent’, he is protesting way too much – it is the height of adolescent stupidity to take action without thinking of the consequences.’
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/syria9/13960#.Uh36ERtJNPYf
‘We intervened not to save others, but to save ourselves, or rather an image of ourselves as defenders of universal decencies’, he said
Perfectly describes today’s nonprofit. Same with billionaire & celebrity activisim and charities….
BTW, didn’t this guy support Iraq Invasion a decade ago?
Ah, it’s a “liberal” pantomime. I see. The conservatives have nothing to do with this (except for the ones who were innocently duped by the wiley “progressives”).
Are either of Jennifer “neoconservative columnist” Rubin’s children a member, or former member, of the U.S. armed forces, or is she another saber rattler who sends their kids off to college while Joe Sixpack’s kids bleed and/or come home with PTSD?
I am tired of my taxpayer dollars going towards this sort of crap. Let’s assume the guy did gas his people. I am sorry for them, but they need to deal with it themselves. Overthrow the government- whatever. I fail to understand how I am financially and morally responsible to solve some religious whackos’ problems.
If obama were intentionally trying to destroy the healthcare system and discourage any business from hiring - what would he do differently?
—————————-
It’s Fact, Not Anecdote, That ObamaCare Is Turning Us Into A Part-Time Nation
Forbes | August 27, 2013 | Grace-Marie Turner, Contributor
The Obama administration continues to discount the huge impact its health overhaul law is having in turning America into a part-time nation, calling reports anecdotal and not based on complete data.
To paraphrase Groucho Marx: Who are you going to believe? Me, or your own eyes?
An avalanche of “anecdotes” continues to pile up as workers across the country are having their hours cut and their health benefits slashed across a broad range of industries.
Loren Goodridge, the owner of 21 Subway franchises, says he has no choice but to cut the hours of his employees to 29 a week to avoid the law’s penalties.
The negative effects of the law reach the education industry as well. St. Petersburg College, a public university in Florida, is reducing the hours of 250 faculty members because the college says it cannot afford to provide them with health insurance.
Joseph Hansen, the president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union that originally supported the law, says the health law will have a “tremendous impact as workers have their hours reduced and their incomes reduced.”
Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the ratio of part-time to full-time jobs has completely flipped this year from historical trends. Last year, six full-time jobs were created for every one part time job. This year, only one full-time job is being created for every four new part-time jobs….
Obamacare = corporate welfare for insurance companies
Nationalized single-payer healthcare = better results at half the cost
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_care_in_the_United_States
Nationalized single-payer healthcare = better results at half the cost
Keep on dreaming…
It will be worse because I have no doubt that the new system will be gamed by the usual suspects. Unless you get the greedy doctors, greedy lawyers and greedy administrators out of the healthcare, you will most likely get
Nationalized single-payer healthcare in US = worse results at double the cost
take a look at the annual rate of increase in Medicare spending, and then look at the annual rate of private insurance costs, and get back to me on that thought.
There is nothing perfect out there. Health care is expensive. But the entire industry, including the hospitals, the drugmakers, the lawyers, the health insurers and unfortunately my colleagues at the AMA have done a wonderful job scaring the heck out the entire country that a nationalized health system would a) kill grandma and b) we’d all die because then we’d have to wait 6 months to have our inflamed appendix taken out.
You only need to take a brief stop in the “medical system” before you quickly figure out why everything is so incredibly expensive. I herniated my back a few years ago. Went to my GP, he diagnosed me and sent me to a specialist. The specialist sent me for an X ray. Then, he scheduled me for an MRI and finally, after all that, gave me 30 muscle relaxers, 30 painkillers and told me to stay off my feet for a few days. Went in for the MRI, that showed a herniated disc (shocker).
This was several years ago, and, like many people with back problems, I’ve aggregated it several times since. However, because of the mind-boggling CYA culture, I’ve had 4 MRIs on the same spot (always the same result) and probably 1/2 a dozen X rays (which, BTW, come to find out, can’t really diagnose a herniated disc). The MRIs come in at a few K each, the Dr visit another few hundred dollars every time. All for exactly the same treatment; Solumedrol (injected) some painkiller (injected), 30 muscle relaxers and 30 hydrocodone.
This one issue has likely cost my insurance company over 10K. All I really need a Dr I can call up and say “I hurt my back again, can you fit me in to give me the shot and some scripts”. Should be a 5 minute call, 10 minute Dr visit and back on my way.
Now, granted, a lot of this is because people abuse the drugs that help with back pain, and Dr’s are now nuts about prescribing them. However, all I really need for my back is a way to get access to drugs that cost almost nothing and a few syringes to inject them (all IM, not into the spine or anything like that). This should cost my insurance company 100 dollars, not the 1000’s that it does every time.
It’s insane; a large part of the reason Dr’s offices are so crowded is drug prohibition. If I could just walk in and get what I needed from a CVS, I’d never need to see the Dr again for this problem. And, the other issue compounding this is the liability laws surrounding medicine. Why keep doing an MRI when we all know what it’s going to show? CYA, that’s why, plain and simple.
It is truly insane.
I’ve aggregated it several times since.
How did you manage to do that?
“Why keep doing an MRI when we all know what it’s going to show?”
Because the doctor’s own an interest in the places that do the MRIs. Sending patients to those places puts money in their pockets.
A doc I know in Canada (practiced in England and Canada) thought that a doctor having any finanicial interest in the place that does the tests was the most unethical thing he had ever heard.
“Because the doctor’s own an interest in the places that do the MRIs. Sending patients to those places puts money in their pockets.”
Exactly. And they also have financial interests in pushing massive amounts of prescription drugs onto unsuspecting patients who need none of them. It’s disgusting. The whole industry is every bit as bad as the NAR.
It’s illegal for a physician to refer to a facility in which s/he has a financial interest. Gp/FP’s can’t even take their own x-rays anymore.
“It’s illegal for a physician to refer to a facility in which s/he has a financial interest. Gp/FP’s can’t even take their own x-rays anymore.”
The Wenatchee Valley Medical Group sends their lab and imaging samples to a doctor owned facility, which my medical insurance dropped from their group membership. I have to pay full cost for these services. If we have anything serious to deal with we travel to Seattle where our insurance plan goes further in covering expenses and negotiating discounts. This is a major issue if you have chronic medical problems and in flyover country. Thankfully we are all healthy; fingers crossed.
It will be worse because I have no doubt that the new system will be gamed by the usual suspects.
Then why have they fought it tooth and nail? If it would be such a gravy train for them, they should just all get on board, right?
golden boy is confused. He is missing the point that Obamacare is not the same thing as what they have in Canada, Scandinavia, etc.
