Sellers Are Thinking They’ll Get More If They Wait
The World Property Channel reports on California. “Home sales in California were essentially flat in January, due to a limited supply of homes, according to the California Association of Realtors. Single-family home sales totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 363,640 in January, dropping 13.8 percent from the previous year. The median home price in January reached $410,990, falling from $438,090 in December. January’s median price was 22.1 percent higher than the revised $336,650 seen in January 2013. Housing inventory improved in January as home sellers geared up to sell their homes for the spring home-buying season. The available supply of existing, single-family detached homes for sale rose in January to 4.3 months, up from December’s Unsold Inventory Index of 3 months. The index was 3.5 months in January 2013.”
“‘The decline in the January median price was the largest in a year but is typical between December and January, with that decline averaging nearly nine percent over the last six years,’ said C.A.R. chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘The statewide median price was pulled down by a change in the mix of sales, as sales in higher-priced areas such as the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, and Ventura counties fell much sharper than in lower-priced areas.’”
The Press Democrat. “Despite a sharp jump in sales of upper-end properties, Sonoma County home sales slowed in January. Buyers purchased 272 single-family homes last month, according to The Press Democrat’s monthly housing report compiled by Pacific Union International VP Rick Laws. Sales fell 5 percent from a year ago and were the lowest for January in three years.”
“February sales remain slow, said Eileen Morelli, the operating principal and broker for the four Keller Williams offices in Sonoma and Napa counties. But activity should increase as usual this spring because agents have lined up plenty of sellers who are getting ready to put homes on the market. Laws agreed that many sellers are thinking they’ll get more for their homes if they wait until springtime. ‘They’re doing the last-minute fix-ups,’ Morelli said. ‘They want to see flowers in the yard and green grass on the hills and birds chirping,’ he said.”
The Union Tribune. “Foreclosures and default notices in San Diego County edged up in January, but are still hovering around post Great Recession lows. Last month, lenders foreclosed on 149 properties in San Diego County and issued 490 default notices, which kick off the 90-day foreclosure process, DataQuick reported. While the overall trend is down, January’s default notices jumped 58 percent above January 2013’s tally of 310. They were also up from the 387 filed in December. ‘That’s disconcerting and something to keep an eye on,’ said Mark Goldman, a loan officer and real estate lecturer at San Diego State University.”
The Press Enterprise. “The alleged squatters won. That was the news delivered by Eileen Didier, a real estate agent for Scott and Tammy Laffin, of La Pine, Ore., after a months-long struggle to evict a family occupying their Hemet house without permission days before it was to be sold to an Orange County investor. The bank refused to extend the $150,000 short sale on the house, Didier said, noting that the foreclosure was to be recorded Tuesday, Feb. 18. Now, it’s the lender’s problem, Scott Laffin said.”
“The Laffins said their ordeal began when they felt pangs of sympathy after an appraiser for the buyer told them a family had occupied the home that the Laffins left when their jobs took them to Oregon. The inhabitants’ story of an unscrupulous fraudster who duped them out of rent tugged at the heartstrings, and the family was allowed to stay through Christmas. After Christmas, the Laffins said, the family remained in the home. The short sale unraveled.”
“‘It was our big mistake,’ Scott said. ‘We should not have let our holiday spirit get in the way.’”
“The fact someone can stay in a house knowing that they are there without the owner’s permission is flat-out wrong, Didier said, adding that many valuable lessons were learned. ‘If you find out someone is in your home illegally, no matter how horrible the sob story, you have to get them out,’ she said.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Bakersfield’s home construction industry is building on a post-recession rebound. The number of single-family home construction permits issued by the city has more than tripled since 2011 to 1,307 at the end of last year. Though well below 2005’s peak of 5,216 homebuilding permits, 2013’s total is the highest since 2007. The median price of a home sold in the city grew by 8 percent in 2012 — then soared 30.5 percent last year to $185,925, according to Bakersfield home appraiser Gary Crabtree.”
“While more homes on the market does not put upward pressure on prices, it does provide greater selection for homebuyers — and more business for Realtors. Bakersfield homebuilder Greg Gibbons said some customers buying now are people who lost their homes to foreclosure in the housing bust. And while home construction costs may soon rise as builders run out of developed lots, the outlook appears strong.”
“‘In 2006, 2007, 2008, we did nothing. It was horrible,’ he said. ‘Last year we finally had a good year. We don’t know how long it’s going to hold up, but it’s been a good year or two. And we think this year will be a good year. But you just never know in this business.’”
