‘Taking The Other Side’ Of The Rent Or Buy Trade
The Union Tribune has a look at rent costs in San Diego. “The cost of renting a place to live in San Diego County has increased by nearly 10 percent over the past year, according to a report to be released today by the San Diego County Apartment Association. The poll differed sharply from recent surveys by real estate research firms RealFacts and MarketPointe Realty Advisors. Their reports found that rents in the county had been flat for the past year.”
“The conversion of thousands of apartments to condominiums in recent years is driving rent increases, said Richard Lawrence, chairman of the Affordable Housing Coalition of San Diego County. New construction is not replacing rental units lost to conversions, he said, adding, ‘That is the most significant factor.’”
“‘I think we will have people bunching up in the rental market until single-family homes and condo prices drop,’ Robert Pinnegar, director of the association said. ‘The interest rates are going up. Home prices are going to have to come down. Something has to give here.’”
“‘Folks with kids who hope to be homeowners one day are leaving the area,’ said Sue Reynolds, president of a lender and developer of affordable rental properties.”
A member of the PIMCO team put this out today. “Three weeks ago my wife and I sold our house and moved into a rental apartment. I believe the U.S. housing market is set to cool given the current level of prices and fundamental trends.”
“Recent price gains have likely come primarily from rising speculation and ‘creative financing’ because affordability is declining and inventories are rising. When asset prices diverge from fundamentals, I favor taking the other side of the trade, even if it involves moving.”
“The main forces driving housing price appreciation in the past are now softening. Declining affordability, resulting from rising prices and interest rates, has become a significant headwind facing new buyers. Despite the persistence of creative mortgage financing, prices have now risen to a point where demand is slowing.”
“Federal regulators are beginning to crack down on risky lending practices. Speculators are shifting from buyers to sellers. Mortgage application growth is slowing. Finally, and most importantly, the supply and demand imbalance in the housing market is turning sharply for the worse as inventories soar.”
“Land acquisitions made by homebuilders over the past few years will not help the current situation. Such purchases are made with the intent of development after a time lag. Therefore, over the next few years, homebuilders will either flood the market with additional inventory or be forced to write-down the value of their undeveloped land on their balance sheets.”
“If homebuilders continue to build, new home prices are likely to fall. While good news for potential buyers, it is an unwelcome transformation for would-be sellers, who are probably approaching the point where it is too late to sell.”
“Investors in homebuilder companies should pay close attention to liquidity. Real estate is about to become less liquid as turnover volumes soften. Sellers needing cash will likely be hitting bids below the market as buyers turn more cautious. In addition, financing for both homebuilders and homebuyers will become tighter. The period of ‘cheap money’ is over.”
“I am not suggesting that everyone should sell their house and move into an apartment. However, for the reasons discussed above, housing should not be a source of economic stimulus going forward. Watch the ‘for sale’ signs, in both the housing and corporate bond market, my sense is more of both are coming as the market transitions from a mode of risk taking to that of risk aversion.”
The period of ‘cheap money’ is over
Money is NEVER cheap - it only appeared that way because of all of the stupid sheople and speculators…
“The period of ‘cheap money’ is over”
Good. I don’t need to buy anything on credit and have cash I want earning a decent yeild.
Au contraire. When irresponsible Republicrat politicos run up insane budget deficits year after year, while the Fed cranks up the printing presses until the M3 (money) supply soars into the stratosphere, the net result is indeed “cheap money.” However, it is increasingly being recognized as such by the bagholders (i.e. China and Japan) who will one day tire of accepting printing press dollars, backed by nothing, for their tangible goods and services.
I think there’s an outside chance that when the Fed gets together on June 29th to decide on the next interest-rate hike, Baranke will attempt to shed his “Helicopter Ben” moniker (and attempt to defend the dollar) by opting for a full 1/2 point (50 basis points) interest rate hike. If you think the FBs are suffering now, wait until interest rates start catching up with the REAL inflation rate (not the faked Fed “hedonic” CPI).
Sammy
How many threads are you going to post this on? We get your point.
Works for me.
The U-T story, in the hardcopy, was accompanied by a table which showed that rents are down from FAll 2005!!!
Rents went up from Spring 2005 to Fall 2005, and have been falling since.
One more of those year-over-year data point problems, which doesn’t show the downtrend until it exceeds the uptrend before it.
