Bits Bucket for November 20, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Realtors were an active and intentional participant in the great swindle that was Housing Bubble 1.0, that bankrupted millions and enriched the 0.1%, and are active and intentional participants in the dead cat bounce lie that is Housing Bubble 2.0, that will bankrupt millions more and is presently futher enriching the same 0.1%.
All of the above is true. Just because you got lucky with your timing on the re-inflation of the Sacramento bubble gives you no right to dispute the above, or to protest the “redundant” broadcast of that message.
And by the way, Realtors are LIARS
It really is an interesting phenomenon, the Realtor. No real educational requirement. I think cosmetologists have more stringent licensing requirements. And the profession depends on a structural flaw in the system where they make more where their client pays more. So they have incentive to lie and collide with the sellers agent. Imagine going to buy a used car and there are two salesman, one of whom claims to represent you.
That setup doesn’t attract people who turn sharp corners.
Realtors work for the seller, no matter how many of them collide.
Was doing a FSBO about 10 years ago.
Couple walks in with their “buyer’s agent”. While they were checking out the basement, the “buyer’s agent” walked up to my wife with paperwork and asked, “How much do you want me to have them pay for it?”
Scum.
The word that comes to mind when I hear “realtor” is: Malice
…with forethought.
Realtors work for themselves.
That’s why on average, they sell their own home for more than a third party. They will not reach for the last dollar, since they only get a couple percent of that last dollar. What they care about is getting the sale, even if it’s only 95% of what they could get if they REALLY tried.
Is lester appleton Yun a liar?
Yep, it’s about closing the deal in residential. The agent doesn’t really care about the price as much as it progresses to the coe, payday. Although listing agents want the high priced listing to catch the eye of future clients.
Buying a listing is about the inked deal. Adjusting the price down is after the seller’s euphoria wears off after dom gets longer.
Residential closed prices are usually pumped up by the seller. Some folks actually look at online public record.
I don’t do residential. I know the business model.
That’s why on average, they sell their own home for more than a third party.
That was covered in Freakonomics
The other fundamental you want to keep in mind is;
Houses Depreciate….. ALWAYS
The losses to depreciation will always make a house a horrible investment.
“Remember Jerry, it’s not a lie if YOU believe it.”
The Economist: “The Great Realtor RipOff”
http://www.economist.com/node/21554204
Someone here recently stated that “realtors are liars”.
Someone is correct.
And as Ringo once wisely sang, they get by with a little help from their friends:
http://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/top.php?indexType=i
If real estate is such a great “investment”, why does the real estate industrial complex need to spend over a billion dollars on lobbying?
And if you drill down in the above link (pending to post), note that the National Association of Realtors spent over $40 million on lobbying in 2012.
Why?
The National Association of Realtors lobby is so mighty now that they are able to openly advertise on (supposedly) not-for-profit National Public Radio. I suggest NPR’s non-profit status be revoked for misleading the American public into buying overpriced crap shacks.
More government subsidized liberalism. NPR is engineered to lower testosterone. Soothing tones and falsely calm announcers pimping for the NAR. And now let’s look at the markets…
All this type of stuff should have been out the window with the burgeoning of the internet. There is no reason one government dollar should go to something like this these days. Everyone, even the poorest, has access to anything NPR is putting out. Even from a liberal perspective those dollars are better spent on helping out some poor kids whose parents have abandoned them not making Alec Baldwin’s day more pleasant.
The passed hors d’oeuvres crowd needs another sip of wine.
Makes you wanna be the guy “preparing” the hoover doovers.
“NPR is engineered to lower testosterone.”
Also paving the path for estrogen-based leadership (e.g. Hillary Clinton in the WH).
“All this type of stuff should have been out the window with the burgeoning of the internet.”
What, you mean one should actually research what he buys before he buys?
Old school thinking.
PBS is becomning over-corporatized as well. I just sent PBS/WETA my yearly renewal… along with a nice nastygram explaining why my donation was 1/3 of what it was last year. The gist of the nastygram:
1. They stretch the limits of “no commercial interruption.”
2. Nightly Business Report sold out to CNBC and fired all the field office staff. Yet WETA continues to air the show anyway.
3. WETA took of their Create programs in favor of WETA/UK.
My niece is a psychiatrist with a practice in Columbia Heights. Do you need a referral?
i have several friends where NPR is just about their sole outlet for news.
depressing.
Since I am agreeing with you, probably not.
“NPR is just about their sole outlet for news”
And when it is, the only “news”-worthy things in the past year are gay marriage, gun control, and Trayvon Martin.
…… and unending propaganda from swindlers known as realtors.
NPR
There is great medical advancement reporting on NPR. Not all of it is a waste. I like Science Friday as well.
It isn’t advertising. They get recognition of their “sponsorship” of the non-profit. It is similar to a local theater company putting in a page in a program thanking the local lumber yard for their donation of materials used to build the sets, though obviously it is heck of a lot more sophisticated than that.
You can tell it is sponsoship, not advertising because it can’t mention a price (which ads can) and because it can’t say that its services/product is better than a something else that would fulfill the same purpose (our cars are better than the other guy’s cars). The rules from from the FCC.
And NAR lobbies because that is what associations do. They are all lobbying organizations. They are looking out for the interests of the people they represent. Advertising and lobbying (and political donations) is all they are there for. Occasionally associations will also recommend standards or sponsor certifications for people to be part of the profession they represent, but even that is part of the promotion of the reputation of their members and is used to argue that they are experts who should be deferred to in lobbying.
Associations are big money in DC. Gigantic.
