The Housing Bubble

You can believe the truth or deny it and suffer the consequences.

Houses depreciate rapidly…. ALWAYS

H.A. is tedious. ALWAYS

*Yawn*

“Crumbling short term housing demand across what are normally high volume selling months combined with long term demand at 14 year lows tells us that housing prices have a very long way to fall.”

No question. The only thing holding housing prices at these grossly inflated levels is fraud.

A rental apartment will never feel like a real home.

When you pay rent, you’re just throwing money away and paying your landlord’s mortgage. When you buy a home, you build equity with every mortgage payment.

Equity is a fallacy. It doesn’t exist.

your jealous cause you dont have any equity right?

keep sending those rent checks to the man!

You’re jealous because you don’t have any cash.

Keep sending those massive payments to the bank.

Jingle is coming unhinged.

RISC,

I am very happy and quite hinged. Buying houses in 2008, 08 & 10 has been the best investment ever. Positive cash flow, principal pay down, and even value appreciation.

I am pleased to pay the bank 3.25% to 4.20% for the next ten years, while I make 5% to 10% ROI from cash flow, and add substantial gains in value (20% plus annually off the bottom, though I agree those gains only come if & when I sell).

H.A. can sit on the sidelines and cheer! HA!

Hey Jingle, check out that ACA story I posted about real estate businesses below.

***FUZZY MATH ALERT***

OxyMath/PhoneyMath… it’s all the same. Underwater.

It’s sad enough these fraudsters can’t use honest math themselves. It’s outlandish that they can’t use honest math with the public.

Semi-serious question here. I wonder if renters and prospective buyers could launch a class action lawsuit against the Federal Reserve for restraint of trade? By artificially and arbitrarily holding interest rates down(not to menion QEx), they have singlehandedly prevented responsible buyers from entering the housing market at true value prices(based on historic fundamentals). If not that, then what about racketeering/RICO? They’re a privately owned corporation, why can’t they be sued like everyone else. Of course they have special license to counterfeit issue new money, but that means they also have special responsibilities for the consequences. The courts may not hear it, but wouldn’t those be legally valid arguments for willful negligence or similar?

I pay less rent than the PITI and maintenance costs most of the home moaners pay. As a bonus I am not stuck when the neighborhood becomes ghetto. Your will. Section 8 and FHA and new integration policies guarantee that.

when the neighborhood becomes ghetto

When I was a “yout” in NYC, this happened to us over and over again. Where I rent in Vegas, it could go either way.

~500 hrs of commuting over 10 years = 5,000 hrs.

For anyone making more than $40/hr, the commuting starts to be worse than the 200k rip off in 10 yrs. That’s WITHOUT counting the non-negigible externalities, the stress (sorry, cant’ separate rush hr driving and stress), the wear & tear on the car, the oil changes, the tolls, and the gasoline. LOL @ clown car commuting. (I briefly clown car commuted 35 miles each way to DC when I started working down here… it was awful.)

But another thing to consider (and part of my criticism of your typical argument). Not ALL of the money one spends on “housing” is wasted. Some is actually required to provide housing, while the rest is pure consumption (things like a media room, pool, or sunroom) or waste (rooms that aren’t used for anything but still need heating/cooling/painting/furnishing).

My point is, if some typical couple buys a 2 BR/1.5 BA/1500 sq ft house for 200k that is close to lots of jobs and transportation hubs, that is different to me than the same couple going out and spending 400k for 4BR/3BA/3000 sq ft.

Is either purchase “right” or “wrong”? Not really, but from an economic perspective, the first house is going to meet the couple’s needs while the 2nd house involves a lot of waste/pure consumption. Nothing is perfectly efficient, but house 1 is closer.

Those are alot of “if’s” and hypotheticals.

The reality is your losses are greater when you pay more, not less.

Not ALL of the money one spends on “housing” is wasted. Some is actually required to provide housing, while the rest is pure consumption (things like a media room, pool, or sunroom) or waste (rooms that aren’t used for anything but still need heating/cooling/painting/furnishing).

