A 13-Year Lost Decade
The Times Argus reports from Vermont. “At their most recent meeting this week, the Montpelier Planning Commission took up a familiar issue: affordable housing. Polly Nichols, a member of the city’s housing task force and housing director for the Vermont Housing and Conservation Board, said that more than a third of homeowners and renters in the city pay more than 30 percent of their income, and that many even pay more than 50 percent of their income toward housing. In terms of the age of residents, Nichols said more than half of Montpelier’s homeowners and fewer than 15 percent of renters are older than 55.”
“‘I think it tells us that Montpelier is not very affordable, either for renters or homeowners, and that the situation is getting worse,’ Nichols said. She added that the percentage of people living in Montpelier who are between 30 and 39 years old — a prime age for buying a home, she said — decreased by more than 15 percent between 2000 and 2010. ‘We’re losing our younger population, perhaps in part because they can’t afford to buy homes here,’ she said.”
The Nashua Telegraph in New Hampshire. “Housing sales are up even if housing construction isn’t, and many other sectors, such as finance and services, are blooming. It seems the Great Recession is pretty much over in New Hampshire. OK, then – where are all the new jobs? For that matter, where are all the new people?”
“‘This is the first economic recovery in my memory – and my memory goes back to the early 1970s – that’s not accompanied by a significant increase in population moving into the state,’ said economist Dennis Delay during a Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce luncheon panel about the economic picture. ‘This change in demographic growth has fundamental implications for New Hampshire going forward.’”
“Charles Arlinghaus, president of The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy, called the period since 2000 ‘a 13-year lost decade’ for New Hampshire job growth.”
The Brookline Tab in Massachusetts. “Massachusetts must significantly boost its housing supply to attract the younger workers needed to increase its labor force and help drive economic growth in the next decades, according to a Metropolitan Area Planning Council report. ‘More than a million of the region’s workers will be retired by the year 2030,’ Marc Draisen, the council’s executive director, said in a statement. ‘To fill those jobs and grow the economy we need to reverse the trends that see so many young workers leaving Metro Boston.’”
“The report says the number of school-age children in the region peaked in 2000, and is likely to decline in the coming decades. It warns that without an effort to increase housing production, one of the state’s biggest assets — a skilled and educated workforce — is in jeopardy.”
The Queens Chronicle in New York. “As we enter 2014, Queens, the most diverse area in the country, is experiencing something of a real estate boom. Eric Benaim, CEO of Modern Spaces: Long Island City, has also seen a hyperactive winter and believes that the market shows no signs of letting up. ‘Because the Manhattan market is out of control right now, the average person can’t afford anything there, so people come to Long Island City,’ he said.”
“Foreclosures have been common in neighborhoods like Jamaica, and their future isn’t as bright as other sections of Queens. ‘In places like Jamaica and Rosedale, they are pretty much stuck in the short sale and foreclosure market right now,’ said Laura Copersino, president-elect of the Long Island Board of Realtors. ‘Homeowners owe more to the bank than what their house is worth. It’s been like that for years now.’”
AM New York. “Dozens of New York foreclosure victims took to their phones Sunday in a massive phone conference to demand that the governor rethink his plans for the $613 million settlement awarded to the state attorney general’s office following its lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase. One Queens Village caller, who didn’t give his full name, said he couldn’t fathom why the state just didn’t go forward with its plans and fight foreclosure. ‘This was supposed to be our victory,’ he said.”
The New York Daily News. “‘As someone who has fought with Chase to modify my loan for three years, I find it disgusting that the money Chase was forced to pay as a punishment for their reckless behavior would be taken and used to fund tax cuts for the rich. This is supposed to help homeowners who were devastated by these toxic mortgages, and that’s how it should be used,’ said Jean Sassine, homeowner from Queens, New York.”
