Bits Bucket for September 1, 2013
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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WELCOME TO ‘THE JUNGLE’: The Largest Homeless Camp In Mainland USA Is Right In The Heart Of Silicon Valley
by WankerBait Posted August 31, 2013 (14 hours ago)
The Jungle is the largest of many Silicon Valley homeless encampments, and the 65 acres bordering Coyote Creek in San Jose can be home to up to 175 people at a time.
It is the largest homeless encampment in the continental United States.
From kids to convicts to moms and dads and the mentally ill, The
Jungle is a desperate mix of people out of whatever options they might have once had.
When Business Insider visited The Jungle over the course of a week in mid-July the city was getting ready to clear the homeless out again after they had just settled back in from a
previous eviction.
It’s a back-and-forth with no easy answers as Silicon Valley’s cost
of living increases, but the jobs and affordable housing needed to keep its poorest residents inside and off the streets remains unseen.
Step into the largest homeless camp in the United States »+2 Read More: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-jungle-largest-...
Opinions
wtxwoman 9 hours ago
175 people, that’s all? That don’t sound bad at all, considering the condition 75% of the world’s people are in. I’ll bet none of them go hungry.
sjalan 13 hours ago
This guy hasn’t visited some of the National Parks lately. There are several which have camps which have well over 350 people in each. In NE Arizona there are several such camps all summer long. During the winter there is an area set aside for extended stays of homeless persons of all ages as well.
With over 3 million CHILDREN under 18 HOMELESS in just the USA and on their own this is a far more important issue than this “business insider dot com” attempt to be a news source on homelessness.
https://www.sodahead.com/united-states/welcome-to-the-jungle-the-largest-homeless-camp-in-mainland-usa-is-right-in-the-heart-of-silicon/question-3901575/ -
From kids to convicts to moms and dads and the mentally ill, The
Jungle is a desperate mix of people out of whatever options they might have once had.
…
With over 3 million CHILDREN under 18 HOMELESS in just the USA
So why aren’t these people signing up for section 8 vouchers? Don’t tell me they’re rationed or something.
In Colorado
You got any green dots in your Nabe?
green
There once was a nice black couple down the street. After a few years they sold their place an moved on. Otherwise the nabe is lilly white, with a few Asians and middle class Hispanics, including yours truly, though my neighbors don’t have a clue.
Your neighbors don’t have a clue about what?
That I am Hispanic
You are the first Hispanic dude (and I know lots of Hispanic dudes) that uses a word like nabe.
In Colorado, aren’t people of Spanish descent also regarded “hispanic?” I guess I’m part germanic too. Wait, that makes me a minority if less than 50% of Americans are of German descent, doesn’t it?
It’s hip to consider yourself a minority, I hear….
It’s hip to consider yourself a minority, I hear….
Sorry homie, you have to be a “minority at risk.”
“Wait, that makes me a minority if less than 50% of Americans are of German descent, doesn’t it?”
Bad choice of minority class, dude. Your ancestors likely had nothing to do with the slavery era, yet you are lumped in with the guilty by virtue of your lilly white skin. There is a good chance your ancestors were forced to very quickly learn English or else face extreme censure or worse during WWI and WWII (happened to my ancestors, at least). And don’t expect any race-based special privileges for you and yours, as your skin color makes you indistinguishable from the undeserving majority race.
of German descent
You’re lucky we let you guys in. I assume you’re offering the same generosity to our more recent Mexican immigrants?
“though my neighbors don’t have a clue.”
For fun, you should pepper your conversations with them with some light anti-Hispanic rhetoric and see where it leads.
I’m Irish Catholic, I think I’m supposed to be mad at the British for something.
In Colorado, aren’t people of Spanish descent also regarded “hispanic?”
I believe that is the definition. 90+% of Mexicans are of Spanish descent.
You are the first Hispanic dude (and I know lots of Hispanic dudes) that uses a word like nabe.
Are you implying I should say “barrio”?
I knew several people with skin the same color of me who are so into having a hispanic lineage. Fine. But in one case there are occasional accents thrown in when one of them talks to a “darker-skinned” hispanic but not when he talks with other white skins. It baffles me.
It baffles me.
When in Rome, do as the Romans do.
I knew several people with skin the same color of me who are so into having a hispanic lineage. Fine. But in one case there are occasional accents thrown in when one of them talks to a “darker-skinned” hispanic but not when he talks with other white skins. It baffles me.
That’s because Hispanic is not a homogenous category. Not by a long shot.
“I assume you’re offering the same generosity to our more recent Mexican immigrants?”
Absolutely — especially those who sneak into the country illegally, as they are more deserving than those who legally immigrate into the U.S.
Section 8 vouchers? Not sure but I would guess those who ever committed a felony cannot be eligible for Section 8. Many homeless are ex cons.
The U.S. has the biggest rate of incarcerations in the world. Much of these are for victimless crimes such as drug possession, prostitution, or Johns. To continue to have laws against victimless crimes is as bad as to continue to have the U.S. the self-appointed world cop.
As long as taxpayer money is continued to be spent ($tens of billions) on the war against drugs and to meddle in other countries, it makes no sense for people to expect government has any ability to solve problems. More often than not, government creates a problem first, then steals from the taxpayer to provide funds to fix the very same problems it creates.
Beyond disillusioned a long time ago, I became an anarcho capitalist.
The U.S. has the biggest rate of incarcerations in the world. Much of these are for victimless crimes such as drug possession, prostitution, or Johns. To continue to have laws against victimless crimes is as bad as to continue to have the U.S. the self-appointed world cop.
Wow! I actually agree with you!
Well we are a police state. Most Americans don’t seem to care about it. I do. I think about it a lot. And it worries me. Most of us are like frogs in a kettle. The heat is gradually turned up so that most of us won’t jump out.
My only weapon against it is to just not sanction it. I will stay below radar however. I do not worship politicians. I have no respect at all for 99.9% of them. The election system is part of the problem and we continue to sink into mobocracy. Yes we have a representative form of government. Congress absolutely represents Americans - consumers heavily in debt, well government heavily in debt. And living on the treadmill puts people into a mindset of not caring who they pull the lever for unless that person is admired by their peers.
Well we are a police state. Most Americans don’t seem to care about it. I do. I think about it a lot. And it worries me. Most of us are like frogs in a kettle. The heat is gradually turned up so that most of us won’t jump out.
Again, I agree with you.
“Again, I agree with you.”
Me too.
Bill’s modus operandi is, The Sovereign Individual.
exactly, rms!
“175 people, that’s all?”
That was my thought as well. I’m guessing at least that number sleep on the streets of downtown San Diego on any given night. And then imagine Berkeley, San Francisco or LA. Their homeless numbers have to exceed 175 for sure!
Homeless Population in Los Angeles County Increases by 16 Percent
A study reveals the number of homeless single adults and children has increased since 2011.
By Ron Rokhy | Saturday, Jun 29, 2013 | Updated 12:40 PM PDT
Volunteers prepare to embark on the 2013 Greater Los Angeles Homeless Count, which is conducted by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority.
The homeless population of Los Angeles County has gone up 16 percent since 2011, according to a report released Friday.
The report, released every other year by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, showed a sharp increase in youth homelessness, while there was a decrease in the number of homeless veterans and families.
The changes come amid decreased federal funding for local programs that help the homeless and increased efforts in Washington to target veteran homelessness across the country.
LAHSA conducted its most recent homeless count, in which volunteers fan out over the county for two nights, in January. The report is based on that count.
The count found 58,423 homeless men, women and children, compared to 50,214 two years ago. The number of homeless single adults increased by 29 percent, while unaccompanied youth 18 and under went up a staggering 122 percent.
“Over the past year, we’ve seen a significant reduction in federal resources available to fight homelessness,” said Michael Arnold, Executive Director of LAHSA in a press release. “The increase we see today in our homeless population demonstrates the direct relationship between resources to address the problem and our ability to have an impact.”
…
“So why aren’t these people signing up for section 8 vouchers?”
“175 people, that’s all?”
Is that all that couldn’t get section 8 vouchers?
Those are the ones that live in that camp.
And that probably number doesn’t include all the couch surfers.
But like I pointed out the other day, even in prosperous, lilly white Denver there is a lottery just to be able to apply for Section 8.
And I know someone who tried to apply for it in SoCal. The waiting lists were 5 years long in the various counties, and in Orange County the list was CLOSED, as in you couldn’t apply at all.
One of my problems with govt. programs. There are lots of people who get it and don’t need it and lot’s of people who need it and don’t get it. In fact, the ones who do need it and get it would do a lot better if the fraud was out of it all the way around.
Now having said that, you take the kids out of these camps and I am pretty sure you are going to have your fair share of Mad Dog 20/20 connoisseurs in the crowd.
BumWine.com - MD 20/20
MD 20/20
18% or 13% alc. by vol.
As majestic as the cascading waters of a drain pipe, MD 20/20 is bottled by the 20/20 wine company in Westfield, New York. This is a good place to start for the street wine rookie, but beware; this dog has a bite to back up its bark. MD Stands for Mogen David, and is affectionately called “Mad Dog 20/20″. You’ll find this beverage as often in a bum’s nest as in the rock quarry where the high school kids sneak off to drink. This beverage is likely the most consumed by non-bums, but that doesn’t stop any bums from drinking it! Our research indicates that MD 20/20 is the best of the bum wines at making you feel warm inside. Some test subjects report a slight numbing agent in MD 20/20, similar to the banana paste that the dentist puts in your mouth before injecting it with novocain. Anyone that can afford a dentist should steer clear of this disaster. Avaliable in various nauseating tropical flavors that coat your whole system like bathtub scum, but only the full “Red Grape Wine” flavor packs the 18% whallop.