CBS San Francisco. “Two recent Palo Alto home sales give a better understanding of just how crazy the Bay Area real estate market has become. A buyer snapped up 202 Emerson Street in an all-cash deal for a cool $1.6 million, which included the bars on a door, cracks in the foundation and some missing bricks on the 1,100 square foot home. The house is also just steps from noisy Caltrain tracks. The home last sold 40 years ago for $25.000, but now sold at 6,400 percent of that.”
“The sky-high prices have many in the area considering a move, a common consideration in many established Bay Area communities. ‘Some of these people have lived here 25, 30, 40 years and find themselves sitting in a place they’d like to live, they love to live in, but they’re thinking ‘if I sell now, I can retire comfortably somewhere else,’ says Erick Motta of Home Star Real Estate.”
“One homeowner who spoke with KPIX 5 bought north of downtown for $32,000 in 1976. Last year, her neighbor across the street sold for three million.”
the fall of 06 strategy
key word fall
HA. Housing always depreciates….Always. or at least right up to the point it is sold for a 6000% gain. HA, Ha, Ha, ho, ho, ho. Folly on both sides of the equation ….. housing obviously appreciates, and there is silly money chasing it sometimes.
Tell us more about your $90k water meter.
‘Chinese Join Winklevosses in L.A. Luxury Home Hedges’
‘Rihanna Almost Broke And Bankrupt in 2009: Stupid L.A. Home Purchase, Poor Financial Decisions’
‘Chinese Join Winklevosses in L.A. Luxury Home Hedges’
I can’t wait until this scheme collapses and we can mock the investors for their folly.
‘Year-over-year in California, foreclosure starts increased 57 percent from a year ago in January 2013. The spike breaks a pattern of 17 consecutive months of annual decreases, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosure starts are homes that have reported a notice of default.’
‘The Coachella Valley reflected a similar year-over-year trend in foreclosure starts. There were 99 notices of default across the valley in January, down slightly from 103 notices in December, but 62 percent higher than the 61 notices in January 2013.’
When I pulled up foreclosures in 2008, 9, & 10 in my market in California (Sacramento foothills), there were invariably 520 to 580 foreclosures.
I just pulled up the same report this morning. There were 88 properties. Even if the number jumped 60% to 140 properties, the fact is this market is NOTHING like the market downturn we had 5 years ago.
The market forces of 2008 created overwhelming disaster. Current foreclosure rates are just a side bet today.
Foreclosure moratoriums are quite effective eh JingleBalls?
January 2013 was artificially low due to the commencement of the homeowner Bill of Rights. As such, the year on year comparison means very little.
There was a spike up from February to April. April 2013 NODs as reported by Property Radar was more than 2x January 2013’s level (and about 40% more than January 2014).
It will be equally faulty to be comparing April 2014 to April 2013 when April 2014’s numbers are way lower.
More excuses RentaLiar?
Here’s the CAR report in a press release. The tables at the bottom are interesting:
‘A limited supply of available homes for sale continued to hamper California housing sales, which were essentially flat in January, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported.’
These guys are so full of crap:
‘As home price gains eased toward the end of 2013, California’s housing affordability held steady in the fourth quarter of 2013 from the previous quarter, following six consecutive quarters of declines, the California Association of Realtors reported. The percentage of homebuyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California was unchanged from the third quarter of 2013 at 32 percent, but was down from 48 percent in fourth-quarter 2012, according to the association’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI).’
‘While the California homebuyers had a window of opportunity to make very affordable home purchase from 2009 (Q1 HAI at 56 percent) through early 2013 (Q1 HAI at 44 percent), 32 percent is the long-run average for California’s HAI and nothing to get alarmed about.’
‘California housing affordability hit a record high of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012 but has steadily declined since then’
A “record high”? How about these people in the article above that paid $25k in Palo Alto in the 70’s? That’s about what my parents paid for a house in north Texas in 1963.
I believe we established long ago that CA Realtors are the most corrupt and deceptive in the entire NAR organization. They actively promote their own distorted data on the internet to deceive the public.
From the report “The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home fell 6.2 percent from December’s revised median price of $438,090 to $410,990 in January. January’s price was 22.1 percent higher than the revised $336,650 recorded in January 2013″
Prices are dropping. When the rear view mirror pig of past price gains from 2013 moves through the pythons they’ll have nothing but bad news to report. Played out the same last time, whoopee we gonna make some more money now.