PIMCO has a lot of credibility, IMO. Party’s over folks.
Yep. Bill Gross has been talking about a housing bubble since at least 2004. IMO, these guys know what they’re doing.
Wow, take a close look at Chart 5 in the Pimco piece. Also Chart 6. Things are loking pretty grim: Real GDP and Consumer Spending look like Wile E. Coyote churning his feet in the air six feet past the cliff edge.
“Real GDP and Consumer Spending look like Wile E. Coyote churning his feet in the air six feet past the cliff edge.”
Great visual. You forget the 50 pound anvils that are going to hammer Wile E Coyote on the way down. One is called rising interest rates and other is unemployment.
“The conversion of thousands of apartments to condominiums in recent years is driving rent increases, said Richard Lawrence, chairman of the Affordable Housing Coalition of San Diego County. New construction is not replacing rental units lost to conversions, he said, adding, ‘That is the most significant factor.’”
Interesting how this one study diverged so dramatically from the other two (which showed flat rents). Even if this one turns out to closer to the actual trendline, I have to wonder how many of these apartment-condo conversions will end up being converted right back to rentals in the months/years to come.
Naturally, FBs are “demanding” high rents in an attempt to cover their underwater asses. Unfortunately for them, what they actually get is determined by what the market will bear, which itself depends in large part on what renters can afford to pay. Too bad there are no 50-year neg-am loans or HELOCs for renters. They have to pay the rent with actual EARNED MONEY (*gasp*).
The horror… the horror…
LOL! Too true.
In my area, rents have definietely gone up (San Diego), but I anticipate they will go down as we move past this stare-down period. Lots and lots of crappy condo conversions around here. They’ve certainly decreased the number of available rental units.
Rents went up $101 dollars to $1147 from $1046. Oh my God!!! What will do???
Well Martha, I guess we better go out and buy a house with 0 Down and I/O it for 5 years for only umm like $2500 per month given a $550K median price. That sounds like the wise move given this new data set. What in the Funk were we thinking saving all this money vs. buying.
They want renters to believe that their rent is going to go up 10% every year. IMO the Union Tribune is worthless, I have to admit that Iread their sports page though. Their bias for the local teams are fine with me.
Keep in mind, EVERYTHING is going up, except maybe for wages. It’s called inflation, which according to the (faked) CPI is running at about 4%, but in the world that you and I actually inhabit, it’s running closer to 10%. As such, a 10% “rise” in rents is merely staying even, adjusting for inflation, and doesn’t really represent a rise at all.
Actually, my lease didn’t budge last time we renewed. My wife and I both got our expected raises (3% and 8%), so I guess that we’re richer this year than last. Gas is not a significant factor in our monthly budget - in spite of 30 mile commutes each.
Another great piece of reporting by the UT. What they fail to mention is that the vacancy rate in San Diego was nearly 5% (last time I checked) and that some conversions are slashing prices while trying to get renters back into unsold units to slow their losses. UTC is probably the worst example of this at work. The other apartment complexes in the area have moved up rental prices in the area, just because they feel they see an opportunity. I know of several renters there who had their rents increased $200-300/mo before the conversions started trying to get renters in again.
slight OT, but the Dow Homebuilders swan dived today into territory first probed in early ‘04 when the index was on its way up. Remember that comment the other day about prices already needing to be set at ‘04 levels in order to move a house today? The homebuilder stocks are sure confirming that sentiment.
I like the charts:
Philidelphia Housing Index
SPDR Homebuilder’s Index
and yet the REITs are up
The key term here is “risk.” Just ask any “Flipper” if they think there’s going to be appreciation in California. The speculators have lost their confidence. Economic fundamentals will now come into play.
Maybe on fundamentals, but the good ol’ psychology effect is still my numero uno.
“If homebuilders continue to build, new home prices are likely to fall. While good news for potential buyers, it is an unwelcome transformation for would-be sellers, who are probably approaching the point where it is too late to sell.”
It’s becoming clear to the masses that this isn’t turning around any time soon. The markets should freeze soon, we may just see some panicked selling. I’m so glad I don’t have a mountain of debt right now.
