June 2, 2006

Every Day You See Some Comment About The Bubble

It’s Friday desk clearing time! “Pulte Homes Inc. on Friday slashed its profit outlook for the rest of the year. ‘There’s a lot of inventory and the market’s slowing,’ said portfolio manager Thomas Leritz. ‘Consumer sentiment is negative on housing,’ he added. ‘Every day you look at the newspaper, you read a magazine or watch TV, you see some comment about how the housing market is a bubble.’”

“A group of condominium buyers that bought into a canceled high-rise project have filed a lawsuit against developer Related Las Vegas, saying the company violated the purchase agreements. The lawsuit, filed by 16 buyers from California and Nevada, argues that Related had no right to unilaterally cancel plaintiffs’ purchase agreements.”

From the Washington Post chat. “Alexandria, Va.: My townhouse has been on the market for 40+ days. The asking price was initially $465K, then after several significant reductions, it is now $405K and I simply can’t afford to go any lower. Although I get a lot of foot traffic and good comments from realtors, I’ve had NO offers, not even low-ballers.”

“It seems that the current slowdown has everyone spooked and no one wants to buy, even when it’s a deal. I’m afraid the high ‘Day on Market’ is further scaring people away. What do I need to do to ‘roll back’ the DOM; does the listing have to be off the market for a certain amount of time before the DOM are reset in the MLS?”

“Maryann Haggerty: I don’t know the nitty-gritty on the MLS rules. I bet your agent does, though.”

And from Utah. “The housing market in the Cedar City area has skyrocketed during the past year, and residents may wonder why the home prices have gone up so high. ‘Everyone wants to live here because it’s a nice place,’ stock broker Joe Melling said. ‘People want to get out of places like Las Vegas and California.’”

“‘Seven out of 10 homes here are bought by people from California and Nevada,’ Mayor Gerald Sherratt said. ‘We’re just playing catch up to what’s happening around the country.’”

“‘In Ashland, Ore., rich people from San Francisco and other places in California bought it up and turned it into an exclusive community,’ Sherratt said. ‘The same thing could happen to Cedar City, and it could turn into just a place for the rich.’”

“Q: I’m remodeling a rental home that I plan to sell, but I’m worried that the housing market might go bust before I finish the renovations. Someone suggested I put it on the market before it’s finished, but I’m not sure this is a good idea. What do you think?-Seattle, Washington.”

“A: My advice is finish the renovation as quickly as you can (without botching it, of course) and then get that baby on the market. You’ll want to be especially careful about pricing it, though. Houses that languish on the market because they were overpriced to begin with can be difficult sell. Once buyers see the price being lowered, they figure its better off holding off to see if the price will come down further still.”




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92 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-06-02 14:41:32

Wow, a big week for housing bubble consensus. My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend for news, your market observations and topics.

Comment by JoelnVCCA
2006-06-02 18:07:18

I think this shows the acceptance of the bubble in the media. Now, if they were to truly understand the meaning of this “correction” it would be front page news from coast to sinking coast.

This is NOT just a correction of real estate, but a correction of Americas ongoing addiction to borrow’N spend.

No more will we hear stories of house prices doubling in 3 years because everyone’s wanting to live there, or that there is no ceiling in real estate. There is a proper market for a home, and that is based on the INCOME that is generated by its “owners”.

I have personally known folks buying $850,000 properties at 100% financing on less than 85m a year! Call me prude, but if they were my kids, I still wouldn’t loan out that money!

Lenders will soon take the FICA scores, and use it as a PART of their overall assesment of the risk at hand.

We have been set up America, low interest rates to set a frenzied economy, and a bankruptcy law that will have those tanned, pretty Tahoe drivers negotioting their gas rations with the Justice Department.

Oh well, for those left with the cash, it will be a sweet op to go in and get some true value in the market… and maybe a few SUV’s for 5cents on the dollar.

Let the games begin…

Comment by SeattleMoose
2006-06-03 02:32:23

SUVs? How about a Prius instead.

Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-06-03 05:38:19

There is a bubble in Prius’ as well.

They sell for more used than new. I posted the article last week in the bit bucket.

Just buy a Corrolla/Civic etc it is more cost effective until the mania subsides.

Why pay extra for a car with twice the complexity?

Simple payback on a hybrid at today’s gas prices is 6 years.

In most finance situations unless it is an investment that is core to an organizations mission it wouldn’t get funded.

