February 15, 2014

Bits Bucket for February 15, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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180 Comments »

Comment by Hard Rain
2014-02-15 05:47:57

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Home sellers and real estate professionals can break out some of that leftover bubbly from New Year’s Eve and clink a glass or two to a stellar opening for the 2014 housing market.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, sales of new single-family homes skyrocketed by 35% from December to January. That amounts to an annual adjusted rate of 543,000 new homes sold, despite a sputtering economy and sinking consumer confidence.

There’s also a sentiment among economists that there was ample upside room for improvement for home sales after a weak ending to 2013.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/12366875/1/new-years-housing-market-is-something-to-celebrate-8232.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 08:51:14

Yet their data they release every week shows overall housing demand groveling down near 1997 levels.

It appears NAR/MBA delivered a very fat envelope to thestreet.com offices last week.

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-02-15 09:09:19

In the past two weeks I’ve posted articles referring to large incentives (price cuts) for new houses marketed in Florida and Nevada.

From the article:

‘There is a moderately downbeat note. The MBA reports that home mortgage loan sizes are shrinking. The average loan size in January fell to $289,358 from $300,444 in December.’

These price cuts make instant FB’s out of the people who bought previously. And next month, they’ll undercut today’s buyer, and so on.

Break out the bubbly real estate professionals! More new supply on its way just as inventory is rising and foreclosures skyrocket.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-02-15 09:19:16

‘The average loan size in January fell to $289,358 from $300,444 in December.’

These price cuts make instant FB’s out of the people who bought previously.

Lower mortgage loan sizes is not the same as “price cuts”—it might well be largely explained by mix shift, e.g. more volume at the lower price-points, and less volume at higher price-points.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2014-02-15 09:30:14

‘it might well be largely explained by mix shift’

I’m familiar with the concept. Just like how low cost house sales are plummeting in California, while very expensive house sales are way up. This explains how prices are falling even as the median shows increases.

Builders are cutting prices. Check out the Nevada post this week including the comments.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 10:30:00

They broke out the bubbly on Wall Street in the stellar months leading up to Black Tuesday in October 1929.

Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 11:08:46

I have a real concern that with all the bubbly Lola breaks out, he won’t make it to the summer games in 2016.

 
 
 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-02-15 06:42:57

Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 07:50:08

HEEHAW!!! Donkey HEEHAW!!!

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 08:01:37

30 years worth of mortgage interest invoices would make a cozy wallpaper for your little nest.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 14:13:55

“30 years worth of mortgage interest invoices would make a cozy wallpaper for your little nest.”

Makes for good kindling too.

 
 
Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 08:17:26

Pimping tragedy will never feel like a professional career.

Comment by tj
2014-02-15 20:32:43

beautiful!

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 09:44:54

“Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.”

Foreigner- Feels like the First Time - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBxbPts5tOk - 113k -

I would climb any mountain
Sail across a stormy sea
If that’s what it takes me Amy
To show you just what you’ve done to me

And I guess it’s just the Realtor in you
That brings out the Beat in me
I know I can’t help myself
So I live in this house for free

It feels like I’m subprime
Feels like I’m really subprime
It feels like I’m subprime
Feels like I’m really subprime

Now that I need a lifeline
Spent my cash so foolishly
But now that I’m three years delinquent
Together we’ll make history

And I know that it must be the Realtor in you
That brings out the victim in me
I know I can’t help myself
You’re all that my eyes can see

And It feels like I’m subprime
Like it never did before
Feels like I’m subprime
Like you’ve opened up the door
Feels like I’m subprime
Like it never will again, never again

Feels like I’m subprime
(It feels like I’m subprime)
It feels like I’m subprime
(Very, very, it feels)
It feels like I’m subprime
(oh it feels like I’m subprime)
It feels like I’m very subprime

Now you’ve opened up the door? Yeah

Comment by Neuromance
2014-02-15 09:52:00

+1 Fantastic. Interesting skill you’ve got :)

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 10:52:25

brilliant!

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-02-15 11:17:03

Another great one, jeff!

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 15:25:58

When are you going to publish your compilation of Housing Bubble Classic Rock lyrics?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2014-02-16 15:42:10

I know I’m late to the party, but holy cow that’s good.

 
Comment by rms
2014-02-16 19:35:00

+1 That’s fugg’n awesome!

Somebody around here have any Karaoke skills?

 
 
Comment by Anon In DC
2014-02-15 11:22:13

I’ve lived in rentals since selling a house in 2005. And lived in a rental before owning. The ownership or lack of has never affected my enjoyment of my homes. I do like the ALL the money I have saved ($1500 per month) by renting instead of owning for the past ten years. ~ $200K in cash puts a nice spring in one’s step let me tell you.

Comment by oxide
2014-02-15 11:27:15

May I ask what type of home you sold and what you are renting?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 14:12:38

Because renting an apartment with three bedrooms per person is unlikely?

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Comment by oxide
2014-02-15 14:51:25

No, because I am interested in how Anon is saving $1500/month by renting. I could move from living in a 3/2 by myself, to a 1-bed apartment with 4 roommates, and STILL not save $1500 a month on rent vs. own.

Is he including the stock gains since 2009?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 17:41:28

I guess it all depends! I saved $400 a month selling to renting, plus $400 a month not paying the RE taxes on top of the mortgage, plus about $200 a month on utilities (six months of the year) because I downsized, plus maybe $200 a month in maintenance (generous, the old gal really wanted closer to a $500 a month), plus $50 a month in insurance and I sidestepped a $40K loss in resale price. So I was in that range.

I reverted to the standard deduction, which is a real renter’s subsidy! Also I did not have to mow the grass!

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 15:28:20

“I do like the ALL the money I have saved ($1500 per month) by renting instead of owning for the past ten years. ~ $200K in cash puts a nice spring in one’s step let me tell you.”

It is pretty nice to think of all the money you save by renting, not owning, isn’t it? Come to think of it, I’ve saved up more than $300K since 2005 by renting, not owning. I believe that’s enough to buy a family-sized house outright in most parts of the U.S. — not to suggest that I plan to ever do anything so financially stupid.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 15:30:05

P.S. That was a conservative estimate of the amount saved, as it doesn’t consider three fully paid-off Japanese automobiles, a violin, and both a violin and a viola bow that we have purchased and own free-and-clear thanks to renting, not owning, during the Great Recession.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 15:32:10

I guess I could also mention the vacations to Hawaii and Europe that we paid for out of savings from renting, not owning, and we probably dined out quite often at much nicer restaurants than Applebees’ along the way…

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 17:44:48

I’ve spent a fortune on travel, fast women and aged single malt with the money saved on renting, and still saved enough extra to buy a house outright.

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 19:49:13

+1 Blue!

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 22:31:16

“…and still saved enough extra to buy a house outright.”

The other great thing about renting and saving is that you can time your home purchase (if you ever make one) to when the market is in the tank, and prices are affordable. We haven’t reached that point in California since the 1996-1997 period, but it seems likely it will happen again some time over the next couple of decades.

 
Comment by rms
2014-02-16 02:48:42

“The other great thing about renting and saving is that you can time your home purchase (if you ever make one) to when the market is in the tank, and prices are affordable.”

+1 We rented for five years in eastern Washington before I bought “the dip” in March 2003. Unfortunately it was clear that coastal California was beyond the grasp of our one income family, and the central valley was not an option.

 
 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 17:57:23

The smart money is in the hands of renters. The dumbos want to be able to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to the banks so they can paint their walls their favorite color.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 21:07:07

“I’ve saved up more than $300K since 2005 by renting,”

Just under $1 million here. If I had made the idiotic mistake of talking myself into buying a house, I would be negative for certain… which reminds me of a conversation I recently had with a very close friend. Frankie is 55 years old, beautiful wife and daughter, working class technical career and a real gem of a person…. he said;

” ______, If I liquidated everything I have, I might break even”.