Sorry to recycle my earlier post, but it pertains to the SD rental article which is the subject of this thread:
You can’t see the sidebar table in the online version of the story which accompanies the print edition version of this article, but as usual, the story zeros in on the YOY figures, deliberately ignoring more current evidence. The table confirms that, at least for however they compiled their averages, while the YOY rents are up, the rental rates actually fell from Fall 2005 to Spring 2006 for each category of housing discussed (studio / one BR / two BRs / three or more BRs).
This article seems to reflect the SD Union Tribunes heavy reliance on real estate advertising (I pitch about five pounds worth of housing listings with each weekend edition of the paper); the intended message seems to be “buy now, or watch your rents go up by 10% a year forever.”
I believe the table is consistent with a different version of the story than the article promotes. It looks like rents went up with the final blowout in SD purchase prices late last year, and now that the market is tanking (50% increase in used home for-sale inventory since Jan 1, 2006), rents are softening along with the supply glut in the owner-occupied market. My version is conjectural at this point, but the fact that rents have declined, not risen, since Fall 2005 suggests that prospective buyers should bide their time, as rents are going down, not up.
OK, SD people, who’s telling the truth? Have rents gone up 10% in a year, or are they flat? You folks are the ones actually paying or charging the rent, so come clean.
From what I’ve seen people post it seems closer to zero than 10%.
I posted this above, but in my ‘hood (Carlsbad, CA) rents are decidedly up. I do think this is a temporary situation as homes are being held empty in hopes of getting unrealistic sales or rent prices. Once the sellers/new LLs discover they will not be able to charge what they want, the overall rental rates will fall with prices (I hope).
I tried to talk my DH into a long (3-5 year) lease agreement when the rental mkt was soft in 2004. Like others here, my spouse wasn’t going for it and didn’t even want to wait 6 months before buying. Our loss, IMHO, as I had hoped to lock in our rent for a number of years. Now, we are at the mercy of our LL.
I would not worry if I were you, there are plenty of places to rent. The only reason we are seeing a rise in rent, is because of rent speculation. LL’s are seeing adds in the paper or craigslist that show that similar properties are trying to be rented out for a higher price. So that LL in turn raises the rent. The supply though seems to be rising. Once the speculation ceases, it will return to a traditional supply and demand model.
I remember a story out of silicon valley where a guy sold his house to a speculator with the agreement the the buyer would let him be the tenant as his property “apprciated”. The seller knocked 2 years of rent off the selling price and got the best of both worlds. A high selling price and a low rent and didn’t have to move.
…and didn’t have to move.
Yet.
Still, pretty good job.
“…according to a report to be released today by the San Diego County Apartment Association.”
Are they talking about HOUSES or APTS? My apartment rent did not increase. Not by single freakin’ dollar.
(Rancho Bernardo)
I’m also in Rancho Bernardo and my apartment rent has increase almost 10% this year (after virtually no increase the previous year).
Depends on where you are looking to rent. Apartment complexes always seem to try to nudge the rent up higher than a rental house. House rental prices seem to be steady from what I have seen, as more rentals are popping up. I left an apartment complex that wanted to charge me over $200/mo. more with claims of a tight rental market. I told them to take a hike and it took them 3 months to rent my apartment again. Somehow, their shortage doesn’t seem based in reality.
>Apartment complexes always seem to try to nudge the rent up higher than a rental house.
Yep, that’s exactly the playbook they use. Pre-programmed increase if you stay. That’s why I like to go with a small landlord that I’ve “screened”. Pay in advance and not late, and they think you’re golden. The complexes think of you as nothing but a number. As a matter of fact, I tried to pay a year’s rent in advance on a place in Chicago, and they said they couldn’t take it - their systems wouldn’t handle it. Show me a small landlord that wouldn’t jump at that offer.
No increase whatsoever. Look at who is reporting the “news”. I sold
2 years ago this month after owning for 8 and figure my rent from the
early 90’s to now has only gone up about 3%/year, and completely
flat the past several years.
I’ve said this many times on this blog, rents will go down with prices.
Why? Supply. We never had a lack of supply (I speak mostly of SD)
and easy money beget speculation and false demand. Much supply
was added even in the face of a declining population in the past 5
years and the bottom line is rents and prices are coming down.
Look at who is pushing the information… an association devoted to owners and managers of apartment buildings and complexes! Who are they serving by pubishng that information? Themselves. Therefore, I am skeptical of their information.
