Bits Bucket for January 23, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Have you protected yourself from a Treasury bond crash?
Forbes
1/22/2014 @ 6:00AM
Protect Yourself From A Treasury Bond Crash
This story appears in the February 10, 2014 issue of Forbes.
The U.S. Treasury is underwater, with a net worth of minus $17 trillion. It’s time to wager against it.
Treasury paper will not go into default, since the government can always print (and has been printing) the money it uses to pay its bills. But a distinct possibility is that lenders like China stop enabling American profligacy, with the result that interest rates go up and prices of Treasury bonds decline.
How do you make money from this crash—or at least lessen your losses from it?
Shorten maturities. You could sell a 20-year Treasury bond and buy a 10-year bond, or sell a 10-year and buy a 2-year. You’d still lose money in a bond crash, but you’d lose less.
Unless your portfolio is 100% invested in equities, it probably contains either T bonds or a close equivalent in the form of mortgage-backed or agency paper. If you do your fixed-income investing through no-load funds, you can migrate to the shorter end of the maturity spectrum without transaction costs.
TLTThe drawback to short-term bonds is their meager coupons. At the extreme low end of the yield curve, money market funds offer a 0% return, which comes to minus 2% after inflation. You can’t linger here forever.
Consider the maturity-shortening strategy a temporary one. Plan on getting back into longer-term bonds after a year or two, at which point bond yields will (you hope) be higher.
Buy puts. If interest rates shoot up, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) will get hammered. You can buy put options on this fund on the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The fund’s shares were recently changing hands at $104. The ONE-YEAR $100 PUT—an option expiring in January 2015 and entitling the holder to unload a share for $100—was offered at $5.10. There’s a frictional cost here, given that the true value of the option was more like $5.03, so you give up a few pennies to a marketmaker when you get in (and again to exit, if the option has value at the end). You also owe brokerage commissions.
Aternatively, you could have a fund place bearish bets on your behalf. The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Treasury ETF (TBT) maintains doubled-up short-sale positions on Treasurys. I’d recommend it if not for the 0.93% expense ratio. That’s stiff, even for this high-proof whiskey.
…
“Treasury paper will not go into default, since the government can always print (and has been printing) the money it uses to pay its bills. But a distinct possibility is that lenders like China stop enabling American profligacy, with the result that interest rates go up and prices of Treasury bonds decline.”
This has been a concern since as long as I have paid attention, going back to the late 1980s.
China accumulates record amount of US debt
Published time: January 16, 2014 19:10
China boosted its holdings of US Treasury debt by $12.2 billion in November, enough to pass record levels set back in 2011.
As noted by the Associated Press, China now holds nearly $1.32 trillion in US Treasury debt, marking a 0.9 percent increase over the previous month for the United States’ largest foreign lender.
“Large interest-rate differential and steady appreciation of the renminbi contributed to large arbitrage inflows into China, a situation made all the more easy with China’s increasing financial integration and renminbi internationalization,” wrote UBS AG Hong Kong-based economist Wang Tao in a report on China’s data, according to Bloomberg News.
Meanwhile, Japan also purchased roughly $12 billion in Treasury holdings, a one percent increase, boosting its second-place share to almost $1.19 trillion.
Overall foreign holdings increased 1.1 percent to $5.72 trillion, marking the fourth straight month in which foreign purchases of US Treasury debt has risen.
Despite China’s record level of US holdings, Wang expects the country’s purchases to slow down over the course of 2014, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to unwind its $75 billion bond-buying program.
On Wednesday, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that while a well-communicated tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases wouldn’t have “massive” and “heavy” consequences for the world economy, the global recovery is still “fragile” and requires the US to act carefully.
“It will be critical to avoid premature withdrawal of monetary support and to return to an orderly budget process, including promptly removing the debt ceiling threat,” Lagarde said at the National Press Club in Washington, DC.
…
January 22, 2014, 11:36 A.M. ET
Junk Bonds Already Up 1.2% In 2014 As Spreads Hits New Post-Crisis Low
By Michael Aneiro
Junk bond spreads continue to compress, hitting a new post-financial crisis low of 386 basis points (3.86 percentage points over comparable Treasury yields) at the close of business yesterday, according to a benchmark Bank of America Merrill Lynch index, the lowest spread seen since October 2007. Meanwhile the average junk-bond yield has slipped below 5.4% for the first time in 2014, to 5.397%, and the average price has risen above 104 cents to 104.1 cents on the dollar, and the entire market is already up 1.16% in 2014 after gaining 7.4% last year and 15.6% the year before.
…
30 percent gains a year are normal in stocks and housing. Also in body weight. Healthy children grow rapidly when first born. That trend should continue throughout their lifetime.
“That trend should continue”
http://www.picpaste.com/fat-kid-mcdonalds-769134-769471-rF562jtW.jpg
Credit Markets
Treasury Bonds Lose Ground
By Min Zeng
Updated Jan. 22, 2014 3:59 p.m. ET
Treasury bond prices fell for the first time in four sessions as some investors and traders bet the Federal Reserve would continue to dial back its bond purchases despite some recent disappointing economic indicators.
Sellers believe bond prices have room to fall as U.S. economic growth gains more traction this year, allowing the Fed to wind down its bond buying and pave the way for eventual increases in short-term interest rates.
“I think the bond market is getting worried about the economy taking off and the Fed being forced to play catchup,” said Anthony Cronin, a Treasury bond trader at Societe Generale. GLE.FR +0.18%
In late-afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year note was 10/32 lower in price, yielding 2.860%, according to Tradeweb. When bond prices fall, their yields rise.
An upbeat labor-market report Wednesday from the U.K. added to optimism over global economic growth, contributing to the selling in Treasury bonds. The jobless rate in the U.K. fell more steeply than expected to 7.1% in the three months to November.
The 10-year yield has risen from 1.61% at the start of May, when investors started to worry about reduced bond buying from the Fed. The central bank this month started cutting its monthly bond purchases $10 billion, to $75 billion.
The yield rose to 3.03% at the end of last year, the highest level since July 2011.
…
To put a finer point on my question, did you dump your bond fund yet?
Since everyone “knows” the Fed is going to keep tapering, it is pretty much 100% certain that long-term Treasury yields are going up, so prices are going to go down. Right?!
repeat after me: lather, rinse , repeat
lather = orchestrate a stock rally by printing lots of cash and sucking mom and pop in by using the greed of a rising market
Rinse= Flush mom and pop out when they get all giddy and smart by an event no one saw coming
Repeat= Pick up cheap assets from mom and pop and do it all over again
Since everyone “knows” the Fed is going to keep tapering,
If everyone know it, shouldn’t it be fully priced-in already?
To bonds, yes.
Not so much to stocks…yet.
Yeah yeah. Fed Reserve walks line on interest rates, indication that mortgage rates “are gonna” rise someday, house prices “are gonna” drop, sun rises in the east, details at 11. I guess that you “are gonna” post this every day until I pay off my house.
The other day I asked about Treasuries because they are part of my Fed retirement and you said they were stable. But now I need to protect myself from a crash?
yellen is your savior
They’re already falling in your neighborhood.
Arlington VA Housing Prices Dive 15%
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
Prince George’s County MD is a little bit different than Arlington County VA, “sweetie”. One is older and demographically darker, the other is younger and blindingly white/yellow. One market fell a lot in 2007-2011 while the other never really fell much due to the amount of gov contractors who live there.
mmmkay honeypot.
I’m not putting down oxy for buying in an area that is systemically depressed. I bought in a blue collar white area myself. It just means that in the good times I doubt the “value” of houses on my street will go crazy (absent some big development), but it also means that pricing won’t fall as much as the “high end” areas either. People buying in non-fancy, yet urban/well located areas are buying shelter, not participating in a pissing contest to see whose elementary school has more “blue ribbon” awards or whatnot.
Arlington has become “fancy” to the point that you can’t buy any house there without paying a huge premium. In PG county, outside of a handful of areas, you’re paying for shelter.
I bought in a blue collar white area myself
Blacks do not hold blue collar jobs in Maryland? I live in a mixed white collar and better paying blue collar area but it is still diverse.
Buying at all at asking prices in the last 14 years is a guaranteed disaster.
People have all types of jobs. My area is mostly older white people who used to work at Westinghouse or Bethlehem Steel. These were the higher paying blue collar jobs. Some might have been managerial (I suspect the old man who owned our house was managerial. I know he worked at Westinghouse.) Surrounding areas have people who used to work at the ports–those tend to be rowhomes or duplex. Jobs were union, more true blue collar. Traditionally blacks lived north of Eastern Avenue, more in the eastern district, not southeast. As much as times have changed, this hasn’t really changed yet. Obviously it will change; these boomers can’t live forever. I still don’t think my area will be an obvious target for developers–they tend to immediately on the water and like former industrial sites (= super cheap).
My point was that I wanted to avoid paying a premium for my house based on where it is. When some people hear where we live they are surprised. These are the types of people who believe a home is an “investment”, yada yada.
Suite Joey
Are you in Buffalo?
Joey lives in a not-tony area of Downtown Baltimore. Compared to DC, housing is extremely cheap there. During the bubble, the Metro subway was full of ads to buy in Baltimore (and commute 70 minutes each way).
“But now I need to protect myself from a crash?”
