November 18, 2013

Bits Bucket for November 18, 2013

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




RSS feed

423 Comments »

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 04:24:33

janet (calamity) yellen was in favor of the trillion dollar coin. she was actually a proponent! now of course she has changed her mind. she’s against it.

she’s now head of the FED. the chairman and she was for the trillion dollar coin! is there any better way to prove she’s incompetent? i’m sure she’s going to prove to be the worst FED chairman of all time. she’ll make easy al and helicopter ben look like major hawks.

Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 05:45:17

Using the same mentality of having to pass a bill to find out what is in it we need to make Janet Yellen head of the Fed to find out is she if any good at it.

Besides, at this point what difference does it make?

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:05:24

the difference is even more incompetence.

Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 06:39:42

This was meant to be a bit of humor, something Hilliary might have said about the situation.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:43:55

ok, but i’m just saying she’s really frightening.

even the bernank rejected the trillion dollar coin idea immediately.

the trillion dollars coin is straight out of robert mugabe’s handbook of fiscal responsibility. we’d have been zimbabwe in no time.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:47:39

of course there is one bright spot. she eventually rejected the idea. so maybe she’s learned something. it’s just that she could EVER have embraced the idea is really scary.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 06:59:47

Ideas are not a requisite for a spokesperson.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 07:32:57

The trillion dollar coin threat was a bluff. Notice how the administration didn’t threaten to use it again during the last debt ceiling standoff. You can’t use a bluff more than once.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:49:19

The trillion dollar coin threat was a bluff.

it revealed the bluffers as idiots.

 
Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 08:05:20

I thought that this time the Obama Administration threatened to use the real thing this time.

 
Comment by polly
2013-11-18 09:00:39

The trillion dollar coin was not a bluff; it was a dare. Unofficial, not really mouth pieces of the democrats daring the republicans to make Congress irrelevant in all future discussions of the debt ceiling - essentially taking the debt ceiling off the table as a power of Congress entirely. The republicans blinked and raised the ceiling.

This most recent one, when the trillion dollar coin was not raised as a possibility at all was also a dare, but with the president taking the lead himself by saying that he demanded a clean debt ceiling raise/reopen the government bill and he wouldn’t negotiate on the budget details until it happened. But this time the dare was to actually hit the ceiling and cause Social Security checks to not go out on time to all the old people in your district. No member of Congress wants that. Not any of them. Especially not at a time when the polls indicated that the public considered that they “owned” the shut down issue.

Stop thinking poker. It is much too sophisticated a metaphor for DC. It is more like an elementary school playground.

And there would have been no economic effect if they had done the coin that hasn’t already happened. All the coin would have done is allow “borrowing” to do the spending that is already appropriated by Congress. Since the debt ceiling was raised both times, doing it with the coin instead of a debt ceiling increase would have made no difference. If we aren’t Zimbabwe now, we wouldn’t have been Zimbabwe with the coin.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 09:11:04

If we aren’t Zimbabwe now, we wouldn’t have been Zimbabwe with the coin.

Polly, no disrespect to you, but all you’re proving is that you don’t know the difference between how the FED creates dollars and how zimbabwe created its currency.

 
Comment by polly
2013-11-18 09:14:19

No, tj. You are proving that you don’t understand the difference between authorizing an increase in the debt ceiling and actual spending.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 09:17:56

creating the trillion dollar coin would have been just how zimbabwe created their dollars. the FED creates dollars in an entirely different way.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 09:46:45

The trillion dollar coin was not a bluff; it was a dare.

I still don’t believe they would have done it.

Stop thinking poker. It is much too sophisticated a metaphor for DC. It is more like an elementary school playground.

Good point.

 
Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-11-18 13:22:22

Of course they would’ve done the trillion dollar coin as opposed to defaulting. You’d have to be insane not to. If the US actually defaulted you could say good bye to reserve currency status and numerous other benefits that keep the US economy relatively safe and stable compared to actual banana republics. We may joke that the US is a banana republic, but c’mon, if you default and you’re harshly downgraded, do you really want to live with that uncertainty and volatility? In other words, do you want Oil City (or similar scenario) to be your actual life plan as opposed to some possible back up plan?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 14:02:07

Of course they would’ve done the trillion dollar coin as opposed to defaulting.

making the trillion dollar coin WOULD be defaulting. it would be admitting there was no other way to pay. it would have been payment zimbabwe style. and that would have been the end of the dollar.

 
Comment by polly
2013-11-18 17:34:16

No,tj, it wouldn’t. Zimbabwe happens when you “create” way too much of your country’s currency and put it in circulation. In Zimbabwe, presumably, it was in the form of the country’s leaders stealing all or most and then putting it directly and immediately into the money supply as they exchanged it for another currency and put it into Swiss bank accounts. If the US minted the coin and then continued to use it as a reserve in the Fed (rather than Congress just authorizing more borrowing) for the same exact spending we are already doing, then there would be no destruction of the US dollar.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 17:57:05

Polly, i remember when you gave me some legal advice years ago. i know you’re a nice gal and i hate to argue with you.

and it wasn’t a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ question. you had to come back another day with the answer. i want to thank you for that and have you know i’ll never be disrespectful with you.

that said, let me explain..

Zimbabwe happens when you “create” way too much of your country’s currency and put it in circulation.

that’s not what really happens. it wouldn’t matter how much money they create, because absolutely none of it is legitimate.

In Zimbabwe, presumably, it was in the form of the country’s leaders stealing all or most and then putting it directly and immediately into the money supply as they exchanged it for another currency and put it into Swiss bank accounts.

they didn’t even have to steal it. the government just printed it and spent it as it wished. no money they printed was legit.

If the US minted the coin and then continued to use it as a reserve in the Fed (rather than Congress just authorizing more borrowing) for the same exact spending we are already doing, then there would be no destruction of the US dollar.

that isn’t a legitimate way to bring money into circulation. it would have no value until someone wanted to borrow it. if no one borrows the reserves, the reserves have no value. the FED can’t just print reserves and then declare they have so much wealth.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 18:07:57

Polly, i remember when you gave me some legal advice years ago….i want to thank you for that and have you know i’ll never be disrespectful with you.

Very telling tj, that you’ll be civil to people you disagree with only if they’ve helped you.

The “free-market” at work.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 18:32:31

you’ll be civil to people you disagree with only if they’ve helped you.

wrong comrade. i’m civil with people, i just treat them the way they treat me. Polly helped me and i remember it, that’s all.

you on the other hand, have a long history of having been a smarmy jerk to everyone you disagree with on this board.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 18:43:59

wrong comrade. i’m civil with people

lol Only with people who don’t call out your warped BS.

you …have a long history of having been a smarmy jerk to everyone you disagree with on this board.

liar. prove it. I only get real with those who start thinking they’re going to shut me up by calling me bs names and lying about me as you do. Hint: they won’t, you won’t. Is it not obvious?

Polly helped me and i remember it, that’s all.

She helped you so you’re not your usual fascist creepy self to her. Congats. The “Free Market” at work.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 19:13:30

liar. prove it. I only get real with those who start thinking they’re going to shut me up

comrade, i don’t think anyone or anything will shut you up. btw, what does ‘i only get real’ mean?

lying about me as you do.

the truth hurts, doesn’t it comrade man-goo?

She helped you so you’re not your usual fascist creepy self to her.

give me chuckle comrade. tell me how i’m a fascist. you sure can be entertaining.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2013-11-19 00:12:21

the FED can’t just print reserves and then declare they have so much wealth.

Ummm…. Sure they can: they’ve done that to the tune of $1 trillion dollars per year for the last several years—and no one has even blinked.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2013-11-19 00:13:59

and then declare they have so much wealth.

p.s. Have you seen their balance sheet lately? And no one even questions it.

Apparently they do “have so much wealth.”

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-19 05:51:51

Apparently they do “have so much wealth.”

well, well.. lookie who shows up after the party’s over. it’s the ‘ummm master’.

do you think starting with ‘ummm’ makes you look smarter? or maybe you think it makes you look superior in some way. is that it?

i’m happy that you disagree with me. it makes me smile inside knowing you believe so many things that are in error. i’ll never correct you on anything important. i want you to continue believing as you do. and if someone asks a question that i think you might want to know, i won’t answer them either. it’s much better to let you go on your error strewn life believing you know so much.

so carry on ‘ummm master’. make me smile.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-19 06:22:32

hmmmm…… just what I thought.

Thank you TJ

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 07:10:45

We have to allow bubbles to inflate in order to finally notice them through the lens of the rear view mirror once they have grown to gargantuan size.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 07:52:59

Yellen Sees No Bubbles; Stockman Sees Them “Everywhere”
By Lauren Lyster | Daily Ticker – Fri, Nov 15, 2013 9:00 AM EST

There are no asset bubbles – not in equity markets, not in the housing market.

That’s according to Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen, who was asked about bubbles in her confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee Thursday.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Yellen, citing valuations, told lawmakers, “Stock prices have risen pretty robustly…[but] you would not see stock prices in territory that suggest…bubble-like conditions.”

The S&P 500 is up 25% this year, hasn’t had a pullback of 10% since fall 2011 and has hit a series of all-time-highs this year, including on Thursday. (This came after Yellen’s “dovish” remarks in the hearing indicating she supports the Fed’s easy money policies, as expected.)

Yellen also deconstructed the housing bubble argument saying, for example, that private investors are buying homes in some of the markets that were hardest hit, which is “logical” and something the Fed is watching.

Some disagree with Yellen’s view of market bubbles. In the accompanying video, former Reagan budget director and author of The Great Deformation David Stockman argues that “we have bubbles everywhere” — in junk bonds, stocks, and a housing market “riddled with speculators.”

He blames the Fed for “dripping monetary morphine into Wall Street” and creating these bubbles, and he calls for the Fed to stop its easy money policies immediately.

Related: Forget the Fed, Interest Rates Are Heading Lower, Shilling Says

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, argues you can only identify a bubble “in retrospect,” and he doesn’t think we have one currently in stocks or housing.

“Do we have prices rising? Do we have leverage being applied? Yes,” Kotok tells The Daily Ticker. “So if that continues it creates a bubble.” And after the fact, he says, you can point to it and say “aha.”

“If the Fed persists in the [current] policy and doesn’t get to some tapering, then the Fed would contribute to it and exacerbate it,” he adds.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Neuromance
2013-11-18 10:03:18

If you look at any image closely enough, one stops seeing the image. A clear case of “there too many trees so I can’t see the forest.”

Part of being an effective high level manager is the ability to select highly effective lieutenants who can also select highly effective lieutenants. All top level managers live in a bubble to some degree. So they must surround themselves with effective people who can accurately describe reality to them.

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:20:58

“what difference does it make?”

Careful you sound like Hillary.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 08:16:49

Why not convert your hoardings into bitcoin, and ride the non-bubble all the way up to the top of its peak?

Or even better, park your hoardings in the federal government’s officially sanctioned investment vehicle: residential housing?

Bitcoin flies above $600 on hopes of D.C. blessing, China buzz
November 18, 2013, 6:40 AM
Bloomberg
A twenty-five bitcoin

Washington D.C.’s blessing and a Chinese feeding-frenzy: What more could a virtual currency ask for?

Bitcoin was off to the races on Monday, soaring to new highs above $600 — to $618.94 — and last at $610 in choppy trade on Mt. Gox.

Plus, on Monday the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs is due to hold a hearing on the challenges law enforcement and regulatory agencies face dealing with bitcoin.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 08:28:50

Nov. 18, 2013, 10:26 a.m. EST
Bernanke: Virtual currencies hold promise, risk
By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Bitcoins and other virtual currencies, like any online-payment system, “may hold long-term promise” and could one day “promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system,” said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. However, virtual currencies also may pose risks “related to law enforcement and supervisory matters,” Bernanke said in a Sept. 6 letter to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs released on Monday.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 21:04:32

Seriously, folks, I was joking when I suggested you convert all your dollars into bitcoin.

Bitcoin: What is it? What should government do?
Donna Leinwand Leger, USA TODAY 8:07 p.m. EST November 18, 2013
Lawmakers are grappling with how and whether to regulate the virtual currency
Story Highlights
- Federal agents say Bitcoin makes it easy for criminals to launder money
- Advocates say it could be useful for people in developing countries
- Virtual currency must follow same rules as other financial institutions, Treasury Department says

Virtual currency Bitcoin is “experimental” and remains “high risk” for most consumers, the Bitcoin Foundation’s general counsel told a Senate committee in a hearing Monday on the emerging technology.

Lawmakers are bedeviled by a technology whose growing popularity has raised questions about whether or how it should be regulated, said Homeland Security Committee Chairman Tom Carper, D-Del.

“Virtual currencies, perhaps most notably Bitcoin, have captured the imagination of some, struck fear among others and confused the heck out of many of us,” Carper said. “Fundamental questions remain about what a virtual currency actually is, how it should be treated and what the future holds.”

Protecting consumers remains problematic for Bitcoin and other decentralized virtual currencies, said Patrick Murck, general counsel for the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization that promotes the virtual currency and its technology.

“This is a high-risk environment, and potentially it’s not quite ready for mass consumer adoption,” Murck said.

Officials at the Justice and Treasury departments have recognized Bitcoin and other virtual currencies as legitimate and financially viable. Bitcoin’s popularity and value have soared, topping $650 for a single Bitcoin on Monday.

 
 
Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-11-18 13:18:54

You guys will be wishing for Ben B to return. Yellen is going to be much more aggressive (dovish) and continue with the easing (printing) for at least 1 quarter more than Ben, if not a full half year.

Comment by United States of Crooked Politicians and Bankers
2013-11-18 14:40:31

Wrong. Yellen could be the worst Fed Chair in history, and I will still loathe Bernanke and Greenspan. I would never wish for a return of those crooks. Nice try, though.

 
 
 
Comment by Blackhawk
2013-11-18 04:52:41

“Andrew Huszar, the former Fed official who managed its quantitative easing program, called the Fed’s policies “the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.

“http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/11/17/janet-yellen-federal-reserve-american-principles-project-editorials-debates/362119

While many have investments in the stock market, isn’t this creating another bubble? What happens when it goes pop?

Comment by WT Economist
2013-11-18 07:21:53

As was noted here at the time, TARP was nothing. We paid it back! So what?

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2013-11-18 05:18:31

I heard this from a friend who runs a small business with big business clients over the weekend.

He said that each year his customers say they can’t afford to pay what they did last year. Thus far he hasn’t cut his employees wages, but as his income keeps shrinking he’ll either have to do so soon or go out of business. He’s talked about just keeping things going until his lease is up, then seeking a job for $30 or $40 K.

He was recently at a meeting with a major U.S. company. Their sales are weak, because their customers are broke. They are going to try to cut prices to stimulate sales, but they told their suppliers that the suppliers will have to cut their own prices to make it work. The suppliers then said they’d have to demand lower prices from their suppliers.

If that results in less employment or lower wages in the U.S., however, the major U.S. company’s sales would go down, because it deals direct with the consumer. And if everyone is trying the same thing, falling prices will be matched by falling wages, and price cuts won’t work.

What if this is going on throughout the economy, despite zero percent interest rates and QE?

The executives are blaming the government and “uncertainty” for the weak economy. But the problem is certainty.

Comment by Taxpayers
2013-11-18 07:04:00

only government grows and gov worker wages
up double inflation in my county

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 07:11:48

From what country are you reporting?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 07:50:49

BTW, over a period when the population of the U.S. grew by over 50%, the size of the federal workforce has trended down, except for a couple of “bubbles” over time. The biggest was on Nixon’s watch.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Steve J
2013-11-18 10:14:38

Contractors.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 10:30:32

“Contractors.”

They are not government workers, but rather the private sector. In other words, they are better.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 10:42:26

They are not government workers, but rather the private sector. In other words, they are better.

