Is There Time To Save The Spring?
A reader suggested a topic on changes in lending. “Is there time to save the Spring? We have FHA loan limits dropping, but that could be changed pretty quickly. A little micro taper, same. Prices starting to drop in some areas again. I seem to recall this happening once before after the crash, drops that looked like they’d start to turn the tide back to a more historically normal real estate market, and then they put in the floor.”
The Daily Herald. “Starting Jan. 1 Federal Housing Administration guidelines change and the limit for single family homes goes down to $271,050 from $323,000. That means that if you’re wanting to buy a home with an FHA-insured loan you will get less house than you could if you closed by the end of the month. For two-family homes the new FHA limit will be $347,000, and $419,425 for three-family homes and $521,25 for four-family homes in Utah County.”
“The good news for local sellers is that they, on average, are getting nearly their asking price for well-priced homes. That doesn’t mean that listings aren’t expiring or being taken off the market. Many of the potential sellers I’ve talked to whose listings have expired say they now want to wait until spring before relisting. Many are hopeful that waiting will net them more cash for their homes. The threat, however, is that interest rates are ticking upward, which could affect their sales price.”
“Meanwhile, as the economy gets stronger, mortgage rates are also working their way up, which affects both buyers and sellers. It’s not the time to wait to buy. With every uptick you buy less home or pay more for the home you want. So now buyers have a one-two punch to deal with: rising prices and interest rates. And then FHA comes along and lowers the limits. Go figure. Fully one third of all home purchases in this country are funded with an FHA loan.”
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “Lenders say new federal rules that stress a cookie-cutter approach to who qualifies for a mortgage are about to make it more difficult and time-consuming for many home buyers to get financing. The rules, which take effect in January, are intended to ensure borrowers can repay their loans. They contend the standardized rules issued as part of Congress’ financial reform package are an overreaction that will make it tough for some loan-worthy consumers to get a mortgage; perhaps enough of them to affect the housing market recovery.”
“‘This is going to really affect consumers,’ said Thomas J. Pamperin, chairman of the Wisconsin Bankers Association. ‘This is going to be a big deal.’”
“One key concern of bankers is what the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is calling a ‘qualified mortgage.’ Under a rule that takes effect Jan. 10, a borrower’s debt expenses must be no more than 43 percent of total gross income to be eligible as a qualified mortgage. A qualified mortgage has the bureau’s ’safe harbor’ protection, meaning a lender is protected from lawsuits by homeowners who claim their foreclosure resulted from flawed underwriting.”
“The new rules say mortgages that exceed the 43 percent debt-to-income cap won’t have the stamp of approval by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and wouldn’t have the same legal shield if the loan ever went bad. Mortgages underwritten to the standards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other federal agencies also will be considered qualified mortgages.”
“Pamperin said the rules don’t take into account that banks in many smaller communities know their customers and whether they can make their monthly mortgage payments _ even if their debt-to-income ratio is greater than 43 percent. ‘There’s a lot of people who are self-employed. There’s a lot of people who make their living from the land in some manner. When you start talking about income … these people really know how to make a dollar go a long way,’ Pamperin said. ‘So when there are rules that come out that say, ‘We know what people need to spend on housing,’ it’s difficult for these people to understand that somebody in Washington is making the decision as to who’s going to qualify for a mortgage.’”
“The financial condition of borrowers will receive more scrutiny as lenders attempt to make sure debts and income are what borrowers say they are, bankers say. ‘Right now we’re turning over boulders in someone’s history,’ said Michael Kellman, senior vice president for consumer credit sales at Brookfield, Wis.-based North Shore Bank. ‘Now we’re going to be turning over every pebble.’”
8 News Now. “Underwater Nevada homeowners may end up owing tens of thousands more in taxes if the federal government does not act soon. When people short sell their home or when banks forgive part of a homeowner’s loan, the feds count that as extra income on taxes. Congress is set to let the Homeowners Tax Relief Act expire at New Years, which means Nevadans already in debt could face even more debt.”