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Comment by mad_tiger
2006-06-02 14:53:32

The Haggerty discussion was a hoot. Some of those questions were so good I wondered if they were planted.

Comment by DC_Too
2006-06-03 06:05:36

Oh I think that column is loaded with shills, on both sides. There are too many questions that, in court, would be considered “leading the witness,” or setting up a pre-determined answer. It’s fun to read though.

 
 
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-06-02 15:05:23

‘Everyone wants to live here [Cedar City, Utah] because it’s a nice place,’ stock broker Joe Melling said. ‘People want to get out of places like Las Vegas and California.’

Damn. I gotta remember not to be drinking anything when I read this blog. Outta my mouth and nostrils all over the place another keyboard ruined. 20,000 people, $150k houses and $35k household incomes. Leave California for that? ROTFLMAO

Comment by John Law
2006-06-02 15:08:05

the only people leaving LV and Cali to go to a place like that are probably people who grew up there, or somewhere like it.

Comment by iron56
2006-06-02 19:11:09

Actually, if you’re into the outdoors it’s not a bad place. Bryan Head, which is close, is the place for skiing for folks from Vegas (Lee Canyon is a lot closer but pretty pathetic.) And there are lots of fishing lakes, nat’l parks, etc. in the vicinity.

If you’re a big city person, though, you won’t like it. It’s also heavily LDS, which may be an issue for some.

Comment by Max
2006-06-03 07:36:47

I’ve been through there. Very poor town, but has a State College. The Mormons control all the alcohol in the state. Let’s just say you can’t get a decent margarita anywhere in Utah because restaurants can’t sell hard liquor. ‘Nuff said. :)

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Comment by marinite
2006-06-02 15:13:43

That comment (not yours, Robert, the one you quoted about everyone wanting to live in Cedar City) is used by every locality to justify the runnup in prices. It can’t be true everywhere and in all likelihood it is not true anywhere.

Comment by Neil
2006-06-02 16:36:51

Actually, I see a great exodus occuring from Cali. A large group from our work is retiring on a lake in Idaho. Would I ever want to live there? *ell no. But they, as a group, are very happy with their decision. At least the 50% of the group that has “cashed out” of their CA homes. The other 50%, who need a few more years before retirement, might not be as happy when they cannot cash out… :(

But maybe I’m weird… quite a few of my family have gone from big cities (e.g., NYC) and retired on rural lakes. Don’t worry, currently the thought has me chuckling too. (I hate being away from a large city for more than three weeks). But maybe that will change with time.

But I agree, that area is bubbling too.

Neil

Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-02 18:07:45

Comment by Neil
2006-06-02 16:36:51
Actually, I see a great exodus occuring from Cali. A large group from our work is retiring on a lake in Idaho.
__________________________________________________
I bet the natives are just gonna love the urban slime imported from Cal….

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Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-06-02 20:46:48

Californians have been putting up with imported slime for 20 years.

Since immigration is all the debate, we should deport all non-native Californians.

Fouling one place and moving on to foul another place is pretty immature behavior.

 
Comment by CA renter
2006-06-03 01:50:55

Exactly, SSBG!

Native Californians are “fouling up” other states because they are being forced out of their own home state by folks from these very same states (as well as other countries).

Classic “chicken or egg” situation.

 
 
Comment by asuwest2
2006-06-03 07:59:23

seeing the same thing at my office. 1 moving to TX. Another moving his sister to Oregon. Housing prices/tired of LA & tract living. They’re pulling the ripcord while they still can. Quiet conversations with others at work–headed same way.

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Comment by huggybear
2006-06-02 16:40:48

“Everyone wants to live here”

should read..”All the flippers want to flip here”

 
Comment by foobeca
2006-06-02 16:59:38

Cedar City is a little town in the sticks. The equity locusts will not leave any town or city unscathed. What’s the next flipper destination? Elko, NV? Gallup, NM? Vernal, UT? Evanston, WY? Juarez?

Comment by SD_suntaxed
2006-06-02 17:55:28

When Cedar City is patting itself on the back and proclaiming that “everyone wants to live here,” the masses have truly gone mad. I have a cousin who lives there and can’t quite figure out why he stays. It’s mostly just a blip on I-15 with a few truck stops, some fast food places and a whole lot of nothing much.

 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2006-06-03 02:39:49

Round Top, TX. Population 77.

