December 11, 2013

Bits Bucket for December 11, 2013

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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227 Comments »

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 02:25:52

realtors are liars

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:31:24

“North Jersey realtor Tom Beritelli charged with having child porn”

http://www.examiner.com/article/north-jersey-realtor-tom-beritelli-charged-with-having-child-porn

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 07:42:29

That’s just good old fashioned National Association of Realtors family values :)

 
Comment by AZGolfer
2013-12-11 14:29:39

HA

Where do you live? I have a really nice house for rent in Peoria, AZ for $1150 per month.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 17:10:06

And that one is a loss too.

How are things DebtDonkey?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:33:56

“Arlington County Realtor Burglarizes Clients Homes CAUGHT ON CAMERA!!!”

http://youtu.be/uR3ySw8m9Dg

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 06:45:18

Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:51:47

Living in your head rent free sure does.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-11 06:53:25

I can see someone may feel little restricted in an apartment, how about living in a rented house?

Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 07:04:10

Paying rent means it will never be a real home. When you pay a mortgage you are committing to your community, establishing roots, and making a real home.

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Comment by tj
2013-12-11 07:10:27

Paying rent means it will never be a real home.

property taxes mean that you never really own your home.

When you pay a mortgage you are committing to your community,

no, you’re committing to a bank. what happens if you get sick or lose your job and your home is now worthless than the principle.

establishing roots, and making a real home.

and why can’t this be done by renting?

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 07:12:08

worthless = worth less

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:14:40

Worthless housing. Worthless worthless housing. It’s worth less and less with each passing day.

 
Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 07:15:11

Yeah snap up one of those $575000 South Park condos like the lady did in the other thread.

It will feel like a home. You will feel wonderfully trapped by a millstone around your neck, no chance to change jobs or move, and that sinking feeling of being deeper and deeper underwater every month.

Who here knows or remembers that feeling?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:26:31

“Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, always. Your losses are magnified tremendously if you finance it.”

BINGO

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 08:56:03

Rent for thirty years and you’ll have nothing to show for it but an empty bank account. Buy a home, build equity with every mortgage payment, get to deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes, and after thirty years have a paid off home that is the foundation of a secure retirement.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:01:09

“If you have to borrow for 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

You better believe it Mister.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-12-11 09:38:03

HA
Regardless of the length of a mortgage, most folks need to leverage to buy a home. This is our 3rd home, and the only one we bought mortgage free.

Isn’t rent technically leverage on future earnings as well?

And the poster who mentioned the property taxes prove you never really own, I beg to differ with all due respect. When you buy a car, you pay an annual tax (registration) on it, until you get rid of it.

Taxes are inevitable.
Tim Hawkins- “The Govt Can” song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO2eh6f5Go0

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:46:36

And you overpaid by 250%.

Is leslie applton Yun a liar?

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 10:11:38

And the poster who mentioned the property taxes prove you never really own, I beg to differ with all due respect.

stop paying your property taxes and find out how long you can stay in the home you ‘own’.

When you buy a car, you pay an annual tax (registration) on it, until you get rid of it.

this shows you don’t understand the problem. if you stop driving your car, you can stop paying the registration. you will still own it. not so for property taxes. stop paying your property taxes and you’ll be on the street. doesn’t matter if you paid your home off free and clear.

in n. dakota some people lost homes that had been in their families for generations because of property taxes. it sparked a bill to end all property taxes in the state, but it was defeated.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-12-11 10:42:34

Rent for thirty years and you’ll have nothing to show for it but an empty bank account.

If your bank account is empty after 30 years of paying less, whose fault is that?

 
Comment by Janet Felon
2013-12-11 12:52:59

“And the poster who mentioned the property taxes prove you never really own, I beg to differ with all due respect.”

Huh? I mean, whaaaaa? This is just nuts. Did you, perhaps, have a little Kahlua with your coffee this morning?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 12:56:55

And worse yet, massive losses are built in at current asking prices.

Why do you think everyonesunderwater the minute they make the error of signing up for 15 or 30 years of debt slavery?

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2013-12-11 13:10:30

For spaghetti monsters sake, what value do I get from “committing to a community?” NONE

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 13:21:03

lolz

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 13:28:23

Bill, when you outgrow your drifter ways and buy a home, you will feel a sense of belonging that all your money in the bank could never buy. Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 13:40:42

Bill, when your debt outgrows your principal, you will feel a sense of owing, that all your money in the bank could never repay. Living in a rental will never sink you like a real home.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 14:34:12

Hey, keep on renting everybody. In 30-years, you will have a nice box of receipts. I will have a property which is completely debt free.

Works for me. You cannot rent without a property owner. Glad renting works for you.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 15:22:09

Whos saying rent for 30 years JingleBalls?

You’re losses are yours. Carry on.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-12-11 15:43:35

In Ca you have 5 years to remedy a tax lien, so homes seldom go to auction. Rent or title to a property, everyone pays property tax. LLs don’t rent out at a lost (usually).

Janet-
You can agree to disagree with class.
Be a lady, not an itch with a “b”.

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 15:54:38

In Ca you have 5 years to remedy a tax lien, so homes seldom go to auction. Rent or title to a property, everyone pays property tax. LLs don’t rent out at a lost (usually).

none of which counters the point that you don’t really own your home. when you own something, no one is allowed to take it from you.

janet felon.. one of the best handles on this blog.

 
 
 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 07:01:16

karma is hurting you amy.

you’re only here to advertise.

Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 19:34:35

I think I agree it is Hoaxide.

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Comment by Dude Guy
2013-12-11 20:15:41

Amy = HA arguing with himself, to get attention

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Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 14:42:14

Amy has a point. If you borrower $100,000 at 5%, approximately 1/2 of your payment goes to principal reduction over the 30-years. Add in the tax benefits, the potential for appreciation and you have a winner. Even if rent is 30% cheaper now, in 30 years a renter has a box of receipts and ever higher rent.

A homeowner has a free and clear home.

No brainer….except for a Burdbrain…HA.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 20:55:37

No JingleBalls….

Houses aren’t $100k. They’re $400k and you’ll pay the bank $800k and you haven’t even turned the lights on or paid the taxes. Renting it for 30 years you’ll pay a mere $300k total.

Remember….. cash flow is negative at current asking prices of resale housing.

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Comment by the Drudge Reporter
2013-12-11 03:02:02

Barack Hussein Obama

Need I say more?

Comment by phony scandals
2013-12-11 04:40:29

“Need I say more?”

Yopu don’t need to but you could.

Moochelle looks pretty pissed as Barry snaps a selfie with the Danish PM hottie. He’s gonna have to like have Paris open their stores on Sunday again to get out of this.

David Cameron and Barack Obama pose for selfie with Danish PM …
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/10/nelson-mandela-world-leaders-selfie - - Cached - Similar pages

Michelle Obama enjoys Paris privilege barred to millions in France: Sunday shopping

By Linda Hervieux
Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 1:45 PM

PARIS - Michelle Obama and her girls enjoyed a special Sunday shopping trip in Paris this month thanks to friends in high places who bent France’s Sunday store-closing rules.

President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday that calls were made to open a swanky children’s boutique, usually closed by law on Sundays, where the First Lady and her two daughters perused racks of $200 summer dresses and $100 sweaters.

“Is it normal that on a Sunday when Madame Obama wants to go to the Paris shops with her daughters, that I have to make phone calls to have them open?” said Sarkozy, who is pushing to change the law.

“Who is going to explain to them why France is the only country where shops are closed on Sundays?”

It was actually the U.S. Embassy that arranged for opening of the shop, Bonpoint, a store spokeswoman said.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/michelle-obama-enjoys-paris-privilege-barred-millions-france-sunday-shopping-article-1.379302 - -

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 06:04:01

She should buy her clothes at Dollar General like Nancy Reagan did.

