One Key Reason Homeowners Are Looking To Sell
The Boulder County Business Report in Colorado. “Home prices in Colorado are leaving wage increases in the dust. So is the state’s housing boom setting up for a cool-down in 2014? Ryan McMaken, communications director and economist with Colorado’s Division of Housing, thinks there could be some tapering of home-value appreciation. But as for a bursting bubble, he says that’s not a concern at this point. At the top end, Boulder County had more than 40 homes sales eclipse $2 million in 2013, a leap from just 18 such sales in 2012 according to figures from Legendary Properties broker Scott Franklund.”
“‘If it was a million-dollar home in 2012, they’re going to want a million-five for it now,’ Franklund said. ‘And they’ll probably get it.’”
The Denver Post in Colorado. “Housing markets across Colorado hit the brakes hard in the fourth quarter, according to a report from the Colorado Association of Realtors. Colder weather and the holidays typically cause activity to slow in the final three months of the year. But the rate of deceleration as 2013 ended was enough to raise concerns for 2014. ‘Our biggest challenge is not having enough inventory to meet the needs of all the buyers wanting to be in the market. Many people end up disappointed,’ Duane Duggan, a broker with Re/Max of Boulder, said in a statement.”
“The northern Front Range’s heated housing market appears to have contributed to a another kind of surge: fraud on mortgage applications, according to a new report from Kroll Factual Data. ‘Boulder, Denver and Fort Collins are hot markets and are having more loans made. You are also seeing more instances of application and identity fraud,’ said Michael Mauseth, senior VP of product and channel development at the Loveland company.”
“The Fort Collins-Loveland area showed a 51.4 percent increase in suspicious mortgage activity in the third quarter from the second quarter, the second-highest gain in the nation after Huntsville, Ala. Boulder-Longmont ranked fifth with a 32.3 percent jump, Greeley 11th at 22.4 percent and Denver 25th among metro areas studied at 16 percent.”
The Santa Fe New Mexican. “Santa Fe Realtor Coleen Dearing says homeowners here shouldn’t pay attention to the national stories about double-digit home-price gains. She said many sellers are pulled in by articles that group New Mexico and Santa Fe with the fast-appreciating markets of Denver, Texas and even Phoenix, and they can get discouraged about the market price of their home. ‘They see the national news and think it extrapolates locally,’ she said.”
“Santa Fe is still getting the retirees who want to relocate, but home sales to those coming for a job have stalled. ‘Folks will always keep coming here because it’s a great place to live, but people coming here for jobs — that has been stymied,’ Dearing said.”
“According to David Barker, president of Barker Realty, the median sales price per square foot decreased for the sixth consecutive year. The time on market has dropped to an average of 170 days. That’s a 21 percent decrease from 2012 (212 days) and 40 percent below the 289 days in 2011. But the steady market also is bringing more sellers, and some of them are banks and lenders looking to unload distressed and foreclosed properties. The fourth quarter of 2013, for instance, saw the inventory of homes for sale increase 7.7 percent to 1,923.”
The Arizona Daily Star. “Tucson’s residential real-estate market improved by most measures in 2013, with gains in home sales and prices. But the market is still far from its pre-recession boom, or even what’s considered a normal market, and industry experts see only gradual improvement in 2014 as foreclosures continue to weigh heavily on the market.”
“‘We have largely recovered in our volumes in the resale market and right now it’s kind of just a matter of absorbing those foreclosures,’ said Ginger Kneup, owner of Bright Future Real Estate Research in Sahuarita. ‘We look at the appreciation not being as much as we would like it to be, but the progress is kind of underlying that. There’s an undercurrent of weeding through these foreclosures, and we can’t really move things forward until that’s done.’”
“Investors are finding it harder to fix-and-flip foreclosure homes, said Kimberly Clifton, president of the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. ‘There have always been foreclosure and agents that specialized in foreclosures, but now instead of three or four guys down at the courthouse steps, now there’s 30,’ she said. ‘Everyone wants to make a quick buck and the problem right now is, especially in the investor market, there are fewer and fewer homes that are selling with a high margin, which is a good thing for the consumer, quite honestly.’”
