There are many people on this blog who believe we are entering another housing bust and a big drop in values. I submit we are simply still cleaning up the 2007 bust. There are always bumps in the road to busts and recoveries. The stats you see and quote today about increases in foreclosures, drops in prices, etc. Is likely a reverse dead cat bounce. The exuberance gain speed rapidly last year and simply had to slow down. The helium balloon bounced off the ceiling, if you will. The sky is not falling, market normalcy is returning and we will continue with the recovery off the deep bottom. There are signs everywhere of an improving economy. There is only one way to know: make your choices and let it play out over 2014-2015.
If you look at the Shiller data, national home prices approximately hit the inflation-adjusted trough as compared to the prior two housing cycles. The Fed’s ZIRP caused prices to go back up off that cyclical bottom MUCH faster than prior cycles.
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-14 10:30:12
“If you look at the Shiller data, national home prices approximately hit the inflation-adjusted trough as compared to the prior two housing cycles.”
We have looked at it over and over again. Prices never came near the trend line.
“A question for Rental Watch. Do you suppose all these foreclosures came from people that stopped paying their mortgage during this 22 month run up? Or were these loans that have been in default all along and just held up by the CA homeowner bill of rights? Just thinking out loud here.”
‘I submit we are simply still cleaning up the 2007 bust.’
I said long ago that it didn’t matter much if one views what’s going on as the same bubble or a new one. But I can see now that at this phase, understanding the difference of the two scenarios will be important.
I have maintained it’s the same bubble. Prices never fell enough, or for long enough. Greed was not extinguished as it should have been, evidenced by how quickly market participants jumped back into speculation in housing.
How did this happen? We all know the answer; governments and central banks made huge interventions in markets and money supplies. It was a bubble interrupted.
What we are told is that the current situation is not like 2000-pick your year. It can’t be another bubble because it doesn’t look like that time period. But if it’s the same bubble, what we should expect is an unraveling of the manipulations that interrupted the bubble and prevented it from running its course. IMO that more accurately describes what is happening now.
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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-14 08:39:57
“IMO that more accurately describes what is happening now.”
JingleBalls and Amy Hoax know better than you or I.
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-02-14 09:07:04
Whac, please don’t characterize me as “I know better than X or Y”. I was ready to buy a new home in 2005 until I stumbled upon the HBB and learned massive amounts of new information. Ben was a savior to what could have been a big mistake. Waiting to buy an new home until 2008 was very hard for me, and even then, I jumped in too soon. Then, opportunities became available on economically sensible real estate deals in ‘09 & ‘10, so a acted on more.
I do have a fundamental difference with many here (including Ben) of where we are in this stage. In the last sentence I posted, I said:
“There is only one way to know: make your choices and let it play out over 2014-2015.”
Everyone is entitled to their opinion (except HA of course, who just blabbers) and I respect the differences on this blog, which is why I keep coming back. You are an important part of that as well.
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-02-14 09:20:52
Ben says: “It was a bubble interrupted.”
I submit it was a bubble that was cushioned when it fell. Instead of a hard, fast violent drop, it was a prolonged, softened, and less violent drop. It is like the Band-Aid….your mother will slowly peel it off. What you wanted was for dad to say “man-up” and rip it off along with the hair and dead skin cells…but then be over. One way is gentler and probably healthier, the other and the pain is gone in seconds instead of minutes. Either way, the patient recovers……
There will be market direction in early 2014. In the next 90 days we will see what is happening for 2014. I suggest it will be somewhat tepid, just moving along with slight upward momentum. May 14th let’s revisit this Feb 14th post.
After all these years we can’t do better than wait and see? I bring this up because an interesting debate is forming. Rich Toscano recently wrote up a piece that concluded San Diego isn’t in another bubble, but is over-priced. My point is, he’s answering the wrong question.
Almost every facet of this market is couched in semantics, distortion and manipulation. From the first article in the desk clearing post:
‘Barry Bramlett, whose firm compiles the numbers, said the improvement is ‘just an illusion.’ The default rate is still high, he said. ‘It looks like a strong economy,’ he said. ‘It’s not.’
‘Todd Emerson, president of the Atlanta Board of Realtors, said he expects the figures to stay low. As the economy improves and new jobs are created, he said, more people are able to pay their mortgages.’
‘With inventory low, he expects a busy spring home-buying season that rivals the frenzied market of 2013. Emerson said low foreclosure numbers give more people the confidence to list. “It only helps home values,” he said.’
In this instance, someone is clearly lying, or at the very least spinning the facts.
2) Large investor interest in housing. They’re not in it because all of a sudden they wanted to become landlords, because that’s just such a lucrative business. Right? I think they got in it to chase big returns, buying up assets from the government on the cheap (the public was barred in large measure) to sell for a higher price later on.
3) Eventually, as has happened in Britain, more people will be opposed to rising house prices. With the government and central bank heavily influencing much of this, I see then changes which will allow lower prices. On the other hand, politicians love their property taxes.
Bottom line: The market is artificially being held up as of right now.
The PTB are thinking, “We can hold this market as long as it takes.” Can they? It’s unclear to me.
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 07:32:20
I say we are not in “normal” range. The dip in 2008 was a dimple on a really big credit expansion lasting decades. The “trendline” does not start in 2004.
The Fed is pumping 1$Tr a year (that we know about) into the pig. With leverage (there is essentially no reserve requirement) what that adds to the money supply is probably $100Tr. There is good reason that desperate measures are taken to avoid any defaults anywhere in the world. A $Billion default would take $100Billion out of the system. It is too fragile.
The “tallest building in the world” index is sky high. There are over 20 of these beasts finished in just the past 4 or 5 years. They are all but one outside the US. All places that would still be in the 15th century were it not for US consumer debt based spending. Last big crash it was just the Empire State Building.