“Foreclosure expert Tony Martin says 2013 was a roller-coaster year for the Las Vegas housing market. ‘If you take away the ability to short sell, I think the only option that you have for banks to raise capital is to auction,’ Martin said. If auctions get flooded, then all Las Vegas home values, which are slowly climbing out of recession lows, could start sliding once again.”
The Portland Business Journal. “Homebuyers in Portland and 21 other metro areas are more optimistic about their chances of finding the right home as the residential real estate market cools for the winter. Redfin, an online real estate firm, surveyed 518 active homebuyers who have toured with a Redfin agent in the months since August the week of Nov. 21 to 24. Interestingly, homebuyers showed unreasonable expectations around mortgage interest rate. Redfin said more than 80 percent of buyers believe that the ‘normal’ rate for a 30-year mortgage is below five percent. In reality, the interest rate for a 30-year mortgage has averaged 6.7 percent since 1990.”
“Of concern, 40 percent of homebuyers told Redfin they would be unable or unwilling to buy if mortgage rates rise further — a likely event.”
“Meanwhile, as the economy gets stronger, mortgage rates are also working their way up, which affects both buyers and sellers. It’s not the time to wait to buy. With every uptick you buy less home or pay more for the home you want.”
Ha Ha Ha. Buy now or be priced out forever.
If prices go up AND interest rates go up then what he have here, folks, is a financial oxymoron: If the cost of buying rises due to the rise in interest rates then this rise in interest rate cost should act to drive down the price.
If people can only afford so-much-a-month for a purchase of a house (or of anything else) then this so-much-a-month affordability should limit how much they can pay. But for some reason or other it doesn’t work out this way. Raise the price AND at the same time raise interest rates and affordability should go down, and if affordability goes down then sales should dry up because less and less a people will be able to afford to buy.
But in the case of real estate this does not happen (or, rather, is not currently happening) because this lack of affordability issue is what helps drives sales because it is thought that no matter how unaffordable houses are today they will be even more unaffordable tomorrow.
IOW, do it today even it it doesn’t make sense because waiting to do it tomorrow will make even less sense.
With no liar loans available, you can’t buy the house if your wages don’t support it. Investors cannot carry a market. Therefore, with few buyers, prices will have to drop to attract more buyers who can actually afford houses. Wages determine sales, not emotion.
“Wages determine sales, not emotions.”
That’s quite a humorous statement considering the history of emotional driven manias.
Just because wages aren’t there to support sales doesn’t mean sales aren’t going to happen.
“Just because wages aren’t there to support sales doesn’t mean sales aren’t going to happen.”
You either need wages, lax lending standards, or buyers sufficiently flush with cash to bring downpayments.
And by the time prices drop back down this time, a couple of new things will be evident. 1. The Blackstone buy for rental investment cash flow model will have been shown to be a fools ponzi that went belly up; 2. The powers that be in govt will be able to shirk more of the blame because people will know they had a chance to get out and blew it not through the fault of govt/banks but through their own greed.
No, what’s quite humorous is that you seem to ignore the reality that there has to be cash or financing available to buy things, in this case houses. Housing prices didn’t spike because of emotion, they spiked because of a credit bubble.
“Housing prices didn’t spike because of emotion, they spiked because of a credit bubble.”
What we learned during the recent episode that if you make credit freely available to everybody, then people with absolutely nothing to lose will be first in line to borrow more than they can ever hope to repay in order for the short-term benefit of living in a larger abode than they could otherwise afford based on their permanent income. These YOLO-minded gamblers were enabled through subprime lending to outbid anyone who chose to live within his (yes I mean “his”) means.
Further, anyone who tried to exercise financial prudence by staying away from the mania was summarily screwed by government-sponsored bailouts of mortgage borrowers and lenders.
As a former part owner of a luxury auto dealership emotion drives everything, thus leasing was invented to put folks in cars that they couldn’t afford in the world of traditional lending.
Many folks have great wages but lousy credit, and leverage to the hilt. The fine line of emotional buying you have mixed up with people who have little income to afford a car let alone a house, these are not emotional buyers.
