You win by renting while the credit bubble collapses.
You win by selling your biggest stock gains in a 5 year bull market while pundits are encouraging the peanut gallery now is the time to buy stocks.
You win by accumulating T-bills, cash, and precious metals while no one else wants to buy them.
You win by having 0 debt at the end of every month.
Also thanks to Oxide for a few days of honesty back a month ago for that NYT Buy versus rent calculator. It shows renting is always better than buying if you want an upscale house.
Home Buyers Are Scarce, So Renters Take Their Place
Kendrick Brinson for The New York Times
Ramika Archibald owns a home near Atlanta. She is the president of the homeowners’ association in her subdivision.
By SHAILA DEWAN
Published: December 4, 2013
ATLANTA — Homeownership was out of reach for Tishri Hyman, a single mother of two with a good job but less than stellar credit. But three years ago, she found the next best thing: a brand new house, complete with a fireplace, that she could rent.
The New York Times
“It was just absolutely magnificent to be able to live in a new home,” she said. “It gave me a sense of independence. It provided something for me that was probably missing.”
Ms. Hyman and her daughters moved into what had been a model home in one of the many boom-time subdivisions around Atlanta that were originally intended for first-time buyers. But now thousands of similar single-family homes are being built for tenants, rather than owners.
Around Atlanta, new five-bedroom, three-bath homes that once might have sold for a little less than $200,000 are now on offer for monthly rents of $1,300 — granite countertops and walk-in pantries included.
Building homes to lease, rather than sell, has begun to make sense to home builders and investors because the pool of qualified first-time home buyers has shrunk even as the price of buying existing homes has risen enough to make new construction worthwhile again.
…
” It shows renting is always better than buying if you want an upscale house.”
I just went back and played with the calculator again, using a $600K house and a rent estimate of $2069/month vs. a 4% mortgage with 10% down. It’s true that renting is better than buying if the house never increases in value, or if rent doesn’t increase above 3% a year. But if you live in an area where house prices increase and rent increases even more, then buying is better.
San Luis Obispo County, California
-median home sales price: $415,000
-median household income: $58,630
This area also has badly skewed rent v ownership ratios. Realize that the median home is a 50s 3/1 w/950-sqft. A real 3/2 ranch costs $600K plus! Try a search on zip: 93401
Like most coastal cities up and down the coast of California, particularly the upscale areas, it is far cheaper to rent than to own. Rent an ocean view and the legendary weather of the California coast for a fraction of what the FBs are paying.
A former colleague of mine lives in Gilbert. He’s governed by his wife’s taste in homes but personally he told me no house is worth over $200,000. Their’s must be somewhere north of $500,000.
When is it ever worth buying a house around $500,000? 1) When it’s no more than 1/6 of your net worth - your net worth must be at least $3,000,000, 2) It’s not in a subsidized neighborhood, 3) all your neighbors own their houses (have no mortgage payment). But the $2,500,000 you have left over should be mostly in stock index funds and you should have a big chunk of T-bills and Treasury Notes.
Do these calculators take into account tax deductions for mortgage and property tax? It may not matter for the working class heroes making $25K. For evil rich people making $250K, it does.
Oh lord, slith, I wish you were banned. We have been over this ad infinitum. This is what characterizes you as a troll. You make the same “points” over and over again, no matter how many times people provide you with concrete numbers and trustworthy links to counter your DUMB posts.
Comment by MightyMike
2013-12-23 12:06:42
If people who repeated themselves a lot were a lot were banned, there would be very few participants remaining here.
Comment by scdave
2013-12-23 12:49:04
who repeated themselves a lot were a lot were banned, there would be very few participants remaining here ??
Nothing wrong with repeating your position to a post if it is supported by fact, or what are suggested to be facts or even a personal opinion that is postured like an adult…
Its the childish post repeated over & over that are annoying and contribute nothing to the blog…The personal attacks to attempt to engage response is also school yard banter..
“Get what you can get for your rapidly depreciating house today because it’s going to be much less tomorrow for decades to come”
You better believe it Mister.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2013-12-23 15:14:26
LOL! So now asking a question = repeating myself. Nice. This is from the place where “BUYING A HOUSE IS FINANCIAL SUICIDE” is said about 1000 times a week.
OK here it goes again…someone making $25K isn’t renting high end stuff. The people that do earn a lot of money, ergo they pay a lot of taxes, ergo, they lose out on a huge amount of tax deduction by renting.
Mobile homes…except for the small price bump they get from all other housing being overpriced. But it’s small…they are the least sexy investment in the world I think. But mine has quite the rate of return.
It was caused by global warming, everything is. I am going to seek a $2 million dollar grant to “prove” that global warming will increase the incidence of jock itch.
Several of the shops used to sell around $3,000 to $4,000 of pizza on any given Broncos game day, but that has jumped to $5,000 to $6,000 a day since Manning took over. That’s the equivalent of selling roughly 60 pizzas an hour.
Other nearby Papa John’s that are not owned by Manning are not feeling the “Peyton Factor,” as the employees call it, with no reports of improvement of pizza sales.
Each of Manning’s Papa John’s offers discounts on the Mondays after a Broncos win and, so far, the Broncos are undefeated (also thanks to Peyton Manning).
Manning purchased the 21 Papa John’s franchises around the state last October and his timing couldn’t have been better — just two weeks later Colorado voters passed Amendment 64 which legalized marijuana for recreational use.
Another thing that goes hand in hand is marijuana and the munchies, and pizza is classic stoner cuisine.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2013-12-23 09:18:44
“Each of Manning’s Papa John’s offers discounts on the Mondays after a Broncos win and, so far, the Broncos are undefeated (also thanks to Peyton Manning).”
The Broncos are undefeated? That’s news to the 3 teams that have defeated them this season.
“Collapsing housing demand is an interesting phenomenon. Clearly demographics is driving it and is exacerbated by massively inflated prices as a result of all the fraud going on.
You can put a $50k price tag on your 15 year old Honda Civic but there are no buyers.”
Collapsing demand and skyrocket supply…. it doesn’t get better than that.
Looking beyond his nutty religious garbage (he assumes everyone of his listeners goes to church or a synagogue) Dave Ramsey has some valuable lines “Debt is dumb. Live like no one else so you can live like no one else” however Mr. Ramsey does not realize a paid off crapshack is a crapshack. He is blind by Real Estate. I will only focus on the two phrases I like.
ALL debt is dumb. I enjoy being a creditor. I lend money to the government (federal and Arizona) and I provide capital for companies to grow (stocks).
Not knocking your approach, but the system is rigged as much as possible to provide massive incentives for households to mire themselves in debt and to squeeze the return on savings for everyone except for too-big-to-fail banks. The latter are in the cat bird seat, as they can borrow short at near zero percent and lend long to Uncle Sam at nearly four percent. I haven’t checked this carefully, but I believe we are currently near the widest T-bond yield curve spread from 3 mos to 30 years on record.
“When is housing massively overpriced? It’s quite simple. When the price of the house is in excess of the cost to build (lot, materials, labor and profit), less depreciation for a used house.”
Exactly. No need to confuse it. Our cost to build a SFR is right around $55/sq ft, with profit.
The Pimps will start throwing out the old “things are going to pick up in the Spring” pitch any second now. Glossing over the cratering that is currently occurring as a simple pause or slowdown.
Once a bubble psychology market starts to drop, look out below. This is happening now. You will only be able to read about it in 6 months when the main stream catches up. Anyone who buys now is an utter fool.
This recovery won’t wait until Spring. Saturday, February 8th (weekend after the Souper Bowl) is when the bidding wars and love letters to sellers promising to feed the squirrels will resume.
Mark your calendar. I learned this from a Realtor who knows.
Don’t believe they hype. This is a good time to purchase a home. Any realtor worth their salt can assist you in finding and also negotiating a great price. There are a lot of haters on here that will dispute that, but there are still good realtors out there that go the exta mile. If you are even considering a home purchase in the next few months, now is the time to get the ball rolling. Contact your local realtor for the next steps. We are here to help.
1. There has never been a better time to buy.
2. Real estate always goes up.
3. All real estate is local.
4. Buy now or get priced out forever.
5. Renting is just throwing away money.
6. Suzanne researched it.
7. You only live once!
Rent for thirty years and be left with nothing but an empty bank account.
Buy a home, build equity with every mortgage payment, deduct the interest from your taxes, and with normal annual appreciation of home prices by 10% (and even more in some markets), after thirty years own a paid off home worth ten times the original purchase price.
Comment by Get Stucco
2013-12-23 09:24:02
If you are too dumb to save, you can blow all the money you save by renting, not owning.
Or if you are over-the-top dumb, you can think you are saving by buying a house, only to see it all go down the drain through depreciation or, worse yet, foreclosure.
Thanks Pimp, but I’ll pass until the massive drop in FHA loan limits take effect after January 2014.
While you are here though, feel free to confess your sins from the last bubble popping. Glad to offer some approbation over all the people whose lives you ruined pushing your fraud through 09.
The haters have come out in full force today. That’s ok. We provide a service just as many other industries do. If you don’t see a need to use a realtor, nobody is forcing you to. There are plenty of people that do need our services though.
Who has lied? If you got a crappy deal from a car dealership, do you blame the the salesman? Do your research… Realtors can point you in a good direction and offer negitiaions with no obligation to purchase anything. In the end it is up to the buyer. Sorry I don’t buy that overused “realtors are liars line”. Oh wait, realtors forced people to buy homes that were out of their price range. The gun to their head was what sealed the deal. hahaha
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-23 09:25:26
“Who has lied?”
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2013-12-23 08:13:06
A Northwest Side real estate agent and former banker has been arrested on fraud charges in an alleged scheme to hoodwink his own bank into illegally lending $650,000 to a Chicago police lieutenant for the purchase of an apartment building, then keeping a large chunk of the cash for himself.
…
U.S. District Judge Peter J. Messitte sentenced Michael Abobor, 38, of Glenn Dale, to 51 months in prison, followed by five years of supervised release, for wire fraud in connection with a mortgage fraud scheme involving intended losses of at least $2 million.
Messitte also entered an order that Abobor forfeit $2,026,205 and pay restitution of $1,832,650.
According to his plea agreement, in the spring and summer of 2007, Abobor, a licensed Realtor, submitted fraudulent loan applications for the purchase of homes in Maryland. Abobor purchased two homes in his own name, and purchased the rest of the homes using the names, and credit, of various friends and family members. Each loan application contained fraudulent information about the borrower’s earnings including their monthly income and their assets and employers, of which Abobor had full knowledge.
Abobor arranged at least seven fraudulent real estate transactions, caused more than $2,000,000 in intended losses to victim financial institutions, took in excess of $20,000 in fraudulent real estate commissions, and collected over $270,000 in extra money from the transactions in the form of third party disbursements for renovations that were never completed.
…
Remember, Perezcious readers, it’s Danielle Staub who is apparently a prostitution whore!
Meanwhile, it seems Teresa Giudice might be a fraud!
Or at least, that’s what officials are trying to prove, but she’s continuing to plead not guilty to the accusations.
Tre and her juicy lil’ man, Joe Giudice, were in court today (above) where they pleaded not guilty to two additional charges of fraud related to a matter where she supposedly falsely claimed to be a realtor in order to obtain a bank loan.
The Real Housewives of New Jersey couple supposedly filed a false application for a $361k mortgage loan as Tre reportedly listed herself as a realtor who made $15k per month, while in reality, she was apparently not working outside the home.
Yes, this was back in 2005, long before she was Real Housewife-ing it, dishing out disses in a cookbook, or fattening her finances thanks to Fabellini.
Now, the legally troubled twosome could be facing 30 years in prison and a hefty $1 million fine if convicted.
And don’t forget about the 39 other charges against them…
…
FRESNO, Calif. - Former Bakersfield realtor David Crisp and his wife Jennifer pleaded guilty to fraud relating to real estate and bank fraud Monday at the Federal Courthouse in Fresno.
David Crisp pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit mail fraud, wire fraud and bank fraud. Jennifer Crisp pleaded guilty to one count of mail fraud, and one count of wire fraud. The couple pleaded guilty to various charges relating to the Crisp & Cole real estate fraud case.
According to the plea agreements, Carl Cole, who pleaded guilty in November, and David Crisp, owned and operated real estate brokerage firm Crisp, Cole & Associates, also known as Crisp & Cole Real Estate (CCRE), and Tower Lending, an affiliated mortgage brokerage.
According to court documents, between January 2004 and September 2007, others at CCRE and Tower Lending carried out a conspiracy to defraud mortgage loan companies and federally insured financial institutions, in part by using straw purchasers to acquire properties at inflated prices with funds borrowed from lenders, often using 100 percent financing, based on false and fraudulent loan applications. The properties were nominally owned in the names of the straw buyers, but were controlled by the “The defendants falsely inflated real estate prices knowing that the foreclosures that followed would do harm to local builders, consumers, and lenders,” said U.S. Attorney Wagner. “The conduct of Crisp, Cole & Associates was emblematic of the recklessness and lawlessness in the mortgage industry in the mid-2000s that caused the financial crisis. Since that crisis hit, this office has charged more than 350 people with crimes related to mortgage fraud schemes, and our work is not yet done.”and held for the benefit of the conspirators and CCRE.
The conspirators frequently resold the properties from one straw buyer to another, each time at an inflated, higher price so that the conspirators and CCRE could extract the purported increased “equity” from the property for their benefit.
…
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2013-12-23 09:40:23
All Plumbers are Liars!!!
“An Oxnard man is charged with elder abuse and working without a valid contractor’s license. 46-year- old Albert Solano was arrested on July 26th by Oxnard Police following an investigation by the Contractors State License Board, the Santa Barbara County District Attorney’s Office and the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office. The investigations revealed that Solano, who worked as a plumber, was using the names of businesses that did not have a valid contractor’s license and fraudulently used the name of a business, AR Construction, which was not his. ”
Google any profession and the word arrest and you’ll find articles like this.
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-23 09:41:57
How are those Atlanta investment properties holding up, Eddie?
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-12-23 09:44:49
Your honeymoon is over Slithers.
Comment by A Realtor
2013-12-23 10:24:14
Ooooh look at me, I can find articles about shady realtors on the internet. If i read about them in the paper, that means that they are all shady! Must be a miserable existence to stereotype so much. Guess what, I can do that too. What is your profession? I guarantee you I will be able to dig up dirt no problem. I doubt you will give an answer-or an honest one at that-keyboard warrior.
it’s little different for you, isn’t it? you claim to be a realtor right in your handle. i presume you want to take advantage of people knowing you’re a realtor? then you should be prepared to accept the baggage that goes with it.
why do you and amy hoakum try to sell homes when the people that buy them could well be hurt by it? how will you feel if a large portion of them ends up on the street? not your concern, eh? karma is instant, realtor. and it’s hurting both you and amy.
you should wait in your offices for buyers to come to you. that would be the honorable way to operate. much better than beating the bushes.
The renters can leave the table, the grownups are having a conversation.
Comment by A Realtor
2013-12-23 11:42:27
“why do you and amy hoakum try to sell homes when the people that buy them could well be hurt by it? how will you feel if a large portion of them ends up on the street? not your concern, eh? karma is instant, realtor. ”
I always advise client to buy less home than what they come in thinking; as do all of the realtors I know that are worth a dang. Just because I sell someone a home does not mean I am in charge of their finances for the rest of their lives. Things happen that make homes unaffordable (ie medical reasons, job losss etc.) My job is to locate good properties and negotiate competitive prices. If you are angry about mortgage rates and bank policies. take that up with the lenders.
I always advise client to buy less home than what they come in thinking;
whatever they are thinking shouldn’t be the criteria. what they can afford, and all the hidden dangers being known, should be the criteria. they should be told that housing is above historical norms. they should be told that it could correct much more than the MSM is telling them. and they should be told the truth about many other things to help them avoid a bad debt.
Just because I sell someone a home does not mean I am in charge of their finances for the rest of their lives.
correct. and this is the attitude that allows many realtors to put their trusting customers in untenable situations.
My job is to locate good properties and negotiate competitive prices.
since you work on commission, your incentive is to get as high a price as possible.
If you are angry about mortgage rates and bank policies. take that up with the lenders.
you’re going to be hurt by these policies too. you just don’t know it yet.
Comment by mathguy
2013-12-23 12:11:11
Realtor: the newest oldest profession.
Comment by rms
2013-12-23 13:01:38
“The renters can leave the table, the grownups are having a conversation.”
Have ever f* a renter? They’re loving people too.
Comment by A Realtor
2013-12-23 13:12:29
I think you misunderstand the role of a realtor in people over-leveraging themselves. Realtors don’t approve mortgages. If someone purchased a home far above their means, would you fault the lender for being too lax, or a realtor who thought they could afford it? I don’t go over people’s financials I can only go by what the bank has them approved for. True, there have been realtors upselling customers, but like I said, that is not every realtor; such as the stigma you are insinuating. Buyers who have their paperwork in order should know what is feasible and what they cannot afford. Buyer beware anyone?
Comment by tj
2013-12-23 14:38:15
If someone purchased a home far above their means, would you fault the lender for being too lax, or a realtor who thought they could afford it?
the first responsibility is always on the buyer. i’m simply talking about the realtor’s hand in it. many people put their trust where they shouldn’t.
True, there have been realtors upselling customers, but like I said, that is not every realtor; such as the stigma you are insinuating.
you guys should police yourselves. you don’t. but it’s ok. less and less people are trusting realtors.