 
Comment by oxide
2013-12-11 06:43:11

Considering that the POTUS is laughing at a funeral, I can’t blame Michelle for being upset.

Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 06:49:22

You are allowed to laugh at funerals for anybody that lives into their 90s or older. The PC police approved of that back during the purge.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 06:59:45

It was an Irish wake and he is black Irish. JK.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-12-11 17:27:40

My father’s father’s funeral was a veritable party. LOTS of laughter. And it wasn’t even a wake.

 
Comment by jane
2013-12-11 19:32:30

Slim, I’ve been spotty in attendance here, so sorry I am not sending my regrets in more timely manner. Please accept my sympathy on your father’s passing. He made a wonderful daughter - think how proud you made him! And think of the heritage he gave you, in flexible thinking and courage. Is your mother doing OK? Best, Jane

 
 
Comment by NH Hick
2013-12-11 13:13:19

No the POTUS is showing himself as being the ASS that he really is.

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Comment by phony scandals
2013-12-11 17:02:00

I don’t think Michelle was upset about her husband laughing at a funeral, I think she was upset because he was obviously smitten with the Danish PM hottie.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2013-12-11 17:10:27

That’s definitely how it looked to me from the body language.

 
 
 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2013-12-11 05:39:01

I am happy for him. From the looks of things, he has found his calling and a home where he will be suitably adored and honored by throngs of people, every day. Perhaps he will abdicated the throne and replace Zuma.

Comment by samk
2013-12-11 06:37:36

Denmark?

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2013-12-11 06:41:56

Why doesn’t he take over Afghanistan, i thought the Taliban loved him…oh wait moo would look good in a burka

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 04:50:15

“what we’re talkin about here is
it’s a heartland feeling
mellencamp, you know, kind of a mellen feeling
a heartland folk singer
john cougar mellencamp, bruce springsteen, bob seger
that type of feel, a mellen feeling
real, powerful, approving music
of a heartland quality
just powerful straight-forward music
and if you can’t get just the right type of feeling
find someone who will pass and change them”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dyz2O6SLhVQ

Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
 
Comment by tom cruz bustamante
2013-12-11 05:03:25

Is it global warming yet?

Comment by the Drudge Reporter
2013-12-11 05:46:41

Brrr it’s cold outside.

Now click on some links and view some ads so I can get paid.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:11:30

Temperature in Woonsocket, RI cratered last night. It was a whopping 9deg F at 5am this morning.

Comment by rms
2013-12-11 09:07:55

We’re warming up now, 17-degrees this morning. Typical winter day around here is 25-degrees, should be there next week.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:10:26

I’m dreaming of a white Christmas palm trees and coconuts.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-12-11 10:17:00

The urban legend is that “White Christmas” was written by Irving Berlin during a summer heat wave in the LR of his Beverly Hills home.

IIRC, he had both east and west coast homes, and his family was back east at the time.

 
Comment by Pete
2013-12-11 18:25:16

“The urban legend is that “White Christmas” was written by Irving Berlin during a summer heat wave in the LR of his Beverly Hills home.”

Gordon Lightfoot said he wrote “Song for a Winter’s Night” in some Cleveland hotel on a 100 degree-plus evening. I never would have guessed.

 
 
 
 
Comment by samk
2013-12-11 06:00:03

Global Warming is so March. Now it’s Global Cooling. I expect we’ll be back to Global Warming in April, though.

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-12-11 10:45:24

Stop being hemispherist…

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:24:52

Too many research grants are invested in global warming for global cooling to ever happen.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 09:59:02

Al Gore is getting no love: http://www.theclimatebet.com/

 
 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-12-11 17:19:32

Global warming once bit my sister.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:02:51

If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.

“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013

Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 06:51:52

Hope and Change

“Home Depot Inc, the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, predicted it will meet a long-term profitability goal a year earlier than planned as rising housing prices prompt an increase in renovations.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-11/home-depot-expects-to-meet-2015-margin-goal-a-year-early.html

Comment by azdude02
2013-12-11 07:29:56

the recovery is real and right on course. Got equity?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:33:56

Equity is a fallacy…. It doesn’t exist.

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 07:35:39

Peyton threw about $10K of equity my way last Sunday.

After we win the superbowl, I’m cashing in and buying the squadette some new t*ts.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:51:04

Don’t forget the cell phone pics after they’re healed up.

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Comment by inchbyinch
2013-12-11 10:20:32

Quick healing time. It’s the lift that takes the time to heal. I’ve done the combo and then just the “remodel”.

Don’t let her lift anything for a few days. Don’t let her go too big. They look weird.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 11:44:01

A realtor advising as a plastic surgeon……. It doesn’t get better than that.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 15:21:04

Do they leave a carbon t*t print? How big?

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2013-12-11 11:31:11
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Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 06:56:53

Wasn’t a budget deal reached averting the need for a government shutdown in January?

I thought someone said another shutdown was guaranteed?

Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 07:02:50

Mr. Ryan, at a joint news conference with Sen. Patty Murray, Washington Democrat, said the spending plan calls for reducing the deficit by $23 billion over 10 years without raising taxes.

And people wonder why the Republican Party is splitting in two. Seriously 23 billion over 10 years. The masters in DC have abandoned all pretense of any fiscal restraint.

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 07:23:03

This deal cancels the sequester cuts to the Pentagon.

No government contractor left behind!

Comment by Martin
2013-12-11 08:06:57

This deal cancels the sequester cuts to the Pentagon.

And it increases certainty of Fed taper. It is definite wither Dec or Jan ending the whole printing business by June 2014.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:24:04
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:37:19

The proposal also caps the amount the government can reimburse contractors for executive compensation at $487,000. The current cap is more than $900,000

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-12-11 17:24:47

Some executives are going to be upset that their hard earned fruits of capitalism were restricted by the goddam commie government.

 
 
Comment by Hi-Z
2013-12-11 11:47:30

Not true at all. The plan reduces a minority portion of the sequester cuts for the Pentagon. Use facts, not spin.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:07:58

Dec. 11, 2013, 6:01 a.m. EST
Central banks will move goal posts to keep QE forever
In my opinion: It’s never the right time to stop printing money
By Matthew Lynn
Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney insists he’ll stop printing money soon. No, really, he means it. Honest.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Forget the reforms in China, whether the euro survives, or whether Apple ever gets around to launching that incredibly expensive watch that sends e-mails, plays games, and possibly even tells you what time it is.

Right now, there is only one thing that really matters to the markets. And that is whether central banks will continue with quantitative easing and stick with interest rates at three-century lows — and if not, when they will stop printing money and get rates back to something close to normal levels.

In the U.K., rates were meant to start going up when the unemployment rate dropped to 7%. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve targeted a 6.5% jobless rate. But now the Bank of England is looking at rising real wages as a potential trigger for rates to get back to normal, while the Fed is discussing shifting its target from 6.5% unemployment to 6% or else when an inflation floor has been hit.

The reality is, they will keep moving the goal posts. Once you slash interest rates to zero, and start printing money, it is impossible to stop without doing huge damage to the economy. QE and zero rates are going to be around for a lot longer than most investors have yet realized. The only historical experience we have of this kind of extreme monetary policy is Japan — and it tells us it carries on for two decades and perhaps longer.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 07:09:31

A story about China and bitcoin. Two of our favorite topics in one article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/us-china-bitcoin-idUSBRE9BA0B020131211

PS, that part about false invoicing probably explains how the Chinese are scooping up the property in Cali.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-12-11 17:28:13

They’re gonna buy the whole damn country with counterfeit electronic money, and kick us out. It’s just like the indians trading their land for glass beads back in the day. The ol’ North American Shuffle.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:10:41

Dec. 10, 2013, 4:28 p.m. EST
Treasurys rally for third day as taper comfort increases
3-year note auction meets strong demand
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. Treasurys rose for a third consecutive day Tuesday, pulling down yields and signaling that investors are growing comfortable with the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon begin to scale back its bond purchases.