Some who post here hold very strong views about what the future will bring. I don’t count myself among them. At best I have hunches, but generally I find the interplay between fundamentals and the political process which leads to a financially-engineered economic policy response too chaotic to predict.
I prefer to take articles from the MSM financial pages on recurrent themes and post them here for discussion. This should not be taken as my personal beliefs by any means. For instance, I am quite skeptical about the recurrent stories suggesting the bond market is going to crash any time soon further than it already did over the period from May - August last year, though destiny may prove me wrong. I merely post these articles for your and other HBB readers’ entertainment, not because I believe they necessarily foretell the unforeseeable future.
Stay tuned!
“financially-engineered economic policy response too chaotic to predict”
u got that right about trying to predict what the money printers will do but we are sure developing a pattern.Bailout wall streets bad bets at any cost.
deflation is the enemy for sure. If you want a house prepare to become a debt slave and pay lots of interest to bankers.
The days of trying to build your own home are about over.
you really get the sense the people buying stocks have known they would print what it takes to keep stock prices high.
There is a feeling that the FED can keep assets prices high. do you think that is possible?
It doesn’t seem to be working out for them does it?
Except that they aren’t printing anything. They are taking bad assets as collateral for loans. That is a temporary sort of foolishness, much as we learned in the story of the Pied Piper.
Yes, and you are also mocking the PTB for attempting to push more fools into the stock market, no?
Yes.
One shouldn’t assume away the possibility the MSM writers are helping their wealthy corporate owners set up the other side of the trade. For instance, if you can get all the foolish suckers to tilt the boat over to one side by dumping bonds and going all-in to stocks, you can make a lot of money by taking the opposite side of the trade and waiting for the boat to right itself.
That’s how I read the overwhelming plethora of recent articles advising investors to “dump their bonds.”
I really appreciate your articles Whac. They are very informative. Keep up the good work.
I appreciate the acknowledgment, which is the only pay I get for posting here, aside from the fun of interacting with you guys. (Not complaining at all, either!)
Unless the PPT miraculously turns around the early U.S. stock market action by later today, check out what happens to long-term Treasury prices.
This is good news for bond owners and home owners, too!
Sadly for the latter group, bonds are highly liquid and can be sold at the first sign of a crash; not so much houses.
January 23, 2014, 1:01 P.M. ET
Bonds Rally Anew, 10-Yr Treasury Yield Falls Below 2.8%
By Michael Aneiro
Stocks are tanking again today and bonds are the beneficiaries once more, with the ten-year Treasury yield falling below 2.8% for the first time since December 10.
The 10-year note is currently up 20/32 in price for the day, trimming its yield to 2.783%, per Tradeweb data, while the 30-year bond is up 1 6/32 to yield 3.692%. One of today’s catalysts is an unexpected contraction in Chinese factory activity during January, which is weighing on stocks globally and fueling the bid that’s boosting bonds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is enjoying the ride today, gaining 1.2% to $106.58.
The ten-year Treasury yield entered 2014 at 3.006% and has fallen since, so far defying widespread expectations that yields will rise over the course of this year.
…
“The other day I asked about Treasuries because they are part of my Fed retirement and you said they were stable. But now I need to protect myself from a crash?”
The interest paid by the G fund interest is computed monthly. That is good news for those who invest in the TSP’s G fund because, when inflation kicks in, you will earn a higher interest rate on your investment when the interest rate paid on longer term Treasury securities goes higher.
http://www.fedsmith.com/2010/02/11/understanding-tsps-g-fund/
Yes and I actually locked in some profits today by writing calls on a small portion of my mining stock positions.
is the gold market manipulated by the PPT?
Yes, they need to hold it down so they can print money at will to support the stock market. They cannot have gold send the signal that they are risking inflation.
stocks and homes, the fastest way to some quick cash.
I’m doing a hold, man! mining stocks are way too low for me to sell now, particularly in the face of my former company stock being within ten percent of its all time high. I think I did a “buy low” strategy on mining stocks and ETFs last month. A great deal that was a slam dunk. When you see an asset class down 80% from its all time high and you see demand for that asset in other countries as well as government institutions (central banks) that profess to hate that asset (precious metals), what do you do?
My realtor friend told me today that homes in the IE will go up 25-28% this year.
Well…since realtors are known to bend the truth, I’d expect at least 50%. They were probably lowballing the estimate because they are trying to scoop them all up themselves before we can.
Moreno Valley will go up 63.4%. It is the land of milk and honey.
“My realtor friend told me today that homes in the IE will go up 25-28% this year.”
Right along with household income, right?
IE and central valley of CA are awful. It would make more sense for them to be part of Nevada or Arizona.
real genius thought there buddy.
From a budgeting perspective it was fairly profound. Making laws and assigning resources to SF or La Jolla (and the booming parts of CA in general) is said to be very difficult. Ever been to the dead parts of CA? It’s like a different planet.
I have pretty much been to all parts of CA. A lot of CA is very rural and not as glamorous as what they tell people on TV.
AZ and NV are great places. I just think you have to have a different mindset.
Mr jones is operating from a nice area with trees and fresh air.
I’m not prepared to become a debt slave so I can see the ocean everyday. Nice to visit but dont need to be there everyday.
It’s pretty funny that trees are so unusual that a few of them are enough to qualify an area as “nice.”
Oxide:
azdude was referring to Ben Jone’s city of residence, which is Flagstaff, AZ. It’s in the middle of a giant pine forest.
If it’s not within 10 miles of the NE Interstate 95 corridor, it doesn’t exist.
I’ve never said the 10 miles/NE Corridor thing.
And regarding California, if it’s not within 10 miles of the 405, it doesn’t exist.
And regarding California, if it’s not within 10 miles of the 405, it doesn’t exist.
“There’s no life east of Interstate 5″ - old San Diego proverb
“There’s no life east of Interstate 5″ - old San Diego proverb
+1 Not civilized anyway.
Can you imagine the mass migration of illegals, if IE became part of AZ?
RICHMOND, VA (WWBT) -
The real estate market is slowly but surely coming back… and so are the myriad of real estate get-rich schemes.
Cable TV has made house flipping seem fun and easy - but any contractor will tell you it’s a lot of work. And if you think you can get rich doing it after a weekend seminar, think again.
Than Merrill is one of the charismatic hosts of the A&E hit show ‘Flip This House,’ and Merrill has turned that cable program into a real estate empire.
A former reserve player in the NFL, Merrill is now an officer in two real estate companies: CT Homes and Fortune Builders. He uses his TV notoriety to promote a highly successful series of house flipping seminars all over the country.
With our hidden camera, we sat in on a Than Merrill free house flipping seminar at an Innsbrook hotel - the problem was, no Than Merrill. Instead, somebody named Danny Allen… trying to sell the crowd on another, three-day seminar - for just under $200. Some of the advice we heard ranged from the questionable - to the absurd.
Some of the tips: properties could be purchased and rehabilitated with little or no money down. You should seek out properties of people going through a nasty divorce - or those who’ve just lost spouse or parent - their grief or frustration might result in you getting a great deal. And don’t be afraid to borrow against your retirement account
Captured on hidden video, Danny tells the crowd that “possibly,” for a select few in the room, Than Merrill’s company might even be willing partner up - and finance a few deals with an exceptional Richmond student.
“More importantly, in the master’s program - you have access to us to do deals, we provide the money to do deals,” said Danny.
But not everybody buys into Than’s flipping theories. When he scheduled 11 seminars in the Cleveland area, the Better Business Bureau put out a warning about what it called the companies “predatory business practices.”
Cleveland City Councilman Tony Brancatelli went even further, saying, “the seminars are misleading its participants. It’s a pyramid scheme.”
I confronted the host right after the seminar.
Curt - “The Better Business Bureau in NE Ohio put out a warning about predatory practices, and they mentioned your company by name..so…”
Danny - “Yeah - there are two parts to our company - Fortune Builders and CT Builders. We’re bound to have some complaints.”
Danny Allen says the company has addressed all problems and says his business practices are on the up and up. A good number of the people who attended this free seminar must agree, because as many as a third signed up for the paid seminar.
Annapolis MD Housing Prices Dove 12% In 2013; Declines Continue
http://www.movoto.com/annapolis-md/market-trends/
Nice town. Just elected a 28 yr old Republican (although NOT tea party) mayor last fall. I’d move there if prices fall by another 30%.
I love the town, in some ways it reminds me of my hometown, Burlington Vermont.
That’s a fact….. Jack!
Have you ever been to Anacortes, Washington? It is a lot like the Lake Champlain Islands in Vermont.
Thanks for the warning. I’ll put Anacortes on my list of places to avoid.
It was not a political comment just the terrain.
“NAR is a problem. NAR provides forward guidance. And they do an enormous amount of economic reporting. ALL of which is grotesquely biased and dangerous. David Lereah quietly side-stepped off the scene after he had personally caused billions in aggregate damage to suckered Americans. So the NAR does indeed share a large portion of the blame.”
Now NAR and their media consultants and PR fraudsters are at the front line of the “housing recovery” narrative.
Herndon, VA Housing Prices Crumbled 15% In 2013
http://www.movoto.com/herndon-va/market-trends/
“If you have to borrow money for 15 or 30 years to pay for it, it’s not ‘affordable’ nor can you afford it.”
BINGO
Do you prepay your lease for the next 15 or 30 years?
Not that you could even afford to prepay it for 2 months.
