The Housing Bubble

The green crap isn’t going to go down in price. Rather, the black crap will burn until its price surpasses the green crap. That’s the only way the green crap will be viable. The question is the infrastructure. You can’t switch from the black crap to the green crap overnight. Someone’s gotta start the process well in advance. And who would that be? Not the vaunted private sector, that’s for sure.

“Someone’s gotta start the process … Not the vaunted private sector”

I used to be a contractor with DoE working on Recovery Act funded projects. For every Solyndra that makes the headlines, there were hundreds and thousands of small companies burning up taxpayer cash and producing nothing. Oh the tales I could tell were it not for confidentiality agreements.

And by the way, DCAA (the Defense Contract Audit Agency) has a backlog of audits going back several years in some regional offices. This spoken by someone who knows…

“The green crap isn’t going to go down in price”.

——-

Uhhh… on a measure of price per unit of energy, it certainly is. The technology is absolutely getting better. The more people adopt it, the more the fixed costs of production and implementation are spread out.

Solar energy really isn’t a good bargain in a lot of the country right now, even with subsidies. I turned down Solar City because it wasn’t going to save me much in the short run and because there are already better panels available in Europe. In 4-5 more years, the technology will be far ahead of today.

Also, the prices were too high for the inverter and they still think they have the upper hand as far as letting customers (leasees) sell back to the grid. In reality, utilites are going to stop letting people sell back to the grid during the middle of the day because the energy really isn’t needed then. There is also the issue of storage (batteries). Solar City, the way it was explained to me, doesn’t really have options for that.

here were hundreds and thousands of small companies burning up taxpayer cash and producing nothing.

You can say that again. I have had couple of friends who worked as government contractors at some point of their career. Both told me the same thing.

‘the vaunted private sector’

Capitalism is just a word. We use it to describe people getting up and going to work. Cooking meals, or changing tires. Where to put a gas station, or not. All the decisions that are made to provide consumers with what they need, and if you get it right, you might make a buck. What a horrible system! It’s only given us everything we have. Don’t lecture me on the Soviets, or Cubans or Yugoslavia. Turn it all over to the government, and we’d have utopia!

‘Evelina Gonzalez was supposed to undergo cancer surgery in July following chemotherapy but wound up shuttling from hospital to hospital in search of an available operating table. On the crest of her left breast, a mocha-colored tumor doubled in size and now bulges through her white spandex tank top.’

‘Gonzalez is on a list of 31 breast cancer patients waiting to have tumors removed at one of Venezuela’s biggest medical facilities, Maracay’s Central Hospital. But like legions of the sick across the country, she’s been neglected by a health care system doctors say is collapsing after years of deterioration.’

‘Almost everything needed to mend and heal is in critically short supply: needles, syringes and paraffin used in biopsies to diagnose cancer; drugs to treat it; operating room equipment; X-ray film and imaging paper; blood and the reagents needed so it can be used for transfusions.’

‘Last month, the government suspended organ donations and transplants. At least 70 percent of radiotherapy machines, precisely what Gonzalez will need once her tumor is removed, are now inoperable in a country with 19,000 cancer patients - meaning fewer than 5,000 can be treated, said Dr. Douglas Natera, president of the Venezuelan Medical Federation.’

“Two months ago we asked the government to declare an emergency,” said Natera, whose doctors group is the country’s largest. “We got no response.”

So, since highly corrupt and third world Venezuela can’t make socialized healthcare work, it’s a failure? Nevermind that it works quite well in places like Canada, Norway and Sweden.

like Canada, Norway and Sweden.

Many people may not like to hear this truth but I will say it anyway.

We are closer to Venezuela than Canada, Norway or Sweden.

‘highly corrupt and third world Venezuela can’t make socialized healthcare work’

Wait a minute. Are you saying brown skinned people can’t make socialism work? What about the Soviets? They were kinda white.

And how can corruption happen in a socialist country? The profit motive is removed. All needs are taken care of. Dang, I just can’t see any reason for people to be corrupt.

I don’t know how well this stuff goes down in Canada or Sweden. But this isn’t Canada. You know, those people are robots. I drove to and back from Alaska. Watch their news sometime. If the government said, ‘run outside and take your clothes off’ they would all do it, in unison.

I don’t live in Canada. I don’t have that creepy Queen on my money. And thank the heavens.

They were kinda white.

LOL….I think they are Caucasian whites.

And let’s not forget Venezuela is an Oil rich country. Could have been Norway of South America. BUT IT DIDN’T.

We are closer to Venezuela than Canada, Norway or Sweden.

