Bits Bucket for January 17, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Did you dump your bond investments yet?
Not everybody has dumped yet.
Japan and China hold a record amount of U.S. Treasurys
January 16, 2014, 5:49 PM
Japan and China accumulated record amounts of U.S. Treasurys in November, a sign that demand for the haven U.S. debt among those economic giants remains robust even as interest rates rise.
Treasury International Capital data on Thursday showed that Chinese holdings of Treasurys increased by $12.2 billion in November, following a $10.7 billion gain the prior month. That brought total holdings to a record $1.32 trillion, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Japanese holdings of Treasurys advanced by $12.0 billion, after declining by $3.7 billion in October. Japan’s debt holdings totaled a record $1.19 trillion, according to The Journal.
As benchmark interest rates rise, the question is whether foreign demand for U.S. debt will hold up. If so, it could help cap the rise in rates. The 10-year Treasury note (10_YEAR +0.07%) yield traded at 2.84% on Thursday.
…
who will be defaulted on first?
Anybody who depends on the value of dollars for their survival over the next three decades (e.g. pensioners on fixed incomes).
Is it better to be a pensioner on a fixed income or an employee on a declining income with no pension !?!?
Third Base.
Does anyone wonder if China has to buy its “most favored nation” status via continual bond purchases? I.e., we are already effectively charging tarriffs for Chinese-made goods?
China knows that it has been had. The monetizing of debt by the US has made it clear to them that they have used up much of their natural resources, water, coal, oil etc. producing goods with low margins and received fiat currency that they have to invest in low interest bonds just to keep the value up on their U.S. currency hoard. However, they are now moving to replace their expended natural resources and are willing to do it by any means included by military force. They also know how to bring us down economically thereby forcing us to cut our military strength. Their buying of gold is part of their plan to replace the Yuan as the reserve currency of the world. Vicious trench warfare is going on with most of us unaware of the stakes.
Sorry type over problem that is replace the dollar with the yuan.
But if the dollar is replacesd as the reserve currency, who will buy their exports we won’t be able to afford anymore? The EU? And keep in mind that many of China’s 3rd world customers are also very dependent on a trade deficit addicted USA, and they buy stuff from China with USD.
I think we are in a very codependent situation, which is reflected by the Asian nations snapping up Treasuries.
do you think people would prefer yuans that are backed by gold?
Why would people need to reserve yuans? Would protecting the value of their money be enough?
It appears the real reason countries have needed dollars is to buy oil.
They need dollars or something with enough liquidity to get dollars to buy oil.
How do you get dollars?
Sell us something.
swap your currency for dollars.
You bring up an interesting question.
Can you buy US treasuries with a foreign currency or does it have to be US dollars?
It appears the real reason countries have needed dollars is to buy oil.
That had been the reason. When Iraq started to accept other currencies, it was promptly invaded. Don’t think that was the only reason but it was in the equation. However, more and more countries are cutting deals leaving the dollar out and dealing directly in the country’s currency, the reserve status of our currency is endangered.
http://www.examiner.com/article/dollar-no-longer-primary-oil-currency-as-china-begins-to-sell-oil-using-yuan
From the article:
“”On Thursday, Sept. 6… just a few days ago, China made the official announcement. China said on that day, our banking system is ready, all of our communication systems are ready, all of the transfer systems are ready, and as of that day, Thursday, Sept. 6, any nation in the world that wishes from this point on, to buy, sell, or trade crude oil, can do using the Chinese currency, not the American dollar. - Interview with Natty Bumpo on the Just Measures Radio network, Sept. 11”
This announcement by China is one of the most significant sea changes in the global economic and monetary systems, but was barely reported on due to its announcement taking place during the Democratic convention last week. The ramifications of this new action are vast, and could very well be the catalyst that brings down the dollar as the global reserve currency, and change the entire landscape of how the world purchases energy.
but as members of OPEC didnt some countries agree to only accept dollars? If your not a member of OPEC cant you sell your oil for whatever currencies you want? China and russia are not members of OPEC.
I guess Iraq is a member of OPEC.
Read link above.
yeah I did read it, THX. China and russia have never been members of OPEC. As far as I know OPEC members only made the agreement to accept dollars.
Sounds like its hard to get out of OPEC these days.
“To explain this situation properly, we have to start in 1973. That’s when President Nixon asked King Faisal of Saudi Arabia to accept only US dollars as payment for oil and to invest any excess profits in US Treasury bonds, notes, and bills. In exchange, Nixon pledged to protect Saudi Arabian oil fields from the Soviet Union and other interested nations, such as Iran and Iraq. It was the start of something great for the US, even if the outcome was as artificial as the US real-estate bubble and yet constitutes the foundation for the valuation of the US dollar.
By 1975 all of the members of OPEC agreed to sell their oil only in US dollars. Every oil-importing nation in the world started saving their surplus in US dollars so as to be able to buy oil; with such high demand for dollars the currency strengthened. On top of that, many oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia spent their US dollar surpluses on Treasury securities, providing a new, deep pool of lenders to support US government spending.”
But countries like Iran ignore that prohibition. Perhaps we are trying to get Iran back on our side but then we will lose Saudi Arabia.
it appears iran wants out in a big way but somebody doesnt want them to leave.
“Beside the prospect of its own gas field, Syria is also one of the most strategic locations for natural gas pipelines to flow to Europe.
Qatar, home to the world’s largest gas field along with Iran, has proposed a gas pipeline from the Gulf to Turkey that would traverse Syria to the Mediterranean, with the gas then being shipped to Europe.
However, Assad in 2009 refused to go along with the plan, instead inking deals with Russia and Iran.
Syria is site of the proposed construction of a massive underground gas pipeline that, if completed, could drastically undercut the strategic energy power of U.S. ally Qatar and also would cut Turkey out of the pipeline flow.”
Something worth noting: Check out the assets of various companies, including those based in the U.S. Their assets are real. Factory equipment, factories, farmland, trucks, software patents, office buildings, aircraft, and so on. That stuff is real.. The US Dollar is not real. precious metals are real.
Shareholders’ equity - key word “equity” - what happens when one public company buys another public company? They pay the shareholders in the form of stock in the new company. They don’t leave the shareholders of the company they bought at low tide.
So shareholders’ equity is almost an asset itself. Yes certainly stock prices can crash and that is different than the factory building and factory equipment - those still exist and do not lose half their mass when stocks lose half their value.
In the long run a diversified portfolio of stock mutual funds is the ultimate way to accumulate wealth, particularly if you dollar cost average into it over the years. Your cost basis will be very low, and very difficult to change if 25 years down the road the stock market crashes 75%.
This all does not discount precious metals in physical form as an insurance policy. Precious metal is second to stocks in performance in the long run and are a necessary part of a balanced portfolio to weather the storms.
China may hold a lot of treasuries and I think what some posted is right - it will keep its most favored trading partner status as long as it is one of the top two big creditors.
But don’t make a mistake that the USA and its companies has worthless assets.
I only wish that in the last 30 years the boomers would have been smart and focused on buying up foreign company stocks instead of being gullible about real estate.
One man’s gullibility is another’s opportunity.
How long can we rig the currency and metals market to make T-bonds attractive:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html
trade the Treasuries for 10 million unappreciated homes…kick out the deadbeats who haven’t paid the mortgage in 5+ years and nice homes for the Chinese to live in….and they have money….
seems like a done deal…..might have some backlash to evicting tens or hundreds of thousands of deadbeats but it wont last long.
and nice homes for the Chinese to live in
The problem is that those wealthy Chinese want to live in places like Palo Alto or Mission Viejo and not in armpits like the Inland Empire, where most of the foreclosures are.
But if the dollar is replacesd as the reserve currency, who will buy their exports we won’t be able to afford anymore? The EU? And keep in mind that many of China’s 3rd world customers are also very dependent on a trade deficit addicted USA, and they buy stuff from China with USD.
They are creating their own internal market and with countries in Africa from which they buy raw materials. I think that NYCDJ is on to something. We have rich and probably politically well connected Chinese taking their dollars and buying something tangible. Think if you had dollars and you knew that your government was going to take an action which would cause the value of those dollars to plunge in value. What would you do, buy gold and perhaps buy up tangible property in the US prior to the Chinese pulling the rug from under the dollar. The Chinese government might even encourage it since it would be in their interest to get us much value for their dollars prior to the collapse of their value. What are the Chinese actually doing, buying gold with the dollars and buying property in the U.S.
The Chinese are getting ready to party like it is 4711 on January 30th because they know that 4712 is their year.
Think if you had dollars and you knew that your government was going to take an action which would cause the value of those dollars to plunge in value.
Yet they continue to buy treasuries.
Shouldn’t it be spelled with “ies” at the end? Like “flies” and “cherries”?
I’m just copying the curious spelling from many articles I have read. I suppose the answer is that a “Treasury” is a type of bond, not to be confused with “treasuries,” or government offices in charge of issuing and regulating national currencies.
BlackRock CEO Fink sees ‘Great Rotation’ in bonds
Published: Thursday, 16 Jan 2014 | 6:45 AM ET
By: Matthew J. Belvedere | Producer, CNBC’s “Squawk Box”
Larry Fink, Chairman & CEO of BlackRock, shares his thoughts on investment banking and what he is seeing as a shift away from core index bonds into “unconstrained’ fixed income.
The long-discussed “Great Rotation” won’t be from bonds to stocks, but will be within the bond market, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink told CNBC on Thursday, as the investment firm reported better-than-expected earnings.
Fink said in a “Squawk Box” interview that he’s seeing a rotation into high-yield, short duration bonds, as investors try to avoid interest rate risk.
“If you believe interest rates are going higher, [the core bond index] is going to be a painful index to be sitting in,” he said. “We are seeing a rotation from core index into low duration, into high yield.”
In a higher rate scenario, he added, if the stock market also continues to move higher, “you will see rebalancing into fixed income,” as investors take their profits and seek the safety of bonds.
On Thursday, BlackRock said it earned $4.92 a share, excluding one-time items, in the fourth quarter. Analysts had expected the company to report profit of $4.33 a share. Revenue beat estimates, as well, coming in at $2.78 billion.
BlackRock also raised its quarterly dividend by 15 percent to $1.93 from $1.68 a share.
On the economic front, Fink said, “The U.S. is going to get stronger primarily because we more rapidly fixed our banking system.”
“We’re getting better because our companies are sitting on a lot of cash. And I believe the outlook in the United States is stronger, so you’re going to see more investing in capital expenditures in 2014 than you have in 2013 and 2012,” he added.
“Most importantly, our energy sector is so transformational,” he continued. “The cost of electricity, the cost of natural gas is so much cheaper here than Europe.”
…
Speaking of BlackRock.
The rise of BlackRock
The Economist
Dec 7th 2013 | From the print edition
ASK conspiracy theorists who they think really runs the world, and they will probably point to global banks, such as Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. Oil giants such as Exxon Mobil and Shell may also earn a mention. Or perhaps they would focus on the consumer-goods firms that hold billions in their thrall: Apple, McDonald’s or Nestlé.