CA flippers bought 100 acres and created the towns first “subdivision” for CA refugees back in 2003. A 20ish married couple (she from India). The locals hate them.

Wait until July when it is 100 deg/100% humid and there is absolutely NOWHERE to go except the local Wal-Mart (25 miles away). And when you go out to water your lawn in CA style sandals the fire-ants bite your feet, and mosquitoes as big as grasshoppers…

Yep, those city folk are just gonna love rural America.

 
Comment by asuwest2
2006-06-03 08:01:12

naw– another guy at work moved his mum to Elko about 6 months ago. North slope of alaska?

 
 
Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 18:23:41

I’m sticking to my comment on California:

Everyone wants to live here. Just not at the same time.

 
Comment by Out at the Peak
2006-06-02 22:47:50

A good friend of mine left CA to move to UT. It’s not the place for me, but it is perfect for him. His number one reason for moving was more reasonable prices. He could have afforded a very nice CA house no problem. That was not good enough for him. He wanted to buy a much bigger house. His savings was hard earned from a salary and actually lost money in RE between 2000 and 2005 near Austin, TX. He saves 50% of his pay and still lives nicely below his means.

His other reasons were very sound. CA is not housemaker mom with kids friendly. His wife was traditional; did not have a job and raised their kids well. Problem was that there are less things for the kids to do around here in comparison, but also the wife wasn’t happy. She wanted to have friends in a similar situation. Jobless and raising a family, but almost all other mothers had jobs. She wasn’t able to gain any real friends.

They visited UT and everything seemed so perfect. Since they moved, they got a HUGE house for $100/sqft and the lifestyle really suits them.

I’ll always miss him.

Comment by flat
2006-06-03 05:10:22

the roads there are sweet - built for Olympics
watch” big love” onHBO for more

 
 
 
Comment by SoCalMtgGuy
2006-06-02 15:06:50

“… even when it’s a deal”

What makes it a deal?? because it not as over-priced as it was 40 days ago???

Remember when $600 a share .com’s looked like ‘deals’ at $450 a share?? Where did they end up???

$405k for a townhome is a LOT of money. Even if you put 20% down and get a 30yr fixed at 6.5%, you are looking at a payment of $2047.90 BEFORE taxes and HOA. You will probably be looking at a payment of 2500-2700 a month for that townhome.

A person would need to make a MINIMUM of 5500-6000 a month with NO other debt to be able to ‘afford’ that place with a 50% debt ratio. Use the more conservative 35% on housing, and the person needs to be making a good 8000-9000 per month. Since most people are making about half of the 100k needed to ‘afford’ that place with a real mortgage, you can see why it will be sitting for much longer than 40 days.

As a side note…I have a friend that has been trying to sell a place in Va beach since November. I have just kept my mouth shut. They had 1 ‘low-ball’ offer that was 60k less than their asking price. After 7 months, you would think you MIGHT want to lower the price substantially.

Have a good weekend!

SoCalMtgGuy

http://www.housingbubblecasualty.com

Comment by say what
2006-06-02 15:44:40

How cool is that, common sense. How is anyone going to buy when they simply don’t have the $$$

 
Comment by Arwen U.
2006-06-02 17:00:04

There’s a “townhome” in Alexandria that fits that description according to the price reductions - 1621 feet in more of a high rise MLS #: AX5509610 - actually on the market for 133 days. It was purchased in 2003 for 279K and is taxed at 426K. The taxes are at least 3K a year and the condo fee is $700 a month. There are 52 units for sale in that building. One rental - 1 bed, 1 bath for $1375 a month.

There are 1,093 listings for sale in Alexandria City and 426 have been reduced (39%).

Comment by Arwen U.
2006-06-02 17:19:47

From January to April 2006, Northern Virginia’s sales volume was 1 billion dollars less than those same months in 2005. I added up the numbers at http://www.mris.com.

Comment by mg
2006-06-02 20:24:28

SFs coming down too. Prince William (NOVA). These have come down more than 100k
Got this mail recently - (BTW - People are trying to sell townhomes for 440-450k in that same community)

PLEASE JOIN US

UNDER THE TENT

For a Family Fun Day Barbecue

~ at New Bristow Village ~

Saturday, June 3rd

12pm - 5pm

Catered by Red, Hot, and Blue!

Moon-bounce,

Face-painting

& Fun Activities for the Kids!

Live Music & Delicious Food!

And most exciting - Special Pricing on our Homes!!!!