Do you mean physically closer?

I still can’t get my head around this corruption in a socialist country. The main motivation in being corrupt is stuff. Wanting stuff is greedy, right? So am I to believe there is greed in a totally socialist system?

The culture of Canada is different from America, but not tremendously. We have many things in common. Also, if we extended our Medicare system to cover every American, we would have something very similar to the Canadian system. Medicare is probably the most popular institution in American life.

Do you mean physically closer?

That would be Sweden, my obtuse friend.

‘Medicare is probably the most popular institution in American life’

As long as someone else is paying for it, what’s not to like?

“that creepy Queen on my money…”

On the two dollar coin, she has a bear behind. That’s kinda funny.

The problem with socialism is that some people always want to be in charge. People who want to be in charge can’t be trusted.

Wanting stuff is greedy, right?

I don’t think most people would consider wanting things to be greedy

So am I to believe there is greed in a totally socialist system?

There is probably grees everywhere. However, Venezuela is not totally socialist. There are private businesses.

There are private businesses.

That’s what Chavez missed. Maduro will take care of that hopefully.

‘There is probably grees (greed) everywhere’

Hmm. So no one system is perfect? Or guaranteed to work in a given situation? So how about we have a multitude of options, and people can make their best effort to pick the best one for them. If it doesn’t suit them, they can quit and try something else?

It’s tempting to say being free to choose ones options is the best system, and leads to the optimum outcome, given all the variables and imperfections.

Of course, the opposite would be to force everyone into one system. Have a few people make all the decisions for them. And if that doesn’t work, everybody is forced to stay in that system until the few deciders either fix it, or don’t. Etc.

Now Ben, stop using that dratted common sense… You don’t have any citations or something… Where is your scientific research to support that… Nothing is true unless there are at least 5 government sponsored research studies on the testicle size of gophers showing it is true, and you must cite them!

“The main motivation in being corrupt is stuff. “

You forgot power. “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Money is a proxy for power.

If Gonzalez were wealthy, she would have been able to get treatment in Venezuela or in some other country. If she lived in America and could not afford treatment, would she have been better off? Hospitals are required to provide emergency care to stabilize patients. But they are not required to provide necessary, non-emergency treatment to people who cannot afford it.

Ben

You might not have our head of state on your money but your laws were founded on her ancestors - just like ours.

In Canada we are proud to have our Queen on our money and all that she represents.

If you don’t like it you have the right to say it - and use your own while visiting us.

We like Yankee dollars too ! Everywhere up here.

Why don’t you guys accept ours down there ?

Because the Federal Reserve says so.

“Many people may not like to hear this truth but I will say it anyway. We are closer to Venezuela than Canada, Norway or Sweden.”

You’ve obviously never been to Venezuela, or you were blasted out of your crippled mind and didn’t pay attention to your surroundings. You have no idea what you’re talking about.

You don’t understand Canada at all Ben. We’re only slightly less sceptical of our institutions than the US, which might change with what’s going on with Toronto and the Senate.

One other thing, ours are bigger and we can keep them up longer*.

* housing bubbles that is.

So how about we have a multitude of options, and people can make their best effort to pick the best one for them. If it doesn’t suit them, they can quit and try something else?

Well, if we’re talking about health insurance here, we could go beyond Canada and consider what they have in Germany and Switzerland, where there are many fairly small non-profit insurers.

Al, your mayors certainly party harder than those in the US.

Al Ben

The mayor has kept the booze industry profitable and now is working on full employment in another one.

Anyways, nothing wrong with him - he supports the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey club !

And has thrown half of the do nothing staff out on their -

Downlow Joe has entered the building.

If you want to see a real downlow brother, type “Bill deBlasio wife” into GOOG.

Liberace!

Hello Donkey

You’re in central or south TX, right bluestar? Most of the country doesn’t have the same cost/benefit tradeoffs as you with solar. Also, are you on a natural gas grid? Probably not. Urban areas are still going to need nat gas for decades to come for heating. Electricity from solar will run the fan, but is less efficient for heating the house or running the hot water heater, unless you go to tankless (which has product and installation costs).

If we had a better grid, we could move some of that solar from TX up to other places, that would be nice.

What I really want to know about nuke-u-lar energy is whether it can lessen the supply/demand problems for fossil fuels.

“My humble little solar array generates over 1 megawatt of excess power a year.”

Megawatt is a unit of instantaneous electrical power; perhaps you mean 1 megawatt-hour which is a unit of energy. I mWH generated over a year averages out to 114 watts, approximately equal to burning (2) 60 watt lamps 24 hours per day over the year. Still, I think that is a good showing for a small residence array.

