Bits Bucket for February 6, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Opinion: Is America Inflating Another Housing Bubble?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfilI57sbvQ
Not bad considering it’s the WSJ. Comments?
Seriously, why do you need a realter if you are buying a house? You find a house you like on the internet, call whatever realter is showing it, go see it and then if the price is right, agree to buy.
What does a realter do for the buyer? Do they know about the proper forms to fill out? Isn’t there some cheap Nolo Press book that could give that same info for about 50 bucks?
The Nolo book is $24. That’s what we are using and doing. I had my banker find a copy of the California CAR standard sales contract. It’s our first home purchase and I think we’re fine doing all the legwork. People are surprised we represent ourselves. Already, though, we had one seller say he’s perfectly happy to shave 3% due to the absent commission.
In theory you are correct–the seller should benefit slightly because you’re shaving off a 3% cost (or 1.5-2% with a discount realtor). So in theory you’d be willing to pay _slightly_ more for the house since your trans costs are lower.
The advantages of removing a barrier of communication are great as well. You don’t rely on your realtor to relay offers. And since you’re not a realtor, you are more motivated to make sure the seller knows your offer ASAP and knows how you came up with the number. No middlemen.
Good for you. Remember that you pay RE taxes on that Realtor fee for the rest of your life!
“You find a house you like on the internet,”
And disruptive technology wipes out another class of income. The only reason they aren’t extinct yet is their influence on Washington.
My boss calls me yesterday and say we have to do more but with no more people. If we have to hire more people to get the work done they will just move the job over seas. We both laughed but it’s sad really.
We need to start having taxes and fees for companies who outsource production, labor, and everything else. It’s time.
Yes, it’s time to reinstate the tariff. They worked great for hundreds of years in this country, so they should work now.
Janet I agree in principle, but would offer the caveat that they have the potential to have grave unanticipated negative side effects. Proceed with caution.
“they have the potential to have grave unanticipated negative side effects.”
Not potential, they will. Tariffs are not a simple, pain free solution. Given how dire things are becoming, I suspect they will be worth the cost.
If they can move the job overseas, then they will. They can get more work out of six overworked Chinese than two overworked Americans.
Wow, that AEI guy actually defined what “rent” really means (pure economic value of a property). That’s amazing when you compare it to the shorthand most of the MSM uses.
The graph of CPI vs nominal housing price is interesting as well.
This is about as decent of a reporting job as we can expect these days…
The first graph that they flashed on the screen is pretty telling. Over the long term since 1983, house prices (blue line) rose with inflation, and rents (red line) tracked closely. House prices very clearly rose and then fell during the housing bubble. But during the pop, prices did NOT fall back all the way back to pre-bubble prices. The blue line falls only to the level of where the long term inflation trend would have been if there had been no bubble at all. The “would have been” line is still tracked by the red rent line. Twice, the house price line touches the long-term trend before it takes off again into the current bubblet. The second touch, at long term prices and between bubbles, is when I bought.
No Mz. Craterton…. Prices exceeded inflation. That’s why the graphs show what the do. You bought within a 5% range of the peak of the global credit bubble.
“between bubbles, is when I bought…”
Technical traders have a rather amusing term for the double top formation. It might comfort that you bought in the sweet bosom of the biggest credit expansion in history, but it won’t make sense if there is a corresponding credit contraction.
Tracking inflation…Ha!
This is pretty consistent with my understanding. That post crash, we generally hit the inflation adjusted trough from prior cycles, but quickly bounced back up off that level for two main reasons: cheap finance, and lack of development that would take the pressure off.
This is also what the Case Shiller long-term data shows.
Case Shiller excludes foreclosures, defaults and short sales.
From the S&P PDF on Methodology for the Case Shiller Index:
Page 17 of the PDF
“The most typical types of non-arms-length transactions are property transfers between family members and repossessions of properties by mortgage lenders at the beginning of foreclosure proceedings. Subsequent sales by mortgage lenders of foreclosed properties are included in repeat sale pairs, because they are arms-length transactions.”
Page 18 of the PDF
“usually less than 5% of non-duplicate transaction records are identified as non-arms-length and are removed as possible pairing candidates.”
So, they don’t count lender repossessions (which is not an arms-length transaction), but they do count sales from lenders to the open market after a foreclosure. The excluded transactions represent less than 5% of the sale pairs.
They do not reference excluding short-sales in their 41-page detail on methodology. A short sale is simply a property where the bank has agreed to take less than the loan amount to release the collateral. The properties are marketed, and sold as an arms-length transaction, why would S&P exclude it? Where do you see that they exclude short sales?
And why would they include a default? A default is not a sale–it tells you nothing about the value of the home.
A link to the S&P Methodology PDF download:
WARNING, clicking on this link will start a download of the PDF.
http://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-cs-home-price-indices.pdf?force_download=true
Alternatively, if you go here:
http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
You can see a little teal box that says “Methodology”, you can download the PDF from here if you are more comfortable.
That’s for proving my point.
Barn door left open
All of the horses are gone
Hurry, shut the door
“Housing depreciates rapidly. Your losses on housing are magnified tremendously when you finance.”
Precisely. Just ask the millions of suckers who bought a house 1998 to current. They’re all underwater and have sustained massive losses.
you made a nice profit if you sold in 2004 or 2005.
Houses are never “profitable”. They’re an expense(loss) every single day of your life until you’re in your grave.
spending my equity today while you look for a new rental.
homes appreciate with proper maintenance!!!!!
No $hithousePoet…. Houses track inflation. The losses are a result of depreciation.
Got intensive purposes?
renter your back peddling.
No. Houses depreciate ALWAYS. And depreciation results in loss ALWAYS.
“spending my equity today”
Oh, that’s sheer brilliance. That’s like paying the minimum on a credit card while charging the same amount or more each month. Staggering level of financial stupidity.
Janet, azdude is just baiting and it’s not intended for you.
Stay out of it.
“Janet, azdude is just baiting and it’s not intended for you.”
Oh, I know it’s not intended for me, and that he’s trolling, but he actually believes the stuff he writes.
“…but he actually believes the stuff he writes.”
Read his other posts. He doesn’t. Just pure baiting.
And you believe it too.
Same with Pets.com in December 1999.
Housing is collapsing around you as we speak. In 6 months you will pay 10+ percent less than now.
you were given the opportunity to take profits but you got greedy and held to long like most other people didnt you?
What? Me? I didn’t lose anything. I didn’t have 2 nickels to rub together back then.
But I was in SoCal in 04-05 and no one was selling unless they were moving up to even greater losses. Best financial decision I ever made was not buying in 04-05 when the pressure was super heavy to do so. Every penny would have been 10 teardrops, at least.
well your were talking about pets.com stock.
yeah be thankful you didn’t buy in s cal in the ht of the last bubble.
