Bits Bucket for January 2, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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There has never been a better time to live in the opposite end of the country from the Northeast. Good luck to all who face Hercules.
that’s sexis
Back in the day, hurricanes were routinely named after women. Not so much these days.
That’s because it takes longer than 15 years for a storm to become nubile nowadayz, because of global warming. So they can’t possibly be female.
A foot of snow is not a big deal here. It takes two or three feet to cause real problems.
The big issue with this storm is wind and cold.
WT….Curtis and Kuby are back on the air WABC AM 12-3 taking rush’s slot….
The fact that snow storms are named shows how wussified this country has become. A few inches of snow and you’d think WW3 just broke out.
“Simi Valley CA Housing Prices Fall 14% in 2013; Declines accelerating”
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/simi-valley.htm
The dollar stores have a good track record of picking ripe-for-the-picking markets. Hello, San Francisco!
As I’ve said here before, the rest of the country can no longer prop up coastal California.
LOL. Did you notice the median sq ft data? That’s down 20%. So lo and behold, price is down too. On a per sq ft basis, prices are actually up.
As a master of $55/sq ft building, you should understand how this works.
Got any tips for down hill skiing in Fl Slithers?
Here’s a great e-book on skiing moguls.
“Everything the Instructors Never Told You About Mogul Skiing”
$4 on amazon for the Kindle. Good stuff for the advanced skier looking for that little bit extra in the deep bumps. And he’s right, a lot of instructors have no clue how to teach mogul skiing.
How about some deep sea fishing in Montana.
On a per sq ft basis, prices are actually up.
Yep—scary but true:
Simi Valley Median $/sqft
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/simi-valley.htm#city=&time=5Y&metric=Median%20%24%2Fsqft&type=0
They only show 5yrs of history, but the 5yr chart shows it currently at peak for the last 5yrs—and up strongly recently.
….As a master of $55/sq ft building, you should understand how this works….”
+1……… except you are giving HA too much credit, Mr. Smithers. HA doesn’t understand how anything “works”. HA says houses “always depreciate…always”. Ha, ha, ha, ho, ho, ho.
Housing depreciates ALWAYS. It always has, always will.
Your land might appreciate due to the realtor-led propaganda and compliant herd, but your building depreciates.
Land is an extremely risky proposition if it’s priced much more than $500-$1,000 an acre. Highly speculative and volatile.
Why we no longer have incandescent light bulbs.
http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/181827/
Competitive markets with low costs of entry have a characteristic that consumers love and businesses lament: very low profit margins. GE, Philips and Sylvania dominated the U.S. market in incandescents, but they couldn’t convert that dominance into price hikes. Because of light bulb’s low material and manufacturing costs, any big climb in prices would have invited new competitors to undercut the giants — and that new competitor would probably have won a distribution deal with Wal-Mart.
So, simply the threat of competition kept profit margins low on the traditional light bulb — that’s the magic of capitalism. GE and Sylvania searched for higher profits by improving the bulb — think of the GE Soft White bulb. These companies, with their giant research budgets, made advances with halogen, LED and fluorescent technologies, and even high-efficiency incandescents. They sold these bulbs at a much higher prices — but they couldn’t get many customers to buy them for those high prices. That’s the hard part about capitalism — consumers, not manufacturers, get to demand what something is worth.
Capitalism ruining their party, the bulb-makers turned to government. Philips teamed up with NRDC. GE leaned on its huge lobbying army — the largest in the nation — and soon they were able to ban the low-profit-margin bulbs. . . .
Technologies often run the course from breakthrough innovation to obsolete. Think of the 8-track, the Model T or Kodachrome film. But the market didn’t kill the traditional light bulb. Government did it, at the request of big business.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/02/the_cfc_ban_global_warmings_pi.html
Tut tut.
And don’t fret all you sufferers of migraines….ObamaCare will cover your costs! Fear not mercury-filled fluorescent light bulbs!
Forward!
Brought to you by the NeoCon-Pogressive Party.
Oh, another thing…fear not if you are poisoned by mercury. ObamaCare will cover the cost of your poisoning.
Oops…forgot to says that it will once you meet the $5000 deductible.
Those of you in Kokomo making $600 monthly? We have sound advice: don’t break any light bulbs.
Not only will you not get sick, but you’ll be able to afford more of our $4 bulbs, and pay the costs of regulating the disposal of said bulbs down the road.
Still fearful? Clearly, you are psychotic. You need to learn to trust government.
Government regulation is good for you.
Yep, gov’t regulation, on behalf of the corps. Another name for fascism.
As always follow the money. It’s not a perfect rule, but it’s a pretty good rule of thumb pointing in the direction of the truth.
I stocked up on incandescents a while ago. I personally like the light quality better. I can also sell them in the future. Opening bid: $100 per bulb?
Did you try to call me a carrot the other day? It was, like, totally effective. I will never again disagree with a male (on the internet or otherwise), for fear of being called a carrot. Such injuries to my precious psycho princess heart can not be sustained! Besides, I’m scared because I didn’t get married when I was 15, so I might not have the option of ever catching a male, even though that same exact male is very unintelligent and probably incapable of even cleaning his own room.
Lettuce prey.
Except, we will still have incandescent bulbs…they will just be more efficient (fewer watts, same or greater lumens, more cost).
But the market didn’t kill the traditional light bulb. Government did it, at the request of big business.
It’s a crazy, upside-down world when you can buy pot legally, but not an incandescent light-bulb.
Great Point PIC! And idiots can make all the babies they want but need a license to drive. They should require a license to procreate!
They should require a license to procreate!
+infinity. You should have to demonstrate the ability to take care of yourself adequately, prior to being given another human being that requires care.
Greetings from Shanghai. All I could see so far in the dark evening drive from the airport to downtown is that about 25% of the towers along the main road from the airport were new and dark. And you would think it was foggy…except it’s not.
Wow, this will be exciting to have a fellow HHB’er in China. I look forward to your observations.
How does the air there compare with the Front Range brown cloud?
Our Beijing based colleagues say that the air in Denver is “unnaturally clean”.
I’ll know more when it gets light, but it appears to be in a different league. It was literally like driving on a misty morning.
So you’ve moved permanently-ish to Shanghai? Well, welcome to the new world! I’m interested to hear more about your new gig.
Not quite. Just working here for a month straight. First time in Asia so it’s all new and interesting to me. But I can’t imagine ever coming here for anything other than work. No FB, Twitter, Youtube. It’s all blocked. Everything but HBB…little do they know it’s the biggest threat of all :-P.
I want a cheap house.
Sit tight and keep your powder dry. You’re gonna get your wish.
get out of CA for starters. They are really restricting building here these days.
I think Muggy is in Florida. That is why he is “muggy”.
do you have any homes in granite bay? Seems like a nice area. I guess folsom lake is at record low levels.
No homes in Granite Bay. It is too high end. It does not make sense to buy rental property there, the rent will not cover the costs of ownership and provide a good ROI.
I have not seen Folsom Lake this year, but I did pass Shasta Lake this weekend and it looked very low. Pray for rain and snow. Mt. Shasta looked barren and is usually snow covered in December.
“I guess folsom lake is at record low levels.”
I posted an interesting climate story this weekend near the bottom of the bits bucket. Record drought situation.
There’s nothing to restrict considering there is no housing demand in CA.
HA
Not true. In east Ventura County (Amgen, Baxter, near other STEM careers), housing is in demand. The issue is price. Another 12 months we’ll check back. Maybe the sellers will get the hint. Inventory has grown, but STEM buyers aren’t dumb, and patience is their virtue.
oxide
ot, but I had no idea about this link:
cause of cancer is the replacement of the respiration of oxygen in normal body cells by a fermentation of sugar.
—Otto H. Warburg, [10]
that in 1930 a Nobel Prize went to Dr. Warburg for discovering the link of cancer to sugar.
And now here’s a Ph.D. that links childhood Epilepsy and a diet to stop the seizures, and how they stopped the seizure process in U.S. Navel Seals.
http://www.replaybd.com/2013/12/04/starving-cancer-dr-dominic-dagostino-at-tedxtampabay/
Really interesting stuff
Wrong again.
California Housing Demand Falls To 4-Year Low
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-home-value/r_9/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D14%26r%3D9%26el%3D0
And I want a Maserati for the price of a Civic.
And your maserati is worth the price of a civic. Just like your depreciating house.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2014-01-02 10:50:30
And I want a Maserati for the price of a Civic.
—————
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2014-01-02 11:21:01
And the fact you equate buying a car with investing in real estate further shows how little you understand about assets and investing.
The pat.net clowns are a hoot.
I predict that you, Muggy, will have your cheap house. I could have sworn that houses got cheap in Florida a couple years ago, but I still think the subsequent increases were a dead-cat bounce, so you will have a second chance.
Happy New Year everyone.
The beauty of the new year is that we can look back at where we have been and look forward to where we are going. In late 2007, I had been waiting to buy a new house for several years and prices had fallen about 25-30% in California. I was ready to jump into the market and buy houses. Below is the single most important post I ever read on the HBB, which counseled me to be patient (not my strongest virtue). I will share it with you now:
__________________________________
Comment by Inspired
2007-05-09 22:11:42
Good luck Jingle.
Signs of bottom. Check
1) Residential Supply falling… NO
2) Sub-Prime rate pipeline down to pre bubble levels ………………. NO
{in 3-6 months the 25 billion per mo. will become 40-60 for the next 28 months, followed by a drop then another spike for 18 more months.
3) Builder bankruptcies……. NO (minimal)
4) stocks peak down for 18 months…..NO
5) Credit squeeze doubling of rates……NO
6) Media stories of building projects stopped dead in the middle of building……………………….NO
7)Caterpillar equipment seen idle every where…..NO
8)Gold to DJI ratio less than 4 x…………….NO
9) average rents provide cash flow to investor….NO
10) Media & public now say homes are places to live not an investment vehicle…………………….NO
Not so sure early bird catches the worm here! IMO!