Neo-traditional Single Family Floorplans

~ available in the mid $400s ~

SUPERB INCENTIVES!

See you this Saturday under the Beazer Tent!

Andrea Hidalgo & Lori Similo

New Bristow Village Team

(703) 257-2489

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Comment by William
2006-06-04 18:21:23

People should go to this, and listen to all the bla, bla, bla while completely pretending to be excited and on the hook, agreeing with how much of a great deal it is, then just walk out and watch the look on the agents face, it would be crushing, as they would now know there is no longer such thing as a sucker, and they should start looking for other work immediately

 
 
 
 
Comment by bakabeikokujin
2006-06-03 04:00:05

SoCalMtgGuy:
Q. Which metro area in the country has had the biggest explosion in inventory in the last 9 months?
A. (surprise!) In a tie for first place, Phoenix and Virginia Beach!

Have your friend peruse the Housing Tracker site. Tell them that for every place listed last November, there are now THREE. That’s right, 2 competitors they didn’t have when they first listed. Invite them to compare the inventory explosion in HR with the increases in other areas covered by the site. Phoenix is the only other area that compares: that’s right, HR is more bubblicious than anywhere in FL, CA, or NV when it comes to inventory.
Your friend should compare their property with any other 10 or 20 similar properties in Va Beach as listed on realtor.com, and immediately cut their price per square foot to just below the lowest competitor. Otherwise, come autumn, they are going to wish they took that lowball offer!

Comment by flat
2006-06-03 05:13:09

va beach will implode when dems cut MIC
1 less carrier and BAM it’s over

Comment by bakabeikokujin
2006-06-03 06:31:00

Actually, I think it’s already over, and after Labor Day it’s going to get very ugly very fast.
I neglected to tell SoCal to have his friends check out the (realtor-run) HR real estate blog, where they can read the MLS stats showing slower sales this spring than last, in the face of that exploding inventory. And they can take a look at prices on Housing Tracker since early March, which are already declining at the mid and high ends.
Military cutbacks are just the coup de grace (not to mention what would happen if the region took a direct hit from a cat 3 or higher hurricane — those charts of how much of the area would be underwater are pretty scary!)

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Comment by flat
2006-06-03 05:04:26

405 k for a townhose in alex ,va would be in da hood
gov worker land, they can pay up cause no-one ever gets fored

 
 
 
Comment by Brandon
2006-06-02 15:38:15

http://www.realtycenterboise.com/ This kind of crap is perpetuating the bubble here in Boise. This guy has a radio show on Saturdays. He used to be real good by offering advice to first time buyers and tips on finding great deals around the valley like HUD homes. Now he’s a greedy cheerleader for the RE market and his mantra is “buy, buy, buy” and the market is only going to go up.

His site boasts big appreciation in home prices yet fails to mention wages have increased just over 2%- the economy can’t support the house price increases.

Comment by realestateblues
2006-06-02 19:32:40

But everybody wants to live in Boise.

Comment by shel
2006-06-03 06:19:50

somehow, no offense to Boise inhabitants, this comment gave me that sensation of epiphany, but with a sick kinda thud instead of the thrill of sudden understanding….

Comment by ajh
2006-06-03 06:36:28

I reckon your bubble is following the Australian script from 2 years ago here, with places like Boise (Australian analogy = Northern Tasmania) knee-jerking up in price due to the last-gasp buying by big city specuvestors who can’t find any “value” in their own area anymore.

If that’s so, the local inhabitants are going to be among the most annoyed already, as they see their children priced out of their own market because local wage levels cannot support purchasing at the “new, improved” prices.

Same same Cornwall/Devon in England. There are small towns in pretty locations dying there as I write because 60%-70% of the housing is second homes for Londoners; who vote against any new development proposals ‘to preserve the picturesque little community’ they’ve just destroyed.

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Comment by txchick57
2006-06-02 15:41:47

Wonder if retainer for criminal counsel and orange jumpsuit is provided wit this “job”. LOL

http://dallas.craigslist.org/acc/167246120.html

Comment by rudekarl
2006-06-02 16:00:09

“investor friendly” appraisers

I imagine a number of these guys have already been released from prison after the S&L debacle and are ready to get back to work. I’m just glad they’ll be staying locally and helping out the local market. We’ve got a boat-load of new condos going up that will need some “investor friendly” appraisers.

