June 2, 2006

Moment Of Truth Coming For New York Real Estate

A trio of reports on the New York housing bubble. “The moment of truth is coming sooner for New York real estate sellers, and sometimes it’s not pretty. Real estate agents are increasingly finding that sellers who hoped to make a killing on their properties need to inject their visions of profits with a dose of reality when they price their apartments, or go through the time-consuming process of marking them down.”

“‘You need to sit down and establish a relationship with the seller. They have to see that the market is in flux at the moment.’ says associate broker Eileen Richter. ‘One thing I tell them when the market gets a little soft is that I want them to be aware of the price I will take them to.’”

“For some agents, convincing sellers that it’s time to reduce a price, or that they shouldn’t ask for as much as they want in the first place, means confronting them with the cold, hard facts. If a seller really wants to sell his property, they’ll typically understand the wisdom of taking a more aggressive approach, said agent Pierre Moran. ‘I ask them: ‘you hired me to do what?’ ‘I can be Mr. Nice Guy, but you didn’t hire me to be Mr. Nice Guy.’”

“Moran is currently marketing one of just a handful of townhouses in Battery Park City, the original asking price: $3 million. Moran says original price was set by the owner against his recommendation, but it was what the seller wanted. ‘I prepared the guy up front as much as I could,’ Moran said. After two months with very little action, Moran reduced the price on the Battery Park townhouse to $2.75 million.”

“‘Will it sell for $2.6, $2.5? We’ll see,’ Moran said.”

“How prices are set and reduced are just as important as timing, brokers and agents say. If an apartment was priced at $850,000, reducing it by just $10,000 would probably be a waste of time, (broker) Jacky Teplitzky says. ‘I will not reduce it to $840,000 or $830,000. In my opinion, you are not going to get new buyers. If you reduce it in drops, it becomes a stale listing.’”

“Instead, she says she would probably take a listing that hadn’t gotten offers at $849,000 and reduce it to $799,000. ‘At the end of the day, the market is being made by the buyer, not by the seller,’ says Teplitzky.”

The Long Island Business News. “Local Realtors, in the middle of prime buying and selling season, say they’re working harder to sell 56 percent more homes than were on the market this time last year. ‘Everybody feels the change in the market,’ Mark Malsky said.”

“As the market changes, inventory is soaring as sellers attempt to cash out before buyers seize the upper hand. In April, the region’s total inventory, which includes Queens, topped more than 36,000, up 56 percent from a year ago. Suffolk homebuyers could pick from 14,951 properties, up almost 48 percent from 10,125 the year earlier. Nassau lists 10,532, up 58.6 percent from 6,641 a year ago.”

“Some buyers are holding out, convinced the much-discussed bubble is poised to pop and prices will plummet. They’re wrong, said Pearl Kamer, chief economist at the Long Island Association. ‘Prices are a little softer, but they’re not going over the cliff,’ she said. ‘Buyers have the mistaken notion that next week there’s going to be a 20 percent reduction in prices. That’s not going to happen.’”

“Sellers, however, remain enchanted by those eye-popping gains of late, and many are still holding out for what are now excessive prices.”

“The number of existing single-family houses sold in the Hudson Valley and Catskill regions year over year in April was down while prices continued to rise. According to New York State Association of Realtors spokesman Salvatore Prividera, Jr., the drop off in home sales in the local area mirrors what is going on statewide.”

“‘There is a slowdown in the number of sales, which is atypical for this time of year; usually in the spring and summer months, it’s very strong here in New York. Seasonally, the winter months tend to be slower,’ he said. ‘What you’re seeing in the Catskills and we’re seeing statewide is really a readjustment in the market.”

“Sales of existing single-family homes in April fell by 20 percent in Columbia County, by 50 percent in Delaware County, by 13 percent in Dutchess County, by 32 percent in Greene County, by 30 percent in Orange County, by three percent in Rockland County, by almost four percent in Sullivan County, by 20 percent in Ulster County and by 19 percent in Westchester County.”




