The Housing Bubble

the FED wont let it end this time will they?

“This mania may never end.”

Sure seems that way, sigh. However, I’m in agreement with Whac’s assessment of the situation. And although it’s been a crazy ride, I always recall Charles Hugh Smith’s chart on bubbles, which foretells 2014 as the year the bottom arrives.

2014. The magic, tragic year. I get a sense people sort of know it, too.

You mean this one?

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug06/post-bubble-symmetry.html

So house prices are at 1994 prices now, and will reach the “bottom” next year at prices lower than 1994. Riight.

No.

Housing prices are still at the fraudulently inflated levels because of price fixing.

How many times does it need to be explained to you?

“Housing prices are still at the fraudulently inflated levels because of price fixing.

How many times does it need to be explained to you?”

Jeebus, I’m tellin’ ya. It’s very possible we’ll see the 2014 phenomenon in that chart, with everything happening all at once that would have been happening more gradually over the years, if it wasn’t for price fixing. In other words, CRASH! And that’s a whole lot worse than what might have been.

No question. The decline is a process, not an event. It’s merely been delayed as a result of all the foreclosure moratoriums and shadow inventory management(manipulation).

Ah, but there are always unknowns, black swans. The best laid plans of mice and men and all that.

This may be true but if one is depending on a black swan to alight and make his financial world whole then most likely he will end up being screwed.

Ths odds are with the trend of globalization being extended not drawn in.

I may not be able to post much today but I found an article about China and gold that is on goldseek.com. It talks about the trade that has worked the best is long gold short China this year. An excerpt from the article:

That said the US Mint sold 56,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in December, the most since June and contributing to a 14 per cent gain in annual sales. Those Chinese aunties have also been voracious buyers, no doubt sensing that a downturn was coming in their own economy as they suffocated under a cloud of smog.

What comes next in the Middle Kingdom is an old fashioned credit squeeze, exactly like 2007-8 in the US housing market. The government has prolonged the boom in infrastructure investment for as long as it can but there is a limit always to the expansion of credit that an economy can handle.

China’s credit expansion to $24 trillion from $9 trillion in five years is unprecedented in economic history and easily the largest bubble ever created in financial markets (click here). It is bigger than the banking systems of the US and Japan combined.

George Soros is among many hedge funds managers warning that China is the biggest risk in the global economy today. Chinese journalists are being instructed not to write negative stories (click here). Long gold, short China could be the winning trade for the whole year.

This may be true but if one is depending on a black swan to alight and make his financial world whole then most likely he will end up being screwed.

Likely true if that’s Zeus under there; hehe.

George Soros is among many hedge funds managers warning that China is the biggest risk in the global economy today ??

Michael Spence said a month ago that if China drops below 7% GDP watch out…I believe their last disclosed GDP number was 7.5%…Now we are seeing manufacturing slow down…

The PTB seem to engage in another attack on gold today with a massive sell order causing gold to drop $30 an ounce and halting trading for ten seconds. However, gold then popped back up and is currently in the green. The paper vs. physical contest is still going on but physical seems to be winning. As the sage investor, Olivia Newton John said, lets get physical.

Michael Spence said a month ago that if China drops below 7% GDP watch out…I believe their last disclosed GDP number was 7.5%…Now we are seeing manufacturing slow down…

That’s the problem with being “the world’s factory”. When the world buys less because it’s broke … you have a problem.

Joblessness At 7 Year Highs

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

If all the proposed minimum wage hikes occur, then, yes, we’ll see wages increase. All of a sudden you’ll have unskilled workers vying with semi and skilled/experienced workers as the pay is the same (by government decree). Businesses will be forced to adjust their pay scales.

Or course, they will just cut more staff and pass on price increases to account for the increased pay scales…

Raising the minimum wage will not allow people to buy houses but might help them make their rent. The big boys have invested a lot in buying rental units. I am sure it is just a coincidence that government now wants to raise the minimum wage but not adopt policies that would create a general wage increase like limiting immigration instead of encouraging it.

Or course, they will just cut more staff and pass on price increases to account for the increased pay scales…

Or they can much narrow the wage gap between the 1% and the 99% as we had until the false, failed religion of “Trickle-down” ruined the middle-class.

This is not theory anymore. This is not 1981, but 2014. This is now American economic history.

This is not theory anymore. This is not 1981, but 2014.

Yes in 1981 we had a leader with a real plan to restore prosperity and it worked. Today, we have an idiot community organizer without a clue.

Yes in 1981 we had a leader with a real plan to restore prosperity and it worked.

You are ignoring long-term historical and economic trends. Yes, trickle-down worked for awhile. We still had an American economic base that Reaganomics had not destroyed yet. Reagan tripled the debt and began the policies that turned us into a Banana Republic.

Now after 33 years of Reaganesque economic policies that funnel money from everyone else to the rich, our middle-class is gutted like a fish.

It was a false religion and voodoo economics.

History will compare the economic records of Obama and Reagan and Obama will not fare well, you can rant all you want to but Reagan will have as much growth in just two years of his eight years as Obama will have over eight.

History will compare the economic records of Obama and Reagan and Obama will not fare well,

Obama will fare OK because he inherited 33 years of Republicanesque economic policy. (Including Clinton’s)

Reagan’s supply-side, off-shoring, funnel money only to the rich was the beginning of our current 33 year experiment with the Repub’s now-proven-to-have-failed trickle-down/deregulation “philosophy”.

Obama will be known for his “Trickle up Poverty”.

Raising the min wage won’t do anything except create inflation.

Worker A today gets $7/hr has no skills

Worker B today gets $14/hr has Skill X

If tomorrow worker A gets $15/hr, guess what happens to worker B? He gets $30/hr since is value is 2X that of Worker A.