Suite Joey Blue Eyes:
I live in DFW. I have a active Nat. Gas well about 5,000 feet from my property but no gas line to my house so I use a 65,000 BTU fireplace insert for winter heating. I leased my mineral rights to Chesapeake and get about $65.00 a year in royalties a year. Seems like a really shitty deal since it took nature 35 million years to build up that shale gas rock layer and it will be gone in just 20 years of production.

“Gas-fired generation down 14 percent year-to-year in October. Over the last year, areas like ERCOT and CAISO have continued to see tremendous growth in wind capacity.”

http://www.elp.com/articles/2013/11/gas-fired-generation-down-14-percent-year-to-year-in-october.html

Speaking of wind energy:
“Microsoft enters 20-year deal for Texas wind power”
http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2022188649_apxmicrosoftwindpower.html

Texas just turned on a new 342 kV electrical transmission system to route that W. Texas wind into the N. Texas markets.
http://www.elp.com/blogs/eye-on-the-grid/2013/11/where-natural-gas-and-power-transmission-intersect.html

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/real_time_system_conditions.html

Hi-Z,
You are correct. I generate 1.2 megawatt hours excess per year. My current electric bill is a -$207.00 credit. Did you know that the spot price for 1 Mwh in Texas is up to $9,000 if the grid hit peak demand? ERCOT raised the price to entice new power plants in to the market.

Bluestar AKA Jack Smith

You’re really getting hosed on that Chesapeake lease. As production on your land falls, the royalties will fall off too. Was there any way you could’ve held off a few yrs and hope that nat gas prices would rise?

Do you have a well for water? $65/month in gas royalties doesn’t seem worth the risk of screwing up your water.

It’s unfortunate you don’t have a natural gas line, probably due to lack of population density? I have a big vented nat gas fireplace in my house that supplies some of the peak hour heating on the lower floors. I’m adding thermal mass to the top floor to try to minimize any heating at all up there. (There is HVAC up there, but I keep the vents 75% closed and let the heat rise.)

I’m giving myself until 2016 or 17 before looking back into solar. My electricity use is 400-500 kwh per month in fall/winter/spring. In summer it is 750-950 kwh bc of A/C (those #s are prior to insulation, should be no higher than 800 kwh next year). The marginal cost of my electricity is about 8c/kwh (there are a couple extra cents for taxes and transmission costs). Right now solar panels don’t pay for themselves due to the lack of truly sunny days here.

About your credits on your elec bill… utilities can’t actually use most of the power people sell back to the grid. It’s a waste. Eventually they are going to stop or drastically reduce the practice of letting people sell back to the grid.

Bluestar,

That math seems to have you all confused. 1 Megawatthour costs $50 here at retail.

Your solar panel might have been assembled all here in the USA, but that doesn’t mean the energy intensive parts were made here, or that the rare semimetals were mined here. Nice if they were though. I do love the whole solar cell technology, but it is negative on energy input vs. output. Subsidizing this on a large scale has been one of the biggest boondoggles of the Grand Bubble. Pulling 20 years energy consumption ahead into a few compressed years.

This is really weird. I’m pretty sure my neighbors wouldn’t like this either. Who would have thought Rock n Roll could amp up solar power?

“Big beats bolster solar cell efficiency”
The high frequencies and pitch found in pop and rock music cause vibrations that enhanced energy generation in solar cells leading to a 40 per cent increase in efficiency of the solar cells.

http://phys.org/news/2013-11-big-bolster-solar-cell-efficiency.html

Blue Skye,
I did the research on all the components that went into my system and unless someone lied about their supply chain then I stand by my statement.

Would you please give me a link to a science or government web site that backs up your claim on negative energy input vs. output?
I cited several official sources last week that said current solar panel production pays back the input energy in less than 3 years. In fact, last year was a milestone in that the total energy used in all solar panel manufacturing from 1970 to 2011 was paid back and has sharply reversed the net energy consumed vs. produced. Some panel manufactures have cut input costs by over 70% due to improved processing and new types of materials. In 2009 a kilo of pure silicon was $400 and you can buy all you want now for less than $20. http://pvinsights.com/

Suite Joey Blue Eyes,
RE: Natural Gas royalties
Read that again, it’s $65 a YEAR on a 1/3 acre lease. I got a signing bonus back in 2009 so if I spread that out over the total length of the lease it averages out to about $50 a month. The city of Fort Worth is currently suing several gas drillers for deducting millions of dollars from their royalty payments to cover phantom overhead charges, advertizing costs and fracking waste disposal. I never signed a lease on my rental property but they drilled the area anyway. There is supposed to be a law in the Texas Railroad Commission rules that covers payments to people that don’t sign leases within a oil & gas section but it takes decades to recover your money from the drillers.