Liquor stores are starting to be infiltrated by a 13% variety of MD 20/20 Red Grape. There is also a new “Blue Raspberry” flavor with “BLING BLING”. Even the lowest functioning of bums will know not to get swindled out of 5%.
http://www.bumwine.com/md2020.html - 8k - Cached - Similar pages
Brings to mind Fred Sanford speaking affectionately of his ripple.
Seems the homeless problem in LA dwarfs that in San Jose:
Situations in specific U.S. cities
Los Angeles
The Los Angeles region is thought to have the largest concentration of homeless persons in the country and is considered the homelessness capital of the USA, together with San Francisco. In its biennial census of 2011, the County counted more than 51,000 homeless persons living in the county at any given night. One hundred thousands persons are expected to be homeless at least one night during the year. A 50-block area in downtown Los Angeles called Skid Row (4,316) has a homeless population nearly as large as the homeless population of San Francisco (6,455). Hollywood and the city of Santa Monica also suffer from visible homelessness. Los Angeles, of course, has approximately 3.6 times the population of San Francisco. Proportionately Los Angeles has more homeless than San Francisco.
In 2009, the author Geoffrey Neil wrote a novel, Dire Means, whose underlying premise was about the homeless situation in Santa Monica, California.
San Francisco
The city of San Francisco, California, due to its mild climate and its social programs that have provided cash payments for homeless individuals, is often considered the homelessness capital of the United States, together with Los Angeles. The city’s homeless population has been estimated at 7,000–10,000 people, of which approximately 3,000–5,000 refuse shelter. The city spends $200 million a year on homelessness related programs. On May 3, 2004, San Francisco officially began an attempt to scale back the scope of its homelessness problem by changing its strategy from cash payments to the “Care Not Cash” plan. At the same time, grassroots organizations within the Bay Area such as the Suitcase Clinic work to provide referrals for housing and employment to the homeless population. In 2010, a city ordinance was passed to disallow sitting and lying down on public sidewalks for most of the day, from 7 am until 11 pm.
…
Try this URL:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-jungle-largest-homeless-camp-in-us-2013-8?op=1
I used to work very near this encampment. It’s primarily out of view.
I find it hard to believe that it’s the largest in the US.
Sad state of affairs.
I find it hard to believe that it’s the largest in the US.
So do I. I seem to recall that there are bigger ones along the Platte River in Denver, or at least there used to be.
What’s wrong with those people? Don’t they know they can get Escalades and free phones and houses and eat lobster and steak without working?
Man they are dumb!
/sarcasm
“What’s wrong with those people? Don’t they know they can get Escalades and free phones and houses and eat lobster and steak without working?”
You saw it too! Well here’s the vid for those who didn’t.
Food Stamp Nation: Surfer Dude Buys Sushi, Lobster, Avoids Work
http://www.ijreview.com/2013/08/72344-obamas-food-stamp-program-ca-surfer-buys-sushi-lobster-avoids-work/ - 75k -
Cool, I ‘d rather my tax dollars go to support this guy than some 1%er. I guarantee this guy will cost less. And he might be a great rock star some day.
I’ve always thought that Britain’s rather lenient dole system was one of the main reasons they’ve produced so many great rock and roll bands over the years.
Hey dude how you been?
Pretty good. And you?
Workin’ with my tools on a lot, but not bad thanks. I can tell ya, there is a reason there are no 53 year olds in the NFL. You just don’t feel the same as you did in your 20s and 30s after a long day. The production is not what it used to be either.
You ready to drywall another bubble? It’s all good for business, right?
The guys who made out in the bubble years were the project guys who did the tract houses, in business it never was my niche. Although the spray guys did really well around here scraping the popcorn ceilings on all those 70s and early 80s houses and respraying them with knock-down for the flippers.
Hey, at least this guy is honest. Does anyone here think he could live and surf on the California coast if he attended college and got a full-time job?
I remember how in the 1970s I wanted to be a ski bum, maybe do odd jobs around ski resorts in exchange for lift tickets. Had no welfare in mind. Just wanted to work up to ski instructor and have all kinds of ski bunny chicks worshipping me. The other thing I wanted was a Porsche 911.
How is the stock market outlook for the next few months?
Stock market falls in quiet end to tough August; investors face turbulent September
By Associated Press, Published: August 30
NEW YORK — August was tough on the stock market. Now, investors face an even scarier September.
Disappointing news on consumer spending helped pull stocks lower Friday in a quiet end to the market’s worst month in more than a year.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed August with a loss of 3.1 percent while the Dow Jones industrial average lost 4.4 percent. Both had their biggest one-month drop since May 2012.
The month began on a high note. On Aug. 2, news that unemployment fell to its lowest level in more than four years helped lift the S&P 500 index to a record high of 1,709.67. Then things quickly changed.
Bond yields jumped, sending mortgage rates up, as investors began speculating that the Federal Reserve would withdraw some of its support for the economy as early as September.
An array of questions weighed on investors’ minds, said Lawrence Creatura, a money manager at Federated Investors.
The latest wild card is Syria. The possibility that the U.S. could strike Bashar al-Assad’s regime propelled oil prices to a two-year high earlier in the week.
“The Syria situation is a strong dose of uncertainty,” Creatura said. “And investors hate uncertainty.”
…
“The Syria situation is a strong dose of uncertainty,” Creatura said. “And investors hate uncertainty.”
Maybe Wall street should decide the Middle East strategy for the pentagon since they have all of the smartest guys who know what’s best for capitalism, white bread and the American way.
the same as its been for the past 5 years? Rigged by POMO dollars and HFT’s ?
Steve Schaefer, Forbes Staff
If you can put the word market after it, I cover it.
8/30/2013 @ 4:45PM |2,521 views
Stock Market Turns Page To September: Focus On Syria, Jobs And Bernanke
Stocks turn the page from August, Bernanke still looms over all. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
There has not been much to celebrate in the stock market of late, but the casual observer might be surprised by the fact that even after a rocky August the major indexes are still in just a modest correction.
The S&P 500 is down 4.5% from its August 2 peak of 1,709.67, and a bit more than 3% for the month. While that marks the worst for U.S. stocks in more than a year – since May 2012 in fact – it was hardly a decisive victory for the bears.
Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says the slow grind from Memorial Day to Labor Day “did its job.”
Despite issues like a potential military action in Syria, looming Fed action and an expected fight over the debt ceiling, the market “mostly held its own,” says Silverblatt, and the decline was not as bad as it may have felt to those watching tick by tick. The S&P 500 closed at 1,633 Friday, down 1% since Memorial Day, but up days actually outnumbered down ones over that span.
…
Markets Close Lower as Investors Wait for Decision About Syria
By REUTERS
Published: August 30, 2013
American stocks fell in a thinly traded session on Friday as investors avoided making large bets before a long weekend with the situation about Syria still uncertain.
Afternoon trading was volatile, with indexes swinging between break-even levels and solid losses as Secretary of State John Kerry said in televised remarks that Syria’s government used poison gas against civilians and made the case for a limited military response.
“People are uneasy not knowing what’s going on,” said John Carey, portfolio manager at Pioneer Investment Management in Boston. “With that uncertainty and going into the Labor Day holiday, we’re seeing people step back.”
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 30.64 points, or 0.21 percent, at 14,810.31. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index fell 5.20 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,632.97. The Nasdaq composite index was down 30.44 points, or 0.84 percent, at 3,589.87.
Trading was light ahead of the market holiday on Monday for Labor Day. About 3.99 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.31 billion shares.
“I tend to view the weakness as a buying opportunity, barring some global crisis,” said Mr. Carey, who helps oversee about $200 billion in assets. “Syria isn’t the crisis in and of itself, but if we do take military action, there could be repercussions.”
…
Same as always; Suck ‘em in with a price rise, shake ‘em out by causing a sudden drop.
IMHO this suck-’em-in-shake-’em-out business HAS NEVER BEEN EASIER to conduct than it is today because people have never had as easy an access to current prices as have today.
Fire up a laptop or an IPAD and - presto! - there, right before you, is displayed the current price of any stock you care to look at. And the price of the stock that you would care the most to look at is the stock you just bought. And if the price of this stock that you just bought goes up then you are happy because this price rise means you are RIGHT (and a financial genius!) and because you are right you want to become more right (and more of a genius) by buying more stock.
But if the price goes down? If the price goes down then that means you are WRONG and it pains you to be wrong, especially when being wrong causes you to lose money. So the only way to relieve yourself of this pain is to sell the stock - to sell the stock that you just bought.
In a logical world a price drop would induce more buying because Econ 101 says it will. But in an emotional world the rules of Econ 101 do not apply; In an emotional world a price drop will cause more selling because a price drop in the emotional world of stocks means “somebody must know something”.
And this is true, somebody indeed does know something: What they know that if they raise prices then they can suck in buyers and if they drop prices then they can turn right around and shake them out. All they need for this minipulation is to somehow find a way to present current prices to the buyers. Enter the laptop and the IPAD and other such things.
The rules of Econ 101 work in a logical world because people who operate in this logical world already know the value of whatever it is that they are buying. If people value tomotos at sixty-cents a pound and you offer them tomatos at thirty-cents a pound you will end up selling a lot of tomatos. Raise the price of the same pound of tomatos to a dollar-fifty and sales volume will drop off.