You must be a Republican to make argument like that.

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-11-18 12:23:55

Better paid.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:07:53

“But the problem is certainty.”

Precisely.

Everyone knows the FedRes game. The game will continue until FedRes acts responsibly.

Your friend and his firm is dealing with price fixing, not inflation or deflation.

 
Comment by jose canusi
2013-11-18 07:09:15

The credit model is broken. That’s going to be problematic for those who deal direct with the consumer, such as home improvement vendors.

Got used appliances?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:11:28

as his income keeps shrinking he’ll either have to do so soon or go out of business. He’s talked about just keeping things going until his lease is up, then seeking a job for $30 or $40 K.

He was recently at a meeting with a major U.S. company. Their sales are weak, because their customers are broke. They are going to try to cut prices to stimulate sales, but they told their suppliers that the suppliers will have to cut their own prices to make it work. The suppliers then said they’d have to demand lower prices from their suppliers.

If that results in less employment or lower wages in the U.S., however, the major U.S. company’s sales would go down, because it deals direct with the consumer. And if everyone is trying the same thing, falling prices will be matched by falling wages, and price cuts won’t work.

i’ve been saying right here on this blog for a long time that this is what is going to happen. and it will get worse.

What if this is going on throughout the economy, despite zero percent interest rates and QE?

it is going on throughout the economy, and QE is doing nothing to stop it.

The executives are blaming the government and “uncertainty” for the weak economy. But the problem is certainty.

yes, many people see the calamity ahead.

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 10:47:48

Sounds like a situation where the price of houses needs to go down…

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 07:11:29

Sounds like Deflation. That’s what you get after the biggest credit expansion in history. We’ve been expanding credit for 40 years, to speculate in moonbeams and sugarplums, houses and bits of dirt. For a few years it has been evident that we have too much of everything and not enough actually necessary work to do. This is what fishing poles and paint brushes are for.

Good for your friend if he is not in debt.

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:18:06

That’s what you get after the biggest credit expansion in history.

the biggest problem isn’t even the credit expansion (cheap money). the biggest problem we have is the debt. spending. it can’t continue, but i don’t know how long we have.

deflation actually signals a strong economy, not a weak one.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 07:52:40

“The debt” covers quite a bit. I guess you mean the national debt. What do you think will stop “the debt” from increasing to infinity? Whatever it is, I’m still waiting for it to ride in.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:56:32

What do you think will stop “the debt” from increasing to infinity?

a few things could stop it. the worst would be the destruction of the dollar.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 08:20:29

Just sayin, but I think you have that inside out.

 
Comment by Patrick
2013-11-18 08:41:22

Higher interest rates will crush the stock and housing bubbles.

Special surtax taxes on capital gains - say 35%.

Higher interest rates in the other 75% of the world economy.

The government has to eliminate this greed factor which really doesn’t contribute in a real way to the economy.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:56:52

“deflation actually signals a strong economy, not a weak one” 1995, Some Japanese guy just laid off

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:59:18

the biggest problem we have is the debt. spending. it can’t continue, but i don’t know how long we have.

I do

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 07:36:43

Nice post WT…I enjoy real time boots on the ground economic stories like this…Thanks…

Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 07:39:05

Ditto.

 
 
Comment by rms
2013-11-18 08:22:39

“Their sales are weak, because their customers are broke.”

+1 Lived through that scenario back in the seventies, and since there were no QE programs the contraction was terrible. Fortunately I had youth on my side, so I could “wait it out” rather than having to work for next to nothing.

Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 08:33:19

I had youth on my side, so I could “wait it out” rather than having to work for next to nothing ??

I couldn’t…Wife & three kids…Volcker almost cost me everything…

Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 09:04:14

I had wife and kids then too. I worked for an oil refiner, which was great, until it wasn’t. What if Volker actually had no control over interest rates?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 09:15:16

What if Volcker actually had no control over interest rates ??

Oh he had control alright…He was quite arrogant about it with that cigar shoved in his mouth…

Need to take action on inflation, fine but you don’t do it in the radical way he did it with light speed…Nobody had time to prepare…He sent millions of responsible business people up in flames…

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 11:09:44

Maybe so, but I think he might have been largely a liar and did not have absolute control over the credit crisis.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 11:49:39

over the credit crisis ??

There was no “credit crisis”…He created one though in the interest of crushing inflation…He crushes inflation alright along with many people…Rich got richer…Many middle class become much poorer…

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 12:00:00

There was no “credit crisis”…

OK, so you hate Volker so much on a personal level that you don’t want to look at what was a major credit expansion and subsequent contraction.

IMO, you/they lost the stuff the day you/they singed the loan contract.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 12:16:04

“IMO, you/they lost the stuff the day you/they singed the loan contract.”

Isn’t that always the case with debt-junkyism?

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2013-11-19 00:19:48

He sent millions of responsible business people up in flames…

An alternate explanation: he educated them about interest-rate risk, something that they should have already understood, but didn’t…

 
 
 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 10:26:47

Gee, you don’t suppose outsourcing work to Third World countries, and using the threat of same to what remains of the workforce might have something to do with that?

Idiotic business managers. Outsourcing seemed like such a win-win. Lower the cost of production, then try to charge the same.

They just can’t get their heads around the fact that less income to the wretched refuse = lower sales.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-11-18 12:06:22

They just can’t get their heads around the fact that less income to the wretched refuse = lower sales.

+1. Foresight is underrated.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-11-18 11:50:29

I’m living through it right now. And it sucks.

 
 
Comment by United States of Crooked Politicians and Bankers
2013-11-18 13:43:43

One business does not an economy make. I’d like to know more about the actual business before I can draw any conclusions here.

 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2013-11-18 05:59:20

the dif in the 10yr between a hawk and yellen is what? .01%

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:08:23

we haven’t had a hawk in many years. a true hawk would have a free market in money, so the difference would be infinite.

Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 06:21:48

The word “hawk” now describes what people are forced to do with their belongings.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 06:48:28

tj…Are you old enough to have lived (as an independent adult) through the Volcker days ??

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:52:53

i have read that volker didn’t want to raise rates, that he was forced into it. yet he gets the credit for being a hawk. i believe those who say he was forced into it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2013-11-18 08:04:02

I was in my teens in the late 70s, and although I became a radical libertarian, I had to focus on my college rather than understand the Volcker situation. However, having watched Milton Friedman’s “Free To Choose,” I was impressed with the Friedmans. I read some of what they were for, Monetarism is the exact policy that Paul Volcker employed to tame inflation. It was the exact policy that self-described Capitalist Milton Friedman was for. Raise the rates to tame inflation.

The difference between now and 1980 is that wages are stagnant, and have been stagnant for years. So that is my argument in favor of more QE. or at least Milton Friedman would favor it.

There are things I disagree with Friedman, such as his ” negative income tax.” in general, I favor the Austrian economics, and not monetarism. Monetarism requires government. And we have seen government become more incompetent through he decades. Too much lead in the water that voters and politicians drink.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 08:20:02

if you’re in favor of manipulating the money supply higher, you’re asking for debasement of the currency. currency debasement or price inflation hurts everyone, but it hurt the least well off the most.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 08:43:06

The Magic Money Tree! The Favorite Flora Of Fools And Empty Pockets!

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:50:48

i have read that volker didn’t want to raise rates, that he was forced into it

You read wrong. Volker said he’d raise rates before he got the job.

How Volcker Launched His Attack on Inflation

Volcker met with the president in the Oval Office on July 24, 1979, to talk about the vacancy at the Fed. The discussion lasted less than an hour, and Volcker thought it had not gone well. Returning to New York that night, he met his two best friends, Larry Ritter and Bob Kavesh, both professors at NYU’s Graduate School of Business, for dinner.

“Well, I blew it,” Volcker told them. “I said that I attached great importance to the independence of the Federal Reserve and that I also favored a more restrictive monetary policy.”

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:06:17
 
 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:58:19

i answered you. it just may take a little while to show up.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:12:37

Deliver the smack down. ;)

 
Comment by jose canusi
2013-11-18 07:46:01

Hah, speaking of smack down, anyone check out the Di Blasio family “smack down dance”? I wanna see them do that when NYC starts imploding from a police force that stands back and ignores crime, now that Mr. Bill has dissed them good. But not to worry, the Di Blasios will get up on stage and invoke Batman or something with their smack down dance, and all will be well.

You just know it’s coming, too. The force won’t do anything as obvious as go on strike, nope. They’ll just be unavailable, or busy with something else when the bad stuff starts going down, and who can blame them? I give NYC maybe six months before it starts looking like the bad old days, and that’s optimistic.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-11-18 09:54:47

jose canusi: I wanna see them do that when NYC starts imploding from a police force that stands back and ignores crime, now that Mr. Bill has dissed them good.

The bloodiest of bleeding hearts has assumed command. New York has its peculiar decay and revival cycles and hopefully this round won’t be as destructive as the last one.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 14:19:13

The bloodiest of bleeding hearts has assumed command. New York has its peculiar decay and revival cycles and hopefully this round won’t be as destructive as the last one.

I think you are right. Freakonomics’ guy had the theory abosrtion was one of the main resons most cities have enjoyed the low crime rates.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 07:18:50

Volker didn’t want to raise the price of gasoline above a dollar either, but he put a good face on it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Steve J
2013-11-18 10:18:58

OPEC may have had something to do with that.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 07:39:51

Are you old enough to have lived (as an independent adult) through the Volcker days ??

I remember that a lot of people were furious with the Fed back then for raising interest rates so high. I remember banks offering double digit rates on CD’s back then. That was a good time to be a retiree with a nest egg, but a terrible time to be a borrower.

It caused a lot of pain and people were saying that Volcker was doing more harm than good. History, of course shows, that he did the right thing. Too bad that sacrifice wound up being squandered.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 07:47:20

The tax man liked it as well.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 07:52:41

but a terrible time to be a borrower ??

Yes, but it was a terrible time also for many prudent business people…His actions, not only dramatic but very fast blind sided many productive business throughout the country..Millions lost their jobs…Millions went broke and never recovered…

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 07:56:39

“but a terrible time to be a borrower….”

I don’t agree. It was a great time to buy a house with a mortgage. Prices were low. Soon interest rates dropped and you could refinance. Meanwhile your salary doubled and then tripled. Borrowing into a massive credit expansion is a wonder!

That’s what I remember.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 08:04:01

It was a great time to buy a house with a mortgage ??

Thats assuming you had a job that allowed you to qualify for a 13% mortgage…Besides, its a zero sum game….Your gain is someone else’s loss…That house you were buying was possibly from a owner who lost their job because Volcker crushed his employer…

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 08:19:21

No. The guy died from exposure to Agent Orange.

If you want the person on the other side of the trade to benefit most, buy a house today.

If you didn’t have a job, you weren’t buying a house. I guess it’s different these days.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 08:32:18

Yes, but it was a terrible time also for many prudent business people

I remember that well. People were saying that he was strangling the economy. Very bitter medicine, quite the opposite of the ZIRP nonsense we have today.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 08:46:08

If you didn’t have a job, you weren’t buying a house ??

Believe me…Not many people were buying houses with 13% + mortgages and the only people that were trying to sell into that market were acting out of desperation…I will take a excerpt out of a article that Carl posted here..I many ways it discribes the economic environment of the Volcker time period..And not just for real estate, but businesses as well..Sorry in advance for the long post;

I am a 46-year-old mother of three children. We have lost two farms since 1980, my mother in law’s farm as well as our own. We were forced to sell 160 acres of land that was very special to us. It was homesteaded by my husband’s great grandfather and for years had served as home to our cow and calf operation which we were forced to sell just a few months before we sold the land.

My husband became completely consumed by our circumstances caused by the farm crisis. He left me. Our family continued to deteriorate and our marriage ended in divorce. We had been through natural crises before—drought, flood, crop failure—these we accepted and went on.

But when the threat of losing everything comes to your doorstep because of the bad economy, low commodity prices and high interest on your base notes has left you hopelessly in debt, your faith is sometimes shaken. No one likes to consider that their life has been pointless.

 
Comment by Patrick
2013-11-18 08:51:14

Big difference from before.

Properties became well priced with almost 14% interest rates. When the rates rapidly fell to 9% profits dramatically increased.

This time around it will be losses that will increase - a result of higher interest rates.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 09:11:25

“left you hopelessly in debt…”

There it is. Long term debt is a fragile way to live. Yet the debt is not seen as the fundamental reason for failure.

We are more fragile now.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 09:22:13

Signing up for 30 years of indenture on a depreciating asset at a grossly inflated price is the best definition of “hopelessly in debt”.

Especially considering the same item can be rented for a small fraction of the cost.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 09:24:21

“left you hopelessly in debt…” There it is. Long term debt is a fragile way to live ??

Famers go into debt all the time even if they own their farm outright…Volcker raises the prime rate to 18% borrowing costs for a farmer go beyond what the crop, cows whatever can absorb…Couple that with a bad economy and falling commodity prices and its bye-bye…

“losing everything comes to your doorstep because of the bad economy, low commodity prices and high interest on your base notes has left you hopelessly in debt”

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 09:36:06

“Famers go into debt all the time…”

I know, though I have know some who didn’t follow the debt planting model. It is an unstable model, living on the bloody edge praying for good weather where you are and crappy weather everywhere else, and just make it through this year, and let’s throw in a new combine with air conditioned cab. That “everyone” does it does not change that it is a fragile way to do business.

Some of my family farmed through the dust bowl years in central Kansas. Three years without a “harvest”. They were miserable, but they didn’t lose the farm, because they were not in debt. BTW, Grandma became a banker during this time, and until the age of 90. She always advised people to get out of debt and to stay out of debt.

If you lose nearly everything the day you can’t make a debt payment, it could be someone else’s fault, or it might be that you were on a risky path by being in debt in the first place.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 10:03:06

I get what your saying about debt but its easier said than done…

Three years without a “harvest”. They were miserable, but they didn’t lose the farm, because they were not in debt ??

So they were in a position to weather the dust bowl…They had to do something to be able to accumulate some sort of reserves to be able to carry them through…How did they develop those reserves ?? Unless its handed down through generations you must earn it…Earning it likely comes with the risk of borrowing…Its probably how 95% of business in America function…And once in debt it will be the business cash flow that retires it…Business have ups and downs…Some self inflicted and some caused by the likes of Volcker…

Having no debt and being in business is nice to talk about but difficult to get from here to there without taking some risk…

or it might be that you were on a risky path by being in debt in the first place

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-11-18 10:15:24

BTW, Grandma became a banker during this time, and until the age of 90. She always advised people to get out of debt and to stay out of debt.

Doesn’t being a banker involve lending money to people?

 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 10:19:16

+1 Mighty…I never gave that a thought…

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 10:50:51

“Doesn’t being a banker involve lending money to people?”

Of course. It involves other things too. As president of a small town bank she also did a lot of personal finance advising.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 11:00:25

“How did they develop those reserves ?? Unless its handed down through generation…”

You have options when you are not in debt. They didn’t just sit there watching the wind blow. Grandma clerked at the bank and Grampa took up auto mechanics. So they could eat.

The farm was bought by her dad after they moved from Colorado in a horse drawn wagon. They might have had some reserves, I have no clue. Some of the kids moved away during that time too.

The concept of starting with little and building out of profits was clear to them. Today apparently it reads like fantasy.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 12:14:49

Somebody ceryainly loves cheap money. I hope they don’t whine about wealth or income disparity or some $hit like that.

 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:25:09

Read the Salon article…..the quote from the farmer’s wife was from 1980-81.

People have adapted. The “full time” farmers are farming thousands of acres. Anybody farming approx. 500 acres or less is doing it in conjunction with a full time job somewhere else.