I know, right? It would seem that the $350/mo I’m now paying in Boulder is about as much pure consumption as I can avoid.

I mentioned one of the seldom (if ever) mentioned costs of housing in addition to PITI and maintenance.

That was when your neighborhood goes ghetto. 99.9% of home moaners do not live in Pacific Palisades or the Hamptons, so it is not a guess that most people live where section 8 / CRA(p) / FHA / and other laws that subsidize houses or force integration move people who did not earn your neighborhood to move to it.

Here’s another cost. If you are typical, you live in a large city and your job won’t last at the same company. Chances are you are going to have to commute to the other side of the metro area. Maybe 60 miles each way. Whether or not you take the train or drive your own car, you will be sitting on your behind. The travel itself tires you out. By the time you are back home the last thing on your mind is to spend one hour working off that rear end. You are tired. So exercise goes out the window. Because you have a mortgage. You are trapped to live in one place when you could just move to where your job is. For five weeks this year I had to drive 40 miles each way. But I could break my lease with a one month break lease penalty. So I got an apartment and my drive is less than 9 miles each way. Soon less than 7. And I have time for an hour workout in the morning and to get a coffee and go home for an hour before I have to drive off to work.

So we have PITIM, Ghetto cost, and the commute cost.

Here’s another: Opportunity cost. You are offered a 20% increase in pay / compensation if you move to another city. Well you won’t do it if you have a house. For me, my new place also has a one month break-lease penalty. I could get a new job in Silly Cone Valley if the offer makes it worthwhile. Things like that happened to me.

Buy a house and become an obese slave. Life shortened.

You “take issue” because your entire financial future is founded on a lie that you wagered on. It clouded your judgement and now you have no way out.

Demand isn’t low? Really? Seriously?

You’re not solvent nor is anyone else paying a mortgage. Honest people have stated right on this blog that if they sold everything they had, they might come close to breaking even. You’re in that same insolvent cesspool.

And no….. Suze Orman isn’t speaking out of context nor am I reframing the context. “Debt is slavery” is her primary and fundamental point. Further, she advises against buying ANY housing if the price doesn’t pencil out. You seem to avoid that point.

Why is that?

“DC-area inside joke”

The DC-area is a joke.

The train part of my MARC commute is ~55 min in the AM, ~46 min in the PM. I walk from Union Station to work, about a dozen blocks. On the train I either do billable things or read for enjoyment, listening to music throughout.

My bike ride in AM or PM could be short (10 min) but I do a workout in the AM and PM, around the inner harbor promenade or through Patterson park. The loop I’ve been doing gets me to about 13-14 miles of biking a day. If it’s raining I’ll sometimes let my wife drop me at the station and I miss my biking that day–but lately thanks to MMM I have biked every day, evening rainy days, thanks to his tips.

realtors are liars

Considering the amount of advertising revenue our papers and television and radio stations collect from Realtors, we would never report that.

Wait, so Rio is a conservative who’s pretending to be a liberal? C’mon, no self-respecting conservative would stoop that low.

Or is Rio is pretending to be a businessman but he’s really a liberal mole being paid to link to liberal articles and sway opinion? If so, he’s doing a p!**-poor job. He’s only linked to a few articles so far. The rest of his posts used stuff like logic, which take too much time to compose and are proven NOT to sway conservative opinion anyway. As a mole, he’s so inefficient and ineffective that even the libs would have fired him by now.

Or do you have swome clue what he is?

No, Rio is sitting in the basement of the White House being paid by the Liar in Chief to try and f-up blogs like this one.

‘he’s doing a p!**-poor job’

See, we find common ground all the time here.

The rest of his posts used stuff like logic, which take too much time to compose and are proven NOT to sway conservative opinion anyway.

As you say, logic does not sway most conservative opinion although I have before. Logic usually only sways intelligent, objective people in the middle. They are the ones who matter in the great debates of our time.

