Bits Bucket for October 2, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Local and National State controlled media: The Government is shutting down!! Oh the humanity!! How will we survive? What is it going to “cost”
the country? It’s those wascilly wepublicans again. Please Obama save us.
The Wall Street shutdown shrug sure ended quickly!
New York Markets Open in: 1:43:42
Pre-Market Indications | Analyst Ratings
Futures: S&P 500 -0.5% DOW -0.4% NASDAQ -0.3%
Stock futures drop over fears of long debt battle
• Next fight loom as Lew warns of exhausting extraordinary measures
Don’t these fools realize the Fed is waiting in the wings with reinvigorated QE3 to offset the negative economic impact of the shutdown?
Dow industrials slide 100 points on shutdown rethink
• Bill Gross kind of admits jump in Treasury yields caught him offguard
Gold traders seem to have caught a whiff of incipient Fed-funded liquidity injections to mitigate the negative economic impact of the shutdown.
Gold prices edges above 2-month low
Wednesday, 2 Oct 2013 | 10:31 AM ET
Gold rose on Wednesday after a 3 percent fall in the previous session to a two-month low, with the dollar declining as investors focused on the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years.
A standoff between President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers forced the U.S. government to begin a partial shutdown on Tuesday. An even bigger battle looms as Congress must raise the debt limit in coming weeks or risk a default that could roil global markets.
Investors have generally taken the view that the U.S. deadlock would prove temporary, but there are growing worries about its implications for talks on raising the U.S. public debt ceiling later this month.
“Gold was expected to get stronger support from the U.S. political shutdown … it is gaining some ground today (but) it is still at risk of further liquidation,” Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said.
Name Price Change %Change Volume
GOLD Gold (Dec’13) 1319.70 2.64% 127954
…
Gold and paper money (both in your own possession): movable, hide-able assets in two diametrically opposed asset classes..
Regardless of the shutdown, the sun will decide to rise in the East as it usually does.
True dat.
You will recall the same was the case throughout the Fall 2008 financial crisis, even as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, and a few other too-big-to-fail (or nearly so) financial corporations blew up.
By giving the Fed more excuses to continue QE3-to-infinity-and-beyond, the shutdown could be very, very good to Wall Street.
And this development, in turn, could help prolong the shutdown. So long as wealthy Wall Street investors aren’t screaming bloody murder, what is the hurry?
HEARD ON THE STREET
Updated October 2, 2013, 10:02 a.m. ET
Fed Up With the Shutdown
Federal Reserve This Time Isn’t Likely to Take a Sanguine View of the Standoff
By JUSTIN LAHART
CONNECT
Investors are using the back-to-back U.S. government shutdowns of the mid-1990s as a guide to how markets and the economy will behave this time around. The Federal Reserve isn’t.
The Fed’s decision against reducing bond purchases when it met two weeks ago hinged on a variety of factors. But the now-realized potential of a shutdown over funding the 2010 health-care law, as well as the coming battle over raising the nation’s borrowing limit, clearly played a role.
“I think that a government shutdown—and perhaps, even more so, a failure to raise the debt limit—could have very serious consequences for the financial markets and for the economy, and the Federal Reserve’s policy is to do whatever we can to keep the economy on course,” Chairman Ben Bernanke said at his postmeeting news conference in mid-September.
…
One reason financial markets have been so blasé about Washington’s latest imbroglio—the S&P 500 is just 2% below the record it hit last month—may be a perception the Fed will step in to support the economy if things get out of hand. Moreover, even if Washington breaks a few windows, global fixed-income investors still think the U.S. would be one of the better houses on a pretty miserable block.
Indeed, Mr. Bernanke’s comments suggest the central bank wouldn’t merely delay winding down its bond-buying program. It could undertake additional action. In that case, investors betting on what many see as an inevitable rise in long-term yields could be caught offside.
…
Sept. 25, 2013, 12:06 p.m. EDT
The Federal Reserve, Washington’s enabler
Commentary: Biggest threat from QE is breakdown of how government operates
By Michael Casey
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — When Ben Bernanke said last week that the threat of a government shutdown “could have very serious consequences for the financial markets and for the economy,” he made it clear that the looming Congressional budget battle influenced the Fed’s decision not to reduce its bond-buying.
What he didn’t mention was his own agency’s role in Washington’s political dysfunction and the deterioration in America’s fiscal reputation that goes along with it.
Few Fed officials would admit it, but the central bank is unintentionally acting as enabler to reckless Congressmen.
In a classic case of unintended consequences, the Fed’s aggressive commitment to easy monetary policy is undermining the check-and-balance role played by two of this country’s most important institutions: the stock and bond markets. Thanks largely to the Fed’s ongoing quantitative easing policies, the stock market is trading just below record highs and 10-year Treasury yields are now far below the 3% level that it almost crossed in the summer. This buoyant mood depletes the market’s ability to send signals to lawmakers about the worth or otherwise of their actions.
…
Few Fed officials would admit it, but the central bank is unintentionally acting as enabler to reckless Congressmen.
Not just congressmen.
‘We are in the middle of an epic credit bubble, in my opinion, the likes of which I haven’t seen in my career in private equity,” Joseph Baratta, The Blackstone Group’s global head of private equity, said Thursday night at the Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst Conference in New York City. “The cost of a high yield bond on an absolute coupon basis is as low as it’s ever been.’
http://hereisthecity.com/2013/09/28/blackstone-were-in-an-epic-credit-bubble/
“Unintentionally” ???
“‘We are in the middle of an epic credit bubble, in my opinion, the likes of which I haven’t seen in my career in private equity,” Joseph Baratta, The Blackstone Group’s global head of private equity, said Thursday night at the Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst Conference in New York City.”
Yes, and for how long can this go on? It has been more than 10 years. Can this sort of bubble last 100? I mean, this thing has legs like I’ve never seen.
‘It has been more than 10 years.’
What’s happening in junk bonds hasn’t been going on that long.
“The cost of a high yield bond on an absolute coupon basis is as low as it’s ever been.’
Must be because we’re in a period of incredibly low risks across the board…
(ducks)
A 6 month shutdown would starve the corrupt government housing financing racket quit nicely.
Starve the housing racket and racketeers.
Can you think of a way to starve the housing racketeers that doesn’t hurt non-racketeers?
Who are they?
Renters, honeypot. Racketeered high house prices will give landlords an excuse to keep rents high regardless of demand. Renters will feel the rent increase even if they don’t want to buy.
The only way to “starve” the racketeers is for everyone, and I mean everyone, to move out of the cities, buy a plot of land, build a PimpShack at $55/sq ft with solar panels and a well, withdraw from the system, and hope they don’t need medical care in the future. Yes, a few individual have done this, but in order to be effective, everyone would have to do it.
“Racketeered high house prices will give landlords an excuse to keep rents high regardless of demand. Renters will feel the rent increase even if they don’t want to buy.”
So many folks bought into the rent-to-own nonsense that there is going to be a glut of rentals which will make it cheaper to rent than to own for decades to come.
So the only option is to drug up like you or drop out?
The same old logical fallacy… the same old hopelessly dishonest Debt Junkie.
My landlord just notified us that she’s…..keeping the rent the same, which isn’t high for the area (a few hundred under average per mo, actually). She remembers the legions of people she interviewed before us that (a) couldn’t come up with first/last (b) had horrible credit (c) couldn’t pay (d) didn’t take care of the place (e) called her about every little issue.
She’s smart.
In fact, now that I think about it, I should ask for a reduction.
Is the shutdown anticipated to have any effect on consumer spending (= 70 pct of U.S. economic activity)?
Shutdown Sends Shivers Amid Sustained U.S. Auto Sales
By Keith Naughton - Oct 1, 2013 9:01 PM PT
Business is booming at Beau Boeckmann’s Ford (F) showroom in southern California, with buyers snapping up Fusion sedans they compare to Aston Martins. Just don’t ask how the government shutdown might influence sales.
“I don’t know with this government shutdown; now you’ve got me all freaked out,” Boeckmann said in an interview yesterday from his dealership in North Hills, California. “I don’t think it will have an impact on us unless it lingers on and starts affecting people personally.”
On a day when automakers reported resilient September sales — on a pace for the best year since 2007 — a shiver ran through the industry as it contemplated the impact a prolonged Washington standoff could have on showroom traffic.
Deliveries slipped 4.2 percent for the first decrease in more than two years, as a quirk in the calendar pushed results of Labor Day promotions into August’s results. The annualized selling rate, adjusted for seasonal factors and the short month, rose to 15.3 million, slower than August’s pace. Executives said the fragile recovery can’t take too much uncertainty.
“Any type of disruption in government operations would adversely affect government spending, business and consumer confidence, and financial markets,” Jenny Lin, a senior economist at Ford Motor Co., told reporters and analysts.
…
Boeckmann shouldn’t get his panties in a bunch since the fed is buy their “pure chit” 8-yr loans for low 500-FICO buyers. Welfare.
I have been contemplating a new car purchase. The prospect of having a car payment is unappealing to me. The shutdown increases that. If my job goes away in the next couple of years, I don’t want to have a car payment.
“…Fusion sedans they compare to Aston Martins…”
wtf? As Ripple is to Chateau Margaux maybe….
That was my take away as well. Maybe I should test drive a Fusion to see what I’ve been missing…
This implies you drove Aston Martins before, right Sleepless?
The fanciest car I drove costs less than $30,000 (priced in today’s dollars) unfortunately.
Sign of the 1%: The other day I was driving in Northern Virginia. Right next to one of the future Silver Line metro stations was an Aston Martin dealership. Silly me, I didn’t know that there was enough demand for Aston Martins to warrant a dealership, with in-stock cars on the lot. Silly me, I imagined that one had to order them special, like from a private showroom.
p.s. The other day I did see a black Tesla on the road. It looks like a cross between a Prius and a Corvette.
It was like summer here the past two days here in Maine. Currently 79 degrees outside. Warmer weather definitely affects my mood.
The fed shutdown seems like a distraction. Of course, people’s paychex are in limbo but do you expect the government to be fair? I just can not feel gloomy about things just yet. This weather helps forget problems. Is that possible?
The other day I did see a black Tesla on the road. It looks like a cross between a Prius and a Corvette.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Followed a Tesla S for a while over lunch today. Always driven by men for all the ones I’ve seen in the past. Today was the first one that looked like it might be being used for trophy wife transportation. Still had the temp tag.
We have a few AM dealers down here in S. FL. They are typically coupled with other lux brands (Jag and RR are sold at the one near my house). And yes, they have a lot of cars on the lot, ready to drive off today.
We were coming out of a business the other day when my husband caught me looking over at a rather fine looking car a younger kid had jumped out of and was showing it off to the store’s owner. Hubby was all out of sorts loading up our 10 year old vehicle while the youngin’ showed up sporting a shiny new Maserati. Suggesting he was driving Daddy’s car didn’t seem to help the mood.
‘We have a few AM dealers down here in S. FL. They are typically coupled with other lux brands (Jag and RR are sold at the one near my house). And yes, they have a lot of cars on the lot, ready to drive off today.
I knew I was not in Kansas anymore when a few years ago I was in Sarasota and parking in the parking garage for a Whole Foods and a Rolls Royce pulled up next to us to park and the occupants who exited looked like a Mazzy Star and a Jack Albertson. Just a grocery getter for some folks in that region?
Those cars depreciate like crazy. “Normal” people can buy one used once they are a few years old. Some like to do that in order to appear wealthy. But it can be difficult to keep them on the road…which is part of why they depreciate so fast. I was concerned my wife’s highly depreciated 2006 Mercedes would fall into that category, but it has not been difficult to keep on the road so far and I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the cost of parts and labor for it. I don’t think I would be so pleasantly surprised trying to get an English high end luxury car worked on.
Only a healthy dose of lackofmoney will cause that.
Yep….
Disappointed Obamabots wake up to find they have to pay a fee for not having health insurance
http://poorrichardsnews.com | october 1, 2013
Twitter is blowing up right now with tweets from disappointed Obama voters who woke up this morning and realized that instead of getting “affordable healthcare,” they instead have to pay a fee for not having insurance.
they instead have to pay a fee for not having insurance ??
But that same person would be front and center at the free local county hospital for emergency care now wouldn’t they…
Pshaw…teabaggers only get sick when they have insurance. Jesus takes care of them when they don’t.
Jeebus heals ‘em when they get sick, too.
I applied yesterday and waited in queue for nearly forty minutes to sign up. Over 2.8 MILLION other Americans did the same — on the first day it was offered.
Guess buying mandated insurance is a lot more popular with “the American People” than the party pundits might like, huh?
BTW: I switched from my 30+ year private payer account and saved myself a BOATLOAD of money for far better coverage. Opps, there goes another talking point….
Glad to hear that ahansen. It’s always nice to have my cynicism trimmed back a tad.
Those are the most obvious fake plant tweets I’ve seen so far. Since when did ANYone call it a “fee?” It’s been referred to as a penalty, an emergency room tax, a mandate, health-insurance-that-the-gummint-is-forcing-me-to-buy, you could even call it a bare-bones public option. But not a “fee.”