Buyers who have their paperwork in order should know what is feasible and what they cannot afford. Buyer beware anyone?
yes, but the fools think you are looking out for their best interests. you guys reinforce that meme. we both know it isn’t true.
Comment by A Realtor
2013-12-23 15:35:51
Well, there you go. Ultimately the blame rests with the buyer. The bad realtors will be weeded out soon enough. I have a clear conscious; therefore I have nothing to worry about. I do my job to the best of my abilities and I’m not looking for a “quick buck”. I have been in this business for over 25 years and take pride in my work. We provide a service that -to some- is invaluable. Not everyone may agree with this, but that is reality. There is nothing in a mortgage contract that states a realtor is necessary, unlike a salesman at a car dealership, so take it or leave it.
Comment by A Realtor
2013-12-23 15:47:38
“yes, but the fools think you are looking out for their best interests. you guys reinforce that meme. we both know it isn’t true.”
I provide a service - just like the guy that cuts lawns. There is a cost to everything. Commissions are negotiated and written plain as day in the mortgage papers. This isn’t some super sneaky tax brought up when the house is being bought. People know exactly how much we are making when they settle on a price. Regardless of what you may think, I still need to get paid at the end of the day also. I’m running a business, not a charity.
you’re here on the HBB, realtor. what are you looking for?
I have been in this business for over 25 years and take pride in my work.
ted bundy said about the same thing.
We provide a service that -to some- is invaluable.
some must think so at 6%.
Not everyone may agree with this, but that is reality.
debatable.
There is nothing in a mortgage contract that states a realtor is necessary, unlike a salesman at a car dealership, so take it or leave it.
most people just balk at your cut. how about a straight fee per home sold?
Comment by tj
2013-12-23 16:13:57
Commissions are negotiated and written plain as day in the mortgage papers.
then you admit you’re not looking out for the buyer.
Regardless of what you may think, I still need to get paid at the end of the day also.
take a straight fee and make it up in volume.
Comment by Greenshirtwebcamtransient
2013-12-23 18:26:39
Clear conscious.
I’ll assume that is a typo or autocorrect. You and your “profession” have a problem with honesty. You pimp houses and lie to buyers. The truthful are quickly weeded out.
Here is proof: no matter the circumstance you will say it is a good time to buy.
How many people have you advised to wait now that the FHA limits are dropping drastically? How many possible buyers have you even mentioned it to?
Bunch of shills, plain and simple.
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-23 22:40:03
“…the grownups are having a conversation.”
Who wants to listen to a bunch of grownups with IQs below 80 have a conversation?
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-12-23 22:42:05
“I provide a service - just like the guy that cuts lawns.”
On what planet is helping people financially f^c& themselves considered ‘a service’?
My position on what will happen next is that the Federal Reserve and US government will pull back on their massive price supports when a) the market forces them to and/or b) there are more voters being harmed by their policies than helped.
I wish I had enough time to post all the articles out there on lying, fraudulent real estate agents. Hopefully some of the HBB regulars can step up to help out!
SACRAMENTO - Two Stockton residents have been indicted on mortgage and mail fraud charges by the U.S. Attorney’s Office.
Lillian Marquez, 38, and Michael Keatts, 56, are real estate agents who operated Colonial Home and Business Services in Stockton from February 2006 through at least August 2012.
According to court documents, federal prosecutors allege Marquez and Keatts helped provide false information to lenders that claimed their clients were employees of businesses the defendants operated. An investigation determined the clients were not employees of the businesses and their income was much less than claimed to lenders. The clients’ paycheck and tax information was fabricated by Marquez and Keatts, prosecutors charge.
Additionally, the defendants are accused of short-sale fraud, according to the indictment. Marquez and Keatts helped clients in default on their mortgages to arrange short sales on their properties but allegedly then sold properties to straw buyers without the lender’s knowledge.
…
realtoRs are liars because they have a license, which leads people to believe that they have a fiduciary duty to their client when, in fact, no such duty exists. They belong to a professional organization that has repeatedly and knowingly lied through official channels to everyone in the world, and quite loudly.
The only requirement for obtaining this license is taking a few super-easy classes and paying an annual fee. Many realtoRs are actually high school dropouts, but they are professionals because they belong to a professional organization. Like lawyers and doctors. Pros.
realtoRs do not have to carry any insurance and they frankly do very little to be of value. They can meet you at a house and open the lockbox for you. If you want to know any facts about the home, then you will get some of those facts barfed at you in the form of lies, but no more. They are no different than car salesmen, yet they expect to earn extremely high incomes.
realtoRs should charge much, much lower commissions for what they do. I bought a house without a realtoR, and I am better off for it.
In summary, the above is why realtoRs are true liars.
“Have fun spending Christmas in a rental with all the other losers who failed at life.”
Stealtors turn spiteful, show their ignorance and true colors. See it’s all about the money. Buy a big house, keep up with the Joneses, gotta have that granite counter. Everything that is wrong with the country and particularly at Christmas.
Every Christmas I’ve ever had, save 2 were spent in a rental. It ain’t about the house, it’s about the family.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2013-12-23 19:27:55
“Have fun spending Christmas in a rental with all the other losers who failed at life.”
I have so much money from investing rather than owning real estate I can buy at least 15 new Porsche 9/11s, and put a bumper sticker on each that says “Low life Renter!”
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2013-12-23 20:57:46
The only problem of living cheap while amassing a lot of wealth is you are regarded by the snobs as worthless low life.
You know, you walk in blue jeans across a parking lot and some 1.5 ton vehicle cuts you off. Well you don’t flip them off when it’s your own apartment complex.
You drive your ten year old Toyota (runs well!) and get cut off by a Jaguar. You get mad and flip him off then he decides to just put his brakes on and slow you down. He purposely annoys you further. This happened to me in July on the 405 driving south toward Seal Beach exit.Then you think. The a$$hat who cut you off has a heap of problems, most likely financial, and in the meantime I can retire now!
The only problem of living cheap while amassing a lot of wealth is you are regarded by the snobs as worthless low life.
But thats the beauty of it…. oh the irony, no? The home-cheapo’ed new car driving debt-junkies think they’re fooling someone. In away they are… themselves.
I know alot of guys with millions… in the 3-20 million range yet you’d never know it. One of them drives a 2003 windlowless astro van. That’s his daily driver. And guess what; every day is a day of earning big $$$. Two of them I’ve discussed the economy and specifically housing and neither own any depreciating houses. Why? They know they’re a irrecoverable loss.
Who believes in debt? DebtJunkies. They don’t have two dimes to rub together and never will. Throwing good money after bad, month after month, year after year yet they have nothing to show for it.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said he believes the central bank will begin raising its target policy rate in early 2015. Speaking Monday on CNBC, Lacker said his forecast for the trajectory of the fed funds rate is the third-highest among members of the Fed. He expects the rate to hit 2% by the end of 2015, from its current target of near zero. “I put early 2015 for when fed funds rate will lift off but that is something that can change one way or another,” he said. The Fed said last week that it would begin scaling back the pace of its bond-buying program, but sought to distinguish that so-called taper from the tightening process of raising rates. Lacker was not a voting member of the policy committee in 2013 and won’t become one until 2015. Lacker, who said the tapering was a “slam dunk”, added that he saw as a base case that the Fed will shrink its monthly bond buys by an additional $10 billion each meeting, but could pause if economic data warranted.
There has to be wage inflation first. If federal funds rate goes to 2, not long after that the T-bills will yield 2%. 5 year notes will go next to 4%. 30 year mortgages to 6%.
And mortgage payments will go up. No pay invpcreases and mortgage payments go up for new home buyers. Repeat. And the power brokers still are pushing an ownership society. They have to decide to give that up or back off the increased lending rates.
He expects the rate to hit 2% by the end of 2015, from its current target of near zero Just as I suggested yesterday…The ultra wealthy have gorged on the ZIRP for sometime now…They have acquired all the assets that they wanted and placed long term financing on them @ 3% +-
Now that the employment picture is finally improving a bit they are ready to jack-em-up…Can’t have the minions participating in all this free money…Make them pay market rate dammit…!!!
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s cash market squeeze showed little sign of easing on Monday, reinforcing the view the central bank has shifted to tighter monetary policy.
The central bank appears to be trying to force banks to curb risky lending practices in the shadow banking system amid rising concerns about excessive debt. Rapid growth in the world’s second-largest economy over the last four years has also fanned fears about a property market bubble.
The key seven-day bond repurchase rate initially opened lower but then spiked to 8.9 percent on a weighted-average basis by mid-morning on Monday, up from 8.21 percent on Friday.
The central bank announced after market close on Friday that it had injected 300 billion yuan ($49.41 billion) via short-term liquidity operations from December 18 to 20. The seven-day rate reached as high as 10 percent on Friday, the highest level since June.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) also emphasized that excess cash reserves in the banking system — a key measure of liquidity — stood at more than 1.5 trillion yuan, a high level by historical standards. But market players took a different view.
“The PBOC appeared to stress that cash reserves are abundant in comparison to previous years, but the market has expanded sharply in recent years and demand in the interbank market has far exceeded the previous years’ levels,” said a money market trader at a major state-owned commercial bank in Shanghai.
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WHEN America sneezes, the world catches a cold. And when China bans oddball alternative investments, they plummet in price. That is what has happened to Bitcoin, which has lost around a third of its value since last night, falling below $500 earlier today from a high of more than $1,200 earlier this month. (It is now trading at around $580.) The reason for the panic is that the Chinese state has stopped financial firms from dealing with Bitcoin exchanges, which makes it almost impossible for anyone in China to buy or sell Bitcoin for yuan.
The Chinese, it seems, are worried that people may be using Bitcoin as a way to take yuan—not yet fully convertible—out of the country. They may also have concerns about its more nefarious uses enabling gambling or drug dealing. Since the Chinese have been rather enthusiastic buyers of Bitcoin of late, that Bitcoin owners took this as a cue to sell is hardly surprising. On the Reddit Bitcoin forum, the administrators have posted details of a suicide hotline as the threads are inundated with people who put their savings into the new currency.
To be fair, the Chinese cannot really be blamed for the collapse.
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Comment by Combotechie
2013-12-23 07:28:26
Does this mean I shouldn’t have quit my day job?
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-23 07:32:01
They may also have concerns about its more nefarious uses enabling gambling or drug dealing.
Yeah right. We have never used fiat for nefarious reasons.
The 2007-08 Financial Crisis In Review
By Manoj Singh on February 26, 2009
Filed Under: Bear Stearns, Business Bankruptcy, Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis, Hedge Funds, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, New Century Financial
When the Wall Street evangelists started preaching “no bailout for you” before the collapse of British bank Northern Rock, they hardly knew that history would ultimately have the last laugh. With the onset of the global credit crunch and the fall of Northern Rock, August 2007 turned out to be just the starting point for big financial landslides.
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‘at the time of the earlier selection process in 2007, cgi federal was still relatively new to federal contracting. it had grown out of cgi groups’s acquisition in 2004 of ams, which had a recent history of troubled projects, including a philadelphia school computer system that sent paychecks to dead people and a mississippi tax system so dysfunctional that a jury awarded a $474 million verdict against the firm.
ams projects had run into trouble at the federal level and in at least 12 states, according to government audit reports, interviews and news accounts. the purchase of ams was cgi’s entree into the u.s. government market, and ams executives flocked to cgi federal. today, more than 100 former ams employees are senior executives or consultants working for cgi in the washington area.’
did i tell you that i’m getting a promotion and a raise?
my boss knows that i need more to do, and i welcome working on more complex and time-consuming projects, learning to live and breathe the far and dfars, build up some new skill sets, and hopefully bounce to another contractor in 2014-2015 for even more cash.
Congrats on upward movement and new beginnings. One good thing about government contracting is that the employers don’t even pretend to care how long you stayed at your previous position. The contractor itself isn’t particularly loyal or committed, so they don’t screen for that in potential employees. The upside for you or anyone similarly intelligent is, you can job hop yearly, slap a few new acronyms or titles on your resume, and trade up to a new job. It’s a good proposition for you, despite what it says about the contracting sector or the government’s reliance on contractors.
I’m possibly bouncing in the next month or so, after getting my bonus. I have an open offer where I’d just have to pass a conflicts check. Similar work, 20-25% more pay. I like where I am but my new thinking on independence is pushing me, makes me want to leave the comfort zone. I am no longer interested in partnership or being tied to a big firm.
There are many specific reasons, but mostly because the slavish devotion to firm politics (committees), lack of innovation, and the mantra of “growth” that has become a parody of itself. Once I realized I don’t need to put up with that B.S., it opened new ways of thinking, so I went whoring myself to higher bidders, who will pay more and allow me to save more. Even before MMM readership, I was sacking away about 60% of after-tax pay.
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Comment by real journalists
2013-12-23 10:36:10
You should make a pilgrimage to MMM-land next year and climb a 14er.
Comment by Suite Joey Blue Eyes
2013-12-23 14:40:53
I’m not even sure what a 14er is. Must be a northeast bedwetter form of ignorance.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 15:29:05
I am hoping he is meaning a 14,000 foot mountain. I hate to have to put him on the sex offenders’ list.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 15:38:51
Great from Wikipedia, we are safe, of course having lived in Utah and dealing with polygamists I was not sure. I hear that there is colony of them but Durango too:
In mountaineering terminology in the United States, a fourteener is a mountain that exceeds 14,000 feet (4,270 m) above mean sea level. The importance of fourteeners is greatest in Colorado, which has the majority of such peaks in North America. It is also significant in California, which has the second largest group of such peaks in the lower 48 states. Climbing all of Colorado’s fourteeners is a popular pastime among peak baggers; another popular target is climbing all of the fourteeners in the contiguous United States. Various ski mountaineers have completed ski descents of all the Colorado fourteeners, and the first attempts are being made to complete ski descents of all U.S. fourteeners
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 16:00:21
but Durango =by Durango. I once hired some polygamist women that had escaped from their cult. One had objected to be the 15th wife of her uncle when she was fifteen, can’t imagine why.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 16:14:05
be=being, that one is just my mind being faster than my fingers.
Comment by overpaid government contractor
2013-12-23 17:14:51
I’ve been up 50 of them, they are getting too crowded, 13ers are where it’s at if you want more bears than people.
CGI was put onto the CMMS “short list” during the bush years, in 2007. They’ve had a main line “in” with government contracting since then. As goon’s article points out, CGI acquired another contractor prior to being accepted by CMS and the evaluation people with CMS didn’t look closely at the outcomes of their previous contracting.
The fact is, government contracting is often not cost effective. It would often be better to keep things simple, do less, and have federal employees do quite a bit of the work (in this case, administer medicaid and medicare claims) while contracting out relatively short-term things as opposed to long-standing, core functions.
Building an innovative web portal like healthcare.gov is at least an example of something that should conceivably be contracted. The sickness in our procurement system is that the contractor culture pervades even the simplest, most basic functions of running the government.
Do coporations still use the profit to shore up the balance sheet and set aside some for future? I think whatever is made will be spent on bonuses and salaries, and they will be back for more next year.
My employer has $40B of cash and “cash equivalents” on the balance sheet.
Comment by my failure to respect is unacceptable
2013-12-23 12:10:41
My employer has $40B of cash and “cash equivalents” on the balance sheet.
Yeah…but they will not use that money to give a raise or bonus to the employees or to train and retain employees. If there’s a downturn next yer, first thing they will do is fire the employess..not dip in that reserves. The reserves are there for show….you can look but can’t touch…..for the employees’ benefits anyway.
“Since taking office, President Obama has deported more than 1.9 million foreigners, immigration officials announced last week, a record for an American president. The officials said they focused on removing criminals, serious immigration offenders and recent border crossers, with 98 percent of deportees in 2013 in those groups, while sparing workers and their families. Mr. Obama is also pressing for an overhaul of immigration laws with a path to citizenship for those here illegally.
But immigrant leaders (sad panda boo hoo) say the enforcement has a broad impact on their communities, with deportations still seperating bread-winning parents from children and unauthorized immigrants from family members here legally, including American citizens.”
This “separating families” meme is utter bullcrap. The parents can and should take their children with them, no question. The children are citizens of the parents’ home country. No one’s forcing the children to stay here, except maybe the parents, so they’re the ones at fault and being inhumane for dumping their kids in the US.
In trying to be sarcastic, you’ve actually come up with a good idea. Why not take most of the marijuana related non-violent crime and get those people back working and taking care of their families instead of idling in a prison for consuming a natural plant that grows on the planet and not actually causing any harm to society?
grows on the planet and not actually causing any harm to society ?
Cocaine was legal at one time also….Until the morality police got involved and realized what a huge business it could be to criminalize it and criminalize it with Felonies I might add…
But its for the children don’t you know…Think of the kids !!
I think it’s just aweful that Mexico won’t take these Mexican citizens in. They are WORKERS, for crying out loud. Mexico should welcome all Mexicans with open arms. Immigration reform now!
An earlier version of a headline with this article referred inaccurately to the rate of deportations by the Obama administration. While there has been a total of more than 1.9 million deportations under President Obama and there was a recent increase of removal operations in New Orleans, overall deportations decreased by 10 percent in fiscal 2013 from the previous year. There has not been a “surge.”
When border and interior deportations are included, that total fell 10 percent from 2012, from nearly 410,000 to 368,644 this year. That is the lowest figure of President Obama’s five-year tenure.