A sale of three-year notes saw strong demand.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell more than 4 basis points to 2.801%. Yields fall as bond prices rise.

At the short end of the yield curve, the two-year-note yield slipped less than half a basis point to 0.298%, while at the long end, the 30-year T-bill yield dropped 4.3 basis points to 3.831%.

Treasurys extended a rally that started Friday despite a stronger-than-expected November jobs report, which was seen boosting expectations the Fed will move sooner than previously expected to slow the flow of monetary stimulus.

“Market participants have seemingly taken the data as a sign that, yes, the Federal Reserve will taper QE3, but no, there won’t be higher interest rates any time soon,” said Christopher Vecchio, analyst at DailyFX, in a note.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 07:55:38

What no one talks about is that QE is now bigger than the deficit. Meaning that the Fed is entirely monetizing the deficit. Even if the Fed makes minor changes to QE it will still be buying the amount the deficit. The mortgage buying is just to hide that fact. How high would interest rates be if private parties and not the Fed was financing the U.S. budget deficit?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 07:56:43

“amount of “

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-12-11 10:40:50

Hadn’t done that math recently, but that is a very interesting point that I haven’t seen brought up in the MSM…

Comment by rms
2013-12-11 12:15:36

Jim Rickards (search Youtube) has lots to say about QE, gold, inflation v deflation, etc., and an interesting perspective on the fed. Worthwhile, IMHO.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2013-12-11 12:38:06

Thanks…I’ll check it out tonight.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-12-11 13:13:59

I will also…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:26:54

And get ripped off doing it.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-12-11 08:19:46

Less distance from the Metro = higher rents, some people will pay more to avoid clown-car driving ??

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/470d4f5e-f757-44a7-9b49-66b4fd0634ee/stitch?storyguid=32e932b0-6101-11e3-b953-00212803fad6&siteid=nwhpf

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:32:36

Why buy when prices are massively inflated by 200-300% when you can rent for less than half?

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:12:21

Nov. 27, 2013, 5:01 a.m. EST
Bitcoin, not gold, has the Midas touch
Commentary: Digital currency is far more appealing than precious metal
By Matthew Lynn

It’s an alternative to paper currencies. It can be traded anywhere in the world. It has a limited supply. And it should be a secure haven if financial markets start to crash. That is a fairly accurate description of gold. It is also an accurate description of bitcoin, the digital currency that is gaining in popularity all the time.

But here’s a puzzle. The price of gold has been falling for most of this year, and it would be a brave investor who called this as the bottom of the market. And yet the price of bitcoins has been soaring. The goldbugs will tell you that the price of gold is being suppressed — it would be a lot higher if it was not being manipulated downwards. Others will argue that bitcoin is a faddish bubble, a nerd-ish equivalent of 17th century Dutch tulips. Its soaring price tells us nothing — except that people are as easily fooled as they always have been.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:15:21

David Simon: ‘There are now two Americas. My country is a horror show’
The creator of The Wire, David Simon, delivered an impromptu speech about the divide between rich and poor in America at the Festival of Dangerous Ideas in Sydney, and how capitalism has lost sight of its social compact. This is an edited extract

David Simon
The Observer, Saturday 7 December 2013

America is a country that is now utterly divided when it comes to its society, its economy, its politics. There are definitely two Americas. I live in one, on one block in Baltimore that is part of the viable America, the America that is connected to its own economy, where there is a plausible future for the people born into it. About 20 blocks away is another America entirely. It’s astonishing how little we have to do with each other, and yet we are living in such proximity.

There’s no barbed wire around West Baltimore or around East Baltimore, around Pimlico, the areas in my city that have been utterly divorced from the American experience that I know. But there might as well be. We’ve somehow managed to march on to two separate futures and I think you’re seeing this more and more in the west. I don’t think it’s unique to America.

I think we’ve perfected a lot of the tragedy and we’re getting there faster than a lot of other places that may be a little more reasoned, but my dangerous idea kind of involves this fellow who got left by the wayside in the 20th century and seemed to be almost the butt end of the joke of the 20th century; a fellow named Karl Marx.

I’m not a Marxist in the sense that I don’t think Marxism has a very specific clinical answer to what ails us economically. I think Marx was a much better diagnostician than he was a clinician. He was good at figuring out what was wrong or what could be wrong with capitalism if it wasn’t attended to and much less credible when it comes to how you might solve that.

You know if you’ve read Capital or if you’ve got the Cliff Notes, you know that his imaginings of how classical Marxism – of how his logic would work when applied – kind of devolve into such nonsense as the withering away of the state and platitudes like that. But he was really sharp about what goes wrong when capital wins unequivocally, when it gets everything it asks for.

That may be the ultimate tragedy of capitalism in our time, that it has achieved its dominance without regard to a social compact, without being connected to any other metric for human progress.

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 07:51:25

That “other America” doesn’t exist, except for when the Democrats need 120% voter turnout from the black electorate.

 
Comment by Overtaxed
2013-12-11 08:48:45

I read that article (thank you for the link) and could not agree more. Running the danger of oversharing, I thought I’d relate a conversation that’s been going on in my home for the last few months that directly relates to this article and, of course, society in general.

First, start with the oversharing. My wife and I are in our mid-30’s. We both have jobs in technology (wife in health care, me in infrastructure) that are relatively secure (or, better stated, could be replaced easily at a similar salary) and make a good living (our combined income puts us in the top 5-10% of the country depending on which chart you read). We purchased a house a few years ago that’s far below our means (based on “normal” requirements), our loan is less than 2X our combined income. And, shockingly enough, I enjoy my job (my wife a bit less so); I often look forward to Monday morning to get a new crack at the problems that I’m trying to solve.

The reason that I share this is that, to most people, I would appear as the model of “success”. Good marriage, good job that I enjoy, good income, plenty of toys, no crushing debt, lots of saving going on for retirement/etc. And yet, even with all that going for me, I still don’t want to bring children into this world. Why? Because (from the article):

“And that’s what The Wire was about basically, it was about people who were worth less and who were no longer necessary, as maybe 10 or 15% of my country is no longer necessary to the operation of the economy.”

I’d restate that to a higher number; something like 25%+ of the people in this country (of working age) aren’t necessary. And next year that number will be 27%, then 30%, and so on. Automation and computers (something I’m deeply familiar with as it’s my profession and has been my passion for most of my life) are disenfranchising segments of our country on a daily basis. Yes, there are jobs for people like me (at least for the foreseeable future) who program the machines and keep them running. But, what about the guy who used to work in the UPS distro center who lost his job because my company developed a technology to automate sorting of packages? Where’s he going to get the next job? Or welders who, almost overnight, have very little purpose in the world of auto (and many other) building because of welding robots?

The guy at UPS who programs the computers probably makes 100K a year (great for him), but he put 25 people making 30K a year out on the street (good for UPS, not so good for the package sorters). Now, if you ask an optimist, they will say that those 25 people are going to retrain and become more productive as a result. This, IMHO, is a total load of c**r. Retrain to what? They’re going to become programmers/doctors/lawyers/nurses/etc? Not very likely because (and finally getting to the crux of my manifesto here) they don’t have the intelligence necessary to retrain to these fields (if they did, they almost certainly wouldn’t have been sorting packages).

So, where does this leave us? Well, the numbers given above (10-15% or my 25%) of the country who’s “no longer necessary” is going to do nothing but expand over the next few decades. Give it 50 years, and we could be looking at 50% of the country that’s “no longer necessary” (or more) to keep things running smoothly. How are we going to deal with this as a society? Will we continue to move to the “Baltimore model” (which, to date, is exactly what we’ve done; I live behind a nice tall gate to keep out the undesirables, as do most people who are in my family income range) or will we find another solution? How, do we, as a society, deal with a situation where 1M people have jobs that are necessary but there are 2-3M people in the population?

