Bits Bucket for January 14, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Just to report: Had a nice dinner with simiwatch near downtown in Shanghai last night. He showed me around some of the older parts of town a bit and pointed out some of the highrises and such that were mostly or completely dark. I’ve seen lots of dark apartment buildings along the “interstates”, but didn’t realize there were also significant numbers of downtown buildings that were dark. The sad part there is that extremely old highly populated neighborhoods were bulldozed to build them.
And just to clarify my post about the $8000 rental house yesterday, my cousin is a director level manager at a major corporation who is on the ladder and getting his ticket punched (in my opinion). Not a tech worker training his replacement. So to me it makes sense that they got him that house and let him bring his family. It’s just nuts that it costs that much.
Thank you for these reports, Carl. As you know, HBB has been high on speculation lately. Your boots-on-the-ground intel is extremely valuable, and raises the quality of the blog.
Yes it does…
The most important thing anyone can say, and say over and over, is that the whole housing game is currently rigged, realtors are liars, and don’t believe the REIC cheerleaders in the media and vested interest debt donkeys here on this blog.
They will cost you a lot of money.
Here’s one thing you can count on Anklepants. We will be reporting it over and over on every media outlet we have access to as a public service.
This is excellent advice, Anklepants, and I am quite happy that most people will not take it.
I’d prefer people continue to think such things as “People are smart” and debt is wealth.
Thank you. We work hard to bring relevant accurate analysis to the public in spite of the deliberate obfuscation of the truth.
How is the pollution there?
Frankly, it can’t be any worse than the health hazard of coastal California irradiation for the Fukushima fallout.
Is there any proof that this is happening? I find it hard to believe that there would be little dispersal across the Pacific and that short half-lives would not be played out.
Of course. We wouldn’t be saying it without evidence.
“Fukushima fallout damaged thyroid glands of California babies”
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2164974/fukushima_fallout_damaged_thyroid_glands_of_california_babies.html
A simple test would be to take a geiger counter to the beach and look to see if the needle pegs.
Has this ever been done?
Given how hazardous radiation is, personally i wouldn’t get near the beach.
If you read the article you will learn that the half-life of the radioactive iodine that supposidly traveled all the way across the Pacific to infect expectant mothers off the coast of California is 8 days.
Eight days!
Damage already done.
“Eight days!”
Nuclear reactors do not run on Iodine I think. So Combo you will have to puzzle that further.
As per Wikipedia:
Caesium-137 or radiocaesium, is a radioactive isotope of caesium which is formed as one of the more common fission products by the nuclear fission of uranium-235 and other fissionable isotopes in nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons. It is among the most problematic of the short-to-medium-lifetime fission products because it easily moves and spreads in nature due to the high water solubility of caesium’s most common chemical compounds, which are salts. Half life is ~30years.
A simple test would be to take a geiger counter to the beach and look to see if the needle pegs.
Has this ever been done?
You’d think that some physics major or prof would have tried that by now.
The half-life of Caesium-137, the most dangerous isotope coming out of Fukushima, is 30 years. Those isotopes have been found throughout the US and Canada, including the east coast. Additionally, the problem is not fixed. The reactors went into meltdown, essentially an uncontrolled nuclear reaction, and is constantly spewing radiation via ground water into the ocean. That also will not stop, even with Japan’s latest plan to create an ice barrier around the facility to stop ground water contamination from flowing into the ocean.
If you doubt there is a cover-up, you only need to google “aircraft carrier crew cancer” as well as “Japan secrecy bill”. This is an ongoing disaster that cannot be contained and is considerably worse than Chernobyl… the Japanese lost control and Japan and the entire West Coast of the US and Canada (and the world) are paying the price.
yes it was done near San Francisco the gieger counter went high it’s on you tube
last I heard it was natural radiation I’m not really following it that much
By Jason Hoppin , Santa Cruz Sentinel,
Posted: 01/10/2014 09:36:52 AM PST | Updated: 4 days ago
HALF MOON BAY — The state of California is rebuffing Internet theories that a 2011 nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan is now causing alarming levels of radiation on West Coast beaches.
A YouTube video touted by radio host Alex Jones shows elevated radioactivity at a Half Moon Bay beach, which prompted San Mateo County health officials to alert the state. But the state said this week the radiation is naturally occurring and seen often along California’s eroding coastline.
“There is no public health risk at California beaches due to radioactivity related to events at Fukushima,” the California Department of Public Health stated emphatically this week.
The original YouTube video includes someone walking around with a Geiger counter showing spikes in radioactivity, and by Thursday had been seen nearly 650,000 times. Immediately after the reactor meltdown, slightly elevated levels of radiation were discovered in West Coast air and milk samples, though they posed no health threat and have since subsided.
In March 2011, a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami caused major damage to the 40-year-old Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, triggering global nuclear concerns and ongoing monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Several months ago, radioactive water from a storage tank leaked in the ocean, and there is widespread suspicion the scope of the problem there is underreported.
Reports on Foxnews.com elsewhere site have touted a study showing an expected “wave” of radiation set to hit the West Coast in 2014. But experts say the levels are so low they pose no threat to human health, and the study those reports are based on noted Cesium-137 and other radionuclides wouldn’t begin hitting California until 2016.
last I heard it was natural radiation
Yes.
It makes you wonder how many are getting barbequed in Oregon and Washington state.
From the 1/10/2014 Santa Cruz Sentinel:
“Recent tests by the San Mateo County Public Health Department and CDPH show that elevated levels of radiation at Half Moon Bay are due to naturally occurring materials and not radioactivity associated with the Fukushima incident.”
The EPA estimates people are subject to about 620 millirems of radiation annually, with an average of 200 millirems coming from home radon exposure, which is also found throughout nature. About half the exposure is from natural sources, with medical procedures accounting for the other half.
People living in coastal regions typically see an average of 24 millirems of cosmic radiation, while those living near functioning nuclear power plants typically see less than 1 millirem from that source.
Researchers launch ‘kelp watch’ to determine extent of Fukushima contamination
“I receive calls and emails weekly from concerned visitors and Californians about the effect of the Fukushima disaster on our California marine life,” he continued. “I tell them that the anticipated concentrations that will arrive are most likely very low but we have no data regarding its impact on our coastal ecosystem. Kelp Watch 2014 will provide an initial monitoring system at least in the short-term.”
The project includes the participation of 19 academic and government institutions and three other organizations/businesses. These participants will sample kelp from the entire California coastline as far north as Del Norte County and as far south as Baja California. The sampling will begin in mid-February and will end in late winter.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-01-kelp-extent-fukushima-contamination.html#jCp
The EPA estimates people are subject to about 620 millirems of radiation annually, with an average of 200 millirems coming from home radon exposure, which is also found throughout nature.
The radon part is very interesting. It was quite common in Vermont to have people against nuclear energy who had sealed up their homes to save energy. Unfortunately, the granite in Vermont would cause elevated radiation particularly in their basements. The radiation that would cause lung cancer etc. did not come from the nuclear plant, Vermont Yankee, but their attempts to be green. Of course, you can save energy and prevent radon build up but you must have a proper venting system.
“the half-life of the radioactive iodine that supposidly traveled all the way across the Pacific to infect expectant mothers off the coast of California is 8 days.”
I believe the radioactive iodine was air born and brought to earth by rain and ran off into the ocean. They initially found it in kelp shortly after the reactor meltdown but it decayed fairly quickly. There was a Scientific American article on this (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=radioactive-iodine-from-from-fukushima-found-in-california-kelp)
“…Of course. We wouldn’t be saying it without evidence….”
This “study” (in an “open journal”) has been thoroughly trashed and its authors exposed as dishonest buffoons for cherry-picking data. How predictable.
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/06/21/are-babies-dying-in-the-pacific-northwest-due-to-fukushima-a-look-at-the-numbers/
Good to see you back Allena.
She never left Amy.
In United States the radiation from burning coal is in the fly ash captured by environmental controls, in China far more of it makes its way into the environment. You will face more radiation risk in China than most places in Japan.
Why I would be much more worried about China’s coal plants than Japan’s nuclear plants.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste
There’s really no need to worry. Just stay away from coastal areas…. unless you want to get barbequed.
Coal ash is not more radioactive than radioactive waste!!!
Take it up with Scientific American.
In my legal career I have regulated coal mines and even been involved in a nuclear waste case before the NRC. Most of what we call nuclear waste here can easily be reprocessed and is in most of the world. It is just one of the many mistakes of Jimmy Carter that still have not been fixed.
P.S. one of the reasons I first questioned AGW or at least the numbers James Hansen was using is because of the irrationality of stating that we faced a global calamity due to co2 emissions but most of the proponents of AGW were against the use of nuclear power. Really we are on the verge of an extinction event but you will not use a power source with easily addressed problems to prevent it?
Even today if they thought that it was a real problem and not just a way to transfer wealth, they would push for thorium reactors which are much safer than the 50 year old nuclear technology but could economically produce electricity without co2 emissions. But then there would be nothing to tax.
