Investors Faced With Prices They Helped Create
Fox 13 reports on Utah. “Real Estate Researcher Zillow predicts Salt Lake City will be the hottest housing market nationwide in 2014. ‘I think there’s a lot of accuracy in the report,’ said Dave Frederickson, who is the president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. ‘There’s a lot of jobs coming and a lot of activity and positive buzz about the state of Utah.’ It’s not, ‘if you build it they will come.’ They are already en route.”
The Boulder County Business Report in Colorado. “The Boulder Valley is experiencing significant upward pressure on prices, as inventories decline and home builders struggle to keep pace with demand. ‘This spring is going to be even tougher than last spring,’ Re/Max of Boulder’s D.B. Wilson said. ‘When you think of the number of multiple offer transactions (that occurred last spring), I think that’s what we’re going to see again. … I think we’re going to have a strong market but I think we’re going to be fighting over the same listings.’”
For the first three quarters of 2013, the city’s median home price climbed to $642,000, while the average sales price reached $747,233. While five to seven months is considered a healthy inventory, Boulder County’s inventory of single-family homes stands at a mere 3.2 months. That’s a buyer’s market. And it’s one that likely will continue in the year ahead. So prospective homebuyers might want to jump in while they can, before prices escalate even further.”
The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. “The number of available homes hitting the market is up significantly compared to last year, both year-to-date and via monthly comparisons, according to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors. Other than January, each month this year has had a higher inventory of homes on the market than last year. And from June through October, it’s been about 10 percent higher.”
“From a Realtor’s perspective this is good, said Betty Blea who is both a Realtor and also manages Mesa Verde Homes, but from a builder’s perspective, it means that new homes are receiving more competition from existing resales, which can be tough in a market still on the rebound. ‘For new-home builders, it makes it harder because that means there’s more inventory on the market,’ she said. ‘I don’t know that we’ve got the demand right now for more.’”
From Vegas Inc in Nevada. “The median sales price of previously owned single-family homes in Southern Nevada in November was $183,000, down 1.1 percent from October, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, marking the first time in almost two years that prices fell month to month.” ‘I’m not surprised to see prices go down a bit this month,’ GLVAR President Dave Tina said in a news release. ‘We may see prices soften a bit more through the winter before hopefully bouncing back in the spring. We’ve been saying for months that it’s very hard to sustain the kind of price increases we’ve been seeing since 2012.’”
“Las Vegas’ housing market has been recovering fast this year, thanks in large part to Wall Street investors buying cheap homes in bulk to turn into rentals. Faced with rising prices they helped create, many investors have been scaling back their local purchases.”
From Arizona Newszap. “The Phoenix housing market is quietly ending the year, with a drop in demand and activity, according to a new new report from the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. ‘I anticipate sales will be way down in November and through the holidays, when some people even take their homes off the market until late January,’ says Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business. ‘We also anticipate a much slower rate of price appreciation in 2014 than the furious pace we have witnessed over the last two years.’”
“Investors and out-of-state buyers are also losing interest in the Phoenix area, he points out. The percentage of Maricopa County homes sold to out-of-state buyers was down from 20.1 last October to 16.4 this October. That’s the lowest percentage since January 2009, according to the release.”
From NBC News. “Phoenix and Las Vegas both saw rapid price appreciation due to high investor demand. For the past three years, single and institutional investors swooped into these highly distressed markets and began inhaling properties. The intention was to put most of them up for rent. Prices had fallen by well over half in both areas peak to trough, so the bargains were plentiful. Until they weren’t.”
“Inventories of homes for sale in Phoenix are up 40 percent from a year ago. ‘If I was a Phoenix real estate ‘investor’ sitting on the upside—or in the long process of readying dozens, hundreds, or thousands of houses for rent into a market about to get pounded for years with single-family rental supply—I would push the ’sell button’ on everything I could, immediately, on data such as these,’ said housing analyst Mark Hanson. ‘In fact, by the looks of the November supply and demand metrics, it’s already happening.’”
From Reuters. “After rapid gains, some of the hottest housing markets in the United States look like they are starting to roll over. In Phoenix, pending sales fell 32 percent in October, while the number of months (at current sales rates) of supply is up 111 percent from May. In Sacramento, the October figures are equally grim, with year-on-year supply up 93 percent and sales down 20 percent. Volume isn’t slumping just in the classic boom and bust towns. Washington, DC house sales fell 14 percent in November, while sales in Silicon Valley, now in the midst of a technology IPO boom, fell 20.9 percent in November.”