The Arizona Republic. “The number of houses for sale in metro Phoenix has climbed almost 40 percent in the past year. With many more properties from which to choose, the market is tilting away from sellers toward people looking to buy. The entire region can’t yet be called a buyer’s market, but certain areas, including the northwest Valley and Pinal County, have enough houses listed for sale to exceed demand. The nearly 72 percent increase in home prices since August 2011, to $199,000 from $116,000, is one key reason more homeowners are looking to sell.”
“The number of listings is expected to keep climbing in the Phoenix area. With the past year’s price increases, more owners can sell for a profit. And more houses for sale will swing the market in buyers’ favor. ‘It won’t be long before supply will exceed demand,’ said Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.”
“Sellers, who have seen many properties sell within 30 days over the past year, may have to bide their time before they get an offer. Bobby Lieb, an agent with HomeSmart, said people now are taking more time and want to see more properties before deciding on a house. ‘There’s not the urgency among buyers there was last year,’ he said. ‘Buyers now typically want to see 20 to 30 houses and want a few weeks to make a decision.’”
“The number of listings is expected to keep climbing in the Phoenix area. With the past year’s price increases, more owners can sell for a profit. And more houses for sale will swing the market in buyers’ favor. ‘It won’t be long before supply will exceed demand,’… ‘There’s not the urgency among buyers there was last year,’ he said. ‘Buyers now typically want to see 20 to 30 houses and want a few weeks to make a decision.’”
Sounds like inventory may be returning to the Phoenix area market. Any chance of a similar development any time soon in coastal Cali? (So far I’m not seeing it…)
From what I read here it seems like Cali is 6 months to a year behind where we are. I think the foreclosures hit earlier here and the flippers returned earlier also.
I see local evidence that flipper-landlords are fixing their places up to sell, including in our own yard! We are girding for moving out at the end of this year after a decade of San Diego rentership.
Of course the wild card is the simmering financial crisis in emerging markets. If it goes sufficiently hot to spill over into the U.S. economy, all bets are off on future home price gains around here.
Another wild card is the current severe California drought…if it continues (God forbid) it will no doubt have a major effect on RE, employment, etc…..
You’ll be building a whole lot of de-sal plants and pipelines. ALOT of it.
The drought is bad, real bad. But they (politicians) seem to be ignoring it. Wells running dry in Paso Robles wine country. Water tables have dropped 100′ in the last 15 yrs since all the new wineries. They put in the solar farms just in time to run the de-sal plants. No more golf courses, pools and green lawns in the desert (think Baja).
That could be why Housing Prices In Paso Robles, CA Fell 47% Year over Year
http://www.movoto.com/paso-robles-ca/market-trends/
“But they (politicians) seem to be ignoring it.”
Nice try.
Gov. Jerry Brown declares drought emergency in California
By Anthony York
January 17, 2014, 9:24 a.m.
- The California drought as seen from the edge of space [Photos] Photos: Drought seen from edge of space
- California areas brace for water rationing as reservoir levels fall California areas brace for water rationing as reservoir levels fall
- New Mexico’s drought threatens the flow of a culture New Mexico’s drought threatens the flow of a culture
SAN FRANCISCO — Amid California’s driest year on record, Gov. Jerry Brown on Friday officially declared a drought emergency in the state.
Speaking at a San Francisco news conference, Brown also called on “all citizens” to cut back “at least 20% of their water use.” He was flanked by charts and photos showing the state’s anemic precipitation and snowpack.
“We ought to be ready for a long, continued, persistent effort to restrain our water use,” Brown said, adding that conservation efforts would be “voluntary.”
…
the sample size is too small.
what did Twain say about stats?
We’ve already discussed that issue DebtDonkey.
We are girding for moving out at the end of this year after a decade of San Diego rentership.”
you going buy or leave the area?
Or try to rent something else?
I thought your landlord bought in 2006 and was underwater. Can they afford to sell and bring money to the table?
Can you?
“…you going buy or leave the area?”
I have a job I like and we have kids in local public schools we like, so barring drastic and unforeseeable changes, we will either stay put or relocate nearby.
“We are girding for moving out at the end of this year after a decade of San Diego rentership.”
Stylish winter clothing here!
http://www.llbean.com/
“Santa Fe is still getting the retirees who want to relocate, but home sales to those coming for a job have stalled.
…
According to David Barker, president of Barker Realty, the median sales price per square foot decreased for the sixth consecutive year.