My new pet set of DVD’s is Ken Burns documentary on the National Parks. Early Parks were fought tooth and nail by business interests, to the point where several Presidents Roosevelt and Wilson had to stretch the Antiquities Act to keep a few Parks from being destroyed. Now the Parks are considered so high-profile that they are the first thing everybody wants re-funded. Ironic…
The shutdown is the nail in the coffin for the tourist economy in Estes Park this season. With the flood damage from last month, there is one main route in and out of town (Trail Ridge Road over the Continental Divide will be closing for the winter soon), and with RMNP closed, there isn’t much reason to drive up there.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_24217368/beleagured-estes-park-acutely-feels-pain-parks-indefinite
It’s been a tough year for RMNP. We were lucky enough to get up there for a vacation last year, before it got hammered by rains and Congress.
RMNP was the first park we visited on what has become an annual national park vacation. I want to go back when in better shape for some of the higher elevation day hikes. We stayed in Estes Park and really enjoyed the town. Very sorry its people have been hard hit this year by disasters both natural and man-child made.
Still bitter about not getting into Onwentsia?
I renewed my RMNP pass in August. For $40 in annual rent, I get a 265,761 acre backyard to play in. Hope the closed roads are reopened in time to get in some backcountry skiing…
In 2 weeks I will file my US taxes. My accountant is halfway to the park and it saddens me I won’t have a visit to “my” national treasure to soften the blow of the $$ outlay.
BUT I’ll have at least 3 more years without the spectre of a serious illness sucking away my life’s work. That should count for something.
Quite frankly I’m surprised our host is so sanguine about going without insurance. But I guess he’s protected his assets in a LLC. The thought of being responsible for one’s own debts must seem so quaint and old fashioned.
Lucky you, goonster. You’ll have it all to yourself this season.
Early Parks were fought tooth and nail by business interests ??
Remember back in 2009 or so when those same Vultures wanted to Privatize & sell the National Parks to generate revenue to to the government…
I do know this.
In EVERY bankrupt city/state the public unions have demanded that the cities sell off every last asset (water, power, parks, revenue from parking meters, revenue from lotteries, real estate, parks, art, etc.) before they even think of taking less in their insane pensions.
It is in the news everyday. Go see Detroit.
Greece has already openly discussed selling islands and national treasures to pay their debt (most of which goes to their own bloated bureaucracy and the their own FSA).
Who buys it? the 1%ers.
Here is the equation.
There will be NOTHING left to start over with after insane spending, insane debts and insane fiscal policy finally comes to an end.
It will all be owned by the 1%ers.
Bigger and bigger government with higher and higher taxes with more and more regulation does not solve this. Ever.
“…before they even think of taking less in their insane pensions.
It is in the news everyday. Go see Detroit.”
Isn’t pension theft illegal?
Who pays you to come on blogs in order to disinform the public on this?
Fact#1 - The largest creditors of Detroit are the public unions.
Fact#2 - So far - they public unions have declared they expect Detroit to pay everything they have been promised
The public union mindset is that they do not care if property taxes go to infinity, they do not care if every penny collected in taxes go to pension (and all city services are cut) and they do not care if every city assets is sold.
F*ck you - Pay me. (see Goodfellas)
——————–
Detroit’s Assets: What Could Be Sold
WSJ - Jul 19, 2013 - David Benoit
Detroit cannot be forced to liquidate by a judge, it being a city and all, but the assets it owns could indeed be put up for sale to help make up its roughly $18 billion in liabilities.
Just as Greece selling the Acropolis has often been discussed, Detroit may face calls to sell, say Joe Louis Arena, home of the Detroit Red Wings.
Artwork – This has been among the more heated debates leading up to the bankruptcy filing. The city owns the Detroit Institute of Art, a collection started in 1885 and includes Vincent van Gogh’s “Self Portrait” and Diego Rivera’s “Detroit Industry” mural as well as August Rodin’s famous “The Thinker,” which graces the steps leading to the museum.
Detroit Water and Sewerage Deportment – The operations provide water services to about 4 million total people. Several cities in recent years have looked at selling off water supplies, including Milwaukee.
The zoo – Detroit’s zoo is a 125-acre natural habitat for more than 3,300 animals. Detroit wouldn’t be alone in cities looking to privatize its zoo, Dallas City Council in 2009 decided to turn over the management of its zoo to the private Dallas Zoological Society and Seattle also privatized its zoo in 2002.
Belle Isle – Another municipal parks property that could theoretically be sold, this 982-acre park in the Detroit River, houses what was the oldest-continually running aquarium in the country before it closed for a few years last decade.
Fort Wayne – A historic site on the Detroit River that currently houses a fort built in 1848 which the city had stated taking over in 1948.
Isn’t pension theft illegal?
It’s not illegal when it is restructured as part of a bankruptcy.
See the PBGC, for example… I have a friend who got his pension replaced with something like 25-cents on the dollar through them.
Once the PBGC assumes your pension liability, you are basically hosed for life.
“Artwork – This has been among the more heated debates leading up to the bankruptcy filing. The city owns the Detroit Institute of Art, a collection started in 1885 and includes Vincent van Gogh’s “Self Portrait” and Diego Rivera’s “Detroit Industry” mural as well as August Rodin’s famous “The Thinker,” which graces the steps leading to the museum.”
I’m sure this artwork makes gawd’s children salivate.
Looters will loot.
Connecting the Dots
Matt Taibbi on Wall Street’s Campaign to Loot Public Pensions
September 30, 2013
by Joshua Holland
“Five years ago this fall, an epidemic of fraud and thievery in the financial-services industry triggered the collapse of our economy,” writes Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi. “Today, the same Wall Street crowd that caused the crash is not merely rolling in money again but aggressively counterattacking on the public-relations front. The battle increasingly centers around public funds like state and municipal pensions.”
…
looted pensions?
gov workers especially the 800,00 watching tv now get to retire in their 50 w hc. What are you getting?
You get to pay for it.
HUN-ARG- and Portugal have robbed private pensions so they can keep spending
2b, only you could take a thread about national parks and turn in into a rant against public unions.
gov workers especially the 800,00 watching tv now get to retire in their 50 w hc. What are you getting?
So, you’re envious.
“HUN-ARG- and Portugal have robbed private pensions so they can keep spending”
Are you advocating this as a policy?
Did you read the article? You are being suckered into a PR campaign by vultures against your fellow citizens. We should be seeking ways to claw back the money from the vultures.
Less pension payments to the union rank-and-file means more money for the 0.1%.
This looting principle is really simple — even a complete moron should be able to understand it.
The looting principle.
You are forced to join a public union as a CONDITION on employment
You are forced to pay dues to a public union as a CONDITION of employment
Public unions support democrats 99-1 with their campaign contribution.
Public unions –> elected democrats who promise sweetheart public union contracts –> raise property taxes to pay for the contracts –> less money the average property owner has for anything else –> eventually drives the city/county/state into bankruptcy –> public unions blame everyone else except themselves
Hey look at that. Not one 1%er even entered into the equation (except to buy city assets at pennies on the dollar in bankruptcy)
Wait, The Thinker is displayed outside?
I’m sure that there are a lot of Gawd’s kids who would salivate over that. The museum must guard it day and night.
[I assume it's the real Thinker and not a cast or copy, or else it wouldn't have any resale value. Although, I did read that, ironically, there is no monetary incentive to steal famous works of art. Famous pieces are "priceless" in that no one wants to buy them. Who's going to buy famous art if they can't display it? Anyone who saw the piece in your collection would report you. I guess it would work if you a Bond villain who wanted it for an underground collection...]
“2b, only you could take a thread about national parks and turn in into a rant against public unions.”
He’s completely gone insane, I think.
rand paul speaks out on government goons:
‘if harry reid and the president want to keep the parks closed — i mean did you read the story today? some idiot in government sent goons out there to set up barricades, so they couldn’t see the monument.’
paul’s attack comes after reports that a group of world war ii veterans had to break down barricades to access the national world war ii memorial, one of the sites that was closed due to the government shutdown.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/wwii-memorial-rand-paul-97708.html?hp=l6
Why did the administration close monuments on the national mall with barricades that are essentially open 24/7 all year?
The same reason he closed the White House tours.
It has nothing to do with saving money.
It is to make people mad at the republicans.
…and the idiots make it so easy for him. It’s gonna be hilarious reading you cry about president Hillary.
‘A prolonged government shutdown risks hampering US mortgage lending, derailing a nascent recovery in the country’s housing market and making it harder for borrowers to secure home loans. The partial government closure, which entered its second day on Wednesday, makes it difficult for banks to check borrowers’ personal data or secure government guarantees, restricting lenders’ ability to process mortgage applications.’
‘Banks said they were also worried about payments on existing mortgages. At least one big lender has set up a dedicated phone line to handle queries from federal workers who may not be paid for an extended period.’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e262a22a-2b74-11e3-a1b7-00144feab7de.html#axzz2ganfk8lY
‘At least one big lender has set up a dedicated phone line to handle queries from federal workers’
It’s been 2 days and they’ve got a hotline?
A prolonged government shutdown risks hampering US mortgage lending
Ooooo, now there’s a silver lining I hadn’t thought of.
“….they got a hotline?”
If it was me, I’d have started setting one up a couple of weeks ago.
Believe it or not, some people plan ahead for likely contingencies.
Apparently the nascent housing recovery is critically dependent on members of the federal workforce buying houses. Why else would they setup a hotline* one day after the shutdown?
* Follow-on question: Will private government contractors staff the hotline, or will they man it with federal workers whose positions are deemed essential?
“…hotline…”
You can’t make this stuff up.
When you call the hotline, Batman shows up with mortgage papers.
Bob w/one O?
Personal insults directed at me make me laugh. Read it and weep.
“the worst healthcare system of any high-income country. It is a form of serfdom”
ft.com
The Republicans are doing all of this in order to impede a modest improvement in the worst healthcare system of any high-income country. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (known as “Obamacare”) is modelled on one introduced in 2006 in Massachusetts by then governor Mitt Romney. Its apparently criminal aims are to cover 32m uninsured people and ensure coverage of those with pre-existing conditions. True, the programme is complex. But it builds on a defective system. That most working people get insurance through their employers is an obstacle to labour market flexibility since it complicates decisions about leaving a job, particularly for people with chronic medical conditions. It is a form of serfdom.
“Personal insults directed at me”
You are a commie, you spit your gum on sidewalks, and you fart in elevators
‘Personal insults directed at me’
I’m sick of this obama blab troll stuff. Take it over to CNN. Everybody here has said all they can say. This is the housing bubble blog.
Deletions and bannings will begin. You’ve been warned.
“…obama blab troll…”
“Everybody here has said all they can say…”
…but not everyone has had a chance to say it yet.
Rather, about three or four posters say it OVER AND OVER AND OVER again every time they are permitted to post.
How has anyone who has wanted to say anything been stopped from posting? Everyone seems more than able to pipe up when it strikes their fancy. When some seem to just be trolling and blatantly obviously doing it to just rehash what they’ve said a million times already, and not even tied to any new news or articles, then I say ban em baby. At least for a little while.
I’m sick of this obama blab troll stuff. Take it over to CNN. Everybody here has said all they can say. This is the housing bubble blog.
Funny how you tolerate right wingers like 2banana and his never ending complaints about public union goons.
Funny how you pimp, apologize for and insinuate that nothing can be done about the corrupt power structures.
The only thing the average Joe can do against corrupt power structures is leave. If he can.
That’s why you hear so many business owners/managers/USA is the greatest country in the world types saying: “If you don’t like it, get the eff out”
I’ve not been posting much of late for a reason — which has nothing to do with alpha, joe, or Rio, whose posts are generally thought-provoking, original, and remarkably constrained considering all the ad hominem attacks directed against them. If they go, I’ll (regretfully) be with them.
This blog will go on, of course, but what’s to be gained from limiting it to posters who do nothing but parrot the same stale talking points and deliberately provocative rhetoric over and over and over and over and over and over and over…?
‘limiting it to posters who’
All I said was I’m sick of the obamacare stuff. Jeebus, this is like herding cats.
‘alpha, joe, or Rio, whose posts are generally thought-provoking, original, and remarkably constrained’
Now your being a comedian.
No, I’m entirely serious. Whether I agree with them or not, they consistently present thoughtful commentary and reasoned argument — as do Neuro, mathguy, MacBeth, and when he’s on his meds, Darrell. All of which I find very useful in sorting out my own opinions and commentary.
One thing I’ve always appreciated about your blog is the diversity of opinion and personal experience. It’s the lack of civility and factually discredited hackery that I have a problem with.
You mean that “its impossible to build a house for $55/sq ft” hackery? That hackery?
I’m with you 100%.
“Deletions and bannings will begin”
Will you delete and ban posters on all sides of the argument? Or will you permit only viewpoints you agree with?
Many of the discussions are pointless and predictable and add nothing to the blog.
I recall a simple rule here…. no pimping.
I’m just sick of the obamacare thing. We had around 300 comments on it yesterday and I think we’ve fleshed out how everybody feels about it. I don’t have time to slog through that many comments everyday.
Want to expose the housing crime syndicate?
Go to thehousingbubbleblog.com
Want to squeal about other things?
Go to ObamaCareBitchBox.com
Sincerely,
Management
“I’m just sick of the obamacare thing”
Banning entire subjects seems reasonable.
“ObamaCareBitchBox.com”
Hopefully 2banana will take the hint and set up his new blog under that handle.
2B is doing the right thing. 2B doesn’t hold the power.
Will you delete and ban posters on all sides of the argument? Or will you permit only viewpoints you agree with?
Based on past performance I think we know the answer to that question.
Oh please on aggregate this site is full of people with left of the center point of view. Outside of 2banana, who’s here so blatantly republican? There are two many overtly democrats in this blog and you know who you are.
good point.
