Bits Bucket for February 16, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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How long will it be from now until when the Housing Bubble bottoms out?
Yes. Updated estimates please.. At what point is this second bubble going to pop again? Wife is getting itchy to improve living digs again, and I would prefer to wait and buy if its not too long.. otherwise.. renting an upgrade is what we are in for…
“…renting an upgrade is what we are in for…”
+1 In metro U.S., I’d say rent because the bottom is a long way down.
Metro U.S. is where most of the high paying jobs are and where renting is less expensive than buying. Mobility was key for my financial success since 2000. I am still mobile, although now a direct hire for a few years.
I’ve been direct hire since late 2006. It’s been lucrative but the options to develop untaxed income streams is limited. Third party/body-shop style employment? It’s limitless.
Soon you’ll be able to concealed carry in Ca!
The flip side of international labor market mobility plus desirable coastal areas with jobs is relatively higher housing costs compared to less desirable inland areas. And that was long the case before there was a ginormous housing bubble to boot. The Bubble merely exacerbated the fundamentals already in place.
After the terrible winter in east cost, one might expect migration to west cost…and the result will be skyrocketing prices… don’t be late…
galyen, skyrocketing house prices on the west coast will even expand the affordability of renting. You can rent places on the beach for under $2000 per month while beach houses a block away sell for several million dollars. As a high paid engineer in California you can have your cake and eat it too if you remind yourself that a roof over your head looks the same whether rented or owned.
You bag all your money and on retirement you cash in. There are a lot of nice places outside of the high tax California and high tax Hawaii. Even better, establish a residence in a low tax gun friendly state like Arizona and spend the hot months renting at Mendocino or Big Sur.
Yo Bill….
Have you ever considering changing up your moniker to Buckets O’ Cash?
Good idea H.A.
Buckets O’ Cash,
Google up fund TRAMX. If you were substantially underwater would you hold or sell?
“If you were substantially underwater” - in a crap shack or in the fund?
The fund’s expense ratio is kind of steep but it seems to have performed well the last five years 16.60% average annual gain - it must be a well-managed fund.
The demographics of Africa and the Middle East make it too risky for me. The two places have a high mortality rate and high birth rate, which by Harry Dent’s analysis, means very expensive to feed the youthful populations, as the young tend not to be producing but consuming.
They have to improve their health (extend the average lifespan into the 70s) and productivity before they join the first world.
“in a crap shack or in the fund?”
Fund man fund!
Obviously I bought it at the wrong time. My cost basis on it is 12.07.
You must have bought into it before ‘08. I see that in ‘09 it was in the $4 to $5 price range - if you had lots o’ cash back then you could have gone to town.
Speaking of which, I rebalanced my old company 401k again. I was so heavy into the T Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth fund (PABGX) that I first rebalanced $40,000 out of it into an old man’s fund (30 month-maturity, mostly AAA with a 2% yield).
i expect a deep correction anytime this year or next year. When that happens I will move $53,000 back into aggressive growth. If the correction does not happen I will be happy with the dividends.
Still in the selling mode of my former company stock - made so much gains and it’s hanging in by a thread above $30.
2009 is a good lesson. Many people had their cash tied up when it was too late. The problem is hindsight. For the S&P 500, it peaked in 2000 and it bottomed in three years with gradual drops. Then there was a 5 year runup through 2007 and it took only two years to bottom, with a huge drop.
It may have been difficult to time the bottoms but note on the other end you could be throwing a lot of moolah in after you see an inflection point on the bottom. And four years later start to build up cash. It might not be a lot of cash but it’s a nice feeling to have even 2% or 4% of your net worth to play with in stocks after you see the inflection happened.
“Soon you’ll be able to concealed carry in Ca!”
I wouldn’t count on it. California’s body politic doesn’t respect individual liberties, protection or meritocratic principals.
‘
“Soon you’ll be able to concealed carry in Ca!”
I wouldn’t count on it. California’s body politic doesn’t respect individual liberties, protection or meritocratic principals.’
I agree. Even the Republican legislature of California is far more “progressive” than any Democrat party legislature in the southern U.S. “Progressive” = “Mental Disease”
mathguy, i answered your post on yesterday’s blog. it’s not up yet, but you can check for it later.
tj,
Overall, yes it would have been better if all the worlds production was intact, but that’s not what the question was about. The fact is, jobs couldn’t be offshored, nor could things be imported. The rest of the world suffered, but it caused a high standard of living for US workers to be in demand to make everything…
The fact is, jobs couldn’t be offshored, nor could things be imported.
jobs could have always been ‘offshored’ if it were profitable to do so.
The rest of the world suffered, but it caused a high standard of living for US workers to be in demand to make everything…
you’re saying the same thing again. that we were better off because others couldn’t compete. that’s incorrect.
i’ll say this in a slightly different way. even IF we couldn’t have competed as well as the rest of the world if there had been no war, even IF we would have been in second or third place in production with the rest of the world.. our standard of living, our economy, would have been BETTER than it was after the war. it would have been better than the 1st we had after the war.
would you rather have had a higher standard of living in 3rd place with the rest of the world, or a lower standard of living in 1st place?
why not go for a 5 yr squat like many fb did- is that game over?
That only works in effed up places like Florida. From what I’ve seen in my neck of the woods, people get foreclosed and evicted in less than a year.
I wish I was a squatter. Squatters are my heroes.
There’s even a symbol for it, had no idea.
Intl Squatters Symbol
Looked it up during our one year squat in LV.
I don’t think it will happen until you see housing starts over 1.5MM for a little while, which could be late 2014/2015. Then add a year or two. Overall, I think the next correction will happen on a shorter interval that prior cycles, since the Fed accelerated the first part of this cycle with the ZIRP.
So, unless you live in a part of the country where it truly does cost less to own than rent (as a mathguy, you should be able to do the right math), AND you can buy a place that you want to live in through the next cycle (12-15+ years), I would say rent for now.
Prof, some homes in my hood that have been abandoned since we moved here are still sitting empty; some homes that were foreclosed are still not on the market.
It would be amazing if someone like NY Times could do a heat map of foreclosures/zombie houses. I think we’d all be surprised by how many are still out there.
I am two blocks from the Gulf of Mexico, and there’s a really nice house we figured out-of-staters owned… turns out it’s a foreclosure and it just came on the market for 4.4 million.
Muggy - do you have any idea of what homeowner’s insurance costs are these days in Pinellas County? Thx.
The persistence of that situation tends to dampen the rate of price reversion to normalcy.
Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
Thanks high school grad. Pimpin ain’t easy but somebody gotta do it.
Why would you assume she graduated from HS?
Good point, I guess I was being generous.
You do realize, don’t you, that Amy Hoax lives in her parents’ basement?
Her parents left her on the doorstep of a nice man named David Lereah.
Being tied up in a cage will never feel like flying free.
Drowning under the crushing weight of an underwater mortgage will never feel like financial independence.
Entirely depends on unknown factors such as what the PTB will do to keep things propped up. This is not a normal cyclical market being predicted, we are in unprecedented times of massive manipulation by the PTB.
Any answer is just a wild ass guess. That being said, I think bottoming out will coincide with the presidential election cycle. Any drop occurring will be reversed in the fall of 2015 to allow those in power a tailwind going into fall 2016. This is why I think the taper stuff and new mortgage rules are going in now. Air needs letting out of the balloon, but still enuf time to reverse course before 2016.
Reality has been suspended. To predict logical timing for this is to attribute skill and supernatural powers to our central planners. Historic irony would be well served if the wheels came off during the current Hoover administration however.
Back when TSHTF in 08 there were numerous threads including everyone’s estimate as to when a housing recovery would begin. Many posters speculated 2012/2013 would be the bottom.
It didn’t play out quite like anyone expected, but there were certainly substantial declines in value in the most bubbly areas.
