The Housing Bubble

This train of posts is a little too encoded for me. I can guess the fruity overload, and I guess that the fruit and Carl the consultant are doing a team gig for fixed-duration contract. (Intial setup for a Chinese cloud/towers/broadband, or similar? Help me out here.) But what would the individual employee fruits “know” that would make them up and abandon the engagement, risking demotion/pink slip? Chinese client threatens not to pay? Chinese client preparing to backstab? Chinese pollution too much? Setting up Chinese clouds is a dead-end job? This is just too far out of my area.

I didn’t mean they were leaving the company or the project. Only that they were leaving China. They dropped in to check on us for a bit and make sure their stuff connected to our stuff and now they’re off for the USA again. Meanwhile my company tends to take a “stay until it all works right and then come home” philosophy. Which is fine except they’re all going to come back in February and expect us back with them…which doesn’t work well if we’ve been here the whole time they’ve been gone.

Meh, once China has the technology and can do it themselves, you’ll be on the way home.

Maybe so. But I’m noticing a pattern here. They are smart and motivated…but everything successful (by our standards) in this country seems to be run by people from outside the country. It’s almost like they are still central planners at heart that have succeeded by allowing somebody else to call the shots and use their labor. I don’t know at what point that changes. I think even today if they confiscated it all and ran it themselves it wouldn’t work. Just the vibe I get.

“It’s almost like they are still central planners at heart that have succeeded by allowing somebody else to call the shots and use their labor.”

Whoa. Now this is a really heavy statement there, and I sort of had a realization from it about globalization. Thank you. That was a heckuva insight.

It’s almost like they are still central planners at heart

All of those empty high rises and ghost cities would seem to back that up.

“All of those empty high rises and ghost cities would seem to back that up.”

What IS the point of all of that? I just don’t understand it. Are they expecting an influx of people? Build it and they will come? Or did they just do it because they can?
I mean, somebody HAS to be losing money on all that.

Whatever the case, globalization is just depressing. Really depressing.

Well, I guess I should look on the bright side and invest in companies that make feel-good pharmaceuticals.

“It’s almost like they are still central planners at heart that have succeeded by allowing somebody else to call the shots and use their labor.”

Don’t forget the technology transfer facilitated through spying on other countries’ R&D. (Of course if you can afford to simply import the technologists for as long as needed, who needs to spy anymore?)

“I mean, somebody HAS to be losing money on all that.”

As in other bubbles (e.g. the U.S. edition of the Housing Bubble), the losses are not immediate, and there are gainers and bagholders involved.

the losses are not immediate, and there are gainers and bagholders involved ??

And the gainers may be leaving;

“Sun Ming, who lives in Hangzhou, China, was here last week shopping for a house. She said she’s looking in Cupertino to be near a friend who recently bought a home there, and plans to tell several other friends to think about buying a home in Silicon Valley. She said she’s looking for homes under $2 million.”

“But I’m noticing a pattern here. They are smart and motivated…but everything successful (by our standards) in this country seems to be run by people from outside the country. ”

Yup, I’ve noticed the same thing when we outsource IT work. Give a clear statement of tasks and the work will be done quickly, efficiently and effectively. Give “room for interpretation” or a nebulous task; watch is spin around endlessly. We typically have our US teams write the detailed requirements (expected inputs, outputs, etc) and then hand it over to the overseas team for programming. All the project management and design comes from the US. I think that many software companies (at least those where I have viability into the structure) work a similar way. The schools in India and China seem to be very good at teaching the “structure” but very bad at teaching how to come up with ideas/solutions to unknown problems. That seems to be the one area where American schools, for whatever reason, still have the upper hand.

LOL
Gainers are leaving to be bagholders in another country. They will return back to praising communism after they find out what crony capitalism has in store for them.

“And the gainers may be leaving;…”

Or just arriving (in America)…

… as newly-minted bagholders.

I knew about the ghost cities in semi-rural areas, but I was not expecting ghost towers in the cities themselves. According to repeated theorizing on HBB, with all that empty inventory, housing/condo prices should have craaaatered in Shanghai, but rent is $8K/month.