These numbers should be looked at closely:
‘Despite a sharp jump in sales of upper-end properties, Sonoma County home sales slowed in January. Buyers purchased 272 single-family homes last month… Sales fell 5 percent from a year ago and were the lowest for January in three years.’
‘But the month featured a tale of two markets. Sales of homes priced below $400,000 declined 45 percent in January from a year ago.’
In contrast, 57 homes sold for $700,000 or more, compared to 21 a year earlier. Of last month’s transactions, 22 homes sold for $1 million or more, compared to eight a year ago.’
‘For January, the median sales price was $461,000, down less than 1 percent from December but 26 percent higher than a year ago.’
Big declines in lower price sales, big increases in higher priced sales. What does that do to the median?
“What does that do to the median?”
The morons are cratering their own market. That’s how stupid these people are.
You know… it’s like fishermen overfishing a fishery. They all want to take as much as they can get. And imagine if they had tight control over politicians making the rules. They’d fish and keep going until every last living thing was pulled from the fishery. And then… nothing.
I wonder if the current FIRE sector leaders - those who rose to the top in the second Robber Baron era - have enough self control or wisdom to try and pursue sustainable fisheries.
Hmmm.
Must be the missing third part to that old saying,
Give a man a fish, feed him for a day.
Teach him to fish and feed him for a lifetime.
Teach him to fish well enough and there won’t be any fish.
And imagine if they had tight control over politicians making the rules. They’d fish and keep going until every last living thing was pulled from the fishery.
Actually if they had tight control and were organized with rule of law they would probably do something sustainable. It’s when you have no control and no organization that it’s every man for himself and tragedies of the commons occur.
Interesting! I live in Sonoma Co, specifically in Santa Rosa, dropped out of the market nearly two years ago in disgust as it was impossible to compete with 100% cash flippers and specuvestors for a typical middle class house, am sure there are many others who gave up on the idea of buying.
The Press Democrat is always 100% pro RE industry and they only interview RE agents, brokers etc. for their stories and never a word on the damage flippers, specuvestors, corporate landlords, etc. have done to our neighborhoods. The springtime scenario discussed may not be so cheery with birds, grass, etc, as we are in the midst of a SEVERE drought, but of course no mention of the havoc that will wreak upon the local economy if it continues as forecast…
Your neighbor in Sebastopol agrees.
Lefty
Ronnie…you have a few mixed metaphors going on there. Are you saying prices are dropping so you are going to make some money? How do you do that?
That’s about what I paid for a house near Scranton in the ’70s, right around the time a gallon of gasoline was $1. About 1.5 x income.
Now that California home prices are at a record high level relative to rents and incomes, the PTB must do all they can to prop them up at these levels, as otherwise investors would lose boatloads of money.
There just aren’t ENOUGH gullible or credit-worthy bagholders to go around this time.
I think their “records” go back to 1988, when they started tracking affordability.
I’m always skeptical of “record” highs/lows without the time qualifier.
Highest on record since data was kept going back to 1988 is much different than an unqualified comment about record data.
Just like “record” temperatures, as opposed to the highest temperatures since records started being kept in ____.
BTW, my great aunt bought a house in Old Palo Alto (current zillow value is about $2.3MM…which I bet they would get–it’s a nice lot). In any event, the tax assessment is less than $100k currently, with property taxes less than $2k per year.
She used to comment on how when she and her husband bought the place in 1946, it was REALLY expensive at $24k.
It wouldn’t have sold for anything close to $25k in the 70’s.
Post a link of it. At least substantiate yourself.
‘A fire at a San Jose home that was converted into a multi-family residence Monday has displaced 15 people. Experts said the fire exposes a dangerous trend tied to the city’s rising cost of living, among the highest in the nation.’
‘The unusually dangerous situation for firefighters is becoming more common in San Jose, one of the least affordable places to live in the U.S. “I think this is probably the worst I’ve seen it, and I’ve been involved in legal aid since 1989,” housing attorney Guy Caputo said, describing a trend caused by rising rents and a shortage of affordable housing.’
‘Caputo estimates about 10 percent of the homes in San Jose have been converted into multiple family living spaces, and he says the number of people living in a home is going up.’
“Fifteen wouldn’t be unusual and sometimes as many as 20 in a three bedroom,” Caputo said.’
Sounds kinda third world-ish.