One firm unlikely to feature on their list is BlackRock, an investment manager whose name rings few bells outside financial circles. Yet it is the single biggest shareholder in all the companies listed above. It owns a stake in almost every listed company not just in America but globally.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21591174-25-years-blackrock-has-become-worlds-biggest-investor-its-dominance-problem
“Did you dump your bond investments yet?”
About 6 months ago.
Merriam-Webster thinks it has an -ies:
(three letters) (dot) merriam-webster (dotcom) /dictionary/treasury
Do your stock and housing market losses depress you?
Study: Stock Market Declines May Be Deadly
January 8, 2014 7:50 AM
Christopher Parsons, Joseph Engelberg, stock market, U.C. San Diego
SACRAMENTO (CBS Sacramento) – A study has found that declines in the stock market may put your health at risk.
Two U.C. San Diego finance professors conducted the study with 30 years worth of California hospital admission records and correlated them with the ups and downs of the stock market.
Professors Joseph Engelberg and Christopher Parsons found from 1983 to 2011 that hospital admissions increased following stock market drops, KMBZ reported. People admitted complained especially of anxiety, depression or other conditions of mental or emotional stress.
They presented “Worrying About the Stock Market: Evidence from Hospital Admissions” at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. The professors have submitted it for peer review to the Journal of Finance, in hopes to have it published in upcoming months.
On Oct. 19, 1987, the market plunged nearly 25 percent on “Black Friday.” That day California’s hospital admissions spiked more than 5 percent.
“Stock market declines today result in psychological distress today,” Engelberg and Parsons wrote.
The professors’ research found that three decades’ of data demonstrated that “one standard deviation drop in U.S. stock prices (roughly -1.5 percent) increases admissions to California hospitals by about 0.26 percent over the next two days,” KMBZ reported.
According to the state’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development, more than 11,000 Californians are hospitalized each day on average.
In an unrelated study of North Carolina hospital patients by Duke University, the stock market crash of 2008 was found to be associated with a spike in the rate of heart attacks. That study was published in 2010 by the American Journal of Cardiology.
…
“Do your stock and housing market losses depress you?”
Stock losses? Yeah last year was just awful. Stocks were only up 30%. Horrible times.
READ THE COMMENT BEFORE REPLYING.
Slithers is a brain dead troll. Asking him to read anything before his knee-jerk responses is an exercise in futility.
Housing will continue to go up up up in California for the next 3 years. There will be low inventory of homes in the next 3 years. California population growth and very little home building during the Housing bubble years 2006-2010. Buy now and get in the gravy train of rising housing prices of 20-25% every year.
Southland December Home Sales at Six-Year Low; Median Price Jumps
January 14, 2014
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the six-county region last month rose to $395,000 – the peak for 2013 and the highest for any month since the median was $408,000 in February 2008. Last month’s median was up 2.6 percent from $385,000 in November and up 22.3 percent from $323,000 in December 2012. Until last month the median had more or less moved sideways – ranging from $382,000 to $385,000 – since last June.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140114.aspx
Bay Area Home Sales Drop to Six-Year Low; Prices Still Up Sharply Yr/Yr
January 15, 2014
The median price paid for a home in the Bay Area last month was $548,500. That was 0.3 percent lower than $550,000 in November, and 23.9 percent above $442,750 for December 2012. While the median has been at roughly the current level since last summer, it has increased year-over-year for 21 consecutive months.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay140115.aspx
Don’t miss out in the 20-25% annual gains. Home prices can only go up up up and up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its tough to even build in those areas anymore. low inventory and high demand causes rising prices.
The Inland Empire is one of the hottest real estate markets in the country.
Not everybody can afford to live on the ocean. But with ample land for development and a near-perfect year round climate, the Inland Empire is a place where you can own a piece of the American Dream in beautiful Southern California, and within easy commuting distances to job centers in Los Angeles and San Diego.
One of the benifits of living in the Inland Empire is you get to see the air that you breathe.
Not everyone gets the opportunity to visually check out the quality of the air that goes into their lungs. For most people the air they breathe is invisible to the naked eye and thus its quality is unknown.
Although I cannot completely disagree with your statement, I must say that you have obviously not been to Temecula. We are on the border of Riverside and San Diego County and have excellent weather and better than avg air quality. The wine industry is thriving and city coffers have a surplus. We receive ocean air every afternoon as a result of a break in the mountain range between I-15 and Pendleton. This cools the area down even on hot days. It’s not perfect, but it’s a lot of bang for your buck as compared to San Diego/Orange County.
Last time we drove through Temecula, I felt like we had somehow strayed into LA freeway traffic. It’s amazing how much congestion has developed out that way, probably thanks to refugees from the overpriced San Diego housing market locating farther inland.
That said, I like Temecula, especially the Old Town area.
Lots of Freeway exits being added that should alleviate the big slowdowns. The wineries and casino bring lots of dollars(and people) to the area on weekends. It’s become quite a little mecca for weekend getaways. Golf is also plentiful and way cheaper than LA or OC. Great hiking as well. I am biased as I liver here, but it really has much to offer.
I’ve been to Temecula several times. Not a bad town. Lots of good golf in the area that’s reasonably priced. Quality is as good as in San Diego for 1/2 the price.
I hate Temecula, and the wine is aweful.
Lots of Freeway exits being added that should alleviate the big slowdowns.
Hah hah…every new exit includes an on-ramp, right?
That area is being destroyed economically. There are no jobs worth having being created. As government goes broke in the next 10 years this place will be very hard hit because so much there is tied to govt.
Prices going up in San Berdoo county is nutso.
Why anyone would want to live in the Inland Quagmire is beyond me.
Lmao people in the IE don’t freeze to death or hibernate 6 months like Colorado folks do. I went to the beach today while folks in colorado are freezing to death with no life 6 months just stuck in their houses.
Im 30 minutes away from the beach. 45 minutes away from Hollyweird. 30 minutes away from Big Bear to go sking.The Forest to go hiking are 30 minutes away. The Desert is 45 minutes away. Donkey shows in Tejuana,Mex are 1 hour away.VEGAS 1/2 flight or less .Indian casinos are 30 minutes away. And so many beautifull women in So Cal. You can’t beat that .
That’s awesome. Post of the year. It’s the donkey shows that really puts it over the top :-).
…..are they debt donkeys trying to pay their bills? (Hahahahaha)
“That area is being destroyed economically. There are no jobs worth having being created. ”
Really?
Temecula’s unemployment rate is 7.4%. Compare that to 11.3% in Los Angeles.
Median income is $75K.
You’re right, it’s Detroit with better weather.
Temecula is a tiny part of the IE. Population of about 100,000 where Riv and SB county together is over 4 million. It is the Beverly Hills of the IE!
I think Temecula is okay, with the caveat that it is in SoCal, and SoCal is done.
Salton Sea for fishing, often time you can just scoop the fish off the top of the water as they float dead.
It drives me crazy the way the NARSCUM talk about the “Southland”. It includes places so different as to ruin any rational point that could be drawn. San Berdoo ain’t OC or LA, different markets with different issues. One can be stable for a bit while another is collapsing or vice versa. You might as well be comparing KFC, Taco Bell, and McDonalds.
Where’d you get your crystal ball? Does it really work?
“When is housing massively overpriced? It’s quite simple. When the price of the house is in excess of the cost to build (lot, materials, labor and profit), less depreciation for a used house.”
Exactly. No need to confuse it. The cost to build is right around $55/sq ft, with profit.
Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
why is there a stigma renting from a landlord vs renting from a bank?
I guess technically you are the owner when making payments to the bank as a deed of trust is filed but miss some payments and they technically can take the house back.As we saw people got free rent for years because no one would foreclose.
It seems like the problem has went away but just how many people are still getting free rent? They can be very difficult to tell because if the trustee does not file a notice of default you really have no public knowledge of it.
There are making very hard to foreclose on people in CA. They changed some laws and it could take a long time to get somebody out.
DEED OF TRUST has 3 parties:
Trustee = 3rd party who initiates foreclosure if payments not made
Trustor = Borrower
Beneficiary= one who gets the payments
What we saw here was that the beneficiaries were not directing the trustees to start the foreclosure process once payments were missed.
It seems they had an incentive to let these people stay without paying. One incentive was to restrict inventory but they must have been getting money not to foreclose. Can you imagine the carrying costs of these homes?
The stigma comes from the barrier to entry. Sure, once you GET the mortgage, you’re renting-to-own from the bank. But the prestige is in getting the mortgage. Buying a home is a statement to the world that you were successful enough to accumulate tens of thousands of dollars in savings for a down payment.
Debt is prestige?
You’re off the rails now.
Here’s a helpful article to walk first time home buyers through the home buying process.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/with-home-buying-planning-ahead-will-make-the-multiple-step-process-easier/2014/01/16/482a8038-66a2-11e3-a0b9-249bbb34602c_story.html
people dont have to save tens of thousands of dollars for a down payment anymore.
FHA =3% Down
USDA rural loan= 0 down
AZdude this is true. And when those historical barriers to entry disappear, the historical prestige will disappear too. But, it’s lingering, thanks to the NAR.
My guess is that for the next generation, the real prestige will come from the mortgage burning party.
The downpayment is thousands, not tens of thousands. If you have tens of thousands, you can just buy houses during the busts that are bound to follow the seemingly perpetual price booms nowadayz.
why is there a stigma renting from a landlord vs renting from a bank?
Good question. When I was a renter in SoCal, I was pooh-poohed on by my peers for not owning at the time.
That said, being a renter in SoCal in the 80’s did kind of blow. Most of the inmates in the rental complex were low lifes. But back then interest rates were in the double digits, and it really did cost a LOT more to buy than rent. When the rates finally came down into the single digits it became more reasonable.
Anywho, I think that owning became a symbol of having “made it”. Of course later anyone who could fog a mirror could get a no down, sub-prime loan with a teaser rate, and we all know how that turned out.
Do you think stinky Amy is one of the other posters here? Place your bets, place your bets…
I may be wrong but I think it is oxide trying to get back at HA.
I think those claiming it is HA are simply debt donkeys mad at him for calling them out as such.
And lashing out at me is somehow going to get her out of the sinkhole she’s in…. too funny.
“The higher we soar, the smaller we appear to those who cannot fly” — Friedrich Nietzsche
I must look pretty tiny to you from all the way down there in mom’s basement.
You’re flailing DebtDonkey.
No, it’s not me. Only once have I ever changed my handle for a few days, when faster pussycat called me a realtor whore. I switched back quick.
There are two types of people in the world: those who stab you in the back and those who stab you in the front. I’m a full frontal.
I may be wrong but I think it is oxide trying to get back at HA ??
And there-in the problem…Multiple handles…
You have to admit it is pretty humorous!
It is an interesting thought whether changing that would change anything for the better. I tend to favor the Wild West. Look at Reddit.