 
Comment by mrincomestream
2006-06-02 16:21:32

Hey, thats a new one what is a “investor friendly” appraiser. Sure would like to see HD74man’s interpretation of that. Maybe he can shed some light.

 
 
Comment by giantaxe
2006-06-02 15:52:42

“We’re just playing catch up to what’s happening around the country.”

… in in being infested with flippers from CA.

 
Comment by giantaxe
2006-06-02 15:55:40

“Every day you look at the newspaper, you read a magazine or watch TV, you see some comment about how the housing market is a bubble”

It’s all a vast anti- real estate crusade!!

Comment by bottomfisherman
2006-06-02 19:43:02

Right (or left?) wing conspiracy? ;-)

 
 
Comment by looking4mee
2006-06-02 15:56:18

‘Housing boom is over,’ analyst says as Pulte is latest home builder to cut outlook
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-06-02-pulte_x.htm?csp=26

Comment by GetStucco
2006-06-02 22:19:40

‘This year “might still end up being the second best year ever,” said Michael Carliner, an economist with the association. Much of the effect from fewer orders shouldn’t show up in this year’s earnings, he said.’

Or it might be the year that a record number of flippers blow up.

 
 
Comment by karl
2006-06-02 15:58:49

report of a builder dissovling in Maricopa Arizona.

http://www.85239.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=3&threadid=4519

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 16:05:03

After the bell SLIME BALLS SPF -

Standard Pac new home orders for April, May down 41%

 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 16:09:05

Lower #’s for SPF –

Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF : Standard Pacific Corp.
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 30.00-0.17-0.56%

6:50pm 06/02/2006

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SPF30.00, -0.17, -0.6%) after Friday’s closing bell said April and May new home orders were 41% lower than during the same period in the prior year. An increase in the home builder’s cancellation rate and softening demand drove the fall, the company said. Therefore, Standard Pacific said it expects to lower its earnings and delivery guidance for the full year

Comment by GetStucco
2006-06-02 22:13:29

Wow! Time to buy some SPF calls early Monday, because they are surely going to rally on this terrible news! (Although something strange happened to PHM today — the stock actually went down on bad news.)

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 16:37:34

Hello

Comment by Cbass
2006-06-02 16:43:08

Hi

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 17:01:25

LOL. I kept trying to post and nothing would not show up.

Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 18:29:57

Nothing doesn’t show up everytime I try to post…

Just ribbin’ ya crisp… ;)

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Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 19:03:33

I need to proof read. UGH!!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 16:38:18

SPF - Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF : Standard Pacific Corp.
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 30.00-0.17-0.56%

8:14pm 06/02/2006

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SPF30.00, -0.17, -0.6%) after Friday’s closing bell said April and May new home orders were 41% lower than during the same period in the prior year. An increase in the home builder’s cancellation rate and softening demand drove the fall, the company said. Therefore, Standard Pacific said it expects to lower its earnings and delivery guidance for the full year

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 16:38:52

Orders DOWN 41% in APRIL and MAY!!!

Comment by flat
2006-06-03 05:08:00

april was FREE garage month for builders= wow 07 is going to sck

 
 
Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-02 16:39:12

I like how they did this on Friday AFTER the market closed

 
Comment by Bruce Dickinson
2006-06-02 16:53:34

Crap, they were on my “short” list……. I have been kicking myself about BHS as well. I was going to short at $50 but the stock’s resilience bothered me. My TOL puts are in the money and up 100%.

Comment by Backstage
2006-06-02 22:25:33

Never, never, ever kick yourself about a good investment you did not make! The only thing to kick one’s self about is a bad investment that you DID make — on impulse.

If you hesitated pulling the trigger there was a reason. Figure out the reason and see if it was valid…If not don’t make that mistake again.

 
 
Comment by buddhaman
2006-06-02 17:59:43

A community by Ryland i’ve been looking at in Tampa (which is very nice actually) went from a waiting list last fall to 20 homes for sale by builder and several dozen completed homes for sale by owners (investors) practically overnight. From what I hear, Ryland has been reluctant to lower prices - think this will hurt them in the long run.

Comment by looking4mee
2006-06-02 18:14:17

How do you like Tampa? I really want to move to FL (I love it there) in a few years when RE is at new lows.