…the steady market also is bringing more sellers, and some of them are banks and lenders looking to unload distressed and foreclosed properties. The fourth quarter of 2013, for instance, saw the inventory of homes for sale increase 7.7 percent to 1,923.”
Dearth of young buyers with jobs moving into the area. CHECK
Steadily declining median sales price per square foot. CHECK
Rapidly rising inventory of homes for sale. CHECK
It sure is different there in Santa Fe!
SF has no jobs, never has. SF is different as $$ from NY and LA keeps it afloat.
‘Folks will always keep coming here because it’s a great place to live, but people coming here for jobs — that has been stymied,’ Dearing said.”
So you’re saying the jobs are there but you just can’t get people to move for them? Hmmm…or…wait…
“they’re going to want a million-five for it now”
For some reason this made me think of the scene in Hannibal where Ray Liotta is bouncing a tennis ball on his racquet as he barks into the telephone “five hundred thousand dollars”
“According to David Barker, president of Barker Realty, the median sales price per square foot decreased for the sixth consecutive year.
That’s right.
Do you really think you’re founded in reality when you put a $100+/square foot price on a house when the cost to build(lot, labor, materials and profit) tops out at $55/square foot?
Duane Duggan, a broker with Re/Max of Boulder, said in a statement.”
When you think remax or realtor, remind yourself of this;
http://bp3.blogger.com/_KMlHTyq8qsM/RqOVxNFaUdI/AAAAAAAAAO4/YGk2QP3wmwE/s1600-h/remax+sign.jpg
Everybody wants to live in Boulder.
I’ll say.
You better believe it Potsy.
Speaking of junkies, NPR just aired a blurb about the heroin problem in Dutchess County, NY.
We have Peyton, we have legal weed, and we have 300 days of sunshine a year.
You have a bunch of junkies nodding out in their $50/square foot houses in Bumf*ckville in the Hudson River Valley commutable to nowhere.
Are you angry today Potsy?
You’re just jealous of all the equity Peyton is throwing me.
Peyote too?
You been huffing jenkem for breakfast again?
Everybody wants to live here.
Don’t you know it Potsy!
I have watched several episodes of “Drugs, Inc.” on National Geographic channel. Each episode highlights a different city. Denver was one of them. Very large population of crackheads and junkies. Twenty something year old guys stealing batteries to sell for their next fix, which they happily shot up in front of the camera.
Dutchess County NY isn’t exactly nowhere. That’s where West Point is and that area is generally nice. Some baller types commute to NYC from there on the MetroNorth. Not that I’d want to commute that far, but it’s not unheard-of.
“Twenty something year old guys stealing batteries to sell for their next fix, which they happily shot up in front of the camera.”
+1 And punkz with hacksaws steal vehicle’s catalytic converters, and then sell them on-line.
everybody wants to live here.
the only people who live in the mythical land of 55 / square foot housing are jenkem huffers and obese, tattooed single moms.
‘the mythical land of 55 / square foot housing’
A guy who does some work for me here in Flagstaff is trying his hand at spec house building. He teamed up with another guy (general contractor) who has built hundreds of houses locally. I was at their work site and he showed me around. 3500 square foot house not counting the three car garage. It’s going to be a custom house. And building in Flagstaff is much more expensive than Phoenix; it gets colder, more insulation is required, permits are high, etc. He said they would have $139,000 in it when they were done. It’s not like building a space shuttle.
Ryan McMaken, communications director and economist with Colorado’s Division of Housing, thinks there could be some tapering of home-value appreciation.
Previously, the code language for falling housing prices was “stabilizing”. Now it’s “tapering”.
This is only because Peyton didn’t play yesterday.
After the Denver Broncos win the Souper Bowl next weekend, the exponential upward trajectory of Colorado house prices resumes.
Looking forward to Guacamole Sunday!
I wanna eat whatever Potsy has on his menu.
http://antville.org/static/videos/images/cooking%20with%20potsy.jpg
I believe that the AZ Republic article similar to this one on the front of the real estate section yesterday was titled “Stable”, with a big graphic of scales to represent balance.
They showed the wrong graphic. It should have been a graphic of Stables full of horse hockey to represent the state of the market and the HS being peddled by Stealtards.
“The Fort Collins-Loveland area showed a 51.4 percent increase in suspicious mortgage activity in the third quarter from the second quarter
Where you find realtors and mortgage salesmen, you’ll find fraud.