I don’t think it’s HA. I have a theory that it’s goon, same as Mr. Banker.
I have no debt and offered to pay cash for ha’s so-called product in quality areas. He cannot deliver.
You’ve got nothing.
*Realtors Are Liars
Did you dump your bond fund yet?
Arlington VA Housing Prices Sink 10% YoY; Inventory Up 28%
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
Or not.
http://www.rbintel.com/statistics/arlington-county-va
Statistic Values YoY MoM
Total Sold Dollar Volume $134,383,551 +38.55% +36.8%
Closed Sales 215 +22.86% +23.56%
Median Sold Price $545,000 +14.74% +9.33%
Avg Sold Price $625,040 +12.77% +10.72%
Avg Days on Market 42 days -17.65% +13.51%
Avg Sold to Orig List Ratio 97.22% +0.69% -0.1%
No no. ARLINGTON, VA. Not arlington county.
I think you just got some bad info from that site. Arlington, VA, is Arlington County:
http://www.arlingtonva.us/
http://wikitravel.org/en/Arlington_(Virginia)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arlington_County,_Virginia
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Arlington-Virginia/114829998534302
Not to mention that all of Arlington County only has 328 properties for sale as of December 2013, and your site said that “Arlington, VA” has 344. Kind of hard for a smaller part of Arlington, which has about 20 zip codes to have more inventory than the entire county.
Not sure what movoto is, but it seems sketchy. You can probably find more reliable data.
No it’s quite accurate as they get their information directly from Realtor and deed recorder office.
The information is for ARLINGTON, VA, not Arlington county.
I rented places in Arlington, VA 7 out of the last 11 years, in 4 different zip codes, and it’s a county. It is your choice to stay ignorant, but that runs counter to the point of this blog.
When you click on the links to bring up the houses for sale on your Movoto page you get this page:
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/
This is right at the top:
Movoto Real Estate » DC/Maryland/Virginia » Arlington County
Oddly it says Arlington County…
No. The link you were provided is for the town of Arlington which happens to be in Arlington county. And prices are down 10% Year over year…. and falling.
Click the links on the page YOU provided and you get the listed properties…in Arlington County and the title says…Arlington County, because there is no town of Arlington. If you can’t even identify the markets where you are posting stats, why bother posting at all.
Don’t run into anything while you are backpedaling and ducking and weaving the truth. Just own your mistake and move on.
Yes. My link shows prices are down 13% Year Over Year in Arlington, VA. And housing supply up 28%.
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
And here’s a screenshot to help you better understand what’s going on in with housing.
http://picpaste.com/a1f06f8b063fafdcd080dc4cde20a58e.png
You and I are talking 2 different numbers, I’m pointing out that year over year, average and median sales price is up 10%. Also, days on market is only 42 days and that’s in December not the middle of Spring/Summer, and the number of distressed sales out of that 300+ for sale is a grand total of one. Sellers are receiving 97.22% of asking price. Not exactly ground zero for bubble 2 popping at this point.
So your headline seems odd, because your cherry picking and stretching for something negative. So you chose list price which is irrelevant until something sells. But the list price should be a leading indicator, right? So why the large downward movement in what seems like an easy market to sell both in terms of speed and getting nearly all your asking price?
Is it possible that an enormous correction has begun and Arlington County, VA is the epicenter. Sure, why not, but it is more likely 2 factors in this specific market.
First it’s a small sample size market, which makes for exciting ups and downs in graphs but doesn’t have much bearing on the residents.
Second, Arlington has built primarily condos for a decade for mostly young professionals who want to be near public transportation. The subway bisects the county and each Metro station has a lot of condo and apartment building all around it. Not surprisingly when I look at the actual listings that you provided, I see more condos in the mix, because that’s who sells this time of year. It also gets skewed whenever a large new building comes on line.
I don’t personally care whether Arlington goes up 50% or down 50% in 2014, it won’t have any bearing on me. I also wouldn’t pay those kinds of prices to live in an Arlington condo, or any condo for that matter. The price per square foot is astronomical, and I don’t like condo/apt living.
In closing, there is plenty of legitimate negative price movements and foreclosure increases (See Maryland, United States of America) without having to stretch and invent new ones based on random movements in small size markets.
It devalues this site and destroys credibility when the posts are skewed to support a predetermined viewpoint. It is also intellectually lazy to grab random online data from markets that you don’t really know well and it doesn’t add value for anyone that visits this site looking for insight and guidance.
This site offers a rare and enjoyable contrarian viewpoint and gives people an alternative opinion versus MSM BS articles. Let’s keep the credibility alive.
You seem unable or unwilling to read the data. Clearly it states Arlington VA housing prices are down 10%…. and falling.
Take another look.
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
And housing demand has collapsed 40.4% in Arlington, VA.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Arlington-home-value/r_30258/#metric=mt%3D24%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D30258%26el%3D0
Clearly there is a confidence problem involved here. With all the housing and realtor corruption, the public isn’t going to participate.
You seem unable or incapable of understanding your own data.
According to your own Zillow link, prices are up 8.2%, nice job pointing that out. I guess you should pick one site and stick with it, so you don’t refute yourself.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Arlington-home-value/r_30258/#metric=mt%3D34%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D30258%26el%3D0
And according to your movoto link, price per square foot on those listed is up 3.2% as well. And that’s because, as I pointed out before, the size of the units has dropped 18%, while the LIST price on those has only dropped 10%, resulting in actual price increases. And that’s due to more condos and fewer SFH sales.
Keep sending more links that contradict your own story, it just supports my point that you are intellectually lazy. Go ahead and try to spin this some more. Keep changing your story and trying new links while you hide from your last ones. This is the internet so everyone expects it. There is no real accountability, kind of like real estate in general.
If you want to destroy this site from the inside out, that’s your prerogative.
Here’s your problem.
Movoto counts all sales. Defaults, delinquencies, etc thus their price data is more accurate.
As far as collapsing demand in Arlington(per zillow link), you seem unable or incapable of understanding your demand. It is also intellectually lazy to avoid and deflect from the collapsing demand and falling price data. And it doesn’t add value for anyone that visits this site looking for insight and guidance.
Now lets revisit the data shall we?
Here we have collapsing sales, down 21.4% in Arlington VA
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/VA-Arlington-home-value/r_30258/#metric=mt%3D24%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D30258%26el%3D0
Now we have the totality of sales (resale, default, delinquency and foreclosure) that demonstrate falling asking prices on the order of 10% in Arlington VA per the movoto data.
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
Now here’s another interest datapoint for the DC Metro Area
Alexandria VA Housing Prices Dive 13% Year Over Year
http://www.movoto.com/alexandria-va/market-trends/
Alexandria is typical most metro areas around the country. Sliding prices due to massive excess inventory, overbuilding and rising delinquencies and defaults.
It’s time to get honest about the stunning losses and housing fraud and corruption.
That link you just sent for Alexandria has the same logical flaw as your Arlington data, it shows the price/sqft is up 7% in Alexandria year over year.
Average size of a house for sale 1 year ago 1724 sqft, now 1,404. So yeah the asking prices are 14% lower, but that makes sense since the houses are 20% smaller.
So to summarize what we covered here today:
1. Arlington is a county not a town, now you’ve learned something
2. The price per sqft in Arlington is up 3% year over year per your movoto link
3. The price per sqft in Alexandria is up 7% year over year per your movoto link
I already knew point #1, but I didn’t realize that Alexandria was outperforming Arlington which has traditionally not been the case. So I learned something too!
Will they continue to increase in 2014? That is a more relevant discussion since most of us on this site are interested in future predictions more than the past. I don’t see how the increases can go much further based on income, but the market here keeps defying reality.
What the data shows is DC Metro area housing prices Year Over Year. Let’s examine this more closely;
1) Arlington, VA in Arlington County housing prices are down 10% and falling
2) Arlington, VA in Arlington County housing demand is down 40% and falling
3) Alexandria VA in Arlington County housing prices are down 13% and falling
4) Alexandria VA in Arlington county housing inventory is up 28% and rising
What we do know is DC metro is much like the metro areas in the rest of the country. Prices are grossly inflated and falling and sales are collapsing. From a simple economic perspective, that makes sense.
Be careful as the losses are crushing if you buy a house now.
Well, for points #1 and #3, the data you supplied shows the opposite, price/sqft up in both jurisdictions, but that’s your data from Movoto, so I’m gonna let you keep arguing for and against your own data, you don’t need two people to do that.
As for #3 and #4, demonstrating your ignorance again, Alexandria City is a neighboring jurisdiction to Arlington, not inside or part of Arlington County. Here is a link so you can get some free education:
http://alexandriava.gov/
At least you finally got 1 point correct, but you don’t go far enough. It is not just enough to be careful right now in Arlington/Alexandria, but probably you just shouldn’t buy real estate there unless you can stomach ups and downs with $500k+ properties. It would be unfortunate for someone to try and sell one of these during a correction, if they had to move for a job or some other life event.
Let me help you out again. I’ll go slow for you.
Arlington, VA housing prices down 12%
Arlington, VA housing inventory up 28%
http://picpaste.com/a1f06f8b063fafdcd080dc4cde20a58e.png
Let us know how you make out with it.
I see you stopped sending your Movoto links for both places that you can’t locate on a map, since both show prices are up year over year. That’s progress I guess.
Stay on topic now.
Arlington, VA housing prices down 12%
Arlington, VA housing inventory up 28%
http://picpaste.com/a1f06f8b063fafdcd080dc4cde20a58e.png
It is hard to stay on point, when you keep changing your story so fast.
You claimed there was a town of Arlington, I pointed out it doesn’t exist, you finally backed off a couple replies back and admitted that it is, in fact, a county. No kidding, really?
You try to deflect that lie by claiming numbers are down, and I point out on your own chart that $/sqft are up. Your chart, that you got from your favorite realtors at Movoto. Read them before you post them right? Saves you from getting called out as a liar back to back posts.
So then you try to dodge and say, Arlington County is down, because Alexandria is down and you misidentify Alexandria as part of Arlington. I know they both start with the letter A, but they are actually different places. Kind of like Dallas and Denver. So I point out that Alexandria is a separate city, meanwhile wondering what does the one have to do with the other? Sounds like you are avoiding admitting that you posted the wrong data or just didn’t notice until I pointed it out. I also point out that on your Movoto Alexandria the data shows the same thing, $/sqft are up. Whoops, still lying or just too stupid to realize its on your own chart, not sure which is worse.
Then you give up on your realtor friend’s data at Movoto, go off on another trip and claim that all of DC is down and so is every city in America without any data at all. Enjoy your fantasy vacation, try and stay hydrated and wear sunscreen.
Look at my handle, and you can probably imagine how little I care whether any particular place in America or the world is up, down, or sideways. I don’t care if people make money or get foreclosed on left and right. But why make up towns and fake data, what’s the point? Just own your mistakes and your lies. You are on par with the realtors, and the worst part is you trumpet their data like parrot and then even get that wrong.