Frank paid $300k-400k for a house back in 2002.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 22:36:28

That’s amazing. Of course I didn’t add in the opportunity cost of 10 years’ worth of living expenses for our kids. If that wasn’t close to a million bucks, it sure felt like it.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by azdude02
2014-02-15 06:46:54

its been a great recovery for the rich.

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 07:17:06

Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

Comment by In Colorado
2014-02-15 07:38:37

The rich deserve more votes than the little people.

 
 
Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 08:21:08

Whatever happened to the working man.

Comment by Combotechie
2014-02-15 08:42:32

“Whatever happened to the working man.”

He’s still working, but he is working somewhere else instead of working here.

Over here in this country (where the working man used to live) the working man has been replaced by the debt man.

Comment by Combotechie
2014-02-15 09:06:21

IMHO the shipping of jobs from here to somewhere else is the root of all our problems, and until we somehow get a solution to this job migration situation we will endlessly suffer - collectively - a decline in our standard of living.

Right now the money that used to be earned here is now borrowed; What used to be our earned money economy has slowly morphed into a borrowed money economy.

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Comment by Combotechie
2014-02-15 09:32:36

And once an earned money economy becomes a borrowed money economy then there is a radical power shift to whomever it is that in is the position of control over the costs and the supply of this borrowed money.

If the person in control is a genius then you will get one result, if the person in control is an idiot then you will get a different result.

 
Comment by the zima guy
2014-02-15 10:17:00

Shipping jobs wasn’t necessarily bad. Without Greenanke cheap money Corporations would have been forced to spend money om creating new jobs, instead all energy and money went on speculation of housing/stocks/dotcom&socialmedia.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 13:38:41

I like what you’re saying Combo.

For a few decades at least, the United States has not been interested in producing wealth. We move wealth around, and in the process, we erode it.

Of all professions, lawyers are considered the biggest drain on societal wealth. They produce very little wealth at very high cost. Not only does law remove wealth, it also does so very slowly, so slowly that wealth producers remain stymied in their quest to generate new wealth.

If we were smart, we’d offshore professions that drain wealth (such as law). Let our competitors pay the costs of hosting those that represent a fiscal drain.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-02-15 17:06:03

Not only does law remove wealth

Isn’t the rule of law necessary to build and maintain wealth? Without, you only have wealth until someone stronger comes along and takes it from you by force.

 
 
Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 11:18:24

we will endlessly suffer - collectively - a decline in our standard of living

And yet, in many ways the std of living has gone way up. Despite the agenda pimps claims, there is access to great food pretty cheap and accessible, cable, cell phones, computers, massive amounts of free information, books, music, and college courses online for free. Entertainment options abound. Gyms on every corner practically, where 30 yrs ago there was just a Vic Tannys. Farmers are paid NOT to grow food.

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Comment by the zima guy
2014-02-15 10:08:51

Working man has been replaced by Borrowing man….

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 17:59:53

Drive an old car and wear faded jeans and a cheap watch and you will be overlooked by friends and relatives who prey on “soft touch” people to mooch money from.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 10:32:38

Either he’s unemployed, or he’s still working, with more work and less income to show for it.

 
Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:11:51

He is getting trickled down upon.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 13:22:38

And Washington DC remains the wealthiest metropolitan area across the entire United States.

Must be golden trickles that he’s getting, since it’s the NeoCon-Progressive Party members doing the streaming.

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Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 14:18:13

“its been a great recovery for the rich”
And the savers. My 401k plan started on January 1 2009 has a balance of just over $536,000, although I also moved $100,000 from an IRA into it a couple years ago. 130% gains, excluding my contributions and company contributions since January 2009.

Total IRA and 401k balances today are above $856,000. 25 years of savings.

I must be a 1%er then.

This diatribe against so-called 1%ers is all cow pie.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 06:54:10

KEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEYRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASH!

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 07:03:50

Is the Housing Bubble destined to live on forevermore?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 07:04:59

Why the Slowdown in U.S. Housing?

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — Miller Samuel President and CEO Jonathan Miller discusses U.S. housing on Bloomberg Television’s “Bottom Line.” (Source: Bloomberg)

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 07:07:02

Australia’s housing bubble ready to burst, US investment guru claims
House prices set to plummet by up to 50% as ‘demographic crisis’ and falling Chinese demand looms
Martin Farrer
theguardian.com, Thursday 13 February 2014 16.10 EST

Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:16:13

Auto makers are pulling out of Australia over the next few years.

There may soon be no manufacturing occurring in Australia.

Shades of what could happen in the US.

Comment by rms
2014-02-15 11:41:28

“Auto makers are pulling out…”

Barack Sr should have pulled out.

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Comment by the zima guy
2014-02-15 11:58:45

I bet he said he would…….

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 18:02:29

Then two daughters later…

 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 07:09:12

U.S. Housing Market Hits Headwinds
Pending Sales Slide as Cold Weather, Rising Prices Dent Demand
By Nick Timiraos and Kris Hudson
Updated Jan. 30, 2014 2:44 p.m. ET

The housing market, already showing signs of slowing after a big jump in mortgage rates last summer, cooled further at the end of last year, according to economic reports and the latest quarterly results from several big home builders.

An index measuring contracts to buy existing homes fell 8.7% in December from November to its lowest level in more than two years, according to the National Association of Realtors. Pending sales stood 8.8% below the year-earlier level.

Meanwhile, housing construction’s contribution to gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, declined during the fourth quarter, subtracting one-third of a percentage point from economic growth. That was the first such decline in more than three years, according to the Commerce Department report.

Some economists blamed the dip in sales and construction on cold winter weather. “The drop was inconsistent with the fundamentals, and you’ll see a snapback in the current quarter,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

But others aren’t so sure and are questioning whether the recent pullback will be temporary or the beginning of slower growth. “Weather was a contributing factor but not the only thing here, especially in the West,” where contract activity dropped 16% from a year earlier, said Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow Inc.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 07:51:18

Is Nick Timaros still getting consulting fees from NAR, NAHB and MBA?

Comment by rms
2014-02-15 08:02:12

A house is just a box resting on the ground with a few pipes and wires connected to it. What else could he possibly contribute?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 08:02:53

Dented up demand

 
Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 08:23:42

Beautiful weather weekend in PHX. Lots of FBs have their hopes pinned on the beautiful three day weekend relieving them of their albatrosses.

Probably too nice to waste looking at houses though.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 07:10:39

US pending home sales in sharp fall
31 Jan, 2014 3:31 AM

A barometer of future home sales fell sharply in December, as cold weather and rising prices dampened demand in a fresh sign of weakness in the United States’ housing recovery.

The National Association of Realtors said its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales of existing homes fell to 92.4 in December, down 8.7 per cent from a downwardly revised 101.2 in November. A value of 100 is equal to the level of activity in 2001, the starting point for the index.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted a 0.8 per cent decline in the index.

The index is a leading indicator of demand because it counts sales as contracts are signed, about one or two months before they typically close. It hit a six-year high in May and has fallen for seven straight months.

The index was down 8.8 per cent in December from a year earlier. It was at its lowest level in December since October 2011, when the index stood at 92.2.

“Unusually disruptive weather across large stretches of the country in December forced people indoors and prevented some buyers from looking at homes or making offers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in a statement.

“Home prices rising faster than income is also giving pause to some potential buyers, while at the same time a lack of inventory means insufficient choice.”

Comment by oxide
2014-02-15 08:24:29

Last night’s economic news was all about the weather. Not one pundit expressed concern that our economy is so weak that we can’t sit at home for 2-3 days without bringing down the country.

Comment by the zima guy
2014-02-15 09:55:38

Bush was right…it’s every american’s patriotic duty to borrow money and spend on things that they don’t need regardless of the snow, ice, rain and terrorism.

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Comment by jose canusi
2014-02-15 10:33:26

“Not one pundit expressed concern that our economy is so weak that we can’t sit at home for 2-3 days without bringing down the country.”