That’s advertising. Your distinction sounds like someone discussing the difference between money and currency.
Ask not what your country can do for you, ask how you can defend the Nanny state until the end.
Not one tax dollar should go to these shills.
And now a look at the markets (cue soothing music to pacify the sheep).
“The sailors and pilots,
The soldiers and the law,
The pay offs and the rip offs,
And the things nobody saw.”
Wow. Never thought I would see this in MSM. It was clear to me as a college freshman that realtors are scumbags.
While we at it, when are we going to see articles on how much lawyers cost our economy?
How about articles on how much Congress costs our economy while we are at it?
How much do voters voting for such a congress cost outpr economy. That is the bigger question.
A few years back someone posted an article or data set that proved California realtors are the most corrupt and are most frequently involved in crime than realtors from any other state.
Please repost it.
Thanks
“Real estate agent launders money for drug trafficker”
http://www.valleycentral.com/neighborhood/story.aspx?id=928355
See also Washington Post blurb below.
So both Realtors and Congress are cokeheads and drug pushers, no surprise there.
Dallas-Fort Worth home foreclosure filings hit lowest in a decade
“We still don’t know if we have a large number of problem properties that are being carried by the lenders.”
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/residential-real-estate/20131119-dallas-fort-worth-home-foreclosure-filings-hit-lowest-in-a-decade.ece
Fort Worth looks to sell off hundreds of foreclosed properties:
http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/tarrant/Fort-Worth-looks-to-sell-off-hundreds-of-foreclosed-properities-232409391.html
I have a cousin in the building material business who recently moved to Dallas to take a new position. He says the place is booming like crazy, with all the construction in the region.
Yeah, in Chicago today on bloomberg the CEO of Toll brothers said Texas is booming…
“We still don’t know if we have a large number of problem properties that are being carried by the lenders.”
That is so blatantly going on here. Some day I should take a little drive though our area to document how many supposedly sold homes are empty. I think a few visits over a few month’s time at certain times of the day should ferret most out.
I was recently at a little get together where a senior realtor in the crowd mentioned the burgeoning numbers of foreclosures around.
The 25 million excess empty houses is the 800# gorilla in the room.
There were two houses I was aware of that were vacant, bank owned. One got sold fairly quickly, the other, which I made an offer on while the seller still had title, is still in the bank’s name, sitting vacant. It has been vacant for 2+ years now. The market has recovered sufficiently that they can now sell for more than the note.
If that were true then it wouldn’t be sitting empty.
And remember… “A recovery in housing” is dramatically lower prices by definition.
Can somebody tell me how the act of printing money is supposedly making us wealthier and saving the economy?
If this printed money finds it way into the banks then this money will save the banks, it will keep the banks afloat. This means the economy will be saved because saving the banks means saving the economy.
If ours was an earned-money economy then this action of saving the banks would not be needed. But ours is not an earned-money economy, instead our economy is a borrowed-money economy. An argument can be made (and has been made) that banking IS the economy, that banking is the REAL economy. And as long as this thinking prevails I will be secure in my job.
Which, bottom line, is all that counts.
People thought they learned the value of having a job during the last few years. Wait for the next 5.
“If this printed money finds it way into the banks then this money will save the banks, it will keep the banks afloat. This means the economy will be saved because saving the banks means saving the economy. ”
When you say banks, don’t you really mean investment banks? Does the printed money really make it’s way down to the more local establishments?
Also when you say banking is the economy I think you’re referring to the global credit bubble. I agree with you that as long as the central banks continue expanding your job is secure. However, we all know this bubble cannot go on forever.
Then again, I’ve seen investment banking layoffs in sizable numbers within the last month. There is apparently some trouble in paradise.
Of the 0.1%, by the 0.1%, for the 0.1%.
The 0.1%, 0.01%, and 0.001% get trillions of QE to keep getting fatter like Augustus Gloop.
And the Lucky Ducks get $80 billion of food stamps and other free sh*t like Obamaphones to keep them from robbing and murdering the middle class.
And the middle class taxpayer gets to pay for all of the above.
Pure poetry. Not a flaw to be found anywhere.
Yesterday was the sesquicentennial of the speech you referenced:
“– that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom — and that government of the
people99.9%, by thepeople0.1%, for thepeople0.1%, shall not perish from the earth.”“California home sales fall in October”
http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=24637
It’s not like we didn’t know that housing demand continues to crater to 16 year lows…. but the collapsing demand is accelerating….
Lesson: Housing Demand Collapses When Prices Are Grossly Inflated
Sub-Prime Nation
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43063.html
“The MSM did their usual spin job on the consumer credit data released earlier this week. They reported a 5.4% increase in consumer debt outstanding to an ALL-TIME high of $3.051 trillion.
Whenever you hear that “consumers have delevered”, know that it is utter and complete bullsh*t.
And you thought the previous housing price collapse was big? You’re going to be shocked. Keep your powder dry, hold NO debt and have cash….
…. you’re gonna need every last penny.
At your prices I can buy a Guilded Age mansion in the best school district in the USA and have plenty of money left!! Problem is - will your prices ever materialize in such neighborhoods?
Running and flailing your arms in deep denial is unbecoming.
Lending Standards Gradually Collapsed Since Q3 2011
http://marketrealist.com/2013/11/credit-still-easing-subprime-gone-banks/
Wasn’t it Q3 2011 when the housings dead cat bounce started?
Prepare yourselves for Mortgage Meltdown Part II
“Subprime 2.0: Big Banks Exposed To $60 Bil In Bad Gov’t Loans”
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/102113-675996-bofa-wells-citi-jpmorgan-saddled-bad-fha-mortgages.htm
Now the very fundamental point of this pending disaster is that millions of people overpaid for housing from 2009- current.