And, finally, back to the discussion of children. We’ve yet to (and likely won’t) have any children. Why? Because, without some assurance that those children are going to be “smart enough” to compete in the new economy, there’s a very good chance that I’m conscripting them to a life as depicted in “The Wire” (perhaps with less drugs but with equal squalor). 50 years from now, I doubt my intellect will be enough to keep up; my wife has a lower IQ than I do, and, therefore, it’s very likely that any child we produced would be somewhere between us. Bright, but not brilliant (likely top 25% of IQ). And, frankly, I don’t think that will be enough to compete in this brave new age that we’re entering. Also (try not to roll your eyes too much), it is, IMHO, very likely that in the next 10 years or so we’re going to figure out how to select for IQ in early conception the same way that today we can select for sex. So, we’re likely to have a few “gap” generations (let’s call it children born from ~1990-2020) that are going to be competing for jobs in 2040 with a bunch of people who have IQs that are “off the charts” compared to what we consider normal today. Won’t be an issue for me, I’ll be out of the workforce long before then, but, for people born today, it’s very likely that they’ll be contemporaries with genetically “engineered” individuals. How on earth do we expect them to have any chance of “keeping up” in a world like that? If you’d like a fictionalized peek at this world, watch Gattca. Then substitute the “happy ending” for what very likely would have happened, the main character, even if he found some way to fool the genetic screening, would never have been able to keep up intellectually with his engineered contemporaries.

Sorry for the extraordinarily long (and depressing) post, I hope that it serves to spark some interesting contrasting viewpoints!

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 09:27:15

It’s not depressing at all. Stay childfree, be DINKs, and you’ll be happier.

And if you need unconditional love, get a dog (from a shelter).

Comment by Overtaxed
2013-12-11 10:51:11

We have 3 cats. Not sure that’s exactly “unconditional love” (if you have cats; you’ll understand) but it does well for us today. ;)

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Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2013-12-11 13:24:00

The happiest couple I ever met is childless. Still married after 30 years. Now retired, they travel all over the world. They did a lot of traveling for years but do it more now. Another couple I lost track of 18 years ago. They chose to be childless. He got a vasectomy. They too love to be active snow skiing and jet skiing.

Comment by HBB_Rocks
2013-12-11 13:34:36

Jet skiing is only fun if you don’t have an actual boat.

“Hey I think I will create another whirlpool. Nah, I’ll run this thing into a wall and go do something else. “

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Comment by Janet Felon
2013-12-11 19:23:49

You hit the nail on the head. Personal watercraft are boring.

 
 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-12-11 15:57:04

Welcome to my world. Well, not retired yet, but the rest of it. :)

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Comment by cactus
2013-12-11 14:32:39

This, IMHO, is a total load of c**r. Retrain to what?

Realtors

GMO humans maybe they won’t be happy working on Computers but want to screw off on welfare. You never know I’ve seen some pretty “smart ” guys do some pretty stupid stuff

 
Comment by cactus
2013-12-11 14:53:55

I have 2 boys its not that bad. They play basketball its fun to watch.

 
Comment by Army No Va
2013-12-11 17:22:28

The four horsemen of the apocalypse have traditionally taken care of this.

 
Comment by jane
2013-12-11 21:07:39

OT, I totally agree with you. Your post was neither long, nor depressing, nor TMI. You raise issues that merit consideration ahead of time.

Joseph Tainter wrote about this kind of long cycle decline in “The Collapse of Complex Societies” (1988). It doesn’t happen with a bang, but with a whimper. A catabolic collapse has a long period - well beyond the reach of family memories. As always, the younger generations will scoff at the older generations and believe that things have ever been thus. Meanwhile, subsistence levels keep ratcheting down. At the point where starvation is rampant, it can no longer be denied, but at that point the worm has turned and nothing can be done. The starvelings cannot overthrow the well fed .0001% behind their fortifications, and they will have lost a chance at the bottom rung forever. The frog in boiling water effect.

You are right that as long as the refuse of society are paid to reproduce, they will continue to do it, loudly. The equalizing mechanism is - as you and goonie note - a population correction. We witnessed such a correction in the Black Death during the 14C. Previously treated like offal, the global peasant class emerged as a source of valuable labor once things settled down. With so much land no longer occupied, people who had previously starved had their own. There was even some upward mobility during the Renaissance. The necessary prerequisite, though, was a die-off which removed much of the resource contention, and which compelled the .01% into competition for sources of labor.

Industrialization, of course, made people cheap again. The correction was from WWI, closely followed by the Great Pandemic of 1920-21, whose end was marked by a period of prosperity abruptly ended by the Great Depression. The icing on the cake, population control wise, was WWII. Once the survivors emerged, their scarcity made them valuable and we witnessed the Great Prosperity. As you note, we have eaten ourselves out of house and home again, and are due for a rebalance.

The Great Recession has been a population deterrent for those with intelligence. In this country, those who have no other skills than breeding, and who are subsidized to breed, have followed form - while increasing the numbers to be fed. So we’re back at disequilibrium of the worst sort.

Whoever said 25%, I’d agree. I’m not a guru of plagues, famines, and other population control mechanisms. And correlation is not causation. But IMHO we’re overdue.

Speculatively – it almost doesn’t matter where one’s progeny fall on the intelligence scale, as long as they make the bottom cut after a dislocation (history teaches us). OR as long as they have practical skills in an era when the economy constricts to local trade. Lacking intelligence and practical skills, their best shot would be to have inherited a good streak of sociopathy. In which case they will wind up running a portion of the kingdom regardless of other factors.

 
 
Comment by Overtaxed
2013-12-11 09:46:51

One of the most interesting arcs in The Wire was about Hamsterdam; an area of the city where they totally decriminalized drug sale/possession.

The intellectual discussion that I find interesting is, if this was done tomorrow on a country wide scale (all drugs made legal overnight) what would happen to the “ghetto”. Or, to crystallize the idea a bit more, if the government came out and said that scheduled drugs could now be purchased without a prescription and all schedule I drugs would immediately be reclassified as to be available at CVS, what would happen? I’m not concerned with the impact of the drug availability, what I’m more interested in is what the effect would be on the “ghetto” to lose their most significant source of income. For giggles, let’s say prostitution was legalized at the same time so that line of income is also removed from the ghetto. Would the economy (ghetto economy) totally collapse? Would the former drug dealers get real jobs? Would other crime take the place of drugs; murder for hire, loan sharking, etc (IMHO, very unlikely, drugs drive the economy of the ghetto, not typically more serious crimes)?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:06:37

“Would the former drug dealers get real jobs? Would other crime take the place of drugs; murder for hire, loan sharking, etc (IMHO, very unlikely, drugs drive the economy of the ghetto, not typically more serious crimes)?”

That is a real problem. As long as there is “easy” money to be made selling drugs, their only crimes will be selling the drugs and wasting anyone that moves in on their turf. Innocent people will not be their prime targets. Remove the drug money and a criminal will be more likely to commit armed robbery, a mugging and other crimes. Street criminals will not work at McDonalds for minimum wage, which is the only other skill set they have.

Comment by tj
2013-12-11 10:20:42

Remove the drug money and a criminal will be more likely to commit armed robbery, a mugging and other crimes.

not most of them.

Street criminals will not work at McDonalds for minimum wage, which is the only other skill set they have.

they will work at whatever job they can get. if they don’t, they will/should starve. if they commit other crimes, lock them up.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:57:03

they will work at whatever job they can get. if they don’t, they will/should starve. if they commit other crimes, lock them up.