Comment by buddhaman
2006-06-02 18:34:15

I actually live in New York, and am lucky enough to have found a buyer for my co-op at the end (NYC market is over as well - don’t let anyone tell you different) of the market here (took 5 months and I took a not-too-greedy offer - am long time owner - not a flipper). I have been to Tampa often - have relatives there - and find it to be urban enough that I don’t think I will die of sheer boredom - and the prices are cheaper than most other Fla. urban areas. Also - job market is strong and the weather is a bit better than further south. Overall, it reminds me of how Ft. Lauderdale was twenty years ago, before it got totally built out. Been looking at Pasco county (I know - sinkhole central! - and find it ripe for a 20-30% correction on new construction, so I will try to lowball an investor who is trying to bail out there. Looking for 2500 sq. feet for under 300K (preferably $250K)- which was unattainable a year ago, but I see it becoming commonplace with all the inventory and reductions going on currently.

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Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 18:31:05

Thank you thank you thank you!

My puts have been hurting recently. Today was good and Monday looks BETTER!

 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2006-06-02 17:17:41

“Maryann Haggerty: I don’t know the nitty-gritty on the MLS rules. I bet your agent does, though.”

Ever since I found out “nitty-gritty” was black slang for the inside of the vagina, I’ve tried very hard to refrain from using it. And cringe when people do.

Comment by orlandorenter2
2006-06-02 17:35:13

seriously???

Comment by passthebubbly
2006-06-02 17:50:34

I think I read it in a Paul Dickson book, and he knows his stuff. Anyway, doesn’t it just sound like it? Where else could it have come from?

Comment by feepness
2006-06-02 18:36:00

I just googled it. I found nothing similar to that meaning, and the closest thing “nit covered slaves on a slave-ship” was also debunked due to when it appeared. Most likely came from something to do with corn - “grits”.

I admit it… I’m an etymology whore.

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Comment by Backstage
2006-06-02 22:33:45

Ohh Feepness! You like insects, too? ;)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by passthebubbly
2006-06-02 17:39:57

I think I read it in a Paul Dickson book.

Comment by azdan
2006-06-02 20:54:05

If you want the real nitty-gritty on ‘nitty-gritty, read this:
http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-nit2.htm

 
 
Comment by nick
2006-06-02 18:10:34

here comes another earnings revision thanks to SPF…..they tried to sneak it by on friday night…..nice try
Net new home orders for the first two months of the 2006 second quarter were down 41% from the year earlier period, driven in large part by an increase in the Company’s cancellation rate and continued softening of demand in many of the Company’s larger markets. Orders were off in Southern California, Northern California, Florida and Arizona, up in Texas and Colorado and off slightly in the Carolinas. The Company’s gross orders for the first two months of the 2006 second quarter were off 22% versus the year ago period.

In light of the decreased order levels for the first two months of the 2006 second quarter, the Company expects to lower its earnings and delivery guidance for the full year and will provide the updated guidance in conjunction with its regularly scheduled earnings release at the end of July.

Comment by bread liner
2006-06-02 20:47:04

-41% Thats definitely not a soft landing.

Comment by simmsays
2006-06-02 22:56:21

10-20% is a correction. To me, 41% is a crash.

Simmsays…new type of diamond
http://www.americaninventorspot.com

 
 
 
Comment by cwe63108
2006-06-02 21:57:53

““‘In Ashland, Ore., rich people from San Francisco and other places in California bought it up and turned it into an exclusive community,’ Sherratt said. ‘The same thing could happen to Cedar City, and it could turn into just a place for the rich.’”

Wow - really selling the benefits of the word “Rich” - like it meant tatse or something….

 
Comment by GetStucco
2006-06-02 22:17:37

“It seems that the current slowdown has everyone spooked and no one wants to buy, even when it’s a deal. I’m afraid the high ‘Day on Market’ is further scaring people away. What do I need to do to ‘roll back’ the DOM; does the listing have to be off the market for a certain amount of time before the DOM are reset in the MLS?”

This reminds one of why it is not a good idea to swim in shark-infested waters with an open wound. But then the DOM thing is not that hard to rig — What you have to do is to delist it, then list it again, like countless San Diego area sellers have done since last Summer. For instance, the home in my neighborhood which has held upwards of 20 open houses since last summer and put up a “Price Reduced” sign a month ago still has not sold. But I bet it has only been on the market for 20 days or so…

Comment by Out at the Peak
2006-06-03 00:07:58

There should be a rule if a house is delisted, it cannot be re-added for 14 or 30 days. But of course the MLS DB admins don’t care. They take that entry money anyday. Heck, they’d love it more if you relisted everyday. It would have to be a federal law which will never get passed.