In the US the reason is obvious: mark-to-market allows banks to keep inventory in the shadows until it falls apart. Do banks have mark-to-market in China?

“but rent is $8K/month”

That explains why they’re empty. Silly Donkey.

That seems to be the one area where American schools, for whatever reason, still have the upper hand.

It think it might also be cultural. Originality is highly regarded in the west. In Asia, where you are expected to conform, not so much. Not saying that there aren’t creative people over there, but you don’t see it as much.

Can you think of any high profile Asian rock artists? They are few and far between.

That seems to be the one area where American schools, for whatever reason, still have the upper hand.
There are plans launched to ship 1000’s of Chinese high school age students to small city public high schools all over the midwest to complete their junior and senior years of high school, and so to graduate with US high school diplomas & so qualify for admission to US colleges. These students have already completed years of English language training. The parents of these students will pay tuition to the public school districts similar to that paid for private schools. American families are volunteering to serve as host families. Traverse City Michigan is one district doing this.

as newly-minted bagholders ??

Not when their bags are full of cash….I don’t think they give a rats a$$ to some of these buyers if it goes up or down in value…How else can you explain some of the transactions we see starting with Manhattan or San Francisco…

What is the point of all the building? Municipality profits. Govt party owns land worth little. They build a 25 story apartment building and the land value increases 25 fold (never mind no one wants to live there). Govt has “created wealth”, then borrows against wealth (higher value land) and all the party bosses get big raises. It all works great until the debt crushes them….a point which seems to be arriving. Sound familiar? NINJA city….no income, no jobs, no assets…..it will be an interesting decade for china!

no income, no jobs, no assets…. ??

Which is precisely why their wealthy are depositing the cash all over the world…Not just China either…Spain comes to mind…So does France…

In other words, they are training young Chinese to be Americans, hoping to bring that originality and creativity back to improve China? Do they realize that the same originality and creativity which fostered American innovation also fosters the American tendency to not care so much about “face” and to rebel against conformity and suppressive government?

Alternatively, I assume they’re sending the smart kids, not the drones. Kids who are smart enough to pop out an anchor baby while in that American college and therefore will never return to China. So China won’t have to deal with the rebellious spirit, but won’t get the American innovative wisdom either.

What’s the advantage for China.

Can you think of any high profile Asian rock artists?

Anytime I hear that type of question, I think back to the 2008 Opening Ceremonies for the Beijing Olympics. Their signature accomplishment was lining up thousands of people to move exactly in unison. I always wondered what they did to the poor artists who were a few millimeters or a half second off. Were they sent to forced labor camps, or worse? Was the family shamed for a generation?

Comment by oxide
2014-01-16 08:24:22
I knew about the ghost cities in semi-rural areas, but I was not expecting ghost towers in the cities themselves. According to repeated theorizing on HBB, with all that empty inventory, housing/condo prices should have craaaatered in Shanghai, but rent is $8K/month.

In the US the reason is obvious: mark-to-market allows banks to keep inventory in the shadows until it falls apart. Do banks have mark-to-market in China?

Oxide: Banks in China are state-owned. Land in China is state-owned. Americans usually assume that other countries work in the same way as us, but we are quite unusual with the way we do things. Most people in this world take it for granted that the government will decide the price-point for a given product, since the government owns all things and people. That’s how it is in communist China. People are fooling themselves to believe that China has a capitalist system.

Which is precisely why their wealthy are depositing the cash all over the world…Not just China either…Spain comes to mind…So does France…”

Ben Bernake’s QE cash see how it flows around and ends up in unexpected places.

“The schools in India and China seem to be very good at teaching the “structure” but very bad at teaching how to come up with ideas/solutions to unknown problems. That seems to be the one area where American schools, for whatever reason, still have the upper hand.”

You can’t teach that. It’s a cultural thing. Nobody in India/China dares step outside the box. In America, we’re encouraged to think outside the box.