That’s a different market down there. million dollars for track homes?
you can buy 10 homes for the price of 1 in s cal. a lot of hype.
Thanks for the discussion on corporate stock yesterday, dude.
no problem I had a good time trying to expose the scam.
home depot had revenues of 90 billion in 2006 and 74 today.
microsoft:
“The new buyback program comes after the expiration of a previous $40 billion program that is set to expire on September 2013. In other words, today’s news is a confirmation of Microsoft’s commitment to invest its cash in its own stock.”
The stock was dead money for a decade and now there buying it back when its higher?
Talk about price manipulation.
“now there buying it back”
Oopsie, careful or I’ll nominate you for another malaprop award!
All kidding aside, though, ebay is doing the same thing, it has a stock repurchase program in the works.
A lot of the companies in the S&P 500 are doing it cause they cant be profitable in the phony recovery.
Common shareholders are last in line to creditors in a bankruptcy. so basically everyone else gets paid but shareholders.
Radio shack, shld and jcpennies are sucking off the equity in the company before they go bankrupt.
Everyone says the company is looking out for the shareholders,BS. The company is always looking out for insiders, always!!!!
They are buying back their own stock because of cheap credit. They cannot see through the low interest rates to the “ocean of deflation”.
yep that is part of it. they are borrowing money to buyback shares.
Dummy question. Is buying your own stock a pre-earnings company expense and therefore not taxable? Hope not.
“Curious why there is a sense that this no real corporate growth in the US? Because companies are simply not investing in growth, and are instead all engaging in cheap balance sheet arbitrage which makes corporate equities appear richer. The problem is that the debt remains, and once rates finally do go up…”
Yes. I recently read an article that discussed while everyone is talking about how much cash corporate America has on its balance sheets, no one is considering the debt. When you look at the ratio between the two they are no better off than they were just before the crash.
“There has been much speculation in the recent past over what the bottom-line impact of surging stock buyback activity has been on the overall S&P earnings: after all, by removing shares from circulation, the denominator in “per share” calculation gets smaller and smaller with every incremental buyback. Courtesy of JPM we finally have a definitive answer to this long-running question. Of the change in S&P TTM operating earnings between Q3 2011 and the just completed Q1 2013, a stunning 60% or $2.20, of all “gains” of $3.70 have been the result of buybacks. The remainder: a tiny $1.50 is due to actual organic growth. This means that nearly 60% of the bridge between the LTM operating earnings of $94.60 as of Q3 2011 to $98.30 at Q1 2013 has come from corporate management teams engaging in shareholder friendly activity.”
“shareholder friendly activity”
Actually it is rape. It is Executive Stock Option friendly activity. Funded by the Fed with your Dollars.
OK, they aren’t really “your” dollars anymore.
you made a nice profit if you sold in 2004 or 2005.”
2006 worked also.
And a loss the other 247 years
RAL, this post is perfect. I wish I could pin this to my Pinterest account. Then you wouldn’t have to repeat it 365 days/year.
Map of the day…
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pckQkl6bLz0/UuwU-OYly-I/AAAAAAAAA-w/c-4QA9DajU4/s1600/20140201_USM980_0.png
(Mexican origin by county for the entire u.s.)
Looks like they succeeded in taking back their land, it just took them a few decades of “peaceful invasion”.
Spanish is a prison that keeps them trapped in poverty in this country.
racis
Not if it’s a choice. Which it very much is. Doesn’t take much to punch the remote from Univision to PBS Kids.
Coke should have made their commercial entirely in a very obscure or made-up language, then put a graphic at the end saying: Imagine A World Where You Don’t Understand Even The Commercials, Learn Forever.
Doesn’t take much to punch the remote from Univision to PBS Kids.
I wonder how many kids watch “Plaza Sesamo” on Univision instead of Sesame Street. I’ll bet that its more than a few.
Coke should have made their commercial entirely in a very obscure or made-up language
They could have done it in Esperanto.
I wonder what was the purpose of the commercial? To get immigrant minorities to switch to Coca-Cola? Would those people be even watching the Souperbowl instead? Wouldn’t they be watching “futbol” on another channel?
Don’t they already drink Coca-Cola, with the real sugar?
I know someone in the Southwest who tried to convince a Daughter of Aztlan to at least turn on English TV for her kids. The Daughter of A wouldn’t even do that.
Speaking of multiculturalism and sh*tlibbery in education, this piece aired on
ColoradoCommunist Public Radio this morning:“This method is called culturally-responsive teaching and is comprised of four elements: Building relationships, promoting resilience and making lessons rigorous and relevant.”
http://www.cpr.org/news/story/how-one-denver-teacher-uses-4-rs-connect-kids-color
Everybody gets a trophy, to not give everybody a trophy is racist
Would those people be even watching the Souperbowl instead?
The Mexican guys that I know love American Football. Huge Broncos fans. But they’re middle aged and have been in the USA for quite a while now.
The Mexican guys that I know love American Football. Huge Broncos fans. But they’re middle aged and have been in the USA for quite a while now.
They’re probably Chicanos. I’ve never met an illegal who can understand, let alone like, American Football. He can always tell you who’s on the Mexican national futbol team, however. Their kids will grow up being Broncos fans, but they’re Chicanos, not Mexicans.
And let me tell you, south of the Rio Bravo* Chicanos are considered Gringos, not Mexicans.
*That’s what the Rio Grande is called in Mexico.
Oh, are they called Chicanos now? I was once derided for referring to a Mexican as a Hispanic. The correct term was supposed to be “Latino”. I guess it changed again.
All Southern California counties except Orange and San Diego are 40+.
For all the shitlib news stories about diversity, it’s pretty funny that the northeast corridor is the whitest swath of America and has the most people who measure up to the 1950s image of Americans. If you ignore what shitlibs say (the PC stuff) and look at how they live their lives, it’s pretty funny — they are the “mom and apple pie” types.
To be fair, that map only lists Mexican origin from the Census. The “guest workers” in the Mid-Atlantic are more Central American in origin, and how many of them would be captured in the Census?
The northeast corridor, and New England in particular, is much whiter than the south or west, oxy. Maine FTW.
You can comb the census if you want. I’ve done it before, don’t have time to walk you through it today. While you’re there, look at HS grad rates, literacy rates, divorce rates, etc. Mom & apple pie is places like Bucks or Montgomery County PA or Morris County NJ.
To quote the Lumineers:
I stood alone upon the platform in the vain,
The Puerto Ricans they were playing me salsa in the rain,
With open doors and manual locks,
In Fast food parking lots
I headed West I was a man on the move,
New York had lied to me, I needed the truth…
‘much whiter than the south or west, oxy. Maine FTW. You can comb the census if you want. I’ve done it before…While you’re there, look at HS grad rates, literacy rates, divorce rates, etc.’