RSS feed | Trackback URI

99 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-06-02 09:31:34

Thanks to the readers who sent in or posted these links. Here are more links, including some that are PDF’s.

Comment by waaahoo
2006-06-02 11:05:54

Dr. Pearl. Dr.Pearl. Paging Dr. Pearl. If anyone actually sold a place it would be for more than 20% off the asking.

 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 13:50:06

The Long Island Business News. “Local Realtors, in the middle of prime buying and selling season, say they’re working harder to sell 56 percent more homes than were on the market this time last year. ‘Everybody feels the change in the market,’ Mark Malsky said.”

“As the market changes, inventory is soaring as sellers attempt to cash out before buyers seize the upper hand. In April, the region’s total inventory, which includes Queens, topped more than 36,000, up 56 percent from a year ago. Suffolk homebuyers could pick from 14,951 properties, up almost 48 percent from 10,125 the year earlier. Nassau lists 10,532, up 58.6 percent from 6,641 a year ago.”

Truth is, inventory has DOUBLED since March 05.

LIMLS numbers:

03/31/05 15,524
02/19/06 24,691
03/25/06 26,893
04/03/06 27,143
05/03/06 29,196
05/11/06 30,089
05/21/06 31,048
05/29/06 31,595

Double. There. :) Double!

That’s muchas haciendas!

Comment by LIrenter
2006-06-02 14:21:39

thank you for posting that - i knew i had read that inventory was up 100% from last year…wow, they lied, guess i shouldn’t be surprised..

 
 
 
Comment by liwaiting
2006-06-02 09:40:39

LI prices are most certainly going off the cliff, and soon.

Comment by LIrenter
2006-06-02 11:08:21

yes, not “next week” as Kamer states, but check back with her in a few months and things will be totally different…

 
Comment by Neil
2006-06-02 11:37:01

Its amazing that they are in denial that closing prices aren’t going to drop. Again, I expect we’ll have a flat to up market through the summer… but wait for the fall. By October 15th, we’ll know prices are down.

Neil

Comment by david cee
2006-06-03 04:07:51

Why would anyone be looking to buy during summer, when the beach and mountains are available. It’s not like there won’t be a ton of houses available after the vacation. Selling panic will begin July 4, when there is no buyers left anywhere

 
 
 
Comment by huggybear
2006-06-02 09:47:01

…said agent Pierre Moran. ‘I ask them: ‘you hired me to do what?’ ‘I can be Mr. Nice Guy, but you didn’t hire me to be Mr. Nice Guy.’”

Please “No More Mr. Nice Guy” (cue Alice Cooper)…Speak the TRUTH realtors and get the prices headed down in a nice orderly fashion.

Comment by mrincomestream
2006-06-02 14:26:59

Orderly is not in the cards

 
 
Comment by waiting_in_la
2006-06-02 09:50:14

‘Buyers have the mistaken notion that next week there’s going to be a 20 percent reduction in prices. That’s not going to happen.’”

If you keep saying it, people might believe it …
ha! The market will correct itself, dumbass.

2006-06-02 10:02:32

Let me just be the first to say: HAAAAA-WOOOO-AAAAAAA-HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HAAAAAAAA

Don’t just love that attitude. “Buyers …. mistaken” How many times have the dumbasses tried to use those is the same sentence in 2006. We all know who is really mistaken….any seller who thinks he can tell a declining market what to do.

2006-06-02 10:41:06

Folks, there already is a de facto reduction THIS WEEK. How so? All the flippers have already *spent* a 20% gain YoY. Even if they get a 0% YoY, that’s still a massive discount to what the flippers have banked on — not just fantasized about, but have most likely already spent or planned to spend. It’s callled the Permanent Income Hypothesis. And it works quite well. Or in laymen’s terms…people mentally spend every chicken before they hatch — even borrow against and plan for every chicken, long before the eggs hatch.

Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 11:09:18

And it works quite well. Or in laymen’s terms…people mentally spend every chicken before they hatch — even borrow against and plan for every chicken, long before the eggs hatch.