Bluestar,

I don’t mean to be evasive. I work in high vacuum applications; computer chip, flat panel coating, LED, semiconductor stuff manufacturing for about 30 years. I am a Magna Cum Laude Engineer with decades of high tech bleeding edge experience. I have been to go-to guy for how to pull coating equipment to the necessary vacuum for a lot of these processes. The solar boom here made me a fortune. I have worked with the scientists and physicists that design and the engineers that build the thin film coating equipment that made all sorts of solar cells in the US and Europe. They told me in whispers. I believe them. No, this isn’t published that I know of, but what I have read that is published is full of BS. Start where ever you want in the stream of materials to show a positive energy return kind of BS. Math is a tool to give insight or to deceive, depends on the inputs. to see the big picture without reliable math inputs, look at what is being done (or not done) by those who have only their own money in the game. Unisolar, probably the best of the best, is titsup. First Solar, now in GE’s scrap yard. & etc.

My dog in this is the return on investment. The industry has all but died with the loss of government subsidy. If there was a REAL return of a few years, the demand would be insatiable.

Personally, I think we need a revolution in energy technology. I am disappointed in what the posers, fraudsters and snake oil salesmen have wasted our confidence and money on in my lifetime. I applaud you for doing what you think is good however.

Blue Skye,

Thanks for the insight from inside the lab. I bet you would enjoy reading “What Technology Wants” by Kevin Kelly. There is no doubt billions have been spent chasing the elusive photon and billions more will surly follow. I wish energy storage had more priority than wind, solar and biofuels. They have the cart in front of the horse I think.

Bluestar AKA Jack Smith

I ain’t talking about one at a time solar houses. I’m talking mass power. And it can be done a lot cheaper and better than whatever scam is going on in England. There should be nuclear power plants hooked up to desalinization plants all over the place. The deserts could bloom.

I’ve driven one. It was pretty fun. Toasted my friend’s Mustang Cobra to 100mph, where we stopped accelerating to avoid Johnny Law. Lots of torque straight off the line.A very fancy interior. The infotainment screen in the center stack is bigger than an ipad. In most cars, it’s like 5″ max. Also the quietness is different, but manageble if you’ve driven a golf cart or other electric car.

I’d never buy one. Way too expensive.

I’d never buy one. Way too expensive.

But if you were looking for a car in that class, think about the money saved on gas and maintenance? I think if a person was serious about a car in that class, they could definitely make a financial case for it relative to its competitors. Especially if they have no need to make long trips in it.

“I wouldn’t buy one.”

If you were looking at a typical Mercedes, BMW, or Audi and then you test drove the Tesla S, I think you’d buy the Tesla S. Better product _and_ less dicking around with dealers on maintenance. For people who know cars and have shopped those makes, you’ll get props for having the Tesla.

BTW, don’t think for a minute that governments (US and German) don’t subsidize AMG (Mercedes), BMW, or VW (Audi) when they open assembly places in the US or when they build the engines in Germany. Corporate welfare is _everywhere_. States will give tax credits to get manufacturing jobs, happens all the time. And Germany subsidizes its heavy industries, not because they’re stupid, but bc it keeps high end jobs there.

I don’t get why reptiles are so against Tesla. Here is the best car for the money, an American original… and reptiles are rooting against it. But they have no problem with states giving tax credits to foreign companies to build cars here. A tax giveaway is a tax giveaway. At least Tesla has an innovative product.

“Especially if they have no need to make long trips in it”

The kind of people buying Tesla S are using it to go from Bethesda to Georgetown or Palo Alto to San Fran. For the most part, they wouldn’t think of driving long distance no matter what car they had. And there are high voltage chargers in the big cities these days anyway. DC is taking away parking space to add chargers for electric cars. Also, many streets have special parking set aside for all-electric cars. Regular cars can not park in them, even if empty.

From DC, anywhere in the Northeast = Amtrak Acela, anywhere else = air travel. I assume LA-SF types are the same. The people driving crazy miles/commuting in cars are not the 1%ers.

IMO, the maintenance thing doesn’t make sense since all the luxury brands offer comprehensive maintenace packages for new cars and leases.

When Tesla has to deal with the resale/used car model, then we’ll see how they compete on maintenace, which for most used lux cars is killer.