Wow, do you entertain at parties?
Indeed he does!
http://www.biography.com/imported/images/Biography/Images/Galleries/Liberace/liberace-2-sized.jpg
Ben, you don’t think it’s interesting that the places that are liberal strongholds and full of “diversity” PC talk are actually less diverse and less in touch with the realities of modern America?
“do you entertain at parties?”
Ben, yes he does. I posted that article about Paddles NYC some time ago.
Apparently the thing about Maine being so white is pretty well understood:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-nebraska-so-boring-map-2014-1
(#1 search results for “Why is Maine so ______?” is “white”.)
‘you don’t think it’s interesting that the places that are liberal strongholds and full of “diversity” PC talk are actually…’
No. I don’t even think of things like that. This is part of the idea that one can understand the world by slicing and dicing up the population; white, black, poor, southern, western, liberal, sexual preferences, skinny, how you comb your hair. Pigeon holes among pigeon holes. I prefer to view people as individuals.
Occasionally to make sense of the world and of policies, it helps to look at the census data and also look at who political messages target, who they are trying to (mis)lead, and how they shape the discussion.
It’s easy to me to think about why a person in Millburn NJ could profess PC sentiments and support those policies while he personally doesn’t have to directly experience any downside. Immigrants and poor people can’t afford to live anywhere near him/her. Conversely, it makes a lot of sense that the areas of the country with poorly funded schools and infrastructure, poor job opportunities, and lots of immigrants are bombarded with messages about how they are the “real America” and so forth. It’s to distract them from the reality of the situation. In the south, people think that immigrants are THE PROBLEM. The reality is, the GOP sold them out long ago (only pretends to care) and corporate America loves immigrants because it depresses wages and brings new consumers.
‘the GOP sold them out long ago (only pretends to care) and corporate America loves immigrants’
The only reason amnesty isn’t law right now is because the tea party politicians stopped it.
‘In the south, people think that immigrants are THE PROBLEM.’
Open borders are incompatible with a welfare state. Especially a welfare state with high unemployment, high house prices/rents and stagnant wages.
Careful Joe, you are sounding more and more like me. Of course, I sounded like the “old” you when I was in college so maybe it is a natural progression.
Open borders are incompatible with a welfare state. Especially a welfare state with high unemployment, high house prices/rents and stagnant wages.
Exactly. But it creates the paradox that libertarians face. If we did not have the welfare state immigrants would not impose any cost on society. You could justify open borders. However, the people that would flood into the country would then vote for the welfare state because they would see the disparity of wealth between them and others. California is supported by whites and Asians in a few high tech areas of the state and their taxes go to support areas with large numbers of illegal Hispanics. If this situation is the future of the U.S. the nation has no future.
‘people that would flood into the country would then vote for the welfare state’
If I were to move to Mexico, I doubt they would let me vote.
“If this situation … the nation has no future”
There is no “if”, this is reality. And there is no future unless you’re a 0.1%er, or employed as one of their fluffers like Pantie Joe.
As we have correctly predicted before, within a few decades, less than 15% of the USA population will enjoy what could be considered a middle class lifestyle.
Welcome to the recoveryless recovery.
The future belongs to Lucky Ducky
If I were to move to Mexico, I doubt they would let me vote.
Mexico would not. However, they do not have automatic citizenship for the children of people that just happen to be in the country.
Open borders are incompatible with a welfare state. Especially a welfare state with high unemployment, high house prices/rents and stagnant wages.
————————
So you view people as individuals as long as they are first born in the US? How can you tell just by looking at them where they were born?
‘So you view people as individuals as long as they are first born in the US?’
What do those two things have to do with each other?
‘How can you tell just by looking at them where they were born?’
I didn’t say I could. But you would think that if the government has time to record every phone call, email, text, photograph every mailed envelope, they could take the time to check and see if social security numbers are valid.
“But you would think that if the government has time to record every phone call, email, text, photograph every mailed envelope, they could take the time to check and see if social security numbers are valid.”
I know, right? Same thing about “we’ll never be able to deport____________illegals” (fill in the blank here: is it 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 million? I dunno. But why not, if you’ve got such an awesome surveillance apparatus and military machine?)
The problem is that you’re confusing expensive suburbs like Millburn with the Northeast corridor as a whole. You must know that the two largest cities in the Northeast - NYC and Philly are only around 40% white.
Once you get out of those cities and head into the expensive suburbs, things get very white. However, you would probably see the same thing if you travelled to the expensive suburbs outside Chicago, Atlanta or Dallas.
The one place where I’ve seen a lot of diversity in the suburbs is in California. My cousin grew up in San Jose and he’s got close friends of many different backgrounds.
I prefer to view people as individuals.
This ties into the discussion on “socialists” from last week. IMO, our judgment on people regarding political issues should be viewed the same way (which is to say that such judgment is useless), which is why I posted in response to that thread.
I know very few people who adhere to a strict party agenda or political ideology and separating them into such is a waste of energy.
food stamp useage by county:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/11/28/us/20091128-foodstamps.html?_r=0
But… but… the South is the land of opportunity.
And… umm…. 2Ban knows so many young up-and-comers who are up-and-moving to NC. (Despite low levels of education and high levels of disability and unemployment throughout the South.)
Ha-ha, you don’t get out much, do you? NC is being overrun by refugees from the NE and Mid-Atl.
Remind me to tell you the story of my Boston buddy who decided to attend Chapel Hill because he thought he’d be God’s gift to the Southern belles. He got lots of ass all right, except it was from a distance, on account of they turned theirs backs on him and froze him out most politely, with gracious smiles and soft words. He lasted a year and went screaming back to Boston, where his effete schtick worked much better on the nawthern ladies.
Ever been to Pinehurst, NC? They’re hosting the 2014 U.S. Men’s and Women’s Open there this June.
It’s like an island of literacy and dentistry in the land of Deliverance.
“It’s like an island of literacy and dentistry in the land of Deliverance.”
Funny thing is, NC has a bunch of these “islands of literacy”. Take all these “islands” and pretty soon you’ve got an actual land mass.
Full disclosure: I’m Asheville-bound in the next couple of years. Actually Hendersonville.
You realize Asheville is one of those places that is an island bc of the influx of northerners, right? And the differences between Asheville and the surrounding counties will be blindingly obvious.
Technically I’ll be in Henderson County, not Buncombe, so yeah, I get it. BTW, Asheville has better eating along one city block than all of New Yawk.