And guess what happens to the prices of the goods/services produced by both workers? They double.

So everyone has just got a 100% raise, but everything they buy is 100% more expensive.

HOORAY FOR LIBERALISM!!

LOL Rio, I guess blaming Bush is no longer enough, now you have to blame Reagan for Obama’s failures. What’s next? Coolidge?

Strange coming from a federal reserve loving inflationista LIEberal like you Slithers.

^
How predictable.

(Including Clinton’s) ??

Yes and its important to remember that…Clinton signed NAFTA and its has all come unbuttoned from there…NAFTA opened the gates to be in a race to the bottom line and made it acceptable to gut our middle class by outsourcing and offshoring anything and everything we could…Perot was spot-on…That Giant sucking sound is all our good jobs disappearing…

So now we are left with the simmering ashes of those decisions with a whole generation of people that are asking why we did it…

I guess blaming Bush is no longer enough, now you have to blame Reagan for Obama’s failures.

OK, then think and tell me something. What was Obama been able to do to reverse America’s current 33 year experiment with the Repub’s now-proven-to-have-failed trickle-down/deregulation “philosophy”?

What has Obama been able to accomplish in battling America’s 33 years of massively growing wealth and income inequality?

And who’s ideas was it to put America on our 33 year path of the above failed economic policies? Was it Obama’s? Or was it Reagan and the Repubs 33 years ago?

If you think the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush years were on the whole bad economically speaking you’re so out of touch with reality there’s really no point in having a discussion with you.

If you think the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush years were on the whole bad economically speaking you’re so out of touch with reality there’s really no point in having a discussion with you.

You’re not looking at it objectively or long-term. We are now reaping what we sowed during the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush years. This is mostly the result of 33 years of the process, not just the result of the current continued process.

If you can’t understand that the now-proven-to-have-failed polices followed for 33 years have the consequences that we are feeling today then…. “you’re so out of touch with reality there’s really no point in having a discussion with you.”

Ohbewanna’s legacy will be the Death of Political correctness…..due to his incompetence….and we will see black people convicted of racial hate crimes…finally.

The stock market crowd loves Obama, greatest returns ever!

I really doubt it ??

I would agree but I do think the wage gap and underemployment issues have some traction politically…

I do not see any forces in place presently which could trend wages up. High house prices cannot cause higher wages, that would be a sky hook.

In the aftermath of the largest expansion of credit in history, it is probable that we will experience the largest contraction in history. Deflation will not produce higher wages or maintain extraordinarily high house prices.

“I’ll take effects of unchecked illegal immigration for $800 Alex….”

OK, now that’s just too funny right there, I don’t care who y’are.

“OK, now that’s just too funny right there, I don’t care who y’are.”

+1 Yeah, that was pretty good for an evil successful white guy. Polarization is needed to end up near the center at the end of the day.

What’s next from you Slithers…… Ocean front condos in Kansas?

Why aren’t you out teaching your kid to ski on your own private mountaintop outside your back door?

Janet,

Not much snow.

I still don’t get why it’s so hard for you people to fathom a hill that can be used to teach a child how to ski. Google it, you’ll see tons of people who do just that.

There is life outside the 1 bedroom apartment people. Believe me.

But Little Lola,

Do tell us how to teach a child to downhill ski in Atlanta.

We anxiously await your response.

Maybe not so far fetched…

Updated: 6:54 p.m. Monday, Jan. 6, 2014 | Posted: 10:54 a.m. Monday, Jan. 6, 2014
Atlanta Weather | Sub-zero wind chills in overnight, morning forecast

ATLANTA —

Metro Atlanta is preparing for the coldest night it has seen in 18 years. Severe Weather Team 2 has been monitoring the forecast as wind chills could dip as low as minus 30 in extreme north Georgia in the mountains.

As of 6 p.m. Monday Blairsville, Ga., was only at 8 degrees.

“We have a very storing northwesterly wind between 15 and 25 mph. That will continue throughout the night tonight. And that will create some very cold wind chill temperatures,” said Severe Weather Team 2 chief meteorologist Glenn Burns.
…

But we all know that NASA is nothing more than a bunch of fraudsters who faked the moon landings. So why listen to them?

And we also know that the Earth is actually flat. And Moses rode around on a dinosaur.

An abstract from one that I believe I read in 1983 but I do not want to pay the $42 I would need to confirm that fact:

Abstract

Empirical evidence indicates that the magnitude of global warming to be expected from the relase of CO2 into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels has been greatly overestimated by scientists employing general circulation models of the atmosphere. Indeed, real-world data suggest that increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 are actually to be desired, as they have no significant climatic ramifications but tend to promote greater water use efficiency and productivity in the world’s natural and managed forests, crops and rangelands.

Actually the 97% is a totally bogus number

No. It is not “bogus” when one understands scientific method and consensus. Look at the above list again under the NASA site. And it’s only a partial list of “Scientific Organizations That Hold the Position That Climate Change Has Been Caused by Human Action”.

Find me a similar list that supports your side. You can’t come close.

And your “1100+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm” don’t come close to the gravitas of my list because if your papers were “peer-reviewed” they would have been reviewed by many of the same people involved in the research of NASA’s list above. And therefore, using scientific method, your “skeptic argument’s” did not come close to tipping the scientific balance of opinion below.