Beward the chicken bubble!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 10:03:19

Pearl Kamer said…. ‘Buyers have the mistaken notion that next week there’s going to be a 20 percent reduction in prices. That’s not going to happen.’”

You’re correct Pearl. It will likely be greater than a 20% slide downward over 2-4 years which will be far more painful than the quick consolidation that you speak of.

Comment by NjGal
2006-06-02 10:19:12

I wonder if Pearl can also tell me the winning lottery numbers for the next Mega Millions drawing.

It just kills me that when it comes to prices rising, they can find every reason for it to make sense, but they just cannot fathom that they can fall. Guess what Pearl? When sellers see their homes sit on the market all summer, you will see price drops.

Comment by Bubbles
2006-06-02 12:03:54

I guess it is time to say it (dropping prices off the cliff) is the new paradigm… Its the new economy… It will drop and drop and go below zero where sellers will pay buyers to own a property. :-)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by scavenger
2006-06-02 12:42:38

“dropping prices off the cliff” …

http://www.animationartgallery.com/images/CJL/CJLRROC.jpg

 
Comment by sm_landlord
2006-06-02 14:02:54
 
 
 
Comment by desidude
2006-06-02 11:06:45

Why not ask for price protection guarantee for next five years!
That would get them to speak the truth!

 
Comment by Peter Gerard
2006-06-02 13:15:06

My goodness Lingus, I agree with you. Thank you for not injecting politics into the argument.

 
 
Comment by Out at the Peak
2006-06-02 11:25:27

As the article states, in the end the market is the buyer. Prices have to adjust to what the highest bid will be.

 
 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 09:52:12

Hmmmm….. “Salvatore Prividera”…… Does that tell you anything about the urban slime slithering around in New York?

Comment by TheGuru
2006-06-02 10:16:41

For a liberal POS, you are a bigoted vermin. You are the biggest liberal poser hypocrite I have ever come across in my life. Stay up in lower Canada you freak.

Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 10:18:29

You sound angry today Gayru…… go fetch me a 2 by 4 Tony.

Comment by Joe
2006-06-02 10:32:20

Don’t feed the Lingus.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 10:42:44

Don’t be a hypocrite.

 
Comment by TheGuru
2006-06-02 10:58:41

“Gayru?” Real original, douchebag.

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 11:07:55

Take it easy Tony….. take 5… then get back to work.

 
Comment by Moopheus
2006-06-02 11:16:42

Remember that old episode of Star Trek where they pick up the guy who’s chasing his twin from the alternate antimatter universe, and if they meet, the universe will be destroyed, so Kirk has to lock them in a weird space between dimensions where they’ll just fight each other forever and ever without end? For some reason I am reminded of that today.

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 11:23:25

LMAO….. Very true moopheus…… On a more serious note…. I write one simple sentence on this topic and the next thing I know, the weirdos jump on it like an ethiopian on a rice cake….. You’d think they’d be embarrassed for swinging off my scrotum on a daily basis. There are so many now that there’s barely enough room for another….LMAO!!!!!!!!!

 
 
Comment by Roberto
2006-06-02 10:33:27

TheLingus, if you are using this person’s Italian-sounding name to make a judgement on his and other’s character just because of the fact that he sounds like he may be Italian (i.e. ‘mafia’ cliche), than yes, you are making a bigoted comment. It’s rather uncalled for and insulting to this Italian-American renter.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Sammy schadenfreude
2006-06-02 12:54:12

Lingus, I’ve defended you before, based on a shared dislike of many of the Massholes and CT/NJ/NY scum that I’ve encountered over the years. However, to assume from a name or ethnicity that someone is “slime” is inexcusable ignorance and small-mindedness.

 
 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-06-02 10:54:27

If you touch the lingus you’ll get lingus all over the place and pretty soon we’ll all be covered in lingus. you don’t want that so don’t touch the lingus.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 10:55:14

lmao.

 
Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 11:12:58

I only respond directly to the Lingus in threads three below the top.

To be honest he is to be pitied. What kind of person must this guy be that he needs to do this here? His politics are irrelevant, he seeks attention only.