(Hyperbole, yes, but you get the idea)
Depends what you consider good eating. I’d consider Brooklyn to have the best of NYC food (bc of the variety and originality), but Manhattan by itself has something like 1/2 the Michelin rated restaurants in the entire U.S. Michelin doesn’t rate indian or African or tapas places at all. I’ve heard Asheville has good food but I would not trade it for Brooklyn (and BTW, Asheville is just as expensive, I bet).
I would never spend a lot of money on “fine dining”. I don’t really eat meat and I enjoy cooking food myself, which makes being served food somewhat less fulfilling.
I was born in NYC, raised in the ‘burbs of Westchester and later Fairfield counties. Never much cared for the city, except for a few things like trips to the Museum of Natural History and the Planetarium. Lincoln Center was OK, too. And I did like the old Plaza Hotel. Beyond that, I thought it was pretty gross. Great French and Japanese restaurants, though. Weird combo, but those were always my fave foods.
Wow, the first few pages read like a who’s who of red states. Wonder how their future voting might shape up if their respective Congresscritters stood up in front of them to announce massive cuts to their social safety net?
Jeff Sessions for President!
“America is not an oligarchy… A Republic must answer to the people…Congressional leaders must forcefully reject the notion, evidently accepted by the president, that a small cadre of CEOs can tailor the nation’s entire immigration policy to suit their narrow interests.”
[Sen. Sessions slams Obama, CEOs on immigration, by Neil Munro, Daily Caller, November 25, 2013]
hear hear
Did Sessions say the same about a small cadre of CEO’s tailoring the nation’s entire banking policy too? I’m sure he would be shocked, shocked to find that in his establishment (your campaign contributions, sir).
Ok, you’ve made the accusation. You bring the proof, because I have no idea.
He may well indeed have had something to say about it, but considering how the MSM buries what doesn’t fit the narrative, I doubt if it was heard. After all, he’s just a Southern white man who doesn’t fit the mold of Jimmuh and HillBilly.
Banking was the fifth largest donor to his campaigns (open secrets), but I don’t know if that’s enough to say he’s “owned.”
wall street journal - house gop cools to immigration overhaul
‘just days after house republican leaders backed legalization for most immigrants in the u.s. illegaly, opponents in the party are making clear they will resist the push, casting fresh doubt on chances for legislative movement on immigration this year.’
You can thank Sessions for that. He held a little symposium for House Repbulicans who were unhappy with the quality of Boehner’s tan.
For what it’s worth, Boehner’s skin tone is a favorite nasty joke topic among libs who like to speculate about the Speaker’s alcohol consumption. To be honest I was quite stunned to hear “son of a barkeeper” in the State of the Union Address, of all places. Honest respect or low-blow dog whistle on the part of the WH staff?
Speculate? Everyone knows that Boehner smokes and drinks bourbon on a daily basis. People also talk about how he golfs a lot and is vain about his appearance. The skin tone thing is about tanning and/or wearing foundation/bronzer, not about his drinking.
I’ll take low-blow dog whistle, Alex!
Yes. A person that likes to give the secret middle finger to everyone he considers an opponent including Hillary when he beat her is not above that.
I don’t like alcoholics. Period.
I don’t like alcoholics. Period
I will drink to that.
Sorry for being a wise Azz, but people like Hemingway, Jack London and Mike Royko I have great respect for and all of them had problems with alcohol.
You can respect their work and still not like them.
True. But my GF once wrote to Mike Royko and he actually responded. I read the letter and he seem like a genuinely likable guy.
“I don’t like alcoholics. Period.”
If I had to choose between an alcoholic and a global progressive, I would choose the alcoholic.
“Map of the day…”
Yep, there’s 40%+ way up north in Grant County, Washington; no Mexicans, no agriculture, no kidding.
I”ll post it again:
“America is not an oligarchy… A Republic must answer to the people…Congressional leaders must forcefully reject the notion, evidently accepted by the president, that a small cadre of CEOs can tailor the nation’s entire immigration policy to suit their narrow interests.”
[Sen. Sessions slams Obama, CEOs on immigration, by Neil Munro, Daily Caller, November 25, 2013]
and now for some real journalism
‘the labyrinthian design of the political network backed by the koch brothers and their fellow conservative donors serves several purposes, but one of the biggest is to ensure the privacy of its financial backers. as we detailed last month, the money flows through a complex maze of tax-exempt groups and limited-liability corporations, creating multiple barriers that shield the identities of the donors. such anonymous contributions should be allowed, charles koch has argued, to protect people from the attacks that he and his brother david and their company have fielded. critics say the kochs and their allies seek to influence elections without accountability.’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/02/05/a-rare-look-inside-the-koch-brothers-political-empire/
You have to hand it to them, this is brilliant:
———-
” the money flows through a complex maze of tax-exempt groups and limited liability corporations, creating multiple barriers that shield the identities of the donors. Such anonymous contributions should be allowed, Charles Koch has argued, to protect people from the attacks that he and his brother David and their company have fielded. Critics say the Kochs and their allies seek to influence elections without accountability.”
———-
Invisible hand of the free market indeed. Thank God we have them to protect “American values” that King Obama and his ilk have ruined.
I am in Boulder/Longmont Colorado with the boss and another employee to meet with other engineers from a different firm for a project I am on. It’s darn cold and I don’t think I am really that important to be pulled away from 60 degree highs in Irvine.
It was minus eleven last night at the Denver airport!
I don’t remember Baltimore that chilly. But it was about as cold in New Jersey.
Friday the high will be 40 here.
Goon, we went to Oscar Blues for dinner in Longmont. The B.B. King burger well done was the best barbecue burger I remember eating.
how long will you be in colorado?
We fly out of Denver Friday night.
When are you bastards coming to the east coast?
never
+1
Boo hoo hoo
Az, I’m thinking there will be a massive movement eastward once the aquifers fail and the snowpack fails to replenish for another coupla years.
Personally, I’m not looking forward to even more crowding and caged rat nastiness.
We may, ALL of us, become great enthusiasts for Upstate New York yet, lol!
After a few months of that you’ll wish for a root canal.
It was minus eleven last night at the Denver airport!
The cold snap is supposed to end by tomorrow. It hasn’t been this cold in years. We had highs in the 60’s in January. Bad luck with the timing of your trip I guess.
The West is suppose to warm up over the next few weeks particularly the Southwest. The East( including Florida) and particularly the Midwest will be colder than average. The thirty year forecast provided by Professor Easterbrook (PDO expert) is a slight fall coming soon and then a yo-yo pattern which will leave us back to where we started. Thus, the pause in GW is going to last for thirty more years.
We will see if Easterbrook is right. Though I suspect if the warming trend continues that you will continue to deny it, even if the coastal flooding predictions come true.
Goon, we went to Oscar Blues for dinner in Longmont.
