January 22, 2014

People Thought The Party Would Go On Forever

The Wall Street Journal reports on India. “Indian firms are selling their assets to raise cash, as banks are tightening the screws on loan repayments to help stem rising bad debt. But selling assets in the current downturn isn’t going to be easy, bankers say, since global and Indian banks are hesitant to back companies seeking to buy struggling businesses that need large amounts of cash to turn around. Indian banks’ nonperforming assets climbed to 4.2% of total loans at the end of September from 2.4% in 2009. ‘Aggressive expansion by corporates during the boom phase with resultant excess capacities,’ contributed to worsening loan quality at banks, the Reserve Bank of India said in December.”

“Indian companies had borrowed heavily in the late 2000s, when interest rates were low and India’s economy was growing between 8% and 9%. Companies used the money to fund ambitious expansion plans. ‘People thought that the party would go on forever,’ said Avinash Gupta, head of finance at consultancy firm Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd.”

The Times of India. “It seems buyers are reluctant to loosen their purse strings or else why would apartments and villas worth about Rs 2,000 crore lie vacant in Kochi ask developers. Sources said the once-booming realty sector is awaiting the sale of over 2,000 apartments and nearly 1,000 villas. Even banks have noticed the trend as there is a marked decline in the number of applications and enquiries they get for home loans. ‘Earlier, we used to get nearly 100 applications a month, but now it has come down to 50. A study conducted by us last year revealed that there are over 1,000 flats in the 300 apartment projects approved by us, but there are few takers,’ said an SBI official in the home loan section.”

“Sources said that the apartment business declined by 60% and sale of villas fell by 50% over the past six months. ‘There is a dip in the number of enquiries and people who buy apartments as an investment have not shown interest in the recent period,’ said Gireesh Kurup of Bhavanam Expo, construction sourcing fair and property mart.”

“Though Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India claimed that the sector has been witnessing a steady growth, they admitted the present demand is not driven by those keen on acquiring property as investment. ‘There is no bubble in the sector and the speculative market has completely dried up,’ said organization president John Thomas.”

The Atlantic on China. “Nobody knows how much we should worry about China’s shadow banks, because nobody knows much about them. Not even the people buying their bonds. Reuters, for example, looked into one shadow bank product called ‘Golden Elephant No. 38′ that promises a 7.2 percent return, but doesn’t say what’s backing the security. After some digging, Reuters found out it was an almost-abandoned housing project in a rural province. This might sound like a scare story, but it’s actually a fairly typical one. They looked at 50 other products, and didn’t find much better—or any—disclosure.”

Dow Jones Newswires. “In the latest sign of trouble in China’s loosely regulated shadow-banking sector, angry bank and insurance customers who bought an investment product that they say has since failed appealed to authorities to help them recoup about one billion yuan ($167 million). The product in question involves about one billion yuan in funds raised in 2012 by a little-known investment firm, Beijing Roll-In Investment Co. Beijing Roll-In planned to invest the money in several public housing projects backed by the government in the city of Chengdu, in western China, according to a dozen of its investors interviewed by The Wall Street Journal.”

“The principal came due at the end of last year, but so far Beijing Roll-In hasn’t paid the investors, they say. ‘I bought into the product only because it was said to be both principal and interest guaranteed,’ said He Yujing, a Beijing resident who put in one million yuan in exchange for a 10% advertised return. ‘But now, not only did I not receive the promised return but also lost my principal.’”

“Said Wan Xia, an investor in the southwestern Chinese metropolis of Chongqing, ‘the firm hasn’t paid us anything.’ The product sold by Beijing Roll-In offered returns of between 10% and 13%, according to the investors. They say a prospectus issued by the company included standard disclosures on risk, but said both investors’ principal and interest would be guaranteed by a third-party firm.”

“‘Ping An Insurance really talked up the product, and when they pitched it to me in 2012, they said they were only offering this product to their VIP clients,’ said Tian Zhu, an investor who bought the product from the insurance company.”