“Based on past performance I think we know the answer to that question.”
Hey Ben….. your “past performance” is unacceptable to someone here. Shape up or ship out Ben Jones.
I gave up trying to keep everybody happy about one day after I turned comments on in 2005.
I gave up trying to keep everybody happy about one day after I turned comments on in 2005.
“on aggregate this site is full of people with left of the center point of view.”
I guess if you think you are the center, that would be your impression.
We talked another out of buying a house yesterday. Actually the discussion occurred 3 weeks ago but he got the contract cancelled yesterday.
I know of a house here in Salinas that went on the market and had three bids the first weekend on listing. One bid, full price with 20
% down; one bid 5K lower but 20% down; one bid 5K lower 3% down FHA. The owners asked for best offers on the review of bidding. The lower of the 20% bidders walked away; the other two upped their offers to 6K above full asking price. And the lucky winner…the 3% FHA on a 591K loan. That means that after a payment or two the new owner can stop paying and live rent free for three to five years thanks to the government. A reasonable price for that neighbourhood would be 400K tops.
I know of a perfect diamond. It’s manmade, by GE. And there is only one in the universe.
the 3% FHA on a 591K loan ??
A reasonable price for that neighborhood would be 400K tops ??
Well, if you are correct then the agreed upon sales price is “mute” because the property will not appraise for that much and the buyer cannot overcome the loan to value underwriting with 3% down…
But prices are going up 25% a year, so surely in 4 years it will be worth twice as much.
“A reasonable price for that neighbourhood would be 400K tops.”
I wouldn’t pay $400k for Steinbeck’s former place. Salinas? Really?!
Wanna understand why the government and central bank run this racket? http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/
And the lucky winner…the 3% FHA
Maybe I’m missing something but I’d consider the “loss” of 6k as a sort of insurance that the 20% down offer would be the stronger offer. FB meets FS.
I didn’t think FHA did jumbo’s?!?!!? Sad.
Anyone who buys in upstate NY right now is nuts. I see a few sold signs, usually struggling little places or houses already empty so I assume the flippers have moved in. CNYhomes.com has cleared 6000 listings. I think during the whole 2007/8 fiasco the count didn’t get much higher than that and in October 1st I’m still seeing brand new listings come on. Then there’s the auctions I’m seeing in multiples of higher numbers. Something’s definitely percolating in NY.
Which side of the aisle is winning the shutdown war for the hearts and minds of the American people?
Staunch Group of Republicans Outflanks House Leaders
Doug Mills/The New York Times
Speaker John A. Boehner on Tuesday at the Capitol. He has found himself defied by outspoken House conservatives.
By JONATHAN WEISMAN and ASHLEY PARKER
Published: October 1, 2013 306 Comments
WASHINGTON — They have had their fleeting moments on cable television. Their closed-door run-ins with Speaker John A. Boehner spill occasionally into the pages of Capitol Hill newspapers. But outside their districts, and sometimes even within them, few have heard of the conservative cadre of House Republicans who have led the charge to shut down the government.
In contrast to 1995, when Speaker Newt Gingrich led his band of “revolutionary” Republicans into the last battle that shuttered the federal government, this time a small but powerful group of outspoken conservative hard-liners is leading its leaders — and increasingly angering a widening group of fellow Republicans.
“We’ve passed the witching hour of midnight, and the sky didn’t fall, nothing caved in,” said Representative Steve King, Republican of Iowa, who still believes Republicans can achieve “the end of Obamacare.” “Now the pressure will build on both sides, and the American people will weigh in.”
Mr. King is part of a hard-core group of about two dozen or so of the most conservative House members who stand in the way of a middle path for Mr. Boehner that could keep most of his party unified while pressuring the Senate to compromise. Their numbers may be small, but they are large enough to threaten the speaker’s job if he were to turn to Democrats to pass a spending bill that reopened the government without walloping the health law. Their strategy is to yield no ground until they are able to pass legislation reining in the health care law; if the federal government stays closed, so be it.
And they believe they are winning.
“It’s getting better for us,” said Representative Raúl R. Labrador, Republican of Idaho. “The moment where Republicans are least popular is right when the government shuts down. But when the president continues to say he’s unwilling to negotiate with the American people, when Harry Reid says he won’t even take things to conference, I don’t think the American people are going to take that too kindly.”
Representative Jeff Duncan, Republican of South Carolina, also did not flinch.
“We feel strongly enough” to hold the line, he said. “I was elected in 2010. I feel Obamacare is shutting down America.”
…
For their base, the people who elected them, they are doing what they were sent to Congress to do. Yes, they are winning… moderate Republicans and RINO’s like John McCain will suffer in the next mid-term election, but I think Tea Party types will do just fine.
“moderate Republicans and RINO’s like John McCain will suffer in the next mid-term election, but I think Tea Party types will do just fine.”
The breaking point will be when moderate Republicans leave the Republican party. At that point, Republicans will lose control of the House. There aren’t many swing districts left, but there are enough to flip control.
Finally science proves what we knew all along: The left are genetically inferior.
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/01/are-our-political-beliefs-encoded-in-our-dna/
We hear about how demographics will slowly turn the country blue but I think it’s just pablum to give them a false hope. Nobody respects the left and their generally lower IQ will prevent them from ever organizing a meaningful challenge to the right who know how to seize power and use it. Check it out, 1/2 of 1/3 of the government is calling the shots. Remember when the Dems were in the same position back in 2003 and they couldn’t do squat to affect the government. Compare then to now. Did you see how the GOP just turned the government shut down of the WWII monument to a big political win for the Republicans. Next up will be a repeal of the medical device tax, a key source of revenue for the AHC law. Every time I hear about that tax the first thing that come to my mind are the free fat-scooters on TV or the $500 walkers they pass out at Medicare.
“…repeal of the medical device tax, a key source of revenue for the AHC”
If I recall correctly, there is a tax on house sales which goes towards funding the AHC as well that seems to have been forgotten/buried. Anyone remember the details of that?
I found it. More “eat the rich” stuff.
http://www.factcheck.org/2010/04/a-38-percent-sales-tax-on-your-home/
…a new 3.8 percent tax on the net investment income of high-income persons…..only those with incomes over $200,000 a year ($250,000 for married couples filing jointly) will be subject to it. And even for those who have such high incomes, the tax still won’t apply to the first $250,000 on profits from the sale of a personal residence — or to the first $500,000 in the case of a married couple selling their home.
Which side of the aisle is winning the shutdown war for the hearts and minds of the American people?
Repubs are slitting their throats. For a battle they won’t win.
Polls: Americans put more blame on GOP for shutdown
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/09/30/government-shutdown-blame-republicans-polls/2897197/
More than six in 10 Americans, or 63%, disapprove of the way the GOP is handling the budget impasse that could force the first government shutdown in 17 years, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
….Obama does the best when it comes to acting like a “responsible adult” in the CNN/ORC poll: 49% of Americans choose that phrase to describe his behavior. Only one in four Americans say Republicans are acting responsibly, and 35% say that about Democrats in Congress.
the people do not want obamacare, plain and simple.
Especially those who have gotten their misinformation about it from the right wing noise machine.
And the people who wanted single-payer or a public option.
Unless the phones in Congress are ringing off the hook with people saying how terrible the shutdown is, it ain’t gonna matter. Is there anyone at the switchboard or are they non essential?
I think there isn’t as much outcry because everyone knows here will be back pay like always so it is really just an inconvenient paid vacation for most. Seems like all those federal employee unions aren’t doing a very good job with disinformation.
The media side.
its nice congress exempted itself from obamacare.
They also prudently exempted themselves from pay cuts during the shutdown.
Breaking News
Congress Gets Salaries Even During Government Shutdown
October 01, 2013
More than 1 million federal workers either will not get paid or will have their salaries delayed during the government shutdown. But those responsible for closing the government still will get their full salaries and on time.
In one of the ironies of the U.S. political system, paychecks for senators and representatives are guaranteed by law…..and the law cannot be changed except by amending the U.S. Constitution.
And any pay cuts would apply only to the next Congress…..not the current Congress.
…
Which side of the aisle is winning the shutdown war for the hearts and minds of the American people?
Be patient. We’ll find out eventually. Bill Clinton may have just been lucky when he had his shutdown confrontation with Gingrich 18 years ago. We can’t say at this point who will be lucky.
A fortnight ago, Golden Dawn was feeling smug. Greece’s neo-Nazi party was riding high in the opinion polls at about 15%, double what it got in last year’s election.
Its support was soaring among a nation buckling under its worst financial crisis in living memory. It had opened new offices, lectures it hosted presenting the party’s view of Greek history were proving popular, its 18 MPs appeared untouchable.
But Pavlos Fyssas changed all that. A left-wing hip hop musician and activist, he had spent the evening watching football on TV in a bar near Athens. As he left, he was set upon by a group. The man arrested for stabbing him to death confessed to being an active supporter of Golden Dawn.
The murder prompted a national outcry. Tens of thousands took to the streets, demanding that the violent neo-Nazis be reined in.
And then, in a weekend morning raid, the government sprang into action. Some 22 members were arrested, six of them MPs, including the party leader Nikos Mihaloliakos. They were charged with belonging to a criminal group, with counts including murder, assault and money-laundering.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24363776
Drastic public spending cuts in Greece are having severe consequences for public services including education. With teachers and students now taking direct action, some universities are warning that a whole semester could be written off.
Last Monday was no ordinary school day for 17-year-old Enea Tola.
At 06:00, Enea and several other senior students climbed the fence of their school and locked the doors. They informed the principal that the students had taken over the school in central Thessaloniki, Greece’s second city.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24332586
A country going to hell in a handcart.
What is the difference between a Communist and a National Socialist (Nazi)?
How do you save democracy by arresting and making illegal an opposition party in the democracy?
How do you save a country with massive debts and a huge government by taking on more debt and making the government even bigger?
And finally…
Why doesn’t Greece just raise their debt ceiling and SOLVE all their problems?
Why doesn’t Greece just raise their debt ceiling and SOLVE all their problems?
They already tried that–but eventually the global markets refused to raise their debt ceiling.
Greece doesn’t have a reserve currency.
they don’t have a central bank to buy their on bonds.
“they don’t have a central bank to buy their on bonds.”
I’m sure Bernanke has already purchased a stack of their bonds in banker’s conspiracy deal. We’re all in this together now since the world’s bankers gleefully took turns tapping the Greeks tailpipe until insolvency happened.
Greece is in the EU.
Where is Walter White when you need to take down a neo-Nazi group?
What does Greece do for a GDP again?
1) Tourism
2) Olive oil exports
3) Shipping
4) ?
The Housing Collapsometer is rising…..
Would a protracted shutdown kill the nascent housing recovery?
BREAKING NEWS ECB Keeps Rates at Record Low as Europe Recovers
U.S. Government Shutdown Threatening Housing Recovery
By John Gittelsohn, Prashant Gopal & Nadja Brandt - Oct 1, 2013 9:00 PM PT
A U.S. government shutdown will immediately slow approval of thousands of mortgages. If it lasts more than a week, it threatens housing and the broader economic recovery.
Congress forced the first partial government closure in 17 years after failing to pass a budget, meaning borrowers in the process of obtaining home loans could be delayed as lenders are blocked from verifying Social Security numbers and accessing Internal Revenue Service tax transcripts.
The process may also lengthen the wait for borrowers seeking approval for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration because its fulltime staff is now less than a tenth of its normal size and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which backs mortgages in rural areas, won’t take on new business during the shutdown.
“The last thing we need is anything that shakes the confidence in a softly recovering housing market,” David Stevens, chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association and former head of the FHA, said in a telephone interview. “If it’s a short-term shutdown, it’s a story about these employees put out of work. If it’s long term, it’s a broader story about the adverse impact to the economic recovery.”
…
Oct. 1, 2013, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Housing is not about to chill out
Commentary: Taper failure, low inventory keep the market hopping
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Reports of the nascent housing boom’s demise are greatly exaggerated.
Housing is the bright spot in an otherwise moribund economy. As a matter of fact, it is almost solely responsible for keeping the recovery from collapsing altogether.
Taking all its aspects together, from new-home construction to sales of home furnishings and appliances, housing is the country’s single largest industry.
Sales of new and existing homes are rising. Even more important, prices are soaring in an otherwise low-inflation environment.
At last look, home prices were 12.4% higher than this time last year. This was the largest annual increase since 2006, when the last housing boom was in full swing.
Further increases may well be in store. Home prices on average are still more than 20% their all-time highs, which were also set in 2006. That was when the housing bubble burst, sending home sales tumbling into the basement.
Some think that they see the beginnings of another downturn. Month-to-month prices have shrunk a tad. In addition, mortgage rates have jumped by a full percentage point since May, while job growth has slowed.
But the Federal Reserve’s failure to taper its bond purchases as the markets expected sent rates down a bit, thus reigniting demand. What’s driving the housing market nowadays is the widespread belief that all manner of interest rates are lower than they will be in a year. The same belief holds true for home prices.
At any rate, lending standards are more important than rates. What matters most to would-be home buyers is how big a down payment they have to shell out. Many banks have made it somewhat easier for people to get a housing loan.
Right now, inventories of new and existing homes are depleted. This, of course, is a byproduct of the increase in demand. Rising prices should coax some additional sellers into the market even as they bite into demand.
Another reason for the strength in the housing market is large-scale purchases by investors. These are people who have no intent to occupy these houses; rather, they plan to rent them. There is plenty of demand here, more than making up for the rise in rates and the difficulty many have in snaring well-paying jobs.