Interesting, I work just down the street from there. I like the smoked wings (and I don’t even like wings), but other than that there are better places to eat locally :-).
We go where the CEO takes us. He buys. Tonight maybe Buffalo wild wings.
Yeah, I understand. Enjoy the cold :-).
the lucky ducky future that we correctly predicted
‘in the early 1970s, just 6 percent of american men ages 25 to 54 were without jobs. by late 2007, it was 13 percent. in 2009, during the worst of the recession, nearly 20 percent didn’t have jobs.
although the economy is improving and the unemployment rate is falling, 17 percent of working-age men weren’t working in december.’
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304027204579334610097660366.html
I predict a significant number of women will drop out of the workforce after marriage or after having children. Moreso than now: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/watch-out-obamacares-subsidy-cliff-earn-1-more-wages-and-you-could-pay-20000-more-insurance_778743.html
As the article correctly states, tax credits is a stupid way to subsidize healthcare.
Single payer is the way to go. We shouldn’t be combining the tax code with health care. It’s stupid when we allow employers to deduct health benefits paid for employees. And now it’s stupid that we decide whether or not someone gets help with their premiums based on an income-level step function.
It might work in this country, but only if cigarettes cost $20 and a can of coke cost $5. And restrict the type of food that can be purchased with WIC/SNAP.
Call that “statist” if you wish but I think obesity is one of the greatest threats to this country.
Why is Colorado so fit?
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-nebraska-so-boring-map-2014-1
The Pikes Peak Ascent half marathon is just over 6 months away. It’s been so cold and snowy lately I’ve been slacking on my training, being lazy and riding chairlifts uphill instead of snowshoeing uphill in waist deep snow. I will be heading part way up Pikes Peak this weekend, it’s about 13 miles roundtrip to Barr Camp (this is a great year-round training hike, I’ve been up there dozens of times) or 20 miles roundtrip if I make it all the way to the A-Frame shelter.
And restrict the type of food
Riiight. As soon as we can all agree on which type of food should be restricted. Fun fact: the whole low-fat weight loss craze is a very old concept going as far back as about 1970.
Before that, the mantra was “bread and pasta makes you fat.” Before then it didn’t matter because people didn’t get enough period. Now, it’s all a confusion that sits in the gray area somewhere between cheez stix and community supported agriculture. About the only food that everyone agrees is good turns out to be prohibitively expensive and time consuming to cook and prepare. Short of a massive statist shutting down of the Monsanto, Cargill and the Grocery Manufacturers of America (good luck with that), or a massive program of seriously subsidizing good food to the tune of $12-15/day and/or massive Slow Fooding of the bread(!) lines (better luck with that), the land whaling will continue until morale improves.
” a very old concept going as far back as about 1970…Before then it didn’t matter because people didn’t get enough period.
Very old? Ha.
Trust me on this, we had enough food. We didn’t spend our whole days in front of a computer though.
You know, those yellow round face looking things are there for a reason.
By “enough food” I was referring to Depression-era. As it is we’ve gone from barely enough food, to abundant healthy food, to abundant GMO an additive crap in the space of one lifetime. Not to mention genetics. Nearly impossible to run good controls.
It is odd. There are no family stories in my tree of people starving to death in the Depression. I knew many who lived through that period in my youth. No stories of not enough food. So, where do you get this idea?
Strange you should mention that Blue…. My 94 year old father lived through the depression and the only horror story he ever told was how the banks called their notes….. meaning anyone who had a mortgage had to cough up the cash…. including my grandfather. No starvation, no turnip salesmen in downtown Rutland.
“Call that “statist” if you wish but I think obesity is one of the greatest threats to this country.”
Who cares what you think, this is still a free country. Mind your own business.
By the way, cigarettes do not cause obesity and for that matter neither does a can of coke. Laziness and gluttony are the real culprits…Guess it’s harder to create a police state without targeting “evil products”.
There is no reason to a have a cliff where $1 in income causes a $20,000 reduction in subsidies. The WH is the gang that cannot shoot straight. I use to think they were just trying to design this to fail but after seeing the website fiasco, I think they are just as incompetent as the Carter WH.
It’s because they’re using tax policy to handle something that should’ve involve the tax code. Sadly, our health care system has long been entwined with the tax code. Single payer would not have that problem.
The incompetence must be good news. When Obama tries to arrange a Marxist revolution and impose sharia law, he’ll fail miserably.
“When Obama tries to arrange a Marxist revolution and impose sharia law”
Something makes my head want to explode when I see the terms “Marxist” and “sharia” conflated.
“Single payer is the way to go.”
I know a former poster nickpapageorgio used to call polly the GBOT (Government Bot). I think Joey was churned out of the same factory.
Amazing to see a people so willing to surrender to complete government control.
although the economy is improving and the unemployment rate is falling, 17 percent of working-age men weren’t working in december
More then vs. now numbers I’d like to see:
% of men working menial low wage jobs
% of men earning enough so the wife doesn’t have to work.
CNN had a front-page article about just that this morning.
Yesterday we posted a Wall Street Journal article about this event.
Here, the real journalists at the New York Times chime in:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/us/months-later-sniper-attack-at-power-hub-still-a-mystery.html
Why are the real journalists reporting this now? Marching orders from their statist controllers?
It has been nearly a year since the Boston bombing and subsequent unconstitutional manhunt in Watertown, MA. The statists probably have another false flag event up their sleeve, and need to prime the pump to ensure the “correct” public reaction.
And what is the “correct” reaction? Essentially, it is by framing the narrative of the continued erosion of constitutional rights and individual civil liberties so that the conclusion of the false flag event will be met with herds of cheering retards dancing in the streets chanting “USA! USA! USA!”
This is how the statists will win.
The fragility that this event dramatizes is truly frightening.
I like reading Matt Bracken’s fiction writing about different TEOTWAWKI scenarios.
Got 7.62×39?
Some of Bracken’s commenters speculate he’s writing in code, laying out a blueprint.
The NY Observer ran a piece full of comments from NY Times insiders on how their editorial staff (which is rather large) is viewed by the rest of the staffers. And how some of their opinion writers (friedman in particular) is openly laughed at by Times staffers. (Never forget, Friedman’s lifestyle is provided by his wife’s family’s RE empire and he lives in a 10,000 sq ft house in Bethesda but preaches about carbon emissions.)
I think you would enjoy the inside look at the NY Times opinon people. Look at the observer’s page or just google something like “ny observer ny times editorial page friedman”.
Friedman was, is and always will be a first class horse’s hindquarters, you couldn’t have picked a worse shill for globalization. Smug, pompous POS.
Seeing his corpse swinging from a lamppost would send a tingle up my leg
Did I mention I was looking up the word “fatuous” in the dictionary and danged if his picture wasn’t right next to the definition?