One thing is clear, the PTB worked diligently to prevent a wholesale meltdown in value due to excessive inventory. Private equity, Blackrock, etc. took the place of the RTC from the 80’s.
I spoke to a colleague the other day who recently bought a house. He reported that the underwriting was extreme. He has substantial income and a lot of assets.
“like anyone expected…”
The irresponsibility of the Central Banks and Governments has been breathtaking. Still, it’s going to take decades of contraction to undo the bubble.
The irresponsibility of the Central Banks and Governments has been breathtaking. Still, it’s going to take decades of contraction to undo the bubble.
FWIW, it isn’t about irresponsibility.
We’re now living under an financial occupation similar to France when Hitler’s armies goose-stepped down the Champs-Élysées. The occupiers are busy sucking the Treasury dry while we argue about rent-or-buy. If they weren’t so greedy they could be content with their billions and let the economy adjust and expand, but sadly it isn’t in their nature. They’ll destroy it for everyone including themselves.
Wiki: The Scorpion and the Frog is an animal fable about a scorpion asking a frog to carry him across a river. The frog is afraid of being stung during the trip, but the scorpion argues that if it stung the frog, the frog would sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog agrees and begins carrying the scorpion, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the frog, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature. The fable is used to illustrate the position that the natural behaviour of some creatures is inevitable, no matter how they are treated and no matter what the consequences. It is also used to illustrate that a person (frog) is to blame for the trouble they are in if it was caused by associating with another (scorpion) they know to be no good.
Ultimately you and I are to blame, for being too lazy to drown the scorpion right off.
How was the underwriting “extreme?” Was it the amount of paperwork he had to provide, or the actual lending themselves like FICO, income etc.
Early 2012 was the tail end of the most recent local minimum, if you will. That was when prices barely touched the long-term (since ~1983) inflation trend. I’m not sure that comparisons to earlier than the early 80’s are valid. At the time there was a sea change in that interest rates dipped to single digits and two income households became the norm.
There’s the rub. To appreciate the magnitude of the bubble you have to look at before the bubble began in earnest, before 1983. Otherwise, you are using the bubble itself to gauge “normal” prices. The so-called sea change was the parabolic rise of credit.
The prices are already starting to decline.
Sounds like more intervention will be needed soon to stop that trend from continuing.
Did you buy the dip in long-term Treasury bonds?
February 13, 2014, 1:43 p.m. ET
Treasury Bonds Extend Price Gains After 30-Year Auction
By Min Zeng
U.S. Treasury bond prices got an extra boost Thursday from robust demand on a $16 billion sale of 30-year bonds.
The new 30-year bonds were sold at a yield of 3.69%, compared with 3.696% right before the sale. A lower yield suggests demand was stronger than dealers had anticipated.
Like Wednesday’s 10-year note auction, foreign investors led the buying. Indirect bid, a proxy gauge of demand by foreign investors, was 45.3%, higher than 40.7% from the past eight sales.
“It was an excellently bid auction,” said Tom di Galoma, co-head of fixed-income rates trading in New York at ED & F Man Capital Markets.
Traders said bond prices could perk up more now that this week’s $70 billion Treasury new notes and bonds auctions are out of the way.
In recent afternoon trading after the auction, the benchmark 10-year note was 16/32 higher, yielding 2.736%, according to Tradeweb. When bond prices rise, their yields fall.
Bond prices have strengthened earlier as disappointing data on consumer spending and jobless claims renewed concerns over economic growth and prompted investors to seek the safety of government debt.
The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. retail sales declined 0.4%, while economists expected a 0.1% drop. Separately, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 in the week ended Feb. 8.
The retail-sales data suggested “a soft start of the year for household consumption despite solid consumer confidence,” said Annalisa Piazza, an analyst at Newedge. The report “isn’t very encouraging as retail activity seems to have contracted at a core level,” Ms. Piazza said.
The U.S. data followed a report showing Australia’s jobless rate surged to the highest level in more than a decade, which has propped up Treasury bond prices.
…
Drop, Jobless Claims Increase
By Susanne Walker
Feb 13, 2014 2:16 PM PT
Treasuries rose for the first time in three days as U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in January by the most since June 2012 and initial claims for jobless benefits rose more than forecast last week.
U.S. government securities extended gains as the Treasury sold $16 billion of 30-year bonds at a yield of 3.690 percent, the lowest since August. Current 30-year yields dropped from almost the highest this month. Ten-year note yields after inflation, called real yields, were at almost a three-week high. The drop in retail sales amid inclement weather came as the Federal Reserve plans to keep reducing bond purchases.
“It’s going to be through the second quarter before you work your way out of jobs or growth deficit from adverse weather,” said Richard Gilhooly, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities, which the Fed named this week as one of its primary dealers. “The passage of the auction process means you see a retracement back to lower yields.”
…
“Retail sales unexpectedly fall.”
Some people very much expected this. Like me.
You can’t ask people to fork out several hundreds more monthly for healthcare coverage and not expect other sectors of the economy to take a hit.
Seems a good many economists out there have gold-plated plans and aren’t affected personally. Perhaps they need to walk a few miles in others’ moccasins.
You can’t ask people to fork out several hundreds more monthly for healthcare coverage and not expect other sectors of the economy to take a hit.
FWIW, to just how many people did that happen? Sure, we’ve all read the horror stories, but really, how many households were impacted that way? How many have signed up for Obamacare? IIRC, its been about 3 million. And of those who did, how many actually were dinged several hundred a month?
As for rising premiums, I think that those who get insurance at work have been impacted that way for deca. I’ve always dreaded “open enrollment” every year, wondering how much more I would have to pay vs. last year.
‘The sign-up rate for Obamacare health insurance might be dropping off steeply in February, as it becomes clear that total enrollment to date is likely 20 percent or so less than the 3.3 million touted by federal officials this week.’
‘Laszewski and other health-insurance industry observers said they expect that nationwide about 20 percent of people who have selected Obamacare plans did not make their first month’s premium payment, leaving them without insurance. Larger, publicly traded insurers told Laszewski that they are seeing rates approaching 30 percent unpaid, while smaller, newer insurers are seeing lower rates of around 15 percent, he said.’
‘The number of unpaid policies is chipping away at the number of people actually enrolled. For example, if the 20 percent estimate for unpaid policies is correct, that means that total Obamacare enrollment by Feb. 1 is closer to 2.6 million than to 3.3 million.’
“There is a lot of industry concern about how many people will actually pay,” said Michael Mahoney, senior marketing vice president at Web-based insurance broker GoHealthInsurance. He said the best rate of payments by Obamacare sign-ups that he’s aware of is “in the 90s,” while the worst rate is so low, “I’d rather not say. … It’s really bad.”
‘The companies with the highest rates of paid customers are ones who aggressively follow up with enrollees via email, phone calls, mailings and text messages to get them to make that initial month’s payment, he said. Among those not paying, the reasons range from an “unwillingness to pay” to “inability to pay,” he said.’
Laszewski and other health-insurance industry observers said they expect that nationwide about 20 percent of people who have selected Obamacare plans did not make their first month’s premium payment
Not surprising. I wonder what the geographical distribution of non payers is?
But yeah, health insurance and health care are expensive. Ours costs about 18K, which is more than what most lucky duckies make in a year.
Even those worthless “bronze plans” with their gigantic deductibles are too expensive. Unless something gives our healthcare system is going to collapse.
That’s the thing. There was a time (20 years ago) when we didn’t have a healthcare system. We had a free market, with regulations to ensure public health and safety. Everything was fine back then. If today’s system were to collapse, then we would just end up back where we were before, without a system, which worked better.
There was a time (20 years ago) when we didn’t have a healthcare system. We had a free market, with regulations to ensure public health and safety. Everything was fine back then.
