December 11, 2013

A False Recovery In Housing

Bloomberg reports on California. “Jumbo loans, both adjustable and fixed-rate, increased by 34 percent to $216 billion in the first nine months of this year, with ARMs comprising the majority of the gain, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. In early December, Jim Pietrocini refinanced his 4,600-square-foot Carlsbad, California, home. Pietrocini couldn’t resist the deal on the jumbo, a loan exceeding the limit the government will buy. His $744,000 mortgage at 3.5 percent, which adjusts annually after seven years, will save him almost $8,000 a year compared with a fixed rate loan at 5 percent.”

“‘I have two kids who are teenagers who probably will be gone in seven years,’ said Pietrocin. ‘My wife and I don’t need all this space for ourselves, so we’re probably going to downsize before the loan adjusts.’”

“A decade ago, jumbo ARMs helped fuel the housing bubble by letting buyers qualify for homes they only could afford at the low rates before they reset. When home prices stopped climbing in mid-2006, both jumbo and conventional ARM borrowers began defaulting in higher numbers. ‘People have decided that whatever happened in 2008 is not going to happen again,’ said Richard Lepre, a San Francisco- based loan officer. ‘There is not much concern about home values falling again.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “In the city of Sacramento, permits for residential remodels and additions in excess of $50,000 increased from 97 in 2012 to 113 so far this year, said Ryan DeVore, the city’s chief building officer. Susan Zdarko said she refinanced in preparation for adding a second story to her Land Park cottage. ‘Interest rates are historically the lowest they’ve been in my lifetime,’ Zdarko said. ‘It was the perfect opportunity.’”

“Rochelle Kaye said the sense that values were ticking up helped assure her and her husband that now was a good time to add a covered backyard patio with a fireplace to their Land Park house. ‘For us, at this point in our lives, we might as well do it now and enjoy it when the kids are here,’ Kaye said. ‘We know we’re not going to lose money.’”

The LA Times. “Changing cultural attitudes and skyrocketing home prices have boosted demand for condominiums this year, experts say. Tunisha Collure recently debated leaving her downtown L.A. apartment for a single-family house when she looked to become a homeowner. But the 31-year-old banker couldn’t part with the city center. She scooped up a South Park condo last month for $575,000. ‘To be able to get out of a condo and walk one step and there is wine bar, or walk two steps, a Starbucks, and three more steps, you are at Staples Center — I think that’s why I didn’t purchase a single-family home,’ she said.”

“There’s simply little space left for row upon row of single-family houses — especially in the coastal counties. ‘It’s almost an iron law,’ Gerd-Ulf Krueger, chief economist with KruegerEconomics, said of the coming denser development. ‘It’s set in stone.’”

The San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “A report from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. that will be included in Thursday’s summit predicts that L.A. County will experience ‘lackluster’ growth through 2014. Residential construction continues to struggle. ‘I think part of the challenge in trying sort all of this out is that, in many ways, we’re seeing a kind of false recovery in housing,’ said Tom Adams, owner of Century 21 Adams & Barnes in Monrovia. ‘A lot of offshore money has been coming in — particularly in the San Gabriel Valley — and that is not the norm. I’m fearful that if that money goes away it will create a new vacuum in our market, and we won’t need any houses for a while.’”

“Southern California’s housing market has posted double-digit prices increases and Adams said that’s been fueled by the influx of foreign money, tight inventories and the housing market’s ongoing recovery. In the thick of the recession and its aftermath, foreclosures and short sales dominated the market. But Adams said they are virtually nonexistent now. ‘Banks are not foreclosing for political reasons and increasing home values have created equity so homeowners can either sell or keep their homes,’ he said.”

The Fresno Bee. “In a back alley near downtown Fresno, about 40 people gathered Thursday for a candlelight vigil beside several vacant, boarded-up homes — a blight they consider one of the city’s biggest problems. The vigil, spearheaded by Faith in Community, asked for a meeting with Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin and city officials to help draft an ordinance that would prevent ’slumlords’ from purchasing new properties.”

“While walking in Brookhaven in southwest Fresno, Bryson White, a minister for Saint Rest Baptist Church, said group members spotted 22 abandoned homes owned by JD Home Rentals. ‘The number of vacant homes managed by the company at any one time is a function of the economy,’ Bryce Hovannisian with JD Home Rentals said in a written statement. ‘In our experience, during slower economic times it can take longer to rent homes, so sometimes there may be more vacancies. At all times, JD Homes works to comply with the city of Fresno’s rules that require vacant homes to be boarded-up, because we understand that it is an important public safety issue, and we share the community’s concerns about keeping neighborhoods safe.’”