1099 mortgage interest statements for the year 2013 are being mailed to home owners soon. For every $1 of mortgage interest paid, they get to deduct $2 from their federal income taxes.
And renters get to deduct… oh wait, they can’t deduct anything.
But renters costs are half that of those who rent from the bank.
And since you like bold and italic text so much:
Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
Allow me;
Paying a bank for 30 years will never feel like real home
Mom’s basement is the only “real home” that you’ll ever know.
It’s like this;
Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss.
Now try again.
This is comedy. Are these people related to each other, or the same person, by any chance??
Are these people related to each other, or the same person, by any chance??
More like, Dueling Banjos…
Do you prepay your lease for the next 15 or 30 years?
There you have it. Admission from a “realtor” that buying a house = renting from the bank.
Amy did you see the latest investment news? Realtor fees account for the biggest investment loss of any family savings plan, second only to cases where overleveraged buyers lose the homes completely.
“This year could go down in history as the one in which most cities in America finally put the recession behind them.
Nearly all U.S. metropolitan areas are forecast to see economic growth this year, even places that have been slow to recover from the recession, according to a report released Wednesday by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.”
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/headlines/20140122-for-dallas-other-big-cities-it-s-b-bye-recession-hangover-hello-growth.ece
But I sure do hope that this morning’s steep drop in stock prices continues for a while. The recession won’t be over until I can afford to buy stocks and houses.
The phrase “realtor friend” is redundant.
It’s redunculous.
No government contractor left behind:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/lockheeds-2013-profits-rise-even-as-sales-decline/2014/01/23/6f390acc-842b-11e3-bbe5-6a2a3141e3a9_story.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/general-dynamics-sees-flat-sales-despite-sequestration-and-shutdown/2014/01/22/97084f4a-837c-11e3-bbe5-6a2a3141e3a9_story.html
Contractors are the bloat in government these days. The pay is staggering for basically no talent. Ed Snowden for $200k with a GED is just the tip of the iceberg. Anyone with a B.S. or even B.A. should just go apply to Booz or Deloitte or CGI, it really is amazing what they’ll pay for random people. My summer intern’s first day at CGI was Monday, I need to check in with him. CGI was the firm that lost the Obamacare website contract (to Accenture)… he said he wasn’t staffed on that anyway.
It’s almost impossible to get a good federal job. And they pay much less than contractors, yet the talent pool you’re competing against is tougher for the fed jobs. Even the new consumer protection bureau is extremely competitive — I see double ivy/t6 law grad types with good firms on their resumes taking those jobs which I’m guessing top out in the mid-100s. I know prestige is a piece of it, along with lifestyle (and ability to use PAYE/PSLF, but they’re taking a 50% paycut from lockstep firms like Covington/Jenner/etc)
New York Times - Security Check Firm Said to Have Defrauded U.S.
“The company that conducted a background investigation on the contractor Edward J. Snowden fraudulently signed off on hundreds of thousands of incomplete security checks in recent years, the Justice Department said Wednesday.
The government said the company, U.S. Investigations Services, defrauded the government of millions of dollars by submitting more than 650,000 investigations that had not been completed.
From 2008 to 2012, about 40 percent of the company’s investigations were fraudulently submitted, the Justice Department said.”
Not a surprise. When I get calls from Kroll (it’s usually Kroll for whatever reason) it’s usually a person who sounds like they’re in India. They ask me a bunch of boilerplate questions about someone. Sometimes the questions are completely irrelevant to the particular person, but they keep asking it until I answer. For example, I never have salary info. I have an idea what we pay paralegals, analysts, interns, etc., but I could be wrong. I’ll offer a wide range, but they’ll keep pressing me. I also never know exact dates. I ask if they can give me the dates the person put on their application and they won’t give it. I don’t keep track of when people started working with me. Also, many times people were there years before I arrived. The whole background check thing is a sham. I think they’re sitting in Bangalore checking off boxes and filling in blanks. If someone actually was terrible at their job or had a drug addiction, they’d never really catch on.
I have applied with all those companies. They want you to have a security clearance, but I think you can’t get a security clearance unless you have already worked for the guv in some capacity; not sure. Most of the jobs require a secret clearance. You basically have to be a military person before they will hire you. They are also known for being extremely sexist.
the jobs aren’t all with the big boyz.
in the past four years, i have worked for 7 different contractors, and doubt that anyone on hbb would recognize the name of any of them.
and we have many alumni of lockheed, raytheon, general dynamics in the building. they start their careers at the big boyz and then move to a smaller shop, usually not vice versa.
in the past four years, i have worked for 7 different contractors
Interesting. At my mega-corp, that would be considered a red flag.
That’s seven contractors but only at two separate agencies.
So only one of the six moves actually was a job change. The rest were either contracts ending and getting hired by the new contractor, or changes within the contractor among subcontractors. So in this biz, it’s not a red flag.
and we have many alumni of lockheed, raytheon, general dynamics in the building. they start their careers at the big boyz and then move to a smaller shop, usually not vice versa.’
Most of your electronics are made in China or Tawain
Kinda blows your supply chain what do the alumni think of that?
LOL. Every day 50% of the posts on the HBB are about how nobody can get a good paying job. Ed Snowden got a job paying $200K. And now you’re whining that he was getting paid $200K.
Some people just love to complain.
Do your trolling on another thread, Slithers.
Joe Smith and I know more about government contracting than you ever will, your comment adds nothing to the discussion.
Actually, they are just saying that it’s kind of dum for the guvment to pay ppl so much for the contracting work, since it’s taxpayer money. When a job is funded by taxes, then it’s a zero sum on the economy. On the other hand, they (of course) will take advantage. It would be dum not to.
So $200K contractors…no good. But $200K state troopers…super duper awesome.
Got it.
Who said anything about state troopers?
You are trolling on too many blogs, and losing track of which conversations are going on where.
The Joe Rogan podcast for this week has Peter Schiff as the guest.
Thought this might be interesting to some people here.
“Schiff is known for his bearish views on the US economy and US dollar, and his bullish views on commodities, foreign stocks and foreign currencies. Schiff also voices strong support for the Austrian School of economic thought, first introduced to him by his father.”
Here’s a link to the episode on Stitcher (which is a great app for those of you with smart phones): http://news.stitcher.com/a/hBS4OPAB8rPf0B80UIqAAM68pUO/ep?TARGET_ID_RSSEPISODE=31911396
Joe Rogan….the comedian?
No, you’re the comedian.
He has a podcast where he discusses topics like privacy, the environment, freedom, the police state, the media, etc.
It is a lot better than I expected. It gets chatty at points, depending on the guest, but there are some real gems thrown in. The best part is that he is not some official media drone, but speaks about whatever he wants.
“He has a podcast where he discusses topics like privacy, the environment, freedom, the police state, the media, etc.”
So he’s the typical Hollywood moonbat. Pass.
So does that mean you’re OK with the police state spying on us?
Smithers is the worst troll ever. I wish Ben would ban him already.
Joe Rogan’s not a moonbat and he’s actually not a liberal. I’d probably classify him as a libertarian. Liberal on social issues, believer in self-reliance, anti-war, etc. He advocates living simply, eating and living healthily, not being afraid to tell the truth about things, being suspicious of government power in general, and trying to understand human nature (various conversations with authors, researchers, etc.).
Peter Schiff is an economist/trader who is conservative (Austrian school). It will be interesting to hear them discuss QE and so forth.
Netflix share price is rocketing.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/us-netflix-results-idUSBREA0L21X20140123
“”We see improving content and consumer acceptance driving a surge in profitable domestic streaming growth,” FBR Capital Markets & Co analyst Barton Crockett wrote in a note.
“House of Cards,” one of Netflix’s successful original shows, had four nominations at the recent Golden Globes, and won a Globe for best actress in a drama.
Analysts also said Netflix’s estimate of an 11 percent growth in net customer additions in the first quarter could be conservative, given that the second season of “House of Cards” is set to start in February.
Netflix also said that it was testing variations of its $8 monthly charge plan “at various price points.”
————————————————————-
At risk of repeating myself for probably the 20th time in the last year… Netflix is where it’s at. Yesterday’s remarkable earnings are no shock. Cable TV is dead. It’s only a matter of time.
It doesn’t actually take a smartTV to get good digital content. Get a decent internet connection. My Comcast internet is 5 mbps, which is fine for us, it can support online mode of GTA5 easily. Costs $19.99/month. No extras, just buy your own modem/router so they can’t charge you. Put a PS3 (should be cheaper now that PS4 is out) on your media room/family room TV. That takes care of wifi streaming of Netflix. PS3 has a very good BluRay player, it’s worth it just for the BR player alone. Amazon Prime has some good stuff as well and works with PS3 (as does RedBoxInstant, Crackle, Hulu, etc etc). Get Aereo for $8.99/month if you want to watch local TV. On secondary TVs, like in the office or kitchen, hook up a chromecast, then you can stream instantly.
Paying an upwardly creeping cable bill in 2011-13 remains a point of embarrassment for me. It’s not the money, it’s the idea. Also House of Cards is better than anything on cable anyway, by a considerable margin.
I turned the TV on for an hr yesterday about 7:00pm. That’s about all of the BS I can handle anymore.
I like reading housing analysts rants more than hearing about bruce jenners surgeries to become a man.
Sports is bout the only thing worth a sh@t left on that tube.