I think I’ve taken you behind the woodshed enough for one thread. Anyone who happens across this thread by this point will realize that if you invent geographic locations and lack the literacy to read your own realtor supplied charts, that your reliability is 0. You can’t point out my factual inaccuracies, because only one of us is a liar.
http://www.usingenglish.com/reference/idioms/take+someone+to+the+woodshed.html
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trip_to_the_woodshed
Stay on topic now.
Arlington, VA housing prices down 12%
Arlington, VA housing inventory up 28%
http://picpaste.com/a1f06f8b063fafdcd080dc4cde20a58e.png
Now go ahead.
Biggvs Richardvs,
Thank you for the link to Tom’s show. Looks like I’m going to have to become a subscriber to see what he had to say about my comment the other day (I’m almost afraid to find out).
Ben, sorry, I was not, in anyway, trying to bring attention to the blog with my post; wanted to air my thoughts and get comments. And thank you again for all the responses.
I can’t believe my comment got on a radio show. Did someone send it to Tom/the show or is he a reader here? I’ve thought that some of the other comments I made we’re much more “significant” than my pain about my wife having/not having kids.
Oh, Tom, if you’re a reader here, glad that my post was interesting to you, I hesitated to even post it; but there’s a great bunch of people here and, as anticipated, the discussion was helpful and interesting to see all the perspectives. Thanks Ben and posters!
Seen the movie “Her” yet? As always, Joaquin puts on a masterful performance. But I thought it really explored some of these complex male-female issues (and it does bog down a bit at times). Not that anyone should look for wisdom in a movie, but it is an art form and art can inspire.
Marriage is a partnership. The partners have to be in agreement as to goals and how to achieve them. If not, it doesn’t work out. It’s that simple.
Sometimes one or another of the partners will mis-represent themselves to the other, and that’s where the trouble starts. The mis-representation is not necessarily malicious. Frequently it comes from a good place, but as they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
No, I have not seen “Her” yet. I hadn’t even heard of it, but just put it in my Netflix queue, I love Joaquin, he’s a real master of the art.
“he’s a real master of the art”
Whew, I’m tellin’ ya. A true thespian. My other fave is Russell Crowe. Which is why Gladiator was so awesome, having them both in the same flick. What a matchup!
“My other fave is Russell Crowe”
A Beautiful Mind, honestly, at the end, made me feel like I couldn’t breathe. It honestly knocked the wind out of me as they started placing the pens on the table (which, BTW, is apparently a Hollywood fabrication, but man to such good effect).
Crowe is a fantastic actor. He, Edward Norton, Joaquin, some of my “go to’s” for figuring out if a movie is going to be good or not just from seeing the trailer.
Another tip. Anything with Katherine Heigl is almost guaranteed to be beyond awful. Like, so bad it makes my brain ooze out of my ear and, surprisingly, I’m happy about it because it means that the pain might stop.
Master and Commander! What a flick! Interesting that the doctor/naturalist in the movie was the same actor that was Crowe’s imaginary best friend in a Beautiful Mind. As actors, they have an incredible interaction.
“The lesser of two weevils”. One of the greatest lines in moviedom. I also liked “before peace breaks out with France, God forbid”.
What is that other line when he makes a toast something like this: “here is to wives and girlfriends and may they never meet.”
lol, dan, another good one! That movie was truly a work of art. Reminded why the poem about “I must go down to the sea again” was written.
It also illustrated some of the better qualities of men. Many men need to adventure, to explore, to discover and must be let do so without denigration.
What is the main message of the movie “Her?”
I could tell at the beginning of this thread that it was intended as a brofest.
Men beating their chests in the dark, like so many invisible gorrilas.
spook, the critics who are swooning over it feel that the message is that male-female relationships are complicated and that a disembodied female gender AI can be just as high-maintenance as a flesh and blood woman.
Caution: it’s a real SWPL “sensitive” movie, and given that the director Spike Jonze did a couple of Jackass flicks, there is some sentiment that it may be a send-up, a SWPL put-on, too.
The great thing is, you can view it either way and it still works.
What is the main message of the movie “Her?”
I just read the plot at themoviespoiler since I’ll probably never see it.
Just came out in December how can you put it in your Netflix queue?
Netflix let’s you queue things that aren’t released yet (I think they call it “Save for Later”) so that they get to you when they are finally available.
Anyway, Overtaxed, I didn’t chime in on your very interesting thread because of work, but I come from a different perspective on the issue, since my mother was the main breadwinner in the parental unit and when she and my father divorced, she was the one who had to pay out, due to his age.
And even to the end, she stayed involved with him and did her best to help resolve issues for him that arose later on in his life, when she didn’t have to.
On another note, a male relative of mine got married to a woman he had had a relationship with for years. Originally, children were just not in the cards, and he panicked when there was an unplanned pregnancy. He didn’t want her to go through with it, but she did and said she was going to, with or without him and that was that.
Today there are two children, and they’re the delight of his life, even though it has meant sacrifice. Then again, his perspective changed, turns out, it wasn’t that much of a sacrifice because the children have made his life worthwhile, and I know the son has turned out to be someone who has made life worthwhile for others less fortunate due to his volunteer work.
Sometimes these things have a happy ending. The scary part is the unknowns.
This is from yesterday:
Comment by Anklepants
2014-01-16 20:44:46
Does that calculator take a decrease in price into effect where you bought much higher? If not it is junk. Ask those millions of people still way underwater from the post up above.
You think you’ve been made whole by the recent runup. You’ve not been made whole, you have been made into a hole.
Anklepants (not sure who you are), the New York Times calculator is not junk. It has a couple of mouse sliders which allow you to enter in a negative house price appreciation, or a drop in rental rates, if you so wish. In fact, when I bought my house and had to defend myself for it here on HBB, I ran a scenario using a house price drop, and still came out ahead vs. renting in the long term. Instead of attacking me, why don’t you go to the calculator and run a few underwater scenarios yourself? Be sure to click on the Advanced Settings and then on the “Buy” “Rent” “Other” blocks to enter in all sorts of variables. Here is the link AGAIN:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=1&
Ask all the people who are underwater? Sure, the ones who bought 2004 - 2007. Duh, that’s why we have an HBB in the first place. I did NOT buy in 2006. I bought in early 2012, which was AFTER prices dropped 35% off peak. Isn’t that what we’re supposed to do? Wait for a craaater and then buy? We can’t expect much more of a craaater than that, because DC area is Where The Jobs Are, and it was never overbuilt like Phoenix/Vegas/Stockton.
I was never “in a hole” and I never needed to be “made whole.” My house value has not dropped since I bought it. As I have said here several times, I am not in debt “bondage” for 20 years or whatever. I could sell the house for the price I paid for it, give up the down payment to transaction costs, start renting, and still be in the same financial position as if I had rented the entire time.
Prove it. Don’t just say it.
Buying was obviously the right decision for you.
Renting can sometimes be the right decision, but it’s pretty rare. Rare like unicorns and three-legged buffalo nickels. When you buy a home you are part of a community. I don’t think renters should even be allowed to vote, because they demonstrate no commitment to the community, they should not have a voice in its government.
“Renting can sometimes be the right decision, but it’s pretty rare.”
Renting works for single people out of college who only need a place to sleep. In that case a 1 bedroom apartment is fine and there’s no need to buy a home. If you’re moving to a new city, renting is a good idea while you get to know the city before buying. Also if you know you won’t be staying in said new town for long, renting is the better course.
But long term, it’s about the worst financial decision one can make.
Considering rental rates are a small fraction of the total carrying costs of buying, why buy?
renting long term
“But long term, it’s about the worst financial decision one can make.”
Absolutely, Mr. Smithers. As you travel down the path of aging, a paid off roof over your head is a must. We accrual $600/mo for ins and property taxes plus utilities. 4+2+ pool. Can’t rent a room in So Ca for that. We sold our McMansion and bought this cottage cash. Debt is a senior’s nemesis.
Your “accrual” is a loss in the hundreds of thousands of dollars as a result of paying a 225% premium for a depreciating asset.
HA
Buzz…wrong. You’re boring and wrong.
It’s amazing, under that veneer your bs finance, their is another superficial veneer of more bs.
How’s the climate in mom’s basement?
Take D-3 so you don’t get cancer.
I’ll accept your insults. You keep your losses.
There is one other case when renting is better than buying. Can anyone guess what that is? (Hint: It’s included in the name of this blog.)
Some posters (e.g. EddieTard) haven’t yet figured out the housing market is in a bubble.
“But long term, it’s about the worst financial decision one can make.”
The only worse decision that I can imagine is buying a house at the all-time peak bubble price, only to live out the remainder of your life paying off a mortgage that will forevermore exceed the amount for which you can sell your house.
Oh. Didn’t you say you bought at 2004 prices? And if you bought in 2004 you are underwater? Interesting.
There was such a sharp rise from 2002 to 2004 that it’s hard to get a good handle on the exact dates of the bubble, so I’ve been wavering between 2003-2004.
I bought at late 2003 prices. If had put 0% down, yes I may be a little underwater. If I had put 0% down and suddenly had to sell right away, then I would have had to bring the closing costs to the table. But this has always been the risk for a homebuyer. The conventional wisdom was you had to live in the house at least three years for it to be worthwhile. I can do that after about two years. To me it feels normal — and yeah, I know what kind of response this will bring from HA.
All this ducking and weaving of yours to avoid disclosing how badly you got ripped off.
Keep ducking Hoaxide.
with 20% down, your sales commission is paid for the moment you purchase in a normal housing market. So now you’re telling us that not only did you buy in a bubble, you put nothing down and are on the hook for even more interest and PMI as well… it doesn’t sound like the best scenario, even if you think it was the right scenario for you…
No, I said
IF
I had put nothing down.
IF.
I did not put nothing down. I put 10% down, which immediately pays for any selling transactions. Yes, I am on the hook for PMI. My monthly nut is still below equivalent rent. Yes I am on the hook for a little more interest. That “more” in interest is less than my next increase in rent would have been.
Did I buy into a bubble? I bought at a price that may or may not be equivalent to the beginning of the bubble. Since then, the price decreases from the popping bubble were arrested by the inflation curve going up.
And so what if I were underwater? (which I am not). Underwater doesn’t matter if — notice that IF again — I don’t have to sell, and I don’t have to sell.
oxide
Evidently, you bought a “home”, and your plans to pay if off for retirement reflect a sound financial decision. iirc, you plan to pay it off in 22 years. Thatagal!
You both got ripped off on a depreciating asset. It really is that simple. Good for you.
oxide:
> If had put 0% down, yes I may be a little underwater.
Sorry, the grammar there had me thinking you were saying you HAD put 0% down… looked like “I had” rather than “If I had”..
Still, best of luck with your purchase… hopefully the coming correction won’t force you into one of the all too commonly seen scenarios that tend to inflame many other posters here..
A downpayment made on an overpriced home can readily turn into a 100%+ loss if the value of said home reverts to what fundamentals dictate.