Fear of unknown…but doesn’t mean they will NOT game whichever system replaces the current system.
I am not confused. You are too optimistic that US society in general is capable of running an efficient health care system. If it ever happens (I have no strong opinion either way), I will guarantee that it will be expesive and worse for most people.
I will guarantee that it will be expesive and worse for most people.
With the yearly double digit cost increases that are the norm for our byzantine, for profit system we are running out of tricks to keep the system working. It is only a matter of time until no one has private insurance.
So, as we Americans are wont to do, we will wait until the system enters a full blown crisis and collapses before we move onto a single payer system, like all other civilized countries have done already.
The movement to part time no benefit workers started long before Obama was elected president.
like all other civilized countries have done already.
This is the most moronic argument. Other countries have relatively healthy people, their doctors and nurses got to school for cheap, they have fewer lawyers and administrators, they have fewer politicians running elections on “healthcare”.
When the ingredients are expensive, you can not expect the outcome to be cheap. How’s the single payer make these ingredients cheaper?
The US health care system = best that money can buy.
Which is great, as long as you have any money.
This is the most moronic argument.
What’s moronic is defending our system, which is the most expensive and least efficient system in the work. The “ingredients” are expensive because we have a parasite class that depends on it being that way. A single payer system is the only way to reform the system. Our private, for profit system has utterly failed in that regard
Our private, for profit system
Where is that???
“The movement to part time no benefit workers started long before Obama was elected president.”
Yes, most businesses already provided some form of coverage, so it’s been in their interest for a while now to encourage part-timing. For the small percentage that didn’t provide coverage, I suppose they’ll be affected. I work for a company with only 40 employees, so no coverage is forthcoming for us, at least not from the company.
Uh … in the USA. Where we have the highest costs in the world.
It is said that doing the same thing expecting a different outcome from before is a sign of insanity. Given the poor track record of our byzantine, privately run, for profit health care system, that we cling to it with such determination would indicate that Americans in general are insane. The rest of the civilized world stares at our system with abject horror and disbelief.
And we will eventually have socialized health care, once the cost of a private plan reaches the tipping point where employers refuse to provide insurance to their employees due to the exorbitant cost. And that day of reckoning isn’t all that far off.
So the plan is:
More and more government
Making health care more and more expensive
Until it collapses
So that 100% government run health care can be imposed
Great plan.
I don’t think you have any idea what you are asking for.
And we will eventually have socialized health care, once the cost of a private plan reaches the tipping point where employers refuse to provide insurance to their employees due to the exorbitant cost. And that day of reckoning isn’t all that far off.
Unless you get the greedy doctors, greedy lawyers and greedy administrators out of the healthcare
From the old “Ben Casey” TV series
♂ - man
♀ - woman
* - birth
+ - death
∞ - infinity
$ - kaching!
I guess none of those people are smart enough to read since the employer provided health insurance mandate has been extended to Jan 1, 2015.
The lack of full time jobs has nothing to do with Obamacare. It’s because of the offshoring juggernaut. How do you compete with workers that earn 1/4 your pay or less?
In Haiti - you can hire someone for $1-2 per day.
It has been that way for 40 years.
And is just 90 miles from the USA.
Yet corporations are not flocking there.
Why is that?
According to your logic - the place should be booming.
Yet corporations are not flocking there.
Why is that?
No sane corporation or corp employee would set foot there.
Actually, we have offshored plenty of textile work there.
Are you actually saying that lower wages isn’t what drives offshoring? Do you really believe that, BananaBoy?
Why is that?
Tax is too low?
“In Haiti - you can hire someone for $1-2 per day.”
Unfortunately Haiti makes lousy weather satellites.
Exactly. The “independents” (i.e., Republicans who are embarrassed to say so) have been blaming Obamacare for all US ills since before the bill was even proposed.
Everybody loves Bubba:
“Bill Clinton agreed to lend his weight to President Barack Obama’s effort at educating people about the U.S. health-care overhaul, a helping hand needed to combat confusion as key parts of the law begin Oct. 1 … A White House aide, Dan Pfeiffer, welcomed Clinton’s help and quipped on Twitter that the former president is “the Secretary of Explaining Stuff.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-28/bill-clinton-enlisted-by-obama-to-promote-u-s-health-law.html
“the Secretary of Explaining Stuff.”
“But I want to say one thing to the American people. I want you to listen to me. I’m going to say this again: I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.”
“”It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is”
“Last year, six full-time jobs were created for every one part time job. This year, only one full-time job is being created for every four new part-time jobs….”
It certainly is a relief to know that the housing market can recover to pre-financial collapse rates of double-digit appreciation without the support of a strong labor market.
It certainly is a relief to know that the housing market can recover to pre-financial collapse rates of double-digit appreciation without the support of a strong labor market.
Who needs a job when you have equity and can flip houses?
It’s Fact, Not Anecdote, That ObamaCare Is Turning Us Into A Part-Time Nation
How quickly we forget. Anyone remember the woman that told Bush that she had three jobs? And his reaction?
Lucky Duckies have been part-timing it for decades. This is, unfortunately, nothing new.
Life was better for her under Bush when she had three part-time jobs. With Obama in the White House she only has two part-time jobs now
But the Obama “swag” makes up for it. I know it’s true, I see them loading their Escalades with shopping carts full of lobster and filet mignon, while yakking on their Obamaphone iPhone 6’s (only available for Obamaphone users)
You better believe it! I just looked up the EITC table for 2012, single or head of household with three children gets the max EITC of $5,891 at incomes between $13,050 and $17,100 (upper limit for married with 3 kids is $22,300).
That is some fine, fine living right there. High on the hog, land of milk and honey. And I heard those Obamaphones are specially programmed so every time you “like” one of Obama’s facebook posts or re-tweet on of his Twitter tweets, you get $5 automatically added to your EBT balance.
“We have the best government that money can buy.”
Mark Twain
“Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.”
Mark Twain
“God created war so that Americans would learn geography.”
Mark Twain
“A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.”
Mark Twain
Ambrose Bierce:
“Acquaintance: A person whom we know well enough to borrow from, but not well enough to lend to”
“Conservative: A statesman enamored of existing evils, as opposed to a Liberal, who wants to replace them with others”
“Diplomacy: The patriotic art of lying for one’s country”
“Marriage: The state or condition of a community consisting of a master, a mistress and two slaves, making in all, two”
“Pray: To ask that the laws of the universe be annulled in behalf of a single petitioner confessedly unworthy”
“Selfish: Devoid of consideration for the selfishness of others”
“69% of home sales are cash in S. Florida”
“The banks have an urgent need to get these bad loans off their books as soon as possible. They’re willing to sell for 30 percent less to a cash buyer rather than waiting for a buyer with a mortgage.”