 
 
Comment by V1m
2006-06-02 23:02:09

From the Haggerty chat on WaPo:

We had planned on putting the house on the market this spring, but we were selected to be featured on an episode of HGTV’s Designed to Sell and the filming wasn’t going to be until this June…

Well, that just gives it more time to appreciate, doesn’t it.

Which reminds me. My pitches for new, post-bubble HGTV shows…

Weekend Worriers: Couples take turns spinning signs at busy intersections trying to drum up interest in their unsold, overpriced McMansions. It’s thankless work, but crystal meth keeps the energy level high!

House Hunter S. Thompson: Deranged flippers are pried from their foreclosed properties by SWAT teams. Sure, you’re an armed iconoclast, and everbody respects that. Now freeze, sucka! and come out of the house with your, er, ARMs up!

Want Fries With That Design?: Redecorating tips by and for the recently downsized. This week’s tip: save those ketchup and relish packets, because design is all about using the materials at hand to coax creativity out of hiding. Plus, you may not know this, but ketchup is a sustainable material.

Curb Denial: Equity tapped out? DOM in triple digits? Going upside down faster than a porn star? Maybe it’s time to think outside the box! For instance, mirrors can create a feeling of more space in a room; so while you dangle from a noose, it looks like you’re actually wayyyyy up there.

Comment by CA renter
2006-06-03 02:06:03

LOL!! Those were awesome! :)

 
Comment by django
2006-06-03 05:56:18

i love the swat scenario

 
Comment by Waiting in SD
2006-06-03 07:45:41

That was hilarious, nice work.

 
 
Comment by SeattleMoose
2006-06-02 23:34:47

RE “professionals” will end the buyer/seller “standoff” by putting out the word that “you had better lower your price and sell now before it all comes tumbling down”.

Inducing selling via fear is no different than the “blockbuster” (literally the busting up of a city block) tactics invented by RE agents in NY back a half century ago. When a non-anglo family moved into an anglo neighborhood the RE agents would go door to door telling people that “you’d better sell now (and list with me) before neighborhood prices go down”.

This practice was outlawed but it is a historical fact that the term “blockbuster” was invented by the actions of the RE industry.

My point is that the RE industry will help speed-up the crash. In the end they are just “transaction parasites” and will do anything to stimulate the market to “get things moving”.

While as a buyer I welcome the crash sooner than later, the very nature of the RE agent is “slimey” because it is ALL about getting a transaction to occur. And they will do ANYTHING to make that happen. Ethics or “the money”? History has given us that answer many times.

Comment by peterbob
2006-06-03 04:51:43

There’s nothing “slimey” about getting transactions to occur, unless someone has a gun to their head. When a sale takes place in a voluntary market, both the seller and the buyers are better off.

Hurray to RE agents who make that happen! And, like you said, they’re going to help bring prices down more quickly.

 
 
Comment by jmunnie
2006-06-03 04:31:35
Comment by robin
2006-06-03 23:21:14

Great link and comments!

 
 
Comment by Sammy schadenfreude
2006-06-03 05:14:29

“Alexandria, Va.: My townhouse has been on the market for 40+ days. The asking price was initially $465K, then after several significant reductions, it is now $405K and I simply can’t afford to go any lower. Although I get a lot of foot traffic and good comments from realtors, I’ve had NO offers, not even low-ballers.”

I love the smell of desperation in the morning. It smells like VICTORY!

 
Comment by delaware beach man
2006-06-03 05:42:01

There is an auction in Rehoboth Beach tomorrow. I’ll see if I have time to attend.

Comment by robin
2006-06-03 23:31:07

AARP had it as a featured area in their rag, and it met my online profile. They, however, neglected to mention prices. Please advise! Thanks in advance.

 
 
Comment by John in VA
2006-06-03 05:48:30

Good article in the Washington Post today:

Going Up and Not Coming Down: Condo Fees Are Escalating at a Shocking Pace, but Buyers Can Still Be Choosy

“Utilitities and insurance have raised condo fees into a whole new stratosphere”….Before a few years ago, she said, fees mostly increased by 2 to 3 percent a year, just keeping pace with inflation. Now, jumps of 5 to 15 percent are not uncommon…. Property taxes are rising with tax assessments. Condo fee increases add to the budget strain — especially for people who stretched to buy their units or those who are on fixed incomes.

 
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