Preferably with the wife working also, and somebody getting insurance thru their F/T employer.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:12:27

Sorry ScDave. Farmers can be expected to be good producers of crops they cannot be expected to anticipate geopolitical events caused by terrible policies. Here is how the lost of the two farms can be directly attributed to the naïve policies of Carter. The fall of the Shah which I have explained numerous times on this blog was attributed to the naïve policies of Carter than a democracy was possible in Iran. The Shah let up on the pressure of the mullahs and he fell causing oil prices to rise. This put farmers in a bad position due to rising fertilizer and oil prices. Then, the Russians not having to worry about the Shah were able to invade Afghanistan. Carter reacted by placing an embargo on agricultural products to Russia. US prices fell and other countries increased their agricultural exports over the coming years with the Soviet Union refusing to deal with us. Due to the inflation caused by the higher oil prices and loose monetary policy interest rates rose and farmers trying to survive went into debt at double digit rates.

The impact of higher oil prices and reduced US demand for agricultural products due to the embargo did not end just because Carter left office. The 80’s were not a good time for farmers. Sure if farmers had avoided all debt, they may have survived but I think we need to name the cause which was government policies and not the victims of the policies.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:14:10

than is that (auto correct)

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:47:35

PS. However, I do not think Volcker deserves the blame for doing what had to be done to prevent Weimer type inflation which would have destroyed the entire middle class in a matter of a year.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 14:15:32

PS. However, I do not think Volcker deserves the blame for doing what had to be done to prevent Weimer type inflation which would have destroyed the entire middle class in a matter of a year.

I read that it was the supply siders like Jack Kemp who were vehemently against Volker’s policies at that time.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 14:22:07

Anybody farming approx. 500 acres or less is doing it in conjunction with a full time job somewhere else.

AKA “the gentleman farmer”

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 14:24:22

Also noticed that Name should be Blame.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 14:50:29

“I read that it was the supply siders like Jack Kemp who were vehemently against Volker’s policies at that time”

Some thought that it would be better to have lower interest rates since that would allow more investment which would defeat inflation by more production. However, I think that it was too late for that the inflationary spiral was already out of control. Whether inflation could have been defeated without the drastic action I guess is somewhat open to debate but there is not question that the tough medicine did work and a boom developed with 7 to 8% growth during many quarters.

 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 15:01:16

we haven’t had a hawk in many years. a true hawk would have a free market in money,

We are discussing Fed Chairmen. Then by your definition we’ve never, ever had a “hawk” because we’ve never had a “free market in money” in the history of the Fed.

(Hint: It helps to think things out within the confines of the reality we live in.)

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 06:06:03

“Why buy a house today at these grossly inflated asking prices? Rent for half the monthly cost of buying. Buy later, after prices crater for 65% less.”

No question prices will roll back to early 1990’s levels.

If you bought a house in the last 13 years, your losses are tremendous.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 15:37:00

Nov. 17, 2013, 7:35 a.m. EST
5 states where homeowners lost the most money
Home values plummeted by $100,000 in many areas
Stories You Might Like
Are the bulls really invincible?
Treasurys gain on Fed policy expectations
By AnnaMaria Andriotis

California Median property values fell $102,600

Three counties in California — Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino — lost more than $100,000 in median property values from the three-year recession period (2007 to 2009) through the three-year post-recession period (2010 to 2012). Trailing right behind them, Orange County lost a median of $99,300. Aggressive flippers (people who bought homes and sold them quickly for a profit) and high demand among buyers helped create the bubble in this state. Once unemployment spiked, many buyers weren’t able to hold on to their homes and went into foreclosure.

Recently, home prices in many hard-hit areas have been picking up. Homes in Los Angeles County, for instance, gained 29% from the beginning of last year through October 2013, says Steve Dutra, senior vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a real estate research firm that’s headquartered in Irvine, Calif. In the Riverside-San Bernardino metro area, prices rose 42% over the same period.

But prices still have a way to go before they can return to the pre-downturn bubble levels. Home values would need to rise another 26% in Los Angeles County and another 53% in Riverside-San Bernardino in order to reach their 2006 peak, says Dutra. “We don’t foresee that happening in the next five years,” he says.

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-11-18 06:23:58

Yellen is the new chairman of the banking cartel. New boss same as the old boss.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 06:28:23

Any boss= your loss already built in.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:30:16

chairmen make decisions. her’s will be terrible. we’ll just have to wait to see if i’m right..

Comment by jose canusi
2013-11-18 06:44:51

Yeh, you never know. Give the old girl a chance. I mean, I don’t think she could be any worse than Al and Ben.

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:50:21

what if she wanted even more QE?

what if she never even thought of ‘tapering’?

she could be worse. and i think she will be..

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by azdude02
2013-11-18 06:53:33

do rising asset prices such as stocks and homes create jobs?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 06:55:32

of course not.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:10:55

But it sure creates massive distortions and misallocations.

Make no mistake in your mind….. those distortions and misallocations will reverse and will be extremely painful for the indebted.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 07:21:08

“of course not.”

The argument can be made (and has been made) that as asset prices of stocks and homes rise those who own these things become richer and because they are richer their spending ramps up.

Jump up the price of a house and you will at the same time jump up the amount of equity that is in the house. Convince the homebuyer to cash out and spend this equity and - presto! - you have money once again flowing into the economy. Something similar happens when you pump up the prices of stocks.

Not saying this is a wonderful way to run things, just pointing out that this is the thinking.

At the other end of the argument: Destroy prices and you destroy money that was associated with the destroyed prices, and people who have their money destroyed are not going to be spending much money.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:24:23

Well it gets down to this fundamental….

a) A country of solvent, prudent savers

b) A country of indebted, reckless, insolvent debt junkies

Spare us of the debt-junkie explanations and distractions.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:27:23

But it sure creates massive distortions and misallocations.

yes, but the keynesians believe that price inflation helps an economy. it doesn’t. price inflation weakens an economy.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:29:21

PS the ‘philips curve’ (or ‘curse’) has been debunked for over 20 years.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:30:09

It’s worse than that TJ. Offshore proxies using digital dollars to create demand where it doesn’t exist isn’t price inflation. It’s price fixing.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 07:42:56

The argument can be made (and has been made) that as asset prices of stocks and homes rise those who own these things become richer and because they are richer their spending ramps up.

it’s a dumb argument. the rise and fall of stock prices is money supply neutral. it makes no difference in the wealth of a nation. the same thing goes for homes. you have to look at both sides of the equation.

Jump up the price of a house and you will at the same time jump up the amount of equity that is in the house.

even if that were true, it doesn’t change overall wealth.

Convince the homebuyer to cash out and spend this equity and - presto! - you have money once again flowing into the economy. Something similar happens when you pump up the prices of stocks.

it doesn’t change the amount of dollars in the economy.

Destroy prices and you destroy money that was associated with the destroyed prices,

lower prices don’t ‘destroy’ dollars. far from it.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 07:52:28

“it doesn’t change the amount of dollars in the eonomy.”

If dollars are borrowed into existence and this borrowing increases then the amount of dollars that are put into the economy also increases.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 07:57:05

I am assuming, in this case, that the dollars will be spent.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 08:09:58

If dollars are borrowed into existence and this borrowing increases then the amount of dollars that are put into the economy also increases.

you didn’t talk about dollars being borrowed into existence. you implied that when homeowners sell a house for a profit, that money is created. it isn’t, at least most of the time. only the FED through the treasury creates dollars. most of the loan money comes from depositors. to imply that new money is always created from home loans is wrong.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 08:12:35

I am assuming, in this case, that the dollars will be spent.

spending doesn’t create dollars or wealth.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2013-11-18 08:27:16

I never said anything about homeowners selling a house for a profit, I was talking about homeowners cashing out the equity gained by the home due to the home’s price rise.

Cashing out equity is another term for borrowing against equity, and borrowing against equity or borrowing against anything else puts money into the economy if the borrowed money ends up being spent.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 08:36:53

Cashing out equity is another term for borrowing against equity, and borrowing against equity or borrowing against anything else puts money into the economy

if that were true, base money would be through the roof. you only need to look at base money compared to total loans over the same period to see that it can’t be true.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 08:42:28

“The argument can be made (and has been made) that as asset prices of stocks and homes rise those who own these things become richer and because they are richer their spending ramps up.”

The super rich are dumping their wealth into things like old art (and not so old art) how does that help the economy. Meanwhile the printing of money is keeping the things that ordinary people buy from falling in price thereby keeping them from spending money on manufactured goods. I do not see how this really pumps up the economy. Gasoline at around 1.70 where it was when Obama took over would be much more helpful.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 08:48:19

Dan, your conclusion is correct, but our dollars are not losing value for the reason you think.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 09:07:41

I think we need to pay attention to what the super rich are doing. They are putting their investments into a “goods” that can easily be moved out of this country. They are not presently putting into gold since they are politically well connected and know it is being manipulated. Additionally, 100 million dollar paintings are much easier to get out of the country than 100 million dollars worth of gold. They are not, anymore, dumping money into real estate because they realize the obvious, your renter has to have a sufficient income stream to pay the rent and if you cannot raise the rent, it is very difficult to get the property to rise in value.

The message they are sending is very negative on the US. Warren Buffett attacks on gold and other similar assets is that they do not generate an income, neither do works of art. Thus, the rich are saying that it no longer makes sense to invest in plant and equipment in the US and put your money into items that can easily be moved outside the country.

 
Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 09:09:20

Selling a house for profit and cashing out for a Refi amount to the same thing. Either way, a bank creates money to lend to someone, either the house owner/refi-er, or the house buyer.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 09:15:21

Houses don’t “sell for a profit”.

This will become painfully evident to you.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 09:26:17

Additionally, 100 million dollar paintings are much easier to get out of the country than 100 million dollars worth of gold.

yes, and they are going to get a nasty surprise when the economy tumbles. they aren’t as smart as they think they are. when things go bad their paintings will tumble in price.

The message they are sending is very negative on the US. Warren Buffett attacks on gold and other similar assets is that they do not generate an income, neither do works of art. Thus, the rich are saying that it no longer makes sense to invest in plant and equipment in the US and put your money into items that can easily be moved outside the country.

i’d be very wary of investing in plants and equipment now too. and art will prove to be a very risky investment when times get bad.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 09:29:12

An excerpt from a Ron Paul commentary that can be found on Goldseek.com:

By manipulating the money supply and the interest rate, Federal Reserve polices create inflation and thereby erode the value of the currency. Since the Federal Reserve opened its doors one hundred years ago, the dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power —that’s right, today you need $23.70 to buy what one dollar bought in 1913!

As pointed out by the economists of the Austrian School, the creation of new money does not impact everyone equally. The well-connected benefit from inflation, as they receive the newly-created money first, before general price increases have spread through the economy. It is obvious, then, that middle- and working-class Americans are hardest hit by the rising level of prices.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 09:55:38

Oxymath:

“Selling a house for profit and cashing out for a Refi amount to the same thing.”

Selling something for cash and borrowing are not the same thing at all. Not in my world.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 09:58:28

i’m not denying that the dollar has lost value.

but the distinction of how dollars get created has to be made. there’s a good way and a zimbabwe way.

also ron paul doesn’t cover all the dynamics of currency value. i don’t think he even knows them. plus, both he and schiff thinks our money gets created the zimbabwe way. it throws off their whole understanding of how price inflation happens.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 10:12:10

I think creating the money the federal reserve way as opposed to the Zimbabwe is the not the difference between good and bad, it is the difference between immediate harm and delayed harm. I do think that Ron Paul understands it but I don’t think the difference of a few years means anything to him.

Instead of throwing gasoline on fire we are pouring gasoline around and just waiting for a spark to ignite it. It is kind of like in the book Red Storm Rising where the Islamic terrorists just severed the pipes in the refinery and just expected something to set off the fire.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 10:31:31

I think creating the money the federal reserve way as opposed to the Zimbabwe is the not the difference between good and bad, it is the difference between immediate harm and delayed harm.

i’m saying that the official way the FED creates money is good, but i’m definitely not saying that the FED has been doing good things. i question if QE is really legal. if it is, it shouldn’t be. that said, if the FED stuck to creating money the correct way, there would be no harm to the dollar or the economy by the FED. the harm is coming in another way.

I do think that Ron Paul understands it but I don’t think the difference of a few years means anything to him.

i like ron paul. the only bad thing about him is he thinks we create dollars the zimbabwe way, same as schiff. they both need to think harder.

Instead of throwing gasoline on fire we are pouring gasoline around and just waiting for a spark to ignite it.

i think gasoline might be the wrong analogy. it’s more like we’re suffocating the dollar, rather than setting it on fire.

 
Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 10:33:28

Blue, I was answering Combo and tj’s assertion that doing a cash-out refi creates money but selling a house for profit does not create money. I was pointing out that BOTH created money, simply for different sides of the transaction.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 12:19:16

The gasoline analogy is about setting off inflation. I do not think the dollar will ignite, it will just drop in real value.

 
Comment by cactus
2013-11-18 12:24:07

“it doesn’t change the amount of dollars in the eonomy.”

If dollars are borrowed into existence and this borrowing increases then the amount of dollars that are put into the economy also increases.”

Yes money is borrowed into existence. House price goes up and money supply goes up if houses are used for collateral and loans are taken out.

The price of stuff going down through Deflation will decrease the money supply. loans won’t get paid back wealth is destroyed.

The price of stuff going down through greater productivity will increase the money supply? Your dollar will go farther at least.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 12:28:18

The gasoline analogy is about setting off inflation. I do not think the dollar will ignite, it will just drop in real value.

i know. and it will. all i’m saying is that it’s not because of ‘money printing’. do you know that gold can be printed and has been printed?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 12:33:11

The price of stuff going down through Deflation will decrease the money supply.

there are several definitions of ‘money supply’. the dollars in existence won’t be decreased.

The price of stuff going down through greater productivity will increase the money supply?

no. prices have no effect on dollars in existence.

Your dollar will go farther at least.

that’s price deflation.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:45:19

the dollars in existence won’t be decreased.

Yes they will

prices have no effect on dollars in existence.

Prices will affect dollars in existance

that’s price deflation

No because there will be less dollars.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 16:16:24

i’d love to address your other sophomoric drivel. but i wouldn’t want to distract you from this. i’ll bet you don’t have the guts to debate me on it either..

tj: “the dollars in existence won’t be decreased.”

comrade closer: “Yes they will

ok comrade, please explain how dollars in existence will be decreased.

notice that this is all i’m asking you to explain.

guess what closer. you won’t be able to do it. you’ll chicken out once again.

explain closer, how will dollars in existence be decreased??

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:26:28

explain closer, how will dollars in existence be decreased??

The beauty is that I don’t have to because…I’m “arguing” tj style. Can’t you see I was doing a tj parody?

I’ll explain:
Arguing tj style is just to rebut things with mindless, tit-for-tat stuff like.
“yes it is” “no it isn’t” “the free market would do it better” “uh huh”

Then ya just have to throw in a few names or gross stuff when you get frustrated.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 16:46:54

The beauty is that I don’t have to because…

the real beauty is that you’ve proved you don’t know what you’re talking about. i knew you wouldn’t try to take me on.

basically you’ve just admitted i’m right by refusing to back up your flapping keyboard, comrade.

poor comrade man-goo. you just admitted dollars in existence aren’t decreased by price deflation. you just admitted you spout off without thinking. you comrade man-goo, are a joke.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:01:47

you don’t know what you’re talking about.

yes I do

i knew you wouldn’t try to take me on.

newsflash: This is taking you on

basically you’ve just admitted i’m right

you are right (wingnut-nutball-faar right)

comrade man-goo.

you are gross or hungry

you just admitted you spout off without thinking.

no I didn’t

you comrade man-goo, are a joke.

i have brains to make funny jokes. arguing tj style is funny and you seem still hungry

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 19:31:09

The cross-dressing Lola of Brazil gets schooled again…..