Apparently not everyone is as bubble blind as the Fed brass are.
Marc Faber sees bubbles, says Yellen could make it worse
November 20, 2013, 4:49 AM
Bubbles? Uber bear Marc Faber sees them just about everywhere these days.
And that bubble is being pumped by central banks, which may worsen with the nomination of Janet Yellen as Fed chairwoman, he says. She adds to a “collection of dovish professors at the Fed”, who could push for more bond buying rather than a taper. Read the latest from Fed’s Bernanke on asset-buying and rates.
Faber also sees a “colossal bubble” in the high-end sector, like diamonds, art and luxury goods, where costs have been going up and competition has increased. “The outlook is relatively favorable but tastes may change,” Faber says. (HSBC strategists recently tapped luxury goods as a theme to watch for 2014, saying they see a wave of consolidation coming for the sector.)
As for what Faber likes, he’s holding onto 10-year Treasury bonds (10_YEAR +0.85%) and adding to his gold (GCZ3 -0.92%) position. On that note he also likes mining stocks, notably in the precious metals space.
Faber sees no great value within equities, warning that rising markets don’t indicate good value. An exception here is Europe, a market he sees poised to outperform U.S. stocks and emerging markets. But even here he cautions against buying “indiscriminately” because everything has moved up so much and sentiment is so bullish. The Stoxx Europe 600 index (XX:SXXP -0.11%) is up over 15% year-to-date, though that still trails a 25% surge for the S&P 500 (SPX -0.20%).
…
It’s not a bubble — it’s fluctuations!
You Say Bubble, I Say Fluctuating Risk Premia
By: Capital Spectator
November 19, 2013 09:47 AM
David Stockman says that “we have bubbles everywhere” in markets, including stocks, junk bonds and housing. But one man’s bubble is another man’s time-varying risk premium that reflects a fluctuating expected return that’s linked in no small degree with the business cycle. Whew! Yes, one’s easier to say and the other’s a mouthful. Yet these two narratives are essentially telling us the same thing. But if you’re looking to drum up media exposure, you’re better off talking about bubbles instead of fluctuating risk premia. Bubbles offer more dramatic opportunity for interesting TV conversations. As a practical matter for managing money, however, looking at the markets through a framework of fluctuating risk premia has far more appeal.
…
I note that when Chicago egg heads talk about the nonexistence of bubbles, they tend to ignore the endogenous linkage of QE3 to developments in the real economy.
“Which Bubbles Will Burst Worst?”
http://retirementincomejournal.com/issue/november-15-2013/article/which-bubbles-will-burst-worst
“It is only a question of time, and if you asked me to guess, I’d put the collapse’s onset in the fourth quarter of 2014.”
And this housing collapse will make the previous look like a church bake sale.
“And this housing collapse will make the previous look like a church bake sale.”
+1 On a rainy day I might add.
Washington Post reports on cokehead Congressman:
“Freshman Rep. Trey Radel (R-Fla.) is expected to face a D.C. Superior Court judge Wednesday on charges of cocaine possession, after allegedly buying cocaine in Dupont Circle late last month.
If found guilty, Radel, 37, faces a maximum of 180 days in jail and a fine of up to $1,000.
Radel was elected last November with 63 percent of the vote. He represents Florida’s 19th Congressional District, which includes Fort Myers, Naples, Cape Coral, Bonita Springs and Marco Island.
It’s stunning that a congressman can be bought and paid for with an 8 ball.
And yet those who say they don’t vote get attacked by both the right wing and the left wing. Go figure.
Luckily the headline inflation statistic ignores the volatile food-and-energy sectors. Otherwise falling consumer prices in October might make the Fed want to ramp up QE3 to $100 bn a month.
Nov. 20, 2013, 9:24 a.m. EST
U.S. consumer prices decline in October
Falling energy costs push annual inflation down to lowest rate since 2009
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
Bloomberg
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. consumer prices fell slightly in October because of a decline in energy prices, pushing the annual pace of inflation down to the lowest rate since 2009, the government said Wednesday.
The decline in consumer prices — the first since April — is yet another sign that inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy is largely absent. The low level of inflation has enabled the Federal Reserve to maintain a huge economic-stimulus program and some central bankers might see the continued lack of pricing power as evidence that the economy is still too weak for their strategy to be unwound any time soon.
In October, the consumer price index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, the Labor Department reported. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the CPI to be unchanged.
Over the past 12 months the consumer prices have risen an unadjusted 1%, the smallest increase since October 2009.
Energy prices sank 1.7%, led by a 2.9% decrease in gasoline.
The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.1%. The core rate has climbed a somewhat-faster but still-soft 1.7% in the past 12 months.
…
electricity goes up every year here. so gas falls 20 cents and now the consumer is saved. Talk about bs.
My electric bill is $26 this month.
$180 -$230 NYs National Grid. House isn’t even that big.
Electric heat and hot water.
Why do we live here again?
It could be worse…. you could have an oil fired boiler firing at 70% efficiency with fuel oil at $4/gal.
(most oil boilers don’t get any better than 70-75% efficiency).
Yeah, I saved a whole 6 bucks on my last fillup.
That extra $25/month really makes my wallet want to jump out of my pocket.
Last month’s electric bill was $83 for an “all electric” home, but now the mercury is dropping as a “cold-snap” arrives.
electricity goes up every year here ??
Well sure it does…How would you like to have a business, that sells a product, that the the consumer simply cannot function without it AND have ZERO competition ??
