Bits Bucket for March 4, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
How much are you underwater Hoax?
I am swimming in cash and just added another $9,000 in realized gains this morning.
Let’s see you sell some of those iron bars from hour windows in your meth neighborhood for a 580% gain!
Cha-Ching!
Got Cash?
I’m only trying to help you Bill. I know you have the cash to buy the home of your dreams. You’ll take the plunge when you’re good and ready.
And I paid cash for my Chicago condo, monthly maintenance is less than $500 (this isn’t New York City here), so I’m not underwater, and looking at the transaction history of other units in my building, neither are my neighbors.
IL. prop taxes, maint. and fees kill any benefit from buying there.
You paid cash? I think you mean cash for the down payment plus a mortgage.
Aim, babe. Like I’ve said. Yer hooked on a “Feeling”.
3,836 followers on Twitter now. How many followers do you have?
I can’t even follow your bizzare logic. Why would I follow you on Twitter?
I write for MarketWatch, which according to Alexa is ranked as the 577th most visited website worldwide and 166th most visited in the U.S.
Thousands of people read my MarketWatch articles every day. My Twitter feed is just a side show, but anything that increases my MarketWatch readership is a good thing.
Awesome!
“Thousands of people read my MarketWatch articles every day.”
I like to visit MarketWatch too, but I really get tired of reading reality manipulations. For example my favorite, “Households have been repairing their balance sheets.” The reality is that households are getting their debt discharged in bankruptcy court, and the debtors then have the gall to whine if they’re faced with income taxes on their forgiven debt. Really??
Why doesn’t MarketWatch tell the truth, i.e., households are getting their debt discharged in bankruptcy court?
“Why doesn’t MarketWatch tell the truth, i.e”
Exactly, like when someone says they paid cash and they actually have a mortgage.
“Awesome!”
You’re right, I am pretty awesome.
One of these days, I’ll post some e-mail from satisfied home buyers thanking me for my helpful articles guiding them through today’s unpredictable home buying market.
The reality is that households are getting their debt discharged in bankruptcy court, and the debtors then have the gall to whine if they’re faced with income taxes on their forgiven debt.
I don’t think that’s true, at least regarding BKs. On a short sale, yeah. But my understanding regarding BKs is that there are no 1099’s mailed afterwards. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.
Wow Aim, check the ego on you. Calling yerself awesome has as much cred as someone declaring themselves “humble”.
Me thinks yer not the real Amy. Thus the Hoax.
Why The Number of Twitter Followers You Have Is Irrelevant
Posted on August 5, 2013 by Guest Author
There is a particular personality type out there that would rather have one or two extremely close friends than a dozen superficial acquaintances. It’s a case of quality over quantity. Much in the same way, just because you have a huge Twitter following doesn’t mean you have a good following.
Quality vs. Quantity
In this case, quality is defined as likely prospects, people who actually read your tweets, click on your links, and get involved. Look at it this way; if you have a Facebook account, surely there are people out there who sent you a Friend request that you’ve accepted solely so that you could shut them up. You don’t look at their pages, you don’t even have them actively on your news feed. That’s not much of a friendship, Facebook style or otherwise.
Much in the same way, Twitter followers can range from everything from spam accounts to dead accounts to people who simply follow you automatically, to people who actually do follow you. Wouldn’t it be better to have 500 Twitter followers who are willing to engage you, than have 5,000 followers who never even read your Tweets?
Some would say “No’. The more, the merrier!”, and perhaps they have a point. If you can brag about having 59,000 followers, you really don’t have to add the fact that none of them actually interact with you or your tweets. A lie by omission? Maybe.
http://thedrilldown.com/2013/08/05/why-the-number-of-twitter-followers-you-have-is-irrelevant/ - 40k -
“Wouldn’t it be better to have 500 Twitter followers who are willing to engage you, than have 5,000 followers who never even read your Tweets?”
are there really people who want to “engage” with that many people? I guess I have become a very anti-social person.
According to the sites that calculate value from Twitter accounts, Amy, your account monetizes out to $84. Whoopee.