Unlike other forms of inflation, higher home prices do more good than harm. They make homeowners feel wealthier, thus more likely to spend – even with a little “leakage” into savings.
Higher prices also have pushed some homeowners who had been underwater back above. This means that they once again have equity in their homes – another boost to spending.
In the final analysis, for the housing boom to continue, home buyers must not only have jobs and good incomes, they must also have confidence. In turn, this will depend on how soon members of Congress can get their act together and stop behaving like spoiled children.
…
Unless you are trying to buy your first house.
Or renting.
Or anyone under 25.
Or moving.
But debt is good! Why pay off a house? Take out mucho home equity loans and “feel wealthier.”
Unlike other forms of inflation, higher home prices do more good than harm. They make homeowners feel wealthier, thus more likely to spend – even with a little “leakage” into savings.
Funny stuff considering housing demand is at 14 year lows and resumed falling quite quickly in the last 30 days.
It makes no sense.
Why Calling Obamacare ‘Socialism’ Makes No Sense [Analysis]
http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/calling-obamacare-socialism-makes-sense-analysis/story?id=20435162&page=2
those who call the law socialism, and who denounce liberal federal government programs, fail to see an important point. In this particular case — the case of America’s health care reform — alternate options are not really of material difference, at least not specifically for this piece of the law.
In a nation of more than 316 million, an estimated 48 million residents are currently uninsured, according to the U.S. Census. If one of these uninsured has an accident, the rest of us end up having to pay for it through inflated medical costs and insurance premiums.
For lack of better words, the system of healthcare payment that is on its way out is one of welfare-by-the-visit. It’s a de facto redistribution of resources that eluded codification or recognition by official means through some of the most shocking healthcare cost spikes in modern history.
And so as the ACA’s healthcare exchanges open in the marketplace today, and as the individual mandate starts to be enforced in 2014, this finally changes. In the simplest terms, the law seeks to require that those receiving “welfare benefits” via uninsured healthcare services pay their respective taxes.
The official name for the individual mandate is the “shared responsibility fee,” and it is a fitting name. If patients are currently receiving services on our collective dime, why would anyone object to them paying into the system?
The conservative debate over the individual mandate is one largely of semantics. It assumes that if the government mandates something, that it is overreaching its power and inching the country closer to socialism.
Many times when this same argument is invoked there is validity in it, but this time it’s different. That’s because the only other option as it currently stands is the abusive system that we have been dealing with — one of runaway insurance and medical costs, coupled with a growing sector of uninsured individuals.
You can call it a “shared responsibility fee” or you can call it “government mandate” or you can call it a “tax taken through threat of force”. It is government control of personal decisions, it is a government take-over of the health care establishment.
If the government mandates that I buy insurance or pay a penalty and the government mandates that the insurance company has to cover me regardless of what health I am in and the government mandates that the cost of that plan can be no more than X or Y… that is government controlling an industry. That is socialism. And Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act, reeks of socialism.
Wall Street’s silver lining to protracted Obamacare showdown: It has shielded Congress from the need to enact serious financial system reforms that could prevent a repeat of the Fall 2008 financial meltdown and bailouts.
Oct. 1, 2013, 6:00 a.m. EDT
Obamacare fight is punishing Wall Street
Commentary: Repealing health-care law isn’t worth wrecking national wealth, investment
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
Getty Images
Anti-Obamacare protesters wear masks of President Barack Obama and Grim Reaper as they demonstrate in front of the U.S. Supreme Court in June.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — I’m certain I missed a few, but by my count the U.S. House of Representatives has now voted to repeal, defund or otherwise emasculate Obamacare 42 times.
And in other news, there still is no Volcker Rule ban on risky trading and investing activities for big financial institutions.
As of Sept. 3, 280 Dodd-Frank rulemaking requirement deadlines have passed. Of these 280 passed deadlines, 172 (61.4%) have been missed and 108 (38.6%) have been met with finalized rules, according to Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, a law firm.
Seems as if regulators could use a kick in their chinos. Yet obsessing about Obamacare is how the U.S. Congress has spent the last two years. Everything else seems to have been given short shrift.
A government shutdown looks likely after a weekend of hardening positions and lack of negotiations. The budget standoff is spooking businesses and consumers and three stock picks to lookout for.
And to be blunt, this appears to be mostly the work of intransigent Republicans in the House. They continue to argue that most Americans don’t like the Affordable Care Act. The problem is that poll, after poll, after poll shows it’s at best a 50-50 split. Moreover most, 70%, of the people answering these surveys don’t know how Obamacare is going to work. Those who do understand tend to like it more.
…
It’s a shame that something that has “shielded Congress from the need to enact serious financial system reforms” is considered to be a good thing.
Seriously, we are very stupid people.
I meant it is a silver lining for Wall Street — i.e. great for the 0.1%, though not so great for the 99.9% of the rest of us.
No matter what happens the actions and behavior of the 99 percenters will insure that the one-percenters will do just fine.
If the one-percenters need more money then not to worry, the 99 percenters will send them some - maybe send them all they have. And then some.
“I meant it is a silver lining for Wall Street”
congress has had 6 years to enact meaningful financial reform…they will not and do not want to.
it’s all part of the plan.
for crapsake…holder admited to crongress that he has not intention of prosecuting them.
A perfect storm of financial confusion is on the way in, just in time to exacerbate Wall Street’s normal October case of the heebie jeebies.
Bulletin U.S. adds fewer private-sector jobs in September than forecast: ADP »
Sept. 24, 2013, 8:30 a.m. EDT
It’s nail-biting time on Wall Street
Commentary: The Fed is stoking market confusion
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Although the stock market appears to have dodged a bullet in September, the advent of October and developments out of Washington, past and future, are giving investors the shakes.
October needs no introduction to denizens of the Street of Dreams. It is the worst month of the year and contains some of the biggest one-day declines on record. And while the past is but an imperfect guide to the present, those who ignore this skein do so at their own peril.
Next comes Washington. As if the kerfuffle between the Republicans was not enough, the Federal Reserve has added to the confusion.
Against just about everyone’s expectations, the central bank decided to keep its foot on the gas, pedal to the metal. In other words, the Fed is not tapering its bond buying just yet.
…
“financial confusion”
An example: If the leaders of our country ever decide to get serious about us living within our means then it is feared that our credit rating will go down.
U.S. Government Shutdown Threatening Housing Recovery
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/u-s-government-shutdown-threatening-housing-recovery.html
A U.S. government shutdown will immediately slow approval of thousands of mortgages. If it lasts more than a week, it threatens housing and the broader economic recovery.
Congress forced the first partial government closure in 17 years after failing to pass a budget, meaning borrowers in the process of obtaining home loans could be delayed as lenders are blocked from verifying Social Security numbers and accessing Internal Revenue Service tax transcripts.
The shutdown comes as construction and new housing sales are climbing back from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The process may also lengthen the wait for borrowers seeking approval for mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration because its fulltime staff is now less than a tenth of its normal size and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which backs mortgages in rural areas, won’t take on new business during the shutdown.
“The last thing we need is anything that shakes the confidence in a softly recovering housing market,” David Stevens, chief executive officer of the Mortgage Bankers Association and former head of the FHA,
Actually a shutdown would advance a housing recovery quite rapidly.
Remember….. A ‘housing recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels, by definition.
Perhaps this shutdown is the Congress’s secret plan for restoring U.S. housing affordability?
Question: Will the government shut down stop the processing of 3% FHA loans? Sure hope so, and when things resume I hope they raise the rate by a percentage point to curtail this house buying frenzy.
“… curtail this house buying frenzy.”
They don’t want to curtail it, they want to support it.
Supporting it make the prices go up. Making the prices go up makes the value of the underwater mortgages go up. Making the value of underwater mortgages go up acts to save the banks. And saving the banks, IMHO, is, at root, the point of all this.
fha is the only game in town.
And saving the banks, IMHO, is, at root, the point of all this ??
No question about it….The country was going into a depression…Thats the conclusion I have drawn…I am no fan of ridiculously expensive housing but its obvious that the lenders held trillions in underwater loans and the leaders, from the President all the way down decided to inflate are way out…
The country was going into a depression…
So did we prevent it? Or just delay it and allow it to get bigger?
So did we prevent it ?
Anyones guess but it appears so…
Or just delay it and allow it to get bigger ?
Not sure it could have gotten any bigger than it was…That appears to be the view of most and what triggered the gargantuan response with the flood of money…It was not just our depression…It would have been a world wide depression that I don’t think any of us can grasp the consequences…
IMO, We could have seen massive civil unrest world wide the likes of which our police state may have not been able to tame…
We’ll see. My opinion is that it’s still out there waiting for us, and that there is still no escape from the consequences of a credit bubble.
My opinion is that it’s still out there waiting for us ??
Well I agree, sorta…I am edgy thats for sure but I hope for everyones sake it does not happen…
Making the value of underwater mortgages go up acts to save the banks.
That was true six years ago, but is it still true today?
It would be really interesting to see data on what percentage of the underwater mortgages from 2004-2007 have been refi’ed, and what percentage have not.
My guess is that the banks have very little of that particular vintage of loans remaining on their books—it has all either been refi’ed and the risk shifted onto the taxpayer, or the problematic MBS has been bought up by the Super-SIV—ahem, I mean Federal Reserve—and thus also shifted onto the taxpayer.
I think that by now, we should be able to declare success on the banks having been saved…
Rates will go up all by themselves once the Fed curtails its $40 bn a month in MBS purchases.
I’m frankly quite amazed they can “afford” to maintain such a high volume hard wired cash flow into the housing market, given how short Uncle Sam is these days. At any rate, I’m happy for the all-cash foreign investors, who are making out like bandits on ever-rising U.S. home prices.
Linked from Drudge:
“A new Gallup poll has found that 25 percent of today’s uninsured plan to stay that way.
The poll, released on September 30, noted that two in three of those surveyed said they “planned” to get insurance rather than pay the small fina at the end of the year.
Sixty-nine percent of the youth demographic were unaware they were required to get health insurance by January 1, 2014. This is the age group that Obama is hoping will foot the bill for the rest of America.
Gallup also found that knowledge of all aspects of Obamacare was quite low for those in the youth demographic.”
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/09/30/25-of-the-Uninsured-Say-They-Plan-to-Stay-That-Way
do they sell it at walmart?
The Affordable Care Act would be much more popular among the youfs if it was available as a free i-phone app.
has found that 25 percent of today’s uninsured plan to stay that way ??
So, where do they go if they get injured ?? And who pays for that care ??
So, where do they go if they get injured ?? And who pays for that care ??
To Mexico and use their Universal Health Care System?
After all - it is FREE
After all - it is FREE ??
It is here….Take a good hard look at it….
https://www.google.com/search?q=Valley+Medical+Center+Santa+Clara+County+pictures&biw=1344&bih=632&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=KT1MUp36Ce33igKLg4DoAw&sqi=2&ved=0CDoQsAQ
We all know the answer: The ER and you and I pay for it in our insurance premiums.
I am fine with turning away people from the ER who have willingly declined signing up for “obamacare”.
I am fine with turning away people from the ER who have willingly declined signing up for “obamacare”.
——————————————————————–
Even if they are showing symptoms of viral hemorrhagic fever (Marburg virus)?
Obviously there are corner cases where public health is involved. But you know what I meant.
Anyone can afford the best medical care…You just need to be broke and/or an illegal immigrant to get it…
Emergency, perhaps. Follow up? Chronic? Cancer? Disability?
Nope.
Realtors are nothing more than jailbirds on early release…..
Glorified jailbirds.
Mr Money Mustache has been discussed here before. I was trying to figure out a way to do something “radical” or “badass” (his terms) like fire my cable company. I wasn’t able to fire them for internet, but I did fire them for content delivery. How? PS3 (has BluRay, internet browser, wifi) and 2 of these devices:
http://picpaste.com/f447f96dac2d4cdc8d23a38d1c9d665a.jpg
Has anyone else done this yet? I can’t rave about that thing ^^^^ enough. Freaking amazing. Easy to set up, easy to use, etc. I’ve watched a bunch of “House of Cards” on it via Netflix, you can easily save where you are when you fall asleep, pause when you leave room, etc. All you need is the app on your phone.
Liberace has entered the building!
… with helpful info re: cutting the court from Comcast/cable.
Hey RAL, I love living in your skull rent-free.
cutting the court
The metaphor is “cutting the cord“.
Swype did that but I should’ve caught it, I guess. I know the metaphor.
Swype did that
Ah, sorry—I’ve gotten used to so many people mangling the language that it didn’t occur to me that it might just be spell-correct or Swype.
Is that an original score Liberace?
Has anyone else done this yet? I can’t rave about that thing ^^^^ enough. Freaking amazing.
Those do look pretty amazing, esp at that price-point.
But adopting that would require that I upgrade to a newer television—my old tube-based one doesn’t have an HDMI input!
TV prices have come way down and this allows you to bypass cable. You don’t need a “smart TV” which saves you a TON of money. Cutting cable and going to internet-only saves me ~100/month, which more than pays for whatever TV you’d buy.
I just got a nice TV this year (paid half off bc BestBuy had it set aside as “damaged” bc of some tiny superficial scratches on extreme lower right corner of screen). I bypassed the “smart” TV thing bc I knew I would get PS3 which has the wifi/blu ray/dvd functions.