The cranks who try to attack me with intellectual nothing here are only my foils and a few can be as fun as a yo-yo.

Like the “logic” of pretending to be a high net worth individual who is searching to get some of that Messiahcare. Or the logic of claiming something is the law of the land that can be enforced or not enforced on fiat from the Messiah. You are a fraud shilling for a fraud.

If you want your mango, you can keep your mango.

Like the “logic” of pretending to be a high net worth individual who is searching to get some of that Messiahcare.

Straw is a tj, HA Troll.

You are getting more delusional every post.

Facts are facts. A fact cannot be delusional. What could possibly be delusional about the following facts:

1. For 30 years the trend in America was to implement supply-side, trickle-down policies to funnel more money to the rich while opening our markets by cutting import duties and at the same time deregulating markets important to America’s stability and standing.

2. While at the same time, cut the taxes for the rich.

3. Under the promise that “a rising tide would lift all boats” -trickle-down.

4. As expected, the rich got much richer while their taxes were cut.

5. But unlike what was promised to the rest of us for 30 years, the poor stayed poor and the Middle-class jobs base has been demolished by the above, mostly vodoo Reaganomic type policies.

Now these are facts. To ignore any and all of them is delusional no matter what meds you are on yourself- but these facts in our history are not a delusion.

Rio,
All 5 of your facts are correct. However, the imbalances would have been corrected by the simple non-action of not implementing the bailouts. Somehow, that “regulation”, which Bush implemented and Obama blessed - in order to avoid the dreaded Depression/Armageddon - was ok with you and other Democrats.

There is no doubting that the bailouts happened, and saved the rich over everyone else. To ignore this fact is also delusional.

the imbalances would have been corrected by the simple non-action of not implementing the bailouts.

No way. Put a dent, yes. Corrected? No way.

Somehow, that “regulation”, which Bush implemented and Obama blessed - in order to avoid the dreaded Depression/Armageddon - was ok with you and other Democrats.

It was NOT ok with me and many Dems. To ignore this fact is delusional.

The Census data includes high school sophomores who flip burgers in the summer, and retirees in addition to the 1% and folks trying to raise a family on a minimum wage job.

Great point, RW. I wonder what the data would look like for only those over 25yrs old.

Don’t you mean half of all Americans over the age of 15 with any income?

I mean half of Americans don’t make squat and wealth/income inequality is off the charts. Why? Because of 30 years following Reaganomics. Dems included.

@PIC:

Ideally, I’d like to see the data include people over 25, but exclude people who self-identify as “retired”. My parents are able bodied and could work, but are retired. They would show up in the data because they have income (from investments, etc.). They shouldn’t show up in the data.

However, a 68 year old who isn’t as fortunate as my parents (who don’t need to work), and is working as a greeter at WalMart should be included.

The stat that is most applicable to how the “median” worker is doing is the median hourly wage.

The data shows that real median wages have at best been approximately flat since 1973 (from a graph I found)–up less than 10% in real terms since 1973.

In the meantime wages for those in the 80th percentile and greater have gone up by more than 20% on real terms over that roughly 30 year period.

If that were true, you’d have gotten it over with and disclosed how much you paid per square foot.

Because they haven’t progressed much past middle school emotionally. They still think that calling men (Rio and Joe) either female or gay is funny and/or a valid repudiation of their words.

+1 Polly…

The repudiation happened long ago. They’re nothing more than caricatures.

Pardon me, HA. So you believe that there is no need to contradict the substance of what they say since you have already done it. Got it.

Amy, in HA’s case he is doing it just because he thinks that calling men female or gay is funny or perhaps because it makes him feel more masculine, not because he thinks it advances his argument.

Yep…

It’s already been done. Over and over again.

Want a cracker now?