Forbes on China. “The argument that China can grow out of the credit bubble is valid if and only if GDP growth increases the debt service capacity of the debtors. As GDP is only a measure of economic activity, not efficiency or profitability, GDP growth alone does not guarantee a proportional increase in local authorities’ revenue that could be used to pay down debt issued via local government financing vehicles (LGFV).”

“In mid-2013, investments in city construction, land reserves, transportation facilities and social housing made up 35%, 11%, 24% and 7% of the total spending by local authorities, respectively, according to Citigroup analysts. Bulls would argue that these hard assets could be drawn on to repay the debt. But the financial returns from the physical assets funded by LGFVs are largely unknown and mostly likely negative, judging by common sense. If those projects were financially viable, why didn’t local authorities invest in them prior to 2008 rather than waiting till the onset of the global financial crisis?”

“It is clear that policy makers in China are focused on engineering a transition to slower but more sustainable growth without causing a sharp cyclical slowdown. From an empirical perspective, however, the number of economies that have historically succeeded in letting the air out of the credit balloon in a gradual fashion, without creating a credit crunch and a short-lived recession, cannot be counted on any fingers or any hands.”

From CNBC. “Economist and Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo claimed that the Singapore economy faces a ballooning credit bubble - in its property and finance sectors and other parts of the economy - fueled by ultra-low interest rates. Much like Iceland, he argued, Singapore is being falsely perceived as a safe-haven economy that will eventually crash.”

“The bubble claims sparked a swift response from the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Singapore’s de factor central bank, which strongly denied any signs of a bubble, arguing that the government’s property cooling measures have worked to dampen sky-high property prices and reiterating the strength of the government’s finances and a solid banking sector. But it seems the debate is far from over.”

“Colombo pointed to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other high-profile economists who failed to preempt the economic collapse seen in the U.S., Ireland, Iceland and other hard-hit countries during the mid-2000s. ‘The bottom line is that Singapore authorities’ bubble denials do not help the country’s citizens any more than Ben Bernanke’s 2005 bubble denial helped Americans,’ he said.”

“‘In Singapore’s case, bubble deniers and apologists have not addressed the risk posed by the bubbles or frothy conditions in neighboring Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines,’ he said. He also pointed to the severe risks developing in China, which he describes as a bubble economy, due to rapid credit growth in recent years.”

“The Forbes columnist has made similar warnings about the Malaysian and Philippine economies, which were also met with responses from their corresponding central banks denying the existence of economic bubbles.”

“‘There must be an unwritten rule in the shadowy world of central banking that demands that dangerous, society-threatening economic bubbles must be denied and covered up at all costs,’ said Colombo.”




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68 Comments »

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 05:54:17

India bought into the “gotta invest…. get into assets” narrative of the banking elite, hook. line. sinker. Now they have to “raise cash”.

The same DebtDonkey repeats itself. Over and over and over.

Imagine the piles of cash they’d have if the just went with the no-cost, no risk option?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 06:01:10

Arlington VA Housing Prices Down 15% As Inventory Blooms

http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/

Never let lying realtors obscure the truth.

Comment by taxpayers
2014-01-22 08:47:45

arl is up over 10% from last year
dooooohhhhhhhhh
obama hiring

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 09:16:45

Apparently not according to MLIS.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:15:17

Is it coincidental that both India and China are parking record amounts of cash in the ultimate flight-to-quality asset right now?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:17:54

India’s exposure to US treasury bonds touches a new high
By Gayatri Nayak, ET Bureau | 21 Jan, 2014, 07.56PM IST

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:19:50

Markets
China, Japan Boost U.S. Bond Buying to Record Highs
Demand Should Contain Pace of Rise in Bond Yields, Keeping U.S. Borrowing Costs in Check
Min Zeng and Eric Morath
Updated Jan. 16, 2014 2:42 p.m. ET

China and Japan boosted their holdings of Treasury bonds to a record high in November, a sign two of the biggest foreign investors in the U.S. government debt market haven’t fretted about the rise in long-term interest rates.