They are prepared to kill people to defend their turf so I don’t think they are going to walk away from a life of crime. I do think we need a new approach to fighting crime and drugs and it starts from removing children from the homes of the criminals/ drug dealers and giving their parents an incentive not to have more children. However, I think it is naïve to believe that criminals will go away. Just like it is for people to think that people jailed for drug crimes are just there because they were selling drugs. The judge usually finds a history of other crimes and uses his or her ability to sentence for the drug crime. I love listening to Stossel but I think that libertarian thinking sometime has to deal with the real world and not just exist in a ivory tower.

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 11:07:43

They are prepared to kill people to defend their turf

when the drugs are legalized they no longer will have a turf.

so I don’t think they are going to walk away from a life of crime.

the killers should be put away no matter what kind of profit they’re doing it for.

I do think we need a new approach to fighting crime and drugs and it starts from removing children from the homes of the criminals/ drug dealers and giving their parents an incentive not to have more children.

so a tyrannical approach is ok with you?

However, I think it is naïve to believe that criminals will go away.

when the easy money is no longer there, most will opt for the easier life even if it doesn’t pay as much. plus, drug dealing is becoming less and less lucrative for most cartel soldiers.

I love listening to Stossel but I think that libertarian thinking sometime has to deal with the real world and not just exist in a ivory tower.

libertarian thinking deals with the real world better than you realize.

 
Comment by Overtaxed
2013-12-11 11:12:43

” However, I think it is naïve to believe that criminals will go away. Just like it is for people to think that people jailed for drug crimes are just there because they were selling drugs.”

The first part, I agree. I’m just not sure what would happen to the “drug dealers” of today, would they get jobs, go on welfare and live, or become hitmen (or some other crime that still has demand)?

On the 2nd part, sorry, but I do not at all agree. I’ve had 3 friends from college all go to prison for drug crimes (and only drug crimes). All 3 of them were growing MJ, 2 of them in CA (where, as we all know, it’s now legal) and 1 of them in NC. Exclusively jailed for drugs, no compounding factors.

A lot of the “compounding factors” are a result of drug illegality. The most common, I’d have to think, would be carrying a gun while selling drugs. That’s totally a reaction to the danger of the “job”, noting at all to do with the product (pharmacists don’t carry guns) or the nature of the position (people selling hot dogs on the corner also don’t carry guns). Yes, a lot of people “slinging crack” on the corner have a long and colorful arrest record. But that record stems from drug possession/sale charges, not from the other things they might be doing wrong at the same time.

 
 
 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 10:17:58

Would other crime take the place of drugs; murder for hire, loan sharking, etc (IMHO, very unlikely, drugs drive the economy of the ghetto, not typically more serious crimes)?

no it wouldn’t. the drug war is a huge drain on the economy in many ways. all else being equal, ending the drug war would be a huge benefit to everyone.

Comment by Overtaxed
2013-12-11 11:00:33

“ending the drug war would be a huge benefit to everyone”

Not everyone. Here’s a quick list off the top of my head of people who won’t be helped:

Prisons (probably, percentage wise, the most impacted; ~50% of people in prison are there for drugs; the other 50%, a lot of them are there getting the money to buy drugs)
Police (less police necessary because you’re not fighting a “war” anymore)
Judges/lawyers (less of both necessary)
Military (less need to fight wars if you’re not trying to stop the inflow of drugs)
Immigration/DHS (same as above)
Doctors (if you don’t need to go to a doctor to get a script for cough medicine that actually works, you’ll have fewer Dr visits)
Drug companies (all illegal drugs are off patent, docs typically use the newer patented drugs rather than the older more addictive (and more effective) drugs that are much less expensive)

But yes, I agree with your general thesis, for every one person harmed, there will 10/1000/10,000 (who knows) helped. New businesses would pop up (rehab being a big one) to support the demand/fallout from legalization.

The biggest thing, IMHO, is that the ghettos would collapse, as would the prison industrial complex and a large part of the military demand would also evaporate. That, right there, probably explains why this is such a non-starter politically.

This is the same country that once went to war with itself to get equal rights for all citizens; now we’re too weak to possibly “disrupt” powerful political supporters? It’s sad, but if slavery were the law of the land right now, I fear that we’ve lost our “will” to change things to the point where we’d never have a civil war.

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Comment by tj
2013-12-11 11:22:09

Prisons (probably, percentage wise, the most impacted; ~50% of people in prison are there for drugs; the other 50%, a lot of them are there getting the money to buy drugs)
Police (less police necessary because you’re not fighting a “war” anymore)

prisons are already overcrowded. cutting out drug crime won’t hurt them much. but even if it did, having a more crime free society would still be a net benefit, even to the people that are employed by prisions. please goole “the seen and the unseen”.

Judges/lawyers (less of both necessary)

more time for them to deal with other crimes.

Military (less need to fight wars if you’re not trying to stop the inflow of drugs)

the military isn’t on a ‘just-in-time’ basis. they are kept for when needed, even then they are not. and if we did cut the military it would have a net beneficial effect on the whole economy.

Immigration/DHS (same as above)
Doctors (if you don’t need to go to a doctor to get a script for cough medicine that actually works, you’ll have fewer Dr visits)
Drug companies (all illegal drugs are off patent, docs typically use the newer patented drugs rather than the older more addictive (and more effective) drugs that are much less expensive)

none of these would be hurt by legalization either.

The biggest thing, IMHO, is that the ghettos would collapse

no, the ghettos would shrink in size.

That, right there, probably explains why this is such a non-starter politically.

it’s non-starter politically because most people believe the myths.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-12-11 11:00:16

I think Marx was a much better diagnostician than he was a clinician.

As are most of us. Seems like everybody is pretty good at identifying what is wrong with at least one of the major political parties in the USA.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-12-11 13:18:18

Nice post Pbear…

Comment by jane
2013-12-11 21:27:13

Sorry to appear dull (off to the Soylent plant for me, lol!), but which of these folk is pbear? Thanks.

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 07:16:21

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20131210/DAAJB4881.html

Chicago going deep in debt, deeper than Chicago style pizza.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:17:26

A Hard Lesson from Motown: They Will Steal Your Pension
By David Cay Johnston / December 04 2013 12:27 PM
Like Detroit firemen and policemen who paid their full pension dues, many Americans will be rewarded in old age by poverty. Rebecca Cook/Reuters

Anyone in a public-sector job looking forward to retiring in comfort should look carefully at what is going on in Detroit and Springfield, Ill. Sherlock Holmes would call it the case of the missing pension money.

News leaking out this week from the Motor City tells how the enormous gap between the pensions workers earned and the money set aside to pay for them will be closed. By stealing from the workers.

Courts, legislatures, and corporations are all working in concert not to pay the full benefits owed. For decades, political and business leaders failed to set aside the right amount of money each payday to cover the pensions workers earned and, in some cases, covered up the mismanagement of pension fund investments.

This is nothing short of theft, as pensions are simply deferred wages, that is, money that workers could have taken as cash in their regular paychecks had they not opted to set it aside.

In Detroit, a federal bankruptcy judge handling the city’s Chapter 9 case held Tuesday decided he could safely ignore a Michigan Constitution provision barring any reduction in pension benefits to already retired public sector workers. Judge Steven W. Rhodes went beyond asserting the supremacy of federal law over state regulations, ruling that the pensions workers earned were a mere “contractual obligation,” no different from any other bill the city owes but lacks the money to pay.

The result will mean even worse poverty in the sputtering Motown, where a once robust industrial tax base has withered away, the starkest example of the economic devastation wrought by government policies that for decades have encouraged companies to move manufacturing offshore.

Financial mismanagement in Detroit under every mayor in the past six decades also contributed to the disaster, except for the honorable exception of Coleman Young in the mid-1970s. The result: Public worker pensions averaging $19,000 a year will be cut to the bone. That is sure to increase demands for federally funded food stamps, a program which Congress has just cut, and other welfare to make up for some of pensions workers earned but will not collect.

Norman Stein, a Drexel University law professor who is an expert on pensions, said that if the Detroit order stands it will become standard practice to slash benefits.