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 11:15:13

I don’t understand why you whiners always have to interject politics into the discussion….. Like Waiting in SD said, this is a housing blog…. lets keep it that way.

 
Comment by moqui
2006-06-02 11:39:01

Sprayed my keyboard and monitor with Tinactin…now go away

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 11:43:07

Comment by moqui
2006-06-02 11:39:01
Sprayed my keyboard and monitor with Tinactin…now go away .
_________________________________________________
Amen brother…… Amen.

 
 
 
2006-06-02 10:42:38

Have you ever met one that wasn’t?

Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 10:46:37

Comment by Suzanne, I researched this!
2006-06-02 10:42:38
Have you ever met one that wasn’t?
____________________________________________________
Not really. It seems all rightwingers are hypocrites as evidenced by the authoritarians posing as Christians.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Waiting in SD
2006-06-02 11:02:48

This is a housing blog, lets keep it that way!!!! You can talk politics somewhere else. This site should be used to gain good information on the housing market.

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 11:05:29

Agreed.

 
 
 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 13:27:16

“For a liberal POS, you are a bigoted vermin.”

No, not really. Just showing his true extreme left wing/ commie colors. :)

Loves the Chinese government, too! What a surprise! NOT!

Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 13:44:36

I’m an extreme left wing/ commie because trickle down economics brought to you by republicans on behalf of big business failed?

That’s a very childish, simplistic deduction.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 13:59:19

I’m an extreme left wing/ commie because…..

I have no idea why. Oh, and I forgot bigot.

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 14:06:13

Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 13:59:19
I’m compelled to respond to Lingus’s posts because I haven’t the mental fortitude or will not to.
________________________________________________
And?

 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 14:17:06

Of course, left wing extremists like you are a dime a dozen, and everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, but I don’t understand why Ben Jones allows bigots like you to post here, really.

 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 14:32:34

In fact, I believe you owe all Italian- Americans, Italians and their loved ones an apology. This board is read far and wide, and you have obviously offended many with your bigoted remarks.

I await your public apology.

 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 15:48:01

“Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-02 13:59:19
I’m compelled to respond to Lingus’s posts because I haven’t the mental fortitude or will not to.”

Of course, this is not my post above, but made to look as if it were. Check the post times.

Lingus, we’re all still waiting for an apology for your bigoted remarks. Surely you’ve had enough time to formulate one. Perhaps you’re indisposed. I’ll check back in the morning.

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 15:54:42

Ok Tony.

 
Comment by holgs
2006-06-02 22:54:44

Lingus,
I and many other left - leaning posters on this blog please urge you to STFU because you don’t represent the majority. Try traveling. It opens minds….

 
Comment by Price_Doubt
2006-06-03 16:46:59

It’s OK because he’s a leftist, after all. If he were a rightist who’d made repeated daily racist comments, he’d be boiled alive, and all rightists would be painted with the same broad brush.
But it’s OK, because he’s a Demonrat, so he gets a pass.

Why the double standard?

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-04 09:35:08

Gee…. where did I say I was democrat? Don’t be so foolish price doubt.

 
 
 
Comment by holgs
2006-06-02 22:51:45

Hey man… We don’t take racists here… Send him south… thanks!
Cheerio!

 
 
 
Comment by t-bone
2006-06-02 09:52:30

As has been discussed many times before, once the perception becomes entrenched among buyers that prices are dropping, it begins to snowball. They wait a month-sure enough a property they considered previously at $X is now at X-20,000. Should we buy it now? No, we don’t want to buy at the new price and have the comps drop further, let’s wait another month or so and see if things stabilize. Meanwhile sellers are becoming more desperate, and more and more bargain basement sales go through as a given seller has to get out from under the property with no gain or even a loss to take a new job, or because they can’t handle payments, or their kid just turned 5 and they suddenly need to be in a decent school district…so prices drop more. Once people have even the perception that prices are in even a very modest downturn, they are going to hold off buying until it “levels off”…this could be years.