I read somewhere that burning coal in china was adding mercury to the oceans and that this was more of a health issue than radioactivity in the ocean. I also think the coal they burn has a lot of sulfer which turns to sulferic acid and raises the ocean pH - a big concern if your a shelfish.
http://calwatchdog.com/2014/01/13/will-ca-green-energy-policies-backfire-like-germanys-did/
I read somewhere that burning coal in china was adding mercury to the oceans and that this was more of a health issue than radioactivity in the ocean
The Chinese burn coal with high levels of mercury and arsenic and it is a huge problem. While most coal has some mercury we limit emissions while they allow anything to be burned. As I have said for years, environmentalists should concentrate on real pollution and that is overwhelmingly coming from China and ignore the beneficial gas co2. The fact that is not happening tells me just how much the PTB have captured the environmental movement. I am not surprised since the Sierra Club’s refusal to oppose illegal immigration told me years ago that they had been captured.
http://www.articlesbase.com/environment-articles/coal-is-chinas-largest-atmospheric-mercury-emission-sources-6546259.html
The pollution seemed really bad to me the first day or two. Between rain and getting used to it I don’t notice it that much now.
The pollution seemed really bad to me the first day or two. Between rain and getting used to it I don’t notice it that much now.
Just because you have developed a tolerance, is no indication the pollution isn’t still hurting you. I hope you do all right. My sister spent 6 months in Harbin in 1994, teaching English, got so sick of the pollution she couldn’t stand it & came back earlier than she thought she would. Took her a couple of years to recover back in the USA.
Hey Carl:
Send pictures of the dark buildings to Ben.
You can only really notice them when it’s dark. My iPhone isn’t that good in the dark. Seems kind of pointless. But if Ben wants them I’ll do what I can. I usually see them when buzzing by on the highway and don’t have time…
I live in Hong Kong and our rent is $8kUS. I know folks in village houses - we are in an estate tower - paying over $11kUS. Your cousins place sounds exactly like the village houses here. Maybe the views here are better than those in Shanghai but that would be about the only difference.
Why are you reading an American housing bubble blog? I know it covers international sometimes, just curious.
Because this is a fun blog! I love this blog. For the most part, we have some very intelligent posters. And even though the give and take gets a little dicey sometimes, I far prefer it to the “sanitized for your protection” moderation of some other blogs.
Yes, I know the question wasn’t directed at me, but I’m just sayin’. I learn a lot here, get differing points of view, information about issues other than housing, etc.
I agree. It is small enough to not be overrun, but large enough to provide good intellectual diversity.
I’ve been thinking of what a 1 hour daily podcast version of this blog would sound like.
“I live in Hong Kong and our rent is $8kUS. ”
That is absolutely insane. How do most people in HK afford these prices? Or do they live in the streets?
I’m guessing that the “unwashed” live in the “burbs” on the mainland.
The poster’s income is probably $33k per month.
Also, the income tax in Hong Kong is a flat 15%. There is no class warfare. There are no LIEberals in Hong Kong.
The Treasury bond market is dead.
LONG LIVE TREASURYS!
I have full faith in janet yellen to print more money and buy more treasuries.
Considering the failure of that policy, why would they?
Failure for whom?
It certainly isn’t inflating housing given the fact that prices resumed falling. Not that it really matters considering housing demand has been collapsing all along since 2006.
P-bear, I know you love to post these bond market articles, but us non-econs, could you give us insight into the significance? Do bond prices lead interest rates, or do interest rates lead prices? Also, y’all know I’m a Fed, and yeah, part of the retirement is Treasuries, so I’m wondering about that.
1. Long-term Treasury bond yields are about 99% correlated with 30-year mortgage rates.
2. Even slightly higher 30-year mortgage rates would crash the housing market.
3. Therefore, by hook or by crook, long-term Treasury bond yields will go up “by less and more slowly than expected.”
4. Unless our Congress goes collectively insane and defaults on the national debt, Treasurys will remain essentially “risk free” in terms of virtually no chance of default. Hence your retirement is safe if it is parked in Treasurys, UNLESS inflation goes “much higher than expected” (as it did during the 1970s).
“Do bond prices lead interest rates, or do interest rates lead prices?”
I’m not sure exactly which “interest rates” you have in mind, but it is a complicated story.The long-held conventional view was the Fed controlled short-term interest rates through monetary policy while bond traders controlled long-term rates through purchase demand for Treasurys, long-term corporate bonds, etc.
Absent QE3, long-term Treasury yields are set by bond market participants buying long-term Treasurys at auction; the stronger the demand for a long-term Treasury bond issue, the lower the yield Uncle Sam has to pay on the debt in order to clear the market. QE3 enabled Uncle Sam to sell more debt at a low interest rate than would have been possible w/o $45 bn in QE3 from the Fed each month goosing demand; hence the foregone conclusion that tapering QE3 will lead to higher long-term Treasury yields.
Short-term Treasury bill rates are closely tied to Fed Funds and other short-term interest rates, as they are a substitute asset in the market for short-term, high-quality debt. When the Fed suggests that short-term rates will stay low until 2017 (or whenever), they are suggesting that the QE3 taper will not be accompanied by a change in using traditional monetary policy (setting the Fed Funds rate) to keep short-term interest rates pinned to the zero bound.
Does that about sum it up?
Where’s that hyper-inflation?
“Financial Repression Back to Stay”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-11/financial-repression-has-come-back-to-stay-carmen-m-reinhart.html
Thank you Prof. I still feel like an idiot. From your points 1 and 2, it sounds like you’re posting these articles as evidence of manipulation. Bond yields (interest %) should be going up, but they aren’t, because doing so would crash the housing market.
Meanwhile, people really want to purchase safe Treasuries, and high demand means high price in the form of… low yield? I’m still a bit confused.
He’s saying that the Federal Reserve is walking a tight-rope.
My take might be different from his; I’m not sure. Mortgage rates started to rise before the Federal Reserve ever started to threaten the tapir, indicating that they were out of control of long-term rates. Hence, this is the perfect time for the Federal Reserve to taper. As long as they have lost control of long-term interest rates, then they might as well cut it out with the tapering, since tapering would tend to contribute to very high inflation.
On the other hand, the United States is still experiencing very severe deflationary forces due to trade policy (not monetary policy). The Federal Reserve can’t change trade policy, so it will probably continue with low short-term rates for a while. Short-term rates can help reduce deflationary pressures in the short run, but not the long run.
I think the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce the chances of hyperinflation by tapering (allowing long-term rates to rise naturally), while reducing the chances of near-term deflation by keeping the overnight rate way too low.
I think Whac may be considering dumping long-term bonds for now, but buying them again later. This is because if you own Treasuries that are currently paying out low interest, but investors start to demand higher yields, then you can’t sell without taking a loss on your purchase price. He’s cagey about it though.
Ummm…. I just realized that I used the word “taper” in several places where I meant to say “easing”. This, of course, makes my entire comment meaningless
At least I know what I meant, even if I did just mess up the internet a little bit more.
‘Ummm…. I just realized that I used the word “taper” in several places where I meant to say “easing”. ‘
I think you got it right. Note that ‘quantitative easing’ is the opposite of ‘tapering.’ Further, ‘easing’ is normally used to refer to looser monetary policy at the short end of the curve (i.e. a reduction in the Fed Funds rate). It’s hard to ease short-term rates below the zero bound; hence the need for QE to reduce long-term rates.
“Mortgage rates started to rise before the Federal Reserve ever started to threaten the tapir, indicating that they were out of control of long-term rates. Hence, this is the perfect time for the Federal Reserve to taper.”
I may be recalling the events wrong, but I believe the Fed started the ‘taper talk’ last year months before long-term Treasury yields started their upward ascent (the latter from May 2, 2013). And of course the first taper baby step just happened last month.
My read of the way things played out was the Fed signaled their taper intentions to bond traders, but then let rational expectations for a future taper drive a decrease in long-term Treasury bond demand which drove prices down and yields up (long-term Treasury yields and prices are deterministically related by a decreasing convex functional relationship; will post a graph later if I get sufficiently motivated). Only after the market was through pricing in taper expectations did the taper baby steps begin.
“I think Whac may be considering dumping long-term bonds for now, but buying them again later.”
That decision should depend on what you believe will happen first: A further 10%+ increase in U.S. stock market indexes, or a 10%+ correction?
“…and high demand means high price in the form of… low yield…”
Right: High prices and low yield (interest rates) go hand-in-hand with long-term Treasurys.
Their valuations work pretty much the same way as housing, in fact.
Professor: Haven’t you written in the past about interest rate increases that occurred back in 1993-94 and the resulting decline in house prices in much of California? I think that something like that could happen at some point in this decade. The REIC would suffer, but the rest of the economy could do OKz.
Think about it this way;
Falling housing prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels always results increased volume and velocity of dollars in the broad economy.
The reality is that the price declines will occur no matter the lending rate. Rising rates merely make the declines to affordable levels more rapid.
“Unless our Congress goes collectively insane and defaults on the national debt,”
Precisely the very reason why a Cyprus style electronic confiscation will most likely leave the treasuries alone. Electronic treasuries are grouped in the same bucket as the treasuries institutions buy.
Instead, the thugernment will steal from your bank accounts and credit union accounts, also 401ks and IRAs.
T-bills are safer than cash and are just about the same as cash. You tie up the T-bills for months, but if you ladder them, and have a credit card, you can work out a way that if you really desperately need cash just put it on credit and let the T-bills mature over the regular periods of the year to pay off the credit card.
My 52-week T bills are spread evenly over 13 periods so I have a 13th of the amount maturing every four weeks.