Watch your wallet around these people and above all else, get out of housing while you still can.
Remember… Housing is a depreciating asset and a loss, always.
always?? my bank account says otherwise.
if you bought in 2003 and sold in 2005 in Calif, you won even if you did not clean for 2 yrs.
Always.
hmmm…
2003 pd $320k
2005 sold $445k
Ill take that “loss” all day!
Your claim is meaningless considering you have no credibility here.
Market Prices For Housing In Alexandria VA Down 15% Year Over Year
http://www.movoto.com/alexandria-va/market-trends/
how many thousands of gov workers are we paying for in housing?
“Ryan McMaken, communications director and economist with Colorado’s Division of Housing,
‘New-home building permits showed overall improvement in 2013, despite inconsistency from month to month. In its latest monthly report, Sahuarita-based Bright Futures Real Estate Research found that, after throwing out the highest and lowest months, the monthly average permit volume was 185, with a total of 2,250.’
‘In 2012, there were 2,040 permits. Bright Future’s Ginger Kneup had forecasted 2,450 for the year, which she said many considered to be too conservative. She said a shortage of preferable lots in high-demand subdivisions was largely behind both the lower total and the volatility that marked the second half of 2013 (permits from August to December numbered, respectively: 209, 127, 197, 118 and 192).’
‘But more choices are coming to market. Since the beginning of September, 16 new subdivisions have opened, bringing with them 760 new lots. Nine more subdivisions totaling 439 lots where permits have been issued are waiting in the wings.’
From the Arizona Star article:
‘While higher inventories usually create a buyer’s market, the market remains uneven, Clifton said.”
“We’re not in a buyer’s or a seller’s market right now,” she said. “There is a good amount of inventory, but it depends on the price range you’re in, or the area you’re looking for. If you’re looking in the northwest, there’s a ton of homes for sale.”
“The housing market future lies in the hands of Millennials. The approach of development with the growing Millennial generation needs to change, said Michael Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at W. P. Carey. Millennials aren’t interested in owning a home compared to his generation, Orr said.”
“Because they desire flexibility, Millennials tend to favor rental homes versus owning a home. Orr said this also could result from Millennials “today’s 20- and early 30-somethings“ dealing with student loan debt and seeing their parents struggle with home ownership.”
“Orr said the Phoenix market doesn’t have to worry about short sales, loan delinquency or foreclosures. The main concerns still involved a weak, but growing supply and weakening demand, decreased cash transactions, and investors and out-of-state buyers losing interest.”
“The number of single-family home sales fell by 23 percent in the midvalley in 2013 compared to 2012, according to data from the Aspen-Glenwood Springs Multiple Listing Service. The dollar volume from those sales fell 25 percent in a year-to-year comparison, the Multiple Listing Service statistics showed.”
“There were 235 single-family-home sales in Basalt, El Jebel, Carbondale and Missouri Heights in 2012, according to the data. That sagged to 180 sales in 2013. The dollar volume dropped from $157.09 million in 2012 to $117.14 million in 2013, the statistics showed.”
“The average sales price slipped 2 percent to $650,772, according to the information provided by the real estate companies.”
“Ted Borchelt, a real estate agent in Basalt with Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty, said segments of the midvalley market are performing well. The residential market under about $800,000 “is on fire,” he said. The market is “soft” between $800,000 and $2 million and still awaiting the recovery for properties priced above $2 million, Borchelt said.”
“Higher prices, along with several other factors, are among the challenges to the recovery of metro Phoenix’s new-home market. The median existing home price in the region is now $178,000, compared with the new-home median price of $301,904, according to RL Brown Reports.”
“The gap isn’t expected to shrink anytime soon, said real-estate analyst RL Brown during his annual housing forecast.”
“Last year, 12,785 new-home permits were issued Valley-wide, up from 11,615 in 2012. But the figure was well below the 14,000 to 16,000 projected earlier last year for 2013.”
“Other factors, including a construction-labor shortage, a lack of available lots in areas popular with buyers and tighter lending guidelines are working to keep the homebuilding market from a robust recovery, he said.”
“It’s certainly true we failed to live up to the optimism of many as we enter 2014, and it’s equally true that at least statistically we appear to have made little progress toward recovery in this housing market,” said Greg Burger, a Brown Reports analyst.”