Comment by buddhaman
2006-06-02 09:57:27

Huge amounts of new condos built in my Brooklyn nabe (Kensington) are just sitting at 400-800K. These developers think they are going to sell these boxes to who? They are starting to reduce prices already.

 
Comment by Brad
2006-06-02 10:04:45

“They wait a month-sure enough a property they considered previously at $X is now at X-20,000. Should we buy it now? No, we don’t want to buy at the new price and have the comps drop further, let’s wait another month or so and see if things stabilize.”
————————————————————-
buyers have the advantage in the waiting game because renting is so much cheaper than buying. Like you say, if they can see price reductions happening, they see that patience is paying buyers at the expense of sellers.

Comment by housegeek
2006-06-02 10:12:14

That renting is so much cheaper than buying in most NYC nabes is definitely driving the wait now. And because NYC prices are so high, the fear of drops is greater here — if you get hosed here, you’ll likely get hosed for far more than in other areas.

One humorous symptom of the flat market I’m seeing is an ever increasing number of “rent to own” ads trying to lure renters to lock in a deal for an exorbitant price right now. Some of these properties appear to be new construction jobs that the developers couldn’t sell so are now “renting to own”

Comment by Waiting in SD
2006-06-02 11:06:04

Seen a lot of that here in San Diego as well. They are all over craigslist.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Hail the chimp
2006-06-02 11:26:52

I can verify this. In fact, when I ask landlords to lower the rent, they flatly respond that what they want to charge doesn’t even cover the mortgage, never mind taxes and the rest of it. When I ask innocently “why not sell?” they get pretty agitated.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by peterbob
2006-06-02 10:15:24

Once people have even the perception that prices are in even a very modest downturn, they are going to hold off buying until it “levels off”…this could be years.

This bubble scenario will play out badly if prices take years to drop. The true measure of economic activity is the number sold, not the price. A number of years of anemic sales doesn’t help the buyer, the seller, or the economy.

If a 40% price correction is in order, we’re either going to have a large, quick drop or flat prices for a decade while inflation erodes the value. I’m hoping for the former.

I think those who bought houses last year for second homes and investment purposes need to open their Finance 101 book, which shows them when to take a loss and move on. Maybe someone should create a “Sell vs. Hold” calculator, just like the “Rent vs. Buy” ones that are out there?

Comment by Waiting_for_Road_Kill_in_PHX
2006-06-02 10:45:57

peterbob - you bring up something that many of us I am sure have wondered - how fast will the drop will happen? I too, as probably many do, prefer a larger and faster drop so we can all get on with our lives. Looking at past corrections and bursts, it seemed like it tended to be a longer and slower drop in prices through a comibination of actual price drops and inflation erosion. But in some ways the past isn’t always an indicator of future events especially with this time around. This time we had such excess low and loose lending standards and therefore so much speculation by amateurs. So we might be hitting some unprecendented times with these two factors. Does that mean the correction will be faster? Or will it be larger in the beginning and then slow, flat or continually slowly declining for years afterwards as these ARM resets continue to hit the market and force more and more people to sell for years to come?

What does the crystal ball tell us?

Comment by Waiting_for_Road_Kill_in_PHX
2006-06-02 10:47:33

how fast the drop will happen? sorry

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Waiting in SD
2006-06-02 11:19:36

We knew what you meant. Unfortunatley no one here has a crystal ball. I think everyone here just tries to make their best educated guess. It also depends on the area, every area has many different variables. Some interesting variables are how people in the Real Estate, construction, finance, title, escrow industry will fair after the market slows down. Those people losing their jobs could get the ball rolling down hill pretty quick. As far as a guess though, yours is as good as mine, or anyone elses on this blog.

 
Comment by huggybear
2006-06-02 12:10:14

Time will tell that’s for sure but most other RE bubbles seemed less speculative due to more prudent lending standards and were triggered by other external events in the economy.