One thing not covered in the article is the change in rental cost for typical apartments… like 2bdrm 2 baths. I believe the other groups reporting rental costs speak to those things.
I also wonder if their membership make-up changed over the past year? Could there be a bunch of new managers/owners from newly constructed complexes (which cost more) responding to their poll? The article states that small complexes and single-family homes are included, whereas other groups poll larger (or 25+ unit) complexes.
So, to answer the question… I moved out of my last apartment in Little Italy b/c the rent was higher than what I wanted to pay. I kept track of that complex since leaving and noticed that rents appear stable.. or slightly lower. My rent there was $1465. It seems it’s now closer to $1400 today, 6 months later.
My rent today is $1150/month and my landlord told me in conversation he doesn’t have any plans to raise the rent, they’ve been that high for a while, and it seems to him he’s having fewer inquieries into the complex. Hypothetically, perhaps relying on roadside signs alone is not enough since more and more people are using craigslist???
Anyway, I feel rents are declining.
It’s pretty much like Getstucco said, it depends on point you measure the increase. Rents probably did go up last fall. I moved from an apartment where rent went up more than that into a house twice the sq ft for a few hundred more per month. Good trade off. I don’t know what’s been happening since. I’ve locked in my lease for another 18 mos.
We renewed our lease this past January for another year at the same rate we originally rented for back in December 2004. Of course, our landlord now has the advantage of knowing that we pay our bills on time, and one observation does not constitute a statistically reliable sample. Nonetheless, I don’t put any faith in the Tribune’s simple-minded analysis of data from three points in time, especially when their discussion conveniently ignored the decline in rents from Fall 2005 to Spring 2006.
The rents in my market (Southeastern Virginia) got a bit wierd. Basically, you have all your new investors with their new purchases on the market looking to cover their costs. I think some of them were able to do so, thanks to new people coming into the area unfamiliar with the past (or perhaps short term memory). Then all of the other people see the current for-rent price listings and feel like they are missing out.
I do notice the higher price places not moving at all. I see recent condos where the owner would ask $400k to sell offered as rentals for $1600/month, and not getting takers. The salaries just aren’t here.
Homeowners can fake wealth quite a bit easier than renters.
“Homeowners can fake wealth quite a bit easier than renters”.
How right you are!
The dark side of the conumdrum. Flat or falling housing prices (at the mercy of interest rates) causing elevated rents and their subsequent impact on the core inflation rate leading to higher interest rates and flatter or felled housing prices. Tough one.
The FED has only themselves to blame for keeping rates WAY to LOW for WAY to LONG.
too
A Bubble in Real Estate Agents ?
http://tinyurl.com/rahwo
In Palo Alto, my rent just went up about 8%. Last year it was a 9% hike. I started renting in spring of 2004, and that rent was about 20% cheaper than the previous bubble-era tenant paid. With these two hikes, we are still a bit cheaper than the last bubble peak, but we are getting close.
In San Mateo, I just rolled over my rent for the same price as last year. The owner had a spell of 4 months without a tenant lat time he switched the unit and obviously doesn’t want to go through that again. Also, I pay him two or three months at a time
I just rented a nice, big house place on a 2 year lease for 50% of PITI equivalent.
glorgau, That’s what I do even tho it’s not required by the lease. They get addicted to it.
Wouldn’t it be funny if the speculators buying the condos drove the cost of rent up ? Rent is part of core CPI and today Bernanke told us he is watching it. So Bernanke is going to hike until rents come back down. That means he will start to TARGET the housing bubble itself.
I thought about that today, too. I even posted that same thought about a month ago. Conversions in Florida haven’t always been succesful, and often seem to revert back to rentals. No talk of that yet on the West Coast.
The great study will be, like SFHs, will there be GFRs (Greater F’d Renters) that will pay the increase, or will they search for any and all available substitutes.
Just because a greedy owner has to have 1/3 to 1/2 his “nut” just to not feel like a loser (how pitiful, but appreciation will certainly ensure his/her retirement) may not mean he/she will be able to get it, despite the huge wage increase we are experiencing lately.
But if it happened, it would be a meaningful raise in the Social Security payment for my 86-year-old mother!