The activities of foreign investors are highly scrutinized at a time when Treasury yields have climbed over the past year and bond prices have fallen on the prospect that the Federal Reserve would wind down its bond buying this year. Analysts said steady demand from foreign investors would help…

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-01-22 11:44:17

Gold? No, it is not a coincidence.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:35:11

“It seems buyers are reluctant to loosen their purse strings or else why would apartments and villas worth about Rs 2,000 crore lie vacant in Kochi ask developers.”

It sounds as though an investor-driven parabolic bubble price blowout may have driven prices to levels that no end-user can touch. Just a hunch…

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:37:20

‘There is a dip in the number of enquiries and people who buy apartments as an investment have not shown interest in the recent period,’

It’s interesting how investor demand in India can dry up overnight. Of course, this could never happen here in the U.S.

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-01-22 10:42:32

It can’t happen in India either.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:40:10

There is no bubble in the sector and the speculative market has completely dried up,’

That “no bubble here” statement confirms with 100% certainty that there was previously a bubble, which is now collapsing.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-01-22 08:32:47

It sounds as though an investor-driven parabolic bubble price blowout may have driven prices to levels that no end-user can touch. Just a hunch…

It sure can’t be the Indian white collar workers. I recall the HP has a school bus type of service for employees because most of them can’t even afford a car (only managers can).

The bubble in the USA is scary, but when you look beyond our borders you realize that it’s far, far worse elsewhere. As my brother learned during his trip to China, they perceive our real estate as being “dirt cheap”. It’s a house of cards waiting to crash.

Comment by cactus
2014-01-22 09:49:44

As my brother learned during his trip to China, they perceive our real estate as being “dirt cheap”. It’s a house of cards waiting to crash.”

Globalization if allowed to continue could put the screws to Americans higher standards of living, my friends from Asia say there is no country where food is cheaper, better yes cheaper no.

I’m reading a Botany book, humans have been cultivating grains for a long time now. Most of our main grains are no longer found anywhere in nature they have been modified and selected over for so many thousands of years.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-01-22 10:54:41

my friends from Asia say there is no country where food is cheaper, better yes cheaper no

I’ll bet its better than the stuff sold in China

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:42:07

“…angry bank and insurance customers who bought an investment product that they say has since failed appealed to authorities to help them recoup about one billion yuan ($167 million). The product in question involves about one billion yuan in funds raised in 2012 by a little-known investment firm, Beijing Roll-In Investment Co.”

What rolls in can roll back out again.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:44:50

“‘I bought into the product only because it was said to be both principal and interest guaranteed,’ … The product sold by Beijing Roll-In offered returns of between 10% and 13%, according to the investors.”

First sign of trouble: An investing firm offers guaranteed, above-market returns.

Comment by Rick O'Shay
2014-01-22 07:52:36

Sounds like the investors got rolled…

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-01-22 10:47:57

Roll-Through Investment Co.

It’s rolls in from the investor, and then right on through to a corrupt government official.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-01-22 06:44:14

“economic bubbles must be denied and covered up at all costs…”

Then papered over afterwards, at all costs.

I don’t suppose the Fed will be bailing out China and India when their Ponzis collapse, but I’ve been wrong before.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:46:41

If they do end up bailing out India and China, don’t expect to read about it in the pages of the Financial Times of London, the Wall Street Journal or The Economist.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:52:01

“The argument that China can grow out of the credit bubble is valid if and only if GDP growth increases the debt service capacity of the debtors.”

Uh…wouldn’t that development naturally lead to the issuance of more debt?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:58:39

‘The bottom line is that Singapore authorities’ bubble denials do not help the country’s citizens any more than Ben Bernanke’s 2005 bubble denial helped Americans,’

Sounds as though the handwriting is on the wall.

Then was the part of the hand sent from him; and this writing was written.

And this is the writing that was written, MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN.

This is the interpretation of the thing: MENE; God hath numbered thy kingdom, and finished it.

TEKEL; Thou art weighed in the balances, and art found wanting.

PERES; Thy kingdom is divided, and given to the Medes and Persians.

Then commanded Belshazzar, and they clothed Daniel with scarlet, and put a chain of gold about his neck, and made a proclamation concerning him, that he should be the third ruler in the kingdom.

