Bits Bucket for November 12, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Confessions of a QE Mgr
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303763804579183680751473884
Has it ever been about anything but welfare for the 0.1% ?
Pol Pot had an effective solution for this
Pol Pot was a member of Camobodia’s 0.1%.
FWIW, a good book that describes much of the Khymer Rouge days is “To Destroy You Is No Loss”.
New People.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_People
The song Holiday in Cambodia by the Dead Kennedys summed it up pretty well.
The doctrine of the Khymer Rouge called for the eventual elimination - the eventual killing - of everyone who was over twelve years old at the beginning of their revolution (think puberty) and the indoctrination of those who were under twelve into become totally dedicated to and subserviant to their masters, Pol Pot and his buddies, Cambodia’s 0.1 percenters.
Pol Pot was a member of Camobodia’s 0.1%.
————————————————————-
OR,
he found out he wasn’t and that gave him a huge chip on his shoulder that made him want to tear down the existing system.
For example, there is a documentary that claims his classmates referred to him as a “dark monkey” when he went off to college. As a farmboy he was probably darker than the elites who were his classmates.
Marvin Hagler had a similar issue with Sugar Ray Leonard. “Sugar Ray was the “pretty boy” who was chosen to be the ambassador of boxing. Hagler could never get an even break despite his successful navigation of the brutal path they forced him to take to the belt.
Then when he finally got the belt, he defended his title against all of the best until there was no one left to fight; except the one person who refused to fight him:
Sugar Ray Leonard.
When they finally fought, Leonard ran the entire fight.
The boxing “cartel” used it as an excuse to dethrone Hagler because Hagler was never a “cartel member in good standing”
Boxing is corrupt.
They don’t want a true champion, they want a tool.
Pol Pot killed anyone who had glasses. His killing of anyone that could be thought of as intellectual means Cambodia will stay backward for generations. But time after time in Communist countries in particular we see it, the pinheads killing the people with the highest IQs. The Soviet Union killed its most productive farmers in the twenties and thirties and went from a food exporter to a country that could not feed itself. Zimbabwe for the most part did not kill its white farmers but took their land causing famine and economic misery that it still has food shortages because of it.
“The Soviet Union killed its most productive farmers in the twenties and thirties”
I think I just read about that the other day, wasn’t that in the Ukraine, I think they called it the “Holdomor”, Stalin’s man made famine to starve the productive?
It was both in the Ukraine and in Russia proper. The man made famine in the Ukraine was more to crush separatist forces but in Russia it was aimed at the Kulaks or successful farmers that might not support the government land grab.
When they finally fought, Leonard ran the entire fight.
I’m not familiar with the fight, so I wiki’d it:
“During the pre-fight negotiations, in return for granting Hagler a larger share of the purse Leonard obtained several conditions which would be crucial to his strategy; a 24×24ft ring, 12oz gloves and the fight was to be over 12—not 15—rounds. Leonard was 2 years younger, had half as many fights, and unbeknown to Hagler had engaged in several ‘real’ fights behind closed doors in order to shake off his ring rust.
Leonard was announced as winner by split decision, which remains hotly disputed to this day.”
in return for granting Hagler a larger share of the purse
——————————————————————-
Thats a perfect example of the arrogant attitude the boxing cartel allowed Leonard to get away with. Why should a champion have to split a purse evenly with a challenger?
The champ is taking a chance on losing his belt?
If I was in charge of boxing, the only compensation challengers would get is the belt if they win.
Trust me, there are plenty of hungry guys who would risk a beatdown for no money in order to get a shot at the title.
This would minimize all the bums with no heart, fighting just so they can lose and make a mortgage payment…
Boxing is corrupt.
(((shakin my head)))
If I was in charge of boxing, the only compensation challengers would get is the belt if they win.
that’s a ‘marvelous’ idea. that IS the way it should be. and the corruption in boxing is the reason i stopped watching it. favorite fighter.. Duran.
I watched Sugar Ray train in Burlington Vermont for the 1976 Olympics in Montreal. We also were both born on May 17th, as was Khomeni. I guess my combative nature is written in the stars.
Yep, that was the end of an era. Look at it now? The boxing cartel had Mayweather and Pacquiao sidestep each other for years in order to build the pot up; so now, even if they fight, its meaningless because neither are in their prime.
It was the fight we needed to see in order to advance the science; but now it will never happen.
Boxing is corrupt.
Boxing is corrupt.
Really?
pol pot may be the wrong analogy for the deserved fate of the 0.1%.
what happened to nicolae and elena ceausescu is a more appropriate summary.
I still remember seeing footage from that trial. He was full of bluster and arrogance. She looked petrified, in the utter grip of fear and terror. IIRC they were shot a few days later.
here’s a 7 minute video including footage of their brief trial and their feeble protests as their hands are tied and they are led out into the courtyard to be shot:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsRQP7TifME
this needs to happen 10,000 times over, start with manhattan and greenwich, ct. and skip the trials too, just execute the 0.1%er pigs.
She was probably thinking that she should have married that cute but politically unconnected guy she dated in college instead.
I guess it’s fitting that the Squad prefers a firing squad, but I don’t agree. I’m sure that the 0.1% have arranged their affairs that should they die unexpectedly their estates would be distributed to preferred parties, with every possible tax break of course.
What say we strip them of all their wealth and assets, install them in a rental one-bedroom apartment and make them take public transport to work at McDonald’s and Wal-Mart part time with no benefits. And make them pay full freight for health insurance (if they can) until they admit that maybe Obamacare isn’t really the devil. And post video updates on YouTube for all to see. I for one would love to see Jeff Skilling go to a food bank, wait in 90°heat for the bus, and get the food home only to find out that his electricity has been cut off.
We could adopt the old English rule that if you are executed your estate escheats to the King or Government, the primary reasons that all felonies carried the death penalty at one time.
There it is Oxy. You would of course be included in this purge, Castro, Chinese or Stalin style. You’d be an enemy of the state, just because you have a lot of stuff and of course because you went to college. Probably because you are a debtor as well. Throw in that you are an older single woman. These are crimes in a purge. Just imagine living all the things you would like to do to others.
The French Revolution was a pretty groovy model of how to dispose of the 0.1%ers, but things got a bit sloppy after that.
Blockading Manhattan and Greenwich, CT and summarily executing all the pigs within (let the nannies and gardeners escape) would be a good start.
Goon, are you not a pig?
Oxy, whoa there! Let’s re-examine that premise.
Not to put too fine a point on it, I also abhor the .01%’ers.
Methinks you tout the manifesto too gleefully, and with too much regularity and gusto. “TAKE AWAY WHAT OTHERS HAVE IF THEY HAVE MORE OF IT THAN MEEEE, AND I WILL DECIDE WHO GETS TO HAVE IT!” (Because I’m smarter and more entitled to do it, an’ all)
You came up with the same solution to solve the estate tax problem for family farms <300 acres. Liquidate them and give the proceeds to the gummint! And for the same reason: because youuuuu can do a MUCH better job at figuring out how to redistribute others’ wealth than they can themselves!
Let me tell you, Oxy - there is no man or woman breathing who can ‘reallocate’ my wealth for me better than I can manage it myself. To believe otherwise is the height of presumption, arrogance, and ignorance. Regrettably, the belief is shared by the majority of your fedgov comrades.
You see a pattern here? No matter what the problem is, you offer the same solution - take from others, and do with it what you will.
We need to downsize the fedgov by 80%. Perhaps the remaining 400,000 will be busy enough so they don’t have time to lust after others’ assets and means.
I can’t believe I’m arguing on behalf of the .01%.
You argue for human rights.
Goon, this should happen in our thugocracy as well. How many deaths were ordered by the last five presidents? Clinton at least. I wonder if Eric Snowden was not such a folk hero he would disappear “off the face of the earth.”
Taxation is theft also. Property theft rightfully needs to be defended with a gun.
Lysander Spooner’s “No Treason: The Constitution of No Authority” explains why.
“what happened to nicolae and elena ceausescu…”
+1 You omitted the “bun in the oven.”
I know a lady who survived Pol Pot
she was educated but had to hide that fact. She was made to mix human waste as a fertilizer and she did it without showing any emotion like a poor farmer from the countryside. fail that test you get shot right there.
the poor and the young kids would rat you out if you could read or even if you looked like you were from the city.
escaped to thailand
“I know a lady who survived Pol Pot”
I went to Cal Poly with a guy who was 16-yrs/old when the Khmer Rouge emptied Phnom Penh into the countryside. His lingering issue was malaria; easily exhausted without a couple daytime naps. He told me the meme was, “The rice field is the university…the hoe is your pencil.”