Everyone has there own fears to deal with. Some of us can have a good time, live high on the hog AND rent a nice house. Just like I can lease a new car every two years and still save $1200 a month for my nest egg.
A Chicago condo will never feel like a real home.
Did you take out your low-cost student loan for a degree or just for the cash?
U.S. News
Student Loans Entice Borrowers More for Cash Than a Degree
Low-Cost Debt Proves a Draw for Some Caught Up in Weak Job Market
By Josh Mitchell
March 2, 2014 7:21 p.m. ET
Some Americans caught in the weak job market are lining up for federal student aid, not for education that boosts their employment prospects but for the chance to take out low-cost loans, sometimes with little intention of getting a degree.
Take Ray Selent, a 30-year-old former retail clerk in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. He was unemployed in 2012 when he enrolled as a part-time student at Broward County’s community college. That allowed him to borrow thousands of dollars to pay rent to his mother, cover his cellphone bill and catch the occasional movie.
“The only way I feel I can survive financially is by going back to school and putting myself in more student debt,” says Mr. Selent, who has since added $8,000 in student debt from living expenses. Returning to school also gave Mr. Selent a reprieve on the $400 a month he owed from previous student debt because the federal government doesn’t require payments while borrowers are in school.
…
“The only way I feel I can survive financially is by going back to school and putting myself into more debt.”
Here you get to see first hand our educational system at work churning out debt slaves.
A banker’s dream.
An employer’s dream also. An employer gets to pick and choose among the financial desperate and the more in debt a job applicant is the more financially desperate he will be.
but it’s killing the diversification of your income streams, mr. banker.
these kidz will not be renting money from the bank to buy $500,000 starter homes. but even deep in student loan debt, these stoodents retain some level of geographic mobility.
wouldn’t you agree that chaining them to one location with a 30 year note would be a better guarantee of a stream of interest payments flowing your way?
He gets it either way.
Why do you assume that student loans will disqualify him from mortgage? These are consumers and they will consume; education, auto and mortgage. Mr Banker wins every time.
valid points, but consider how uppity these millenials are getting about adhering to their proper role in the american economy.
they are driving less, not buying cars, renting in the city centers of large urban metros. some of them are betraying their financial duty to mr. banker by embracing voluntary frugality, living well below their means, and committing the heretical act of paying off their student loans early.
all while reserving the right to relocate at the end of a lease.
this is just downright un-american.
“Mr. Banker wins every time.”
God’s plan. I set up the game and I set up the rules of the game and millions are willing to stand in line in order to play.
I don’t go to them, they come to me.
People are smart.
Oh, one other thing:
Since it is my game and the rules are my rules one of my rules is I get to change the rules of the game as it suits me.
“You can’t lose with the stuff I use.” - Rev Ike
He who has the gold makes the rules.
– Tyler Perry
I believe that saying predates Mr Perry by decades, if not centuries.
Yes, that golden rule is as old as Jesus’s golden rule and perhaps older.
Jesus’ golden rule.
committing the heretical act of paying off their student loans early.
Well, we know that part’s not true. The guy even said he’s going back to school (more debt) in part to avoid paying it (more debt on top of original debt?).
My favorite bumper sticker:
“I owe, I owe, so it’s off to work I go.”
He works, I reap.
I like it.
He works, I reap.
Mr. Banker, the true grim reaper.
Mr. Banker, the true grim reaper.
“You might be a king or a little street sweeper, but sooner or later you dance with the reaper.”
Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey
“The only way I feel I can survive financially is by going back to school and putting myself in more student debt,” says Mr. Selent, who has since added $8,000 in student debt from living expenses.”
The easiest way out of this hole is down, so I’m going to keep digging.
He is betting on government to make it easier to default on student debt. He has the trend of Obama administration on his side.
‘government to make it easier to default on student debt’
Think of the larger trend. Detroit can stiff bond holders and pensioners. Why? Because they can’t possibly pay it back. Stop paying your mortgage, live there for a few years and then maybe some settlement with some government will cut the balance. You can’t pay it back anyway; let’s make some politician look good.