The San Francisco Examiner. “In a Google bus blockade in The City’s Mission district Monday morning, about two dozen protesters dubbing themselves the San Francisco Displacement and Neighborhood Impact Agency and a Google employee imposter underscored yet again what they consider an eviction crisis linked to the tech industry.”

“Yellow-vested protesters held a ‘Warning: Illegal Use of Public Infrastructure’ sign, highlighting the problems they see with Google’s commuter shuttles picking up workers at Muni stops. Two activists boarded the Google bus passed out eviction surveys with the likeness of a civic seal. A man pretending to be a Google worker got off the bus and shouted at protesters, ‘This is a city for the right people who can afford it! If you can’t afford it, it’s time for you to leave!’”

“The hoaxer, who later revealed he is Max Bell Alper, called his impassioned tirade ‘a piece of improv political theater’ to demonstrate his worry that housing and transportation in The City are becoming less and less affordable. ‘It’s completely absurd that anybody would want to live in a city that only rich people can afford,’ he said.”




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110 Comments »

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:10:49

“Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop for a Third Straight Month”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-11/manhattan-apartment-rents-drop-for-a-third-straight-month.html

Considering rental rates are falling nationally, this should be no surprise.

Good luck to the corrupt ba$stards at Blackstone. :mrgreen:

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:12:04

‘We know we’re not going to lose money.’”

heh….. that’s what our own underwater Sacramento speculator said too.

Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 07:42:09

Yes, I did say that and here is what happened……

Bought a foreclosure in 2010. $296,000

Sold the house in 2013. $420,000

Collected another $15,000 in cash flow and principal reduction.

30% annual ROI.

Laughing all the way to the bank-er…..HA! Burdbrains can’t see the recovery but it is there.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:48:46

Anymore tale tales today Dear DebtDonkey?

 
Comment by azdude02
2013-12-11 07:53:06

yeah buddy That’s the way to do it. Dont listen to the bitter renter.

How much do you think he should tip his landlord this year?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:55:04

Why buy when rental rates are half the monthly cost?

Buy later after prices crater for 70% less.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 08:39:36

azdude,

The resident did very well. He had a very nice house to live in for 3 years at a very reasonable rent. I gave him a nice spiff and helped him move. In fact, I gave him more than I gave Ben and I would say Ben made a much bigger contribution to the strategy creation.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:45:45

Of course you did. :clapping:

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 10:14:10

Why thank you HA, I am glad you can see the value in all of this: the resident gets a great place to live he could not otherwise afford, Ben get’s a spiff, I make some money.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 11:32:23

Huh uh :clapping:

 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 12:01:29

Gloat again later when said bagholder defaults on that $420K. Glad we (taxpayers) could finance your “ROI”.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 12:51:46

Jingle, are you holding the note on the house?

Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 14:29:29

No I am not holding the note. Borrower put $125,000 down and financed the rest with Bank of the West at 4.15%. They invested another $50,000 or so remodeling. No default risk in that loan.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-11 14:38:21

The buyers PITI is under $2,000/mon and the rental value is $2400/mon, so why would he ever default? He could rent it out for cash flow after servicing the debt and all the expenses. In 30 years, he owns it free and clear. Nice.

 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 15:15:42

Sounds like the buyer has enough skin in the game. I was going off the premise this was a 3% downer. I’ve known people who rack up a $400,000 mortgage and after 2 years of payments and 28 more years of forseen slavery would just rather give it back to the bank.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 15:42:47

There are scenarios that might eliminate this person’s “skin”. Considered unlikely by many of course.

Just me, but I wouldn’t consider a couple hundred a month less depreciation on a half a million $ house less hassle and possible vacancy periods adequate return on a $175,000 investment.

 
 
 
Comment by Janet Felon
2013-12-11 14:54:02

It’s easy to lie on a blog. Yawn.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 15:19:33

Precisely. No one shred of evidence to support this wild claim from an known housing troll.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 15:54:44

Still, his contribution to support the blog was verified. It is possible to win a roll of the dice, and it is then likely to believe one made a good gamble, despite the obvious odds against it.