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 19:42:55

cross-dressing Lola of Brazil

Where does this come from? Fear? Do you think your homophobic names will shut me up? Because “Commie” won’t?

It won’t work. Try dropping the N word on me bigot. It won’t work either.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 20:01:15

A victim crossdressing Lola at that!

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 20:14:43

Try dropping the N word on me bigot.

why should he?

so you can stomp your feet? so you can whine like a baby? please, we don’t want to hear that.

why do you think so many other people are bigots when you are the one that’s race baiting, comrade man-goo?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 20:19:07

A victim crossdressing Lola at that!

In your sick dreams I’m a victim, bigot.

I scare the cr@p out of you. Look at your now homophobic rhetoric. What’s next? Calling me the N word?

Toothless bigot.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 20:23:20

why do you think so many other people are bigots when you are the one that’s race baiting, comrade man-goo?

man-goo? You are hungry no?

look up the word bigot and get back to me. Bigot.

You can’t shut me up with your bigotry.

Straw, HA, tj and Adan, have shown classic signs of being bigots. I gave them the rope to hang themselves. Is anyone surprised with them?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 20:34:48

Pick yourself up off the floor Tranny. Cheer up. Man up.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 20:41:33

I scare the cr@p out of you.

you don’t scare him comrade. you don’t scare anyone.

What’s next? Calling me the N word?

why do you seem so hung up on ‘the N word’, comrade man-goo? do you have some kind of fixation on it?

look up the word bigot and get back to me. Bigot.

so you’ve got nothing, right comrade? just more race baiting from the racist.

You can’t shut me up with your bigotry.

what bigotry, comrade?

Straw, HA, tj and Adan, have shown classic signs of being bigots.

nothing but false accusations from a whining, race baiting, baby.

Is anyone surprised with them?

back to pandering again, eh comrade?

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:54:58

price inflation weakens an economy.

Another twilight zone theory because it does not deal with the reality of our financial structure. A small amount of inflation is needed for growth within the economic structure that we have in place.

This is the real world. Not some crackpot daydream.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 07:58:07

chairmen make decisions ??

i have read that volker didn’t want to raise rates, that he was forced into it ??

Contradictory don’t you think ?? You can’t have it both ways…

Volcker was not “forced” to do anything…He acted with reckless abandon as far I am concerned…

Comment by tj
2013-11-18 08:25:54

Contradictory don’t you think ?? You can’t have it both ways…

nothing contradictory. chairmen make decisions, but he was forced to raise rates. i’m going from memory as i know i wouldn’t be able to find the article again from years ago.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 09:39:23

but he was forced to raise rates ??

Forced or Choose and by how much & how fast ??

Under your theory I can then say Greenspan & Bernanke were “forced” to lower rates…

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 15:09:17

i know i wouldn’t be able to find the article again from years ago.

We know too. It’s OK. We know.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2013-11-18 06:43:08

Hitting a bank and a newspaper. Very symbolic, doncha think?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24985779

Ah, but the manhunt’s on for the lone gunman, yep, they’re all mobilized in a way that they can’t quite seem to pull off when their Middle Eastern population goes nuts and harms entire neighborhoods. That’s when they stand back from the “no-go” zones.

 
Comment by jose canusi
2013-11-18 06:58:15

I find the headline to this interesting. “The GED gets a makeover: Will it make for better workers?”

Workers. Not employees, workers. Will these “workers” be able to compete with Chinese and Mexican “workers”. It’s important to have “workers”, to support the wankers.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/education/july-dec13/ged_11-17.html

Comment by jane
2013-11-18 20:05:04

The same transubstantiation occurred when we turned “citizens” into “consumers”.

 
 
Comment by spook
2013-11-18 07:24:53

Its interesting no one answered my thought experiemnt from yesterday?

People “responded” but I got no help with the basic questions.

So here goes my answer. I would give them a price so rediculously expensive that it would basically function as a “no thanks”; then if they agreed, no one could challenge me for doing it.

Haven’t you guys ever done something like this before when you put something on Ebay? You don’t really want to sell something; but for a rediculous price you will do it?

Here is what I would charge them:

1. $500 billion cash

2. Free elections and Chinese troops out of Tibet

3. Removal of all nuclear weapons materials and technology from North Korea

4. No more vetos on the U.N security council

5. Confirmation by the Chinese landing of existing Apollo moon landing hardware on the moon

6. Some other things I think up that I want them to do.

7. Oh yeah, the 5000 hottest Chinese girls come to the U.S and out of those, the 10 hottest appear on my rap video.

I think Im done.

So my strategy is pretty cool right?

I figure, what ever it would cost them to REALLY go, Im gonna to at least QUADRUPLE the cost for a fake one.

Reasons why my idea is superior:

1. As president my administration looks sucessful dealing with China

2. We get mad coin.

3. The Chinese spend the money but don’t get the benefit of the experience which would make them smarter.

4. Finally put and end to the Apollo moon landings hoax nonsense for good!

5. Chinese rappers start dressing like me, acting like me, wearing my jersey… “MC spook numba whon!”

To sum up; even if the Chinese try to land on the moon and don’t make it, they are gonna learn a whole lot of “secrets” in the attempts. Including possibly the biggest one,

thats its not possible?

Then the shoe might be on the other foot?

Comment by jose canusi
2013-11-18 07:35:47

M-O-O-N, that spells urban myth.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:25:26

USA…. a nation of debt slaves.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 07:44:04

God’s gift.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:35:32

Whirlwind drive dust into Realtors’™ eyes.
Force them to recant their unending lies.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 07:52:58

It’s too bad this is so focused on racism and conspiracy theory types of issues. They manage to hit some very important points on why rural white men feel alienated. After all wouldn’t most people reasonably expect to inherit what their ancestors had? I would love to see them continue to drill toward root cause of why these guys are where they are rather than just looking down on them for the reactions of some of them to their situation…

http://www.salon.com/2013/11/17/americas_angriest_white_men_up_close_with_racism_rage_and_southern_supremacy/

Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 08:19:30

Nice post Carl…Interesting red…Thanks…

Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 08:21:39

red = read…

 
 
Comment by Steve J
2013-11-18 10:29:43

Never met a farmer yet who turns down farm subsidies.

Comment by Hi-Z
2013-11-18 13:56:46

It is simple; if a farmer turns down the subsidies, he goes out of business because “everybody is getting them” and he can’t compete.If ALL the subsidies were removed from all farming, farming would be just fine. Good profitable farmers would survive, poor ones would not. Kind of a simple concept called capitalism. Perhaps we should try it here in the USA.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 10:30:52

I would love to see them continue to drill toward root cause of why these guys are where they are rather than just looking down on them for the reactions of some of them to their situation…

IMO,the root cause is corporatism, offshoring and the America government not promoting and investing in sections of private industry that create production and good jobs.

A Lesson from Germany:
What Lies Behind Its Manufacturing Success

http://www.tradegood.com/en/insights/viewpoints/manufacturing-lessons-from-germany.html

One major factor for Germany’s success is a supportive government policy. Germany possesses a strong and well-developed mechanical-engineering industry with a solid tradition and foundation and enjoys a leading status in technology development, again with strong support from the government. Over the decades, the German government has invested heavily in boosting its production capability.

….Over the years, the German government has emphasized the long-term development of the manufacturing sector and invested a great deal of resources in research and development of innovative technologies, including renewable resources, environmentally friendly biotechnologies, and so on.

….Support from the German government also fosters its close cooperation with manufacturers and universities. With the unstinting support of government policy, manufacturers, universities and government research centers work closely in technology research and development, such as developing precision textile machinery for local and overseas factories. They also cooperate with machinery manufacturers, software developers and robotics companies on state-of-the-art technologies that make the whole manufacturing process more efficient and productive.

…Such close cooperation between the government, manufacturers and schools has produced a steady supply of skilled labor in the manufacturing sector. As the entire German economy depends greatly on skilled labor, a steady supply of skilled labor is of the utmost importance. Therefore, the government works to ensure that manufacturers have the access to well-trained technicians, engineers and skilled workers through the means of vocational training and technical apprenticeships.

…Germany is well known for its employee-friendly employment system, where workers are well paid, given a strong voice on labor issues, and enjoy comprehensive healthcare and good job security. Even at the height of the crisis, when waves of layoffs swept across Eurozone countries, there were few layoffs in Germany. Since workers enjoy good job security, it is easier for the country to introduce new and more efficient technologies as most of the workers are willing to embrace new technologies and see them as ensuring the long-term viability of their jobs. In the meantime, job security reduces the employee turnover rate, which is the main reason why German employers are happy to invest heavily in the employee training that is conducive to the long-term development of the whole sector.

To conclude, the secret to Germany’s manufacturing success lies in the country’s commitment to the sector. Its all-round efforts to drive growth have also enabled its economy to perform in a very solid fashion. Some see the resilience of Germany in the European debt crisis as a miracle. Even US president Barack Obama said Americans can learn from Germany’s success, which has made it the envy of many of its counterparts.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 12:20:20

Get back to us when Brazil can even manage 4% growth again.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 12:32:10

And that is yoy.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 12:36:09

Get back to us when Brazil can

I’ll get back to:

…One major factor for Germany’s success is a supportive government policy.

…the German government has emphasized the long-term development of the manufacturing sector and invested a great deal of resources

…Support from the German government also fosters its close cooperation with manufacturers and universities.

…Germany is well known for its employee-friendly employment system, where workers are well paid, given a strong voice on labor issues, and enjoy comprehensive healthcare and good job security.

…Such close cooperation between the government, manufacturers and schools has produced a steady supply of skilled labor

…To conclude, the secret to Germany’s manufacturing success lies in the country’s (governmental) commitment to the sector. Its all-round efforts to drive growth have also enabled its economy to perform in a very solid fashion.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 13:05:26

Get back to us when Brazil can

And what could you possibly have against Brazil? You don’t like the people? Or you root against 200,000 Brazilians because you don’t like me? That’s a little weird isn’t it?

I’m not even Brazilian. But I root for them.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 13:12:43

To conclude, the secret to Germany’s manufacturing success lies in the country’s (governmental) commitment to the sector.

loose lips sink ships, and busy lips don’t build them. AKA, talk is cheap, comrade.

the only commitment germany needs to the sector is to leave it alone.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 13:20:53

To conclude, the secret to Germany’s manufacturing success lies in the country’s (government) commitment to the sector.

Exactly. And there’s more.

What can the U.S. learn from a high-wage export powerhouse like Germany?

http://americanmanufacturing.org/blog/what-can-us-learn-high-wage-export-powerhouse-germany

Alliance for American Manufacturing (AAM) executive director Scott Paul recently suggested some similar policies during testimony before a Congressional Joint Economic Committee Hearing entitled “Manufacturing in the USA: Why We Need a National Manufacturing Strategy?” Specifically, Paul urged access to credit for manufacturing expansion and innovation. He also cited Germany’s integrated strategy for boosting manufacturing by focusing on skills, technology, investment, demand-side incentives, and labor-business-government collaboration.

These proposals help to form the basis of a national manufacturing strategy, something AAM has continually proposed.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:21:15

Germany moved more to the free market under the Christian Democrats and reformed many of the areas cited by Rio as creating the wealth. That is why it has weathered the world wide recession so well. It was choking on too much socialism just prior to that move. But in the end, Germany’s success is primarily caused by the fact that it is a country filled with Germans. It can afford to be a very mixed economy because of the high IQ and high skill of its work force.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 13:31:50

Lack of national policy hobbles U.S. manufacturing: study

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/27/us-usa-economy-manufacturing-idUSTRE81Q1EU20120227

(Reuters) - Lack of a public policy on manufacturing is the main obstacle to a vibrant factory sector in the United States, according to a study which also dismissed the notion that high wages are frustrating growth.

…these efforts could fall flat without a framework similar to that in countries like Germany and Canada where factory job losses have been minimal.

…(USA) let manufacturing shed jobs and we let offshoring happen to a much greater degree than almost any other advanced country.”

….”Germany’s manufacturing success is not accidental; public policy has played an important role,” said the study.

It noted that the federal government in Germany has facilitated rich networks for research and development, and workers and employers benefit from a system of continuous vocational training.

Firms also enjoy stable access to finance, the study said.

“Sturdy worker protections ensure that instead of solving problems through short-run cost-cutting, German employers and unions work together to adopt high-road solutions that strengthen firm competitiveness in the long term,” it said.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:39:49

From Wikipedia:

Schröder, in March 2003, reversed his position and proposed a significant downsizing of the welfare state, known as Agenda 2010. He had enough support to overcome opposition from the trade unions and the SPD’s left wing. Agenda 2010 had five goals: tax cuts; labor market deregulation, especially relaxing rules protecting workers from dismissal and setting up Hartz concept job training; modernizing the welfare state by reducing entitlements; decreasing bureaucratic obstacles for small businesses; and providing new low-interest loans to local governments.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:57:31

Sounds a lot like Reaganomics.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 14:06:02

What can the U.S. learn from a high-wage export powerhouse like Germany?

Abolish minimum wage?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:11:09

Germany moved more to the free market under the Christian Democrats and reformed many of the areas cited by Rio as creating the wealth.

No Your wiki article barely addressed hardly any of the numerous points in the tradegood article on German/Government manufacturing cooperation. Do the math.

You are trying to BS people.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 14:13:12

Specifically, Paul urged access to credit for manufacturing expansion and innovation. He also cited Germany’s integrated strategy for boosting manufacturing by focusing on skills, technology, investment, demand-side incentives, and labor-business-government collaboration.

yes, more keynesian crap that cripples economies. what brilliant idiots they are, comrade.

Lack of a public policy on manufacturing is the main obstacle to a vibrant factory sector in the United States,

exactly what public policy are they talking about comrade?

It noted that the federal government in Germany has facilitated rich networks for research and development,

all of which could be done better in the private sector, comrade.

‘rich networks’ indeed. sounds like stalin’s programs or maybe mussolini.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:14:17

Reaganomics.

Reagan had it much easier than now. Americans were younger and it was before “mass globalization” NAFTA/ GATT on steroids and offshoring.

We had more higher paying union jobs, less illegals and a jobs base on which America could rebound.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 14:18:44

all of which could be done better in the private sector,

Right. Let’s deal in facts. Not twilight zone economic “theories”.

Fact: Germany has much greater government/manufacturing cooperation than the USA.

Fact: Germany kicks the cr@p out of the USA in export manufacturing/GDP.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 14:19:32

Sounds a lot like Reaganomics.

Except for the socialized healthcare, pensions, near free college, generous paid time off, etc.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 14:28:00

Reagan had it much easier than now.

yes, socialism was much less entrenched then comrade.

Germany has much greater government/manufacturing cooperation than the USA.

i see you’re for fascism, comrade. which are you.. fascist or socialist? only comrade man-goo knows for sure.

Germany kicks the cr@p out of the USA in export manufacturing/GDP.

haven’t you heard comrade? we’re becoming more socialistic than europe.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 14:34:00

Fact: Germany has a higher percentage of Germans than the US and that is why they are kicking the crap out of us. And Colorado, it is the changes that sounded like Reaganomics not everything about Germany. A higher productivity people can be paid more and have more benefits. When California had more taxpayers and fewer people on the dole it had “near free college” and higher wages compared to the rest of the US without higher costs.

We are paying the price for immigration policies that increase diversity as opposed to increasing the number of highly intelligent and highly educated people. Import German scientists and you land on the moon, import gang bangers and you land on your azz as a country.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:00:33

The only thing I want to clarify that it was both the right wing of the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats that made the transformation of Germany possible. I do not address the trade good article because it attempts to rewrite history and ignores that the key reforms were exactly what was done by Thatcher and Reagan, the last real conservatives to hold power in either Great Britain or the United States. They believed in nationalism and wanted to restore their respective countries to greatness. Since then the people have come to power only want to preserve their power and to move the world to one government. Since this is not in the interest of workers in high wage economies, we continue to see the erosion of wages, it should not surprise people.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 15:07:39

i see you’re for fascism, comrade. which are you.. fascist or socialist?