That might be an interesting read when I have the time. Do they mention David Brooks? He’s regularly ridiculed all over the internet.
Without reading the Observer article, I could imagine that there would be a lot envy directed at those columnists. Some Times reporters risk their lives in places like Afghanistan or Cairo. Others have written articles that go into great detail describing how our health care system is the most wasteful on the planet. The names of those reporters are not well known. The columnists like Brooks and Friedman, on the other hand, can write their columns by typing up whatever goofy throughts are floating in their heads. They can probably do this at home in their pajamas and email them in.
It gets more into the staffing of the opinion and editorial pages. There are something like 15 staff (not writers, staff) who work on those pages full time, not counting assistants and interns. Yet they are a relatively low-performing part of the paper in terms of stories downloaded, stories emailed, etc. It goes into more depth in the article. It’s worth a read, IMO.
“We know that buybacks are contrarian indicators, occurring at the top (and not the bottom) of the market. Why, we ask, are companies leveraging up now and not 12 months ago, when equity prices were much lower? We conclude that (contrary to what we read), US dividend payments are not enjoying a revival relative to cash flows and that buybacks remain the distribution channel of choice for corporates wishing to boost EPS and limit the effects of option dilution. Indeed, some of the biggest US names have issued debt to pay for buybacks (Home Depot, Microsoft, Amgen, Hewlett Packard, McDonalds, DirectTV, to name but a few) but there are also firms in Europe that have been doing the same (Siemens, Telenet, Adecco). In the current economic climate, you may find this surprising ? we do too! A buyback in this form is not a return to shareholders ? it?s called gearing or balance sheet risk and will come to haunt some firms when the economy enters a downswing.”
I’d be really nervous if a company was borrowing money to buy back now.
I think Citi (or some big bank) looked at companies that retired at least 5% of their outstanding shares over the prior 12 months, and created an index for those stocks. I think they said that over a pretty long period of time, that group of stocks returned 15% annually.
There is a buyback ETF that works with the same principal, Powershares Buyback Acheivers (ticker PKW). If nothing else, they publish their holdings, so you can leverage off of their research to see if you want to own any of the stocks that are buying back their stock at a rapid rate (and you can presumably see whether they are borrowing money, or using cash flow to buy stock back).
In any event, I think investing in that ETF, or those stocks will be part of my long-term plan for my taxable investing…buybacks done well are quite tax efficient.
because the rules are different when you’re a 1%er.
this dude was 16, driving drunk at three times the legal limit, kills four people, seriously injures two of his own passengers, and won’t spend a minute in jail because his defense successfully argues that he suffers from ‘affluenza’ because his parents never taught him responsibility or accountability.
http://www.chron.com/news/texas/article/Judge-orders-no-jail-for-teen-in-fatal-car-wreck-5205754.php
I heard about that. I guess money buys good attorneys and freedom, sad.
At least there are protests on the streets if an oligarch’s son gets away like this in the 3rd world.
Amerikka, it’s worse than 3rd world when it comes to the justice system.
New surveillance technology can track everyone in an area for several hours at a time.
They’re starting to use this in big cities… Philly, Baltimore, L.A. So they’re not talking about monitoring a dozen people, they’re talking hundreds of thousands or more.
————————————–
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/new-surveillance-technology-can-track-everyone-in-an-area-for-several-hours-at-a-time/2014/02/05/82f1556e-876f-11e3-a5bd-844629433ba3_story.html?hpid=z1
“As Americans have grown increasingly comfortable with traditional surveillance cameras, a new, far more powerful generation is being quietly deployed that can track every vehicle and person across an area the size of a small city, for several hours at a time. Although these cameras can’t read license plates or see faces, they provide such a wealth of data that police, businesses and even private individuals can use them to help identify people and track their movements.
Already, the cameras have been flown above major public events such as the Ohio political rally where Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) named Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008, McNutt said. They’ve been flown above Baltimore; Philadelphia; Compton, Calif.; and Dayton in demonstrations for police.”
“As Americans have grown increasingly comfortable with traditional surveillance cameras,”
Another POS MSM lie masquerading as “journalism”. “Urinalism” is more like it.
Americans have grown increasingly comfortable. Not this American.
Dude, it’s the Washington Post, house organ of the statists and second only to the New York Times among the major USA print dailies for its libtard bedwetting.
The Post and the Times only nibbled around the edges of the Snowden story. The UK Guardian (despite being sh*tlib/statist in many other regards) was unrelenting, Glenn Greenwald is the best reporter to appear in any English language print daily within recent memory.
There’s a line in there about the police chief/mayor (I forget which) of Dayton Ohio asking downtown building owners to allow them to install these special cameras high up on their tallest buildings. Some of the cameras can see for miles on clear days. For small towns and cities, this really wouldn’t be that expensive an undertaking. Cameras are getting cheaper and having people watch the cameras are cheaper than hiring police officers. This is a scary trend.
“The Coming Mortgage Delinquency Disaster”
Ruh-roh RentalWatch…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Keith-Jurow-140205-Coming-Mortgage-Delinquency-Disaster.php
Jeebus…
‘For the past four years, I believe that I have been the only real estate analyst who has consistently asserted that this notion of a housing recovery is simply wishful thinking.’
Yes, this is consistent with what I’ve been saying.
People seem to fight me on certain things that I say, while ignoring other things that I say.
As I’ve been saying (for well over a year), to a larger and larger extent, judicial foreclosure states are where the mess of shadow inventory resides.
Do you see where all the noted metros are located?
The first box is all NY (Judicial).
The second box includes FL (Judicial), NJ (Judicial), NV (non-judicial, but became quasi-judicial with some extreme anti-foreclosure laws), IL (Judicial), PA (Judicial), WI (Judicial), MD (Judicial) and OH (Judicial).
My fear, and I’ve said this for a while, is that the Fed is going to keep rates far too low for far too long, because these judicial states are so slow in working through their mess. In the meantime, non-judicial states will have gotten through their mess, and we will see a rebubbling in the non-judicial states–driven by those low rates. I think that this rebubbling could become especially acute in CA, given its supply/demand imbalance (as measured by a number of pieces of data, which I have shared).
Joey,
See page 24 of the enclosed slide deck:
http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/CommunicationCenter/DataReports/MortgageMonitor/201312MortgageMonitor/MortgageMonitorDecember2013.pdf
This shows the state-by state non-current loan rates. The asterisks are the judicial states.
The other thing that I would note in the article. While lots of people miss payments on their mortgages, a much smaller percentage actually don’t catch-up and fall into foreclosure. I wonder how many borrowers received more than 1 pre-foreclosure notice over the period in question?