There are millions and millions with this mindset who cannot see how far out on a limb mortgaged housing is. It is unreasonable to expect them to foresee the bough breaking that is inevitable. I think at this point it is going to be breath taking.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 17:13:04

Yeah….. “contribution”. Think about that one.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 17:53:00

Yes I have thought about it. I respect Ben. I am trying to be less insulting in some specific areas. It’s not easy. Not all areas!

Some things are their own insult.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2013-12-12 06:43:50

The property sale was verified right her on the HBB. I posted the address and gave all the particulars last July. No reason to doubt any of it.

There are many on this blog who believe there is another housing bust coming, and have been saying housing is a terrible investment.

I have offered proof buying housing in 2010 was the best investment of my lifetime (excepting perhaps buying Mattel stock in 1991….Barbie for President!)

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-12 06:53:02

You didn’t post anything but a raft of BS. It’s what you do every day.

And remember….. Housing is never an investment. It’s an expense and a loss every day you own it.

 
Comment by doom
2013-12-12 10:22:14

Making the landlord rich is the dumbest thing you can do, history shows owning property over the long haul is the American dream.

I’m proof of it, we owned rental and commercial property, many homes over my life time saw up and down’s, overall I didn’t retire young and well off because I rented a flat or apt.

Oh yes I’m wrong, when I married we rented a apt in Northridge Cal, within three months we bought a VA home, sold that in one year for $41,000 profit from then on the rest was history.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-17 06:54:56

Nonsense.

Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, ALWAYS.

 
 
 
Comment by doom
2013-12-12 10:25:38

Jingle…You are the true American investor, good for you sir, don’t listen to folks who have very little in their life but a broken down junk car and rent a apt or trailer.

These are envy people who never had the guts to invest in this great country?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-12 10:29:46

Why would anyone envy holding onto massive losses?

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Comment by doom
2013-12-12 10:53:21

massive losses? Just because many folks got caught up in 2005-2006 housing doesn’t mean the world ends.
(Germany and Japan destroyed by war? today they are (industrial giants)

You see a good deal you go for it, make up for your mistake happens everyday in the world.

For every bad deal their is a great deal, you just have to dig for it, believe me in a country this size and diverse there is always money to be made.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-12 11:00:50

And if you bought in the last 14 years, you’re sitting on losses… and growing by the day.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:19:00

“Jim Pietrocini refinanced his 4,600-square-foot Carlsbad, California, home. Pietrocini couldn’t resist the deal on the jumbo, a loan exceeding the limit the government will buy. His $744,000 mortgage at 3.5 percent”

Now this is priceless.

With FHA beginning to yank price supports from California housing, deep, cratering price declines have already started there.

“FHA Loan in 2014 – Maximum Loan Limits to Decrease Over $100,000″

http://www.loansafe.org/fha-loan-in-2014-maximum-loan-limits-to-decrease-over-100000

Comment by rms
2013-12-12 01:16:06

“…his 4,600-square-foot Carlsbad, California, home.”

I grew up in that kind of space, but could never afford it after being on my own. These days I’m happy with 1550-sqft, and I would likely be happy in 1000-sqft once the kids are flying on their own wings.

Comment by rms
2013-12-12 01:17:34

Forgot…I could definitely enjoy that ocean view!

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-12-11 06:39:30

“‘Banks are not foreclosing for political reasons and increasing home values have created equity so homeowners can either sell or keep their homes’, he said.”

Which means we bankers get to win once again. And not only will homeowners (homeowners: interesting term, no?) get to keep their homes they will eventually be able to CASH OUT more equity as the price continues to rise.

A price rise translates to a rise in equity, and since many of the sheeple have been convinced that untapped equity in one’s house is money that is just sitting there going to waste the next step that needs to be taken by we bankers in doing God’s work is to offer (at a steep price, of course) an opportunity for the homeowner (there’s that term again) to LIBERATE this equity from its imprisonment.

Save America! Suck out all the home’s equity and spend it just a fast as you can (meaning spend what is left after I extract my cut, of course).

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 06:41:08

And when will prices stop falling and start rising?

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-12-11 06:47:20

The greatest joy that we bankers get to celibrate in this, the Twenty First Century, is the relentless morphing of the economy from an Earned Money Economy to a Borrowed Money Economy.

Once this morphing is complete we bankers will have it all, and at last Americans will get to enjoy the Total Freedom that they deserve, freedom as described by the words of a song that goes like this:

“Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.”

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 06:49:13

YOLO!

Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-12-11 07:09:01

The “YOLO Economy”.

I like it.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:02:32

Did you come up with the idea to link savings accounts to lottery ticket purchases?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 07:04:03

You can’t make this up!

Savings accounts that include lotto tickets
December 10, 2013, 5:18 PM
By Anne Tergesen

The savings rate in the U.S. has been in decline for decades, with about one-third of households currently lacking any savings at all. Now, some members of Congress are backing a novel approach to boosting savings – especially among the segment of the population with the lowest savings rates.

Recently, a bipartisan group of legislators introduced The American Savings Promotion Act, which would allow credit unions and other financial institutions to offer so-called prize-linked savings accounts. Currently, these accounts are banned under a federal law, passed in the 1960s, that prevents banks from operating lotteries.

“At a time when the annual savings rate in the U.S. is just 4.1%, prize-linked savings accounts would incentivize personal savings by offering participants chances to win prizes based on savings account deposit activity while never putting their savings at risk,” Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), a co-sponsor of the measure, said in a statement.

Comment by Combotechie
2013-12-11 07:41:43

No dollar shall be allowed to escape.

Comment by azdude02
2013-12-11 07:54:41

They should give out free pizzas from papa johns! Put a topping on that savings account.

You are a fool to save dollars. Invest in stocks and homes.

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Comment by snake charmer
2013-12-11 08:17:38

I’m surprised the national savings rate is that high. But don’t worry, in time all that money and more will be spent on health insurance and inflated medical expenses. It’s all good!

Comment by CincyDad
2013-12-11 10:35:47

“savings rate ” - depends on how you dfine it.

You and I define it as money set aside for future consumption/gifting/etc.

The Federal Gov’nt defines it as money set aside + money used to pay down debt.

The actual calculation is something like: ‘all moneys earned minus all moneys spent on consumption during a given month’. That’s why you sometimes see a negative savings rate… people used credit to buy more (in dollars) than they earned (in dollars) that month.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 12:54:18

Does default count as savings too?

 
Comment by tom cruz bustamante
2013-12-11 15:19:54

Does default count as savings too?

Fed probably counts that as double saving at least.

 
 
 
Comment by octal77
2013-12-11 12:13:58

So what ever happened to free (made in USA) toasters?

 
 
 
Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 06:43:24

She scooped up a South Park condo last month for $575,000.

Ah to be young and foolish and living in the big city. South Park condo for 575k? Ahahahahahahaha.

Wikipedia article on South Park Los Angeles says median income is less than $30k.

Comment by oxide
2013-12-11 07:07:19

Wikipedia is talking about a different South Park, which is 40 blocks (2.5 miles) south of the Staples Center. That said, I don’t know if being near the convention center and LA Lakers is worth $575K.

Comment by Ben Jones
2013-12-11 08:29:21

It’s a box of air that comes with a HOA bill.

Comment by goedeck
2013-12-11 09:56:38

Good line, Ben.

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Comment by Strawberrypicker
2013-12-11 19:28:40

You are right, thanks. But the point still stands. I used to work close to there in downtown LA. Anyone who lives in downtown LA is nuts. They can pretend there is walkability like in NY but there isn’t. I wouldn’t walk around anywhere in downtown LA alone at night.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 20:37:12

You wouldn’t walk around NYC at nite either.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 12:58:15

” $575,000. ‘To be able to get out of a condo and walk one step and there is wine bar, or walk two steps, a Starbucks, and three more steps, you are at Staples Center…”

Tears of Joy!

I’m sure I don’t get it though. I don’t go to wine bars, or Starbucks, or Staples.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 13:03:00

But Debt Donkeys love paying $6 for a glorified cup of coffee.

Comment by Janet Felon
2013-12-11 15:03:33

Wholesale coffee prices have CRATERRRR!!ed, yet Starbucks has been raising prices. I enjoy lattes like the next person, but $5 a pop is a joke.

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Comment by octal77
2013-12-11 13:26:32

Take 4 steps and there lays a wino and/or gangster who just took a pee up against your wall.

From time to time I have to drive that area on business. I make sure the windows are up and both doors are locked. Avoid driving any kind of expensive car or truck.

 
Comment by Janet Felon
2013-12-11 15:16:57

Ahhh, yes, the area near the Staples Center. My only experience there involved a walk from a Kings hockey game to the parked car where I saw people smoking crack in public, and a burly black man pushing a shopping cart full of stolen car batteries which he was selling back to people who found their car batteries missing. Yeah, good call Tunisha. Well, at least it sounds like you’re the right skin color. That’s worth something. Enjoy your foreclosure- I’ll put the odds as 95%.

Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 15:30:58

Staples is a sports arena, oh.

I wonder how much bank tellers make. A three or four grand a month nut would get exhausting pretty fast.

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Comment by rms
2013-12-12 01:34:34

“She scooped up a South Park condo last month for $575,000.”

Wow, $575k is a lot of money for shelter…even for a banker.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 06:46:45

“‘I have two kids who are teenagers who probably will be gone in seven years,’ said Pietrocin. ‘My wife and I don’t need all this space for ourselves, so we’re probably going to downsize before the loan adjusts.’”

What if the price downsizes before the owner sells?

Comment by qt
2013-12-11 08:31:18

What if the kids can’t find jobs and want to move back home?

Comment by Bad Andy
2013-12-11 11:05:27

Fail…kids can’t find a job? They can live in the new smaller house’s basement. It works for Housing Analyst.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 11:34:28

Business not too good lately Donkey?

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Comment by Bad Andy
2013-12-11 11:48:48

Basement chilly this time of year?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 12:03:44

Out of excuses again?

 
 
Comment by toast on the coast
2013-12-11 18:29:37

Most homes if any have a basement in CA

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Comment by octal77
2013-12-11 12:16:49

Who gets paid first: Paying Mom and Dad rent or paying student loans?

Comment by rms
2013-12-12 07:22:00

Who gets paid first: Paying Mom and Dad rent or paying student loans?

+1 Good thing to face the facts of life.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-11 06:47:58

“‘People have decided that whatever happened in 2008 is not going to happen again,’ said Richard Lepre, a San Francisco- based loan officer. ‘There is not much concern about home values falling again.’”

Why not?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:01:13

That last sentence is a doozy….. and the best indicator yet.

 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 12:25:12

That’s most peoples history time frame of reference in central and southern California - 5 minute increments.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 07:28:14

Time to import some new debt slaves. The illegals are coming over with nothing but the shirts on their backs. However, that puts them in far better shape financially than most Walmart shoppers. They do not have the seven year vehicle loan on the vehicle that will last six years. They do not have the thirty year mortgage on the forty year old house. They do not have the credit card balances that will take decades to pay off. They do not have student loans. No, these people are potential gold mines for the banks. Fresh blood for the vampires.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:31:16

TRUTH^

 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 11:38:48

I love it!! Debt Burro’s!!

 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 12:05:05

They have no clue. Load ‘em up!! Give them all 780 credit scores.

 
Comment by 2banana
2013-12-11 18:50:22

I have been all through Mexico and Central America.

EVERY town (no matter how small) has huge advertisements for credit (signs, radio, TV, car announcements, etc.).

Credit for everything.

Cars, TVs, bikes, washing machines and yes - HOUSES.

there are mucho debt burros down there…

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-12-11 07:41:10

‘During the building boom that led to the Great Recession, commercial real estate developers loved the prospect of leasing offices in Inland Southern California to doctors, dentists, accountants and other professionals.’

‘And arguably no city carried the weight of this problem as much as Corona, which attracted many millions of investment dollars before the bottom fell out of the real estate market.’

‘Corona Corporate Centre was a campus of seven office condominium buildings within sight of Interstate 15 and right off the Ontario Avenue exit, a major commercial area. And, after five difficult years, a few weeks ago the complex’s real estate brokers announced that all the office suites have been sold and occupied by doctors, cosmetic specialists and other professionals.’

‘It was a long trip and, in a statement, Kevin Turner, senior vice president for the Voit Real Estate Services’ Irvine office, called it “an unfortunate case study of the financial collapse of 2008.”

‘In an interview, Turner said 2008 was when construction on the project commenced, and a large medical clinic bought one building, paying $315 per square foot. But sales stalled, the property fell into foreclosure and the lender, GE Capital, eventually sold it to Optimus Building Corp., a Canadian developer. Turner said Optimus paid $9 million for the property in an all-cash deal, and Voit then set out trying to find buyers.’

“We just rode the market down and went back to the basics,” Turner said.’

Comment by snake charmer
2013-12-11 08:30:55

I haven’t seen that particular “campus,” but in my opinion the utter sterility of office parks is enough to throw someone into a mild depression. Imagine going from a suburb of identical tract McMansions to that, day after day for years, in stop-and-go traffic on a congested interstate. We don’t have the physical hardships faced by our ancestors, but mentally, modernity is harder.

