Hawaii Housing ‘Pretty Much Hit The Peak’
A reader sent in this article on Hawaii. “The Big Island’s real market is cooling down after experiencing some of its highest peaks in history. Between January and April, median home sales prices in West Hawaii have leveled off or declined up to $200,000, according to the Hawaii Information Service.”
“‘We’re looking at a recession,’ said Dave Lucas, a real estate agent since 1985. ‘We follow the mainland and we’re about six months to a year behind. The decline starts on the East Coast and moves west.’”
“Lucas said states that experienced ‘horrendous bubbles,’ such as Arizona, Florida and California, are now seeing a dramatic rise in for-sale inventories. He said the real estate market is influenced by radical emotional changes, primarily fear, greed and denial. Any of these unpredictable factors have the potential to shift the market in any direction, he said.”
“‘People (on the East Coast) get the first inkling of what policies are going to be,’ Lucas said. ‘Monetary policy is controlled in Washington and on Wall Street so they tend to see which way the wind is blowing first. Their markets have slowed significantly already. In the bubble areas the frenzy just tends to feed on itself until it shuts off.’”
“Richard Bell, a 25-year Kona resident, said history has taught him that West Hawaii real estate is on the decline, and price tags for homes on the market typically decrease 25 to 30 percent during these down cycles.”
“‘We’ve pretty much hit the peak,’ he said. ‘It was insane. I had my cracker-box home appraised for estate purposes and the appraiser set it at $420,000, as is.’ Bell’s home in Hillcrest has been on the market since Monday for $430,000. His wife bought the home in 1985 for $70,000.”
“‘What always happens is developers see the market jump and they overbuild,’ said Bell.”
“Unlike Lucas, 16-year Big Island Realtor Denise Nakanishi does not foresee any huge changes for the real estate market. ‘I hear people say it’s a buyers market but it’s more even for both sides,’ she said. ‘Nothing has happened to change anything except perception. Prices have receded, but they were too expensive anyway.”
“On the bright side, Lucas said West Hawaii’s growing economic base and strong construction industry supported by high-end real estate may help stabilize the real estate market. Nakanishi agrees with Lucas that a healthy construction industry will prevent any rapid declines.”
“Without these mitigating factors, West Hawaii could face a ‘hard fall,’ Lucas suggested.”
“Lucas recommends that prospective sellers should polish up their property and list the property at five percent lower than the lowest similar property on the market. ‘The bottom line is, you cannot have a vibrant, stable real estate market without jobs that pay well enough for people to purchase real estate,’ said Lucas. ‘When prices exceed the buyers’ ability to pay the mortgage then prices must come down.’”
Nakanishi agrees with Lucas that a healthy construction industry will prevent any rapid declines.”
I would fire her on the spot if she was my realtor
Noone could be that stupid…Im on candid camera(looking around)..right?
Nakanishi agrees with Lucas that a healthy construction industry will prevent any rapid declines.
Who spiked the coconuts? What does she think this healthy construction industry is going to construct when houses stop selling?
Didn’t see your post econo but I’m with you. I just don’t want to believe that this level of stupidity exists.
My relatives see all the new construction going on up here in the Bay Area and they think it proves that RE is still booming and it’s a good time to buy.
They don’t understand that the construction industry is building out the projects they bought land and permits for months ago.
I guess a lot of people won’t believe that things have changed until millions of construction workers are laid off. Should start happening soon.
Any building going up now was just to far into the process to stop. I call them “Dead Men Building”.
“‘We’re looking at a recession,’ said Dave Lucas, a real estate agent since 1985. ‘We follow the mainland and we’re about six months to a year behind. The decline starts on the East Coast and moves west.’”
Huh? This is news to me. Nobody told me yet that a recession has been underway on the mainland for six months now (though any of the major homebuilder stock charts since last August might provide a bit of a hint).
I don’t think Hawaii is “six months to a year behind” this time around. More like they’re out in front of this one.
When the construction layoffs hit big time, that’s when we get a recession on the mainland. It may be happening already, did you see today’s employment report?
‘Nothing has happened to change anything except perception.’ …. “On the bright side, Lucas said West Hawaii’s growing economic base and strong construction industry supported by high-end real estate may help stabilize the real estate market.”….”I had my cracker-box home appraised for estate purposes and the appraiser set it at $420,000, as is.’ Bell’s home in Hillcrest has been on the market since Monday for $430,000.”
Wow, wow, I think all three of them is a’smok’in Maui Wowie.
What are the three rules of a real estate bubble: perception, perception, perception.
Indeed. Diogenes would be impressed - we’ve found an honest realtor!
Lots of Hawaiians come to live here in Vegas, and have for years. They say Hawaii is simply too expensive, and the economy is not good.