I will accept partial blame for Rio being referred to as “Brazilian tranny.” When I asked he/she what their gender was (because supposedly they were on a Rio webcam) they refused to answer, which I found kind of odd. Anyway, I said “I’ll just go with transgender.” It was not meant to disparage Rio, or any transgender individual. I really meant it as “well, I’ll just cover all bases and go with transgender.” Later in another thread when somebody was talking about transmissions, I said that we had a “Brazilian tranny” on this blog. In hindsight it was in poor taste, and for that I apologize. I agree with Polly here.

I think Joe outdated himself by naming who in Washington are closet gay. How would you know, right?

Also what’s left to say about his love for anything Brony……

Don’t know about Tranny stuff.

By virtue of the fact Lola flailed desperately at the mere suggestion of posting a picture of his hand with the ocean in the background tells you all you need to know.

stupid smart phone.

outdated = outed

I think Joe outdated himself by naming who in Washington are closet gay.

That doesn’t mean squat. And who cares. I don’t give a damn if HA, tj or Straw or you are as gay as a goose, black, white or Irish. It neither validates or invalidates any of your points when you ever come close to any good ones. And me being a dude neither validates or invalidates my points which is why I don’t bring it up much. But it matters to some. IMO, HA shows gross disrespect for women - anger. And many people who are homophobes and who use gay slurs are mad because they have gay feelings. I feel sorry for them for disliking themselves but it does not excuse them from being homophobes. They need to get over it. It’s 2013 people. Take your Repub bigotry to a Repub site.

Homophobic? Maybe You’re Gay

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/opinion/sunday/homophobic-maybe-youre-gay.html?_r=0

…….One theory is that homosexual urges, when repressed out of shame or fear, can be expressed as homophobia. Freud famously called this process a “reaction formation” — the angry battle against the outward symbol of feelings that are inwardly being stifled. Even Mr. Haggard seemed to endorse this idea when, apologizing after his scandal for his anti-gay rhetoric, he said, “I think I was partially so vehement because of my own war.”

It’s a compelling theory — and now there is scientific reason to believe it. In this month’s issue of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, we and our fellow researchers provide empirical evidence that homophobia can result, at least in part, from the suppression of same-sex desire.

the fact Lola flailed desperately at the mere suggestion of posting a picture of his hand with the ocean in the background tells you all you need to know.

That you are one strange bird - and warped HA? “My hand”? I read that 3 times. It has to be one of the dumbest things you’ve said in awhile and that’s hard for you to do..

The reason I didn’t do it is because I have 0 respect for you HA. To do so would be to show that I care what you think.

“IMO”

In case you haven’t noticed, nobody here cares about your opinion anymore Lola.

nobody here cares about your opinion anymore

I believe that about as much as I believe you are happy at home, and have a happy successful life HA.

My “opinions” are lucid, fall within mainstream American opinion, and written well enough to disturb the crap out right-wing outliers.

wuff wuff!

Stand by your delusion Lola.

Facts from Freakoutnation and Politicususa. The past 30 years included 12 years of democrats and also the current mouthpiece in chief.

His name is Elmer J. Fudd. He owns a mansion and a yacht.

The past 30 years included 12 years of democrats

The Democrats were DINOs-Clinton too economically. And following the failed trickle-down policies initiated by Reagan.

Facts from Freakoutnation and Politicususa.

But facts are facts. You are engaged in a lazy, Jr. High type Genetic fallacy which scores no points in debate. I think you are a Straw/tj/HA troll.

The genetic fallacy, also known as fallacy of origins, fallacy of virtue,[1] is a fallacy of irrelevance where a conclusion is suggested based solely on something or someone’s origin rather than its current meaning or context. This overlooks any difference to be found in the present situation, typically transferring the positive or negative esteem from the earlier context.

The fallacy therefore fails to assess the claim on its merit. The first criterion of a good argument is that the premises must have bearing on the truth or falsity of the claim in question.[2]

Lola,

You yammer about facts yet your posts are fact-free.

Voice of reason eh? C’mon Lola…. have a little self-respect.

Good thing your Messiah has changed all that and put people back to work.