I bought in ‘89 and paid off in ‘98. According to some here, I am still underwater or up to my eyeballs in debt!?? Only you know your finances, therefore; you don’t need to explain ish to anybody. The rent vs own argument is circular on here so it is not worth the time or effort to type up lengthy posts since they will just be met with ____ (fill in the blank term for a acquiring debt).
Then why do you continue to attempt to rationalize your losses to us?
Take your own advice.
Unfortunately, the computer I am on right now does not have Joshua tree installed, so I have to read (scroll past) your crap today. The only loser is you, broken parrot.
the computer I am on right now does not have Joshua tree installed, so I have to read (scroll past) your crap today ??
As do I….Paging Colorado…How does one install this Joshua Tree thingy ??
dammit it how many times does it need to be posted?
You are still counting the recent run up Hoaxide. Keep praying prices don’t drop and encouraging realtor scum to ruin more lives.
California Housing Demand Falls To 4-Year Low
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-home-value/r_9/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D14%26r%3D9%26el%3D0
Palo Alto CA Housing Prices Sink 10% Year over Year
http://www.movoto.com/palo-alto-ca/market-trends/
Simi Valley CA Housing Prices Fall 5% Year over Year; Inventory Skyrockets 122%
http://www.movoto.com/simi-valley-ca/market-trends/
“Household Formation Is Cratering”
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/08/21/2013/household-formation-cratering
And prices are following.
If you take on mortgage debt at current massively inflated housing prices, you’ll enslave yourself for the rest of your life.
“Debt is bondage.”~ Suze Orman, May 11, 2013
Don’t Be A Debt Donkey®
“If you have to borrow money for 15 or 30 years to pay for it, it’s not ‘affordable’ nor can you afford it.”
BINGO
I don’t know many renters who pre-pay their lease for the next 15 or 30 years. Is that because they “can’t afford it?”
Home buyers get to deduct the mortgage interest (and property taxes as Mr. Smithers noted) from their taxes. For every $1 of interest and property taxes paid, you deduct $2 from your federal income taxes.
Renters don’t get to deduct anything. Not that it really matters, because most renters barely pay any taxes. Most of them are on government programs.
Your losses on housing are you losses alone. Deal with them.
“Renters don’t get to deduct anything…”
Actually, renters get a huge deduction, while actually saving money.
Not having to pay interest to the bank, premiums to the insurance company, fees to the lawncare service, HOA dues to the homeowner’s association, or property taxes to the state government sure feels like massive savings!
Do you not have renter’s insurance?
“Not having to pay interest to the bank, premiums to the insurance company, fees to the lawncare service, HOA dues to the homeowner’s association, or property taxes to the state government sure feels like massive savings!”
You’re paying interest and lawn care and hoa dues and property taxes. You just pay it all to the landlord who then pays it out.
Only difference is you don’t get to deduct any of it.
Tell that to the millions of suckers who paid inflated prices for houses in the last 15 years who can’t cover their costs by renting their shacks.
“Only difference is you don’t get to deduct any of it.”
Who cares if you can deduct home ownership expenses? Paying them after deductions is still more expensive than letting your landlord pay them.
Please explain how the tax deduction is 200% of the expense? I was under the impression that $1 of interest/property tax was worth your marginal tax rate (~28% + 9.3% for me), IF you aren’t hit by the AMT.
Stinky Amy is just a ruse, not serious, just spouting nonsense to rile up people here. The question is, to what purpose? Rile them up to make great arguments refuting her realtor parroting talking points OR rile them up just to rile?
My bet is the latter.
She’s a permatroll.
You make it sound like renters don’t pay interest. You do. You just pay it to a middle man called the landlord. Same goes with property tax, hoa fees, lawn care, insurance, maintenance, etc.
Difference is 30 years later you own nothing and during those 30 years you don’t get to deduct any of these expenses from your taxes.
Nonsense.
Landlord expenses are never automatic passthrough costs.
I’ve already explained this last week, but this still keeps coming up. I think because these are not itemized, renters believe they are not paying for these things. Out of sight out of mind. Or maybe they think they are getting such a good deal because they think are living in a rental at cost?
How could a tenant be paying them when rental rates are a fraction of the cost of the total expense of buying?
You’re not doing the math.
Ok, I’ll bite. Let’s have an apples to apples comparison then. Where I live, there are good school districts, healthcare, parks, public transportation, malls etc.. I have looked for rentals in my area just out of curiosity, and I cannot find one rental that would have been less than my mortgage payment was (inflation adjusted of course). In fact, I would be paying MORE for LESS square footage.
Sure, I could move out to some desolate ghetto and have a 1 bedroom apartment and pay a “fraction”, but why would I risk my families safety and convienience to save a few dollars? This “renting is half the cost of buying ” is merely a facade in a true apples to apples comparison.
No.
A comparison is a same house sale. And on a same house sale at current prices, the place doesn’t cashflow.
Worse yet, the asking prices is 40% HIGHER than new construction costs(lot, labor, materials, profit).
Do the math.
I didn’t buy at current prices. Is that all your argument is predicated on? Even if I bought at today’s inflated price, paid off early, I will always have equity >$0. Renting is infinite. Someone already did the math, after 8-10 years, renting no longer makes sense.
Whether you “pay it off early” or finance the rest of your working life like you’re doing, renting is a fraction of the cost of buying at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing.
Do the math.
Absolutely.
“You make it sound like renters don’t pay interest. You do. You just pay it to a middle man called the landlord.”
I’d have to say the main difference between me and the landlord is that he is underwater on his ill-timed investment property purchase and I’m not.
“Nonsense.
Landlord expenses are never automatic passthrough costs.”
I don’t recall the exact wording of his post, but I believe Ben Jones recently suggested that rents paid have next-to-nothing to do with landlord purchase costs and ownership expenses.
> For every $1 of interest and property taxes paid, you deduct $2 from your federal income taxes.
Amy: You want to be a parody troll and get their goat, fine.. I kind of chuckle a bit. But please don’t post false information, even in jest. This is about the third time I’ve seen this. I would ask that Ben wield the ban hammer if this disinformation continues.
This is where it goes from comedy to evil. Sure, well informed people know this is not true. But I don’t think the vast majority are so informed.
Supporting NARSCUM is supporting those whose lies have ruined millions financially. Buyer beware doesn’t cover deliberate lies and fraud from my viewpoint.
Koch pays and Drudge publicizes:
“The number of Americans who believe global warming isn’t happening has risen to 23 percent, up 7 percentage points since April 2013.”
http://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-disbelief-rises-america-180339949.html
Interesting I would not be included in that 23%, since I do believe we have had global warming, but almost 90% was caused by natural cycles, and I do believe that co2 could raise temperatures in the future but only 1/7 per ppm of co2 as much as James Hansen thought. Also since plants actually need more c02 then the atmosphere presently contains for optimum growth and we may be heading into a mini-ice age, some more co2 in the air is a “good thing”.
It is all in how the question is asked. If you asked the Board do you think nurture plays an important role in determining whether a child will be successful, you would get 97%+ of the Board saying yes. But if you asked whether nurture or nature was the primary factor, you would have a major argument. That is similar to the deceit practiced by the AGW crowd on the question of global warming. Scientists were asked do you think that man was and is a significant contributor to global warming. If asked that I would say yes. Now, if you asked whether nature or man was the more significant factor, I would say nature.
Hope and Change
“Nations have so dragged their feet in battling climate change that the situation has grown critical and the risk of severe economic disruption is rising, according to a draft United Nations report. Another 15 years of failure to limit carbon emissions could make the problem virtually impossible to solve with current technologies, experts found.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/science/earth/un-says-lag-in-confronting-climate-woes-will-be-costly.html
http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2012/12/01/alarmist-quotes-on-agw/
Here, more doom environmentalists’ quotes.
“Al Gore’s 10-year warning – only 2 years left, still no warming
January 10th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
It’s been 8 years since Al Gore told us in January 2006 that we had only 10 years left to solve the global warming problem.
In the grand tradition of prophets of doom, his prognostication is not shaping up too well…still no statistically significant warming:”
Prince Charles has similar doom statements that did not work out. However, his excuse can be found in the quote:
“one man’s inbreeding is another man’s pedigree”.
However, Goon you are free to cut a check to your third world dictator of choice, I am sure it will be spent on the environment.
A quote closer to my view:
“There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.” —Global Warming Petition Project, signed by more than 31,000 US scientists and engineers, including over 9,000 PhDs, Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine website
PS Thanks Real Journalist, you are to me what Amy Hoax is to HA. If you did not exist, I would have to invent you.
Al Gore’s 10-year warning – only 2 years left, still no warming
I think real warning was Gore would be billionaire in 10 years. Only 2 years left and I think he will make it.
Crazy Enviros in a nutshell
Does it really matter so much whether global warming is “real” or “really happening”?
Shouldn’t we be more concerned about whether the likely impacts are as dire as advertised by environmental extremists?
This planet will be a real ecological utopia when it is populated by 12 billion of God’s little miracles.
I invite you to make the number one less today. Please off yourself and save us your CO2 output. Asap please.
You forget, he has stated here that he doesn’t want to try to save the world because it can’t be done. He wants to get his kicks before it goes up in flames.
Hey mathguy:
Where did that response come from? You think that people who can count should commit suicide? And then the remaining population could make its way right back up to 12 billion, but with no one counting?
>You think that people who can count should commit suicide
The entire population of the world can fit in the state of Texas with some reasonable amount of sq ft to live on. So clearly he can’t count. Can you?
When you start talking about how people are rats, I invite you to look in the mirror.
mathguy:
No one stated in this thread that people are rats. Did drumminj (or whoever he is) say that in an earlier conversation? People are not rats, which is why we need so many more square feet than you think for us to survive as a species on this planet.
FYI from yahoo, the quick math:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090729045557AAcDg82
1100sq ft per person in the state of Texas… So if you provided housing for every person in the world in 10 story buildings, allocating each person 1100 sq ft ( a family of 4 would get a 4400 sq ft apartment) 90% of the state of texas would be open space, and the rest of the world would be vacant.
If you built housing as 100 story buildings, 99% of texas would be open space, with the entire population of the world living there.
All this “ecological improvement through population control” is simple eugenics propoganda with self selected winners. Basically some pretty nazi-ish “super race” stuff. So yeah, I’m pretty against that.
Shouldn’t we be more concerned about whether the likely impacts are as dire as advertised by environmental extremists?
Exactly. Also, we should intelligently weigh the cost of prevention against any costs associated with the warming minus the benefits of the additional c02 such as more plant growth and in the extreme northern and southern areas more land available for agriculture and more resources available for mining etc.
Let’s do nothing and stay on the path of consumption and reproduction that we’re on now. Everyone posting on this blog will be dead within a hundred years, so any consequences we directly experience will be minimal compared to the next few centuries under the capitalist model of growth for growth’s sake.
We didn’t need the Maldives anyway.