Quick example , couple has fair income, no debt, and xlnt credit with lots of money in the bank. Other couple has large income, and large debt, with little money in the bank.
Both these folks are emotional driven they want a BMW right now, guess who the sales consultants want to deal with first?
“As a former part owner of a luxury auto dealership emotion drives everything, thus leasing was invented to put folks in cars that they couldn’t afford in the world of traditional lending.”
You can have all the emotion in the world, but without funding there is no sale. It’s the availability of cash or credit which determines prices.
BINGO
“As a former part owner of a luxury auto dealership emotion drives everything,…”
Oh really? I’d rather be driving a Tesla than my modestly priced Japanese sedan. Where is my Tesla? I demand a Tesla, right now!!! It’s my God-given right to drive a Tesla, and I want it bad!
‘homebuyers showed unreasonable expectations around mortgage interest rate. Redfin said more than 80 percent of buyers believe that the ‘normal’ rate for a 30-year mortgage is below five percent. In reality, the interest rate for a 30-year mortgage has averaged 6.7 percent since 1990.’
‘Of concern, 40 percent of homebuyers told Redfin they would be unable or unwilling to buy if mortgage rates rise further — a likely event.’
And:
‘now buyers have a one-two punch to deal with: rising prices and interest rates. And then FHA comes along and lowers the limits. Go figure. Fully one third of all home purchases in this country are funded with an FHA loan.’
Buyers have a bigger problem than a punch. There’s that bus they’ve been thrown under by the government and the Federal Reserve.
Even though I think they could reverse it pretty easily, I sorta just feel that they won’t. They went to all that trouble of calculating out what each region should be and setting the wheels in motion in each area. I think there must have been many bureaucrats devoted to implementing the change lower.
On the other hand, betting against the REIC cartel isn’t the best bet in my experience. It’s like that old expression, Don’t Fight the Fed.
Don’t Fight the Fed
Thus, keep your money in your wallet.
“Fully one third of all home purchases in this country are funded with an FHA loan.”
!
This made me wonder, is this somehow part of a scheme to drive more of the loans to the other non FHA entities that guarantee loans (Fannie? Freddie?). Can someone see a reason for this?
“Can someone see a reason for this?”
My take is that 1/3 of home buyers are living mo-to-mo, and can’t afford a real down payment.
If with 20%, they’re financing for 15-30 years…. remember;
… if you have to finance it for 15 to 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.
Pretty scary, isn’t it, Muggy?
No.
Scary is the DHS and local para-police force smashing through your front door at 2am.
Realtor Charged With Harrassment
http://articles.philly.com/2013-12-18/news/45298809_1_neighbor-the-straubs-dead-snake
Realtor Charged In Scam
http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20120413/manhattan/wealthy-realtor-charged-scamming-subsidized-lower-east-side-apartment
Because I see things differently.
At a recent meeting with the realtor licensing bureau of a western state, everyone there rolled there eyes when I said the new rules about home loans were to protect banks from squatting fraud homebuyers, and that once the holes were filled, the final step might be debtors prison.
So…If you walk away from a house…and now the unmet portion of the debt is counted as unearned income…and you don’t pay taxes on that…I’m guessing you get a chance at federal prison…and maybe your family can’t collect welfare until the debt is paid ( I think child support works that way in some states) and your 401k will be tapped to pay off the tax debt….
We’re moving toward personal accountability…and banks are moving toward protection from the freesh!t army.
Next step; protect us from the freesh!t army by lowering awards.
Or did that already start?
The banks are part of the freesh!t army. They just focus on cash.
I agree, the banks are the largest freesh!t army in the world.
“too big to fail” ?
“Realtor Accused Of Scamming Clients Out Of Millions”
http://jobs.aol.com/videos/e/realtor-accused-of-scamming-clients-out-of-millions/517718081/
“Realtor accused of using client’s home for sexual escapades”
http://www.97xonline.com/news/news/national/realtor-accused-using-clients-home-sexual-escapade/ncSTy/
‘Under the new mortgage rules, the people who are most likely to get rejected for a loan are ones who live in states where housing prices are very high or where the bounce-back from the crash has been weakest. Also vulnerable are young people who are hoping to ‘grow into’ their mortgages by progressing in their careers and winning raises. It will be harder to squeeze into a home with an adjustable-rate loan because the rules require lenders to take into account how high the rate might get over the life of the loan, not just the teaser rate.’