This time housing IS the economy so it seems like a self-licking ice cream cone. And just look at any trend chart from about ‘97 - ‘05 the peak looks like Mt. Everest. It seems like the slope down should be just as, if not steeper, than the slope up. (I hope)

 
Comment by Waiting_for_Road_Kill_in_PHX
2006-06-02 15:51:28

huggybear -

so perhaps a severe recession or even worse (gulp) since RE this time around is so out of whack and so tied into the economy overall?

 
 
Comment by david cee
2006-06-03 04:20:16

The 1 year chart of Pulte Homes (PHM) tells me Wall Street expects a fast and major drop. The charts of all the major home builders are down 40% from their 52 week highs. Sounds like house price declines of 40% are in the very near future

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by destinsm
2006-06-02 10:15:14

OT…

bond yield curve starting to get interesting again…

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

 
Comment by shaking my head
2006-06-02 10:15:33

Pearl Kamer said…. ‘Buyers have the mistaken notion that next week there’s going to be a 20 percent reduction in prices. That’s not going to happen.’”

Will Pearl Kamer advise her family to BUY now?. I guess not. Does she believe that America is full of brainless, un-educated, bunch of followers who cannot thinkfor themselves?. Yes, no doubt that’s what she thinks.

Comment by catspit1
2006-06-02 10:45:52

well we DID elect W, so…

Comment by Diggs
2006-06-02 11:33:57

Half the people are, in fact, of less than average intelligence. ..Or in that case, just slightly more than half :)

 
Comment by huggybear
2006-06-02 12:12:35

…or maybe we didn’t?

 
 
Comment by david cee
2006-06-03 04:22:33

American Idol the #1 rated TV show in America, and you ask if American’s are brainless?

 
 
Comment by Former Underwriter
2006-06-02 10:18:01

The public news that the market is declining is only about a month old. It hasn’t set in to the minds of the majority of the public (most people don’t bother to read). Give it a another 5 months and just wait to see the cocky buyers make $400,000 offers on $700,000 asking prices.
Unless you absolutely need a place right now, I’d wait several months to see the mud really slide downhill before bothering to shop.

Comment by Mo Money
2006-06-02 10:53:21

Certainly if they are a CNBC bubblevison viewer they are getting the story even if it shrugged off by some “expert”

 
 
Comment by Mike_in_Fl
2006-06-02 10:42:44

speaking of high end/expensive areas not seeing a lot of activity/selling, CNBC has been running updates today about Silicon Valley and how the super-rich can’t move properties. Cited Oracle’s Larry Ellison (SP?) and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak (SP?). The latter is asking $12 million, if memory serves, for a house that comes complete with a cave with an entertainment center in it. How about I give you $200,000 and we’ll call it a deal? Ha-Ha. Even I, an ardent housing bear, know that will never happen.

Comment by seattle price drop
2006-06-03 19:43:03

I saw that CNBC blurb on Steve Wozniak’s 12 million $ mansion.

You left out the best part Mike- it’s 12 mil, DOWN from 24 million originally.

Pretty hefty price cut.

 
 
Comment by Moopheus
2006-06-02 10:50:29

“You have people who think they should sell at last year’s prices,” said Eileen Richter, associate broker at the Park Slope office of Brown Harris Stevens.

Actually, it seems more like they want last year’s prices, plus 20%. The wife and I walk by this office every weekend, and the prices listed in the window are still sky-high, nearly Manhattan-level per sq. ft.. Some apartments are getting shown as open houses every week, which is probably a new thing.

Comment by LowTenant
2006-06-02 13:27:30

Park Slope is comically overpriced. A couple of close friends recently sold a brownstone there for $2.8 million (they paid $450k for it in 1993). They are laughing all the way to the bank, and the fools who bought the place now get to enjoy 50 minutes on a packed subway into midtown every day.

 
Comment by LowTenant
2006-06-02 13:27:33

Park Slope is comically overpriced. A couple of close friends recently sold a brownstone there for $2.8 million (they paid $450k for it in 1993). They are laughing all the way to the bank, and the fools who bought the place now get to enjoy 50 minutes on a packed subway into midtown every day.