With apologies to John Gray, it can be seen from the above graph that the two data sets often either go in opposite directions or are different in other ways. Looking at the first 11 months, there are three months where the jumps are similar, namely May, October and November. However even for November, where both went in the same direction, there is a small discrepancy with respect to the ranking of their respective November anomalies. As we know, November on GISS at 0.77 was the warmest November ever. However the HadCRUT4 November at 0.596 was the third warmest November ever.
Quick close down so more coal power plants in the US so China can have some coal to burn in its plants that do not use any scrubbers even when they are built into the plants:
China saw its coal output increase 2.5% year on year to 330 million tons in Nov this year, according to the latest statistics released by the China National Coal Association.
Last month, the country’s major coal enterprises produced a total of 179 million tons of coal, reflecting a year on year increase of 6.1%.
In the first seven months of this year, the country’s coal output edged up 0.35% year on year to 3.42 billion tons.
According to an earlier statistic released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 291.63 million tons of coal in the first eleven months, up 15.1% from a year earlier, China Knowledge reported earlier.
The very rich (0.1%) and the poor are the enemies of democracy. The Founding Fathers understood how Rome lost its democracy and became a dictatorship. When the poor population grew enough due to the importation of slaves, the rich through the use of bread and circuses were able to buy votes and increase their power.
The Founding Fathers put in place limits of federal government spending areas, (which were wiped out by an expansion of commerce clause) and limiting voters to property owners (essentially middle class). Any such limitations including the poll tax were wiped out during the sixties. Now, through Snap and programs such as Obama phones, the rich have brought back bread and circuses. Rich people use their money to win office (or their puppets) and then use the treasury to stay in office and further enrich themselves through legislative actions.
Rome was the example that the Founding Fathers sought to avoid and it is the template for the very rich today. Illegal aliens provide them both the “new slaves” and enlarge the numbers of the poor that can easily be bought off to vote to continue these policies. The middle class is not longer large enough to check the power of the rich.
Where in the constitution does it say that only white male landowners could vote? Look there were practical reasons not to allow slaves to be able to vote and tenant farmers not to vote since they could be controlled. However, free blacks were not uncommon in both the North and South and they owned land. I would have to go state by state to determine their voting rights. However, never forget that the decisive battle of the civil war was fought on the land owned by a free black man.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 13:10:18
You will find that the constitution allowed the states to determine who could vote and there were states that allowed black landowners to vote and even one state that allowed women to vote. It is very unfair to not consider how much the Founding Fathers increased the percentage of people that were making the decisions and focus on the fact that they had to consider the thinking of the time on who would be capable of exercising the right to vote.
From Wikipedia:
Originally, the U.S. Constitution did not define who could vote and was simply built around a concept of rights of “person”, with voting not explicitly included in the rights. When the country was founded, in most states, only non-Negro men with real property-usually of at least 50 acres- (land) or sufficient wealth for taxation were permitted to vote.[citation needed] Women could vote in New Jersey, provided they could meet the property requirement, and in some local jurisdictions in other northern states. Men and women of color could also vote in these jurisdictions, provided they could meet the property requirement. Freed slaves could vote in four states. Unpropertied men and women, including slaves, were largely denied the franchise. At the time of the American Civil War, most white men were allowed to vote, whether or not they owned property. Literacy tests, poll taxes, and even religious tests were used in various places, and most white women, people of color, and Native Americans still could not vote.[2]
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 13:17:14
Additionally, the provision in the constitution that addresses slavery was an attempt to limit the power of slave states and to actually encourage the freeing of slaves not to diminish the worth of any human being. This attack of the founding fathers is largely orchestrated by globalists that want to diminish nationalism.
Comment by tj
2013-12-23 13:22:43
all you said it true.
However, never forget that the decisive battle of the civil war was fought on the land owned by a free black man.
did you know that the first slave owner in the USA was also a black man?
Comment by tj
2013-12-23 13:26:45
it=is
also, technically i should have said “colonial america”.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 13:41:58
Two posts seem to have been lost in cyberspace so I will try again. The Founding Fathers restored democracy or a democratic republic to the fact of the earth for the first time in 1700 years and then get attacked by people because they do not meet the standards two hundred years later. It was a state issue and in some states black males could vote and at least one state property owning women could vote. The constitution did not define who could vote and certainly did not limit any ones right to vote, Wikipedia:
Originally, the U.S. Constitution did not define who could vote and was simply built around a concept of rights of “person”, with voting not explicitly included in the rights. When the country was founded, in most states, only non-Negro men with real property-usually of at least 50 acres- (land) or sufficient wealth for taxation were permitted to vote.[citation needed] Women could vote in New Jersey, provided they could meet the property requirement, and in some local jurisdictions in other northern states. Men and women of color could also vote in these jurisdictions, provided they could meet the property requirement. Freed slaves could vote in four states. Unpropertied men and women, including slaves, were largely denied the franchise. At the time of the American Civil War, most white men were allowed to vote, whether or not they owned property. Literacy tests, poll taxes, and even religious tests were used in various places, and most white women, people of color, and Native Americans still could not vote.[2]
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 13:47:43
“Freed slaves could vote in four states.”
Yes, but remember there were only 13 states. That is a significant number.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 13:58:05
fact of the earth= face of the earth, autocorrect again.
Comment by tj
2013-12-23 14:52:12
Additionally, the provision in the constitution that addresses slavery was an attempt to limit the power of slave states and to actually encourage the freeing of slaves not to diminish the worth of any human being.
yes, i had that very argument with my comrade here a while ago. i kept telling him that frederick douglas, former slave, said the constitution was an anti-slavery document, even though he was hired by people that wanted him to call it a pro slavery document.
The very rich (0.1%) and the poor are the enemies of democracy.
Dan, neither are the enemies. the real enemy is the broken down morality than allows the envious to enact laws to steal. AKA, socialism. socialism through envy. that and the desire to have power over people for any reason.
‘the rich’ that everyone seems to rail against are a moving target. many make and lose fortunes. some of the richest men at one point have died penniless. they only become a menace when they can buy illegitimate government power. soros is a menace. buffett is a hypocrite. gates is a great high IQ businessman and an economic illiterate.
on the other hand, there are good rich men like jim rogers.
it isn’t their wealth that make men evil, it’s the evil that many men do with it.
Dan, neither are the enemies. the real enemy is the broken down morality than allows the envious to enact laws to steal
I did not mean to suggest that all the poor or all the rich were enemies. Just that the history of Rome demonstrates that these two groups can work together to undermine democracy. If you read Tocqueville and I suspect you have, he talked both about how the rich had been sidelined from controlling America and how the poor still posed a threat to democracy, if they found out they could vote themselves other peoples money. People also forget that the Revolutionary war was also a civil war and you would have found most of the wealthy supporting the British. The expansion of the sharing of power accomplished by the founding fathers was remarkable since the ownership of land was quite common in the New World. People like Jefferson also tried to prevent the spreading of slavery to the territories of the US. However, they were reasonably concerned that the power to vote not be given to people that had not been taught history and would not understand the need to limit the power of government. People like George Washington were great and willing to voluntarily limit their power for democracy. He could have been King and he voluntarily limited himself to two terms. Obama certainly would not voluntarily limit himself.
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Comment by tj
2013-12-23 14:44:54
i have no problem with what you wrote here Dan.
i’m just saying that neither the rich nor the poor are evil because of their wealth status.
the only legitimate role of any government should be to protect the lives, rights and property of its citizens. and rights should be natural rights. all this ‘do-gooding’ especially at the federal level needs to end. it all comes to no good.
As my British friend and colleague, Andrew Hunt has pointed out — Fed and American commentators take note — so far in 2013 the Fed’s actual monthly purchase of bonds — the size of QE — has averaged $94 billion, or $9 billion above the advertised pace of $85 billion per month. Yet apparently no one has noticed and the Fed hasn’t advertised the extra QE . If no one noticed the gap, apparently a $9 or $10 billion difference in QE is no big deal.
Yes, I have been reading about that. They will spend whatever it takes to keep interest rates down, the announced taper limits are not rules, they are more like “guidelines”.
Robert J. Samuelson
Opinion Writer A frustrated Fed (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg) - Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, in Washington, D.C., Dec. 18.
By Robert J. Samuelson, Published: December 22
The Fed turns 100 Monday. A century ago — on Dec. 23, 1913 — President Woodrow Wilson signed legislation establishing the Federal Reserve. Broadly speaking, it was charged with preventing financial crises and preserving prosperity. The record is mixed. Despite many successful years (the 1920s, 1940s, 1950s, 1980s and 1990s), the Fed’s performance is marred by three huge blunders: the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Great Inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s and the 2008-09 financial crisis. Had the Fed acted differently in each case, the outcome would have been different and better.
There’s a disheartening consistency to the Fed’s cycles of success and failure. The beliefs and policies of one era aren’t suitable to the conditions and challenges of the next, but the Fed adapts only slowly under the press of events.
Created after the Panic of 1907, the Fed first focused on averting bank runs. At the time, loan demand and interest rates were highly seasonal; they rose in the spring and the fall, reflecting the credit needs of planting and harvesting crops. Any nasty surprise (bad harvests, business failures, stock market losses) risked a run, as depositors feared that strapped banks couldn’t return their money. After all, most of it had been lent out. Unlike today, deposit insurance didn’t exist.
The Fed solved this problem, says Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron. Money became more “elastic.” When credit demand was high, the Fed lent more. Seasonal interest-rate swings subsided. Confidence grew because depositors knew that, in a panic, banks could borrow from the Fed to meet currency demands. In the 1920s, there were no major bank runs.
But what succeeded in the 1920s backfired in the 1930s. Faced with a collapsing economy, “the Federal Reserve did next to nothing to foster recovery,” writes economist Allan Meltzer in his exhaustive history of the Fed. It was passive, because — based on its 1920s experience — weak loan demand signaled that there was little for the Fed to do. Credit seemed easy; loanable funds seemed ample.
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Comment by my failure to respect is unavoidable (ABQ)
2013-12-23 10:11:02
Excerpt from Gold seek today:
“Those who create and issue the money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in their hands the destiny of the people.”
- Reginald McKenna, President of the Midlands Bank of England
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” - Henry Ford
“The powers vested in the Federal Reserve Board seem to me highly dangerous, especially where there is political control of the Board. I should be sorry to hold stock in a bank subject to such domination. The bill as it stands seems to me to open the way to a vast inflation of the currency…. I had hoped to support this bill, but I can not vote for it as it stands, because it seems to me to contain features and to rest upon principles in the highest degree menacing to our prosperity, to stability in business, and to the general welfare of the people of the United States.“ Senator Henry Cabot Lodge, Dec 17, 1913
Glinda :“You’ve always had the power to go back to Kansas.” Frank Baums ‘Wizard of Oz’
By Jack Mullen
The single most important and by far the most powerful blow to post Rome humanity has been the global banking cartel’s attachment of a counterfeit United States Federal agency (The Federal Reserve) to the organic United States Treasury; a parasite, attaching itself to the economic life blood of the American States.
The so-called “Federal Reserve” act, signed on a lonely 23rd day of December 1913, when congressional representatives had either already gone home for Christmas or were getting ready to depart, was the culmination of more than 100 years of effort on the part of banking cartels scheming to engorged themselves on the wealth of America.
The banking coup of 1913 was masterpiece of deceit finalizing a war between literate well educated elites attempting to keep mankind and especially property owners free from enslavement by a central bank, and a coven of exorbitantly wealthy elites, showing no concern for mankind and already possessing enormous property and assets. The latter were intensely focused on harnessing the Union of States with the yoke of a debt based currency; the stolen wealth to fund a grandiose multigenerational obsession to rule the world.
Inventing ‘money’ borrowed into existence steals wealth in two primary ways. First, through interest payments on ‘money’ borrowed. Since no ‘money’ actually exists but is only printed or created as needed, the interest payments are payments for use of something non-existent.
Gold’s collapse is one of the top market stories of 2013. Its inability to rally in the wake of what had previously been positive news shows that the yellow metal has lost its once-crucial role as a “safe haven,” argues Patrick Legland, Paris-based cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale.
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Comment by my failure to respect is unavoidable (ABQ)
2013-12-23 10:04:36
From the article:
Allegations that banks are rigging the gold and silver markets continue to gain credence and Bloomberg have published an article by Rosa Abrantes-Metz entitled ‘How to Keep Banks From Rigging Gold Prices’ (see article including charts below).
Rosa Abrantes-Metz concludes that gold prices may be manipulated and gives evidence to support her assertion. Abrantes-Metz is adjunct associate professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and a director in the antitrust, securities and financial regulation practices of Global Economics Group.
Falling gold prices despite robust physical demand this year, especially in China, have intensified allegations that gold prices are being manipulated lower. This is the contention of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), influential blog Zero Hedge and others who contend that bullion banks and central banks may be intervening and surreptitiously manipulating gold prices lower in order to maintain faith in fiat currencies.
It is an important debate and one that has ramifications not just for the gold and silver market but for markets in general and for free market capitalism.
‘allegations that gold prices are being manipulated lower’
I wish they’d do that with houses.
Anyway, if you are interested in gold or silver, why not use the lower prices to accumulate more?
Comment by my failure to respect is unavoidable (ABQ)
2013-12-23 10:26:19
I agree Ben and I stated that a few days ago that we should look at the manipulation as a gift since middle class folk seldom get a chance to know that something is being deliberatively held down and buy it cheap.
It’s baloney that anything is manipulated. But in the current environment, everything is being manipulated.
That’s the thing about physical metals. It is what it is and once it’s in your possession, they can’t change that. The people who are sticking their neck out are the metals derivatives holders.
Comment by albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 10:53:55
It’s baloney that anything is manipulated. But in the current environment, everything is being manipulated.
Yes, and the housing manipulation holding prices up is just the opposite side of the coin to gold being held down. Without the ability to create fiat currency at will by the Fed the banks would have had to sell their stocks of foreclosed houses for pennies on the dollar to redeploy the funds in something that was generating interest. Due to the Fed, they were handed money that they could keep at the Fed and receive .25% interest risk free or buy government bonds at the prevailing interest rates. In any event, it allowed them to keep the houses off the market until they could manipulate a price rise.
“Fed the banks would have had to sell their stocks of foreclosed houses for pennies on the dollar”
That’s precisely what they’ll yield anyways.
Comment by Mr. Banker
2013-12-23 11:26:24
“In any event, it allowed them to keep the houses off the market until they could manipulate a price rise.”
And this manipulated price rise saved the banker’s collective a$$es because a rise in prices of houses translated into a rise in values of mortgages backed by these very same houses.
Spread the word that you want to save the banks and you will get shouted down. Spread the word that you want to save underwater homebuyers and you will be greeted as a hero.
It’s all in the packaging, in the marketing. A very easy sell to a dumbed-down population.
If only someone, somewhere had warned America about this clusterfark….
By Jacqueline Leo
December 22, 2013 5:30 AM
Yahoo News
Obamacare has delivered another sucker punch to the middle class. This time it’s sticker shock. Now that a few people can get past the tech problems of HealthCare.gov and actually see the real cost of insurance plans available, they are finding that Affordable Care is big hit to the family budget. And when the family budget gets hit in the solar plexus, guess what happens to consumer spending and the economy.
In California, policies for about 900,000 Californians are being canceled because of Obamacare’s mandates and about 2/3rd of these do not qualify for subsidies, according to The Chicago Tribune. The result—these folks will be paying higher premiums.
In Alabama, premiums have doubled for some middle class families like Courtney Long, a stay-at-home mother of four. She told WHNT News. “It’s devastating. I started crying,” said Long. “I mean, we have worked so hard to get out of credit card debt, get ahead on the car loan, transfer our mortgage to a 15 from a 30 year mortgage… and for what?
In Washington State, Obamacare will increase the underlying cost of individually purchased health insurance by 34-80 percent on average, according to Forbes. The list goes on and on and includes Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Georgia and North Carolina. But premiums are just the beginning. The deductibles are outrageous, too. “
An interesting attack on Obamacare coming from the left. All I can say is maybe the members of Congress from the left should have read it before they voted for it. Whether the reasons for the failure of Obamacare are caused by what the insurance companies lobbied for or not, no Republican voted for the bill and the left should have followed the oath of doctors and first done no harm. Obamacare is worse than doing nothing and a total repeal would still be better than leaving it in place.
The premiums are very high considering the deductibles and copays. I can stomach a high deductible. But a high premium, high deductible, and high copay adds up to nothing but a huge WASTE of money. If a person were to pay insurance premiums at today’s prices throughout their entire life, then they will have probably paid enough for a heart surgery and a cancer treatment already.
Obamacare is not and never was about health insurance. It’s a way to redistribute money from evil rich people who working class heroes. The hero making $25K a year loves Obamacare. He pays nothing a month with no deductibles. This of course on top of the $0 he pays in taxes. Obama’s base loves it.
“The hero making $25K a year loves Obamacare. He pays nothing a month with no deductibles”
False. At least in California. A single male, 40, making 25K a year will pay, after federal tax credit assistance, $60 to 70 a month for the cheap (bronze) plan and ~$150 for the silver. The deductible is $4500 for this individual in the Bronze plan and $1500 for the silver. Maximum yearly out of pocket ranges from 4K to 6K. Happy to help.
Housing may not be affordable, but if the stock market continues going up 1/2-1 percent EVERY day, many additional people will be priced into the housing market. I have a friend who is a local realtor and he has, according to him, closed almost a dozen deals in the last two months that were all cash (upper middle class - upper class neighborhoods) due to people liquidating stock and buying real estate, some for personal homes, others for investment properties.