I want teevee without the food advertisements. They just serve to remind me how painful it is to eat right.
Got Cheetos?
“Sports is bout the only thing worth a sh@t left on that tube.”
Which is why the networks are sh@t*ng themselves over Aereo. It takes the network signals that are transmitted for free and then digitizes them. You create an aereo account, link it to up to 5 devices, and then can watch whenever, wherever. You can “DVR” in the cloud. Meaning, you go to the site, pick what you want to watch, check the box, and then when you go online tomorrow or next week, it’s there for you to watch. Of course you can watch live as well.
It really works. I’ve used it on my laptop, but they are beta testing their android app now and it will be available for PS3/XBos/chromecast soon enough. It already works on apple products but I’m not an apple guy.
$8.99/month. Carries local channels, weather channel, and a few others. I don’t have a subscription now, but may reactivate for the Winter Olympics and/or March Madness. I don’t watch enough otherwise. I don’t watch much period, but I see the utility in being able to join/unjoin for things I want to watch.
thx dude never heard of it till you chimed in. I checked my zip but not available yet but I will look forward to the day it is. thx
I just want to second what SJBE said. I don’t have a second TV, so I can’t speak to Chromecast, however between my PS3, Netflix and Amazon Instant Video (I also have Vudu), my video entertainment needs are very well covered. Netflix currently is a flat fee, which is cool, but Vudu and Amazon Instant Vid are al-la-carte so you only pay for what you view. Thus, in the summer when I’m never around a TV I am only paying $8/mo for Netflix because I don’t mind. Still WAY cheaper than the cable company for even the basic level of service.
Is Vudu international movies? I haven’t seen that on PS3. I think it might be avail on chromecast, though.
In addition to NFlix streaming, I have the Blu Ray package on Netflix simply bc some of the things I like are only avail on disc. For example, HBO content seems to only be avail on disc. Also new releases. I have Captain Phillips are home right now.
MMM is right when he says he feels like it’s way more content than any reasonable person could need. The ONLY thing you miss out on is the jabbering political junk and wall to wall sports. Some of the sports can be obtained cheaply via Aereo.
Amazon’s original shows aren’t as good as NFlix’s IMO. Nflix has House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, and Arrested Development. I would pick those 3 over anything on cable any day of the week.
I really like Netflix.
Market temblor noted.
I begin to doubt the decoupling theory, as the Dow dropped like a rock by over 100 pts. at the opening bell on the China slowdown news.
That is one explanation, an alternative one is that the PTB are worried that India might allow physical gold to trade freely (see post below), due to the exposure of big banks to losses if gold were to rise sharply since they have been shorting paper gold to keep the price of physical down so QE could be continued, we could be looking at another banking crisis and the lost of the dollar’s reserve currency status.
I have to admit that it’s my fault McD’s isn’t making any money. I always drive through and get two cheeseburgers and a water for less than $2 after tax. They probably lose money on the bag, napkins, and cup, not to mention the min. wage workers with no benefits who take my order, prepare the food, process my transaction, and hand me my “product”.
The only problem with this setup is that I always get stuck behind someone in an SUV with a 20-minute order who doesn’t realize that they need to go INSIDE with that. Oh, and then there’s the krap that I’m stuffing down my gullet, but that’s a minor issue.
Sorry Ronald, but don’t hate the playa.
Just lost a post, I think. Don’t do that to yourself. You can throw smoked salmon into a Costco spinach salad, eat just as cheap, faster and far healthier. I have been eating paleo longer than it has even been a recognized diet.
But that doesn’t taste as good as a double quarter pounder with cheese.
You can’t drive while eating a salad.
Actually should not be driving with a sandwich in your hand. I can eat the salad faster than you can drive to McDonalds and wait in line.
I do McDs during commutes between cities. It would take me longer to drive home and eat a salad.
Out where I live I just stop at the Native American casino buffets for sit-downs, while driving it is cashews out of the jar.
“…while driving it is cashews out of the jar.”
That sounds fattening, IMHO.
I try to follow the Jack LaLanne way of eating (with twists based on research - One square of Ghiradelli Square 72% cacao dark chocolate per evening is good for the heart).
Paleo is like it.
Jack LaLanne ate mostly salmon. And rather than do the ridiculous food pairing of red wine and beef, he did not want to give up salmon and drank red wine with salmon.
You could not argue with a guy who lifted weights most of his life up to 2 days before he died of pneumonia at age 96. In his 70s he had biceps that would put the average 20-something guy to shame.
This weight watchers thing is a flippin nightmare. I’m starving over here.
“Jack LaLanne ate mostly salmon.”
I distinctly remember him saying not to touch anything made with white flour, nothing!
Interesting. I could have written this post myself. Well, up until about 5 years ago and except that they couldn’t even make margins off the cheese off me. I too would get 2 sandwiches, but hamburgers not cheeseburgers. On the road plenty and this was a quick way to get calories. Pretty much have all fried and/or fast foods out of my system at this point…
And ditto on the SUV/minivan issue. I would often go inside myself depending on the lineup in the drive through lane.
I always drive by McD’s w/o stopping. I guess I get the blame for McD’s paltry sales and profits, but kudos for promoting healthier diets through my personal leadership in avoiding McD’s like the plague.
Has the reaping begun? Happy hunger games! And may the odds be ever in your favor.
Never been a better time to be out of stocks (Smithers’ dumbsh!t advice notwithstanding to the contrary)…
Jan. 23, 2014, 6:18 p.m. EST
U.S. stocks fall on China worries; Dow at 5-week low
Manufacturing contracts in China; gold and Treasurys rally
By Anora Mahmudova, MarketWatch
The Dow ends Thursday at a five-week low as investors react to weak Chinese economic data..
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday as weak economic data from China prompted investors to sell resource stocks and emerging-markets assets and seek safety in bonds, gold, and high-dividend paying sectors.
The S&P 500 (SPX -0.89%) fell 16.40 points, or 0.9%, to 1,828.46, breaking a two-day winning streak. Losses were led by financials and materials sectors. Only telecoms, a sector whose stocks are known for their dividend yields, ended higher. The benchmark index is down 1.1% year-to-date.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA -1.08%) fell to a five-week low, shedding 175.99 points, or 1.1%, to 16,197.35. The blue-chip index recorded its third straight session of losses.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP -0.57%) lost 24.13 points, or 0.6% to 4,218.87, trimming gains it clocked in since the start of the year.
Indexes suffered broad-based losses amid high trading volumes. Thursday’s total composite volume was the largest this year, as more than 7.3 billion shares changed hands, according to FactSet.
Investors appeared most worried about the surprise contraction in China’s manufacturing sector, which followed concerns over the country’s financial system. On Tuesday, China’s central bank announced it is injecting more liquidity into the system ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
“China’s banks have been having liquidity issues since last summer, and what worries investors is contagion. If their problems are severe, large banks in the U.S. and Europe will be affected, triggering another crisis,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. “What is happening in the U.S. stock market is consolidation and realization that the Fed is not going to come to the rescue of the markets with liquidity anymore, as the economy is growing again.”
Gold closed at a two-month high and Treasurys rallied, sending yields lower. The concern about China, alongside expectations the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening would lead to higher U.S. interest rates, hit emerging markets assets hard. The ETF tracking the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM +0.18%) closed at a four-month low.
…
I just want to gove a shout out to all the baby boomers who have made this American “dream” possible for younger generations. All those great politicians you guys elected with their great policies sure helped your children and theirs too. I’m honored to pay upwards of 40% of my income to support the losses you incurred. But hey, at least some of you guys are fat and happy, right?
Baby Boomers are SPS.
The insane welfare state was not put in place by the boomers.
It was put in place by their parents.
The bankruptcy of America was built into the welfare state. Mathematical - there was not a chance in hell it was NOT going to happen. Not much the boomers could do except repeal it or ride it.
Their choice? Ride it all the way off the cliff!
And Keeping voting obama!
What part of Permanent Democrat Supermajority do you not understand?
We are the real journalists. And we will decide who gets elected.
Actually it is your masters who will decide who you support and who gets elected. Citizen Kane will decide the winner.
All those great politicians you guys elected with their great policies sure helped your children and theirs too.
Huh? I’m 54 going on 55. A baby boomer. I voted libertarian for every president since I was eligible to vote in 1980 (except I voted for GWB in 2004). I campaigned for Ed Clark at age 21 in 1980.
I was elected for a minor libertarian office in 1982 in California. I was the campaign manager of a California state assembly candidate, Libertarian Party, also in 1982 - at the age of 23.
I paid my dues.
Now Victor, tell us how you worked against this broken system we have in place.
justin bieber arrested in miami for dui and drag racing
and even worse news, captain and tennille filed for divorce
Now, you are concentrating on the real important news.
We are the real journalists.
Bieber has been going in this direction for a while; he showed all the signs. His mug shot is full of zits. This kid needs to take his money and go Oil City stat before he loses it all. Maybe take on Lindsay Lohan as a roommate.
Do you have the TMZ app on your i-phone?
Do you follow Justin Bieber on Twitter?
“Justin = Winning”
-Charlie Sheen
LOL!!
Facebook is for baby boomers.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/investing/2014/01/22/baby-boomers-flock-to-facebook-while-teens-exit-en-masse/?intcmp=fbtopstories
The young folks have moved on to several other platforms like Twitter. Great. Who needs to wait 200+ years for biological evolution into Eloi and Morlocks when you can do it psychologically in about 25?