In that night was Belshazzar the king of the Chaldeans slain.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 06:54:43

“Singapore is being falsely perceived as a safe-haven economy that will eventually crash.”

Should we logically conclude from that statement that Singapore is actually a safe-haven economy that will never crash?

Comment by In Colorado
2014-01-22 08:14:25

Singapore

And Singapore is supposed to be a gold plated Asian Tiger.

It seems that we are poised for a global crash. How will the PTB and Davos crowd react? My guess: fire up the printing presses, inflation be damned.

 
Comment by cactus
2014-01-22 09:52:22

Singapore were all the Millionaires live surrounded by poverty.

Yea I guess it could go down if things get out of hand..

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 07:13:59

Didn’t the late-1990s Asian crisis originate in Thailand?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 07:15:26

Jan. 22, 2014, 12:09 a.m. EST
Thailand declares state of emergency for Bangkok
By Warangkana Chomchuen, Kathy Chu and Nopparat Chaichalearmmongkol

BANGKOK — The Thai government declared a state of emergency in its capital in response to antigovernment protests that have paralyzed the city and stirred up increasingly violent attacks.

The decree was set to be imposed Wednesday and last 60 days, but protest leaders vowed to defy it and carry on with demonstrations aimed at forcing Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra from office.

Over the past week, unknown assailants have launched attacks on the protesters, killing one and injuring dozens. The unrest is also dragging on the economy, with Japanese auto companies, some of Thailand’s most important investors, raising a red flag that future investment could be affected.

If the political upheaval persists, it will have an “increasingly significant impact” on foreign investors, according to Rajiv Biswas, chief economist, Asia-Pacific, for IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm.

“Most investors feel that the political risks are so deep that there’s no solution in sight,” Mr. Biswas said. “They’re unable to make decisions about long-term investment if they don’t know who is going to be in power.”

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 07:48:53

Maybe well have some unique on the ground reports from Carl on Bangkok.

Comment by Carl Morris
2014-01-22 19:17:21

Don’t plan to. Although I here there’s a lot of ho fun in Bangkok.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2014-01-22 20:01:37

Sheesh, hear.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 21:04:39

lolz…. When are you back stateside?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2014-01-22 22:41:16

Should be back on the 29th as originally scheduled. Visa only allows 30 days at a time anyway. But our fruity overlords are already asking for us back within a week. No idea if employer is planning to support that. It’s a nice vacation from the new VP but it’s still a hardship. I’ve let them (my employer) know we need to talk before they can just assume that I’ll be back. After the early December debacle I need to job hunt just as an insurance policy if nothing else and they are not giving me time to do that. So I need a parachute if this is going to continue.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 07:45:06

‘It’s time to let China’s wealth management house of cards fall apart. A potential US$500 million default at China Credit Trust (CCT) next week is the perfect place to start.’

‘The 345 investors that bought CCT trust products through Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in 2011 aren’t sitting on buried treasure. Rather, the underlying assets for those products are a few dilapidated coal mines in Shanxi province. The price of coal has dropped 40% since a group of hungry investors poured their cash into the trusts, a form of wealth management product (WMP).’

‘A default at CCT could just be the beginning of a complete shake up of the industry, Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a note.’

“We do believe the chance of trust product defaults is to rise significantly in 2014 as about a third of the outstanding [US$760 billion] trust loans will mature this year, while a more confident government with successful power consolidation in 2013 sees the need to break the so called ‘implicit guarantee’ on trust and bond products,” he said.’

‘This is exactly what the central government needs to do. It would be doing everyone a favor by putting its foot down sooner rather than later on an industry that has channeled investors’ hard earned cash into bottomless pits.’

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-22 07:51:52

“It would be doing everyone a favor by putting its foot down sooner rather than later on an industry that has channeled investors’ hard earned cash into bottomless pits.”

Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.