FWIW, a recent issue of The Economist had a Kissinger piece regarding the Cambodian genocide. Apparently Nixon’s trade negotiations with China were more important than early U.S. intervention in Cambodia since China was okay with Pol Pot’s murderous crusade, IIRC.
Cactus, you sure do know some fascinating people. What circles you run with?
How the heck did this woman manage to avoid the dry heaves?
How the heck did this woman remain connected to the world enough to tell you the story?
There are a lot of Asians out west here. I know one who fled with his family on boats. They were victimized by pirates. A harrowing story.
Those people who escaped communism are the fiercest opponents of it. Their kids born in America are old enough to vote, and sadly many vote for the one who pledges the same thing as the commies in the old country “to spread the wealth around’
“Where are we today? The Fed keeps buying roughly $85 billion in bonds a month, chronically delaying so much as a minor QE taper. Over five years, its bond purchases have come to more than $4 trillion. Amazingly, in a supposedly free-market nation, QE has become the largest financial-markets intervention by any government in world history.”
Where are we? We are on a permanently high plateau.
Yet none of that money gets to the little guy…they eliminated almost all the job training funds in NYC….except for armed security guards they will pay for everything and home health aides…seems to be a big shortage…. wonder why?
Why is this article even published by the WSJ? Somehow trying to cover their bases?
Is there a single person on this blog who thinks there is a snowballs chance in he11 of a Dectaper?
Another revelatory tell-all from a former insider. Will he have to leave the country for Russia like Snowden did?
It’s nice to be a Fed-favored Citizen (FFC).
On the other hand, it’s not so nice to be one of the Fed’s unfavored citizens (FUC).
Their logic knows they can’t centrally plan the market, but their instinct says they can. Same old story we’ve seen through history. A gargantuan, unique economic entity, one capable of printing dollars, wading into the market to effect economic outcomes which have no impact on it. A recipe for malinvestment.
When this is all said and done, the Fed’s dual mandate is going to go away.
Home owners = FFCs
Renters = FPNGs*
* Fed Persona Non Gratas
Comment by tresho
2013-11-11 19:50:09
The biggest problem we face is that we will all individually die, no matter how much $ we set aside, how athletic we are, what wonderful places we move to, whatever. Worrying about dying civilizations is just a way to distract ourselves. What to do, what to do…
Jesus said: “Whoever has come to know the world has discovered a carcass, and whoever has discovered a carcass, of that person the world is not worthy.”
understand what he meant by this and you’ll not feel the sting of death.
No. Not in any known and established translations.
what is the proper translation?
Thomas wasn’t never canonized…. and if you study it a bit, I think you’ll understand why.
Thomas wasn’t never canonized….
he didn’t need to be canonized for every religion. accord to thomas, those were his words.
I didn’t suggest they weren’t his words. Merely that they aren’t recognized and I believe for good reason.
I didn’t suggest they weren’t his words. Merely that they aren’t recognized
ok.
Thomas wasn’t never canonized…. and if you study it a bit, I think you’ll understand why.
The Gospel of Thomas is the gospel of Gnosticism. Given that the Malabar church in India was founded by the Apostle Thomas (which is why they are sometimes called ‘Thomas Christians’) and the Malabar Church isn’t Gnostic, it pretty much proves that St. Thomas did not write that Gospel and that it is spurious.
t pretty much proves that St. Thomas did not write that Gospel and that it is spurious.
Clowns don’t care.
Propagandists make sh!t up is what they do.
I don’t worry about dying civilizations.
I celebrate dying civilizations.
“this sucker could go down” - President George W. Bush
The american south broke down by the end of the 19th century and has sucked ever since. The midwest died by the end of the 20th century and will never be the same. Now us northeast and west coast bedwetters will fade similarly in the 21st century. I am OK with this, as it is in the nature of civilizations. If I die in about 2065, I probably won’t be around for the worst of it.
Liberace!
downlow joe has entered the building.
when parents breed and have children, they feel obligated to believe that the world will be a better place for their children, and to tell their children that the world will be a better place. unfortunately this is a lie. as a prospective breeder, are you planning to continue this lie? or will you be honest and tell your sprog ‘yes, i know the future is totally f*cked, but we created you anyway, so deal with it.’
adopt a shelter pet instead.
The american south broke down by the end of the 19th century and has sucked ever since.
The American South was destroyed by the Civil War which ended in 1865 and did not begin to recover until companies running from unions started to arrive in the 1950’s. It did not even start to close the gap with other states until the 1980s. BTW, those that point to the South as being Republican and thus poor, ignore that the South did not become Republican at the local level until the late 80s early 90s and the gap started to close but this closure lost traction once globalization began due to the lost of textile and other jobs competing with China.
The south as a region is performing very poorly. It’s not because it’s Republican. It’s cultural and it crosses racial and political lines. To the extent the south has experienced population growth, it can be summed up as adverse selection. More illegals settle in the south, more old people move to the south, and the economic losers of the north tend to move south. Young people who graduate college tend to beat a path to the coasts and the lion’s share of high achievers cluster in relatively few areas we can all name: SF/SV, NYC, LA, DC.
That said, the fact that the GOP lets the south pick its presidential nominee (via a flawed system of awarding higher percentages of delegates to the “darkest red” areas) is objectively stupid. Political patronage is apparently far more important than being competitive.
You overgeneralize. Every region has some mix of rich, poor and people in between.
In today’s California thread, there are references to a recent study on poverty. If you consider the cost of living, California has the highest poverty rate in the country. Using the same metric, states like New York and Maryland are also probably pretty high up on the list.
Also this statement the first part of this statement is probably incorrect.
Young people who graduate college tend to beat a path to the coasts and the lion’s share of high achievers cluster in relatively few areas we can all name: SF/SV, NYC, LA, DC.
If you looked into it, you would probably find that most college graduates stay in the states where go to college, which are generally the states that they grow up in. To the extent that young people are flocking to expensive cities like that, it’s probably a mistake for many if not most of them. I knew a couple of sisters like that. They both grew up and went to college in Florida. They moved to NYC and lived there for a few years. They couldn’t find jobs that paid well enough to provide them a decent standard living, so they eventually moved far away - one to Plattsburgh, NY, which is near the Canadian border, and the other to some small town in Vermont. For a few years they were able to brage to their friends and family that they were living in New York City.
Small world, Plattsburgh is essentially just a ferry ride from Burlington, Vermont.
The American South was destroyed by the Civil War
The “South” will “rise” again. (As a union colony”) It’s over dudes.
If I die in about 2065, I probably won’t be around for the worst of it.
———————————————————————–
I regret to inform you that the worst is already here:
NSFWP!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB8576rV1tY
BTW- rather than create apps and software for this thing, Im working on the cleaning kit for these things (sold separately)
tj, did you make that up? I’ve never seen that in the Bible I have. Most people quoting scripture give chapter and verse.
the gospel of thomas was found some years ago. it was in there.
yeh, that’s a new one on me.
It is one of the books that has not been accepted as authentic but either the Catholic church or Protestants .
There are other spurious Gospels out there as well: The Gospel of Peter and the Gospel of the Hebrews come to mind.
It is also my understanding that the Gospel of John almost didn’t make the cut, as it has some major differences from the three Synoptic Gospels and it wasn’t until around the time of the Council of Nicea that it was established as canonical.
As for the Gospel of Thomas, IIRC it was embraced solely by the Gnostics in the second century.
As for the Gospel of Thomas, IIRC it was embraced solely by the Gnostics in the second century.
point wasn’t the gospels, and it was only a minor point that Jesus said those words. the major considerations are, are the words true? what do they mean?
You are, as the saying goes, all tied up in your underwear.
Understand that, and you will have discovered one of the great mysteries of life!
the major considerations are, are the words true?
If the words stand on their own, why quote a spurious gospel to put them in Jesus’ mouth?
If the words stand on their own, why quote a spurious gospel to put them in Jesus’ mouth?
because the words are not attributable to anyone else.
and you aren’t the last word on ’spurious’, even though i’m sure you’d like to be. it’s still being debated.
and you aren’t the last word on ’spurious’, even though i’m sure you’d like to be. it’s still being debated.
Oh please, of course I’m not the last word on the whether it is spurious. It is considered a spurious and heretical work by all Christian Churches, or did you think I anathematized it on my own authority? Catholics, Orthodox, Protestants and others reject it.
What would Jeebuz say though? Or is he too busy talking to the easter bunny? Or was that the Quick Bunny? Or Bugs Bunny? I forget!
realtors are liars
“Houses depreciate….. rapidly”
You better believe it Mister.