You sound bitter.
And Snapchat is where the kidz are at, it’s the most secure platform for exchanging naked selfies, and at a market valuation of $4 billion is greatly undervalued.
SnapChat and Rap Genius are where it’s at.
200+ years for biological evolution into Eloi and Morlocks
It will take quite a bit longer than that, perhaps you meant to 200,000 years.
Unfortunately I didn’t remember the exact # of years from The Time Machine. I don’t think it was 200,000 years. Maybe 2000 — which is mostly possible if evolution breeding happens Idiocracy-style.
“Who needs to wait 200+ years for biological evolution into Eloi and Morlocks when you can do it psychologically in about 25?”
Oxide. That was funny. Did I date you in college? I think that same line was said to me back then by a young lady.
Facebook is for baby boomers.
LOL! That didn’t take too long. Anyone remember myspace?
Speaking of important news, very early in the morning gold was down but then this news broke: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/01/23/gold-india-idINDEEA0M06U20140123
Now, gold is up over 20 dollars per Oz. If this really occurred gold would be at $2400 in a heart beat. I do not think this will occur within the next few months since the United States will continue to lean on India not to create that physical demand. However, if it does occur it is game over for the dollar, it would be a black swan since the PTB think they can control India’s policy on gold.
Was just checking the EIA website and we have 13% less natural gas and 5.3% less petroleum products than last year but 95% of the stories in the MSM are on what a glut we have of both in the U.S. Pathetic but I guess par for the course.
It’s a ruse to fix prices.
Do we have a glut or not?
Do we have a glut or not?
It depends on the region. The NE for familiar reasons is going to be paying up the yahzoo for energy. They closed coal fired electric plants due to “global warming” and old nukes due to safety concerns. They expected to substitute NG and alternative energy for them. However, the do not have the pipeline capacity to import NG to both feed the plants and heat their homes. Alternative energy has not come on as fast as they projected. So NG is spiking and people will pay more to heat their homes and because the electric plants are passing through much higher NG prices to the consumer much higher electricity rates. Of course, when you have a national energy policy of believing in fairy dust, you have this kind of disaster. As far as places like NM, plenty of NG still cheap to heat the home and the higher national price is just helping out the state budget.
So there are bottlenecks in transmission and distribution. That doesn’t answer the question whether there is a supply issue.
Sorry, but the transmission issues make it a complicated question. If we had an adequate transmission and distribution system, I would say that we do not have an adequate supply for the entire nation. But because we do not have it, we have local gluts and local shortages. Overall demand is being stunted by the local shortages so we do not have an overall shortage.
I remember Enron engineered a bottle neck and took California and the west coast to the the cleaners.
I can still hear the tapes with the traders laughing about it.
Market manipulation didn’t die with Enron.
Overall my gold mining stocks and ETFs are up 3.97%. 2014 is more and more looking like a turn around for precious metals. If that’s true about India, the gold manipulating Keynesians won’t be able to contain the price this year.
My company’s 2013 holiday party is tomorrow night. Wonder if we will have a holiday tree at the restaurant? Probably not. Lots of good wine, courtesy of the CEO. I’m going to order the best steak.
Because the coronation of Empress Hillary is inevitable
New York Times - Biggest Liberal ‘Super PAC’ to Fund Possible Clinton Bid
“The largest liberal “Super PAC” in the country has begun raising money to elect Hillary Rodham Clinton president, formally aligning itself with Mrs. Clinton’s undeclared presidential ambitions more than two years away from the election.”
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
There’s no way I’d vote for her.
Hillary will carry Colorado by at least 55 to 45 in the 2016 election.
Everybody in Colorado loves Hillary.
No many of the Hillary voters are going to be so stoned that they are going to forget to vote. It is the black swan of legalized pot.
Clicking a million Drudge Report links will not stop the inevitability of Empress Hillary.
We are the real journalists. And we declare that Hillary will win.
“There’s no way I’d vote for her.”
BS. You’ll vote for her. You are one of these “gee, I dunno, I have to do research on both candidates and think long and hard before deciding who gets my vote” types. And after all the thinking and deliberating and agonizing you end up voting for the Democrat each and every time.
And your rationalization is always I don’t like (fill in Democrat candidate) but (fill in Republican candidate) is a radical racist right wing racist radical who hates women, gays, minorities, men, children and puppies. So I will reluctantly go with (fill in Democrat candidate).
Wrong. I can’t stand her. Just seeing her ugly, phony mug makes my teeth hurt. That doesn’t mean I would vote for the Republican Canadian either, I would “throw away” my vote on a 3rd party candidate.
Voting 3rd party = voting for Hillary. Just like voting 3rd party in 2012 = voting for Obama.
We were told right here on the HBB that a vote for Gary Johnson in the last election was a vote “stolen” from Romney.
‘Voting 3rd party = voting for…’
Huh. A poster named Eddie used to say the exact same thing.
Voting 3rd party = voting for Hillary. Just like voting 3rd party in 2012 = voting for Obama.
Only if you would have voted GOP otherwise.
Below is from Rasmussen, it shows except for the 13%, who should be encouraged to not breed, most people understand what is going on and the problem is that the two party system just does not reflect their views:
Voters remain highly wary of crony capitalism in the United States. Seventy percent (70%) of Likely U.S. Voters think government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 13% disagree. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.
Nope. A vote for 3rd party = a vote for Democrats. You know this very well which is why you oscillate between voting Democrat and voting fringe 3rd party. Vote for Mickey Mouse for all I care, but then don’t come back and whine about how bad the state of the world is. You helped created it.
Right … not voting for Hillary, when you were expected to vote for her, is voting for her.
Just how long is the wait for a table at Applebee’s?
SlithieTard:
SO DID YOU. Progress requires criticism, followed by change. These are things that you are too dense to understand. Your wisdom is to always do the conventional thing, no matter how poor the results. Stock market repeatedly crashes? Buy at tops! Corrupt political system increasingly calling wrong shots for most people? Double-down on system! House prices at nose-bleed levels, while rents are low and decreasing? Buy a house!
Nice summary, Uncle Fed.
Slithers advocates homeownership (loanownership), loves the Federal Reserve, loves the NSA, loves status quo political candidates, hates charities, hates poor people, and hates anyone who wasn’t smart enough to major in STEM so they could make a big pile of money and build their own ski hill in their backyard.
He is the most joyless, contrarian, troll on the HBB.
You guys voted for Obama twice and whine non-stop about the world he’s created.
I don’t hate anyone. However I have no sympathy for people who made crappy life decisions and now expect me to pay for their mistakes. Major in STEM = good life. Major in 14th Century African Women’s Studies = serving coffee for the next 30 years.
Obama did not create the world.
I majored in molecular biology, and graduated summa cum laude.
Voting 3rd party = voting for Hillary. Just like voting 3rd party in 2012 = voting for Obama.
I got one even better Smithers. Is not voting the same as voting for ANYONE you vote against?
Wow I enjoy my power! I did not know how powerful my non-voting can be but Lysander Spooner was right. If enough people ignore the thugernment and realize we did not sign any contract to have the thugs run things, the thugernment would go away.
Imagine Hilary vs Palin. It would be pretty funny but also horrific. Good opening for a 3rd party.
I would live to see a pay per view cage match between the two. Palin would beat the hell out of her and I would enjoy it.
But since Cruz has the Harvard law degree, I see him emerging as the Tea Party candidate most likely to run for the Republicans. Of course, Karl Rove will do everything in the book to prevent that.
Yes, but only because Palin is younger than Hillary. If you had caged them up when Hillary was younger, then Hill would have a better chance. Hillary is also more intelligent, with more perserverance. If you gave her time, I think she could become a good practitioner of martial arts. I doubt Palin could conjur it up.
You also have to figure that Hill can afford more goons than Palin. If Palin won, then Hill would probably sick her goons on the lady, so as to teach her.
Cruz = a “birther” who was born in Canada himself. It’s esp painful to watch him bc he never mellowed and lost the belligerent personality he took with him to college. I had that same personality at one point, but by spring semester of freshman yr I learned how to fit in. I’d bet anything he was in Whig-Clio and his eating club was Tower or else Colonial or Quad (by now defunct).
I had that same personality at one point,
Had?
Maybe I still have it inside and it comes out online. However, in real life I have toned things down greatly and become very good at fitting in. There is also the question of fallibility. I admit my opinions are imperfect and am open to changing my views. This does not seem to be the case for Teddy.
Another interesting thing about Teddy is that he’s very well off by marriage. He would be (financially) a normal upper middle class guy except for his wife. I believe she’s an MD at GS.
heh…
Schwarzman on WBBR $hitting all over himself about Blackstones failing housing play. Too funny.
Wait. Who is this guy and what is he saying? Do tell.
CEO of blackstone.
Great news! Real genius, eh?
What exactly is he saying?
Blackstone’s earnings & profits are off the charts. Its profitability is the best of any PE firm. I didn’t hear this Schwartzman quote, but he’s anything but laughable.
HA is specifically referencing Blackstone’s US SFH fund.