Exactly. But I think the reason why they don’t express concern is that for all the moaning, it isn’t a concern, it’s just a way of presenting more bad news to rivet the sheeple and sell advertising $$. Never did I used to hear all this trumped up panic and heavy breathing about snow and the economy, back in the day.

OK, so retailers lose some foot traffic. Some flights get grounded. We fly too much anyway. And the economy shifts: ski areas make money, hardware stores sell weather related items, the weather shows up things around the house that need fixing, the heat gets jacked up, etc., etc. You get the idea.

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Comment by In Colorado
2014-02-15 15:16:15

And the stuff you didn’t buy during blizzard week, you’ll but next week when the weather clears up.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 07:12:12

Has the U.S. Housing Market Peaked?

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — Bank of America Merrill Lynch Senior U.S. Economist Michelle Meyer discusses U.S. housing on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Comment by oxide
2014-02-15 11:26:00

Not if the homebuilders have anything to say about it. Today’s banner ad was for more “stacked townhomes,” this time in Loudon County, VA.

http://www.ryanhomes.com/find-your-home/our-communities/virginia/dulles/arcola-center

Each townhome is two units, a 3/2 “Matisse” for $330K and a 2/2 “Rubens” for $280K. The ground floor has two one-car garages (one for each unit) and the living area for the Matisse. The second floor is the three bedrooms for the Matisse unit. The top floor is the Rubens two-bedroom condo flat.

In addition you can buy “grand townhomes” from the low $430s. Maybe I’m being a snob, but wtf is up with building a 3000 sq ft house which still shares two walls and has windows only in the front and back?

 
 
Comment by azdude02
2014-02-15 07:20:59

Seems like the only way to grow the economy is by growing asset bubbles. No one wants to tackle the real problems. Printing money is the easy way out. We really need a leader today. someone who can look out long term rather than just doing whats good to get elected.

Comment by rms
2014-02-15 07:36:43

“Seems like the only way to grow the economy is by growing asset bubbles.”

+1 Credit is an amazing thing until one has to pay it back.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-02-15 07:39:37

+1 Credit is an amazing thing until one has to pay it back.

BK, baby!

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Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:17:36

Or high inflation.

 
Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 11:24:35

Going bankrupt should realign a person’s priorities towards less spending or making more money, getting whatever the problems were under control, but does it just serve to allow a reset so the whole shebang can begin again?

I’m excluding outside event bankruptcies like catastrophic medical expenses. Maybe they should be in a different category?

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 10:18:27

So is socialism.

Funny how socialists don’t make the connection between easy credit and socialism.

Borrow from the future to make today grand.

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Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:19:19

All debt is borrowing from the future.

Even when a capitalist like Warren Buffet or a free-marketer like Ronald Reagan does it.

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 14:23:24

Passed by a car loan shop today in Phoenix in the Arcadia district and it got me thinking - borrowing is one of the worst financial decisions anyone could do, including on a house. I laugh about people worried about their credit scores.

The wise young person would room with other young people - each should have their own bedroom in a house - they would live cheap and be able to have lots more money left over to save - and they would have no reason ever to borrow money if they are working in their professional fields (typically STEM).

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 10:35:00

What makes you think credit has to ever be repaid? Defaulters rule, repayers drool.

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Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2014-02-15 07:38:10

‘We really need a leader today. someone who can look out long term rather than just doing whats good to get elected.’

The grind of politics I am sure weeds out most who have lofty goals. Look at how the measly level politics of a workplace can cause one consternation. Now, imagine your ego being tested nationally. Maybe the sport of it grabs the candidates plus the chances for money and recognition. Seeing what I see, there is no shortage of bums who want to tell others what to do.

 
Comment by oxide
2014-02-15 07:45:50

The answer is very easy. Corporations simply need to give up their idea of maximizing profits and instead create more careers which provide goods and services. Not just jobs; I mean stable professions which pay $40-60K, can be trained with 2-4 years of state college, and are stable for 7-10 years at a time. Add in a little public option health care, and perhaps a tariff on offshore services, and other problems will solve themselves.

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 07:47:49

Commie talk!

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Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 08:34:25

Exactly right, even though I know your are being sarcastic.

The exact opposite is needed. Things will only get better after getting much worse because that is what is needed to realign the values back to where they need to be.

Right now we are at a metaphoric 289 lbs and need to go on a diet that will take lots of suffering. Either that or die early from diabeetus and heart disease.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 08:07:27

People do not go into business to “create careers”. Do you forego the taking home of your pay to make room at your desk for someone who needs a career?

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Comment by the zima guy
2014-02-15 08:20:35

More stuff like this…you will hear IRS knock on your door.

How dare you question a government employee? Don’t you know they are better than you and looking out for your well being?

 
Comment by tj
2014-02-15 20:38:35

People do not go into business to “create careers”. Do you forego the taking home of your pay to make room at your desk for someone who needs a career?

well said Blue.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 09:58:23

That sounds great.

Let us know how it goes starting your OWN business to do the things you espouse…

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Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 10:27:17

A very good suggestion.

Today’s Big Government advocates should be FORCED to start and then operate their own business on their own dime and watch for 7-10 years to see how it all plays out.

60-80 hours a week with few vacations and no benefits. For up to 120 months straight.

I am so tired of East Coast residents who believe they know better despite zero practical experience.

 
 
 
Comment by Pete
2014-02-15 16:42:46

“We really need a leader today. someone who can look out long term rather than just doing whats good to get elected.”

The question is, then, would we elect him/her?

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 07:03:51

The Second Subprime Bubble Is Bursting, Gundlach Warns

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/24/2014

About 32 percent of seriously delinquent borrowers, those at least 90 days late, haven’t made a payment in more than four years, up 7 percent from the beginning of 2012, according to Fitch analyst Sean Nelson.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-24/second-subprime-bubble-bursting-gundlach-warns - 123k -

Comment by rms
2014-02-15 08:15:33

“In 2013, we were very bullish on subprime,” said Anup Agarwal, head of mortgage-backed and structured products at Pasadena, California-based Western Asset Management.

These suits are bullish when the fed provides the guarantees, but the reality is that these greedy usurers are looting their host country.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 10:36:46

“About 32 percent of seriously delinquent borrowers, those at least 90 days late, haven’t made a payment in more than four years, up 7 percent from the beginning of 2012, according to Fitch analyst Sean Nelson.”

Defaulters rule, repayers drool.

 
 
Comment by rms
2014-02-15 07:56:25

Seems like the jooz are all lathered-up over John Kerry “devotion” lately. They should extend us some slack since we’re mired in a depression.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 08:07:08

This robot-like devotion is strange indeed.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-02-15 10:38:40

Not sure what you’re discussing here. You mean the blind devotion to Israel, right or wrong? Yes, that is the weirdest thing I’ve ever seen.

Is Kerry stepping off the plantation?

Comment by Combotechie
2014-02-15 11:05:58

An Arab guy pointed out to me some time ago that in this country when the word “Arab” is used it is usually followed by the word “terrorist”.

Arab terrorist - these two words have been connected in our psyche. IMO this is an example of how we’ve been conditioned to think.

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 08:22:06

U.S. hockey beats Russia in overtime shootout.

Comment by Ronnie'sLeftMango
2014-02-15 08:37:28

Do we get a medal ?

Sounds like the fix was in by NBC who needs some ratings.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 10:29:27

I have watched none of the Olympics and don’t plan to.

I might if it was about the sports rather than social engineering.

NBC and Bob Costas can stick it.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-02-15 11:22:02

Amen, brothah! Testify!

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 14:53:22

“NBC and Bob Costas can stick it.”

Old red eye?

 
Comment by oxide
2014-02-15 14:56:06

Well Bob Costas isn’t hosting the Olympics. Matt and Meredith are filling in for Bob, who was sidelined with a double eye infection. Please make fun of that, if that is the type of thing that turns you on.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 15:21:29

Who’s Matt? Meredith who?