Buying a used house is an adventure in depreciation discovery.
…. and slavery.
they even made a movie about it. tom hanks and shelley long star in critically acclaimed 1986 film ‘the money pit’
http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0091541/
“WAVE OF EQUITY CREDIT RESETS SPELLS TROUBLE”
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/nov/10/tp-wave-of-equity-credit-resets-spells-trouble/
And you thought mortgage resets were over? And you thought housing somehow magically bottomed?
Guess again. As you all know, asking prices of resale housing have been 40% higher than new construction costs(lot, labor, materials, profit)… and still are.
“Why buy a house today at these grossly inflated asking prices? Rent for half the monthly cost of buying. Buy later, after prices crater for 65% less.”
No question prices will roll back to early 1990’s levels.
If you bought a house in the last 13 years, your losses are tremendous.
After “throwing money away on rent” every month, I have so much money left over I don’t know where to throw it.
Which one is Rental Watch? I see Toxide looking directly at the camera….. who are the other two?
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8194/8088427564_ef783eb8fb_o.jpg
Jingle and Rental Watch are the only two people here who are bullish about residential RE.
Oxide might justify her personal financial decision but isn’t out pushing the idea that RE is headed upwards.
Oh no Liberace? You’re not paying attention.
Let me be clear on my position, since I hate people putting words in my mouth (or painting me with a broad “housing bull” brush):
1. Judicial states are dealing with their delinquency issues very slowly. As such, most of the current shadow inventory remains in states like Florida, NY, NJ, IL. Following from that, these continue to be the riskiest of markets–if their laws ever change, there will be a flood of distressed properties hitting the market, and that ain’t good if you are a fan of higher prices in those markets;
2. Non-judicial states (like CA, AZ, CO), have largely dealt with their issues of distressed borrowers, and now it comes down to supply/demand/price/interest rates, as it typically does in a market that is not dominated by distressed housing;
3. CA has a disastrously low supply of housing (as measured by physical structures in which people can live as compared to the number of people who want to live in them), and despite lots of land, a very difficult process to get land approved for development. Accordingly, home and land values along the coast have already rebubbled. Home and land values farther inland are on their way to rebubbling, but have a way to go still. While many markets along the coast have already reached peak levels (exceeding 2005/2006 levels), inland CA markets are nowhere near the peak, but rising fast. I don’t think inland CA markets will get back to 2005/2006 levels during this cycle.
4. Will there be a recrash? I don’t know, but if I were guessing, I would say “not unless credit opens up a to much greater extent than today (ie. $ to much worse borrowers)”. What caused the last popping of the bubble were borrowers who simply couldn’t make the payment, and since all potential borrowers were sucked out of the renter pool with the lure of riches and cheap debt, we ran out of greater fools. This time around, given the more stringent underwriting for loans and very low level of new construction, I suspect any bubble will be deflated more slowly as opposed to “popping”.
If you want to call that bullish, fine, then I’m bullish on housing–I’m not universally positive though, I would avoid judicial foreclosure states, and coastal CA if I wanted to avoid potential major price corrections.
Nonsense.
There is no “shortage” of housing in California. Worse yet, housing demand in California goes lower and lower with each passing year since 2009.
Why else is there 4 million excess empty houses in California?
No demand, huge supply.
Let me be clear on my position, since I hate people putting words in my mouth (or painting me with a broad “housing bull” brush):
They don’t care. They are dogmatic and beyond numbers.
Toxide?
LOL
XoXo
http://youtu.be/4fRedfKGOa0
Abby Martin today…..
The New York Times’ endorsement of the TPP’s corporate coup shows they either lack journalistic integrity or stand to benefit from the deal somehow (or both):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOKJo-W0TAE
Treasury bond yields are taking flight again today.
November 12, 2013, 9:50 a.m. ET
Treasurys Fall Ahead of New Debt Sales; Tapering Fears Linger
By Carolyn Cui
Treasurys fell Tuesday ahead of $70 billion in sales of government debt this week, extending their losses into a second session amid lingering concerns about the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its bond-buying program.
In early trade, the benchmark 10-year note fell 6/32 in price, yielding 2.770%, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year bond declined 13/32 to yield 3.866%.
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its small-business optimism index dropped to 91.6 in October from 93.9 in September, the lowest reading since April. The decline, which showed the impact of the 16-day partial government shutdown on the country’s small businesses, was largely dismissed by the market.
Financial markets were rocked last week by a sudden surge in U.S. jobs created in October, renewing speculation that the Federal Reserve would soon announce its long-awaited plans to begin tapering its asset-purchase program. Over the week, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 0.127 percentage points, settling at 2.746%.
With the average jobs gain for the last three months rising to 200,000, analysts at J.P. Morgan now expect the Fed to start its tapering process in January, instead of April, as they anticipated in late October.
But economists also noted that there were troubling signs behind the impressive headline numbers. For example, much of the acceleration in the third-quarter gross-domestic products growth can be attributed to a buildup in inventories, while the October payrolls growth wasn’t fast enough to put any real upward pressure on wages.
In his weekly note to clients, Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., warned investors against “a slow grind higher in real interest rates” amid a slow but growing economy, low inflation and muted spending.
“While we do not expect interest rates to rise quickly or dramatically, we do think they’re headed higher,” he wrote, suggesting investors underweight assets that are most sensitive to higher rates, including U.S. Treasurys, inflation-protected securities, utility stocks and gold.
…
Dennis Gartman: If it’s Yellen, you should be sellin’ bonds
November 12, 2013, 9:39 AM
Dennis Gartman is sounding the alarm: a bear market is coming in bonds.
“It’s the first time in a long time I’ve wanted to be that way,” he said on CNBC late Monday, but he’s convinced rates are heading sharply higher from here. The benchmark 10-year note (10_YEAR +0.47%) traded at a yield of 2.77% on Tuesday morning, but it could easily reach 4% in the next two years and 6% within the next 10 years, said Gartman, who publishes The Gartman Letter, a note about the capital markets.
Benchmark Treasury yields have moved over a full percentage point higher since this spring as concerns mount about when the Federal Reserve will begin withdrawing its bond purchase program, which has been used as economic stimulus. Market economists have largely projected that the timing of the so-called taper will be sometime between next month and spring of 2014.
Janet Yellen, nominee to take over as chair of the Fed, heads to Congress on Thursday for her confirmation hearing. If she takes over as leader of the central bank, she will inherit a Fed that “wants a more positively sloped yield curve,” Gartman said. The front end of the yield curve will likely stay anchored, as the Fed has committed to keeping its key interest rates low, but the taper is likely to push out the long end of the curve. That means the bonds many investors hold in their portfolio will be worth less.
But it’s not just driven by Fed expectations, says Gartman.
“Friday’s employment number was indicative of what’s going on in the economy. Outside of New York, things are doing quite well, thank you very much,” he said.
…
“Friday’s employment number was indicative of what’s going on in the economy. Outside of New York, things are doing quite well, thank you very much,” he said”
This says it all. Talk about delusion, outside of New York things are going well? A 2 cents an hour rise in wages and a reduced average work week is doing well?
Chicago is on the edge like many cities. Raise interest rates and watch them fall like dominoes. In fact, when Chicago falls it will take down the entire state of Illinois with it. While a state can not technically go bankrupt, it will be a distinction without a difference for most people.
“Raise interest rates and watch them fall like dominoes.”
You make it sound like interest rates are totally within the ability of the Fed to control. Do you also believe they deliberately drove up interest rates from May 2 through August 22 this year? Or last Friday, for that matter?
That said, do you believe the Fed will deliberately allow rates to rise from here, knowing full well that dominoes will fall if their efforts succeed?
What if the Fed tapers QE3, only to discover the economy is so weak that there isn’t any fundamental upward pressure on rates. Wouldn’t that be a shocker?
Nov. 12, 2013, 10:35 a.m. EST · CORRECTED
Fed’s Fisher says easing to reach its limit
By Michael Kitchen
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher on Tuesday urged the markets to prepare for the tapering of the Fed’s quantitative-easing stimulus, though repeating that overall policy would remain loose for some time to come. “I understand there’s sensitivity, but markets should also bear in mind that this program cannot go on forever,” Fisher said in an interview on CNBC. “Our balance sheet has become bloated, and at some point we will have to taper back on the pace of purchases, but that doesn’t mean we’ll stop. We’ll have less accommodation,” Fisher said. The Dallas Fed chief spoke Monday evening in Melbourne.