These Chromecasts have their own software and their own app for set up. It sets itself up and is as intuitive as the other Google products you use. You go to a URL on your smart phone and it communicates with the Chromecast automatically. It takes less than 5 minutes to go from plugging in to streaming.
I don’t watch a lot of TV, but when I do Netflix or Hulu pretty much cover what I want at a fraction of the price of digital cable with a DVR box. With Nflix/Hulu you can also watch on ANY computer/tablet/phone. Great for traveling or sitting on a train/plane.
I tried a digital antenna to get at least the “free” channels, but I’m really not interested in most of that free content and the reception wasn’t that good. I ended up returning the antenna to BestBuy.
TV prices have come way down and this allows you to bypass cable.
Yep—but I already don’t pay for cable, and never have, actually.
Netflix covers most of my viewing needs, and also works fine through the old laptop sitting by my television. So while the Chromecast looks sexy, I’m not seeing how it would make a huge qualitative improvement in what I can watch or how I can watch it—or at least, not enough of one to justify upgrading to a newer television.
I had netflix for a while, but watching old tv shows and c-quality movies didn’t seem like a good value proposition to me. Their selection needs to get a lot better before I’d consider it an alternative to cable. And that’s not even mentioning sports.
It has gotten better - the best show right now is exclusively on Netflix (House of Cards).
If you combine Netflix with itunes/Amazon/GooglePlay (which all carry current shows and have a la carte pricing) you can get most of what’s on cable.
The sports is really the only thing you’d need to work around. I don’t care about sports that much and with the $100/month I save, I could take beer over a buddy’s house anytime and catch a game.
Also not having cable news is surprisingly freeing. Most of it is just rehash and drama llama-ing.
I didn’t care much for House of Cards (not enough to pay for it at least given Netflix’s other subpar content), but I think having multiple content delivery locations I have to check for shows is fine for just me, but doesn’t work for my wife, kids, or guests. Getting rid of my 5th biggest bill which is pretty much the same cost as my summer water bill is still too much hassle. If a single legitimate app could consolidate those into a single delivery system I didn’t have to have a long list of instructions for an elderly or a child to access, then I think cable is going to have a problem.
Apple and Google tvs are close, but not there yet.
Then again, my combined cable & internet bill with FIOS is only about $125. I’m assuming it’s higher than that for many of you. Much higher than that for me, and I’d be printing up the instructions. I never watch cable news; I like music channels and the mindless flights of Aerial America.
The problem with cutting cable is that in this area, that’s the only way to get seriously fast broadband.
So, I’m still on DSL.
I’m on DSL too, but there are pretty fast DSL options here. 20Mb+
Comcast (biggest of the evil cable co’s) is my provider. They provide fast internet as an option. In my case it is about 80/month, which is $100 cheaper than cable with digital service and 1 DVR box for media room + 2 regular boxes for 2nd floor and living room.
Chromecast + Netflix + PS3 allows me to have access to the same quality of programming by ONLY paying for the internet. I get the digital content without the upcharges.
If the GOP really pushes this ending Net Neutrality thing, it would allow Comcast to “throttle” people using certain websites. Obviously they could and would use this on their content-based competition, primarily Netflix but also iTunes, Amazon, Hulu, Google Play, and Youtube.
I think Comcast will also be sh*tting their pants if they ever lose their able to do “tier” or “bundled” pricing, making everyone pay $5/month for ESPN even if they never watch it. If alternatives like Netflix or Google catch on, people will be able to pick and choose what they like instead of being forced into one of 2 or 3 plans. Once Comcast has to compete with that, they won’t be able to spread around the fees for sports channels, which they use to control their monopoly in the first place.
Fast is one thing, download limits are another. So is cell reception.
Chromecast
Roku, Plex and The Pirate Bay for me, arghh!
http://readwrite.com/2013/09/25/roku-new-streaming-boxes#awesm=~oj9iQXneIrxY0W
I haven’t researched it enough to know what I want to do, but I need to do something. DirecTV is definitely hosing me and the only content I consistently watch is SNL. Problem is my son is young enough that he still likes the specialty channels…right now his thing is Cartoon Network. If I had an easy to way to get SNL and a couple of CN shows I’d get rid of them…but I’ve been too lazy to get serious about it.
Looking for alternatives since August when my bill went to $125/month for bare cable.
I looked into chromecast too. It’s promising. No alternatives offer HBO which really sucks. Directv and dish network is as much a ripoff as cable.
No alternatives offer HBO which really sucks.
All the good stuff from HBO comes out on DVD, eventually…
And then to streaming about a year after that…
We already have the PS3, and probably a PS4 soon enough. Looks like between Netflix and Hulu you can get about anything you want…it’s just a matter of getting over the hump and getting used to a new way of doing things. Maybe I should just stop paying DirecTV and let nature take it’s course…my son will probably figure out the alternatives soon enough, and then he can show me :-).
I thought it would be more of an adjustment. But it’s not. Unless you absolutely need daily sports or the circle jerk of cable news (a lot of other news content is available streaming) it’s not going to ber hard for you at all.
Get your movies (blu ray) via Netflix and use the PS3 to also do streaming in that room. And then in other rooms, just go chromecast ($35 w/ free shipping on Amazon prime).
Almost anything not on netflix can be had somewhere else for a la carte prices. There are exceptions but they come out eventually. And you can just take a 6 pack to a buddy or family member’s house.
We don’t really do sports and we only have one TV. That’s part of why I feel so ripped off by DirecTV going over $100/mo.. It’s a ridiculous amount of money for SNL and a couple of cartoons.
I got chromecast via Amazon Prime, knowing I could preview and return it if I didn’t like it.
With chromecast, you can buy content a la carte. If you wanted a broad range of selections, you could combine Netflix with Amazon Prime or iTunes or GooglePlay. Hulu has some “original programming” content like things from networks.
The problem with SNL (an NBC owned show) is that the parent company (NBC Universal) was purchased by Comcast, an evil cable company. I do think some older SNL is avail on Hulu. Newer shows might be on iTunes for like $1/show or $20 for the season. Check it out.
I’ve found you could substitute around and find things to replace what you lose. I lost sports, for example. I don’t watch a ton, but I won’t be able to see the winter olympics or march madness, etc.
One last thought - The GOP has included “ending net neutrality” as a demand from Obama. Net neutrality currently requires cable companies who offer internet to treat all traffic equally. So Comcast can’t throttle Netflix traffic. If Comcast is allowed to discriminate (treat some traffic differently, like Amazon/iTunes/Netflix/Hulu) it will be a big change. I do not understand what the GOP is thinking. They’re actively supporting the idea that cable companies should have a monopoly power. It only makes sense when you realize how much money these companies donate and how old the GOP base is (i.e. not very interested in streaming services).
Do you lose your ballet and yoga too?
Never done ballet and know almost nothing about it beyond the music of Copland, Barber, and Tchaikovsky that makes up a lot of ballet in the US. That music is notable with no reference to ballet whatsoever.
Yoga is a different story, I like yoga but don’t have time to go to classes anymore. I used to go because it’s a great workout and the women are extremely hot. Now I just do some poses for stretching to prevent injuries from biking or lifting.
Cool Lib….
Replaced the satellite with a Roku streaming box and an indoor HD antenna. Dish Network sends me “please come back” love letters every month, which go straight into the recycling bin.
A big thing that keeps Dish/DirecTV/Comcast so ubiquitous is their near monopoly on sports. If you want sports of any type (euro soccer, olympics, tennis, NFL, college sports) you really can’t do these workarounds. The only way I can think of is to borrow a friend’s log-in info and then you can do watchespn.com using their log-in.
I’m not big into sports but it is still weird to lose nearly all of it.
Chromecast accesses Youtube very well and you can see some sports-related content that way. You just subscribe to the YouTube channel for NBCSports or ESPN, etc. I think that is how I’ll see skiing or other olympics stuff this winter. Obviously I won’t see 10 hours of content per day but I didn’t want that anyway.
A big thing that keeps Dish/DirecTV/Comcast so ubiquitous is their near monopoly on sports.
Broncos and Rockies games are broadcast locally. Olympics will be on NBC. College football also broadcast. Soccer is on Univision. I can pick all of those up with my HD antenna.
I’ve seen NBC Sports offered on the Roku box. I looked at it and found that its mostly just talk about Lebron or whatever is “hot” that day.
“Olympics will be on NBC”
Yeah, maybe a few hours a day for the “major” events which means figure skating, hockey, some skiing events.
The bulk of the content is on all the other channels NBCUni (now part of Comcast) owns. CNBC, etc. With Comcast owning NBC now, the “free” content is only going to lessen. More commercials, more emphasis on the “hot” events. They would rather show a 10 minute interview of Costas with Michael Phelps and then show a 2 minute race afterwards. I guess that could be interesting, but it means alot of the actual content is pushed to the cable channels.
For summer ‘12 Olympics, IIRC, the only things on NBC during prime time hours were Michael Phelps (which was delayed bc the events were really several hours before), women’s gymnastics (bc US very strong) and some track events. Heavily excerpted, of course. I think even the basketball was on USA or CNBC most of the time.
Dish is a major employer in south metro Denver, and from everything I’ve heard, a horrible place to work. 2.4 stars out of 5 on glassdoor:
http://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/DISH-Reviews-E4501.htm
I interviewed there once upon a time. Seemed pretty horrible to me.
You didn’t get the job, did you?
Hah hah…no, but I didn’t want an offer by the time I left. You could see the desperate “don’t do it” in the eyes of every lower level person there at the time.
Oct. 2, 2013, 10:22 a.m. EDT
Banks abandon mortgage preapprovals
What the decline of preapprovals means for homebuyers
By AnnaMaria Andriotis
The mortgage preapproval, for years a crucial step in the home-buying process, is losing its luster with lenders, new data shows.
A mortgage preapproval is a written commitment lenders give to buyers that states the maximum size home loan they can get as well as the likely interest rate. Buyers rely on preapprovals to make sure they’re shopping for a home that’s in their price range. But new federal data suggests lenders are scaling back on preapprovals. Among the top 25 mortgage lenders, just 29,912 preapprovals resulted in mortgages that borrowers received to purchase a home last year, according to data released last month by the Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council. That’s down from 101,626 in 2007, before the housing downturn. Preapprovals accounted for 4% of purchase mortgages that were originated by these lenders last year, down from 9% in 2007.
In addition, preapprovals—which have traditionally been considered one of the first steps to getting a home loan—did not precede any of the mortgages doled out to home buyers by 14 of the largest 25 lenders last year. “The popularity of preapprovals is quite low,” says Mike Lyon, vice president of mortgage operations at Quicken Loans. (The mortgage lender had 598 preapprovals result in mortgages last year, down 43% from 2007, according to this government data.)
The demise of the preapproval comes at a delicate time for home buyers. As competition heats up, bidding wars are becoming the norm; for prospective buyers to stand out to sellers, they often need to show proof that they have lined up financing and are ready to proceed with the transaction, says Jim Gaines, research economist at Texas A&M University’s Real Estate Center. Preapprovals provide that evidence to sellers, and buyers who lack them will have a hard time getting a home that has many offers on it. Preapprovals may also provide some leverage to buyers who are competing against all-cash buyers, who accounted for 32% of existing-home sales in August, up from 27% a year prior, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Because they don’t need a mortgage, all-cash buyers often make lower offers on homes; a home buyer with a higher offer and a preapproval could beat them out, says Gaines.
…
Never, EVER and I mean EVER get into a bidding war on a house. YOU WILL ALWAYS LOOSE YOUR SHIRT.
This home (listed originally at $550K)is our floor plan in our neighborhood. We paid less than $400K 12 months ago. Our home is upgraded nicer (wood floors, chocolate glass cabinets in kitchen, LGs), and has a pool. I can’t believe this is listed so high, even after a $10K haircut. Prices are just ridiculous but homes are selling. Live frees are scoring in So Ca, I guess.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Simi-Valley/2010-Fernwood-Ct-93065/home/4639518
Our upgrades were post purchase, but we did it smart. We were the General Contractor and used a friend’s license (GC) to keep the cost down. We shopped before sunset in not so nice areas. Saved a bundle.
why did you have to use a license on your own house?
Discount$ at places where you buy directly from the manufacturer.
I’ve done this for MAPI grout*, tiles, wood, PEX, etc. I borrow people’s contractor info - guys who I use for other jobs.
* Lowes actually has a good epoxy grout now, I forget the name, but I’ve been using that instead of MAPI lately.
That’s quite a resume Lib. A symphony conductor, harpsichordist, lawyer(rhymes with liar), tile man, auto mechanic…….
Where do you find the time?
Don’t you normally need a license to pull permits?
Could be my ignorance speaking; I do not work in the building industry.
Re: permits, it probably depends on the work you’re doing and whether you’re trying to fully comply with the laws. Inch by Inch may have pulled permits because (IIRC) they were upgrading their electrical supply and adding heat to the pool. (I could be remembering incorrectly.)
Prime, no.
Prime, no.
I thought in some jurisdictions, it was required, at least for electrical permits… My younger brother took his GC & GC-E exam for that reason, and I got the impression that he pulled permits for electricians with it.
Price is too high.
I like the floor plan. I have the same lot size (roughly), it’s not as bad as you’d think. You’re more spread out, being a rancher, but still looks like a decent little yard. HOA fees not too bad. I generally don’t like HOA.
If they pulled the carpet and put wood (or even the higher grade of Allure) down, it would be great.