‘CoreLogic calculates that 12.8 percent of new mortgages in 2012 didn’t meet the “qualified mortgage” standard.’
‘The rules are perhaps the largest issue on the real estate industry’s mind ahead of the new year. Charlotte-area real estate officials say one of their biggest worries is that the rules will make it harder for low-income and first-time homebuyers to get a mortgage, as well as those in rural areas.’
“This definitely affects the lower-income borrower, by far,” said Janet Gaglione, president of the Charlotte Regional Mortgage Lenders Association. “We’re going to have very strict guidelines. This law is trying to make every lender accountable for every unknown factor that could happen during the term of the loan.”
‘When it comes to some aspects of the rules, such as the 43 percent debt-to-income requirement, industry officials say they are unsure of the potential effects. “What if it’s very close to 43 percent?” Mahoney, of American Security Mortgage, said. “I think the lender’s going to be hard-pressed on how they’re going to do that loan.”
‘As banker Joseph Potwora points out in the main article, Dodd-Frank allows a delinquent borrower to sue a lender on grounds that the loan was unaffordable for that individual. However, under the Ability-to-Repay rule, a lender that made a loan that is a QM and not “higher-priced” has a safe harbor, legally. A QM that is higher-priced, as defined in the rules, has a “presumption of compliance” that is legally rebuttable by the debtor’s attorney. The only grounds they are supposed to be able to pursue are lending that leaves too little income to live on.’
‘The FHA loan limit reduction will affect home buyers in higher-end properties. For example, if you take Sonoma County, Calif., the maximum new FHA loan limit in January will be reduced to $520,950 from $662,500. Homebuyers who once could buy with less capital will now have to invest more cash into the deal or buy less house. If you’re looking to buy a house but haven’t yet, here’s what to expect in 2014.’
‘Lake County, Colo., has the honor of biggest loser. The rural Rocky Mountain county will see its maximum loan amount for mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration fall by nearly 63% next month after higher loan limits, enacted by Congress five years ago and extended repeatedly, expire on Dec. 31.’
‘Loan limits in Lake County, which is south of Vail and east of Aspen and has fewer than 10,000 residents, will fall to $271,050 from $729,750, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association.’
‘Other big losers include Utah’s Tooele and Salt Lake Counties, where loan limits will drop by 59%, to $300,150 from $729,750. Limits will fall by 49% in Virginia’s Cumberland, Louisa, and King and Queen Counties to $271,050 from $535,900.’
‘Metro areas with big drops include Stockton, Calif., where loan limits will drop to $304,750 from $488,750, and Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif., where loan limits fall to $355,350 from $500,000.’
‘I guess it’s just the American way. Always have your hand out for the next government subsidy and the politicians in Washington are always too willing to cooperate in response to powerful lobbying organizations. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is no exception when it comes to begging for government housing market subsidies.’
‘Recently the NAR has had their underwear in a knot over two issues that they believe affects their livelihood.’
‘First the NAR issued a Call To Action for their members regarding the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act, which seeks to delay implementation of rate increases for the national flood insurance program (a government run program).’
‘As with most government programs that subsidize anything the FHA has been losing money lately. In fact, for the first time ever it had to ask the Treasury for $1.7 B to support them. And since the housing recovery is well on its way the FHA is in a position to try to scale back their operations and recover some of their losses. So they are raising their insurance rates (the homebuyer pays this) and lowering their loan limits again effective January 1.’
‘No surprise the NAR is troubled by these actions so they joined with a special interest coalition in sending a letter to the FHA “urging them to reconsider these changes and asking for more transparency in the process of determining the limits”. The letter includes the usual appeals about the American dream of homeownership and the fragility of the economic recovery.’