My understanding is that Fisher and the Fed guy from St. Louis can’t be relied upon. Not because they are wrong or dishonest, but because they are always being outvoted by the rest of the Fed.
Fisher is a “nonvoting” member. When he becomes a “voting” member next year, expect him to sign a new tune.
And someone else can play the role of loyal (and non-voting) opposition?
Nov. 12, 2013, 10:19 a.m. EST
Treasurys extend slide ahead of auctions
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Gold futures fall on prospects for Fed taper
By Ben Eisen, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices slipped Tuesday ahead of $70 billion of worth of auctions, pushing yields to fresh two-month highs in a continuation of last week’s climb.
The 10-year note (10_YEAR +1.09%) yield, which moves inversely to price, rose 1 basis point on the day to 2.766%, its highest yield since mid-September. On Friday, the benchmark yield had its biggest jump in four months.
The 30-year bond (30_YEAR +0.36%) yield rose 1 basis point to 3.858%, and the 5-year note (7_YEAR +1.80%) yield rose 2 basis points to 1.4368%.
The 3-year note (3_YEAR +5.55%) yield rose 1.5 basis points to 0.614% ahead of an auction of $30 billion of the securities as part of its November refunding.
“The 3-year note looks pretty rich on the curve with the 2’s-3’s-5’s butterfly at some of the richest readings since 2011 even adjusting for the 3-year roll. So no help from the curve for today’s auction unless 3’s cheapen up markedly,” said William O’Donnell, head Treasury strategist at RBS, in a note.
The Treasury will also sell $24 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday.
The auctions come as the Treasury market looks for color on when the Federal Reserve will begin curbing its $85 billion in monthly bond buys, which have been used as economic stimulus. A strong nonfarm payrolls report and other improving economic data helped pull forward the expected timing of when the central bank will withdraw its purchases. (Read why Dennis Gartman is selling bonds.)
Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher used a public appearance early Tuesday to warn markets that the taper was coming. “I understand there’s sensitivity, but markets should also bear in mind that this program cannot go on forever,” Fisher said in a CNBC interview.
…
It is not just high house prices that are causing people to go hungry in England:
The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)
Heat Or Eat: Rising UK Energy Costs Seep Into Food Spending
Date: 10/11/13
Elizabeth Rigby and Andrea Felsted, Financial Times
Supermarkets are seeing a squeeze on spending by the poorest households in Britain as rising utility bills force families to make a hard choice between energy and food.
Asda, Britain’s second biggest supermarket by market share, and Wm Morrison, another of the UK’s top four grocers, say a growing number of their customers are being forced to make trade-offs between buying food for their families and heating their homes on the back of galloping energy bills.
Three quarters of young mothers – and nearly two-thirds of mums – told Asda in its Mumdex survey of 5,500 parents that they cannot afford to turn on their heating for as long as they need to.
“What we are seeing is customers having to make trade-offs,” says Alex Chruszcz, head of insight at Asda. “The hardest hit households are having to make really tough decisions, because the things they have to spend money on, they really can’t control that much. The worst case is you have a family, you have a house that has to be heated, and you have more mouths to feed. For those hard-up families, they are the ones that feel this most.”
High energy bills have shot up the political agenda in recent months amid growing public anger on the back of repeated price hikes from the big six energy companies. David Cameron – bounced into action by Labour’s promise to freeze energy bills for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election – this week promised to “roll back” green levies in his own bid to help bring down bills.
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The British waste too much energy. I think they are dead last in energy efficiency in Europe. If they were more efficient they would have more to spend on everything else.
The housing stock in the United Kingdom is amongst the least energy efficient in Europe. In 2004, housing (including space heating, hot water, lighting, cooking, and appliances) accounted for 30.23% of all energy use in the UK (up from 27.70% in 1990). The figure for London is higher at approximately 37%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_efficiency_in_British_housing
Update:
Since that survey was done in 2004 the British have made dramatic improvements and now rank with Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden.
http://phys.org/news/2013-09-switzerland-global-energy.html
Nothing like freezing your azz off to make you more fuel efficient, however they still cannot afford to heat their homes due to higher prices caused by the green energy sources they have been forced to use.
here’s a repost from the weekend for downlow joe. article discusses ’super zips’ of where the 1%er pigs live in the metro d.c. area:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/local/2013/11/09/washington-a-world-apart/
November 12, 2013
The next 10 investment bubbles
Photo: Bloomberg
Asset bubbles are funny things. You’re not sure something is in a bubble until it pops. Ever since investors first bid up the price of tulip bulbs to ridiculous levels back in the early 1600s, one thing many economists seem to agree on is that pre-popped bubbles defy formal identification. This past year Princeton economist Paul Krugman said there’s no standard definition for them. Last week, Columbia University economist Guillermo Calvo said at a San Francisco Fed conference that we still don’t have a theory about them. “Irrational Exuberance” author and Yale economist Robert Shiller, who recently said stock prices are high but not at alarming levels, called market bubbles a form of “social mental illness.” While we may not have an academic definition of bubbles, investors certainly have fresh memories of getting burned by the U.S. housing bubble in 2006 and the dot.com bubble in 1999. With this in mind, MarketWatch looked at 10 assets that are showing that sort of frothiness that could indicate a bubble in the making.
—Wallace Witkowski
here communist katrina vanden heuvel celebrates the permanent democrat supermajority
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/katrina-vanden-heuvel-democratic-wing-of-the-party-awakes/2013/11/12/6171059e-4b1d-11e3-ac54-aa84301ced81_story.html
Nov. 12, 2013, 8:32 a.m. EST
Why aren’t gold traders more scared?
Commentary: Average gold trader has yet to throw in the towel — a bad sign
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Gold traders aren’t running scared. And that’s why you should be.
Consider: Gold (GCZ3 -0.05%) has fallen nearly $70 so far this month, and $140 since late August — including another $3 in Monday’s trading. And, yet, in response, the average gold trader is not nearly as upset as he was on the occasion of prior price drops of similar magnitude.
That’s worrisome from a contrarian point of view.
Contrarians would be more confident that a tradeable low is near if the average gold trader had reacted to the recent declines by turning aggressively bearish. But, far from doing that, he has rather stubbornly held on to his gold holdings.
That suggests to contrarians that more declines are necessary to rebuild the veritable wall of worry that rallies like to climb.
…
If Mugabe had a son he would look like Obama:
By Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report
It looks like the U.S. Treasury is learning a few tricks from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe as it ramps up its printing press. In just a few years, the U.S. Department of Treasury Bureau of Engraving & Printing has substantially increased the printing of its largest valued Federal Reserve Note — the $100 bill.
Ironically, the U.S. Department of the Treasury calls its Bureau of Engraving & Printing’s website, the MoneyFactory.gov. Who says government officials don’t have a sense of humor?
Why on earth should gold and silver miners spend $100’s of billions of dollars exploring, mining, extracting and refining to produce real money, when you can go to the U.S Money Factory and get all the money you need? And for pennies on the dollar.
According to the U.S. Treasury’s website:
During Fiscal Year (FY) 2013, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing delivered approximately 26 million notes a day with a face value of approximately $1.3 billion.
During Fiscal Year (FY) 2013, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing delivered approximately 6.6 billion notes at an average cost of 10 cents per note.
Over 90 percent of the notes that the BEP delivers each year are used to replace notes already in, or taken out of circulation.
My PS that still means 66 billion of new dollars (not replacement dollars) and Mugabe might actually have a son(s) but I do not want to ruin the joke.
‘if mugabe had a son he would look like obama’
so that would make mugabe trayvon martin’s grandpa
pass the purple drank
BTW, gold is down on the futures market today but up on the spot market. You could not have a better evidence between real gold and paper gold. Wall Street controls paper gold and for years manipulated both paper and real gold. Now, in place after place real gold prices are different than paper gold. In India the premium is about $130 per ounce. The game is just about up for Wall Street and the derivatives they own for gold are about to go the way of subprime mortgages. But don’t worry it will be contained.
“BTW, gold is down on the futures market today but up on the spot market.”
Now would be a good time to short physical and go long futures…
Why I prefer Platinum and Palladium for the short term as I said yesterday:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/platinum-shortage-most-in-14-years-as-palladium-deficit-narrows.html
More evidence of the disconnect between paper and real metals:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/11/12/american-eagle-silver-coin-sales-hit-a-record-u-s-mint/
Isn’t Mugabe like 90 years old?
WTF?
I can’t believe he’s still causing problems for white folks?
He is causing problems for all the folks in Zimbabwe who are more than 95% black.