I’ve seen this happen a million times as well. Tell an Indian coder you want X to happen after Z happens, it will happen. Tell him you want him to come up with a strategic plan of when X should happen and you’ve just lost a month of design work that will have to be redone.

Hey Overtaxed,

Nice Job getting on the Tom Leykis show! For any HBBers that don’t know, Tom is the absolute remedy to Suzanne and can be found at http://blowmeuptom.com - highly recommended for the guys here.

Yesterday Tom devoted an entire segment to a letter from Overtaxed about having kids and their financial impact. Unfortunately, he left the “the” off of thehousingbubbleblog.com and has been directing traffic to the squatter site. I posted a correction and am awaiting moderation approval, but I’m sure if more of you went to his site or called into the show with the correction his listeners would greatly benefit from this site and vice versa.

If that letter was anything like yesterday’s bits bucket, Overtaxed is in for some serious Suzanning from a little over half the commenters.

I don’t see any mention of the thread at the link you posted. Luckily, that guy is too dum to even get the link right to this blog. The last thing we need is more irresponsible, mysoginistic boys in mens’ clothing coming over here. It makes the blog seem less credible to have dweezers on it.

Wow, sounds like someone got the shiite end of the marriage deal. How sad for you to not understand the picture but resort directly to ad hominem - the last refuge of one who has lost the argument.

Your purile attempts to invalidate our movement by name calling like “boys in men’s clothing” will not succeed.

The social contract has abandoned men.

We’re now relagated to our “man caves” and other small spots while women and kids have the run of (and control of) the house.

We’re given nearly ZERO rights in family court, stripped of our status as parents and our part in the decision-making process for our children and turned into “visitors” in our children’s lives with mere “visitation rights.”

Yet we’re expected to pay for (nearly) everything.

We’re expected to register for the draft to be turned to cannon fodder at the politicians’ whim.

We’re told we’re at fault for women’s lot in life, yet there are more women in college, more women earning degrees, and once you factor out the choices of childbirth and marriage, it turns out that women already outearn men in 147 out of 150 American metropolitan areas.

We’re constantly depicted in the media as incompetent buffons, or worse - completely unrealistic heroic archetypes(Rambo, Superman, etc).

Tell us Uncle Fed, is there ANY upside whatsoever for a given male to becoming this “man” that you seem to hold in such high regards?

That’s an honest question - what exactly is the upside?

Tom stands up for the males that have the courage to acknowledge this truth and act rationally upon it - namely by boycotting the social contract, marriage, and all the other accoutrements of your so-called “manhood.”

I’ll thank you kindly for not mistaking our rational response to the complete lack of incentives as some kind of moral shortcoming or infantile regression.

It isn’t.

Hey Biggie:

I don’t really care about you and your miserable life. I’m just glad that this blog is not going to be overrun by male children with chips on their shoulders. YAY!

Oh cry me a river Biggie. I rule my world. Grow a pair and stand up on your hind legs, you simpering wuss!

“Which is precisely why their wealthy are depositing the cash all over the world…Not just China either…Spain comes to mind…So does France…”

So do the Japanese real estate investors who lost their shirts paying top dollar for U.S. properties in the early 1990s.

Not to suggest that anything similar might befall China…

“In other words, they are training young Chinese to be Americans, hoping to bring that originality and creativity back to improve China?”

It’s going to backfire, as once Chinese people get a taste of American freedoms, they tend to stay around and take top jobs in the corporate world or academia. Take my word for it, as I am surrounded by Chinese-Americans.

I don’t know that it can work. They may be willing to train their people to think like Americans, but I don’t think they are willing to give them the same freedom and opportunity as Americans. I’m not sure they even understand how to. Therefore I don’t think it will do any good. They will go elsewhere or they will become “problems” at home. The system can not allow the necessary ingredients and remain in power.

Co-dependence?

On the bright, it means we probably won’t ever nuke each other. Oxen don’t gore each other.

we probably won’t ever nuke each other
不错!

On the bright, it means we probably won’t ever nuke each other. Oxen don’t gore each other.

It was thought before World War I that the European nations would not go to war due to their extensive trade. Needless to say they soon debunked that theory.