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27,

But the scientific fact that despite what the models predicted we have not had global warming in 17 years means that they have been wrong no matter how you and they try to spin it. Sorry I know had badly Brazil wants the money but U.S. taxpayers are not going to shell out tens of billions of dollars for global warming transfers when they are freezing their azzes off. Since the US is about to have a January thaw, you can raise the issue again. But the other fact that the AGW crowd cannot get around is that we were warmer 110,000 years ago than we are now. Actually, most interglacial periods are warmer than this one. Thus, even if we were to warm further it would not end the debate until we actually go above the normal interglacial periods which is about 2 degrees Celsius higher than now. I am sure that the people that cooked this hoax up knew that but they have been caught with their pants down by the sun going dormant. But of course as HA has said you can relate to having your pants down.

But the scientific fact that despite what the models predicted we have not had global warming in 17 years means that they have been wrong no matter how you and they try to spin it.

No, you are wrong. An it’s because you don’t think scientifically or long-term. Take a look at this NASA/NOAA chart. We see a rising trend of over 110 years of temperature rising. It’s like a stock chart. Your “17 years” does not break the trend. The trend is strong and is in place. Your “17 years” is noise and well withing the 110 year uptrend in temps.

Look again at this chart at the top of the page:

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

110 years is nothing, look at the chart for 110,000 years, I posted yesterday how to obtain it. We are cooler than 110,000 years ago. Moreover, even in the 110 year chart why did most of the global warming occur prior to China going from burning less than one billion tons of coal to burning 3.8 billion tons per year, the warming should have accelerated according to the theory not stopped in its tracks?

110 years is nothing, look at the chart for 110,000 years,

Think scientifically. 110 years is not “nothing” when it coincides exactly with the exponential and massive increase in man-made pollution.

Besides, you totally contradict yourself when you keep pointing to “17 years of no temperature change” and then say 110 years “means nothing”. So, 110 years “means nothing” but you hang your hat on your much less 17 years? Really? What American University’s scientific grad study program does that thinking come from?

Your “logic” driven by politics does not compute.

No, I am saying that if you use only 110 years of data than 17 years is very significant but if you use 110,000 years than 100 years is nothing. It is less than .1% of the entire data sample. Where as 17 years is about 15% of the data very significant. You like to attack me for not being able to do the math but it is you that is so driven by politics you cannot do the math or understand the science.

Where as 17 years is about 15% of the data very significant.

Look at the NASA/NOAA chart posted above again. Your “17 years” is well within the upper and lower bands of the rising 110 year uptrend in temperature. Your “17 years” does not break the trend to the downside as did none of the previous and numerous drops within the trend bands.

So if your 15% of the data is “very significant” as you just said, and it does not break the upward trend, than your 17 years reinforces the significance of the upward trend in temperatures and does not weaken it.

“So if your 15% of the data is “very significant” as you just said, and it does not break the upward trend, than your 17 years reinforces the significance of the upward trend in temperatures and does not weaken it.”

Complete nonsense. If your theory is increased co2 emissions causes global warming and the amount of co2 emitted soars but the temperature stays the same, time to admit that the rise in temperature was primarily natural.

“Science” is socialist, European, and probably gay.

And my granddaddy ain’t no monkey:

http://creationmuseum.org/

And my granddaddy ain’t no monkey:

What about your grandmother? You never mention her.

This latest freeze is the final nail the global warming hoax. Tell someone right now in the midwest that the earth is warming to a dangerous level and see the reaction.

You can fool some of the people all the time, but when it’s -50 outside it’s hard to fool them into thinking it’s too hot outside.

This latest freeze is the final nail the global warming hoax.

This latest freeze in the MidWest? “latest freeze”?

Wow. You really understand science huh?

hard to fool them into thinking it’s too hot outside.

Trust me. It’s too outside today imo.

What about your grandmother? You never mention her.

She had a great personality.

“Trust me. It’s too outside today imo.”

Resist we much!

Poor Rio, Obamacare is a complete disaster and the global warming hoax is over. I’d be a blithering mess as well if I were a far left loon.

Poor Rio, Obamacare is a complete disaster and the global warming hoax is over. I’d be a blithering mess as well if I were a far left loon.

I know, Obama lied about Obamacare and within a few years it will be clear that he lied about global warming. The liar in chief, will go down as the biggest liar and most incompetent president ever.

Obamacare is a complete disaster

I guess not all of you got the RNC memo.

Now that ObamaCare is proving to not be a complete disaster, (and it’s not and won’t) the new Repub meme will be that it’s implementation “is not fair”, “illegal” or that Obama “pulled a fast one”.

We all need to keep up.

‘the RNC memo’

I think you’re a paid troll. The RNC is doing everything they can to keep the tea party from taking on Obamacare. Remember, I pointed out to you that you were on the side of Karl Rove and John McCain?

You have no credibility on this issue. You deny the undeniable, flail around, changing subjects mid-sentence. You’re getting boring with this stuff.

I think you’re a paid troll…You have no credibility

I don’t understand how those two can reconcile. But I’m not a paid troll. I think paid trolls troll on huge blogs that have a lot of idiots.

You deny the undeniable,

As in what? That Obamacare is a “complete disaster”. Complete disaster to whom?

You’re on a huge blog. The Number #1 Housing Blog on the planet. We have a few idiots and a few who pretend to be idiots. You’re the latter.

We have a few idiots and a few who pretend to be idiots. You’re the latter.

On this I have to disagree. Rio/Lola does not pretend to be an idiot, he is genuine idiot. Probably paid to post idiotic links but he believes them so he has earned his idiot status.

Rio/Lola does not pretend to be an idiot, he is genuine idiot.

Now think a little, and think objectively and scientifically.

If Rio/Lola were an idiot, how could he shake you up so much - get you all flustered? Why? An idiot is so threatening to your self-esteem and points of view? Then you must not believe in yourself or your points of view.

How could an “idiot” get you to respond so many times with your psudo-science Koch Bros nonsense and then lose your cool?

