‘Sellers Race To Market’ On Long Island
The Business News has an update on the housing bubble on Long Island. “January housing prices dipped in Nassau and Suffolk counties, but remain ahead of last year’s numbers. The region’s median closing price was $440,000 in January, down from $443,000 in December, the MLS of Long Island reported.”
“Nassau slipped $2,000 to a median $480,000, while Suffolk dropped $10,000 to $390,000. ‘It’s another indication that the housing market is cooling,’ said Pearl Kamer, chief economist at the Long Island Association.”
“Sellers apparently raced to the market: Housing inventory placed on the MLS in January soared 55 percent to 10,627, up from last January’s 6,823. Currently, 23,470 residential properties are available, up 66 percent from 14,139 a year ago.”
“Suffolk’s 9,825 units represent a 64 percent increase, while Nassau’s inventory spiked 67 percent to 6,689 in twelve months. Christopher Armstrong, MLSLI president, said the region is ‘beginning to see the signs of a balanced market.’”
“Sellers apparently raced to the market: Housing inventory placed on the MLS in January soared 55 percent to 10,627, up from last January’s 6,823.”
Long Islanders’ historical experience with stock market crashes ought to provide good preparation for the race to the housing market exits…
Sellers apparently raced to the market…
Read: Sellers apparently raced to the exits…
… and it’s getting tough for those thousands of sellers to trying to squeeze through that shrinking exit door at once…
What is the website that displays inventory and median home price across the US, by state, and by city?
This is one:
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/
http://www.zillow.com
Although some have complained that the site’s zestimates are too high for blocks they know (as I also found), town trends of these same areas have trended lower. I think too much data is extrapolated from too few transactions and as such one recent (too high $$) sale can throw these zestimate off (frquently to the up side). Taking a whole town into account adds more data to the equation and therefore may give a better indication of trends. Just a guess.
Zillow can’t be any worse than an appraiser. Appraisers appraised everything up to bubbleferic levels so why would I expect them to be more accurate when the descent is just starting? A computer calculation does not feel “pressured” to come up with something acceptable, it just cranks out an emotionless number.
Do any of you remember seeing that old Twilight Zone episode with William Shatner pumping spare change into the diner booth genie to get answers to his pressing life questions? It seems almost as if appraisers, realtors, and sellers are gathered around this genie asking him, “Oh please tell us genie, what is the value of this home?” The answer being, that there is no the in “the value”, value is what exists in between the synapses of people’s brains and any notion of perceived value can be gone in a flash. That applies to stocks and it applies to houses.
Zillow is basically indistinguishable from an appraiser under current market conditions. Both report market values at preposterously high levels compared to what underlying fundamentals would dictate.
“beginning to see signs of a balanced market”? These idiots should be drawn and quartered. As I said, LI is shaping up to be a veritable blood bath. I have my popcorn ready.
It looks LI’s market picked up the last few weeks. I’m still seeing house selling for 35k over the listed price.
True. My sisters house sold on the first day with multiple offers (week before the Super Bowl)
I know we’re all wishing, but doesn’t appear to be over just yet. This thing might run through another year before it is over.
There will always be a market for good houses in good locations - it’s the cookie cutter junk that will sit unsold for long periods of time. I’m an Architect and have seen time and time again where people with the means and a discriminating eye will conduct a transaction regardless of market conditions.
“beginning to see signs of a balanced market”
“reduced price acceleration”
phrase like this are spin control coming out of NAR
Lots of the property value in Suffolk county are tied to the Hamptons which is unfair, because very little of the available inventory is really Hamptons quality properties. Most are old shacks and two bedroom houses that were going for less than $100K seven or eight years ago.
My favorite still is:
single digit appreciation…..
soft landing
test
If history is any guide, I would say it will take 3 to 7 years before a bottom is reached. The property crash in 1930 bottomed in 1934. The 1987 crash didn’t bottom until 1995. Anyway, I wouldn’t be looking for any serious bargains for sometime now.
It is amazing how everyone on Long Island thinks that it is immune from any price drop. People have their heads in the clouds or in the sand Either way it will be a wicked summer. Salivating to pick up some foreclosures in the commercial sector. May take a while but patience pays!