Here we see “students” (if you read the article, thousands of them aren’t even earning credits!) taking advantage of the easiest loan out there. If you have a pulse they will give you a student loan. Many aren’t going to pay this back. They don’t know how it’s going to play out, but the vast majority borrowing like this have no plan to pay it back.
And why not? Look at DC. Several years ago, we had an insurmountable amount of government obligations. Now it’s much more. Do you think these politicians are unaware that we have well over $100 trillion to come up with? They know, but they are acting just like these students, except on a much larger scale.
This is how the world really works:
‘Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could have done more to fight the country’s financial crisis and that he struggled to find the right way to communicate with markets.’
‘Bernanke received at least $250,000 for his appearance at the financial conference staged by National Bank of Abu Dhabi , the UAE’s largest bank, according to sources familiar the matter. NBAD did not announce the fee.’
‘Bernanke’s speaking fee is similar to one received by his predecessor Alan Greenspan for an Abu Dhabi speaking engagement in 2008, the sources said.’
‘Greenspan embarked on a series of lucrative speeches after he stepped down, and Bernanke now appears to be doing the same. He is scheduled to speak at an event in South Africa on Wednesday and in Houston on Friday.’
‘Another former heavyweight in U.S. economic policy, ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, spoke at the Abu Dhabi event.’
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernanke-says-u-set-3-percent-growth-093333106–sector.html
It’s not what you say
that determines the pay
but who you are
and where you say it.
Selling debt obligations internationally is what the US does best and most profitably. It’s 21st century slavery and it’s why your government incentivizes your own financial suicide.
As a DebtSlave, who is your owner?
It’s not as if the students are turning down career offers because they want to feel more educated. College is the only “job” that these youngsters can find. And it’s not a new phenomenon. When I was an undergrad in the early 90’s, liberal arts majors were going for masters’ degrees because it was the only job they could find.
Now everyone has to do it.
And this will continue until there are enough career-type jobs.
And what makes you think that’s going to happen?
It’s not as if the students are turning down career offers because they want to feel more educated.
Yup. It’s either go back to school or a part time job at The Gap. Or more likely both.
…or
1. mow lawns
2. deliver pizza
3. mow MORE lawns
4. paint a house
5. start a cleaning business
…see there is work out there. Being production feels good and creates an income
i retired a couple of years ago from a career of selling advertising. i dealt with customers spending 50k and up and my customers were exclusively contractors (plumbing, electrical, roofers, etc.) these were the most successful ones, obviously, with an advertising budget that large. Many of them didn’t go to college and were open and proud of it. too bad there’s such a stigma attached to getting your fingernails dirty. I’m a big advocate of telling young people to learn a trade. that’s a guaranteed job.
Being strapped to decades of debt will never FEEL like a real life.
“Being debt free is like winning the lottery EVERYDAY”.
Got that right!!
I’ve said this before, but I purposely had my wife do her master’s degrees and subsequent education ENTIRELY on student loans. And I encouraged her to borrow as much as possible.
Then we put her loans on IBR (income based repayment). In 10 years, they will be forgiven via PSLF (public service loan forgiveness). Her total balance is well over 100k, not including interest, but since she makes only a shade over 70k and will probably only get to about 90k during the repayment period, she’ll repay less than half of what she borrowed and not even touch the interest.
Furthermore, when the gov’t calculates how much she can afford to repay, it uses AGI. To keep her AGI low, we put max out a (traditional) IRA for her, contribute to a 403(b), and her pension contributions are also excluded.
Since we file taxes separately (Married filing sep) my income doesn’t count. And my income is 75% of our income.
Long story short, she pays a couple hundred a month on borrowing of over 100k. And in 10 years of payments, bam, she owes zero. She won’t even have to pay taxes on the loan forgiveness.
(public service loan forgiveness).
I’ve said it before and will say it again it pays to work for the government in any low or mid level job compared to private industry.
it takes 20 years in private industry and you’ll probably get laid off more than once
You a 3rd or a 4th year associate, Joe? Is that the going rate for your level in DC?