Average Joe doesn’t have a chance of buying a home.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/fl-cash-house-sales-20130829,0,4195517.story
So the 25 million excess empty houses are moving from lender balance sheet to private equity balance sheet.
There are still 25 million excess empty houses out there.
And where’s the cash coming from?
I can’t help thinking that it was borrowed from somewhere. Even the big investment pools that are buying to rent are using warehouse lines of credit.
“And where’s the cash coming from?”
Wondering that myself. Although if you troll craigslist in the real estate section, you’ll see ads here and there soliciting people to join “investor” groups. In other words “give us your cash”.
“give us your cash”
OPM sometimes = stupid money.
One doesn’t need to present a business plan that works, he only needs to present one that persuades.
Trillions of dollars desperate for a return? Some of the money that make up these trillions is stupid money, maybe this is where the money is coming from.
I suppose it doesn’t matter from where it comes or just why it comes, it only matters that it comes.
Whenever you invest in a losing proposition, it is all stupid money. As far as massive, speculative bets on buying swaths of SFR and turning them into public housing tracts, this must all be stupid money. It certainly can’t be ’smart’ money. You know, like the type that built Enron or Bernie Madoff’s empire and did so well…
Fed Reserve z.1 does show a significant jump in business sector borrowing. I suspect a significant amount of that is REITs “snapping up” houses.
25 million of them. Excess, empty and depreciating rapidly.
But doesn’t that go against everything we’ve been reading? House prices are up (not down) because all-cash buyers are paying more (not less) for houses.
This guy is Canada’s condo king. Do any of you remember lies like this just before your bubble blew? http://email.bradjlambmarketing.com/August2013Newsletter/FromTheDeskOfBJL_Aug2013.pdf
Sorry for the double post.
A condo in Toronto will make you rich! Not a moment to lose.
Anybody notice the intentional suppression of mortgage app discussion in the media yesterday?
Here’s a factoid.
Purchase apps fell to a level not seen since FEB 2011. And this happened in a month that is supposed to see peak app activity.
And remember….. Feb is the month with the lowest activity. Combined with the fact it occurred just subsequent to the expiration of the home debtor tax credit indicates just how little end user housing activity there is right now.
And you missed some truthful housing discussion on bloomy.
Hint: Don’t buy a house right now.
Despite the home debtor tax credit, and despite mortgage interest rates not seen since the 50s, new home sales have slid sideways at levels lower than anything recorded (sixty years). This has been going on for five years.
What will prop up the dead horse now?
What will prop up the dead horse now?
Lots of lies brother….. lots of lies. What else?
Beware
“And you missed some truthful housing discussion on bloomy.”
I was listening to it yesterday around 3am and heard the teaser for that discussion, but missed it. Besides “don’t buy a house”, what else was said worth noting? I ask because I was looking forward to hearing it.
Today’s “investors” = tomorrow’s slumlords
“As the markets become more saturated with rentals, you may find these guys going to a Section 8 model — if they don’t decide to sell — simply because they don’t want these houses sitting empty”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/wall-street-s-rental-bet-brings-quandary-housing-poor.html
“Across the country, a growing number of single-family rentals provide an option for many who lost their homes in the housing crash through foreclosure and for those who cannot obtain a mortgage under today’s tougher credit conditions. But the decline in homeownership is also changing many neighborhoods in profound ways, including reduced home values, lower voter turnout and political influence, less social stability and higher crime.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/29/business/economy/as-renters-move-in-and-neighborhoods-change-homeowners-grumble.html
The Section 8 payment allowable on these houses has always been the floor for the rental model. What do the hedge funds care. If it cash flows at the Section 8 payment then let the good times roll.
And we’re getting ready to get millions more Section 8 “renters” made legal!
And we’re getting ready to get millions more Section 8 “renters” made legal!
FWIW, unlike with foodstamps, there is no “carte blanche” for Section 8. In SoCal the waiting lists are five years long. All the shamnesty will accomplish is to make those waiting lists even longer.
Heck, even in tony Ft. Collins there is a waiting list for Section 8. And if you’re childless, you can pretty much forget about it.
One of the people in my office bought a house in Aurora (near Iliff and Peoria, east of I-225) some twenty years ago. This is definitely not an in-demand part of the metro like Broomfield. When the bubble popped her neighborhood turned into a real sh*thole, all the blame for which she placed on “those f*ing renters”. The sense of entitlement with which she talks about it is disgusting. Neighborhoods can and do change, and they don’t always get better. Growing up in the Rust Belt I am well aware of this. Being a Denver native, she must have thought the good times would just roll on forever. Aurora is a toilet, I’m so happy when I leave work and drive out of here every day.
Aurora is a toilet
My understanding is that it has always been a cesspool.
Is it even possible to have a city without one?
Is it even possible to have a city without one?
I’ve read rumors that houses in Hudson Ohio don’t have or need toilets.
that’s because people in hudson all have servants from stow and streetsboro who hold their chamber pots for them while they take a dump.
There is not enough Section 8 assistance available to prop up all those houses. There is certainly not enough political support for it.
MARKETS
Updated August 28, 2013, 6:46 p.m. ET
Detroit’s Woes Add to Angst Over Municipal Debt
Prices Have Fallen Further Than Other Bonds
By MIKE CHERNEY and KELLY NOLAN
CONNECT
Municipal-bond prices have fallen further than other debt amid rising U.S. interest rates this summer, highlighting investor jitters spurred by Detroit’s record-setting bankruptcy filing.
Bonds from some financially troubled issuers, like Puerto Rico and Chicago, have been particularly hard hit. Debt from the Windy City, which was downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service last month amid questions about its pension liabilities, now yield about 1.50 percentage points more than a municipal market benchmark, up from about one percentage point in early July, according to Dan Toboja, senior vice president in fixed-income trading at investment bank and broker-dealer B.C. Ziegler & Co. in Chicago. Higher yields indicate lower prices.
“Credit concerns are front and center in this market,” Mr. Toboja said.
Debt prices in general have weakened since May, and the Motor City’s bankruptcy filing in July only added to the selloff. Here, the Detroit skyline.
The Motor City’s case has been particularly worrisome for municipal-bond investors because the city’s emergency manager has indicated that bondholders could see significant losses, undermining investors’ assumption that states and cities would raise taxes as much is necessary to repay them.