What would be really nice to see, is how many “pre-foreclosure” notices were sent per quarter from, say 2000-2007. This would at least give a baseline for how many borrowers in that market are typically late payers, and give a sense for how far out of whack we are relative to the normal noise of late payers.
That only works when the foreclosure moratoriums are ignored.
Figments of someone else’s imagination should be ignored.
You’ve got a problem.
Says the guy who continues to quote “data” from an organization whose leadership are convicted felons.
Hedge Funds are jockeying to provide $1 Trillion in Commercial Mortgages.
The best quote is the one about “a snake trying to swallow an elephant”. Haha.
————————–
“Axonic Capital LLC, LibreMax Capital LLC and Saba Capital Management LP are among firms positioning to provide loans as more than $1 trillion in commercial real-estate debt originated before the property crash comes due over the next three years, aiming to bridge the gap for borrowers needing more cash than banks are willing to lend.
“New participants are capitalizing on that void,” said Richard Hill, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, who said he’s surprised by the range of investors entering the market. “The wave of loans coming due is going to create a bottleneck. The image I get is a snake trying to swallow an elephant.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-06/hedge-funds-preparing-for-1-trillion-property-bill-mortgages.html
The estimate that I’ve heard is that 50-65% of these loans are undercapitalized or underwater…in other words, current underwriting standards would not allow these loans to be refinanced without an equity infusion.
There will be lots of recapitalization opportunities coming up…
Natural gas in storage is getting quite low. We will not run out of NG but under $2.50 NG will not be coming back anytime soon.
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Jeebus, that whole natgas thing was one shell game. Now you see it, now you don’t. Get enough rubes hooked in, hooked up and presto! That cheap, clean fuel isn’t so cheap anymore.
LOL, just lol on the folks who went all-in with their toppa the line LG gas appliances. Oh, yeah, they’re gonna pay for themselves! Right in the crapper before they see the first penny of return.
It’s been interesting reading about the situations of the folks in the colder areas where natgas hasn’t been working out so well for them. Nor propane, for that matter. Can’t get it.
On a brighter note, looks like Iceland is the first to bring magma generated geothermal energy on line. Gotta hand it to them.
I knew natgas was going to be a loser when they had to evacuate an entire neighborhood area a little north of me because a couple of curious kids messed with the supply line to the area. And then there was the entire neighborhood that exploded in NorCal. And the one in Indiana that got flattened because one couple had it in for their neighbors.
“Honey, do you smell gas?”
Someone I knew in the Midwest showed me a picture of some Africans who had attempted to tap into and steal natural gas from a pipeline in Nigeria. Short version: skin was black but not because they were African. Eyes wide open.
Me: Please tell me they aren’t alive??!?
Friend: Oh, they’re not.
Me: Don’t you DARE make that your computer wallpaper.
We can laugh at that anecdote, but in the US, as we drift toward idiocracy, similar incidents are in store. I’ve had this argument with people who insist newkyoolar power is just ducky. Fukushima, Chernobyl, anyone? And those are just the most obvious examples. North of us here in Florida they’re decomissioning the Duke Energy nuke plant because of problems.
Technology that’s beyond the capability of a population to control on a consistent basis, and handle with intelligence (like not putting a nuke plant in an earthquake zone, what in the HELL were they thinking?) just shouldn’t be utilized.
I’m a huge fan of national parks, but I’d rather see Yellowstone tapped for geothermal than failed nuke plants and blown gas lines dotting the landscape.
Someone I knew in the Midwest showed me a picture of some Africans who had attempted to tap into and steal natural gas from a pipeline in Nigeria.
Usually it is trying to steal gasoline or crude from pipelines not NG. I cannot say it never happens but I am unaware of an incident involving NG. I don’t know how they would even store it. With gasoline they just take it away in buckets and sell it on the street.
Probably was gasoline. I was a little confused myself on the storage issue when I read the post, but thought to myself, well, maybe.
You know it probably was oil or gasoline. If it were CH4 (g), there probably wouldn’t be anything left of them to take a picture of, which is probably better than what I saw.
I think you’re missing Dan’s point. He’s not saying it’s a loser. Just saying that it’s not going to be _as cheap_ as it’s been the last 2-3 years.
What would you consider better than nat gas for heating a house? Oil? Laughable. Propane? More laughs. Electricity? Umm, have you seen electric rates recently? Plus the taxes and transmission fees…
You could argue that some people will end up losers bc they converted an existing house from something else to nat gas. (Most people living in cities are already on a NG grid so they wouldn’t have to do this.) Now they may not recoup as much money as they thought based on savings. It really depends on your price of converting. But if someone already had a hook up for a gas dryer and an electric dryer an they picked gas, I don’t think that’s crazy.
Well, that’s something I’ll have to grapple with when I move to NC. As an old instructor of mine used to say “Safety First!”. I’d probably cobble together some combo of resources, but gas won’t be one of them. In fact any home on a gas grid will be out for me, period.
“In fact any home on a gas grid will be out for me, period.”
That’s a majority if you’re looking in a city. I must assume you refuse to fly as well.
natural gas is pretty safe. it usually the operators fault in some way. u cant fix stupid.
“That’s a majority if you’re looking in a city. I must assume you refuse to fly as well.”
I’m not looking in a city. Outside of one, yes. And I haven’t flown since 9/11.
“it usually the operators fault in some way. u cant fix stupid.”
That was my point. Natural gas is like guns. Guns don’t kill, people do. Sometimes they use guns.
Natural gas is safe, except for some of the idiots that use it.
I’ll figure something out. A local merchant I know has adapted his truck to run on cooking oil. Maybe there’s a way to adapt a furnace to do the same.
“And I haven’t flown since 9/11.”
Which means I don’t get fingered by the TSA, and that’s just fine by me.
“natural gas is pretty safe”
So safe, they evacuated an area to the north of me just because a couple of kids messed with the line. So safe, that some of the residents had bad physical reactions to the leak and had to go to the hospital.
Yep, natgas is pretty safe. So’s newkyoolar. Thousands of Japanese, alive and dead, will attest to that.
Nat gas is flowing under every city. Rarely are there problems. Stuff happens on occasion with oil and propane too. Maybe you should heat your residence with cats?
Yes, that is my point. On a BTU basis, NG would have to be at around $16 or $17 to equal oil prices.
im getting charged over a buck / therm. and on top of that they tell you what you suppose to use and if you go over that it jumps to like 1.30/ therm. I ration heat and keep the thermostat at 66 and I still have a problem staying within the 2 therm / day limit.
elderly people must be getting hosed.
That’s a crazy price. Maryland lets you pick your gas supplier (BGE still services the pipelines/meters/billing). My gas commodity price is $0.499/therm.