– U.S. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 07:53:19

‘There should be no mystery why this investment, known as “2010 China Credit-Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product,” is on the verge of default. China Credit Trust loaned the proceeds from sales of the 3.03 billion-yuan ($496.2 million) product to unlisted Shanxi Zhenfu Energy Group, a coal miner. The coal company probably is paying something like 12% for the money because Credit Equals Gold promised a 10% annual return to investors—more than three times current bank deposit rates—and China Credit Trust undoubtedly took a hefty cut of the interest.’

‘Observers make the logical argument that “to have a market meltdown, you have to have a market” and China does not have one. Instead, Beijing technocrats dictate outcomes’

‘That’s correct, but that is also why China is now heading to catastrophic failure. Because Chinese leaders have the power to prevent corrections, they do so. Because they do so, the underlying imbalances become larger. Because the underlying imbalances become larger, the inevitable corrections are severe. Downturns, which Beijing hates, are essential, allowing adjustments to be made while they are still relatively minor.’

‘Why will China’s next correction be historic in its severity? Because Chinese leaders will prevent adjustments until they no longer have the ability to do so. When they no longer have that ability, their system will simply fail. Then, there will be nothing they can do to prevent the freefall.’

‘Even if Beijing makes sure there is no default on January 31, we should not feel relief. Just as Zhenfu followed Liansheng, there will be another WMP borrower on the edge of disaster after Zhenfu. And there are many Lianshengs and Zhenfus out there. There may have been 11 trillion yuan in WMPs at the end of last year.’

‘And at the same time China’s money supply and credit are still expanding.’

‘Even if credit expansion slowed last year, Silvercrest Asset Management’s Patrick Chovanec tells us why we should be concerned. As he wrote today, “Looking purely at the decline in the year-on-year rate of credit expansion is kind of like arguing that if I chase my shot of vodka with a pint of beer, I’m actually exercising moderation because the alcohol proof level of my drinks is falling.”

 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-01-22 10:57:47

Do you think the TBTF investors will be bailed out by China? How many of those investors are Chinese?

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 07:56:35

All the flailing, ducking, weaving and excuse making for grossly inflated housing prices is laughable. “materials are expensive!”. That beaut got eviscerated and exposed as untruthful. “Labor costs are up!”….. even a 5th grader knows better on that one. “It’s the land!” is the latest hubris from the clueless even though lots located at distances commutable to NYC are available for $10,000.

The reality?

We’re profitable building SFR’s at $55-$60 per square foot.

Why would you pay MORE for a run down 20 year old depreciating house?

Comment by Pearsy von Peepwig
2014-01-22 11:01:39

Did you say “duck”?

Comment by JingleMale
2014-01-24 05:57:12

+1…HA larious!

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:13:43

‘Overall loans and advances by Singapore banks as a percentage of GDP rose to around 120 in 2012. The figure stood at 74% in 2006. That is an increase of 46 percentage points. According to research by Fitch Ratings, credit crises have befallen countries that saw such a substantial rise in the credit to GDP ratio in a short span of time. More worryingly, Singapore’s maximum two-year rise in the ratio occurred in 2011 and in 2012 with the ratio jumping from just over 91% of GDP in 2010 to a little over 120% in just two years. That record is bettered only by Korea and China. As for loans to the real estate sector (to developers and to consumers), the ratio went up from 41% in 2007 to over 66% in 2012.’

‘In the last one year or slightly more, MAS has steadily expanded the range of administrative measures to cool the speculative fervour in the Singapore property market. These measures have begun to deliver. Housing transactions fell 80% in December over a year ago.’

‘In the final analysis, MAS and the Singapore government have done their part and, more importantly, they are still at it. Of course, in hindsight, they might wish that they had acted sometime sooner, say, in 2011.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:18:55

‘Credit metrics of real estate companies will deteriorate in financial year 2015 due to high residential prices impacting sales and rising bank credit increasing inventory in the sector, said rating firm India Ratings.’