Yields on investment-grade municipal bonds have risen to almost the same as similarly rated corporate bonds. That is a rare occurrence, considering municipal bonds have lower default rates and the interest is generally tax free. As of Tuesday, yields on corporate bonds were 3.37% and yields on municipal bonds were 3.33%, according to investment-grade indexes from Barclays. Typically, municipal bonds yield about 25% less than corporate bonds.
Debt prices in general have weakened since May. The Federal Reserve has discussed slowing its easy-money policies as the economy improves, prompting long-term bond yields to increase. The Fed has been buying $85 billion a month in Treasury notes and mortgage bonds to stimulate the economy by keeping rates low but could start reducing those asset purchases soon, which could push interest rates higher.
The municipal-market selloff has been steeper, though, thanks in part to Detroit’s bankruptcy filing on July 18, which listed more than $18 billion in obligations and is the largest municipal bankruptcy filing ever. When rates rise, prices on existing bonds fall.
A few Michigan municipalities have decided to postpone bond sales, because investors spooked by Detroit’s filing have demanded interest rates that were too high.
Detroit’s bankruptcy filing came at a bad time for the municipal market. Investors already had begun pulling money out of municipal-bond mutual funds due to general interest-rate fears, and large outflows have continued after the filing. Over the past 13 weeks, municipal-bond mutual funds that report weekly have seen a net outflow of $20.7 billion, while investment-grade corporate funds have seen a net inflow of nearly $7 billion, according to data provider Lipper.
Municipal-fund outflows “tend to pick up momentum when you have negative headlines like Detroit,” said Tom Weyl, director of municipal strategy at Barclays. “Certainly, Detroit has added to what was happening already.”
…
You can invest in only one.
Which do you pick? Which is going to be around for you to get your money back?
Detroit, Chicago, Camden, Newark, Buffalo, Cleveland or Philly GO Bonds
30 year Treasuries
Microsoft Bonds
Yep.
Pretty telling.
Here we go again.
HEARD ON THE STREET
August 28, 2013, 4:01 p.m. ET
Going Down the Wrong Mortgage Road
Bank Regulators Backtracked on a Key Provision Tied to Mortgages and Down Payments While They Should Take a Longer-Term View
By DAVID REILLY
CONNECT
So much for skin in the game.
No- or low-money-down mortgages helped fuel the housing bubble and subsequent crash. Following the crisis, there were understandable calls for a return to more prudent practices, where borrowers would be required to make some sort of down payment for a mortgage, typically equal to 20% or 10% of a loan’s value.
As part of that push, bank regulators included a 20% down-payment requirement in proposed rules that would determine whether banks had to retain for a period of time mortgages that they planned to package and sell on to investors. On Wednesday, regulators backtracked in the face of stiff opposition from the real-estate industry, members of Congress and many banks.
In an unusual revision to their original proposal, the regulators dropped the down-payment requirement. The argument against this measure revolves around credit availability. The fear is that, with lending standards having been tightened significantly in the wake of the crisis, lower-income and other borrowers would find it tougher to get mortgages.
Indeed, that is a risk. And it looms large in regulators’ minds given the importance they, and in particular the Federal Reserve, have placed on trying to revive housing as a means to speed up economic recovery.
Yet it is also worth remembering that lax lending standards were what got the economy into a mess in the first place. Regulators themselves, in their revised proposal, acknowledge that academic research and their own analysis indicate down-payment levels “are significant factors in determining the probability of mortgage default.”
…
The WSJ editors introduce this story in the dead tree edition as “A Victory for Housing.”
I’m looking forward to a whole lot of historical revisionism when the latest move into subprime mortgage lending blows up due to the current push back to lax lending standards.
MARKETS
August 28, 2013, 2:47 p.m. ET
Regulators Back Away From Tougher Mortgage Rules
A Win for Housing Lobby, But Critics Warn of Toxic Loans
By ALAN ZIBEL And NICK TIMIRAOS
CONNECT
WASHINGTON—Federal regulators retreated from a proposal that would have toughened rules for the mortgage securities market, a defeat for advocates of tighter standards and a victory for the housing lobby.
Six regulators—including the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Securities and Exchange Commission—on Wednesday issued new proposed rules that would require banks and other issuers of mortgage-backed securities to retain 5% of the credit risk of the bonds on their books, as mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law.
FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said rules still will limit toxic loans.
However, the proposal carries an exemption so broad it wouldn’t apply to securities containing most mortgages made under today’s stricter lending standards, which are of relatively low risk. Rather, the rule would apply to the types of higher-risk loans that were popular before the 2008 financial crisis. The rule effectively sets boundaries for what kind of loans might be offered, and on what terms, once lending standards relax.
Had the rule been in effect last year, at least 98% of loans would have been covered by the exemption, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
The decision by regulators represented a major concession to the real-estate industry and consumer groups that had worried the 5% requirement would hurt the housing recovery by limiting credit.
The proposed rules still would severely limit the types of toxic loan products, such as loans with low “teaser” rates that reset at higher levels, that contributed to the financial crisis. The rules effectively prohibit “a number of the problematic practices that contributed to the recent mortgage crisis,” said Martin Gruenberg, the FDIC’s chairman.
The move was a disappointment for backers of rules that are even tighter than today’s more conservative standards. They had said that during the housing boom, lenders made too many risky loans without regard for borrowers’ ability to repay them because the lenders could quickly resell the loans to Wall Street. They said lenders would be more careful only if they had to keep a chunk of the loans on their books, giving them more to lose if borrowers default.
Some regulators agreed with that criticism. SEC Commissioner Daniel Gallagher issued a 3,000-word dissent, saying the proposed exemption was “unrealistic and dangerously broad” and would impede the development of securitized lending with risk retention.
“We are delivering exactly the type of implicit endorsement that led to the massive expansion of subprime” mortgage-backed securities before the crisis, he wrote in his dissent.
…
I’ve always thought that the politicians and Wall Street leaders would continue doing what is profitable for them. There was no political consequence for politicians from the 2008 crisis. <a href=”http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php”The incumbency rates have consistently been high, in line with the norms of the past few decades. And there was no consequence for Wall Street leaders who continued to receive outsized compensation. So there’s no impetus to change in DC or Wall Street.
This may be a generational thing requiring the population to become more debt averse. They are the ones signing up for the yoke of debt.
This is not taking into account a market dislocation which does cause ultimately cause political fallout.
Here’s the link for the incumbency rates:
http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/reelect.php
Indian Rupee is geting crushed…
I guess it means the IT and software bubble will grow even bigger in India.
IT folks in ‘Merika, you have been warned.
Current headlines:
Indonesia raises interest rates by 50 bps
• Indian central bank acts as rupee plunges
• Brazil raises key rate to 9%, open for more hikes
The Empire of debt is crumbling at the edges.