Suite Joey Blue Eyes
I’m w/ you on lot size and no HOA. We lucked out, the house was built the phase before the HOA kicked in. Grandfathered out. (Hooray!)
We had a big McMansion on a 1/4 acre lot. The maintenance and water bill wasn’t cheap. I don’t mind less land, as long as you have trees for privacy, Auditory privacy sucks, granted.
We lucked out, the house was built the phase before the HOA kicked in. Grandfathered out. (Hooray!)
I met a guy a few months ago who was in the same situation—one of a very few non-HOA’ed houses in an HOA’ed area.
That struck me as a pretty sweet deal: the freedom to not have an HOA for yourself, yet still with the benefit of everyone around you having to kow-tow to the HOA toadies.
Hard to find that border-between-worlds, I’m guessing…
Prime
Exactly! We get the benefit of the curb appeal police around us, and don’t have to deal w/ the bs.
Although we are in a curb appeal mode right now. For $9 at HD I got the carriage door hardware for our garage door, and I am using Rustoleum gloss black paint to paint windows (with grids) on the garage door. Amazing transformation that will run us under $25.
What does THAT mean?
We shopped before sunset in not so nice areas.
I assumed it meant that they thought they could get building supplies more cheaply in more impoverished areas; that may be true—I’ve never checked. But it sounds like they were doing their buying during daylight hours in areas where they didn’t want to be at night.
Yep.We went to the areas the GCs go. Industrial areas. No fancy showrooms, just great pricing. You have to know what you want ahead of time, and do your due diligence.
LOLZ…… this gets better all the time. You got ripped off and you think you got a bargain. I gotta bridge for sale.
This home (listed originally at $550K)is our floor plan in our neighborhood. We paid less than $400K 12 months ago.”
Same thing happening in Moorpark. Old homes getting cosmetic fix ups and listing 100K over what they sold for a year ago.
cactus
I’ll take your micro climate any day. Lucky dude. Best climate around and the schools are fantastic in Moorpark as well.
Looked up Moorpark High demographics last week and it’s now 33% Hispanic. When the heck did that happen? When we lived in Mountain Meadows only well to do Hispanics could afford the area. Renters? wth
Our home is on the NO HOA side of the tract. The HOA would have been a deal breaker. Been there, done that twice. No thanks.
^^ I didn’t see this when I posted my comments above. Can you use the tennis courts without HOA? Maybe there are others you can use nearby? I have 3 different sets of tennis courts within 5 min drive of my house, I’m a big fan.
Suite Joey Blue Eyes
If we want to use the facilities in the “Club” a friend/HOA payer lets us in, but we prefer the public park. More facilities and the walk there is healthy.
My mom is constantly bitching about her condo/HOA bill (currently $200-225 a month)
For this she gets:
- Basic Cable
- Lawn care and Snow removal service
- Trash pickup at her door
- Water
- Maintenance reserve for the building’s exterior. They have been replacing roofs, building new storage sheds/outbuilding and pouring new patio slabs the past two years.
All in all, not a bad deal, IMO……the days of paying the next-door neighbors 10 year old 5-10 bucks to mow grass are long gone……
Of course, nobody ever said that old people could do math. They have a few (less than 10) deadbeats who (for whatever reasons) aren’t paying their condo/HOA bill. They cut their cable and trash service, but “they still no payee”. So they took a vote, and decided to hire a management company. So now, the residents are going to pay several thousand bucks a month in management fees, to collect less than half that in unpaid condo fees……..and this is assuming that they aren’t trying to squeeze blood from turnips.
HOA mgmt firms are a waste of money. I also hated funding their free-loader retirement when I was on the BOD.
So now, the residents are going to pay several thousand bucks a month in management fees, to collect less than half that in unpaid condo fees…
Fools and their money. They would have been better served by hiring a local attorney to attach liens to the non-payers properties. That way they get paid eventually, unless it’s a walk-away-foreclosure.
Once all U.S. citizens own their own houses and have health care coverage, what further basic right will Washington D.C. require all citizens to enjoy?
At meetings when The Pledge of Allegiance is said, I’ll stand, but no hand over heart, nor is the POA is spoken from my lips.
Someone here summed it up beautifully. Kudos to whomever.
“This country is a mere shadow of its former self.”
Here are some dirty little secrets which nobody save Matt Taibbi discusses much:
1) Requiring every U.S. citizen to own a home and health insurance sends a huge flood of money into the coffers of the FIRE sector.
2) The FIRE sector is the primary source of campaign finance for the politicians who support these “everybody is a health-insured homeowner” programs.
If the FIRE sector were organically the most important part of the economy, and its wealth would trickle down to the rest of the economy, it wouldn’t need to firehose so much money at politicians.
They are of course, the most important sector to politicians, as a result of their massive money contributions.
I heard someone put it very well: “Politicians are more like development officers today, instead of legislators.”
Have you ever seen House of Cards? This type of swindling is discussed. Arguably the “best show on TV” right now, except that it’s not available on TV, only on Netflix. Blows the junk on TV out of the water.
And we all are so very proud to have such loyal upstanding patriotic citizens as you who have worked so very hard and shed blood, sweat, and tears. Hallelujah!
Hi-Z
If your comment is direct at me, I love and appreciate our brave military. One of my nephews came back from Afghanistan w/ brain damage. He’ll never be the same.
Our govt stinks (both parties), but our military should always be thanked. We owe those brave souls. I always thank them and it puts a smile on their face. True heroes.
To be a slave?
Oh wait - we already have that.
Debt slavery is the new black.
Once all U.S. citizens own their own houses and have health care coverage, what further basic right will Washington D.C. require all citizens to enjoy?’
A tax on their carbon footprint
Any thoughts on how this outflow will reverse and what circumstances will accompany the reversal?
Oct. 2, 2013, 11:05 a.m. EDT
Pimco Total Return Fund has fifth month of outflow
By Ben Eisen
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund (PTTRX -0.09%) saw $5.4 billion in investor withdrawals in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of outflows for the mutual fund, according to data released by Morningstar, Inc. on Wednesday. Year-to-date outflows for the fund have totaled $28.7 billion, or 10.1% of assets under management at the end of 2012, according to Morningstar. Bond mutual funds like the Total Return Fund have suffered in recent months as yields rose on expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Since the U.S. stock market has barely dropped in response to the shutdown and a weak jobs report, is it safe to assume there is little further downside risk from here?
The Black and white undertow:
Fight at Walmart over the last GTA V copy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-kl7Ow_FPM
LOL
The ignorant and uneducated will do what the ignorant and uneducated will do, doesn’t matter if they’re black, white, hispanic, asian, or whatever.
The local radio station lets people call in the Monday after Thanksgiving, and report on the stuff that happens over the holidays.
Some of the best stories:
-Two uncles getting drunk, arguing, fist fighting, and blasting away at each other with shotguns out in the front yard. Nobody wounded, but a few cars were shot up. Neighbors and cops not amused.
-Stories from the Wal-Mart riots…….guy was telling the story about his 60-something mother rolling on the floor, wrestling another woman, trying to get the last sale priced LED TV.
He helped by cheering her on: “Go Mom! You can kick her azz!!”
Tired of Miley? Tired of “twerking”? Have I got the app for you……
http://tinyurl.com/oc3a4t6
Crap…….link doesn’t work.
Google: “No Miley web app”
Don’t jeopardize the ‘economic recovery’! Be afraid!!!!
http://dailycaller.com/2013/10/01/obama-admin-knew-about-wwii-veterans-request-and-rejected-it/
Sorry, I can’t resist:
““This is an open-air memorial that the public has 24/7 access to under normal circumstances — even when Park Service personnel aren’t present,” Palazzo said in the statement. “It actually requires more effort and expense to shut out these veterans from their Memorial than it would to simply let them through. My office has been in touch with NPS officials and the Administration to try to resolve this issue.”
Remarkable…
That all right…
Young men EVERYWHERE are watching this.
One day you will need them to fight and they gonna just look at you “sideways”
One day you will need them to fight and they gonna just look at you “sideways”
You know that will be the day they reenact the draft.
You know that will be the day they reenact the draft.
————————————————————–
Do you want someone “like me” drafted into your army?
Do you really want someone “like me” talking to the other draftees?
what country you from?
I don’t think any of the big contributors want a debt default. That’s coming up October 17th. But there is a massive industry built up around the current healthcare system. Their battlebots are going to be fighting hard for their interests. The FIRE sector also has a lot of battlebots, with overlap over the medical system battlebots. We’ll see who the best generals are.
Of course, the best interests of the society are left by the wayside. For example, the way young people are preyed upon by the education bubble is unconscionable. That’s politicians and Wall Street again taking the economic surplus historically left to students. Just like they did with housing. But then, one has to have a conscience in order to be deterred by the unconscionable.
No dollar will be allowed to escape, as it has been eloquently stated here in the past.
I’ve told my two youngest that until some things get straightened out in this country, the last thing they want to do is take on $150K worth of student loan debt.
Too many college grads are working Lucky Duck jobs. And if what we have now is the “new paradigm”, well, there’s no sense in going to college at all.
Next to a bubble-priced house, a college degree is the most overpriced thing you can buy.
College major is very important. Even though colleges are purportedly non-profit, they very much need to make profits. They allow undergraduates - who need real guidance - to major in majors with virtually no immediately-out-of-college job demand. Things like philosophy or similar. If they wish to go to higher education - PhD or law school for example - typically, then they could perhaps get a job in such a major.
I haven’t closely looked at the situation but something like 2 years community college then transfer to state school would probably provide the best bang for the buck. Maybe, like I say, I haven’t examined what the best bang for the buck would be. In-state tuition for a state school. And of course, stay away from the for-profit institutions.
And also, the for-profit angle may well be an issue with community colleges too, the for-profit angle. A friend who teaches at a community college was not supported when there was a problem in his classroom because the administrators wanted the students to stay enrolled, and thus continuing to pay.
2 years community college then transfer to state school would probably provide the best bang for the buck
Your mileage may vary. In California JC’s are ultra cheap. Here in the Centennial State, not so much.
Cheap or not, if a STEM major is only going to make $20/hour (if he/she gets hired at all), what’s the point?
Globalization/Free Market Economy, in a world of Mercantilist Sharks = WORST…..IDEA…..EVER
I don’t think it’s a good idea to take generalizations like ‘not enough jobs and stem majors getting $20 an hour’ to make decisions in individual cases. You know your own kids better than I do, but there are plenty of jobs out there that pay more than that for dedicated workers who got decent grades in school.
For example, here’s a chart showing the unemployment rate for college grads at 3.5% vs 7.6% for just high schoolers. If you bump out all the minorities (yeah, the US is still very racist) the employment rate and job prospects for college grads is very good.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm
Here’s a 2nd chart which shows median income for college graduates is above $20 an hour, unless your kid is moving to South Dakota I guess.
http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2012/12/grads-earn-85-more-than-those-without.html?page=all
What is interesting about that to me is how it appears that “some college or associates degree” gets you basically nothing.
What is interesting about that to me is how it appears that “some college or associates degree” gets you basically nothing.
Not so surprising—except that perhaps “some college” should be considered a negative on a candidate. Would you rather hire someone who has demonstrated that they might not have the drive to finish, or someone for whom you have no information on their drive?
(Yes, I know there are many other possible reasons for not finishing, which might come out in an interview… But it’s one possible reason.)
It just sucks because out in rural Wyoming there are a lot of people within commuting distance of a local 2 year college, but they never make it to the university. People tell them that getting some college is better than nothing.
And then there are the two year technical schools…are those literally worthless or are they the outliers in this data?
lot of people within commuting distance of a local 2 year college, but they never make it to the university.
Makes sense; for someone like that, I would give them credit if they did well in their 2yrs.
And then there are the two year technical schools…are those literally worthless or are they the outliers in this data?
I have no information there—sorry.
Battlebots (politicians) trying to figure out which teat will provide the most milk/cash - Healthcare or FIRE. I’m betting on FIRE. I need to take a closer look at the recent contribution levels though. Optimally, they want to find a way to suckle both.
Bank CEOs to Obama: This is going to be bad
By Jennifer Liberto @CNNMoney October 2, 2013: 1:54 PM ET
More than a dozen Wall Street bank chiefs warned President Obama at the White House that the financial system would suffer if the shutdown and debt limit aren’t resolved.
On the second day of the federal shutdown, Blankfein and other bank CEOs said they told the president they agree the long-term consequences of a shutdown would grow “extremely adverse” if the U.S. fails raise its borrowing capacity.
Many of the institutions are still resolving investigations by various government agencies on questionable mortgages and financing in the early to mid-2000s, which led to the real estate bubble and ultimately the financial crisis. [ed. note: Hah! They'll pay any show fines out of company petty cash and legislators will get commensurately less]
http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/02/news/economy/obama-wall-street-ceo/
told the president they agree the long-term consequences of a shutdown would grow “extremely adverse” if the U.S. fails raise its borrowing capacity.
What a terribly-written article. It is not the shutdown that they were saying would be harmful, but defaulting on our debts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/party-over-housing-bank-earnings-chris-whalen-161916996.html
over already?
By Aaron Task | Daily Ticker
“Banks are telling us…they have to move people, facilities and systems into other areas entirely because they’re not going to have the volumes” in mortgages, says Chris Whalen, managing director at Carrington Holding Company, a specialty finance company which focuses on residential real estate.
Indeed, the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders — Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — are expected to lay off over 22,000 workers in their mortgage units in coming months, according to Fox Business.