My point is not to just show that your “facts” are wrong because of where they come from, but also to point out that you are a Lieb shill who gets his news from far leftist sources, thus discrediting you. It has worked cause you are the first man/woman to cry a river when someone posts something that originates on Drudge.

Your faulty logic, unbelievable claims, and lies will henceforth be deemed the Mangoo fallacy.

you are as gay as a goose, black, white or Irish

Irish? Have I missed a bunch of jokes?

Irish? Have I missed a bunch of jokes?

Blazing Saddles. (Unedited)

We took the Los Angeles subway to The Hollywood Christmas Parade last night.
People in the crowd were asking us about getting out of the parking lots, where detours were for closed off streets and inside we were chuckling. We just walked 2 blocks to the subway station, and we were out of there.

True, you are surrounded by some strange ducks taking public transportation, but they “ain’t misbehaving” and there is metro police presence. It’s just practical.

We like the subway.

Polly
I hear you about the late night walking thing. 10:00PM is our usual cut off as well.

Just found out last night, a subway station
is across from The Pantages Theatre. We love that venue, but avoided it do to traffic and parking.

In DC, the problem isn’t the five blocks from the metro stop to the office in the morning; it’s the five miles from the metro stop to the house at night. Metro is a radial spoke system. The farther out you go, the farther apart the stations are. By the time you drive or bus to a station and take the subway, the fares and parking add up to where driving isn’t much more expensive, and the time is the same.

I have no problem being out and about and using public transportation at 10 PM and later, but if I had to trek all the way back to my office to pick up a car at that hour, I might have to take a cab to do it. It would make the outings more expensive and I wouldn’t do as many of them. Or I would have to move the car before the event and find parking which is often either annoying or expensive. But as long as the venue is close to a metro stop or a bus line that I know pretty well, I have no issues. I also don’t get the people who refuse to walk around anywhere after dark even when sunset is as early as it is now. Very dull.

Oxide,

Living 5 miles from a station doesn’t prevent people from doing stuff near their office after work. It is being locked into driving home with a car parked near the office. (Plus not caring about cultural events/going out and going home to supervise homework and take care of the kids.)

I’m pretty sure that I know where you work at this point. It is outside the Beltway, right? I know you are in this area because this is where you could get a good, stable job, but being so close to a world class city and not taking advantage of it regularly is sad. I love being in the city at the end of the day. There is so much to do. This week? Rosanne Cash concert at the Library of Congress and National Christmas Tree lighting. Total cost? $4 (for ticketmaster fees for the concert ticket which was free).

Federal employees working in DC = they have a good position in an agency and they are likely to be career employees. In their peak earning years they still aren’t flashing big cash except at the very very top (which are connected political people anyway). They’re not jumping houses every few years, they are turning down the boom/bust cycle of contractor jobs in favor of seniority/stability, etc. You don’t see many low-level feds working in DC itself, the vast majority have worked or are working their way up the federal experience ladder.

And again, the fed employees are dwarfed by the number of contractors and lawyers/lobbyists. The prices on the high price homes are set by the 200k missile programmer or NSA contrator, not the 120k IRS auditing supervisor or FDA policy counsel.

And they’re underwater.

Sheesh, that’s the starting salary AFTER all the free education and training. Go ahead and pizz on it if you want. Looks pretty good to me. I think it beats hell out of the military, at least she doesn’t have to worry about getting a limb blown off or ending up as a vegetable or in a body bag. That’s a heck of an upside. She won’t have to go into debt for nursing school, either.

Lots of kids from flyover would kill for that. And for this particular opportunity they wouldn’t even be required to.

Jose,

I didn’t mean to pizz on your post and I’m sorry. I agree that there should be more emphasis on stuff like this, training for something other than being an office drone. Dads are faced with providing tough answers today, especially with college being what it is.

Which is why I posted this alternative.

“And no decent jobs…Happens a lot…Going into the military for many after High School is not a matter of choice…Its a matter of “No Choice”…”

I also signed up for the military when the early seventies economy offered little; terrible timing in life.