The edge of the moon crater is forming…… ever so slowly but certainty is guaranteed.
Currency wars are starting.
Race to the bottom, baby! Everyone wants to be a net exporter!
Anyone remember how upset our trading “partners” used to be over QE1? Now they’re terrified we’re gonna shut down the printing press.
QE3 … to infinity, and beyond!
Actually, India and Brazil are very concerned that their currency is getting too cheap.
It has something to do with food prices and riots…
Might have something to do with debts denominated in dollars too…..
Plus India has failed to grab the ‘net exporter’ brass ring.
more Bad news for bonds
“WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy accelerated more quickly than expected in the second quarter thanks to a surge in exports, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to wind down a major economic stimulus program.
Other economic data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, a potential sign of faster hiring in August.
U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the April-June period, according to revised estimates released by the Commerce Department. That was more than double the pace clocked in the prior three months.
The reports could boost confidence that the economy is turning a corner despite government austerity measures and a still-high jobless rate.
How about we stir things up with some truth today?
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Suzanne researched it:
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DhPIxrzmatq0
Kim Jong Un had his ex girlfriend executed by firing squad.
http://www.itv.com/news/story/2013-08-29/kim-jong-uns-ex-girlfriend-hyon-song-wol-executed-by-firing-squad/#north-korean-singer-hyon-song-wol-ex-girlfriend-of-leader-kim-jong-un-executed_252716
Wow, just wow.
“They were accused of selling videotapes of themselves having sex and some allegedly had bibles in their possession, meaning they were treated as political dissidents, the newspaper reports.”
Translation: They pizzed him off.
Lesson: He’s a psychopath. Stay under his radar if you can.
how come you never hear a peep in the media from any of obama’s ex-girlfriends?
1- because obama is gay
2- because obama had them executed
Maybe he was a geek and Michele was the first woman who gave him the time of day?
Michelle was the first black woman Obama ever dated. When he lived in NYC, he was all about the white women. Before his 3rd yr at HLS, he worked at a Chicago firm for a summer where Michelle was an associate and she outranked him. I could be remembering this wrong, but I don’t think he asked her out until the end of that summer. Until she left her job as general counsel for U of Chi Hospital to be first lady, Michelle was always the higher earner, usually by a sizeable margin and that includes that time Barrack was a U.S. Senator. LOL.
The last straw was when fatty Kim figured out that the “Excellent Horse-Like Lady” was either Camilla Parker Bowles or Sarah Jessica Parker.
‘Excellent Horse-Like Lady’ ?!? I LOVE that song!! Didn’t Lady Blah-Blah do a cover of that one?
or perhaps a veiled reference to Katherine the Great???
Someone asked astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson what is the single most amazing fact he could share with the average person.
http://vimeo.com/57731445
Pretty amazing stuff. The clip is 3 minutes, definitely worth watching.
I’ll summarize, just in case this convinces anyone to watch the clip^^:
Our bodies, indeed our very existence, is composed entirely of matter and energy that has always existed as part of the natural universe, and will continue to exist long after each of us perishes. Therefore, when we observe the universe, it is really just the UNIVERSE OBSERVING ITSELF.
You’d think the universe might be nicer to itself.
The most amazing thing is that humans pretend they know what death is, despite having NO direct experience of it. Merely watching or knowing someone who has died does not count.
“despite having NO direct experience of it”
I predict “after death” will be much like “pre-life.” Not painful… no awareness… nothing.
Like tresho in 1713.
I predict “after death” will be much like “pre-life.” Not painful… no awareness… nothing.
You too have no idea of what you’re talking about. But that didn’t prevent you from trying.
deep, deep stuff there.
i just baked some brownies last night with 3 different kinds of herb, may have to eat some this weekend and embark on a vision quest in the mountains and contemplate the universe observing itself.
You can buy those on the mall now in CO I believe. Leadville had a shop for that. It’s always sunny in CO.
We’re made of stardust. Our homes were not built by mere men but by inconceivably large nuclear reactors billions of lightyears away that turned hydrogen into all the heavier elements.
Even crazier, given the size of the universe, it is a certainty that there are exact copies of everything we can see elsewhere in the universe. Check out http://space.mit.edu/home/tegmark/PDF/multiverse_sciam.pdf
“Not just a staple
of science fiction,
other universes are
a direct implication
of cosmological observations”
–> There is another goon squad, another RAL, etc. out there somewhere, simply based on probability.
We’re made of stardust. Our homes were not built by mere men but by inconceivably large nuclear reactors billions of lightyears away that turned hydrogen into all the heavier elements.
Here’s the process: http://aether.lbl.gov/www/tour/elements/stellar/stellar_a.html
This reminds me of
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann_brain
I think Boltzmann believed in reincarnation, sort of. The eternity of the universe/time/matter/energy means that everything will be repeated. Maybe all the time? I think it strays into my feelings of religion personally, but it is a mild opiate to me to think that all around us is illusion truly. Does not help putting gas in my car, but takes the bite off the idea that money is the answer to all around us.
“i just baked some brownies last night with 3 different kinds of herb, may have to eat some this weekend and embark on a vision quest in the mountains and contemplate the universe observing itself.”
‘ Order up for Castaneda. Carlos Castaneda, your order is ready…’
Joe Smith, that is a fantastic link.
I’ve been astounded for a long time. I’ve tried to explain it - to very smart people, mind you - and they cannot get it. It’s unremarkable to them. Good to see someone else does get it.
This gigantic machine formed itself into us, and everything we see. The universe observing itself. It does provide the sense of being part of something bigger.
Thanks for the link.
This only dawned on me in the last few yrs after watching the Cosmos (Carl Sagan) series start to finish and then reading about how it really works. It is enough to make even a hardened cynic stop and say wow. Never forget: Houses are stardust just like humans.
Never forget: Houses are stardust just like humans.
Wow, you’re right…where do I sign? I’m not too late am I? Owning a house is even cooler than having a star named after you :-).
Buy now! They aren’t making any more stardust!
Saw this the other day and wondered if this was one of those houses that was left to rot for the past few years.
http://guests.themls.com/Details/CA/Glendale/1767-Hillside-Drive/91208/SR13174035CN.aspx
Year Built: 1926
$400K for an 87 year old, rotting crap shack that she be torn down and rebuilt from the foundation up?
Yikes.
Corelogic just put out their “National Foreclosure” report for the month of July. For people who are looking at distress as an indicator for what is happening to the markets, I recommend taking a look. You may need to give some personal information to get the data, but it’s available generally to the public.
And what does it say Pimp?