But in the world of stocks people rarely feel they know the value of the stocks they are interested in - they may do the math and the due dil and other such required homework but STILL they are not convinced of the value of the stock they are interested in - there are certain “unknowns” that tend to bother them. So - even though they may know better - they tend to rely on price to determine value. In their minds if the price goes up then the value also goes up, and vice-versa. In their minds - deep within their minds - Price equals Value.
And this, this Price equals Value concept, is the edge the pros have over the average investor. If these guys can manipulate the price then they can manipulate the behavior of the average investor. And this is what they do.
well said buddy.
U have to remember stocks are pieces of paper with some illusion that you actually have ownership of the company.
The management and boards of these companies will run common shareholders into the ground and then say they never saw it coming as the company enters bankruptcy.
Looks at sears and pennys for example. sucking every last dollar out of shareholders before then go bankrupt.
The management and boards of these companies will run common shareholders into the ground and then say they never saw it coming as the company enters bankruptcy.
THAT is what is called “enhancing shareholder value”. The value of the shareholders lies in what the corporate insiders can extract from them before the corp goes belly up. Silly people keep saying the corp insiders are dedicated to benefiting the shareholders.
thats sounds about right my friend.
“U have to remember stocks are pieces of paper…”
That’s so 20th Century! Nowadays your stock shares are electronic blips inside some computer’s data bank.
Exactly Combo.
It’s all rigged and gamed.
Doesn’t mean you can’t make money, but never forget you are swimming with sharks.
“Suck ‘em in with a price rise, shake ‘em out by causing a sudden drop”
Yep. If you buy a house now or bought one in the lat 14 years, you were set up like a bowling pin.
Here comes the ball!
This “suck them in and shake them out” has been very well for buying in the dips since January 2000. Let’s see. Weekly buying in my IRA and monthly in my index funds in the months around the dips of 2003 and 2009 meant I bought a lot more shares for bargain prices. While the heights at January 2000, then in 2007, and now mean I buy fewer shares at expensive prices.
My best gain in net worth was $265,000 in 2012. I haven’t kept track of percentage gain, but there were few years when my net worth went down relative to previous year. That had to be 2001. Undoubtedly 2009 compared to 2008.
Those who cannot stand any loss of net worth in the road to personal financial freedom will also miss the big wins. And it’s stocks in the long run, not real estate, not gold, certainly not bonds, certainly not T-bills, that will get you fastest to financial freedom.
what are you losses? come clean.
My losses were in the years 2001 to 2003 on individual stocks. Lost 50% on them: Rational, which was bought by IBM, Cisco, JDS Uniphase. Net worth went from $400,000 to $250,000 by the year 2002. Slow loss but sure loss on Pfizer over several years. All my mutual funds have been in the black because of dollar cost averaging.
I heard that U.S. Pharmaceutical companies outsourced their R&D. Lots of chemists got out of work over the last few years. Wasn’t heavy into drug companies but I am disappointed that a lot of bright American researchers lost their jobs to outsourcing.
Losses on housing- $0
Correct Bill?
Losses on housing in the mid-90s: $20,000 right off the bat, plus I was paying double in all the monthly costs compared to my rent before signing the purchase agreement. $475 per month for 6 years. Plus did some maintenance - some backyard landscape, and bought parts a few times to fix my master cooler (new water pumps, probably about 3 of ‘em, new copper tubing…), plus put in my own drip irrigation and wired it up for timer. Lots of PVC pipes and redoing them…
Let’s say $500 per month extra payments and headaches for 6 years and that is $36,000 extra I threw out. Total $56,000. Wow. This is the first time I really did the math.
Price of the house I signed for: $96,000 and change. Six years later the average price was $80,000 on this strip of six houses. Base Realignment and Closure devalued them.
I leaarned.
Compared to the losses of the suckers who bought 1998-current?
Next to nothing.
You can be mostly in fiat money. I will remain mostly in stocks. Stocks are a way to provide capital for businesses to grow. I have far more trust in capitalism than the people running the printing press.
For every thing there is a season.
Are you in stocks, or are you in equities?
In other words, are you investing in individual stocks or in index funds, mutual funds and ETFs?
At this stage in my journey, I’ve come to recognize that I’m over matched when it comes to investing in individual stocks (I don’t have the time, requisite skill, or inclination to monitor an individual stock to the extent that a full time professional does).
For me, broad based index funds, ETFs, and low cost mutual funds are the only way to go. Others will have a different approach and opinion, and that’s what makes a market.
For me it’s mostly broad-based index funds. Like you, I have very little time to research a company either. I’m okay with sector investing. You don’t need research to do well in sectors. You just observe that everything in our lives operates in cycles. Our individual moods, our health, our energy levels, the philosophy of politicians occupying Washington (collectivism with the collectivist rhetoric is the rage now and 1976. Collectivism with the individualist rhetoric was the rage in 1980 and 2000)…and finally markets.
At the same time, fundamentals affect sector investing. The fundamentals these days: governments are heavily into Keynesianism and fiat money. Developed western nations are staying with FDR-style “solutions” to fix problems caused by big government in the first place. Austerity is being rejected by the Europeans, but not as much as by the Americans. The printing press is going to keep going in the USA until we get hyperinflation.
We have 25 million shadow inventory houses, many of which have been rotting and their values are dropping faster than an intern’s panties in the oval office of the 1990s. The MSM pronounces a “housing recovery” in the face of this huge shadow inventory. Maybe the Fed realizes this baloney will implode again and knows any rate increases will add more nonsense to this economic trap waiting for people to throw themselves into.
So from what I see, the economic fundamentals favor continued credit expansion in the U.S. and Europe and Japan, and great deals in emerging markets and precious metals. Emerging markets probably have not bottomed. Precious metals mining funds probably have bottomed.
While I still dollar cost average the same amounts as usual in several Vanguard index funds (corporate bond, S&P 500, small company growth index, and VTCLX, I have not qualified yet tor my new company 401k, so I have been investing what I normally would in my 401k but in my non-tax deferred Emerging Market fund. I’m more bullish on European stocks than American stocks, so I am investing $1,000 to $2,000 per month in VEMAX and DODFX until January when I start up my 401k.
“For me it’s mostly broad-based index funds. Like you, I have very little time to research a company either.”
Unless you do it full time, like Munger or Buffett, there seems to be little upside to wasting your precious free time researching individual companies. Most theoretical and statistical evidence I have seen suggests the dollar cost averaging into index funds does just as well if not better than picking individual stocks, anyway.
“Stocks are a way to provide capital for businesses to grow.”
People still believe this?!
The only growth I’ve seen stocks create are the BODs bank accounts.
You haven’t seen too long then. My former company used capital to buy other companies. Around 2007 it was a $50 million company. Now it’s a $1.6 billion company. And its latest acquisition was a very smart money maker. They were at $500 million and bought a $600 million company that greatly boosted revenue and earnings.
“But if the price goes down? If the price goes down then that means you are WRONG and it pains you to be wrong, especially when being wrong causes you to lose money. So the only way to relieve yourself of this pain is to sell the stock - to sell the stock that you just bought.”
More typical responses to seeing a drop in the value of the stock you just bought:
1) Denial;
2) Blame “market forces” rather than reach the reciprocally logical conclusion that you were WRONG (and a financial dummy);
3) Note that “nobody could have seen it coming”;
4) Hold on to the stock “until prices come back” rather than cut your losses.
To the extent the market makers can influence prices, there is clearly an incentive to draw out the duration of the suck-em-in periods when prices are rising (e.g. from 2002 post-recession trough through Fall 2008, or from March 2009 through Fall 2013 or later) and minimize the duration of the shake-em-out periods (Sept 2008 through March 2009), as everyone loves to buy into a rising market and nobody wants to catch himself a falling knife.
Judging from their 2+ decade slide in stock prices, apparently the Japanese market makers are not quite as skillful in this regard as their Wall Street counterparts.
Judging from their 2+ decade slide in stock prices, apparently the Japanese market makers are not quite as skillful in this regard as their Wall Street counterparts.
Or maybe the idea of total market control is a bunch of hooey?
It certainly appears so for Japan. The jury is still out for the U.S.
“And the price of the stock that you would care the most to look at is the stock you just bought.”
Or the home you just bought!
The Plan — according to U.S. General Wesley Clark (Ret.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXS3vW47mOE
Seven countries in five years…how’d that work out for them?
Mayor of New Jersey’s Egg Harbor Township Forced to Sell Home He “Owns” to Pay Property Taxes
By Harrison August 23, 2013
This story is simply so wrong on so many levels. A 71 year old man who has lived in his home since 1974 is forced to put it up for sale because his property taxes have made his home unaffordable:
Mayor James “Sonny” McCullough has a great house to sell you: his.
“I can’t afford the taxes,” McCullough explained.
McCullough said he has been taxed out of his home by the local rates and by last year’s township-wide revaluation, which caused his property taxes to shoot up nearly 60 percent, to $31,056.
“It’s more than what I can afford,” McCullough said. “It’s kind of disappointing. I thought I would be able to live and die in my home, but it’s gotten to the point where it’s gotten up so high.”
McCullough, 71, has lived in the township’s Seaview Harbor section since 1974, when he and his wife, Georgene, moved out of Atlantic City’s Chelsea Heights neighborhood. They moved another 500 feet in 1985 when they bought land and built their current home for $360,000.
Last year’s reassessment said that home was worth slightly more than $1.1 million.
The McCulloughs are not the only people who have elected to vote with their feet. Real estate sales records show no Seaview Harbor properties traded hands in 2012.
Now? Five are on the market, for the average price of $1.3 million.