Comment by Moopheus
2006-06-02 19:44:41

Yeah, and now rents are going up too. So the next time our lease is up, we’re planning to get out of Dodge. Our crappy little apt. was marginally tolerable when it was realtively cheap and I couldn’t afford anything else, but now it’s really not worth it.

 
 
 
Comment by rent2home
2006-06-02 10:51:51

Bond yields are decreasing….

People are buying bonds …..they exepect FED will NOT raise rate much further based on weak job reports.

Inflation is high..what will the FED really do. Can the real experts share their thoughts PLEASE.

Regarding infaltion, it is everywhere and much higher than we see on media.

Sign of Inflation: Today when I went to my son’s school (So.Cal) to pay in advance for his Cafeteria lunch ticket, the Lady said price is increasing and later on I have to pay the difference.

The school authority have not decided on the price yet. Now a child pays $2.25 for lunch and she was saying new price will be close to $3.00.

The dry cleaner has increased his price for a shirt, by $0.50 over last seven month. (.25+.25)

In my office vending machine, the operator has increased his price of item from 0.80 to $1.10. Why 1.10 and not 1.00 , he must be hurting…..( he stuck a Letter explaining he can not absorb any more , esp the Gas price price)

Just wanted to know what does this do to House price, when wages are not increasing…

Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 11:18:52

I believe rates will continue to rise slowly until a true crisis hits — major bank defaults, stock market crash, something like that. As long as nothing big happens they can keep saying there is no problem. Then they will plummet rates down in order to solve the sudden “crisis”. Too late for common man, just in time to save the rich.

Invest accordingly.

 
Comment by winjr
2006-06-02 11:44:00

Heck, rent2home, no sense in listening to experts — they have no better insight than anybody on this board. Nobody knows for sure. But let’s consider this — if the Fed raises rates, longer term rates are likely to follow suit. If the Fed pauses, longer term rates are STILL likely to rise, as the bond markets thumb their nose at Bernanke’s thesis that inflation is “under control”. Either way, borrowers are headed for more pain, as is the economy in general. IMHO.

Comment by Getstucco
2006-06-02 12:05:43

I second this, with some reservations due to my uncertainty about the Fed’s willingness and ability to intervene at the long end of the yield curve. The traditional view was that the Fed controlled the short end of the curve, and the bond market controlled the long end, but that gets muddled in light of comments by some posters (esp. Mr D) that Bernanke has expressed a willingness to increase the range of yields over which the Fed would intervene, as necessary (with a resulting intentional distortion of the price signal from the bond market).

That said, the key misconception which is promulgated by the mainstream press is that the Fed somehow strictly controls interest rates, and especially that long term rates move up and down in lockstep with short term rates (which the Fed explicitly targets through its Open Market Operations, as decided by consensus at their Federal Open Market Committee meetings held every six weeks).

Due to the behavioral responses by consumers (borrowers) and investors (esp. bond market participants), the Fed’s job is more akin to walking on a swaying tightrope than to forcing interest rates to move in lockstep with its adjustments. Low short term rates (like the ones around 2003, for instance) portend future inflation, as they are achieved by pumping liquidity into the system (more money results in a lower price, which is the interest rate); hence targeting too low of a short term interest rate could potentially spook the bond market, resulting in sharply higher long-term rates and a steepening of the yield curve. Conversely, moving short-term rates too high tends to choke off economic activity, as it becomes more expensive to borrow the money to buy stuff (houses, cars, plants, equipment, etc), and long term bond yields drop in anticipation of a future slowdown in the economy, at which point interest rates inevitably fall, and the price of a guaranteed income stream (like that provided by treasury bonds) increases. To make matters more confusing, the spillover of Fed Funds interest rate changes into the real economy is estimated to be strongest at a lag of about eighteen months, meaning that today’s rate increases will not show their full effect until December 2007. So at least officially, the Fed’s control of short term interest rates has the opposite effect on long-term rates, and the equilibrium short-term interest rate is an unstable and unpredictable target. I guess you can see why they almost always end up creating a recession when they try to just cool down inflationary pressures a bit.