Simply looking at stats, boots on the ground, observations around me, other prognostications. We are in a recover mode. It may stall, it may be fragile, but we are so much stronger than 2009 it is not even comparable.
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-14 09:27:24
^
Says the debtor who belabors “reproduction costs” but cannot identify what the cost is.
Comment by Carl Morris
2014-02-14 10:49:53
We are in a recover mode. It may stall, it may be fragile, but we are so much stronger than 2009 it is not even comparable.
If we were where we are right now without any Fed intervention and FASB 157 I might believe you. As it is I do not believe you. I believe it’s a house of cards.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-02-14 10:57:29
I believe it’s a house of cards.
It might all be “a house of cards”. (Which is also a good series on Netflix) But you might like this:
First C7 Corvette to pass 200 MPH does it on a Texas toll road
We knew that once Hennessey Performance got its hands on the seventh-generation Chevrolet Corvette Stingray, big things were going to happen. A 200.6-mile-per-hour run on a closed section of Texas’ brand-new State Highway 99, was just a shade bigger than what we were expecting…….. The blistering run was, naturally, caught on video, which we’ve included at the bottom of the page.
The car you see here is fitted with what Hennessey calls the HPE600 package, and includes long-tube headers, ported cylinder heads, high-flow catalytic converters, and an HPE camshaft and engine tune. There’s also a 100-shot of nitrous oxide available from a Nitrous Express kit, just for that little extra bit of punch. The result is 700 horsepower, up from the standard Stingray’s 460 ponies.
Comment by Carl Morris
2014-02-14 11:35:51
Sure, I always like stuff like that. Still a house of cards, though. Didn’t some really cool stuff get made as we headed into the depression?
Hello Fed! Whatcha gonna do now?
1) how about those economic numbers. People can’t get out to spend. Gas sales down and utility costs climbing.
2) air traffic grounded. What does that do for the service industry numbers? Hotels, restaurants?
3) are people snowed in using vacation time for pay now and not spending on vacations this summer?
4) what about all the over time costs for emergency services?
5) what about all the spring floods when the heat wave heads east?
6) where are all those house sales in the snowed in Eastern half of the country?
7) things are coming into play for the perfect economic meltdown!
7) things are coming into play for the perfect economic meltdown!
I don’t know if all those things make a big difference in the big picture.
Part of your list can be considered savings and balance sheet repair (less spending) and part of your list can be considered as adding a stimulus to the economy. (Overtime, and flood response)
Feb. 14, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST 3 things the Fed can’t explain Opinion: No, the Fed doesn’t have a helicopter, why do you ask?
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve puts a lot of stock in its communication skills. A big part of monetary policy is explaining what you’re doing (and plan to do) so participants in the economy can alter their expectations about interest rates, growth and inflation.
… The Fed is not flooding the economy with money.
…
“A big part of monetary policy is explaining what you’re doing (and plan to do) so participants in the economy can alter their expectations about interest rates, growth and inflation.”
Lol. Does anyone here remember how Greenspan used to “explain” what he was up to? He was the guy who took great pride in using language to conceal, not reveal.
When you need cash, there’s nothing like the temptation sitting in your retirement account — that stash of money that becomes all-too-available when you lose or quit your job. But withdrawing those savings can leave a deep scar on your future retirement income, according to a new report.
A hefty 35% of people who left their jobs last year cashed out their retirement savings rather than keeping their money in a tax-qualified retirement account, according to a new study by Fidelity Investments of the 12.5 million participants in the 401(k) plans it administers — and those findings are echoed by previous studies from other sources. (Note that just 806,000, or 6.5%, of that total number of plan participants ended their job in the January through September period studied by Fidelity.)
There’s no doubt that taking the cash is a financial necessity for some people, and it’s not surprising that the practice is more prevalent among those with lower incomes than among those who make more: 50% of those earning $20,000 to $30,000 cashed out in 2013, versus 13% of those earning $100,000 or more, according to Fidelity.
Younger savers are also more prone to the practice: 44% of those aged 20 to 29 cashed out, compared with 26% of those 50 to 59, the report said.
But anyone who doesn’t absolutely need the cash should think long and hard before grabbing that money to spend on stuff now. Generally, you’ll play income taxes and a 10% penalty for pulling out the money early. Plus, your long-term savings will take a hit.
…
I heard all this the last 25 years. Now that I followed all the do’s and did not do the dont’s I no longer worry about losing my job for four or five years.
Fair enough. But if somebody less fortunate, industrious or whatever compared to you had a choice between eating or never touching their 401(K) savings, which would be preferred?
Trulia Inc.’s TRLA -14.63% said its losses widened in the fourth quarter as the online real-estate-listing service’s costs and expenses more than doubled.
Shares slumped more than 11% after hours.
San Francisco-based Trulia provides home listings through the Web and mobile applications, and makes money selling subscriptions and advertisements.
Trulia, which competes with Zillow Inc. (Z), has benefited from a strong increase in mobile traffic. In the latest period, total traffic rose 49% to 35.3 million monthly unique visitors. Mobile monthly unique visitors rose 86% to 14.3 million.
Total subscribers at the end of the period were 59,700.
Overall Trulia reported a loss of $11.1 million, or 30 cents a share, compared with year-earlier loss of $1.6 million, or 6 cents a share. Excluding special items, adjusted earnings were three cents a share compared with a year-ago loss of three cents a share. Revenue more than doubled to $49.7 million.
…
Since most of the buildings in Ordos were never occupied, I guess it’s hard to claim that “nobody could have seen it coming” in this case. Rather, everybody on the planet saw it coming.
A large sculpture in Genghis Khan Square in the Kangbashi New Area of Ordos, Inner Mongolia, Aug. 26, 2012. (Photo/Xinhua)
After the housing market bubble burst in the city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia, which led to the liquidation of many of the city’s residents’ financial assets, people who funded the construction of the city have begun demanding a refund for their money from fundraisers, the Chinese-language Securities Times reports.