I’m 4th year. I’m at a boutique now, but standard top firm pay for 4th year is 220-240. My firm is not lock step and i dont get cravath (market rate) bonus anymore. Which is good because many firms want 2100 billable hours write downs to earn full bonus. I’ll probably get about the same as i wouldve at Jenner, but more salary, less bonus.
but since she makes only a shade over 70k
Not bad, that’s what assistant school principals get paid in my little burg. I know Software Engineers who are paid less than that.
Is it safe to assume at this point that the emerging markets crisis is over?
Emerging-Market Stocks Sink on Ukraine as Russia Slumps
By Rajhkumar K Shaaw, Zahra Hankir and Julia Leite
Mar 3, 2014 2:17 PM PT
Emerging-market stocks fell the most in a month as Russia’s threat to invade Ukraine spurred the worst selloff in the Micex Index (INDEXCF) since 2008 and sent the ruble tumbling even as the central bank raised interest rates.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slumped 1.6 percent to 950.68 in New York, the biggest decline since Jan. 27. Russia’s benchmark plunged as much as 13 percent and the ruble depreciated 1.7 percent against the dollar. Stocks in Poland, Romania and Hungary decreased more than 3 percent. The Kospi index slid the most since Feb. 4 after North Korea fired two missiles and data showed South Korean exports missed estimates.
Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Korea are raising concern that slowing economic growth and Federal Reserve stimulus cuts will spur capital outflows from emerging markets. The U.S. is weighing sanctions against Russia after President Vladimir Putin got lawmakers to approve troop deployments, while Secretary of State John Kerry headed to Kiev.
“There’s a lot of geopolitical uncertainty out there,” Patrick Chovanec, the New York-based chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management Group LLC, said by phone. His firm manages $14.1 billion in assets. “It’s a matter of perception of global risk. Markets are unsettled by things they didn’t expect.”
…
I agree. And locals are the folks who are stepping aside and renting as the all-cash Chinese and Canadian investor herd comes in to snap up California residential real estate at premium prices.
Are they renting because they know better, or because they couldn’t qualify to get a loan big enough to by an overpriced California house? I ask because we all know what the masses did in the days of NINJA loans.
Both types are prevalent.
ft dot com
March 2, 2014 5:04 pm
To see the problems of emerging markets look to Turkey
By Ruchir Sharma
It is usually smart locals not foreign speculators who get out first, writes Ruchir Sharma
©AFP
Not so long ago Turkey was the very symbol of the resurgence of emerging markets. Today it encapsulates their three most critical flaws: rising indebtedness, large current account deficits and stale political regimes.
When Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, took office in 2003 he was quick to establish himself as a leading reformer by focusing on economic rather than controversial religious issues, which some had feared given his roots in political Islam. The results were impressive. By 2010 public debt had fallen from 90 per cent of gross domestic product to 40 per cent; inflation – more than 50 per cent in the 1990s – also tumbled and today stands in single digits.
He was not alone. Together with Vladimir Putin of Russia and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Mr Erdogan formed a populist-turned-pragmatist trio that help set the stage for an emerging market revival. As budget deficits and inflation were brought under control, interest rates came down, and the average growth rate of emerging economies doubled to more than 8 per cent by 2007.
But now the average GDP growth rate of Turkey, and the emerging world, has fallen back to about 4 per cent and Mr Erdogan and his peers are relying on more debt and short-term capital flows to bolster economic growth. This form of resuscitation is fraught with major risk. Since the second world war, nations that aggressively increased private credit as a share of GDP by 5 per cent a year or more for five straight years have often run into financial trouble. Today Turkey, along with Brazil, Thailand and China, is in this danger zone.
…
“To see the problems of emerging markets look to Turkey”
A cursory look around my place, and I can’t think of anything made in Turkey; no cars, no clothes, no durables, no software. Can’t say I’ve ever flown in their aircraft or seen their space station on the television either.
They are likely stuck in that ether; can’t make it better than Germany or the U.S., and can’t make it cheaper than China. The Balkans face the same challenges.
Turkey is Europe’s Mexico: a close source of relatively cheap labor.