However these prices suggest the township’s new assessments are too conservative: the asking prices are about 60 percent higher than the new township assessments.
The 92-home bayfront neighborhood of Seaview Harbor was built on the road between Somers Point and Longport in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
The owners of these large, waterfront residences have long been both literally and philosophically closer to the residents of Longport, with whom they share a post office. Tax records suggest about one-third of the properties now are second homes.
Last year’s revaluation emphasized the difference between the residents of this cozy enclave and the rest of the 43,323-person township.
Before the revaluation, the average home in Egg Harbor Township was assessed at $137,285, less than half the average $307,785 Seaview Harbor property. Township residents paid $5,804 in local property taxes on average, versus $13,106 in Seaview Harbor.
This split widened when the township ratified its long-overdue revaluation on Oct. 1. The average township residential assessment immediately increased by about 50 percent. But Seaview Harbor’s values nearly doubled.
The number of million-dollar homes there increased from one to 16. McCullough said these values are too high, considering the hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage done by Hurricane Sandy.
Still, the real surprise came this month when the township mailed its property tax bills. The average Egg Harbor Township residential property tax bill increased by less than 1 percent, tax records show, while Seaview Harbor property taxes increased nearly 90 percent, to $24,192.
http://capitolcommentary.com/2013/08/23/mayor-of-new-jerseys-egg-harbor-township-forced-to-sell-home-he-owns-to-pay-property-taxes/ - 76k -
It’s a darn shame when rich people can’t afford to keep thier houses on the beach.
“It’s a darn shame when rich people can’t afford to keep thier houses on the beach.”
My Mom still lives in the same house that she and my Dad bought in 1960 for $32k. The last time I asked the property taxes were $12k a year. My Mom is not rich.
phony?
Where does your mom live?
That’s why I disagree w/ folks who say Ca Prop 13 is a handout for long term SFH owners, and it isn’t fair.
Is it Hawaii that has an elderly property tax exclusion, once you hit a certain age? I like that idea for average folks who worked all their lives. Old folks deserve a tax break.
Old Greenwich Ct. 06870
phony
Thanks. I bet the house is worth maybe $500K-$600K?. CT is pricey. Those are some pretty high taxes.
We live in So Ca and our Prop. Tax bill is $5,100- for just under $400K. Realtors use 1.333 in our area.
My Mom still lives in the same house that she and my Dad bought in 1960 for $32k. The last time I asked the property taxes were $12k a year. My Mom is not rich.
How much is that house worth now?
And would they (or you Jethro) be willing to give up the capital gains if they could pay their old tax amounts?
As long as she could live there without having to worry about not being able to afford a house that she and Dad paid off years ago, yes.
“I can’t afford the taxes,” McCullough explained.
+1 The seeds of a Proposition 13 style tax revolt.
What’s the outlook for the City of Richmond eminent domain plan?
Richmond: Mounting concerns threaten support for plan to seize underwater mortgages
By Robert Rogers
Contra Costa Times
Posted: 08/30/2013 04:51:39 PM PDT
RICHMOND — With legal and financial challenges mounting , momentum is building to scuttle the city’s radical plan to use eminent domain to seize underwater mortgages and refinance them at amounts homeowners can afford.
New concerns have arisen in recent days that Richmond may not be able to refinance its municipal bonds or secure insurance protection in the event of a major loss in court stemming from the eminent domain plan.
Foes of the plan have pounced, and supporters are cautious.
“This (City Council) needs to fish or cut bait and abandon this eminent domain madness,” Councilman Nat Bates said in an email to supporters Aug. 21. “The stakes are too high and costly to fight Wall Street and the financial institutions.”
Bates said he plans to move at the City Council’s Sept. 10 meeting to withdraw the city’s offers to purchase the underwater mortgages.
“This has caused serious financial risk to the city,” Bates said.
In August, Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank filed suit on behalf of investors for a preliminary injunction against Richmond and Mortgage Resolution Partners (MRP), the San Francisco-based investment firm that the city has partnered with to implement the plan. A hearing is scheduled for Sept. 13.
Perhaps more troubling, investors this month steered clear of the city’s highly rated municipal bonds, which it was attempting to sell to refinance a bond issue, saving $4 million. Some think the lack of investor interest was precipitated by the eminent domain decision. The city’s finances are already reeling, thanks to steep reductions in property tax revenues.
Councilman Jael Myrick, an initial supporter of the effort to use eminent domain, said he needs “all the facts.”
“Is our bond rating really at risk? How well are we protected?” Myrick said. “I need to know, but I still believe the program has tremendous value if we can find a way to make it work.”
…
Given the historically unprecedented prevalence of all-cash buyers, is this a good time to buy with a mortgage?
All-cash purchases squeeze buyers requiring mortgages
By Richard Metcalf / Journal Staff Writer
In N.M., 29% of July deals used currency
All-cash homebuyers are playing a major role in the housing recovery, sometimes squeezing out potential buyers who need to get a mortgage, according to a new report by Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac.
In New Mexico, 29 percent of the home purchases in July were all-cash deals, reflecting a phenomenon that’s being seen in most states around the country.
Despite seeming like a high proportion of sales, New Mexico’s 29 percent rate was 18th lowest among the 47 states for which all-cash sales data was available.
Nationwide, an average of 40 percent of home sales in July were all-cash deals, up from 35 percent in the preceding June and 31 percent in July 2012, RealtyTrac reported.
The national average is driven up by the high proportion of all-cash sales in states where housing markets are recovering fast after being hard hit by the bursting of the housing bubble. Six states saw half or more of all home sales paid in cash during July, led by Florida at 66 percent and Nevada at 64 percent.
…
If all-cash buyers are “squeezing out” buyers who need mortgages then this implies that this squeezing out is being done via price increases.
The greater the price increase the less a bargain a purchase tends to be. It really doesn’t make any difference HOW the money is gotten to fund the price increase, it only matters that the price increase is funded.
If this “all-cash” buying is done by money manangers who manage huge piles of OPM and if these money managers have an incentive to keep prices going up then it just may turn out that mortgage buyers are fortunate if they cannot get financing because not getting financing to purchase houses may keep them from being sucked into artificial price rises.
“…if they cannot get financing because not getting financing to purchase houses may keep them from being sucked into artificial price rises.”
And this, in turn, is why I suspect current efforts to get financing into the hands of low-income and minority buyers may appear to have harmed them when viewed through the lens of the rear-view mirror a few years down the road. Today’s mortgaged buyers are cannon fodder in the financial war with the all-cash investor brigade for an artificially limited inventory of homes for sale.
That said, so long as the Democrats who favor these incentive programs to encourage poor families and people of color to compete with the all-cash investor brigade for purchase of overpriced housing can later use their propaganda tactics to shift blame to Wall Street, banks, developers, or anyone but themselves, I don’t suppose they have anything to worry about if the consequences turn out badly for the groups they tried to help.
‘If all-cash buyers are “squeezing out” buyers who need mortgages then this implies that this squeezing out is being done via price increases.
The greater the price increase the less a bargain a purchase tends to be.’
Also important: Historically high levels of all-cash buyers “squeezing out” end-user buyers who need to borrow money to purchase a home for their families to live in may not remain historically high forever. And once the “squeezing out” ends, so will a large factor which recently drove prices up to unaffordable levels for many families to buy.
The trillion dollar question: Under the situation at hand, how does Stein’s Law square with Shilling’s Law?
+1 Kudos to Schilling.
Nope, the squeezing out was NOT a matter of price when I was still looking in 2011 and 2012 (in northern Calif.), several houses I made offers on had one or more 100% cash offers so my bids (full price or slightly more) were ignored as I was trying to buy w/ a conventional preapproved mortgage w/ 20% down….in this area at least most sellers will take the cash offer and ignore all others as the likelihood of the sale closing is much higher (no appraisal, maybe no contingencies or inspections, etc.)
By contrast when I bought in a more or less normal market in 1997 I looked at about 10 houses, made offers on two, one was accepted…the whole process took several weeks. This time around I gave up after a year of rejected offers.
“By contrast when I bought in a more or less normal market in 1997 I looked at about 10 houses, made offers on two, one was accepted…the whole process took several weeks. This time around I gave up after a year of rejected offers.”
We bought slightly before you did, with a similar experience — actually narrowed down our choice to a single place, and ignored the REALTOR®’s scare tactic of telling us there was a rival offer when making ours (which was accepted).
I can’t conceive of competing in bid wars with all-cash Wall Street-funded and foreign buyers. The idea sounds financially foolish on the face of it.
P.S. We also had only one week of house hunting time available to find a place!
P.P.S. It was in the City of Richmond, CA (which is why I can’t get enough of that eminent domain story).
Zillow sez the value of our place is still down by 49.2% from where we sold, and this is after a 33% gain off the trough.
We sold our first home, a 4+2, 2,000 sq ft “model” perfect with a beautiful yard in July of 1998, and priced it modestly, and had a hell of a time finding a buyer. No one in east Ventura County had cash, and we were one of the few equality sellers. The S&L crisis was still in recovery. The prices soared and came down faster than housing bubble 1.0 this time around. The market in 1998 was real. People had to bring cash to the table to get out of their homes.
If we ever decide to move to the east coast and live in a Sears or Montgomery Ward kit home, I’d rent this joint out. I’d never sell it. It’s paid for.
Yeah, we were cash and our competition was mostly FHAs. No way could this house pass FHAs criteria before we gutted it. The roof alone was a non-starter.
correction - We sold in 1997. Didn’t buy again until early 1998.