4 week bills yield 0% and I just bought a batch of them but I will get out the principle.
Balance it out with physical precious metals and a bit of mining stocks and you have lots o’ safety.
“Also, y’all know I’m a Fed, and yeah, part of the retirement is Treasuries, so I’m wondering about that.”
The interest paid by the G fund interest is computed monthly. That is good news for those who invest in the TSP’s G fund because, when inflation kicks in, you will earn a higher interest rate on your investment when the interest rate paid on longer term Treasury securities goes higher.
Google: “Understanding the TSP’s G Fund”
The other part is that the G fund has a principle guarantee; i.e. unlike Treasurys, the value of your account will not go down when interest rates rise.
The flip side of the equation is that so long as interest rates stay low, your return is next to nothing.
“Do you want to lose a lifetime of earnings and wages? Just buy a house at current inflated asking prices and the losses will be guaranteed.”
And borrowing for it for 30 years doubles the losses.
Buy a home, build equity with every mortgage payment, deduct the interest on your taxes, and retire after thirty years with a paid off home that is the foundation of a successful retirement.
Rent for thirty years and be left with nothing but an empty bank account.
Rent your shelter for 30 years for half the cost buying.
What’s the problem?
Remember…. Houses are depreciating assets and result in loss, ALWAYS.
Rent your shelter?
A home is more than just shelter. You may as well go live in a tent or a cave so you can count all the pennies you’re saving. But then you wouldn’t have mom to keep washing your dirty socks and paying the electric bill so you can play X-Box all day and keeping the fridge full of Hot Pockets.
Bitter mother.
Depreciates…. ALWAYS
Bitter mother.
Is Amy HA’s mom?
I don’t know but they do make great foils for each other.
Venice CA Housing Prices Slide 6% Year Over Year
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/venice.htm
Is Amy HA’s mom?
Only in the same way that Smeagol and Gollum are identical twins.
http://goo.gl/Wh2X7Z
“Remember, housing demand has fallen to 1997 levels as a result of massively inflated asking prices of resale housing.
And demand will continue to crater until prices roll back to the long term trend line or roughly 1996 levels.”
Don’t you know it brother.
“Top Dirties Cities In America”
http://local.msn.com/americas-12-dirtiest-cities
7 of 12 are in California
that is not surprising. CA has got its problems for sure.
they sure aren’t make it business friendly. Seems like they are getting enough federal dollars via grants, food stamps etc to compensate for the lack of tax revenue created by private business.
California Most Impoverish State In The US
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_poverty_rate
they sure aren’t make it business friendly. Seems like they are getting enough federal dollars via grants, food stamps etc to compensate for the lack of tax revenue created by private business.”
That’s good because our accountant was hired because of his expertise in setting up a Singapore tax shelter
He is paid very well Millions in Stock options
I guess all high tech does this avoids CA income tax- I however have to pay it and it gets to 10% pretty quickly
California is a relatively business-friendly state. Kind of helps explain why they have so much business and stuff. Weird how the most “business friendly” (i.e., Republican) states are the ones that don’t have as much going on.
California income taxes are median for the United States, by the way.
If that were true then they wouldn’t be the most impoverished state in the union.
Are you Nancy Pelosi? Ranking 48th does not make you business friendly. CA only survives on Internet and Housing Bubbles.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2013/03/31/the-most-and-least-business-friendly-states/
I suppose if you come up with a list of Republican priorities, and then define those as “business friendly”, then California is going to look bad on paper. If you use a more objective measure, such as “profitable business activity that actually happens,” then you come up with a different ranking.
then you come up with a different ranking.
Yea, like 50th. You seem to ignoring your unemployment rate and the fact that businesses are leaving for Texas and Utah in droves. Even Brown admits California revenues are really based on capital gains which is really just internet bubble gains. Of course, despite probably ten billion or more of the revenue being bubble gains, he only puts away 1.6 billion out of a 100 billion plus budget, yea that is going to take care of the bursting of the bubble.
http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
By unemployment CA ranks 46. It is funny how you can line up the business friendly states and compare that to how they are ranked by unemployment and find a strong correlation between their ranking on being business friendly and their unemployment rate. It is not perfect, for example Vermont has low unemployment but is not business friendly but it is an exception, in general there is a close correlation.
You’re forgetting the role of the housing bubble itself, Dan. Nevada is very business-friendly according to Forbes and it has even higher unemployment than California.
Fresno number 1!
On a serious note, the agricultural groundwater is what my sisters and I thought did in our parents. My oldest sister still lives in Fresno. I am not sure but she might drink tap water - she has no money to buy clean water in jugs from the grocery store. She spends it all on a roof over the heads of her adult kids - one who graduated from college in art.
They know I don’t own real estate and they know I drive a ten year old economy car. They do not know what my net worth is. There is no need to know.
My dad was a hard worker and he instilled that in us. So you earn it yourself. That’s basically it.
“Mortgage Defaults Skyrocketing”
http://www.billsbills.com/blog/mortgage-defaults-skyrocketing-hamp-has-failed
Default is what happens when the price of housing is grossly inflated.
Bailing Out Health Insurers and Helping Obamacare
Jan 13, 2014 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON
Robert Laszewski—a prominent consultant to health insurance companies—recently wrote in a remarkably candid blog post that, while Obamacare is almost certain to cause insurance costs to skyrocket even higher than it already has, “insurers won’t be losing a lot of sleep over it.” How can this be? Because insurance companies won’t bear the cost of their own losses—at least not more than about a quarter of them. The other three-quarters will be borne by American taxpayers.
But that’s exactly what it will do—unless Republicans take action. As Laszewski explains, Obamacare contains a “Reinsurance Program that caps big claim costs for insurers (individual plans only).” He writes that “in 2014, 80% of individual costs between $45,000 and $250,000 are paid by the government [read: by taxpayers], for example.”
In other words, insurance purchased through Obamacare’s government-run exchanges isn’t even full-fledged private insurance; rather, it’s a sort of private-public hybrid. Private insurance companies pay for costs below $45,000, then taxpayers generously pick up the tab—a tab that their president hasn’t ever bothered to tell them he has opened up on their behalf—for four-fifths of the next $200,000-plus worth of costs. In this way, and so many others, Obamacare takes a major step toward the government monopoly over American medicine (“single payer”) that liberals drool about in their sleep.
Laszewski adds, “The reinsurance program has done and will continue to do what it was intended to do; help attract and keep more carriers in Obamacare than might have otherwise come.” Thus, Obamacare is being aided by having taxpayers subsidize big insurance companies’ business expenses. (Who could ever have guessed that big government and big business might be natural allies?)
But, amazingly, it doesn’t stop there. Laszewski writes that Obamacare also contains a “Risk Corridor Program that limits overall losses for insurers.” So insurers not only don’t have to pay out all of their costs; they also don’t have to swallow all of their losses.
Laszewski explains that if an insurance company expects its costs in a given year to be X, and those costs end up being more than X plus 2 percent, taxpayers will come to that insurance company’s rescue—thanks to Obamacare. In fact, once an insurance company covers that initial 2 percent in unexpected costs, taxpayers will cover at least 80 percent of any additional costs the insurer accrues.
Laszewski provides a couple of examples to help illustrate taxpayers’ unwitting generosity toward these “participating health plans” (plans sold through Obamacare’s government-run exchanges):
“[I]f the health plan has costs at 110% of the medical cost target [the costs that the insurer expects to accrue], it will be responsible for only 102.4% of the target (a 2.4% shortfall)—only about a quarter of its losses.
“If the health plan’s medical costs come in at 120% of the expected claim cost target level, the health plan will only be responsible for 104.4% of the target (a 4.4% shortfall)—again only about a quarter of its losses.”
It’s actually only about a fifth in this example, as taxpayers would cover 78 percent of the losses, with the insurer covering just 22 percent.
For some reason, President Obama hasn’t talked about this particular feature of his signature legislation. Indeed, it’s bad enough that Obamacare is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to funnel $1,071,000,000,000.00 (that’s $1.071 trillion) over the next decade (2014 to 2023) from American taxpayers, through Washington, to health insurance companies. It’s even worse that Obamacare is trying to coerce Americans into buying those same insurers’ product (although there are escape routes). It’s almost unbelievable that it will also subsidize those same insurers’ losses.
Importantly, Laszewski (who’s in a position to know) says that “my sense is that health plans, because they are so insulated from big losses, will generally stand pat with their 2014 rate structures for 2015—no matter how bad the early claims experience looks. I expect that the health insurance industry will be content to give the Obama administration one more chance to reboot Obamacare in the fall of 2014, when the 2015 open enrollment takes place.”
In other words, because taxpayers will bail them out (through both the “Reinsurance Program” and the “Risk Corridor Program”), insurers won’t raise their premiums as much for 2015 as they otherwise would in response to the sicker, older risk pools that Obamacare is clearly attracting. This in turn will make Obamacare look better going forward than it should and will give its government-run exchanges another good swing at the “young invincibles,” who so far don’t seem too enamored with the product that Obama and his insurance cronies are hawking.
All of this puts two things in sharp relief: First, Republicans should attach a no-bailout provision to any debt-ceiling increase—as Charles Krauthammer has suggested—along with a provision delaying Obamacare’s liberty-sapping individual mandate (the delay of which would further undermine Obamacare’s exchanges). Second, Obamacare needs to be comprehensively repealed in January 2017, not modified or “fixed”—and Republicans need to advance a winning alternative to pave the way to that crucial result.