Mugabe’s not a dictator, he’s just a harmless trickster:
http://nationalhumanitiescenter.org/tserve/freedom/1865-1917/essays/trickster.htm
Since when do black people count?
Isn’t Mugabe like 90 years old? WTF? I can’t believe he’s still causing problems for white folks?
You say you’re “black”. And you say stupid stuff like Mugabe is “causing problems for white folk”.
What is the major color of the people Mugabe “represents”.
You are not serious. Or in the least, you are seriously confused.
Since when do black people count?
Ask the Union dead, the blacks after the Civil Rights Laws, the modern Democratic Party and President Obama.
Why on earth should gold and silver miners spend $100’s of billions of dollars exploring, mining, extracting and refining to produce real money, when you can go to the U.S Money Factory and get all the money you need? And for pennies on the dollar.’
good question
I’m watching PAAS for a bottom I’ve traded this stock off and on again for over 10 years
been out of commodities for some time now… well except for APA
It’s a long time until Easter.
My PS that still means 66 billion of new dollars (not replacement dollars) and Mugabe might actually have a son(s) but I do not want to ruin the joke.
That’s only true if you assume that ALL of the 660M new bills are of the $100 denomination.
If most of those bills are $1 bills, then the total value of new currency would be miniscule.
Good point but if you re-read the article you will see that the government printed 1.3 billion dollars per day, not sure if that included weekends and holidays. So a conservative estimate would be north of 30 billion dollars. Which is not chump change.
It looks like the U.S. Treasury is learning a few tricks from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe as it ramps up its printing press. In just a few years, the U.S. Department of Treasury Bureau of Engraving & Printing has substantially increased the printing of its largest valued Federal Reserve Note — the $100 bill.
Wouldn’t it be the FedRes who prints the money? If the Treasury could just print money, they wouldn’t have to borrow any, right? Now the Treasury, IIRC, can mint and issue coins, so I suppose they could mint $100 coins made out of whatever the make quarters of these days. Or just mint one of those 1 trillion dollar coins they were talking about a while ago, until the banking clan put the kibosh on that.
I think the article speaks for itself. The treasury gets the profit from printing just as it gets the profits from Federal Reserve activities. This money from air has reduced the stated deficits but is no different from the continental congress printing dollars or the confederacy printing dollars, do enough of it and you will see Zimbabwe type inflation.
From a September 25, 2012 Daily Beast article:
With its ability to print money in unlimited amounts in order to buy up government securities and Fannie and Freddie’s debt, the Federal Reserve may be the most profitable bank around. So far this year, the Fed, which turns over its profits to the Treasury department, has earned more than $80 billion for the government and over $5 billion just this month. The Federal Reserve’s complex bailout of the insurance giant AIG, which was wound up in August, turned out to be another profit center for the Fed, and by extension, the taxpayer. The New York Fed, which oversaw a portion of the government’s support for AIG, got some $6.6 billion in addition to the $2.85 billion it received from selling AIG assets in April 2011.
So far this year, the Fed, which turns over its profits to the Treasury department, has earned more than $80 billion for the government and over $5 billion just this month.
How much is the Treasury paying the fed in interest on all the Treasuries it owns?
If Mugabe had a son he would look like Obama:
What a bunch of reaching crap.
Brazilian Tranny!
Looser. I didn’t.
Pick yourself up off the floor Tranny. Cheer up.
Why aren’t gold traders scared… because they make money on the transaction no matter which direction the price goes.
Now, gold owners, on the other hand…
Are China’s and the U.S.’s economic systems trading places? Next thing you know, China’s economic leaders will be quoting Adam Smith.
Facing slowdown, China vows to let market play more important role in economy
By Simon Denyer
BEIJING — Facing increasing doubts about the sustainability of their economic model, China’s Communist leaders promised at a key meeting Tuesday to deepen reforms and let the market play a more important role in the economy, but provided few specifics about exactly what they intended to do.
In a communique released after the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party, they also promised to set up a new State Security Committee, a long-mooted plan to centralize control of foreign and security policy along the lines of the U.S. National Security Council. And they vowed to establish a new “leading team” to design, coordinate and supervise “comprehensively deepening” economic reforms.
“The core issue is to properly deal with the relationship between government and market, and to let the market play a decisive role in allocating resources and to better perform the functions of the government,” the communique said, according to state media.
But while it promised to promote the private sector, the Communist Party seemed to shy away from comprehensive reform of the country’s massive and powerful state-owned enterprises, promising as usual to maintain the dominance of the public sector and stating that “the basic economic system of the publicly owned economy . . . is an important pillar of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.”
Many economists say China’s economic model is running out of steam and is far too reliant on government investment in infrastructure and a boom in credit. The playing field is also heavily tipped towards an increasingly inefficient state sector. They are hoping to see measures to empower private entrepreneurs and encourage innovation, boost domestic consumption spending and rein in free-spending local governments, but many worry that economic reforms will run up against powerful vested interests.
Tuesday’s communique seemed like a step in a new direction, but given that reforms have been talked about for a decade and not implemented, the statement is unlikely to convince the skeptics. Much may depend on the makeup of the team empowered to push through the changes, and the determination to overcome opposition.
“The Third Plenum has achieved a midway result,” said Chen Gong of the Anbound Consulting think tank in Beijing. “The fact that a leading team has been formed to deepen reforms shows a conclusion could not be reached over many issues at the meeting. It shows the complexity of the situation and the need to do a lot more work.”
…
Here coastal elitist pointy headed liberal Los Angeles Times wets the bed on climate change (linked from Drudge, which also links a requisite “it’s cold and snowing somewhere” article to keep the slack-jawed, mouth-breather crowd happy), enjoy the die-off, loosers!
“Climate change will disrupt not only the natural world but also society, posing risks to the world’s economy and the food and water supply and contributing to violent conflict … glaciers are shrinking and plants and animals have shifted their ranges in response to rising termperatures. As global warming continues through the 21st century, many species will face greater risk of extinction, marine life will shift toward the poles and seawater will grow more acidic … By 2100, hundreds of millions of people in coastal areas will be flooded or displaced by rising sea levels. The arid subtropics will have less fresh water … The global food supply is also at risk, with yields of wheat, rice, corn and other major crops projected to drop by as much as 2% each decade for the rest of the century, even as demand rises.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-climate-change-20131112,0,6958165.story
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jul/10/science/la-sci-sn-global-population-growing-faster-than-thought-20130710
“Nigeria, the West African nation slightly larger than Texas, is on track to surpass the United States as the world’s third-most populous country by 2050. The size of its population may rival that of China by the end of the century, unless something dramatic happens.”
For some reason I think something dramatic will happen.
Like a genocidal war between the Christian south and the Muslim north.
When there isn’t enough to go around, civil wars and ethnic cleansing are a real possibility. And imagine how efficiently it could be done with 22nd century weaponry!
I cannot wait to read all the article which will be written in a decade how we are going to die due to the global cooling which will be occurring by then.
I cannot wait to see what a utopia this planet becomes when it has 10 billion of “God’s miracles” eating and sh*tting and driving cars and burning gas and oil and coal and turning up their air conditioners and getting new smartphones every year.
Still waiting to see the data which shows the warming that occurred between 1978 and 98 was primarily caused by man. Every day I see studies that increase the natural cause portion. So far this year, the first ten months, we are .582 F warmer than average. Based on nine months of NASA ground based data with one month of UAH to get to the ten months. In 1998 we finished at .61 F warmer. The AGW computer models said we should be a full 1 F higher than the 1998 number by now. Can we break the 1998 number this year? Still possible but highly unlikely. Can we come close to where the models said we would be, impossible. But the AGW still projects the warming into the future as if the last 15 years have not occurred. That is not science that is bad religion.
I cannot wait to see what a utopia this planet becomes when it has 10 billion of “God’s miracles”
Some projections are now showing Africa reaching 4B by 2100. That’s a long way out and lot can happen between now and then, but that is still is a scary number.
Why worry if Africa’s population hits 4B in 2100? I-pads will only cost like $0.25 by then.
Why worry if Africa’s population hits 4B in 2100? I-pads will only cost like $0.25 by then.
And we’ll all be dead by then … even BiLA!
And we’ll all be dead by then … even BiLA!
Don’t be too sure! This statement rings of “heavier than air flight is impossible”…Who knows what the next 10-50 years will bring in terms of longevity.
But will extended life treatments be covered by Obamacare and how much out of pocket will you have to pay to live to 300?
Who knows what the next 10-50 years will bring in terms of longevity.
I know. We’re all dead in the end. BiLA’s “exertions” will be laughed at by God as will all of ours. Vanity has no chance against reality.