I don’t know who you are referring to. A pair of halfwits over at MSNBC maybe?

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Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 08:28:09

$1000+ per square foot, because “it’s different there”

http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Price-Point-995-000-5236612.php

Comment by rms
2014-02-15 08:43:47

“…includes a doorman/concierge…”

Oh gawd dammit, Martha where’s my checkbook? Now!!

 
 
Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 09:32:04

They’re not making any more Toronto

“Toronto’s condo boom has given investors plenty of reason to be excited over the past decade, with prices for new units soaring by more than 70 per cent, according to RealNet Canada Inc. But the recent news is not so encouraging: Sales volumes have declined for two years, a backlog of 18,000 unsold units hangs over the market, and price growth has flattened, even as new condo projects continue to pour onto the market.

The plethora of construction cranes that populate Toronto’s skyline has made the city a prime exhibit for those who believe Canada’s real estate market is in bubble territory and a crash is imminent. But on the other side of the debate are buyers like Mr. Habibzadeh and developers like CentreCourt Developments, the company behind Core Condos. They are betting their own money on the theory that the market is still far from saturation.

If they’re wrong, the implications would extend far beyond Toronto. In December, the Bank of Canada singled out the market when outlining risks to the national economy and warned that “a sharp correction in the condominium market could spread to other segments of the housing market” with “significant repercussions on the real economy.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/aggressive-development-the-building-and-selling-of-a-toronto-condo-tower/article16910442/

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 10:21:50

There is no shortage of land around Toronto. Hundred of miles of land.

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 10:53:52

The GTA is really G, isn’t it?

 
Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:24:55

I am pretty sure Toronto is on the shore of Lake Ontario.

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 11:42:32

Golden Horseshoe baby! Because everybody loves being parked in traffic on the QEW or 401.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 14:10:49

“Toronto is on the shore of Lake Ontario”

That explains how I can get there by boat!

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 10:49:46

“They’re not making any more Toronto”

But they are making 300 acre cities with a mosque that has a steeple on it.

U.S. Army Builds ‘Fake City’ in Virginia to Practice Military Occupation

Martial law training? 300 acre town includes sports stadium, school, underground subway

Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
February 14, 2014

The U.S. Army has built a 300 acre ‘fake city’ complete with a sports stadium, bank, school, and an underground subway in order to train for unspecified future combat scenarios.

The recently opened site is located in Virginia and was built at a cost of $96 million dollars, taking just two years to complete.

While the city was ostensibly built to prepare U.S. troops for the occupation of cities abroad, some will undoubtedly fear that the real intention could be closer to home. Although the site includes a mosque, the town looks American in every other way, with signs in English.

The fact that, as the Telegraph reports, “The subway carriages even carry the same logo as the carriages in Washington DC,” could suggest that the site was built to double both as a foreign city and a mock domestic town.

According to Colonel John P. Petkosek, “This is the place where we can be creative, where we can come up with solutions for problems that we don’t even know we have yet….This is where we’ll look at solutions for the future–material solutions and non-material solutions…anything from how you’re going to operate in a subterranean environment to how you dismount a Humvee to avoid an IED strike.”

The increasing demonization of domestic political groups as extremists has prompted numerous scenarios where commentators have suggested that U.S. Army and National Guard personnel could be needed to quell civil unrest.

In 2012, an academic study about the future use of the military as a peacekeeping force within the United States written by a retired Army Colonel depicted a shocking scenario in which the U.S. Army is used to restore order to a town that has been seized by Tea Party “insurrectionists”.

The study dovetailed with a leaked U.S. Army manual which revealed plans for the military to carry out “Civil Disturbance Operations” during which troops would be used domestically to quell riots, confiscate firearms and even kill Americans on U.S. soil during mass civil unrest.

The manual also describes how prisoners will be processed through temporary internment camps under the guidance of U.S. Army FM 3-19.40 Internment/Resettlement Operations, which outlines how internees would be “re-educated” into developing an “appreciation of U.S. policies” while detained in prison camps inside the United States.

Fort Hood soldiers are also being taught by their superiors that Christians, Tea Party supporters and anti-abortion activists represent a radical terror threat, mirroring rhetoric backed by the Department of Homeland Security which frames “liberty lovers” as domestic extremists.

Last year, former Navy SEAL Ben Smith warned that the Obama administration is asking top brass in the military if they would be comfortable with disarming U.S. citizens, a litmus test that includes gauging whether they would be prepared to order NCOs to fire on Americans.

During a recent Ohio National Guard exercise, second amendment proponents were portrayed as domestic terrorists as part of a mock disaster drill.

Infowars.com
February 15, 2014

A mock small town Christian steeple sits among the martial law training infrastructure.

The federal government has been in a big hurry to build a 300 acre city in just 2 years at an expense of $96 million in taxpayer funds in order to train the military “for problems we don’t even know we have yet.” If you’ve been following Infowars, you’ve seen us document over and over again what they’re training for with a detailed American city like this: martial law within this nation.

And now, The Telegraph is confirming the construction of this small town military simulation that will be used to train troops for combat against the American people.

Unlike the urban training centers we’ve seen before where the buildings are just empty concrete block structures or even plywood facades, this town is very detailed with glass windows, handicap parking signs, speed limit signs, logos on the subway that match the DC metro, and even a small town steeple (that was originally claimed to be a mosque). They’ve made it clear in manual after manual, scenario after scenario that they perceive the enemy as gun owners, limited government conservatives, libertarians and Christians.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 09:55:48

Wouldn’t it be great if we had an administration that encouraged businesses to hire workers and made it easier for people to start their own businesses?

But those people don’t vote like the free sh*t army.

—————

A Mandate for Layoffs
New York Post | February 14, 2014 | Editorial Board

The White House has just made a damning admission about ObamaCare:

Its employer mandate creates an incentive for businesses to lay off workers. That’s not how the administration puts it, of course. But a new rule requiring certain businesses to certify — on pain of perjury — that layoffs they make are not ObamaCare-related rests on this assumption.

As Andrew McCarthy notes on National Review Online, there’s nothing illegal about laying off employees over tax-related consequences. And as Chief Justice John Roberts has ruled, ObamaCare is a tax.

Yet any business that won’t certify that its layoffs are due to “bona fide business reasons” won’t be eligible for what the IRS calls “transition relief” — i.e., the extra year of the mandate waiver. And the agency has set out a list of what it considers legitimate excuses. Basically, as long as it isn’t because of ObamaCare, a business can lay off as many people as it wants.

Comment by CharlieTango
2014-02-15 10:22:51

When ACA costs force you to downsize you lose your waiver and your ACA costs go up. A real lose/lose

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 10:37:04

ObamaCare also is causing the big slowdown in the housing industry.

Or has no one noticed? Seems so, as no one reports the correlation.

Tens of millions paying significantly more for worsening healthcare and healthcare coverage.

Nah, ObamaCare has nothing to do with the slowdown in housing.

Or in retail sales, for that matter.

Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:27:00

Realtors get Obamacare??

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 12:46:26

“as long as it isn’t because of ObamaCare, a business can lay off as many people as it wants.”

Love this! In other words, all layoffs are the fault of the private sector.

Viva ObamaCare! Viva Che Obama!

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 10:02:57

I think that many employees have come to realize that today’s unions are so corrupt and lawless that they are actually a far worse deal than what businesses offer.

And since unions contribute 99-1 to democrats and union members have NO say in how their dues are used - southerns do want to help the anti-2nd amendment zombies.

——————

Loss at Volkswagen plant upends union’s plan for U.S. South
Yahoo Finance - 1/15/2014

CHATTANOOGA, Tennessee (Reuters) - In a stinging defeat that could accelerate the decades-long decline of the United Auto Workers, Volkswagen AG workers voted against union representation at a Chattanooga, Tennessee plant, which had been seen as organized labor’s best chance to expand in the U.S. South.