The rate at which the stock market is going up just amazes me…I’m sure if I were to suddenly put my life savings into it, it would finally have its long-overdue correction. But at least I’m not bitter.
“Housing may not be affordable, but if the stock market continues going up 1/2-1 percent EVERY day, many additional people will be priced into the housing market. I have a friend who is a local realtor and he has, according to him, closed almost a dozen deals in the last two months that were all cash (upper middle class - upper class neighborhoods) due to people liquidating stock and buying real estate, some for personal homes, others for investment properties.”
It assumes that the majority of people priced out of the housing market have a substantial stake in the stock market. That is a very dubious assumption. What percentage of houses are bought by people in this upper middle class and what income level is used to define upper middle class?
It assumes that the majority of people priced out of the housing market have a substantial stake in the stock market. That is a very dubious assumption.
Agreed. Most people with portfolios like that already own a house.
And just how many households have that kind of stock market wealth to begin with? Sure, maybe in places like Silly Valley you’ll get an above average share of IPO or buyout winners, but even there those people are the exception and not the rule.
I wouldn’t say “priced out” per se; my landlord back in California was big into rental properties and daytrading. That was in 2006. He lost all his rental properties, and lost a bunch in the stock market in the subsequent collapse. Now…he is back at it on both accounts.
My point is…the economy is in the toilet. The masses are doing very poorly. But there is a sizable proportion of people who do have a job, who have invested in the stock market through 401(k) or even through a brokerage account, and are benefiting tremendously as stock prices have nearly tripled in the last four years. Undeniable fact. These people are definitely spending more, frequenting restaurants, stores, etc, and making huge purchases (cars, boats, houses) with this newfound “wealth.” It reminds me very much of 2004-05 with houses, although it is concentrated in a much smaller group of people.
And yes, I am aware of people that lived rent free for several years after defaulting on their homes, but still had decent jobs and could afford the speculative house purchase, but chose not to once the value cratered, who kept investing in their stock-401(k). Winner winner chicken dinner!
Why not? Seems reasonable enough. If you have a $1M portfolio in the S&P500, it is roughly gaining $5,000-$10,000 PER DAY at the current rate of increase; in the past three years, any minor drop in stocks (1/10 percent), is called a “selloff” by the MSM, and the broader market is up by 10% just since the government shutdown. Many individual companies are up far more than that.
BTW, I am surprised by how much you idolize Suze Orman, of all people. I vividly recall her advising a caller from SF who “didn’t really want to buy a house there in the city because he was concerned that housing may drop, but his partner wanted to”. He had good income and Suze’s advice was “don’t be a scaredy cat…go ahead and buy.” That was 2008. Anyone who looks up to Suze Orman is a fool.
Mom says no more internet or X-Box until you bring all the dirty dishes upstairs from the basement, and you need to put in applications at Subway and Hardees or she’s taking your i-phone away.
So that’s how rent boy saved all the money he doesn’t know what to do with. He rode the coattails at good ol’ mom and pops place. Makes sense now. Hey, I’m not mad. i would love to have free meals and scott free living too!
but if the stock market continues going up 1/2-1 percent EVERY day, many additional people will be priced into the housing market.
first, not that many will be ‘priced into the market’ whatever that means. the total amount of dollars in circulation doesn’t change because the market goes up or down anyway. it just means that different people have those dollars than before.
second, even if it were true, why would they be induced to buy an over priced home or anything else just because they have more money? does a millionaire buy and drink more beer if he gets another million dollars?
I’ve wavered back and forth if she is real. Some of her comments are so over the top “bubble stupid” I think that they MUST be sarcastic, intended to highlight the stupidity of real estate only goes up thinking. Other times she just seems too serious about trivialities a one dimensional troll would be expected to not respond to. Overall, if she is some kind of troll character creation I have to say bravo to the actor playing her. You’ve brought some depth to trolling as an art form.
If on the other hand she IS real… oh boy I almost feel sorry… it’s almost like watching a kitten play with dynamite…
I don’t think so but I guess it is a matter of opinion. I am sure Ben knows whether it is just one of us having fun but he is too professional to out Amy.
Nobody is quite sure but suspicion is that its RAL under his multiple of handles…One obvious indicator is RAL always immediately responds to Amy and visa versa…More than a coincidence..Just ignore her also…
Don’t forget boys and girls, NASA often fails to launch according to schedule so they can correct issues that would have killed the astronauts… For a chuckle, imagine a realtor henpecking Mission Control to launch the space shuttle despite a problem since a realtor always knows best!!
Incredible black ice this morning up here in the Columbia Basin. The only safe roads are the busy main roads. Sidewalks are still slick as greased lightening at lunch time. A thick blanket of freezing fog is the deal for today. Fugg’n sukz!
High 70’s, a little humid, sunny all day long in St. Pete.
I staked out my hit and run location for 1.5 hours with my camera. Saw about 30 cars that fit the description… total waste of time.
I did learn, however, that my ‘hood is way shadier (not palm tree shade) when you stop and people watch. I’m not sure how I feel about that. I’d get a CCW, but it would be pointless since I work in education and would never realistically be able to carry.
In meteorology, an inversion is a deviation from the normal change of an atmospheric property with altitude. It almost always refers to a “temperature inversion”, i.e., an increase in temperature with height, or to the layer (”inversion layer”) within which such an increase occurs. Temperature inversion can notoriously result in freezing rain in cold climates. –Wikipedia
This is what happens when the small fish try to pay their friends in the government a portion of the money they get from the government.
The contractor overbilled the Navy to the measly sum of 20 million. A portion of those proceeds were directed back to Navy officials to help keep the contracts coming in.
Navy Secretary Mabus expects bribery scandal to widen
By Craig Whitlock, Published: December 20
The Washington Post
Prosecutors estimate that the government was cheated out of more than $20 million by the alleged fraud scheme.
So far, two Navy commanders have been arrested and charged with taking bribes from the company in the form of cash, luxury travel and prostitutes. Two captains have been suspended or reassigned by the Navy. And two admirals who work in Navy intelligence have had their access to classified materials suspended while investigators scrutinize their possible involvement.
Wall Street has learned you gotta pay the politicians themselves, not just government workers. Politicians write the laws that keep them and their cronies untouchable.That takes a lot of money.
There are now some additional plans that only cover doctors in certain counties, and they’re cheaper. Also, it used to be that you couldn’t get the details of any plan until you actually applied and had them send it to you in the mail. Now you can actually see everything online. There are out-of-pocket maximums, and provider lists, which didn’t used to be there.
Dude. There is now another company or group or whatever. It has been 50 minutes since I last checked. Also, the website is broken, so I can’t actually apply for coverage.
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (the ZSE) is the best performing stock exchange in the world, the key Zimbabwe Industrials Index up some 595% since the beginning of the year and 12,000% over twelve months. This jump in share prices is far in excess of increases in consumer prices. While the country is crumbling, the Zimbabwean share speculator is keeping up much better than the typical Zimbabwean on the street.
CNBC logic fails to explain the coincidence of a rising ZSE and collapsing GDP because it entirely ignores the monetary side of the economy. At this point Austrian economics makes its contribution to our story. According to Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), the peak-trough-peak pattern that economies demonstrate is not their natural state, but one created by excess growth in money supply and credit. New money is not simply parachuted to everyone equally and at the same time — it is sluiced into the economy at certain initial “entry points.” From these entry points, a number of initial goods are bought by recipients of new money causing a rise in price for these initial goods relative to other goods.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 15:56:50
The bubblenomics actually ran a bit longer than I remembered in Zimbabwe. BTW, another great article on the same site:
I’m looking forward to next summer’s reading of the Eastern Washington State / Central Idaho Recreational Waterpark Attendence Index as further evidence that this recovery has legs.
Thanks, Obama.
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Comment by overpaid government contractor
2013-12-23 16:17:55
And Slithers knows what he’s talking about, it’s frequently cited in the Fed’s Beige Book.
Comment by overpaid government contractor
2013-12-23 16:38:38
And I waited 5 minutes longer than normal at the Chik-Fil-A drive-thru today. This recovery is ON FIRE.
Thanks, Obama.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 16:48:38
Joe and Rio are not going to be happy that you eat there.
Obamacare reduced Nancy’s role in 2010 and could very well reduce Harry’s role in 2014, thanks Obamacare.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by overpaid government contractor
2013-12-23 16:25:48
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 16:38:31
It is too early in the day to be smoking pot, Goon. Don’t think I am not on to you about Joe either. You attend to hike in grizzly country. First rule in Ggizzly country, you don’t need to be faster than the bear, just the person you are hiking with. I guess it is o.k. because Greek food is probably healthy for Bears too.
Comment by overpaid government contractor
2013-12-23 16:41:45
I tried to find some last minute gifts at Wal-Mart today, but they were stripped clean of all of their Duck Dynasty merchandise. If consumers didn’t have jobs and money, how would they buy all of it?
Thanks, Obama.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-23 16:49:55
Attend for intend, maybe it is too early for me to be smoking pot.
Comment by In Colorado
2013-12-23 18:41:38
Attend for intend, maybe it is too early for me to be smoking pot.
It’s called Rocky Mountain High for a reason!
Comment by overpaid government contractor
2013-12-23 19:50:09
you’re all a bunch of racis. antyhing less than slobbering devotion to dear leader is rasism. obama owns you. all your base is belong to obama
ft dot com
December 18, 2013 11:59 pm
Bernanke puts Fed on autopilot as he leaves the cockpit
By Robin Harding in Washington
When Ben Bernanke turned and walked out of his final press conference at the US Federal Reserve he left behind some unexpectedly detailed guidance that will constrain his successor, Janet Yellen, for most of her first year in office.
Mr Bernanke will chair one more meeting before Ms Yellen takes over on February 1, but December’s decision to taper asset purchases from $85bn to $75bn a month in effect marked the moment of handover. Mr Bernanke said that Ms Yellen “fully supports what we did today”.
The Fed split the difference between a December and a January taper by announcing the change now, but not putting it into effect until the start of next year. That avoids any end-of-year hit to market liquidity.
A bigger surprise was the level of detailed forward guidance that Mr Bernanke provided – much more comprehensive than it appeared at first glance – which lays out a course for Fed policy well into 2014.
“We’re trying here to get a high level of accommodation,” Mr Bernanke said. “The action today is intended to keep the level of accommodation more or less the same overall and enough to push the economy forward.”
…
Target Corp. isn’t the only retailer (TGT -0.34%) preoccupied with damage control. Retailers, in the final countdown to Christmas, are up against disappointing sales in their biggest season of the year.
One more sign sales missed the mark: retailers’ in-store sales for the week ended Sunday, Dec. 22, fell 3.1% from a year earlier while traffic plunged 21%, according to traffic tracker ShopperTrak. The decline is worth noting because Friday, Saturday and Sunday, along with Black Friday, were expected to be among the top four shopping days of the season.
The performance compared with ShopperTrak’s original forecast of sales increasing 2.4% and traffic declining 10% in November and December combined.
Sales in November and through Dec. 15 also have missed the mark, up 2% even though November sales itself was a bright spot, up 3.4%.
…
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
north korea enters the danger zone.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29295430
====
prospects for 2014
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=29295382
Yes, well, NoKo is China’s proxy and China’s problem to handle.
And South Korea’s problem. They are rich enough to handle this situation.
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2013-12-22 20:13:40
Also thanks to Oxide for a few days of honesty back a month ago for that NYT Buy versus rent calculator.
So all of the other days, I’ve been lying.
I see.
Renting is always better. Always.
And Bill in Los Angeles = WIN.
You win by renting while the credit bubble collapses.
You win by selling your biggest stock gains in a 5 year bull market while pundits are encouraging the peanut gallery now is the time to buy stocks.
You win by accumulating T-bills, cash, and precious metals while no one else wants to buy them.
You win by having 0 debt at the end of every month.
0 debt and enlarging accounts of all kinds.
What Bill actually said;
There is nothing “upscale” about renting. The only thing upscale about that is your landlord’s bank account.
Home Buyers Are Scarce, So Renters Take Their Place
Kendrick Brinson for The New York Times
Ramika Archibald owns a home near Atlanta. She is the president of the homeowners’ association in her subdivision.
By SHAILA DEWAN
Published: December 4, 2013
ATLANTA — Homeownership was out of reach for Tishri Hyman, a single mother of two with a good job but less than stellar credit. But three years ago, she found the next best thing: a brand new house, complete with a fireplace, that she could rent.
The New York Times
“It was just absolutely magnificent to be able to live in a new home,” she said. “It gave me a sense of independence. It provided something for me that was probably missing.”
Ms. Hyman and her daughters moved into what had been a model home in one of the many boom-time subdivisions around Atlanta that were originally intended for first-time buyers. But now thousands of similar single-family homes are being built for tenants, rather than owners.
Around Atlanta, new five-bedroom, three-bath homes that once might have sold for a little less than $200,000 are now on offer for monthly rents of $1,300 — granite countertops and walk-in pantries included.
Building homes to lease, rather than sell, has begun to make sense to home builders and investors because the pool of qualified first-time home buyers has shrunk even as the price of buying existing homes has risen enough to make new construction worthwhile again.
…
This troll is beyond played out, please stop.
From Bill in LA:
” It shows renting is always better than buying if you want an upscale house.”
I just went back and played with the calculator again, using a $600K house and a rent estimate of $2069/month vs. a 4% mortgage with 10% down. It’s true that renting is better than buying if the house never increases in value, or if rent doesn’t increase above 3% a year. But if you live in an area where house prices increase and rent increases even more, then buying is better.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=1&
Where does does a $600K house rent for $2000?
“Where does does a $600K house rent for $2000?”
Here (Davis, Ca)
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/313-University-Ave-Davis-CA-95616/16542912_zpid/
“Where does does a $600K house rent for $2000?”
San Luis Obispo County, California
-median home sales price: $415,000
-median household income: $58,630
This area also has badly skewed rent v ownership ratios. Realize that the median home is a 50s 3/1 w/950-sqft. A real 3/2 ranch costs $600K plus! Try a search on zip: 93401
There isn’t a house on the planet worth $600k.
There isn’t a house on the planet worth $600k.
+1 Not a 3/2 ranch anyway.
San Luis Obispo County, California
Like most coastal cities up and down the coast of California, particularly the upscale areas, it is far cheaper to rent than to own. Rent an ocean view and the legendary weather of the California coast for a fraction of what the FBs are paying.
A former colleague of mine lives in Gilbert. He’s governed by his wife’s taste in homes but personally he told me no house is worth over $200,000. Their’s must be somewhere north of $500,000.
When is it ever worth buying a house around $500,000? 1) When it’s no more than 1/6 of your net worth - your net worth must be at least $3,000,000, 2) It’s not in a subsidized neighborhood, 3) all your neighbors own their houses (have no mortgage payment). But the $2,500,000 you have left over should be mostly in stock index funds and you should have a big chunk of T-bills and Treasury Notes.
So all of the other days, I’ve been lying.
It’s not a lie if you really believe it.
Carlyle said “a lie cannot live.” It shows that he did not know how to tell them.
If you wish, you can exchange the word “clarity” for “honesty.” I haven’t seen you oppose the nanny state yet.
Mz Crateron still looks to the state with goo goo eyes thinking they’re going to backstop her. That’s what empty pockets always do.
OK, I’ll accept that.
I haven’t seen you oppose the nanny state yet.
She’s the nanny.
Do these calculators take into account tax deductions for mortgage and property tax? It may not matter for the working class heroes making $25K. For evil rich people making $250K, it does.
For 92% of debtdonkeys errr buyers I mean, they don’t pay enough taxes or earn enough to offset the standard deduction.
It’s probably more like 60%, not 92%.
But for upscale renters, 100% of them pay enough taxes. $25K a year working class heroes aren’t renting $3K a month condos.
88-92%.
Oh lord, slith, I wish you were banned. We have been over this ad infinitum. This is what characterizes you as a troll. You make the same “points” over and over again, no matter how many times people provide you with concrete numbers and trustworthy links to counter your DUMB posts.
If people who repeated themselves a lot were a lot were banned, there would be very few participants remaining here.
who repeated themselves a lot were a lot were banned, there would be very few participants remaining here ??
Nothing wrong with repeating your position to a post if it is supported by fact, or what are suggested to be facts or even a personal opinion that is postured like an adult…
Its the childish post repeated over & over that are annoying and contribute nothing to the blog…The personal attacks to attempt to engage response is also school yard banter..
“Get what you can get for your rapidly depreciating house today because it’s going to be much less tomorrow for decades to come”
You better believe it Mister.
LOL! So now asking a question = repeating myself. Nice. This is from the place where “BUYING A HOUSE IS FINANCIAL SUICIDE” is said about 1000 times a week.
OK here it goes again…someone making $25K isn’t renting high end stuff. The people that do earn a lot of money, ergo they pay a lot of taxes, ergo, they lose out on a huge amount of tax deduction by renting.
Ok. Here it goes again.
88-92% of all borrowers don’t use the mortgage interest tax deduction.
Anything else Tard?
Give EddieTard a break. He’s still licking his wounds over his massive losses on Atlanta investment properties.
are their any assets left that aren’t being manipulated?
Yes there are.
http://jackmalcolm.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Beanie-babies.jpg
Mobile homes…except for the small price bump they get from all other housing being overpriced. But it’s small…they are the least sexy investment in the world I think. But mine has quite the rate of return.
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®
peyton reclaimed the td record yesterday and threw $10k of equity my way.
and after we win the souper bowl he’ll throw me another $50k of equity.