Comment by rent2home
2006-06-02 12:42:15

GS: That was pretty informative!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by cereal
2006-06-02 13:52:31

1.10 for cookies in the vending machine???

you’ve crossed a line, pilgrim

 
 
Comment by Hubrispie
2006-06-02 11:02:15

Hmm…. Prices went up at like 20% plus per year so they could easily decline at the same rate or faster. Usually fear causes a faster fall than greed causes a run-up. Buyers don’t have to worry about the lack of a precipitous decline, they will just wait and wait and the substantial decline will occur in the end.

 
Comment by Brad
2006-06-02 11:17:10

‘Buyers have the mistaken notion that next week there’s going to be a 20 percent reduction in prices. That’s not going to happen.’”
———————————————————————-
no, but 20% reduction for next year is “in the bag.”

Comment by winjr
2006-06-02 11:46:23

“no, but 20% reduction for next year is “in the bag.” ”

LOL!!!! Oh, how I would love to see that thrown up in his face!

Comment by Housegeek
2006-06-03 03:14:38

Compare this with last year’s quotes of how the huge appreciation will never end. What is startling to me is how fast inventory has exploded over the area. I never expected to see the market turn as early as it did.

 
 
 
Comment by Wes Chester
2006-06-02 11:33:08

“Locally, home values are still increasing, albeit not as quickly as before. In April, the median closing price in Suffolk was $385,000, up 4.3 percent from a year earlier. Nassau registered a 4.2 percent gain, climbing from $451,000 to $470,000, according the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island”.

Those who are buying now at higher prices are last fools. It’s like the idiots who are so pleased when they come to the beach and find nobody else in the water not realizing everyone got out because of lightning.

I’m amazed that Long Island has had the run it did. It’s an incredibly congested place fraught with many problems.

Rentals in the Hamptons are up as people are fearful of buying and prices have already fallen 5% over last year and that is only the beginning of a what could be a very large crash out there.

Comment by Getstucco
2006-06-02 11:49:52

“Those who are buying now at higher prices are last fools. It’s like the idiots who are so pleased when they come to the beach and find nobody else in the water not realizing everyone got out because of lightning.”

The water was sucked out to sea in the trough of the incoming tsunami, and only those who do not realize they are about to drown are standing there wondering what kind of trick God just played on them…

 
 
Comment by Getstucco
2006-06-02 11:42:45

Gee whiz, I guess the NYC cabdrivers and hairdressers will all have to find some other sideline besides flipping million-dollar condos.

Comment by Neil
2006-06-02 13:12:36

What’s sad is that this comment is accurate. I’m seeing similar folk out here making big investments too.

I might want to walk out of the saloon the day they realize their dreams are depreciating…(or get a funky haircut)

Neil

 
 
Comment by buddhaman
2006-06-02 11:59:57

My broker had me list my apartment in January at 8% higher than what we spoke about in December, just because it was a new year. We had some nibbles, but it eventually sold for the price we discussed last year, after 5 months on the market and more open houses than I want to talk about. Anyway - I am just happy to get out with my profits (not flipper profits, i bought years ago and have lived in the apartment whole time). I want to move to Tampa area so will have the benefit of catching the wave downhill there and lowballing an investor there. My sister-in-law was in a nice community there last weekend where she counted 50 for sale signs. I will try to get the 2500 sq. foot new house I really want at $100/sq. foot or so rather than the $150-$200 per that became asking price over the last year.

 
Comment by tweedle-dee (not dumb...)
2006-06-02 12:16:51

What I like is that all the recent articles are focusing on one thing: markdowns. If you want to sell your house, you have to drop the price.

They are also focussing on people that NEED to sell.

The bubble is really starting to come apart now.

 
Comment by Wes Chester
2006-06-03 01:54:44

Only six weeks to winter. Come July 15, buyers realize that they’ve missed the chance to get into a house before school starts.

It’s going to be a very long winter for sellers who have to sell but squandered this spring’s selling opportunity because of greed.

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post