“The fundraisers invested the capital in the real-estate market and now the houses are unsellable. We bought a house at 6,000 yuan (US$990) per square meter but now its selling price is 4,300 yuan (US$709) per square meter,” said a resident surnamed Wu, who lives on the west side of the Dongsheng district of Ordos.
Wu added that the developer was his relative so he had invested in the project in cash. His family thought they could make a profit after the houses were resold, but now the money is gone and the developer has pledged them two units, said Wu.
Wu’s experience is common in Ordos, where wealth from the coal mining industry made the city the richest in China in terms of per capita GDP. A lot of people own several houses because fundraisers pawn houses and other assets as they are unable to pay back their debts in cash.
The Cybercrime Economy Bitcoin is under attack
By Jose Pagliery @Jose_Pagliery February 12, 2014: 7:14 PM ET Cyber attackers are exploiting a Bitcoin flaw, knocking major exchanges offline.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Bitcoin is under attack by cybercriminals, bringing down some of the world’s largest Bitcoin exchanges in the process.
Unknown attackers are exploiting a Bitcoin design flaw to record fake transactions, muddying up the Bitcoin system’s public accounting and causing widespread confusion for the centers where people trade them.
The Bitcoin flaw allows these attackers to make a withdrawal from their own account and tamper with the record of that transaction. So they could cash out, but claim they never got the Bitcoins.
Here’s how the Bitcoin glitch is exploited: All Bitcoin transactions are publicly recorded and set in stone every 10 minutes. But that leaves a large window for nefarious activity. In this case, attackers were making real transactions then immediately posting fake ones, confusing the exchanges’ accounting programs.
Computer engineers working on Bitcoin’s core functions say this kind of denial-of-service attack is inexpensive and relatively easy to pull off.
The glitch was first made public in 2011 but has not been addressed by every Bitcoin exchange. Jeff Garzik, one of Bitcoin’s core developers, said some exchanges were getting duped because their software doesn’t account for the flaw. That’s why in the last several days, Bitstamp and Mt.Gox have halted customer withdrawals. Other exchanges have created software programs that avoid the glitch.
The attacks aren’t affecting people’s wallets or the amount of bitcoins held in their personal accounts, according to Bitcoin’s leading advocates. People can still purchase goods with bitcoins, but many are unable to withdraw their money.
…
How would that recent 113K jobs number look w/o seasonal adjustment? I’m thinking the raw data were -3,000,000 or so jobs lost in the most recent period, but that was something I caught on NPR while barely paying attention.
I heard the same thing. That’s about right. Apparently the seasonal firings after the holidays make the raw data show about 3MM job losses from December to January.
Most of the time, when we’re talking about some hot-off-the-press-economic-indicator, we’re talking about a ’seasonally adjusted’ number. It’s basically a number that takes into account what’s normal and expected. “There are patterns that occur in economic data regularly at the same time every year,” says Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University. “Some have to do with the weather, some of them have to do with holidays.”
Economists smooth the patterns out, adjusting the numbers up or down. Take for instance jobs numbers. When Kai Ryssdal says, “the economy added 113,000 jobs last month,” on Marketplace, he’s right … if you’re taking into account the seasonal adjustment.
But if you look at the raw data, the economy dumped nearly 3 million jobs between December and January.
“Seasonal adjustment is this absolutely enormous factor that is taking a minus 3 million number and turning it into a small positive,” says Wright.
…
World investors may be worried about China’s real estate bubble. But only one country surpasses that market’s housing boom, and that’s Brazil.
Whether it’s because of the new mortgage market and low interest loans available to Brazilians earning more money, or just a plain old over-stretched housing bubble, the roof has blown off Brazil’s housing market. Anyone who has bought a home in Brazil is smiling wide with its increased valuation. Anyone trying to buy a home has surely been priced out of a market or two over the last five years.
The sober Bank for International Settlements — the Central Bank of the world’s Central Banks — said this week that over the last five years no market on earth was hotter than Brazilian housing.
In fact, Brazil home prices rose a whopping 121.6% from 2008 to 2013, more than housing prices in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong housing prices rose 101.4% in that same period.
Brazilians have been paying more for housing than most other emerging markets, including big and richer global city-states like Singapore (62.5%).
Brazilians that bought homes during or slightly after the crisis have seen their housing values soar since.
The Bank (BIS) examined housing markets in 50 countries, using local real estate indices measuring average prices per square foot and average new home price. For Brazil, BIS used Central Bank indices that weigh housing prices in 11 major cities, including Rio and São Paulo, far and away the costliest cities in the country.
The biggest boom occurred right after the financial crash in the U.S. in 2008 and lasted well into 2011. Housing prices were rising on average of 20% in those cities.
In 2012, Brazil’s housing market began to cool. And now, while prices are still going through the roof, they are not going through it as fast, or making as much noise. Still, a 9% increase in 2013 is nothing to suggest a bubble is popping.
In the last 12 months, prices rose around 7%, according to the study.
“All financial crises start with turbulence in the housing market and there is no point thinking that the situation (In Brazil) will be any different,”
Only the nice areas of Rio won’t crash because it’s different here in that they are not making any more land in Ipanema/Leblon/Copacabana and Rio is the only city in Brazil that will have the Olympics in 2016. (And share this summer’s World Cup) And everybody wants to live here because it’s “The most beautiful city in the world”.
Rio’s housing market is working under a new and different economic model in which prices have reached a permanently higher plateau. My friend would only sell his house if the new buyer promised in writing to feed the monkeys fresh mangos. Right now, his million dollar house is in escrow with a buyer who’s an illegal Paraguayan papaya picker.