The loss, 712 to 626, capped a sprint finish to a long race and was particularly surprising for UAW supporters, because Volkswagen had allowed the union access to the factory and officially stayed neutral on the vote, while other manufacturers have been hostile to organized labor.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 10:32:51

This is a huge win!

Seems like the Chattanoogan populace has seen what happened to Detroit and Cleveland and decided to just say no.

Good for them and their community.

Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:28:17

Which is very surprising since all of the Chattanooga police belong to a union.

Comment by the zima guy
2014-02-15 12:03:05

May be it’s the union’s strong ties to Democrats…..now even the unions support bringing new immigrant workers…I mean it’s clusterf….

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Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 12:06:13

Why labor unions can’t win
By Rick Newman - The Exchange - 2/15/2014

They’re not dead yet. But labor unions have become so unpopular they can’t organize workers even with the blessing of employers.

Many Americans blamed the collapse of the U.S. auto industry in 2009 on unions, which is a bit unfair, because the Detroit automakers suffered from overcapacity, mismanagement, strategic mistakes and many other problems, in addition to overly generous union contracts. Yet the animosity directed toward unions and the two automakers that received federal bailouts–GM and Chrysler–marked a new low for unions, from which they still haven’t recovered, as these polling numbers from Gallup show:

As part of 2009 bankruptcy negotiations for General Motors and Chrysler, for instance, the UAW agreed to reduced pay for younger workers and far fewer job guarantees. Union detractors in Tennessee even point out that Volkswagen tends to pay its non-union employees better than GM pays UAW workers 150 miles away.

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Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 12:19:21

Having worked for GM ( not as a union worker ), unions were not the reason GM’s market share went from 50% in 1970 to 20% in 2000.

/only takes around 20 hours to build car today, so saving $20/hr is only going to really knock $400 off of that $40k car.

 
Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 12:35:07

+ insane pensions + truly insane work rules + building crap quality + strikes + sabotage + can’t fire terrible workers taking drugs + etc.

But you knew all that already - didn’t you?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-02-15 10:35:57

Does inflation help or hurt the economy? Some data points:

1) MIT’s Billion Prices Project: http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/ - shows that over five years, prices are up about 12 percent.

2) Wages over that same period are down a few percent (For whites and Asians, it’s about -3 percent. For blacks and Hispanics, it’s down about 10 percent): PDF - see page 13 actual, page 5 numbered: http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p60-245.pdf

So - that means a lot of people are getting squeezed hard. Inflation is going to speed up economic activity? It has consistently averaged a little over 2 percent over the past five years. The citizenry - the engine of the economy - is naturally going to draw down their spending in the face of reduced spending power.

Combine that with real wage reductions, and you have a reason why people are getting squeezed. Add on top of that relentless debt pushing (Wells Fargo again getting into subprime, backed by the government, which is nothing but preying on the population to enrich Wall Street when the inevitable foreclosures occur; and student loan debt which is preying on young people), skyrocketing healthcare costs and you have the makings of real economic difficulty.

And the government and central bank’s response to this? Operation Borrow And Print. Operation Firehose Money To Wall Street.

I’ve been really curious about what kind of impact QE and manipulations of the money supply would have on the economy. Really in rubber meets the road type measures: purchasing power, wages, employment.

Employment! The labor participation rate has been going down constantly since the start of the financial crisis. There are those who suggest that it’s retiring baby boomers driving that - but it’s quite a coincidence that the trend changes right at the start of the financial crisis. Did they all just start reaching retirement age then? The why of the declining labor participation rate far from settled. And remember - even though Boomers are retiring… there are new workers who should be entering the labor force to replace them, holding the participation rate relatively steady. There has not been some giant birth-dearth in the US.

QE has been very good to Wall Street. It’s helped politicians with boosting property taxes. It’s doubtless been really good to the friends and family of the policy makers.

There might be a change as a result of the election. The problem with elections is that the system is heavily captured. Only candidates who can raise big money can make it through the primary system. Leading to this problem: http://i.imgur.com/anQqce8.jpg

If all the government and central bank will do is Operation Borrow And Print, the trendlines are not looking promising for the current crop of politicians.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-02-15 10:50:50

The labor participation rate of oldsters has been going up, not down.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2014-02-15 11:05:03

They’ll die off, eventually.

 
Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 11:30:07

The Target by my office is fully staffed during the day by employees 60+.

 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-02-15 10:59:16

The Federal Reserve is like a tie worn to an interview. If it’s a yellow tie with blinking LEDs, a crude slogan and a picture of a naked lady, it will prevent you from getting the job.

If, on the other hand, the tie is a crisp blue Brooks Brothers, it won’t get you the job. Other factors will.

The mistake the Fed has made is that because it can screw the economy up (crude tie), it also thinks it can then do the opposite and improve it (blue tie).

 
Comment by Anon In DC
2014-02-15 11:01:54

Good news if you ask me. The workers at Chattanooga Volkswagon plant rejected unionizing, though the vote was close. They seem to understand reality better than the union and Democrats and that $17 per hour jobs in Tennessee are better than $10 per day jobs in Mexico.

Here’s comment from a NYT editorial last week agitating for an increase in the minimum wage. Poster said it better than I could have.

People harking back to the halcyon days are overlooking a couple of hard truths:

As others have pointed out, the post-war middle-class prosperity blip in the United States was the result of geopolitical circumstances unlikely to repeat.

Second, the global and US populations have burgeoned significantly since then, while productivity has made labor worth far less.

Supply and demand, baby. Human beings are a dime-a-dozen commodity and are being paid as such, even right here in the USA. But those of us who propose incentives to refrain from reproducing, instead of the incentives to reproduce that are built into our tax code and societal mores, still are looked upon as ogres.

We are at 7 billion and forecast to be 10 billion by 2050. Excess capacity in the human labor pool is growing exponentially yet people still believe there is a magical way to make it more valuable.. it’s quite irrational. We have bred ourselves into a serf class. 10 billion people will be competing for the bare basics of food and shelter, not upward mobility or career satisfaction. Even in America. Do the math.

That said, I do believe corporations and the wealthy should pay vastly more than they do in taxes and wages — I’ve nothing against trying to equalize the burden but the sad fact is, every human being born in the past 40 years and in the future is not entitled to, nor likely to achieve, the standard of living a few million lucky Americans enjoyed in the latter 20th century.

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 11:12:08

Supply and demand, baby. Human beings are a dime-a-dozen commodity and are being paid as such, even right here in the USA. But those of us who propose incentives to refrain from reproducing, instead of the incentives to reproduce that are built into our tax code and societal mores, still are looked upon as ogres.

We are at 7 billion and forecast to be 10 billion by 2050. Excess capacity in the human labor pool is growing exponentially yet people still believe there is a magical way to make it more valuable.. it’s quite irrational. We have bred ourselves into a serf class.

Yup.

 
Comment by Anon In DC
2014-02-15 11:14:37

And this is money quote:
“…sad fact is, every human being born in the past 40 years and in the future is not entitled to, nor likely to achieve, the standard of living a few million lucky Americans enjoyed in the latter 20th century.”

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 11:24:45

Some of us are prepared for this. And recognize that everything has its opportunity cost, and that the opportunity cost of buying overpriced housing is too great to give up what else we would have to go without to pay for it.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 11:54:55

World population to peak by 2055
Published: Monday, 9 Sep 2013 | Kiran Moodley | Assistant Producer, CNBC.com

The world population will peak at 8.7 billion people in 2055 and then decline to 8 billion by 2100, according to new research by Deutsche Bank.

“The world is approaching a major turning point in its demographic trajectory and we think that the shift is likely to be sooner and sharper than mainstream projections suggest,” said Deutsche’s global strategist, Sanjeev Sanyal.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 15:36:23

Watch for global housing prices to really crater once the reality of the global population bubble peak sinks in.

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-02-15 12:50:34

That said, I do believe corporations and the wealthy should pay vastly more than they do in taxes and wages

In the end, it is always PEOPLE that pay taxes.