“It would be a human catastrophe of the first order if pensions of vulnerable older workers can be cut whenever a local government goes to bankruptcy court,” Stein said. “We will be consigning firemen and policemen, who did nothing wrong other than protecting the city and depending on the city’s promise, into old-age poverty.”

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 12:02:46

Many pensions are still using the 7.5% to 8% estimate on returns for their investments. They got away with it this year due to large stock market returns more than offsetting what happened in the bond market. But what happens in 2014, if the economy grows around 2% and interest rate rise? I think we will see that Meredith Whitney was just a little early in her prediction.

Comment by scdave
2013-12-11 13:31:14

Interesting perspective Overtaxed…

 
Comment by scdave
2013-12-11 13:38:16

Many pensions are still using the 7.5% to 8% estimate on returns ??

Yeah, good luck with that….I think reality is a reset..There is no way those pensions are going to stay whole…The small communities go first…Then the big one (Detroit) which forces the case to the spreame court because so much is on the line…And, their will be much pain either way it goes but IMO, if the pensions prevail the bond window for any municipality that is underfunded on its pensions will slam shut…

But what happens in 2014, if the economy grows around 2% and interest rate rise ??

I don’t think they can rise very much in the face of 2% GDP…

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 13:51:14

They can if the government cuts back substantially on QE. It use to be the only risk with U.S. bonds was an inflation risk. The inflation rate would exceed the bond rate and the bond would drop in value. But I think for the first time in modern history, there may be a default risk and it is being hidden by Fed buying. In terms of debt to GDP, economy based on consumption and IQ, we look a lot like Greece. The only and very important difference is that we print the currency we borrow in, but that might have to change raising the issue of default.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 13:57:59

Actually, the Greek IQ is lower than I remembered so we can take that one of the list.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 14:02:32

of=off

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:22:29

Daniel Fisher, Forbes Staff
I cover finance, the law, and how the two interact.

Personal Finance
12/04/2013 @ 3:20PM
Detroit Bankruptcy Ruling Good News For Muni Bonds, Insurers

The news that Detroit can proceed with its reorganization in federal court is a win for municipal bondholders and the companies that insure them, an analyst tells me. And while some believe it will encourage other cities to follow suit to restructure their pension obligations, Mark Palmer of BTIG Research says that’s unlikely given the strict provisions of the municipal bankruptcy law.

In a bitter defeat for public-sector unions yesterday, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Steven W. Rhodes ruled that Detroit can treat the claims of pensioners just like any other debt. That eliminated, for now at least, the threat that city employees could jump ahead of bondholders and other creditors to grab Detroit’s inadequate tax revenue. That’s the kind of deal the United Auto Workers got when the Obama administration bailed out GM, and many observers thought public pensions occupied a special, if unspecified, place in the pecking order.

“The fact the judge in the Detroit bankruptcy case ruled that pensions are not sacrosanct, and they can be cut, translates into potentially higher recoveries for bondholders in future bankruptcies,” said Palmer, who covers bond insurers MBIA, Assured Guaranty and Ambac for BTIG. “The assumption was pensions were super-senior, and bondholders would get any residual value beyond the pensions.”

Detroit’s success might inspire other cities facing seemingly unsupportable pension obligations to sort things out in federal bankruptcy court. It’s a powerful enough threat that public-sector unions have vowed to fight Detroit to the Supreme Court if necessary (Afscme called it a scheme to “use bankruptcy to seize employees’ and retirees’ life savings,” apparently likening the promises of politicians, many of them long retired, to pay future benefits, to money in a 401(k) account.)

Palmer said it’s unlikely many cities willl follow Detroit because Chapter 9, the special section of the bankruptcy code, requires cities to demonstrate they are totally incapable of servicing their outstanding debts. Detroit, which repeatedly raided its pension funds over the years to pay employees special bonuses, met the test by showing it has been forced to lay off police and firefighters and borrow just to pay the interest on its debt. With a shrinking population and tax base, Palmer said, it’s impossible for the city to raise enough tax revenue to cover all its obligations.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 14:04:16

“I cover finance, the law, and how the two interact.”

It is simple. If you have less than a billion dollars the law applies. If you have more than a billion dollars the law does not apply. That is how the law interacts with finance.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:23:37

Hey Debt Donkeys,

1) Spend everything you got…. and when it’s gone..

2) Borrow some more…. and when thats gone and you’re a$$ deep in debt…

3) Convince yourself how rich you are because you have $100k in your 401k

Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 08:11:09

Mike Whitney’s latest discusses subprime auto loans for debt donkeys:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/12/09/easy-lending-to-risky-borrowers-makes-a-comeback/

Comment by rms
2013-12-11 09:09:57

+1 The automobile business has been on life support for 5 or 6 years.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:18:47

No different than the housing market.

Interesting these two truths don’t get discussed much.

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Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 07:27:38

New York Times opinion piece wets the bed on gun ownership:

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/10/who-needs-a-gun/

Now this is what Dianne Feinstein would consider “real journalism”

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 07:48:23

About the author: “He is the author of, most recently, “Thinking the Impossible: French Philosophy Since 1960″ and writes regularly for The Stone.”

I think there have been mistakes and I will fix them: He is the author of, most recently, “Thinking IS Impossible: French Philosophy Since 1960″ and writes regularly stoned.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:52:57

“Game Over for Real Estate: Time to Short US Housing Market”

http://www.nomadiccapitalpartners.com/short-us-housing-market/

This is no great revelation but it’s good to see the media discussing the disaster that is housing.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 08:10:12

Do you think any of these will be renewed?

http://plackgroupblog.com/expiring-deductions-2013/

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 08:19:40

Some key ones. Also the electric car deduction is gone.

1. Cancellation of Debt Exclusion: Currently, individuals can exclude up to $2 million of COD income from qualified principal residence indebtedness that is canceled because of their financial condition or decline in value of the residence.

2. Mortgage Insurance Premiums Deduction: Individuals with an AGI less than or equal to $109,000 can treat qualified mortgage insurance premiums as home mortgage interest.

3. Personal Energy Property Credit: A credit is available for qualified energy efficiency improvements and expenditures to a taxpayer’s principal residence, with a lifetime cap of $500.

Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes (Downlow Joe)
2013-12-11 09:16:49

I really hate #1 and 2. It reduces the cost of paying the mortgage insurance for ~8 yrs on a minimum-down FHA loan.

#3, the cap is so low that I really don’t care that much about it. It really doesnt’ help much if you’re serious about conservation/efficiency anyway. I’ll admit, I took the deduction in 2012, but that had no bearing on whether I would’ve spent the money/had the work done (new nat gas water heater, several drafty windows replaced, 1 door replaced, lots of insulation and caulking). And why would anyone buy any appliances that are NOT energy star? It makes no sense. Energy Star (unlike LEED certification) is a highly effective program that has made drastic improvements in how much energy common appliances use, while barely costing the consumer or manufacturer anything–the testing is cheap and the standards are simple. (LEED is basically the opposite of this. Very opaque and complicated criteria that lose sight of the overall goals. Very expensive and labor-intensive process that does add to builder/consumer costs. Shifts energy inputs around but really doesn’t reduce them. Ignores many externalities.)

Ideally, I’d like to see almost all deductions eliminated, along with most government subsidies. Gov’t shouldn’t be picking winners and losers and should be spending its money more transparently.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:20:15

Liberace!

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Comment by goon squad
2013-12-11 09:31:50

Downlow Joe has entered the building.

And on a related note, India’s supreme court just restored a law banning gay sex, so if you’re gonna get some downlow, don’t get it in India.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-11 09:59:43

And on a related note, India’s supreme court just restored a law banning gay sex, so if you’re gonna get some downlow, don’t get it in India.