“The sale of fresh residential units (in sq.ft.) by listed real estate companies has seen a downward trend in first half of FY14. This is due to weak consumer sentiments and low real estate affordability due to high prices. However, bank credit to the sector saw strong double-digit y-o-y growth in 2013, which indicates build-up of inventories,” India Ratings said today.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:21:52

‘Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. fell by a record in Hong Kong trading after shareholders rejected an offer by Chinese billionaire Zhang Zhirong to take the company private. Glorious Property dropped as much as 30 percent and closed 27 percent lower at HK$1.25, the biggest decline since Oct. 2, 2009.’

‘The company’s shares traded at less than half their net asset value before the offer, tracking a slide in China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group Holdings Ltd. after the shipyard co-founded by Zhang sought a government bailout. Zhang quit as chairman of both Glorious Property and Rongsheng in November 2012.’

“Glorious needs to speed up its asset disposal to improve its asset turnover and valuations,” Standard Chartered Plc Hong Kong-based analysts Andy So and Raymond Cheng wrote in a report.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:24:41

‘China’s statistics bureau released housing price data on the country’s major cities. Predictably, it is still expensive to buy a home in major Chinese cities, the data out last Saturday shows a 20 percent increase year on year in China’s major cities. This, according to the country’s top statistician Ma Jiantang, comes at no surprise.’

‘But not every city enjoys a rise, as housing prices in the third and fourth - tier cities have gone south.’

“Generally speaking, second and third - tier cities have seen steady price increase. Prices in several fourth-tier cities, however, are falling. So the situation is a split, and it would be an over-conclusion to use price hike in some cities to summarize the scenario of the whole country.” Ma Jiantang said.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-01-22 08:31:04

Collapse begins at the extremities and marches toward the center.

 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-01-22 11:07:32

I wonder if it’s considered rude in China to tell a person that they live in a fourth-tier city.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-01-22 11:46:30

They lose face and your face will get bruised.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:28:57

‘This year looks set to be an unsettled one for China’s financial markets as the government starts to deal with its debt issues, including the possibility of allowing the default of certain products.’

‘Usually, the government would step in to guarantee any loss incurred in financial markets but Beijing appears determined to continue its reforms and instill proper risk pricing, making a default much more likely.’

‘One reason for the change is that the government has made noises that it would let market principles play the decisive role in pricing and risk-finding, and meddling in the default process contradicts this.’

‘The other reason is that China’s debt size has mushroomed and the government can’t bail out them all.’

‘Furthermore, market observers do not take a trust product default as a serious sign of a system collapse because the buyers of trust products are high-net worth investors (usually with Rmb3 million or more in investable assets) who are supposed to understand investments and who are less likely to protest on the streets.’

“What will really spill over to financial markets is a debt default from a local government financing vehicle,” said Cui Wei, head of China equity strategy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.’

‘Cui believes that if one local government announces a debt default, a psychologically very important event, it will trigger a crash of confidence in the so-called “implicit guarantee” by the government.’

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-01-22 11:12:11

You mean like Roll-Through Investment Co?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-23 00:50:24

“…China’s debt size has mushroomed…”

How peculiar!

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:32:45

‘Analysts on Monday said they expected slower growth in China’s economy in the coming year after a rise of 7.7 per cent last year, equalling its slowest growth since 1999. ‘The trend is clearly downward,’ said Andrew Polk, China economist at The Conference Board. ‘It’s an ongoing structural slowdown. The biggest problem is the over-reliance on credit.’

‘Joerg Wuttke, a China specialist who advises the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, agreed that credit growth, which has fuelled “high debt of companies that mostly also have a negative cash flow” was the biggest danger to China’s continued fast growth.’

“If the credit expansion grows twice as fast as GDP (as in China), you have a problem,” Wuttke said.’

“Credit growth has sped up in the last four years and dwarfs the development in Japan in the ’80s, in South Korea in the ’90s and in the US before 2008,” he said.’

It’s funny how often this isn’t seen as a problem:

‘high debt of companies that mostly also have a negative cash flow’

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-23 00:52:24

1999 was the year preceding the ginormous Wall Street crash that nobody could have seen coming.

Just sayin’

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 08:39:36

‘Ping An Insurance really talked up the product, and when they pitched it to me in 2012, they said they were only offering this product to their VIP clients’

Did they compliment you on your nice shoes, too?