Allow me to clarify what I meant by “collapse”.
We are in a situation where fewer and fewer people have access to healthcare due to not having decent insurance. As we move forward, more people will not get healthcare (except in the ER) because they can’t pay for it, even if they are insured (because of gigantic deductibles). We will eventually reach a tipping point where hospitals and other heathcare providers will cease to provide services as they will become insolvent and will close their doors. That is what I meant by “collapse”. And we most definitely had a healthcare system back then. It wasn’t the same as it is today, but we definitely had one.
I wasn’t referring to “Obamacare”, which is just a crummy band aid that forces the uninsured to purchase useless healthplans with $5000 deductibles.
As for things being hunky dory 20-30 years ago … you gotta be kidding. Costs were spiraling out of control back then, and the “solution” offered was HMOs and PPOs, which didn’t work. Back then PPOs were considered crummy insurance, today they are considered “gold plated”. Now the solution offered is the HD plan. And those started out with $1000 deductibles. Now we are talking about $5000 deductibles.
We have pretty much run out of tricks. All the new HD plans will do is make sure people don’t go see their doctor, until they are dying and in the ER.
The hospitals will not close their doors. They can operate just fine with a lot less profit than what they’re making now. Currently, they are operating solely as for-profit businesses, and making a LOT of money, which is only possible because the government has been forcing most people to buy health insurance for the past twenty years.
Case in point: I once went to the ER because my finger was badly smashed in a door. It was spurting blood, and swollen like a hot dog, and all the wrong colors, and very painful. They made me fill out paperwork for 30 minutes before they told me that the ER was not open right now. It would be open in 30 minutes. If I wanted to see a doctor, I had to walk in through a different door, which was the “24-hour ER”. The only purpose of taking my paperwork was to get paid for the visit, even though they weren’t open and didn’t provide any services, and they were sociopathically unconcerned about my finger.
The finger eventually healed, but it was lopsided for like six months. I even had to do physical therapy to make it move on command. I wonder if the outcome would have been better if I could have seen a doctor right away, rather than filling out bloody paperwork with the other hand for thirty minutes before walking in through the other door and starting the process anew.
So I call the insurance company and explain the situation, and I suggest that perhaps they should not pay for the “visit” to the closed ER. I also suggested that perhaps the physical therapy should be free, since the “ER” was the place that probably caused the need for said therapy. The insurance company didnt’ care. They were just like “oh, there’s a claim, so we paid it”. Then they raise their rates every year.
IMO, the problem is the mandated insurance.
OT/FWIW: The Lego Movie is awesome.
How young do you think would be too young for kids to see it?
Remember….. a period of price discovery has to occur before a market exhibits price recovery. This hasn’t happened yet and if it did, prices would be 65%-75% lower.
Remember this readers……… A “housing recovery” is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition. The losses are large at current prices. Do not be a buyer right now. And if you made the mistake of buying a house in the past 12 years, it’s like a holding a melting ice cube. The longer you hang on, the smaller it gets. Find a buyer for it quickly and get what you can get for it.
Caveat Emptor
Ventura, CA Housing Prices Dive 22% Year over Year
http://www.movoto.com/ventura-ca/market-trends/
Carmel Valley, CA Housing Prices Slip 10% Year over Year
http://www.movoto.com/carmel-valley-ca/market-trends/
Poway, CA Housing Prices Crater 23%; Inventory Skyrockets 35%
http://www.movoto.com/poway-ca/market-trends/
Encinatas, CA Housing Prices Turn Lower; Inventory Rises 14%
http://www.movoto.com/encinitas-ca/market-trends/
Who is Ronnie and why did he/she leave Mango?
if you knew where mango was, you might understand why ronnie left.
Are you suggesting it was a rash move?
no, i’m suggesting it might have been a good move.
Bubba was being sarcastic.
it wasn’t sarcasm, it was wit.
Are you suggesting it was a rash move?
LOL… Post of the day.
PS. you know that if his handle was ‘ronnie’srightmango’, that you wouldn’t have been able to ask your question.
No sh!t, Sherlock.
yes, i suppose i had that coming. i should have acknowledged that your other answer was clever too. i was just keeping with the same meaning as the first.
Lola would never admit that Ronnie was right or correct.
wouldn’t it be that ‘mango’ was right or correct?
“Ronnie’s right, Mango.”
Ask Lola, she loves Ronnie, always cryin in her mango juice about him.
Nowhere but up..
Greeley, Weld County housing market booms in 2013
“Greeley and Weld County’s housing market hit quite the rebound in the last year, with a decade-low of foreclosure sales, the highest median sales prices ever, and building permits tripling — bringing the area back to what would be considered normal in some cases”
““We’ll continue to see positive gains,” said Chalice Springfield, CEO and managing partner of Sears Real Estate in Greeley. “I tend to be pretty positive but, overall, there’s not many signs that would indicate, unless something tragic happened to our economy or our area in particular, I don’t anticipate the market is going to go anywhere but up.””
http://www.greeleytribune.com/news/ticker/10186628-113/percent-sales-market-greeley
Of the three cities in our mini metro area, Greeley is considered the least desirable because of crime, gangs, etc., which are relatively absent in neighboring Loveland and Ft. Collins. The WalMart near the University has a 24 hour security patrol in the parking lot, because of frequent shootings. I have also heard that store referred to by UNC (NC = Northern Colorado) students as “Wal-Martinez”.
When I worked at the now defunct HP Greeley site years ago, almost none of my coworkers lived in Greeley. The place was and still is considered undesirable.
How ’bout a Coal City plan?
“Gillette marches to its own beat when it comes to real estate price swings.
Wyoming is one of 10 states in which home prices are hitting their highest mark ever, but the city in coal country is on a slower growth path.
Not so in Gillette, where the most recent figures indicate much slower growth in a city that once defined housing shortages and high prices in Wyoming.”
For HA :
“Now he is the owner of a new home in Gillette, having benefited from a more level market when he and his wife relocated from Rapid City, S.D. The couple were happily surprised to be able to buy a new home for less than the cost of some of the older houses for sale in Gillette.”
http://trib.com/business/a388a2f6-8696-5f55-b637-e1006992a84e.html
Just keep in mind how freaking remote this place is. You east coasters can’t even begin to fathom it. The closest large metro area is Denver (unless you count Fort Collins/Loveland/Greeley as a “metro area”), about 400 miles away.
I know people who moved to much closer Laramie and Cheyenne and who couldn’t handle it, even though “cosmopolitan” Ft. Collins was only 45 minutes away.
That link is for our donkeys and other passers-by. It’s no great revelation to me.
As far as distance, who gives a crap about the “closest large mentro area”????
A certain portion of the population likes the things that are available in metropolitan areas. Others don’t. Such preferences don’t make for interesting discussion.
The reference to Wyoming reminds of a secretary at a company that I worked at back in the ’90s. She had moved from Wyoming to the Phoenix area and she was impressed by all the restaurants that she had to choose from when she wanted to eat out. She was probably referring to places like Chili’s and Olive Garden. That was worth a chuckle when I heard about it.
She was probably referring to places like Chili’s and Olive Garden.
Yup. I remember that there were only a few restaurants in Laramie, and it’s a College town. The people I knew in Laramie would drive down to Fort Collins to shop and eat out on weekends.
I love Laramie. But you have to enjoy driving.
It says a lot about bubbles in general when the place that is actually producing something is growing prices the slowest. The speculation is focused on areas where nothing is produced. That would make a great weekend topic someday.
Did this year’s emerging markets panic end as quickly as it began?
Emerging market sell-off: why did it happen and is it a buying opportunity?
The fast-growing economies of Asia and Latin America were supposed to be the future - but their stock markets have crashed. What should investors do now?