IMO, you buy one for the torque, style, and interior, and ‘cool factor’, not for any supposed savings on maintenance or fuel.

-Tesla is selling to the trendy/first adapters/gotta have it first types right now. These people will ditch Tesla at the drop of a hat the minute Tesla leaves them stuck somewhere, or something newer/trendier comes along.

-Tesla thinks it’s going to tell every car dealer in America to go pound sand, and sell direct. Good luck with that. At best, a long expensive court battle (times 50), even if they eventually win.

-Too many cars bursting into flames after accidents. Can’t be helped with lithium ion batteries. Some fires may not happen until a week/weeks after the accident. Mandatory battery replacement after an accident/impact? I’m sure the insurance companies are going to love that.

-At a time when they typical schlub can’t afford to buy a $25K car, selling a mainstream model priced at $50K isn’t going to float. But they need a mainstream model to help pay for the overhead.

-Maintenance? About the only maintenance you do on new cars for the first 80-100K miles is oil changes. If you follow the manufacturers typical oil change schedule (not the BS “Dealer recommended schedule every 3000 miles), you would do about 12 oil changes.

12 x $25 = $300 over the first 100K miles

The only other thing is brake pads. the regenerative braking on a Tesla might save a little on brake wear. But brake pads are cheap. Nobody can tell me that Tesla brake rotors will be cheaper than a regular car.

Tesla sells a car for the trendy/first adapters, who have the financials to take the depreciation hit on a $100K car, even if it goes to “zero”. How big is that market? Probably not big enough to pay all of the bills.

But what do I know?

Tesla is working on a more mainstream model to compete with the high end Accord/low end Lexus/Acura. Starting around 30k. Not sure when that’s coming out. I think they might have a very limited number now, but I’m not sure. All I see in the DC showroom is the model S.

“IMO, the maintenance thing doesn’t make sense since all the luxury brands offer comprehensive maintenace packages for new cars and leases. ”

Having owned quite a few expensive cars, let me tell you, the lack of an engine does not = the lack of necessary maintenance. My high end car spent tons of time in the shop and it was NEVER there for engine issues. Suspension, electronics, noises in the cabin, alignment… However, never anything engine or transmission related. The only “engine” repair I ever had to do on a luxury car was change the oil.

Not saying that the Tesla isn’t good (I’m interested in it and may take one out for a test drive). But just because it doesn’t have a dino burning engine doesn’t mean that it’s going to be trouble free. We’ve gotten pretty good at making reliable internal combustion engines and transmissions over the last 100 years. We’re still having a little trouble with all the other crap on a high end car (scent infusion system in the new S class anyone)..

IMO, the maintenance thing doesn’t make sense since all the luxury brands offer comprehensive maintenace packages for new cars and leases.

When Tesla has to deal with the resale/used car model, then we’ll see how they compete on maintenace, which for most used lux cars is killer.

Good point, if you’re only planning on keeping it less than 4 years. But even then it might be very nice for the resale/residual value. We’ll see…but to me it seems like a huge deal if you plan to keep it long term.

Jetfixr I agree with most of your points except I believe that the fires were overplayed by the media. The reports I heard were that for those two examples it would have been normal for a gasoline car to also catch fire.

Regarding the zero maintenance thing for most cars to 100k miles, than has not been the case at all for my BMW, which I think would be a nearly-direct competitor.

The solution is obvious……

Buy American.

Of course, the price of repair parts is about #85 on my list of decision makers when I buy a car.

I still wistfully look back on the days when you could walk into any parts store in the country, say “Gimme a Chevy/Ford/Mopar alternator”, and the only question was “single or double grooved pulley?”

Or when a typical Cragar SS, when your only decisions were 14 or 15 inch, width, and 4.5 or 4.75″ bolt pattern.

The proliferation of different makes has killed the old time parts store. Now all they do is take the order, and ship from a central warehouse.

Yeah, I’d probably prefer a battery fire than a gasoline fire.

But at least with a gas tank, it’s either burning, or it’s not. The battery pack can be burning, with no external clues. It would suck if you thought it was okay, then parked the car in the garage.

The typical Porsche guy would do fine with a Tesla.

The typical US American suburban soccer mom, whose knowledge of mechanical/electrical systems is limited at best……….not so much.

Jetfixr, another thing you’re forgetting about Tesla is that they own their supply chain and make most of their own parts. This increases their margins more and gives them much more quality control. They can make larger margins on each dollar of sales price while also keeping a reputation for higher qual. I think only having 1 or 2 models plays into this as well. They’re not trying to be GM or Chrysler (Fiat) with so many different lines and products… some of which are good but quite a few of which stink. Having to control so many part venders and designs is part of that.