You need to look the word idiot. I don’t think it means what you think it means.

No. Lola is just pretends to be an idiot. A genuine idiot won’t spiral out of control when trolled.

Paid for by Koch and publicized by Drudge.

Another excerpt from climate4you:

The past temperature changes show little (if any) relation to the past atmospheric CO2 content as shown in the lower panel of figure 3. Initially, until around 7000 yr before now, temperatures generally increase, even though the amount of atmospheric CO2 decreases. For the last 7000 years the temperature generally has been decreasing, even though the CO2 record now display an increasing trend. Neither is any of the marked 950-1000 year periodic temperature peaks associated with a corresponding CO2 increase. The general concentration of CO2 is low, wherefore the theoretical temperature response to changes in CO2 should be more pronounced than at higher concentrations, as the CO2 forcing on temperature is decreasing logarithmic with concentration. Nevertheless, no net effect of CO2 on temperature can be identified from the above diagram, and it is therefore obvious that significant climatic changes can occur without being controlled by atmospheric CO2. Other phenomena than atmospheric CO2 must have had the main control on global temperature for the last 11,000 years.

He better be in Rio since it is not great weather to have your pants around your ankles in DC.

There it is. You lose. I’ve noticed something with you Albuquerquedan. You never come out with such nonsense until I’ve scientifically and logically crushed you in debate. If anyone doubts they can follow today’s sequence of our conversation.

I think you actually try to keep your cool. And you kept your cool biting your tongue for a good while until my support of my points became too much for you. You had no valid points or logic to counter them and you broke and resorted to 8th grade inanities as you often do.

It is amusing but pathetic. Sorry. But carry on please.

You never come out with such nonsense until I’ve scientifically and logically crushed you in debate. If anyone doubts they can follow today’s sequence of our conversation.

It must be so nice to be the sole decider on whether you won a debate. I provided factual information actual data to support my position, you just tried to assert a majority of scientists support your position. Even if were true and it is not, hard science is not political contest, the most popular theory does not win, the theory with the data supporting it wins.

P.S. it is you that started the ad hominem attacks on people so we had fun re3sponding in kind. You once said the Lola jokes did not bother you but your constant objecting to them shows, as most of us figure out, is that that claim was just one more lie in a series of lies. You are just a paid political hack and the board treats you like one.

It must be so nice to be the sole decider on whether you won a debate.

Not even. I’m not the “sole decider”. I have 97% of the scientific world behind me. Did you see NASA’s compiled list above of almost 100% of the entire world’s respected and accomplished institutions? They, using science and data have decided the issue.

And it is “so nice” to have such consensus supporting my opinion.

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27,

You once said the Lola jokes did not bother you but your constant objecting to them shows

I don’t object. They show that that I touch a nerve. Especially when you do it because it’s telling. You only do it after I get the best of you.

You are just a paid political hack and the board treats you like one.

I’m “treated” such because I rile up only the far right because I scare them. They know I am convincing to those in the middle. Why? Because I know what I’m talking about and express it well. “Hacks” would just be ignored as I ignore HA. And there is a tool for that. The Joshua tree extension.

you that started the ad hominem attacks

That is a lie by the levels of ad hominem attacks.

I’ve only questioned your logic, thinking, objectivity, your obvious bigotry or understanding of trends and science.

I’ve never stooped as low as you to something as odious as portraying myself as a ra$ist or a bigot.

Because I know what I’m talking about and express it well.

You need to get back on your medications, the delusions have come back.

“I’ve never stooped as low as you to something as odious as portraying myself as a ra$ist or a bigot.”

Yes because refuting political correctness and stating facts is racist.

Yes because refuting political correctness and stating facts is racist.

No. That’s not it Albuquerquedan. And you know it.

You well go over any lines of mere “left-wing” “political correctness”, while trying to hide behind the lie of merely “stating facts”.

It’s pathetic.

…. and turning tricks in Yonkers.

Finally, the AGW scientists knew they were cooked due to the pause years ago. That is why they tried so hard to prevent anyone talking about the pause. Unlike you they were smart enough to understand how their whole theory was undermined by the pause. The Climategate e-mails demonstrate that they knew the importance of the pause even if you are not smart enough to understand. The fact that the pause has continued for years after the pause only increases the importance of the pause and the severing of link between co2 and the warming that occurred between 1975 and 1998.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/24/the_fix_is_in_99280.html

The difference between .8 Celsius and 1 degree Celsius in 25% why are you overstating it when you have the number right in front of you?

You said “We have warmed about 1 degree F since 1880.”

But in fact you are off by 40%:
“The average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880.”

I did not have the number in front of me.

OK Mr. Science. And I said “about” too. I don’t think you know the difference between F and C temps.

So you admit that natural fluctuations can be as much as five degrees, kind of makes that 1.4 F pale in comparison.

On the contrary, 1.4 F in a little over 130 years when the up trend is firmly in place can lead to much greater devastation than we’ve seen the past few years. It’s the TRENDS again and this is a quick trend up.

I believe in science over politics. I don’t even care if the 3rd world gets money because of it. We could take that money and invest in ourselves to become more energy efficient. But my feelings either way do not change the facts of the science.

“the facts of the science”

…amongst the things missing from your toolbox.

… which is why I think La Jolla or SF don’t have that much in common with Sacramento or Stockton. People from all over the world want to live in La Jolla/SF. Thus the shape of the demand curve for La Jolla is significantly different than for Sacramento. There are many people who would move to La Jolla if prices fell into their “affordable range”. OTOH, most people would not want to live in Sacramento or Stockton even if the houses were far cheaper. Just like people haven’t moved to Detroit for the “cheap housing” (virtually free in many cases).

“I wouldn’t mind living in La Jolla.”