Par for the course in the DC area as well. In the middle-class areas, “renovation” is aimed solely at accomodating another rental income. I’m talking the Glacier Bay bathroom in the basement, laying paver squares to create an extra lane in the driveway to accomodate another white van, buying some cheap appliances to “renovate” the kitchen and move the old stuff to the basement and create a second kitchen, and the grandaddy of them all: getting your buddies together to add a second floor on top.
“accommodating [sic] another rental income”
Typical sign of an overpriced housing market.
Typical sign of an overpriced housing market ??
How is it overpriced ??? Its really a sign of demand for a roof over your head and the lack thereof…
You can find that dynamic in many places including remote ones…
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDwQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.weeklystandard.com%2Fblogs%2Fhighest-rents-found-oil-boom-towns-north-dakota_781639.html&ei=wUIGU6-lJ8S7qQH194DwDw&usg=AFQjCNFdQOQ1B9QscuNbQRs8gZbz6qlfWg&sig2=jgM2ag4J3hVfzftyh9Z3jw&bvm=bv.61725948,d.aWM
It’s not normal to have to rent out the basement to afford a house. See Vancouver.
In Wilmington, Ca I have it first hand that it is not unusual for telephone installers to run maybe eight or more telephone lines to one house. Not only is the house and the garage packed with families sometimes the backyard is also packed with camper shells set up on sawhorses and each camper shell has a family living in it.
These people living in these places are from south of the border and when they make it to California they get to “live it up” by having their own telephone - which is a big deal for them because where they came from the idea of having one’s own telephone was out of the question. Plus, in California, there is offered to the low income population something called “Lifeline Service” which is cheap phone service (it used to be eight dollars a month but that was a long time ago so I can’t say what the rates are now).
From what I understand the owners of the houses (and the garages and the camper shells) collect rent from each family and in return the renters get access to the house’s bathroom and kitchen facilities.
A clarification: What I wrote was the way it was some twenty-or-so years ago. I have no doubt the living situations for these people have not changed a bit but the situation regarding their telephone service probably has changed a lot in that landlines are being replaced by wireless.
Ya think? I live in a one bedroom with den apartment. The unit next to me is occupied by four adults and at least five children.
Overcrowding is a big problem in CA.
Not enough housing supply.
The ratio of people/housing units is the highest or second highest in the country.
With 4.4 million defaulted, excess and underwater housing units in CA, there isn’t a “supply” problem. Well… maybe there is but not in the way you think.
Riverside, CA Housing Demand Down 15%YoY; Falls Through 2008 Floor
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Riverside-home-value/r_47401/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D47401%26el%3D0
Used house sales people call us weekly, urging us to part with our cash. We are now thinking of making offers to lease the properties we like.
Lol^
Temecula, CA Housing Prices Crumble 16%YoY; Inventory Explodes 115%
http://www.movoto.com/temecula-ca/market-trends/
“Sellers Are Thinking They’ll Get More If They Wait”
They’ll be right so long as real estate keeps going up.
With the way demand is collapsing and the inventory cooking away, these people are on a collision course with reality.
“The fact someone can stay in a house knowing that they are there without the owner’s permission is flat-out wrong, Didier said, adding that many valuable lessons were learned. ‘If you find out someone is in your home illegally, no matter how horrible the sob story, you have to get them out,’ she said.”
Unless, of course, they stopped paying a mortgage. Then we have a victim on our hands!
A buyer snapped up 202 Emerson Street in an all-cash deal for a cool $1.6 million, which included the bars on a door, cracks in the foundation and some missing bricks on the 1,100 square foot home. The house is also just steps from noisy Caltrain tracks.
The home last sold 40 years ago for $25.000, but now sold at 6,400 percent of that. One reason? It sits just three blocks off of University Ave.
If the owner would have been a bitter renter for 40 years ,he would have made zero back paying ‘throwing money away’ renting.
REAL ESTATE investment is the best investment you will ever make.
Darn, you’re right! All I need is a time machine, go back to when Palo Alto was priced like the rest of the country, buy a house, sit there for 40 years and I’d have a million bucks. Getting rich is easy.
Most people aren’t very good at understanding compound interest, if a saver put $300/mo into an S&P 500 index fund, 40 years ago, magic, $1.6 million. But who wants to be a bitter saver?
While I like to fantasize about a lovely place to live, I find it hard to argue with the Schiller graphic that plots house prices vs. the CPI and concludes that homes don’t outperform in the long run. It seems in our boom and bust state that one is just as likely as the other.
house prices vs. the CPI and concludes that homes don’t outperform in the long run ??