Emerging markets such as (left to right) Brazil, Russia, India and China - the ‘Brics’ - have struggled this year
Richard Evans
By Richard Evans
6:43AM GMT 12 Feb 2014
Many Isa investors have poured money into emerging markets in recent years, attracted by the idea that these fast-growing nations offer better prospects than the sluggish, debt-burdened West.
But they had a rude shock last month when share prices in many parts of the developing world fell suddenly and sharply, dragging other markets down with them. Some said the development marked a dangerous new phase in the global financial crisis.
Many investors will be wondering whether they should therefore cash in their emerging market holdings – even if it means making a loss.
A more bullish group will be asking whether the falls in share prices have opened up opportunities for bargain hunters, especially if the setbacks prove to be just a flash in the pan.
Below we aim to identify the causes of the latest shock to investors’ nerves and decide whether we are in for another drawn-out crisis or whether the markets can quickly recover their poise.
…
Leeches are in. Parasitism is the new black.
ft dot com
February 14, 2014 6:10 pm
Emerging-world fashions that change with the seasons
By Mohamed El-Erian
Over-enthusiasm for emerging markets is just one fashion I have seen in the past 16 years, says Mohamed El-Erian
As I prepare to step down from Pimco at the end of March, emerging markets are once again in the news for all the wrong reasons. In Argentina the currency has collapsed, Thailand and Ukraine are riven with political conflict, and Turkey is shaky.
These developments are reminiscent of the turmoil in January 1998 when I first moved to the private financial sector after 15 years at the International Monetary Fund. Then, Thailand was reeling, South Korea was on the ropes, and both Russia and Argentina were on their way to sovereign defaults.
A recurrence of the blues in emerging markets is not what conventional wisdom expected just a short while ago. For years experts had argued that these once-ailing economies had grown strong. Bank balance sheets had been strengthened. International reserves were much larger and government debt lower. Institutions were no longer financing themselves by issuing lots of short term debt that had to be repeatedly refinanced. Governments had enacted sensible reforms. Even in the harsh winds of the 2008 crisis, the emerging world did not catch a dreadful cold.
Excessive enthusiasm for emerging markets is far from the only intellectual fashion that I have seen come and go during the past 16 years. Another was the view that western central banks possessed all the tools necessary to secure a great economic and financial moderation; one that guarantees sustained growth, jobs and price stability. But it is in characterising the role of banks in a modern market economy that commentators have been at their most faddish.
At one time a largely unfettered banking system was seen as providing the most efficient way to channel funds to productive investments that create jobs and prosperity. Since banks were thought to embody strong self-correcting forces, they could be regulated with a light touch. These days, however, the banking industry is regarded more as a leech. Banks are seen as suffering from serious institutional and human imperfections. Their main function is the enrichment of insiders. Weak competition helped. Access to emergency bank funding and insurance paid for by taxpayers gave financiers a cushion when the music stopped. This, anyway, is the currently fashionable view. It, too, is an old one. It prevailed in the 1980s when western banks had to be bailed out after an irresponsible lending spree in Latin America. The 2008 crisis has given it new life.
…
“At one time a largely unfettered banking system was seen as providing the most efficient way to channel funds to productive investments that create jobs and prosperity.”
That use to be true in the days when banks risked their own money but stopped being true when the banks were able to pass these risks on to strangers.
“Since banks were thought to embody strong self-correcting forces, they could be regulated with a light touch.”
These “strong self-correcting forces” went out the window along with the risks they no longer had to keep.
“These days, however, the banking industry is regarded more as a leach. Banks are seen as suffering from serious institutional and human imperfections. Their main function is the enrichment of insiders.”
This is how these leaches have been conditioned by the vast multitides of the unwashed masses who willingly and eagarly signed dotted lines that committed themselves to send large portions of their paychecks to strangers for thirty years or so. If the bankers were not already leaches then they would either have to convert to becoming a leach or end up being chased out of the banking business by the leach of a banker that has his shop set up just down the street a bit. IOW the customers of Mister Prudent would end up being the customers of Mr. Mazilo.
We have met the enemy and he is us, as Pogo would say.
“Mazilo” = “Mozilo”
And then there is David Lereah, a guy that convinced millions of financial geniuses to “cash out the equity in your home” (Translation: suck out all the money you can from the house you are buying and replace this sucked-out money with runious debt, and when you can no longer service this ruinous debt then you will most likely lose your home - but before this eventuality arrives you should dutifully make monthly payments to the bank for as long as you are able).
People are smart.
Maybe we oughtta pass a law that any indsutry that needs a bailout first has to sign up ALL its employees for Obamacare, including the CEO and family. Might be more effective than any regulation the SEC can dream up.
Isn’t an Obamacare “platimun” plan better than what most people already get at work?
Canadian Banks already have a built in TARP
————
Canadian dollar falls as housing starts slow
CBC News | 10 February 2014
The pace of Canadian housing starts slowed in January with a steep drop in multiple-unit homes, an indication builders are adjusting to a slowdown in buyers, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
The agency estimated there were 11,737 actual housing starts in January and that is extrapolated to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 180,248, down from 187,144 in December.
The Canadian dollar dropped slightly, to 90.45 cents US, on the news. That wiped out gains it made Friday as Canadian employment ticked down to seven per cent. It closed down 0.13 of a cent to 90.46 cents US.
“The trend in housing starts decreased slightly in January, while the inventory of newly completed and unabsorbed units saw a modest downward trend in the last half of 2013,” CMHC deputy chief economist Mathieu Laberge said in a news release Monday.
When it gets back to .70 to 1, I may have to plan a vacation there.
UAW flattened by a Volkswagen
Flopping Aces | 02-15-14 | DrJohn
Having destroyed Detroit, the United Auto Workers union is desperate to infect foreign auto manufacturing plants in the South. It finally managed to force a vote on unionization in Chattanooga and the UAW hit a pot hole.
Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga, Tenn., have rejected the United Auto Workers, shooting down the union’s hopes of securing a foothold at a foreign-owned auto plant in the South.
The vote, announced late Friday night after three days of balloting, is a devastating loss for the UAW, whose membership has plummeted from a high of 1.5 million in 1979 to around 400,000 today. Outgoing UAW President Bob King had staked his legacy on organizing a Southern auto plant for the first time.
Union leaders, who poured millions of outside union dollars into a failed effort to unseat Scott Walker in Wisconsin, whined about outside money.
In a statement, the UAW blamed the conservative groups and Tennessee Republicans for their stinging defeat, with UAW Region 8 Director Gary Casteel saying that “politically motivated third parties threatened the economic future of this facility and the opportunity for workers to create a successful operating model that would grow jobs in Tennessee.” “While we’re outraged by politicians and outside special interest groups interfering with the basic legal right of workers to form a union, we’re proud that these workers were brave and stood up to the tremendous pressure from outside,” UAW Secretary-Treasurer Dennis Williams said. “We hope this will start a larger discussion about workers’ right to organize.”
It was also a rebuke for Barack Obama who had weighed in on the vote.
But let’s be honest about unions. Unions used to exist for workers’ benefits. Now they exist solely as a means to funnel workers’ wages into the pockets of democrats and democrat issues. Liberals whine a lot about the influence of the Koch brothers, but the Koch’s are pikers in contrast to the money spent by liberals and unions. From Open Secrets:
http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php
Detroit and the UAW were destroyed by the WTO and NAFTA.
So why doesn’t obama want to bomb the Venezuelan government during this Venezuelan spring…?
————————–
US condemns ‘senseless violence’ in Venezuela
The Hill | February 16, 2014 | Kyle Balluck
Secretary of State John Kerry is joining officials from the United Nations, Organization of American States and European Union in condemning “senseless violence” in Venezuela.
“The United States is deeply concerned by rising tensions and violence surrounding this week’s protests in Venezuela,” Kerry said in a statement. “Our condolences go to the families of those killed as a result of this tragic violence.”