Brazil´s “Mr Money” Advises Not to Buy Property Until After the World Cup February 5th, 2014
Finance Professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, also known as “Mr Money”, recently advised the Brazilian public to hold off purchasing real estate or automobiles until after the World Cup in June. Luís Carlos Ewald, speaking to Época Negócios, stated that after this period prices will start to come down and good opportunities will emerge: “everybody is saying that the Cup will be great for Brazil. But, after the event passes there will be no more investors left in the country as many are fearful.”
The numbers are all over the map. (It’s Brazil) One article says prices in Brazil are up 130% in 5 years and here’s an article saying Rio de Janeiro prices are up 200% and then 300% in the SAME article. But get this….It’s “different” here. (Nice pic of Copacabana beach in this article. I’ll be on that bike path in an hour)
“Prices in real estate in Rio de Janeiro have gone up almost 300 percent in five years.”
“real estate prices have climbed 230 percent in Rio de Janeiro since 2008″
Real Estate Prices In Brazil Have Spiked 200 Percent Since 2008 — Is The Bubble About To Burst?
Brazil would seem to be following in the steps of the U.S. and some European nations, where real estate crashes helped bring a global economic downturn. But the Brazilian situation is different: There may be a price bubble, but credit for home loans is far tighter.
In the U.S., many loans were at low introductory rates, then reverted to higher interest rates, and homeowners were not able to meet payments. High-risk subprime mortgages were traded on the financial markets, with buyers of those securities only finding out later about their real risk.
Brazil, however, learned from the northern countries’ mistakes. South America’s biggest economy, which had its share of financial drama in the 1990s, has very high requirements for granting mortgages. Loans are only given to those who can prove that making the monthly payments will not require more than 30 percent of their income. Today, only 20 percent of the population has mortgage debt.
Mortgages are equivalent to 7.9 percent of Brazil’s GDP as of August 2013, up from 6.8 percent in 2012. In the U.S., on the other hand, mortgages represented 76.1 percent of the country’s GDP in 2011, and in the U.K., the rate was 80 percent in the same year.
Nevertheless, several entities have warned of an increase, however slow. Chilean business analysis firm BN Americas estimates that mortgages could account for 20 percent of the country’s GDP in the next decade. A report by London-based Capital Economics said the credit expansion “has uncomfortable echoes of the boom experienced by much of the developed world prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.”
Not sure whether it is too late at this point to outrun that tsunami wave crest?
Feb. 14, 2014, 12:59 p.m. EST Fed’s Fisher says taper should continue
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve should continue to steadily pull back from its asset purchasing program, a Federal Reserve official said Friday.
In an interview on Bloomberg Radio, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher downplayed recent signs that the economy was losing momentum. The latest sign was a 0.3% drop in industrial production in January, the first drop since July.
“Obviously weather is playing a significant role here,” Fisher said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “The economy has been moving in the right direction and I am not dissuaded…that continuing to taper should be altered,” Fisher said.
The Dallas Fed president is a voting member of the Fed’s policy making committee this year. He is one of the most hawkish U.S. central bankers.
Only something “truly frightening in the economy” or the onset of “significant deflation” would cause him to re-think the pace of tapering, Fisher said.
The Fed has cut the pace of its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion at its last two meetings, bringing total purchases down to $55 billion a month.
Earlier this week, new Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled on Tuesday in six hours of testimony before Congress that the Fed would stay the course on the reduction in the pace of purchases.
The next day, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the Fed should be cautious about altering the pace of the tapering.
Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Fed, suggested this week that the central bank might consider a faster pace of tapering.
…
Wells Fargo is back to offering subprime again. Will that translate into temporarily higher prices this Summer? I just inherited a house, and I’m going to sell it as soon as I can to get the money into a true asset.
A house of cards
Isn’t everything we say and do in this life in some way or another a house of cards. Assigning true value to our labor, our things, our houses is always going to be a nebulous calculation
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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Is the final Housing Bubble correction underway now?
There are many people on this blog who believe we are entering another housing bust and a big drop in values. I submit we are simply still cleaning up the 2007 bust. There are always bumps in the road to busts and recoveries. The stats you see and quote today about increases in foreclosures, drops in prices, etc. Is likely a reverse dead cat bounce. The exuberance gain speed rapidly last year and simply had to slow down. The helium balloon bounced off the ceiling, if you will. The sky is not falling, market normalcy is returning and we will continue with the recovery off the deep bottom. There are signs everywhere of an improving economy. There is only one way to know: make your choices and let it play out over 2014-2015.
“I submit we are simply still cleaning up the 2007 bust.”
As in finally letting the market bottom out (as Romney suggested should happen during the 2012 presidential campaign)?
As in finally letting the market bottom out
When we do it’ll look like a lot more than just a clean up.
“normalcy”
Markets normally overshoot to the downside after an epic bubble collapses. Maybe this time is different?
What was different. 6,000,000 foreclosure does not seem a bit abnormal?
No. What seems abnormal is tens of millions of empty houses.
If you look at the Shiller data, national home prices approximately hit the inflation-adjusted trough as compared to the prior two housing cycles. The Fed’s ZIRP caused prices to go back up off that cyclical bottom MUCH faster than prior cycles.
“If you look at the Shiller data, national home prices approximately hit the inflation-adjusted trough as compared to the prior two housing cycles.”
We have looked at it over and over again. Prices never came near the trend line.
And you’re comparing a mania to a cycle.
Try again.
I asked this yesterday:
“A question for Rental Watch. Do you suppose all these foreclosures came from people that stopped paying their mortgage during this 22 month run up? Or were these loans that have been in default all along and just held up by the CA homeowner bill of rights? Just thinking out loud here.”
CRICKETS!
“The sky is not falling”
You’re right. Remember…..