+1 And I’ll mow your lawn for $80k/yr.

There were 300 homes sold recently in Stockton (4 months of inventory, even including pre-market listings).

There were 1,284 homes sold in a month recently in San Diego (January 2013 was 1,282).

Even based on your “low demand” assertion, there is little inventory…are the low sales because of low demand? Or because of few homes listed for sale?

If that were the case there wouldn’t be anything for sale.

The cratering demand is reality in spite of plenty of inventory available. Nobody wants it at that price even though prices are crumbling.

Homes are not like apples at a grocery store. You can’t simply walk in, buy them, and walk out. There is an escrow process, and reasonable marketing time, which means the number of homes listed for sale will always be above zero in any given reasonably sized market.

If you take out the “pre-market” homes in Stockton (ie. not even on the market), there are 393 homes listed for sale in the whole city (according to Zillow). At a sales pace of 300 per month, this is very tight inventory, not “plenty”.

Similar story in San Diego, there are 2,475 homes listed for sale (not “pre-market”). Sales in November were 1,284. There is not “plenty” there either.

That would be called “in contract” which is never part of inventory count.

And why one “take out pre-market” for any other reason than to distort the outcome? You’d excel a place like Madoffs’ organization.

Then once the excess empty inventory numbered in the thousands is “put in”, we’re talking an inventory increase in orders of magnitude.

I DIDN’T take out the “pre-market” inventory in my initial post, and it showed 3-4 months of inventory (still a seller’s market by common measures).

However, including homes that can’t even be put into contract is very conservative (and even misleading) if you are trying to determine whether the current level of sales indicates strong or weak demand.

You speak as though the number of sales and number of homes on the market are independent of one another.

If the home is “pre-market”, it can’t be put into contract and sold, and thus THAT particular home NOT selling shouldn’t be an indicator of weak demand.

Taken to an extreme…if there are 1,000 homes “pre-market”, and 1 listed for sale, you cannot draw any conclusions about the demand being weak because there is only 1 sale.

That is simply idiotic.

Here is the fact pattern in Stockton.

Homes are closing at a pace of 300 per month (most recent data);
There are just under 400 homes to choose from (ie. homes available to put under contract);
The median sale to list price ratio is over 1; and
Actual sales prices per square foot and median sales prices are both going up much faster than inflation on a M-o-M, Q-o-Q, and Y-o-Y basis.

And your conclusion is that demand is weak?

It seems pretty clear to me that current demand is not being met.

Sure you did. And you did it to get to your desired outcome which is a falsehood. Inventory trend is ALWAYS the indicator of demand or lack of it. To suggest otherwise is patently dishonest but that’s is precisely what you did. In Stockton’s case, it’s a moot point considering the 5 year trend in sales(demand) is collapsing. In fact it collapsed 24% YoY to date.

See for yourself:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Stockton-home-value/r_7266/#metric=mt%3D24%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D8%26r%3D7266%252C268591%252C268577%252C417220%26el%3D0
Now the collapsing demand in Stockton makes all the sense considering prices have skyrocketed to grossly inflated levels and right now are trading at a 110% premium over reproduction costs.

So, when sales begin to rise because there are more homes being built (and thus more people can sell to move up, etc.), will you start touting how demand is spiking?

By the way, don’t expect it anytime soon in Stockton…very few new homes are being built there (not much left in the way of approved lots). In places like Indio, CA, I expect there will be a significant increase in new home construction this year–lots of approved lots…let’s watch that market, shall we?

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Indio-home-value/r_45878/

There you go, collapsing sales, and thus, according to you “collapsing demand”.

But there are a few subdivisions in aggregate totaling over 1,000 homes set to begin construction and sales this year…let’s see what happens…shall we?

K Hovnanian Four Seasons at Terra Lago and Trilogy at the Polo Club by Shea are a couple of big projects that are starting in 2014.

If demand is truly terrible, then these developments will fall flat on their face. If sales are being held back by supply, then they’ll do just fine, and sales will increase in Indio.

Higher transactions isn’t higher demand?

“RentalWatch”, what planet do you live on?

Higher transactions is higher transactions, not necessarily higher demand.

Lower transactions is lower transactions, not necessarily lower demand.

When Apple was selling out iPods and iPhones because they hadn’t ramped up production, no one was equating the number of transactions with demand. Sales were restricted based on the inventory available to sell.

Demand is more complicated than simply counting the number of sales.

If you had low numbers of sales in conjunction with flat prices, I would say that demand is weak. Low numbers of sales in conjunction with prices that are rising quickly is a completely different story.

Low sales is low demand irrespective of price.

Here is my list with details Whac for Stockton…I’ve saved these as “favorites” on Zillow so I can check back easily. I’ll try to remember to post updates monthly to see how long these 10 take to work their way through the system.

2414 Otto Drive: Pre-Foreclosure as of 1/6/14, NOD served 4/3/13, Notice of Sale with auction scheduled 12/12/13 (OneWest Bank FSB is lender)

6141 Lorraine Avenue: Pre-Foreclosure as of 1/6/14, NOD served 11/13/13 (Wells Fargo is Lender)

4515 Burnham Circle: Pre-Foreclosure as of 1/6/14, NOD served 12/19/13 (JPM Chase is the lender)

1430 N Lincoln: Pre-Foreclosure as of 1/6/14, NOD served 8/24/11, Notice of Sale scheduled 12/17/13 (Aurora Loan Services, Inc. was Lender)

814 Lever Blvd, Pre-Foreclosure as of 1/6/14, NOD served 1/3/14 (Loan issued by Blanca Mendoza–seems like private loan?)

629 El Camino Ave, Foreclosed as of 1/6/14, NOD served 3/5/12, Home was Foreclosed 8/28/13, taken back by bank (Aurora Bank made loan, Aurora Bank took property back)