It was caused by global warming, everything is. I am going to seek a $2 million dollar grant to “prove” that global warming will increase the incidence of jock itch.
Payton should throw some of that godawful pizza he hawks in TV to his fans of the redneck state.
blech…..
I dunno what that $hit is but it’s not pizza.
Totally. It’s not bad within 20 miles of an ocean, therefore it’s garbage.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/16/peyton-manning-pizza_n_4109979.html
From a Huffpost link that will soon post:
Several of the shops used to sell around $3,000 to $4,000 of pizza on any given Broncos game day, but that has jumped to $5,000 to $6,000 a day since Manning took over. That’s the equivalent of selling roughly 60 pizzas an hour.
Other nearby Papa John’s that are not owned by Manning are not feeling the “Peyton Factor,” as the employees call it, with no reports of improvement of pizza sales.
Each of Manning’s Papa John’s offers discounts on the Mondays after a Broncos win and, so far, the Broncos are undefeated (also thanks to Peyton Manning).
Manning purchased the 21 Papa John’s franchises around the state last October and his timing couldn’t have been better — just two weeks later Colorado voters passed Amendment 64 which legalized marijuana for recreational use.
Another thing that goes hand in hand is marijuana and the munchies, and pizza is classic stoner cuisine.
“Each of Manning’s Papa John’s offers discounts on the Mondays after a Broncos win and, so far, the Broncos are undefeated (also thanks to Peyton Manning).”
The Broncos are undefeated? That’s news to the 3 teams that have defeated them this season.
The article was from October.
http://www.google.com/m/search?q=peyton+greatest+ever
Payton should throw some of that godawful pizza he hawks in TV to his fans of the redneck state.
Real Coloradans get their pizza at BeauJo’s:
http://www.beaujos.com/
“Real Coloradans” don’t drive all the way to Idaho Springs for a pizza, they get it at the pizzeria closest to the MMJ dispensary.
“Collapsing housing demand is an interesting phenomenon. Clearly demographics is driving it and is exacerbated by massively inflated prices as a result of all the fraud going on.
You can put a $50k price tag on your 15 year old Honda Civic but there are no buyers.”
Collapsing demand and skyrocket supply…. it doesn’t get better than that.
After a lifetime of renting, you’ll be broke and living in that 15 year old Honda Civic.
After financing a depreciating house for a lifetime, you won’t be able to afford a 15 year old Honda Civic.
“Do not trust an economy founded entirely on credit and debt. You’re going to get burned if you do.”
Exactly. Hold onto your cash and stay out of debt.
No, hold onto your debt and stay out of cash.
“Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, always. Your losses are magnified tremendously if you finance it.”
BINGO
“Remember what I told you? Debt is bondage”~Suze Orman, November 09, 2013
Looking beyond his nutty religious garbage (he assumes everyone of his listeners goes to church or a synagogue) Dave Ramsey has some valuable lines “Debt is dumb. Live like no one else so you can live like no one else” however Mr. Ramsey does not realize a paid off crapshack is a crapshack. He is blind by Real Estate. I will only focus on the two phrases I like.
ALL debt is dumb. I enjoy being a creditor. I lend money to the government (federal and Arizona) and I provide capital for companies to grow (stocks).
Not knocking your approach, but the system is rigged as much as possible to provide massive incentives for households to mire themselves in debt and to squeeze the return on savings for everyone except for too-big-to-fail banks. The latter are in the cat bird seat, as they can borrow short at near zero percent and lend long to Uncle Sam at nearly four percent. I haven’t checked this carefully, but I believe we are currently near the widest T-bond yield curve spread from 3 mos to 30 years on record.
“When is housing massively overpriced? It’s quite simple. When the price of the house is in excess of the cost to build (lot, materials, labor and profit), less depreciation for a used house.”
Exactly. No need to confuse it. Our cost to build a SFR is right around $55/sq ft, with profit.
“The Main Problem Is The Price”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8091
ALWAYS.
“The price” is massively inflated 250%+ over long term trend irrespective of location.
“The price” represents crushing losses from which you’ll never recover in your lifetime.
The Pimps will start throwing out the old “things are going to pick up in the Spring” pitch any second now. Glossing over the cratering that is currently occurring as a simple pause or slowdown.
Once a bubble psychology market starts to drop, look out below. This is happening now. You will only be able to read about it in 6 months when the main stream catches up. Anyone who buys now is an utter fool.
To quote Goofy …. Yaaaah-hoooooeeeeey!
“in the Spring”
This recovery won’t wait until Spring. Saturday, February 8th (weekend after the Souper Bowl) is when the bidding wars and love letters to sellers promising to feed the squirrels will resume.
Mark your calendar. I learned this from a Realtor who knows.
Don’t believe they hype. This is a good time to purchase a home. Any realtor worth their salt can assist you in finding and also negotiating a great price. There are a lot of haters on here that will dispute that, but there are still good realtors out there that go the exta mile. If you are even considering a home purchase in the next few months, now is the time to get the ball rolling. Contact your local realtor for the next steps. We are here to help.
“Don’t believe the hype.”
1. There has never been a better time to buy.
2. Real estate always goes up.
3. All real estate is local.
4. Buy now or get priced out forever.
5. Renting is just throwing away money.
6. Suzanne researched it.
7. You only live once!
Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
Living rent-free in a foreclosure home will never feel like renting a home and staying current on your payments.
Rent for thirty years and be left with nothing but an empty bank account.
Buy a home, build equity with every mortgage payment, deduct the interest from your taxes, and with normal annual appreciation of home prices by 10% (and even more in some markets), after thirty years own a paid off home worth ten times the original purchase price.
If you are too dumb to save, you can blow all the money you save by renting, not owning.
Or if you are over-the-top dumb, you can think you are saving by buying a house, only to see it all go down the drain through depreciation or, worse yet, foreclosure.
Too dumb to save? More like renters are too dumb to buy. Keep writing that rent check every month.
“Keep writing that rent check every month.”
We’re happy to help our landlords defray a fraction of their real estate investing losses for the pleasure of living in the home the bank owns.
Ms. Hoax:
I was wondering if you could answer a question for me. What if I can’t afford to buy something? Should I buy it anyway?
PS
I wish I were as smart as you.
-UFWWYLM
What if I can’t afford to buy something? Should I buy it anyway?
You have heard of motgages, right?
“Contact you local realtor for the next steps. We are here to help.”
I’ll say. You bring me marks and, working together, we shake them down.
You work, I reap.
“Contact you local realtor for the next steps. We are here to help.”
The government and Realtors are here to help.
Thanks Pimp, but I’ll pass until the massive drop in FHA loan limits take effect after January 2014.
While you are here though, feel free to confess your sins from the last bubble popping. Glad to offer some approbation over all the people whose lives you ruined pushing your fraud through 09.
The haters have come out in full force today. That’s ok. We provide a service just as many other industries do. If you don’t see a need to use a realtor, nobody is forcing you to. There are plenty of people that do need our services though.
“There are plenty of people that do need our services though.”
Not really considering sales(demand) is at levels not seen since 1997.
Celebrating Christmas in a rental will never feel like a real Christmas.
Amy did you help blackrock play the Vegas bounce? I am sure they are looking for the exit right now commissions are coming your way:
http://www.myfoxny.com/story/24280415/the-next-detroit-atlantic-city-and-las-vegas-facing-catastrophic-collapse
“The
hatersliars have come out in full force…”Fixed it.
Who has lied? If you got a crappy deal from a car dealership, do you blame the the salesman? Do your research… Realtors can point you in a good direction and offer negitiaions with no obligation to purchase anything. In the end it is up to the buyer. Sorry I don’t buy that overused “realtors are liars line”. Oh wait, realtors forced people to buy homes that were out of their price range. The gun to their head was what sealed the deal. hahaha
“Who has lied?”
Real estate agent, former cop charged in bank fraud scheme
Chicago man sought to stem losses from theater deal
November 24, 2013|By Jason Meisner, Chicago Tribune reporter
A Northwest Side real estate agent and former banker has been arrested on fraud charges in an alleged scheme to hoodwink his own bank into illegally lending $650,000 to a Chicago police lieutenant for the purchase of an apartment building, then keeping a large chunk of the cash for himself.
…
Local Realtor sentenced in mortgage fraud
Posted: Thursday, November 28, 2013 1:00 pm
By JOE AIELLO jaiello@bladenews.com
U.S. District Judge Peter J. Messitte sentenced Michael Abobor, 38, of Glenn Dale, to 51 months in prison, followed by five years of supervised release, for wire fraud in connection with a mortgage fraud scheme involving intended losses of at least $2 million.
Messitte also entered an order that Abobor forfeit $2,026,205 and pay restitution of $1,832,650.
According to his plea agreement, in the spring and summer of 2007, Abobor, a licensed Realtor, submitted fraudulent loan applications for the purchase of homes in Maryland. Abobor purchased two homes in his own name, and purchased the rest of the homes using the names, and credit, of various friends and family members. Each loan application contained fraudulent information about the borrower’s earnings including their monthly income and their assets and employers, of which Abobor had full knowledge.
Abobor arranged at least seven fraudulent real estate transactions, caused more than $2,000,000 in intended losses to victim financial institutions, took in excess of $20,000 in fraudulent real estate commissions, and collected over $270,000 in extra money from the transactions in the form of third party disbursements for renovations that were never completed.
…
RHONJ’s Teresa Giudice Pleads Not Guilty To Claiming To Be A Prostitution Whore, Er, Realtor!
11/20/2013 12:51 PM ET
Remember, Perezcious readers, it’s Danielle Staub who is apparently a prostitution whore!
Meanwhile, it seems Teresa Giudice might be a fraud!
Or at least, that’s what officials are trying to prove, but she’s continuing to plead not guilty to the accusations.
Tre and her juicy lil’ man, Joe Giudice, were in court today (above) where they pleaded not guilty to two additional charges of fraud related to a matter where she supposedly falsely claimed to be a realtor in order to obtain a bank loan.
The Real Housewives of New Jersey couple supposedly filed a false application for a $361k mortgage loan as Tre reportedly listed herself as a realtor who made $15k per month, while in reality, she was apparently not working outside the home.
Yes, this was back in 2005, long before she was Real Housewife-ing it, dishing out disses in a cookbook, or fattening her finances thanks to Fabellini.
Now, the legally troubled twosome could be facing 30 years in prison and a hefty $1 million fine if convicted.
And don’t forget about the 39 other charges against them…
…
David Crisp, wife Jennifer entered guilty plea to fraud, conspiracy charges
Posted: 12/16/2013
Last Updated: 7 days ago
FRESNO, Calif. - Former Bakersfield realtor David Crisp and his wife Jennifer pleaded guilty to fraud relating to real estate and bank fraud Monday at the Federal Courthouse in Fresno.
David Crisp pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit mail fraud, wire fraud and bank fraud. Jennifer Crisp pleaded guilty to one count of mail fraud, and one count of wire fraud. The couple pleaded guilty to various charges relating to the Crisp & Cole real estate fraud case.
According to the plea agreements, Carl Cole, who pleaded guilty in November, and David Crisp, owned and operated real estate brokerage firm Crisp, Cole & Associates, also known as Crisp & Cole Real Estate (CCRE), and Tower Lending, an affiliated mortgage brokerage.
According to court documents, between January 2004 and September 2007, others at CCRE and Tower Lending carried out a conspiracy to defraud mortgage loan companies and federally insured financial institutions, in part by using straw purchasers to acquire properties at inflated prices with funds borrowed from lenders, often using 100 percent financing, based on false and fraudulent loan applications. The properties were nominally owned in the names of the straw buyers, but were controlled by the “The defendants falsely inflated real estate prices knowing that the foreclosures that followed would do harm to local builders, consumers, and lenders,” said U.S. Attorney Wagner. “The conduct of Crisp, Cole & Associates was emblematic of the recklessness and lawlessness in the mortgage industry in the mid-2000s that caused the financial crisis. Since that crisis hit, this office has charged more than 350 people with crimes related to mortgage fraud schemes, and our work is not yet done.”and held for the benefit of the conspirators and CCRE.
The conspirators frequently resold the properties from one straw buyer to another, each time at an inflated, higher price so that the conspirators and CCRE could extract the purported increased “equity” from the property for their benefit.
…
All Plumbers are Liars!!!
“An Oxnard man is charged with elder abuse and working without a valid contractor’s license. 46-year- old Albert Solano was arrested on July 26th by Oxnard Police following an investigation by the Contractors State License Board, the Santa Barbara County District Attorney’s Office and the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office. The investigations revealed that Solano, who worked as a plumber, was using the names of businesses that did not have a valid contractor’s license and fraudulently used the name of a business, AR Construction, which was not his. ”
Google any profession and the word arrest and you’ll find articles like this.
How are those Atlanta investment properties holding up, Eddie?
Your honeymoon is over Slithers.
Ooooh look at me, I can find articles about shady realtors on the internet. If i read about them in the paper, that means that they are all shady! Must be a miserable existence to stereotype so much. Guess what, I can do that too. What is your profession? I guarantee you I will be able to dig up dirt no problem. I doubt you will give an answer-or an honest one at that-keyboard warrior.
^^^^
BWHHAHAHAHAHAHAH
“Ooooh look at me, I can find articles about shady realtors on the internet.”
It took only a few minutes to dig up more articles about Realtor® fraud than I have time to post.
I love how you ignored the second part of my post. That’s what I thought keyboard jockey. Sit down.
Sit yourself down toughguy.
realtors are liars
Nobody was speaking to you, rent boy.
bhwahahahaha!
realtors are liars
What is your profession?
it’s little different for you, isn’t it? you claim to be a realtor right in your handle. i presume you want to take advantage of people knowing you’re a realtor? then you should be prepared to accept the baggage that goes with it.
why do you and amy hoakum try to sell homes when the people that buy them could well be hurt by it? how will you feel if a large portion of them ends up on the street? not your concern, eh? karma is instant, realtor. and it’s hurting both you and amy.
you should wait in your offices for buyers to come to you. that would be the honorable way to operate. much better than beating the bushes.
The renters can leave the table, the grownups are having a conversation.
“why do you and amy hoakum try to sell homes when the people that buy them could well be hurt by it? how will you feel if a large portion of them ends up on the street? not your concern, eh? karma is instant, realtor. ”
I always advise client to buy less home than what they come in thinking; as do all of the realtors I know that are worth a dang. Just because I sell someone a home does not mean I am in charge of their finances for the rest of their lives. Things happen that make homes unaffordable (ie medical reasons, job losss etc.) My job is to locate good properties and negotiate competitive prices. If you are angry about mortgage rates and bank policies. take that up with the lenders.
yet realtors are still liars.
I always advise client to buy less home than what they come in thinking;
whatever they are thinking shouldn’t be the criteria. what they can afford, and all the hidden dangers being known, should be the criteria. they should be told that housing is above historical norms. they should be told that it could correct much more than the MSM is telling them. and they should be told the truth about many other things to help them avoid a bad debt.
Just because I sell someone a home does not mean I am in charge of their finances for the rest of their lives.
correct. and this is the attitude that allows many realtors to put their trusting customers in untenable situations.
My job is to locate good properties and negotiate competitive prices.
since you work on commission, your incentive is to get as high a price as possible.
If you are angry about mortgage rates and bank policies. take that up with the lenders.
you’re going to be hurt by these policies too. you just don’t know it yet.
Realtor: the newest oldest profession.
“The renters can leave the table, the grownups are having a conversation.”
Have ever f* a renter? They’re loving people too.
I think you misunderstand the role of a realtor in people over-leveraging themselves. Realtors don’t approve mortgages. If someone purchased a home far above their means, would you fault the lender for being too lax, or a realtor who thought they could afford it? I don’t go over people’s financials I can only go by what the bank has them approved for. True, there have been realtors upselling customers, but like I said, that is not every realtor; such as the stigma you are insinuating. Buyers who have their paperwork in order should know what is feasible and what they cannot afford. Buyer beware anyone?
If someone purchased a home far above their means, would you fault the lender for being too lax, or a realtor who thought they could afford it?
the first responsibility is always on the buyer. i’m simply talking about the realtor’s hand in it. many people put their trust where they shouldn’t.
True, there have been realtors upselling customers, but like I said, that is not every realtor; such as the stigma you are insinuating.
you guys should police yourselves. you don’t. but it’s ok. less and less people are trusting realtors.
Buyers who have their paperwork in order should know what is feasible and what they cannot afford. Buyer beware anyone?
yes, but the fools think you are looking out for their best interests. you guys reinforce that meme. we both know it isn’t true.
Well, there you go. Ultimately the blame rests with the buyer. The bad realtors will be weeded out soon enough. I have a clear conscious; therefore I have nothing to worry about. I do my job to the best of my abilities and I’m not looking for a “quick buck”. I have been in this business for over 25 years and take pride in my work. We provide a service that -to some- is invaluable. Not everyone may agree with this, but that is reality. There is nothing in a mortgage contract that states a realtor is necessary, unlike a salesman at a car dealership, so take it or leave it.
“yes, but the fools think you are looking out for their best interests. you guys reinforce that meme. we both know it isn’t true.”
I provide a service - just like the guy that cuts lawns. There is a cost to everything. Commissions are negotiated and written plain as day in the mortgage papers. This isn’t some super sneaky tax brought up when the house is being bought. People know exactly how much we are making when they settle on a price. Regardless of what you may think, I still need to get paid at the end of the day also. I’m running a business, not a charity.
realtors are liars..