I was looking at zipreality’s market conditions page and the Vegas condo market hit me like a Mack truck!
http://ziprealty.typepad.com/marketconditions/las_vegas_real_estate/index.html
Has this been discussed? Huge drops in sales and asking prices combined with a lesser drop in $/sqft.
Folks, I believe we’ve passed the tipping point in Vegas (at least with condos).
Neil
Hi Neil or anyone,
Have a niece who bought a condo as investment in LV. Here’s the address:
6250 W. Arby Ave # 179
Las Vegas, NV 89114-4639
Can anyone tell me how to search for public records on the closing price they paid? Also interested in the current price of a comparable unit. Much appreciate it.
Bought on 2/16/2005 for $220,985, last sale apt. 143 sold for $259,000. Exact same size.
What is even more interesting is the number of sales before December, there were tons of sales one every 5 days within a one mile radius…most of them being in the same complex. Then after 12/15/06 there was nothing until the last sale in 5/10/2006.
They were probably lucky to get $259,000 for it.
Sales back in November and December were in the $280,000 dollar range, if you asked your neice how much her house was worth she would probably tell you $290,000. Possibly more.
http://www.zillow.com is a pretty good sight to pull comps, and check the transaction history.
Neil,
thanks. I will have another address that needs your help in looking up the last sale price. Much appreciate it.
sleepless
which website did you search to get the last sale price?
If you pull comps on Zillow that info should show up…let me check.
Zillow does not have the info yet, the site I use requires a subscription. Sorry.
Neil -
Scroll down to the ‘Downtown Las Vegas, NV Condos - March 2006 MLS Recap’ and you’ll see that the numbers you refer to appear flawed.
If they are flawed that would explain why they aren’t being discussed on this forum. Sigh… Soon. Very soon.
I have no idea how fast the decline will be only that we’ll see it by fall. I just wonder how many people that I know will get burned. Heck, my old mentor bought a place 18 months ago and joked he was continuing his tradition of always buying at the peak (He’s had horrible luck with real estate timing. But he needed a bigger place for a growing family…).
You can almost smell the market is about to break…
Neil
Wow! Sales price dropped 20% in one month.
Sales Price $319,760 $255,723 -20.0%
Tax Rule Could Save Treasury Nominee Millions
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By ERIC DASH
Published: June 2, 2006
Henry M. Paulson Jr., the nominee for Treasury secretary, has a big reason to support tax relief.
Because of a little-known provision in the federal tax code, Mr. Paulson, the departing Goldman Sachs chief executive, could receive a tax break of at least $48 million if he is confirmed.
The tax rule, Section 1043 of the Internal Revenue Code, allows individuals who are forced to sell stock to meet federal conflict-of-interest rules to defer paying capital gains tax, so long as the proceeds are reinvested in government bonds, diversified index funds and other similar instruments. The provision applies only to employees in the Executive Branch (Congressional lawmakers, Supreme Court justices or ordinary taxpayers need not apply) and is intended to “minimize the burden of government service” resulting from a forced divestiture.
If confirmed, Mr. Paulson is expected to give up control of at least $700 million, a fortune built largely from Goldman Sachs stock, by putting those assets in a blind trust. Then, it is likely that Mr. Paulson will be required to sell his Goldman Sachs shares to avoid any conflict of interest. The tax provision, accounting specialists said, represents an opportunity for Mr. Paulson to use the sale to diversify his holdings without paying capital gains tax on the bulk of those Goldman shares, which have almost tripled in value since the investment bank’s initial offering in May 1999.
“If you do that, the gain you diverted from the Goldman sale will never be taxed,” said Robert Willens, an accounting expert at Lehman Brothers. “This has got to be part of the inducement that allows them to take these positions.”
Mr. Paulson’s 3.23 million shares of Goldman stock are worth more than $495 million, based on the most recent regulatory filings and yesterday’s closing price of $153.55 a share. (This does not include the value of his restricted stock units and options, which are generally taxed as ordinary income, not capital gains.)
Assuming conservatively that the most of those shares have a cost basis at or below the initial offering price of $53, he would have roughly $325 million in capital gains, said Brian Foley, an independent compensation consultant in White Plains. Deferring the 15 percent federal tax results in the $48 million break.
“If he simply retired, he would be able to actively manage that account in a robust way,” Mr. Foley said. “If it goes into a blind trust, it will be managed more conservatively. There is a price for the break, and the bottom line is he is giving up the ability to control the investment of those funds.”
Even so, Mr. Paulson has President Bush’s father to thank for the assistance. The special tax deferral was inserted into the Ethics Reform Act of 1989 after the first President Bush urged Congress to pass new laws addressing the significant tax disincentive the required sales seemed to have on high-level executives moving into federal jobs