The fallacy of the corporate tax is that it really a tax on the shareholders. So having a corporate tax at all is really just another way of saying that a little old lady with ten shares of IBM should be taxes the same on her share of the corporate earnings as the corporate CEO who has millions of shares. It is flat-out ridiculous when you think about it, unless you are a flat-taxer.

In reality, all corporations should be treated like LLCs for tax purposes: the income flows through, and each shareholder reports their share of both the income and the deductions.

This would allow us to require that the billionaires pay their fare share for a change.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-02-15 14:55:32

The fallacy of the corporate tax is that it really a tax on the shareholders.

That presumes that all profits are handed over to shareholders in the form of dividends. That is not the case. As we all know, corporations are hoarding cash, and only giving a fraction of profits to shareholders. If you want to make the case the dividends should be deductible from corporate profits, so they don’t get taxed twice, I won’t disagree.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-02-15 17:13:31

That presumes that all profits are handed over to shareholders in the form of dividends.

No—I’m arguing that the law should be changed such that they are taxed in the same manner as an S-corp, or an LLC.

S-corps and LLCs already work this way; in those types of entities, all income is passed through to the shareholders, in prorated portions based on their percentage of ownership. The shareholders then are required to include this income on their returns. They also get the deductions passed through to them in the same manner, and can deduct them on their returns.

This allows for the income generation by the corporation to be paid in DIFFERENT tax brackets by poor vs wealthy shareholders. The current scheme forces poor and wealthy shareholders to pay tax at the same rate: the corporate rate.

In this scheme, dividends would be tax-free, as the shareholder has already paid their share of tax on the income that generated the dividend.

This approach would produce a FAR more fair tax result for Romney and me, when we both own shares of the same corporation.

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Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 13:12:52

“They seem to understand reality better than the union and Democrats and that $17 per hour jobs in Tennessee are better than $10 per day jobs in Mexico.”

Very well said. It’s interesting that most pro-union people are also anti-offshoring. Many fail to realize you can’t have both simultaneously. If you have unions, jobs will be offshored - or companies will go out of business.

Either way, the jobs disappear.

Chattanoogans appear to understand this, and voted in their own best interest. Which is anti-union.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-02-15 14:47:50

If you have unions, jobs will be offshored - or companies will go out of business.

They get offshored, union or not. Pretty much every single IT job that’s been offshored was non-union. Call centers are typically non union, as are most back office jobs.

Companies don’t offshore to avoid going out of business, they offshore to maximize profits. If they were offshoring to avoid unions, they would all relocate to the “right to work” south.

As for the non union VW plant in Tennessee, it will eventually close, and its production will be transferred to Puebla, Mexico, where workers are paid 1/10 of what the non union boys and girls in Tennessee are getting.

 
 
Comment by tj
2014-02-15 20:31:39

Poster said it better than I could have.

the poster is clueless.

As others have pointed out, the post-war middle-class prosperity blip in the United States was the result of geopolitical circumstances unlikely to repeat.

a myth promulgated by the left. prosperity wasn’t because of ‘geopolitical circumstances’.

Second, the global and US populations have burgeoned significantly since then, while productivity has made labor worth far less.

he’s clueless. he’s trying to say that increased production has made ‘things’ abundant and therefore worth less, and so labor becomes worth less. he has it backwards. he simply doesn’t understand economics. it works just the opposite way he thinks.

Human beings are a dime-a-dozen commodity

not ones with skills.

But those of us who propose incentives to refrain from reproducing, instead of the incentives to reproduce that are built into our tax code and societal mores, still are looked upon as ogres.

he must think a tribe of indians could have built a moon rocket.

the more people there are, the more great things can be done. that is, if they work. if people don’t work, it won’t matter what the population is, the economy will grind to halt. he doesn’t know what the population limit is, he just wants us to think he knows.

he SHOULD be looked on as an ogre.

Excess capacity in the human labor pool is growing exponentially yet people still believe there is a magical way to make it more valuable.. it’s quite irrational.

it’s irrational to him because he doesn’t understand how labor becomes valuable.

We have bred ourselves into a serf class.

no, we’ve taxed and regulated ourselves into a serf class.

10 billion people will be competing for the bare basics of food and shelter, not upward mobility or career satisfaction.

the problem is that government has ended the competition for a large swath of people. now those people are becoming a drag on the economy.

That said, I do believe corporations and the wealthy should pay vastly more than they do in taxes and wages

of course he does. he’s not one of them. he’s a likely recipient. he’s a big government boy.

I’ve nothing against trying to equalize the burden but the sad fact is, every human being born in the past 40 years and in the future is not entitled to, nor likely to achieve, the standard of living a few million lucky Americans enjoyed in the latter 20th century.

not with people like him running the show they won’t. he basks in his own immorality, and shows it off as intellectualism. he’s a dumbbell. he wants to take what others have earned. he thinks it’s justified. what he wants will just make everything worse than it already is.

Comment by mathguy
2014-02-16 05:16:03

tj i agree almost entirely with you except for you got it wrong about post wwII . It was a huge boon to the US for about 15 years to haev the only intact industry in the world…

Comment by tj
2014-02-16 06:31:22

i don’t disagree that having our industry intact wasn’t beneficial. it was. very.

the myth part is that we prospered because no one else could compete. that’s wrong. we prospered because of our industry with tremendous production. the important part to understand is that we’d have been even better off if the rest of the world could have produced also.

yes, there wouldn’t have been near the disparity. we wouldn’t have ‘won’ by near the margins that we did in productivity. but prospering isn’t about bragging rights. it’s about efficient production. the whole world would have prospered if it would have been left alone to produce. we would have been better off without the war. so would everyone else on earth. but hitler DID need to be stopped.

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 11:44:54

“Forward”

Homeless and living in Camden, N.J.

Drugs, freezing temperatures and random attacks in the middle of the night. Camden’s homeless share what it’s like to live in the nation’s poorest and most dangerous city.

By Blake Ellis
Last updated
February 12 2014 07:58 PM ET

‘A place to call home’

Name: Aaron Howe
Age: 39

Aaron Howe is the “mayor” of one of Camden, N.J.’s “tent cities.” Though there was no formal vote, he has taken charge of gathering supplies, like food, clothing and propane from local aid organizations and distributing them among residents. He also sets the rules and decides who’s allowed to stay and who needs to go.

Howe arrived in the tent city two years ago after his 18-year-old trucking business collapsed as a result of the financial crisis.

“It’s just a place to call home until you get out of here,” he says.

Watch: Braving the cold in Camden’s tent city

Living conditions are far from safe, however, and some homeless people in nearby tent cities are known for picking fights.

“I was pistol-whipped and everything else. They fractured my skull,” he said. “There are guys out here who have guns, there’s guys who have baseball bats, there’s guys who have rods with spikes sticking out of them — it’s just a matter of knowing who to watch out for.”

NEXT: ‘I hate to lose’

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/pf/2014/02/12/homeless-camden/ - 42k -

Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 11:57:30

Another 50 year democrat controlled city that has insane public unions and has instituted every liberal utopian regulation ever dreamed…

See Detroit, Cleveland, Philly, Newark, Chicago, Buffalo for other examples…

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2014-02-15 13:03:16

So what’s your suggested solution?

Or are you just going to use this as an opportunity to turn it into a critical remark of a situation without offering a better way of handling the situation?

Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 13:26:52

A few ideas if a NJ really wanted to turn around Camden:

Declare bankruptcy
Ban all public union and remove all legacy costs
Institute school choice and vouchers
20 years of no state income tax
All gun control laws revoked forever. Shall issue concealed weapons permits.
Empowerment of real neighborhood watches with firearm training
Only property owners who pay more in taxes than they receive in public funds may vote in city elections
Ban section 8 money in the city
You must work for city (picking litter, etc) for 2 days/week for your SNAP and welfare benefits. And you will be tested for drugs.

And watch the place turn around.

There is a reason why Camden prospered at one time. It was right across the river from Philly. Has a great port. Along major land transportation lines. Plenty of water and electricity.