“Mark Hanson, a mortgage banking veteran, argues that as supply and volume usually lead price, we could be on the verge of a substantial downdraft in values. ‘I feel like it’s 2006-2007 again,’ Hanson said. ‘Data is everywhere but nobody is looking, or wants to look.’”
Hanson…a veteran mortgage banker….there’s an industry getting beat to a pulp by tech. He is being slowly eliminated….so he believes the housing industry is too.
The Sacramento market bears no relationship to 2007 trends. Prices are less than 70% of 2007, there are no foreclosures, and the economy is improving. The population is growing and there is very little new housing construction.
Hanson says “There are signs everywhere but no one is paying attention”. I agree……the economy is improving and markets are stabilizing…he just can’t see it.
Now JingleBalls……
Sacramento housing demand is collapsing no differently than the rest of California……. The reason is clear; resale housing is priced at a 225% premium over historic norm.
And once again and typical of Mark Hanson, his forecast is dead on.
HA says “….Mark Hanson, his forecast is dead on.”
Dead on…..Arrival. DOA. Kaput. Final. Done.
And he’ll continue to deliver accurate forecast despite your wishes.
Just like the not so distant future of the housing market.
“The Sacramento market bears no relationship to 2007 trends. Prices are less than 70% of 2007, there are no foreclosures, and the economy is improving.”
This is a bald-faced LIE. Hey everybody, we’ve got a TROLL here.
Sacramento used house for sale inventory in 2006, 2007 and 2008 averaged over 15,000 units.
2013 inventory is under 5,000 units. That stat has some meaning. People can say “inventory is up 70% from the start of the year” (5,000 units, up from 2900) and get all twitter painted, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. This market is nothing like the bubble in 2006, 2007 and 2008.
With 4.4 million excess empty and defaulted houses in California alone, the state remains radioactive in terms of housing.
Tell your friends.
Prices falling on 1/3 of the volume. What comes next?
“What comes next?”
I come next, to reclaim what is mine.
To reclaim what was mine all along.
“For the first three quarters of 2013, the city’s median home price climbed to $642,000, while the average sales price reached $747,233. While five to seven months is considered a healthy inventory, Boulder County’s inventory of single-family homes stands at a mere 3.2 months. That’s a buyer’s market.
What the realtor meant is that it’s a liars market.
Where FHA is yanking $100k per house price supports across the country and resale housing priced 250% higher than typical, your chances of getting burned from buying a house right now are right around 100%.
And remember…. Materials, labor, lot and profit is right around $55 per sqaure foot irrespective of location. Residual value(after losses to depreciation) of a used house is typically a third less than that.
Don’t forget…. houses depreciate…. rapidly.
This is the final curtain. The last frame of the game where the pins(suckers) are all set up. Don’t be one. The scene is made to look innocuous, the threat obscured, the future so certain that every last sucker will be had. You can enter but you cannot leave.
What we really know for certain?
Those who bought houses from 1998-current(all underwater or will be very soon), and this new raft of debt-junkies getting sucked in and signing up for debt-enslavement are the foundation for the crushing weight of the collapse just getting under way. After they are washed out and flushed from the system, a sound foundation will be cast made of dramatically lower and more affordable housing prices.
Beware of getting sucked into the housing machine. You will be crushed by it.
And now, the end is near
And so I face the final curtain
My friend, I’ll say it clear
I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain
I’ve lived a life that’s full
I traveled each and ev’ry highway
And more, much more than this, I did it my way
Sales cratering in Phoenix in the last few months isn’t a seasonal demand variation I don’t think. That’s just when the weather gets nicest.
It’s the price y’all.
When people own houses that they couldn’t afford to buy, that is not a normal market. When this is rampant, there is a bubble.
This never corrected last time but it will eventually.
I’m seeing the same thing happening in the Tucson rental market. There’s a TON of places to rent. Surplus of rental units and more are coming on the market.
I’m also seeing more than a few SFRs for rent, and the monthly rents are well above what one would pay for a mortgage. So, there they sit. Month after month.
But I thought you could rent for a fraction of the cost of buying.
Those are wish rents. Wish is why they are sitting empty.
There’s a wish rental four blocks away from here. Place has been vacant for more than a year.
Poor, poor Blackstone.