“Falling housing prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy”
I must say… you p.net girls are fun to have around.
Same lies, different day.
What do you do if you have to take a #2 in the middle of the night when you are sleeping in your leased Lexus, Amy?
“…we will continue with the recovery off the deep bottom.”
Why do you assume that?
‘I submit we are simply still cleaning up the 2007 bust.’
I said long ago that it didn’t matter much if one views what’s going on as the same bubble or a new one. But I can see now that at this phase, understanding the difference of the two scenarios will be important.
I have maintained it’s the same bubble. Prices never fell enough, or for long enough. Greed was not extinguished as it should have been, evidenced by how quickly market participants jumped back into speculation in housing.
How did this happen? We all know the answer; governments and central banks made huge interventions in markets and money supplies. It was a bubble interrupted.
What we are told is that the current situation is not like 2000-pick your year. It can’t be another bubble because it doesn’t look like that time period. But if it’s the same bubble, what we should expect is an unraveling of the manipulations that interrupted the bubble and prevented it from running its course. IMO that more accurately describes what is happening now.
“IMO that more accurately describes what is happening now.”
JingleBalls and Amy Hoax know better than you or I.
Whac, please don’t characterize me as “I know better than X or Y”. I was ready to buy a new home in 2005 until I stumbled upon the HBB and learned massive amounts of new information. Ben was a savior to what could have been a big mistake. Waiting to buy an new home until 2008 was very hard for me, and even then, I jumped in too soon. Then, opportunities became available on economically sensible real estate deals in ‘09 & ‘10, so a acted on more.
I do have a fundamental difference with many here (including Ben) of where we are in this stage. In the last sentence I posted, I said:
“There is only one way to know: make your choices and let it play out over 2014-2015.”
Everyone is entitled to their opinion (except HA of course, who just blabbers) and I respect the differences on this blog, which is why I keep coming back. You are an important part of that as well.
Ben says: “It was a bubble interrupted.”
I submit it was a bubble that was cushioned when it fell. Instead of a hard, fast violent drop, it was a prolonged, softened, and less violent drop. It is like the Band-Aid….your mother will slowly peel it off. What you wanted was for dad to say “man-up” and rip it off along with the hair and dead skin cells…but then be over. One way is gentler and probably healthier, the other and the pain is gone in seconds instead of minutes. Either way, the patient recovers……
There will be market direction in early 2014. In the next 90 days we will see what is happening for 2014. I suggest it will be somewhat tepid, just moving along with slight upward momentum. May 14th let’s revisit this Feb 14th post.
‘May 14th let’s revisit this Feb 14th post’
After all these years we can’t do better than wait and see? I bring this up because an interesting debate is forming. Rich Toscano recently wrote up a piece that concluded San Diego isn’t in another bubble, but is over-priced. My point is, he’s answering the wrong question.
Almost every facet of this market is couched in semantics, distortion and manipulation. From the first article in the desk clearing post:
‘Barry Bramlett, whose firm compiles the numbers, said the improvement is ‘just an illusion.’ The default rate is still high, he said. ‘It looks like a strong economy,’ he said. ‘It’s not.’
‘Todd Emerson, president of the Atlanta Board of Realtors, said he expects the figures to stay low. As the economy improves and new jobs are created, he said, more people are able to pay their mortgages.’
‘With inventory low, he expects a busy spring home-buying season that rivals the frenzied market of 2013. Emerson said low foreclosure numbers give more people the confidence to list. “It only helps home values,” he said.’
In this instance, someone is clearly lying, or at the very least spinning the facts.
I see a few things:
1) Heavy government and central bank intervention, continuing to this day.
2) Large investor interest in housing. They’re not in it because all of a sudden they wanted to become landlords, because that’s just such a lucrative business. Right? I think they got in it to chase big returns, buying up assets from the government on the cheap (the public was barred in large measure) to sell for a higher price later on.
3) Eventually, as has happened in Britain, more people will be opposed to rising house prices. With the government and central bank heavily influencing much of this, I see then changes which will allow lower prices. On the other hand, politicians love their property taxes.
4) However TBTF banks have gotten yet bigger. I see the FIRE sector more tightly consolidating control of politicians.
Bottom line: The market is artificially being held up as of right now.
The PTB are thinking, “We can hold this market as long as it takes.” Can they? It’s unclear to me.
I say we are not in “normal” range. The dip in 2008 was a dimple on a really big credit expansion lasting decades. The “trendline” does not start in 2004.
The Fed is pumping 1$Tr a year (that we know about) into the pig. With leverage (there is essentially no reserve requirement) what that adds to the money supply is probably $100Tr. There is good reason that desperate measures are taken to avoid any defaults anywhere in the world. A $Billion default would take $100Billion out of the system. It is too fragile.
The “tallest building in the world” index is sky high. There are over 20 of these beasts finished in just the past 4 or 5 years. They are all but one outside the US. All places that would still be in the 15th century were it not for US consumer debt based spending. Last big crash it was just the Empire State Building.
Whac asks “Why do you assume that?”
Simply looking at stats, boots on the ground, observations around me, other prognostications. We are in a recover mode. It may stall, it may be fragile, but we are so much stronger than 2009 it is not even comparable.
^
Says the debtor who belabors “reproduction costs” but cannot identify what the cost is.
We are in a recover mode. It may stall, it may be fragile, but we are so much stronger than 2009 it is not even comparable.
If we were where we are right now without any Fed intervention and FASB 157 I might believe you. As it is I do not believe you. I believe it’s a house of cards.
I believe it’s a house of cards.