A cursory look around my place, and I can’t think of anything made in Turkey
I believe that their target market is the EU and not the USA. From wikipedia:
“Turkish brands like Beko and Vestel are among the largest producers of consumer electronics and home appliances in Europe”
Also:
“Turkey has a large automotive industry, which produced 1,072,339 motor vehicles in 2012, ranking as the 16th largest producer in the world.[124] The Turkish shipbuilding industry realized exports worth US$1.2 billion in 2011″
“Other key sectors of the Turkish economy are banking, construction, home appliances, electronics, textiles, oil refining, petrochemical products, food, mining, iron and steel, and machine industry”
Thanks for the follow-up!
I have heard of Turkish Hashish.
Forbes Asia 3/02/2014 @ 1:30PM
Emerging Market Banking Crises Are Next
Financial headlines have rightly been dominated by the largest 7-day sell-off of the Chinese yuan on record. Everyone’s speculating whether it’s been a deliberate move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) or not. The consensus is that it’s been PBOC initiated to shake out carry trade speculators who’ve used low US interest rates to borrow low-yielding US dollars and buy the higher-yielding yuan and yuan-denominated assets. This before a move to increase the daily trading band for the yuan. A minority believe the yuan has unraveled of its own accord driven by a shortage of US dollars leading to the liquidation of yuan instruments. Either way, carry trades are being quickly unwound.
Asia Confidential thinks the vast majority of commentary has missed the underlying reasons for emerging market currency volatility, with the yuan being the latest example. What we’re really witnessing is a major rebalancing of global economic trade. Prior to 2008, the US had a massive consumption bubble, financed by its current account deficit which exported U.S. dollars and fueled global trade. Since the crisis, US consumption has slowed but QE has stepped in to provide the U.S. dollar liquidity needed for world trade. With the tapering of QE, that dollar liquidity is diminishing. And emerging market currencies such as the yuan are having to adjust to reflect real US demand. With or without PBOC intervention, that was bound to happen.
The concern for emerging markets is that this isn’t just a currency issue. The carry trades and subsequent inflows of capital have created substantial credit and real estate bubbles in many of these markets. The unwinding of these bubbles is likely to lead to banking crises in several countries, including China and China proxies such as Hong Kong, Australia and perhaps Singapore.
The hit to global economic activity will hurt inflated stock markets. As well as commodities, particularly the likes of iron ore and copper which have been widely used as collateral to finance trade/purchases in China. The winners out of all this are expected to include the US dollar, given less dollar liquidity means reduced supply vis-a-vis demand. And US Treasuries too due to the deflationary consequences of the economic re-balancing.
…
And you can take that to the bank. But I recommend T-Bills
“Buying A House Is The Worst Investment You Will Ever Make”
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/buying-a-house-is-the-worst/714396
Depreciation, taxes and updating these albatros’ is crushing! If you finance it you’re in a death spiral.
And now for today’s Freudian typo: I was writing a letter to a friend and accidently typed “Home Deport.” If only…
Lol, there’s headline on the google news aggravator that says “Trial Set for General Facing Sex Charges”, and I first read it as sex “changes” and was all puzzled why they would put someone on trial over sex changes, especially since the Armed Forces are all into duhversity and that sort of thing. I mean, let’s not let an allahuh akbar mowing down his fellow soldiers get in the way of a little dieversity.
I wonder how much money the Russia’s made shorting stocks and buying gold Monday morning. Did anyone check to see if gold futures were dumped before today’s “nevermind” announcement by Russia?
Was it really a “nevermind”? Putin hasn’t exactly withdrawn his troops and he was quick to point out that the US invades and intervenes all the time.
Yes, I didn’t exactly see it as a nevermind. A few diplomatic words, and he’ll do what he wants to do.
Exactly, he is tightening his grip on Crimea without significant consequences.
Much of this is for show, IMO. He knows it, Kerry/Obama know it. Chest beating, a few grimaces, a few howls, etc. Both sides have to give a little and let the other save some face, that’s the dance that’s going on here. Putin is the winner here, but he has to make it seem that Washington got something. Now Washington gets to loan, er, uh, GIVE a billion dollars to the Ukraine, no, wait, the bankers and politicians, lol.
Both sides have to give a little and let the other save some face, that’s the dance that’s going on here.
The status quo is that Russia controls the Crimea. Putin likes the status quo, it is time to create “peace in our time” to retain the gain.