The Courant in Connecticut. “Connecticut is among 10 states throughout the country in 2013 that had an annual increase in the total number of residential properties facing foreclosure, up 20 percent to 20,141, compared with 2012, according to RealtyTrac. Jeffrey Gentes, a foreclosure attorney at the Connecticut Fair Housing Center in Hartford, said that he hasn’t seen a major improvement in the state’s foreclosure troubles. Slow job growth in Connecticut — resulting in long-term employment — is partly to blame for the state’s foreclosure woes, Gentes said.”
“‘We’re still seeing a lot of people having a lot of trouble,’ Gentes said. ‘Even if they get back on their feet or get a job, they still need help because they are behind in their payments.’”
The Daily Times in Delaware. “‘Price is what’s motivating buyers,’ said T.J. Redefer, owner of Rehoboth Bay Realty in Dewey Beach. ‘And the fear that interest rates might creep up. It’s still a buyer’s market.’”
“Redefer also said he sees more buyers from the New York and New Jersey region showing interest in Delaware. Barrows argues that demographic has long been a staple for Delaware real estate agents, but recent changes in those states’ market has helped Delaware. ‘Those folks couldn’t sell their homes in New York and New Jersey,’ she said. ‘Now they can sell their primary home and move here. That’s released part of that market to become real buyers.’”
“Kathy Lougheed, owner of Burton Realty Inc. in Millsboro, said 2013 was a steady year with gradual growth, but foreclosures still controlled much of the market. ‘When they go to closing, they become the comparable that appraisers use for the other sales,’ she said. ‘So it’s preventing the market from seeing increased values.’”
“Lougheed specializes in the back bay area of Sussex, including Angola and Millsboro, where she said several homeowners have lost single family homes or town houses. Though some houses are primary residences, many property owners are losing their investment or vacation homes. ‘Some investors bought them back when the market was strong and they can’t refinance, their only option is to short sell,’ she said.”
‘We’re losing our younger population, perhaps in part because they can’t afford to buy homes here,’ she said.”
No jobs to speak of I would bet is the primary cause though.
Thats ok, the banks will follow and enslave those young people wherever they go. There is no escape.
There is no geographic escape, but escape in place is quite easy. The bankers control debtors. Avoid being one.
NH has lost manufacturing jobs up the wazoo for years. There is no recovery here. Sure, we have overpriced housing and high property taxes. The only thing that is going to turn this pig around is substantial private sector job creation, and your not going to see that with the current regime. Same for other high cost of living Northeast states.
I can’t tell you the amount of 20 year-olds I meet in NC, SC and FL from Long Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, etc.
They all tell me the same thing.
They can not afford the taxes and housing at home. So they left.
And PS - I meet a lot of retired public union goons from the same states retired in low tax and right to work states.
And they laugh on how good they have it. They don’t make the connection.
It might have something to do with the horrendous weather 9 out of 12 months north of the mason dixon too.
There is a reason why places like Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland, Syracuse, etc. were settled and prospered until socialism killed them.
Cheap and abundant water
Cheap and abundant electricity
Cheap and abundant transport
Nearby natural resources
etc.
Agreed however these are things don’t make a difference to the people you’re talking about.
Manufacturing left those cities and went to … a communist country called China. The combination of cheap energy and slave labor killed those cities.
+! Snake, add avoiding environmental regulation.
I work with a younger Engineer originally from New Jersey. Says the taxes are 1000 dollars a month on a 400K house.
That’s not good no wonder people are bailing
I would say that’s about average in the mid-atlantic.
No, mid Atlantic is about 1% and we get commie services for that.
WRONG.
NY/NJ/PA taxes are over the top. $1000/month is a low estimate.
I save enough in income taxes by not living in NJ (now in FL) to pay for my car and boat. And, add in the fact that property taxes are lower here, the “total tax savings” is probably enough to pay for my wife’s car too.
Yes, it’s that significant. Viewed another way, NJ income taxes would be (by themselves) about 1/2 the cost of my mortgage. And my mortgage includes property taxes, flood and insurance (granted, flood and homeowners is much cheaper in NJ, just adding it all in to provide a comparison).