And the funny thing to turn Camden around? It doesn’t take billions to do it.

But these solutions would take power away from the progressives/socialists and remove free cheese from the free sh*t army - so it will never happen.

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Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 12:01:15

Hope and Change

Photogallery of junkies and street life in Hunts Point, South Bronx:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/arnade/sets/72157627894114489/

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 12:16:01

It’s Lola!!!!

Comment by overpaid government contractor
2014-02-15 12:58:08
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 21:16:11

That’s him/her! It’s Lola!

Any photos of Liberace?

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 13:01:07

Lola in the Bronx!

Sounds like a Jackie Chan movie.

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 12:44:47

Just in case anyone needs some visual brain rinse after viewing the street life in Hunts Point.

The Squad | Miami Dolphins Cheerleaders
http://www.dolphinscheerleaders.com/the-squad - 45k -

 
Comment by rms
2014-02-15 13:45:19

“Photogallery of junkies and street life…”

According to Goldman Sachs those under-served consumers represent pent-up demand. Got credit?

Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 14:21:41

Everyone of them will soon qualify for $750,000 mortgages guaranteed by the US Government…

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 12:15:08

Homeless college students seek shelter during breaks

By Blake Ellis @blakeellis3 December 10, 2013: 3:49 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
They may have dorm rooms to sleep in during the school year, but many college students are technically homeless — with no place to call home when classes aren’t in session.

Jessie McCormick, a senior at Aquinas College in Grand Rapids, Mich., has been homeless since running away right before her senior year of high school. Financial aid covers about 85% of her tuition and housing, and odd jobs that pay minimum wage, like helping out at the bookstore and setting up special events, pay for the rest.

McCormick was shocked to learn, however, that her housing isn’t covered during campus breaks. Instead, she must pay a fee of $12 to $24 a night (depending how far in advance the request is made), which she can’t always afford. Over Christmas, the school shuts down completely and no one can stay on campus — not even for a fee.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/12/10/pf/college/homeless-college-students/ - 63k -

Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 12:30:04

Hmmmm - so if I can convince my kids to run away from home they can get 85% of her tuition and housing covered???

YMCA? Fraternities/sororities usually rent out rooms over breaks/summers. Campsites? Do you have ANY FRIENDS where you can crash? If not - make some.

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-02-15 13:00:05

Patience, Mr. Howe.

Never fear, Big Government is here! The government cavalry is on its way, with food stamps and ObamaCare in hand!

A shame you don’t have a job. You’d have a job, if it weren’t for the private sector.

 
Comment by rms
2014-02-16 03:07:51

“Name: Aaron Howe”

No gaunt look yet, e.g., phat face.

 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 14:07:55

Wholesale Savings Confiscation, Enforced Redistribution, and the Decline of the European Saver

http://tinyurl.com/l684enx

This is “Progressivism” when self-appointed elites take from the producer, keep a percentage, and give to the FSA.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 15:16:12

Government Lays Groundwork To Confiscate Your 401k and IRA: “This Is Happening”

Mac Slavo
SHTFplan.com
February 14, 2014

This morning Reuters obtained a leaked proposal disclosing that European Union officials are looking for new and innovative ways to fund their immense debt levels.

As noted by Zero Hedge, they’re no longer turning exclusively to central bankers to simply print more money as needed. Because last year’s bank bail-in forcing the confiscation of funds from average depositors in Cyprus worked so well, EU regulators and bankers have determined that they’ll use a similar method to fund their future endeavors.

In a nutshell, and in Reuters’ own words, “the savings of the European Union’s 500 million citizens could be used to fund long-term investments to boost the economy and help plug the gap left by banks since the financial crisis, an EU document says.”

The solution? “The Commission will ask the bloc’s insurance watchdog in the second half of this year for advice on a possible draft law “to mobilize more personal pension savings for long-term financing”, the document said.”

Mobilize, once again, is a more palatable word than, say, confiscate.

This is what happens when governments run out of money.

But if you think this is limited to just Europe, then consider the words of President Barack Obama in his recent State of the Union address.

For all intents and purposes, a similar groundwork is being laid right here in America.

They’ve already taken over the health care industry… why not nationalize our retirement savings while they’re at it?

(Reprinted with permission from Sovereign Man. You can read the full analysis here.)

This is basically the offer that the President of the United States floated last night.

And like an unctuously overgeled used car salesman, he actually pitched Americans on loaning their retirement savings to the US government with a straight face, guaranteeing “a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in. . .”

This is his new “MyRA” program. And the aim is simple– dupe unwitting Americans to plow their retirement savings into the US government’s shrinking coffers.

We’ve been talking about this for years. I have personally written since 2009 that the US government would one day push US citizens into the ‘safety and security’ of US Treasuries.

Back in 2009, almost everyone else thought I was nuts for even suggesting something so sacrilegious about the US government and financial system.

But the day has arrived. And POTUS stated almost VERBATIM what I have been writing for years.

The government is flat broke. Even by their own assessment, the US government’s “net worth” is NEGATIVE 16 trillion. That’s as of the end of 2012 (the 2013 numbers aren’t out yet). But the trend is actually worsening.

In 2009, the government’s net worth was negative $11.45 trillion. By 2010, it had dropped to minus $13.47 trillion. By 2011, minus $14.78 trillion. And by 2012, minus $16.1 trillion.

Here’s the thing: according to the IRS, there is well over $5 trillion in US individual retirement accounts. For a government as bankrupt as Uncle Sam is, $5 trillion is irresistible.

They need that money. They need YOUR money. And this MyRA program is the critical first step to corralling your hard earned retirement funds.

At our event here in Chile last year, Jim Rogers nailed this right on the head when he and Ron Paul told our audience that the government would try to take your retirement funds:

I don’t know how much more clear I can be: this is happening. This is exactly what bankrupt governments do. And it’s time to give serious, serious consideration to shipping your retirement funds overseas before they take yours.

As former Congressman Ron Paul notes, the government will stop at nothing.

“They’ll use force and they’ll use intimidation and they’ll use guns, because you can’t challenge the State and you can’t challenge the State’s so-called right to control the money,” warns Paul. “It’s already indicated that they will confiscate funds and they will [confiscate] pension funds.”

This didn’t just happen over night. The move to make this reality has been going on for quite some time. The first time it was mentioned publicly in any official capacity was at a 2010 Congressional hearing:

Democrats in the Senate on Thursday held a recess hearing covering a taxpayer bailout of union pensions and a plan to seize private 401(k) plans to more “fairly” distribute taxpayer-funded pensions to everyone.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa), Chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee heard from hand-picked witnesses advocating the infamous “Guaranteed Retirement Account” (GRA) authored by Theresa Guilarducci.

In a nutshell, under the GRA system government would seize private 401(k) accounts, setting up an additional 5% mandatory payroll tax to dole out a “fair” pension to everyone using that confiscated money coupled with the mandated contributions. This would, of course, be a sister government ponzi scheme working in tandem with Social Security, the primary purpose being to give big government politicians additional taxpayer funds to raid to pay for their out-of-control spending.

You’d think that such an idea would be immediately dismissed by the American public, but it has only gained steam since, as evidenced by a 2012 hearing held at the U.S. Labor Department:

The hearing, held in the Labor Department’s main auditorium, was monitored by NSC staff and featured a line up of left-wing activists including one representative of the AFL-CIO who advocated for more government regulation over private retirement accounts and even the establishment of government-sponsored annuities that would take the place of 401k plans.

“This hearing was set up to explore why Americans are not saving as much for their retirement as they could,” explains National Seniors Council National Director Robert Crone, “However, it is clear that this is the first step towards a government takeover. It feels just like the beginning of the debate over health care and we all know how that ended up.”

…Such “reforms” would effectively end private retirement accounts in America, Crone warns.