Going to be hard to squeeze blood out of a turnip. Wonder what’s going to happen when there aren’t enough young and healthy subscribing to obamacare to subsidize the elderly and sick; what new taxes will be imposed?
“what new taxes will be imposed?”
Liberal socialist Europe loves energy taxes.
“what new taxes will be imposed?”
Prepared junk food using HFCS should be taxed.
Along with gangsta rap music.
I wish Dan….but the RIAA never sued anyone black for downloading and stealing and selling stolen music on ebay or CL………so fat chance there.
“Prepared junk food using HFCS should be taxed.”
A better pick would be soy products. Full of plant estrogen and phytic acid, both know to cause harmful side effects.
Hippies be ware!
Charles Krauthammer talked about this on Dennis Miller’s podcast a few days ago. He suggest that pulling out this guarantee will be how the democrats get on board killing it.
There is no way insurance companies won’t go with a price increase in 2015.
How has this insurance re-structuring been as a draw for future doctors? Do high school and college kids still see medicine as a lucrative field for the next 30+ years?
I don’t think the impact will be felt for another 5-10 years possibly. If aca is still intact at that point. I would imagine there would be a serious decline in quality if current policies remain.
Seems like we are going into deflation of wages as there are too many people and not enough velocity of money, IMHO. I see the market as looking to extract every dollar that the fed can lend a hand to corporations. Housing, insurance, medical care, education, etc. you name it. Oh, taxes, I forgot those.
Gee, why can’t poor people just.buy.more.money?
Regarding Obamacare, here the Obama Ministry of Truth official Voice of the Regime, the New York Times reports:
“People signing up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act’s federal and state marketplaces tend to be older and potentially less healthy, officials said Monday, a demographic mix that could threaten the law’s economic underpinnings and cause premiums to rise in the future if the pattern persists.
Of those who signed up in the first three months, administration officials said, 55 percent are age 45 to 64.”
While seemingly not a good the for the ACA, isn’t the 45+ demographic the largest in the country? Meaning this 55% figure shouldn’t be that surprising.
No, it isn’t and the sign up numbers are not even close to what they need to avoid much higher premiums.
http://www.newstrategist.com/store/files/AmGen6SamplePgs.pdf
By 2008, there were almost as many millennials as baby boomers, with the higher natural attrition of the older population they are probably equal to or more than the baby boomers. Moreover, the 45-64 range does not capture all the baby boomers including the ones born right after WWII which was an important part of the baby boomers.
“No, it isn’t”
According to your own post below, yes it is (boomers being the largest group). Not by much, admittedly. But I wasn’t even limiting my comment to them, but rather to 45+, which would include people in their 60s and 70s and up. I’m just saying that it makes perfect sense that older folks would be signing up in larger numbers.
Sorry you are wrong, as I pointed out many of the boomers had aged out of the 45-64 age group. The question was not whether the millennials or the baby boomers were the biggest group but whether the 45-64 age group was the biggest demographic, it is not.
Moreover, as I corrected predicted millennials are now the largest age group and documented by Time Magazine online article dated March 29, 2012:
Right now, there are about 80 million millennials and 76 million boomers in America. Half of all millennials are already in the workforce, and millions are added every year. Approximately 10,000 millennials turn 21 every day in America, and by the year 2025, three out of every four workers globally will be Gen Y. “This generation is reshaping today’s consumer and media markets, and even MTV itself,” says Nick Shore, a senior vice president at MTV involved in the “No Collar Workers” study.
Read more: Baby Boomers, Millennials Clash in Workplaces Around U.S. | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2012/03/29/millennials-vs-baby-boomers-who-would-you-rather-hire/#ixzz2qPXCNAkr
“Sorry you are wrong, as I pointed out many of the boomers had aged out of the 45-64 age group.”
Your point overall is certainly well taken, but as I say, that’s why I used “45+”, meaning those who have aged out of the demo as well.
If you are over 65 you are eligible for Medicare and Obamacare will not apply so why would they even be on the Obama exchange? Why you would care about people over 65, I do not know. However, if you are treating 45 to death as demo group, then yes they would be the biggest demo group compared to other established groups but I think you are reaching to avoid being wrong in all honestly. So what is this new demo group which consists of 45 year olds to infinity called?
“I think you are reaching to avoid being wrong in all honestly.”
Nope, just being an idiot. Somehow, medicare never crossed my mind. Still, the numbers are what I’d expect– the boomer demo is bloody huge and not necessarily healthy, so of course they’re going to be the ones signing up in huge numbers.
Regarding the Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) we need to get our woe (way of eating) corrected. That will bring our health crisis into the black.
You might want to start with your personal financial conditions first.
Why would a Baby Boomer eat right and exercise? After all, you can have all the free pills, surgeries, and transportation aides you want.
I saw a cool web site that cited studies that eating oatmeal with citrus (not juice but in the fruit form) has several times as long an effect in killing off LDL.
The grapefruit and oatmeal diet would work well. I eat a couple of oranges with steel cut oatmeal.
Three ounces of oatmeal daily has been shown to cut cholesterol by 8% to 22%. Daily is the key. This has a noticeable effect in several months. Not two months but maybe five or six months.
All I know is that my beautiful Iranian-American Nurse Practitioner a few years ago threatened to put me on statin for my cholesterol of over 260. I was already exercising a lot. The only changes I made were to cut out the burgers and fries - eat Subway sandwiches instead, eat oatmeal for breakfast and drink green tea. Brought the total level down to 190 in six months.
Why would a Republican not want to bail out a business lobby with little-people money?
Because that is Obama’s work.
So, um, how long have you been reading news? Do you remember TARP, which was requested by Hank Paulson and sold to America by George Bush?
Republicans LOVE to subsidize big companies with taxpayer money. They just HATE to subsidize taxpayers with taxpayer money.
Did the Democrats go alone with it? Look many on this board including me have no use for the establishment wing of either party but don’t pretend that the Democrats were just as involved only the Tea Party Republicans and Bernie Sanders seem to be against these type of bail-outs.
P.S. I remember seeing Howard Dean on television and he was salivating on how much money TARP was going to make the government and how it could fund social programs.
not just=just above. The Democrats were just as involved.
Because that is Obama’s work.
Because
thatit is Obama’s work, where “it” = Obamacare.I’ll say it again. Repubs only wish they’d gotten to the handout-to-insurance-companies that the ACA is, first.
“The losses associated with buying resale housing at current massively inflated asking prices is irrecoverable.
Rental rates are half the cost of buying.”
Correct.
That explains why housing demand is at 16 year lows… and falling.
Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
And renting from the bank at twice the cost will? LOLZ
Silly Donkey.
Do you and your roommates have a “chore chart” on the fridge like we did back in college?
Still renting at your age is just sad, grow up already.
Obviously not a math major.
Money rented from a bank will never feel like real wealth.
“The deflationary spiral rages on…… whatever you do, stay out of debt and hold onto your cash.”
You better believe it mister.
For every $1 of mortgage interest I pay, I get to deduct $2 from my income taxes.
Renters don’t get any of these tax advantages.
Realtors don’t lie! Honest!
“my income taxes”
For every $1 I pay in rent, I get to add $50 to my savings account.
We don’t do much math around here. It’s more like $.35 or less depending on your bracket. It’s a nice little break but let’s not get ridiculous. The ONLY way to win in housing is buying under the mean and PAY WITH CASH.
We take the standard deduction and get a tax reduction without paying the bank for it.
The Hoaxster said “For every $1 of mortgage interest I pay, I get to deduct $2 from my income taxes.”
“Renters don’t get any of these tax advantages.”
With all the leftover money I had from renting I maxed my 401ks and IRA contributions, converted $190,000 into a Roth IRA in 2010 (now my Roths are totalling above $300,000) and my total dividends and capital from my stocks and stock index funds, combined with my income from my tax free municipal bonds nearly cover my total rent. $8,800 more and my combined rent would be all paid for. And I get free maintenance. Got a new dishwasher in my OC rental and a new dishwasher in my Phoenix rental all within the last two months. Brand new! I did not have to pay.
“Housing’s ‘Shadow Inventory’ Still Haunts Banks”
http://news.yahoo.com/housings-shadow-inventory-still-haunts-banks-152949909.html
With tens of millions of excess empty houses and another 35 million additional houses that are just beginning to empty as boomers expire, banks themselves will become haunted houses.
“If you pay current massively inflated asking prices for resale housing, you’ll get ripped off so excessively that you’ll never recover financially.”
You can say that again.
How many suckers have we heard about right here on the HBB that overpaid by $200k or more?
hope and change
‘about half of the nation’s 3,069 county economies are still short of their prerecession economic output, reflecting the uneven economic recovery, according to a new report from the national association of counties.’
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/13/half-of-u-s-counties-havent-recovered-from-recession/
About half ARE recovered back to those levels is what surprises me. Pretty sure those stats for the “recovered” counties are highly managed.