My wife’s brother lives in NJ in a house that’s valued around 500K. His property taxes are almost 15K/yr. My house in FL, higher appraised value, property taxes are 6.5K/yr (some of that, however, is because of the awful Save Our Homes law which reduces my taxes on the backs of new homeowners). Just the swing in property tax is a very nice car lease/payment (700/mo).
And, having lived there, I can say in an unqualified manner, NJ really has nothing going for it other than it’s “close to NY”. Which really doesn’t matter because NY is a terrible city to get into/out of from anywhere but the closest border towns in NJ.
I didn’t own anything in California, but I was paying about $1000/month in just income tax. Life is so much easier now, and my bank balance grows so fast.
“The combination of cheap energy and slave labor killed those cities.”
+1 And no import tariffs. Profits!
That’s nice for retired people living off their retirements.
There are no good jobs in Florida, no decent education for the kids (unless you want to fork over 20k a year for private school). People get robbed everywhere. Jobs with benefits and a (gasp) salary are few and far between. Air conditioning for those 6+ months when it is 90 degrees can cost well over $300 a month. Flood insurance is flying up. Pythons eat your dogs. Paying less than 500k for a house is a crapshoot with the variety of neighbors you may have. Thats just off the top of my head.
only gov workers will retire
the 20 somethings don’t know that yet
They won’t retire, they’ll be laid off and replaced with even more desperate younglings. Feudalism will be in full force in 3 generations.
Hick:
Unfortunately, “the current regime” is the globalist party, which includes all of the political parties that have been allowed to operate in this country for a few decades now. The 85 people who control 1/2 of the world’s wealth don’t really want free labor markets. They would much prefer to use poor countries (with dictators) to perform the labor, and then sell their product to people in rich (free) countries, who are ironically unemployed and broke.
You don’t need a job to afford things. You just need some credit, and a system which allows multiple personal bankruptcies while continuing to offer said credit.
“You just need some credit, and a system which allows multiple personal bankruptcies while continuing to offer said credit.”
+1 I frequently wonder if the “real historians” will get it right.
“‘This is the first economic recovery in my memory – and my memory goes back to the early 1970s – that’s not accompanied by a significant increase in population moving into the state,’
The boomer demographic migration is over. The peak occurred in 2005. With one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, they’re exiting SFR’s which will leave an additional 35 million excess empty housing units.
“The foreclosure crisis has drained an enormous amount of wealth from communities of color into the pockets of the Big Bank CEO’s.”
Real wealth isn’t lost to debtors in foreclosure, their debt is discharged.
Precisely. But that doesn’t stop the fraudsters from coining more counterfeit statements.
Step II- A pair of liars beginning arguing for each side to give the false statement some credibility.
many lived for free for years
Live rent free and now renting. Their costs are less than any ones, guaranteed.
“many lived for free for years”
+1 In a place like California a few of years of free rent is real savings.
They thought they hit the jackpot, but they didn’t, so they’re right back where they started from. This is “draining wealth”.
“Lougheed specializes in the back bay area of Sussex, including Angola and Millsboro, where she said several homeowners have lost single family homes or town houses. Though some houses are primary residences, many property owners are losing their investment or vacation homes. ‘Some investors bought them back when the market was strong and they can’t refinance, their only option is to short sell,’ she said.”
DE is a housing disaster story in and of itself. You want to see how private equity and hedge funds distort an entire market? Look no further than DE. DE is the east coast version of Phoenix and Vegas.
For DE shore homes, it looks affordable compared to NJ or MD, but then you realize that the business model is different. Nearly every community (vast majority) have HOA fees or land rent or another analogous arrangement where you pay hundreds (or thousands) per month on top of the house. And even after you pay the house off, the land rent/HOA fee stays. These aren’t even HOAs where there is maintenance to do. It’s purely a way for the developer to tap into additional money and have another revenue source to package up and sell off.
I found this because the shore houses in NJ where we spent summers have mostly been devastated by Hurricane Sandy and because Ocean City MD is a) crowded and b) expensive. So I thought, hmmm, what about DE? I found out that was the worst market of all.