Then let me ask Liberace…. shall we all bow at the fraudsters altar?
hope and change
‘just as the world’s largest economy is finally getting better, the public’s opinion of president barack obama’s handling of it is getting worse.
in a bloomberg national poll last month, 58 percent of americans disapproved of obama’s economic stewardship …
at the root of the dissatisfaction are flat-lined household income and a jobs market that still hasn’t fully recovered from the worst recession in seven decades.
for many families, the recovery doesn’t feel much different than the recession. real median household income of 51,000 is 8 percent lower than in 2007.’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-23/obama-can-t-shake-economy-s-downside-amid-signs-of-growth.html
Who cares? Stocks are up. Houses are up. The loseriest Banks on earth are RICH. The Thrive Eighty-Five has theirs!
Note
World’s economy and GDP don’t equal average voter. Far from it.
Example
GDP is higher due to manipulation of food and fuel prices so consumers have less, but GDP appears higher.
Banks pay 0% to savers and borrow from the FED then loan to credit card users at 20% and market manipulators who drive up prices.
for many families, the recovery doesn’t feel much different than the recession. real median household income of 51,000 is 8 percent lower than in 2007.’
I posted a link a few days ago that showed that 95% of the economic benefits of the “recovery” since 2009 have gone to 1% of the population. Of course, they do not feel the recovery.
“I posted a link”
Anybody can post links. But it doesn’t make you a real journalist.
As you are all well aware, I am working a contract gig in Phoenix. About 1.5 years ago, I was trying to get a job in Phoenix because the houses were underpriced, and I wanted to buy one so I could live in it. Can you believe that they are about 50% overpriced already? As soon as I finally find something down here, the houses are already ridiculous again.
It’s been this way my entire life. If I can get a job in a particular city, then the housing will be unaffordable.
I can totally afford to rent a nice house in an upper-middle class hood. If I wanted to buy something, it would have to be a DUMP in a place that is mainly inhabited by tweakers.
Yeah I rent a place also in Phoenix and from time to time I check on prices. I see that they are certainly too high. The investors bid up the prices in 2012 and 2013.
I like central Scottsdale (north of Indian Bend) all the way up to Carefree and Cave Creek. I also like Gilbert (my second choice).
A permanent residence right in central Scottsdale is my goal. It has the best bike path in the area - I biked it dozens to times. And it’s walkable. Great for when I’m older, working from home, and not driving as much.
I can wait a few years. I hope to be working in Irvine another 3 years or so. Then return to work permanently in Phoenix in software, probably Java language.
If I can get a job in a particular city, then the housing will be unaffordable.
If you got a job in a metro area, then chances are that a lot of people got jobs in that metro area. (not a knock on you, just in general…) And those folks with jobs need a place to live, demand goes up, housing goes up. Nothing new under the sun.
The solution is to rent - and invest the excess money left over in stock index funds.
The beauty in that is stock index funds in large diverse indexes such as the S&P 500, over the long run, do much better than the appreciation on ones own primary residence.
Wake up people. The meme during the housing bubble was that you will be priced out forever if you do not buy now. That was the big lie. The reality is that if you never buy but you rent and invest in stocks with the money left over, you will be far more ahead of a home owner by the time that home owner pays off his mortgage - 15 or 30 years.
A house is not an investment. Never.
I still one day might buy a house. But to me it will be like buying another car. A dreadful idea because I know the opportunity cost is enormous by buying a house versus investing the money I saved by renting in stocks. ENORMOUS!
I consider a house a depreciating asset relative to the stocks. A DEPRECIATING ASSET.
Need some advice. Bought in Dublin, CA for 730k in July 2012. House would probably fetch around 870k now so I lucked out. 5 bed, 4 bath, 2car, 2692 sq ft, sloped backyard. Prices going up because (a) it is cheap compared to SF and the peninsula, (b) school api scores going up as a result of a lot of tech professionals moving from said peninsula, and (c) a lot of chinese buyers with presumably wads of cash.
I’m waiting for my 2 years to be up before considering selling. Should I put the house on the market this July, or wait one more year in the hope that this madness takes it up some more? They’re still building like crazy out here. We were on the edge of the development when we bought; now we’re in the middle. New elementary school being built 1 block from our house, due for completion in 2015.
We love the area. Plan is to lock in the gains, rent nearby and ride out the crash, then possibly buy back if it drops enough. Don’t mind paying higher interest rates if price goes back to the 600k level.
Remember that this is still the Bay Area, which really is “different”.
If you’re really happy there, why would you sell?
Because I got burned in stocks betting against the FED, and lost a ton of money, which I’ve now made up tax-free by July, simply by buying a house through dumb luck and watching it go up in “value”. Not many people get this kind of chance. I can stash the profits and use them to pay a 3k rent for 3-4 years easily. Surely that’s enough time for housing to crash.
I don’t mind entering again at a lower price, because it will mean lower taxes for one thing.
The only risk is that house prices run away from me, but is that really going to happen? Even if I miss the peak I’ll surely get a better opportunity within 3-4 years.
And we were serial renters before, so no problem renting in the same school district.
If you have a long time horizon (ie. 10+ years), because you have school aged kids, and you like the neighborhood, why sell?
There might be a crash in home prices (which would make your plan great).
There might be some inflation (which would make your plan less great).
There might be a plateauing of prices for a while before a crash (which might make your plan OK).
There might be a steady decline of prices (which would make your plan good).
At the LOWEST point, what would your house have sold for in Dublin? Is that the $600k number?
Since it will be at least 5 years, trough to trough, tack on 10% (2% per year) to $660k (an equivalent inflation-adjusted price 5 years after the trough), and ask yourself if you want to deal with moving, renting, displacement once or twice, in order to sell for today’s price, and buy back again for a price that is 10% above the last trough value.
Of course, trough to trough could be much longer…10+ years is more typical…in which case, the inflation adjusted next trough could be over $700k.
Considering he overpaid a 250% premium and there might be a chance that he could escape with little losses, why would you encourage him to hold onto a depreciating asset?
I think the lowest point (after the crash) was reached around 2010-2011 in Dublin. My house did not exist then. The builder had their first release in March 2012 with a base price of 670k for my model. That went up to 690k by the time I bought, in the third release.
Extrapolating back in time, I feel that my house would have fetched about 600k around the 2010-2011 trough. Quite possibly even lower.
Thank you RW for your detailed scenarios. It sort of confirms my feeling that overall it would be less of a risk to sell than to hold on. And we have no problem moving or displacing, as long as we stay in the area (because of schools; kids are 12 and 8). We were renters from 2003 - 2012 and switched homes 4 times during that period.
I don’t understand this 250% premium. Compared to what, $50/sqft construction cost? This is the SF Bay Area sir, where prices (regardless of cost) have reached a permanently high plateau, to quote our friend LAY. Do I think housing here is overvalued? Sure, but that doesn’t mean I overpaid by 250%. That would mean the house was only worth about 200k when I bought it. A house like that in Dublin might have been worth that much in 1996, but not since.
It doesn’t much matter what we want construction costs to be. They are what they are.
“This is the SF Bay Area sir, where prices (regardless of cost) have reached a permanently high plateau, to quote our friend LAY.”
Curious…what do you think would happen to SF Bay Area home prices if the federal government exited their mortgage guarantee role?
Lesser Fool. I think it really depends on your time horizon. With your needs potentially really shrinking when your first kid goes to college within 6 years or so, I completely understand your perspective.
My youngest is 1…so I’m looking at my house as an 20 year hold from the day I purchased it in 2011…my analysis is totally different.
That said, not all RE cycles are built the same. There was an article I saw today about first time buyers getting pushed out by cash buyers (specifically noting this as a trend in SF). That is distinctly different from 2005-2007, where funny-money loans to people who didn’t have two nickels to rub together and terrible credit scores was driving prices ever higher.
Am I saying that there won’t be a correction in home prices? No.
Does it mean that it might take longer this time around to crack and go down? Maybe.
Does it mean that the downturn might be less severe? Maybe.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101359004
At least from this article, it doesn’t look like the mortgage guarantees are playing much of a part in the best locations.
Current conditions and conditions of the last 15 years are do not have the hallmarks of a “RE cycle”.
Even if I miss the peak I’ll surely get a better opportunity within 3-4 years.’
yea right
If you think you can get out from under the asset without losing a pile of money(questionable at this point), why wouldn’t you dump it?
I’m bearish on twitter and Facebook, that must be a sign for u to buy more.
I’ll only consider dumping after 2 years of residence. I hate paying taxes. Could cost me though …
I’m waiting for my 2 years to be up before considering selling. Should I put the house on the market this July, or wait one more year in the hope that this madness takes it up some more?
The mini-Internet bubble and the renewed housing bubble may both pop within two years, you can get out now with a profit even after paying the realtor. Yes the bubble might squeeze out another 5% on the upside but 30 to 40% on the downside is just as likely within two years. I think it is a no brainer to sell using the numbers you gave me.
I think the FED can keep home and stock prices high for a lot longer than you can remain sane.
In that case, I’m happy to wait. My backyard has a 2:1 and 3:1 upward slope. Maybe I’ll build some steps into it with my son’s help. There’s a view of the mountains from the top of the yard.
Hey… it’s your funeral.
My backyard has a 2:1 and 3:1 upward slope.
Put in a ski slope in works in Atlanta.
Put in a ski slope it works in Atlanta
I was thinking zipline but I like your idea too … I have a 60 foot length down the incline to work with, and it’s 50 feet wide
My in-laws have a slope like that in their yard as well. It is nicely terraced and has great views. There is some kind of fruit or vege in season year round, they have plums, avacados, figs, lemons, tangerines, etc, they really enjoy it.