Coming soon to Obama’s America:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-11/army-storms-caracas-electronics-stores-shoppers-follow.html
The squad correctly predicted that “social justice” will be achieved by looting Foot Locker. See also the recent flash mob lootings in Chicago. The Free Sh*t Army will get their free sh*t, by any means necessary. And if you don’t like that, you are a racist.
The spook predicts that in the future you will have to visit two different shoe stores to get tennis shoes.
One store will sell left shoes only, the other will only sell the right shoe.
You heard it here first.
One store will sell left shoes only, the other will only sell the right shoe.
only makes sense. feet aren’t perfectly symmetrical you know.
Reminds me of a Mel Gibson Vietnam War film, where a person talks about his relatives from the Civil War would meet to buy a pair of shoes because one only has a right foot and the other only had a left foot due to the Civil War. Or as it is known in the South, the War of Northern Aggression.
“We were Soldiers”, I think was the name of the film.
And if you don’t like that, you are a racist.
What’s your problem with you spouting “racist” all the time? Are you racist?
That’s racis’!
Hope and Change
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/how-people-lie-about-gay-sex-and-homophobia.html
On a related note, has anyone seen 2banana lately?
Busy signing up for the O’Care?
In an Obama reeducation camp run by FEMA?
An education camp would make more sense. Reeducation would imply that he had some education at some point.
Post-2012 election drinking binge finally caught up with him?
See also the recent flash mob lootings in Chicago.
Mainstream media doesn’t want to discuss black flash mobs perpetrating violence and looting in the cities. Mainstream media doesn’t want to discuss the latest craze to come out of slums: Hunting Polar Bears, otherwise known as the Knockout Game…
This is nothing new.
Maybe it’s the natural evolution of cow tipping.
How’d you find about it if the mainstream medis isn’t covering it? Did you read about in some alternative news source?
How’d you find about it if the mainstream medis isn’t covering it? Did you read about in some alternative news source?
Of course. The only national mainstream media to even mention the phenomena was an article in the WSJ back in June. Meanwhile, assaults and even fatalities continue to mount.
Consumer surplus is the difference between what a consumer pays for an item versus the maximum he’d pay for it.
More and more of that consumer surplus has been claimed by Wall Street (via debt) enabled by politicians (who guarantee that debt and also profit from larger contributions). Injecting debt into the supply chain is just one excellent way to get a piece of the consumer surplus.
This is a titanic undercurrent which is the thing I think will lead to a significant change in the system. While there are more registered voters who believe they are benefited by the system than those who are screwed by the system, the current system will continue. This reduction in consumer surplus will effect that tipping point.
Wall Street is trying to take a cut of every transaction, as politicians already do with taxes. Google the “metals warehousing scandal”.
In housing, education, health care, commodities, one can see reduced consumer surplus and increased profit claimed by Wall Street, enabled by government backing.
I don’t think Wall Street or politicians will be able to control themselves in this effort to claim more and more consumer surplus.
Too much consumer surplus theft leads to revolution.
Reject Clown Car Culture. Lots of people are.
The only downside is, all the bike racks are full these days. If I don’t get to the train by 7am, I have to lock up to a lamp post.
If I go in after 8am, I have to walk down Charles St until I find an available post.
It was below freezing last night, still full bike racks bright & early this morning:
http://picpaste.com/d823fd6ae680f495627b5e4b15342bbe.bmp
Not a lot of fun to ride the bike in freezing rain or snow, is it?
We’re going to find out since I’m on that MMM tip.
I’m allowing myself 10 days this winter for commuting car use. I doubt I’ll come close. I hated driving to work yesterday even though the traffic was light due to the federal holiday. I took in some winter suits and jackets and brought home some summer clothing so at least I’d get some value out of the car.
Learn to wipe out to the right. NEVER wipe out to the left.
Is Obamacare a wipe out to the left or to the right?
AbysmalCare is a wipe right up the center…. Now before it get’s dropped in the $hitter, take a good look at it. Go ahead…. it’s ugly and smelly but that’s Obamas creation….
‘AbysmalCare is a wipe right up the center’
A lotta sad pandas have disappeared from this blog recently. I’m feeling better, however. Diane Feinstein (FOH - California) has joined the Clinton’s in sticking a knife in Obama’s back on this thing. Oh the Huge Manatee!
Is Obamacare a wipe out to the left or to the right?
Both. It might “wipe out” because it is greatly flawed. However, it has changed the argument forever. From now on, heath-care in America will now be considered a quasi-right. As it should be, and has it’s been for 50 years in other civilized countries.
Civilized.
Squeal Rio. Squeal like a pig!
Squeal Rio. Squeal like a pig!
Wow Ben, very erudite.
Oh please. You were posting on my blog, what, 2 weeks ago, that this thing was the greatest thing since sliced bread. Now the Democrats are bailing and you squeal? Squeal socialist! Squeal like a pig! Watch your socialist dreams go down the drain. “Americans” as you call them aren’t socialist.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tjEckdpSW0
You were posting on my blog, what, 2 weeks ago, that this thing was the greatest thing since sliced bread.
“Oh please” It is and was. Think bigger. “ObamaCare” is the “greatest thing since sliced bread” It has changed the argument.
Health-care is now a “right”.
American’s won’t go back to money-controlled barbarism in health-care. You can’t stop this train.
‘It has changed the argument. Health-care is now a “right”. American’s won’t go back’
Ha ha! I guess you are the last to get the message. Obama is a freaking joke because of this and you along with him. That’s the thing with trying to evaluate political opinion under a street cam in Brazil. You don’t really know what the F- is going on.
Ha ha! I guess you are the last to get the message. Obama is a freaking joke because of this and you along with him
The message is that health-care is now a “right”.
Like in every other modern, industrial nation, for about the past 50 years.
What is so “strange” about that? What can possibly be weird about that? What world do ya’ll live in? What eon?
‘What world do ya’ll live in? ‘
I guess you don’t get the US news down there, but this thing is blowing up worse than a pressure cooker. Hang on to your hat cuz we may even have to discredit some of your socialist BS before this is done.
Don’t feel bad Rio; socialism always fails.
LOL. Riding a bike to work is great until:
* you get a flat
* your bike is stolen
* you get hit by a car
* you hit a car
* you get erectile dysfunction, genital numbness, low sperm count, etc.
Sorry, but i’ll keep the mountain biking to the weekends and continue to drive my SUV to and from work when I have to go into the office. My groin and my wife will thank me…
Do you really want Joe to breed?
Downlow Joe needs to breed to make the wife-beard look more believable.
you get erectile dysfunction, genital numbness, low sperm count, etc.
I stopped riding a bicycle for that reason alone. Even stopped doing a casual ride to park. My crotch been happy ever since.
I turn 31 this week, I truly doubt erectile problems. I will consider transitioning down to near 0% use of the seat. Right now I’ll have a seat when going down a significant hill or coasting to a red light. I would never for a minute consider going back to a 35-40 mile car commute. I’m not a low T bro.
I’m not a low T bro.
Is that your daily affirmation? Does it work?
“I turn 31 this week, I truly doubt erectile problems”
Remember Joe, attorneys cannot use Viagra it just makes us taller.
I know how to fix a flat and I know where all the bike shops are. I had flats this fall but now I have new winter tires on, not going to be an issue there.
Amtrak cops & Homeland Security, plus normal city police. No one’s stealing bikes near Penn Station or Union Station. My daily commuter bike is also very boring, I don’t use my Kestrel for city riding.
Bike lanes & one way streets for 90% of my trip. I guess there could be an accident, but at rush hour all the cars are just ideling/sitting as I ride by.
Never had problems with those. I ride maybe 45 minutes a day, it’s not my main workout. I probably would stop riding if I had any of those. I don’t sit on the seat very much, not sure how that factors in.
Amtrak cops & Homeland Security, plus normal city police
I don’t recall seeing Homeland Security cops out here.
A sure sign of how American is run by the .1% for the benefit of the .1% …
http://picpaste.com/0670b0603a349ca7fe7cebb4cfb1d9f1.bmp
“Flagship space for lease. . . . Consumer base includes the White House . . . 9,145 lawyers within 3 blocks.”
LOL for days. That’s a commercial real estate leasing sign on a building across the street from our office building.
I just finished reading “This Town” by Mark Leibovich, great book!
goon
The book does sound delicious. Thanks.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/28/books/review/this-town-by-mark-leibovich.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Hey GS-Fixr! What do you think of the soon to be delivered Comac-919 airliner? Would you put you family on board one?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919
Second question GS-Fixr what do you think of Allegiant airlines it has begun to fly into Burlington. I know I will not fly it but I am interested in your opinion.