Metro D.C. is recovering quite nicely, thank you:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/09/21/dc_metro_area_is_super_rich_7_of_the_10_ten_counties_are_in_the_dc_suburbs_.html
the most transparent administration in history
‘a public policy group says a review of u.s. terrorist arrests shows the government’s collection of bulk phone records does little to prevent terrorism, adding fuel to a debate over whether the spy program should be ended.’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-13/nsa-data-has-no-discernible-impact-on-terrorism-report.html
We are now on a downward trajectory and have been for a few months. What will others sitting on the fence here do if an upward trajectory was to occur again some times in the spring? Finally just give in? Keep waiting?
I’m curious cause I think there is a real good chance Yellin does keep printing and the word goes out that despite the apparent changes in certain qualification programs they’ll just spike the punchbowl with different liquor. Price direction changing would be a sign for me I suppose.
we need some more service jobs.
“need some more service jobs”
Here you go:
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy created 74,000 net new jobs in December.
Wholesale and retail trade accounted for 70,700 of these jobs or 95.5%.”
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/13/no-jobs-for-americans/
nice homy
Thats about what I figured. more mcjobs and walmart employees selling stuff fresh off the cargo ships.
Where can these workers find affordable housing? They sure cant buy a home in CA on those wages. Are they renters for life?
Prices will have to fall….. and they are.
http://www.infowars.com/median-income-falling/
“Wholesale and retail trade accounted for 70,700 of these jobs or 95.5%.”
I.e. Walmart supply chain jobs…loads of work with no pay.
“You work three jobs? How uniquely American!” — George W. Bush
If that was our holiday retail jobs surge, I do wonder what the January data will look like.
We need more borrowing.
we need some more service jobs.
Yesterday a client said his wife gave up looking for work after two years of emails, interviews, resumes, etc.; blamed it on women with children still at home are frequently absent syndrome.
we need some more service jobs.”
Need more mortgage brokers- I’ve noticed where I live half the basketball dads do this for a living and seem to be doing quite well.
Travel ball is expensive.
I’ve noticed where I live half the basketball dads do this for a living and seem to be doing quite well
It’s like we’ve come full circle. Why work at a job where you actually have to solve problems when you can earn a comfortable living suckering fools into 500K mortgages?
IMHO, the only way it makes sense to buy in this kind of environment is if 1) you have a VERY stable job; 2) you have lots of reasons to want to stay in the area (school age kids for example); and 3) you can buy a place that will work for you for a LONG time (not the typical 7-years, but much longer…15-20+).
This is the wrong time to buy just to buy in order to “get in” to the market (buy the small house to “build equity”, etc.). That time has passed.
No.
The metric is price per square foot. If the price is greater than roughly 65% of construction costs @ $55-60/sq ft(lot, labor, materials and profit), walk away from it.
The concept of a “stable job” is rather magical in a the face of the biggest deflationary spiral ever set up by the likes of man. It is in progress and 20 years will not make you whole. It is likely a generational event. Trust me on this, your kids won’t be happier if you strap yourself with a mountain of debt and you spend their entire youth chained to the grindstone.
“IMHO, the only way it makes sense to buy in this kind of environment is if 1) you have a VERY stable job; 2) you have lots of reasons to want to stay in the area (school age kids for example); and 3) you can buy a place that will work for you for a LONG time (not the typical 7-years, but much longer…15-20+).”
Regarding the 15-20 years, in 99% of American neighborhoods, section 8 and forced integration based on race will destroy your house’s values.
Give it up. You must instead realize you save far more money by renting. And you have so much more opportunities by not owning much and being able to move thousands of miles away in short notice with a break lease. You might even build up $4 million twice as fast as any home moaner would and that will get you an ocean view or gulf view home with no section 8 cRAP neighbors.
‘homeowner associations are approaching lawyers to find out whether they can ban marijuana use, even in homes, much as they do garish paint colors and funky yard art — a question that may have to be settled in court’
http://www.thecannabist.co/2014/01/14/hoas-pot-use-cultivation-likely-volatile-mix/2533/
‘of course, this is not the introduction of a free market in marijuana. rather, it is the state-controlled dream of political progressives who have been pushing for a government overhaul of the weed market for quite some time. at the root of this movement is an ethos of paternalism and extortion. weed must only be legal under the condition that the government can act as ‘partner’ and that it be put in the hands of ‘responsible’ retailers. and thus, big marijuana is born.’
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/13/state-control-of-the-weed-market/
The stock market will only correct once the maximum number of greater fools have been lured into buying on the expectation that the stock market will always go up from now on since no further corrections are possible.
crater!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sell now, or get priced in forever.
Jan. 14, 2014, 9:21 a.m. EST
This is the year to sell your home
The prospect of higher rates is fueling a seller’s market
By AnnaMaria Andriotis, MarketWatch
Patience seems to have paid off for those who’ve postponed putting their homes on the market until this year, real estate analysts say. They stand to pocket the kind of profits not seen since the housing boom.
Prices surged more than 10% in many markets last year, bidding wars are once again common, and homes are routinely going for well over the asking price in some cities. These trends make it seem like a return to the go-go days of the housing boom.
Single-family homes were selling at an average price of $244,300 in November, up 7.2% from a year prior and the highest price since August 2008, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. Homes in major cities are experiencing big jumps in prices: In the 20 largest metro areas, prices in October increased at the highest year-over-year rate since February 2006, according to data released last month by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. “All in all, it’s a good time for people to put their home up for sale,” says Celia Chen, senior director with Moody’s Analytics.
The turnaround comes roughly seven years after the housing bust and amid signs that the economic recovery is picking up. As the unemployment rate drops and consumer confidence increases, more buyers are entering the housing market and sellers are finding that they have more leverage in negotiating the going prices of their homes.
…
Refinance now before your home equity vanishes.
Careful… The people who are “smart” will refi without cashing out the equity. Worse yet, they may do a refi without even resetting the clock. That’s a losing proposition for you.
If I wasn’t so busy and didn’t care about throwing away closing costs I would refi my house, take out a bunch of cash for $300,000 at a high interest (because I don’t have a credit score) then pay the loan off in month JUST TO PISS YOU OFF.
tax time approaching lets see how my mortgage deduction works for me ? First time I’ve had a full year since 2005.
I have some realized stock market gains in 2013 so I think I’m screwed and will be paying yet again. Although about half are long term that should help.
The cost of asset allocation in a bull market- capital gains and taxes
Don’t forget…. the mortgage forgiveness tax break expired in December. You’re on the hook for that.
Don’t forget…. the mortgage forgiveness tax break expired in December. You’re on the hook for that.”
the Short sale thing
I’m glad to be off the hook for deadbeats. Now that’s what I call some “relief”.
Short squeeze is on — run for cover!
Jan. 14, 2014, 6:00 a.m. EST
The ‘most overrated argument’ for equities
Commentary: Are stocks attractive just because bonds are not?
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Should you buy stocks just because there are no attractive alternatives?
That’s the question we all face these days, with cash yielding next to nothing and bonds seemingly such a poor bet. And almost everyone gives a “yes” answer. Sure, the stock market may be overvalued, and bullish sentiment may be at dangerous extremes. But with everything else even less attractive, stocks still come out on top.
Yet, as Humphrey Neill, the father of contrary analysis, famously once said: “When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.”
And the current situation turns out to be no exception.
…
Maybe it would be better to just your keep your money in a savings or checking account, and then use it to buy time.
“and then use it to buy time.”
How much does a year of time cost?
“When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.”
Let’s do a thought experiment. Wages stagnate/decrease but cost of things go up. Real estate stays expensive. Health care goes up in cost. Where do you put any discretionary money? Into things nobody thinks have value. Saving money by not spending. Cash.
Repost cause az dude hijacked my thread with a nonanswer and I’d really like an answer from any who care to:
We are now on a downward trajectory and have been for a few months. What will others sitting on the fence here do if an upward trajectory was to occur again some times in the spring? Finally just give in? Keep waiting?
I’m curious cause I think there is a real good chance Yellin does keep printing and the word goes out that despite the apparent changes in certain qualification programs they’ll just spike the punchbowl with different liquor. Price direction changing would be a sign for me I suppose.
wall street has got the FED by the balls. They can send this stock market into a freefall if they want to. As soon as wall street doesn’t get more money they will throw a hissy fit.
Housing needs low interest rates. If rates go up a lot then it wipes out peoples purchasing power.
This economy has become dependent on rising stock and home values because real jobs are just not there.
This economy has become dependent on borrowed money because earned money is just not there.
thats true
asset inflation has be the key to the supposed recovery we are in, it sure isnt real jobs.
If you dont have assets you have had no part of this recovery.
They should have helped homeowners with checks instead of bailing out over leveraged , gambling banks.
One other related support for the economy has been lost. The refinancing of loans increased the amount available for discretionary spending for many people. With interest rates up, this support for the economy has been lost. Additionally, with the banks able to foreclose people that were living rent free now have to pay rent or pay their house payments. I do not think the recent lower consumer spending is a fluke and I don’t think that most economists are fully considering the impact of these two factors.
This economy has become dependent on borrowed money because earned money is just not there ??
Asset inflation is also a prime driver….
This economy has become dependent on borrowed money because earned money is just not there.’
Inflation is the answer to too much debt, or demand voters work harder and spend less and get booted out of office.
the government will chooses inflation every time as long as they are not in some Euro thing controlled by Germany.
Pushing money on the economy with low rates is like throwing fertilizer in a dark deep pond you don’t know what will end up growing.
Next up the government will target money pushing. I expect higher minimum wages and cut backs in H1B visas.