On the 2 year rule, the issue is when did it become your primary residence? It is a question of fact. When did you close, take title and move in?
That being said, a §121 exclusion is not a reportable transaction on your 1040.
Why give that all up for an apartment with a view of a parking lot?
EddieTardSlithers,
A house can’t be rented? Another strawman from the King Of Strawmen.
SlithieTard
If you sell now you’ll pay cap gains tax on $140K. That’s $28K. So unless you think the house will depreciate by more than $28K until you hit 2 years, don’t sell.
You’d have to find a buyer at that price for those numbers to work.
Believe me, there are buyers. It’s totally insane, but my eyes don’t lie. I just realized that we signed the contract in July, but moved in (ie, took possession) in November 2012 (it was new construction). So would my 2 years be up in July or November?
Apparently not considering demand in your town cratered 13% and diving.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Dublin-home-value/r_51751/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D51751%26el%3D0
Ok, first of all that’s % of homes sold relative to % of all homes. That’s gone down from 6% to 5%. Big deal. By the way, does that include new construction? Because if new construction doesn’t count as a sale, it is certainly adding to the # of homes, thereby reducing the ratio.
Anyway, if you look at all other metrics, including zillow value index, list price, sale price, they are on an incline and not yet back to the 2005-6 peak.
I only need one
suckerbuyer.And you’re unlucky to find one.
And remember, per that data, housing demand has cratered every month for two years straight in your town.
In much the same way I can put a $50k price tag on my 13 year old chevy truck, you can ask for what ever you want for a depreciating asset like a house.
But where is the buyer at that price?
Lesser:
2 Things:
1. Yeah, it’s 2 years from closing, doesn’t matter when you signed a contract.
2. Ignore Housing Analyst
EddieTardSlithers,
Can you make another recommendation on Atlanta down hill skiing resorts?
Hey Lesser Fool:
I think you should wait to see what happens in spring. The market is faltering, but we are getting verrrrry mixed data. It could be faltering up or faltering down. People/investors are confused right now. The Federal Reserve does not seem to be offering price support for houses right now.
HA, I can personally verify that demand for new houses has NOT been cratering for 2 years in Dublin. It may be softening now, but it started to rise around the end of 2011, and was still rising in July 2012 when we signed. At that release of 10 houses, there were over 100 pre-approved buyers on the builder’s priority list. I know; I saw the list myself. Sure, they could have had their name on many lists, but I know that by the time the final release was done in March 2013 there were *still* over 100 buyers who could not get a house in this development. So I believe that demand was rising at *least* through that period.
Fast-forward to Fall 2013; builder sold 80-odd lots (along with floorplans for the same models) to KB home, who build new model homes and started offering them at the low 800k range. And suddenly the hordes dried up, which is still the case today. So I feel the demand softened only last Summer and continues to drop. But KB are still raising prices with each release and no incentives yet. They still think they can milk this some more I guess. And they are selling, albeit much more slowly than they were a year ago.
Having said that, another builder built bigger homes (3000-4000 sq ft, 3car, 5+bed, 4+bath, nice views on many) just across the valley and they are priced at 1.1 - 1.2 million. First release last Fall sold out that same weekend.
Overall, I’d guess that there are a total of around 200 new homes (maybe more) that are being built or will be built within a half mile of my house between now and 2015, when the master plan will be complete. Let’s just say that my house will be at the lower end in terms of size and price.
I don’t know what to tell you bud…. Every known source shows demand in your town and across CA has been falling.
What little demand there is is clearly dumb borrowed money.
We love the area. Plan is to lock in the gains, rent nearby and ride out the crash, then possibly buy back if it drops enough. Don’t mind paying higher interest rates if price goes back to the 600k level.”
Finding the top is tricky finding the bottom is even harder but it can be done.
What makes you think its near a top ?
1. China is softening. If the Chinese economy crashes, presumably the Chinese all-cash buyers will be taken out of the equation.
2. Median incomes have not risen in a year. Yet house prices are up 20% y-o-y in Dublin. I would not qualify to buy this house today at my current income level.
3. Interest rates were 3.5% when I locked in (30-yr fixed). Now they are 4.5%. I did some math and found a buyer now would need to earn 35% more than they did 18 months ago in order to afford the same house. I’m guessing they are only headed even higher which would knock out even more potential buyers.
4. The same model house that I bought is now being offered for 830k (base price; my base price was 691k). Not only does the new “base” have less features than my “base”, they are not selling out the release the day it happens, as they did when I bought. They *are* selling, but it takes much longer. So, in confirmation of HA’s stats, buyers *do* seem to be more cautious.
5. This year they reduced the max size of FHA loans. I forget the specifics, but remember thinking the max loan size was in the ballpark of that needed to buy these houses with 20% down.
All good reasons.
Sounds expensive there who mostly buys there ? Trust fundies? Doctors lawyers ? Chinese investors ? Or is it out of work Golf caddies with no documentation loans like the last bubble ?
Whats the affordability ? Median income versus median house price ?
Are people bragging about how rich they are on thier home prices ? They did last time I remember a Vietnamese technician telling how he was a millionaire because his house went up and how he was going to leverage it to buy more. I told him I was thinking of selling and he looked at me like I was daft. Santa Clara CA ~2005.
bubbles are an attitude as well as just the numbers IMO
I believe it’s mostly (a) high-tech professionals (many dual-income), and (b) Chinese investors. Median house price is around 640k and median income around 100k in Dublin. Which means a dual-income family could well qualify for the median house based on traditional metrics.
My neighbours are pretty chuffed about making 100k+ in their first year of home ownership. I don’t know about bragging, but they do feel wealthier and, I suspect, have no fears about the possibility of losing that wealth, forget going under.
“Median house price is around 640k and median income around 100k in Dublin.”
FWIW, $640k is a huge mortgage especially with wage growth flat for 20-yrs now. IMO, home price increases around the SF Bay Area are largely a function of steadily increasing government loan guarantees, not median wage growth.
Some day these loan guarantees will go the same way as federally subsidized flood insurance especially if the middle east situation deteriorates thus threatening Israel or the world’s oil supply.
Which means a dual-income family could well qualify for the median house based on traditional metrics.”
that means they make 200K per year ? last bubble people who made 35K per year were buying 600K homes that was a bubble
Finland’s gold and central bank manipulation
By Alasdair Macleod
November 1, 2013
On Wednesday Finland gave in to public pressure and revealed where it stores its gold (COMEX:GCZ13) reserves. The statement followed a press release by the Bank of Sweden on similar lines released on Monday.
Half Finland’s gold is stored at the Bank of England, and “no more than half” is “invested.” If any “investment” is to take place it would be in London. It is not immediately clear what is meant by invested, but presumably this is a result of translation of what has happened from English into Finnish plus explanation for a non-specialist readership. However if it has been invested, then by definition it is no longer in the possession of the Bank of Finland, and will most probably have been sold into the market in return for a promise to redeliver at a later date. This follows the Austrian National Bank’s admission to a parliamentary committee a year ago that it had earned EUR300m by leasing its gold through London.
The evidence is mounting that Western central banks through the Bank of England have been feeding monetary gold into the market through leasing operations. Indeed, the Finnish blog says as much: “Gold investment activities are common for central banks.”
This explains in part how the voracious appetite for gold by China, India and South-East Asia is being satisfied, without the gold price rising to reflect this demand. It is also consistent with my disclosure earlier this year of the discrepancy of up to 1,300 tonnes between the gold in custody as recorded in the Bank of England’s Annual Report, dated Feb. 28, 2013 and the amount recorded on the virtual tour on the Bank’s website the following
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/01/finlands-gold-and-central-bank-manipulation - 45k -
The Hows and Whys of Gold Price Manipulation
January 17, 2014
The evidence of gold price manipulation is clear. In this article we present evidence and describe the process. We conclude that ability to manipulate the gold price is disappearing as physical gold moves from New York and London to Asia, leaving the West with paper claims to gold that greatly exceed the available supply.
Quantitative Easing is a threat to the dollar’s exchange value. The Federal Reserve, fearful that the falling value of the dollar in terms of gold would spread into the currency markets and depreciate the dollar, decided to employ more extreme methods of gold price manipulation.
When gold hit $1,900, the Federal Reserve panicked. The manipulation of the gold price became more intense. It became more imperative to drive down the price, but the lower price resulted in higher Asian demand for which scant supplies of gold were available to meet.
Having created more paper gold claims than there is gold to satisfy, the Fed has used its dependent bullion banks to loot the gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) of gold in order to avoid default on Asian deliveries. Default would collapse the fractional bullion system that allows the Fed to drive down the gold price and protect the dollar from QE.
What we are witnessing is our central bank pulling out all stops on integrity and lawfulness in order to serve a small handful of banks that financial deregulation allowed to become “too big to fail” at the expense of our economy and our currency. When the Fed runs out of gold to borrow, to rehypothecate, and to loot from ETFs, the Fed will have to abandon QE or the US dollar will collapse and with it Washington’s power to exercise hegemony over the world.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/01/17/hows-whys-gold-price-manipulation/ - 125k -
The secretive machinations of central banks on gold makes mincemeat out of the gold opponents who call it a “worthless relic.”