It might all be “a house of cards”. (Which is also a good series on Netflix) But you might like this:
First C7 Corvette to pass 200 MPH does it on a Texas toll road
http://www.autoblog.com/2013/12/17/first-c7-corvette-pass-200-mph-texas-toll-road-video/
We knew that once Hennessey Performance got its hands on the seventh-generation Chevrolet Corvette Stingray, big things were going to happen. A 200.6-mile-per-hour run on a closed section of Texas’ brand-new State Highway 99, was just a shade bigger than what we were expecting…….. The blistering run was, naturally, caught on video, which we’ve included at the bottom of the page.
The car you see here is fitted with what Hennessey calls the HPE600 package, and includes long-tube headers, ported cylinder heads, high-flow catalytic converters, and an HPE camshaft and engine tune. There’s also a 100-shot of nitrous oxide available from a Nitrous Express kit, just for that little extra bit of punch. The result is 700 horsepower, up from the standard Stingray’s 460 ponies.
Sure, I always like stuff like that. Still a house of cards, though. Didn’t some really cool stuff get made as we headed into the depression?
Is the final Housing Bubble correction underway now?”
As long as the FED bank can create Debt and people will buy it then Deflation is keep under control.
How long can they do this ? But that’s another question.
Hello Fed! Whatcha gonna do now?
1) how about those economic numbers. People can’t get out to spend. Gas sales down and utility costs climbing.
2) air traffic grounded. What does that do for the service industry numbers? Hotels, restaurants?
3) are people snowed in using vacation time for pay now and not spending on vacations this summer?
4) what about all the over time costs for emergency services?
5) what about all the spring floods when the heat wave heads east?
6) where are all those house sales in the snowed in Eastern half of the country?
7) things are coming into play for the perfect economic meltdown!
“air traffic grounded.”
Heading to Flyover next week. Wish me luck!
P.S. Air fares are dirt cheap right now…
The sun will come out again……
3) are people snowed in using vacation time for pay now and not spending on vacations this summer?
I’m guessing that most of those people (the ones who get paid vacations, not the lucky duckies) worked from home on their laptops.
7) things are coming into play for the perfect economic meltdown!
I don’t know if all those things make a big difference in the big picture.
Part of your list can be considered savings and balance sheet repair (less spending) and part of your list can be considered as adding a stimulus to the economy. (Overtime, and flood response)
Is the Fed still “flooding the economy with money” even as they taper QE3?
Feb. 14, 2014, 6:30 a.m. EST
3 things the Fed can’t explain
Opinion: No, the Fed doesn’t have a helicopter, why do you ask?
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve puts a lot of stock in its communication skills. A big part of monetary policy is explaining what you’re doing (and plan to do) so participants in the economy can alter their expectations about interest rates, growth and inflation.
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The Fed is not flooding the economy with money.
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“A big part of monetary policy is explaining what you’re doing (and plan to do) so participants in the economy can alter their expectations about interest rates, growth and inflation.”
Lol. Does anyone here remember how Greenspan used to “explain” what he was up to? He was the guy who took great pride in using language to conceal, not reveal.
The Fed is not flooding the economy with money.’
Tell that to the BRICs after the hot money bailed
Is it a mistake for unemployed people to tap their 401(K) plan rather than go hungry?
I don’t see why this is such a terrible mistake, given the risks in the stock market and that savings are paying near zero percent interest.
Feb. 13, 2014, 5:01 a.m. EST
This is a retirement saver’s worst mistake
Impulsively cashing out a 401(k) could cost you your retirement
By Andrea Coombes
When you need cash, there’s nothing like the temptation sitting in your retirement account — that stash of money that becomes all-too-available when you lose or quit your job. But withdrawing those savings can leave a deep scar on your future retirement income, according to a new report.
A hefty 35% of people who left their jobs last year cashed out their retirement savings rather than keeping their money in a tax-qualified retirement account, according to a new study by Fidelity Investments of the 12.5 million participants in the 401(k) plans it administers — and those findings are echoed by previous studies from other sources. (Note that just 806,000, or 6.5%, of that total number of plan participants ended their job in the January through September period studied by Fidelity.)
There’s no doubt that taking the cash is a financial necessity for some people, and it’s not surprising that the practice is more prevalent among those with lower incomes than among those who make more: 50% of those earning $20,000 to $30,000 cashed out in 2013, versus 13% of those earning $100,000 or more, according to Fidelity.
Younger savers are also more prone to the practice: 44% of those aged 20 to 29 cashed out, compared with 26% of those 50 to 59, the report said.
But anyone who doesn’t absolutely need the cash should think long and hard before grabbing that money to spend on stuff now. Generally, you’ll play income taxes and a 10% penalty for pulling out the money early. Plus, your long-term savings will take a hit.
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I heard all this the last 25 years. Now that I followed all the do’s and did not do the dont’s I no longer worry about losing my job for four or five years.
EXACTLY.
Fair enough. But if somebody less fortunate, industrious or whatever compared to you had a choice between eating or never touching their 401(K) savings, which would be preferred?
Self insured is a BEA-utiful thing!!
Do those online real estate data services make any money?
Feb. 14, 2014, 9:12 a.m. EST
Trulia’s loss widens on increased costs
By Erin McCarthy
Trulia Inc.’s TRLA -14.63% said its losses widened in the fourth quarter as the online real-estate-listing service’s costs and expenses more than doubled.
Shares slumped more than 11% after hours.
San Francisco-based Trulia provides home listings through the Web and mobile applications, and makes money selling subscriptions and advertisements.
Trulia, which competes with Zillow Inc. (Z), has benefited from a strong increase in mobile traffic. In the latest period, total traffic rose 49% to 35.3 million monthly unique visitors. Mobile monthly unique visitors rose 86% to 14.3 million.
Total subscribers at the end of the period were 59,700.
Overall Trulia reported a loss of $11.1 million, or 30 cents a share, compared with year-earlier loss of $1.6 million, or 6 cents a share. Excluding special items, adjusted earnings were three cents a share compared with a year-ago loss of three cents a share. Revenue more than doubled to $49.7 million.