4301 Maddie Circle, Foreclosed as of 1/6/14, NOD served 4/30/12, Home was Foreclosed and taken back by the bank on 9/5/12 (BofA made loan, BofA took property back)

4459 La Cresta Way, Foreclosed as of 1/6/14, Home was taken back by lender on 12/12/13 (No bank noted as lender, loan was only $25k)

1754 S Lincoln, Foreclosed as of 1/6/14, NOD on 4/20/13, home was taken back bay bank on 12/6/13 (Ocwen Loan Servicing made loan and took property back)

3122 Cortona, Foreclosed as of 1/6/14, NOD served 2/6/08, lender (no bank or servicer named) took back property on 6/19/08 (Lender name either not given, or called “Not Given”)

4.4 million excess, empty defaulted houses is ALOT?

And prices are massively inflated and falling.

Get over it and get on with your life.

usual =unusual

The Colorado is usually brown and muddy.

Uh … not really. I remember seeing it blue plenty of times. Seeing it brown and muddy in the summer really stood out to me.

I guess it may depend on where you see it. It always seems muddy to me but I see it from Moab south.

I guess it may depend on where you see it.

Perhaps. I usually see it when driving to Grand Junction. This past summer was the brownest I’ve ever seen it. The volume seemed on the low side too, but then again Lakes Powell and Mead are very low too these days.

I was fly fishing in Grand junction in October. The river seemed pretty clean.

Like I said, good old desert living.

I’m sure it will survive, it’ll just look a lot more like northern Mexico.

a little vinegar will kill the smell….

if it’s yellow, let it mellow”

You know it is interesting when I was working on some water law cases, I found out that you could determine whether water had been on the surface during the open air atomic tests. This was hundreds of miles from the test site. Depending on the radioactivity you could determine whether ground water had been recharged in the 1950’s and early 1960s. I wonder what following the Fukushima plume will teach us about currents.

Yep, drop kick me Jeebus through the moving goalposts of the ACA.

CAR/NAR goal noted.

Guess the message needs to be spelled out for your pea-sized brain: your comment was crude, crass, insulting and completely beyond the bounds of human decency.

Do you get it now?

“It won’t for several reasons, one of them being a set of protections embedded in the law itself called “risk corridors and reinsurance,” which compensate insurance companies that wind up with a sicker customer base in the first three years of the law’s operation”

Only Rio would consider that the bail out of major insurance companies by the federal government using our tax dollars is a good thing.

You’ve never seen that before?

I don’t believe you.

“If Ben doesn’t ban you for this, I suppose he never will.”

Whaddya you care what the blogger does and doesn’t ban people for? It’s his blog and he pays for it. Unless you’re trying to call him out, which is downright ungrateful.

many Republicans would rather have Obamacare die a slow death,

See? Even you are changing your tune as expected. A couple months and weeks ago you were opining on repeal, and how not enough younger people will sign up (Rasmussen anyone?) and how it would threaten the whole system

Now, “many Republicans would rather have Obamacare die a slow death”. That’s quite a change but not surprising.

Obamacare is considered the greatest gift that Republicans have received in decades

We shall see about “gifts” shan’t we.

Obamacare Medicaid Split Creates Two Americas for Poor

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-06/obamacare-medicaid-split-creates-two-americas-for-poor.html

….Election Advantage
The Medicaid fight offers hope for Democrats whose 2014 election chances took a hit from the embarrassing October rollout of the insurance exchanges, said Ed Rendell, the former Pennsylvania governor and ex-chairman of the Democratic National Committee. In states like Florida and Pennsylvania, Medicaid may make a difference in governor’s races, he said.

“You’re telling people who don’t have health care now that you can give it to them, and that’s something that can get people off their duffs and turn out the vote,” Rendell said in a telephone interview.

“Romney, bahh!”

I was told a year ago on this very blog that my primary vote for Ron Paul and general election vote for Gary Johnson were “stolen” from Mitt Romney.

How about leaving politics behind for once and doing the right thing?

How? I think giving 40 million uninsured access to insurance is doing the right thing. It was politics that did it. So how can I “leave politics behind” on this issue?

Socialists have been wanting this for decades.

“Socialists” have been wanting something like the ACA’s gift to private insurance companies?

‘Only 35% of those questioned in the poll say they support the health care law

Much of that is because a larger percentage of American’s still want a single payer system ie much more liberal than the ACA

why can’t they see how much suffering it’s causing

Why didn’t the Repubs care when 45,000 Americans die every year because they had no insurance? Why don’t the Republican Govs “care” about the thousands who will die because they chose to not expand MediCaid? Who is going to tell them to put politics behind for once and do the right thing?

“‘Only 35% of those questioned in the poll say they support the health care law, ”

65% of Americans are racis

There’s an interesting paragraph in that article:

According to the survey, 43% say they oppose the health care law because it is too liberal, with 15% saying they give the measure a thumbs down because it is not liberal enough. That means half the public either favors Obamacare, or opposes it because it’s not liberal enough, down four points from last month.

I also saw a poll recently that showed that every major provision of Obamcare with the exception of the individual mandate was supported by a majority of those polled. I’ll try to see if I can find that one.

“I also saw a poll recently”

Polls can be fixed. Which this one was as the pollsters only contacted the phone numbers of Obamaphones.

According to the survey, the majority of the Free Sh*t Army supports Obama giving them more free sh*t.

55% of the poll respondents also support the provision of the Affordable Care Act that makes Promethazine with codeine available for sale over the counter.

Another recent poll notes that one third of Louisiana Republicans blame Obama for Hurricane Katrina.