A few years ago the government of the United States of America nationalized nearly 1/6th of our economy when they took over the health care system with forced mandates. In the process they essentially took control of $1.6 trillion in yearly industry revenues.

But that’s nothing compared to private savings. The total amount of retirement assets in America, including 401k, IRA and savings accounts is around $21 trillion. With our national debt coincidentally approaching the same, the government sees big money and potentially a way out of our country’s fiscal disaster.

This will start voluntarily with the MyRA and other state-sponsored programs. But when not enough Americans are making it their patriotic duty to turn over their funds to their government, they’ll mandate compliance with the stroke of a pen just as they did with thePatient Affordable Care Act.

And just like Obamacare it will be enforced by the barrel of a gun. Failure to comply will mean confiscation without recourse and prison time.

All they need now is a trigger.

And that trigger will likely come in the form of another stock market collapse. Wipe out Americans’ in a stock market crash and scare the heck out of them with more economic bad news, and millions of our countrymen will be all too willing to hand it over to Uncle Sam. Panic is a powerful motivator and what better way to get people on board than by threatening them with squalor and destitution in their old age if they don’t go along with it?

Government officials have been actively working to make this a reality for years. The Europeans are doing the same.

You can put your head in the sand or cover your ears and pretend this is not happening, but that won’t change the outcome.

They will take everything they can get their hands on.

Tags: domestic news, police state

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 15:51:30

They will get a lot of lead with the money they confiscate as they break their promises to the people. There will be more run-ins by people prone to violence against government - and I want a nonviolent revolution. But just the same, I will keep my guns and ammo (of course they are in the state of Arizona in a good hiding place and I have a legal residence, pay for my auto registration - Arizona plate - and pay state income taxes in Arizona).

Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 16:43:03

Make sure you don’t have any spent shells laying around in Cali. I don’t know what their laws are but they searched some dudes house in DC twice after his ex-wife told the “authorities” he had guns there. The second search turned up a spent shotgun shell and he is looking at 2 years.

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Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 17:19:59

I don’t take any guns or ammo into Cali. So far in my part of Orange County it’s far more safer than where I rented in the South Bay part of L.A.

Arizona is a gun-friendly state. I went to one gun show last year. I felt as though I was with my people for once.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 22:39:07

I’m guessing South Bay L.A. might be comparably “safe” to Richmond, CA, where we used to live. As in “not much.”

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-16 08:55:34

Yeah I think you are right, only because if you look at the demographics of the south bay, the asian population is high. Combine Asians and whites and you have a low crime rate.

 
 
 
Comment by Skroodle
2014-02-15 18:43:21

So how exactly is the government going to grab the 401k money invested in mutual funds without immediately ranking Wall Street?

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 19:01:30

Remember, the US government is connected with the IMF and European banksters. Wall Street is not as big as the international banksters - the “progressives.”

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Comment by 2banana
2014-02-15 14:14:10

The free sh*t army now needs incentives to get more free sh*t…

———————–

Welfare recipients given gift cards as incentive to go to the dentist
CBS News Harrisburg | 01/30/2014 | Chris Papst

Imagine going to the dentist for a free regular checkup, and getting a free $25 gift card in return. It’s happening right here in Pennsylvania, and taxpayers are paying for all of it. Every year, Pennsylvania spends $20 billion to provide medical care to low-income and disabled residents. But one of the biggest problems the state has is getting people to use those medical services for preventative care. Now a new program designed to address that problem has some people outraged. “I am upset.” Michelle Tonkin is seeing red thanks to a Walmart gift card, which she recently got in the mail. “I thought it was a joke at first. I really, really did,” explained Tonkin. Tonkin’s daughter, Molly, has an intellectual disability. For the last 20 years, she’s been on Gateway, a form of Medicaid.

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 15:39:44

The 200 day MA and 50 day MA of GLD shown for the two year period - why gold bulls are happy…

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GLD&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=e200%2Ce50&a=&c=

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 15:53:17

Gun Control Laws Push Connecticut Family to New Hampshire

http://tinyurl.com/m8z4txr

Comment by phony scandals
2014-02-15 17:35:45

“If you pass laws that people have no respect for and they don’t follow them, then you have a real problem.”

Untold Thousands Flout Gun Registration Law

February 10, 2014|
Dan Haar

Everyone knew there would be some gun owners flouting the law that legislators hurriedly passed last April, requiring residents to register all military-style rifles with state police by Dec. 31.

But few thought the figures would be this bad.

By the end of 2013, state police had received 47,916 applications for assault weapons certificates, Lt. Paul Vance said. An additional 2,100 that were incomplete could still come in.

That 50,000 figure could be as little as 15 percent of the rifles classified as assault weapons owned by Connecticut residents, according to estimates by people in the industry, including the Newtown-based National Shooting Sports Foundation. No one has anything close to definitive figures, but the most conservative estimates place the number of unregistered assault weapons well above 50,000, and perhaps as high as 350,000.

And that means as of Jan. 1, Connecticut has very likely created tens of thousands of newly minted criminals — perhaps 100,000 people, almost certainly at least 20,000 — who have broken no other laws. By owning unregistered guns defined as assault weapons, all of them are committing Class D felonies.

“I honestly thought from my own standpoint that the vast majority would register,” said Sen. Tony Guglielmo, R-Stafford, the ranking GOP senator on the legislature’s public safety committee. “If you pass laws that people have no respect for and they don’t follow them, then you have a real problem.”

The problem could explode if Connecticut officials decide to compare the list of people who underwent background checks to buy military-style rifles in the past, to the list of those who registered in 2013. Do they still own those guns? The state might want to know.

“A lot of it is just a question to ask, and I think the firearms unit would be looking at it,” said Mike Lawlor, the state’s top official in criminal justice. “They could send them a letter.”

An aggressive hunt isn’t going to happen, Lawlor said, but even the idea of letters is a scary thought considering thousands of people are now in an uncomfortable position. At the least, the legislature should reopen the registration period this year with an outreach campaign designed to boost the numbers.

It could be a tough sell. On Thursday night, Guglielmo heard from a constituent at a meeting in Ashford, who said most of his friends with military-style rifles such as AR-15s had not come forward.

“He made the analogy to prohibition,” Guglielmo said. “I said, ‘You’re talking about civil disobedience, and he said ‘Yes.’ ”

But it’s not just refusers. A reopened registration would help many who failed to come forward out of ignorance.

“There are a lot of people, they just do not know about this law,” said Scott Wilson, president of the 12,000-member Connecticut Citizens Defense League, a Second Amendment advocacy group. “There are people finding out now after the fact.”

The law was widely covered in the media and Wilson said his group sent information to its members. But gun owners can be an independent bunch.

Guglielmo, who voted against the sweeping gun control bill, said he intends to raise the concern at the next meeting of the public safety committee. Lawlor said Gov. Dannel P. Malloy’s administration is willing to talk about solutions.

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-02-15 18:13:39

I would not recognize any laws that violate my individual right to defend my life - whether from non-government thugs or from the thugernment themselves.

“I sold my gun at the gun show.”

“I lost all my gold in a boating accident.”

The real point is that no band of people no matter how large, has any right to say “we are the government and you must follow our laws.” There is no such thing as a social contract.

Our rights are natural rights, based on the metaphysics. Common sense is that we follow that “golden rule” and we have a right to self defense. The only proper force is retaliatory force. Of course this invalidates many wars in American history. Maybe not the war against Japan - but the dropping of the bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the internment of japanese-americans has haunted me for years even though I was born after those events.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-02-15 19:21:27

If you’re going to do business with a realtor, spend the $500 to have a private investigator perform a criminal background check on it.

You’ll be glad you did.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-02-15 22:40:44

Do you have any idea what percent of Realtor®s DON’T have a criminal history?

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-02-16 14:28:29

My guess is higher than 3%

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-02-16 14:31:50

(at the way things look to be headed the elected thugs will turn a lot more nonviolent v Oct I’m less activities into felonies so it’s not saying much. Gun owners in Connecticut for example.

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