Budget deficit ?? No big deal, raise the metric cost on the sewer, water, garbage, electricity…What the hell, its only a 17% increase on a $26. monthly bill…There won’t be any organized resistance…Most won’t even notice…
$56 electric
$56 water
$22 trash
$14 gas
The high priced items are HO insurance,EQ insurance, and property taxes.
+200k loss on a depreciating house
+opportunity cost on the $200k
With J6p having less after job loss decreased hours, taxes, shifted health care expenses ,prior market manipulation and tightening bank standards (and the realization that you can’t borrow your way to prosperity in a deflating economy) it’s only a matter of time until they spend less. US gas consumption is falling, as is consumption of other goods and services. Combine this with increasing supply and efficiency in manufacturing and what do you get.
Falling prices. Another collapse in housing is on the way.
To get ahead in today’s world you have to pay the bankers their cut.
How can the avg joe buy a new car or a house at these inflated prices without mr banker involved?
the avg joe has leveraged up his paycheck so he can have the american dream.
My dad bought a fixer upper in east san diego county for 12,000 in 1970. The house still stands and the values are ~ 300,000.00 to day.
to buy that house today @ 300k with nothing down @ 4% interest for 30 yrs would be a monthly payment of 1432.25 or 515,610.00 in total.
That is 215,610.00 in interest to the bankers over that 30 years.
“My dad bought a fixer upper in east san diego county for 12,000 in 1970. The house still stands and the values are ~ 300,000.00 to day.”
Without a buyer in sight at that price.
Don’t forget to add in the $300k loss to taxes, maintenance and insurance.
they are lining up in s cal. this party is bigger than the last.
Apparently not considering housing demand has collapsed in CA.
Did you not read todays headline?
“How can the avg joe buy a new car or a house at these inflated prices without mr banker involved?”
Gotcha!
Think about it…. The federal reserve is buying $1 TRILLION of houses/year. Of course banks aren’t offering subprime loans. The Federal Gov is and has been since 2008.
And you’re going to risk 30 years of earnings in that environment?
You need your head examined.
The FED = The new NINJA home buyer
How long does it take for the financial market equivalent of an earthquake to settle out?
Now we have state AGs going after fraudulent mining of purely imaginary currency. How weird is that?
Nov. 20, 2013, 8:05 a.m. EST
Volatile bitcoin off nearly 50% from $900 high
By Barbara Kollmeyer
MADRID (MarketWatch) — Sellers stepped up the pressure on bitcoin Wednesday, pushing prices down to around $480 amid heavy volume. Wild price swings continued for a second day with bitcoin showing a high so far of $748 and a low of $460. The price of bitcoin is now nearly 50% down from its around $900 high reached on Tuesday. The New Jersey attorney general’s office said Tuesday that online video game group E-Sports Entertainment LLC has agreed to pay $1 million in a settlement over bitcoin mining. The suit alleges E-Sports “infected thousands of personal computers with malicious software code” allowing the company to “monitor what programs subscribers were running and illegally mine for bitcoins. The company is estimated to have generated around $3,500 by mining for bitcoins, taking control of 14,000 computers across the U.S., including New Jersey.
Waiting for the HBB’s tech-crazed sci-fi buffs to step in here and tell us how bitcoin isn’t imaginary — it’s real! Mined using a special algorithm which is much better than QE3 by a bot in cyberspace who keep a hidden stash of the stuff in a special cyber hiding place for anyone who sends in their hard-earned dollars.
I don’t suppose it is that much worse than the Fed announcing it just found an extra $1 trillion on its balance sheet and handing over the proceeds to Megabank, Inc.
how long can the FED keep excess reserves parked in the bank?
Like every other item in the financial world, a bitcoin is a logical construct.
Currency, the base of the financial world is a logical construct. But it has a physical representation - slips of paper.
Bitcoin has no physical representation. It is a digital representation of a logical construct. Similar to a savings account.
The caveat is, no one really knows how stable the supply of, or access to, bitcoins is.
The government seems to like bitcoin because it is a “thing” that people want. It may or may not improve the standard of living - something that economists and policy makers ignore - but it might add to the GDP of society. The reason government likes bitcoin is the same reason it like “financial innovation” - creating logical constructs which people value, increasing GDP. Unfortunately with too many instances of financial innovation, the seller is enriched while the buyer is victimized and the innovation doesn’t improve the quality of life of the buyer.
Quality of Life is an interesting thing - it is both physical and mental.
If an item’s only value to a buyer is that he believes he can sell it for more later… that item must be approached with caution by both policy makers and buyers.
So tl;dr: “Caveat Emptor” - buyer beware.
“illegally mine for bitcoins…”
How could that be illegal?
What made creating a non-fiat currency system legal to begin with? I’m thinking of starting my own…
I think it has something to do with ““infected thousands of personal computers with malicious software code” allowing the company to “monitor what programs subscribers were running and illegally mine for bitcoins”.
What makes me laugh is that their efforts generated $3,500!
What was illegal is the company infected personal computers without the owner’s knowledge and used the illicit programs to take over idle cpu to mine foe bitcoins. The minimg itself wasn’t illegal, rather usimg someone elses computer without their knowledge was.
FWIW, all real mining done today is done using dedicated ASIC chip hardware, not GPU’s on PC. As you can tell from the numbers, the algorithems are too difficult for regular PC’s today.
“Vacant office space continues to rise as job market is slow to recover”
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2013/10/vacant_office_space_continues.html
Is it safe to say the banking lobbyists have effectively neutered the Volcker Rule?
God’s work in progress.
bankers have basically neutered the middle class.