According to the US Census there were 617,000 SFH permits issued in the US in 2013. This was year six of the biggest slump since records began in 1959. With the exception of 1981 & ‘82 housing starts are at lifetime lows after six years of “recovery”.
“Household Formation Is Cratering“
http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/08/21/2013/household-formation-cratering
“For Jeffrey Gundlach, the U.S. housing recovery isn’t so rosy. The founder of $49 billion investment firm DoubleLine Capital LP is largely avoiding the subprime-mortgage bonds that jumped about 17 percent last year after home prices surged by the most since 2006, deterred by the lengthy process to sell foreclosed houses and the destruction that’s creating.”
“These properties are rotting away,” Gundlach said last week on a conference call with investors, about homes stuck in foreclosure pipelines, adding that it could take six years to resolve defaulted loans made to the least creditworthy borrowers before the real-estate crash.”
“21 percent of foreclosed homes across the U.S. are in limbo, vacated by former owners and not yet seized by lenders, according to data company RealtyTrac. Those residences are a sign of an uneven U.S. recovery, which has left blighted neighborhoods in cities from Los Angeles to Detroit and about 8 million borrowers still owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.”
“The housing market is softer than people think,” Gundlach said, pointing to a slowdown in mortgage refinancing, the time it’s taking to liquidate defaulted loans.”
“A measure of losses on mortgage debt rose last quarter for the first time since 2011, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday. The reversal was driven by an aging pool of loans in the foreclosure process, particularly in states such as Florida and New Jersey which give added legal protections to homeowners against repossessions.”
“About 32 percent of seriously delinquent borrowers, those at least 90 days late, haven’t made a payment in more than four years, up 7 percent from the beginning of 2012, according to Fitch analyst Sean Nelson.”
“These timelines could still increase for another year or so,” Nelson said, leading to even higher losses because of added legal and tax costs, and a greater potential for properties to deteriorate.”
“Loss severities on subprime debt, tied to risky mortgages that inflated the housing bubble, increased to 75.9 percent from 74.1 in the last three months of the year. The severities — a measure of losses suffered on a liquidated loan — peaked at 77.1 percent in early 2012 from 12.8 percent at the end of 2006, during the property boom.”
“You see Case-Shiller price data showing strong markets, and you expect in a certain logical way that these loss severities should be coming down as home values are increasing,” said Gundlach. “Unfortunately, that’s being trumped or neutralized by this rotting away problem.”
The PTB seem to think they can get another massive heroin party going before the effects of the last overdose are fully realized.
“21 percent of foreclosed homes across the U.S. are in limbo, vacated by former owners and not yet seized by lenders, according to data company RealtyTrac. Those residences are a sign of an uneven U.S. recovery, which has left blighted neighborhoods in cities from Los Angeles to Detroit and about 8 million borrowers still owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.”
I can point to several examples in my own neighborhood. One hasn’t been lived in for almost three years.
Have we entered a time machine? The stuff this guy says sounds like what we have been pointing out here for the past decade. Not only does his post suggest the Housing Bubble clock has been turned back, but further, we are frozen in the past.
Taxes, interest, depreciation, all losses.
Remember…. houses are depreciating assets, ALWAYS. They never pay you back.
California Housing Demand Slips 8% YoY; Falls 4 Years In a Row
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-home-value/r_9/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D14%26r%3D9%26el%3D0
Gotta watch those slips trips and falls. They’re life changing in a bad away.
Sacramento CA Housing Demand Craters; Inventory Skyrockets 81%
http://www.movoto.com/sacramento-ca/market-trends/
“Casual dining is in some serious trouble. Americans have been told for decades, in cheery voiceovers, that inexpensive sit-down meals at national chains meant “Eating good in the neighborhood,” where “It’s always Friday.” Every mall or major intersection was given a Chili’s, an Olive Garden or an Applebee’s – sometimes all three.”
“Yet the casual-dining industry has largely worn out its welcome. Customer traffic to these restaurants has declined in nine of the past 13 years, according to retail-research firm Black Box Intelligence.”
I casually dine at home where I don’t have to leave a tip and pay for an overpriced beverage.
I casually do the same. Learning how to cook has enhanced my enjoyment of staying home.
One of my favorite hobbies but does a number on our health and weight.