It was thought before World War I that the European nations would not go to war due to their extensive trade. Needless to say they soon debunked that theory.

I didn’t say no war (we are at war, it just isn’t being fought with guns) just not nuke each other. Of course Mutually Assured Destruction might be what really keeps it at bay.

I didn’t say no war (we are at war, it just isn’t being fought with guns) just not nuke each other. Of course Mutually Assured Destruction might be what really keeps it at bay.

Colorado, I understood you but World War I was a real war fought with guns that was not deterred by the fact that Europe had become interdependent economically. Additionally, Japan needed our raw materials prior to WW II and economic sanctions led quickly to a “real” war so these economic connections can sometimes foster real war. Finally, you see China making aggressive military moves in Asia to claim territory despite strong economic ties with the same countries it has the territorial dispute.

So in sum, I do not think that economic ties really prevent wars. Human beings are quite capable of trading with people one day and killing them the next, and then going back to trading. It is sad but that is what history teaches us.

Some of it, especially security, are overstaffed to the point that I assume there is some “make work” going on.

That is what I have heard about policies in China, they promote a lot of “make work”, which kind of explains all those empty buildings.

That is what I have heard about policies in China, they promote a lot of “make work”, which kind of explains all those empty buildings.

That’s why you see so many pictures of one person shoveling furiously while there are five others standing around.

And your losses grow by the day.

http://goo.gl/RwGdcY

Another day of World of Warcraft and Hot Pockets.

Feels like life is passing you by.

Paying real estate taxes and doing my own maintenance for 34 years has basically the same effect.

Amy is a compliant DebtDonkey.

Keep renting HA. Great idea because you just improve my net worth with every rental payment. Thank you so much. And thank you for encouraging everyone else to be a rent donkey….your words. I consider my residents to be clients and provide them with the best services.

Your Debt Donkeyism is your problem.

Labor on Donkey.

Tresho, if the taxes and maintenance are too much of a prison cell for you, why not sell and rent a nice little studio apartment? Oh right, then you’d be paying rent, which includes taxes anyway. And an HOA fee, which kinda cancels out maintenance being “free.”

Nor are you locked into doing your own maintenance. I assume there are plenty of handyman/contractors who would be happy to set up a turnkey/single-phonecall maintenance contract with you. It’s up to you to decide whether not paying rent and paying maintence fees is less advantageous than paying rent and paying an HOA fee.

I don’t get why people assume rent does not include taxes and maintenance. Just because it is not itemized like a homeowner does not mean it is not being paid for. In fact, I would say renters are overcharged maintenance prices due to the fact that landlords have a built in “insurance” cushion in case things do go wrong and needs fixing.

Rent a place and you’ll be doing your own maintenance anyway unless you want to live in a dump.

I fixed almost everything as I rented 4 different places for my 6 years between selling and re-buying.

Fixed sliders, fixed toilets, fixed sprinklers, fixed floods, replaced outlets, sometimes I’d get paid for supplies sometimes I didn’t.

First place in Phoenix I took back all my drip fittings when they wouldn’t give me my deposit back, come to think of it that’s not all well never mind…

Right….. You’re forgetting the roof, new asphalt, boiler, siding just to name a few you conveniently forget to include in your losses.

Cactus, it all depends where you are with respect to what tenants actually do…I was the same way–never called my landlord for a thing unless it was big (broken dishwasher is the only thing I can recall, etc.).

My reason? Our rental was in a great location (10 minute walk to a nice main street), and the landlord would never sell it out from under us (he was the neighbor and used part of the rental’s backyard for a big garden)–he has owned the place for a few decades already. I didn’t want to give him any excuse to find a new tenant.

And it worked. We stayed there for 7 years, he barely raised our rent…when we moved the next guy paid 30% more than we were paying.

If we were in a market with rentals on every street, I’d be calling the landlord for everything…but this place rented in the same morning it was posted on Craigslist when we got it, and within an hour of posting on Craigslist when we were leaving. The landlord would have ZERO concern with finding a new tenant if we were a hassle.