Tesla is taking sales, but they aren’t really taking market share. The world is just becoming more bifurcated between the haves and have nots, and so the market for expensive Teslas is bigger than you might think:

For example, here’s Mercedes
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/mercedes-benz-october-sales-rise-111740058.html

In short:
October sales of 126k reached a new record for MB, with US deliveries up 25% (over Oct last year I assume-poorly written article).

BMW and Porshe/VW/Audi are telling pretty much the same story.

“-Maintenance? About the only maintenance you do on new cars for the first 80-100K miles is oil changes. If you follow the manufacturers typical oil change schedule (not the BS “Dealer recommended schedule every 3000 miles), you would do about 12 oil changes.

12 x $25 = $300 over the first 100K miles”

Maybe for some cars. But, let me tell you, that’s not typical for cars that cost 50-100K (as the Tesla does).

My last car (Mercedes) went in for scheduled maintenance every 6-12 months (about 10K miles). Depending on the service type (A/B/C, etc.. The car tells you what it needs/wants) it would be anywhere from about 400 to 1200 dollars. The oil for that car was close to 100 bucks, IIRC. Then you have about 10 filters that need changing (cabin air, engine, oil, blah, blah, blah).

And, if you really need something repaired, hold on to your hat. That car was in for a few repairs that, while covered under warranty, would have cost 1000’s if I had to actually pay for it. The one that comes to mind was the air suspension; one of them let go. That was a 3K repair, IIRC. And the one wear out part that I did need to replace (brakes) were over 2K for a full set.

Basically, if you’re looking at something like a Tesla, you’re used to very expensive repairs for the other cars that are in it’s price range. So, you can’t say that “you’ll save 30 bucks on oil”, it’s more like 300 dollars.

All that said, I still don’t really want a Tesla. I think they are cool, but, when it’s all said and done, I really like combustion engines; I love to hear them, smell them, and feel them rumble through the seat. And, of course, the utility offered by being able to fill up anywhere in 10 minutes!

I live on the road to the Grand Canyon, near Route 66 and I-40. A few cars drive by from time to time.

I don’t live in TOP zip code either but I do see them frequently. I am not into cars, any cars for that matter, so the whole discussion about cars bore me. Tesla didn’t change my opinion on cars but I am hopeful that someone will come up with “The Einstein” that I will fall in love with.

The “top zip codes” thing is from a Wall St Journal story. There’s a video up on the WSJ site as well. It’s on the site today, I saw it on my way in to work.

Tesla is the #1 selling car in the “top 25 zip codes”. 8 of them are in CA, a couple in the Hamptons (NY), etc. #2 was Mercedes E Class. #3 was BMW 3-series.

No one’s claiming that Tesla is going to pass GM or Toyota anytime soon.

Around here, the real earth keepers drive hayburners. No rare earth pit mines required.

“No one’s claiming that Tesla is going to pass GM or Toyota….”

Then how are they going to justify the stock price?

It’s not like everyone else is standing still.

The 2014 (Dodge) Ram half ton will offer an optional V-6 Turbo diesel, with a new 8 speed automatic tranny (from ZF, as I recall)

Highway MPG……..28

I tend to believe this number, as my 2013 Challenger comes real close to it’s estimated EPA Highway MPG. (It got a little over 28 driving from Eastern Kansas to Akron, Ohio. 850+ miles each way, made one fuel stop both ways (around Effingham, IL)……….made the trip in 11 hours, so you can figure the average speed)

The car’s driving range is about 1 hour longer than my bladder’s

“Then how are they going to justify the stock price?

It’s not like everyone else is standing still.”
—————–

Uhhh… something called margins. They cut out the dealers which saves money in all kinds of ways beyond the obvious “middleman” issue. Advertising for autos is crazy, look at a local news site or look at free or paid local publications. The eventual buyers of those cars pay for all those ads. Tesla can niche market and target selectively. Similarly, maintenance issues can be dealt with on a more uniform basis, less worry of being quoted a ridiculous price by your [name brand] dealer. Remember, Tesla isn’t trying to make money on the dealership to pay local guys, they’re running it as a national corp. Lastly, the issues of technological improvements at the same time that fossil fuel prices should be going higher.

Tesla also owns TONS of patents. Ask people in tech, patents still matter a lot. Microsoft and other tech companies make tons of money just on fees to use “blocking” patents, even without producing products themselves. In other words, if other people follow Tesla into the market, they will have to license some of its breakthroughs. Tesla will make money off of every car the big manufacturers produce, because they took time to invent, test, and improve the tech. Tesla is about R&D, not heavy manufacturing like Ford or GM or Toyota. Totally different companies.