This is another proof that you do not think consistently.

Proof?
You just asked me “which are you.. fascist or socialist? which proves that in your mind there is a big difference between a fascist and a socialist. (Which of course there is)

But every chance you get, you feebly try to promulgate the right-wing propaganda lie that Nazi fascism was “socialism”.

Which is it? I don’t think young tj even knows.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:16:14

And what could you possibly have against Brazil? You don’t like the people? Or you root against 200,000 Brazilians because you don’t like me? That’s a little weird isn’t it?

I am not rooting against Brazil but you have bragged about how the socialistic policies adopted in say the last ten years have helped the economy, I said when the economy was booming that they would bring down the economy. So far I am right so before advocating socialistic policies for the United States show me how Brazil is booming with it socialistic policies. With its low wages it should be booming, even India has 5% growth and everyone is calling it a basket case.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-11-18 15:26:37

Those Hartz reforms created a new class of German lucky duckies. It’s really not that clever. You reduce the pay and benefits of your workers and you can export more.

Low-Paid Workers Struggle Despite Germany’s Booming Economy

Study Finds Alarming Increase in Urban Poverty Across Germany

Report Cites Rise in Low Wage Workers Dependent on Welfare Benefits

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 15:28:21

have bragged about how the socialistic policies adopted in say the last ten years have helped the economy,

35 million have come out of poverty in those years but most of that was from policies that created higher paying jobs. I don’t know how “socialistic” that is.

“Socialistic policies would bring down the economy. So far I am right

You are not right at all. Brazil’s 2003-13 mean growth rate is a bit under 4% while USA’s is under 2%. That’s a decade. Brazil posted 3.3% growth last 2nd quarter.

so before advocating socialistic policies for the United States show me how Brazil is booming with it socialistic policies.

I just did. But you like many here don’t even know what “socialistic” means. You pray for Brazil to fail because I point out your statistical BS imo. Which is weird.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 16:13:48

Sorry pathetic growth for a developing nation and wages are not even keeping up with inflation:

http://www.businessinsider.com/whats-the-matter-with-brazil-2013-7

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:13:49

Germany has a higher percentage of Germans than the US and that is why they are kicking the crap out of us

No way at all. That’s a veiled racially charged myth. USA was the world’s manufacturing powerhouse for decades and it was not because of the American Germans.

We are paying the price for immigration policies that increase diversity as opposed to increasing the number of highly intelligent and highly educated people.

I agree we are “importing” a lot of uneducated people. But your math does not add up in that statement in regard to German vs American manufacturing. America has a greater number of educated people than Germany however it it Germany’s government/manufacturing policies that gives them the real edge. We are competing with countries that have national manufacturing programs which enables them to compete as countries and not just individual companies.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 16:18:23

But after growing 7.5% in 2010, Brazil’s economy grew just 0.9% in 2012. Q1 wasn’t much better, with GDP rising 0.6% from the previous quarter.

At 6.5%, inflation is high and hurting real wages. Which explains why consumption grew just 0.1% in Q1. Meanwhile, the Bovespa is down nearly 28% year-to-date.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/whats-the-matter-with-brazil-2013-7#ixzz2l2fSo44W

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:20:15

With its low wages (Brazil) should be booming,

The wages are not that low in Brazil, but what really holds Brazil back (unlike much of USA) is too much government mindless regulation, wayyyy too much bureaucracy, corruption and a tax system that is totally messed up.

And yes I can see the vast difference in these subjects’ levels between the USA and Brazil.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 16:28:11

“But every chance you get, you feebly try to promulgate the right-wing propaganda lie that Nazi fascism was “socialism”.”

It was national socialism and only varied from the Soviet Union in that the Soviet Union wanted international socialism. The government owned or controlled the means of production in both countries. They both rejected the invisible hand controlling economic decisions. The NYT actually was highly complementary of Italy which was fascist before Germany and what Obama is creating is the Fascist model of socialism where government controls everything even if it might not own it. Italy created a system where government, unions and businesses would all follow a common policy. The ACA model is very close to the Mussolini model of setting policy.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:29:48

Sorry pathetic growth for a developing nation and wages are not even keeping up with inflation:

There you go again. You don’t get broad trends and math. You look to statistical noise and I look to decades long trends, patterns and flow.

Fact:
Since 1988, my first time to Brazil, Brazil has gotten a lot better and USA has gotten a lot worse, all of your shot term noise aside.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:33:06

It was (Nazi) national socialism and only varied from the Soviet Union in that the Soviet Union wanted international socialism.

Good Lord. I don’t even have to respond. Please continue with your “history” “lesson”.

(I’ll make some popcorn.)

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 16:33:15

But every chance you get, you feebly try to promulgate the right-wing propaganda lie that Nazi fascism was “socialism”.

anyone with two brain cells to rub together can see that fascism and socialism are both big government. they are kissin’ cousins.

are you going to explain how dollars in existence are decreased? na, you’re bluffing or lying again. you can’t explain it because it doesn’t happen. that means you’re an idiot or a liar comrade. which is it? i think it’s that you’re a liar. you’ll never expain it.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 16:34:00

From wilipedia and it is you that would like to re-write history:

The party emerged from the German nationalist, racist and populist Freikorps paramilitary culture, which fought against the communist uprisings in post-World War I Germany.[7] Advocacy of a form of socialism by right-wing figures and movements in Germany became common during and after World War I, influencing Nazism.[8] Arthur Moeller van den Bruck of the Conservative Revolutionary movement coined the term “Third Reich”,[9] and advocated an ideology combining the nationalism of the right and the socialism of the left.[10] Prominent Conservative Revolutionary member Oswald Spengler’s conception of a “Prussian Socialism” influenced the Nazis.[11] The party was created as a means to draw workers away from communism and into völkisch nationalism.[12] Initially, Nazi political strategy focused on anti-big business, anti-bourgeois, and anti-capitalist rhetoric, although such aspects were later downplayed in order to gain the support of industrial entities, and in 1930s the party’s focus shifted to antisemitic and anti-Marxist themes.[

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:35:44

you can’t explain it because it doesn’t happen

Yes it does.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:43:33

they are kissin’ cousins.

No they’re not.

you’re bluffing or lying again.

I’m not but the free market can do it better.

means you’re an idiot or a liar comrade.

No I’m not Dr. GoTinkerbells .

you’ll never expain it.

You expain what “expain” is. I bet you can’t because you are lying or bluffing. Which is it Dr. GoTinkerbells?

anyone with two brain cells to rub together

How would you know? You fascist somethingOrAnother.

(I love arguing tj style. Takes no brains and it’s fun!)

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:45:39

The party was created as a means to draw workers away from communism and into völkisch nationalism.[12] Initially, Nazi political strategy focused on anti-big business, anti-bourgeois, and anti-capitalist rhetoric, although such aspects were later downplayed in order to gain the support of industrial entities, and in 1930s the party’s focus shifted to antisemitic and anti-Marxist themes.[

You just made my point.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 16:47:34

“The wages are not low in Brazil”

Who is talking BS, per capita income around 5700 dollars a year and the wages are not low?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp-per-capita

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 16:52:18

Brazil has a per capita income less than a third of the state of Mississippi and Rio a.k.a. Lola claims it does not have a low income. Now, who is talking the bs?

Mississippi Per Capita Income

The ACS survey shows the median per capita income for Mississippi was $20,119 in 2012. Compared to the US per capita income, Mississippi per capita income is $7,200 lower. Per capita income numbers for 2013 will be released in September of 2014.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 16:53:03

How would you know? You fascist somethingOrAnother.

you don’t know how to make an argument, do you comrade man-goo?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 17:02:32

I love arguing tj style.

rise to the occasion comrade. prove you know what you’re talking about by explaining your position. show your superior knowledge.

debate me ‘rio style’ and win the debate with your skills and knowledge. do your worst comrade. i’m waiting.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:02:46

Who is talking BS, per capita income around 5700 dollars a year and the wages are not low?

Not relative to China where they make everything. Get out much?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 17:03:53

“You just made my point.”

No, you cannot take the quote out of context. It stated clearly that the party had policies combining socialism and nationalism as I stated. The fact that it later placed an emphasis on opposing soviet style Marxism does not change that fact. Its policies were very much government work policies after it came to power and it gained control over the entire economy. Nazism is exactly what is translates to National Socialism.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:05:21

Brazil has a per capita income less than a third of the state of Mississippi and Rio a.k.a. Lola claims it does not have a low income.

Brazil is not a low cost producer compared to where they make everything. Why are you comparing it to Mississippi? What do they make in Mississippi? You are making my point for me.

Your math is consistently bad. Bad. Compare Brazil wages with China and the other far east countries.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:06:21

you don’t know how to make an argument,

Yes I do.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:07:21

rise to the occasion comrade.

I just did

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:08:45

The fact that it later placed an emphasis on opposing soviet style Marxism does not change the fact that it opposed Communism to the point of WAR.

You made my point.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 17:14:31

Internationalist communism, you made my point that you do not know what you are talking about.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:15:47

you do not know what you are talking about.

yes i do

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 17:19:10

Brazil is not a low cost producer compared to where they make everything.

now there’s the typical comrade closer logic.

Why are you comparing it to Mississippi?

think real hard comrade. you might see his point… na, of course not! you don’t have the wattage.

Compare Brazil wages with China and the other far east countries.

there you go making Dan’s point, comrade.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 17:19:16

From the world bank:
Yet China remains a developing country and its market reforms are incomplete. In 2012, China’s gross national income per capita of $6,091 ranked 90th in the world; and about 128 million people still live below the national poverty line of RMB 2,300 per year (about $1.8 a day). With the second largest number of poor in the world after India, poverty reduction remains a fundamental challenge.

I know you are not good at math or facts of any kind but $6,091 is higher than $5700.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 17:30:10

you don’t know how to make an argument,

Yes I do.

then by all means, give it a try.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:30:36

now there’s the typical comrade closer logic.

Perfect logic.

na, of course not! you don’t have the wattage.

i only need to use half of it to drive you batty, the rest I save for others on this blog

there you go making Dan’s point

I “made Dan’s point” before he re-made my point while he was trying to rebut my point
(OK, I admit, that line just required 60% of my wattage)

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:43:38

I know you are not good at math or facts of any kind but $6,091 is higher than $5700.

FAIL. Give up dude. You’re not going to baffle me with your Bull S#it. You are citing gross national income per capita, I am taking wages. Heck, a lot of Chinese manufacturing is even slave and prison labor and you cite gross national income per capita?? Who do you think you are fooling? Are you really a propaganda tool? I’m taking wages.

Not counting slave labor: In US dollars:
China min wage: $2,472
Brazil min wage: $4,520 wiki

Cut that “min wage” China figure by the slave labor aspect and we’re talking that you’re telling a sick joke.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 17:44:37

then by all means, give it a try.

I did

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 18:06:06

I did.

comrade, do you understand the most fundamental rules of debate?

if you make an assertion that something happens, you have to back it up. simple as that.

no one has to back up something that doesn’t happen.

i told you that price deflation doesn’t decrease dollars in existence. that’s something that doesn’t happen. you claim it does. that’s something that does happen. therefore, you have to back up your claim.

but we know you never will. you’re just a commie hack. a know nothing commie hack.

you made an assertion that something happens comrade. it’s your responsibility to back it up.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 18:17:35

do you understand the most fundamental rules of debate?

I schooled u on them. u failed

if you make an assertion that something happens, you have to back it up

I did as u do

no one has to back up something that doesn’t happen.

yes they do

price deflation doesn’t decrease dollars in existence. that’s something that doesn’t happen.

prove it commie fascist Dr. GoTinkerBells

but we know you never will

I just did

you’re just a commie hack. a know nothing commie hack.

Impossible You are the commie, a huge commie. You are not only a commie but you are a nanny-fascist commie (very rare)
I am a Protestant and a Chiefs fan.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 18:42:08

prove it commie fascist Dr. GoTinkerBells

being called out as a commie bothers you, doesn’t it comrade? that’s because it’s true.

i don’t mind you calling me a commie at all. all anyone has to do is read your or my posts for the truth. i actually think it’s kinda funny comrade. please do keep calling me a commie. :)

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 18:52:34

being called out as a commie bothers you, doesn’t it comrade?

It does not bother me, but…It is strange for a student of history like me because it defies reality but …. it is kind of good actually. Because you calling me a commie serves a purpose to reach those in the intelligent center to show how far outside of reality people like you are.

So “Commie” on bro!

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 19:21:36

It does not bother me

sure it does. it’s evident in your posts. why lie about such a little thing?

Because you calling me a commie serves a purpose to reach those in the intelligent center to show how far outside of reality people like you are.

the intelligent center, comrade? yes, you are reaching.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 19:40:18

It does not bother me….sure it does.

If you think it bothers me then keep calling me a commie.

Then you’ll “win”

Here’s the deal. People call names to shut people up. But I’m the opposite. You call me names and I’m back at you more - if only to foil your juvenile plans. You won’t “win”.

You call me commie to “shut me up”. Good luck. You call me homophobic gross stuff like “man-goo” to shut me up? I’m not 12. It’s not going to work. Why don’t u drop the N word on me you obvious bigot? It won’t work either. Your names will not intimidate me.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 19:44:54

why lie about such a little thing?

That’s what LIEberals do best.

 
Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-11-18 19:46:50

Thanks to all for schooling Mango!

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 19:52:56

Thanks to all for schooling Mango!

Good try with nothing.

You can’t re-write history straw. Today is one of the classic days of me schooling your low IQ compadres.

Look at the vitriol at me, the names, the fluster, bluster and pathetic. That don’t happen unless you are totally schooling clowns.

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 20:02:17

You call me commie to “shut me up”

no comrade. you’re like a yapping chihuahua. i don’t think anything will shut you up.

i call you a commie because that’s what you are.

and man-goo is just a play on mango that you yourself instigated.

why would i call you the N word comrade? are you race baiting again? do you know that the most vile racists are the race baiters?

what have i said that makes me a ‘bigot’ my race baiting comrade? what post? where are the words? you’re just race baiting again i suppose.

as usual, when you have nothing you start making things up.. but keep going comrade. show what you really are.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 20:08:00

what have i said that makes me a ‘bigot’ my race baiting comrade?

Don’t play dumb. You are bigot. “Man-goo”? Seriously? How is that kind of crap different than the same mentality of a racist?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 20:10:25

ManGoo Tranny,

You seem to enjoy the slap down, smack around daily schooling….. but not as much as we enjoy delivering it to you. :mrgreen:

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 20:39:55

ManGoo Tranny,

“ManGoo Tranny”? That’s gross but….

Fine…..From your writing HA, I thing you might be a fat, 60 year ole white dude bigot living in cold rural New England, working boring construction, semi educated but underpaid who is in the closet and angry about it.. and dreams about trannys and mad that he does? And mad that I live in Rio because of it?

I won’t judge.

 
Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-11-18 20:40:01

I knew when I saw 300+ posts that the Mango had returned like a warm odorous wind from the south. Dan schooled you on Brazil’s subpar economy for a developing country. They both schooled you on history and logic! Nice comparison of Brazil to China. Really made your point.

First in Brazil in 88? I used to think you were 14, now I see it may be senescence and booze. Who are all these employees you claimed to have paid healthcare for?

Go back to defending your Savior In Chief who is at his record low approval rating.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 20:44:32

Nice comparison of Brazil to China. Really made your point.

I know. Especially because we were talking about manufacturing wages. Thank you.