Las Vegas, too. Still waiting…
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/the-rent-is-too-damn-high-jimmy-mcmillan
per city data dot com, estimated median household income in boulder in 2011 was $57,112.
if you took out households under age 25 to account for students at uc it would be higher, but not high enough to justify median home prices of $642,000.
boulder must be special.
boulder must be special ??
Its beautiful thats for sure….
It’s actually brown and ugly a lot of the year.
boulder must be special.
You have no idea :-P. Better bring your Coexist sticker, though…
A Coexist sticker doesn’t demonstrate real commitment to Social Justice.
My ex-girlfriend Rain who lives in Boulder has a Coexist tattoo.
She needs a husband named Beaux. But I’m sure she and you NEVER heard that.
Methinks her parents were hitting the bong too hard.
Why not two of those coexist tattoos on her “twins” so that they would actually coexist?
You have no idea :-P. Better bring your Coexist sticker, though…
On a Subaru Outback. Then you’re official.
KEEEEEEEEEEEEEYRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASH!!!
What was that?!
You know that house you made the mistake of buying? Well the value of it just fell through the floor leaving a smoldering moon-crater.
Beware reading public. Beware.
Yes my house I bought in ‘90 cratered every year through ‘96 - a fact.
To be replayed by houses bought in 2011 in Phoenix
THAT was a good one!
“Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop for a Third Straight Month”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-11/manhattan-apartment-rents-drop-for-a-third-straight-month.html
Considering rental rates are falling nationally, this should be no surprise.
Nice!
“Jumbos Surge 34% With Record ARMs Belying ’08 Anxiety: Mortgages”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-09/jumbos-surge-34-with-record-arms-belying-08-anxiety-mortgages.html
Unaffordablity reaches record levels. Collapse II ensues. It’s 2006/7 once again.
Taking on $700,000 at 55!!!?!? Ouch! Mr. Banker likes ‘em middle age and leveraged to the hilt!
Vegas Housing Market Collapsing
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-11/las-vegas-housing-demand-has-crashed-while-supply-surging
“FHA Loan in 2014 – Maximum Loan Limits to Decrease Over $100,000″
http://www.loansafe.org/fha-loan-in-2014-maximum-loan-limits-to-decrease-over-100000
An automagic $100k price reduction of houses on the east and west coasts.
I like magic.
‘Home buyers nationwide and in Phoenix may find themselves scrambling to get in escrow before Jan. 1, when the Federal Housing Administration’s lower loan limits take effect.’
‘For borrowers in Maricopa County, the largest FHA loan available next year will be $271,050 — almost 22 percent less than today’s limit of $346,250. The cap is being reduced to $271,050 in every other county statewide as well, with the exception of Coconino, where the FHA loan limit will drop from $450,000 to $362,250.’
Coconino is where Flagstaff is. Guess what? The median prices here are almost exactly higher than the rest of the state by the amount of these caps. Even though incomes are significantly lower.
How many realters are telling their customers to hold tight for a few months to let prices adjust downward to correct for lowering the FHA loan limits?
Interesting you mention that.
The realturd I talked to yesterday said just that. “Big changes are on the radar. Sell’em if you got’em.”
Those poor Kalifornian’s who bought in the last two years. *POOF* $100,000 gone in a flash.
But, HA, realtors are liars, so it must be time to buy!
Why do rich folks get especially huge federal loan guarantees? Out here in California, households that are sufficiently wealthy to buy homes that cost over half a million dollars can still get a federal loan guarantee of over $600K.
People in Coconino are poorer than Phoenix. High house prices will do that. Those prices also call to mean old mister supply and demand:
‘in south Flagstaff…Canyon del Rio, Little America Neighborhood and Juniper Point…will contain 4,500 homes along with shops and offices on 800 newly developed acres. Realtor Ann Heitland says that faster projected growth in the Southwest than IN the rest of country is creating an optimistic attitude among homebuilders. There is also a ready market for more second homes developing in Flagstaff at prices between $350,000 and $450,000 as the Valley economy recovers.’
‘That’s not the market, however, that zoning attorney Nick Wood at Juniper Point sees for his project. “It is being designed for people who live in Flagstaff, not second-homes,” he said.’
What kind of jobs are in Flagstaff? I was there a decade ago, and it reminded me a little bit of Bend.
in south Flagstaff…Canyon del Rio, Little America Neighborhood and Juniper Point…will contain 4,500 homes along with shops and offices on 800 newly developed acres.
I hope that Little America does not sell all the walking trails around its facility. It is what I most like about it.