Rio:

Had it stopped there everything would have be just fine….get the uninsured some coverage

I would have favored a 50 cent single 75cent family for min. wage workers….that’s still $1000-1500 a year..for a 2000 hour full time worker

Up to 10% or $2 hour max deduction on your paycheck or $4000 for family

That way Ohbewanna could have said you can keep your insurance….only those with none would be able to join.

I think giving 40 million uninsured access to insurance is doing the right thing

You are forgetting that this sh*t is really, really strong.

Unless you get high on a daily basis, two tokes is all you need.

I suppose. But man, at $400 an ounce, you could buy a LOT of booze with that money.

I suppose. But man, at $400 an ounce, you could buy a LOT of booze with that money.

The government wants passive people. Alcohol can fuel riots, pot is better for creating passive citizens.

Pot, the new opiate of the masses.

The government wants passive people.

The government did not want passive people when we had a thriving middle-class, good jobs and more equal wealth. They wanted go-getters.

Now that most wealth and opportunities have been redistributed to the very few, maybe they now want passive people.

Wasn’t the Colorado law approved in a referendum?

Yes I believe it was MM….

And supported by George Soros money.

BTW, check out how many open borders groups he supports:

http://sorosfiles.com/soros/2012/04/2010-top-75-grantees-the-soros-american-foundations.html

http://davesnothereman.com/34874/george-soros-godfather-of-the-left-gives-550-million-to-liberal-causes/

More example at daves not here man

http://www.antiwar.com/zunes/?articleid=12052

You ignore the most important fact. Bush is out of office and is not running for office. Putting a bill board in front of his house does not accomplish much of anything. I did not vote for Bush either time not that I accomplished much by not voting for him and his globalist agenda. But Hillary is a globalist just like Bush and she voted to invade Iraq using the same intelligence he had. She also pushed war in Libya and in Syria. Thus, if you hated Bush’s policy in Iraq why would you ever vote to put Hillary in a position of power and why would you not want to put up billboards everywhere to keep her from obtaining office?

George W. Bush was a leader and a visionary. He surrounded himself with brilliant minds like Richard Perle, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz who were critical in influencing the decision to go after the real mastermind of 9/11, the Iranian dictator Saddam Hussein, who personally piloted the planes into our World Trade Centers and Pentagons, and who baked the yellow cakes, and who threatened our friend and ally Israel.

The current occupant of the White House, Barack Hussein (notice anything similar about this name?) Obama, who was born in Kenya, raised eating dog meat in Indonesia, and who during all the years of his missing transcripts from Columbia, was studying Sharia law gay marriages in the madrassas of Pakistan, wants the USA to lose the war. He wants Al Qaeda to win, because he is a muslim.

From the site identified above:

Senator Clinton’s militaristic stance on Iraq predated her support for Bush’s 2003 invasion. For example, in defending the brutal four-day U.S. bombing campaign against Iraq in December 1998 – known as Operation Desert Fox – she claimed that “[T]he so-called presidential palaces … in reality were huge compounds well suited to hold weapons labs, stocks, and records which Saddam Hussein was required by UN resolution to turn over. When Saddam blocked the inspection process, the inspectors left.” In reality, as became apparent when UN inspectors returned in 2002 as well as in the aftermath of the invasion and occupation, there were no weapons labs, stocks of weapons or missing records in these presidential palaces. In addition, Saddam was still allowing for virtually all inspections to go forward at the time of the 1998 U.S. attacks. The inspectors were withdrawn for their own safety at the encouragement of President Clinton in anticipation of the imminent U.S.-led assault.

Senator Clinton also took credit for strengthening U.S. ties with Ahmad Chalabi, the convicted embezzler who played a major role in convincing key segments of the administration, Congress, the CIA, and the American public that Iraq still had proscribed weapons, weapons systems, and weapons labs. She has expressed pride that her husband’s administration changed underlying U.S. policy toward Iraq from “containment” – which had been quite successful in defending Iraq’s neighbors and protecting its Kurdish minority – to “regime change,” which has resulted in tragic warfare, chaos, dislocation, and instability.

Personally, I think that the U.S. should stay the heck out of the Middle East.

However, before most Americans even knew who George Bush was the major movers in the Democratic party were rattling their sabers over Iraq and that evil dictator Saddam Hussein.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwqh4wQPoQk

Politicians are liars who will pretty much say anything that they believe is necessary to stay in power. You are a fool for supporting one corrupt party over the other.

You’re pretty much on the wrong side of every issue, aren’t you?

Before most Americans even knew who George Bush was, a Democrat regime was responsible for half a million dead Iraqi children.

‘Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq: “We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?”

‘Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.”

–60 Minutes (5/12/96)

http://fair.org/extra-online-articles/we-think-the-price-is-worth-it/

LOL Rio as usual is providing far left blogs are “evidence”.

No WMDs found, eh?

Munitions Found in Iraq Meet WMD Criteria, Official Says

By Samantha L. Quigley
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Jun. 29, 2006 – The 500 munitions discovered throughout Iraq since 2003 and discussed in a National Ground Intelligence Center report meet the criteria of weapons of mass destruction, the center’s commander said here today.
“These are chemical weapons as defined under the Chemical Weapons Convention, and yes … they do constitute weapons of mass destruction,” Army Col. John Chu told the House Armed Services Committee.

The Chemical Weapons Convention is an arms control agreement which outlaws the production, stockpiling and use of chemical weapons. It was signed in 1993 and entered into force in 1997.

The munitions found contain sarin and mustard gases, Army Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said. Sarin attacks the neurological system and is potentially lethal.

“Mustard is a blister agent (that) actually produces burning of any area (where) an individual may come in contact with the agent,” he said. It also is potentially fatal if it gets into a person’s lungs.”