“The party is over” for refinancing activity while a weak job market and flat consumer incomes are preventing a pickup in purchase activity, Whalen says. “Structural reasons, apart from rates [mean] you’re going to see a real tail-off in demand” for mortgages.
Who needs mortgages anyway when all-cash investors in buy-to-rent rule the U.S. housing market?
I was thinking about what’s just happened and where we are recently. There was that spike in interest rates starting in May IIRC. But it was only 1% or so for the mortgages. Bam, sales dropped, prices dropped in some markets and inventory started to grow all over the place. And all this with foreclosures going down in most markets.
Someone in a recent article pointed out that potential sellers don’t want to sell right after a (perceived) bottom. They try to time the market and get out at the top. With market sentiment changing so rapidly, it will be interesting to see if there is a rush to market. A 1% rate increase knocks the whole market into reverse? It looks like this year or one and a half year boom was a mile wide and an inch deep.
“It looks like this year or one and a half year boom was a mile wide and an inch deep.”
And the inventory flood which follows it may resemble a mile-wide, five-feet-deep flash flood in the middle of the desert.
The elevator door shut and the donkeys are corralled once again.
Bottom floor is a long way down and the hoist motor is variable speed.
Ben-
It looks like this is primarily multi-family related, but the exodus may have begun.
“With mortgage applications down around 60% from their peak in April, the last best hope for sustained “recovery” in housing ‘was’ the cash-only bid from private equity and hedge capital in the REO-to-rent or flip-dat-house trades. As we have noted previously, that last pillar was starting to falter and as Bloomberg reports, it seems is now in full crack mode as Carlyle Group switches from marginal buyer to marginal seller in its $2.3 billion real estate funds. “Our capital was useful at the front edge of the recovery,” the firm notes - implying the big gains are over as rent growth fades (as employment and income growth slows). Crucially, they add, “investors really want the new Class A properties so we’re selling into that demand.” We assume that by “investors” they mean greater-fool bag-holders.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-02/key-pillar-housing-recovery-cracks-private-equity-becomes-marginal-seller
Just the other day we saw this:
‘Mon, Sep 23, 2013 (Reuters) - Oaktree Capital Group is leading an effort to put up for sale roughly 500 fully-leased homes, an indication some early investors are looking to cash-out on the recovery in U.S. housing prices, according to sources familiar with the market.’
And I posted that MN article with the Invitation Homes COO saying they might ‘flip’ some houses. On a side note; the search engines are getting very quiet for housing articles. If you look for something about flipping, there’s not much that’s recent. Internationally, China is saying nothing as is India.
“…China is saying nothing as is India…”
Bagholders have a tendency to clam up once they realize they got left holding the bag.
It looks like this year or one and a half year boom was a mile wide and an inch deep ??
Neat Metaphor Ben…I must agree with you….Higher interest rates are going to have significant impact on current prices starting with the most expensive area’s…
http://www.movoto.com/blog/market-trends/state-of-the-real-estate-market-october-2013/
‘Total inventory was up 4.6 percent from August to September with 105,726 homes on the market as opposed to 101,086 the month before. This marks the fifth straight month-over-month increase in inventory, a trend that began in April and we predict will steadily continue as the market normalizes.’
‘Inventory has not increased on a month-over-month basis between the months of August and September since 2010. At that time, it increased by 3.2 percent, meaning that last month’s gain over this August was almost double that, and inventory is climbing more steadily than it did in the summer and fall of 2010.’
‘Las Vegas, NV lead the pack in terms of an increase in inventory, up a whopping 58.5 percent in September 2013 versus September 2012, from 3,685 homes to 5,839. That’s an increase of 2,154 homes on the market compared to last year.’
From the chart:
YOY inventory increase for San Diego - 37.5%. YOY inventory increase for Sacramento - 56.6%. Charlotte - 57.4%.
I told a co-worker the other day that you can’t stuff 10 lbs. potatoes in a five pound bag. I think the RE market can not cannibalize things much longer.
Fears the debt ceiling won’t get raised start appearing in bond markets
October 2, 2013, 1:12 PM
Not many people really truly believe the U.S. will fail to raise the debt ceiling, thereby risking a default on its debt. But the doomsday scenario is certainly gathering interest as the government shutdown drama plays out in the gridlocked U.S. capital.
“Our position remains that the debt ceiling will be raised in time. But clients have now started asking ‘what-if’ questions as October 17 nears,” admits Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Co-Head of FICC Research at Barclays, in a Wednesday note to clients.
With that in mind, here’s what we know: The Treasury Department has said it will bump up against its borrowing limit on October 17, but it wouldn’t test the boundaries until an October 31 coupon payment, which gives it time to continue collecting cash under a delayed payment regime, according to Rajadhyaksha. He estimates that the U.S. would collect as much as $100 billion in cash between those two dates, giving it enough to make its $6 billion interest payment. Here’s how it would go down, he writes:
“Their stated view was that the least harmful of a series of very bad options was to implement a delayed payment regime. In this scenario, the Treasury makes no payments on a given day until it has enough cash to make all the payments for that day, even if that means the payments are delayed.”
Should it come to that, interest on U.S. Treasury debt could perhaps still be prioritized over other payments simply because it is paid through a separate computer system, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.
So what impact is this all having on the debt that would have to be paid off during the potential gray zone? As MarketWatch reported Tuesday, 1-month Treasury bill (1_MONTH -20.83%) yields have spiked higher since the government shut down as fears increase that the debt wouldn’t be paid on time. Certain money-market funds are prohibited from buying securities if there’s any doubt they’ll be repaid, and they ceased buying, sending prices lower and yields higher.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research strategists identify the maturities on specific securities that are spiking most as being the ones in their so-called “danger zone” (see chart below).
The Bank of America strategists, led by Economist Michael Hanson, write:
i think obama needs to have another beer summit.
Why not?
POLITICS
Updated October 2, 2013, 1:12 p.m. ET
Reid Offers to Negotiate on Budget, Policy
Obama Invites Congressional Leaders for Talks
By JANET HOOK And COREY BOLES
CONNECT
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, center, during a news conference with Democratic colleagues on Capitol Hill on Wednesday.
WASHINGTON—Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) on Wednesday offered to engage in wide-ranging budget and policy negotiations with House Republicans, marking the first formal overture from congressional Democrats since parts of the government shut down on Tuesday.
Mr. Reid, in a letter to House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), didn’t offer policy concessions. But he said if House Republicans passed a simple short-term measure to reopen the government, Democrats would agree to begin broad negotiations on 2014 spending and other matters.
The development came as President Barack Obama invited congressional leaders from both parties to the White House Wednesday afternoon to discuss the shutdown and looming debt-ceiling crisis.
“There needs to be a path forward to reopen our government and protect our economy. This is a communication to you offering a sensible, reasonable compromise,” Mr. Reid said in the letter. The letter also said the negotiations could be extended to include issues including health care, tax reform and agricultural policy. Democrats envisage the talks would be a forum to potentially resolve several outstanding policy issues between the parties.
Mr. Reid said he had a “cordial conversation” with Mr. Boehner in which he explained the offer.
Separately, a White House official said Mr. Obama will use the Wednesday meeting, set for 5:30 p.m., to press leaders to reopen the government and reiterate his position that he won’t negotiate with Republicans on the debt limit or under the threat of a continued shutdown.
Mr. Boehner, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.), Mr. Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) received invitations to the meeting.
“We’re pleased the president finally recognizes that his refusal to negotiate is indefensible. It’s unclear why we’d be having this meeting if it’s not meant to be a start to serious talks between the two parties,” Brendan Buck, spokesman for Mr. Boehner, said in a statement. Don Stewart, a spokesman Mr. McConnell, said, “We’re a little confused as to the purpose of this meeting,” in light of Mr. Obama’s insistence that he won’t negotiate.
…
It was only a 1 point rise numerically, but it basically increased 30%, right? (3.5 to 4.5%) That’s a big jump when you consider what your mortgage payment will be each month.
Yep. Think convexity…
Yeah, on a $400k house that raises interest on a 30 year loan over $100k I believe.
Which, in turn, explains why what would have been considered a $400K house before the “slight 1% increase” in mortgage rates since May is no longer “worth” $400k.
3.5%, 30-year on $100k = $449.04 monthly payment, first payment is 35% principal
4.5%, 30-year on $100k = $506.69 monthly payment, first payment is 26% principal
A 28.5% increase in interest cost relates to a 12.8% increase in payment, and a 26% DECREASE in the rate at which you pay down principal in the first month (a dramatic decrease on how much you pay down in the early years).
If you actually do the math on the interest cost, then yes, the rate change makes a BIG difference in total interest paid (an increase of $83k on a $400k loan).
If you only care about the monthly payment, the rate increase makes much less of a difference than the interest rate increase might otherwise imply.
Let me help out the Grand Disortionist…
3.5% on a grossly inflated price of $400k=$1800/month… you haven’t even turned the lights on yet.
4.5% on a grossly inflated price of $355k=$1800/month…. and the place is still dark. $300k in interest costs alone. Like paying double you donkeys?
So you see….. when the liars narrative of “houses are bought on the margin” is invoked, a 1% jump translates into 15% price decline of a rapidly depreciating asset at a grossly inflated price.
Interest rates up, housing prices down.
So, renting a place to live wouldn’t cost you anything for 30 years?
$900 per month (your half price, which is baloney for a $355k home), times 360 months = $324k for 30 years of rent.
vs. $292.5k of interest payments (4.5% rate, fully amortized over 30 years).
And yes, there is maintenance and property taxes in addition to the interest cost.
But there is also a tax deduction for interest costs and property taxes.
And over 30 years, rents will rise.
And I haven’t even touched the fact that $900 for a $355,000 home is a really low rent.
Just for fun, I assumed an annual rent increase on the $900.
Flat for 30 years? $324k in rent payments
1% annual increase? $375k
2% annual increase? $438k
3% annual increase? $514k
And if you actually choose a REAL rent for a $355,000 home, you can see the rent cost over 30 years be dramatically higher.
For fun, pick out a high-priced market on Zillow, and see how many square feet $355,000 buys you (a low priced market will skew the number too far in my favor, so I’ll be more conservative).
And then assume you rent that number of square feet at the Zillow rent per foot estimate for the same market–and come up with a more realistic rent number.
OK, no takers?
San Diego County, average sale price per foot, $273, meaning $355k buys you a 1,300 square foot home.
Rent per foot? $1.38.
Renting that same home would cost you $1,794.
Flat rent for 30 years? $646,000
Oh dear…
‘Homes for sale in Orange County have nearly doubled in six months, rising to 6,298 listings as of Thursday, Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing.com said in his latest report. Listings in the Realtor-run multiple listing service were up 98 percent since mid-March, a low in almost nine years of data.’
‘As listings increased, the number of contracts signings began dropping, falling 25 percent since mid-June, he said.’
“The market was starting to cool as values began to dramatically recover from their recession lows a few years ago,” he added. “What looked like a total deal and had attracted a wave of investors had lost a bit of its allure and luster. Investors started looking elsewhere. Homes began receiving fewer offers and buyers shied away from grossly overpriced homes.”
http://www.ocregister.com/lansner/homes-528728-county-sale.html
Also see:
OC homebuilding hits 7-year high
So, listings fell from 12k down to 3k, and are now back up to 6k? Is that about right?
Going back to 1996 (when the population of Orange County was lower, by the way), the average number of homes sold per month in Orange County was about 3,750–per Zillow.
If you expect for a balanced market the number of listings should equal 3 times the monthly sales pace (average days on market about 3 months in a “balanced” market), then for it to be a “balanced” market, Orange County should have +/- 11k homes listed for sale at any given time.
Listings have gone from about a quarter of “normal” to about a half of “normal”.
For what it’s worth, the average number of sales for the first 8 months of 2013 in Orange County was about 3,200 homes per month. 6k homes listed represents about 2 months of supply at the current level of sales.
While we are trending back toward normal levels of inventory, we have not yet overshot to levels that are too high relative to current sales pace.
‘As listings increased, the number of contracts signings began dropping, falling 25 percent since mid-June’
‘down to 3k, and are now back up to 6k’
It’s coming from a low base. I realize you haven’t been around here long enough to get the inside HBB joke.
I’ve been posting since what, about 2005/2006? Is that not long enough?
Do you remember the joke then?
‘Want to move to a new house in Oakland? If you’re like most of us, you might not be buying in Grand Lake, Adams Point, Lakeshore, Crocker Highlands or Trestle Glen because houses in those neighborhoods are actually 136% more expensive then they were last year, with a median home sale price of $743k, according to new data released this week from ZipRealty.’
If you think that means you might have to settle for Longfellow, Santa Fe, or another up and coming part of North Oakland–or for the Laurel or the Dimond, take a deep breath, because housing prices overall in Oakland have gone up 76% from last summer.’
‘Houses in Oakland, according to Zip, are still only half or less of the median home sale price in San Francisco, but the median cost in Oakland has zoomed from $245k to $432k in just a year–a much bigger increase than in San Francisco.’
http://oaklandlocal.com/2013/09/wanna-buy-a-house-in-oakland-its-gonna-cost-76-more-this-year/
Everybody wants to live in Oakland. I wonder if it’s possible people are paying/borrowing too much?
I remember the phrase “coming from a low base”, but candidly, I don’t remember the context.
And since you couldn’t pay me enough to live in Oakland, $1 for a house would be too expensive for me…
Yet you overpaid by 250% for a depreciating asset in a town just like Oakland.