There are a few large employers; Gore, the university. But Flagstaff has the same situation I encountered when I first moved to N AZ. I’d ask people where they worked, and they’d tell me about 2 or 3 jobs they had. They call it poverty with a view.
It’s a lot like Lake Tahoe I’m sure. The rich people own all the real estate, and the worker bees live hand to mouth.
It doesn’t seem like the FHA reductions are being applied on a percentage basis. I think a lot of CA areas are only taking pretty close to the same hit as PHX, a hundred K or so, give or take, despite houses costing twice as much.
with the exception of Coconino, where the FHA loan limit will drop from $450,000 to $362,250 ??
So loan limits are still adjusted for median ??
‘During the summer of 2013, sellers were in the driver’s seat, but as autumn rolled around, sales begin to slow, prices stabilized and buyers began flexing their muscle. In December 2012, there were approximately 800 total properties on the market in the Northern Arizona Multiple Listing Service (MLS); at the end of November 2013, there are more than 960. With this increase and competition between sellers, it may well be a good time for buyers to make their move.’
This is actually a form of “taper”.
I’d be scrambling to get out of ANY deal right now knowing this.
Good point! Sure, you could buy now for at the higher guaranteed price, but later on, you couldn’t sell for it.
Is this going to be a long negative feedback loop? Are loan limits going down just now because prices came down 5 years ago?
“Coconino is where Flagstaff is. Guess what? The median prices here are almost exactly higher than the rest of the state by the amount of these caps. Even though incomes are significantly lower.”
This reminds me of San Luis Obispo, California. A 3/2 spec in SLO costs nearly the same as San Jose despite a median household income that is roughly half or less. Equity locusts.
‘How the city of Aspen builds, sells and subsidizes duplex homes for Phase II of Burlingame Ranch will be largely based on the demand for affordable housing in the $750,000 price range. At Monday’s Aspen City Council meeting, council member Adam Frisch said there’s a gap in the housing program, where dual-income families make too much money to qualify for the upper-category units but can’t afford the million-dollar homes on the free market.’
‘The city will build six single-family units at Burlingame II, four of which will be offered as 2,200-square-foot half duplexes with garages. The council has been presented with two different approaches for building those duplexes. The first gives the city control over design and construction, while the second gives the buyer control. If the city were to build the units, raw estimates show a price tag in excess of $1 million to the buyer.’
‘Cohen said that price tag is illogical, given the fact that 3,000-square-foot homes have been sold for around $1 million at North Forty. “This product at over a million dollars doesn’t make sense,” Cohen said, adding that the million-dollar amount stretches people to their borrowing limit.’
‘Cohen said that if he were to build the duplex on his own, based on the city’s affordable-housing lot prices, he could make his $750,000 price range work.’
@Ben Jones
I had a weekday morning appointment in Aspen last month. This was just after Independence Pass closed for the winter, so we had to drive through Glenwood Springs to get there.
It took us an hour and fifteen minutes to drive the 41 miles from Glenwood to Aspen (on a 4 lane highway). The Lucky Duckies who keep Aspen’s service economy afloat get to make this traffic-choked commute every day, some come from even farther away in Rifle or Parachute.
The 0.1%ers who “commute” to Aspen do so via jet, with a fleet of black window-tinted GMC Suburbans at the Aspen airport to transport them in comfort and privacy from the eyes of the common rabble.
The 0.1%ers who “commute” to Aspen do so via jet, with a fleet of black window-tinted GMC Suburbans at the Aspen airport to transport them in comfort and privacy from the eyes of the common rabble.
It must be so pleasant, to be constantly surrounded by bodyguards: When you shop, when you dine at a restaurant, when you go out for a casual stroll, when you travel, when you sleep.
I heard something on the radio that I believe. I normally don’t. But the co-hosts were discussing how a Beverly Hills store clerk can recognize which of their customers were wealthy. The co-hosts had several callers making guesses. All wrong. The co-hosts said the wealthy customers at Beverly Hills shops wear sloppy clothes, sweat pants, etc. The other customers - those without money - dress for appearance.
I remember nearly ten years ago a colleague of mine who claims to live in Brentwood showed me his watch. I could not tell what it cost because I wear a $32 watch that I use to keep time on my swim intervals. The colleague told me snobbishly that he gets the best restaurant seats because of his watches. Ha Ha! I’m thinking he goes to expensive restaurants so that he has to pay huge tips to the staff who fawn over him and his wife for money. And after they leave, the staff is happy they got overpaid by my colleague. That is how it works. I did not tell him that.