Expect more big business to move off shore because of this.
Expect more big business to move off shore because of this.
They are doing it anyway.
Inflation is the answer to too much debt, or demand voters work harder and spend less and get booted out of office.
Exactly. In the end the government will try to inflate away its debt not because it is the best solution from an ivory tower perspective but it is the easiest solution for the politician and the easiest way to deflect blame. Oil goes up the Democrats blame the evil oil companies, food goes up it is corporate farmers. The establishment Republicans will blame unions for inflation in other areas. It is never the Federal Reserve creating too much money or Congress spending too much money.
Not at all.
The principal(price) falls when financing costs rise.
Wrong again, renter for life.
When interest rates rise, home prices rise too. Now is the time to buy a home and lock in a low interest rate at a low purchase price. Buy now or be priced out forever.
Silly Donkey.
Don’t worry A Hoax the FED has your back
Get a bad rate? home prices go down ? Just quit paying live rent free for as long as possible and try again.
its not your fault !! Its the governments fault for not protecting you from their rich relatives who run the Banks.
Only people about 25 could be sitting on the fence right now. Late to the party sorts. The rest should be firmly invested with blindfolds on, worn out hookers or way up in the bleachers with their popcorn.
There’s still plenty of us.
A spike in the spring is possible. But Janet can’t dribble a dead cat forever. I’m waiting ’till what I want can be had for what I can comfortably afford. By some coincidence that actually works out to about $50 per sq foot. But more patience will be rewarded.
Asking prices still about 30% away from that now. I could probably make some low offers and get my price now, but I see a disaster brewing and don’t want to be included. I expect to see $30 per sq foot in a year or two.
There it is.
You’ve got more common sense and nose for BS than most.
Jan. 14, 2014, 8:32 a.m. EST
FBI fears Fannie, Freddie getting fleeced: report
By MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The Federal Bureau of Investigation is probing whether traders are front-running mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA -2.88%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC -2.98%) in the swaps market, Reuters reported Tuesday . The report, citing an FBI intelligence bulletin, said some traders were using “unsophisticated tradecraft” such as hand signals and special ring tones as they conspired to rig rates on large orders submitted by Fannie and Freddie. According to the bulletin, the information came from a former high-level employee at a U.S. bank and a Canadian bank employee, Reuters reported. The bulletin didn’t name any of the traders or banks suspected of the activity or whether it might extend beyond the two banks, the report said. Reuters said spokesmen for Fannie and Freddie didn’t immediately return requests for comment, while the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission declined comment.
How rich. Fannie and Freddie exist to funnel money to the FIRE sector, and serve politicians’ agendas. It’s like penalizing a trick or treat’er for taking an extra piece of candy out of a very large bowl.
I’ve been considering the possibility recently that the system itself is broken. I’d thought that the system was sound and that if we could just apply existing laws, big offenders could be stopped. I see that private citizens and small time law breakers are regularly caught and held up as deterrence. BUT, the big offenders, the ones that generate societal consequences, walk free. That’s because they change the system to make their behavior legal.
I think that could be a result of the system being corrupted. Captured. I lay it all at the feet of politicians. They write the laws. Their hunger for cash is bottomless. Between shakedowns of companies and bribes, a new campaign finance system evolved to make it all legal. And that’s where we are today.
Phoney and Fraudie are entirely corrupt organizations that exist solely to rape rob and pillage.
The world is a better place without them.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is probing whether traders are front-running mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA -2.88%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC -2.98%) in the swaps market, Reuters reported Tuesday .”
again !! Unbelievable
Is Hillary investing again? Front running and allocating trades it is how you turn 1,000 into 100,000 with a little help from your friends.
I remember Cattle futures or something
Tyson foods was involved. Arkansas was having trouble with its chicken operations at the time. They avoided any state action by making friendly with Clintons. Their broker who was caught allocating other trades handled both the Tyson account and Hillary’s account.
I’d love to know the Walmart connection.
I remember beginner’s luck or something.
Let’s be sure to dig up old stories about Hilary’s commodities trades, Vince Foster, Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones, etc etc etc just in case Hilary gets the nomination.
“Pending Home Sales Plunge At Fastest Pace Since April 2011″
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-30/pending-home-sales-plunge-fastest-pace-april-2011
With housing demand collapsing to 17 year lows, what in hell did you think prices were going to do?
Current banner ad on HBB for bacon cheddar pinwheels:
http://www.pillsbury.com/recipes/bacon-cheddar-pinwheels/075a1c9c-b343-431f-a12b-d5d98c2a4001?src=SH?nicam3=Banners&nichn3=1486483&niseg3=7956387&nicreatID3=56650543
I prefer a supersize bag of Cheetos and a 2 liter Coke.
Champagne taste on a ramen budget, nice try, renter for life.
My kitchen is bigger than your whole apartment.
What are your losses on it so far? $100k? 200k? More?
Only in your bizarro world would the $100/day of equity I am gaining be considered a loss.
Don’t run.
What are your losses?
My hoax, I thought he lived in his mother’s basement?
‘Current banner ad on HBB for bacon cheddar pinwheels:’
I need a cigarette after looking at those.
http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/CommunicationCenter/DataReports/MortgageMonitor/201311MortgageMonitor/MortgageMonitorNovember2013.pdf
New mortgage monitor from LPS. See page 5 for a map of where the distress remains in the US.
So this tells us some states’ foreclosure moratoriums appear to be more effective at hiding the number of defaulted properties.
If you look on page 26, the reason is judicial vs. non-judicial. Non-judicial states are able to complete the foreclosure process much faster.
Occam’s Razor:
Is the explanation some massive conspiracy that also happens to largely coincide with the foreclosure processes in the various states?
Or is the explanation very transparent? State that allow faster foreclosures, actually foreclose faster and have cleared the inventory faster?
Which simply means foreclosure moratoriums are more effective in non-judicial states.
Bitcoin, make way for Dogecoin!
What will any of these newfangled currencies be worth after about twenty-five more are invented and widely circulated?
Dogecoin transactions outpacing those in bitcoin; here’s why that’s not surprising
January 14, 2014, 12:56 PM
Forums about the virtual currency dogecoin are getting excited about the fact that more dogecoins have been traded in the last 24 hours than bitcoins. In fact, the number of unique transactions in dogecoin — recently 94,310 in the last 24 hours — is more than all other virtual-currency transactions tracked by bitinfocharts.com.
Or, in the words of one Reddit user, “so astound.”
Dogecoin is a virtual currency that takes its name from a viral Internet meme featuring a Shiba Inu and his grammatically incorrect thoughts. It is a derivative of the virtual currency litecoin, which in turn is a bitcoin derivative. That’s possible because bitcoin and litecoin are open-source projects, which allow for copies but also allow for improvements on the originals from those copies.
Here’s why the above statistics aren’t so surprising:
When converted into U.S. dollars, the value of dogecoin transactions doesn’t come near the value of bitcoin transactions. About $518 million was sent in bitcoin in the last 24 hours, compared to approximately $9.92 million in dogecoin, according to bitinfocharts. One dogecoin recently fetched less than one U.S. penny, or $0.00031, according to coinmarketcap.com. The price of bitcoin was recently $824.18 on trading exchange Bitstamp and $917 on Mt. Gox, another exchange.
Digging deeper, it’s evident that the average transaction value in dogecoin is much less than in bitcoin. An average bitcoin transaction is worth about $9,339 compared to an average dogecoin transaction of $105.80. So it would would appear that dogecoin is being used to send smaller amounts of money around the world.
The creators of dogecoin have emphasized that their virtual currency should be used for transactions rather than held as an investment, which is what some people do with bitcoin. “If you hoard all the coins you have in the hope that the value will increase and you will get rich quick you’ll be both disappointed, and hurting dogecoin,” reads a post on the Dogecoin Foundation website, set up by the creators. ”We hope that through this foundation we can encourage the growth and use of dogecoin as the premier currency of the Internet, rather than it existing as a fiat equivalent commodity.”
Charlie Lee, the creator of litecoin, told MarketWatch in November that ease of transactions was one of the reasons he created litecoin. “I wanted to create something that was a bit cheaper in value and easier to transact,” Lee said.
…
Can you use dogecoin to buy Labrador pot in Colorado?
Duuude, we take all kinds of forms of payment
Duuude, we take all kinds of forms of payment
No sh*t or perhaps in the case of Labrador pot, yes sh*t or should we pre-owned pot.
Labrador pot often praised in pot circles: “this is good sh*t”.
Bitcoin, make way for Dogecoin!
What will any of these newfangled currencies be worth after about twenty-five more are invented and widely circulated?
I recall that question being asked not too long ago.
Ah! Bitcoin, Litecoin, meet Dogecoin!
Next? Catecoiin?
Has anyone besides me noticed a bubble in the number of “This ain’t no bubble” articles?
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Jan. 14, 2014, 1:06 p.m. EST
This is not a bursting bubble
By Kevin Marder
Friday’s subpar December jobs number provided market participants with a delayed excuse to exit positions Monday. Also at work was a Goldman Sachs report, which read “S&P 500 valuation is lofty by almost any measure.”
By day’s end, the Nasdaq Composite was saddled with its soggiest outing in over nine weeks. Over the past three weeks, the average has incurred more selling by large investors than buying, as the below chart shows.