Well…. By now it shouldn’t be any mystery as to why NAR bribes elected officials.
‘Under the new mortgage rules, the people who are most likely to get rejected for a loan are ones who live in states where housing prices are very high…’
No more massive federally-subsidized loans to Californians?
In the article it stupidly states that the 43% ratio is a burden to people “known as good” by the local bank.
Local bank can still do the loan, but they are on the hook if the borrower sues them.
I think this is precisely “put your money where your mouth is”.
If.the local bank truly trusts the local risk, all they have to do is shut_the_hell_up and do the loan.
Exactly.
“The deflationary spiral rages on…… whatever you do, stay out of debt and hold onto your cash.”
You better believe it mister.
My SIL’s ex told me he got a federal tax writeoff on debt forgiveness on the $550K morgage he could no longer pay to hold onto the McMansion he and my SIL no longer share. He further opined the tax-free debt forgiveness provision would be serially renewed into the indefnite future, though Ben’s post above suggests otherwise.
What gives?
Maybe they’re figuring that they let enough money into the economy, and now it’s time to reel it back in.
It’s possible…
A gridlocked congress is a good thing.
Kelly Phillips Erb, Contributor
I cover tax: paying tax is painful but reading about it shouldn’t be.
Taxes | 12/27/2013 @ 12:08PM |1,029 views
Tax Break Ending For Underwater Homeowners: Is It The Right Time?
Here’s a startling statistic: the number of homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth is greater than the number of residents in most states.
According to the latest report from Zillow, nearly 11 million homeowners have negative equity in their homes, or are considered underwater. That’s more than the population of 43 of our states: only California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio can boast census numbers larger than that figure. The rate works out to about in five homeowners with a mortgage (if you add in those homeowners with 20% or less equity in their homes, called the “effective” negative equity rate, that number doubles to two in five homeowners). By the dollars, homeowners in the U.S. were underwater by $805 billion as of the end of third quarter of 2013.
The good news is that number is shrinking. Last year at this time, nearly one in three homeowners with a mortgage were underwater. The dip seems to indicate that the housing market is continuing to recover – or correcting, depending on who you ask – from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.
That crisis, which either contributed to or resulted from the 2007 recession (again, depending on who you ask), burst the housing bubble, sending many homeowners scrambling to unload properties. With a glut of overpriced homes on the market, real estate was slow to move, making sales difficult and often painful for homeowners. Sometimes, the result was renegotiated mortgage or a short sale. Other times, homeowners simply walked away with no home but also no debt. Only there was a bit of a catch. For federal income tax purposes, once a lender writes off any part of your debt – even a mortgage – that amount which is forgiven is reported to the Internal Revenue Service on a form 1099-C. That amount may be includable as income. The result? No money. Possibly no home. And potentially serious tax debt.
To try and stop the bleeding, Congress passed the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act in 2007. The Act, which offered an exception to the debt as taxable income rule for qualifying homeowners, was signed into law by President George W. Bush at the year end. It was intended to be retroactive, beginning with January 1, 2007, and applied to mortgages discharged through December 31, 2009. But recovery didn’t come quickly enough so the Act was extended in 2008 for another three years, through December 31, 2012. And when recovery still didn’t come quickly enough, the Act was extended through December 31, 2013.
The exception has now been law for seven full calendar years. It’s set to expire in four days unless Congress grants yet another extension. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened.
There are, however, three bills in Congress right now that would extend the Act yet again. The Senate’s version of the bill, S. 1187, sponsored by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) would add another band-aid to the wound, extending relief one more year. That bill has been referred to the Committee on Finance, where it has remained since June 19, 2013. Both House versions of the bill would also extend the Act for one more year. Similarly, both versions remain in committee.
The question of what to do with the Act is not easily addressed.
…
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5522-Eastbourne-Dr-Springfield-VA-22151/51905200_zpid/
S of dc 80% gov workers
Party over?
Still too close to it’s 2005 sales price, but it’s getting better with every price change.