It shows that homes are still being foreclosed upon (contrary to your continued statements that there are moratoriums in all 50 states). Last month, 49,000 foreclosures were completed nationwide, in the last 12 months, 685,000 foreclosures were completed nationwide.
And it shows that non-judicial states have much lower levels of distressed inventory than judicial states.
Specifically it shows that now CA and AZ have relatively quite low percentage of mortgages in foreclosure. Both are just below 1% at 0.99% (CA) and 0.95% (AZ), where large judicial states like NY, FL, NJ, and IL are at 4.7%, 8.11%, 5.86%, and 3.4% respectively.
There is a similar story for serious delinquencies. CA and AZ are at 3.47% and 3.03%, respectively, and NY, FL, NJ and IL are at 7.99%, 12.67%, 10.79%, and 7.21%, respectively.
Good job at misrepresenting data.
And the 25 MILLION excess empty houses, 4 million of which are in California?
The report is the report, the data is the data.
Get over it.
I have nothing to get over. You on the other hand….
You really put the “anal” in analyst.
We’re diligent in our analysis, always.
HA turns an insult into a compliment; good show!
For ANY city, county or state:
Long term democrat rule + public unions = ruin and bankruptcy.
And yes Dorothy - NJ is a long time democrat controlled state.
And there is no greater fool going to buy a house with insane property taxes unless they are promised insane appreciation to sell to the next fool.
———————-
New Jersey Property Tax Problems
Aug 29, 2013 - Bill Anderson - my9nj.com
The mayor of one New Jersey town is actually moving out because he claims he can’t afford to pay the property taxes there.
Egg Harbor Mayor Sonny McCullough bought his home in 1985 for about $350,000 and according to him, now he is officially taxed out.
In 2012, Egg Harbor property taxes were increased by 60% making his home now worth $1.1 million and that comes with close to a $35,000 tax bill.
Depending on which formula you use, New Jersey is either number one or number two in the country for pricey property taxes.
McCullough said, “property tax is the unfairest tax in the world. It’s not based on someone’s ability to earn money. It’s based on the property value.”
Of the property taxes, 60% come from school taxes, 30% is for the township and local taxes make up less than 10% of the property tax bill.
This seems to be a problem for many residents across New Jersey.
One Hightstown resident, who is selling their house, said that property taxes are a big factor as to why many people are moving out.
The woman said, “The property taxes are killing me and nobody is buying because of the taxes in Hightstown, this is the third time we put the house up for sale.”
Egg Harbor is governed locally, in the NJ Statehouse, and in Congress by Republicans.
Specifically list what Egg Harbor (or any local government) could do to cut costs given the NJ STATE laws on public unions.
Put in place by long term democrat rule on the STATE level.
————————-
New Jersey public worker bargaining rules are rigged; the state should take over contract talks
Star-Ledger - March 01, 2010
Jun Choi was a young mayor in Edison when the police contract came due for renegotiation.
He wanted to contain the outrageous costs. Police officers were earning more than $100,000 on average, eight of them topping $200,000. They worked a cushy schedule, four days on and four days off. And they were entitled to retire after 25 years with 65 percent of their highest salary.
But when Choi stood up to them, he lost everything. The police union knew it didn’t have to budge because in New Jersey, these standoffs land in binding arbitration — a bureaucratic process that makes it almost impossible to cut costs.’
The guiding principle in arbitration is that cops in one town are entitled to roughly the same raises as cops in the surrounding towns. So if a mayor like Choi wants to break the cycle, he can’t.
Just to make sure, the police union in Edison organized a major effort against Choi during the next election. His lead in the polls soon evaporated, and he was beaten.
“Right before the election they were putting heavy pressure on me to concede,” Choi says. “A lot of these guys grew up in town. They have families and grandparents and friends, and they’re very organized.”
In all, public employee unions have more than 400,000 members in New Jersey, about 5 percent of the population. Add those friends and family, and their abundant campaign cash, and they are hard to beat in a low-turnout local election.
If you want to understand why New Jersey has the highest property taxes in the nation — an average of $7,281 and rising — this is a good place to start.
The biggest cost to schools and towns, by far, is labor. And we have the highest-paid police and firefighters in the country, with the teachers not far behind.
Not surprisingly, the unions love the way binding arbitration works. Even the threat of arbitration gives them a powerful lever. The mayors hate it.
A similar system for teachers works out the same way — the teachers union loves it, and school boards hate it.
3.5% property taxes is not unusual in Texas. 3.2% is average.
California is 1% (excluding special assessments, which can add as little as 0.1%, or more–I think I’m at about 1.1%).
Property tax cannot legally exceed 1.2% of the assessed value anywhere in California.
Behold the power of the financial media!
In a new blog posting “Inflection Points: Why Demand for Bonds Will Rebound” on Pimco’s website, COO Douglas Hodge argues that the media are in part to blame for the recent rush out of bonds.
Don’t believe the “media” hype about bonds, says Hodge.
“In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the media – which play a large role in setting the tone of the markets and the psyche of investors – went from being cheerleaders for bonds, stressing their virtues and role in maintaining a diversified portfolio, to romancing the notion that bonds are riskier than stocks.”
I wanna buy a bunch of houses that cash flow at 20% annually with no mortgage. Is that too much to ask?
Given that every other type of real estate trades at less than a 10% unleveraged yield? Yes, 20% is WAY too much to ask.
In the best locations, apartments are currently trading at sub-6% cap rates (if not sub-5%).
Going back to the mid-80’s (I don’t have data further back), there was no time that apartments traded at greater than a 10% cap rate (yield on cost).
Oh, I have a house that yields 20% annually. I just want more.
And what yield would it sell for today?
Less, but I’m talking about after the prices continue onward with their crash.
There is $40T out there looking for yields, and they’re willing to accept WAY, WAY, WAY less than 20%.
So, yeah.
But most of those people were too scared to buy when the price was right, and they are about to find out that Blackstone isn’t going to do it for them, so they will be too scared again when the price is right again (not to mention broke). I figure I’ll just get more houses later.
The price for housing hasn’t been “right” in over a decade.
Sit tight, be patient and above all else, hold onto your cash because you’ll have plenty of houses to choose from as this correction gets under way.
RAL post crash:
“Buy a house today because tomorrow it will be worth 65% more!” or maybe “Housing is a gain, ALWAYS”
Until the collapse, the losses are massive and guaranteed.
Syrian airstrikes = Once more, our government wants to stick Mr Jimmy into the beehive.
Loss of credibility is what happens when your government/elite lie about everything.
“The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.”
–Presidential Candidate Obama in an interview with Charlie Savage, December 20, 2007
“Loss of credibility is what happens when your government/elite lie about everything.”