You know as much about taxes as you do about real estate. That is to say, nothing.

Back to the topic Slithers.

Only 10% of you mortgage paying debt donkeys itemize.

So, are you saying that if one itemizes, buying might make sense?

No. Where did you read that?

Then why did you even raise the issue? Your response should have been something like:

“When home prices are 150% higher than the long-term trendline, it doesn’t matter what you can deduct. Buying is ALWAYS a loss…donkey.”

C’mon, stick with the script!

I didn’t. Slithers did. Catch up.

At $50-$60/square foot(lot, labor, materials and profit), it can’t be replacement cost.

Its a strange phenomenon for certain. Once they’ve crossed the line to debtorship, they become dogmatic.

What I’m saying is that as long as there are jobs to support households which can combine into an income of about $40K (not difficult), then the price point for entry-level houses is going to be around $100K. And that’s using the old-school rule of 2.5x, which was developed when interest rates were 7%. Why bother to sell for less? At those low price points, the FB — or the bank — can afford to hold on indefinitely while they wait for the $40K+ couple to show up and buy.

The same thing happened with my rent. As long as there are multiple incomes or government cheesecheck households, that will dictate market rent. Singles have no choice but to pay the same. That was one of the main impetuses (impetusi?) for my pulling the trigger.

“Why bother to sell for less?”

Because they’re not going to sell.

When Obama gets his $15/hr minimum wage wish that $40K couple will be a $60K couple. And home prices will adjust upward. The $100K starter will be a $125K starter and on up the food chain.

Good thing we didn’t elect that Mormon, eh renters?

When Obama gets his $15/hr minimum wage wish that $40K couple will be a $60K couple.

Only if both work 40 hr/week, Obamacare’s already got them down to 29.

In the meantime, prices continue to fall. Check it out.

San Diego Housing Prices Down YoY; Inventory Balloons

http://www.movoto.com/san-diego-ca/market-trends/

Worry not. Soon enough Obama will decide unilaterally that everyone must get paid for 40 hours even if they only work 29. Because…FAIRNESS!!

“Good thing we didn’t elect that Mormon, eh renters?”

That mormon was gonna start another trillion dollar war in Iran.

With that in mind, with 25 MILLION excess empty houses and demand for housing cratered to 1997 levels, what do you think is going to happen to housing prices?

Blue, the employment figures are showing that the country is only able to create service jobs. Thus, to sustain a recovery we need to create service jobs paying more than the minimum wage. Realtors and hookers are two obvious choices. But in I splitting hairs?

Correction: But am I splitting hairs?

Enough with this nonsense about service jobs being somehow not as good as “real” manufacturing jobs. It’s 2014 not 1950. A software engineer making $150K is as much of a “real” job as someone making $10/hr working on an assembly line.

What is nonsense is thinking that this recovery has created lots of jobs in the service economy paying $150,000 a year, even when you throw doctors and lawyers into the mix all those low paying retail and fast food jobs which have been created still amount to service economy jobs paying less than manufacturing:

http://www.esa.doc.gov/Reports/benefits-manufacturing-jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-did-the-hiring-in-2013-and-what-they-pay-2014-01-16

From the article:

Now the not-so-good news. The economy still hasn’t recovered all the jobs lost in the Great Recession, even though the working-age (16-64) population has grown by about 5 million over the past five years.

The U.S. has to add an additional 1.18 million jobs to match its prior peak of 138.1 million, set in the first month of 2008.

Nor is the quality of the jobs created the stuff of an economy running on all cylinders. More than half of all new positions added in 2013 appear to pay $18 an hour or less, a review of government data shows. That’s just three-fourths of the national average of all American workers.

If you’re still renting past age 25 that’s just failure to launch.

Your net worth is a handful of pennies and pocket lint.

Your losses. Deal.

Your losses. Deal.

Dude, don’t you get it? “Amy Hoax” isn’t a realtor, it’s just someone yanking your chain to get a rise out of you.

Hoax or not. You don’t get it?

Oh I think he knows. It’s cool…Amy is a Crue fan.