According to Dr. Al Gofe, PhD Weather, Florida was supposed to be under water by now. What happened?
Hope and Change linked from Drudge:
“Movie producer Harvey Weinstein announced for the first time on Howard Stern’s radio show that he is making a full feature drama to try to destroy the National Rifle Association.
Mr. Stern asked Mr. Weinstein on Wednesday whether he owned a gun. The Hollywood heavyweight replied that he did not and never would. “I don’t think we need guns in this country. And I hate it,” the producer said. “I think the NRA is a disaster area.”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/15/harvey-weinstein-and-meryl-streep-making-movie-att/
Why Texas Is Growing (and Illinois Isn’t)
National Review ^ | 1/17/14 | M Barone
The nation’s economy may be growing again, but Americans — and potential Americans — are not acting like it. There’s a parallel here with poll results showing that majorities still believe we are in a recession that the National Bureau of Economic Research says ended in June 2009, nearly five years ago.
A vivid contrast is Texas, whose population grew 5.2 percent between 2010 and 2013, a higher percentage than anywhere else except much tinier North Dakota and D.C. With 8 percent of the nation’s population in 2010, Texas produced 18 percent of its population growth in the next three years. That has largely been the result of relatively high birth rates and high domestic in-migration. Immigration, running about the national average rate, has been a smaller factor, accounting for only one-sixth of the state’s growth.
The shale boom has obviously helped Texas, but it’s far from the sole cause of its strength. Its economy is highly diversified, to the point that it’s gaining high-tech jobs from Silicon Valley. From September 2007 to November 2013, when the nation lost 1.8 million jobs, Texas gained 1.1 million. Texas’s public policies — low taxes, light regulation — have clearly paid off.
The straggler here is Illinois, burdened with a sharp tax increase and huge public-sector-pension obligations. Its immigration rate has fallen below the national average, and its domestic outmigration rate in 2010–12 (the latest numbers available) was higher than any other state but Rhode Island. Illinois’s 2012–13 growth rate was the fourth lowest of any state. Poor public policy has proven capable of sapping the amazing historic vitality of Chicagoland.
Texas.
A national leader for percent uninsured, infant mortality, households in poverty, diabetes rates, childhood and adult obesity rates, and creation of minimum wage jobs.
Sounds like Utopia.
“A national leader for percent uninsured, infant mortality, households in poverty, diabetes rates, childhood and adult obesity rates, and creation of minimum wage jobs.”
Also a leader in illegals that contribute to all these issues. Take out the millions of illegals and the percent of uninsured, etc drops precipitously. You know this is the case. Stop acting like a moron.
“Take out the millions of illegals”
Racis
Texas seems to be a star even among the few tax free states. New Hampshire has its Free State Project of libertarians, anarchists, and voluntaryists. That FSP may keep New Hampshire a strong contender. It could be successful but it is one of those things that take a long time to show whether or not it is successful.
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
“The country is getting more diverse, and as the portion of white voters shrinks, so, too, does the conservative base. As demographics shift, so do political preferences — in this case, toward the left. A close examination of U.S. attitudes in the past decade-plus reveals that the United States is steadily becoming more progressive.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/american-politics-are-moving-to-the-left/2014/01/16/30161350-7885-11e3-af7f-13bf0e9965f6_story.html
Written by Steve Rosenthal, a longtime Democratic strategist and former political director of the AFL-CIO, is founder and president of the Atlas Project, which provides progressives with research and data. He is also president of the Organizing Group, which creates campaigns for progressive organizations.
Hey - I think I have some Rush articles around here somewhere…
FYI - People who are always for more free cheese usually rethink their position when they find out who will actually pay for it.
You’re missing the point. White people are a dying demographic. And what the Free Sh*t Army wants, the Free Sh*t Army gets. And you will pay. You will pay for their SNAP. You will pay for their WIC. You will pay for their Medicaid. You will pay for their Section 8. You will pay for their free school breakfasts and lunches. You will pay for their Social Security Disability. You will pay for their Earned Income Tax Credits. And you will pay for their Obamaphones.
“who will actually pay for it”
You will pay.
But you are missing a major point. When the Rodney King riots occurred, it was Korean business people that had their businesses burned. The only thing that unifies the democratic party is hatred of the white male. When there are fewer of us, the democratic party will split up so there is no permanent majority for the democratic party.
white males will decrease as a proportion of u.s. population but they won’t be extinct anytime soon.
and no, the democrat party will not split up. in fact, they will enact a ‘reparations tax’ to be paid exclusively by white males, to atone for the historical legacy of oppression through sexism, racism, slavery, colonialism. and it doesn’t matter if your people got off the boat in 1620 or last week, because you are a beneficiary of historical white male skin privilege.
Comment by real journalists
You’re missing the point. White people are a dying demographic. And what the Free Sh*t Army wants, the Free Sh*t Army gets. And you will pay.
—————————————————————————
and in return we will wipe the smeared feces from your ancient butt cracks and clean the bilious spittle from your mute yet trembling lips.
That’s what the 1% get for cr@pping on their “base” and importing cheap labor to replace their “base” in the workplace. Of course, they expected the base to not take it personally, as it was “only business”.
‘the United States is steadily becoming more progressive’
More massaging of the landscape from the WP, which is home to one of the nastiest bunch of neocons that exist.
It reminds me of this current phony debate; will it be Christie or Clinton? Who are they kidding? Clinton has only won one carpet bagging seat in her life. Christie is a complete ass-*^&*#. Just check out some of his press conferences on youtube. I’d bet most people in Arizona don’t even know who he is. But he is all for NSA spying. He says libertarians are dangerous! Clinton never saw a spot on a map she didn’t want to bomb.
Here’s what the neocon media don’t want to mention: Syria. It is nothing less than political upheaval that the citizens stopped that war. Forget the War Powers Act. For the first time that I can remember, Washington DC crawled back under its rock. And it happened in the UK too.
What I see is a re-assertion of self determination. From wars, to NSA, to Obamacare, to amnesty, people aren’t looking to a “leader” to tell them what to think.
The people will read what the “real journalists” write for them and they will vote for the candidates that the “real journalists” endorse.
The New York Times, Washington Post, and all television “news” channels (and this includes Fox News) will keep the people in line and voting for approved candidates.
Ron Paul will be remembered as a footnote, as an asterix, with as much political legacy as a fart in the wind.
Just remember, in 1983, 90% of American media was owned by 50 different companies. In 2012, 90% of media is controlled by only 6 companies.
‘will keep the people in line and voting for approved candidates’
Most people don’t read these papers anymore. 20 years ago would it have been imaginable that TV’s political influence would go away? The grip is gone.
What is the ratio of Americans who recognize who Kim Kardashian is versus who Ron Paul is?
2 : 1 ?
3 : 1 ?
10 : 1 ?
Whether in print or on television, the real journalists’ message dominates. And regarding fringe websites and blogs, the elimination of Net Neutrality will ensure that the message of the real journalists prevails.
Give it a few years, and opening the infowars home page will be like downloading a 4mb music file over a 14k/s AOL connection.
We are a nation that likes big butt, I cannot lie.
‘the real journalists’ message dominates’
Yeah, Kim Kardashian can put a photo of her Hugh Jass on twitter and get more eyeballs than CNN.
I think that the pendulum is swinging in favor of a different body type. Consider all of the attention that Miley Cyrus got in 2013.
Miley Cyrus = bear trying to lick honey off its face.
I think that the pendulum is swinging in favor of a different body type. Consider all of the attention that Miley Cyrus got in 2013.
Boney butts are just a passing fad, put that in my predictions for 2014.
However, personally I prefer quality over quantity in female butts. But they do need to look like they belong to a woman not a girl. Miley has a pedophile’s dream of a butt. Just IMHO.
“Here’s what the neocon media don’t want to mention: Syria. It is nothing less than political upheaval that the citizens stopped that war. Forget the War Powers Act. For the first time that I can remember, Washington DC crawled back under its rock. And it happened in the UK too.
What I see is a re-assertion of self determination. From wars, to NSA, to Obamacare, to amnesty, people aren’t looking to a “leader” to tell them what to think.”
Thank you for that, Ben. It’s so true. It does seem that the wheel of the ship of state has been turned. And just like an actual ship, sometimes it takes a while for the ship to respond and the momentum sort of seems to be following the same path for a while. And in the process, yes, sometimes you do hit an iceberg like the Titanic.
But people have to remember what the MSM is all about: they want to tell you how it is and dictate what you should be thinking and give the appearance that there is no hope, that you have to toe the line of their manufactured “popular opinion”. In other words, they like to ignore the green shoots and make it seem like it’s all brown squirts.
War-Wary Republicans Distrust Plan for Syrian Strike
John Parkinson - ABC News - Sep 4, 2013
As opposition to a U.S. strike in Syria seems to build in the House of Representatives, three key officials in the Obama administration took their case to the Capitol today, adamant that military intervention is in line with the country’s national security interests.
Still, Republicans on the House committee on Foreign Affairs expressed grave reservations about entering into what they deem a Syrian civil war.
Secretary of State John Kerry, fielding the bulk of questions from war-wary lawmakers on the committee, implored Congress to vote in favor of a resolution authorizing military force so that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will not be emboldened with “impunity.”
Kerry, who was joined by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey, did his best to convince members that the resolution does not put “boots on the ground.” But many members did not hold back their qualms that a military strike could spark a wider conflict and draw U.S. troops into a ground war.
—————–
The ‘Strange Majority’ Against Syrian Intervention
September 4th, 2013 - Cole Stangler - http://inthesetimes.com
Following Saturday’s surprise announcement by President Obama that he intends to seek congressional authorization for a possible military intervention in Syria, hawkish voices in the White House, Defense Department and the State Department have been pressuring members of Congress to authorize military force.
Secretary of State John Kerry has underscored that the President does not view the congressional vote, which will likely take place shortly after Congress returns from recess next Monday, as binding. But a “no” vote could make an intervention politically difficult. Several polls have already indicated the American public remains deeply skeptical of U.S. intervention.
Pro-war legislators have also dominated both the high-profile hearings in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and, to a lesser extent, the equivalent House hearing. By contrast, anti-war voices in Congress have been relatively slow to emerge. Libertarian Republicans like Justin Amash (R-Mich.) and Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) are opposed to intervention. So too are Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), former chair of the Tea Party Caucus, and others eager to inflict a political defeat on President Obama.
A letter to House Democrats on Wednesday showed signs that the Democratic leadership may be doing just that, to try to siphon off “no” votes. In the letter, Pelosi said she would convey Democratic suggestions to the White House, such as adding “language to prevent boots on the ground, to tie the authorization more closely to the use of chemical weapons and to address concerns about an open-ended timetable.” Pelosi promised that proposals to address those concerns are forthcoming.
Whatever kind of language ultimately emerges in the authorization bill that the House votes on, anti-war groups like CODEPINK, Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), MoveOn and the Institute for Policy Studies are still strongly pushing for a “no” vote. They’re lobbying members of Congress, organizing dmeonstrations, and urging supporters to call their representatives to voice their concerns.