As mentioned this morning, we looked at going back to San Diego and renting something but were totally put off by the outrageous amounts being asked for rent. $3500 for some shitbox in Rancho Penasquitos or Carlsbad. LaJolla - let’s not even go there. $2800 for a tiny crackerbox like the one I had in OB. People are truly insane out there.
You were too early - you have to wait for the weak hands to fold before the rental prices come down significantly.
I agree with you 99.98%. The last 2/100ths are reserved for the weather, chick. Come on, YOU know we fluctuate between 66 (Jan/Feb) and 78 (Summer) degrees. Not too many places can boast a 12 degree average seasonal swing - my t-shirts & shorts work just fine all year. How long till Texas dips below 90? What, October?
That being said, my place outside of Tokyo (2br apt) rented for 60,000 yen a month - about $535 bucks U.S.
Does anyone think it was that cheap during their nasty years? San Diego is insane, yes - but I suspect rents will not remain so crazy in the medium-to-long run.
The rental signs have FLOURISHED here in San Diego in the last two month. A nice 2/2 in my area (North Park) looks to be about $2K a month. The clueless landlords don’t have long. La Boheme (240 unit condo complex) will be completed this coming fall, for the coming fall. Haha.
I live in San Diego and know some renters at work from different areas. It appears we have different situations in different areas. I live at the beach in Pacific Beach which has always been a rental community. Things appear to be regular order with rentals and vacancies , I expect a possible rent increase of 5% this year. It appears that the single family homes in the desirable neighborhoods seem to be sweeped up. There aren’t as many of those on the market for the time being. I don’t know when they start counting rental vacancies downtown, but there is a HUGE tower that is all rentals that opened downtown this year…15% of the towers have lights on at night and astonishingly enough the traffic patterns downtown have not changed one bit. 15,000 new condos…chirp…chirp…chirp. I think they will get bought up and converted to hotels at some point. The BOSA properties are really nice!
After 20 years of being a homeowner, I’ve now made the jump to a home renter after selling my last house (my own)
The UT article does not surprise me. For the last 6 months I’ve been looking for a house to rent in Davis, CA. For those that do not know, Davis is a suburb of Sacramento and a nice little college town of about 60,000 people. Home prices are about 25% higher than Sac, and are approaching Bay Area prices. This is mostly due to the fact that the City and the residents pretty much do not allow the building of houses, so supply is low. Demand is also very hight due to Davis having the #2 ranked school district in CA.
Alas, the bubble is bursting in Davis too, but not near as bad as Sacto for the fact there was little speculative buying. They’ll catch up next year i’m sure.
I had a HELLUVA time finding a house to rent. People were rude over the phone, wanted to know my life story when all I wanted was the address. I finnaly found a newer 3-3 for $2300. The same house to buy would be $700K.
Yes rents are on the rise, and I predicted it last year. 10% sounds about right. There are many people doing what I’m doing and the rental demand is up.
Rents have been rising here (San Luis Obispo) more or less with inflation. Last year they were stangnant, but this year they seem to be up again. I, too, have been noticing quite a bit of variation in asking price, including some properties that seem WAY above market (e.g. $4000 for 4BR in San Luis when 2200-2300 is going rate). Now that we have Zillow, I have been checking up on sales, and I have to say, not all the super-high rents are being asked by recent buyers, so I do think it is hopeful landlords testing the water. Unfortunately for local landlords, CalPoly is building the largest on-campus student housing complex in the country. The school does plan to increase enrollment, but not immediately. Thus, the near-term future of owning rental housing in the area is not looking too rosy right now. Long-term, there are always renters in a college town, of course, but some recent investors are going to be squirming for a while.
I just took a look at craigslist for rental property in Las Vegas.
http://lasvegas.craigslist.org/apa/168345682.html
This place, $1325/mo is in a nicer nieghborhood than the one I’m renting now for $1300. It sold for $152.5k in 2003.
If I had time, I’d look at more of these.
MjM
Looked up rental listing on Zillow . 300k neighorhood ,around 1500 sq.ft .Looks like there is a school next to it .It doesn’t look to bad to me . At least the landlord won’t be in trouble if they bought for 152K in 2003 . I wonder if a Dentist owns it because of the teeth job kickback ,( did I read that right ?).I like the fact that it’s gated .
“‘Folks with kids who hope to be homeowners one day are leaving the area,’ said Sue Reynolds, president of a lender and developer of affordable rental properties.”