This got me thinking about the unrealistic James Bond movies. Finally after all these years I get it. A spy who drives a $250,000 Aston Martin thinking he has the perfect concealment.
In reality the perfect concealment for someone who is wealthy, as I explained above, is not to appear wealthy. Would James Bond’s adversaries be more fooled by a dude in a t-shirt, jeans, and Fedora driving a $20,000 Kia or by a suave Brit in a $250,000 Aston Martin and wearing a Rolex?
I noticed in one of the newest Bond movies he drove a Ford sedan at one point. So maybe the producers are starting to realize what it means to go “undercover.”
Sold both of the winter homes.
One cash, no appraisal or inspection.
Southern Californian wanting a second home.
I got $200k for a house I bought in 1998 for 61k.
Sold it turnkey with a $18k dining room and a $12k sofa plus $900 lamps and such. Used, the furniture isn’t worth the bother to consign…We would have cleared $5k tops when consignment takes 50%.
I got $175k for the house I bought in 2006 at the height.
Paid $175 for it, dumped $60k into it. Also sold as turnkey.
We looked each other in the eye the day we bought it and asked “are we willing to loses $100k on this?” We were. So oddly, this one is the “winner”, not the one we sold for 3.5 times purchase price.
$130psft for the $175k house, $110 for the ,$61k house.
They cost us $1200 per month to own…free and clear.
There’s some facts for you all.
I was “out” before the fall.
You’re fortunate your losses weren’t much much larger.
Remember…. houses are ongoing expenses that depreciate rapidly. They’re never “investments”.
I congratulate you on your winnings, but why are people so eager to claim success, or investment acumen, when this market is so heavily manipulated? Perhaps you should kick back some of that money to Washington, D.C.
You lost 60K. How is that the winner?
$12,000.00 retail for a sofa?
Only suckers pay retail.
Scary numbers, on house #1, the 61K fifteen years ago sold for 200K this year.
We’ll assume 4% interest for 61K for the whole time because most people rent money from the bank or they could have invested the cash somehow so either way there’s an annual cost of tying up capital. So 61000 * 0.04 * 15 = 37K to rent the money from the bank or whatever.
Since its an investment and not a “home” thats 20% cap gains tax, right? So about 28K of fedgov tax.
2013-1998=15 years of ownership. Regardless of imaginary local house costs, cop salaries cost the same, etc, and they get about $3500/yr prop tax outta every resident where I live. I think I get my moneys worth so I’m OK with that. So 53K proptax
I cannot imagine a house costing less than $12K/yr for maint and utilities and all the little expenses (like twenty thousand dollar dining room tables in a sixty thousand dollar house, huh?) So thats $180K just to keep the lights on, water flowing, sewer draining, holes patched, roof and appliances and all manner of stuff thats free if you rent.
So lets figure your “profit”. Revenue 200K, minus 28K of cap “gains”, minus 53K of proptax, minus 180K of expenses, minus 37K interest, net negative 98K. Loss of almost seven grand per year. Affordable and survivable, but harsh.
OUCH!!!!
That’s my point.
Big losers, though that’s not perceived by average folks as such.
The $60k loss was not the $100k loss we had expected, therefore a win.
We make big money but live fairly modestly.
Lake Havasu is the town.
Oddest market in the world.
Poorest city in America.
Most boats
Rv
Hotrod
Per capita in the states.
Maybe swimming pools too.
I’ve been enjoying all the “taper” talk recently. Especially in light of this:
Warning: PDF
http://wpcarey.asu.edu/sites/default/files/uploads/center-real-estate-research-and-practice/full-report-201311.pdf
‘The institutional buying spree peaked in the
July 2012 at 831 homes across Maricopa County
and then declined to a low point of 416 in February. Demand has been dramatically
weaker in October as the top 9 institutions
only added a net 63 parcels to their inventory.’
The damage is done; Bernanke blew it up, and now it’s falling.
So what’s with these fancy boys and all their wall street money? Didn’t they say they were in it for the long haul? They are just gonna rent these houses, right? Now there’s more to chose from, prices are lower. And they pull back by over 90%?
It’s almost like they were speculating all along.
Anyway, check out the long report if you have time. Orr must be despondent, as he sees what an ass he’s been and now everybody will know it.