But while there may be a general reluctance in the House to support an intervention, some of these left-leaning groups are still having difficulty getting their liberal allies in Congress to oppose the war. As PDA’s National Director Tim Carpenter put it on a conference call with PDA activists on Wednesday, “Many of our friends and allies are moving in the wrong direction.”
Many other liberals are undecided or simply have not yet gone on the record.
“It’s because they have to choose between the President and their constituents,” says Grayson of the hesitation among Democrats. “The President’s in favor of this and their constituents are against it.”
Still, a coalition of some anti-war Democrats and a larger group of Republicans could be enough to defeat the bill in the House. That would mark a victory for intervention opponents who want to defeat the war resolution at all costs. But anti-war activist and author David Swanson notes that the “strange majority” that has emerged is not without its effects on public discourse.
“What are you, chicken? Bawwk, bawk bawwk!” *flap arms*
“Well no. You however seem quite eager to fight. So, to satisfy the warlike desires of Congresspeople, we’ve create the 1st Congressional Battalion. You will lead the assault. You ship out this afternoon. Good luck. Hope you don’t die or see anything that drives you insane.”
God dang we need a new 3rd party now. A real one with enough of a percentage to force the debate from 2 sides to 3. One that hasn’t been marginalized or pigeonholed by the MSM as nutsos, whackos, or perennial losers. Last time I can remember thinking a 3rd party was in any kind of a position to really influence the debate was with Perot.
I’m at the point where I think I’d vote for a new clean slate 3rd party regardless of their positions just to change the debate structure from 2 sides to 3.
In the post-Citizens United political landscape, how exactly will this happen?
Oh, right. It won’t, because it can’t.
Koch, Soros, or whoever the 0.01%er du jour is will decide who you get to “vote” for.
“how exactly will this happen?”
I think step one is realizing both current parties are so controlled and rejecting them no matter what. Not getting mired down in the muck of tastes great v. Less filling. I see more and more smart people coming to this conclusion.
I believe it has to be a movement across society utilizing the internet and seizing on chances to point out where both sides are effed on any issue.
OTOH I’m very anti-progressive and have a very hard time not responding to Messiahlovers.
Maybe from now on I’ll just post a single word response to stand for the idea that just this one structural change can start us back on the right path: THREE!
“It is nothing less than political upheaval that the citizens stopped that war.”
Yeah, both Dems and R’s want to take credit for “stopping” Obama. I’m not convinced that Obama was all gung-ho. Thought his taste was more toward picking off individual wedding parties
, not happily singing “bomb bomb bomb” while turning entire countries into glass.
My tinfoil hat says that Obama was sabre-rattling, and/or there was some deal with Russia that we don’t know about.
Oh, Ben, you’re so completely wrong.
And all that NeoCon=Progressive nonsense…it’s all just some meme.
Don’t fret. Washington DC will see to it that your rights are protected. Just ask Rio and oxide.
Think Tank: “Extraordinary Crisis” Needed to Preserve “New World Order”
Author of ‘shock and awe’ doctrine says elite threatened by non-state actors like Edward Snowden
Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
January 17, 2014
Writing for the Atlantic Council, a prominent think tank based in Washington DC, Harlan K. Ullman warns that an “extraordinary crisis” is needed to preserve the “new world order,” which is under threat of being derailed by non-state actors like Edward Snowden.
The Atlantic Council is considered to be a highly influential organization with close ties to major policy makers across the world. It’s headed up by Gen. Brent Scowcroft, former United States National Security Advisor under U.S. Presidents Gerald Ford and George H. W. Bush. Snowcroft has also advised President Barack Obama.
Harlan K. Ullman was the principal author of the “shock and awe” doctrine and is now Chairman of the Killowen Group which advises government leaders.
In an article entitled War on Terror Is not the Only Threat, Ullman asserts that, “tectonic changes are reshaping the international geostrategic system,” arguing that it’s not military superpowers like China but “non-state actors” like Edward Snowden, Bradley Manning and anonymous hackers who pose the biggest threat to the “365 year-old Westphalian system” because they are encouraging individuals to become self-empowered, eviscerating state control.
“Very few have taken note and fewer have acted on this realization,” notes Ullman, lamenting that “information revolution and instantaneous global communications” are thwarting the “new world order” announced by U.S. President George H.W. Bush more than two decades ago.
“Without an extraordinary crisis, little is likely to be done to reverse or limit the damage imposed by failed or failing governance,” writes Ullman, implying that only another 9/11-style cataclysm will enable the state to re-assert its dominance while “containing, reducing and eliminating the dangers posed by newly empowered non-state actors.”
Ullman concludes that the elimination of non-state actors and empowered individuals “must be done” in order to preserve the new world order. A summary of their material suggests that the Atlantic Council’s definition of a “new world order” is a global technocracy run by a fusion of big government and big business under which individuality is replaced by transhumanist singularity.
Ullman’s rhetoric sounds somewhat similar to that espoused by Trilateral Commission co-founder and regular Bilderberg attendee Zbigniew Brzezinski, who in 2010 told a Council on Foreign Relations meeting that a “global political awakening,” in combination with infighting amongst the elite, was threatening to derail the move towards a one world government.
Ullman’s implied call for an “extraordinary crisis” to reinvigorate support for state power and big government has eerie shades of the Project For a New American Century’s 1997 lament that “absent some catastrophic catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor,” an expansion of U.S. militarism would have been impossible.
In 2012, Patrick Clawson, member of the influential pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) think tank, also suggested that the United States should launch a staged provocation to start a war with Iran.
Ullman’s concern over failing state institutions having their influence eroded by empowered individuals, primarily via the Internet, is yet another sign that the elite is panicking over the “global political awakening” that has most recently expressed itself via the actions of people like Edward Snowden, Julian Assange, Bradley Manning and their growing legion of supporters.
“It reminds me of this current phony debate; will it be Christie or Clinton? Who are they kidding? Clinton has only won one carpet bagging seat in her life. Christie is a complete ass-*^&*#.”
Are they both running as Republicans?
The war on coal continues…
Hope and change for everyone.
If we only had even bigger government and more regulations - we could fix this…
—————-
Vast Stretches Of Impoverished Appalachia Look Like They Have Been Through A War
The Economic Collapse blog | January 15, 2014 | Michael Snyder
If you want to get an idea of where the rest of America is heading, just take a trip through the western half of West Virginia and the eastern half of Kentucky some time. Once you leave the main highways, you will rapidly encounter poverty on a level that is absolutely staggering. Overall, about 15 percent of the entire nation is under the poverty line, but in some areas of eastern Kentucky, more than 40 percent of the population is living in poverty. Most of the people would work if they could. Over the past couple of decades, locals have witnessed businesses and industries leave the region at a steady pace. When another factory or business shuts down, many of the unemployed do not even realize that their jobs have been shipped overseas. Coal mining still produces jobs that pay a decent wage, but Barack Obama is doing his very best to kill off that entire industry. After decades of decline, vast stretches of impoverished Appalachia look like they have been through a war. Those living in the area know that things are not good, but they just try to do the best that they can with what they have.
Thinking about the future here and its bleak prospects is not much fun at all, so instead of too much black-minded introspection you have the pills and the dope, the morning beers, the endless scratch-off lotto cards, healing meetings up on the hill, the federally funded ritual of trading cases of food-stamp Pepsi for packs of Kentucky’s Best cigarettes and good old hard currency, tall piles of gas-station nachos, the occasional blast of meth, Narcotics Anonymous meetings, petty crime, the draw, the recreational making and surgical unmaking of teenaged mothers, and death: Life expectancies are short — the typical man here dies well over a decade earlier than does a man in Fairfax County, Va. — and they are getting shorter, women’s life expectancy having declined by nearly 1.1 percent from 1987 to 2007.
In these kinds of conditions, people do whatever they have to do just to survive. With so much poverty around, serving those on food stamps has become an important part of the local economy. In fact, cases of soda purchased with food stamps have become a form of “alternative currency” in the region. In his article, Williamson described how this works.
It works like this: Once a month, the debit-card accounts of those receiving what we still call food stamps are credited with a few hundred dollars — about $500 for a family of four, on average — which are immediately converted into a unit of exchange, in this case cases of soda. On the day when accounts are credited, local establishments accepting EBT cards — and all across the Big White Ghetto, “We Accept Food Stamps” is the new E pluribus unum – are swamped with locals using their public benefits to buy cases and cases — reports put the number at 30 to 40 cases for some buyers — of soda. Those cases of soda then either go on to another retailer, who buys them at 50 cents on the dollar, in effect laundering those $500 in monthly benefits into $250 in cash — a considerably worse rate than your typical organized-crime money launderer offers — or else they go into the local black-market economy, where they can be used as currency in such ventures as the dealing of unauthorized prescription painkillers — by “pillbillies,” as they are known at the sympathetic establishments in Florida that do so much business with Kentucky and West Virginia that the relevant interstate bus service is nicknamed the “OxyContin Express.” A woman who is intimately familiar with the local drug economy suggests that the exchange rate between sexual favors and cases of pop — some dealers will accept either — is about 1:1, meaning that the value of a woman in the local prescription-drug economy is about $12.99 at Walmart prices.
Joe and I are sitting in the Tug River Health Clinic in Gary with a registered nurse who does not want her name used. The clinic handles federal and state black lung applications. It runs a program for those addicted to prescription pills. It also handles what in the local vernacular is known as “the crazy check” — payments obtained for mental illness from Medicaid or SSI — a vital source of income for those whose five years of welfare payments have run out. Doctors willing to diagnose a patient as mentally ill are important to economic survival.
“They come in and want to be diagnosed as soon as they can for the crazy check,” the nurse says. “They will insist to us they are crazy. They will tell us, ‘I know I’m not right.’ People here are very resigned. They will avoid working by being diagnosed as crazy.”
The reliance on government checks, and a vast array of painkillers and opiates, has turned towns like Gary into modern opium dens. The painkillers OxyContin, fentanyl — 80 times stronger than morphine — Lortab, as well as a wide variety of anti-anxiety medications such as Xanax, are widely abused. Many top off their daily cocktail of painkillers at night with sleeping pills and muscle relaxants. And for fun, addicts, especially the young, hold “pharm parties,” in which they combine their pills in a bowl, scoop out handfuls of medication, swallow them, and wait to feel the result.
Cool story, bro.
These redneck junkies are demographically irrelevant to this country’s future.
The war on coal has equally hurt Native American tribes such as the Crow, Hopi and Navajo so it is just not the white man that is being hurt.
And those redskin alkies are demographically irrelevant to this country’s future.
The shamnesty = 50,000,000 new Democrat voters.
And the white poors and black poors in the Free Sh*t Army will never leave the Democrat plantation. What recipient of free sh*t is gonna vote for candidates who run on a platform of taking their free sh*t away?
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
And those redskin alkies are demographically irrelevant to this country’s future.