Not necessarily.
If you don’t marry a manipulating wife like as portrayed in the classic “Suzanne researched it” commerical, don’t participate in anti-mustachian behaviors, and not be a debt donkey, you get to keep your stones.
The NAR neutered the QRM requirements, and now the banking lobby is neutering the Volcker Rule.
These were the main parts of Dodd Frank that were going to the heart of what caused the financial meltdown.
And so what’s left?
MASSIVE amounts of other SEC rules that does not reduce systemic risk, but instead slows investment into businesses (whether it be equity or debt investments).
Bang-up job congress.
We would have been far better off re-enacting Glass-Steagall, and countering the cries from the banking industry by making it a long roll-out.
Loose money through 2020! Or 2025!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-chief-hints-prolonged-low-032200799.html
Got stocks?
‘Loose money through…’
I’m not celebrating, because it increasing looks like a broken economy. Understand how an economy works; millions of people, working, making decisions on how to allocate resources, like a giant set of gears turning and reinforcing each other. We used to have an economy where one sector could stumble, and there was enough inherent strength that we could carry on.
What do low interest rates mean? Borrowing. From governments, from working people. I subscribe to the school of thought that debt isn’t a good thing. That we are already choking on mountains of debt. You can’t borrow or print your way to prosperity.
‘Printing money is not the way out of the euro zone crisis, European Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann said, resisting the possibility raised by others at the ECB of buying assets to aid a weak recovery.’
“We have lowered interest rates and are offering banks unlimited liquidity. But there are no easy and quick ways out of this crisis,” he told German weekly Die Zeit in an interview to be published on Thursday. “The money printer is definitely not the way to solve it. It will still take years until the causes of the crisis are eliminated.”
We are drifting further and further away from a real economy. It’s worrisome that the people in charge aren’t alarmed by all this. Because what it means to me is that this could all collapse at any moment, and there is nothing there to back us up.
Gotta love Yahoo. They changed there headlines about QE twice in one day.
Next month there will be an article at 9:30 eastern time saying there will be QE for another 5 years. At 11:30 eastern time same day they will post a hawkish article and say tapering will start in a month. At 1:30 same day they will say Yellen wants to QE through 2030. At 4:00 same day they will quote Mr. Magoo on irrational exuberance.
Stocks will go in all sorts of directions that day. MSM finance sites are funning with Wall st.
“MSM finance sites are funning with Wall st.”
+1 Market Watch has been doing this for years; able to sing the Battle Hymn of the Republic or Whistle Dixie with equal enthusiasm.
http://news.yahoo.com/another-u-city-mulls-bankruptcy-due-soaring-wages-183907465–sector.html
Another California city heading to bankruptcy.
http://calwatchdog.com/2013/11/18/state-of-ca-worsened-desert-hot-springs-financial-problems/
I particularly like the chart from the article about building permits. Can you spot the housing bubble years:
No. of Building Permits — Desert Hot Springs 1997 to 2013
Year Number of Building Permits Average Cost Total Valuation Added To Tax Base 1 percent tax assessment
2012 0 None $0 $0
2011 0 None $0 $0
2010 3 $145,200 $435,600 $4,356
2009 2 $162,800 $325,600 $3,256
2008 23 $171,500 $3,944500 $39,445
2007 113 $163,200 $18,441,600 $184,416
2006 558 $134,500 $75,051,000 $750,510
2005 1,006 $131,700 $132,490,020 $1,324,902
2004 1,132 $129,000 $146,028,000 $1,460,280
2003 540 $119,100 $64,314,000 $643,140
2002 149 $109,000 $16,241,000 $162,410
2001 39 $101,200 $3,946,800 $39,468
2000 23 $108,400 $2,493,200 $24,932
1999 3 $109,600 $328,800 $3,288
1998 2 $127,500 $255,000 $2,550
1997 4 $135,900 $543,600 $5,436
Hint the number of permits is the second number.
Have you ever been to Desert Hot Springs?
I have.
Think Breaking Bad when they were cooking meth in the middle of the desert.
Now add a few roads, some really old houses and some trailer parks.
I know the area where they shot those scenes in Breaking Bad and it is not really in the middle of the desert, it is about twenty miles from downtown Albuquerque. However, I doubt anyone has cell phone service in the area where they used them in the episodes. However, I get your point. As far as Desert Hot Springs, I have seen signs but never really been there. It sounds a lot like the area around the Salton Sea and I have been there.
Just like your own neighborhood.
Correction: about twenty miles from ABQ. but 25 miles from the downtown.
You deserve extra pay and pension benefits, if you live in Desert Hot Springs 12 months/year.
But let’s see what the deal is…..lets look at Wikipedia.
The Police Department was formed in 1997, and is relatively small. Shouldn’t be a huge amount of pension costs there
Fire and EMT services are contracted with Riverside County. No giant FD or EMT pensions coming directly out of the city coffers.
“The city underwent extensive infrastructure improvements….including repaving of 37 miles of residential streets……government has shifted it’s focus to downtown revitalization…..”
(Now I smell a rat……)
“In 2001, the town filed for a Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy…..The bankruptcy was resolved in 2004 by selling municipal bonds when it faced a legal judgement of almost $6 million”
(El Rata numero dos…..I wonder how much Wall Street “help” they got with this……)
2010 population = 25,938. A “diverse” community (read as poor, predominately minority……) 41.6% of the population is age 0-24.
Per capita income (2000) was $11,954. Poverty rate…..”or one of the highest for cities over 10,000 in Southern California”.