 
Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-11-18 20:46:37

Her name is Lola, she was a Mango,
But that was 30 years ago, when they were more down low
Now it’s a webcam, but not for Lola,
Still in green shirt she used to wear,
Faded feathers in her hair
She sits there so refined,and drinks herself half-blind
She lost her youth and she lost her Money
Now she’s lost her mind

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 20:47:34

“Man-goo”? Seriously? How is that kind of crap different than the same mentality of a racist?

seriously comrade, how are they the same?

but do keep going comrade. show off what you really are.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 20:51:56

Now it’s a webcam, but not for Lola,
Still in green shirt she used to wear,
Faded feathers in her hair

Wow

I really did win

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 21:12:42

Your victim howling is reprehensible ManGoo Tranny.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 21:17:42

“Man-goo”? Seriously? How is that kind of crap different than the same mentality of a racist?

seriously comrade, how are they the same?

Don’t play dumb comrade:

1. bigot
One who is narrrowly or intolerantly devoted to his or her opinions and prejudices. This word is a general term that applies to everyone (racists, anti-Semites, misogynists, homophobes and xenophobes).

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=bigot

but do keep going comrade. show off what you really are.

I just did. Smarter than you can deal with.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 21:19:15

Your victim howling is reprehensible ManGoo Tranny.

Only because I pointed out that you are a bigot maybe?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 21:26:41

Don’t play dumb comrade:

i DON’T play dumb comrade, YOU play dumb comrade.

This word is a general term that applies to everyone

everyone? including commies comrade? of what use is it if it applies to everyone?

I just did. Smarter than you can deal with.

more like you’re dumber than anyone can deal with.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 21:28:56

i DON’T play dumb comrade, YOU play dumb comrade.

no, you do. i play smart

you’re dumber than anyone can deal with.

Than why can’t you, bigot?

 
Comment by tj
2013-11-18 21:47:50

i play smart

like you declare yourself the winner of debates, comrade man-goo?

Than why can’t you, bigot?

my bigot can. you my bigot.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 21:49:48

fail

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 07:56:55

Too the moon, Alice!

Stock market live blog: Battling for new highs

November 18, 2013, 9:19 AM
6:50 am

A few comments from the Twittersphere on Dow 16,000:

Dow tops 16000, S&P 500 moves over 1800 and the Nasdaq is less than 10 points away from 4000. #bignumbers #stocks
— Steven Russolillo (@srussolillo) November 18, 2013

The big numbers on indices act like magnets and should hold the S&P at near 1800 and Dow near 16000 in short term.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 10:18:40

“Too the moon, Alice!”

Practice what you preach.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 10:33:35

Nov. 18, 2013, 11:10 a.m. EST
Gold falls, set for first loss in three sessions
Stories You Might Like
Bernanke: Virtual currencies hold promise, risk
Australia stocks fall, with oil shares dragging
Bank-stocks fund hits highest level since crisis
By Myra P. Saefong and Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures on Monday edged lower, poised to log their first loss in three trading sessions as traders mulled when the Federal Reserve will start tapering its bond-buying program.

At last check, gold for December delivery (GCZ3 -1.16%) fell $6.10, or 0.5%, to $1,281.30 an ounce. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange after tallying a gain of 1.5% on Thursday and Friday. December silver (SIZ3 -1.89%) was down 13 cents, or 0.6%, at $20.595 an ounce.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 10:57:55

They cannot keep the manipulation going on much longer:
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/11/18/markets-india-gold-idINDEE9AH08H20131118

In the meantime, call options that I wrote on positions are expiring, life is good.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 07:58:11

Did somebody ring the “sell” bell at the moment the DJIA crossed 16,000 for the first time ever?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 07:58:38

….to quote one of the more prolific writers in HBB history;

“It doesn’t change that you paid too much, that you are going to get the short end and that you are in denial. The HBB isn’t required to be a warm fuzzy place for you.”

 
Comment by phony scandals
2013-11-18 08:01:25

So, how many SDRs will I need to buy a gallon of milk?

IMF calls for dollar alternative

By Ben Rooney, staff reporterFebruary 10, 2011: 4:37 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The International Monetary Fund issued a report Thursday on a possible replacement for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The IMF said Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, could help stabilize the global financial system.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, acknowledged there are some “technical hurdles” involved with SDRs, but he believes they could help correct global imbalances and shore up the global financial system.

“Over time, there may also be a role for the SDR to contribute to a more stable international monetary system,” he said.

The goal is to have a reserve asset for central banks that better reflects the global economy since the dollar is vulnerable to swings in the domestic economy and changes in U.S. policy.

The dollar alternatives

Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said at a conference in Washington that IMF member nations should agree to create $2 trillion worth of SDRs over the next few years.

SDRs, he said, “will further diversify the system.”

http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/ - 80k -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu18lMrFvoc - 127k - Cached - Similar pages
Nov 29, 2009 … George Soros openly discusses New World Order, Special Drawing Rights,

Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 09:58:07

The Euro Experiment is a giant failure. Let’s double down and make an international fiat currency, without an international government.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 12:42:16

What is sad is that is probably what they will do.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-11-18 08:07:07

From Arkansas:

‘Multiple reports in recent days outline lower down payment programs for qualified homebuyers looking for cheaper loans. Since 2009, buyers have needed to come to the table with as much as 20% down or they had to turn to the Federal Housing Administration for a low 3% to 5% down-payment loan.’

‘But recently, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and TD Bank have loosened the strings, offering loans with down payments that are as low as 5%.’

‘TD Bank’s “Right Step” mortgage, for example, allows borrowers to secure a loan with a 5% down payment. It also allows buyers to receive as much as 2% of the sale price as a gift from a relative or other third party, so they would really only need 3% down.’

‘While the private lenders that are offering the 5%-down loans are also requiring borrowers to buy private mortgage insurance, they are only requiring them to do so until they build up 20% equity in the home. FHA recently made the requirement mandatory for the life of the loan.’

‘The difference is worth noting. For instance, an FHA loan for $100,000 at a 30-year fixed rate of 4.4%, would incur nearly $30,000 in added costs with the 1.35% mandatory private insurance premium.’

‘Agents said access to low down payment loans are crucial to a healthy real estate market because many first time buyers turn to these lower down payment loans to help them get into that starter home.’

Note that nothing is said about what’s best for borrowers, or the ability to pay back the loans. No, ‘access to low down payment loans are crucial to a healthy real estate market.’ I wonder if there is an real estate church somewhere? If there are blood sacrifices to the God of Real Estate?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 08:12:07

“Agents said access to low down payment loans are crucial to a healthy real estate market .”

The DownLowJoe payments are merely making the collapse deeper and broader. Do these lying realtors have any idea what they’re saying?

Todays DownLowJoe payment mortgage is tomorrows default. We seen this over and over again.

For certain, todays sale at a grossly inflated price is tomorrows default.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 08:22:54

Today’s boom-time low-downpayment-mortgage financed homebuyer, tomorrow’s bust-time laid-off underwater foreclosure victim.

Lather, rinse, repeat…

Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 08:37:33

FWIW, when my folks were young they, and many of their peers, bought houses with low down FHA loans. Of course, the houses were affordable and the economy was much stronger. I was only a kid, but I don’t ever recall dinner table conversations about how Mr. Robinson down the street couldn’t find a job and that’s why the Robinson’s lost the house.

Now jobs vanish in the blink of an eye, and house values can drop 100K or more.

Comment by HBB_Rocks
2013-11-18 09:18:18

but I don’t ever recall dinner table conversations about how Mr. Robinson down the street couldn’t find a job and that’s why the Robinson’s lost the house.
——–
Half the country music songs from the ’50s to the ’70s are about the family losing the farm.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 09:37:02

But the layoff songs didn’t appear until the late 70’s.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 09:42:48

And we didn’t live on a farm, we lived in suburban Orange County and I never heard a country music song during that time (I did know who the Beach Boys were).

I do recall in the late 70’s some of my dad’s friends were furloughed and received an unemployment check for the first time in their lives. Of course, most were recalled to their old jobs after a few months.

 
Comment by HBB_Rocks
2013-11-18 10:53:21

That’s my point - that the pain of a contraction is not felt everywhere evenly. Doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. It just seems more acute now because it’s happening to people you know.

My relatives also live in Orange County - they talk about how Huntington Beach was tincan beach when they moved in - obviously the ’60s-’90s (and beyond-depends on if you were an owner or buyer beyond) have been the good times in that area.

And not to be pedantic, but what is losing a farm if it is not getting layed off?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 11:13:58

And not to be pedantic, but what is losing a farm if it is not getting layed off?

Emotionally, it’s more than losing a job, though. When land and the associated housing has been in your family for generations it’s much more than a job.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 11:26:50

songs from the ’50s to the ’70s are about the family losing the farm.

Here’s a good one from the 90’s. (Even if his harmonica has a blown reed)

Steve Earle - The Rain Came Down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vz0BrACfQyc

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 11:29:36

When land and the associated housing has been in your family for generations it’s much more than a job.

…Now my grandaddy died in the room he was born in
Twenty-three summers ago
But I could have sworn he was beside me this morning
When the sheriff showed up at my door
So don’t you come around here with your auctioneer man
’cause you can have the machines but you ain’t taking my land

The Rain Came Down - Steve Earle

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 11:46:12

Brazilian Tranny!

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 11:51:18

But I like Steve Earle. Although the last time I saw him was a few years ago at a Snowbird concert in Utah. Still think he should not have called Shania Twain the highest paid lap dancer in America but I do need to forgive.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-11-18 13:47:17

Were there any aerospace jobs in Orange Country in those days, Colorado? I have vague recollections of big layoffs in that industry in the early ’70s as Vietnam war was winding down.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 13:48:28

Shania did her part, but if you think you like Shania you actually like Mutt Lange. First time I heard the first few bars of one of her songs and was trying to figure out if it was Def Leppard or Bryan Adams or AC/DC. And then some chick started singing…

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:49:16

Plenty in B1 Bob’s district.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 13:53:14

Honestly, her music was just mediocre but she was so hot.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 14:16:54

Were there any aerospace jobs in Orange Country in those days, Colorado?

I lived there in the 60’s. So I’m sure there was some aerospace work. We moved away and came back to visit in the 70’s. I remember that my dad was pretty shocked to learn of his friends’ layoffs.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:41:31

Shania’s videos will stand the test of time. If only Miley could learn the difference between sexy and slutty.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-11-18 15:58:18

Well, the ’60s was a very a prosperoous decade. There was a pretty mild recession at the beginning of the decade and another mild one at the end of the decade. In between were nearly nine years of good economic growth and mostly low unemployment. Also, the economic growth in those days was pretty much evenly shared by all income groups, rich, poor and in-between.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 16:26:51

Shania’s videos will stand the test of time. If only Miley could learn the difference between sexy and slutty.

OK. I don’t think about the videos, but I see what you’re saying. And it’s not like she doesn’t have flaws but she’s a master at drawing the eye where she wants it to be.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 08:59:40

“Note that nothing was said about what’s best for borrowers, or the ability to pay back the loans.”

My favorite part.

“Are there blood sacrifices to the God of Real Estate?”

If there’s not there should be. But in the meantime, until such a God is discovered, I’ll play the part of a stand-in. But I am more interested in money rather than blood.

I’ll allow the debt slaves to keep their blood; They’ll need the blood so as they can keep their health, and they’ll need to keep their health if they are to deep on working, and they will need to keep on working if they are to pay to me the money that they owe.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 09:07:00

I’ll allow them to keep their blood up to a point. After the point is reached whereby their blood no longer keeps them working I will expect them to sell off their blood and send me the money.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 09:28:54

The efficient parasite doesn’t kill the host.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 09:33:50

The efficient slaveowner doesn’t own the slave; He sets it up whereby somebody else owns the slave and he ends up with whatever wealth the slave produces.

In the case of the debt slave the slave owns himself.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-11-18 10:11:42

As long as there are more registered voters who feel they are benefited by the current system than there are who feel screwed by it, the current system will continue.

The large underlying trend is that Wall Street and by extension the politicians they fund, are claiming larger and larger shares of consumer surplus, surplus that used to be left to the consumer. This is a large underlying social current. Once this reaches a tipping point, then there will be change.

The system is designed to corrupt politicians so that their interests are more aligned with their big contributors than with their constituents. This seems to have been going on for a long time as Mark Twain said that both babies’ diapers and politicians must be changed often and for the same reason.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 11:31:34

efficient parasite doesn’t kill the host.

Obviously American Corporatism is not efficient.

 
Comment by jane
2013-11-18 21:30:13

Neuro - respectfully, the voters don’t matter. The legislative model has been changed forever. They are all crooks, out to enrich themselves - period. They ought to at least be honest about it and stop the sham.

I propose each C-man and Rep henceforth wear sponsor T-shirts over their suit jackets, with masters’ logos prominently displayed. At least then we’d know what we’re dealing with, instead of this sub-threshold bleeding, with respect to our hopes.

Every single time, for the past generation.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2013-11-18 09:48:49

We’ll pray for you Mr. Banker.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 10:31:00

Prayers are nice but tithe to me while you are at it.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:56:30

You only want 10%, clearly you are not like Obama.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:58:42

It is interesting that God only wants 10%, but the US has asked for as much as 95%.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:03:06

but the US has asked for as much as 95% when America’s growth and equally shared prosperity were the envy of the world….

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-11-18 16:15:01

“You only want 10% …”

I never said that. What I want is 10% at a time. That’s what a tithe amounts to, which is 10% at a time.

Remember, the efficient parasite doesn’t kill the host.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 09:29:31

Looks like banks are getting desperate. Hedge funds paid cash, and J6P went to FHA for their mortgage needs. Neither needed a private bank, leaving the bank with no loans to sell to Fannie Mae and therefore no fees to collect. So now the banks are competing with FHA.

When I was househunting, we ran the numbers for an FHA mortgage. It turned out that putting 10% down for a conventional loan was cheaper than FHA. Over the life of the loan, the monthly FHA fees added up to more than the private PMI, and more than the down payment and associated opportunity costs. And that was while one of the fees ended with 20% equity. Now it will cost even more.

Homebuyers are paying dearly for not having an extra 6.5% in cash at the point of sale.

Comment by Neuromance
2013-11-18 09:58:04

Homebuyers are paying dearly for not having an extra 6.5% in cash at the point of sale.

And they wonder why the economy is stagnant. When people have less actual money, regardless of wealth effects or whatever other psychobabble, they spend less.

The PTB rely on the psychobabble wealth effect because their policies undermine the building of actual wealth.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 10:25:07

“FHA recently made the requirement mandatory for the life of the loan.”

With an FHA loan, are they requiring PMI or are they charging their own mortgage insurance fee and self (lol) insuring?

If the banks are offering PMI ends at 20% equity, how are they able to offload these mortgages to the FHA?

Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 10:51:11

IIRC, PMI has traditionally stopped at 20% equity. They figure that once the buyer pays in 20% in, then he will be able to pay the rest. (back in the days when salaries increase but PITI did not.) Or, if the house is foreclosed, the bank can always fetch 80% of the mortgage amount and not lose money on the house. Of course if the buyer put 20% down there was no PMI at all. These are seasonsed loans and probably very desireable on the secondary market.

FHA had two monthly fees. One was the FHA version of PMI, the other was the usage fee for FHA. The usage fee was the life of the loan, the PMI version stopped at 20% equity. Evidently now they are extending PMI for the whole loan — likely they need to suck more money out of the responsible to backfill FHA’s losses. Bad news.

Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 11:02:13

I am asking if FHA’s mortgage insurance is third party PMI or their own brand.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 15:59:19

sorry… far as I know, it’s their own FHA brand. Which would explain why they need to hike the fees to insure themselves.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 19:21:48

yes it would.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2013-11-18 08:20:30

By Ben Rooney, staff reporterMarch 31, 2011: 9:39 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner once again criticized China for keeping its currency artificially low. But he also extended an olive branch that could allow China’s yuan to become even more influential in global trade.