(wh)Orr has been on the take for years now.
What these whizbang investors seem to forget is that there are only so many tenants out there. And you can’t make money with an empty rental house.
They have fantasies of naming their rental price as hordes of wannabe tenants blow up their cell phone and e-mail. Reality sets in over time as the overpriced POS ad rots away on Craigslist, with nary a prospect. What’s hilarious is that just one month’s vacancy will eat away most, if not all, that inflated rent. Two months and you’ve lost almost two years. Three months vacancy and the numbers just get ridiculously bad. These people have no idea what they’re doing.
No idea of what they’re doing is putting it mildly. This area is lousy with rentals that are losing a fortune for their owners.
They think that they know what they are doing.
Option 1: Treat houses like stocks. Buy low, sell high, buy instantly, sell instantly. But they failed to realize that houses, unlike stocks, don’t live in their CPU’s rent free. The pesky houses just can’t seem to move to where the jobs are. And houses have a whale of a fee and tax hit.
Option 2: treat rentals like mortgages: sell rental income stream bonds like safe MBS. Again, they fail to realize the original mortgages gained their reputation of safety by aggressive pre-filtration, while renters have a shady reputation for a reason.
Any retirement fund manager that buys into this BS needs to be, er, cruelly and unusually punished.
Option 3. *Think* before saying outlandish stuff.
‘they fail to realize the original mortgages gained their reputation of safety by aggressive pre-filtration, while renters have a shady reputation for a reason’
Hmm. So why is there an army of contractors like me, in every city in every state that work to haul off rat infested trash, fix busted walls, doors, windows, replace stolen appliances, heaters, AC units, left behind by these reputable house owners, and no such army exists for the shady renters houses?
I suspect they knew what kind of a scam they were running. The game was in extracting a skim from a wave of hot money.
House sales fall across Southern California
http://www.dailynews.com/business/20131216/home-sales-fall-across-southern-california
Southern California Home Sales Dip In November
Monday, December 16, 2013
By Tom Fudge
People trying to buy homes in Southern California were up against high prices and a lack of homes made available by foreclosures last month.
That meant home sales were down 14.2 percent in November, compared to the previous month. Sales were also down 10.4 percent compared to November 2012, according to the latest housing market report from San Diego-based Dataquick.
The slim supply of homes for sale, which was bad for buyers, remained good news for sellers. The median home price in Southern California was nearly 20 percent higher, in November, than it was a year before. Dataquick reports the median sale price has remained steady for six months.
The slump in sales is due to several factors. Some owners are still unwilling to sell because they are “upside down,” meaning they owe more on their homes than the houses are worth. There are fewer foreclosures and less activity by investors who are paying cash. Much of it comes down to the old rule of supply and demand.
“The inventory of homes for sale still falls short of demand,” said DataQuick president John Walsh, who added the high prices will eventually prompt people to sell. “This spring could bring a substantial surge in inventory as more homeowner look to cash in on higher values.”
…
“Home” prices are going into the bowl in smaller and faster circles toward the center.
Prescott UHS recommends new houses for investors:
‘I am writing this before I leave to go to the annual National Association of Realtors Convention in San Francisco. I always learn at these conventions and also hope to bring back ideas to Prescott.’
‘First, something new like new home construction for rental and retirement incomes may turn into a worthwhile investment. More single family homes across the nation are being built for rental income. Many investors can no longer find enough foreclosures or short sales left to convert to rental units. In many areas. new construction for rentals is the new thing.’
‘What a great way to double or triple your retirement income and, guess who pays most of your extra retirement funds—–some one else! Could this be any better? You can figure that one out for your own situation.’
‘I highly recommend this now!’
An eery voice raised from 2005. This guys sounds like he just jumped off the car lot into the NAR web.
Our own little derelict post industrial to luxury rental conversion project continues to be an abject failure.
‘With the city’s close proximity to jobs, well-known Phoenix Valley economist Elliott Pollack said the housing market in Maricopa is “about to really take off.” “All homebuilders that I speak to speak highly of Maricopa,” Pollack said Friday, following a presentation at a Pinal Partnership event.’
‘Pollack said he thinks Maricopa will do “exceptionally well” during the next couple of years with the housing market bouncing back. The only drawback for the city, he said, is traffic on State Route 347.’
“Whatever you can do to relieve that situation certainly helps,” Pollack said. “The more people come in, the situation’s going to get worse, not better.”