Amy is another personality of HA!!!!

Amy is another personality of HA!!!!

That would explain a lot. Create imaginary opponents, defeat them and declare yourself the champion.

Hey, why not? If they can build ghost cities in China, it’s all good.

That would be cross posting.

A conspiracy!

I think Amy is someone else’s fake realtor, but HA is playing along.

Amy is another personality of HA!!!!”

its all good they drive up the number of posts so Ben can sell ads on his blog

‘Sweet Apartment Alabama…doesn’t have the same ring to it either.’

harsh

its called leverage, using other peoples money. Zero down is most practical for broke homeowners wanting into the casino.

its called leverage DebtDonkeyism.

“…its called leverage, using other peoples money.”

I get that. I was pointing out that nobody in their right mind (or otherwise) makes an $80K downpayment. That would amount to throwing good money after bad. And besides that, I’d be willing to be good money that a vanishingly small percentage of U.S. home buyers have $80K socked away as aa potential downpayment.

“…to bet good money…”

Keep posting the doom and gloom and telling yourself it’s a depression out there. Washington D.C. has seen some of the greatest growth of median household incomes for the past several years. The smart buyer will snap up that townhome now with a $80,000 down payment, because within 2-3 years that down payment will be worth $200,000.

How can that be with asking prices slashed 10% YoY and falling?

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Hybla-Valley-home-value/r_244509/#metric=mt%3D18%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D8%26r%3D244509%26el%3D0

How is an annual increase of 13.6% considered falling?

http://www.zillow.com/dc/home-values/

And what do you care anyway, it’s not like you could ever afford any of those homes. Even if you got that job at Arby’s the most you could ever hope for is sharing a studio with two roommates.

Washington D.C. has seen some of the greatest growth of median household incomes for the past several years.
I would expect no less from the home base of the Vampire Squid.

Your beef is with Realtors. They reported the data you were provided.

“That’s a standard Realtor® deception which ignores the opportunity cost of $80K sunk into a depreciating money pit,”

Fine. Add that in and say you can return 10% a year on that. $8K which is $5K after tax. You’re still ahead buying vs renting when taking the mortgage and property tax deduction.

And 10% is being veeeeeery generous as an average return over 30 years.

“I’d be willing to be good money that a vanishingly small percentage of U.S. home buyers have $80K socked away as aa potential downpayment.”

It’s socked away. It’s equity in an existing home. Funny how that works, huh?

There is no “return” on a depreciating asset like a house. It’s an expense counted as a loss year after year.

“It’s socked away. It’s equity in an existing home. Funny how that works, huh?”

It’s really hilarious when dupes realize the equity they thought they were socking away vanishes and they find themselves hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars underwater.

Check out poor Eddie Murphy’s estate, for a howler: Seems he paid $6 million for it, Zillow sez it’s worth $4.2 million, but whatever dumb-as-a-board owner is trying to sell it is now asking $12 million. How can an Ownership Society member possibly be such a retard?

Not at current asking prices as they are 250% higher than long term trend.

I dunno know HA, we’ve been on HBB for a long time, and ISTM that this “250% higher than long term trend” is becoming a long term trend in itself.

Then refute it. I understand why you don’t like it but it’s not something that you can change and I think we all understand why you don’t like it and why you would like it to be different.

Refute… what? That this higher price plateau is a short term trend? Prove that higher prices are a long-term trend?

Let me tell you what our long-term trends are:

1. Two income single-family households. Possibly three if you take in Grandma.
2. Relatively low (sub 6%) mortgage interest rates.
3. Down payments at 10%, or less if you pony up for FHA fees.
4. Multiple-income rental units, forcing households to buy to escape the spiraling rent.
5. And all the time, Blackstone and flippers chomping at the bit just waiting until their ROI calculators tell them to rush in with cash.

The bubble came and went, but all of those trends are still there, and all of them support higher prices… or at least they prevent your precious craaaaater. Until there is a major change in those trends, we’re on the same inflation adjusted plateau that we were in ~2002.

Refute what you deny. You don’t need an explanation. It’s right there in front of you.