____________________________
Update today:
I did not understand #8, as the DJI average was $14,000 and gold was $700/ounce (a 20 to 1 ratio). What could Inspired mean by this? Well, as you all know now, the DJI went to $7,000 (early 2009) and gold went to $1800/ounce (2011)!
And housing still continued to crater……. I remained patient and bought in 2008, 2009 and 2010. My later purchases were much better deals than my earlier purchases. Everything I own is worth more than I paid today and all the assets cash flow very nicely. I have sold one house (for personal reasons, not because I think prices are dropping) and have done very well.
So where are we going from here?
I think we are going into a period of mediocrity. Housing prices will bounce around for a few years, going up a little, down a little, basically keeping pace with a 2% inflation rate. The stock market will bounce around a bit more, down 10%, up 10%, but it will be hard for the market to overcome the QE tapering, even as the economy continues to get stronger and recover. Employment will continue to improve. Wages will slowly grow. 2014 will be a quiet year, harnessed to the yokes, plowing ahead. Not much fun, but definitely better than the years of the bust.
And you went ahead and paid a 200%+ premium anyway.
Why???
Why?
I have told you many, many times, my ROI is well over 100% on my investments and it is continuing to cash flow. HA, you are an idiot….wash, rinse, repeat….
Why?
I have told you many, many times, …….
Why?
Why?
Why?
You are like a 2-year old…..
Riiiight…. your cap rates are 100% eh? LOLZ
A straight and honest response isn’t part of your constitution.
HA, It is pretty clear you don’t know the difference between a Cap Rate and ROI. I bought at a 6% Cap Rate. What is it you do not understand. I will explain it to you.
You can’t even keep your stories straight. Don’t bother.
A cap rate is the net operating income before debt service, divided by the purchase price.
ROI is the return on your invested capital. So if I buy a $300,000 house with $75,000 down and $225,000 in debt, my invested capital is $75,000. (Basic, but you evidently need the schooling).
If the property cash flows $300/mon, that is $3,600/year or 4.8% return on my INVESTED capital. Additionally, if I pay down $3,000 in principal/year, that is another 4% to my ROI (Return on Investment).
If the $300,000 house goes up 30% ($90,000) and I sell it, my ROI (after expenses) approaches $75,000. No remember, HA, I only invested $75,000, so my ROI is 100%, PLUS the 3 years of cash flow.
I hope you can understand and remember this, and if not, I will explain it again when you need to be reminded.
So you’re cashflow and ROI negative. That’s what happens when you speculate on depreciating assets like houses.
Enjoy your losses.
I guess I do need to explain it to you AGAIN.
Just like a 2-year old child.
Burdbrain HA can’t grasp the concept of good investment working in real estate……ever, never, never.
Your losses are making you come unglued.
About that math….
If you buy a house for $300,000, that is your investment, not the portion that was your unborrowed money.
If you actually have $300/mo in clear income from the rental, they your ROI is 1%, not 100%.
You can only guess and hope that you will sell the house for more than you paid. Until that day, there is no “return”, only euphoria.
Sorry, but paying down the principle on a loan is not a return on investment.
A 1% ROI with high risk of massive leveraged losses does not sound like something to brag about.
Your ROI isn’t on the $300K. Your ROI is on the amount you actually invested, not the value of an asset.
If you put $50K down on that $300K and your net rental income is $300/mo, then your ROI is 7.2%…$3600 divided by $50,000.
ROI = Return on Investment not Return on Asset Price
Even if that house drops in value to $200K, or increases in value to $400K, the ROI doesn’t change.
Sorry, you paid $300K, that is the investment. How much of it you borrowed isn’t part of the equation. Any other approach is debt donkey foolishness.
Q: Nice car Mr. Smithers. How much did you pay for it?
A: Oh it didn’t cost me anything. I financed it!
No, you didn’t ***INVEST*** $300K. Do you really not understand the difference between an investment and an asset value? This is finance 101…hell this is high school finance.
And the fact you equate buying a car with investing in real estate further shows how little you understand about assets and investing.
And you wonder why you get left behind every year while the eeeeevil rich Wall St people make money. Here’s a hint: they understand what the term investment means.
Either way, both depreciate.
Borrowing is not free money. Only Debt Donkeys think this way.
I can tell the difference between a house and a car. One has wheels on the ground under it and the other has wheels on the ground behind it.
M. slith:
If the borrower continues to pay the loan until the debt has been satisfied, then he or she has invested $300k plus interest. If you flip the house for major duckets in a short time, then you can avoid such payments. Otherwise, you will make the payments or go bankrupt or both.
UFWWYLM
“…If the borrower continues to pay the loan until the debt has been satisfied, then he or she has invested $300k plus interest….”
I don’t pay the loan. The renter makes all the loan payments and expenses, then gives me another $300/mon on top.
I do take some risk and provide maintenance (included in rent, but I do the work) and I keep 2-years of reserves in liquid assets, so I sleep well at night.
Yes, you’re right Jingle Male, as long as you have a profit on the rent each month (after maintenace, vacancies, taxes, etc), then you’re good. However, in the end, your total return will be calculated by how much you earned, divided by how much you spent.
Slith isn’t right to say that only your down payment is part of the equation.
Wow.
If you borrow 300K, you’re on the hook for 300K. Plus taxes. Plus interest. Plus carrying costs. Plus whatever miscellaneous fees go into brokering the transaction.
Corporations are logical constructs, firewalls from which people use to take profit if things go well, and which take the loss if there are losses. Individuals gambling their own saved money is a different beast than individuals using corporate constructs to gamble other people’s money.
Joe Cassano of AIG lost billions, but walked away 300 million dollars wealthier.
If one does not have teams of high-priced lawyers and social lines to bought politicians, one will lose a lot of money or go to jail for financial transactions that are too clever by half.
If the borrower continues to pay the loan until the debt has been satisfied, then he or she has invested $300k plus interest. If you flip the house for major duckets in a short time, then you can avoid such payments. Otherwise, you will make the payments or go bankrupt or both.
___________
Wrong. The net $300/mo is after interest is paid. Your ***INVESTMENT*** is the money you put down. Not a penny more or less.
“Wow.
If you borrow 300K, you’re on the hook for 300K. Plus taxes. Plus interest. Plus carrying costs. Plus whatever miscellaneous fees go into brokering the transaction.”
____________
Yes indeed. WOW!! At the complete lack of understand of basic principles like ROI from you people.
Interest is an expense. So is carrying costs. So is taxes. All those are expenses subtracted from rental income. None of these things are part of the investment.
It’s as if you people have never taken an account class. And yet here you are dispensing advice on investments. Hilarious.
Plus losses to depreciation.
The mere notion that even a new constructed house is somehow worth $300k is laughable.
Remember…. We and our competitors build profitably for $55-60/sq foot irrespective of location.
“So is taxes…”
That them are.
There is the way a business figures return on investment and then there is the realator world view. If you came home from Vegas owing the casino $100K you’d say you only lost your original $100.
Taxes, interest…all expenses. Accounting 101.
Only someone with zero education or training in finance/accounting would say taxes/interest = investment.
Taxes, interest, depreciation, all losses.
Remember…. houses are depreciating assets, ALWAYS. They never pay you back.
Hard for us to believe that you have a real world education. Have you ever done a capital project request in a real world corporation?
The notion of a capex program is like speaking chinese to debt donkeys.
Based on your post above, you are a liar.
What are you talking about? Nothing stated above is untrue.
I posted the 2007 comments from Inspired so you could compare them to the situation today. A lot of people here believe we are in another bubble.
What conditions in Inspired’s post currently exist today?
Considering all the points, we are in a much more dangerous place today than in 2007.
Blue, are you kidding me?
People were paying $680,000 for houses in 2006 & 7. The same houses I purchased for under $300,000 in 8, 9 & 10.
These are the same houses now selling for over $400,000 today. My position is much better than what existed in 2007. You and HA should go to school together….probably middle school.
And you’re not fooling anyone here. You claim to be holding onto a couple depreciating houses you paid too much for.
They’re your losses.
JM, your timing might look good to you at the moment. Your personal timing, assuming all goes well for you and there is never the next wave down. I’d say we are collectively farther out on a limb than we were in 2007. Personally, I believe I am not. Yet we will probably all hang together. Those who leveraged up over the past six years will contribute to the pain we all will feel.
This doesn’t make any sense. You didnt buy in 07 because these factors weren’t there, but then did in 08 when they still weren’t present?
If you bought in CA in 08 then you are deeply underwater. I forget the history here cause I pop in and out, but I think you just outed yourself as a big time liar with this post.
You have made HA happy, Happy New Year!
HA is blissfully happy. He believes real estate will always go down in value….well, at least it will “depreciate” (according to his definition). This seems to make him very happy.
The homes I purchased in the Sacramento foothills in ‘08, ‘09, & ‘10 were acquired at $80-90/SF. I sold one in July for $120/SF ($100k gain + 3-years of positive cash flow). The rest have increased as much or more.
I am quite happy. Housing can be a great investment if you act wisely and are patient. Just like it can be a big loser if you are stupid and buy at the top.
Remember, Sacramento headed into the bust much earlier and much harder them most of the country, because we were so overbuilt and over-bought here. I could get into selected markets at very favorable prices.
It’s not about me and what I believe although I nor anyone else here believes anything you say but that’s besides the point for this discussion.
So you’re holding on to screaming losses thinking they’ll magically right side themselves and turn into gains? That’s not how it works with depreciating assets like houses. They’re never a net gain. You’ll find that out the hard way.
As far as your lack of credibility goes, that’s entirely your creation.
You are right HA, it is not about what you believe.
Good. Now you’re catching on.
Oh, I caught on early….you can’t see the forest because of the “depreciating” trees. That’s the Burdbrain thinking.
You’re defenseless once again.
You can post irrefutable evidence but some here will never acknowledge the truth as they are too invested in the opposite conclusion. Your efforts are admirable though.
I am out in your neck of the woods this week visiting in laws in Fairfield. I see there’s a pretty serious drought issue here. Hopefully there is some rain soon….
Exactly.
We’ve established over and over again that housing is always a depreciating asset and results in massive losses at current asking prices of resale housing. Look no further than the millions of underwater loan owners out there.