Which is why I posted this alternative.

This has been the German way for a long time. My wife is German and she said that pretty much all non-professional jobs had apprenticeships in Germany, at least when she lived there. If you don’t go to the “Gymnasium” (college prep school) that you typically end up in an apprenticeship.

In German culture there is a strong emphasis on doing things “the right way”. Do it right, or don’t do it at all. There is no “git ‘er done” in Germany. Hence the importance of apprenticeship.

I really doubt that Corporate America, which only focuses on next quarter’s numbers, would ever pick up the apprenticeship model because “it costs money” and cutting costs is what Corporate America is all about. Corporate America expects all new hires to hit the ground running and to be responsible for their own ongoing training (on their own time and money).

I dunno, according to the article, there are a couple of American corps on board with this, at least in that area of the country.

I don’t think you can paint all American corps with the same brush. There are always exceptions.

Anyway, my point was, this program exists and it might work for some of the fathers and mothers on this blog who have a concern about employement for the children.

And, when I wuz a pup, my mother worked for an American ad agency (which has now been absorbed into a behemoth conglomerate) that was VERY good to their employees. She often said that if it weren’t for them, she wouldn’t have been able to have children and raise a family. But things were different back then.

I don’t think you can paint all American corps with the same brush.

Few things would make me happier than to see a widespread change in attitude in this country, and it’s nice that a handful of companies are seeing the light. But it isn’t the trend, not by a long shot. Like I said, the overwhelming majority of employers expect you to hit the ground running on your first day on the job.

“I really doubt that Corporate America, which only focuses on next quarter’s numbers, would ever pick up the apprenticeship model because “it costs money” and cutting costs is what Corporate America is all about. Corporate America expects all new hires to hit the ground running and to be responsible for their own ongoing training (on their own time and money).”

Sorry, It’s the government schools/universities industrial complex indoctrinating the public with the notion “go to college or become a ditch digger”. Follow the real money trail.

And, when I wuz a pup, … things were different back then.

Yes. And it was during that time frame that corporate success started being measured by quarterly numbers and not by the quantity/quality of employees. That’s what the well-timed movie Wall Street was about. Corporations still on the old model of treating employees well were sitting ducks for profit-mongers like Gordon Gekko.

Sorry, It’s the government schools/universities industrial complex indoctrinating the public with the notion “go to college or become a ditch digger”

That is a whole, separate problem.

If you want to learn a trade in the US, employers expect you to pay to train yourself. No way are they going to hire and train you.

Lola’s offering internships in catfishing to all the orphans of the Rio slums.

The Washington Post is on the approved list of “real journalists”

As to your screeching comments about commie pinko whatever,

Donkeys don’t screech. They do this;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SReQ6XNhB_E

I hope you did not take my response to oxide as flaming on you Palmy…The fact is Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse who happens to be what many here on the board consider to be Libralls…Strong Unions…HealthCare for all…Etc…

Take unions for example…I am not against unions…In fact I think they can be quite beneficial…Unions are very strong here in our valley…My brother is a retired union plumber and enjoys a modest pension check & 401k…Where I draw the line is unions in the public sector…

So; Am I a LiBrall or a Conservative ?

My main purpose in posting this was to demonstrate that there IS an alternative to debt and the military.

Of course there are alternatives. But just because they exist doesn’t mean that Corporate America will get on board with them.

So, sure, if one is fortunate enough to get into an apprenticeship program with a German firm in the US, I say go for it. Problem is, those opportunities will be few and far between.

How good would German’s manufacturing machine be if they still had the Deutsche Mark instead of the Euro?

They benefit HUGELY from the weaker countries in the Eurozone (which drives down the value of the Euro, and strengthens their ability to export).

Saying that the same policies would have the same effect in the US is completely missing this fact.

Now, I’m all for apprentice programs. I think we under-invest in trade skills in the US in a big way.

The fourth German Empire. They finally got it right… and won.