I would love to see a breakdown of who these “cash buyers” are. Are they 1%ers or are they corporations spending other people’s money (I’m guessing the latter)
A sprinkle might be move downs like us, but yeah, it’s deep pockets for sure.
Whither mortgage rates from here?
Mortgage rate increase, however slight, forces buyers to sidelines
Originally published: August 30, 2013 1:35 PM
Updated: August 31, 2013 11:08 AM
By BLOOMBERG NEWS
Amy and Ted Wilder lost out in the bidding for several Seattle-area homes during the past six months, even with offers well above the asking price. After May’s sudden spike in mortgage rates, the Microsoft consultants put their search on hold.
“We fell in love with a house for about $400,000 and thought we could afford it, and then we discovered it was $300 more a month than what we would have paid in February when we started looking,” Amy Wilder, 42, said. “The mortgage rates just pushed it too far.”
A surge in borrowing costs to a two-year high is starting to cool demand from homebuyers as higher rates combine with surging prices to reduce affordability, according to data released this week. The biggest pinch is being felt in expensive markets such as Seattle and New York, where budgets already were stretched, leading to a more uneven national recovery.
Contracts to buy previously owned homes fell 1.3 percent last month, the biggest decline this year, the National Association of Realtors said last week. They slid 6.5 percent in the Northeast and 4.9 percent in the West, the data showed. The figures followed a report last week that July new-home sales plunged 13.4 percent, paced by a 16.1 percent drop in the West.
“There is a bigger monthly payment shock in the high-cost areas,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors group. “Higher interest rates may pull demand out.”
…
Better hurry up and buy now, before rates increase to over 5%! (Either that, or else ignore the REALTOR® scam that suggests your only choices are to buy now or buy later; you can always rent instead!)
Mortgage rates increase again — to 2-year high
Posted: 08/29/2013
By Angie Johnson
Once again mortgage rates have risen, adding strains to the budgets of Arizona homebuyers who are already battling a competitive market with rising home prices.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at 4.75% from 4.5% last week. One year ago, that rate stood at only 3.90%. If you’re considering selling and buying again I suggest you get busy before we see rates rise to over 6% again. Angie Johnson of Realty One Group in Scottsdale, Arizona says she is seeing an increase in both buyers and sellers in this last week of August, 2013.
The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to 3.75% this week compared to 3.60% last week. The jumbo 30-year fixed-rate rose to 4.88% from 4.73%. As mortgage rates rise, REALTORS® are hoping more homebuyers will get off the sidelines in hopes of buying while rates are still relatively low and affordable.
Will rates continue to increase? – Angie Johnson REALTOR® says, “While mortgage rates still remain low by historical standards, they are highly likely to continue climbing. What you may or may not realize is the Federal Reserve has been spending over $85 billion per month - yes, I said $85 BILLION each month, purchasing long-term Treasury notes and mortgage bonds to stimulate our economy and keep rates artificially low.” “ I’ve referred to this in the past as a beach ball being held under water in a pool by someone’s hand keeping it there; sooner or later you have to let the ball surface and float where it will.”
Don’t hold your breath for lower rates, says Dylan James of the Lending Company in Phoenix, Arizona. We were fortunate to have interest rates as low as they were for as long as they were. I’m predicting interest rates in the mid 5% range by years end.
…
Mortgage rates hit new high for 2013, some predict 5 percent soon
Teresa Dixon Murray, The Plain Dealer By Teresa Dixon Murray, The
on August 22, 2013 at 2:24 PM, updated August 22, 2013 at 4:16 PM
CLEVELAND, Ohio — The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan reached a new high for the year following nervousness about future moves by the Federal Reserve Bank.
The average hit 4.58 percent, up from 4.4 percent last week, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said today. In Cleveland, at Third Federal Savings — one of this region’s biggest and traditionally lowest-cost lenders — the rate today was 4.99 percent. KeyCorp is at 4.94 percent, while Huntington is at 4.5 percent.
The higher rates mean someone with a $175,000 mortgage will pay $895 a month now, compared to the $767 a month it would have cost the home buyer last fall.
The rate hikes follow increases in bond yields, which moved because the Fed has been talking about the strength of the economy and that it is planning to slow down buying bonds through its repurchase program later this year.
A year ago, the 30-year rate was 3.66 percent.
Rates were at their lowest this year in early January, at 3.35 percent, after inching up from the record low of 3.31 percent in November. The big increase has come in the last three months, just in time for summer home-buying.
The 15-year rate today was 3.6 percent, up from 2.89 percent a year ago.
Freddie Mac economist Frank Nothaft noted that Fed officials in a recent meeting acknowledged that “rate increases might restrain housing market activity, but several members expressed confidence the housing recovery would be resilient in the face of higher rates.”
…
August 20, 2013, 2:30 p.m. ET
Zillow: 30-Year Mortgage Rate Increases to Two-Year High
By Nathalie Tadena
Real-estate website Zillow Inc. (Z) said its real-time rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since May 2011 in the latest week.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace rose to 4.52% from 4.31% a week earlier. Zillow has reported an increase in mortgage rates for four consecutive weeks.
“Mortgage rates hit a two-year high on generally positive domestic economic news and stronger-than-expected European performance,” said Erin Lantz, director of Zillow Mortgage Marketplace. “We expect rates to continue to rise gradually this week, unless Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes contradict expectations that the Fed will begin to wind down its stimulus program in September.”
…
Buying a home is your patriotic duty, as fundamental as eating mom’s apple pie and attending July 4 parades.
Renting is disloyal, subversive and un-American.
This makes me even happier to be a renter and driving a 2003 Toyota! Next they will tell us investing in emerging markets is anti-American. Oh buying gold is going to be announced anti-american at some point by this president or by President Hillary Clinton. But my stack will be hidden underneath my ammo.
You keep your ammo in the pantry behind the oatmeal?
Why you so afraid of an old white women?
I confess that wrinkly old white women scare me as well.
Wouldn’t you like to see HER twerking at the VMAs?
If your not paying interest to the banks you are un-american. Pay your wall street taxes and learn to like it.
My post was (hopefully) an obvious attempt to be humorous.
In reality, renters don’t get a free pass on the high housing price tax, as landlords pass through their high taxes through to their tenants in the form of high rents.
“the judge also authorized the use of force ‘against the children’ … reasoning that such force might be required because the children had ‘adopted the parents’ opinions’ regarding homeschooling and that ‘no cooperation could be expected’ from either the parents or the children,”
Police storm homeschool class, take children by force
Published: 2 days ago
Four children, ages 7 to 14, have been forcibly taken from their Darmstadt, Germany, home by police armed with a battering ram, and their parents have been told they won’t see them again soon, all over the issue of homeschooling, according to a stunning new report from the Home School Legal Defense Association.
HSLDA, the world’s premiere advocate for homeschoolers, said the family of Dirk and Petra Wunderlich has battled for several years Germany’s World War II-era requirement that all children submit to the indoctrination programs in the nation’s public schools.
The shocking raid was made solely because the parents were providing their children’s education, HSLDA said. The organization noted the paperwork that authorized police officers and social workers to use force on the children contained no claims of mistreatment.
“The children were taken to unknown locations,” HSLDA said. “Officials ominously promised the parents that they would not be seeing their children anytime soon.”
The raid, which took place Thursday at 8 a.m. as the children were beginning their day’s classes, has been described by observers as “brutal and vicious.”
A team of 20 social workers, police and special agents stormed the family’s home. HSLDA reported a Judge Koenig, who is assigned to the Darmstadt family court, signed an order authorizing the immediate seizure of the children by force.
“Citing the parents’ failure to cooperate ‘with the authorities to send the children to school,’ the judge also authorized the use of force ‘against the children’ … reasoning that such force might be required because the children had ‘adopted the parents’ opinions’ regarding homeschooling and that ‘no cooperation could be expected’ from either the parents or the children,” HSLDA said.
Dirk Wunderlich told the homeschool group: “I looked through a side window and saw many people, police and special agents, all armed. They told me they wanted to come in to speak with me. I tried to ask questions, but within seconds, three police officers brought a battering ram and were about to break the door in, so I opened it.”
Join the battle over Germany’s homeschooling ban.
His narration continued: “The police shoved me into a chair and wouldn’t let me even make a phone call at first. It was chaotic as they told me they had an order to take the children. At my slightest movement the agents would grab me, as if I were a terrorist. You would never expect anything like this to happen in our calm, peaceful village. It was like a scene out of a science fiction movie. Our neighbors and children have been traumatized by this invasion.”
http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/police-storm-homeschool-class-take-children-by-force/ -
Had these parents only listened to MSNBC host Melissa Harris-Perry, perhaps this could have been avoided.
“We have to break through our kind of private idea that kids belong to their parents or kids belong to their families and recognize that kids belong to whole communities,”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3qtpdSQox0 - 151k - Cached - Similar pages
Apr 4, 2013 …
“… kids belong to whole communities.”
These “whole communities” that kids belong to are often sectioned into streets. In some areas of South Central L.A.(and a few other places I can think of) the kids belong to and identify with the street they live on and if they happen to find theselves disrespecting kids that live on another street (by doing something as trivial as walking down it) then they just may end up dead.
This is true of kids of a certain ethic background but is not necessairly true of adults because adults walking down a street is not normally seen as a sign of disrespect to the people living on that street. Hence kids find themselves as prisoners in areas where most everybody else has freedom.
Strange and crazy world.
The Germans are afraid of the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Madras type schools.
Couldn’t they outlaw Madrasas without broadening the scope to all home schooling activity?
in Madras type schools.
Prep schools?