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But that’s ok…. being a NAR affiliated organization means there is a endless supply of cash to continue their charade.
How do houses compare to Bitcoin as alternative currencies?
Since most of the buildings in Ordos were never occupied, I guess it’s hard to claim that “nobody could have seen it coming” in this case. Rather, everybody on the planet saw it coming.
Private lending crisis cripples coal city of Ordos
Staff Reporter
2014-02-12
10:05 (GMT+8)
A large sculpture in Genghis Khan Square in the Kangbashi New Area of Ordos, Inner Mongolia, Aug. 26, 2012. (Photo/Xinhua)
After the housing market bubble burst in the city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia, which led to the liquidation of many of the city’s residents’ financial assets, people who funded the construction of the city have begun demanding a refund for their money from fundraisers, the Chinese-language Securities Times reports.
“The fundraisers invested the capital in the real-estate market and now the houses are unsellable. We bought a house at 6,000 yuan (US$990) per square meter but now its selling price is 4,300 yuan (US$709) per square meter,” said a resident surnamed Wu, who lives on the west side of the Dongsheng district of Ordos.
Wu added that the developer was his relative so he had invested in the project in cash. His family thought they could make a profit after the houses were resold, but now the money is gone and the developer has pledged them two units, said Wu.
Wu’s experience is common in Ordos, where wealth from the coal mining industry made the city the richest in China in terms of per capita GDP. A lot of people own several houses because fundraisers pawn houses and other assets as they are unable to pay back their debts in cash.
The Cybercrime Economy
Bitcoin is under attack
By Jose Pagliery @Jose_Pagliery February 12, 2014: 7:14 PM ET
Cyber attackers are exploiting a Bitcoin flaw, knocking major exchanges offline.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Bitcoin is under attack by cybercriminals, bringing down some of the world’s largest Bitcoin exchanges in the process.
Unknown attackers are exploiting a Bitcoin design flaw to record fake transactions, muddying up the Bitcoin system’s public accounting and causing widespread confusion for the centers where people trade them.
The Bitcoin flaw allows these attackers to make a withdrawal from their own account and tamper with the record of that transaction. So they could cash out, but claim they never got the Bitcoins.
Here’s how the Bitcoin glitch is exploited: All Bitcoin transactions are publicly recorded and set in stone every 10 minutes. But that leaves a large window for nefarious activity. In this case, attackers were making real transactions then immediately posting fake ones, confusing the exchanges’ accounting programs.
Computer engineers working on Bitcoin’s core functions say this kind of denial-of-service attack is inexpensive and relatively easy to pull off.
The glitch was first made public in 2011 but has not been addressed by every Bitcoin exchange. Jeff Garzik, one of Bitcoin’s core developers, said some exchanges were getting duped because their software doesn’t account for the flaw. That’s why in the last several days, Bitstamp and Mt.Gox have halted customer withdrawals. Other exchanges have created software programs that avoid the glitch.
The attacks aren’t affecting people’s wallets or the amount of bitcoins held in their personal accounts, according to Bitcoin’s leading advocates. People can still purchase goods with bitcoins, but many are unable to withdraw their money.
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How would that recent 113K jobs number look w/o seasonal adjustment? I’m thinking the raw data were -3,000,000 or so jobs lost in the most recent period, but that was something I caught on NPR while barely paying attention.
I heard the same thing. That’s about right. Apparently the seasonal firings after the holidays make the raw data show about 3MM job losses from December to January.
What seasonally adjusted data does and doesn’t mean
Commence the snowday meltdown.
by Adriene Hill
February 13, 2014 - 2:11pm
Most of the time, when we’re talking about some hot-off-the-press-economic-indicator, we’re talking about a ’seasonally adjusted’ number. It’s basically a number that takes into account what’s normal and expected. “There are patterns that occur in economic data regularly at the same time every year,” says Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University. “Some have to do with the weather, some of them have to do with holidays.”
Economists smooth the patterns out, adjusting the numbers up or down. Take for instance jobs numbers. When Kai Ryssdal says, “the economy added 113,000 jobs last month,” on Marketplace, he’s right … if you’re taking into account the seasonal adjustment.
But if you look at the raw data, the economy dumped nearly 3 million jobs between December and January.
“Seasonal adjustment is this absolutely enormous factor that is taking a minus 3 million number and turning it into a small positive,” says Wright.
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Brazil to China: “You can’t touch this”
When It Comes To Real Estate Bubbles, China’s Got Nothing On Brazil
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2014/01/18/when-it-comes-to-real-estate-bubbles-chinas-got-nothing-on-brazil/
World investors may be worried about China’s real estate bubble. But only one country surpasses that market’s housing boom, and that’s Brazil.
Whether it’s because of the new mortgage market and low interest loans available to Brazilians earning more money, or just a plain old over-stretched housing bubble, the roof has blown off Brazil’s housing market. Anyone who has bought a home in Brazil is smiling wide with its increased valuation. Anyone trying to buy a home has surely been priced out of a market or two over the last five years.
The sober Bank for International Settlements — the Central Bank of the world’s Central Banks — said this week that over the last five years no market on earth was hotter than Brazilian housing.
In fact, Brazil home prices rose a whopping 121.6% from 2008 to 2013, more than housing prices in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong housing prices rose 101.4% in that same period.
Brazilians have been paying more for housing than most other emerging markets, including big and richer global city-states like Singapore (62.5%).
Brazilians that bought homes during or slightly after the crisis have seen their housing values soar since.
The Bank (BIS) examined housing markets in 50 countries, using local real estate indices measuring average prices per square foot and average new home price. For Brazil, BIS used Central Bank indices that weigh housing prices in 11 major cities, including Rio and São Paulo, far and away the costliest cities in the country.