Apple products don’t have nearly the same total market penetration as Windows software or Android smart phones, yet Apple profits are very high. Reputation plays a big role.

BTW, I’m not saying Tesla _will_ become Apple (or equiv.). But I am saying that if Tesla ever gets to a few % of market share while maintaining its reputation for higher quality and more innovation, they’ll be doing great. Tesla’s end game is maybe 5% overall market share + revenues from licensing patents to other manufacturers.

“Around here, the real earth keepers drive hayburners.”

Before the automobile, hayburners caused their own pollution problems in New York City. In areas of less population density, hayburners are an option.

whereas BMW/Mercedes maintenance is a cash cow for dealers

True of any German car. They break frequently are are expensive as hell to repair. You don’t want one that’s out of warranty. I’ve known a few guys who bought used German luxo cars. Once they learned that a part that costs $50 for an American or Asian car can cost $500 for the Beamer or the Benz, they got rid of it.

“oddly, the Red states don’t like competition…..”

Wrong.

The number of people who can afford a $100K car in the red states is very limited, compared to the number of vermin/bloodsuckers in NYC, DC and CA.

It’s not a 100k car, fixr. It’s a $70k car, often pushed into the 80’s by options.

They’re stealing market share (and it’s working) from BMW/Mercedes/Audi. Those are the 3 targets right now.

Tesla has zero dealerships in most red states. In many, it is illegal for a car company to sell directly to consumers. By law, you HAVE to have dealerships. The laws force the dealers to take delivery and then the dealer makes the sale to the consumer.

I think some blue states have laws like this as well, but I’m not sure, it’s been a while since I read about this.

When Tesla comes out with the $30k (base price) model, I still don’t think you’ll see them in your state if they’re required to have dealers. Tesla has said that they think dealers are a bad deal for consumers and make it hard for the manufacturer to provide a uniform, high level product experience. Locally owned dealers have incentives that don’t line up with the consumer or the producer.

Do southwestern states have laws preventing selling cars directly to the consumer?

There’s a small Tesla showroom in a mall in Scottsdale, so Arizona must not have one of those laws.

Is it North Carolina that prevents Tesla from selling directly to the consumer? I would think that if a person in NC was willing to spend $100k on a car, he’d probably be willing to travel to another state to get it. So it shouldn’t be a big problem for Tesla.

Locally owned dealers have incentives that don’t line up with the consumer or the producer.

No kidding. There’s a reason people hate shopping for cars.

It’s not a 100k car, fixr. It’s a $70k car, often pushed into the 80’s by options.

I think the performance model is a 100k car.

Tesla dealer in Scottsdale only gives you test drive, you can’t but it from the dealer.

That’s what I’m saying, the USDA is racis!

Obama and his Social Justice Incorporated Rent-A-Mob (see also Justice For Trayvon™) will threaten riots and looting if they don’t get their free bekfusses.

Forward

A helpful chart that identifies the Statists’ enemies:

http://www.picpaste.com/terrorist-chart-ytJy1XGP.jpg

That’s a great chart. I bet there’s a secret project at the NSA to build a time machine to go back to 1776 and arrest the founding fathers.

So the fox show Sleepy Hollow is real?

All the criminals on the streets are proof that the info being gathered isn’t being used correctly.

What else do they need? They showed enough fire power during watertown fiasco.

What else do they need? They showed enough fire power during watertown fiasco.

I’ll bet a few Apache choppers (armed with missiles of course) would come in handy.

http://thecommonsenseshow.com/siteupload/2013/05/police-militarized1.jpg

“Blue Thunder” was a documentary.

With all of the talk of 2nd amendment solutions, do you really expect governments to not react? It’s like the MAD doctrine that fueled the nuclear arms race.

Goon, did you see on the Western Rifle site that a bunch of people wrote comments in praise of Paul Ciancia? I always thought that those people were pretty intense, but that was a little surprising.

But he wasn’t their president.

But he was. The guys who can play gods in so many people’s lives….they are president of the world.

When you refer to the HCS propaganda, are you referring to Ben? Or the data that Ben was re-posting? I’m assuming the latter, but don’t let me stop you…you are on a roll with your own unsubstantiated BS numbers again.

Playing stupid once again eh Grand Distortionist?

And don’t be draggin Jone-Z into your web of lies. Its all about you.

So, it’s OK for Ben to refer to Census data, but NOT me?