Most of them are condos anyways. Walking .25 miles to the beach isn’t a “shore” home.
“Polly Nichols, a member of the city’s housing task force and housing director for the Vermont Housing and Conservation Board, said that more than a third of homeowners and renters in the city pay more than 30 percent of their income, and that many even pay more than 50 percent of their income toward housing. In terms of the age of residents, Nichols said more than half of Montpelier’s homeowners and fewer than 15 percent of renters are older than 55.”
It sounds like the Fed’s housing price reflation program is working out just great in Montpelier, Vermont.
Oil City, here we come!
It sounds like the Fed’s housing price reflation program is working out just great in Montpelier, Vermont.
Vermont is one of the few places where the prices did not collapse, at least prices in the Burlington area. My parents actually bought a house in Burlington for $13,000 in late 1969. I talked my mother into selling in late 2005 when I saw the bubble in the country. She sold for $186,000. Initially, houses dropped but now that house is worth well over $200,000, Zillow has a range all the way up to $220,000. Fortunately, I helped her to invest wisely and she ended up ahead renting but it was no where near the good call I thought it would be when I advised her to sell.
I wouldn’t say “collapse” but they dove pretty good in 2008 and then the moratoriums kicked in and they’re still there today.
VT has a price correction to deal with. A big one.
(Uncle Fed dons grammar Nazi hat)
“moratoria”
“treasuries or Treasury bonds”
(removes hat and takes defensive position)
“no where near the good call I thought…”
Don’t judge the call by the dead cat bounce.
My suggestion to Polly Nichols is to replace the missing thirty-somethings with a demographic of Chinese criminals willing to pay in cash. That will do wonders for housing prices!
I drove through part of Montpelier a couple of years ago and was surprised how small it was. I liked Burlington, but it was summertime — the equivalent of someone visiting Florida in March, with no idea what August feels like.
It’s the smallest state capital in America.
Vermont actually has a low unemployment rate and the people are quite resourceful in creating jobs. That said, most of the employment opportunities are in the Burlington area. BTW, Burlington VT has a high of 2 below yesterday and it is one of the warmer areas of Vermont. Vermont winters drive many people out of the state and that certainly is one of the reasons, I left.
Labor is very inexpensive in VT.
True dat. There are a lot of people with college degrees working retail since they want to remain in the state.
I’m not sure why they’d want to stay and starve…. and freeze.
Two of my counterparts set up assembly operations in VT in the last 10 years. By virtue of the fact that labor is so inexpensive, it become a challenge to manage. High turnover, newly developed skills and expertise internally tends to bale, etc.
I will never understand people who purposefully decrease their own standard of living, just for the patriotic feeling of remaining dedicated to a particular city or state. If you could have a better life somewhere else (more money, better weather, better job), then frigging move already. That’s what I always say.
What constitutes good weather is subjective. Too much sun and I feel homicidal. I like 4 seasons, and if given the choice between cold and hot I will choose cold every time. I can always dress warm, but can never get comfortable when it is too hot. I’m a boots and jacket kind of guy.
You’re also a boy named Janet. Cue the Johnny Cash tune…
“You’re also a boy named Janet.”
LOLz!
the city’s housing task force and housing director
the welfare industry is booming- and you’re buying
“the city’s housing task force and housing director”
Doesn’t sound like housing is a free market there.
The FSA on the march!
One Queens Village caller, who didn’t give his full name, said he couldn’t fathom why the state just didn’t go forward with its plans and fight foreclosure. ‘This was supposed to be our victory,’ he said.”
The New York Daily News. “‘As someone who has fought with Chase to modify my loan for three years, I find it disgusting that the money Chase was forced to pay as a punishment for their reckless behavior would be taken and used to fund tax cuts for the rich.
The FB’s should be thanking their lucky stars that the bank doesn’t deny them the mod outright, kick them to the sidewalk, sell the house for market, and sue the FB to make up the difference including the squatter money they’ve squirreling away. Banks would be within their legal to do all of that.