Who in SoCal with kids ISN’T mulling over leaving the area. I know we do from time to time. No amount of justification in my mind will ever convince me to spend half a million dollars on a shack in a bad neighborhood. Such is this current bubble: even the so-called “undesireable” places such as Barstow are out of range price-wise for the average family (no offense to Barstowians). Sadly, where is there left to go that the vipers haven’t run up? That’s why we daily await the popping of this bubble
I second that Jason. My kid needs a place to walk and ride to school safely. No amount of potential profit is worth putting my kid at risk. A house is not a financial instrument to me. It is a place to make a home that is part of a community. It is not a cog in an investment farm. And I will not buy at these prices, nor will I use voodoo financing. I will leave and take my meager 6 figure taxable salary out of CA.
I second (or third) that, Jason. We have been actively discussing leaving So Cal, and we’re both natives. We love our home state, but will not destroy our financial futures or childrens’ safety to stay here.
Take it from someone who left CA so my kids could play freely in a nice family-oriented subdivision, BEST thing that ever happened in my life. Bought a nice house for under $200K and my kids play outside for hours, no worries. I visit my brother in SD recently, houses in his subdivision are 600-800K, he said he wouldn’t DREAM of letting his kids play outside unattended due to all the freaks. What good is the year ’round spring weather if your kids can’t even go outside?
I take reports of rent increases around the LA area with a grain of salt. Due to the high cost of land, most new apartments are “luxury units” that rent for much higher than average. That’s bound to skew numbers northward.
From the Chicago Tribune:
Equity Residential, Archstone-Smith Trust Co. and AvalonBay Communities Inc., the nation’s largest apartment owners by market value, are benefiting as the five-year housing boom ends.
Occupancies and rents are rising as people choose to live in apartments rather than buy single-family homes and condominiums. The companies, which own a combined 323,753 units, had been hurt by a surge in home sales driven by mortgage rates that reached a four-decade low in 2003.
“Rental rates have been rising at a faster rate each quarter,” said Louis Taylor, a Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. analyst who covers real estate investment trusts. “Any slowing pace in the sale of single-family home sales just accelerates it.”
The softening home market already has begun to help apartment landlords. AvalonBay, based in Alexandria, Va., had a 6.5 percent increase in effective rental rates in the first quarter from a year earlier, while Equity Residential had a 6.1 percent gain.
Englewood, Colo.-based Archstone-Smith had a 9.1 percent increase, making it the second-best performer among apartment REITs, behind Houston-based Camden Property Trust, which had a 10.8 percent increase, according to Dallas-based research company Axiometrics Inc.
Over the five years ended in April, apartment REITs’ total returns underperformed most other REITs, including those focused on owning industrial properties, community shopping centers, regional malls, health-care properties and self-storage centers.
But that has changed this year, when apartment REITs have become the best-performing real estate sector.
“Everyone is saying apartments are doing so well because there’s some hesitancy now to buying a home,” said Abby McCarthy, senior director for industry information and statistics at the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. “As buying a home becomes more expensive, more people will opt toward renting instead of owning.”
There are risks for apartment companies, such as a rise in supply if some condominiums are converted back to apartments and a drop in demand if job growth stalls, analysts and investors said. A new pick-up in home sales also could hurt apartment landlords.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0606060170jun06,1,7210959.story
I don’t know about PIMCO having credibility…Bill Gross was so confident that the FED was going to cut interest rates by the end of 2005. People seem to forget his mistake…he couldn’t have been further from the truth.
This analyst from PIMCO now selling his house is also well behind the curve. The overheated markets in San Diego were already sputtering more than a year ago.
hello from germany
gross has been wrong on the fed since the end of 04.
his range for the 10 back than year was 3,5 to 4,5%.
There have been alot of people that were wrong about rates and this bubble. PIMCO still has one of the best long term track records in fixed income among it’s peer funds and some of the best fixed income and related institutional research teams in the country. I would not go against them on any trade or call.
JMF,
Exactly! People act as if Bill Gross is somehow superhuman. Face it, he has made several huge blunders. Back in June of last year he publicly stated, on several occasions, that the FED was going to cut rates by the end of 2005.
He later had a few hurricanes thrown in the mix to help him towards his prediction by depressing GDP…but the FED kept raising. Bill Gross and PIMCO are both way overrated!