I don’t think most people who buy a home do it because it may or may not beat the CPI…
Yet that is what the OP intimates with his assertion that you, too, can be like this lucky winner if only you buy now.
Well you have a point there…There are Pimps in every profession…
So how many used houses have you sold this year CCC?
And how about Sargeant Schultz?
0. I’m not in that trade.
Realtors struggle with the truth.
Are you sure about that?
‘The sharp rise in home prices in 2013 caused two conflicting results: The return of positive home equity for hundreds of thousands of borrowers and considerably weaker affordability for an equally large pool of potential homebuyers.’
“There’s going to be a reality check in the spring in terms of realizing that what we saw in 2013 is not a real market,” said Daren Blomquist of RealtyTrac, a real estate sales and data website. “It’s a nice bounce-back market, but ultimately you need the biggest pool of potential homebuyers out there to be able to afford those homes.”
‘RealtyTrac found that the estimated monthly house payment for a median-priced, three-bedroom home purchased at the end of 2013 was a whopping 21 percent higher than it was at the end of 2012 in more than 300 U.S. counties. Some metro regions, especially in California and parts of Michigan, saw monthly house payments rise about 50 percent from a year ago.’
“Home prices were boosted by cash buyers in 2013, and as the cash buyers move out of the market in 2014, the buyers left are not going to be able to afford the home prices as readily in some of these markets,” added Blomquist.’
‘The inventory jumps, however, are largest in the formerly hardest hit areas, where investors depleted the distressed supply during 2012 and 2013. Phoenix, Las Vegas and Sacramento, Calif., are all seeing major increases in supply, but still lackluster sales, as investors have now priced themselves out of the market. It remains to be seen if there is enough regular demand from buyers using credit.’
‘investors have now priced themselves out of the market’
And no one could have seen it coming!
‘RealtyTrac found that the estimated monthly house payment for a median-priced, three-bedroom home purchased at the end of 2013 was a whopping 21 percent higher than it was at the end of 2012 in more than 300 U.S. counties. Some metro regions, especially in California and parts of Michigan, saw monthly house payments rise about 50 percent from a year ago.’
‘While the California homebuyers had a window of opportunity to make very affordable home purchase from 2009 (Q1 HAI at 56 percent) through early 2013 (Q1 HAI at 44 percent), 32 percent is the long-run average for California’s HAI and nothing to get alarmed about.’
To bad. If you aren’t smart enough to know when to buy a house like 2009 when housing bottomed, you will either be a bitter renter for decades or pay the asking price for 2014 going rates. Nothing is free in life!!
‘Rihanna Almost Broke And Bankrupt in 2009: Stupid L.A. Home Purchase’
‘Rihanna ultimately ended losing $2 million when she resold the house.’
how do you lose $ on a 2009 purchase?
By paying in excess of $40/sq ft for a used depreciating house.
“One homeowner who spoke with KPIX 5 bought north of downtown for $32,000 in 1976. Last year, her neighbor across the street sold for three million.”
And how much would the homeowner who sold the house for $3 million have gotten back renting during this years? How many people ever get a pay check for being renters for life? How much is Housing Analyst going to get back for being a renter for life? $0.20 cent pay day after renting for 50 years?
The only thing that matters is what would you do today.
‘In the San Francisco Bay Area, home “sales plunged to a six-year low”…. while prices dropped 4.3 percent from a month earlier. (Los Angeles Times) Additionally, sales of new and existing homes and condos fell to their “lowest level for the month since 2008″, the peak of the financial crisis.
Similarly, Dataquick announced that “January was the worst month for home sales in nearly 3-years for Southern California.” Here’s more from Dataquick:
“Southern California logged its lowest January home sales in three years…The median price paid for a home dipped from December…The number of new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month (was) down 21.4 percent…in December, and down 9.9 percent…in January 2013.”…
“The economy is growing, but Southland home sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis for four consecutive months now and remain well below average. Why? We’re still putting a lot of the blame on the low inventory. But mortgage availability, the rise in interest rates and higher home prices matter, too,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.” (Southland Home Sales Drop in January; Price Picture Mixed), Dataquick’
‘Low inventory is the favorite excuse of realtors who want to conceal what’s really going on in the market. The fact is, the higher rates (since the Fed announced its scaling back of QE) and higher prices have weakened demand and sent moneybags investors racing for the exits. Weak fundamentals (Stagnant wages and high unemployment) have added to housing’s troubles. Unemployment remains stubbornly high in the Golden State. It’s currently locked at 8.7 percent, a full percentage point above the national average.’