Markets tend to advance amid the backdrop of a wall of worry. When a bull market loses its wall of worry, it can sometimes continue higher for a few weeks. But eventually everyone who wanted to get in is in. And there becomes a surplus of sellers, at least short-term, who are looking to exit with the profits racked up from getting in earlier. This causes a reaction or correction.
The Dec. 18 meeting of the Federal Reserve removed some of that worry when the central bank announced the beginning of the taper. Shares then rallied into the end of the year. Since then, the New Year has brought an uneven tone.
Presently, what with historically low interest rates, low inflation, an economy that is picking up steam, and a tame geopolitical climate, the wall of worry is low. It consists of what some believe to be overly rich valuations and what others consider to be a bubble market.
This column has seen a bubble. And this ain’t no bubble.
…
This column has a seen a bubble. In the rear-view mirror.
‘Has anyone besides me noticed a bubble in the number of “This ain’t no bubble” articles?’
Well-well look. I already told you: I deal with the god damn customers so the engineers don’t have to. I have people skills; I am good at dealing with people. Can’t you understand that? What the hell is wrong with you people?
What exactly is it that you would say that you do here?
Las Vegas Housing Inventory Skyrockets 85% Year Over Year
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/nv/las-vegas.htm#city=&time=6M&metric=Inventory&type=0
By Alexander Smith, NBC News contributor
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said world powers including the United States “surrendered before the great Iranian nation” in agreeing an interim nuclear deal with his country, state media reported Tuesday.
Iran reached the deal with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — the U.S., Canada, Britain, China, and Russia– and non-member Germany.
Under the agreement, which was reached in Geneva on Nov. 24 and will come into force on Jan. 20, Iran has promised to curb the most sensitive aspects of its uranium enrichment program in return for some Western sanctions to be lifted.
Speaking to a crowd gathered in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan on Tuesday, Rouhani said: “Do you know what the Geneva agreement means? It means the big powers have surrendered before the great Iranian nation.”
So if you like your nuclear bomb program, you can keep your nuclear bomb program. Period.
What is really sad if we would have just kept the sanctions on longer Iran might have had to give up its program just like Libya did under Bush. However, due to the Obama administration wanting something to get Obamacare out of the headlines we pulled the plug too soon snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
San Diego Housing Prices Fall 6% Year Over Year; Inventory Balloons 48%
http://www.movoto.com/statistics/ca/san-diego.htm
Jan. 14, 2014, 1:20 p.m. EST
Dallas Fed’s Fisher wanted $20 billion taper
By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said Tuesday he wanted the taper to be double the size it was — in other words, $20 billion instead of $10 billion. The Fed is still buying $75 billion worth of Treasurys- and mortgage-backed bonds each month. “But the important thing for me is that the committee began the process of slowing down the ballooning of our balance sheet, which at year-end exceeded $4 trillion. And we began-and I use that word deliberately, for we have more to do on this front-to clarify our intentions for managing the overnight money rate,” he said in a speech to the National Association of Corporate Directors. Fisher, who this year is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, stressed he would “not flinch” from continuing to reduce asset purchase even if a stock market correction were to ensue.
How are the porcine beauticians planning to paint lipstick on this pig?
The end of the mortgage party? Home lending plummets at Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase
January 14, 2014, 12:05 PM
The mortgage party is officially over.
Rising mortgage rates mean that fewer people are refinancing their homes, which bludgeoned fourth-quarter mortgage results at Wells Fargo & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the country’s leading residential lenders, according to earnings reports released Tuesday.
During the fourth quarter, Wells, the No. 1 mortgage lender by market share, funded $50 billion in residential mortgages, down 60% from $125 billion in the year-earlier period. That’s jolting compared to the past couple of years: It’s just the second time in nine quarters that mortgage originations have been below $100 billion. But it’s also bad on a longer time frame: Wells Fargo hasn’t funded just $50 billion in mortgages since 2008, back before it basically doubled its size by buying Wachovia Corp.
Wells Fargo now controls about 19% of the U.S. mortgage market, down from 30% a year ago, according to the trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan, the No. 2 lender, funded $23.3 billion in mortgage loans in the quarter, down 54% from a year earlier. That is the lowest amount since before the financial crisis. Until now, the lowest amount of mortgages funded in recent years was $28.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, the depths of the crisis.
It’s all quite a change from a year ago, when mortgage revenue was still propelling results at both Wells and J.P. Morgan. Fifteen months ago, J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon declared that the housing market “has turned a corner,” and Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf added, “Every quarter, we have more confidence.”
In an interview Tuesday, Tim Sloan, Wells Fargo’s chief financial officer, noted that the bank has warned all along that the refinancing boom wouldn’t last forever.
“This is something we expected,” Sloan said. “Originating $50 billion of mortgages in a quarter is a good fete. It just happens to be a little less than it was in the prior quarter.”
…
Stucco,
We knew this long ago back in early spring 2013 when lenders were handing out pink slips like candy. Oh the irony that lending(sales collapsed 60 days after the announcement(roughly May) and prices have been falling ever since.
For the dishonest, the debt donkeys, the liars and the creeps….
How to hide yourself from the truth about housing on the housing bubble blog.
Go here and download and install firefox.
http://www.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/new/
Next go here, downloaded and install the Joshua tree extension
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B0QMI_-Iy8pod25GTjYwRTFZNlU
Voila….. Now you can obscure and protect yourself from reality. No more squealing like a stealtor. Nor more LIEberal whining. Sit back with a tall glass of Koolade and enjoy.
Jan. 14, 2014, 6:06 a.m. EST
The myth of bank settlements
Opinion: A Senate bill would require more disclosure about what banks really are paying
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
Sen. Elizabeth Warren introduced a bill that would require regulators and companies to provide greater details on bank settlements.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Bank settlements are a bit like those terrifying jail sentences we hear about in criminal cases: If John Doe is convicted of a crime he could serve up to 20 years in jail.
In the end, if Doe is convicted, he serves six months and is on probation for a year or two.
The disparity between possibility and reality makes it easy to wonder if these punishments to the bottom line are worth anything at all. These enormous, eye-popping bank settlements stemming from the financial crisis are chock full of disappointing results. They are retail prices with hidden markdowns.
…
OK,
since I missed moon hoax Monday, Im submiting my question today:
What if any are the health effects of a sustained high oxygen low pressure atmosphere on humans?
The reason I ask is because as far as I know, the Apollo program used between a 4 and 5 PSI high oxygen cabin atmosphere for all their missions.
While the Soviets and the subsequent U.S space shuttle and I$$ always use 14.7 or something close to a simulated Earth Atmosphere.
Ive read that the Apollo use of high oxygen/low pressure was for the purpose of avoiding time in a decompression chamber before and after EVAs; since all space suits use the lower pressure to make them flexible.
In other words, using a 14.7 PSI environment, all EVAs must be planned hours, if not days in advance, which is how things work on the I$$, space shuttle and Soyuz vehicles.
So my question is,
What if any are the health effects of a sustained high oxygen low pressure atmosphere on humans?
and as a follow up, if there are none, why not use it on the I$$ and shuttle and avoid the hassle of decompression time and the stress higher pressures place on seals, valves and other mechanicals?
Additional information below:
http://www.californiasciencecenter.org/Exhibits/AirAndSpace/HumansInSpace/Apollo-Soyuz/Apollo-Soyuz.php
http://ocii.com/~dpwozney/apollo2.htm
I don’t know all of the health effects, but I know some.
- Long-term deterioration of vision
- Osteoporosis
14.7 psi is the pressure at sea level and around 18,000 feet it is normally half that level. Human beings do survive that and they do it with oxygen levels lower than at sea level. A 5 psi level with high oxygen may not be optimal for human beings but it is with human tolerance and certainly is not a problem for a short trip to the moon. So what is your point, the moon mission did not happen because the psi levels were low and the oxygen levels were high?
with=within
Comment by Albuquerquedan
So what is your point, the moon mission did not happen because the psi levels were low and the oxygen levels were high?
————————————————————————–
Calm down Dan.
I was just asking a question; remember?
“if there are none, why not use it on the I$$ and shuttle and avoid the hassle of decompression time and the stress higher pressures place on seals, valves and other mechanicals?”
So what is your point, the moon mission did not happen because the psi levels were low and the oxygen levels were high?
If memory serves me right, after the Apollo 1 fire they increased the pressure and lowered the oxygen levels in the capsule.
In the Apollo 1 fire, they loaded the cabin with 100% Oxygen at over 14.7 psia. 100% at 3 psia is no more dangerous than our regular air. At 16 psia and 100% Oxygen, an oily fingerprint can start a fire. This just proves that rocket scientists are not the brightest crayons in the box.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
14.7 psi is the pressure at sea level and around 18,000 feet it is normally half that level.
——————————————————————————
Dan, its not just the pressure. There is a relationship between ratio and pressure. If you drop the pressure, you must increase the ration of oxygen to nitrogen.
At 3.8 PSI the percentage of oxygen must be much higher in order to get a “normal” breath of air (a normal amount of oxygen)It may be as high as 80%, I don’t know.
Seems to me an air leak at 3 to 5 PSI would be easier to deal with than one at 14.7 PSI?
Maybe this is why Soviet space craft always look so “strongular?”