I like to refine and duplicate “what can’t be done at home”. Right now I’m perfecting my own pizza dough to replicate Bronx pizza…. basically Neopolitan. Requisite materials are a pizza peel, a heat sink(any inert mass…….steel, rock, etc) and Caputo 00 flour. I’m also working out the details of street pizza using bromated flour. It’s an entirely different crust. Both are very good but very different in the same way that wet and dry is different.
One of my main goals in life is to never eat high fu*ktose corn syrup (props to oxide), and to limit my sodium intake. Neither is possible if I dine out at these pathetic excuses for restaurants. I never buy anything from the store which has HFCS, and buy very few processed foods in general due to the presence of both.
Have you seen how much salt those pre flavored rice mixes have? It’s scary. Much better to use a rice cooker, and far cheaper too.
I don’t ever buy that stuff. Flavored rices, pastas, soups, TV dinners, flavored breads, etc.- it’s all LOADED with sodium. I pretty much ignore the entire center of the store. I cook everything from scratch, and only buy sliced bread which is whole grain and HFCS free.
Got Cheetos?
“Yet the casual-dining industry has largely worn out its welcome. Customer traffic to these restaurants has declined in nine of the past 13 years, according to retail-research firm Black Box Intelligence.”
Years of stagnant wages and rising prices have taken their toll. Plus the food is greasy, salty and mediocre. The winners are the upper end fast food places: Noodles, Chipotle, Panera, etc. Why? Because it costs half as much.
Chipote burrito $9
Chilis burger and fries $9
yuk to both!
Good catch! I meant to post on that story earlier but didn’t get that far.
Anyways, it doesn’t sound like Applebee’s wait times are going up any time soon…
This is rich:
‘Housing experts are warning lawmakers new guidelines designed to protect consumers from risky mortgages will keep potential buyers from getting loans at all. Home owners and banking industry experts say these rules just don’t leave lenders enough wiggle room for special circumstances.’
‘Eight months ago Kristen Robinson purchased her first home in Charlotte, North Carolina. Now she worries new mortgage rules created in response to the 2008 housing crisis will mean people like herself won’t qualify for a loan.’
‘She is among hundreds of new homeowners protesting in Washington Tuesday and filling a Congressional hearing examining the changes.’
‘The new rules require lenders to verify a buyer can repay their mortgage or possibly face legal liability if they don’t.’
OK - “hundreds of new homeowners protesting in Washington” - Who organized this Hundreds of FB March?
Why are they protesting? They got locked in! They are no longer priced out forever. Could it be that they are concerned no one will be there to buy their crap-shack when the time comes?
That is fawken rich indeed.
Hey Kristen Robinson…. How much cash are they putting in your empty pockets for your victim chant?
The reporter seems a bit confused. Just a few days earlier he wrote this:
“Consumer groups applaud the new rule. Carrie Johnson, senior policy counsel at the Center for Responsible Lending, said the rule “balances borrower protection with access to credit.”
The people who sell homes also support it.
“I think they got most of it right,” said Chris Polychron, president-elect of the National Association of Realtors.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau points out that more than 90 percent of the loans approved these days would qualify as QM loans, so the bureau does not see why its new rules would have a significant impact.
Real estate expert Ilyce Glink, author of the book Buy, Close, Move In, believes some people - those who can’t afford it - will find it harder to get a mortgage. But, as she points out, that’s the way underwriting is supposed to work.
Higher standards should result in fewer mortgage defaults, which is good for both those who buy a home and the overall economy.”
http://www.koaa.com/news/new-mortgage-rules-arrive/
Is the same QRM rule that started out as “mortgage must be 20% down or you have to eat 5% of it?” Now, it’s “If you offer bubble mortgage the strawberry picker might able to sue.” Geez what a water-down.
My theory is that the gov realizes that private equity wants to buy it all and make the 99% proles rent slums. That’s where our market forces will take us. Short of banning private equity from buying entirely, the gov desperately wants to keep J6P in the market by offering loans and staving off down payments.
‘private equity wants to buy it all’
Yeah, that’s why the last couple of IPO’s were cancelled and no more are coming. The ones that did launch lost money for the stock buyers. I’ve lost count of the markets where UHS say “the investors are pulling out”.
Here’s an idea; test your theory, load up on this stock:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=sby
It’s cheap and getting cheaper by the minute.