(God forbid the residents of Palm Springs, Cathedral City
and Palm Desert be forced to help pay for all the problems generated by the wretched refuse staffing the resorts, golf courses and polo clubs…. Better to get some guidance from the Nazis, and shove the hired help into their own ghettos on the other side of I-10)
Palm Springs Metro area = Prototype of US civilization, circa 2030-2040
“Amy Aguer, the interim director of finance, did not have details on how the shortfall occurred but said it was the result of higher-than-expected pension and salary costs, especially in the police department”
So not only are these jerks gunning down kids with toys guns, they’re bankrupting the communities they serve.
Existing Housing Resales Continue To Crater
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/21/usa-economy-housing-idUSL1N0IB0RF20131021
Now remember….. NARscum “developed” this information. They’re the same outfit that overstated sales every single month for years.
Why is that?
From Bloomberg:
Purchases of previously-owned U.S. homes fell in October to the lowest level in four months as limited supply and higher mortgage rates restrained momentum in the housing-market recovery.
Sales (ETSLTOTL) dropped 3.2 percent to a 5.12 million annual rate, the fewest since June, according to data released today by the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 5.14 million pace. The partial federal shutdown last month may have delayed some closings, the group also said
Purchases of previously-owned U.S. homes fell in October to the lowest level in four months as limited supply and higher mortgage rates restrained momentum in the housing-market recovery.
They forgot to include the decimated middle and dieing but they don’t know it yet upper middle and lower class rich as a cause.
I just looked up a house I rented 6 years ago. Still for sale, the guy purchased it for 860 put in 100k or more. He rented to me and another couple for an amount that netted him him 15k after taxes. He had a loan for 760k probably at > 5%. When we left he had illegally moved into the basement and had come out of retirement taking teaching jobs in crime ridden areas around the country to fill the gap. I’m surprised he’s held out on for so long.
Excellent article discusses historical patterns of wealth inequality and political instability (and even mentions too many lawyers as contributing to the problem), chock full of data:
“We should expect many years of political turmoil, peaking in the 2020’s. And because complex societies are much more fragile than we assume, there is a chance of a catastrophic failure of some kind, with a default on U.S. government bonds being among the less frightening possibilities.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/blame-rich-overeducated-elites-as-our-society-frays.html
Nice article
Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class.
This is not a small point. When economies are expanding and there are multiple opportunities the children of elites might set off to fine their own fortune in business or find they are interested in some academic pursuit , but when times get hard and there are fewer legitimate opportunities these young elites will of course turn to the family and nepotism and clan like behavior will ensue. This of course kills the concept that anyone can get ahead with hard work and intelligence. People in places of power will spend more and more of their time net working and protecting their turf and less and less time producing anything. It is the death knell for the country.
“….more fragile than we assume……”
You got that right.
Name any transportation or infrastructure business, look under the mattress, and you will find a giant house of cards, held together with Elmer’s and a few overworked, underpaid technical/maintenance people.
Maintenance and upkeep is considered a “cost”, to be ruthlessly reduced. No “ROI” there.
Sales, OTOH, is a “profit generator”, and has become the new Nirvana of the “Yes-men”, pathologic liars, and con men. Making sure the product works is the job of those stupid-ass losers in engineering and tech support. Like the banksters, they will say whatever it takes to generate a commission check.
I’ve been cleaning up the messes generated by sales types for 35 years, so I know of which I speak. My conversations with fellow wrench-turners in various other tech support industries tells me that it’s pretty much the same everywhere you look.
HYP graduates did this country in.
If you are white, there is a 2/3 chance you are also a racist:
“Views on the president expressed by whites and nonwhites are precisely inverted. Whites disapprove of Obama’s performance by 66-to-31. Nonwhites — Hispanics, blacks, Asians — approve 66-to-32.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/does-obama-need-white-people-.html
And speaking of racists, this article is probably racist too (WARNING: article not written by approved “real journalists”):
http://mobile.wnd.com/2013/11/surprise-media-finally-wake-up-to-knockout-game/
Maybe they are playing the “Knockout Game” because they were told all white people think Zombies are black like the Teabagger white supremacist Christie on the Family Feud.
Family Feud’ Contestant Thinks Zombies Are Black
By Tony Maglio on November 19, 2013 @ 2:30 pm
No word on if “Feud” contestant thinks Steve Harvey is a zombie
A game show contestant by the name Christie almost started a real incident on “Family Feud.”
The typical pre-game face-off challenge required the two competitors to name one thing they know about zombies. And Christie blurted out, “They’re black.”
Steve Harvey and the Pierce family — who are African-American — weren’t having that. Neither was the big board and its 100 surveyed people — but that’s probably because it was a really dumb answer.
The Pierce family stole control of the board — and the game — by countering, “They move slow,” good enough for the sixth top answer. But for some reason, they decided to play instead of pass to the family that has clearly never seen a zombie.
Watch the clip:
http://www.thewrap.com/family-feud-zombies-are-black-steve-harvey - 83k -
As I recall, in the olden days, in the movies zombies usually were black, with plots involving voodoo, Africans or Haitians. Not the PC answer to give today of course, I’m just sayin’…
“As I recall, in the olden days, in the movies zombies usually were black”
I am sure I am not as up to date as I should be on Zombies, but I just kind of assumed they were like the original “Night of the Living Dead” zombies, which to the best of my recollection were all white.
Now having said that, I believe the main dude who kept everybody from being eaten by the Teabagger Zombies in that movie was black. Also, after making it through the night, the black dude in that movie got shot for being mistaken for an actual Zombie. (or that is what the racist screen writer would have you believe anyway)
Correct and that type of plot continued into at least one James Bond movie.