We’re 30 years down that rabbit hole.
Evidently there is an old Haitian saying:
“If work was so great, the rich people would have stolen it all by now”
Haiti is what you get over time, when the 1% are allowed to steal all of the earnings of the 99%.
We are turning into Haiti, with guns.
If only Haiti had bigger and bigger government and higher and higher taxes they could blaze a way into prosperity…
If Haiti had a functioning, competent and non-corrupt strong central government, I doubt they’d be in the wretched state they’re currently in.
On the other hand, Golden Boy nailed it the other day with this quote: ““When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.” — P.J. O’Rourke
Government power is like a bell curve. Too strong, too centralized leads to suboptimal outcomes. Too weak, too decentralized also leads to suboptimal outcomes.
Hati listened to US economist and got rid of inefficient small farms and instead imported cheaper food from the US.
Now the farms are gone and they don’t have the money to import food.
Oops.
This Syria thing has to be a banner event for Raytheon (manufacturer of the Tomahawk Missile as successor to McDonnell-Douglas). Yay contractors. USA USA USA. A little over $1MM per missile.
Meanwhile, reptiles complain about some egghead in a university lab getting a $22k grant to study endangered frog species or $43k to analyze earthquake predictions in non-fault line areas. LOL, just LOL at reptiles. You’re done here.
Reptiles…. lolz
You go Liberace!
government employees = parasites
government contractors =
bootstrappers
invisible hand of free market
galt gulch
horatio alger
born in a log cabin
rags to riches
makers, not takers
producers
job creators
restore our future
take america back
keep on rocking in the free world
http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120205155219/customherofactory/images/0/0c/Img-haters-gonna-hate-panda-352.jpeg
Fill your portfolio with Raytheon stock, and your 401k will grow fat on the blood of Syrians.
Woo-hoo! Mondo publicity! See page 9 of this mag…
I wanted to check it out but Flash keeps crashing on my old work XP box trying to show me the page and all I end up seeing it a big array of covers.
You’re not the only one who’s having trouble with that Flash plugin, Carl. It’s giving us fits here in Tucson too.
And it’s not just venerable XP boxes like hours. It’s also wreaking havoc on a client’s Mac.
In the meantime, here’s a blurb that should work for everyone.
OK, thanks. Well, no more anonymity, I guess…although I think you already gave us enough to find you before. I look forward to seeing some of the pictures…
As you struggle to meet your household budget needs in this age of austerity, you can comfort yourself with the realization that banks are earning record profits. They appreciate the interest payments you contribute to their bottom lines.
Aug. 29, 2013, 2:43 p.m. EDT
FDIC: U.S. banks earned record amount in Q2
By Michael R. Crittenden
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. banks earned a record amount in the second quarter as asset quality continued to improve and lending modestly increased, a top federal regulator said Thursday.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s quarterly snapshot of U.S. banks highlights the recovery of an industry that five years ago had to be bailed out by U.S. taxypayers. U.S. banks reported higher earnings for the 16th-consecutive quarter, with the $42.2 billion in earnings recorded during the second quarter a new high.
The return on assets for U.S. banks, a key measure of profitability, reached its highest level in six years, the FDIC said.
The FDIC said the amount of loans banks had to charge off fell 31% in the second quarter, to $14.2 billion, while the percentage of loans and leases that were at least 90 days past due fell to the lowest level since 2008.
…
If you keep saving your money, perhaps you, too, can some day purchase a home with a 100% down payment.
I keep hoping…
SHOE-SHINE BOY MOMENT!
Aug. 29, 2013, 2:40 p.m. EDT
Nearly half of homes are purchased in cash
The real-estate recovery is being driven by all-cash buyers
By Quentin Fottrell
More Americans are buying homes in all-cash deals, according to several recent studies. But real- estate experts say this increase may not be a good sign for the health of the housing market.
All-cash purchases accounted for 40% of all sales of residential property in July 2013, up from 35% during the previous month and 31% in July 2012, according to data from real-estate data firm RealtyTrac released Thursday. That’s the second highest rate since the survey began in January 2011 – second only to 53% in March 2012.
Another report by Goldman Sachs last week was even more strongly in the cash-is-king camp, estimating that cash sales now accounted for 57% of all residential home sales versus 19% in 2005. Walt Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, says that the association’s estimates of the share of the market made up by all-cash buyers are lower than the others, at 31% in July, but that they’re still at an all-time high.
…
So, if another report is to be believed, less than 20% of sales now are investors, so does that mean (assuming that all investors are cash buyers) that (57%-20%)/(100%-20%)=46% of all new owner-occupants are paying cash?
Doesn’t this mean that perhaps interest rates don’t matter as much?
“So, if another report is to be believed, less than 20% of sales now are investors,…”
If the information that almost 50% of recent sales are all-cash is correct, then your other report is not, and vice versa.
So, people who are buying houses to live in can’t pay cash?
One report was talking about all-cash buyers.
The other report was talking about investor buyers (usually counted as people who have their property tax bill sent to an address other than the address of the home).
I posted the article a couple of days ago:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100988740
They are different pieces of data.
Lots of people have vacation homes, and get their tax bill sent to a different address. They may secretly be speculators, but they don’t consider themselves as such.
“Lots of people have vacation homes”
Now we’re gettin down to the crux of the biscuit.
98% of of all “vacation” ‘homes’ are held by aging boomers. These are just beginning to hit the market as boomer have just begun to liquidate and enter assisted living facilities.
On the other hand, who needs a mortgage when you can afford to pay cash?
Aug. 28, 2013, 7:49 a.m. EDT
U.S. mortgage applications down 2.5%: MBA
By MarketWatch
The number of mortgage applications filed in the U.S. last week dropped 2.5% from the prior week as interest rates climbed, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
The MBA also reported that the refinance index slid 5% from a week earlier, while the seasonally adjusted purchase index grew 2%.
A run-up in interest rates had curbed some individuals’ appetite to buy new homes and reduced the appeal of mortgage refinancing, though mortgage rates have steadied somewhat after a torrid increase this summer.
The share of applications filled to refinance existing mortgages fell to 60%, from 61% a week earlier. In the latest week, adjusted-rate mortgages, or ARMs, represented 7% of total applications.
…
Obama: Assault Weapon Industry’s No. 1 Customer, Buys 600,000 AK-47 Magazines
August 27, 2013
There he goes again. President Obama’s anti-gun administration, which recently pushed legislation banning assault weapons and large ammo magazines, is proving again that it is the industry’s No. 1 customer.