Typical NoVa crapshack.50 Year old house with a mildewed basement and in serious need of an HGTV sized re-do. That’s the reason I didn’t take a job in NoVa when I left Cyprus. I refused to pay that kind of money for one of these over priced Brady Bunch wanna’ be homes.
Reading between the lines.
‘The final report for 2013 from Freddie Mac on mortgage interest rates indicated that rates, while still historically low, have moved higher throughout the year and, for some analysts and economists, are reason for concern in the new year.’
‘Mike Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said following the Fed decision, “Mortgage application volume dropped with rates increasing and refinance application volume falling to its lowest level since November 2008. Purchase application volume was weak, too, continuing to run more than 10 percent below last year’s pace.”
‘Statewide, homebuyers needed an annual income of $89,170 in the third quarter of 2013 to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced home of $433,940. CAR says 32 percent of households had sufficient income to qualify, down from 49 percent from a same quarter a year earlier.’
‘In San Diego County, only 27 percent of households have enough income — $99,670 — to afford to buy the median-priced home of $485,040.’
“Buyers are playing the waiting game and putting their home search on hold until prices stabilize and more inventory becomes available in the market,” said Kevin Brown, president of CAR.’
Hold on there Kevin. If “buyers” were content or qualified at current prices, why would they wait? If they had any inkling that prices were going up, they’d buy this afternoon, to lock in that great low rate and the Monday price surge.
On the other hand, if buyers can’t qualify, or have an idea prices were going to fall, they may possibly play a waiting game. You guys don’t have a monopoly on data anymore, and we can all see how long houses sit on the market or have prices reduced.
Anyway, why do you need these little people with their tiny down payments? Aren’t there crowds of wall street guys with wads of money waiting in your driveway every morning?
You CAR clowns helped run this thing up, and now you’re looking around hoping regular families will pay through the nose for 30 years for some old shack. You deserve the dry spell you are entering.
‘In San Diego County, only 27 percent of households have enough income — $99,670 — to afford to buy the median-priced home of $485,040.
This frankly shocks me! Three quarters of households in SD can’t afford the median priced home even under this crazy 5 to 1 price to income scheme. About a 100k for households in SD? Who can afford to live there?
“Who can afford to live there?”
1. The Romneys and other trust fund babies
2. All-cash Chinese and Canadian investors
3. CEOs and doctors
4. Professional athletes
5. Other?
I loved living in Rancho Penasquitos. The best weather of any place I’ve ever lived but c’mon, $550K for a outdated 3/2 near Black Mountain Road? Aya caramba!
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/reb/4215358549.html
‘the era of rapid growth is well behind us. In the 1980s, the population of Los Angeles grew by 18 percent; in the past decade, growth was only one-fifth as high. Growth in the core areas, including downtown, overall was barely 0.7 percent, while the population continued to expand more rapidly on the city’s periphery. Overall, the city of Los Angeles grew during the past decade at one-third the national rate. This stems both from sustained domestic outmigration losses of 1.1 million in Los Angeles County and immigration rates that have fallen from roughly 70,000 annually in the previous decade to 40,000 a year at present.’
‘Nor can L.A. expect much of a huge infusion of the urban young talent, a cohort said to prefer high-density locales. In a recent study of demographic trends since 2007, L.A. ranked 31st as a place for people aged 20-34, behind such hot spots as Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and Philadelphia. It does even worse, 47th among metro areas, with people ages 35-49, the group with the highest earnings.’
‘In reality, there is no crying need for more ultradense luxury housing – what this area needs more is housing for its huge poor and working-class populations. More important, we should look, instead, at why our demographics are sagging so badly. The answer here, to borrow the famous Clinton campaign slogan: It’s the economy, stupid. In contrast with areas like Houston, where dense development is flourishing along with that on the city’s periphery, Southern California consistently lands near the bottom of the list for GDP, income and job growth, barely above places like Detroit, Cleveland or, for that matter, Las Vegas.’
‘Despite many assertions to the contrary, densification alone does not solve these fundamental problems. The heavily subsidized resurgence of downtown Los Angeles, for example, has hardly stemmed the region’s relative decline.’