“EU, led by Germany, is backing off the idea of sanctions.”
Russia: We Won’t Repay the Bankers if U.S. Imposes Sanctions
Russia may also dump the dollar if sanctions move forward
Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
March 4, 2014
A Kremlin economist, Sergei Glazyev, told RIA Novosti the Russian government may not repay loans owed to the financial cartel if the United States imposes sanctions on the country in response to the Crimea intervention.
EU, led by Germany, is backing off the idea of sanctions.
“If sanctions are applied against state structures, we will be forced to recognize the impossibility of repayment of the loans that the US banks gave to the Russian structures. Indeed, sanctions are a double-edged weapon, and if the US chooses to freeze our assets, then our equities and liabilities in dollars will also be frozen. This means that our banks and businesses will not return the loans to American partners,” he said.
Additionally, Glazyev said, Russia would likely dump the dollar to reduce its dependence on the U.S. financial system and switch to other currencies. “We have wonderful economic and trade relations with our Southern and Eastern partners,” he said. “We will find a way not just to eliminate our dependence on the U.S. but also profit from these sanctions.”
In addition to battering the banking system, Russia has the ability to inflict serious economic damage on Europe. As noted in a report issued by the Capital Economics research group, Russia is a major supplier of oil to Germany, the Netherlands, and “Western Europe generally.” The market share of the Russian gas giant Gazprom is expected to grow in the years ahead.
The Obama administration has vacillated on sanctions, although Obama is reportedly considering issuing an Executive Order without the consent of Congress. The administration has so far taken largely token steps, including suspending preparations for the annual G8 summit scheduled for Sochi in June. Obama has also nixed trade and energy talks with Russia and has withdrawn the American delegation for the Paralympics in Sochi.
State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters during a conference call on Monday the U.S. has a number of options available if the situation in Ukraine escalates. “At this point, we are not just considering sanctions. Given the actions Russia is taking, it is likely we will put those in place and we are preparing that,” Psaki said.
A document leaked in the UK suggests ministers there are second guessing sanctions due in large part to the risk of losing Russian investment in the country. The government briefing document photographed as an adviser carried it on Monday said Britain “should not support, for now, trade sanctions… or close London’s financial center to Russians.” It would, instead, support visa restrictions and travel bans.
Arizona Senator McCain insists on sanctions despite economic damage.
Sanctions imposed by the United States will need the support of Britain and Europe. “Unilateral U.S. sanctions against Russia are not going to have much an effect if Europe remains a haven for Russian banks and Russian oligarchs to stash and invest their money,” said Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat. “If the United States shuts its economic doors to Russia and Europe leaves its doors open, there won’t be much change in behavior from Moscow,” he said.
U.S. lawmakers have proposed an aggressive round of sanctions against Russian banks. Congress also wants to freeze the assets of Russian public institutions and private investors. In addition to sanctions on Russia, lawmakers are looking at generous loans for the coup regime in Kyiv that overthrew the elected government of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
This article was posted: Tuesday, March 4, 2014 at 9:31 am
1. Putin has control of Crimea.
2. Putin will begin to charge Ukraine world market prices for NG and oil.
3. The IMF, EU and the U.S. will pay the extra money to Putin’s Russia for Ukraine’s purchases of NG and oil.
4. If the Ukraine interferes with the pipelines, it faces an invasion and formal annexing of Crimea.
5. The EU will pressure Ukraine not to cause the flow of NG and oil to be cut-off to Europe.
Putin what a looser (not).
“…that the US invades and intervenes all the time.”
Here’s a good one I saw last evening.
http://picpaste.com/obama_centar-JVfPdLTY.jpg
Heh. Wrong end of the horse.
Y’know, how pathetic is it when a child of the cold war (me) gets a kick out of that pic?
Did you see the new Tom Clancy movie yet?
That won’t make Putin happy, but I can’t wait to see it. Shadow Recruit…………..is that like Shadow Inventory? It seems to be trouble on both counts……
At least Shadow Inventory is not normally lethal…
…unless it prompts you to jump out your Wall St. window. I recall you posted a link to that a few weeks ago….more bankers taking the ultimate hike….