Also, I think that the German model wouldn’t work in bootstrapping America … as Americans we have been trained to game the system and not work with it.

“because they have the attitude that we’re in this together>/i>

No thats YOUR attitude and everyone else like you who don’t have two dimes to rub together.

Transferring gains in productivity to workers via wage increases is THEFT from the producers.

All in on stocks? Not even remotely close. However, the all-in process will ramp up and occur very quickly.

To the contrary. You better be in cash.

That’s a stretch.

Current rental rate/sq ft is 72 cents. A 1900 sq ft house in vegas pencils out to 74 cents/sq based on recent median transaction prices +taxes + losses to depreciation.

Now that prices have resumed falling in Vegas, are you willing to take those losses?

No. So I sit and wait.

It’s that time again…every three months. PM’s pimply minion is visiting me on Friday to give the thumbs up or down on how well I’m keeping my overpriced rental. If a see a white glove, he’s going to lose that hand.

Distort reality? I presented facts. It seems you have some personal agenda in this matter.

Ben, why the reluctance to offer someone your advice based upon your vast experience? It’s a cop out to say this is not a buy or rent blog. All I read on this blog from people such as H.A. is buying a house is akin to committing suicide and a guaranteed way to lose money. As you say, the advice is free and will be treated as such.

The city is Parkland, Florida.

Yet the question still remains. Do either you or Ben own the house you presently reside in?

Lying about reality is seems to be your personal agenda…… Say….. Why use an alternate username?

It’s a cop out to say this is not a buy or rent blog.

Seems like there are many points of view on the blog:

• Renters, defending their decisions.
• New buyers defending their decisions.
• Landlords advocating renting.
• FIRE sector workers advocating buying.
• Other interested parties in the bubble phenomenon.
• Interested parties in miscellaneous financial and political discussions which occur here.
• Miscellaneous others.

Personally, housing doesn’t seem to be the path to riches it was sold as during the bubble. If it makes lifestyle and economic sense for a person to buy, then he should buy. If someone wants to build their net worth a bit more before buying, then they should probably rent.

H.A., why the personal attacks? Are you not capable of having an adult discussion without accusing someone of lying. In regards to an alternate username, I do not post here under any other name, which Ben can attest to as I am sure he has access to the IP address. You asked for my location, which I provided.

So let’s address the facts I presented which you claim are lies and distortions. Housing prices in my area have appreciated over the last 12-24 months anywhere from 20-30%- forget the reason why. Rents for the past 2 years have also been raised about 10% annually. Presently renting at $2750 a month- paying for pool and lawn of another $150 a month. Comparable houses to the one I am renting- 4br/3bath 2600sq ft, gated community with a pool are renting anywhere from $3000-$4000 a month. Homes are in the $400-600k range.Homeowner insurance is about $4000 annually. Taxes 1.75% Unless you have empirical evidence to support prices falling back another 20%, I’d like to see a logical argument as to why continued renting is a better choice given the circumstances.

Let’s see if you are capable of anything constructive other than ad hominem attacks.

Still waiting for an answer from you and Ben about your status - rentors or owners?

This isn’t about me fraudster so don’t make it about me. It’s all about you.

Voice of REASON, just ignore HA. He’s trying to imply that you are someone else (maybe even me).

I spoke with a guy a while back who was buying homes in FL to rent, and I cautioned on the massive amount of homes in the foreclosure process there, and what impact they might have on housing in the event foreclosures picked up.

Is there such a foreclosure backlog in Parkland? How easy is it to develop new homes? If you were to buy, will you be substantially reliant on debt (ie. have a small down payment, and need low interest rates to make it work)?

My personal opinion is that these things tend to work in cycles…I’m rarely a believer in a paradigm shift (as many are stating that there is a paradigm shift to being a renter society), especially when it comes to personal attitudes. I suspect that in many markets, strong home price growth will lead to increased development, healing credit markets will lead to renters going back to being buyers, in greater numbers, putting downward pressure (or at least less upward pressure) on rents, etc., and we will cycle down again. That 10% rental rate growth won’t go on forever, nor will home price appreciation.