‘Sales have also dropped sharply in Las Vegas and Phoenix, which were red-hot in 2013. In Vegas, “sales dropped in December to the lowest level for that month in six years … Total December home sales were the lowest for that month since December 2007.” (Dataquick)’
‘In Phoenix, it’s the same deal…’
A home in Los Angeles Median asking price costed in Feb .2009 $369.125
Feb.2014 $480,000
Increase of 28.16%
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/los-angeles/
How many of the bitter renters sat and waited for prices to decline in FEB.2009? How many took Housing Analyst advice in Feb.2009?
Hey King, if you have any high quality rentals in the IE, let me know. 2000 sqft sfh, pool/spa, updated kitchens and bathrooms. Nice areas. $250000 yearly income. I’ll write you a cheque for a whole year’s rent in lieu of a security deposit.
CCC,
Are realtors liars?
I thought my offer was generous. Willing and able renter here, ready to feed the landlord king’s maw. All he has to have is a place commensurate with our lifestyle.
You sure about that?
Try to hook up with an honest landlord.
REAL ESTATE: It’s getting tougher to buy a house
Inland Southern California has pushed past the affordability level that allows median income households to buy a house, a new report from RealtyTrac suggests.
Home prices jumped 26 percent year-over-year in Riverside County over the last quarter of 2013, putting the median at $236,667, a gain that was good for home sellers but pinched the pocketbook of many middle-income wage earners here.
At that price, home buyers would have to make more than $54,096 to qualify for a three-bedroom home that would require a minimum $1,127 monthly to pay the mortgage, insurance, taxes and maintenance.
Riverside County’s median income per household was $52,621 in late 2013, some $1,500 short of the required minimum.
Only one year earlier, home buyers needed to make only $38,982 to qualify for a home. The median price in late 2012 was $188,138.
RealtyTrac’s housing affordability analysis on 325 counties across the nation says the estimated monthly house payment for a median priced home purchased in the fourth quarter of 2013 increased 21 percent on average from one year ago.
The minimum qualifying income to buy a median-priced home in Los Angeles County is now more than $95,000, up from $68,000 one year ago, the analysis found.
In Orange County, the 21 percent price gain to push the median price of a home in late 2013 up to $514,333 means one needed a minimum income of $117,560 to qualify for a mortgage, up from $88,198 the year earlier. The minimum qualifying income to buy a median-priced home in San Diego County is $93,142; some $32,000 more than the median household income.
Home prices rose 29 percent year to year from $154,000 to $199,167, and so have the monthly payments. But the median price home that now costs $948 on average per month to own — it was $665 the year earlier — is still falling into the affordable category for wage earners there.
http://www.pe.com/business/business-headlines/20140219-real-estate-its-getting-tougher-to-buy-a-house.ece
Buy now or be pricest out for decades.
‘Home prices dropped in three out of four New Jersey metro areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors at the end of the fourth quarter. Data compiled by the NAR showed median home prices for a single-family home in the Newark-Union area fell 1.1 percent from the previous year to $357,000. They dropped more dramatically in the Trenton-Ewing (down 5.7 percent to $232,900) and Atlantic City (down 4.7 percent to $217,200) areas.’
‘Foreclosure proceedings began on 4,617 homes in New Jersey during January, RealtyTrac reported. That figure is up more than 79 percent from January 2012 and 62 percent from December 2013.’
“The foreclosure rebound pattern is not only showing up in judicial states (in which foreclosures go through the court system) like New Jersey, where foreclosure activity reached a 40-month high in January,” Blomquist said, “but also some non-judicial states like California, where foreclosure starts jumped 57 percent from a year ago, following 17 consecutive months of annual decreases.”
‘Twenty-two states saw a sharp increase in the number of filings, including Maryland (126 percent), Connecticut (82 percent), California (57 percent), and Pennsylvania (39 percent).’
Again landlord, what would you do today? Why aren’t you doing it? No money?
Blomquist should know better than to NOT qualify the CA data as being affected in January 2013 from the Homeowner Bill of Rights start.
Corelogic put out their “MarketPulse” data today:
Percent of loans that are 90+ days delinquent:
Maryland: 7.0%
Connecticut: 6.6%
California: 2.8%
Pennsylvania: 5.6%
You failed to mention the millions of defaults held up and set aside in California.