“My theory is that the gov realizes that private equity wants to buy it all and make the 99% proles rent slums.”
You’re stuck in this line of thought, but you’re mistaken. They wanted the easy money, and that easy money is gone. Many are getting burned as Ben highlighted above. Believing private equity is going to corner the market on SFR’s and crowd out end users over the long term is no different than believing in “buy now or be priced out forever.” You are a brilliant gal, I really enjoy a lot of your posts, but I do think your house purchase is clouding your judgment. I think it’s great you are happy with your house purchase, and I certainly don’t begrudge you for it, but you can’t see the forest for the trees.
Impulsive actions can lead to logic bending.
“but I do think your house purchase is clouding your judgment.”
Ya think?
‘Housing experts are warning lawmakers new guidelines designed to protect consumers from risky mortgages will keep potential buyers from getting loans at all.’
This could be the case for a while, at least until the Echo Bubble prices deflate to normalcy. You can’t very well sustain a bubble without the availability of crazy loans.
In high end areas ( $750k or more) the 850k and up has seen buyers waiting longer to decide. Many do want to see more property avg. 14 viewings and up.
The 750k to 850k buyers pretty much pull the trigger after viewing as little as 5 houses.
Spring tells the tale, new listings and left overs from late winter some reductions will occur ( 3 to 5%), but buyers who are waiting for a major drop, sorry won’t happen.
Foreclosures and short all but gone, and severely underwater can’t put their homes up, they have decided as long as they keep the payments on time they might as well stay, if they couldn’t afford the payments by now, they would be gone.
So what is left is some bargains, but more stable pricing. Buyers who wait risk 5% or more rates this summer, make your best deal folks at these rates and don’t wait, no matter what price category you are in make it happen.
I’ll bet you can’t guess what happens after peak foreclosures!
Peak foreclosures? The key word use to be shadow inventory remember, banks are in the business of loaning money, foreclosures have been around forever.
The housing fraud was a disaster for sure, but new way of during business, loan lending practices and the sure fact underwater people this last year have not defaulted by the droves shows more stable balance , which is good.
A Housing Bubble, is just a code word, to make headlines now, don’t worry no housing bubble exists, just a ebb and flow like the stock market, some housing quarters will be better then others, a normal market is returning.
Investors go back to commercial property, you are done in residential real estate?
Whatever you want to call it, 25 milllion excess, empty and defaulted houses still haven’t been addressed.
shhh…. dont say bubble….
just say “tide”
says the realturd
and when rates get over 5%…..
I think we see a 15-20% drop then flatten out…. this was a dead cat bounce is all
An adjustment to a fraction of construction costs($55/sq ft) regardless of rates.
we covered this already.. IN CA ya cant build for less than $120 psft.
prove me wrong, win a chicken dinner from Applebees.
We prove you wrong 5 days a week.
Remember… we build in all 48 states for $55/sq ft(lot labor materials profit)
“Turkey’s central bank appears set to use its emergency meeting to hike rates and defend the embattled lira, but it isn’t clear whether other emerging markets will follow suit as their currencies face another market spasm. “The classic response if you’re a central bank and your currency is getting hit is to get ahead of the market and overperform,” Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Standard & Poor’s, told CNBC. “The worst case scenario is you’re sort of chasing your tail and the market’s going after you so you’ve got to get out in front.”
“India was forced to adjust last summer,” Gruenwald said. After the Fed first broached the idea of tapering in May, emerging markets convulsed over the May-to-September period, with India and other countries with current account deficits, such as Indonesia, particularly hard-hit. India’s rupee weakened to a record low, with the U.S. dollar fetching nearly 70 rupees in late August.”
“Because of upcoming elections in both India and Indonesia, authorities struggled over that period to get ahead of the market moves, Gruenwald said. “The market did the adjustment for them,” he said.”
“Turkey has certainly taken it on the chin, with the lira falling around 10 percent over the past month to record lows, spurring the country’s central bank to announce an emergency meeting barely a week after its regular one.”
“So far the bank has resisted raising interest rates amid political opposition from Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who faces local and presidential elections in coming months.”
“In this situation, you want to be aggressive. So certainly, large rate hikes at an absolute minimum,” Robert Rennie, global head of forex strategy at Westpac Bank, told CNBC. “You do not want to under-deliver in that situation.”