Geithner added that the United States would support changing the composition of a key basket of international currencies created and managed by the International Monetary Fund known as Special Drawing Rights.

The SDR represents potential claims on the currencies of IMF members and can be converted into whatever currency a borrower requires.

While not a tangible currency, some economists argue that SDRs could be used as a less volatile alternative to the U.S. dollar as a global reserve asset.

Geithner suggested that the SDR basket could be altered to include currencies from emerging economies, such as China.

“Over time, we believe that currencies of large economies heavily used in international trade and financial transactions should become part of the SDR basket,” he said.

However, inclusion in the SDR basket would come with conditions, according to Geithner.

“To achieve this objective, the concerned countries should have flexible exchange rate systems, independent central banks, and permit the free movement of capital flows,’ he said.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/31/news/international/geithner_g20_china/ - 85k - Cached - Similar pages
Mar 31, 2011

Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-11-18 11:30:02

Geither just signed on with a big PE company (Warburg Pincus). LOL. He’s long, long gone and now being paid the big $$$.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 11:44:46

Liberace!

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 08:21:18

“Most Americans don’t trust real estate agents, poll finds”

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-most-distrust-real-estate-agents-20131113,0,7049086.story

Why would they when millions of people got suckered into paying massively inflated prices for rapidly depreciating houses over the last 13 years.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 08:22:22

San Diego County median home price down $9K in a Single Month

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/nov/12/dataquick-real-estate-housing-mortgage-value/

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 08:25:02

Nov. 18, 2013, 10:19 a.m. EST
Home-builder confidence falls short of forecasts
By Ruth Mantell, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A gauge of home-builder confidence paused this month, as sales expectations for single-family homes slightly declined, according to a report released Monday.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing-market index was 54 in November, matching a downwardly revised reading for October, which was the lowest in four months.

Results above 50 signal that builders, generally, are optimistic about sales trends.

“The fact that builder confidence remains above 50 is an encouraging sign, considering the unresolved debt and federal budget issues cause builders and consumers to remain on the sideline,” said David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 08:27:40

Nov. 18, 2013, 9:39 a.m. EST
5 reasons to expect a correction
Commentary: We don’t have to have a crash to see some downside
By Jeff Reeves

The market continues to truck higher and the S&P 500 is now sitting on roughly 26% in profits year-to-date.

But don’t expect it to last.

For many reasons, the market appears ripe for a correction. Not a crash, mind you, as the permabears and the bunker crowd would love to see, just a 10% to 15% dip in the broader indexes to allow reality to catch up with Wall Street.

You see, the face-ripping rally for many stocks in 2013 has been based almost wholly on sentiment. And while optimism goes a long way in capital markets, stock prices can only defy gravity so long before reality beats back unrealistic expectations.

Here are five reasons I expect a double-digit correction in the S&P 500 sometime in the next six months:

Main Street gets bullish

Stock-based mutual funds have sucked up more cash in 2013 than any year since 2004 — $76 billion, to be exact, vs. total outflows of $451 billion from 2006 to 2012.

If you want to be a fatalist, the fact that the “dumb money” is returning to the market is the ultimate sign of a top. Alexandra Scaggs of the Wall Street Journal tracks down a group of inspiring mom-and-pop investors, who offer quotes like “I still think there’s huge upside in the stock market … I don’t want to miss out.”

Sure, the return of retail investors could provide greater buying pressure to the market and push indexes to even more record highs in 2014. But once people start buying stocks simply because stocks are going up, that sounds to me like the very definition of a bubble.

Comment by oxide
2013-11-18 10:16:06

10-15% correction? That’s going from 16000 to 14500, which is where it was last April. Whip-de do, way to go out on a limb there.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 10:28:55

Gawd woman…… You’re the Edith Bunker of finance……..

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 16:35:29

Down 10% = 14,400
Down 15% = 13,600

Both are less than 14,500. And I expect neither to occur in the currently giddy environment.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 08:31:12

CNBC: “Home Ownership Is For Suckers”

“The joke is on the naïve crowd who rushed to buy a home this summer as fears of missing the next great housing boom appeared.”

“It’s inevitable the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its bond-buying program sometime in the future. And, when it does, home buyers will be wishing they were never suckered into purchasing property.”

heh…..

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101192450

Comment by Puggs
2013-11-18 23:38:44

House is gonna git you sucka!!

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 08:45:55

“Home equity lines due for reset may be looming financial disaster”

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/10/business/la-fi-harney-20131110

And don’t forget… the subprime debacle is still in front of us.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Steve J
2013-11-18 10:33:36

Damn unions!

Comment by WT Economist
2013-11-18 10:56:54

They got their piece of the serfs too.

The political/union class. The executive/financial class. And the serfs.

The serfs include younger generations of what used to be the middle class. Until all the serfs understand that they are the serfs and are willing to retailiate, the political/union class and the executive/financial class will keep grabbing.

Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:33:49

I wish someone would explain to me how turning union workers into serfs, without doing anything about the vampire squid political/executive/financial class is going to do anything other than create more serfs.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by WT Economist
2013-11-18 13:47:28

The union members in the private sector lost their jobs, or were forced to reduce what they charge to what their customers could afford.

The union members in the public and publicly funded sectors got their pensions increased, for the same reason the executives allegedly got their pay increased — rising stock prices. But in reality in each case the winners are those who can force other people to pay.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2013-11-18 14:08:29

some fear ALkada- I fear gov worker unions

 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 14:27:55

“….got their pensions increased……”

Not around here they didn’t. For the past 20 years. They did get a 1% “COLA”.

Of course, this is 100% more than anyone in the private sector got.

It’s funny. The private sector working stiff has endured 30 years of below the cost of living COLAs, pay freezes, benefit reductions, cost transfers, etc. Even when business was booming. All in order to remain “competitive”.

And after all of the givebacks, the job got outsourced/off-shored anyway.

Republicans/Corporations are just pizzed that they won’t have the opportunity to totally screw public sector workers.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-11-18 15:50:28

The union members in the private sector lost their jobs, or were forced to reduce what they charge to what their customers could afford.

The union members in the public and publicly funded sectors got their pensions increased, for the same reason the executives allegedly got their pay increased — rising stock prices. But in reality in each case the winners are those who can force other people to pay.

IOW, the PTB had great success in the ’70s, and ’80s in weakening private sector unions. The result was that salary and benefits for many private sector workers failed to keep pace with inflation.

Workers in the public sector were able to hold on to their unions and decent pay and benefits. Private workers are envious. Many of them have been convinced that the solution to their problems would be the deunionization of the public workers, instead of forming their own unions. Thus the one percent get the ninety-nine percent to fight among themselves.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 16:34:44

Workers in the public sector were able to hold on to their unions and decent pay and benefits. Private workers are envious.

You nailed it.

 
Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-11-18 20:56:30

That’s ridiculous. The public sector unions, especially the public safety ones, haven’t held on to anything. Instead they shilled their way to huge increases in the late 90s and after through corrupt collusion with those supposed to be guarding the public fisc but willing to sell out the public for campaign support.

It was a huge windfall that was based on gamed projections going up to infinity. Public sector unions are an abomination very much unlike private unions.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2013-11-18 21:01:30

That’s ridiculous. The public sector unions, especially the public safety ones, haven’t held on to anything… Instead they shilled their way to huge increases in the late 90s

Maybe so. But to prove it, you need to show that the public sector union’s pay has markedly risen above the rate of inflation the past 30 or so years…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 08:54:33

This one also speaks for itself. It is amazing what looking at 18,000 years of data tells you compared to looking at 180 years:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/17/climate-and-human-civilization-over-the-last-18000-years/#more-97612

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 09:00:16

“Housing Inventory Remains Spacious”

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/06/vital-signs-housing-inventory-remains-spacious/

Leaking the truth out via blogs is their method.

Hint:Excess empty inventory is roughly double what they’re admitting…. and rising.

Comment by Rental Watch
2013-11-18 17:23:18

“Leaking the truth out via blogs is their method.”

Nope. They get their data from the US Census, who releases it via press release to all to see:

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/qtr313/q313press.pdf

Notice the release date? The day before the blog posting, as they note…notice the year round vacancy number on page 4? 10.2%, as posted on their blog.

When I posted this data (and dug deeper into the data that made up the press release summary) about the time it came out, you hooted and hollered about how the data was trash.

And now it has become one of your talking points?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 19:25:25

It is trash Liar. The excess empty inventory is double that amount then some.

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Steve W
2013-11-18 10:22:43

Actually, if you click on the cities in Illinois, Chicago looks pretty darn good and is “all green”. Probably an over-estimate on Moody’s part, especially as they don’t talk about the pension/bond mess in Chicago. But yes, I’d highly recommend all of you to avoid moving to Rockford, Decatur, or Danville. They are all Dying.

Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 12:07:15

It’s a trend that’s been building for some decade. The same reason Washington DC is prospering compared to other cities and towns. This should tell you how bad the $hit is. The pie got smaller and the power centers are holding on and prospering at the expense of everybody else. The end result is chaos. Guarenteed.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 12:45:28

“They are all Dying.”

The all die and other areas boom. And it occurs quite rapidly.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 21:12:21

It is looking particularly bad after yesterday morning. Check out how one guy avoided getting his home blown away.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2013-11-18 21:18:37

Duct tape?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 21:23:41

This video footage documents why you should never, ever buy a home in Tornado Alley. And should you someday have the camera rolling as a gigantic twister bears down on your home, don’t get so caught up in your cinematography exercise that you forget to turn off the camera and head for the basement.

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 09:32:35

Of course there are the rare times when there may be a good personal reason to buy a house in today’s market:

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/23985382/man-buys-the-house-next-to-ex-wife-erects-giant-middle-finger-statue#ixzz2kpWPZTKU

Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:35:11

I especially like the final touch, illuminating it at night. :)

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 09:33:34

“Court: Realtor misled buyers of contaminated condo”

http://www.hollandsentinel.com/article/20131116/NEWS/131119438/10923/NEWS

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2013-11-18 09:46:38

inventory down again in 22151
must be those 16,000 IRS agents getting hired

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
Comment by MidMoney
2013-11-18 16:56:42

Crispy?? - :)

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 09:57:58

“Year of Foreclosures for Westchester County”

“A new wave of foreclosures is hammering tony Westchester County.”

The resumption of the housing collapse has begun… and it is coming to your neighborhood….

http://nypost.com/2013/11/16/westchester-country-has-worst-year-of-foreclosures-since-08/

 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-11-18 10:06:25

Geithner goes to Warburg Pincus.

Wanna know why Holder or Mary Jo White will not take any significant action against financial sector companies? Because they are not going to alienate future customers and clients and employers during their brief stints in DC. They’re in DC to improve their position not damage it.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-11-18 10:22:17

‘Situated at the north end of the Front Range urban corridor, Cheyenne has been enjoying strong population growth in the 21st century. The most recent census numbers show the city’s population has grown more than 16 percent since 2000.’

‘But as the city has grown, a problem has started to emerge. With an unemployment rate of just 4.1 percent and economic developments promising hundreds of new jobs in the months and years ahead, people are having an increasingly hard time finding a place to live here.’

From the comments:

‘Too expensive for too little pay. wrote on Nov 13, 2013 : Our problem here is the price of homes. When a townhouse costs onwards of 200,000 to buy and 1500 to rent and the only jobs in town are fast food then, yes, there’s a shortage.”

‘CalBorn wrote on Nov 17, 2013: “It’s fun having to live in this silly little town. Just watching the people and their stupid politicians and their absolutely idiotic “police” department keeps us laughing. It’s like a cartoon. Fortunately, when we need to be serious about life or shopping or medical care, Fort Collins and Loveland are close by. Hey Cheyenne! Thank you for the entertainment.”

‘To Nasty Barney wrote on Nov 15, 2013: “How original. Another Californian out here bashing on Wyoming citizens. That never happens (sarcasm). We money broke ignorant hicks love you WY haters here and want more haters.”

“Borders - Nebraska and Colorado within 10 minutes - get on it and Get OUT! Hate for you to stay here with us penniless, ignorant hicks.”

Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 11:07:52

Typical scenario:

-Trendy East/West Coaster sells 1000sf coastal crapshack for $600,000.

-Moves to Flyover, spends $7000/acre on $1000/acre land, (usually the “best” local properties) “pricing out” the locals.

-Coaster starts bitching about lack of amenities, backwards locals, no Starbucks, etc.

Or the lower rung Coaster, who would be considered “trailer trash”, moves into the nabe with the local doctors/lawyers/business owners, fill the front yard with monster trucks and trailers with boats/jet skis.

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 11:17:13

The funniest cases are when the trendy coaster (the husband) really makes a good faith effort to be a good neighbor and fit in and keep his mouth shut, but the wife has no sense at all for how to get along with the locals. Hilarity ensues…

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-11-18 18:41:37

Coaster starts bitching about lack of amenities, backwards locals, no Starbucks, etc.

That reminds me of an article I read on a website one of the Bay Area newspapers. The reporter tracked down some people who sold their Northern California houses to become equity locusts in various states. The former Californians were all asked a standard list of questions about life in their new home states. One was about the weather, of course. What was fascinating was the report also asked about food and coffee. The reporter seemed to think that was an important thing to worry about. People who left the Bay Area would miss the restaurants and wouldn’t able to get good coffee.

The comments were also interesting. One was from an Asian woman who thought that she would experience racism if she left California. Another commenter compared moving to a place with a lower cost of living to wearing sweat pants and not getting properly dressed.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 11:11:11

When the front range was growing really hard in the late 90s I started to wonder if it would extend all the way to Cheyenne eventually. Of course the growth slowed after 2000 and there’s still plenty of open space between Ft. Collins and Cheyenne…and nobody on the “Front Range” considers Cheyenne part of it, I don’t think.

But yeah, those comments give you a little taste of the dynamics between the old timers and the urbanites who move in for a job (and almost never stay long).

As a guy originally from Wyoming it does pain me a bit to admit sometimes the people from out of town are right, though. The local police departments are always interesting…it can quickly devolve into Boss Hogg and Roscoe if allowed to. And when it comes to traffic enforcement the cops tend to be very bored due to the lack of serious crime and low traffic levels. You have to drive ridiculously carefully (by urban standards) if you want to avoid eventually losing your insurance. It gets old.

Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:10:19

This is pretty much true of anywhere relatively “nice” in Flyover.

All of the “flow” runs from the coasts “in”. Flyover residents are pretty much “priced out” of the coasts, especially those married with families.

I’ve known several guys who had to find other jobs (with an attendant pay-cut) because, even with “COLAs/”raises”, transferring to the coasts is a (net) big money loser.

Re: letter below. What kind of job pays a 25 year old $100K?

We’ve become two countries, in two different, parallel universes.

Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-11-18 14:26:41

Re: letter below. What kind of job pays a 25 year old $100K?

The better question would be what skills, not what age?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 14:42:13

“……what skills……”

Don’t care what “skill” it is. What percentage of 25 year olds have the “skills” that are genuinely worth $100K?

99.5% of the 25 year olds around here are “Lucky Ducks”.

Of course, I live in the parallel, suck-ass Universe that isn’t SoCal, the Bay area and the Boston-NYC-DC corridor.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 16:49:50

Don’t care what “skill” it is. What percentage of 25 year olds have the “skills” that are genuinely worth $100K?

100k isn’t what it used to be. I think a lot of people have the skills to be “worth” it…but that doesn’t mean they have any leverage to actually get it. Only a few do.

 
 
 
 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 11:16:00

When I was in Grand Junction in August, the locals were all pretty pizzed about some California/Silicon Valley gazillionaire who was paying inflated prices for scenic property south of town, to be turned into a private getaway/last stand/Oasis from the Chaos for the 1%ers.