Who would believe any “data” issued from any entity at this point in the charade that is being sold as a recovery?

Let me share a personal story from today. There is a family in Town that has been struggling financially for the last several years (Benny’s money printing hasn’t seemed to be of benefit to them). They haven’t made a mortgage payment in over a year so the NOD hit them a couple of months ago.

They tell the neighbors that they will be moving out and they begin to pack up their belongings. Then a funny thing occurs last week. They get a call from the bank and are told that if they pay a couple of hundred dollars a month they can stay in the house.

What’s interesting is that two other families in Town made the same sort of deal last year with different banking concerns and they are still in “their” houses.

Funny, it would seem that the Banks would be more than excited to put these homes back on the market and take advantage of this 2nd great housing rebirth we keep reading about.

Don’t you think?

Unless, of course, all this talk about recovery is nothing but a lie and Banks are scared sheetless about adding any REO inventory back into the mix to compete with the stuff already in play.

Oh, by the way, this is happening in that West part of the Country.

So, the occupant is non-current on their mortgage, but the house is not vacant.

And I don’t mean to be flippant about this stuff, but there are two separate issues going on here:

1. How is the distress moving through the system; and
2. How many homes are there relative to the people who want to live in the state (is there a massive excess of supply).

#1 is best measured by looking at mortgage data (non-current loan rates, foreclosures, delinquency data, etc.). These numbers have been hugely inflated throughout the country for years now, however, all data sources that I can find show the non-current loan rates falling dramatically in non-judicial states, and NOT in judicial states.

#2 is best measured by vacancy rates. However, these vacancy rates are altered as distress flows through the system…the more people who are kicked out of their homes, the more homes are vacant until someone new moves in (houses need to be fixed if they are damaged, deal with legal issues, eviction processes, etc.). As the distress decreases to “normal” levels, what we will be left with is a more pure measure of vacancy.

While the individual stories are illustrative of how distressed situations are being resolved, they don’t give the broader picture of just how many of these such situations are there yet to be resolved.

“Who would believe any “data” issued from any entity at this point in the charade that is being sold as a recovery?”

Answer this question Liar.

You can’t believe any one source of data.

You never could.

However, when you look at all sources available to you (I review the Census data, REIS, LPS, RealtyTrac, Foreclosure Radar, Corelogic, NY Fed and St. Louis Fed data, Fannie Reports, Freddie data, FDIC data, Trepp for CMBS, BLS data, local broker sales data, local market study data, etc.), you can get a clearer picture of what’s going on.

To brusquely determine that all of these sources much be wrong is to ignore the very same data that pointed out the bubble in the first place.

Why would they do something dumb like that? Milk it for all it worth….only move when there is a singed eviction notice from a judge and the sheriff is going to toss them out in 72 hours..

The still own the house……its truly amazing how so many millions upon millions of so called educated people are so totally clueless on how to use the internet

It truly baffles me….

===============
They tell the neighbors that they will be moving out and they begin to pack up their belongings.

No country will take goon. Even US doesn’t want him.

You might be wong though.

Seems Wongheaded to me.

I counter with:

http://snltranscripts.jt.org/05/05lbuy.phtml

If you have $800K, but are convinced that the buying power of that $800K is going to be 1/10th of what it is currently in five years, then why not?

Especially, if you are buying a backup plan, in case things in China go real bad.

“On a house like that, the first 30 years of payments will be well over double the cost of renting an apartment.”

Unless housing prices ratchet up again in the next 30 years. 30 years is a long time. My sister pays about half of what I do for housing. They bought in the mid 1990s, so they benefited from the last bubble. I have rented the whole time. Her mortgage is fixed (although taxes and maintenance are not). My rent is not. She will retire her mortgage in the next 10 years or so and her housing costs will drop. I will still be paying rent at whatever the market rate is.

Now if they would legalize hemp, and let farmers make some legal money

“Bummer……”

It’s also a small town, so one has be careful; better mix it within the same flock too.

Wow that makes renting even better. I plugged in the numbers. Inflation rate 3% stocks 10%. Even on a $150,000 house, renting is better where my phoenix digs are.

Conclusion: Real Estate is money pit.

There is no possible way on earth through any 30-year period whatsoever in modern American history that you would have come out ahead financially by purchasing a home on a 30-year mortgage than you would have by renting comparable housing and faithfully parking the excess of monthly mortgage payments over monthly rents in the stock market.

I say this as a matter of familiarity with 20th century U.S. stock market returns, plus the rather obvious fact that home ownership is a money sink which is best borne by your landlord.