“We are particularly alarmed by reports that the Venezuelan government has arrested or detained scores of anti-government protestors and issued an arrest warrant for opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez. These actions have a chilling effect on citizens’ rights to express their grievances peacefully,” he added.
Kerry’s comments came as demonstrators and riot police faced off on Saturday in a fourth day of protests against President Nicolas Maduro.
“I’m not going to give up one millimeter of the power the Venezuelan people have given me … nothing will stop me from building this revolution which commandant [Hugo] Chavez left us,” Maduro told supporters on Saturday, according to Reuters.
Because there are no chemical weapons involved?
The first rule of communism:
Don’t talk about communism.
Is the weather stalling out the local economic recovery in your area?
I’ve seen a record number of recent articles blaming bad economic numbers on the weather. If spring time eventually arrives with economic numbers still in the crapper, watch out below!
Feb. 15, 2014, 4:36 p.m. EST
New storm hammering Eastern U.S.
By MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)– A new storm was moving Saturday into much of the eastern U.S, which already has been hammered by snow this winter. The storm was expected to move through the New York City area, depositing as much as five inches of fresh snow, by Saturday night. Forecasters said parts of New England could get as much as 20 inches by Sunday morning, with strong winds developing Saturday night along the eastern New England coast. Blizzard conditions are possible in outlying areas, the Weather Channel reported.
not in Dc area. Bama be gonna hire 13-16k IRS agents
How long would it actually take for that, and wouldn’t it be all over the country spread out to all the IRS offices? I think it would takes several years at least.
Former D.C. Department of Human Services worker pleads guilty to scheme
Washington Post | 2/15/14 | Patrick Svitek
Aretha Holland-Jackson, 45, admitted in federal court that she used her access to the Department of Human Services’ computer system to set up public assistance for nearly two dozen phony beneficiaries. Using fake names and Social Security numbers, Holland-Jackson obtained government ID cards that she and others used to withdraw food stamps, cash and other public benefits from ATMs, according to prosecutors.
The scheme, which lasted from February 2011 to September 2013, cost the D.C. government at least $783,876 in public benefits mostly intended for low-income families, according to the U.S. attorney’s office.
Holland-Jackson was arrested in September after using one of the debit cards to withdraw about $700 from an ATM on H Street NE, authorities said. She was in possession of eight cards at the time.
will she lose her gov pension? probably not
Likely used the money for self-aggrandizement; gotts [sic] to have more flashy clothes, more prepared junk food, more makeup, etc., because it’s in my character. Yeah, poor isn’t about a lack of money.
Yes, she used it for fast food and makeup.
Think the Koch Brothers Are Among the Top 10 All-Time Political Donors?
The Blaze | 2/15/2014 | Oliver Darcy
The Koch brothers, notorious for donating large sums of money to right-leaning political causes, might not be as influential as some may think.
Opensecrets.org recently compiled a list of the top “all-time donors” from 1989 to 2014 and the infamous duo not only fail to take the top slot, but even place in the top 10.
In fact, according to the data, Koch Industries places 59 on the list with $18 million in donations, 90-percent of which went to Republicans.
So who takes the top spot? An organization called “ActBlue” which bills itself as a PAC “allowing individuals and groups to channel their progressive dollars to candidates and movements of their choosing.”
That group has donated more than 97 million to political causes, with over 99-percent going to Democrats.
The Washington Examiner has more:
So who occupies the 58 spots ahead of the Evil Koch Bros? Six of the top 10 are … wait for it … unions. They gave more than $278 million, with most of it going to Democrats.
These are familiar names: AFSCME ($60.6 million), NEA ($53.5 million), IBEW ($44.4 million), UAW ($41.6 million), Carpenters & Joiners ($39.2 million) and SEIU ($38.3 million).
In other words, the six biggest union donors in American politics gave 15 times more to mostly Democrats than the Evil Koch Bros.
It is no shock that unions are pro crony collectivism.
Congratulations, Tampa Bay! We had our first “teen” wilding at the Florida State Fair! Now we can join the other illustrious “urban” areas of the country, like Chicago, Detroit, Richmond VA, Oakland, Indianapolis, St. Louis, the Wisconsin State Fair, etc.
http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/bn9/2014/2/14/deputy_presence_fair.html?cid=rss
Some poor kid got flattened on 1-4 trying to get away from the cops, not a good idea to try to cross a main highway at night.
Anyway, the flash mob was creepy enough, what’s even creepier was the almost IMMEDIATE police-state surveillance response. They moved in all this equipment and vehicles and monitors like in the blink of an eye. As one commenter said elsewhere, it was like they had it waiting in the wings.
Actually, the creepiest part of the whole thing is how easily people accept and even justify the police surveillance state. As a matter of fact, if people don’t fall in line with it and object to it, they’re immediately made fun of.
I love the dumb-down line about “If you’re not doing anything wrong, you have nothing to worry about”. Bwha-hah-ha-ha! How stoopit are the sheeple?
Actually, the creepiest part of the whole thing is how easily people accept and even justify the police surveillance state.
Agreed. Every time I hear someone say, “I have nothing to hide, let them spy on me”, I cringe.
http://www.gocomics.com/tomthedancingbug/2013/06/28#.UwDgGs62Kf4
Great stuff, Colorado. I just added to my favorites. That’s exactly how it happens, and that guy is such an excellent example of a yokel sheeple.
Tom the Dancing Bug has its moments. Some strips are duds, though.
If the police aren’t doing anything wrong, then they have nothing to hide either. I want live-streaming video of everything that every cop is doing while on duty.
Why the Tennessee Volkswagen Workers Voted Against the UAW
Pajamas Media | 02/15/2013 | Ron Radosh
“The United Auto Workers union suffered a crushing defeat Friday, falling short in an election in which it seemed to have a clear path to organizing workers at Volkswagen’s plant in Chattanooga, Tenn.,” the [1] Wall Street Journal [1] reported Saturday. “The setback is a bitter defeat because the union had the cooperation of Volkswagen management and the aid of Germany’s powerful IG Metall union, yet it failed to win a majority among the plants 1,550 hourly workers.”
One cannot emphasize the magnitude of this loss. What it clearly spells out is the irrelevance of the old industrial unions in today’s world. They have become nothing less than reactionary institutions. It is no longer the heyday of the union movement, which once was necessary and helped create a middle class in our country in the 1930s and ’40s.
So when a major corporation urges unionization and sides with the UAW, and the workers vote in a free NLRB-supervised election to not unionize, it is a very big deal indeed. Nationally, the decline in the strength of unions has had its effect on the UAW. During the heyday of the union, it represented 1.5 million workers; now, it represents only 400,000. If Walter Reuther were still alive, he would be stunned at the reversal of the fortunes of the union he worked so hard to build. Indeed, in Michigan — once the very stronghold of the union –the state has put into place a right-to-work law that allows workers to drop their membership in unions, including the UAW, if they choose to do so.
When it comes to wages, it turns out that at the Southern plant, a starting worker earns $19.50 an hour without a union, while his counterpart working in Michigan earns only $15.50 an hour. So wages do not compel a worker to support unionization. The foreign- owned plants, it seems, pay better than the American auto manufacturers.
Then there are the unspoken social issues, which I’ll discuss on the following page.
Workers voting against the union are most likely socially conservative, standing against abortion and for the NRA on the issue of guns. They know very well that union dues go to PACs (in fact a union creation) and left-leaning candidates .
The ides that unions were necessary in the past to build the middle class but not necessary today is nonsense. Big business has been successfully reversing those achievements for decades. The decline of the American middle class has been made possible by the decline of the unions.
The ides that unions were necessary in the past to build the middle class but not necessary today is nonsense.
unions were never ‘necessary’.