I have a clear conscious;
so does every psychopath.
therefore I have nothing to worry about.
don’t be too sure.
I do my job to the best of my abilities
your abilities might be sub par.
I’m not looking for a “quick buck”.
you’re here on the HBB, realtor. what are you looking for?
I have been in this business for over 25 years and take pride in my work.
ted bundy said about the same thing.
We provide a service that -to some- is invaluable.
some must think so at 6%.
Not everyone may agree with this, but that is reality.
debatable.
There is nothing in a mortgage contract that states a realtor is necessary, unlike a salesman at a car dealership, so take it or leave it.
most people just balk at your cut. how about a straight fee per home sold?
Commissions are negotiated and written plain as day in the mortgage papers.
then you admit you’re not looking out for the buyer.
Regardless of what you may think, I still need to get paid at the end of the day also.
take a straight fee and make it up in volume.
Clear conscious.
I’ll assume that is a typo or autocorrect. You and your “profession” have a problem with honesty. You pimp houses and lie to buyers. The truthful are quickly weeded out.
Here is proof: no matter the circumstance you will say it is a good time to buy.
How many people have you advised to wait now that the FHA limits are dropping drastically? How many possible buyers have you even mentioned it to?
Bunch of shills, plain and simple.
“…the grownups are having a conversation.”
Who wants to listen to a bunch of grownups with IQs below 80 have a conversation?
“I provide a service - just like the guy that cuts lawns.”
On what planet is helping people financially f^c& themselves considered ‘a service’?
Greenshirtwebcamtransient: Thanks Pimp, but I’ll pass until the massive drop in FHA loan limits take effect after January 2014.
I have a suspicion if the FIRE sector howls loudly enough, the FHA might back off that action.
Just now, Ed DeMarco had slated to raise Fannie and Freddie guarantee fees in March 2014. This raised an outcry from the FIRE sector. Mel Watt just now promised to delay any g-fee increases.
My position on what will happen next is that the Federal Reserve and US government will pull back on their massive price supports when a) the market forces them to and/or b) there are more voters being harmed by their policies than helped.
Neither the Fed or politicians will voluntarily stop firehosing money to Wall Street because of the de facto laundered kickbacks and cronies.
Q: how do you know a realtard is lying?
A: you see his lips move.
The market is booming;
but where are the buyers?
inventory is looming,
Realtors are liars.
Have fun spending Christmas in a rental with all the other losers who failed at life.
realtors are liars
I wish I had enough time to post all the articles out there on lying, fraudulent real estate agents. Hopefully some of the HBB regulars can step up to help out!
Stockton real estate agents charged with fraud
3:08 PM, Dec 4, 2013
C. Johnson
SACRAMENTO - Two Stockton residents have been indicted on mortgage and mail fraud charges by the U.S. Attorney’s Office.
Lillian Marquez, 38, and Michael Keatts, 56, are real estate agents who operated Colonial Home and Business Services in Stockton from February 2006 through at least August 2012.
According to court documents, federal prosecutors allege Marquez and Keatts helped provide false information to lenders that claimed their clients were employees of businesses the defendants operated. An investigation determined the clients were not employees of the businesses and their income was much less than claimed to lenders. The clients’ paycheck and tax information was fabricated by Marquez and Keatts, prosecutors charge.
Additionally, the defendants are accused of short-sale fraud, according to the indictment. Marquez and Keatts helped clients in default on their mortgages to arrange short sales on their properties but allegedly then sold properties to straw buyers without the lender’s knowledge.
…
“New Jersey Realtors Caught on Camera Having Sex in a Client’s Home”
http://gawker.com/new-jersey-realtors-caught-on-camera-having-sex-in-a-cl-1488323799
Why realtoRs Are Liars
- by your uncle
realtoRs are liars because they have a license, which leads people to believe that they have a fiduciary duty to their client when, in fact, no such duty exists. They belong to a professional organization that has repeatedly and knowingly lied through official channels to everyone in the world, and quite loudly.
The only requirement for obtaining this license is taking a few super-easy classes and paying an annual fee. Many realtoRs are actually high school dropouts, but they are professionals because they belong to a professional organization. Like lawyers and doctors. Pros.
realtoRs do not have to carry any insurance and they frankly do very little to be of value. They can meet you at a house and open the lockbox for you. If you want to know any facts about the home, then you will get some of those facts barfed at you in the form of lies, but no more. They are no different than car salesmen, yet they expect to earn extremely high incomes.
realtoRs should charge much, much lower commissions for what they do. I bought a house without a realtoR, and I am better off for it.
In summary, the above is why realtoRs are true liars.
“Have fun spending Christmas in a rental with all the other losers who failed at life.”
Stealtors turn spiteful, show their ignorance and true colors. See it’s all about the money. Buy a big house, keep up with the Joneses, gotta have that granite counter. Everything that is wrong with the country and particularly at Christmas.
Every Christmas I’ve ever had, save 2 were spent in a rental. It ain’t about the house, it’s about the family.
“Have fun spending Christmas in a rental with all the other losers who failed at life.”
I have so much money from investing rather than owning real estate I can buy at least 15 new Porsche 9/11s, and put a bumper sticker on each that says “Low life Renter!”
The only problem of living cheap while amassing a lot of wealth is you are regarded by the snobs as worthless low life.
You know, you walk in blue jeans across a parking lot and some 1.5 ton vehicle cuts you off. Well you don’t flip them off when it’s your own apartment complex.
You drive your ten year old Toyota (runs well!) and get cut off by a Jaguar. You get mad and flip him off then he decides to just put his brakes on and slow you down. He purposely annoys you further. This happened to me in July on the 405 driving south toward Seal Beach exit.Then you think. The a$$hat who cut you off has a heap of problems, most likely financial, and in the meantime I can retire now!
Where’s Amy the Hoaxster?
The only problem of living cheap while amassing a lot of wealth is you are regarded by the snobs as worthless low life.
But thats the beauty of it…. oh the irony, no? The home-cheapo’ed new car driving debt-junkies think they’re fooling someone. In away they are… themselves.
I know alot of guys with millions… in the 3-20 million range yet you’d never know it. One of them drives a 2003 windlowless astro van. That’s his daily driver. And guess what; every day is a day of earning big $$$. Two of them I’ve discussed the economy and specifically housing and neither own any depreciating houses. Why? They know they’re a irrecoverable loss.
Who believes in debt? DebtJunkies. They don’t have two dimes to rub together and never will. Throwing good money after bad, month after month, year after year yet they have nothing to show for it.
Coffee is for closers.
Should this be read as a sign that inflation is soon to lift off?
Dec. 23, 2013, 8:29 a.m. EST
Lacker: Fed funds rate could hit 2% by end of 2015
By Ben Eisen
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said he believes the central bank will begin raising its target policy rate in early 2015. Speaking Monday on CNBC, Lacker said his forecast for the trajectory of the fed funds rate is the third-highest among members of the Fed. He expects the rate to hit 2% by the end of 2015, from its current target of near zero. “I put early 2015 for when fed funds rate will lift off but that is something that can change one way or another,” he said. The Fed said last week that it would begin scaling back the pace of its bond-buying program, but sought to distinguish that so-called taper from the tightening process of raising rates. Lacker was not a voting member of the policy committee in 2013 and won’t become one until 2015. Lacker, who said the tapering was a “slam dunk”, added that he saw as a base case that the Fed will shrink its monthly bond buys by an additional $10 billion each meeting, but could pause if economic data warranted.
There has to be wage inflation first. If federal funds rate goes to 2, not long after that the T-bills will yield 2%. 5 year notes will go next to 4%. 30 year mortgages to 6%.
And mortgage payments will go up. No pay invpcreases and mortgage payments go up for new home buyers. Repeat. And the power brokers still are pushing an ownership society. They have to decide to give that up or back off the increased lending rates.
Yearly predictions that never seem to come true:
1. We are about to urn out of oil
2. The ice caps are going to melt Florida will be under water
3. Hyperinflation is right around the corner
I wish you were banned.
He expects the rate to hit 2% by the end of 2015, from its current target of near zero Just as I suggested yesterday…The ultra wealthy have gorged on the ZIRP for sometime now…They have acquired all the assets that they wanted and placed long term financing on them @ 3% +-
Now that the employment picture is finally improving a bit they are ready to jack-em-up…Can’t have the minions participating in all this free money…Make them pay market rate dammit…!!!
“Now that the employment picture is finally improving”
BZZZZZZZZT!! Wrong again.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Does anyone besides me recall the Credit Crunch which hit around August 2007?
I’m wondering if the Chinese version has just commenced?
China cash squeeze persists even after central bank reassures market
A man walks past the headquarters of the PBOC in Beijing (Jason Lee Reuters, / November 20, 2013)
Gabriel Wildau Reuters
5:14 a.m. CST, December 23, 2013
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China’s cash market squeeze showed little sign of easing on Monday, reinforcing the view the central bank has shifted to tighter monetary policy.
The central bank appears to be trying to force banks to curb risky lending practices in the shadow banking system amid rising concerns about excessive debt. Rapid growth in the world’s second-largest economy over the last four years has also fanned fears about a property market bubble.
The key seven-day bond repurchase rate initially opened lower but then spiked to 8.9 percent on a weighted-average basis by mid-morning on Monday, up from 8.21 percent on Friday.
The central bank announced after market close on Friday that it had injected 300 billion yuan ($49.41 billion) via short-term liquidity operations from December 18 to 20. The seven-day rate reached as high as 10 percent on Friday, the highest level since June.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) also emphasized that excess cash reserves in the banking system — a key measure of liquidity — stood at more than 1.5 trillion yuan, a high level by historical standards. But market players took a different view.
“The PBOC appeared to stress that cash reserves are abundant in comparison to previous years, but the market has expanded sharply in recent years and demand in the interbank market has far exceeded the previous years’ levels,” said a money market trader at a major state-owned commercial bank in Shanghai.
…
I do. It was get stucco and he was spot on.
Your next forecast please.
The onset of the China credit crunch will be heralded by a collapse in the Bitcoin price.
Behold the handwriting on the wall:
Bitcoin’s collapse
China blues
Dec 18th 2013, 15:51 by D.K.
WHEN America sneezes, the world catches a cold. And when China bans oddball alternative investments, they plummet in price. That is what has happened to Bitcoin, which has lost around a third of its value since last night, falling below $500 earlier today from a high of more than $1,200 earlier this month. (It is now trading at around $580.) The reason for the panic is that the Chinese state has stopped financial firms from dealing with Bitcoin exchanges, which makes it almost impossible for anyone in China to buy or sell Bitcoin for yuan.
The Chinese, it seems, are worried that people may be using Bitcoin as a way to take yuan—not yet fully convertible—out of the country. They may also have concerns about its more nefarious uses enabling gambling or drug dealing. Since the Chinese have been rather enthusiastic buyers of Bitcoin of late, that Bitcoin owners took this as a cue to sell is hardly surprising. On the Reddit Bitcoin forum, the administrators have posted details of a suicide hotline as the threads are inundated with people who put their savings into the new currency.
To be fair, the Chinese cannot really be blamed for the collapse.
…
Does this mean I shouldn’t have quit my day job?
They may also have concerns about its more nefarious uses enabling gambling or drug dealing.
Yeah right. We have never used fiat for nefarious reasons.
Bitcoin is presently selling just below $700:
http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/bitcoin/bitcoin24hour.php
“Does this mean I shouldn’t have quit my day job?”
Your stopped clock advice to not quit your day job remains as valid as ever.
Friendly reminder:
The 2007-08 Financial Crisis In Review
By Manoj Singh on February 26, 2009
Filed Under: Bear Stearns, Business Bankruptcy, Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis, Hedge Funds, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, New Century Financial
When the Wall Street evangelists started preaching “no bailout for you” before the collapse of British bank Northern Rock, they hardly knew that history would ultimately have the last laugh. With the onset of the global credit crunch and the fall of Northern Rock, August 2007 turned out to be just the starting point for big financial landslides.
…
History wasn’t alone in having the last laugh. For some good laughs, not only last laughs but enduring laughs, try your hand at being a banker.
Does anyone besides me recall the Credit Crunch which hit around August 2007 ??
I remember it well….Around September I believe…Then the crash in September 2008…
feds drool, contractors rule:
‘at the time of the earlier selection process in 2007, cgi federal was still relatively new to federal contracting. it had grown out of cgi groups’s acquisition in 2004 of ams, which had a recent history of troubled projects, including a philadelphia school computer system that sent paychecks to dead people and a mississippi tax system so dysfunctional that a jury awarded a $474 million verdict against the firm.
ams projects had run into trouble at the federal level and in at least 12 states, according to government audit reports, interviews and news accounts. the purchase of ams was cgi’s entree into the u.s. government market, and ams executives flocked to cgi federal. today, more than 100 former ams employees are senior executives or consultants working for cgi in the washington area.’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/healthcaregov-contract-politics-not-a-factor-but-neither-were-firms-ties-to-failed-projects/2013/12/22/61728fca-6753-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_story.html
My summer intern will be working at CGI in 2014 after college graduation.
did i tell you that i’m getting a promotion and a raise?
my boss knows that i need more to do, and i welcome working on more complex and time-consuming projects, learning to live and breathe the far and dfars, build up some new skill sets, and hopefully bounce to another contractor in 2014-2015 for even more cash.
Congrats on upward movement and new beginnings. One good thing about government contracting is that the employers don’t even pretend to care how long you stayed at your previous position. The contractor itself isn’t particularly loyal or committed, so they don’t screen for that in potential employees. The upside for you or anyone similarly intelligent is, you can job hop yearly, slap a few new acronyms or titles on your resume, and trade up to a new job. It’s a good proposition for you, despite what it says about the contracting sector or the government’s reliance on contractors.
I’m possibly bouncing in the next month or so, after getting my bonus. I have an open offer where I’d just have to pass a conflicts check. Similar work, 20-25% more pay. I like where I am but my new thinking on independence is pushing me, makes me want to leave the comfort zone. I am no longer interested in partnership or being tied to a big firm.
There are many specific reasons, but mostly because the slavish devotion to firm politics (committees), lack of innovation, and the mantra of “growth” that has become a parody of itself. Once I realized I don’t need to put up with that B.S., it opened new ways of thinking, so I went whoring myself to higher bidders, who will pay more and allow me to save more. Even before MMM readership, I was sacking away about 60% of after-tax pay.
You should make a pilgrimage to MMM-land next year and climb a 14er.
I’m not even sure what a 14er is. Must be a northeast bedwetter form of ignorance.
I am hoping he is meaning a 14,000 foot mountain. I hate to have to put him on the sex offenders’ list.
Great from Wikipedia, we are safe, of course having lived in Utah and dealing with polygamists I was not sure. I hear that there is colony of them but Durango too:
In mountaineering terminology in the United States, a fourteener is a mountain that exceeds 14,000 feet (4,270 m) above mean sea level. The importance of fourteeners is greatest in Colorado, which has the majority of such peaks in North America. It is also significant in California, which has the second largest group of such peaks in the lower 48 states. Climbing all of Colorado’s fourteeners is a popular pastime among peak baggers; another popular target is climbing all of the fourteeners in the contiguous United States. Various ski mountaineers have completed ski descents of all the Colorado fourteeners, and the first attempts are being made to complete ski descents of all U.S. fourteeners
but Durango =by Durango. I once hired some polygamist women that had escaped from their cult. One had objected to be the 15th wife of her uncle when she was fifteen, can’t imagine why.
be=being, that one is just my mind being faster than my fingers.
I’ve been up 50 of them, they are getting too crowded, 13ers are where it’s at if you want more bears than people.
Liberace!
CGI is flush with cash after getting $600M to build the Obamacare website. Good place to work I would think.
Obama is enrolling for Obamacare today:
http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/health-reform-implementation/193847-obama-set-to-get-obamacare-just-under-deadline
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/366985/administration-extends-deadline-obamacare-sign-through-christmas-eve-eliana-johnson
CGI was put onto the CMMS “short list” during the bush years, in 2007. They’ve had a main line “in” with government contracting since then. As goon’s article points out, CGI acquired another contractor prior to being accepted by CMS and the evaluation people with CMS didn’t look closely at the outcomes of their previous contracting.
The fact is, government contracting is often not cost effective. It would often be better to keep things simple, do less, and have federal employees do quite a bit of the work (in this case, administer medicaid and medicare claims) while contracting out relatively short-term things as opposed to long-standing, core functions.
Building an innovative web portal like healthcare.gov is at least an example of something that should conceivably be contracted. The sickness in our procurement system is that the contractor culture pervades even the simplest, most basic functions of running the government.
Do coporations still use the profit to shore up the balance sheet and set aside some for future? I think whatever is made will be spent on bonuses and salaries, and they will be back for more next year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retained_earnings
My employer has $40B of cash and “cash equivalents” on the balance sheet.
My employer has $40B of cash and “cash equivalents” on the balance sheet.
Yeah…but they will not use that money to give a raise or bonus to the employees or to train and retain employees. If there’s a downturn next yer, first thing they will do is fire the employess..not dip in that reserves. The reserves are there for show….you can look but can’t touch…..for the employees’ benefits anyway.
Hope and Change
“Since taking office, President Obama has deported more than 1.9 million foreigners, immigration officials announced last week, a record for an American president. The officials said they focused on removing criminals, serious immigration offenders and recent border crossers, with 98 percent of deportees in 2013 in those groups, while sparing workers and their families. Mr. Obama is also pressing for an overhaul of immigration laws with a path to citizenship for those here illegally.