Always stand with truth no matter how difficult it is.
I have established over and over again that housing can be a great investment vehicle. You can often sell them for more than you paid.
I have never sold a house for less than I paid, though I have often purchase for less than the seller paid.
Housing is never an “investment”. Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, ALWAYS.
What was the price per square foot of what you bought in 08? You area degenerate gambler applying gambling math to somehow make it a win.
Break it out by year. There was a world of difference between 08 and 2010 in CA.
Price per square foot of what you bought in 08? An easy question. Crickets…
Your losses are incalculable.
And quit trying to revise history to pretend like Sacramento area was a bargain in 08. I was there and you are a lying shill.
The first house I bought in 2008 for $385,000 from Countrywide. It was 3,100 SF. I lived in it as my home for 3 years and it was a great house for my family.
I did an Obama refi in 2009 to obtain a 4.15% loan. My PITI is about $2100/mon and I now rent it for $2300/mon. Because of the low interest rate on the loan, my principal reduction is $450/mon. I owe about $280,000 on the loan today.
The market value is now about $450,000, but I don’t want to sell it. As I mentioned before, my first house after the bust was not my best deal and the value went to $350,000 after I bought it.
The values all were stagnate or lower after my purchases, but they all bounced up 25-35% after 2011. I did much better on the all the subsequent purchases and should be set for the rest of my life if I manage the portfolio properly for the next 10 years.
I hope you did 15 year fixed on those boys. Otherwise you are paying WAAAAAAYY too much interest.
“The homes I purchased in the Sacramento foothills in ‘08, ‘09, & ‘10 were acquired at $80-90/SF.”
$385,000 for 3100 sq ft in 2008 is not $80-90/sf, it is $124 a square foot. So you have proved yourself a liar. I’m sure there are many other examples of your faulty math like forgetting any money that you spent on improvements, carrying costs, whatever.
Plus this shack you got for 385 in 08 was not going for 680 in 06-07 like you said about something up above.
I am not really paying any interest. My renters are paying all the costs, plus about $300+ per month to pay my loan off and $250/mon per house to me. Cash flow is king.
Your cap rates are negative at the inflated price you paid.
You have no cashflow. You know it. We know it.
Greenshirt says:
“…..Plus this shack you got for 385 in 08 was not going for 680 in 06-07 like you said about something up above…..”
Actually Greenshirt, the “shack” sold for $683,500 on April 26th, 2006 from the builder. The “buyer” was a hotel maid named Martina, living in Woodland. She was a straw buyer, sister of a friend of the fraud buyer/speculator. Countrywide gave her a 1st mortgage of $547,000 and a 2nd mortgage of $69,000 (80/10) because she had good credit.
I called the her early on in the foreclosure process and she did not even know the loan was in default. She gave me her brother’s friends name. He was still in denial and wanted $800,000 for the house. I just waited for the Recon Trust to do it’s thing and then bought it for $385,000 about 3 months after it went up for sale. Funny, they turned down my first offer of $400,000, so I offered less and they took it!
And you overpaid by $200k. The place could have been built for 180k.
Does the thought ever cross your mind that there isn’t a house on the planet worth $600k?
Actually Greenshirt, the “shack” sold for $683,500 on April 26th, 2006 from the builder. The “buyer” was a hotel maid named Martina, living in Woodland. She was a straw buyer, sister of a friend of the fraud buyer/speculator. Countrywide gave her a 1st mortgage of $547,000 and a 2nd mortgage of $69,000 (80/10) because she had good credit.
So they borrowed $616,000 and put down about 70k on a fraud sale? You are delusional.
Also how did you get something so quickly from Recontrust at that time? Either you got super lucky, or more likely what is always unspoken by you: shenanigans. Either way, get out now cause your losses are mounting.
Plus you didn’t admit that it was 124 bucks a square foot so you are a liar.
“I did an Obama refi in 2009 to obtain a 4.15% loan” Meaning one of those HAMP loans or something similar? I thought it had to be your primary residence to take advantage of those programs.
It was my primary residence at the time I did the refi. You are correct.
Underwater debt-donkey.
“f you bought in CA in 08 then you are deeply underwater. ”
Not really, prices in SoCal anyway are right around 2008 levels right now.
…. and falling.
Lying shill.
Ostrich….head…..sand….your ass is in the air….
No lying here, no shill here, just a plain old farm boy from Oregon trying to provide a counter balance to all the doomsday Burdbrains on this blog.
Just a lying egomaniacal twit who pulls numbers out of his ass.
How to get the economy moving.
Destroy those who create jobs.
That’s because obamacare is a political weapon designed to bludgeon those groups unlikely to vote for democrats.
But if you are an obama friend (cough - unions) you get an exemption.
———————
Here are the big losers in ObamaCare
New York Post ^ | 1-2-14 | Carl Campanile, Bruce Golding and Beth DeFalco
New York’s small-business owners, seniors and doctors are among the big losers as President Obama’s prescription for health-insurance reform takes effect.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses, an organization that represents nearly 11,000 entrepreneurs across the state, says it has yet to find a single member whose health-care costs are going down under the ObamaCare program, whose plans took effect New Year’s Day.
Meanwhile, an “overwhelming majority” of businesses canvassed by the group has reported increases in their insurance premiums, said Mike Durant, the NFIB’s New York director.
Michael Kennedy, who runs two family-owned dog-grooming salons near Albany, said changes to his cut-rate insurance coverage mandated by ObamaCare had more than doubled the cost, from $132.99 to $325.92 a month per person.
And when he checked the cost of buying an ObamaCare policy instead, it was “basically the same price, or even more,” he said.
Kennedy, 46, said that he and his wife clear only about $60,000 a year from their Pink Dog Parlor and Resort business, and that paying the new, higher premiums will be “a huge challenge.”
“It’s like another 100 dogs we need to groom,” he said.
Capt. Fred Ardolino, who is the owner of the Atlantis charter yacht that cruises New York City’s waterways, said he was betrayed by Obama’s now infamous promise that “if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.”
Ardolino, 69, of Gerritsen Beach, Brooklyn, said his family physician was “randomly removed” from the network of managed-Medicare doctors approved by his insurance company, Oxford Health Plans.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses, an organization that represents nearly 11,000 entrepreneurs across the state, says it has yet to find a single member whose health-care costs are going down under the ObamaCare program, whose plans took effect New Year’s Day.
“It’s like another 100 dogs we need to groom”
This is where the rubber meets the road. Government thinks we can all just pull more money out of our wallet because they’ve never run out of it.
Icebergs ahead!
Too bad the government leeches are millions of deck chairs short.
Big Government = Titanic. And not just for the rubes.
Month in month out, those extra 100 dogs. And they’ll turn into 110, 120, or more. This is the counterpoint to the permanent dem supermajority. This person should never vote for Dems again. So we have the person from last week who’s girlfriend makes 18k a year and will pay 4 bucks a month for gold plated and then this poor dog clipping slob and his wife.
My bet is the groomer and his wife actually vote. (Not that I’m acknowledging it matters).
What whiners. Whine, whine, whine.
ObamaCare is a huge success! Ask any elitist anywhere! Ask any statist….they keep their cheap, gold-plated plan and attend free symphonies.
Life is good…unless of course you’re just barely elitist and your opportunities for cheap, “convenient entertainment” are dwindling. So sad, that.
“Michael Kennedy, who runs two family-owned dog-grooming salons near Albany, said changes to his cut-rate insurance coverage mandated by ObamaCare had more than doubled the cost, from $132.99 to $325.92 a month per person.”
Fear not! This will have no negative effect on the economy. Just talk to those with gold-plated plans.
And on a side note, how doe one earn a living washing dogs asses?
Look at what we’ve become. A nation of ass washers and broom operators.
I know that a$$ kissing has been around a long time and there’s no shortage!
Solution: Don’t do it.
You forgot to mention A$$ wipers.
Dog grooming is big business. $100 for a big dog in this area.
But they don’t just wash that one part of the dog. It’s a complicated business.
“And on a side note, how doe one earn a living washing dogs asses?”
My wife’s spaniel gets its ass cleaned with oatmeal shampoo when it goes in for a clipping. Nails done too. Then it’s off for a teeth cleaning…bad breath ‘ya know. My STEM job is great for something after all.
“Here are the big losers in ObamaCare”
Everyone who isn’t a moocher.
Remember - global warming can cause record cold spells across a continent.
Only higher taxes and more regulations can save us.
——–
Winnipeg deep freeze as cold as uninhabited planet
cbc news | January 1, 2014
Parts of Manitoba hit -53 C, colder than Mars
In terms of astonishing weather facts, it doesn’t get much more impressive than being as cold as a distant planet for a day.
Grounded planes
It’s so cold that one airline has decided not to fly in or out of Winnipeg.
ExpressJet, a partner of United Airlines, cancelled some flights Monday night and Tuesday morning.
In Winnipeg, the daytime high temperature for Tuesday was only expected to reach –31 C, but the windchill made it feel more like –40 to –50. That means exposed skin can freeze in less than five minutes.
A 16-year-old girl from Nigeria hasn’t been dissuaded by Winnipeg’s other-worldly cold. Lynda Okeke-Okoli arrived in Winnipeg just 48 hours ago to attend high school here.
It wasn’t exactly a warm welcome for the teen, with temperatures hovering below -30 C.
“I was just like, ‘God help me!’ I said, ‘God, please help me. I don’t know how I’m going to handle this!’” she said.
She said even advice from her dad hadn’t prepared her for the weather. Despite that, plans to stick out in Winnipeg.
Brrrr, it’s cold somewhere!
This message paid for by Koch and publicized by Drudge, better burn some more coal.
See also Carl’s post above regarding air quality in Shanghai.
Only higher and higher taxes, more and more regulations and bigger and bigger government can save us!
Out of curiosity - can government get any bigger or more powerful than the communist government in China?
This message paid for by Koch.
Stop offending 2banana’s employer!
Remember, big government will come for you some day.
Remember this…when it’s 95 in NYC in the summer, it’s proof positive that global warming exists.