On the heels of major purchases of AR-15-styled weapons for agencies like the IRS and millions of bullets used by assault-weapons and similar semi-automatic arms owned by federal forces, the Army has just announced that it is buying nearly 600,000 high capacity AK-47 Kalashnikov rifle magazines.
The gun is popular among collectors and target shooters, and was the weapon of choice used by this week’s Georgia school shooter. But while fans of the gun help keep small weapon accessory companies in business, the Army’s purchase is a major boost for an industry the president and his grassroots campaign, Organizing for Action, has spent the summer attacking.
It’s just one purchase in a string of AK-47 equipment buys from the Feds.
Read More at The Washington Examiner . By Paul Bedard.
http://www.westernjournalism.com/obama-assault-weapon-industrys-1-customer-buys-600000-ak-47-magazines/ - 71k -
I’m on the verge of throwing in the pessimist towel and going all-in to stocks. With so many dire prognostications for the stock market, is it safe to say that no crash is even a remote possibility this fall?
Five things that could shake markets, starting in September
August 29, 2013, 10:43 AM
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, has clearly been lying awake at night, thinking, or sweating about all the things that could go wrong this autumn for markets. He likely isn’t alone, given the headaches from Syria and the Middle East adding to our sore Fed-heads. And then there’s that thing abut September — traditionally the weakest month of the year for risk assets.
Hartnett’s latest note, published Thursday, is called ‘Get Crashy,’ and C-R-A-S-H basically spells out his biggest fears for markets:
…
Pimco CEO El-Erian: 5 years after Lehman, I’m a worrywart
August 27, 2013, 3:40 PM
Bloomberg
Pimco’s Mohamed El-Erian
The world is just a few weekends away from the fifth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and what is likely to be countless articles on what has and hasn’t changed.
Pimco CEO Mohamed A. El-Erian is getting a jump on that with his list of four developments that, like the collapse of a major investment bank, were previously considered unthinkable. In an essay published by Project Syndicate on Tuesday, he takes jabs at dysfunctional governments and policy makers that have let banks go back to business as usual, among others. He writes:
Here are El-Erian’s four worries:
…
Stock Market Crash Talk Gains More Steam
By Jon C. Ogg
August 27, 2013 10:50 am EDT
What is a stock market crash? The short answer is that it depends on your risk profile. The financial media covers a one-day drop of 4% as though it were a crash. What happened after the terror attacks in 2001 was a crash. What happened going into the recession of 2008 and 2009 was a crash. The market crash of 1987 was a crash. The bull market of 2013 is not yet dead, but talk is picking up for another market crash, even if the logic and reasoning is different in each major discussion.
Here is what is working against the bulls. The debt ceiling debate is back. Earnings growth is slowing at a time when sales growth is almost nonexistent. Greece and Italy are in the “at risk” headlines again. Emerging markets and BRIC nations just are not supporting the wild growth we all have been used to. Interest rates are rising, even while economic data remains very mixed. Egypt and Syria are becoming serious risks beyond mere discussion. And the market internals are getting more questionable. Valuations of U.S. stocks are not overly expensive, but they are not cheap anymore either.
We already had a serious call for a crash, one of 10% to 20% as a possible mirror of 1987, by gloom and doom preacher Marc Faber. And now the latest trading glitch by NASDAQ OMX Group (NASDAQ: NDAQ) brought back memories of the so-called Flash Crash. It also was just shown that margin debt, borrowing against existing stock holdings, is at a record high.
…
Stock Market Headed for a C-R-A-S-H?
U.S. GDP Grows at Healthy 2.5% Pace in Second Quarter
August 29, 2013 12:03 PM EDT
Is the market headed for a crash? That is the topic Bank of America Merrill Lynch Cheif Investment Strategist, Michael Hartnett, tackled today. The question is being asked by many investors given the recent weakness in equities amid global tension, upcoming Fed tapering, seasonal weakness and a flat-out “buyers strike.”
Conflict, Rates, Asia, Speculation and Housing - or CRASH - are all potential catalysts for a contagious autumn market event, Hartnett explains. He said investors need to pay close attention to policy reactions, bank stocks, China, the MOVE index, forced selling and mortgage applications as barometers of pain.
…
The best part about this story is yet to come, when the last wave of housing market volatility body-slams the bubble into perpetual flatness on the earth’s surface.
As investors shift, housing is the new stock market
Published: Tuesday, 27 Aug 2013 | 9:04 AM ET
By: Diana Olick | CNBC Real Estate Reporter
Getty Images
All it took was a historic crash that created an epic opportunity: Housing has morphed from a form of shelter to one of the most popular tradable assets, thanks to a huge influx of institutional investors in a mammoth, albeit decreasing, supply of distressed properties. That is why it should come as no surprise the housing market is now nearly as volatile as the stock market.
“We’ve seen more volatility in real estate in the past five years than we have in the past 500,” said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, an online real estate sales company.
…
So much crash talk, so little crash.
Isn’t it interesting that crashes tend to come when very few expect one?
Housing was consistently viewed at a permanently high plateau in 2005/6.
The stock market was defying gravity during dotcom, where companies didn’t need to make money to be successful.
I’m sure there are more examples…
Being the third bubble in a row, peeps may be primed for this one.
I’m Kimmery the Eighth, I am…Kimmery the Eighth I am, I am.
Kim Jong-un’s ex-lover ‘executed by firing squad’
Kim Jong-un’s ex-girlfriend was among a dozen well-known North Korean performers who were executed by firing squad nine days ago, according to South Korean reports.
Anyone who can dance like this dude will have no problem finding another girlfriend.
Kim Jong Un - Gangnam Style
“Kim Chol was reportedly executed for drinking and carousing during the official mourning period after Kim Jong-il’s death.”
-1 You just can’t fabricate this kind of stuff.
What a kewl thing to do. Killing your girlfriend and all.
ft dot com
11:46pm WORLD
CIA budget revealed in Snowden leak
Spy agency takes 28% of $53bn annual US intelligence spending
HOUSING BUBBLE FATIGUE WARNING:
Some of us are approaching the one-decade mark of participation in this conversation. And the bubble’s inception extends back much further. The episode is assuming epic duration and an air of inevitability about its indefinite continuation has reentered the public psyche.
Yawn…
I have coworkers. At a job. The company is dying, but still has a tiny chance at survival beyond a year or two from now.
All of my coworkers want to buy a house, even though the median house price in this city is out of line with rents and incomes. This is a city with precious few jobs available as replacements for the ones that will likely be lost when this company folds. None of these people will admit to being speculators. I guess it’s distasteful, even though it must be true.
I want to own ten houses without a mortgage, and they should all cash-flow at 20% annually.