But immigrant leaders (sad panda boo hoo) say the enforcement has a broad impact on their communities, with deportations still seperating bread-winning parents from children and unauthorized immigrants from family members here legally, including American citizens.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/23/us/fears-multiply-amid-a-surge-in-deportation.html
if it’s separating families, maybe they should take their kids when they go.
This “separating families” meme is utter bullcrap. The parents can and should take their children with them, no question. The children are citizens of the parents’ home country. No one’s forcing the children to stay here, except maybe the parents, so they’re the ones at fault and being inhumane for dumping their kids in the US.
The deportation number is meaningless unless they tell us how many of them reenter next day.
http://nypost.com/2013/07/21/ny-food-stamp-recipients-are-shipping-welfare-funded-groceries-to-relatives-in-jamaica-dominican-republic-and-haiti/
When US citizen criminals go to jail it also separates families. I guess we should just empty all the prisons. For the children of course.
In trying to be sarcastic, you’ve actually come up with a good idea. Why not take most of the marijuana related non-violent crime and get those people back working and taking care of their families instead of idling in a prison for consuming a natural plant that grows on the planet and not actually causing any harm to society?
grows on the planet and not actually causing any harm to society ?
Cocaine was legal at one time also….Until the morality police got involved and realized what a huge business it could be to criminalize it and criminalize it with Felonies I might add…
But its for the children don’t you know…Think of the kids !!
I think it’s just aweful that Mexico won’t take these Mexican citizens in. They are WORKERS, for crying out loud. Mexico should welcome all Mexicans with open arms. Immigration reform now!
Whoops, from the link:
Correction: December 23, 2013
An earlier version of a headline with this article referred inaccurately to the rate of deportations by the Obama administration. While there has been a total of more than 1.9 million deportations under President Obama and there was a recent increase of removal operations in New Orleans, overall deportations decreased by 10 percent in fiscal 2013 from the previous year. There has not been a “surge.”
Deports decreasing.
When border and interior deportations are included, that total fell 10 percent from 2012, from nearly 410,000 to 368,644 this year. That is the lowest figure of President Obama’s five-year tenure.
U.S. spending increasing at a .5% rate for the month and income increasing at a .2% rate, that works under bubblenomics until it does not work.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/author/justthefactswuwt/
The difference between satellite data and NASA’s data.
Excerpt:
With apologies to John Gray, it can be seen from the above graph that the two data sets often either go in opposite directions or are different in other ways. Looking at the first 11 months, there are three months where the jumps are similar, namely May, October and November. However even for November, where both went in the same direction, there is a small discrepancy with respect to the ranking of their respective November anomalies. As we know, November on GISS at 0.77 was the warmest November ever. However the HadCRUT4 November at 0.596 was the third warmest November ever.
Quick close down so more coal power plants in the US so China can have some coal to burn in its plants that do not use any scrubbers even when they are built into the plants:
China saw its coal output increase 2.5% year on year to 330 million tons in Nov this year, according to the latest statistics released by the China National Coal Association.
Last month, the country’s major coal enterprises produced a total of 179 million tons of coal, reflecting a year on year increase of 6.1%.
In the first seven months of this year, the country’s coal output edged up 0.35% year on year to 3.42 billion tons.
According to an earlier statistic released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 291.63 million tons of coal in the first eleven months, up 15.1% from a year earlier, China Knowledge reported earlier.
Link:
http://www.chinamining.org/News/2013-12-23/1387762992d65124.html
Hope and Change
http://www.infowars.com/americans-brawl-over-new-air-jordan-sneakers/
More Hope and Change from “the most transparent administration in history”
http://www.infowars.com/nsa-panel-member-recommends-increased-data-collection/
BTW, Glenn Greenwald’s speech to the EU Parliament on NSA surveillance is airing on C-SPAN now. Look it up in their video library, it is excellent.
The very rich (0.1%) and the poor are the enemies of democracy. The Founding Fathers understood how Rome lost its democracy and became a dictatorship. When the poor population grew enough due to the importation of slaves, the rich through the use of bread and circuses were able to buy votes and increase their power.
The Founding Fathers put in place limits of federal government spending areas, (which were wiped out by an expansion of commerce clause) and limiting voters to property owners (essentially middle class). Any such limitations including the poll tax were wiped out during the sixties. Now, through Snap and programs such as Obama phones, the rich have brought back bread and circuses. Rich people use their money to win office (or their puppets) and then use the treasury to stay in office and further enrich themselves through legislative actions.
Rome was the example that the Founding Fathers sought to avoid and it is the template for the very rich today. Illegal aliens provide them both the “new slaves” and enlarge the numbers of the poor that can easily be bought off to vote to continue these policies. The middle class is not longer large enough to check the power of the rich.
Not= no or you can say not large enough
The very rich (0.1%) and the poor are the enemies of democracy.
You sound like a Marxist!
Actually, I’m a Marxist too. I love watching Groucho in old movies.
Yes, voters should only be white male landowners. That’s the best way to prevent a deep trench from forming between the only two classes.
Where in the constitution does it say that only white male landowners could vote? Look there were practical reasons not to allow slaves to be able to vote and tenant farmers not to vote since they could be controlled. However, free blacks were not uncommon in both the North and South and they owned land. I would have to go state by state to determine their voting rights. However, never forget that the decisive battle of the civil war was fought on the land owned by a free black man.
You will find that the constitution allowed the states to determine who could vote and there were states that allowed black landowners to vote and even one state that allowed women to vote. It is very unfair to not consider how much the Founding Fathers increased the percentage of people that were making the decisions and focus on the fact that they had to consider the thinking of the time on who would be capable of exercising the right to vote.
From Wikipedia:
Originally, the U.S. Constitution did not define who could vote and was simply built around a concept of rights of “person”, with voting not explicitly included in the rights. When the country was founded, in most states, only non-Negro men with real property-usually of at least 50 acres- (land) or sufficient wealth for taxation were permitted to vote.[citation needed] Women could vote in New Jersey, provided they could meet the property requirement, and in some local jurisdictions in other northern states. Men and women of color could also vote in these jurisdictions, provided they could meet the property requirement. Freed slaves could vote in four states. Unpropertied men and women, including slaves, were largely denied the franchise. At the time of the American Civil War, most white men were allowed to vote, whether or not they owned property. Literacy tests, poll taxes, and even religious tests were used in various places, and most white women, people of color, and Native Americans still could not vote.[2]
Additionally, the provision in the constitution that addresses slavery was an attempt to limit the power of slave states and to actually encourage the freeing of slaves not to diminish the worth of any human being. This attack of the founding fathers is largely orchestrated by globalists that want to diminish nationalism.
all you said it true.
However, never forget that the decisive battle of the civil war was fought on the land owned by a free black man.
did you know that the first slave owner in the USA was also a black man?
it=is
also, technically i should have said “colonial america”.
Two posts seem to have been lost in cyberspace so I will try again. The Founding Fathers restored democracy or a democratic republic to the fact of the earth for the first time in 1700 years and then get attacked by people because they do not meet the standards two hundred years later. It was a state issue and in some states black males could vote and at least one state property owning women could vote. The constitution did not define who could vote and certainly did not limit any ones right to vote, Wikipedia:
Originally, the U.S. Constitution did not define who could vote and was simply built around a concept of rights of “person”, with voting not explicitly included in the rights. When the country was founded, in most states, only non-Negro men with real property-usually of at least 50 acres- (land) or sufficient wealth for taxation were permitted to vote.[citation needed] Women could vote in New Jersey, provided they could meet the property requirement, and in some local jurisdictions in other northern states. Men and women of color could also vote in these jurisdictions, provided they could meet the property requirement. Freed slaves could vote in four states. Unpropertied men and women, including slaves, were largely denied the franchise. At the time of the American Civil War, most white men were allowed to vote, whether or not they owned property. Literacy tests, poll taxes, and even religious tests were used in various places, and most white women, people of color, and Native Americans still could not vote.[2]
“Freed slaves could vote in four states.”
Yes, but remember there were only 13 states. That is a significant number.
fact of the earth= face of the earth, autocorrect again.
Additionally, the provision in the constitution that addresses slavery was an attempt to limit the power of slave states and to actually encourage the freeing of slaves not to diminish the worth of any human being.
yes, i had that very argument with my comrade here a while ago. i kept telling him that frederick douglas, former slave, said the constitution was an anti-slavery document, even though he was hired by people that wanted him to call it a pro slavery document.
The very rich (0.1%) and the poor are the enemies of democracy.
Dan, neither are the enemies. the real enemy is the broken down morality than allows the envious to enact laws to steal. AKA, socialism. socialism through envy. that and the desire to have power over people for any reason.
‘the rich’ that everyone seems to rail against are a moving target. many make and lose fortunes. some of the richest men at one point have died penniless. they only become a menace when they can buy illegitimate government power. soros is a menace. buffett is a hypocrite. gates is a great high IQ businessman and an economic illiterate.
on the other hand, there are good rich men like jim rogers.
it isn’t their wealth that make men evil, it’s the evil that many men do with it.
Dan, neither are the enemies. the real enemy is the broken down morality than allows the envious to enact laws to steal
I did not mean to suggest that all the poor or all the rich were enemies. Just that the history of Rome demonstrates that these two groups can work together to undermine democracy. If you read Tocqueville and I suspect you have, he talked both about how the rich had been sidelined from controlling America and how the poor still posed a threat to democracy, if they found out they could vote themselves other peoples money. People also forget that the Revolutionary war was also a civil war and you would have found most of the wealthy supporting the British. The expansion of the sharing of power accomplished by the founding fathers was remarkable since the ownership of land was quite common in the New World. People like Jefferson also tried to prevent the spreading of slavery to the territories of the US. However, they were reasonably concerned that the power to vote not be given to people that had not been taught history and would not understand the need to limit the power of government. People like George Washington were great and willing to voluntarily limit their power for democracy. He could have been King and he voluntarily limited himself to two terms. Obama certainly would not voluntarily limit himself.
i have no problem with what you wrote here Dan.
i’m just saying that neither the rich nor the poor are evil because of their wealth status.
the only legitimate role of any government should be to protect the lives, rights and property of its citizens. and rights should be natural rights. all this ‘do-gooding’ especially at the federal level needs to end. it all comes to no good.
Taper as always is a big lie.
As my British friend and colleague, Andrew Hunt has pointed out — Fed and American commentators take note — so far in 2013 the Fed’s actual monthly purchase of bonds — the size of QE — has averaged $94 billion, or $9 billion above the advertised pace of $85 billion per month. Yet apparently no one has noticed and the Fed hasn’t advertised the extra QE . If no one noticed the gap, apparently a $9 or $10 billion difference in QE is no big deal.
Yes, I have been reading about that. They will spend whatever it takes to keep interest rates down, the announced taper limits are not rules, they are more like “guidelines”.
Are you saying that tapirs are liars? That’s rude.
Professional!
Robert J. Samuelson
Opinion Writer
A frustrated Fed
(Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg) - Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, in Washington, D.C., Dec. 18.
By Robert J. Samuelson, Published: December 22
The Fed turns 100 Monday. A century ago — on Dec. 23, 1913 — President Woodrow Wilson signed legislation establishing the Federal Reserve. Broadly speaking, it was charged with preventing financial crises and preserving prosperity. The record is mixed. Despite many successful years (the 1920s, 1940s, 1950s, 1980s and 1990s), the Fed’s performance is marred by three huge blunders: the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Great Inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s and the 2008-09 financial crisis. Had the Fed acted differently in each case, the outcome would have been different and better.
There’s a disheartening consistency to the Fed’s cycles of success and failure. The beliefs and policies of one era aren’t suitable to the conditions and challenges of the next, but the Fed adapts only slowly under the press of events.
Created after the Panic of 1907, the Fed first focused on averting bank runs. At the time, loan demand and interest rates were highly seasonal; they rose in the spring and the fall, reflecting the credit needs of planting and harvesting crops. Any nasty surprise (bad harvests, business failures, stock market losses) risked a run, as depositors feared that strapped banks couldn’t return their money. After all, most of it had been lent out. Unlike today, deposit insurance didn’t exist.
The Fed solved this problem, says Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron. Money became more “elastic.” When credit demand was high, the Fed lent more. Seasonal interest-rate swings subsided. Confidence grew because depositors knew that, in a panic, banks could borrow from the Fed to meet currency demands. In the 1920s, there were no major bank runs.
But what succeeded in the 1920s backfired in the 1930s. Faced with a collapsing economy, “the Federal Reserve did next to nothing to foster recovery,” writes economist Allan Meltzer in his exhaustive history of the Fed. It was passive, because — based on its 1920s experience — weak loan demand signaled that there was little for the Fed to do. Credit seemed easy; loanable funds seemed ample.
…
The Fed turns 100 Monday.
Too bad there isn’t a peaceful protest scheduled for today; I would attend…
Excerpt from Gold seek today:
“Those who create and issue the money and credit direct the policies of government and hold in their hands the destiny of the people.”
- Reginald McKenna, President of the Midlands Bank of England
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” - Henry Ford
“The powers vested in the Federal Reserve Board seem to me highly dangerous, especially where there is political control of the Board. I should be sorry to hold stock in a bank subject to such domination. The bill as it stands seems to me to open the way to a vast inflation of the currency…. I had hoped to support this bill, but I can not vote for it as it stands, because it seems to me to contain features and to rest upon principles in the highest degree menacing to our prosperity, to stability in business, and to the general welfare of the people of the United States.“ Senator Henry Cabot Lodge, Dec 17, 1913
Glinda :“You’ve always had the power to go back to Kansas.” Frank Baums ‘Wizard of Oz’
By Jack Mullen
The single most important and by far the most powerful blow to post Rome humanity has been the global banking cartel’s attachment of a counterfeit United States Federal agency (The Federal Reserve) to the organic United States Treasury; a parasite, attaching itself to the economic life blood of the American States.
The so-called “Federal Reserve” act, signed on a lonely 23rd day of December 1913, when congressional representatives had either already gone home for Christmas or were getting ready to depart, was the culmination of more than 100 years of effort on the part of banking cartels scheming to engorged themselves on the wealth of America.
The banking coup of 1913 was masterpiece of deceit finalizing a war between literate well educated elites attempting to keep mankind and especially property owners free from enslavement by a central bank, and a coven of exorbitantly wealthy elites, showing no concern for mankind and already possessing enormous property and assets. The latter were intensely focused on harnessing the Union of States with the yoke of a debt based currency; the stolen wealth to fund a grandiose multigenerational obsession to rule the world.
Inventing ‘money’ borrowed into existence steals wealth in two primary ways. First, through interest payments on ‘money’ borrowed. Since no ‘money’ actually exists but is only printed or created as needed, the interest payments are payments for use of something non-existent.
“If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon” — President Barack Obama
http://www.picpaste.com/imageproxy-mvc-hTiJdiJi.jpeg
Happy Holidays!
http://picpaste.com/3536fe679ad5f24f6144f5328866b259.jpg
Cute kids mugz
Nice looking kids!
If we had a cute kids contest, they would be hard to beat.
18 months apart or so…Maybe 2 years ??
18 Exact ^
do you know what her smile is saying? it’s saying “i’m so proud of brother”. he’s a lucky little guy to have sister than loves him so much.
I can’t see the picture as it’s blocked from office computer.
I bet they are screaming…WHERE IS OUR HOME? You said you gonna by one….
LOL.
They’re screaming, “SAVE US! WE WERE BORN INTO RENTERSHIP”
The look of terror on the girl’s face is impossible to endure. Where should we send the donations?
Gold’s safe-haven role is over: Societe Generale
December 23, 2013, 11:01 AM
Gold’s collapse is one of the top market stories of 2013. Its inability to rally in the wake of what had previously been positive news shows that the yellow metal has lost its once-crucial role as a “safe haven,” argues Patrick Legland, Paris-based cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale.
…
Still trying to knockdown the price of gold but the physical will win out over the paper gold:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/23/us-india-gold-smuggling-idUSBRE9BM0CK20131223
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1387803600.php
About manipulation of gold prices.
From the article:
Allegations that banks are rigging the gold and silver markets continue to gain credence and Bloomberg have published an article by Rosa Abrantes-Metz entitled ‘How to Keep Banks From Rigging Gold Prices’ (see article including charts below).
Rosa Abrantes-Metz concludes that gold prices may be manipulated and gives evidence to support her assertion. Abrantes-Metz is adjunct associate professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and a director in the antitrust, securities and financial regulation practices of Global Economics Group.
Falling gold prices despite robust physical demand this year, especially in China, have intensified allegations that gold prices are being manipulated lower. This is the contention of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), influential blog Zero Hedge and others who contend that bullion banks and central banks may be intervening and surreptitiously manipulating gold prices lower in order to maintain faith in fiat currencies.
It is an important debate and one that has ramifications not just for the gold and silver market but for markets in general and for free market capitalism.
‘allegations that gold prices are being manipulated lower’
I wish they’d do that with houses.
Anyway, if you are interested in gold or silver, why not use the lower prices to accumulate more?
I agree Ben and I stated that a few days ago that we should look at the manipulation as a gift since middle class folk seldom get a chance to know that something is being deliberatively held down and buy it cheap.
It’s baloney that anything is manipulated. But in the current environment, everything is being manipulated.
That’s the thing about physical metals. It is what it is and once it’s in your possession, they can’t change that. The people who are sticking their neck out are the metals derivatives holders.
It’s baloney that anything is manipulated. But in the current environment, everything is being manipulated.