What about those?
IE LANDLORD KING: Buy now or be pricest out for decades.
People need to understand why prices have done what they have done. Just looking at charts and expecting symmetry without understanding why the chart looks like it does, is flying blind.
I’ll recite the keywords:
1) Securitization - creates perverse incentives.
2) Federal Reserve intervention.
3) Government intervention.
4) Foreign investors.
5) Domestic investors.
The core of it all is securitization. Lenders willing to make huge loans that they don’t care about having repaid. Layer these other issue on top of that and I think it creates a perfect storm.
If someone got in - probably serendipitously - before these issues reached a perfect storm, yes, they made out like bandits.
If someone gets in now… do they think they’ll see the same price gains? I certainly don’t have a crystal ball, but it seems quite unlikely. Especially with the government response of pushing more debt to counter too much debt! And other than that, with Congress utterly derelict in its duty, the central bank is left to run wild with Operation Borrow And Print.
And on top of that the depredation of young people via massive student debt and… I don’t see the perfect storm intensifying. Or even continuing.
I could be wrong. Like I say, I don’t have a crystal ball. But my point stands - I think people need to understand why prices have done what they have done in order to understand what might happen in the future.
ACTUALLY… what was the actual result for someone who simply owned a house? Higher assessments and higher property taxes. So for someone just owning a house… they actually took a net worth hit as a result of the house.
For someone who looks to live in the same area? No benefit - they sell for a high price… but they also have to BUY for a high price. I’ve talked to homeowners who live in DC metro who lament these exact issues.
There’s one scenario where the actual asset holder actually made out like a bandit in the housing bubble - and that’s if he sold and moved to Oil City.
The only people who consistently made out like bandits from high house prices were the FIRE sector - the people who make money off the debt and the transactions.
Wow. It’s so ingrained to think that having a more expensive house somehow always benefits the asset holder. It really doesn’t. Even I unthinkingly fell for it.
Higher assessments and higher property taxes… they actually took a net worth hit as a result of the house ??
Not in California….Prop #13….I would also add that many high real estate tax states have other offsetting relief such as no State Income Tax or no Sales Tax…
For someone who looks to live in the same area? No benefit - they sell for a high price… but they also have to BUY for a high price ??
Not necessarily….Some downsize…Some move to more rural area…Some move to rentals…
my county went up 4.4% and will go up again this yr>>so gov workers can retire at 55
my county went up 4.4% and will go up again this yr>>so gov workers can retire at 55 ???
Which is exactly why Prop #13 passed in California…Every county assessor and the politicians saw the real estate tax as their own little money printing machine…
Want a new county hospital…Raise taxes….Want a new library…Raise Taxes…Want a new Civic Center…Raise taxes…Gotta have more police…Raise taxes….Gotta have Fire Station on every corner…Raise taxes…
which state will go bk 1st IL ,CA or RI ??????????
“which state will go bk 1st IL ,CA or RI ??????????”
I realize it’s only a start, but….
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21595005-california-has-won-breathing-space-under-jerry-brown-now-he-should-tackle-taxes-debt-and-red
Earlier this month Mr Brown unveiled a budget with a surplus for 2013-14 forecast at $4.2 billion.
The tight-fisted Mr Brown has imposed a measure of fiscal discipline on his state. In 2012, to many observers’ surprise, he persuaded Californians to pass Proposition 30, a temporary income- and sales-tax rise. He has strong-armed California’s Democratic legislators twice: first to accept deep cuts to cherished programmes such as child care, and then, once the deficit was plugged, to curb their spendthrift impulses. Even California’s nearly extinct Republicans express grudging admiration.
how about pensions for 100k lifegards
after a year w/o the bernck the debt will all come back
“Home sales in California were essentially flat in January, due to a limited supply of homes”
Not if you’re into foreclosures.
just had to say………….
Sum ting wong
bahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Just in case you never saw the originals:
The US response to the Asiana crash:
http://boardingarea.com/viewfromthewing/2013/07/13/how-a-san-francisco-tv-station-was-tricked-into-identifying-the-asiana-214-pilots-as-a-racist-joke/
The Korean Response to a Southwest Landing problem:
http://boardingarea.com/viewfromthewing/2013/07/28/korean-tv-skewers-southwest-laguardia-landing-gear-incident-capt-kent-parker-wright/