As I wrote, the decline of the unions has been a main cause of the decline of the American middle class. There’s a guy who participates on this blog who regularly predicts that eventually only 15% of the population will have a middle class standard living. Revival of the unions is necessary to prevent that outcome.
As I wrote, the decline of the unions has been a main cause of the decline of the American middle class.
you wrote it but you didn’t explain it. how has the decline of the unions caused the decline in the middle class?
There’s a guy who participates on this blog who regularly predicts that eventually only 15% of the population will have a middle class standard living.
so what? i can regularly predict that purple wombats from neptune will land on the moon. it all means nothing until you can back it up with some logic.
Revival of the unions is necessary to prevent that outcome.
again.. how will the revival of the unions prevent that outcome?
I didn’t think that I would have to explain it. Unions often get better pay, benefits, and working conditions than they would have otherwise.
Unions often get better pay, benefits, and working conditions than they would have otherwise.
false in many ways. and you explained nothing.
even for members the gains are short term and at the expense of their own future. but neither they nor you understand this. it is unlikely you ever will.
I suppose you could say that it was a statement, not an explanation. Then again, you don’t offer any evidence to back up your statements. Your contributions to this blog are like expressions religious belief.
I know that a lot of people like to hear personal anecdotes, so I can share one that is relevant. Back in the 90s I had a boss who was a complete jerk. Most of the people who had to deal with thought that he was a detriment to the company and many though that he should be fired. His superiors chose to ignore the situation, so it went on for years.
Now this was an office environment at a small non-profit corporation (around 100 employees). So there was no union in a formal sense. But the four of us who reported to this clown decided to talk to his boss. It actually took two years and a lot of stress, but we were able to get him fired.
If it was just one individual employee trying to do something about a bad boss, nothing would have been accomplished. We were able to improve our work environment because all of the people who had to report to this jerk were working together to get rid of him.
That’s the basic idea of the union, that workers can achieve more negotiating as a group rather than as individuals.
Another interesting point about my story is the fact that four of us made the effort to get rid of this bad manager. However, as I wrote above, many people in the company couldn’t stand him and they all benefited from the risk that we took. That’s a sort of a free rider effect, which is also a phenomenon that existed when unions played a large role in the economy.
Then again, you don’t offer any evidence to back up your statements.
you are the one making the claim that the decline of the unions is responsible for the decline of the middle class. i don’t have to ‘back up’ your claims.
Your contributions to this blog are like expressions religious belief.
yours are less. so what?
I know that a lot of people like to hear personal anecdotes
personal anecdotes are nice but they don’t prove anything. i want to know how you defend your position, and it can’t be logically done with anecdotes.
That’s the basic idea of the union, that workers can achieve more negotiating as a group rather than as individuals.
yes, this is the crux of the matter.
why do groups of people form? for power. the power of the many over the few. the very essence of forming groups for power is wrong. it’s might makes right. and it’s immoral. but it is how the world works.
what you don’t know is that if employers had to compete for employees, the working conditions, wages etc, would all improve on their own. employers would have to offer people more or they’d have to close up shop. but will socialist policies in place to make the economy weaker, workers have to compete for jobs. when that happens they accept less pay, poorer working conditions and so on.
the only way to get employers to compete is to turn the free market loose. free from most regs and taxes. otherwise, eventually, you get detroit.
I have a problem with unions today because they have been taken over by pro nanny state, pro authoritarian government socialist movements. Otherwise I think they can be good for workers when they use flexibility and reason in their contract negotiations. Saw a lot of companies leave towns high and dry when the unions would not budge on demands.
I don’t believe unions were formed to “build the middle class”.
The so-called middle class has destroyed itself with voluntary slavery to debt.
“The so-called middle class has destroyed itself with voluntary slavery to debt.”
+1 Got that right!
Sorry Protesters: Your Jobs Are Being Sent To China And They Aren’t Coming Back
By Michael Snyder, on December 11th, 2012
The funny thing is that the workers that are out there protesting these union bills actually voted for the politicians that are killing their jobs. Both parties are married to the one world economic system and the “free trade” agenda, and Barack Obama has been one of the worst offenders. He has been pushing for more “free trade agreements” throughout the past four years, and yet union workers continue to support him enthusiastically.
How foolish can they possibly be?
Yeah, let’s merge American workers into a global labor pool with workers in third world countries on the other side of the globe that work in absolutely nightmarish conditions for as little as 45 dollars a month. That sounds like a great idea, doesn’t it?
Oh, but you don’t want to work for 45 dollars a month?
You don’t even want to work for 450 dollars a month?
Well, then the big corporations that fund politicians like Obama will just take your jobs and send them halfway around the planet.
Do you think that your unions will save your jobs?
Michigan already has the highest rate of union membership in the Midwest.
It also has the highest rate of unemployment in the Midwest.
Over the past couple of decades, thousands of businesses in Michigan have either closed down or moved facilities overseas.
Did the unions prevent any of that?
No.
If union bosses really wanted to do some good, they would be organizing protests against our incredibly foolish trade policies.
But instead, they tell their members to vote for politicians like Obama and then they run out to the stores and fill their carts with huge piles of products that were made in China.
Union workers need to wake up to one fundamental economic fact - in a one world economic system, the big corporations simply do not need you. They can make their products in lots of other countries where it is legal to pay slave labor wages.
But instead of getting upset about what is really killing their jobs, union workers in Michigan are screaming mad about a couple of new laws that will take some power away from the unions.
That is kind of like being obsessed with a broken fingernail when your leg has just been sawed off and you are gushing blood all over the floor.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/sorry-protesters-your-jobs-are-being-sent-to-china-and-they-arent-coming-back - 243k -
sorry Mr. Scandals, i appreciate many of the articles that you bring to the board. but this one is just left-wing bilge. it’s all about protectionism which never works. ask HA. it’s about price fixing and nothing more.
tj:
Protectionism has always worked for the United States. Do you live in a bubble? It has been free trade that isn’t working.
Protectionism has always worked for the United States.
worked for whom? the unions and their cronies at the expense of everyone else?
Do you live in a bubble?
do you live in a vacuum?
It has been free trade that isn’t working.
by what logic?
The middle class, which is the backbone of the economy. And everyone else too.
No, I live in a house, and my vacuum lives here too.
By the logic of GDP, poverty rates, economic mobility, and debt:GDP ratio.
HOW was the middle class helped by protectionism?
<By the logic of GDP, poverty rates, economic mobility, and debt:GDP ratio.
the most you can get out of these is some type of correlation. and correlation doesn’t prove causation. care to try to prove it with logic?
Logic can’t prove anything. It can only disprove. Back to high school for you, tj.
it figures you’d back out. back to dumbbell school for you.
The jerk store is running out of you.
ideas from seinfeld. how original.
Free trade is an efficient equalizer. It transfers wealth from countries that give a high level of welfare benefits to those that don’t. It transfers wealth from countries with high per capita income to those with low. It transfers wealth from countries that have strong environmental regulations to those that don’t. Apparently, free trade also strips away technology advantages, as technology transfers find a way where there is money to be made.
Meet The Cratertons… The Proverbial Underwater California Couple
http://www.lindazemler.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/house_underwater.jpg
+1 Cute.
West Coast and Florida Housing Still Submerged and Sinking
http://www.zillow.com/visuals/negative-equity/#4/39.98/-106.92
It’s a backbreaking chore just to answer the door when you’re a debt-donkey.
http://content.headlineasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/House-Underwater-Wallpapers-HD-1024×576.jpg
Big unions contribute 99%+ to liberal democrats in order to get them elected so that the unions get insane pensions/benefits as payback.
It is a great feedback loop which guarantees democrat long term rule in most of America’s big cities.
Did I mention that any city employee must join these unions and pay union dues as a CONDITION of employment?
And we wonder where it will end.