Yes, and the housing manipulation holding prices up is just the opposite side of the coin to gold being held down. Without the ability to create fiat currency at will by the Fed the banks would have had to sell their stocks of foreclosed houses for pennies on the dollar to redeploy the funds in something that was generating interest. Due to the Fed, they were handed money that they could keep at the Fed and receive .25% interest risk free or buy government bonds at the prevailing interest rates. In any event, it allowed them to keep the houses off the market until they could manipulate a price rise.
“Fed the banks would have had to sell their stocks of foreclosed houses for pennies on the dollar”
That’s precisely what they’ll yield anyways.
“In any event, it allowed them to keep the houses off the market until they could manipulate a price rise.”
And this manipulated price rise saved the banker’s collective a$$es because a rise in prices of houses translated into a rise in values of mortgages backed by these very same houses.
Spread the word that you want to save the banks and you will get shouted down. Spread the word that you want to save underwater homebuyers and you will be greeted as a hero.
It’s all in the packaging, in the marketing. A very easy sell to a dumbed-down population.
If only someone, somewhere had warned America about this clusterfark….
By Jacqueline Leo
December 22, 2013 5:30 AM
Yahoo News
Obamacare has delivered another sucker punch to the middle class. This time it’s sticker shock. Now that a few people can get past the tech problems of HealthCare.gov and actually see the real cost of insurance plans available, they are finding that Affordable Care is big hit to the family budget. And when the family budget gets hit in the solar plexus, guess what happens to consumer spending and the economy.
In California, policies for about 900,000 Californians are being canceled because of Obamacare’s mandates and about 2/3rd of these do not qualify for subsidies, according to The Chicago Tribune. The result—these folks will be paying higher premiums.
In Alabama, premiums have doubled for some middle class families like Courtney Long, a stay-at-home mother of four. She told WHNT News. “It’s devastating. I started crying,” said Long. “I mean, we have worked so hard to get out of credit card debt, get ahead on the car loan, transfer our mortgage to a 15 from a 30 year mortgage… and for what?
In Washington State, Obamacare will increase the underlying cost of individually purchased health insurance by 34-80 percent on average, according to Forbes. The list goes on and on and includes Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, Georgia and North Carolina. But premiums are just the beginning. The deductibles are outrageous, too. “
http://mobile.wnd.com/2012/09/claim-obama-hid-gay-life-to-become-president/
An interesting attack on Obamacare coming from the left. All I can say is maybe the members of Congress from the left should have read it before they voted for it. Whether the reasons for the failure of Obamacare are caused by what the insurance companies lobbied for or not, no Republican voted for the bill and the left should have followed the oath of doctors and first done no harm. Obamacare is worse than doing nothing and a total repeal would still be better than leaving it in place.
http://clearingthefogradio.org/obamacare-the-biggest-insurance-scam-in-history/
The premiums are very high considering the deductibles and copays. I can stomach a high deductible. But a high premium, high deductible, and high copay adds up to nothing but a huge WASTE of money. If a person were to pay insurance premiums at today’s prices throughout their entire life, then they will have probably paid enough for a heart surgery and a cancer treatment already.
Obamacare is not and never was about health insurance. It’s a way to redistribute money from evil rich people who working class heroes. The hero making $25K a year loves Obamacare. He pays nothing a month with no deductibles. This of course on top of the $0 he pays in taxes. Obama’s base loves it.
“The hero making $25K a year loves Obamacare. He pays nothing a month with no deductibles”
False. At least in California. A single male, 40, making 25K a year will pay, after federal tax credit assistance, $60 to 70 a month for the cheap (bronze) plan and ~$150 for the silver. The deductible is $4500 for this individual in the Bronze plan and $1500 for the silver. Maximum yearly out of pocket ranges from 4K to 6K. Happy to help.
Housing may not be affordable, but if the stock market continues going up 1/2-1 percent EVERY day, many additional people will be priced into the housing market. I have a friend who is a local realtor and he has, according to him, closed almost a dozen deals in the last two months that were all cash (upper middle class - upper class neighborhoods) due to people liquidating stock and buying real estate, some for personal homes, others for investment properties.
The rate at which the stock market is going up just amazes me…I’m sure if I were to suddenly put my life savings into it, it would finally have its long-overdue correction. But at least I’m not bitter.
“Housing may not be affordable, but if the stock market continues going up 1/2-1 percent EVERY day, many additional people will be priced into the housing market. I have a friend who is a local realtor and he has, according to him, closed almost a dozen deals in the last two months that were all cash (upper middle class - upper class neighborhoods) due to people liquidating stock and buying real estate, some for personal homes, others for investment properties.”
And you’re foolish enough to believe him.
It assumes that the majority of people priced out of the housing market have a substantial stake in the stock market. That is a very dubious assumption. What percentage of houses are bought by people in this upper middle class and what income level is used to define upper middle class?
It assumes that the majority of people priced out of the housing market have a substantial stake in the stock market. That is a very dubious assumption.
Agreed. Most people with portfolios like that already own a house.
And just how many households have that kind of stock market wealth to begin with? Sure, maybe in places like Silly Valley you’ll get an above average share of IPO or buyout winners, but even there those people are the exception and not the rule.
I wouldn’t say “priced out” per se; my landlord back in California was big into rental properties and daytrading. That was in 2006. He lost all his rental properties, and lost a bunch in the stock market in the subsequent collapse. Now…he is back at it on both accounts.
My point is…the economy is in the toilet. The masses are doing very poorly. But there is a sizable proportion of people who do have a job, who have invested in the stock market through 401(k) or even through a brokerage account, and are benefiting tremendously as stock prices have nearly tripled in the last four years. Undeniable fact. These people are definitely spending more, frequenting restaurants, stores, etc, and making huge purchases (cars, boats, houses) with this newfound “wealth.” It reminds me very much of 2004-05 with houses, although it is concentrated in a much smaller group of people.
And yes, I am aware of people that lived rent free for several years after defaulting on their homes, but still had decent jobs and could afford the speculative house purchase, but chose not to once the value cratered, who kept investing in their stock-401(k). Winner winner chicken dinner!
Why not? Seems reasonable enough. If you have a $1M portfolio in the S&P500, it is roughly gaining $5,000-$10,000 PER DAY at the current rate of increase; in the past three years, any minor drop in stocks (1/10 percent), is called a “selloff” by the MSM, and the broader market is up by 10% just since the government shutdown. Many individual companies are up far more than that.
BTW, I am surprised by how much you idolize Suze Orman, of all people. I vividly recall her advising a caller from SF who “didn’t really want to buy a house there in the city because he was concerned that housing may drop, but his partner wanted to”. He had good income and Suze’s advice was “don’t be a scaredy cat…go ahead and buy.” That was 2008. Anyone who looks up to Suze Orman is a fool.
Fixt it for you
Anyone who
looks up to Suze Ormanbought a house in the last 14 years is a fool.Mom says no more internet or X-Box until you bring all the dirty dishes upstairs from the basement, and you need to put in applications at Subway and Hardees or she’s taking your i-phone away.
Amy, you put the ho in hoax or the false flag in the comments.
So that’s how rent boy saved all the money he doesn’t know what to do with. He rode the coattails at good ol’ mom and pops place. Makes sense now. Hey, I’m not mad. i would love to have free meals and scott free living too!
tis the season. Sing jingle balls for us.
realtors are liars
but if the stock market continues going up 1/2-1 percent EVERY day, many additional people will be priced into the housing market.
first, not that many will be ‘priced into the market’ whatever that means. the total amount of dollars in circulation doesn’t change because the market goes up or down anyway. it just means that different people have those dollars than before.
second, even if it were true, why would they be induced to buy an over priced home or anything else just because they have more money? does a millionaire buy and drink more beer if he gets another million dollars?
In other words, you have a friend who is trying to convince you to give him a commission check.
I’ve been gone from this blog for quite a while. Is this Amy chic for real?
No she’s not.
I’ve wavered back and forth if she is real. Some of her comments are so over the top “bubble stupid” I think that they MUST be sarcastic, intended to highlight the stupidity of real estate only goes up thinking. Other times she just seems too serious about trivialities a one dimensional troll would be expected to not respond to. Overall, if she is some kind of troll character creation I have to say bravo to the actor playing her. You’ve brought some depth to trolling as an art form.
If on the other hand she IS real… oh boy I almost feel sorry… it’s almost like watching a kitten play with dynamite…
I don’t think so but I guess it is a matter of opinion. I am sure Ben knows whether it is just one of us having fun but he is too professional to out Amy.
Is this Amy chic for real ??
Nobody is quite sure but suspicion is that its RAL under his multiple of handles…One obvious indicator is RAL always immediately responds to Amy and visa versa…More than a coincidence..Just ignore her also…
Yet you continue to respond. Take your own advice hypocrite.
How about we ask Jonesy how many usernames I have? Then we’ll ask him about you.
If you’re still renting after age 25 that’s just failure to launch.
Don’t forget boys and girls, NASA often fails to launch according to schedule so they can correct issues that would have killed the astronauts… For a chuckle, imagine a realtor henpecking Mission Control to launch the space shuttle despite a problem since a realtor always knows best!!
If you are not deep in debt by the time you are twenty five, your parents have taught you well.
My bet is on goon.
I was thinking that too.
Just another lying, scamming realtor…
Incredible black ice this morning up here in the Columbia Basin. The only safe roads are the busy main roads. Sidewalks are still slick as greased lightening at lunch time. A thick blanket of freezing fog is the deal for today. Fugg’n sukz!
Vermont has similar conditions.
A thick blanket of freezing fog is the deal for today ??
Was just speaking with my cousin in Grants Pass Oregon this morning…Thats what he was saying…It has been very, very cold…
High 70’s, a little humid, sunny all day long in St. Pete.
I staked out my hit and run location for 1.5 hours with my camera. Saw about 30 cars that fit the description… total waste of time.
I did learn, however, that my ‘hood is way shadier (not palm tree shade) when you stop and people watch. I’m not sure how I feel about that. I’d get a CCW, but it would be pointless since I work in education and would never realistically be able to carry.
Anyway, the weather is nice.
In meteorology, an inversion is a deviation from the normal change of an atmospheric property with altitude. It almost always refers to a “temperature inversion”, i.e., an increase in temperature with height, or to the layer (”inversion layer”) within which such an increase occurs. Temperature inversion can notoriously result in freezing rain in cold climates. –Wikipedia
This is what happens when the small fish try to pay their friends in the government a portion of the money they get from the government.
The contractor overbilled the Navy to the measly sum of 20 million. A portion of those proceeds were directed back to Navy officials to help keep the contracts coming in.
Navy Secretary Mabus expects bribery scandal to widen
By Craig Whitlock, Published: December 20
The Washington Post
Prosecutors estimate that the government was cheated out of more than $20 million by the alleged fraud scheme.
So far, two Navy commanders have been arrested and charged with taking bribes from the company in the form of cash, luxury travel and prostitutes. Two captains have been suspended or reassigned by the Navy. And two admirals who work in Navy intelligence have had their access to classified materials suspended while investigators scrutinize their possible involvement.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/navy-secretary-mabus-expects-bribery-scandal-to-widen/2013/12/20/c85f8ece-6990-11e3-8b5b-a77187b716a3_story.html
Wall Street has learned you gotta pay the politicians themselves, not just government workers. Politicians write the laws that keep them and their cronies untouchable.That takes a lot of money.
It’s a small club and you ain’t in it.
It’s a small club and you ain’t in it.
I miss George Carlin.
The plans, available details, and prices on the Obamacare website are different today than they were two days ago.
Cheaper? Perhaps Christmas sale…
There are now some additional plans that only cover doctors in certain counties, and they’re cheaper. Also, it used to be that you couldn’t get the details of any plan until you actually applied and had them send it to you in the mail. Now you can actually see everything online. There are out-of-pocket maximums, and provider lists, which didn’t used to be there.
“There are out-of-pocket maximums, and provider lists, which didn’t used to be there.”
WOW!! Sort of like what ehealthinsurance.com had in 2005. Incredible.
And all this for the low low price of $600M tax payer dollars.
There are now some additional plans that only cover doctors in certain counties, and they’re cheaper.
There are plans that only cover African witch doctors and they are affordable.
Dude. There is now another company or group or whatever. It has been 50 minutes since I last checked. Also, the website is broken, so I can’t actually apply for coverage.
Broken again? I hope you will be able to sign in today. Fingers crossed.
Come to think about it….if I was in your position, I would just pay fine.
Another record high close for S&P500.
Will this economic depression ever end?
The best stock market in the late 90’s early 2000’s in nominal terms was Zimbabwe, just saying.
He probably doesn’t get that.
http://mises.org/daily/2532
From link that will post soon:
The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (the ZSE) is the best performing stock exchange in the world, the key Zimbabwe Industrials Index up some 595% since the beginning of the year and 12,000% over twelve months. This jump in share prices is far in excess of increases in consumer prices. While the country is crumbling, the Zimbabwean share speculator is keeping up much better than the typical Zimbabwean on the street.
CNBC logic fails to explain the coincidence of a rising ZSE and collapsing GDP because it entirely ignores the monetary side of the economy. At this point Austrian economics makes its contribution to our story. According to Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), the peak-trough-peak pattern that economies demonstrate is not their natural state, but one created by excess growth in money supply and credit. New money is not simply parachuted to everyone equally and at the same time — it is sluiced into the economy at certain initial “entry points.” From these entry points, a number of initial goods are bought by recipients of new money causing a rise in price for these initial goods relative to other goods.
The bubblenomics actually ran a bit longer than I remembered in Zimbabwe. BTW, another great article on the same site:
http://mises.org/daily/6616/100-Years-Ago-Why-Bankers-Created-the-Fed
The Obama recovery is here. Thanks, Obama.
He won’t give credit to Obama either.
I’m looking forward to next summer’s reading of the Eastern Washington State / Central Idaho Recreational Waterpark Attendence Index as further evidence that this recovery has legs.
Thanks, Obama.
And Slithers knows what he’s talking about, it’s frequently cited in the Fed’s Beige Book.
And I waited 5 minutes longer than normal at the Chik-Fil-A drive-thru today. This recovery is ON FIRE.
Thanks, Obama.
Joe and Rio are not going to be happy that you eat there.
And to be fair, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid deserve credit for this recovery too. Now that’s hope and change you can believe in.
Obamacare reduced Nancy’s role in 2010 and could very well reduce Harry’s role in 2014, thanks Obamacare.
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
It is too early in the day to be smoking pot, Goon. Don’t think I am not on to you about Joe either. You attend to hike in grizzly country. First rule in Ggizzly country, you don’t need to be faster than the bear, just the person you are hiking with. I guess it is o.k. because Greek food is probably healthy for Bears too.
I tried to find some last minute gifts at Wal-Mart today, but they were stripped clean of all of their Duck Dynasty merchandise. If consumers didn’t have jobs and money, how would they buy all of it?
Thanks, Obama.
Attend for intend, maybe it is too early for me to be smoking pot.
Attend for intend, maybe it is too early for me to be smoking pot.
It’s called Rocky Mountain High for a reason!
you’re all a bunch of racis. antyhing less than slobbering devotion to dear leader is rasism. obama owns you. all your base is belong to obama
If consumers didn’t have jobs and money, how would they buy all of it?
Walmart lay-away.
That is racist.
And besides that, the kidz don’t “smoke pot”, they smoke hash oil atomizers and vaporizers.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=vape
ft dot com
December 18, 2013 11:59 pm
Bernanke puts Fed on autopilot as he leaves the cockpit
By Robin Harding in Washington
When Ben Bernanke turned and walked out of his final press conference at the US Federal Reserve he left behind some unexpectedly detailed guidance that will constrain his successor, Janet Yellen, for most of her first year in office.
Mr Bernanke will chair one more meeting before Ms Yellen takes over on February 1, but December’s decision to taper asset purchases from $85bn to $75bn a month in effect marked the moment of handover. Mr Bernanke said that Ms Yellen “fully supports what we did today”.
The Fed split the difference between a December and a January taper by announcing the change now, but not putting it into effect until the start of next year. That avoids any end-of-year hit to market liquidity.
A bigger surprise was the level of detailed forward guidance that Mr Bernanke provided – much more comprehensive than it appeared at first glance – which lays out a course for Fed policy well into 2014.
“We’re trying here to get a high level of accommodation,” Mr Bernanke said. “The action today is intended to keep the level of accommodation more or less the same overall and enough to push the economy forward.”
…
I don’t know about you guys, but I’m not doing my part this year to prop up holiday retail sales.
Sales data pointing toward blue Christmas for retail
Retailers’ sales fall in final week ahead of Christmas
December 23, 2013, 4:57 PM
By Andria Cheng
Target Corp. isn’t the only retailer (TGT -0.34%) preoccupied with damage control. Retailers, in the final countdown to Christmas, are up against disappointing sales in their biggest season of the year.
One more sign sales missed the mark: retailers’ in-store sales for the week ended Sunday, Dec. 22, fell 3.1% from a year earlier while traffic plunged 21%, according to traffic tracker ShopperTrak. The decline is worth noting because Friday, Saturday and Sunday, along with Black Friday, were expected to be among the top four shopping days of the season.
The performance compared with ShopperTrak’s original forecast of sales increasing 2.4% and traffic declining 10% in November and December combined.
Sales in November and through Dec. 15 also have missed the mark, up 2% even though November sales itself was a bright spot, up 3.4%.
…
Maybe you need a federal reserve gift card?