I think he mentioned once that they do their own maintenance.
I think American Airlines was doing their maintenance but I might have missed his post.
I’ve flown them out of ICT. Older airplanes, but they don’t put a huge number of “cycles” on their airplanes (typically an out and back per day).
(As it turns out, they approached me about being a contract maintenance guy 8-10 years back, got an idea of how they do their aircraft maintenance…….they were looking for someone who had some actual 121/135/Jet experience. Talked with a maintenance guy type, not an H.R. type. Seemed to have it together. I’d have done it, except my contract at the time prevented me from doing so)
I’d fly them again.
I guess my concerns with Allegiant are primarily their managements connections to ValuJet along with the fact they are flying planes from the 1980s but I do appreciate your knowledge about the operations. Less worried about a plane dropping on South Burlington.
BTW, here is an article about them and American:
http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/3910/allegiant-signs-30m-maintenance-contract-with-american
Notice that they don’t seem to have any plans to get a Type Certificate from the FAA or EASA. Mandatory, if you plan on selling it overseas.
If it were a “free market”, the useful load and fuel burn numbers would be the make or break numbers to look for. A few percent reductioin in fuel burn is a make/break deal for the airline guys. Boeing and Airbus have had 50-60 years of “tribal knowledge” on how to build design aircraft like this. the Chinese are essentially starting from scratch.
Of course, things like “fuel efficiency” may not matter. If the Chinese commies tell all of their bootstrapping, “Producers, not parasites”/We-built-it-ourselves types that developing and flying Chinese airplanes is a National Priority, and anyone buying anything else might find themselves looking at the grass grow from the wrong side (literally or figuratively)……..
Of course Boeing (especially) and Airbus, and their associated primary vendors (GE-CFM) having “gained access to the Chinese market” by exporting know-how to China at zero cost, while throwing their home market sub-contractors and employees under the bus, may suddenly find out they don’t have as many sales in China as they thought they were going to have.
Note that (at least initially) the engines/avionics are still US/Euro made. That’s where the REAL money is. A lot will depend on whether GE-CFM/P&W /Honeywell/Rockwell Collins/Thales are willing to screw Boeing and Airbus for “access to the Chinese market”.
Our idiot government/business leaders have basically make China the only “growth” market left. Which the Chinese plan on leveraging to the max.
The CEO’s got theirs everyone else can pound sand.
This is the gaping hole of capitalism, short term gain and exporting the loses to others is a winning stratedgy.
Can’t get mad at the Chinese (at least not yet…….we’ll see how their Ferengei-type business practices, and taking their place as the leaders of the “everybody thinks they suck, but we need their money” class plays world-wide.
Our problem was that our business-types wanted a US colonial empire, but the general public was less than supportive. For a long time we weren’t as good/ruthless, or as conditioned to dominate the wretched refuse as the Euros, the Russians or the Japanese were.
Of course, things like “fuel efficiency” may not matter. If the Chinese commies tell all of their bootstrapping, “Producers, not parasites”/We-built-it-ourselves types that developing and flying Chinese airplanes is a National Priority, and anyone buying anything else might find themselves looking at the grass grow from the wrong side (literally or figuratively)……..
But … but …. but that’s protectionism!
As for lack of certs, I wonder how many 3rd world countries will look the other way and buy Chinese jets in exchange for favors and kickbacks to “important” people, which Boeing can’t do because US law forbids it.
That is why companies use agents and consultants in foreign countries to help them sell, and hear not evil and see no evil.
gary shilling get’s it
finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/forget-fed-interest-rates-heading-lower-shilling-says-171013982.html
Did he give a time horizon for his “lower interest rates” prediction? Because today they are headed skyward.
He has in the past, suggesting 4-5 years I believe. I’m going to predict longer. He is basing this on history, and with robotics and outsourcing and consolidation of the buisness elite’s power over the gov the middle class globally will continue to decline and drive down consumption and increase unemployment. When the market collapses (due to higher rates and a decline in middle class) which it will, where will people flock to protect their wealth?
“Their wealth”???? LOLZ
We are already developing robots to pick crops, there is going to be a lot of surplus labor in the Inland Empire. In fact, there already is a high unemployment rate in the area.
The only period in U.S. interest rate history of which I am aware where rates remained at comparable levels to the current ones over any length of time lasted from roughly 1933-1948 — 15 years.
“gary shilling get’s it”
Eh… not really.
Well at least more than Joe will be, if he doesn’t stop riding that bike.
“It really depends on your view of inflation and deflation…the greatest determiner of bond yields” says Shilling. “Now we’re at 1.2% inflation–the Fed wants 2% or higher. The real risk is deflation.”
Doesn’t it also depend on your view of whether the Fed can get what it wants? For instance, if the Fed could wave a magic wand and create 2% inflation, then why didn’t the BOJ do the same to stave off 20+ years of asset price decline from 1990-2010+?
Here is the link to the Transunion Press Release:
http://newsroom.transunion.com/press-releases/transunion-mortgage-delinquency-rate-drops-nearly-1066953#.UoKACPmshcY
With foreclosure moratoriums in effect in all 50 states, what does it matter?
The -fixr listens to Sports Talk radio from time to time (and God have mercy on my soul…..)
Anyhoo, they were on a tear yesterday going off on how kids were supposedly being raised with a “everyone gets a trophy” attitude, and that winners were just naturally winners, and everyone else should recognize that fact, and get used to being losers. I’ve been hearing this theme more and more lately.
Okay…..lets just talk about what I’ve seen, in my youth baseball and slow-pitch softball days.
- What if the “winners” have bought off the referees and the rules makers? Then made rules that let them play 11 men on the field, while four of your guys got laid off/fired, and you could only play seven?
-What if the “winners” always seemed to manage to get onto the same team, either overtly or covertly?
(In my youth baseball days, there was a “draft” of the new players entering the league every year. Somehow, all of the best players always seemed to make it onto the same 2-3 teams. The “draft” was made to appear fair, because the best teams needed cannon fodder to play against. The PTB thought this was okay, because the only thing anybody wanted to brag about was winning State/Regionals, and screwing everybody else to make that happen was considered the cost of doing business).
Later, in adult leagues, they can avoid all of this show of “fairness”. My slow pitch league had one team I’d characterize as “semi-pro”. They beat the crap out of the rest of the league, every time out. It was great fun for them, not so much for everyone else.
Eventually, the league folded……..seems that the losers eventually get tired of taking time out of their day to play softball, just to get their brains beat in.
My brother’s experiences as a Big 12 football recruit illustrated that farther up the food chain, the only difference is the tools the winners have to influence/coerce people to sign up with certain programs.
the only difference is the tools the winners have to influence/coerce people to sign up with certain programs.”
Club basketball beats the crap out of high school ball these days. Some winner high school teams “recruit” club players to their schools. Ahem Westlake and Oak Christian, Calabasas, the Mission schools. Recruit right out of Simi Valley for example.
And then they beat the crap out of all the other high school basketball teams.
“how kids were supposedly being raised with a “everyone gets a trophy” attitude”
That doesn’t help at all the kids know they have been gamed.
Both of my little brothers needed scholarships to go to college. Ditto me and brother #2.
Subtly or not, it was suggested to the older one that his little brother might have trouble getting playing time (and exposure to college recruiters/scouts), if he didn’t choose the “right” school.
Some people throw the “BS” flag, and say that a coach would NEVER put an inferior player on the field over a better player.
To this, I say “BS”. If for no other reason, a player with somewhat inferior playing skills, but superior azz-kissing skills, will be viewed as more of a “team player”. Why are so many coaches sons quarterbacks? Why are so many NFL coaches the mediocre spawn of former player/coaches?
And nobody loves “team players” more than the “Leader” Class/ PTB/1%ers.
Why are so many coaches sons quarterbacks? Why are so many NFL coaches the mediocre spawn of former player/coaches?
Good point. Applies to the auto racing world as well even though far fewer kids are reaching for and grasping that brass ring.
In 1863 Abraham Lincoln issued a proclamation setting aside the last Thursday of November as a national day of thanks. This morning Walmart (WMT) issued a press release that marked the end of Thanksgiving as it we know it. The holiday has been replaced by a nationwide bargain bonanza. While retailers like Macy’s (M), Target (TGT) and Kmart (SHLD) had already declared their stores open for business on what was once Thanksgiving, Walmart upped the ante by eliminating the word “Thursday” entirely.