____________

But why left pesky facts get in the way of a good leftist rant?

No WMD?

“There were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq after all.
The massive cache of almost 400,000 Iraq war documents released by the WikiLeaks Web site revealed that small amounts of chemical weapons were found in Iraq and continued to surface for years after the 2003 US invasion, Wired magazine reported. The documents showed that US troops continued to find chemical weapons and labs for years after the invasion, including remnants of Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons arsenal — most of which had been destroyed following the Gulf War. In August 2004, American troops were able to buy containers from locals of what they thought was liquid sulfur mustard, a blister agent, the documents revealed. The chemicals were triple-sealed and taken to a secure site. Also in 2004, troops discovered a chemical lab in a house in Fallujah during a battle with insurgents. A chemical cache was also found in the city.”

No WMDs found, eh?

I listed 20 lies about the Iraq war.

That you feebly attempt “disproved” one is a drop in the bucket. It’s math.

Let’s walk this through:
Were any chemical weapons used by Iraq? No. So if they even had any, and did not use them when they were being invaded and killed, and their leader was being hunted down like a dog to be hanged, well then, the “WMD” were not much of a threat were they?

But why (let) pesky facts get in the way of your neocon rant?

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-01-06 15:57:00
Let’s walk this through:
Were any chemical weapons used by Iraq? No. So if they even had any, and did not use them when they were being invaded and killed, and their leader was being hunted down like a dog to be hanged, well then, the “WMD” were not much of a threat were they?

But why (let) pesky facts get in the way of your neocon rant?

What about this pesky little fact Rio?

Excerpt from article on About.com

3.Chemical Weapons Against Kurds
As early as April 1987, the Iraqis used chemical weapons to remove Kurds from their villages in northern Iraq during the Anfal campaign. It is estimated that chemical weapons were used on approximately 40 Kurdish villages, with the largest of these attacks occurring on March 16, 1988 against the Kurdish town of Halabja.

Beginning in the morning on March 16, 1988 and continuing all night, the Iraqis rained down volley after volley of bombs filled with a deadly mixture of mustard gas and nerve agents on Halabja. Immediate effects of the chemicals included blindness, vomiting, blisters, convulsions, and asphyxiation. Approximately 5,000 women, men, and children died within days of the attacks. Long-term effects included permanent blindness, cancer, and birth defects. An estimated 10,000 lived, but live daily with the disfigurement and sicknesses from the chemical weapons.

Saddam Hussein’s cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid was directly in charge of the chemical attacks against the Kurds, earning him the epithet, “Chemical Ali.”

Speaking of pesky facts:

‘Newly released documents show that U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, played a leading role in building up Iraq’s military in the 1980s when Iraq was using chemical weapons, a newspaper reports.’

‘It was Rumsfeld, now defense secretary and then a special presidential envoy, whose December 1983 meeting with Saddam Hussein led to the normalization of ties between Washington and Baghdad, according to the Washington Post.’

‘The cozy relationship was an effort to build a regional bulwark against America’s enemies in Iran.’

‘The newspaper says a review of a large tranche of government documents reveals that the administrations of President Reagan and the first President Bush both authorized providing Iraq with intelligence and logistical support, and okayed the sale of dual use items — those with military and civilian applications — that included chemicals and germs, even anthrax and bubonic plague.’

‘When Iraq used chemical weapons against the Kurds in 1987, there was anger in Congress and the White House. But a memo in 1988 from Assistant Secretary of State Richard W. Murphy stated that “The U.S.-Iraqi relationship is … important to our long-term political and economic objectives.”

“We believe that economic sanctions will be useless or counterproductive to influence the Iraqis,” the Post quoted the memo as saying.”

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-and-iraq-go-way-back/

We need to stop doing this stuff. Why would we even make it, much less sell it to some dictator? And BTW, the CIA put Hussein in power in the first place. So much destruction, so much wasted money.

What about this pesky little fact Rio?

3.Chemical Weapons Against Kurds

So the argument you are making is that when Leaders use WMD’s against their own people, USA should always go in?

I thought American’s just rejected that idea with Syria.

We need to stop doing this stuff. Why would we even make it, much less sell it to some dictator? And BTW, the CIA put Hussein in power in the first place. So much destruction, so much wasted money.

I agree.

Once you go Iraq, you never come back.

Lol

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-01-06 17:34:20
3.Chemical Weapons Against Kurds
So the argument you are making is that when Leaders use WMD’s against their own people, USA should always go in?

I am not making any such argument. I am pointing out that you play loose and silly games with facts. Specifically you said:
“Were any chemical weapons used by Iraq? No. ”

As in many other instances you make conclusive statements that are simply your viewpoint or rant, not a fact.

Specifically you said:
“Were any chemical weapons used by Iraq? No.

Give me a break. You are trying to be “oh-so-tricky” and it isn’t working.

Re read it. “and their leader was being hunted down like a dog to be hanged, ” You know darn well I was talking about Iraq using WMD’s against America. Or you should have been able to figure that out.

So Iraq used WMD’s against Iran well before that too. Should we have gone after them then, at the same time we were supporting them?

you make conclusive statements that are simply your viewpoint

My viewpoints are based on facts. Facts that the right can’t counter but rather end up pulling their hair out.

Yammering about facts yet you’re posts are 100% fact free.

Fact Free Lola.

Holder should be given an injection that turns his skin white and then subjected to repeated participation in the Knockout Game.

Because it’s just a “game”, right? A “game” played by “youths” and “students” who are just out having a lark

Since Obama is half white is deserves something, maybe not the full knockout, maybe the “youth” should give him a bi*ch slap.

is=he