Technically, zombies are a mouldy-looking gray/green.
Found a bunch of youtubes on Haitian zombies. Apparently the original zombie movie is “White Zombie” (1932) (the title implies a white zombie is unusual.) IDK, I’m old but not that old.
This might work for the racist Black Zombie video.
Black Zombies on Family Feud (Video) - Daily Picks and Flicks
http://dailypicksandflicks.com/2013/11/19/black-zombies-on-family-feud-video/ -
You know watching this clip I noticed they only show Pierce family, they do not show Christie the racist looking back at her family. I wonder if they could have been wearing, naaah.
“In Oklahoma earlier this year, an accused killer of the Australian college student Chris Lane tweeted that he was “playing golf” and hitting “woods” prior to the murder earlier this month. Woods is short for “peckerwoods:” White people.”
Woods is short for peckerwoods?
You learn something everyday here.
“If you are white, there is a 2/3 chance you are also a racist:”
“Views on the president expressed by whites and nonwhites are precisely inverted. Whites disapprove of Obama’s performance by 66-to-31. Nonwhites — Hispanics, blacks, Asians — approve 66-to-32.”
Is it possible that the people of all races who oppose the President do so because he is a Marxist Revolutionary?
I know he, like all revolutionaries posing as liberals, dropped the radical pose for the radical ends. That has been quite successful over the past three or four decades, I think the jig is up.
Vampires, zombies haunt some states’ housing markets
By Pamela M. Prah Stateline.org
Posted: 11/01/2013 06:51:21 PM PDT
Vampires and zombies aren’t just for Halloween and Hollywood.
The real estate industry uses these terms to describe certain kinds of foreclosed homes. And unfortunately for some states, these “monsters” could haunt their recovering housing markets.
Virginia, Nebraska, Alaska and Oklahoma have the highest rate of “vampire” property, referring to foreclosed homes that the banks took over but in which the homeowners still live.
Missouri, Indiana, Oregon and Nevada had a higher percentage of “zombies,” or homes that are still going through the foreclosure process but are vacant. The homeowner has moved out, but the bank hasn’t yet taken over the property.
That’s according to September figures from RealtyTrac, the online firm that tracks housing trends.
Of the two scary types, zombie homes are probably better-known because they are more visible. These abandoned homes often aren’t maintained. Windows might be broken. The lawn probably needs cutting. The properties are more likely to be vandalized.
“Those zombies also drag down the value of the surrounding neighborhood and lower tax revenue for the local governments,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.
“Vampire” properties often look like normal homes from the outside, since people are still living in them. The tenants may still be there for various reasons. The banks could have a backlog of foreclosures and just haven’t kicked out the tenants yet. Or the foreclosure cases could be caught up in litigation. These properties represent added costs to whoever buys the property from the bank, if the bank has to pay to evict the tenants.
Vampire homes are more prevalent than zombies, and the rates are much higher in some states.
Nearly 47 percent of the 535,271 foreclosed homes that banks have taken over still have people living in them, the latest RealtyTrac data show. That percentage is highest in Virginia, where 72 percent of bank-owned property had people living in the homes last month. Nebraska follows with 68 percent and Alaska and Oklahoma each have 67 percent, according to RealtyTrac.
Nationwide, 20 percent of the 770,276 homes that were in the foreclosure process in September were vacant, RealtyTrac said. That figure was highest in Missouri, Indiana, Oregon, Delaware and Nevada, where about one-third were vacant last month, making these states the leaders among zombie homes.
Some experts fear that the housing sector’s recovery could be derailed if all of these nearly 400,000 vampire and zombie properties hit the market at once. The vampire properties, for example, “particularly are holding back inventory from the market, helping to make the market look better than it actually is,” Blomquist said.
On the flip side, these properties could be a bargain for savvy investors, particularly vampire bank-owned homes since other buyers may be unaware that the property will soon be listed.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/business/ci_24438367/vampires-zombies-haunt-some-states-housing-markets - 106k -
Looks like Mayor Bloomberg’s term is going out with a bang, LOLZ:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/nyregion/police-report-shows-increase-in-fatal-shootings-by-new-york-officers.html
Arnie, now an USC honorary professor now that is funny:
http://calwatchdog.com/2013/11/20/prof-dr-schwarzenegger-totally-doesnt-recall-his-record/
A congressional agreement to tighten U.S. farm subsidy rules for the benefit of small and family farmers is under attack in the final negotiations over a new, overdue farm bill, two senators said on Tuesday, with time running short.
Leaders of the House and Senate Agriculture committees face an informal deadline at the end of this week to strike an agreement on a $500 billion compromise, if they hope to pass a bill this year. Congress could adjourn for the year in mid-December.
“The farm bill conference is not going well, I understand,” said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic whip and second-ranking Democratic leader in the House of Representatives.
While the make-or-break issue remains the size of cuts in food stamps for the poor, farm subsidy reforms are also in dispute although the House and Senate used similar language in their respective bills passed earlier this year.
The package would set a “hard” cap on payments per farmer and tighten eligibility rules for subsidies.
To sum it up cut’s to food aid for the poor will go through but cuts to cash payments to elite well connected gentlemen farmers who have probably never seen the land they farm will be kept intact.
It is far too early to call it a trend, it is just an interesting statistical oddity right now, but I have notice that in the last month oil production has stopped rising. A few people on this blog have expressed doubt on a continued rise in oil production due to the rapid decline in production from a well that has been fracked and I am one of them. In any event here is the latest data:
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
If you check you will notice that we are still up over 1.2 million barrels from last year so this one cannot be called yet but it use to be if a week was flat, the next week was up 40 or 50,000 barrels, have not been seeing that recently. Could be the start of a peaking of production from fracked wells.