I think it makes sense to bide your time, and only buy when you find a place that you want to live in for a long time.

Disclosure: I currently own (subject to a mortgage)…it was my first house after renting for a long time.

Kind of like your magic paradigm shift suggesting massively inflated housing prices is the norm?

Gotcha.

So your advice is to continue renting, paying almost $3000 a month to rent, knowing the price of rentals is going up 10% a year

He lost me at “we pay almost $3000/mo for rent”…

I have friends on Martha’s Vineyard who rent a modern, 4 bedroom house for $2500/mo year round there. If they were to buy that same house, it would cost $700,000. They literally aren’t making any more land on the island and development costs are astronomical… Can you do simple math? At 120x rent, the house isn’t worth any more than $300,000. So, do you want to be the cat holding the bag when that $700k house becomes a $300k house? Is your local housing market literally an island, with high development costs, high fees and limited available land?

I call BS…

“I have friends on Martha’s Vineyard who rent a modern, 4 bedroom house for $2500/mo year round there. If they were to buy that same house, it would cost $700,000.”

That sounds exactly like San Jose, CA. It’s amazing that people there, even professionals, can’t seem to “see” the disconnect.

I understand you think I’m some troll, but that is not the case. As stated, I ran two blogs for years that were critical of the r/e bubble. The difference is I’m not stuck in 2006 clinging onto the same meme. I suspect you are of the opinion Casey Serin is still going to jail as well. Are you entrenched in your thought process that you are unwilling to have an adult discussion that differs from yours?

Why the reluctance to answer a simply question though Ben? Do you rent or own where you live?

The difference is I’m not stuck in 2006 clinging onto the same meme. I suspect you are of the opinion Casey Serin is still going to jail as well. Are you entrenched in your thought process that you are unwilling to have an adult discussion that differs from yours?

Sounds to me like you’ve decided we had our housing correction and now it’s happy times are here again. Just follow Ben’s advice above on leveraging up in Real Estate and you’ll be on easy street.

Hmm, being in Florida, what have flood insurance rates done since the FEMA maps were redrawn? Here in the Northeast, I’ve heard of cases where a homeowner’s flood insurance goes from $3000/yr to $15000/yr, killing any chance of selling that house to anyone needing a mortgage.

Now, want to talk about a real bubble: how about dat stock market…

“Now, want to talk about a real bubble: how about dat stock market…”

WTF? I just read a story, linked from here, where Alan “Magoo” Greenspan said that stocks were not over valued. Heck, I was seriously thinking about selling my paid-off house and going “all-in” on financial and tech shares. I’m certain that these CEOs put their share holders first!

And prices are falling in FL too. For obvious reasons.

Yesterday I said nobody cares about Obamacare any more.

With all due respect, I think a lot care, care so much that a few posters go postal and get freaky when I well defend it. I think I logged onto 10 straight anti-ACA posts the other day. But I can talk about it less, but I hope the very angry farrr-right here does too.

And I don’t even come close to “loving” Obama. But the alternative is very, very scary imo.

You do love Obama. Tell me 3 things you don’t like about him.

I had this friend who was gay and way out of the closet. He told me over lunch one day about how when he was younger in high school or after, before he came out, he used to have crushes on straight guys who he could never get. He’d get all worked up thinking about them, only to be disappointed and sad because it could never be. He said that the odd part was because this cycle had happened so often to him during his formative years, he came to associate that sort of sad longing for something he couldn’t have with liking someone and when that feeling wasn’t there he didn’t quite feel in love.

I think that is how you feel about Obama. Don’t trust your instinct, we all know you are in love.

You do love Obama. Tell me 3 things you don’t like about him.

I could tell you more than three but I don’t respect you enough to care.

Lola,

You don’t have any self-respect either.

Ah then stay in cash! LOL! I betcha you’ve been in cash since March 2 2009!

HAHAHAHAHA!