Think Gen Y will prop up Canada’s housing market? Think again
Heard about all the struggling members of Generation Y who wonder how they’ll ever afford a house? Steve’s not one of them. He graduated with an engineering degree in 2012, landed a full-time job several months later and has been saving aggressively.
Now, he’s thinking about home ownership. He wonders, is it wise for a young person like himself to buy now, or is the market headed for a fall as baby boomers unload their family homes? “I’m curious who they think is going to buy their houses at the prices they expect to get,” Steve said.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/think-gen-y-will-prop-up-canadas-housing-market-think-again/article17225753/
Excellent article, hard rain. Good reading list at the end, except for the McMaster Univerity example which basically cheats.
From the article:
“Not for Steve, mind you. He’s been renting an affordable apartment and, thanks to his good salary and savings habits, he’s not far from having a down payment for a house in the Toronto area. If he dips into his registered retirement savings plan using the federal Home Buyer’s Plan, he’s probably good to go with a minimum 5-per-cent down payment.
A quick aside: This engineer is so meticulous in his financial thinking that he’s creating a spreadsheet to help him understand whether it makes good financial sense to use the Home Buyer’s Plan – “I know how horribly nerdy it sounds.””
Fool. If he has to save aggressively AND dip into his retirement (at 26?) to get just 5% down, he shouldn’t be buying. And send this guy the NYT Rent vs. Buy calculator. He’ll find that renting is much better for him. Plus, he’s single. Who knows what a female will do to him.
“And send this guy the NYT Rent vs. Buy calculator.”
heh…. right. The same “calculator” developed by NAR and MBA.
There’s been a full court press on the “It’s cheaper to buy than rent” meme recently. On DC news radio, I’ve heard it multiple times in the past several days.
Somehow, I don’t think they’re looking at the whole PITI-UMF* versus rent. They have to pick the scenario very carefully in order to make it work.
The realization that has really blunted my interest in buying is that even when the mortgage costs go away, the carrying costs of a house do not go away. And they are not insignificant.
====================
* PITI-UMF = Principle, Interest, Taxes, Insurance, Utilities, Maintenance, Fees (misc - HOA, garbage collection, etc).
Yeah no kidding and it’s been going on awhile. It’s contrived and deliberate and founded on nothing but BS.
With the exception of post-industrial Michigan and Ohio, rental rates are a small fraction of buying.
Somehow, I don’t think they’re looking at the whole PITI-UMF* versus rent.
The New York Times rent v Buy calculator had line items for Utilites, HOA fees, maintenance, and renovation. Renters pay utilities and fees too, especially the new shiny places. It’s more like PITI+M.
Have you looked at the rent vs. PITI+M equation for the rest of your life? Not just the year you look to buy, but for life?
The NYT “calculator” is a fraud.
The problem with spreadsheets is that they are not a substitute for common sense. They should always be packaged with a Reality Check.
If I have to borrow to the max for almost my whole working career to buy something, should I buy it?
If it costs half to rent something over a lifetime, should I buy it anyway, even if I don’t have the money?
If we are at/near the peak of the biggest housing speculative bubble in the history of mankind, should I buy a house?
If I work in a non-essential job for a government that has accumulated the biggest crushing debt burden in history, should I bet everything on this being “normal”?
If I can’t do basic math, should I use a canned spreadsheet to decide my financial future for my whole life?
“I’m curious who they think is going to buy their houses at the prices they expect to get,” Steve said.
It will sooner or later sink in, that a cadre of greater fools will start to diminish in the ensuing years. People will start wondering who will buy their house for A LOT more money than them seven years from now.
Smart people will start wondering why the older folks need to fetch such a high price for their homes. Presumably they all bought at least a decade before the run-up and can afford to sell for half the market price and still make a profit. Are they greedy? Did they HELOC in Canada? Would they need to save for medical expenses in Canada? Are they subsidizing kids?
Who cares? There are no buyers at that price.
“Smart people will start wondering why the older folks need to fetch such a high price for their homes.”