Gawd…. a gaggle of goo goo eyed groveling grunts with pom poms.
There were several stories about Maricopa in the 2008 time frame, including this one from the New York Times, that portrayed the town as soulless place, full of unoccupied tract houses and stranded in the middle of exurbia with no cultural life to speak of other than hanging out at the supermarket.
__________________________/
“Once the sun went down, the street was very dark and very quiet; the blank faces of empty houses were only occasionally lit by garage lights. There was nowhere to go and no one on the street. The brick walls on both sides of my house meant I couldn’t see my neighbors and they couldn’t see me. So I began to spend my evenings at Fry’s, the supermarket in the main strip mall on Highway 347. Fry’s had couches and wireless Internet and a flat-screen TV — and, more important, people. As it turned out, I was not the only person in Maricopa who thought Fry’s was a pretty great place to spend an evening.
…
Shawn Bellamy, a 19-year-old store manager, came by to offer his two cents about Maricopa. “The only thing good is Fry’s. Without Fry’s, I wouldn’t have met anyone here. It’s just slit-your-throat-and-wrists boring.”
Although Howard and Roberts both live in Palo Brea, they had not met each other until they started to work at Fry’s. “Everyone makes friends at this store,” Howard explained. “This is the hangout for Maricopa.”
http://tinyurl.com/l9wscjr
That was an excellent article.
i like Chase Field. I like the Scottsdale greenbelt. Lots of people there. I have a greenbelt trail in my part of S.E. Phoenix as well. I have some good watering holes to go to down my street. Roy’s Hawaiian Fusion, for one. I can always find a great fitness pool for uninterrupted lap swimming.
And in the winter all sorts of mountainbiking in the metro area mountain parks.
Why would I need a house in Phoenix when I have a great rental there to return to at a fraction of the monthly payments on a house? And I can find another open parking space for a second car in my complex (it’s kind of a stretch, but do-able) - in case I go for that luxury MB.
‘Pollack said he thinks Maricopa will do “exceptionally well”
I know that place this guy is totally lying
Again…. definition.. What does he mean by “well”…..
‘The only drawback for the city, he said, is traffic on State Route 347…’The more people come in, the situation’s going to get worse, not better.’
Yeah, so builders are going to put up more houses, more people come in and it’s going to get worse? Arizona isn’t going to do anything about that highway cuz they’re BROKE!
There’s a mountain of gold just sitting there. All we need is a highway to get to it.
‘For borrowers in Maricopa County, the largest FHA loan available next year will be $271,050 — almost 22 percent less than today’s limit of $346,250. The cap is being reduced to $271,050 in every other county statewide as well,”
Heard on NPR this am about all the billions Bernanke has made available to Banks and how the cash just sits there in the bank loaned back to the Fed at .25% and doesn’t get loaned out enough to save the real economy.
Some guy goes on to say there is just a low demand for money at least from credit worthy borrowers and small business.. credit worthy borrowers means they need good jobs… small business not afraid to expand. Wants to quit paying banks .25%
Pushing on a string
Why we felt the need to give a long-term taxpayer subsidy to these entities will be a question for future generations to answer, because right now it can’t even be discussed among American political leadership.
My opinion, somewhat in advance of the part of the year where we offer predictions for the future, is that the next collapse is going to completely wipe out whatever degree of legitimacy our political institutions still possess, because they’ve stupidly tied their credibility to this working. Once that happens, everything will be up for grabs.
“While five to seven months is considered a healthy inventory, Boulder County’s inventory of single-family homes stands at a mere 3.2 months. That’s a buyer’s market.”
When I first read that I assumed that the person saying it just got his wires crossed and accidentally said ‘buyer’s’ instead of ’seller’s’. Turns out he actually meant what he said. What an odd statement.
Okay here we go again, last 4 days in the 85262 zip 4 houses sold from 899 to $1.1m. No investor bought these houses to my knowledge.
What we are getting is a regular market of buyers who actually want to live in houses for at least 7 years.
To bad for you investors, folks are not going to give away property to make you happy anymore. They will wait now to sell, a average of 111 DOM for these homes to sell, which isn’t bad, in that price point.
Why buy your run down dumps at inflated prices when we build for less?
Fine if they wait and sit on it. Other assets will go way up while their house values crater. Could wait 7 years. Could wait 20 years. Could decide to just “throw my money away on rent until I die” - but then I would have far more left over money I would not know what to do with it. Exotic women? Okay I would know what to do with it.