Comment by HBB_Rocks
2013-12-11 09:35:47

Say hello to the entire rest of the country starting about 100 miles west of the east coast.

Comment by snake charmer
2013-12-11 12:41:05

As Kunstler wrote, it is the geography of nowhere. One reason for it — not the only one– is that we design for cars rather than people.

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Comment by 2banana
2013-12-11 18:51:33

And then GE got bailed out by the obama administration…

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-12-11 07:45:12

When I saw this report, I check the Union Tribune. Nothing. Now why wouldn’t they cover their own UHS report?

‘Signs that San Diego’s residential real estate market is slowing showed up in a report released Monday by the San Diego Association of Realtors, though housing prices remain well above what they were last year.’

‘A total of 1,609 single-family homes were sold last month, down 15.6 percent from November 2012, and 11.3 percent below October of this year.’

‘The number of attached homes that changed hands in November totaled 761, down 19.4 percent from the same month last year, and 9.6 percent below this past October.’

‘The median cost of a single-family house in the region in November was $469,000, down 1.3 percent from October. ‘

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 07:50:00

The collapse is moving along nicely.

 
Comment by 2banana
2013-12-11 18:52:50

There is no collapse if we (the authorized and true journalists of America) do not report on it.

You gonna believe some blogger in his PJs???

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 08:04:49

Some interesting tax breaks expiring I wonder if they will be renewed:

http://money.msn.com/debt-management/c_galleryregular.aspx?cp-documentid=253130724

Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 08:12:33

The first two expiring tax breaks could have huge implications:

1. Cancellation of Debt Exclusion: Currently, individuals can exclude up to $2 million of COD income from qualified principal residence indebtedness that is canceled because of their financial condition or decline in value of the residence.

2. Mortgage Insurance Premiums Deduction: Individuals with an AGI less than or equal to $109,000 can treat qualified mortgage insurance premiums as home mortgage interest.

3. Personal Energy Property Credit: A credit is available for qualified energy efficiency improvements and expenditures to a taxpayer’s principal residence, with a lifetime cap of $500.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 09:35:14

The mortgage interest tax deduction will be on that list inside of 4 years.

 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 15:22:44

Mortgage Debt Relief Act - Subprime Joe sez: “Thanks!”
Mortgage Debt Relief Act - Sam Taxpayer sez: “Yer Welcome”

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
Comment by Bad Andy
2013-12-11 11:19:23

That’s what happens when you have an area of VERY high unemployment and a false recovery in the housing market. It’s also probably a glimpse at what’s to come in many markets.

6.5 months of supply is not considered over-supplied however.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 11:36:32

Don’t be silly…..

Its what happens when the price of a house is massively inflated.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:30:24

“Jumbos Surge 34% With Record ARMs Belying ’08 Anxiety: Mortgages”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-09/jumbos-surge-34-with-record-arms-belying-08-anxiety-mortgages.html

Unaffordablity reaches record levels. Collapse II ensues.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-12-11 08:33:09

‘My wife and I don’t need all this space for ourselves, so we’re probably going to downsize before the loan adjusts’

‘People have decided that whatever happened in 2008 is not going to happen again…There is not much concern about home values falling again’

‘we might as well do it now and enjoy it when the kids are here…We know we’re not going to lose money’

This is gonna be fun to watch.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-11 08:37:50

Instant submergence. The losses built in before you even look.

What I find spectacular is if you look at the rollercoaster of prices over the last 14 years, regardless of what price point anyone bought, they’re underwater.

Now that’s the racket of rackets.

 
Comment by Mugsy
2013-12-11 23:50:20

I panicked and fretted last time this happened and the posters here talked me through it. I will not panic this time as it is only more make believe courtesy of the FED.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2013-12-11 09:23:44

‘With Mel Watt at the head of a federal housing-finance regulator, it may be easier for borrowers to get cheaper mortgages and the recently flagging housing-market recovery could get a boost, according to a Wednesday analyst note.’

‘In May, the FHFA had limited the government sponsored enterprises’ acceptable purchases, starting Jan. 10, to those that meet guidelines deemed by regulators as particularly safe, keeping Fannie and Freddie away from mortgages such as those that are interest only or with 40-year terms. But Watt’s support of homeownership could mean that the FHFA allows the GSEs to to buy loans crafted to make purchases more affordable.’