————————
Cradle-to-grave debt load leaves no Chicagoan free
Chicago Tribune | 2/14/14 | Tim Jones
CHICAGO — This is now the city of big debt, where each of Chicago’s 2.7 million residents — from infants in diapers to senior citizens on fixed incomes — is on the hook for about $20,000 in long-term pension promises and bond obligations.
Like the relentless snow clogging the city’s streets, it just keeps piling up.
Chicago isn’t bankrupt Detroit, junk-status Puerto Rico or New York at the brink of insolvency in 1975. Yet the city of gleaming skyscrapers along Lake Michigan’s shore tripled its debt load from 2002 to 2012, as it ignored annual pension payments and borrowed for capital and operating expenses. A $590 million payment for retirement obligations is due next year, threatening cuts in everything from police to garbage collection, a tax increase, or both.
The city is about to pile on more borrowing, worsening its status as the biggest carrier of per-capita debt among the nation’s most-populous cities. Chicago plans to sell $650 million of bonds in the coming weeks, adding to liabilities that soared in the past decade.
At the same time, Chicago’s per-capita pension obligations for teachers, police, firefighters, transit workers and other employees almost quadrupled, topping $11,800 in fiscal 2012. The combined debt burden from pensions and borrowing reached almost $19,600 per person in 2012, the federation said.
“Chicago is on the road to Detroit,” declared the headline on a Feb. 5 editorial in the Chicago Tribune.
I’d put a lattice boom crawler on a barge if I were hired to do this job but this outcome is much more preferable.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/10/1/1317460684756/David-Simonds-underwater–007.jpg
It’s carbon tax time.
Obama pitches $1B climate change ‘resilience fund’
By Laura Barron-Lopez
February 14, 2014, 06:39 am
President Obama will pitch a new $1 billion climate change resilience fund during a visit Friday to California.
The fund, which would need to be approved by Congress, is intended to help communities dealing with negative weather that’s the result of climate change.
Obama is touting the fund during a trip to California, which has been devastated by a drought that is threatening the Central Valley’s agriculture production and has led Gov. Jerry Brown (D) to call on Californians to conserve water.
During a call with reporters on Thursday evening, the assistant to the president on science and technology, John Holdren, said, without any doubt, the severe drought plaguing California and a number of other states across the country is tied to climate change.
“Weather practically everywhere is being caused by climate change,” Holdren said.
The administration’s fund would invest in research to gather data on the impacts of climate change, help communities prepare for them and support innovative technologies and infrastructure to ready the country “in the face of a changing climate.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/198394-obama-to-announce-1b-climate-change-resilience-fund - 102k -
Requirements before deciding to buy a house;
Empty skull of all contents
Refill skull with realtard lies
Then start doing this for the rest of your life
http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/underwater-mortgage-rocklin-roseville.jpg
Requirements before deciding to buy a house:
Have 20% down.
Have a job. Is it secure?
The total house cost (P/I/I/T) should be no more than 30% of your take home pay
Understand if you live in public union goon territory and how high property taxes can be raised
Understand flood insurance if you are in a flood plain
Take courses on basic property maintenance
Understand what replace costs you will incur on your house in the next 10 years (furnace, roof, a/c, windows, etc.)
Learn the neighborhood - talk with potential future neighbors. Any crazy ones? And section 8?
Is the house overpriced? -
Check census data for household income. Average house should be no more than 3.0 x average household income
Check local rents for the same type house. Average house cost should be no more 120x monthly house rent
Understand realtors will lie to you. Do your own homework. Be prepared to walk away from any deal.
READ ALL DOCUMENTS before you sign them. Do not sign them if you don’t understand them or do no agree with them.
-Don’t pay more than $35-$40/sq ft for a resale structure and only if it’s in good shape.
I don’t think you need to take courses on basic property maintenance. If you already have a college degree, some post-graduate professional certificates, and a full-time job, then you would hire someone to do home repairs.
On the other hand, if you’re too poor for that, then you should take classes in a subject that will qualify you for a higher-paying job.
RULE I: ALL GUNS ARE ALWAYS LOADED
RULE II: NEVER LET THE MUZZLE COVER ANYTHING YOU ARE NOT WILLING TO DESTROY
RULE III: KEEP YOUR FINGER OFF THE TRIGGER UNTIL YOUR SIGHTS ARE ON THE TARGET
RULE IV: BE SURE OF YOUR TARGET
Top Cuomo aide granted waiver after repeatedly breaking NY gun law
Michael Dorstewitz
bizpacreview.com
February 15, 2014
A top aide to strict gun-grabbing New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been granted a waiver for carrying a firearm at government offices in violation of state law.
Cuomo appointed Jerome Hauer to take over the state’s Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services in 2011, according to the Albany Times Union.
The Albany, N.Y.-based newspaper reported in early January that Hauer used his firearm’s laser sight as a pointer device during a meeting with a delegation of Swedish security professionals — with his loaded 9-mm Glock still attached.
People sitting across from Hauer “moved quickly out of the line of the laser when he brought out the gun,” and three of the Swedes “were rattled when the gun’s laser tracked across one of their heads before Hauer found the map of New York, at which he wanted to point,” the Times Union report.
The meeting took place on Oct. 24, but the incident didn’t come to light until last month.
On Wednesday, the Times Union reported:
Cuomo defended Hauer at a news conference Wednesday. The governor said he’s comfortable with commissioners carrying weapons to work as long as they have gun permits. He qualified the response by adding “if they are licensed and in that field of work.”
Hauer is not a law enforcement officer or working in law enforcement, although his official vehicle has emergency lights and sirens.
Despite the lack of a waiver before January, several witnesses said he has been carrying a gun on the job since Cuomo appointed him in 2011.
One of the basic rules of firearm safety is to never draw a weapon unless you intend to use it — as a weapon, not as a pointer. And never point a weapon at anything you don’t intend to destroy.
Cuomo’s crusade against firearms apparently applies to all New Yorkers except those he blesses, and Hauer is one of the blessed.
Now he has a gun and a car with lights and a siren, which makes me feel very safe — because I don’t live in New York.
Why conservatives are good:
They are MORE than happy to live under the same laws they want for everyone else.
Why liberals/socialists are not good:
They expect to be exempted from all the laws they pass for “the people.”
“They expect to be exempted from all the laws they pass for “the people.”
Rosie O’Donnell: “On her television show, April 19, 1999,O’Donnell had this to say about gun owners: “I don’t care if you want to hunt. I don’t care if you thinkit’s your right. I say, ‘Sorry.’ It is 1999. We have had enough as a nation. You are not allowed to own a gun, and if you do own a gun I think you should go to prison.” Several months later, a bodyguard in her employ applied for a concealed gun permit from the Greenwich (Connecticut) Police Department. When queried about whether her bodyguard should carry a gun on May 24, 2000, she said, ‘I don’t personally own a gun, but if you are qualified, licensed and registered, I have no problem.’”
Michael Moore: He’s a staunch advocate of gun control who has gone so far as to suggest that merely owning a gun is racism, “…But on this particular day, on Martin Luther King Day, I think this needs to be said. That imaginary person that’s going to break into your home and kill you, who does that person look like? You know, it’s not freckle-faced Jimmy down the street, is it really? I mean, that’s not what really, that’s not what really people, we never really want to talk about the racial or the class part of this, in terms of how it’s the poor or it’s people of color that we imagine that we’re afraid of. Why are we afraid? What is that, and it’s been a fear that has existed for a very, very long time.” — Michael Moore
Yet, Michael Moore has an armed bodyguard. We know because that bodyguard was arrested carrying his weapon.
“Filmmaker Michael Moore’s bodyguard was arrested for carrying an unlicensed weapon in New York’s JFK airport….”
http://townhall.com/columnists/johnhawkins/2013/03/23/7-liberal-hypocrites-who-call-for-gun-control-while-being-protected-by-guns-n1546898/page/full - 73k
“They expect to be exempted from all the laws they pass for “the people.”