When it’s -20 in winter….it’s just an anomaly.
From WUWT today, of course the glaciers will cover NY before some will concede that the AGW computer models do not work:
The International Falls, MN Airport had a record of 8 days with a temperature of less than -30 F in December. This breaks the old record of 7 days. The coldest temperature was -37 on the morning of the 30th. The high temperature for the month was 34 degrees on the 27th.
“Remember, big government will come for you someday.”
I *am* big government, except that I’m not. Because of the federal hiring freeze, every retiring federal employee within our agency that gets replaced gets backfilled with a contractor.
We’re just “shrinking the government down to the size where I can drown it in the bathtub”, one more contractor at a time, and at a cost to taxpayers of over $500,000,000,000 a year.
“See also Carl’s post above regarding air quality in Shanghai.”
Fighting true pollution is different than fighting a beneficial gas. In fact, raising manufacturing costs here to address co2 only causes more manufacturing in China where they burn coal full of mercury and arsenic without using scrubbers to remove sulfur (even when the plants are equipped with them) causing acid rain.
Discussion of China’s air pollution in the Obama Ministry of Truth official newspaper, the New York Times:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/12/26/business/energy-environment/worries-in-the-path-of-chinas-air.html
Good article and another example on how the global warming theory helps and is promoted by the globalists. Without this theory the environmental movement would be concentrating on how globalism has lead to production in countries with little or no environmental laws and how the entire globe is being polluted by them. So even if the globalists do not get the taxes from c02 to fund the world government they want or the vast transfers of wealth to pay for the infrastructure in the third world countries they want, they still win since no one in the environmental community is even suggesting that tariffs be placed on the worse polluters. To me, it is like getting the John Birch society to concentrate on fluoride in the water instead of tax policies favoring the off-shoring of industries.
I work for ExpressJet. The article should have read “Aircraft have temperature limitations, and sometimes it IS too cold to operate the aircraft” instead of “decided not to fly in and out of the airport”
Interesting that the article refers to wind-chill as well. I never would have thought aircraft felt wind-chill.
Moisture in the atmosphere primarily below 12,000-ft plays havoc with aircraft wings. A few aircraft are designed for known extreme icing conditions such as the Canadian DeHavilland Twin Otter or the Swiss Pilatus Porter. In most cases the financial reward isn’t worth the risk of life and aircraft.
An interesting Youtube video of the ATR 72 commuter aircraft experiencing uncontrolled flight in known icing conditions is worthwhile viewing. Lots of lost souls before a NASA/Dryden study determined that the leading edge deicing boots were not designed far enough back along the chord of the wing to dislodge ice build-up.
Sean and rms, great set of factoids! Thanks.
Don’t forget to also express your high-minded disdain for women, minorities, and gays. And then go watch that duck show for pleasure.
NEWS FLASH
Banker ARRESTED.
Too bad it has nothing to do with the massive fraud on wall street.
And John Corzine is STILL a FREE man.
——————
‘Dead’ banker arrested on $20m fraud charges … after his apparent suicide
The Daily Mail Online | January 1, 2014 | Daily Mail Reporter
A banker who vanished in an apparent suicide in 2012 and was wanted by the FBI in connection with a $20 million wire fraud case has been arrested in Georgia after being pulled over for a minor traffic violation.
Aubrey Lee Price, 47, was arrested after being stopped for a tinted window violation on Interstate 95.
Officers said that it was clear Price was giving them false information during the stop and they were soon able to determine that he was wanted by the FBI.
His arrest comes more than a year after a Florida judge had declared Price to be legally dead.
Despite the judge’s ruling, the FBI had continued to search for him and had offered a reward of up to $20,000 for his capture.
He disappeared in June 2012 after sending a rambling letter to his family and acquaintances that investigators took to be a confession….
Authorities believe Price slipped away with up to $17 million of investors’ money.
Two days later, Price’s family and acquaintances received letters saying he was going to Key West to board a ferry headed to Fort Meyers and planned to jump off somewhere along the way to end his life.
This guy will probably get jail time. Yet the tan man is still living it up.
http://www.csmonitor.com/var/archive/storage/images/media/images/1015_sec/8819951-1-eng-US/1015_SEC_full_600.jpg
Granite Bay CA Housing Prices Collapse 20% Year Over Year; Inventory Skyrockets 53%
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/granite-bay.htm
What do you call an industry ENTIRELY dependent of government subsidies to exist in its present form and that is economically unviable without BILLIONS in government handout?
Housing?
Health Care?
Student Loans?
Ethanol?
—————
Wind energy tax credit expires
NewsOK.com | January 1, 2014 | PAUL MONIES
The wind industry faces uncertainty again as a key federal incentive for wind farms expired at midnight Tuesday, almost one year after getting a reprieve.
Unlike last year, there’s no “fiscal cliff” deal to get Congress to act at the last minute to renew the wind production tax credit. A budget package passed earlier this month didn’t include any provisions for the incentive.
In Oklahoma, more than 1,500 megawatts of wind projects were announced in 2013, said Kylah McNabb, renewable energy specialist with the Oklahoma Commerce Department. Many of the announcements came in the second half of the year as companies began filling orders again after uncertainty over the credit in late 2012.
Still, with this week’s expiration of the production tax credit, the wind industry again faces uncertainty. Congress could renew the incentive in 2014 and make it retroactive to the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, some taxpayer watchdog groups have launched campaigns against the credit, arguing that the wind industry is strong enough without it.
The wind tax credit is expected to cost $7.7 billion from 2013 to 2017, according to February estimates by Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation. A separate estimate from the Congressional Research Service put the cost of the credit at $9.7 billion from 2013 to 2017.
Good news for the raptors including eagles.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-allow-eagle-deaths-aid-wind-power-202229717–finance.html;_ylt=A0oG7kfwfMVSFT8A_AxXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzYWNhYjI5BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2FjMgR2dGlkA1NNRTM0M18x
Bad link but it is from a December 6th, yahoo article. This paragraph shows how once again how the Obama administration violates it prosecutorial discretion and makes a mockery of its promise to run a transparent government.
An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year documented the illegal killing of eagles around wind farms, the Obama administration’s reluctance to prosecute such cases and its willingness to help keep the scope of the eagle deaths secret. The White House has championed wind power, a pollution-free energy intended to ease global warming, as a cornerstone of President Barack Obama’s energy plan.
Speaking of Drudge links, these two highlight the Obama recovery.
USA Today - Many feel like recession still hasn’t ended:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/01/01/cnbc-recovery-slowed-economy/4222929/
Associated Press - Retirement unlikely for some blue collar Americans:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AGING_AMERICA_BLUE_COLLAR_RETIREMENT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-12-31-20-03-44
Over the break I received an email from a headhunter. He included a link to the list of IT and CS positions he’s trying to fill for customers across the country. I perused through them and found an interesting pattern:
The best paying positions are in Silly Valley. They pay ranges for senior engineers were in the 100-140K range.
Boston was next, followed by NYC and LA. (say 90-120K)
Then there was flyover. There the salaries were in the 60-90K range.
60K for a senior engineer. Wasn’t that supposed to be entry level pay, like … 10 years ago?
$60K in Flyover = $120K on the coasts.
You know this.
By the way, you also know this….working for someone else will never make you wealthy.
Unless you’re a coporate executive of some type.
$60K in Flyover = $120K on the coasts.
People say that, but when we left Cali and moved to Colorado, we found that pretty much everything, except for houses, costs the same out here.
“except for the house”….which is the single biggest expense for just about everyone.
And it’s not just the house….taxes are higher, so right off the bat the $10K in CA income tax from that $120K is slashed to $1000 in income tax on $60K…if that.
Property tax is lower just about everywhere in between the two oceans
Gas is cheaper in between the oceans.
Electricity is cheaper in between the oceans.
Compare daycare costs in NYC vs St Louis or Oklahoma City. Same for private schools.
Property taxes are higher in Illinois than California.
I was a senior engineer in Tucson in 2000 barely making $60,000. And Tucson is notorious for low pay. That was 14 years ago!
More Drudge:
“A professor who teaches constitutional law courses at the City University of New York’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice penned a Christmas Day essay blaming “southern White radicals” for the disastrous, slow-motion train wreck failure that has been the rollout of the Affordable Care Act.
“Southern White radicals vowed to stop implementation of the Obama-care law leading one to wonder if Tea Party members would oppose affordable healthcare if it came from a non-Black President,” writes Browne-Marshall.
Browne-Marshall teaches courses in constitutional law and evidence. She is also a member of the gender studies faculty.”
http://dailycaller.com/2014/01/01/professor-blames-southern-white-radicals-for-obamacare-debacle/
Top story on Obama Ministry of Truth newspaper the New York Times notes Boehner to cave to the Shamnesty:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/02/us/politics/boehner-is-said-to-back-change-on-immigration.html?from=homepage
Ariel Sharon said to be near death. Maybe he’ll regain enough strength that we could dig up Rachel Corrie’s corpse to let him drive a bulldozer over it for his dying wish
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/02/world/middleeast/ariel-sharon-former-prime-minister-of-israel.html?from=homepage
‘A few months before Kaduri died at the age of 108, he surprised his followers when he told them that he met the Messiah. Kaduri gave a message in his synagogue on Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, teaching how to recognize the Messiah. He also mentioned that the Messiah would appear to Israel after Ariel Sharon’s death. (The former prime minister is still in a coma after suffering a massive stroke more than a year ago.) Other rabbis predict the same, including Rabbi Haim Cohen, kabbalist Nir Ben Artzi and the wife of Rabbi Haim Kneiveskzy.’
http://www.israeltoday.co.il/NewsItem/tabid/178/nid/23877/Default.aspx
Ya know, I’m tired of assorted and sundry messiahs appearing by means of cloudshape or breadslice or cloaked horseman or solitary geezer, with cryptic messages like “I shall appear unto you when” or “ye shall know me by.” Haysoos, one would think they’d learn from previous messiah mistakes and reach out to a bigger audience, like rickroll a Justin Bieber youtube or take out a commercial during the Superbowl.* After all, they created us hyoomins, they ought to know what we respond to. And how about letting us keep the golden plates this time?