‘Instead of pushing dense housing as an economic panacea, perhaps Mayor Garcetti should focus on why the regional economy is steadily falling so far behind other parts of the nation. One place to start that examination would be with removing the regulatory restraints that chase potential jobs and businesses – particularly better-paying, middle class ones – out of the region. It should also reconsider how the “smart growth” planning policies have helped increase the price of housing, particularly for single-family homes, preferred by most families.’
My how the mighty have fallen.
‘behind such hot spots as Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and Philadelphia…near the bottom of the list for GDP, income and job growth, barely above places like Detroit, Cleveland or, for that matter, Las Vegas’
“behind such hot spots as Milwaukee”
Are there any other indications of parody? Long holiday and sleepy right now, so you can see my confusion.
I’ve never lived more than 30 miles from Milwaukee so I think I speak authoritatively here that with the exception of university dorms and water street there is zero appeal in Milwaukee. Now the suburbs do have jobs, so…
Milwaukee was just on Forbes magazine “20 most awful cities to live in” list.
LA is one of the few major U.S. cities that grew since 1950. Many of the leading cities by 1950 population have seen massive outflows of their populations (aka tax bases) in the ensuing 63 years.
“Unlikely. unwilling to buy if rates raise?” When rates raise to 5 to 5%, you will have created a near normal market.
Who gets hurt investors, ( yeah like we want investors in the neighborhood) and folks who can’t really afford a mortgage.
The economy will improve slowly, rates will go up slowly, housing will go up slowly, jobs improve slowly, and this is all good folks. A bubble at any level is crazy buying and selling at unrealistic pricing and lending, a belief that anything easy is better, it isn’t.
Americans are a impatient group, “nothing comes of good in life if it comes to fast.” This was the roaring 20’s problem and recent recession, fast times and easy money leads to happiness and early retirement, it doesn’t work that way in a capitalist society.
And remember….
A housing recovery is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
Housing has a whole lot of recovering to do.
‘Americans are a impatient group’
Wages have been flat to down for 30 years. What is it we are waiting for again? I’ve forgotten, it’s been so long.
‘A bubble at any level is crazy buying and selling at unrealistic pricing and lending’
If you don’t see that this is what’s going on today, I’ll stay in the opposite camp and we’ll see who’s right in the not too distant future.
One of the most amusing memes I see nowadays is to attribute any improvement in the standard of living to the financial sector, instead of the medical, engineering or other technological sector which actually creates the improvement.
The financial-political sector is highly parasitic, pushing up prices via debt and targeted inflation, and taking a cut of those transactions.
The financial sector could not get this stuff done without purchasing politicians. It really is a deeply linked symbiotic relationship.
And politicians more than willingly offer their services for sale. If you contribute, they’ll help you out. If you don’t, you’ll get shaken down.
So… the word sellers knows the word “immigration”, but must use “out-migration” instead of “emigration”; because word seller is stupid or.his.audience is.suspected of stupidity?
I’ve seen perhaps six variations of.out-migration lately.
Is emigration the incorrect word?
Innigration and outigration?
“Out-migration” is the term used to describe the direction of movement, as it pertains to the US Census Bureau’s “net internal migration” statistic. The root phrase is “net internal migration”. The Census Bureau denotes direction of migration with a null set (the default designation for ‘inflow’) and a minus (affirmative designation for ‘outflow’). “Out-migration” and “In-migration” are qualifiers used by us, the great unwashed.
FPSS would have a more elegant explanation.
Younger demographic having an impact on Ventura County housing market
The message driven home Thursday by a mix of academic, government and industry experts at the annual Ventura County Housing Conference was: Everything Americans once assumed about housing has been upended.
http://m.vcstar.com/news/2013/sep/12/thursday-morning-housing-conference-covers-market/
As I predicted seven years before. I believe the bottom of the housing bubble hit in Summer of 2012, but with a rising interest rate environment we may see a housing bottom coming real soon. The lows of 2012 may be tested soon. Comments.