Journalist Accosted by Security over Mayor Bloomberg Gun Control Question
by Wynton Hall
28 Jan 2013
In the video, Bloomberg is seen surrounded by security. Mattera approaches Bloomberg and asks, “In the spirit of gun control, will you disarm your entire security team?”
Bloomberg’s reply: “Uh, you, we’ll get right back to you.”
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2013/01/28/EXCLUSIVE-Journalist-Accosted-By-Security-Over-Mayor-Bloomberg-Gun-Control-Question - 86k -
That’s hilarious.
“RULE IV: BE SURE OF YOUR TARGET”
RULE IV: BE SURE OF YOUR TARGET AND WHAT’S BEYOND YOUR TARGET.
Kinda like a kid shoveling all the cr@p in their room into the closet, shutting the closet door and saying…
Look, my room is clean.
Fed Seen Avoiding Historic Loss by Holding Mortgage Debt …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/fed-sees-avoiding-unprecedented-losses-by-holding-mortgage-bonds.html - 111k - Cached - Similar pages
Oct 28, 2013 … The Federal Reserve can avoid unprecedented losses by never selling mortgage
How many trillions of dollars worth of houses did they pay a grossly inflated price for?
4? 5? I’ll wager it’s actually worth under $1 trillion.
Mz. Craterton goes for a swim:
http://www.picpaste.com/donkey-swim-Hlz6HGuP.png
Obama Pushes TPP Negotiations Despite Mounting Opposition at Home and Abroad
EFF
February 16, 2014
House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi firmly announced her rejection of the “Fast Track” bill at an event on Wednesday, saying it was “out of the question.” Its passage has become increasingly tenuous since Senate Majority leader Harry Reid came out against it two weeks ago.
Fast Track is a mechanism that empowers the White House with sweeping authority to sign off on trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), limiting Congress’ constitutional powers to set trade objectives, choose trading partners, and call hearings and amend all provisions. Opposition from Democrat leaders in the House and Senate is a major setback for the Fast Track bill, and likely comes as a result of public opposition from hundreds of thousands of individuals and organizations across the US.
Despite these blows, Obama and the US Trade Rep are still forging ahead to try to bring TPP closer to agreement among the 12 negotiating countries. US Trade Rep Michael Froman will meet this weekend with Japan’s trade minister, who is head of the country’s TPP negotiations, to reconcile differences on some major remaining sticking points around tariffs and auto trade. The next TPP meeting, already delayed several times, will begin on February 22 in Singapore. Then in April, President Obama is scheduled to make a trip to Asia. A White House press statement this week shows that TPP is clearly on his agenda as he visits two countries participating in the negotiations.
However, resistance continues to mount abroad. Over80 senior legislators from seven TPP negotiating countries issued a joint letter demanding that the entire draft text of the agreement be published before it is signed, “to enable detailed scrutiny and public debate.” Vice President of Peru, Marisol Espinoza, is also a signatory to the letter.
The next few months will be interesting for the White House as it struggles to pull together support on this sprawling trade deal both at home and abroad. Senator Ron Wyden has become the new Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, where he will face pressure from the President to pass some form of Fast Track legislation to pass TPP as quickly as possible. But Wyden has been a vocal opponent to the secrecy around these trade negotiations. In 2012, hesent a letter to the US Trade Rep calling them to release detailed information about provisions in the TPP that would impact Internet freedoms. He also introduced a bill to the floor demanding the US Trade Rep give Congress members full access to the TPP text—the same access afforded to representatives of corporations like the Motion Picture Association.
Members of Congress may also introduce a different Fast Track bill, including provisions aimed at mitigating some of the major opposition to the TPP. But any version of Fast Track that facilitates secret trade agreements enables one-sided copyright laws and threatens users rights is unacceptable. Digital policies must be created democratically and transparently.
If you’re in the US: use this tool to contact your lawmakers, call your representatives, and help us keep the pressure on Congress to oppose Fast Track.
Tags: north american union
Cop Found “Not Guilty” After Beating Man in Wheelchair
Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:46 PM
Read the Article / Watch the Video]
http://digits.newsvine.com/_news/2014/02/13/22716783-cop-found-not-guilty-after-beating-man-in-wheelchair - 56k -
How not to get your ass kicked by the police!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj0mtxXEGE8
Step 1: Punch him in the throat.
Step 2: Pepper-spray him.
Step 3: Drive away in his car.
“Step 3: Drive away in his car.”
Better bring your dog.
Video: Police Shoot Family’s Service Dog Outside 9-Year-Old’s …
http://www.infowars.com/video-police-shoot-familys-service-dog-outside-9-year-olds-birthday-party/ - 90k - Cached - Similar pages
5 days ago
I’ve been slowly dipping my toes in the San Diego market to buy, but these prices are outrageous. One complex in particular in Point Loma was just over $500,000 during the bubble for a 2 bed/2.5 bath 1300 sqf. condo with a two car garage and biking distance to the beach. Just a year ago the price was down near $350,000 for the same model, but is now back up to $440,000+ for similar models. I can’t believe the stratospheric rise back to nearly peak prices. I can’t begin to justify paying the newly inflated prices, so i’m planning on sitting this market out and waiting for the next correction. At 25 years old and with a 20%+ downpayment and growing, i’m hoping that time is on my side.
Rent. Never sign on with an HOA. Cuck Fondos.
Sit tight, watch your wallet and enjoy the scenery as the wheels come off the housing market.
And if you do deal with a realtor, shell out the $500 and have a private investigator perform a bankground check on it. You’ll be glad you did.
Time is on your side. I saw a nice graph the other day showing that the dead-cat bounce in San Diego is falling back down to earth. Inventory has been up for a while, and price-per-square foot has been down for a few months. Foreclousures in California are up by 50%.
The chart (for prices) is here. The author of the article is frantically trying to convince himself that the dead-cat bounce is not a bubblet, but his own chart indicates otherwise.
http://voiceofsandiego.org/2014/02/11/san-diego-homes-overpriced-yes-bubble-not-so-much/
For the inventory chart, see Movoto statistics.
For the 50% inrease in California foreclosures, see the RealtyTrac article recently posted by Ben. I think it was RealtyTrac.
We’re back to 1990 levels, and staring down the barrel of a 7-year slide in order to bottom out. And the denial stage is back, thanks to the Echo Bubble.
“And the denial stage is back, thanks to the Echo Bubble.”
Shutdown the federal government mortgage guarantees, and we’ll see if the sunny SD market is in a bubble or not. If it can’t stand on its own economic legs then it’s a bubble, IMHO.
P.S. You probably noticed the author is Rich Toscano, aka Professor Piggington, a former HBB poster.
TYCOON Donald Trump last night turned his back on Scotland after he lost his court battle against the Scottish Government’s approval of the offshore wind farm he claims will blight his luxury Scottish golf resort.
He announced that his global organisation would instead be focusing “all of our investment and energy” on a new golf course development on the Atlantic coast of the Republic of Ireland.
His organisation wasted no time announcing the purchase of the Doonbeg Golf Club in County Clare, the 16th golf club in the Trump portfolio and the first Trump hotel in Ireland.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/defeated-donald-trump-turns-his-back-on-scotland-1-3301941
Tony town, mostly. Reduced cost labor, heck yeah! :
http://maine.craigslist.org/etc/4315076962.html
I guess Jeebuz stopped paying attention for the instant it took for the snake to bite this minister:
http://www.azcentral.com/thingstodo/celebrities/free/20140216reality-show-snake-handler-dies.html
“Oops” says Jeebuz. “Oh well, see you in heaven!”
Saw that on Drudge. Reality shows about people working at Walmart in the works next……..