“The children were taken to unknown locations…”
In heaven the British are the police, the Germans are the engineers, the French are the chefs, the Italians are the lovers, and the Swiss organize everything.
In hell the Germans are the police, the French are the engineers, the British are the chefs, the Swiss are the lovers, and the Italians organize everything.
+1 LOL!
Germany has some of the best schools in the world, period.
Those parents really are hurting their children.
“Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, always. Your losses are magnified tremendously if you finance it.”
BINGO
duck dynasty marathon today?
Oh $hitHouse Poet….. you’re so far over your head and underwater you don’t know which way is up.
…..”as far as “baby boomers” go, they’re exiting SFR’s and entering assisted living facilities. This trend will continue leaving an additional 35 MILLION excess empty houses on the market. That doesn’t include the already bloated inventory of 20-25 MILLION excess empty houses.
The boomer retirement fad has long since passed years ago.”
“Housing as a rental investment is a huge gamble considering it’s negative cash flow at current inflated asking prices of resale housing.
Beware.”
Exactly.
Bay Area Housing Demand Collapses A Whopping 32% YoY
http://picpaste.com/pics/e8cea4626f00e76bf4b20ef426f0adae.1376499796.png
Do you realize how terribly out of tune your posts are with the happy housing recovery song which is repeated on a daily basis in the MSM echo chamber?
What was the devils interval?? An augmented 4th?
Either that or a diminished fifth.
So a C, an E-flat, and a G walk into a bar. The bartender says, “sorry, but we don’t serve minors.”
So E-flat leaves, and C and G have an open fifth between them. After a few drinks, the fifth is diminished and G is out flat. F comes in and tries to augment the situation, but is not sharp enough.
…
AKA “tritone,” since it consists of an interval of three whole steps (e.g. (C to F#) = (C to D) + (D to E) + (E to F#) ).
Can either be spelled as an augmented fourth (C to F#) or a diminished fifth (C to G-flat).
“Just for the record; there is no shortage of housing. Not in California, not in Tokyo, not anywhere. And there will come a day (again) when the media will tell us, ‘there’s a glut of houses for sale in….’, and regale us with sob stories, ‘I was doing great until the economy went south and my income went away and I can’t get rid of this damned house!’”
~Ben Jones, August 8, 2013
This false notion…. this lie….. that there is a shortage of housing in the US is laughable considering there are tens of millions of excess empty houses out there. A sea of them. And it’s growing. Day by day.
“Mortgage delinquencies take a sharp turn up”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100914292
And they’ll continue rising for as long as transactions occur at massively inflated prices.
And remember, today’s sale at a massively inflated price is tomorrows default.
What’s in your hood, green dots or blue dots? If you have all blue dots you had better look for some green dots or you may face the new penalty which would be a withholding of federal funds from local and state government agencies dependent on HUD grants if they fail to push greater diversity.
So the federal gooberment takes money from you through taxes, borrows money in your name as well as the name of your great great great great great great great great great grandchildren and then withholds that money from you if you don’t do what they want you to do. Is that it?
———————————————————————————
By Chris Stirewalt
Published July 23, 2013 •
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan announced the database and regulation at last week’s NAACP convention, saying the Obama administration was battling “a quieter form of discrimination” that was “just as harmful” as long-outlawed segregationist practices, like racially restrictive property covenants.
The problem now, Donovan said, is that prospective minority buyers are not being encouraged to move into predominantly white neighborhoods with top-notch schools, government services and amenities like grocery stories, etc.
The goal here then is to continue to prosecute at a high rate incidences deemed proactively segregationist – Donovan touted 25,000 individuals in the past 3 years being paid damages under cases reported to the agency or independently investigated by HUD – but to add in a mandate for diversifying neighborhoods.
The old way was to punish exclusion. The new way is to punish lack of inclusion.
Best suggestion I can offer to prospective homebuyers in light of this policy:
Purchase a home in demographically stable area with good schools AND sufficiently diverse neighborhoods to not be subject to this forced integration scheme. Such areas will tend to go up in value in the face of forced integration, while areas with good schools whose level of diversity is deemed insufficient will potentially undergo forced social upheaval and sizable drops in real estate values as those who settled in the area to avoid diversification move away to seek alternative nondiversified surroundings.
What if they make the blue dots move into a hood that has all green dots?
So far as I am aware, it is legal for the government to force areas with excessively many blue dots to accept more green dots, but not legal to force blue dots to relocate into areas deemed to have too many green dots.
Well that’s Dotist.
“Well that’s Dotist.”
Now that you raised the question, I’m wondering what the legal limits of forced racial mixing are. For instance, can Uncle Sam force whites in areas deemed to lack diversity to move out of the area?
I recall something along these lines has occurred in other countries, but I’m not sure about its legality in the U.S.
I had to review the dot color scheme to understand your question.
Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service — University of Virginia
The Racial Dot Map
One Dot Per Person for the Entire United States
Created by Dustin Cable, July 2013
Link to Full Screen Map
This map is an American snapshot; it provides an accessible visualization of geographic distribution, population density, and racial diversity of the American people in every neighborhood in the entire country. The map displays 308,745,538 dots, one for each person residing in the United States at the location they were counted during the 2010 Census. Each dot is color-coded by the individual’s race and ethnicity. The map is presented in both black and white and full color versions. In the color version, each dot is color-coded by race.
All of the data displayed on the map are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010 Summary File 1 dataset made publicly available through the National Historical Geographic Information System. The data is based on the “census block,” the smallest area of geography for which data is collected (roughly equivalent to a city block in an urban area).
The map was created by Dustin Cable, a demographic researcher at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. Brandon Martin-Anderson from the MIT Media Lab deserves credit for the original inspiration for the project. This map builds on his work by adding the Census Bureau’s racial data, and by correcting for mapping errors.
The Dots
Each of the 308 million dots are smaller than a pixel on your computer screen at most zoom levels. Therefore, the “smudges” you see at the national and regional levels are actually aggregations of many individual dots. The dots themselves are only resolvable at the city and neighborhood zoom levels.
Each dot on the map is also color-coded by race and ethnicity. Whites are coded as blue; African-Americans, green; Asians, red; Hispanics, orange; and all other racial categories are coded as brown.
…
Boy, what a racist state Colorado is.
The Racial Dot Map
One Dot Per Person for the Entire United States
Created by Dustin Cable, July 2013
Link to Full Screen Map
Boy, what a racist state Colorado is.
Loveland and Ft. Collins are lilly white. Greeley has a large Hispanic population. There are blacks in metro Denver.
I do like the way whites are now refered to as “lilly white”. Is that more of that liberal “tolerance”?
“lilly white”
That’s a politically correct code word for “too white.”
I do like the way whites are now refered to as “lilly white”.
Well, there’s northern Euro white and there’s Mediterranean white. My understanding is that “lilly white” refers to the former.
I just posted the “dot map” (July 2013 vintage) which will hopefully show up soon. There are a number of fascinating aspects of U.S. demography which become apparent at a glance when looking at this map at various zoom levels. For instance:
1) At the highest zoom level, one readily notes that
- the U.S. population density is generally very sparse between the Great Plains out to the California coast;
- Most heavy concentrations of blacks (green dots) are found in the Southeast
- California is by far the most ethnically diverse, in terms of the mixture of Asian, Hispanic and other ethnicities.
2) Zooming in on California shows that
- The only ethnically diverse areas are around the big cities or flanking the Great Central Valley
- Outlying areas are predominantly white (blue dots)
- The East Bay area across from San Francisco is one of the most diverse areas in the country; in particular, the City of Richmond has such an extreme level of diversity that it is hard to tell from the dot map which color dominates
I checked my city and it’s dead on the money.
How about your hood eco, any green dots?
PB, Asians don’t count as integrated. They are regarded like whites, thus the areas of California need more blacks. My former place in Torrance has about 50% whites and 30% Asians. I bet it is one of the white areas that must be integrated, according to The One’s wishes.
Green dots?
I have all the dots and they almost outnumber the blue dots.
All your dots are belong to us.
“Best suggestion I can offer to prospective homebuyers in light of this policy…”
This policy of course requires taxpayer subsidies. It’s Section 8, but at a higher level.
I prefer wait-n-see. This policy, like Phony Scandals predicts, is aimed at middle class and upper middle class areas and the wealthy will be exempt. It won’t happen all overnight, but in two generations. In two generations I would like to be around but age gets to us. I prefer to move around.
Section 8 has already destroyed many communities the last four decades. Fresno (my hometown) is one example. Detroit is the way of the future for Fresno. This new policy, if enacted, will only accelerate that pace for Fresno and all other communities. It won’t change the direction.
It’s better for your own personal net worth to go “on strike” against these socialist engineering policies. And actually it will put the nail in the coffin of the notion of real estate being some sort of retirement plan. When your decent neighborhood gets thinned out of decent people and your next door neighbor gets a grant of, probably, 50% of the house value because he’s black and you are not, but you had to pay full price, nothing good will come from this.
I thought the policies of QE since 2008 were to keep real estate prices artificially high. Well massive new doses of subsidies will make houses a dime a dozen. America will turn into one humongous Detroit.
So while house prices decline, at least even if apartments are forced to allow massive Section 8 injections, the government will have to shut down web sites such as ApartmentRatings.com, which is one key resource on where I find a place to rent that has decent people. Renting will be the last holdout for people who want to hold onto their wealth. This will substantiate the HBBs stance that real estate is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overvalued.
Will upscale gated communities with underdiversified ethnicity be subject to forced integration? I wonder if such communities will find themselves competing for the residency of millionaire athletes, entertainers and corporate executives of color.