‘One of China’s largest insurers said it will look into allegations from investors that some of its salespeople sold them another firm’s product that they now say has collapsed. In a statement to The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, Ping An Insurance Group Co. said the company forbids its insurance agents from selling products on behalf of other financial institutions.’

‘Tian Zhu, a Beijing resident who says she lost 150 million yuan on the investment, said in an interview that her Ping An agent gave her an appealing message: “I’m pitching the product only to our VIP clients.”

‘Shadow bankers often lend to borrowers considered too risky for traditional banks, such as debt-burdened local governments, property developers and coal producers. Often, traditional banks and other big financial institutions in China sell investment products on these lenders’ behalf as a way to offer higher yields to customers.’

“I wouldn’t have put my money in had it not been because of the strong recommendation from my agent at Ping An,” Ms. Tian said.’

 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-01-22 08:50:22

Asia
the big difference:
people have to work
like 1920-21 here the asian crisis was brief 98-99 then
wake up workie workei

no free phone or 99ers

Comment by In Colorado
2014-01-22 09:46:19

The other big differences in Asia:

Protected markets. You want to sell your stuff here? Then you have to make it here. Sorry, no imports wanted.

Low wages. STEM grads paid US burger flipper wages

Jobs avalaible: We happily handed over our industrial base to them, and all the jobs associated with it. You can’t “workie, workie” when there are no jobs.

 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-01-22 11:17:58

I believe the “Asian Crisis” started a couple thousand years ago.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 09:19:28

Alexandria VA Housing Prices Dive 16% Year Over Year; Excess Inventory Grows 30%

http://www.movoto.com/alexandria-va/market-trends/

 
Comment by Puggs
2014-01-22 10:10:58

“The borrower is SLAVE to the lender”

 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-01-22 13:54:43

sing and malaysia will keep on keepin on

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-singapore-unemployment-benefits-2012-7

chop chop

 
Comment by Janet Felon
2014-01-22 14:01:29

We’ve been in bubble times for 15 years. At a certain point, we all die. We may never in our lifetimes see “normal” times again.

Comment by taxpayers
2014-01-22 14:13:21

3% mm 6% 10yr and 8% s&P
all my life till the bernack became king

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 14:30:07

Abnormalities like these always hit a wall. The longer they continue(duration is a means of increasing velocity), the more disintegration upon impact.

You really want to think twice before spending what you’ve accumulated. You’re going to need every penny of that cash.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-01-22 15:02:02

It’s a flight of stairs. For the last 40 years we’ve been bouncing up the stairs, recovering higher after every dip or collapse. Look forward to the next many decades of crashing down, each bounce lower than the last, until none of us who saw the biggest expansion of credit in history are alive to tell about it. Then things can be “different” again. Life will be better if you stay behind the curve.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-23 01:16:52

Maybe we’ve always been in a bubble, but you simply never noticed it until fifteen years ago.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-01-22 17:34:35

‘ZipRealty is plummeting on Tuesday after issuing a fourth-quarter warning in its preliminary report for fiscal 2013 and filing a shelf registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).’

‘The real estate brokerage said it expects fourth-quarter revenue of $17 million, below the company’s prior business outlook and 4.4% lower than a year earlier.’

“Real estate sales in our markets slowed more sharply than expected during the fourth quarter, and our relative momentum was not strong enough to completely offset that change. As a result, our fourth quarter revenue was below the outlook we provided previously,” said CEO Lanny Baker in a statement.’

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12254519/1/why-ziprealty-zipr-is-plummeting-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-01-22 20:02:32

They had a bounce. It is over. Time to buckle up.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-01-22 21:03:05

If NARscum were publicly traded, they’d have been delisted and the top brass jailed years ago.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-01-23 01:19:16

How often does friggin’ ZipRealty plummet? Seems like they are plummeting every time I read a news story about them.

True story: I once talked w/ a b-school prof who knew the founders before they dropped out to startup their company. She opined they had no clue what they were doing, but apparently a flood of VC monies can paper over lotsa buckets of stoopid.

 
 
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