I agree that is why I do not think that the higher o2 levels was a problem. However, I still do not understand why you are raising this issue at the same time you are commenting about the moon mission being a hoax or more accurately commenting about missing the discussion over a hoax. Is there a connection?
Comment by Albuquerquedan
I still do not understand why you are raising this issue at the same time you are commenting about the moon mission being a hoax or more accurately commenting about missing the discussion over a hoax. Is there a connection?
———————————————————————–
Yes Dan, there is a connection. This is where the smart people are, so this is a good place for me to ask questions. Plus its diverse; people in other countries read this blog. People who grew up under communism read this blog…
Im sorry if my fascination with the moon annoys you, but shouldn’t you really be annoyed that we stopped going?
and didn’t try to stay?
What country you from?
I saw on the history channel or a similar channel we stopped going after we discovered the base of space aliens. They told us to leave and we left, let the Chinese deal with them. JK about believing that but I did see it on one of those basic cable stations.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
I saw on the history channel or a similar channel we stopped going after we discovered the base of space aliens. They told us to leave and we left,
———————————————————————-
What?
aliens?
I ain’t never heard of that?
What color are they?
What color are they?
A color humans cannot see.
Jan. 14, 2014, 1:07 p.m. EST
Monday selloff is a warning sign
Commentary: Market rout was typical of an overbought market
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Monday’s sharp selloff proved that the bears do have some life.
But is it enough to actually cause a noticeable stock market correction? The bulls have gotten a little too full of themselves, pushing the market into an overbought condition that is somewhat unusual. Now we will have to see if the bulls have enough firepower to halt the selling onslaught of Monday and to rescue the market once again.
The broad stock market had become overbought in an unusual way — by going sideways over the last couple of weeks. Usually, when the market goes sideways, that allows for overbought conditions to be alleviated. In fact, this particular bull market leg — stretching back to November 2012 — has done just that several times.
But this time, there was some internal buildup of overbought conditions. These included, but weren’t limited to: Unusually heavy option volume in speculative stocks, increased momentum in stocks that were already stretched by having risen too far, put-call ratios at extremely low levels, and various volatility measures at extremely low levels, too. We’ll enumerate some of these as we describe the current market conditions.
Even with the sell-off Monday, it’s noteworthy that no serious technical damage has yet taken place. The broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX +1.08%) held above support. For SPX, that support is at 1,810. It was a triple resistance area back in November and December (2013), and once it was broken on the upside (as a result of the positive Fed “tapering” announcement in December), it became support — and remains support until broken. There should now be resistance in the 1,830-1,840 area, now that the market has broken down from there, but the more important level is the 1,810 support.
Equity-only put-call ratios are technically on sell signals now. I say “technically” because they have been bouncing around at low levels on their charts for weeks now. At low levels, they are considered to be overbought. This overbought state was exacerbated, even while the broad market moved sideways for the past couple of weeks.
In fact, many of the broad market put-call ratios are trading at such low levels that they haven’t been seen since January of 2011. At that time, the market continued to rally for about another month before a sharp, but short-lived correction took place in February-March, 2011. Then, of course, there was a far more serious correction later in 2011. So the current low levels of put-call ratios is a warning sign — but unless these put-call ratios can actually start trending higher, rather than just wiggling around at the bottom of their charts, they won’t be seriously bearish.
Market breadth was poor yesterday, and that pushed the breadth indicators that we watch onto sell signals (just barely). Breadth conditions had been very overbought a few weeks ago. When the market moved sideways during early January, the breadth overbought conditions did abate somewhat, but they were never completely eliminated. Now they are on sell signals. These are very short-term indicators, in general, and they need to be joined by some other indicators before an intermediate-term sell signal can be generated.
Volatility indexes (VIX -7.53% XX:VXO -8.88%) have been at very low levels for about a month. This is another sign of an overbought condition. VIX traded below 12 on Monday before reversing upward, and VXO has traded near 11. Even so, the stock market can rally while these overbought conditions exist. For VIX to truly turn bearish, it would need to at least exceed the modest peak of December. That means VIX would have to close above 14.50 in order to say that it is in an uptrend. An uptrend in volatility is bearish for stocks.
…
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2014/01/13/trends-to-watch-multi-family.html?ana=e_du_pub&s=article_du&ed=2014-01-14&page=all
This PC article conveniently leaves up the fact that Northern Nigeria is the Islamic portion of the country:
http://news.msn.com/world/dozens-arrested-for-being-gay-in-north-nigeria
The connection between Islam and that story is clear for anyone not blinded by political correctness:
http://wikiislam.net/wiki/Persecution_of_Homosexuals_(Nigeria)
Persecution of Homosexuals
Its the state (hiding behind religion) that is responsible for this phenomenon.
Its nothing more than statism (hiding behind religion). Straight married men are the only portion of a states population that produces more than it consumes. The healthy state wants this population as large as possible. Therefore, homosexual behavior must be attacked and punished; lest it grow.
Most healthy states see homosexuality as materialistic and solipsistic; like women and children.
Men must be trained to sacrifice , labor and protect everyone else but themselves. Any man who will not seek, protect and serve a wife, may also be unwilling to protect, serve and defend the state?
A healthy state needs healthy men because;
even though a man is expendable,
men are not.
*thats one small step for a man, and one gi… aaaaaaaaah!*
“Straight married men are the only portion of a states population that produces more than it consumes.”
It’s a thankless job, but someone has to do it.
P Bear and Uncle Fed
Thank you for your interesting bond /QE / interest discussion.
Can you see where M1 and M2 work into this. For example, the velocity of money is in two phases - for lack of a word “commercial” and QE. Commercial is still not moving at traditional levels and when mixed with QE supply it is even further reduced.
And money supply also appears in two phases - “available for commercial uses” and QE for restricted uses. About half of the QE is being devoured in covering the federal deficiency while the other half appears to be back stopping mbs which appears to have helped in creating another bubble.
Can you see the slow velocity (with interest rates rising why will anyone refi), the wasted debt coverage dollars, or the possibility of a housing price reduction adversely affecting today’s interest rates?
I think “easing” has more than run it’s course and will become an “exodus” as soon as Ms Yellen recognizes the reins that have been put on lending thru low interest rates. I think more dollars have encouraged deflation and certainly did not speed up the M1 so as to influence rates.
Why would any banker in his right mind want to lend out money at such dismally low interest rates, especially given the prospect of deflation?
Because his real rate of return has never been higher.
It is the volume he lacks.
“This underwater mortgage bailout program,” he said later, “is on life support.”
Eminent Domain: A Long Shot Against Blight
By SHAILA DEWANJAN.
Jan 11, 2014
You can’t fight city hall, the saying goes. But Gayle McLaughlin, the mayor of Richmond, Calif., a city of 100,000 souls, would tell you that fighting Wall Street is harder. Even for city hall.
Ms. McLaughlin has a plan to help the many Richmond residents who owe more money on their houses than their houses are worth, but it’s one that banks like Wells Fargo, large asset managers like Pimco and BlackRock, real estate interests and even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants, have tried to quash. Her idea involves a novel use of the power of eminent domain to bail out homeowners by buying up and then forgiving mortgage debt.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/business/in-richmond-california-a-long-shot-against-blight.html - -
Money talks, BS walks.
send all the deadbeats a check. cheaper than dealing with the courts and ambulance chasers.
“send all the deadbeats a check”
They already did.
well Surprise Surprise:
Allen West: Obama ‘abjectly despises’ whites
‘How long will it be before ‘you people’ realize’
http://www.wnd.com/2014/01/allen-west-obama-abjectly-despises-whites/
Sorry NYCdj, could not resist:
‘Negrodamus (played by Paul Mooney) – a black prophet and fortune teller (a satire of Nostradamus). In the sketch, people (mostly white) ask him various questions such as “Negrodamus, why do white people love Wayne Brady so much?” to which he replies “White people love Wayne Brady because he makes…Bryant Gumbel look like Malcolm X.” (This clip was later shown as a drug hallucination in the Wayne Brady sketch.)’
dangohmyword, ouch coffee up the nose….thanx
Somehow, I just can not have any dislike for this guy. He figured out Pet Rock 2.0 and people gave him money anyway.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/beanie-baby-creator-learn-fate-tuesday-tax-evasion-charges-article-1.1578879
Do you wear QE3 beer goggles when investing?
Beer goggles crack from Boockvar hits home with Dallas Fed’s Fisher
January 14, 2014, 6:07 PM
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher noted a somewhat off-color metaphor from Lindsey Group’s Peter Boockvar in a speech Tuesday.
Fisher cited Boockvar’s comment from Jan 2 that:
“…QE [quantitative easing] puts beer goggles on investors by creating a line of sight where everything looks good…”
MarketWatch talked to Boockvar after Fisher’s speech to ask what he thought. Here’s what Boockvar said:
“Richard Fisher is the only Fed official with market experience, from his hedge fund days, so he is worried about the Fed’s policies affecting the markets. He is doing what a prudent central banker should be doing.”
“When the Fed pumps $1 trillion a year into the economy it creates bubbles. There is a lot of froth in certain markets, such as Treasuries and junk bonds.”
…
I know it is not exactly the same but the big boys got into trouble when they were leveraged 30 plus in the stock market. Now, we have about 112 OZs in the paper market for every one Oz of physical gold. Could get interesting in a hurry: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2014/01/comex-warehouse-potential-claims-per.html