“Black Friday is our day - our Super Bowl,” declared Walmart’s US president Bill Simon. “We’re excited to give our customers an incredible Black Friday with shopping hours that will allow them to take advantage of great prices on Thanksgiving night and all weekend long.” If you can give people Black Friday deals a day early, “Thursday” as a concept loses all meaning. What was Thanksgiving is now Black Friday Eve.
Retailers have been quietly violating the line between Thursday vacation and Black Friday for years. As Matt Nesto points out in the attached video, more than 35 million Americans went shopping on Thanksgiving last year according to the National Retail Federation. There are only 240 million people over 18 in the entire country. If more than 15% us are going to be shopping anyway it hardly seems fair to be mad at Walmart for wanting a piece of the action.
I have never and will never go shopping on Thankgiving, now will any of my family. We mostly avoid “Black Friday” as well, eschewing the mob for “Cyber Monday”, or just online shopping over the weekend.
I’ve actually started to seriously consider boycotting any retail stores that open on Thanksgiving, but like the poster above said, it’s hard to get angry when 15% of the adult population has decided dealing with crowds and buying Chinese-made crap is better than relaxing with family.
Once you burn your house down deep frying the turkey, you need to buy stuff.
What was Thanksgiving is now Black Friday Eve.
And there you have it. Kind of inevitable I guess.
Wow is the MSM starting to throw Obama under the bus:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/secret-dirty-cost-obamas-green-power-push-051337237.html
It is too late to get your credibility back. When the Republicans were actually pointing out how the Obamacare regs were going to throw people off their insurance policies, you should have investigated as well as numerous other stories, instead of just parroting the administrations talking points.
It gets worse. From America’s first black president to the second:
Clinton to Obama: Let Americans keep canceled health plans
Aamer Madhani, USA TODAY 2:13 p.m. EST November 12, 2013
(Photo: Brendan Smialowski, AFP/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — Former President Bill Clinton said that President Obama should honor his oft-repeated pledge and allow people to hang on to health care plans that are being canceled as a result of the Affordable Care Act.
“I personally believe, even if it takes a change in the law, that the president should honor the commitment the federal government made to those people and let them keep what they’ve got,” Clinton said in an interview at OZY.com published on Tuesday.
…
http://smallbusiness.yahoo.com/advisor/finally-someone-else-says-housing-market-rebound-suspicious-175042329.html
A cute joke, that could apply to all politicians…
Clocks in Heaven
A man died and went to Heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the
Pearly Gates, he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him. He asked, “What are
all those clocks?”
St. Peter answered, “Those are lie-clocks. Everyone on Earth has a
lie-clock. Every time you lie, the hands on your clock will move.”
“Oh”, said the man. “Whose clock is that?”
“That’s Mother Teresa’s. The hands have never moved, indicating she’s never
told a lie.”
“Incredible,” said the man. “And whose clock is that one?”
St. Peter responded, “That’s Abraham Lincoln’s clock. The hands have moved
twice, telling us that Abe told only two lies in his entire life.”
“Where’s President Obama’s clock,” asked the man?
“Obama’s clock is in Jesus’ office. He’s using it as a ceiling fan.”
This is a joke.
Some actress named Reese stabbed her husband.
Witherspoon?
No, with her knife.
This is not a joke.
Reese Witherspoon’s Famed Ojai Estate Sells at a Large Loss
By Lauren Schutte
Mon, Nov 11, 2013
Realtor.com/WireImage]
If those walls could talk … they’d have a lot to say.
According to property records, Reese Witherspoon is this close to unloading her massive — and rather famous — estate in California’s Ojai Valley.
While the “Mud” actress initially listed the nine bedroom, seven bathroom, 5,000-square-foot property for $10 million, the sale pending price tag shows she’s taking $5.9 million for it.
http://uk.omg.yahoo.com/gossip/celeb-news/reese-witherspoon-famed-ojai-estate-sells-large-loss-201642955.html -
Mmmm! Gold at $1270 spot. $1200 is its 3 year low and that was this year. I can see a great place to put several spare fiat money paper veeeeeeeeeeery soon!
Are you expecting others to soon have more fiatscos available to bid up the price? Why would you expect this if the Fed is serious about tapering? Or do you believe they are bluffing?
I no longer think of tapering vs not tapering as conditions for gold to go up. I read an article that showed gold going up when interest rates go up and going down when interest rates going down. Some of it made sense.
The issue is that the electorate is mostly wolves. Their agents, politicians, will confiscate part of our electronic assets to “solve” the debt problem. I cannot see any other way out of the debt.
“I read an article that showed gold going up when interest rates go up and going down when interest rates going down.”
Was that data from a period of high inflation, when the interest rate increases reflected a non-quantitatively-eased inflation risk premium? In that case I could see it.
Given interest rate suppression through money printing, I don’t see it.
“…confiscate part…”
I can see that as a rationale for owning (and hiding) physical. But didn’t they outlaw ‘hoarding’ physical during the 1930s? If you are comfortable illegally hiding your stash, then good luck to you.
Part one: yes
Part two: I was rowing in my boat in a lake with all my metals and suddenly an earthquake hit and the waves caused m boat to capsize. My gold all sank. That was last month. Fortunately I am alive.
Nov. 12, 2013, 10:15 p.m. EST
Asia stocks fall as China meeting disappoints
By Daniel Inman
Asian stocks moved lower after China’s leaders failed to provide a clear direction on policy over the coming decade, while the Nikkei’s strong upward streak in the last two sessions came to a halt.
Stocks in China in particular reacted badly to Tuesday’s conclusion of the Third Plenum - a four day meeting that will set the course for the world’s second-largest economy for the coming ten years. The communique that followed the meeting called for fewer investment restrictions and greater rights for farmers, but was lacking in specific details.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI -1.33%) fell 1.3%, with Chinese companies listed in the city falling sharply — the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 1.9%. The Shanghai Composite (CN:SHCOMP -0.80%) fell 0.8% in the mainland.
China economic data have picked up in recent months, relieving concerns over a slowdown earlier in the year. The Third Plenum was important because it gave an opportunity for the new government to present a plan on how it would reshape the economy in order to achieve sustainable growth. The negative market reaction points toward dissatisfaction over the lack of details after the meeting.
More broadly, the U.S. provided Asia with a negative lead as investors digested conflicting comments from two Federal Reserve presidents over when the central bank may move to start reducing its bond buying.
Australia’s S&P (ASX 200 AU:XJO -1.12%) fell 0.5% and South Korea’s Kospi (KR:SEU -1.13%) lost 0.8%.
Japan’s Nikkei (JP:NIK -0.45%) was down 0.3% after a 3.6% gain over the past two sessions — the market’s largest two-day rise since early September. The move higher in stocks was encouraged by a weakening of the yen, which started to fall at the end of last week after a strong U.S. October labor report gave the dollar some upward momentum.
After weakening towards the ¥100 to the dollar mark in the past few days, the yen (USDJPY -0.14%) strengthened in Asia — last at ¥99.51 compared with ¥99.63 late Tuesday in New York.
…
In case any of the politicos who occasionally stray here give a flying fark, there is no way in heaven, earth or hell that I would ever vote for Hillary Clinton. However I will give Elizabeth Warren a serious look if she runs.
Elizabeth Warren fires latest shot at Wall Street as presidential buzz swirls
November 12, 2013, 1:04 PM
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, she of the intense presidential buzz, ripped Wall Street lobbyists in a speech Tuesday as she stumped for her modern version of the Glass-Steagall Act.
The Massachusetts Democrat – the subject of a New Republic piece that has tongues wagging on Wall Street and in Washington – didn’t mention White House speculation in a speech prepared for delivery to Americans for Financial Reform and the Roosevelt Institute. But she displayed the same firebrand approach that led Politico to dub her in a headline “Wall Street’s Nightmare.”
In the speech, Warren will say that “it’s time to act” on a bill sponsored by herself and other senators including Arizona Republican John McCain that would “wall off” depository institutions from riskier activities like swaps dealing and private-equity.
“The last thing we should do is wait for more crises – for another London Whale or LIBOR disgrace or robo-signing scandal – before we take action,” Warren says in her prepared remarks.
“Now sure, the lobbyists for Wall Street say the sky will fall if they can’t use deposits in checking accounts to fund their high-risk activities,” Warren will say. “But they said that in the 1930’s too. They were wrong then, and they are wrong now.”
Warren’s bill hasn’t gotten much traction. For that matter, some are openly dismissing the notion that she may challenge Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. “She’s not running,” Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas told Politico.
…
Tell us, do ya think she will order our troops home? I don’t think so.