————–
*or, if the messiah gave his stuff to the poor and can’t afford the $2.5 mil for 30 seconds, he could decree that Buffalo win the Superbowl itself. Effective AND cost-effective.
‘Around 100 people were killed in Democratic Republic of Congo when security forces clashed with supporters of a self-proclaimed prophet who tried to seize control of the airport, a military barracks and state television, the government said Tuesday.’
‘Before transmission was shut down at state television in capital Kinshasa on Monday, the attackers shouted slogans in favor of disgruntled religious leader Paul Joseph Mukungubila and against President Joseph Kabila.’
“Gedeon Mukungubila has come to free you from the slavery of the Rwandan,” shouted one youth in the Lingala language on television, while two panicked presenters stared at the camera.’
“There are around 100 dead,” government spokesman government spokesman Lambert Mende said on Tuesday, adding that Mukungubila was on the run from authorities.’
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/31/22118603-scores-die-as-followers-of-prophet-gedeon-seize-tv-station-in-congo
After all, they created us hyoomins, they ought to know what we respond to. And how about letting us keep the golden plates this time?
The prophets created humans? I do not know anyone of any faith that believes that. The trouble with prophets is that there is an assumption that God choses to teach through the lecture mechanism. I think that he uses and in fact invented the Socratic method. I think the quality of lawyers has greatly suffered since that method has fallen out-of-favor in law schools.
Love it, Oxide!
Anyone with a contrarian streak will have a hard time ignoring this ominous sign for the stock market:
Bulletin S&P, Dow industrials start 2014 lower after ending 2013 at record levels »
The Markets News and Analysis Blog
Nouriel Roubini — a.k.a. ‘Dr. Doom’ — is getting optimistic
January 2, 2014, 8:17 AM
Is it time to retire the “Dr. Doom” moniker for Nouriel Roubini?
The respected New York University economist has made it clear that he’s not fond of the nickname (he thinks “Dr. Realist” has better ring to it). He’s certainly been pivoting toward a more optimistic outlook over the past few months. Now, his latest 2014 outlook definitely bolsters his nascent bullish credentials.
…
Isn’t it Roubini who they say predicted 5 of the last 1 recessions?
He’s not the only one who is getting optimistic…which makes me nervous. The more complacency that comes into the market, the more out of whack values are likely to become.
I suspect though that the initial optimism is based on expectations of corporate earnings growth, and we won’t have real madness until there is some confirmation that such earnings growth is occurring…when does earnings season start? Alcoa is January 9th, the traditional first reporter…
Watch that forward guidance and the stock market’s reaction…if the stock market reaction is positive, watch out above…
We Just Lost Afghanistan Because We’re Not Earth’s Special Snowflake
http://gawker.com/we-just-lost-afghanistan-because-were-not-earths-spec-1491586303
Remember 9/11
Let’s roll
These colors don’t run
Power of pride
Mission accomplished
Support our troops
We have to fight them over there so we won’t have to fight them over here
et cetera
And don’t forget to place the ghey magnetic ribbon on the back of your vehicle.
This same link will get you to a story about the marines and women not being able to do three pull-ups. Sorry if you cannot do three pull-ups, you are unfit for combat.
As the Marine Corps inches closer to permitting women into ground combat roles, the service is delaying its 2014 plan to require female Marines to do three pullups. The reason: Women haven’t proven very good at the exercise so far.
The Corps announced the move on Twitter a few weeks back, but it’s getting added attention now since the pullup program for women was supposed to go into effect Jan. 1. “So far, female Marines are not succeeding,” according to NPR:
This is a blog about the housing bubble. It is not a blog about the fact that you hate women, gays, minorities, and science.
In other news, duck guy advises y’all to marry teenagers.
This is a blog about the housing bubble. It is not a blog about the fact that you hate women, gays, minorities, and science.
Maybe I reject the fact that telling the truth about something is hate. If you do not have the upper body strength to perform three pull-ups you are not fit for combat. Facts are stubborn things. Also, it is the bits section which is open to any posts. Finally, I have connected global warming and the housing bubble many times.
Maybe I reject the fact that telling the truth about something is hate. If you do not have the upper body strength to perform three pull-ups you are not fit for combat. Facts are stubborn things.
That’s not a fact. It’s a judgment.
That’s not a fact. It’s a judgment.
Really. So you think that someone that does not have the strength to carry heavy weapons or shells etc. really belongs on the front lines?
Hey but for the sake of PC lets reduce all the requirements, so what if they can only throw a grenade ten yards? The woman “warriors” on this blog will not have to suffer the consequences that slower, weaker soldiers cause the unit.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/02/us/politics/first-pull-ups-then-combat-marines-say.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0
Dan:
Mike correctly assessed your statement as a judgement, not a fact.
Yes. But it is a judgment based on the facts of combat. it is a very physically demanding environment and while some women may have the capacity very few will. The requirements should not be reduced for the sake of PC, but as a NYT article already stated they have for women and now we want to reduce them even more. The three pull-up requirement was the minimum required due to the judgment of the professionals of what the facts of combat required. While this issue may be at the intersection of fact vs. judgment, it is a fact that combat does require upper body strength and women on average have significant less upper body strength, that is a biological fact, the hardest fact of all to get around.
This has happened to police forces as well. Nothing makes me feel safer than seen a 5′2″ 110lb woman office patrolling the streets.
It would be sexist (and racis) to only have 6′2″, 220 lb men in that job.
It makes me feel better to know that if I ever have to call a cop, then there is a slight chance that it might be a female. The female cop is much less likely to automatically blame the female victims of crime.
Really. So you think that someone that does not have the strength to carry heavy weapons or shells etc. really belongs on the front lines?
No, I don’t think that. However, even if everybody agrees with your judgment (or opnion) doesn’t make it a fact.
We Just Lost Afghanistan Because We’re Not Earth’s Special Snowflake
The Brits couldn’t do it.
The Soviets couldn’t do it.
What made anyone think we could do it? And I do remember the naysayers mentioning past history and thinking “Hmmm … they have a good point there”
But it felt good to many to go in there an “bomb the Muhammad out of them”. A friend of mine, who was retired from the Navy back then said that it was good that we showed some “intestinal fortitude” and that “Clinton would have just lobbed a few cruise missiles and called it a day”
We could have done it. We chose to fight a PC war instead, where US soldiers are sitting in jail for hurting the enemy’s feelings. When you fight a PC war, you can’t win.
Bush is as much to blame for this as is Obama. They both had the same “let’s fight a war without killing anyone” mentality.
685 billion in 12 years? That’s only Afghanistan.
No wonder this country is broke beyond repair.
Is Wall Street suffering from a massive hangover after their blowout months long New Year’s party?
Jan. 2, 2014, 9:52 a.m. EST
Treasurys inch higher ahead of ISM data
By Ben Eisen, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices swung higher Thursday ahead of data on manufacturing and construction growth, as the market watches for improving economic data that could send rates higher.
The 10-year note (10_YEAR -0.69%) yield, which falls as prices rise, was down slightly at 3.004%, after closing above the 3% threshold last week for the first time since July of 2011, according to Tradeweb.
The 30-year bond (30_YEAR -0.63%) yield fell slightly to 3.940%, while the 5-year note (5_YEAR -0.46%) yield fell half a basis point to 1.731%.
…
I think that the PTB are really scared. Think of the economy as a rocket trying to escape the gravitational pull of the Earth. The rocket needs to have sufficient fuel to achieve and maintain escape velocity. This recovery has been based on government spending and the creation of money by the Fed reserve, which has been the rocket fuel. The rocket fuel is running out and the PTB have done the calculations and know the rocket is not going to make it and will soon fall back to earth. You can only spin it so long and say the rocket is higher than it was in 2008, it will soon fall back to Earth. They pulled out all the stops in 2013 to manipulate the stock market higher and housing prices higher including manipulating gold to try to force money out of that sector. All of these efforts were to create more consumer demand to take the place of government spending and Fed money creation.
The result? Weak Christmas spending which will soon result in a weak private sector and the falling of the rocket back to Earth despite their propaganda of a healing economy.
Let them expand the NFL by a few teams. Maybe that will stave off the riots.
NFL should be alarmed that three of four playoff games, including Green Bay’s home game, still not sold out
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/nfl-alarmed-three-four-playoff-games-including-green-213137570–nfl.html
Could it be freezing cold and snow?
Possibly, but that didn’t used to discourage many people in the past. I think it’s more a sign of the times, like who cares about a buncha overpaid thugs slammin’ each other and chasing a ball in the Corporation Dome? For what? Certainly not for home team pride and support, what’s to be proud of?
These “teams” belong to corps and owners. They can have ‘em.
With a 60″ HD tv and surround sound stereo….why go pay $150 to sit in freezing cold weather? I think that’s what’s killing attendance for sporting events. It’s just a better experience to watch at home. And DVR means you can start watching the game 1/2 an hour after it starts and skip all the commercials too, while watching it in almost real time.
The exception is college football, where the atmosphere is something you can’t get at home.
“These “teams” belong to corps and owners. They can have ‘em.”
That has always been the case. Are you advocating for govt owned teams? Cuz that’s the choice. Either evil rich (white) owners own the team or the govt owns the team. Or I guess there is a 3rd option, let’s make unions own the team. What could go wrong?
Smithers, you do realize that the NFL is a commie sports league, right? TV revenue is redistributed among all the teams equally no matter how big the market. Players and refs are unionized too — remember the 2012 referee lockout? Teams have salary caps to distribute the best players among all the teams. The low performing teams don’t go out of business; they are rewarded with the first pick in next draft. And the team with the most dedicated fans is … the non-profit Green Bay Packers, owned by the town.
“These “teams” belong to corps and owners.”
ROLLERBALL
I see your Rollerball, and I raise:
SOLARBABIES
“Smithers, you do realize that the NFL is a commie sports league, right?”
You forgot to mention stadium construction.
My theory is that most libs - see Pajama Boy - were beaten up a lot in high school by football players. So they loathe the NFL
I think they were beaten up by the cheerleaders too so they loath the NFL cheerleaders.