Already happening in the pricier parts of Ahwatukee. Diamondbacks, Suns, Cardinals stars live in some of the McMansions. The pricier area of Phoenix is Paradise Valley and I’m sure some stars live there too. Remember the movie “Jeremy McGuire?” The football star was joining the Cardinals, I believe. He had a desert home.
I could not handle any cRAP noise though. I’d prefer to live in north Snottsdale.
“Already happening in the pricier parts of Ahwatukee. Diamondbacks, Suns, Cardinals stars live in some of the McMansions”
Tiger Woods lives on Jupiter Island. I don’t think this agenda is ponted at rich sports stars and wealthy hoods. It is meant for the middle and upper middle class.
“It is meant for the middle and upper middle class.”
Oh I see…whatever economic turmoil results from this top-down fix will be targeted at middles class neighborhoods. Rich folks will get an exemption, because they are special (and make especially large campaign contributions).
PB, I think, you and P.S. are right. This is always the case. Forced integration is for the middle class, not the upper class libs. I remember back in the Cahtah days, Amy Carter was sent to a private school, of course for lily whites, while my town, Fresno, was just starting its forced integration programs. I got out of high school just in time. Many schools around the nation were integrating. Dr. Demento had a popular song out called “Another one rides the bus,” as a parody on Queen’s hit, and about bussing. Dr. Demento back then was an admitted libertarian.
“Rich folks will get an exemption, because they are special (and make especially large campaign contributions).”
Yup.
Kinda like the exemption congress gave themselves from the healthcare law, it would have led to a “brain drain”. Can’t have that after the fine job they’ve done. They had to pass it to find out what was in it and when they found out what was in it they got themselves out of it.
Which was kinda like the big bonuses that had to go to the bailed out bankers after they collapsed the financial system, couldn’t have a “brain drain” there either or God knows where we would be.
“Rich folks will get an exemption, because they are special (and make especially large campaign contributions).”
+1 Same with saber rattling, and send your kids off to college.
I strongly doubt if the neighborhoods work hard to recruit Asian Americans to thin out the amount of whites, it would be regarded as “integrated.”
Asian Americans don’t count, as they don’t add the right flavor of diversity.
Besides that, in some hoods (e.g. the U.C. Berkeley campus), Asians are the majority, which means they definitively are not a minority.
“…amenities like grocery stories, etc.”
Is Donovan suggesting that areas with people of color don’t even have grocery stories?
That’s racist!
I wonder if any of the central planners involved with cooking up this policy have read Thomas Schelling’s book, Micromotives and Macrobehavior? As one who was brought up with the liberal view that segregation is a reflection of society’s racism, I found the explanation of segregation in the book very enlightening.
According to Schelling’s model, a top-down segregation fix could make both pennies and nickels worse off, as some pennies prefer to avoid nickels as neighbors and vice versa.
But who am I to question the central planners’ superior wisdom?
Schelling’s segregation model
Thomas Schelling, in 1971, showed that a small preference for one’s neighbors to be of the same color could lead to total segregation. He used coins on graph paper to demonstrate his theory by placing pennies and nickels in different patterns on the “board” and then moving them one by one if they were in an “unhappy” situation. Here’s the high-tech equivalent. The rule this ALife model operates on is that for every colored cell, if greater than 33% of the adjacent cells are of a different color, the cell moves to another randomly selected cell.
This is my first experiment with writing computer programs to simulate interesting processes we come across in real life. There are a number of reasons why this kind of simulation is useful and I’ll try to summarize what in my mind are the main ones:
Most modelling techniques are based on the notion that an equilibrium state is the norm, while cellular automata (CA) simulations do not have this bias.
Instead of trying to create a model that requires a full understanding of the highly complex outcomes of processes, CA allows us to understand the decision rules of a small number of individual actors.
Simulation models are very good at incorporating time and space, especially when tied to a geographic information system.
For more information on Schelling’s segregation model, please see:
Schelling, Thomas C. 1971. “Dynamic Models of Segregation.” Journal of Mathematical Sociology 1:143-186.
Krugman, Paul 1996. The Self-Organizing Economy Blackman, New York.
W.A.V. Clark 1991. “Residential Preferences and Neighborhood Racial Segregation: A Test of the Schelling Segregation Model.” Demography 28:1.
Is China the only BRIC left whose economy has yet to crumble?
China’s Economy Strengthens With Factory Gauge at 16-Month High
By Bloomberg News - Sep 1, 2013 9:01 AM PT
China’s economy is strengthening after a two-quarter slowdown, with a manufacturing gauge rising to a 16-month high in August as new orders jumped and overseas demand rebounded.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 51.0, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday in Beijing. HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics will today release the final reading of their gauge after a preliminary figure on Aug. 22 showed the biggest gain in three years.
Improvement in manufacturing may bolster confidence that the economy is responding to Premier Li Keqiang’s policies to support growth amid a crackdown on shadow banking aimed at curbing financial risks. JPMorgan Chase & Co. yesterday joined Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG in raising estimates for an increase in gross domestic product, citing strength in infrastructure and real-estate, and a pickup in exports.
“The recovery is being driven primarily by domestic demand but international demand is picking up too as we can see from the jump in new export orders,” said Lu Ting, head of Greater China economics at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. “This will surely boost markets’ confidence in China’s recovery amid the turmoil in some emerging markets.”
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) rose 2 percent last week, the biggest gain since March. The yuan completed its second straight monthly advance in August on optimism the economy is picking up.
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As investor groups buy thousands of Indianapolis area homes, worries - and prices - rise
Written by
Jeff Swiatek
Sep. 1, 2013 7:21 AM
Christopher Stark sees his Noblesville neighborhood changing fast. Since spring, seven houses in a two-block stretch of his street in the Creekside at Cedar Pass subdivision have sold.
The sales aren’t as surprising as the buyer is: a real estate investment trust from Los Angeles.
“They got that one, the tan one they are working on, and those three in a row,” Stark says, waving a hand at the homes snapped up by his cash-rich new neighbor, American Homes 4 Rent.
Scenes like this are playing out all over the Indianapolis area, and the housing market has never seen anything like it. Neighborhood worries — but also home prices — are rising.
Since last year, several thousand houses in the area, from inner-city locations in Center Township to suburbs in Hamilton, Hendricks and other surrounding counties, have been bought and deeded over to real estate investment trusts (REITs), limited partnerships, corporations and other investment groups.
These are not home flippers, who flooded into the market before and during the mortgage meltdown in 2006-08 and contributed to thousands of homes falling into foreclosure.
Most in this wave of investor-buyers, such as American Homes 4 Rent, intend to hang on to the homes they are buying and rent them. Many are out of state. And they almost always pay cash.
REITS that specialize in buying single-family homes are new, and how their cash will impact neighborhoods in Indianapolis and other cities is unclear.
The mass purchases by big investors help explain why sales of existing homes are surging in the Indianapolis area. Over the past 12 months, sales have jumped 19 percent compared with the previous 12 months, with about half the increase due to the investor activity.
“They’re buying a ton of homes,” said Jim Litten, president of the residential division at F.C. Tucker, the area’s largest realty company.
http://www.indystar.com/article/20130901/BUSINESS/309010012/As-investor-groups-buy-thousands-Indianapolis-area-homes-worries-prices-rise -
“Here’s the reality: We, like many conservatives, don’t care who you sleep with. We don’t care about your gayness, your straightness, your bi-curiousness, your asexuality or your transsexuality. Your sexuality is of no consequence to us.”
+1
Chicks on the Right: Don’t stereotype conservatives on LGBT issues
Aug. 29, 2013
In the half decade we’ve had the Chicks On The Right website, we’ve received thousands of messages from liberals calling us every name imaginable, and some even making threats against our lives. It’s nothing new. We’re quite used to liberal “tolerance.”
We’ve been accused of being privileged, wealthy suburbanites who live off our oppressive Republican husbands’ trust funds; of being paid Karl Rove operatives; and we’ve been accused relentlessly of being racists, ageists, classists, sexists and homophobes. We’re white, conservative women, so we must be all of those things, right? It’s all part of the stereotypical broad brush we constantly get painted with.
While we could go on about each of those accusations separately, we want to address homophobia in particular. Here’s the reality: We, like many conservatives, don’t care who you sleep with. We don’t care about your gayness, your straightness, your bi-curiousness, your asexuality or your transsexuality. Your sexuality is of no consequence to us.
What gets to us, though, are people who define themselves by their sexuality. In the same way we get annoyed by feminists who define themselves by their ladyparts, we take issue with gay people who cannot see outside the prism of their own sexuality. This is why you’ll often hear us say, “That’s great that you’re gay, but no one cares. Just be gay and stop making it the cornerstone of your entire existence already.”
This will probably make liberals’ heads explode, but we have many LGBT friends and followers who are conservative. So let’s make sure this point gets across: LGBT conservatives exist. And you know what else? Even LGBT Christianconservatives exist.
One gay friend in particular was recently accused by his friends and family for being a “sell-out” – because liberals don’t believe he can be gay and conservative at the same time. A transsexual follower of ours faces similar verbal beat-downs all the time from other LGBT folks. Apparently, in the broader LGBT community, if you don’t vote Democrat, you’re simply not LGBT enough. It’s the same mentality of those liberals who accuse conservative women of being anti-woman. If we’re female, then we’re apparently automatically supposed to be liberals, because War on Women! Or something.
http://www.indystar.com/article/20130829/OPINION13/308290061/Chicks-Right-Don-t-stereotype-conservatives-LGBT-issues - 168k
And you know what else? Even LGBT Christianconservatives exist.