That is really odd for the hindus. IIRC their attitude was don’t ask don’t tell. What changed?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:09:31

They like gold too and they “banned” the importation of it.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:18:55

So if you are a gay goldsmith in India, you are really bummed or not.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-11 11:21:17

They like curry, too. Is it on the ban list as well?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-12-11 11:31:34

That is really odd for the hindus. IIRC their attitude was don’t ask don’t tell. What changed?

How much influence do the Indian Muslims have?

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-11 11:49:22

How much influence do the Indian Muslims have?

I would say none. It has to be the hindus (~80%) of the population.

 
Comment by reedalberger
2013-12-11 12:17:42

“How much influence do the Indian Muslims have?”

“It has to be the hindus (~80%) of the population.”

Followers of which “religion” would be more likely to commit murder, torture and other unspeakable atrocities? Even if the Muslims are less than 20%, they strike extreme fear in the hearts of the passive, the apologists and the appeasers.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-12-11 15:19:30

Wouldn’t that #2 also amount to a small amount of money - mortgage interest on mortgages below $109,000?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 15:24:03

Not based on the size of the mortgage but the level of income of the borrower. While that income should not be buying more than about a $250,000 house, would not be surprised to see a taxpayer in more than a $500,000 house.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-12-11 17:33:07

That could be a noteworthy amount of money then. I forgot what AGI stands for.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:24:00

How’d you like to be on the hook for those kind of losses? Wow.

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 08:42:22

You might think it’s a cliche to say “they’re not making any more land”, but it’s true if you’re talking about the San Francisco peninsula.

This is not Dallas, or any other inland city without natural barriers to expansion.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:49:36

With 4.4 million excess empty and defaulted houses in CA, why do you need “more land”?

Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 09:42:27

Because there is no difference between Stockton and Atherton, right?

Why don’t you leave this discussion to the grownups, and keep yours over at the children’s table.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:45:10

And all 4.4 MILLION of them are depreciating…. rapidly.

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 10:27:32

Because there is no difference between Stockton and Atherton, right?

what about your fellow realtors in stockton, amy? don’t you feel for them? pretty elitist of you.

Why don’t you leave this discussion to the grownups, and keep yours over at the children’s table.

you mean leave this discussion to the brainwashed, don’t you amy?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:44:11

Your hoax posts are not getting any love. So I dedicate this song to you:

http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/p/pure_prairie_league/amy.html

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 11:00:26

Now you need to get Janet Yellen to sing it to you before she takes away the punch bowl and breaks your heart.

 
Comment by rms
2013-12-11 12:25:15

“Where there is blood on the streets, buy property” –Baron de Rothschild

 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2013-12-11 11:20:07

u might think it’s a cliche to say “they’re not making any more land”, but it’s true if you’re talking about the San Francisco peninsula.

This is not Dallas, or any other inland city without natural barriers to expansion.

It is a big city, so there’s always the option of building taller apartment or condo buildings.

Comment by Rental Watch
2013-12-11 11:48:59

“It is a big city, so there’s always the option of building taller apartment or condo buildings.”

Bingo.

Every time they build a new condo tower, they “make land”. The “not making any more land” argument is BS.

However, the political environment restricting development is very real.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2013-12-11 10:53:29

An attorney that I work with (who lives in SF) was watching the bubble from the sidelines with me.

In 2012, he then tried to find a house to buy in SF.

Now he’s back on the sidelines.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 12:02:31

Right where you should have stayed. Now you’ve got losses and he doesn’t.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:22:42

25 MILLION excess, empty and defaulted houses CHECK

Housing demand at 14 year lows and falling CHECK

Housing prices inflated by 250% CHECK

Household formation at multi decade lows CHECK

Rampant housing fraud CHECK

Public denial formed and supported by a corrupt media CHECK

Population growth the lowest in US history CHECK

Immigration flat to slightly negative CHECK

Oh my word……

 
Comment by jane
2013-12-11 21:51:35

The filthy money sloshing around in DC that has to come out smelling clean keeps the prices high. I can’t believe the prices on these PsOS.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:25:06

“Housing as a rental investment is a huge gamble considering it’s negative cash flow at current inflated asking prices of resale housing.

Beware.”

Exactly.

Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 09:51:42

With today’s low interest rates, condos and rental homes in most markets can be rented for twice the amount of PITI. If you don’t mind putting in a few hours a month being a landlord, it’s essentially free money.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 10:09:49

And huge gambles mean huge losses.

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 09:42:09

Oregon, once touted as a model for President Obama’s health care law, signed up just 44 people for insurance through November, despite spending more than $300 million on its state-based exchange.

The state’s exchange had the fewest sign-ups in the nation, according to a new report today by the Department of Health and Human Services.

The weak number of sign-ups undercuts two major defenses of Obamacare from its supporters.

One defense was that state-based exchanges were performing a lot better than the federal healthcare.gov website servicing 36 states. But Oregon’s website problems have forced the state to rely on paper applications to sign up participants.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 09:46:42

Same paper, same day:

Just 364,682 Americans picked a health insurance plan through President Obama’s health care program between the Oct. 1 launch of the insurance exchanges and Nov. 30, the Department of Health and Human Services announced today.

Though the pace of signups accelerated during November, as only 106,185 Americans had picked plans as of Nov. 2, the combined signups were still less than half the administration’s target of 800,000 enrollments by the end of November.

Adding a caveat, HHS noted that it is trying to correct a problem that may have resulted in some of the signups being counted twice, thus potentially overstating the number.

Comment by Ben Jones
2013-12-11 09:49:35

‘If you have ambitions of being one of the first people on Mars, listen up: A Dutch company says it is moving along with its plan to send four lucky Earthlings to colonize the Red Planet. The catch: They won’t ever come back.’

‘Enthusiasm has been growing since the project’s first big announcement in April. More than 200,000 people have signed up to be prospective astronauts, Mars One CEO Bas Lansdorp said.’

‘Apparently, they’re OK with living out the rest of their lives on Mars. The technology for a return flight doesn’t exist — there’s no Kennedy Space Center launch pad over there! — and having a one-way trip greatly reduces costs, the company has said.’

‘The application period is now closed, and by the end of this year, the company plans to notify those special folk who made it to Round 2.’

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:13:45

They will be subjected to additional screening due to those one way tickets:

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/travel/news/2004-09-14-away-on-business_x.htm

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 10:16:38

I don’t think the TSA will think and make an exception it would be out of character:

One-way ticket to suspicion
By Michael Conlon, Reuters

CHICAGO — For a really close look at airport security, try traveling on a one-way ticket.

The suspicions raised by such tickets — rooted in the assumption that someone planning an act of terror in the sky wouldn’t bother to pay a return fare — have taken a firm hold since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Boarding passes based on a one-way purchase are usually stamped or punched in a way that alerts airport security personnel, who greet these travelers with the news that they have been selected for additional screening.

 
Comment by reedalberger
2013-12-11 12:27:41

“The suspicions raised by such tickets — rooted in the assumption that someone planning an act of terror in the sky wouldn’t bother to pay a return fare — have taken a firm hold since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.”

Mr Terrorist: “Self…How am I supposed to blow up planes if I can’t buy one way tickets without raising suspicion? Is it time to get a day job?”

I know the Militant Islamists are brainwashed lucifarian savages, but there has to be one or two with enough brain power to entertain the idea of buying a round trip ticket. No? Maybe they need the extra money to tip the 72 virgins.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 12:55:13

Mr Terrorist: “Self…How am I supposed to blow up planes if I can’t buy one way tickets without raising suspicion? Is it time to get a day job?”

The terrorists are frugal and the NSA is a spendthrift. Once again it shows that the private sector is much more responsible with money than government.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 16:08:30
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Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-11 10:10:01

$300 million on its state-based exchange.