“You forgot to mention stadium construction.”
Bamboozling the taxpayer into forking over money something that that the owners should be financing themselves? That’s straight up crony-capitalism.
ABQDan. You said it better than I could have. You’re dead on.
Thanks as is your analysis that the best value of a house is the worth of the materials in it and reasonable amount for labor. Most land prices are presently the product of speculation and artificial constraints.
Yeah…. That’s why it’s wise to avoid land. The losses are built in.
Just after gold was written off for dead, we see the stock market tanking and gold pretty much the only thing strongly moving up today.
What gives?
Manipulation only works for so long, fundamentals have a “bad” habit of overwhelming even governmental intervention and manipulation over the longer term. However, to paraphrase Keynes, governments can pursue irrational policies longer than rational free market people can sometimes stay solvent enough to take advantage of the market distortions. Thus, my advise to always hedge positions which are contrary to the will of government.
I predict that the stock market will triple in value within the next year, and today’s dip is merely a bear trap.
I predict that the stock market will triple in value within the next year, and today’s dip is merely a bear trap.
Yes, you would think that.
KeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeyRAAAAAAAAAAAASH!!!
Thats the sound of collapsing housing demand and prices…. coming to your neighborhood.
I recently put a bid in to purchase a home a few weeks ago. The seller came back just before new years and asked that all qualified bidders submit a letter as to why they feel they should have the “right” to purchase their home. I laughed and sent them a letter telling them to get bent. If it has come down to boot licking in order to purchase anything, I will remain on the sidelines.
If I had to choose, I’d write the letter before signing up 30 years of mortgage bondage and a lifetime of irrecoverable losses.
You probably did not get this request from the seller. I’d bet you got it from the Realator.
You should have submitted two letters, “F” and “U”.
Only thing crappier than a UAW built American car is a UAW built Italian car. Fiat is buying the remaining piece of Chrysler it doesn’t already own. It’s a good thing Obama saved Chrysler from bankruptcy. Otherwise how would the world manage without the Sebring?
Only thing crappier than a UAW built American car is a UAW built Italian car.
It is kind of like the saying during the beginning of WWII that the worse combination you could have is U.S. enlisted men lead by British officers.
Prime is Contained:
I made a comment the other day about rents going up with price levels over long periods of time, but generally speaking, gold less consistently does so (citing the gold peak in 1980 that took 25+ years to be reached again).
You asked if rents do in fact keep up with inflation.
Long story short, I don’t have specific data supporting a “yes”.
In part, this is because a measure of residential rent levels is part of the inflation numbers (I think like 30% of CPI), so rents are going to be VERY correlated with price levels as measured by CPI.
What I will say is that knowing the math behind new development, it would be very odd indeed if rents didn’t keep up with inflation over time. Why?
Because new development doesn’t occur unless rents justify the cost of development. Costs of development include labor, energy, and materials. If those three costs categories are higher today than in 1980, then, at equivalent yield expectations, supply will be restricted until rents rise to a level commensurate with 2014 development cost levels.
The biggest rub in that sentence is “at equivalent yield expectations”. With falling yield expectations over time, developers can absorb higher costs, without commensurately higher rents, since lower yield expectations allowed them to sell for lower yields (cap rates).
So, since yields have generally fallen from 1980 until today, I would guess that rents have NOT kept up with labor, energy and material cost increases. HOWEVER, if we are at the end of a debt supercycle, where yields are expected to rise, then you will probably see rents outpace general inflation for the coming years.
This is the reason, that even though I’m thinking about going to cash in 2014, I will likely NOT sell any of my REIT stocks. While increasing yields will hurt REIT values, rent growth should be strong over the coming years, which, over time will increase dividends. Since my play in the REITs was buying at post-crash levels for long-term cash flow, my objectives (growing cash flow and hedging inflation) will be met.
If you are interested in this dynamic, I suggest you read the following:
http://ir.prologis.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=794310
And their research paper that details the dynamic behind their conclusions.
http://www.prologis.com/docs/PLD_Research_Rent_Forecast.pdf
These dynamics are not unique to logistics real estate.
It doesn’t much matter at this point. Rental rates are roughly half the cost of buying at current inflated asking prices of resale housing.
Thus question is;
Now that housing prices have resumed their decline back to mid 1990’s levels, how will that impact rental rates?
But why not just buy houses then?
That is an excellent question…if you were Blackstone, or Colony, or AM4R, the answer would be “that’s exactly WHY we are buying houses”.
Houses are goofy…the fact that they are frequently owned by the occupant, combined with government incentives that distort the market often times cause rental yields to fall too far relative to the home value, so it’s not a pure investment market. This means that if you want to be involved in that business as an investor where you are buying and selling homes based on rental yields, there will be many more times that you should not be buying ANYTHING as compared to other real estate property types in certain markets. In some markets, this level has already been reached (prices are way too high relative to rents), in some markets, not.
However, while being illiquid (as all real estate is), they are far more easily sold than other real estate.
The other item to consider is that the way you get to increase your rent over time, is to be able to kick out tenants that are unable/unwilling to pay a higher rent. Some individual landlords find this distasteful (they don’t want to kick people out of what is effectively their home), and some cities try to restrict landlord’s ability to do this (rent control for some properties). There is more risk of government meddling in the home rental market than in commercial markets.
The other side is maintenance…a warehouse building is four walls, a roof, a bathroom, and a little bit of office space. No kids are running around the property, and no parties are being thrown on Friday nights.
Often times with commercial property, you can structure rents such that some or all CAMs (common area maintenance costs) are covered by the tenant…so if there is an unforeseen repair, you can pass it on to the tenants. Good luck doing this with a renter in a house. Our business owns some retail property where the landlord essentially has NO obligations to maintain the property for 20 years (the term of the lease)…the most landlord friendly lease I have ever seen.
The biggest reasons for me though to not simply buy homes is 1) liquidity (I can sell my REITs with a click of a mouse and go to cash in a day with almost no cost), 2) diversification (through my REIT holdings, I literally own a piece of rents from thousands of tenants all around the world), and 3) hassle (nobody is calling me about a leaky faucet).
Would I buy one of the publicly traded REITs that is buying rental homes?
Maybe. I haven’t yet. The only one I might buy so far is AMH…they have scale, and experience running public REITs in their management.
So far though, I’m sticking to REITs that own industrial space and grocery/discount retail space (Target/Walmart, etc.). No apartments…yields are currently too low and I didn’t buy them when I should have in 2009 when yields were MUCH higher. No office (except shares in a private company that may go public at some point)…the long-term trend for office usage isn’t good generally.
But don’t you have to give up a lot of profits with the REIT? Because of all those layers of management I mean.
The property management business sucks…it doesn’t make much money at all. If you own private RE, and you pay a third party, you are paying for a small profit margin and the time of low-pay employees.
If you have plenty of time to spare to do all the work yourself, then yes, you can give up some profit due to the G&A paid (you also gain their management expertise, and massive diversification of holdings). But G&A is generally a pretty small number if you own a big REIT.
Example: Prologis revenue last quarter:
$379MM of Rental Income
$48MM of Investment Management Income
$3MM of Development Management Income
$26MM from co-investment/joint ventures
On the expense side, among property related expenses, there was:
$22MM of Investment Management Expense
$55MM of G&A
If you offset the Investment and Development Management Revenue with the Investment Management Expense and G&A, you have a net cost per quarter of $26MM per quarter to run the show, on rents plus co-invest/JV revenue of $405MM. This is 6.4% G&A expense.
If you own a rental home, and you rent it for $2,000 per month, this is like paying someone $125 or so to do EVERYTHING…you simply need to watch when your check for NET rents hits your bank account (I emphasize NET, because there will be costs that offset the $2k per month, just like there are costs to offset the $405MM per month at ProLogis).
And to show it’s not an anomaly…how about DDR (another REIT I own):
Rents of $150MM last quarter
Management and other Fee income of $10MM
G&A expense of $19MM
Net management expense of $9MM last quarter on rents of $150MM, or 6%.
Or First Industrial?
Rents of $65MM, G&A of $5MM, or 7.7% of the gross (A bit higher than the others…paying about $150 per month for all-inclusive management on the hypothetical $2k rent).
For some people, it’s not worth it for the added expense…for others, paying a third party something to have a brainless investment is worth it. However, remember that the REITs are generally valued on the NET cash flow, and if you bought the REIT at a good value, the price you paid took into consideration the G&A expense of the company.
The one MAJOR negative of a REIT is that very rarely does a REIT’s stock price reflect the actual net asset value of the property that it owns.
Sometimes, REITs trade for a premium to NAV (which I think is the case now), and other times a discount (which was the case post crash in 2008/2009.
In other words, if you want to liquidate a home that you own, you will get the market value for it, less your cost of sale (whatever that may be). No more…no less.
If you want to liquidate your REIT holdings, you will likely either get more or less than the sum total of the net assets that REIT owns (which can be good or bad).
It’s like the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle…you can either be able to sell for exactly the market value of the real property you own (owning private real estate), or have near perfect liquidity (owning REITs), but not both.
Where do they get their management income? Isn’t that a fee that they charge the investor?
It’s a fee they charge an investor, but not necessarily common stock holders.
Examples:
In the case of ProLogis, they set up investment funds, where they take property that they have developed or purchased, and contribute it into a joint venture where there is a major institutional investor involved. In such cases, ProLogis continues to own some of the real estate (via their share of the venture), but the institution owns a lot of the real estate (via their share of the venture). In those cases, PLD continues to be the manager of the real property, and charges the joint venture a fee. That fee is essentially paid by a combination of the third-party institution, and PLD. So, if the JV is 50/50, then of a $2 Management Fee paid by the joint venture to PLD, PLD essentially pays itself $1 (I believe this is what is made up of the expense item of the same name), and the third party investor pays $1 (not common equity holders).
In 2013, they made $1.3 Billion of such contributions to vehicles like this (from their press release of 12/23/13).