I really think you’re including taxes and fees in your “per therm” price, presumably because your utility chooses to spread out its maintenance costs on a per-unit basis (rather than a flat charge per customer).
I think some of the costs of NG depend on which particular pipeline you’re on, how much investment has been made along your piping corridor, etc. I think Balt benefits from being part of the BOS-WASH corridor. My understanding is most of the NG pipelines run north from areas around New Orleans/Houston. So we’re on the way to NYC, etc.
The stock market is up because they stopped giving poeple federal unemployment benefit extensions?
No, the stock market is up is because the people that control the money in this country want it to be up. There are no free markets anymore just manipulations. Of course, manipulations cannot last forever, but neither can we, thus the dilemma on what we should do. Do you invest in the stock market on the hope the manipulation continues or you do you buy gold on the hope that the manipulation ends? Or do you protect yourself with some PMs and play the manipulation, that is my present strategy. Dangerous game but it may be the only game in town.
its funny you stay have some people believing that the stock market is up because of the recovery.
More “recovery” news:
http://wraltechwire.com/off-with-their-ibm-heads-layoffs-to-begin-feb-26-union-says/13364448/
u should invest in a myra account and help support the revovery.
From a Drudge link on the postal service making a large purchase of ammunition, I guess I better cut back of my criticism of NOAA and NASA on global warming, the gloves are coming off.
UPDATE: Since the publication of this article, the USPS has amended its pre-solicitation, claiming that the ammunition is a “standard purchase” for the Postal Police. This does not explain, however, why the Postal Police was not listed in the original notice if this is standard. As the federal government grows larger, more and more federal agencies such as the Dept. of Education and NOAA are forming and arming their own “law enforcement divisions” with hundreds of thousands spent on full-blown arsenals. Even the EPA has its own SWAT teams conducting raids on peaceful Americans. Expect to see more large-scale firearm and ammunition purchases by these bureaucracies as they become even more militarized.
Rather surprising they they are bidding out for their own ammo. Why not bid out for an entire “protection package” to their friendly neighborhood MIC contractor? I can’t think of anything more tailor-made for a kickback.
Nice to see Agenda 21 making such large strides behind the Green Mask
U.S. sets up ‘climate hubs’ to help rural communities affected by extreme weather
By Faith Karimi, CNN
Wed February 5, 2014
(CNN) — The Obama administration plans to announce Wednesday the creation of seven “climate hubs” to provide information to rural communities facing extreme weather conditions.
The hubs by the U .S. Department of Agriculture will provide scientific knowledge to help farmers, ranchers and landowners battle risks associated with climate change, including drought, floods, pests and fires.
“For generations, America’s farmers, ranchers and forest landowners have innovated and adapted to challenges,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said.
However, he said, rural communities face more complex challenges today because of climate change.
“USDA’s climate hubs are part of our broad commitment to developing the next generation of climate solutions so that our agricultural leaders have the modern technologies and tools they need to adapt and succeed in the face of a changing climate,” Vilsack said.
The hubs will be in Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oregon and New Mexico.
Additional sub-hubs will be set up in various other states, including Michigan and California.
Climate hubs will focus on regional issues, and will equip local communities with knowledge to help them adapt.
“Sub hubs will support the hub within their region and focus on a narrow and unique set of issues relative to what will be going on in the rest of the hub,” the White House said in a statement.
Rural communities have been especially hit by climate change.
In the Midwest, for example, the fire season is 60 days longer than it was three decades ago, the statement said.
In addition to affecting food supply and rural economies, climate change comes with a hefty price tag.
“Drought alone was estimated to cost the U.S. $50 billion from 2011 to 2013. Such risks have implications not only for agricultural producers, but for all Americans,” the statement said.
The hubs are part of a broader commitment by President Barack Obama to make climate change a priority.
Vilsack will introduce the hubs at the White House on Wednesday.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/05/politics/obama-climate-hubs/ - -
Is your portfolio benefiting from the FEAR TRADE?
Got seigniorage creation on steroids?
ft dot com
February 6, 2014 6:39 pm
Why the dollar stays steady as America declines
By Gillian Tett
When stormy skies descend on other countries, investors flee – but when the US suffers, they buy
Last week Nigeria’s central bank announced something that might make American politicians blink. Kingsley Moghalu, the deputy governor, pledged to convert almost a 10th of Nigeria’s $43bn reserves from dollars to the Chinese currency. “Ultimately the renminbi is likely to become a global convertible currency,” he explained, noting that “the future of international economics and trade will shift in large part to business with and by China”.
Only 0.01 per cent of central bank foreign exchange reserves are held in renminbi, compared with 60 per cent in dollars and 25 per cent in euros. But Patrick Zweifel, chief economist at Pictet Asset Management, believes renminbi reserves could reach 30 per cent of the total by 2025, posing a challenge to the dollar’s pre-eminence.
He is not alone. Such forecasts have much to do with China’s rising economic might and the gradual liberalisation of its currency. But they reflect alarm and irritation about America, too. The US current account deficit, rising government debt, the hangover from a financial crisis and political gridlock have prompted economists and investors to warn of a looming dollar decline. Hence the keenness of Nigeria and others to reduce their exposure to the US currency, and escape from being tethered to swings in American policy.
But as Eswar Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund economist, points out in his new book The Dollar Trap , there is a paradox. While common sense would say that these developments should have sparked a dollar crisis, precisely the opposite has occurred.
Against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, the value of the dollar is little changed from 2008. And while the dollar’s role as a reference currency has diminished in recent years (for example, because more oil is being priced in euros), it remains pre-eminent as a store of value. True, the proportion of central bank reserves held in dollars is lower than in 2001. But it has not declined since 2008. Instead, it is the euro whose stature as a reserve currency was diminished by the crisis. Foreigners continue to flood into American assets, buying 60 per cent of all US debt issues since 2008. When stormy skies descend on other countries, investors flee. But when America hits the rocks, they buy. The result, Prof Prasad argues, is “a topsy-turvy Bizarro World where everything seems inverted or backward”.
This is unlikely to change soon. In part that is because America is recovering and the Federal Reserve is tapering its asset purchases, developments that support the dollar’s value. But there is another reason that goes beyond economics: fear. In the past decade emerging market countries have amassed highly rated government bonds as a defence against market turmoil. Regulators have pressurised western banks into doing the same. But there are now few genuinely safe assets. In a world where even US government debt no longer seems risk-free, asset managers have rushed towards the second-best option: a flight to liquidity, not safety.
In that respect, America reigns supreme. Its capital markets are deep and the pool of dollars seems bottomless. Or to put it another way (though Prof Prasad, now an economics professor, does not quite say this) what is happening with the dollar turns the normal rules of economics on their head: it has become ultra-attractive because of bountiful supply, not because supply has been constrained.
…