Simple……if there is no demand, they don’t pump it out of the ground. Costs money to pump oil, then store it, even after the well is drilled. Especially on older/marginal wells.
You can tell when the “Cushing ” price is close to $100, That’s when the wells in east Kansas are pumping.
This is why the gold import numbers coming out of India recently are garbage. Smuggling is taking off like a jet and very few people get caught:
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/20/21545372-12-million-in-gold-bars-found-stashed-in-boeing-737s-bathroom?lite=
Amateurs.
Unless someone comes up with a gold-sniffing dog, hiding stuff in airplanes would be easy.
Likewise, give me the wiring diagram book, the “Expert” system for that airplane, and 15 minutes access, and I can disable just about any airplane you can name for a week or more. And make it look like an accident/normal wear and tear.
Wiring diagram - To locate the “weak spots”
Expert system - To make the “adjustment” invisible to the troubleshooters.
(One nice thing about working at an OEM repair shop……you end up with the crazy stuff that nobody else can fix/figure out).
Corelogic released their November “Marketpulse” today for people who want to peruse it.
Yahoo daily ticker
“The holiday shopping season hasn’t even officially begun, yet pessimism is already prevailing: Some experts have predicted this year’s sales increase will be the worst since 2009, the year the recession officially ended. Major retailers such as Walmart (WMT) and Best Buy (BBY) are warning investors the current quarter will be soft. Deep, early discounts (including a $98, 32-inch flat-screen TV from Walmart) could also negatively affect retailers’ bottom line.
The National Retail Federation expects 33 million people will shop online and in stores on Black Friday. Holiday sales will rise 3.9% compared to 3.5% last year, the NRF calculates. This is a higher estimate than other forecasts including ShopperTrak, which projected just a 2.4% rise.
Related: Black Friday: You Can Sleep Late and Still Get Good Deals
The government reported Wednesday that retail spending in October rose a better-than-expected 0.4%, with gains at retailers including clothing, furniture, electronics and sporting-goods stores. The news prompted JPMorgan (JPM) to declare in a recent client note that “October is a good start for 4Q consumer spending.” But for Howard Davidowitz, a longtime retail analyst and chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a consulting and banking firm, the retail sector looks bleak.
“This economy is in trouble,” he says in an interview with The Daily Ticker. “The middle class is crushed. The only growth area in this economy is poverty.”
Good. And Davidowitz forecasts are always right. And yes, he discusses housing too….. maybe you all should get his podcasts and listen as he is very entertaining. But I think he might make the housing donkeys weep profusely.
Weeping donkey…
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41Zjo8hLkvL.jpg
I’m trying to figure out the implications of Krugman’s and Summers’ new concept that the natural state of the US economy is what it is now - a “permanent slump”.
There is no more dedicated non-Fed-employee proponent of QE and “debt-doesn’t-matter” thinking than Krugman. His primary quarrel with the policies of the past five years is that the QE was too small.
What are the implications of this change? That even a Krugman-sized QE won’t bring the economy up to full employment? Or that QE is not the medicine to cure the economy? Or what? I think this is relevant because Bernanke, Yellen et. al. all subscribe to this school of thought for which Krugman advocates.
Maybe they are waking up to the fact that the only game in town left in the private sector are the banksters/wealth vampires, a synthetically inflated stock market and residential housing industry, and the Medical/Insurance cartel.
The “money” in this country insists on ROI of 8-10% annually, with little or no rise. All kinds of risks when you actually make stuff, and if you are lucky, your ROI is half of what the banksters are making.
The money will be extracted from the wretched refuse, until there isn’t any left. Then the cannibalism will start.
Walked into an ACE hardware store the other day. Other than some Channel Lock tools, and some contractor/high grade electric powered tools, everything was marked “Made in China” or “Made in Mexico”.
Also, it’s a bit of hubris too - “It’s not our policies that are ineffectual or damaging, the economy itself is just naturally like this. And without our [crony-capitalistic, money-printing, pro-debt, pro-speculation, malinvestment-encouraging] policies, the economy would be worse.”
this one is for phony scandals. michael skakel tries to buy himself ‘justice’, but he’s running out of money…
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/nyregion/familys-tenacity-and-wealth-put-skakel-at-cusp-of-freedom.html
I guess that,to the 1%ers, an actual conviction is defacto proof of a “lack of effective council”.
But then, I guess the court system in 2002 hadn’t got the word yet that these guys are “too big to fail/convict/screw up”.
“michael skakel tries to buy himself ‘justice’, but he’s running out of money…”
+1 A Greenwich white girl and pretty too.
You read this stories and you think that murder and trials are big business. Finding a whale on a hook is good money for the lawyers.
is good money for the lawyers
Most thing we do in this country is good money for lawyers. I was chatting with a co-worker about his divorce and he was complaining about how much he spent on lawyers. It was abudantly clear that laweyers (his and his ex’s) were the only winners in this family’s sad episode.
Bill in LA,
did you add to your precious metals today?
Is it below 1k yet?
No, but getting near that $1200 mining cost level.
$472.00
That is what a $20 item in 1913 would cost today. I think that is about where gold will eventually settle. Now, if I could only time the collapse.
Where have all the Robo signed I deserve a free house victims gone?
Kingston Trio
Where have all the Deadbeats gone, long time passing?
Where have all the Deadbeats gone, long time ago?
Where have all the Deadbeats gone?
Gone to rentals, every one
When will they ever learn, when will they ever learn?