If you had been molested in boarding school you might drink too.
Mining stocks are up again. It’s good to be in positive territory on gold mining ETFs.
The mining depression could be about to end this year.
Looks like there will be a big strike in South Africa. I recommended platinum and palladium based on that strong possibility. Many of the platinum and palladium mines produce gold as a by product so mildly supported for gold. Also, there is a real possibility if the insurgent union AMCU is a victor that the strike will spread to the gold mines.
The strike just adds to the mining costs. Combined with the US Mint announcing record sales so far this early into 2014 and you could see prices driven up by shortages. At one point last year the mint ran out of tenth ounce eagles.
The existing strike at Northams conducted by the government connected union NUM has already cost 75,000 Oz production of platinum at a time it is already short.
http://platinuminvestingnews.com/8124-num-workers-turn-down-northam-platinums-wage-offer.html
For what it’s worth, platinum and palladium have a pretty good inherent industrial value, not just as precious metal.
For what it’s worth, platinum and palladium have a pretty good inherent industrial value, not just as precious metal.”
correct
more hope and change
‘for students across the country, lockdowns have become a fixture of the school day, the duck-and-cover drills for a generation growing up in the shadow of columbine high school in colorado and sandy hook elementary school in connecticut.
the lockdowns are part of a constellation of new security measures deployed by schools over the last decade, a complement to closed-circuit cameras, doors that lock automatically and police officers in the building.
some parents wonder whether the trend has laid a backdrop of fear and paranoia across their children’s education.’
this is just conditioning so the sheeple will respond ‘correctly’ in events like watertown, mass. or the chris dorner manhunt in southern calif. raise the next generation to be compliant herd of badge-lickers.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/us/in-age-of-school-shootings-lockdown-drills-are-the-new-duck-and-cover.html?referrer=
King had a dream, Obama has a drone, Rev. Wright says
Chicago SunTimes | 1/15/14 | Stephen A. Crockett Jr.
If the Rev. Jeremiah Wright believes — as he’s claimed in the past — that he and President Barack Obama will be buddies again when he’s out of office, the firebrand preacher didn’t do himself any favors Wednesday.
Speaking at a breakfast co-hosted by the Chicago Teachers Union to commemorate Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday, Wright said that while the civil rights leader proclaimed “I have a dream,” Obama says, “I have a drone.”
“Every Tuesday morning, there’s a kill list that the president decides who they’re going to kill this week,” Wright said.
Wright, his words spiced with sarcasm, questioned how U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan landed his job — after he “ruined the school system” in Chicago as CEO of schools.
Not sure why would Wright wanna be friends with war criminals again?
Fairfax VA Housing Prices Crater 13% Year Over Year
http://www.movoto.com/fairfax-va/market-trends/
Author: Shivom Seth
Posted: Friday , 17 Jan 2014
MUMBAI (Mineweb) -
In the Southern states of India, where real estate is often considered one of the safest investment options, gold has triumphed investments in property. A recent study has shown that over the last three years, 70% of Kochi residents in Kerala opted for gold against 9% who chose real estate.
As a region, South India is the largest consumer of gold in the country, with jewellery chains increasingly targeting the region with their expansion plans. The four southern states tend to account for over 40% of the nation’s overall gold demand.
The study also found that demand for gold as an investment has been gaining momentum among consumers, especially in Cochin and even across Delhi, in North India. Though gold is price sensitive, the study held that it is insensitive to price increase in certain quarters, especially in Kerala.
So lemme see if I get this right…
Shoe shine boys in India are buying gold, this proves gold is a good investment.
Middle class families in America are buying houses, this proves real estate is about to crash.
The cognitive dissonance on this board is staggering.
Well…. You’re right Slithers.
Say…. Hows the downhill skiing in Atlanta these day? Any tips on ocean front condos in Kansas?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/cruz-obamas-policies-worsen-income-inequality_774803.html
Love him or hate him, he is right. BTW, New Mexico has a conservative Latina governor. Cruz would not win the Hispanic vote for the Republicans but he would narrow the gap enough to win the Presidency. Our Governor is against open borders and still won in a state that leans Democrat. The establishment Republicans really do not want to win with a candidate that is against open borders but they do know that it is possible.
It’s a moot point who runs for the GOP in 2016. Hillary will win and win in 2020 as well. By 2024, the newly legalized illegals will have citizenship, cementing the permanent Democrat majority. Not just for president, but senate as well. Dems will have 60+ senators and the presidency for the next 50 years. Not that it really matters who has the senate since Obama has set the precedent of ignoring congress and doing whatever he wants.
You could’ve knocked me over with a feather when I read this. Jim Cramer, Mr. Mad Money of all people, tells it like it is on immigration:
“Can we just help people get jobs who live here? We have so many problems in our country,” Cramer told “The Steve Malzberg Show” on Newsmax TV.
“To me, this is so basic. We obviously should be taking care of our own. We’re Americans. Like, why can’t we take care of Americans? And how did that get to be bad?
“Like, I’m trying to figure it out. How did it get to be bad that we should be thinking about the people who were here first before we start worrying about the people coming in?
“Tell me how the people coming in create jobs?”
http://www.newsmax.com/NewsmaxTv/jobs-economy-immigration-trade/2014/01/13/id/546817#ixzz2qVDTKX6B
“We all decided immigration’s great. We have a series of trade deals that we’ve made with trading partners, including . . . major countries — Korea, Mexico — where we’ve gotten completely pantsed,” Cramer said.
“Pantsed”. I love that term. So descriptive.
“Can we just help people get jobs who live here? We have so many problems in our country,” Cramer told “The Steve Malzberg Show” on Newsmax TV
Buy and sell stocks. Sell porn, become a beggar on a street corner, etc. I can name some other things too. Oh, maybe learn a trade, if there are any jobs left for that. Seems we have over production, over capacity, etc. Funny thing is, the only reason I would shrug off taking an unemployment check nowadays is I could not set aside money into a Roth IRA because I’d have no wage income. Other than that, working sucks when you get told you are replaceable or are reminded that we have such a great place here in the USA but you still get dumped on if you just want yo make an honest living. Look around you. The working person is ridiculed. People who have figured out how to game the system get sympathy or applaud.
“The working person is ridiculed. People who have figured out how to game the system get sympathy or applaud”
Totally true. I remember reading that book “Class” back in the 1980s, and the author made some pretty good analogies between the upper and lower classes, how generally, most in both classes don’t work, are subsidized one way or another, etc. Very interesting.
I think it’s time to resurrect RAL’s daily blurb.
Realtors Are Liars
hi conartist glad to see your back in rare form. Do you have anything meaningful to add today?
when is sh@t going to hit the fan? how much time do I have to unload this shanty?
You sound so angry. I’d be angry like you if I had your losses.
Realtors Are Liars…. never forget that.
‘how much time do I have to unload this shanty’
Where is it?
MIT Professor Exposes Climate Change Hysteria
“The opportunities for taxation, for policies, for control, for crony capitalism are just immense”
Mikael Thalen
Infowars.com
January 17, 2014
A world-renowned climate expert is speaking out against the government’s ridiculous and continued climate change hysteria.
Speaking in regards to Massachusetts’ new $50 million climate change proposal, MIT Professor Richard Lindzen, a leading figure in the climate change movement, pointed out the absurdity of blaming every weather event on global warming and climate change.
“The changes that have occurred due to global warning are too small to account for,” Lindzen told WBZ-TV. “It has nothing to do with global warming, it has to do with where we live.”
Although supporting the theory of man-made global warming, Lindzen admitted that rhetoric from the political class and green movement has been nothing more than over-the-top “catastrophism.”
“Even many of the people who are supportive of sounding the global warning alarm, back off from catastrophism,” Lindzen said. “It’s the politicians and the green movement that like to portray catastrophe.”
Even more surprising, Lindzen goes on to point out the government’s obvious use of climate change alarmism to push greater state control, even warning over politicians’ use of “crony capitalism.”
“Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. The opportunities for taxation, for policies, for control, for crony capitalism are just immense, you can see their eyes bulge,” Lindzen said.
The growing number of failed predictions from alleged global warming experts has only cooled the public’s belief in recent months.
From 2007 to 2009, Al Gore hysterically warned that the North Pole would be completely “ice-free” by 2013. Instead, 2013 experienced record breaking cold and major growth in Arctic ice.
Similarly, Gore made desperate warnings over the danger of increased hurricanes during the same time period. Climate scientists had trouble explaining the record low hurricanes that followed soon after.
In his 1992 book “Earth in the Balance,” Gore went on to claim that global warming would soon wipe coastal areas of Florida off the map in as little as a few decades. Sea level statistics taken 18 years later revealed Gore’s predictions to be completely inaccurate.
White House Science Adviser John P. Holdren, who made failed predictions of global cooling in his 1977 book Ecoscience, blamed the recent “polar vortex” on global warming. Researchers soon uncovered a 1974 Time Magazine article where scientists claimed a cold polar vortex was the result of global cooling instead.
Climate change alarmists have become so crazed in their beliefs that some have attempted to equate skepticism with racism, claiming any denial of global warming is a “sickness” in need of “treatment.”
Unsurprisingly, major environmental issues such as the ongoing Fukushima nuclear disaster are completely ignored by Gore and company. Given the massive amount of money Gore has continued to make from generating climate fear, it seems unlikely that any real disaster unable to generate cash will receive proper attention.
This post originally appeared at Story Leak
This article was posted: Friday, January 17, 2014 at 4:00 pm
Speaking of Professors, Russell Johnson died yesterday, the Professor on “Gillian’s Island”. That man could take two coconut halves and some hemp rope and turn it into a telecommunication device. lol
Gotta love the late Sherwood Schwartz, the creator of that show, but not so much for the “Brady Bunch”. Sherwood was such a smart (former medical student), kind, and creative soul.
He was a writer for Red Skelton, btw.
Hadn’t seen this posted were DOOMED!
http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2014/01/16/over-100-employees-laid-off-from.html
A former ManpowerGroup employee, who wished not to be named, said that more than 100 employees in the company’s North American IT division were laid off.
The jobs were eliminated because the company is outsourcing some of the work to be done by UST Global, which is based in India. Last March the company also laid off more than 100 IT employees in Milwaukee and the United Kingdom to UST Global.
Mary Ann Lasky, a representative of the ManpowerGroup, declined to comment as to how many people were affected, where those people were located or where the work was being moved to.
The company issued a statement indicating that it is “continually looking for more efficient ways to run (their) business and remain competitive,” and indicated that the end result was “a slight reduction in our workforce.”
Furthermore, company officials indicated that the decision was difficult and that employees would be offered resources and career transition and coaching support.
ManpowerGroup has 30,000 employees worldwide, and of that 700 are based at Manpower Group’s headquarters in Milwaukee.
Reporter Denise Lockwood covers manufacturing and education for The Milwaukee Business Journal.
Reston VA Housing Prices Dive 14%
http://www.movoto.com/reston-va/market-trends/