On the same day, they announced a new joint venture with the Norwegian Government Pension Fund, where Norway will invest $1B into North American real estate with PLD as the manager. Norway is an example of one of the third parties that would pay part of this fee. PLD will retain 55% ownership of this Fund, and Norway will own 45%. So, if that new vehicle pays $10MM annually to PLD, PLD essentially pays $5.5MM to itself for management, and Norway essentially pays PLD $4.5MM.
There are similar stories elsewhere in REITdom.
DDR formed a JV with Blackstone earlier in 2013 (or was that 2012?), where DDR contributed 5% of the equity to the deal (and Blackstone put in 95%). DDR maintained management of all the assets…so, if $1 of management fee was paid to DDR corporate, $0.95 essentially came from Blackstone.
These big institutions leverage the management of the REITs that same way that you and I would through our ownership in the common stock.
Thanks for the window of insight! Appreciate it. Man, HBB is always an education.
I wouldn’t trust rents as a function of inflation, unless you are following very similar units in the same complex. How can you compare a 1970-era garden unit with one communal swingset to a Grade-A prettyyoungthing tower with granite countertop and laundry in-unit and a Whole Paycheck at street level. Or compare locations, especially since renters are more likely to need public transport. Or factor in the cost of parking. Or factor in the Section 8’s, military allowances, or various other cheesechecks. Or factor in that advertised move-in rates are artificially low because they now include what used to be a first-month-free; that rent will skyrocket for the second year.
Or factor in that rents for two-bed and three-bed units have skyrocketed compared to one-bed units. When I was in grad school, my one-bed rent was ~$470, and a two-bed was $540 or so. Then they figured out that you can fit two incomes in a two-bed, so the one-bed rose to $490 but the two-bed rose to $720. Therefore, I trust trends for one-bed units but not for other units. But now you can’t compare renting to owning, because there are few one-bed houses to compare to.
If you look over a large enough sample size, over long periods of time, and control for location and quality, I think you could get a pretty good measure of how rents have changed over time (and I’m certain they have gone up). It’s still an open question as to how they have done relative to inflation.
One place to look at this is with REIT reporting. They will often keep a consistent type of real estate in similar markets, and report rents over time.
One example (Annual Base Rent per square foot from DDR…taken from page 28 of their Q3 Financial Supplement):
1992: $5.37
1993: $5.60
1994: $5.89
1995: $7.60
1996: $7.85
1997: $8.49
1998: $8.99
1999: $9.20
2000: $9.66
2001: $10.03
2002: $10.58
2003: $10.82
2004: $11.13
2005: $11.30
2006: $11.90
2007: $12.54
2008: $12.60
2009: $13.01
2010: $13.36
2011: $13.81
2012: $13.66
Q3 2013: $14.00
All numbers are as of year end, except 2013.
If you believe that these are all similar pieces of real estate, then rents for the RE DDR owns have outpaced inflation. Plugging 5.37 into the CPI inflation calculator yields $8.92 as of 2013.
That said, I’m not convinced the quality with DDRs properties has stayed consistent…however, I would seriously doubt that the entire change in rents over the years can be explained UNLESS you include an assumption that inflation found its way into rents.
LOLZ.
You’re going believe their financial statements? And I suppose you believe their 10-k’s too…..
Foolish donkeys.
Here’s a list of historic rents from the Census bureau:
https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/grossrents.html
That’s more like it.
According to this then, median rents outpaced inflation over a period of many decades…I would have guessed they were largely in-line with inflation. Perhaps DDRs rents per foot are correct then…hmmmm.
But remember….. We’re in a deflationary spiral. Housing is price fixed.
It is pretty commonly known that living quarters have increased in size also from the 1940s to today. I wonder what the median rent per foot would be on an inflation-adjusted basis over that same timeframe?
It tracks housing prices like this here.
http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/7812/caseshiller.jpg
There’s census data on this. Adjusted for inflation using, rents are 110% higher today than in 1940.
But that’s impossible since HA assured me rents never increase.
“Why buy a house when you can rent it for half the monthly cost? Buy later after prices crater for 70% less.”
You’ve got that right Slithers.
It’s hilarious the way some of you guys worship this duck guy. First you want to praise him for being a homophobe, and now it turns out that he thinks girls should be married off at 15 or 16. Ah, but of course, the LOONIES who make the biggest mistakes of themselves have to call me a psycho.
Paging tj. TJ, are you there? And your little friends too.
I think he was advocating that men get married young too. It is an interesting clash we have between culture and biology. Obvious, we encourage women to have children when they are in their 30’s. However, we know that women over 35 stand a much higher chance of birth defects in their children and not being able to conceive. People that have children late also run into the problem that they have to care for children at the same time their parents need care. In the 1950’s people did have children young and because of this their parents were in a much better position to help them rear the children.
He is a product of the 1950’s and while you can reject his advice, to assume he is a loon because he thinks that it might make more sense to find a way to accommodate biology instead of fighting it, I think is hubris on your part. We have raised a generation that has so much self-esteem they think their way is the only way. Too bad statistically they perform far worse than the previous generations they think are idiots.
P.S. what do you think of Ruth Bader Ginsberg advocating for an age of consent of 12 when she was younger?
“we encourage women to have children when they are in their 30’s.”
There are a whole bunch of people in their 20’s who didn’t get this memo. Certainly, the more education one has, the more likely they are to postpone children until they are in their 30’s. But there’s a bunch of people whose education level didn’t impact their decision to have children.
Research has now shown that genetic abnormalities are more highly correlated with the age of the father than the age of the mother. Hence, we should encourage 15-year-old girls to mate with 12-year-old boys, to accomodate biology.
Research has now shown that genetic abnormalities are more highly correlated with the age of the father than the age of the mother.
Show me that study. There is a big difference between saying that a man’s age matters and saying that both a men and women should not conceive children after 35.
Look it up.
Look it up.
I have and there is no study that would worry about a 35 year old man having a baby, but there are plenty that admit that women at that age have the risk of birth defects significantly increased. You cannot back up your assertion so you try to shift the burden. The Politically Correct can never back up their assertions, that is why they need to censor people.
Dan:
Look more. Maybe even study some science or something. People used to automatically blame the woman when there was a problem with the baby, but then we learned how to study molecules and stuff, so now we know better. Sperms have worse genes than eggs, so boys should get married younger than girls, which would be younger than 15 in this case.
But studying science would make you a part of the uninformed left, so never mind. FORWARD!
Just show me a study that is using 35 year old males and not men in the upper 50’s and 60’s. BTW, I received college credit for an advanced placement test in science and scored in the high 700’s on a 800 SAT test. You also must have missed the part where studies have shown that people that question AGW know far more about climate than the people that believe in AGW.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/05/28/global-warming-skeptics-know-more-about-science-new-study-claims/
“study some science or something…”
According to my science teacher in the 60s, the problems are due to tight fitting Jeans.
According to my science teacher in the 60s, the problems are due to tight fitting Jeans.
Which problem? Tight fitting jeans have gotten many a women pregnant and caused as much performance problems for men as riding a bicycle. Is Joe in the house?
tight jeans on men silly. cooks the DNA.
BTW, he was advocating that you marry teenage girls because they will “pick your ducks” instead of picking your pockets. Having a child-bride is not unlike having a servant, you see.
I love to watch the inbred boyz of the interwebs trying to argue for this sort of thing. I wish U would keep in mind, however, that you make this blog look sort of bad in public. There are those who would disregard the macro-economic analysis that comes from these discussions, all based on the backward views of a few (male) commentators. I’m not sure why we don’t see such gawd-aweful comments coming from the female commentators. I guess girls just must be smarter than boys, I dunno.
BTW, no answer about Ginsburg?
I have no idea what you’re talking about, and it doesn’t matter. You are a duck guy, regardless of anything that Ginsburg may or may not have said or thought.
I have never watched the show. If you don’t know that Ginsburg advocated it in a proposed law she helped draft just showing your ignorance since it appeared everywhere but on MSNBC. So I guess we now know that is your exclusive source for “information”.
I have no idea what you’re talking about
Look it up.
http://www.volokh.com/posts/1127335040.shtml
Leave it to the left to worry about the thoughts of someone on a TV reality show but not know about the writings of a supreme court justice. Interesting priorities.
I was tempting to just say that but posted a different response. BTW, I do not consider you part of the uninformed left. I do not always agree with you but you do try to make your arguments with facts and a minimum of personal attacks.
No, I don’t feel like looking it up, since it doesn’t matter.
The opinion of a reality show figure matters but not that of a Supreme Court Justice? I guess if I need to know about DWTS, I will ask you but for anything of substance, I think it would be wise to ignore your comments.
But you were one of the people defending duck guy, and you still defend him, regardless of whether or not a Supreme Court justice ever said or thought anything. Duck guy’s opinions don’t accomodate biology. They just accomodate duck guy. Has nothing to do with any statements made by anyone else regarding similar matters.
Yes, ignoring me is best. You are only making yourself seem like a burd brane.
Yes, ignoring me is best. You are only making yourself seem like a burd brane.
I think duck guy could blow out half his brain in a hunting accident and still have twice the brains that you have.
How are the views of lefty supreme court justice vs a reality tv star supposed to be equivelent?
I think one could asssume that ginsburg would also vote & legislate for the social services that go along with marriage and children for couples who have never held jobs while duck guy would call the young parents of the offspring he advocated for lazy and chide them for taking his tax money.
There is nothing wrong with advocating having children at a young age exept for the issue of who is going to pay for them. To divorce these as separate issues is why your suggestion of the young ignoring his generations’ ‘intelligence’ is questionable at best.
How are the views of lefty supreme court justice vs a reality tv star supposed to be equivelent?
I do not think they are equivalent. Implicit in my point is we ignore the writings of a Supreme Court justice but worry about a reality show star’s views. There is clearly something wrong about that.
I think that his comments while made to be funny raise an interesting issue on how far you can deviate from biological time clocks. The comment about picking ones duck and picking ones pockets is more insightful than you want to admit. We seem to have a biological bond to our first lover. It is similar to the bond that a child forms with his parents. Fail to create that attachment or break that attachment too often and you may just create the next Ted Bundy. Similarly, too may relationships seem to impede not foster development of a long term relationships and leads to people treating people as disposal objects. I don’t think you will see nearly as many of the 40 to 50 year relationships that were reasonably common in duck guy’s generation.