A distinction without a difference.
“just like Oakland”
lol
And you got suckered into believing “its different here”….. Like millions of other suckers
Your math is wrong because you ignore that most households don’t see their incomes go up to match those payment increases you mentioned at higher interest rates. With the long-term fixed rate mortgages that U.S. households customarily use to finance home purchases, higher interest rates translate into lower purchase prices for new buyers, not higher payments for existing buyers.
Quit trying to confuse the sheeple with irrelevant information.
“Quit trying to confuse the sheeple with irrelevant information.”
Now you’re starting to see just how the Grand Distortionist operates.
I have a very simple question:
Are my calculations regarding the mortgage payments at the two different interest rates incorrect?
I have a simple question;
What is your motive for distorting reality?
The math is the math. There is no distortion in the numbers. Implying that a 30% increase in interest rate equals a 30% increase in monthly payment is a distortion of reality.
And distortions are distortions.. and you’re the master of them here.
CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!
Yes
Smart move by Obama meeting the Wallstreet overloards. Now just watch how the republicans will fold like noodles after hearing these.
Via Bloomberg,
Blankfein - “You can litigate these policy issues, you can relitigate these policy issues in a public forum, but they shouldn’t use the threat of causing the U.S. to fail on its obligation to repay debt as a cudgel.”
*BLANKFEIN: BANK CEOS EXPLAINED IN MTG HOW BAD DEFAULT WOULD BE
*BLANKFEIN SAYS HE’S `NOT ANXIOUS’ TO BE WITNESS TO DEFAULT
*BLANKFEIN SAYS ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF DEFAULT WOULD BE `SEVERE’
“There’s no debate on the seriousness of the U.S. not paying its debt,” Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan tells reporters after he, other executives met with President Obama.
Default might affect small businesses, Treasuries
Debt ceiling fight in Aug. 2011 led “to a slowdown in the economy, and we’re facing that again”
Bankers are “in a position to really know early what the consequences are,” Goldman’s Lloyd Blankfein tells reporters
Says bankers “listened” in conversation with Obama, then told him “exactly how bad it would be”
Blankfein: “There’s precedent for a government shutdown; there’s no precedent for default”
“We’re the most important economy in the world, we’re the reserve currency in the world, payments have to go out to people”
“If money doesn’t flow in, then money doesn’t flow out, so we really haven’t seen this before and I’m not anxious to be part of the process to witness this”
And it really is a hoot because anyone with even a vestigial brain stem can look at that gaggle of idiots and crooks and reason, ‘So… the @ssholes who got us INTO this mess are now advising The Head Idiot on how to get us OUT of it?’
Yes…that’s what the republicrats in DC believe anyway.
An evil man surrounded by evil men engaged in evil acts.
Remember I said the same thing about Bush back in 2008 right before I was banned from the HBB for 4 years?
I don’t think that’s why you were banned….
Who said it was? Only you.
Um, I just said I didn’t think that’s why you were banned?
Sensing a pattern here….
How is it that you sense anything when you misinterpret the first post?
And then arguing it….
That too.
well if that doesn’t change your mind then i don’t know what will…no one holds the interest of the american people at heart more than that group of outstanding gentlmen.
some talking head blamed the slowdown on the shutdown- it just started monday !
‘Homes for sale in Orange County have nearly doubled in six months, rising to 6,298 listings as of Thursday, Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing.com said in his latest report. Listings in the Realtor-run multiple listing service were up 98 percent since mid-March, a low in almost nine years of data.’
Test
Posting is almost real-time now. What gives?
Here’s the latest wake-up on the “Affordable Care Act” for the masses: a post from Facebook from someone with a pre-existing condition:
“I actually made it through this morning at 8:00 A.M. I have a preexisting condition (Type 1 Diabetes) and my income base was 45K-55K annually I chose tier 2 “Silver Plan” and my monthly premiums came out to $597.00 with $13,988 yearly deductible!!! There is NO POSSIBLE way that I can afford this so I “opt-out” and chose to continue along with no insurance. I received an email tonight at 5:00 P.M. informing me that my fine would be $4,037 and could be attached to my yearly income tax return. Then you make it to the “REPERCUSSIONS PORTION” for “non-payment” of yearly fine. First, your drivers license will be suspended until paid, and if you go 24 consecutive months with “Non-Payment” and you happen to be a home owner, you will have a federal tax lien placed on your home. You can agree to give your bank information so that they can easy “Automatically withdraw” your “penalties” weekly, bi-weekly or monthly! This by no means is “Free” or even “Affordable.”
By the way, that penalty for not having insurance? $95 or 1% of income the first year, whichever is higher… so yeah, the median income earner will be stuck $5000 on their tax bill for not having insurance if they decide to not go with coverage… LOLZ. The riots will commence shortly.
“…my income base was 45K-55K annually I chose tier 2 “Silver Plan” and my monthly premiums came out to $597.00 with $13,988 yearly deductible!!!”
Wow, that’s over 40% of a $50k/yr income [if] something happens. Silver taste on a Bronze budget?
The riots will commence shortly.
+1 Got that right.
1% of 55K is 550.
Seriously. What a load of tripe. $550 a year for my family’s health insurance OMG! We’ll all go broke! And they’ll take my car. Waaaaaaah!
Who writes this crap?
Bottom line:
If your medical expenses (including insurance premium) exceed 9.5% of your adjusted income, you get a subsidy.
$95 or 1% of income the first year, whichever is higher… so yeah, the median income earner will be stuck $5000
Wouldn’t the median income earner be hit with a penalty more on the order of $500.00, rather than $5K?
Your $4K penalty suggests that you have an income of upwards of $400K…
I hope Republicans in Congress like the Fed’s quantitative easing policy, because their negotiating tactics on the debt ceiling are increasing the prospects that QE3 will last forever with no taper in sight.
ft dot com
Last updated: October 3, 2013 12:36 am
Mounting Wall Street fears of US default
By Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Gina Chon in Washington
Wall Street leaders expressed mounting fears yesterday over the prospect of the first default by the US of its debt obligations as the impasse continued on Capitol Hill on the second day of the government showdown.
“There is precedent for a government shutdown, but there is no precedent for a default,” said Lloyd Blankfein, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, after a meeting between President Barack Obama and top Wall Street chief executives. He was citing the threat of default if Washington’s feuding lawmakers fail to agree to extend the borrowing limit by October 17.
A highly anticipated meeting Wednesday evening between Mr Obama, John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House, and other leaders ended without any sign of progress.
“They will not negotiate,” Mr Boehner said, standing outside the White House. “At some point we have to allow the process to work out.”
Moments later, Harry Reid, the top Senate Democrat, accused Mr Boehner of not accepting a “lifeline” that had been thrown his way after Democrats promised to begin negotiations on a long term budget once the Republican moved to pass a “clean” short term budget that ended the shutdown. Mr Reid said spending levels, healthcare and agriculture, among other issues, were on the table. Mr Boehner has rejected the offer.
“My friend John Boehner cannot take yes for an answer,” Mr Reid said.
Asked whether there was a risk of a debt default, Mr Reid said: “I believe based on what we’ve seen . . . the performance of the [Republican Senator Ted] Cruz led House, I think that it looks like these people are headed where they want to go.”
The political wrangling came as Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal Reserve president, said that a possible disruption in the collection of reliable government statistics due to the shutdown could further delay a “taper” of the Fed’s monthly $85bn bond-buying programme.
It could “put out further into the future the time when we can get a real assessment” on the state of the economy,” he said. “It would make me less willing to remove accommodation until we had good data,” he said.
…
“the performance of the [Republican Senator Ted] Cruz led House”
Zing!
Israel and Saudi Arabia are coordinating policies to counter US détente with Iran
Associates of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu Wednesday, Oct. 2, leaked word to the media that high-ranking Gulf emirate officials had recently visited Israel, signaling a further widening in the rift between Israel and President Barack Obama over his outreach to Tehran. These visits were in line with the ongoing exchanges Israel was holding with Saudi and Gulf representatives to align their actions for offsetting any potential American easing-up on Iran’s nuclear program.
DEBKAfile reports that this is the first time Israel official sources have publicly aired diplomatic contacts of this kind in the region. They also reveal that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates have agreed to synchronize their lobbying efforts in the US Congress to vote down the Obama administration’s moves on Iran.
http://www.debka.com/article/23323/Israel-and-Saudi-Arabia-are-coordinating-policies-to-counter-US-détente-with-Iran-
I have an idea for fixing the Washington budget mess: Make it illegal for Congressmen to conduct any political fundraising activities within one year (before or after) of any government shutdown which occurs while they are in office. Any funds raised during this two-year period would be forfeited and the Congressman who raised them would be kicked out of office.
Just thinking outside of the box here about how to fix our political mess.
One windfall from the shutdown? Political donations
Voters walk through a plethera of campaign signs after casting their votes at Immanuel Lutheran Church on November 6, 2012 in Kansas City, Mo.
by Krissy Clark
Marketplace for Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Right now Republicans and Democrats aren’t just competing over the best public policies to move the government forward. They’re also competing over how much money they’re making while the government has ground to a halt.
The Democratic National Committee says it’s raised nearly $2 million online since the weekend. DNC spokesman Mo Elleithee said Monday alone was record-breaking: $850,000 in 24 hours; 30,000 individual donors, many of them first-time.
“It was our biggest fundraising day since before the 2012 election,” he said. “I think it was a combination of a lot of excitement about Obamacare about to go live, as well as a lot of frustration with the dysfunction in Congress and the Republican shutdown.”
Over at the Republican National Committee, press secretary Kirsten Kukowski sees the Democrats fundraising windfall differently. “We’re kind of wondering if the reason they’ve refused to come to the table over the last couple of days is because they feel like they’re getting something out of it monetarily.”
But the Republicans are getting something out of it too. Kukowski says the RNC has raised over $1 million since Monday morning and seen “a great response” on the government shutdown and on Obamacare.
Stephen S. Smith, a political scientist at Washington University, says the money flowing to both parties during the government shutdown isn’t some lucky coincidence. “They’ve been strategizing about this for months,” he said. “They’ve prepared mailings. They’ve prepared emails. They’ve got fancy websites.”
Lest you get cynical about all the donations that are flooding in to both parties in a moment of self-made political crisis, Sheila Krumholz, executive director for the Center for Responsive Politics says at least it’s a sign that people are finally engaged. “Political participation frankly is not a bad thing in and of itself. If we had millions of individuals giving small donations, we’d likely have a much healthier political system.”
Of course, we don’t know exactly who is giving the donations right now — big donors or small — because the Federal Elections Commission, which monitors that stuff, is shut down.
My thought was to start the clock on term limits for all current members of Congress whenever a shutdown occurs or a budget is not submitted.
Watch out for vampires and zombies this Halloween season!
‘Vampire’ foreclosures are what’s keeping bank inventory high, analyst says
October 2, 2013, 4:56 PM
As if rising mortgage rates aren’t scary enough, analysts have identified a lurking threat to housing: “vampire” properties.
These “vampire” properties are bank-owned foreclosed homes in which prior owners continue to live, as defined by RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace.
Former owners live in 47% of U.S. bank-owned properties, according to RealtyTrac. These properties are “sucking the life out of the housing market,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace.
Vampire properties should not be confused with their creepy cousins, zombie foreclosures. According to RealtyTrac, zombie foreclosures are properties that have been vacated by the homeowner but are “languishing” in the foreclosure process. About one-in-five homes in foreclosure across the country have been vacated by the homeowner.
…
Maybe the bankers are waiting for their hedge fund buddies to get the rentals ready before they evict the ex loanowners.
“These “vampire” properties are bank-owned foreclosed homes in which prior owners continue to live, as defined by RealtyTrac, an online foreclosure marketplace.”
This phenomenon should have never been allowed to happened.
“Former owners live in 47% of U.S. bank-owned properties…”
That 47% keeps popping up.
Not to rain on the Facebook ‘victim’, but 1% of $50,000 is $500, not $5000.
Don’t get me wrong: Not endorsing ACA by any means, though I realize it might work for some. I am viscerally opposed to ham-fisted tactics that constrain my options to choose my own path. Such as financial penalties for not toeing the party mandate.
It would be another thing entirely were ahansen to have the OPTION of purchasing insurance, with no strings attached. Strip the FIRE sector out of their role as toll collectors, and the costs would be affordable. Forty per cent less, by my calculation.
That’s right. Forty per cent of your ACA fees are going to bubble-gum popping land whales with out-thrust lower lips in the FIRE sector. The next phase of evolution for the erstwhile union goons, fed civil service autocrats, AFT members, real-t-whores and DC/MoCo public sector ‘workers’.
Hey, what’re ya gonna do? (*shrugs shoulders*)
Gotta keep them fake voting rolls populated!
Sorry. I don’t get to opt out of financing the NSA or our various foreign incursions to “defend” freedom either. But I (arguably) benefit from the system, so I pay my fair share of it –whether I think I use it or not.
Now, what the insurance industry has to do with public health is beyond me. Get the brokers and middlemen out of the process and costs will drop like a stone.
Holding out for Medicare. I’m not entirely optimistic….
“…bubble-gum popping land whales with out-thrust lower lips…”
+1 Now that’s original. Hehe.
It looks like this sucker is going down, again!
Is it too early at this point to assume the crash position?
No end to Washington shutdown in sight
• Tackle the debt ceiling, says one Republican
• Holiday shopping season at risk from prolonged shutdown