No locals allowed, of course. Unless they were there with the illegals, building haciendas, or working the $12/hour “service jobs” like food service and parking cars

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 11:21:45

In my home town there’s a cool swimmable hot spring down by the river that was always open to the public and was assumed to be public property. Not sure what the ownership history is, but apparently it became private property at some point and recently access was closed off to create a little private resort for a rich ranch owner from somewhere else and his out of town guests. You can imagine how that’s gone over…

Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:00:26

Yeah, the locals probably thought they were members of the “club”, but found out that the 1%ers roll them in with all of the rest of the Wretched Refuse.

Uppity White people……. :)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 12:02:17

Someone should challenge the closure based on a prescriptive easement theory.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:15:08

You forget, you are dealing with Red-state “A man is the king of his home/ranch/property” types.

The goal is to make sure all of the property worth owning is in the hands of the “right” people. Then roll back the Constitution to circa 1830, so only “property owners” have a vote.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-11-18 14:12:47

people are having an increasingly hard time finding a place to live here

How can that be? There is no shortage of land in Cheyenne. Unless the PTB are rationing building permits.

200K for a townhouse in Laramie? You can get a new detached house for less than that in Loveland.

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 14:26:50

Wyoming is behind everyone else. Because we aborted the full bubble pop in 2009, it never popped at all in Wyoming. And of course it’s because everybody wants to live there.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:06:08

It is for Cheyenne Frontier Days.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by rms
2013-11-18 16:22:30

I have a friend who lost about 8 to 10-yrs worth of equity in Casper, WY when the bottom dropped away from the natural gas industry. He’s still mad about it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 10:39:46

Where’s the Brazilian tranny better known as Ru Paul?

 
Comment by Mike in SD
2013-11-18 10:42:07

I am a 25 year old male living in San Diego. Over the past several years i’ve been steadily saving to where I can now afford to put down nearly $100,000 on a house and still have reserves. I have no debt and an income slighty over $100k. However, i’ve been watching prices rise out of control off of the bottom of 2010/11 when I initially started saving.

I’m taking a wait and see approach as I have no immediate need to own a home. I would love to buy, but just can’t justify these $400k plus prices for even a stater home in a decent area. I have no idea how others are buying homes in this environment considering the position I’m in and my hesitancy to pull the trigger. Some people are just itching to go into heaps of debt no questions asked I guess. It’s all very disheartening.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 10:49:29

Good man….. Sit tight because the correction has resumed in earnest.

 
Comment by WT Economist
2013-11-18 11:02:43

Don’t buy anything until your personal life is absolutely stable, your career is relatively stable, and you are relatively sure of where you will want to be for the rest of your life.

A future spouse, a different job in a different place, anything that changes can make owning a home a bad decision. I didn’t hear anything about kids on the way (or about to enter school) and at 25 I wouldn’t expect to, so there is no point in even thinking about buying.

Comment by scdave
2013-11-18 12:02:02

Sage advise WT…

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-11-18 13:21:47

I didn’t buy my first house until I was 30. In fact, I don’t understand why one in their 20s would.

Be thankful to be 25 and making $100k per year. Keep saving and your time will come.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2013-11-18 14:12:56

CA will have to bust out prop 13 and let RE taxes rise- they’ve done everything else

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 16:31:36

When I was your age I was in the same boat. The economy was booming (despite the October 1987 stock market crash) and housing market pickings where I lived at the time were slim. I invested in long-term Treasurys which were paying maybe 8% at the time, then when the economy crashed, I cashed them in for a downpayment on a house at fire-sale prices, when there were plenty of vacant homes on the market to choose from.

My advice on buying houses is the following:
1) Never buy during a boom.

2) Always diversify your savings during a boom into something which will hold its value during a bust (not sure Treasurys at today’s rate will cut it, though).

3) Buy your house when all your friends, relatives and prospective new neighbors where you want to live are warning you that it is a crazy thing to do.

4) If scenario 3) never happens, keep renting forever but hedge your investments against further housing bubble price meltups going forward.

Good luck!

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 11:13:07

“Sentence expected for Cape realtor accused of fraud”

http://www.winknews.com/Local-Florida/2013-11-12/Sentencing-today-for-Cape-Coral-realtor

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-11-18 13:33:05

lol.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 11:51:38

Underwater Mortgages By State, May 2013

*note-The percentage of underwater shacks in CA rose since May to 31%.

http://orlandoshortsalefl.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/loans_underwater.png

 
Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-11-18 12:26:41

Gun-toting teabilly George Zimmerman was arrested again today.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/george-zimmerman-arrested-after-disturbance-call

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 12:47:03

A lot of people cannot handle the spotlight of being a celebrity. It says nothing about his guilt or innocence the night Martin was shot.

Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-11-18 13:14:41

I’m not saying he was guilty. It seemed unclear at best. However, it’s pretty clear he’s been on a path of self destruction for some time, back to before his house was foreclosed when he first went to anger management after attacking an undercover cop and getting his a$$ kicked. I think that was 2005. He’s human filth, regardless of what happened in the Trayvon incident.

 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 13:21:53

If my Tea-Party/NRA neighbors had a son, he’d look (and act) like George…..

Comment by Taxpayers
2013-11-18 14:09:32

george is a dem, yo

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 14:18:59

So he says……..probably wanted sympathy from the “bleeding hearts” on the jury.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-18 14:29:38

I think among minorities nobody claims to be R. I have one Hispanic friend who grew up in New Mexico (one of those families that has lived there since they bailed from Spain during the crusades because they were Jewish). He registers and votes R and goes to the caucuses and everything because he feels they best represent him. His Mexican friends think he’s insane. Apparently he’s the only one they know.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:08:01

Most “white Hispanics” are democrats, at least until non-Hispanic whites become a minority.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 12:52:32

Neighbor live Tweets his neighbor’s breakup argument.

http://tinyurl.com/kp9ekcw

Favorite quotes:

Girl - “I’m not looking for marriage, just what’s right below marriage”

Guy - “I can’t think in terms of like, time and s##t…..”

Girl - “Do you love me?”

Guy - “Look I’m not a guy who’s into labels……..”

Guy - “Are we getting pizza or not?…..”

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-11-18 12:52:49

Here is the kind of crapola that’s going on near me. Purchased in Spring 2012 for $175,000 as a fixer. Fixed, and back on the market at the affordable price of…$589k.

At the risk of sounding anti-free-market, guys like this are the ones who move here based on some trendy headline (food carts, bikes, etc) and then price people out of their own market.

http://www.redfin.com/OR/Portland/3917-SW-Corbett-Ave-97239/home/26400189

Comment by Hi-Z
2013-11-18 13:18:13

Someone may buy it with a no money down Federally guaranteed FHA type loan, unless some investor outbids them. It is all good, right?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-11-18 13:20:42

It’s their loss.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-11-18 13:29:13

Here’s my prediction. Someone will buy it for $575k high-fiving that they “negotiated” the price down. In 2.5 years the buyers will decide they don’t like the house/neighborhood/Portland and put it on the market for $625k. (Real estate only goes up, so why would they not?) I see it happen all the time.

I’ll defer to the builders/contractors here, but if they did the rehab correctly, they didn’t spend more than $100k. I feel I’m being generous with that number since they should have the proper connections.

I have half a mind to send them an offer for $300k. And that would be $50k over what it’s worth, IMO.

 
 
Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 13:19:20

Unfortunately, the “Crapola” is nationwide.

Trendy guy will unload this on another “trendy” Californian, and BAM!…….up go the property taxes for everyone.

As I’ve noted repeatedly, deflation is the kiss of death for the mortgage owners, banks, Realtors, homebuilders, local governments who collect property taxes…….anyone whose income depends on high (and going higher) home prices.

Notice that nobody is interested in helping out the Wretched Refuse, and their shrinking paychecks. It has occurred to me that the PTB has taken a look at the Globaization/Wage Arbitrage landscape, and have realized they are fooked. And besides, they don’t contribute anything to re-election of the Parliement of whores. So we bias policy to bail out our buddies, and throw everyone else under the bus.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-11-18 14:09:58

The guy who did it is actually from Alabama. Instead of joining the trendy bandwagon, why not bring these novel ideas to Birmingham or Mobile or Montgomery instead of moving here to be like everyone else like you? Surely they need it more than Portland does.

Comment by (Neo-) Jetfixr
2013-11-18 14:16:33

“Trendy” is a disease most locals can’t afford.

They aren’t interested in selling to locals, though. They are going for the “Creative/DINK” demographic.

Not that we don’t have the same thing happening here.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2013-11-18 14:26:28

Mmmmmmmmmmm purple.

 
 
Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-11-18 13:16:48

Goon, you checking out Ting or Republic Wireless?

Comment by goon squad
2013-11-18 15:08:08

my verizon contract ends in february. i want to keep my droid 4 so republic isn’t an option. maybe cricket wireless.

i’ve been doing a bike/bus combo a few days a week when it’s warm out, saw a drug deal happen on the seat in front of me last week. stay classy, denver.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-11-18 15:50:03

Hey Goon, I have not been to Ouray in a few years. Do you know where the Silver/Gold mine is located in relation to the downtown? I was shocked to hear about the mine accident.

Comment by goon squad
2013-11-18 16:03:47

not sure. i haven’t spent much time in ouray, i just stopped there for a sandwich after climbing mt. sneffels.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2013-11-18 15:06:32

D.C. awash in contracts, lobbying wealth, rapidly becoming the 1%

Posted on November 18, 2013

WASHINGTON • So much money to be had if you know where to look.

The avalanche of cash that made Washington rich in the last decade has transformed the culture of a once staid capital and created a new wave of well-heeled insiders.

The winners in the new Washington are not just the former senators, party consiglieri and four-star generals who have always profited from their connections. Now they are also the former bureaucrats, accountants and staff officers for whom unimagined riches are suddenly possible. They are the entrepreneurs attracted to the capital by its aura of prosperity and its super-educated workforce. They are the lawyers, lobbyists and executives who work for companies that barely had a presence in Washington before the boom.

During the past decade, the region added 21,000 households in the nation’s top 1 percent. No other metro area came close.

Two forces triggered the boom.

The share of money the government spent on weapons and other hardware shrank as service contracts nearly tripled in value. At the peak in 2010, companies based in Rep. James Moran’s congressional district in Northern Virginia reaped $43 billion in federal contracts — roughly as much as the state of Texas.

http://aconservativeedge.wordpress.com/2013/11/18/d-c-awash-in-contracts-lobbying-wealth-rapidly-becoming-the-1/ - -

Comment by goon squad
2013-11-18 16:08:21

this was in today’s (feinstein approved) washington post.

contracting can be a good gig, some of that wealth even trickles out to jobs in flyover (our main office is in metro d.c.). as i posted in yesterday’s bits, i want to ride this gravy train until the wheels fall off.

 
 
Comment by Resistor
2013-11-18 17:06:29

“LAND O’LAKES — Unmanned aircraft soon could be zipping around the grounds of Sunlake High School.

The school plans to offer a course on drone technology in January as it launches an Aerospace Career Academy with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.”

http://www.tampabay.com/news/education/k12/drone-course-kicks-off-aerospace-academy-at-pasco-high-school/2152931

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 17:22:31

Where else in the global economy besides U.S. housing and global shipping is capacity reduction used to drive up prices and profits?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 17:29:21

“…growth in the number of households has slowed, with long-term implications for the housing market.”

It’s nice for the Financial Times to point this out for a change. We’ve been saying this here so long and so often that some of us are turning blue in the face as a consequence.

P.S. “Wealth led growth…”

Why not describe it for what it really is instead of wrapping it in propaganda: Allocating an ever-larger slice of an ever-shrinking pie to an ever-declining share of the population.

Smart Money
November 18, 2013 8:37 am
Federal Reserve policy fuels wealth-led growth
By Henny Sender

When Rwandan bonds are yielding below 8 per cent, Indonesian sovereign debt swings 150 basis points and the Indian rupee oscillates wildly in a matter of weeks, while every day the US equity market sets new highs, (despite lacklustre earnings growth which continues to be driven largely by cost-cutting), some people might conclude that markets are volatile and bubbly. Clearly, though, both the current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, nominated to take over as Fed chair, are not among the worriers.

Ms Yellen’s remarks, prepared for her confirmation hearings last week, contained no hint of tapering. That underscores the Fed’s obsessive fear of the negative wealth effect of any slowdown in asset purchases and a move towards higher interest rates. Five years after the meltdown, it is clear the Fed’s quantitative easing is not about a real economic recovery, it is only about generating the liquidity that gives rise to asset inflation and wealth-led growth. Or super wealthy people-led growth since wages and incomes for the rest of us are not rising at all.

Despite the failure to restore growth all these years later, the Fed’s response is to keep ramping up, reflecting an assumption that growth can return to its former speed of say 3 per cent a year. But many analysts believe potential growth is coming down. They say the assumption in the Fed chairman’s office that the economy is performing below its trend, like some intractably ill-behaved child, looks increasingly doubtful.

There are several reasons for this scepticism. For one thing, the labour participation rate is falling, making the target unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent ever more unrealistic. Until the 1980s, women were entering the labour force in increasing numbers, but now that trend is reversing. At the same time, many discouraged workers have dropped out.

Moreover, productivity is falling. For example, JPMorgan economist Robert Mellman noted recently that the hope that manufacturing will be a catalyst for recovery in the US is probably unrealistic, despite the relatively low price of natural gas in the country and the use of labour saving technology.

Indeed, despite low interest rates, real investment in structures for manufacturers shows that spending declined at a double-digit rate through the first half of the year. The correct interpretation of a slight rise in employment in that sector, Mr Mellman notes, is not that orders are on the rise but that growth in labour productivity is relatively weak. “Manufacturing output has lagged behind and is still about 5 per cent below its previous cyclical peak,” he concludes.

In addition, growth in the number of households has slowed, with long-term implications for the housing market. The Fed’s policy means that companies have an incentive to engage in share buybacks and dividend issuance (preferably with borrowed money) rather than investing in their operations. Since the trough, such activity is up almost 200 per cent, according to data from Citigroup.

All this means that the disconnect between financial asset prices (especially share prices) and the real economy remains as wide as ever. For a snapshot of what the world looks like today consider the better than expected earnings of AP Møller-Maersk, the shipping company, which is a proxy for world trade. Its operations today are all about taking out capacity, not placing orders to add capacity, its earnings a reflection of vigorous cost cutting rather than real growth.

“We can’t rely on GDP developments to help us, we need to do it ourselves,” said Nils Andersen, Maersk’s chief executive.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-11-18 17:37:45

Oil/Gas (Opec)
Steel production

I’m sure there are others…just go to the oligopolies…

Comment by Ben Jones
2013-11-18 18:22:36

‘Activist investor Carl Icahn on Monday said there was a chance the stock market could suffer a big decline, saying valuations are rich and earnings at many companies are fueled more by low borrowing costs than management’s efforts to boost results.’

‘He said share buybacks are driving results, not profitability. ‘Very simplistically put, a lot of the earnings are a mirage,’ Icahn told Reuters. ‘They are not coming because the companies are well run but because of low interest rates.’

Comment by Rental Watch
2013-11-18 18:33:30

I guess I look at buybacks differently depending on the circumstances:

1. If a company is buying back stock with borrowed money, and their business is flat to declining? That’s not a good thing.

2. If a company is buying back stock with free cash flow, and their business is flat to increasing? The stock buyback might be a very tax efficient way to get value back to the shareholders–if what matters to the shareholder is price per share, then this could be a great thing.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-11-18 21:15:45

Gloomsters have been saying the market was going to pull back all year. I’ll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile, damn those torpedoes, I’m buying, dammit!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-11-19 09:40:56

Stupid gloomsters.

 
 
 
 
 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post