They probably aren’t big fans of Paul the Apostle.
Here’s the reality: We, like many conservatives, don’t care who you sleep with.
That’s NOT what your actions say.
Now now you two, remember your “tolerance” for others.
Is there a possibility that bubbles historically have been routinely used as a means for countries to escape their war debt?
What burst the Mississippi bubble?
In 1715, France was essentially insolvent as a nation. Even though taxes were raised to extremely high levels, the hole that warfare had left in the French treasury was too deep. France began to default on its outstanding debt and the value of its gold and silver currency whipsawed as people feared for the future of the nation. France turned to John Law to solve its problems. Law was a Scottish exile – he killed a man in a sword duel – whose talents in both gambling and finance gave him great weight with the government.
Law thought it was the unpredictable supply of gold and silver that was slowing the economy rather than a true economic problem. By switching to paper, he reasoned, more currency could be issued and trade would speed up. He created a bank that took deposits in coin, but issued loans and withdrawals in paper. Law’s bank built up its reserves through a stock issue and also made a good profit by handling the government’s finance needs.
Law decided to expand by acquiring the Mississippi Company. The company held a government-backed monopoly over trading with French Louisiana. Under Law’s influence, the company’s charters grew to include tax collection and all trade outside of Europe. The stock price shot up and the amount of cash needed to buy Mississippi shares meant that more money had to be printed.
Unfortunately, people wanted gold and silver when they took profits. Law capped redemption in gold and silver to avoid depleting his reserves. This removed France’s paper currency from the gold and silver standard and put it on the Mississippi Company share price standard. The amount of paper currency afloat was now many times the actual reserves of gold and silver and hyperinflation set in.
…
“This removed France’s paper currency from the gold and silver standard and put it on the Mississippi Company share price standard. The amount of paper currency afloat was now many times the actual reserves of gold and silver and hyperinflation set in.”
That sounds very familiar. In fact, it sounds just like what happened in the U.S. towards the end of the Vietnam war, and just got kicked into hyperdrive with the advent of QE1, QE2, and QE3.
Good thing U.S. inflation is so low, or we would really have something to worry about!
Good thing U.S. inflation is so low, or we would really have something to worry about!
A roofer friend was telling me that asphalt shingles have tripled in price in the past 10 years. Good thing inflation is under control, or they would have gone up 1000%
yeah they sure are pricey. I think roofers bid jobs by the square. a square is 100 sq ft. I think it takes 3 of the bundles to make 100 sq ft so 30 bucks a bundle * 3 = 90.00 or .90 cents a square foot just for shingles.
Then you have felt paper. 30lb felt paper means that the material weighs 30lbs / 100 sq ft. That stuff is pricey too. 28 bucks for 216 sq ft so about .13 cents sq ft.
.13+ 90= 1.03 for paper and shingles.
then you have installation costs.
A friend of mine just roofed a small 1200 ft house in monterey and it cost about 12000.00 Or 100 / sq ft.
That was tearing off the old wood shingles, sheeting with osb, then 30lb paper and then 40 year shingles.
Check your math.
^^^^^^
LOLZ. Reader beware.
Is there a possibility that bubbles historically have been routinely used as a means for countries to escape their war debt?
As a matter of fact, yes,.
However, there is also a feedback effect. Just as often, the war debt causes the inflation. Even hyper-inflation, which can then cause a destabilizing effect on the local government.
I thought deflation was the Fed’s bogeyman, not inflation?
Look at the history of war reparations. Go as far back as you like.
It’s VERY enlightening.
I would also suggest a thorough look at the Medici.
Well I realize the Germans ran the printing press big time after WWI to inflate away the value of their war reparations. But I can’t imagine anything similar happening in the U.S., especially given the Fed’s mandate to control inflation.
Question: If you are a cash buyer, how can you be sure your neighbors are not underwater and your new neighborhood will turn slum?
I found on Zillow a 2,600 square foot house for the $360k range. Next door is a house zillowed at $900,000. Next to that is a house zillowed at $1.1M, on the other side of the $360k house is a house zillowed above $500,000. Across the street is another million dollar house. It’s a short sale in the Ahwatukee area. Been on the market 3 days. It needs, according to the listing, “TLC.” I figure throw in $100,000 and you still have a bargain in a high value neighb, and hobnob with Arizona Diamondback stars, or Phoenix Sun stars…
Doesn’t sound like it could turn slum, but that “TLC.” sounds like it might be a bulldozer. As far as your neighbors being underwater, it’s a safe bet that half of them are.
I think that the nabes with the greatest risk of going “slum” are the cheap ones. Those are the houses “investors” will buy to rent out.
“I think that the nabes with the greatest risk of going “slum” are the cheap ones. Those are the houses “investors” will buy to rent out”
To who? Why would that make them go slum? I think you are flirting with racism there.
You’re the one who brought it up.
True on the neighborhoods overwhelmed by specuvestors, if the percentage of rentals and especially those w/ absentee landlords goes too high the character changes for the worse, there have been several articles on this lately and many links to them here….yet another reason (though there were already PLENTY) to wait all this nonsense out so you can get a better feel for an area before taking the plunge and buying.
“I think that the nabes with the greatest risk of going “slum” are the cheap ones. Those are the houses “investors” will buy to rent out.”
In the seventies in San Jose, CA the HUD programs hit the neighborhoods around Capitol Expressway and Senter Road, which were primarily blue collar, working class home owners. The crime increase was dramatic, but it became a great hunting grounds for repossessions; made lots of money in there. I’m certain it is a major welfare chit hole these days as blue collar jobs were off-shored.
and hobnob with Arizona Diamondback stars, or Phoenix Sun stars…
Hmmm … I guess they might throw some wild parties. Don’t know if they would invite you just because you’re a neighbor.
“Question: If you are a cash buyer, how can you be sure your neighbors are not underwater and your new neighborhood will turn slum?”
Your local tax assessors office. The good ones will even have all that info on-line.
“Question: If you are a cash buyer, how can you be sure your neighbors are not underwater and your new neighborhood will turn slum?”
“Your local tax assessors office. The good ones will even have all that info on-line.”
I can find all the purchase and refi info on our tax assessors site but I have not been able to find the slum predictor.
You have to run your own number for that, but they are there.
Look at the history of sale, graph accordingly.
But nothing beats an drive through.
Combine the 2 and you wold have to be an FB to miss the signs.
Outstanding advice
Good point. There is hope I could discover which neighborhoods are deadbeats or not. It would make sense to avoid those that the tax assessor either has no info on or refuses to give out that info. Dead giveway that the neighborhood is rotten.
Right off the bat, exactly.
Girl, 3, dies after being run over by bulldozer
By Huang Zhiling (China Daily) 09:05, August 30, 2013
Most of the world’s media are using headlines like: “‘They killed my daughter with a bulldozer’: Girl, 3, dead after southeast China land fight”
Sad.
ft dot com
August 30, 2013 4:51 pm
Fed ‘taper’ is dicey game of dominoes
By Ralph Atkins in London
Lining up dominoes is a hazardous game, as any child knows. A small slip can result in the whole lot falling prematurely and chaotically. Investors may wonder whether Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve chairman, is attempting a similar feat.
Talk about Fed “tapering” – the central bank’s plans to scale back asset purchases, or “quantitative easing” – has driven US Treasury yields sharply higher since May. In response, investors have pulled out of riskier assets in emerging markets, sending share and bond prices spiralling downwards in countries such as India.
By Friday, developing economy tensions had lost some intensity, and worries about Syria have helped US Treasuries rally this week. But the calm has done little to ease uncertainty about whether this will blow into a bigger crisis. Will “tapering” effects be controlled? Or might they disrupt other markets that benefited from exceptionally loose monetary policies – perhaps elsewhere in emerging economies or for high yield bonds, US real estate or southern eurozone government debt?
“Investors have to adjust to the notion that there is going to be more volatility from now on,” warns Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock. “A number of assets saw valuations get very elevated . . . As rates normalise, some of these assets are not going to perform as well as they did.”
…
Gold is pricing in no current U.S. military action on Syria.
Sept. 1, 2013, 11:36 p.m. EDT
Gold falls on planned U.S. vote over Syria
But futures pare loss after China data, with silver moving higher
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Gold futures traded lower Monday as a U.S. military strike on Syria appeared to be less certain, though upbeat economic data from China helped gold pare its loss and pull other metals to a gain.
Gold for December delivery (GCZ3 -1.14%) traded $5.70 below its Friday close, for a loss of 0.4% to $1,390.40 an ounce.
In Friday trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex, gold had fallen 1.2% for a third day of losses.
The Nymex was due to remain closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday, and several analysts cited profit-taking ahead of the long weekend as helping the futures’ decline.
Meanwhile, uncertainty over a U.S. military action in Syria helped drive the yellow metal lower over the weekend.
U.S. President Barack Obama said Saturday he would seek approval from Congress for a strike against Syrian government forces in retaliation for their believed use of chemical weapons against civilians.
While Obama could still order a strike without congressional approval, such an action would carry political perils. And with Congress currently in recess, no headcount to determine the likely outcome of the vote was possible.
“The market’s assumption is that we aren’t going to see military action” from the U.S. anytime in the immediate future, Dow Jones Newswires quoted Heritage West Financial analyst Ralph Preston as saying, though he added that “these are very fluid events.”
“Gold is typically sensitive to geopolitical events, and military escalation in Syria would be expected to be bullish for gold and would likely push prices well over $1,400 an ounce,” wrote HSBC analysts.
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