But crypto currency could be here to stay. Maybe not Bitcoin but one of those others with stronger encryption and anonymity. Contract jobs of the future in the information industry will be transacted where either party won’t know the physical location of the other party. Digital cash will be sent to pseudonym e-mail addresses, making use of crypto features such as fingerprints, signed certificates and remailers. Pure anonymous cash won’t be able to trace back the previous holder of the cash.
I do not think crypto currency will replace precious metals, but be complementary. Crypto currency will be instrumental for removing borders, returning financial secrecy back to the people where it belongs, and melt away statism.
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to go after more strategic defaulters
The Federal Housing Finance Agency is pushing Fannie and Freddie to chase down borrowers who can make home loan payments but choose not to.
October 13, 2013|
By Lew Sichelman
Anyone thinking of skating on mortgages owned by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac may want to think again. As a result of new government reports, the two companies say they are going to do a better job of going after so-called strategic defaulters.
As the inspector general’s office says time and again in the reports, chasing down strategic defaulters can not only cut the enterprises’ losses on bad loans but can also “serve as a deterrent to those who would chose to strategically default on their mortgage obligations.”
Going after strategic defaulters is big money. According to the report by the inspector general’s office criticizing Freddie Mac’s lax practices, the company has left billions on the table.
Several factors influence the decision to pursue deficiency recoveries. But most important, state laws dictate timelines for filing claims. Some states do not allow deficiency judgments at all, but they are fair game in more than 30 states and the District of Columbia. But 10 have short windows — only 30 to 180 days in which collections are allowed.
But not going after defaulters where it is permissible to do so not only reduces the chances of recovering potentially billions, the reports point out, it “incentivizes” other borrowers to walk away from mortgages they can afford to pay.
The new inspector general reports are a follow-up to one issued a year ago that called the FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie and Freddie, on the carpet for failing to provide enough guidance about effectively pursuing and collecting deficiency judgments wherever and whenever possible.
In September, in response to a draft of these latest reports, the agency set down requirements for both enterprises to maintain formal policies and procedures for managing their deficiency collection processes, establish a set of controls to monitor their collection vendors and comply with state laws in an effort to preserve their ability to pursue collections.
And by the first of the year, the FHFA said it will begin to more closely monitor the effectiveness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s deficiency judgment processes. That’s government-speak for “We’ll be watching you from now on, so you’d better get your collection house in order.”
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/oct/13/business/la-fi-lew-20131013 - 88k
Is there a regional realtor organization more corrupt than California Assoc Of Realtors?
fannie and freddie?
Did I miss this? I don’t recall seeing this on the blog last month.
“Iceland to write €24,000 off every household mortgage”
http://www.thejournal.ie/iceland-goes-against-international-concern-writes-off-debt-1203320-Dec2013/
Cramdowns have arrived!
What is this ski slope in Atlanta deal I keep reading about for the past few days?
People are poking fun at yet another dumb thing Eddie/Smithers said.
SlithieTard claims to have purchased a house in Atlanta, Georgia. I think he made this claim when prices there were still too high (before the bust). He disappeared from the blog for a while, but now he’s back, always defending his purchase as “the right choice”, and “better than living in a one-bedroom apartment”. During one of his epileptic lying fits, he claimed to have a ski slope in the backyard, where his “daughter” practices skiing.
Just to play devils advocate here, I have seen grass skis before. They look like rollerblades of sorts, but same general concept with poles. Quite popular in europe when the weather is warm and people still want to practice.
Ok “victor”. .lolz
Google is your friend. If you are implying I am slithers or Eddie, guess again.
Eddie and Smithers are not the same poster, they just share the same warped delusions.
Eddie used to crow about his Atlanta area rental properties, and as the bubble was popping cited the allegedly long wait times for tables at Atlanta area Applebee’s as evidence the economy was on track.
Smithers lives near Spokane, WA. I don’t think he is lying about skiing a few hundred feet in the backyard, he just posted about it with such a douchey tone and some comment that renters can’t do that (I’d rather drive an hour and ride express chairlifts and ski 3,000 continuous vertical feet runs at Winter Park, thank you).
The anecdote about how busy some waterslide park in Idaho was last summer as evidence of how strong the economy is wins the crown of douche, it’s the hit single on Smithers’ Greatest Hits.
Gotcha, there are sure some interesting characters on here. Not sure if it borders general insanity to full on trolling. Entertaining nonetheless. Carry on.
Their motives get exposed eventually.
“Smithers lives near Spokane, WA. I don’t think he is lying about skiing a few hundred feet in the backyard, he just posted about it with such a douchey tone and some comment that renters can’t do that (I’d rather drive an hour and ride express chairlifts and ski 3,000 continuous vertical feet runs at Winter Park, thank you). ”
It’s not an either or proposition, son. What I said was - and I’m paraphrasing - I taught my daughter how to ski in the backyard. It’s a nice long gently sloped yard of around 750, 800 feet. It’s the perfect bunny slope and it’s free. And it was fun skiing the backyard.
I’m 90 minutes away from 2500 vertical feet myself of skiing myself and I go pretty much every weekend.
As for the water park…yeah it’s a good indicator. When people are starving - as the HBB claims - those people don’t spend $50 to go play on water slides. If you guys gout out into the real world every now and then you’d see this. But hey, as I’ve said before, no skin off my nose. You keep on investing in 0% checking accounts and renting for the next 50 years.
There are actual amusement park indexes out there that are used to gauge economic activity world wide. Google TEA/AECOM Theme and Museum Index.
It’s not all doom and gloon kidz, I promise.
Slithers…. I think you better stack on another 20 years before you invoke the word “son”. You’ve got some maturing to do.
My kids have obliterated the storm door. Whaddya think, lay low and put in a new one at my expense? We’re in year four of a good setup, and I’d like to have 1-3 more years in this joint.
What’s the cost relative to your rent, have you asked the landlord for anything before, and how good a shape was the door before your kids got ahold of it?
If it’s cheap, do it yourself no matter what.
If the door was almost new or in pretty good shape until your kids got ahold of it, do it yourself.
If the door was pretty old and rickety anyway, and you rarely ask for anything. I might try to split the cost with the landlord.
Go out and break the latch… there. The wind caught it. Now call the landlord.
Leave it to rentalpimp to come up with a raft of bs.
Parts of buildings wear out over time. It’s part of being a building owner to replace them (you know, that deterioration that you always talk about?).
However, if through rough use, you as a tenant shorten the life of that aspect of the building considerably, you can expect to have the landlord expect you to pay for part of it.
If the item in need of replacement was brand new, or in excellent working order, the “part” of the cost reasonably borne by the tenant should be 100%.
Unless it says otherwise in the lease, everything else would be a negotiation.
If there was dry rot in the floor, and the kids jumped off the bed and put their foot through the floor, who would be responsible for the repair?
If the fence had a number of the boards rotted out near the ground, and one of your kids crashed their bike into the fence, knocking over a section of the severely weakened fence, who would be responsible for the repair?
All that blather when the simple fact remains that the landlord owns the building.
And is responsible for it’s upkeep with respect to normal wear and tear.
If not, then all these single-family home rental investors made a brilliant move, since they can require that the tenants pay for ALL the maintenance.
Simple example…if you rent a house for 15 years, when you leave, you are NOT responsible for replacing the carpet.
Your kids did it, so your landlord ain’t gonna pay. Sorry, mug. Maybe your kids can get jobs???
More signs the depression is getting worse….
Southwest Airlines reported its 41st consecutive year of profitability for 2013, today. Its Q4 profit of 33 cents per share is a record. This happened a few days after Delta reported a record $2.7 BILLION profit for 2013.
But I know, I know. This doesn’t meant anything. It’s all doom and gloom out there. Everyone’s starving.
Doom and gloom?
Pick yourself up off the floor and cheer up Slithers. Falling housing prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positive bullishness.
the price of tickets has gotten absurd. I havent flown in about 5 years.
Hey “Comment by Mr. Smithers”
Let me show you something. I call it reverse trolling. See, you’ve spent several hours trying to insult everybody and start pointless arguments. Then, just when you’ve got the maximum attention; why your posts stop coming through! Gosh, here’s one deleted, another into the spam bucket. Darn, and they were so smarmy and childish. Oh, another one, gone. Don’t know what to tell you boy. (Boy is a much better put down than son, BTW). Looks like you’re banned. See ya!
Slithers… lola… it’s all good.
C Ya Slithers
smithers screwed smithers!!!
$10.00 donated to the HBB today here:
http://www.picpaste.com/HBB-HcWdVAeW.JPG
I just felt a huge weight lift off my shoulders.
Touche…
http://picpaste.com/pics/098c340f3626f1f176314ad34fb8a8c0.1390536439.png
Who’s next?
“Who’s next?”
I done that every payday…for years now.
“the price of tickets has gotten absurd. I havent flown in about 5 years.”
The flying public now has to carry more of the security burden in the form of higher ticket prices. FWIW, flying is frequently cheaper than other means of transportation especially if you factor in time, i.e., lost wages.
my world doesnt revolve around lost wages in every choice I make.
Off topic but according to the line below the one starting with “Bits Bucket…”
Post off-topic ideas:
http://www.azcentral.com/community/mesa/articles/20140123mormon-bishop-arrested-accused-of-luring-teens.html
I thought this was confined in catholicism.
I was wrong
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