It’s fine to buy a house, but just not at bubble pricing. Also, if you like the idea of being able to move whenever it suits you, then you should only purchase cash-flowing rental properties. If it doesn’t cash-flow, then it’s BUNK*.

==================
* That’s right, I said “bunk”, like in the eighties. I love that word more than language itself.

“It’s fine to buy a house, but just not at bubble pricing.”

Absolutely correct because that is the truth. However housing is bubble priced irrespective of location. It is today, it was yesterday, last year and the entire last decade. I know that doesn’t align with what everyone wants but like I said yesterday… I want it to be 72 and sunny in Providence RI today.

Well that becomes a question, what would you call a bubble? You could say that we had three events. The first event was early 90’s when two income households became the norm and house prices adjusted to higher plateau in order to suck up that second income. The second event was ~2001 when banks had ramped up taking advantage of the repeal of Glass-Steagal, and when interest rates were dropped. Prices again adjusted to a higher plateau as people bought the same house for the same PITI, just a higher price. The third event was the 2003-2008 frenzy bubble. That wasn’t a plateau, that was a peak. The Zillow graph looked remarkably like Mt. Ranier.

As we all know, the frenzy bubble popped, and I saw that even in my nabe. 30-40% drop. But we still have the lower interest rates (2001) and we still have two income households (early 90’s). Therefore we should still be on the ~2001 plateau, inflation adjusted. Which we generally are, at least Where The Jobs Are.

Are you saying that we’ve been in a bubble since 2001, too high to buy, and that we should have all stopped buying in 2001? That’s 13 years through a 30 year mortgage.

Or maybe we’ve been in a bubble since the early 90’s, and that we should have all stopped buying in 1992? That’s 22 years through a 30 year mortgage, and if you did you extra payment trick, that’s ALL the way through the mortgage.

So, what should I do to satisfy you all? Protest these bubbles by stomping my little foot and holding my breath and waiting until interest rates go up and we go back to single-income households so that we return to the prices of the vaunted Historical Norm? Paying rent the entire time, of course, never minding that renting has skyrocketed past the Historical Norm too for the same reason of two-income householdes, and/or gov cheesechecks? By that time I’ll be DEAD.

No no…. REFUTE what I stated which you denied.

Does that calculator take a decrease in price into effect where you bought much higher? If not it is junk. Ask those millions of people still way underwater from the post up above.

You think you’ve been made whole by the recent runup. You’ve not been made whole, you have been made into a hole.

‘A consumer based economy without consumers. Yeah, that should work just fine.’

I see many consumer-phile companies as dinosaurs. Here, you buy groceries, gasoline, clothes, and then entertainment expenses plus maybe work-related stuff. How often do people upgrade on things? After a while, you have enough for the time being until Madison Avenue convinces us we lack things.

I know right. How dare radio stations make money selling advertizing? We should have govt take over all radio and TV, that way we won’t have to worry about ads.

I know right. How dare radio stations make money selling advertizing?

They can sell all the obnoxious advertising they want, but it makes their product irritating. I have no problems with ads, but have you actually listened to broadcast radio lately? The ads are grating and obnoxious (and loud!). And did I mention that they play the same cr@p over and over and over?

I’m under no obligation to listen to their jarring ads and there are alternatives that don’t involve the government (nice strawman, BTW). This isn’t the 1960’s. There are now CD’s, MP3 players and satellite radio.

Santa Ana’s in January? I don’t remember that from when I lived there.

yea it was nearly 90F in Oxnard yesterday

less than 10% humidity Really nice at the beach though

google point Mugu Beach With this clear dry air you can see the Channel islands very clearly

So you get barbecued by the ambient air and Fukushima fallout in the land of fruits and nuts.

Good to know.

Cactus, thanks for the pointer to Point Mugu State Park! My Long Beach son and his running club go to San Diego one weekend a month to train. Some hills there, I guess. I asked him if he had heard about Point Mugu, since it’s closer. It looks to have hills as well. Can’t hurt to have a choice of places for running, biking and camping! Thanks again.