“P.S. what do you think of Ruth Bader Ginsberg advocating for an age of consent of 12 when she was younger?”
And abortion on demand too for said 12 year old.
But on the other hand, a 26 year old is a “child” and can stay on mom’s health insurance plan according to Obamacare.
Liberal logic is fascinating.
May=many. BTW, duck guy has a 50 year marriage and the left wants to push the narrative that he disrespects women. How, many liberal Hollywood types dump their wives when they develop the first wrinkle? Duck guy is wealthier than most of them but also wise enough to stay with his first love.
Thank you for the compliment, a-dan.
While I appreciate the idealism that women aren’t supposed to be for rent, the truth is that many really are. The spectrum of women runs the entire gamut from maiden-in-distress to he-man; both homo- and heterosexual. Uncle Fed may demand respect, but other women are entirely willing to give that up in exchange for security, and many are just too dumb to care.
Oxide is not helping the cause.
She’s the epitome of helpless female.
Does anyone on this board think that house prices and/or stock prices will continue increasing until 2018?
Houses, only if price increases slow considerably in 2014 do they have a chance of rising until 2018.
Stocks, I’d be shocked if they continue to rise until 2018. My bet would be that there will be a correction at some point between now and then.
That’s the nature of inflation. It is very unlikely to be a straight trajectory, but there is a higher likelihood that the stock market will be higher in 2018 than it is now.
Somefing to contemplate: How often has turnover at the top of the Fed not led to downside market volatility over the next couple of years?
How can you tell that U.S. stocks are going to have another fantastic year in 2014? Look no further than the clueless Wall Street pessimists who believe otherwise.
U.S. stocks will do great so long as most would-be investors believe the exact opposite.
Wall Street’s bearishness indicates 18% gain for U.S. stocks in 2014
January 2, 2014, 2:53 PM
U.S. stocks slipped into the new year with a sharp decline that underscores the caution that most Wall Street strategists advise.
But to market analysts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Wall Street’s skepticism and recommendation that investors stay relatively light on stocks is a bullish sign.
The firm’s proprietary “Sell Side Indicator” — the average recommended equity allocation of Wall Street strategists — remained unchanged and squarely in “buy” territory in December, with Wall Street sages suggesting that investors commit 53.3% of their portfolio to U.S. stocks.
…
TO THE MOON!
Moon? Sorry, only men are allowed:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/space/07/13/moon.astronauts/
(JFWY)
That’s just a huge cover-up. None of those guys ever walked on the moon; that was a staged set made for the media to consume. In the meanwhile, NASA actually sent a highly trained team of women to walk all over that round thing. The media circus was to deflect your attention from the TRUTH!
The highly trained team of women still could not do three pullups.
Would now be a good time for dips to buy?
Would now be a good time for dips to buy?
It is a good time for dips to buy.
So much for the belief that expanding Medicaid will reduce costs associated with emergency rooms, of course these are the same people that call 911 when McDonalds fails to give them onion rings:
http://news.yahoo.com/study-finds-medicaid-expansion-drove-er-visits-190311748.html
Get ready for another Mexodus. The Economist magazine has flagged Mexico as “high risk” for social unrest in 2014.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/theworldin2014/2013/12/social-unrest-2014
This ranking went over like a lead balloon in the Mexican media. Apparently Mexicans are getting sick and tired of the perma-crime wave they’ve been experiencing for decades, which many are predicting will become worse this year.
Conn. Gun Registration Photo Foreshadows Confiscation
Infowars.com
January 1, 2014
A photo depicting gun owners in Connecticut waiting in line to register their firearms is sparking outrage, with one Twitter user claiming the scene “Looks like Weimar Germany.”
http://www.infowars.com/conn-gun-registration-photo-foreshadows-gun-confiscation/ - -
Email Confirms Bank Of America’s ‘Social Media Trolling’ Spy Team
“Bank of America has a team of 20 people and that’s all they do all day”
Mikael Thalen
Infowars.com
January 2, 2014
An email uncovered through a Washington state public records request has confirmed the existence of a Bank of America “social media trolling” spy team, used to carry out surveillance on multiple political groups.
Published by Washington state activist Andrew Hendricks, the email, dated September 23, 2013, details a conversation between Bank of America’s Global Corporate Security Vice President Kim Triplett-Kolerich, the Washington State Patrol (WSP) and one redacted recipient.
Discussing the then-upcoming Anonymous “Million Mask March” at the state’s capitol, Kolerich, who previously spent over 25 years in the Washington State Patrol, details the bank’s superior ability to track political groups.
“If you find any intel on Anarchists or Occupy Protesters please let me know – I will most likely find it first as Social Media trolling is not what the WSP does best,” Kolerich says. “Bank of America has a team of 20 people and that’s all they do all day and then pass it to us around the country!!”
Whether Kolerich is referring to a specific Washington state based team or the total number of paid “trolls” is unclear, though the possibility of multiple nationwide teams seems much more likely.
Comments made earlier in the email by Kolerich reveal the bank’s private history with law enforcement as well, specifically regarding previous and upcoming “intel” exchanges.
“May Day I will pick your brain for intel and I will give you a lot also,” Kolerich says. “The Public-Private partnership worked great last year and hopefully being ahead of the anarchists will protect all of you from protests/arrests/injury.”
Page 12 of the public records release, which details an October email exchange, also shows the bank’s relationship with the Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) as well as the state’s Homeland Security run Fusion Center.
“Sorry for not getting back to you sooner – hectic weeks lately with foreclosures and this MMM march,” Kolerich says. “We are not seeing much – I understand the WSP is ramping up but I haven’t checked with the Fusion Center and JTTF…”
The permitted three-hour protest, which drew around 100 peaceful protesters to the state’s capitol, was surveilled by multiple agencies as well as a fixed wing aircraft, costing taxpayers over $28,000.
While Kolerich can only be linked to law enforcement groups in Washington state, the likelihood of the bank sharing its spy data with countless agencies across the country is apparent.
This follows and gives even more validity to a major data release by Anonymous last year, where information on an unsecured server pointed to Bank of America’s spying as well.
Similar to the NSA’s collusion with private companies, the records release represents yet another example of the government using private groups to spy on Americans.
This post originally appeared at Story Leak
This article was posted: Thursday, January 2, 2014 at 5:48 am
Soon the NSA will be able to fund its activities by stealing bitcoins by breaking the encryption:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/nsa-seeks-to-build-quantum-computer-that-could-crack-most-types-of-encryption/2014/01/02/8fff297e-7195-11e3-8def-a33011492df2_print.html
Marc Faber ‘Congratulates’ Ben: “Well Done, Mr. Bernanke!”
Zero Hedge
January 2, 2014
In a little under four minutes, Marc Faber explains to Fox Business’ Dagen McDowell all that is wrong with the Central Planners ‘current plan.’ From a re-bubbled housing ‘recovery’ pricing real buyers out of the market (“homes do not offer a great opportunity today”) to forced-renters paying increasing amounts of their stagnant wages, and the small percentage of ordinary Americans who actually benefit from a rising stock market, reducing their disposable income to which Faber sarcastically rants “well done, Mr. Bernanke.” His advice, be diversified, don’t BTFATH in stocks, and physical gold is always a good insurance.
http://www.infowars.com/marc-faber-congratulates-ben-well-done-mr-bernanke/ -
It is a job well done. I will be sad to see him leave.
My 2014 prediction about Iraq is happening with warp speed:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/01/02/343375/major-oil-pipeline-in-n-iraq-bombed/
Did I miss something, or did the U.S. stock market already have a (near) 30% meltup?
I guess there is no rule that says lightning can’t strike twice on Wall Street.
ft dot com
January 2, 2014 6:01 pm
2014 outlook: Market melt-up
By John Authers
US stocks may be overpriced and profit margins at a high but even bears say the rally has room to run
American stocks look very expensive. Are they in a bubble? The S&P 500 has gained almost two-thirds since September 2011, a period in which its companies’ earnings have risen just 18 per cent. It is easy to see why many fear the bull market has gone too far.
Will the S&P 500 be higher or lower one year from today?
But few believe that a market fall is imminent. Instead, the talk is of a potential “melt-up” in which shares build into a bubble that eventually bursts. Jeremy Grantham, founder of the GMO fund management group in Boston, says: “My guess is that the US market, especially the non-blue-chips, will work its way higher, perhaps by 20-30 per cent in the next year or, more likely, two years, with the rest of the world, including emerging market equities, covering even more ground in at least a partial catch-up. And then we will have the third in the series of serious market busts since 1999.”
…
LOL.
Go see GMO’s web site. And then ask yourself, would I take advice from a company that has this website? Looks like a 10 year old built it.
Perhaps that’s the BEST reason to listen, despite GMOs admittedly NON-slick website, they manage $100B of assets.
Jeremy Grantham is generally considered a REALLY damn smart guy, especially when it comes to value investing, and picking out bubbles.
And for comparison, here is Berkshire Hathaway’s website:
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/
Who is this “Warren Buffett” guy anyway? It looks like the 10-year old who did GMO’s website has a 7-year old little sister, who did Berkshire Hathaway’s website.
Clearly, both Buffett and Grantham should be completely ignored…based on their website.
I heard this company called “Enron” has a really great website…
Have you seen the Barbie website? It makes it hard not to buy a doll. Why all this talk about Enron and GMO? Can’t you see (from the website) that BARBIE is the one to ask?
Here is GMO’s Q3 letter. I will read tonight. After a brief review, I think I’ll add this to my quarterly read…
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GMO_QtlyLetter_ALL_3Q2013.pdf
You know, you’re right. Aside from Barbie’s good looks, that Ken guy has GREAT hair. With hair that good, he MUST be right.
It will get on my nerves very much if the stock market keeps going up for another two years. I would like to be able to buy some stocks at a long-term reasonable price. Even better if they give me some dividends too.