“We believe Mr. Watt could revive mortgages designed to be more affordable…which could widen the pool of potential home buyers and spur additional housing demand,” McCanless wrote’

Interest only loans and 40 year mortgages. Bring it on Subprime Sam!

Comment by Bad Andy
2013-12-11 11:25:22

40 year mortgage on a $300K home is $1,348 per month assuming a 4.5% rate. Assuming the same rate a 30 year mortgage is $1,520. If you can’t afford it at 30, you still can’t afford it at 40.

Comment by octal77
2013-12-11 12:53:09

Should dovetail nicely with the 10 year car loan.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-11 13:19:49

You can turn that 10 year car loan into a thirty or forty year loan by financing it with the home equity loan.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by octal77
2013-12-11 14:11:23

Now *there* is a textbook example of financial engineering! Well done my friend.

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2013-12-11 13:11:04

Andy, consider the inside out view. If you can cough up $1,500 a month you can afford to pay another $30,000 for that dream house.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2013-12-11 18:55:31

people with interest only or with 40-year terms vote!

especially when they demand a bailout.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2013-12-11 11:40:14

“‘I have two kids who are teenagers who probably will be gone in seven years,’ said Pietrocin. ‘My wife and I don’t need all this space for ourselves, so we’re probably going to downsize before the loan adjusts.’”

Problem is. There are gonna be a bunch of other people just like you trying to unload their overpriced, energy hogging crap shacks!

Man plans. God laughs.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2013-12-11 12:14:05

more big gov
With Mel Watt at the head of a federal housing-finance regulator, it may be easier for borrowers to get cheaper mortgages and the recently flagging housing-market recovery could get a boost, according …
MarketWatch

 
Comment by DSquare
2013-12-11 17:53:14

I wonder how much of this new housing boom is being boosted by real estate agents.

Bay Area. Saw a house for $650K a couple months ago. Thought it a bit high for a 3/1 in OK but not great condition w/ a few problems. Agent said 5 decided not to bid. Two did. Went for $725K. I couldn’t figure out why.

Yesterday, my agent took me to a similar house, not quite as nice. Asking price $650K also. Would need about 30-40K to modernize. (Built 1919, last sold in the 1970s). He suggested I bid $750K. I won’t.

But it made me wonder if anybody has ever investigated the role real estate agents play in boosting housing prices. If every agent is like mine, insisting there is no way to get the property for less because “the market”, and there are people who can afford the mortgage or are rich enough to pay cash (although why anybody with that much cash lying around would want a house like that is a whole ‘nother matter), then we’ve got a bubble driven at least in part by agents whose commission depends on the sale price.

Comment by 2banana
2013-12-11 19:00:03

1. All Real Estate agents work for the seller (unless you have a buyer’s agent UNDER a signed contract).

2. All Real Estate agents get paid more if a house sells for more. Including the Real Estate agent you are working with who you think is on your side.

3. They do not work for you. They hate you if you ask a lot of question or make them work for their commission. They want you to make a deal as fast as possible for the highest price possible. They could care less if the house will fall down the day after the cash their check or you will be bankrupt in 3 months.

ABC - Always be closing.

 
 
Comment by doom
2013-12-12 10:43:59

No question, any commission sales person wants to make all they can get auto, housing, insurance whatever. You as a buyer either see a upside in the long run when you purchase a home.

This is why I follow these rules:

1 stay away from bad zip codes

2 stay away from cookie cutter fringe development especially with no shopping’ ( This rule doesn’t apply to custom or upscale homes those folks want seclusion)

3 Don’t buy a very, very, busy street behind your home.
( a neighborhood street is okay)

4 Check public records if you are allowed to, to see what they owe or if the home is paid off

5 The sales agent probably is not well versed in the area, most live away from the home they are showing, they don’t do your homework for you. Just use the agent for paper work, and lower commission rate.
(but don’t let a good deal pass because your low ball offer is rejected, offer higher if you know the neighborhood and zip code are good to excellent, in the long run you won’t lose.

 
Comment by doom
2013-12-12 11:00:43

Folks keep this is mind,

This administration probably the worse in modern history (maybe any history) and we are still standing.

Just think what will happen when all gets better, it always gets better in life, you have to think this way or just check into your local funny farm?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-12 11:15:09

Life is good as it is.

 
 
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