The biggest boom occurred right after the financial crash in the U.S. in 2008 and lasted well into 2011. Housing prices were rising on average of 20% in those cities.
In 2012, Brazil’s housing market began to cool. And now, while prices are still going through the roof, they are not going through it as fast, or making as much noise. Still, a 9% increase in 2013 is nothing to suggest a bubble is popping.
In the last 12 months, prices rose around 7%, according to the study.
Good morning Lola.
ABQ Dan gave you a good thrashing Wednesday. Are you ok?
“All financial crises start with turbulence in the housing market and there is no point thinking that the situation (In Brazil) will be any different,”
Only the nice areas of Rio won’t crash because it’s different here in that they are not making any more land in Ipanema/Leblon/Copacabana and Rio is the only city in Brazil that will have the Olympics in 2016. (And share this summer’s World Cup) And everybody wants to live here because it’s “The most beautiful city in the world”.
Rio’s housing market is working under a new and different economic model in which prices have reached a permanently higher plateau. My friend would only sell his house if the new buyer promised in writing to feed the monkeys fresh mangos. Right now, his million dollar house is in escrow with a buyer who’s an illegal Paraguayan papaya picker.
Brazil´s “Mr Money” Advises Not to Buy Property Until After the World Cup February 5th, 2014
http://www.brazilinvestmentguide.com/blog/2014/02/mr-money-advises-not-to-buy-property-until-after-the-world-cup/
Finance Professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, also known as “Mr Money”, recently advised the Brazilian public to hold off purchasing real estate or automobiles until after the World Cup in June. Luís Carlos Ewald, speaking to Época Negócios, stated that after this period prices will start to come down and good opportunities will emerge: “everybody is saying that the Cup will be great for Brazil. But, after the event passes there will be no more investors left in the country as many are fearful.”
Stick with your own backyard and discuss Washington, DC Lola.
The numbers are all over the map. (It’s Brazil) One article says prices in Brazil are up 130% in 5 years and here’s an article saying Rio de Janeiro prices are up 200% and then 300% in the SAME article. But get this….It’s “different” here. (Nice pic of Copacabana beach in this article. I’ll be on that bike path in an hour)
“Prices in real estate in Rio de Janeiro have gone up almost 300 percent in five years.”
“real estate prices have climbed 230 percent in Rio de Janeiro since 2008″
Real Estate Prices In Brazil Have Spiked 200 Percent Since 2008 — Is The Bubble About To Burst?
http://www.ibtimes.com/real-estate-prices-brazil-have-spiked-200-percent-2008-bubble-about-burst-1489908
Brazil would seem to be following in the steps of the U.S. and some European nations, where real estate crashes helped bring a global economic downturn. But the Brazilian situation is different: There may be a price bubble, but credit for home loans is far tighter.
In the U.S., many loans were at low introductory rates, then reverted to higher interest rates, and homeowners were not able to meet payments. High-risk subprime mortgages were traded on the financial markets, with buyers of those securities only finding out later about their real risk.
Brazil, however, learned from the northern countries’ mistakes. South America’s biggest economy, which had its share of financial drama in the 1990s, has very high requirements for granting mortgages. Loans are only given to those who can prove that making the monthly payments will not require more than 30 percent of their income. Today, only 20 percent of the population has mortgage debt.
Mortgages are equivalent to 7.9 percent of Brazil’s GDP as of August 2013, up from 6.8 percent in 2012. In the U.S., on the other hand, mortgages represented 76.1 percent of the country’s GDP in 2011, and in the U.K., the rate was 80 percent in the same year.
Nevertheless, several entities have warned of an increase, however slow. Chilean business analysis firm BN Americas estimates that mortgages could account for 20 percent of the country’s GDP in the next decade. A report by London-based Capital Economics said the credit expansion “has uncomfortable echoes of the boom experienced by much of the developed world prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.”
Long hours on the DC stroll last nite?
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/next-problem-for-obamacare–deadbeat-enrollees-153839675.html
Is a taper acceleration on the way?
Not sure whether it is too late at this point to outrun that tsunami wave crest?
Feb. 14, 2014, 12:59 p.m. EST
Fed’s Fisher says taper should continue
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve should continue to steadily pull back from its asset purchasing program, a Federal Reserve official said Friday.
In an interview on Bloomberg Radio, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher downplayed recent signs that the economy was losing momentum. The latest sign was a 0.3% drop in industrial production in January, the first drop since July.
“Obviously weather is playing a significant role here,” Fisher said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “The economy has been moving in the right direction and I am not dissuaded…that continuing to taper should be altered,” Fisher said.
The Dallas Fed president is a voting member of the Fed’s policy making committee this year. He is one of the most hawkish U.S. central bankers.
Only something “truly frightening in the economy” or the onset of “significant deflation” would cause him to re-think the pace of tapering, Fisher said.
The Fed has cut the pace of its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion at its last two meetings, bringing total purchases down to $55 billion a month.
Earlier this week, new Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled on Tuesday in six hours of testimony before Congress that the Fed would stay the course on the reduction in the pace of purchases.
The next day, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the Fed should be cautious about altering the pace of the tapering.
Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Fed, suggested this week that the central bank might consider a faster pace of tapering.
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Wells Fargo is back to offering subprime again. Will that translate into temporarily higher prices this Summer? I just inherited a house, and I’m going to sell it as soon as I can to get the money into a true asset.
A house of cards
Isn’t everything we say and do in this life in some way or another a house of cards. Assigning true value to our labor, our things, our houses is always going to be a nebulous calculation
Weekend Topic Suggestion: Should we be putting together a care package for fxr?
Another flip that flops in So. Cal.??? We’ll see. The last one I watched was on market for over 3 months and barely covered reconditioning…
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9659-Prichard-St-Bellflower-CA-90706/70395424_zpid/