How much of that money went into purchasing homes?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2013-12-11 11:33:03

Helpful link for first time home buyers:

http://www.realtor.com/home-finance/buyers-basics/

Comment by tj
2013-12-11 11:44:45

amy, how long are you going to keep spamming us with the same link? with the same message?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 11:45:09

realtors are liars

 
Comment by First Time Home Buyer
2013-12-11 12:09:45

This is exactly what I was looking for. Thank you.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 13:04:56

Welcome to Debt-Donkeyism :mrgreen:

 
 
Comment by rms
2013-12-11 12:34:47

“Helpful link for first time home buyers:”

“Where there is blood on the streets, buy property” –Baron de Rothschild

Right now home buyers that don’t have two nickels to rub together are buying $500k homes, and non-english speaking farm laborers are cruising the boulevard in Cadillac Escalades. Ergo, no blood; don’t buy.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 12:36:10

dimes brother dimes!

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-12-11 11:56:33

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100250309

My partner just pointed me in the direction of this debate between John Taylor and Greenspan. I’ll be watching tonight.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by NH Hick
2013-12-11 13:56:32

Even though Brown isn’t the ideal, conservatives like myself will support him. Anything is better in a state that has been bastardized by being too close to Ma$$holechusetts. I would rather see someone more conservative. NH is the last possible bastion of anything somewhat conservative in the northeast.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 14:08:23

True that. I would call it libertarian like my home state of Vermont once was prior to the invasion of flatlanders. Now, it is one of the most liberal in the nation except for gun rights. The last vestige of its libertarian past.

Comment by NH Hick
2013-12-11 14:38:11

I’d like to see Rand Paul go up against Elizabeth Warren in 2016. That is what I would call a race, a real choice in which direction we should go.

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Comment by tj
2013-12-11 14:52:50

I’d like to see Rand Paul go up against Elizabeth Warren in 2016. That is what I would call a race, a real choice in which direction we should go.

it would be nice if all races were as stark of a difference as that contest would be.

tonto, liawatha, “you didn’t build that” chief warren should never have been allowed to hold office in the first place. she has no morals, only rhetoric. she’s about as dangerous as they come. that’s because she’s about as idiotic as they come. ol’ high cheek bones warren. just give her a hammer and sickle, and she’s right at home.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 15:04:54

“high cheek bones warren”

I did not know that you were entitled to affirmative action for high cheek bones until I read about her.

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 15:46:39

the more you read about her, the more disgusting you see she is. most that will vote for her, won’t know jack about her.

 
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-11 15:51:09

I don’t like her either but what’s so digusting about her? She would have probably voted against WallStreet bailouts if she were in the senate in 2008. She has to be slightly better than some of the turds we have in senate from both R and D parties.

 
Comment by tj
2013-12-11 16:09:13

I don’t like her either but what’s so digusting about her?

how about her lies about her ‘indian’ heritage to get into a prestigious law school?

how about her infamous claim to people that worked hard in their businesses, that they “didn’t build that”?

how about her lies about her lies? at first she claimed she never claimed she had indian heritage. she knew she made the claim, but only confessed when she was proven to be a liar.

she has no conscience. no moral compass. she’s a socialist that will bring pain to everyone.

other than that she’s pretty good.

She would have probably voted against WallStreet bailouts if she were in the senate in 2008.

i doubt it. it’s easy to claim you would have done the right thing in the past. problem is, she’s never done a right thing that i know of yet. (except she says she would have done the right things)

She has to be slightly better than some of the turds we have in senate from both R and D parties.

what makes you say that?

 
Comment by NH Hick
2013-12-11 16:16:35

Whats disgusting about her is she is just another liberal hypocrite, lawyer, lier, who gets elected by the Ma$$ holechusettes machine.

 
Comment by tom cruz bustamante
2013-12-11 16:37:14

What’s so good about mclame, schummer, mcconell, lindsey, dingy harry, lieberman?

she fits right at home with them.

 
Comment by tom cruz bustamante
2013-12-11 16:41:01

Whats disgusting about her is she is just another liberal hypocrite, lawyer, lier, who gets elected by the Ma$$ holechusettes machine.

That’s every democrat in position of power.

 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 15:26:51

Bit of a theme, the debt donkeys are back in force:

MasterCard (MA.N) announced a 10-for-1 stock split and a new $3.5 billion stock-buyback program, and raised its quarterly dividend by 83 percent. The news drove the stock up 3.5 percent to close at a record $790.57. Earlier, MasterCard hit a lifetime intraday high at $801.14.

Shares of its competitor Visa (V.N) rose 3.1 percent to close at a record $205.66, helping to limit the Dow’s decline. Visa also reached a record intraday high at $207.90.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Resistor
2013-12-11 16:02:13

Yay housing crisis!

 
 
Comment by Resistor
2013-12-11 16:09:43

Ben, PO Box 1764 Flagstaff, AZ 86002 still good?

Comment by Muggy
2013-12-11 16:11:50

Switching back to the old handle… the bubble talk at work has subsided.

Comment by tj
2013-12-11 16:18:09

hi Muggy! which handle were you using?

Comment by tom cruz bustamante
2013-12-11 16:39:54

Amy Hoax?

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Comment by Muggy
2013-12-11 17:19:07
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Comment by tj
2013-12-11 17:41:21

ok, i’m not here everyday so sometimes i don’t catch the changes.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 17:06:48

resistor

Comment by tj
2013-12-11 17:43:10

thanks HA.

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Comment by phony scandals
2013-12-11 17:26:59

This guy wasn’t a fake, he was clearly calling a penalty on Obama for jumping into the neutral zone which caused the Danish PM hottie to move before the ball was snapped.

‘Fake’ sign language interpreter at Nelson Mandela memorial provokes anger

By Alexander Smith, NBC News contributor

Deaf people watching the Nelson Mandela memorial were bemused and shocked by a “fake” sign language interpreter on stage whose gestures were unintelligible, activists said Wednesday.

The interpreter was watched by millions as he stood beside speakers at the event including President Barack Obama.

Hundreds of people took to social media to express their anger at the interpreter’s gestures, and several deaf groups confirmed his signing did not reflect the comments being made to honor the anti-apartheid icon.

David Buxton, chief executive of the British Deaf Association, said in an email that “the gentleman is a total fake.”

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/11/21860157-fake-sign-language-interpreter-at-nelson-mandela-memorial-provokes-anger - 403k

Comment by rms
2013-12-12 00:00:00

“Hundreds of people took to social media to express their anger at the interpreter’s gestures, and several deaf groups confirmed his signing did not reflect the comments being made to honor the anti-apartheid icon.”

Is “signing output” performed in one universal format?

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2013-12-11 17:53:38

Santa Claus Should Not Be a White Man Anymore

It’s time to give St. Nick his long overdue makeover.

By Aisha Harris
Dec. 10 2013 11:57 AM

Yes, it is. And so I propose that America abandon Santa-as-fat-old-white-man and create a new symbol of Christmas cheer. From here on out, Santa Claus should be a penguin.

That’s right: a penguin.

Why, you ask? For one thing, making Santa Claus an animal rather than an old white male could spare millions of nonwhite kids the insecurity and shame that I remember from childhood. Whether you celebrate the holiday or not, Santa is one of the first iconic figures foisted upon you: He exists as an incredibly powerful image in the imaginations of children across the country (and beyond, of course). That this genial, jolly man can only be seen as white—and consequently, that a Santa of any other hue is merely a “joke” or a chance to trudge out racist stereotypes—helps perpetuate the whole “white-as-default” notion endemic to American culture (and, of course, not just American culture).

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/holidays/2013/12/santa_claus_an_old_white_man_not_anymore_meet_santa_the_penguin_a_new_christmas.html - 117k

 
Comment by phony scandals
2013-12-11 19:22:04

monetary heroin

Comment by azdude02
2013-12-11 20:33:22

I wish they would have thought of all this money printing a long time ago.

 
 
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