That said, I’m surprised that no one has offered some kind of compromise where the FB could stay in the house if they jumped through some very dear hoops.
Banks would not be “within their legal” to do that, aside from the fact that the Fed is paying them not to do so.
It takes years for a foreclosure to be digested by the NY court system. I don’t think it has been discussed here but the NY courts have no interest in judgment trials against FBs. Besides, once the house is lost, the FB could easily stave off any judgment through the BK court and start fresh with a coffee can full of cash from not paying the mortgage for several years.
‘There were 22 checks in all, arriving in the last five weeks of a fund-raising period in which Gov. Andrew Cuomo raked in $7 million for his re-election campaign.’
‘They totaled $109,000, sent in chunks of $5,000 or less because New York law caps its corporations annual political contributions at that amount.’
‘They all came from the same place: the Greenwich offices of The Richman Group, a real estate company that regularly interacts with the state of New York and its related entities. According to an analysis by the New York Public Interest Research Group, the firm’s various legal components have contributed $264,000 to Cuomo since he took office in 2011, and are his second largest donor.’
‘During a Friday morning radio interview, Cuomo said criticism of his fund-raising was “baloney,” and that “I don’t care if somebody gave me a ton of money or gave me no money — it makes no difference” in terms of how he acts.’
“I don’t care if somebody gave me a ton of money or gave me no money — it makes no difference” in terms of how he acts.’
Yes, I am sure they give him a ton of money because it has no impact on his behavior.
These contributions serve to achieve the same end result as a bribe.
Would it be great instead of his nazi like speech of how conservatives are no longer welcomed or should live in NYS - Cuomo instead said that NAR is no longer welcomed?
“bologna”
Spelling people, spelling!
Here in New York State it’s the public employee unions, government contractors, real estate interests, and Wall Street running the show. Everyone else is a serf.
‘In the Hamptons, the median sales price was $770,500 in the fourth quarter, down 15 percent from the same period last year. The number of sales, 496, was down 6.2 percent. The North Fork’s median sales price of $453,500 was down 6 percent from the previous September-to-December period, though the number of sales rose by 14.4 percent to 167.’
‘The fall in Hamptons numbers was likely due to many high-end home sales that were rushed to close by the end of 2012 to avoid tax increases in 2013, Herman said.’
‘A separate report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman compared last year’s housing market with 2004. It found that Long Island’s median sale price of $361,000 in 2013 was 6.5 percent lower than the typical price in 2004. The number of sales — 22,145 — was down 14.6 percent compared with 2004.’
You mean government regulations and taxes can effect housing prices?
Who would have thunk it?
This just in:
‘The wealthy took a break from buying mansions in the Hamptons last quarter. The question is whether it signals a broader cool down in the luxury real estate market.’
‘Average sale prices in the Hamptons fell 26 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter last year, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The median sales price fell 15 percent and the number of sales fell 6 percent.’
‘The sudden rise in inventories in the Hamptons suggests there is also a risk of a broader chill in the high end—especially as the stock market starts to level off. Listing inventory jumped a whopping 53 percent in the fourth quarter, and the monthly absorption rate surged to 9.5 months from 5.8 months a year ago.’
Oh dear.
‘East Hampton saw its median price fall year-over-year by a whopping 48% to $1.8 million, the report noted. Although the small number of transactions can skew numbers on the submarket level, Corcoran broker Ernest Cervi noted the Hamptons as a whole saw solid growth, especially in the lower-priced homes and in the North Fork—and he doesn’t see any roadblocks on the horizon.’
“If you look at economic factors like Wall Street,” he said, “there is no reason to think [the market] is going to do anything but continue to grow over time.”
Well Ernie, there is no reason, that you can see. Reading elsewhere about the collapse of retail holiday sales. The stock of companies that do not make money will probably just keep going up and up and up.
There can be a maximum of 85 mansions in the Hamptons. All else is excess.
“Living debt free is like winning the lottery, everyday!”