Needs of the seller has nothing to do with value of the house. Housing prices are set by a willing seller and a willing buyer. This works both ways. It does not matter if they seller paid more for the house than it is now worth or has it mortgaged past its real value. Alternatively, it does not matter that the seller paid a small fraction of the asking price. My final thought:as equity in houses gets lower and lower, the amount of inherited money past down from middle class families will be reduced. This is probably the last nail in the coffin for the middle class. The rich having their money primarily in the stock market will not have this same problem.
These so-called middle class have borrowed themselves into poverty. The whole middle class thing for the past generation has been a charade of debt.
The new middle class will come from families with the wisdom to stay out of debt, live modestly and below one’s means always and to have some savings against the unexpected.
That’s the way our great grandparents got into the middle class in the first place.
they’re not making any more toronto.
they’re not making any more vancouver.
better snap up a $800,000 starter home now or be priced out forever.
Tail end boomer here turning 55 in two months. Getting older means having less energy, aches, and whatever. Why would a boomer want to keep a McMansion, especially an empty nest? The boomers would have to hire people to clean. That’s no fun either.
The older you get the less trash you want.
Spend money instead on very healthy food, good wines, fabulous air trips, leases of luxury cars. Those are things you cannot take with you and worry about how your heirs will fence them.
I haven’t been to London. Or Dublin. Or anywhere in Germany. I’d like to tour the wine country of France and consider it would be a fun challenge to find a French person who agrees with Ludwig Von Mises and is not a class warfare type.
Vacations - you cannot take with you.
So boomers should spend money on experiences and downsize their crapshacks.
useless realtors
Will Lola be absent today if DC is shut down?
And Liberace?
Will Lola be absent today if DC is shut down?
I don’t see why a snowstorm would keep anyone from posting from home. If anything, they would have time to spare.
They can do other things when they are at home then be on the Internet.
then=than Also, they might not have Internet at home although that is unlikely. They do have it on smart phones but it is a pain to post by phone.
From a Drudge link: It is a cold day to bike to work:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The seemingly endless winter dumped a half a foot snow on the ground in parts of the South, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and many areas Tuesday morning saw something even more unusual in March: a blast of arctic air that sent temperatures plummeting into the single digits.
Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport broke a 141-year-old record low temperature, reaching 4 degrees. The National Weather Service said the low reached early Tuesday broke a 5-degree record set on the day in 1873. It was also a record low for the month of March. Dulles International Airport - also outside Washington - tied a 1993 record for the month at -1 degree.
Read more: http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/24877346/another-blast-of-arctic-air-follows-latest-snow#ixzz2v0RBhDP0
Follow us: @fox5newsdc on Twitter | myfoxdc on Facebook
Oh, sheesh, there’s some headline about a “MASSIVE Arctic Blast” and then you read the story about how four inches of snow fell somewhere. Four inches. Yep, that’s MASSIVE!
Gawd, I hate what passes for journalism these days.
“MASSIVE Arctic Blast”
Danged global warming!
They can do other things when they are at home then be on the Internet.
Like eat and watch TV?
Half way thru the PM scroll down and no Lola yet.
The last word is she’s holed up in a DC shelter due to the cold weather. Library is closed.
Are you prepared for Dow 6,000?
Putin’s whim, bitcoin’s bounce and the absurd case for Dow 6,000
March 4, 2014, 6:53 AM
By Shawn Langlois
Reuters
…
The swing we may be in store for this week is a nothing compared with what Harry Dent Jr. sees coming, though. His crystal ball is calling for a pop to 17,000 on the Dow in the next few weeks, before a meltdown takes it to 6,000 by 2016.
“I think this will be the most dangerous period in people’s lives in investing,” he told CNBC in an interview strategically coinciding with yesterday’s retreat.
Maybe they’ll bring back his Dow 40,000 call from 2004 for today’s rally.
…
Really? Oh, be still, my beating heart.
Meh. Harry Dent. My heart just started up again.
Forget Harry, what does Harvey Dent say? That’s what I want to know
http://www.blacklinefever.com/artists/timm/Timm2Face.jpg.
Harry Dent has predicted the 2009 and 2010 Great Depression. Moving scroll…2012…oh waiit…2015…
His thesis on boomer demographics probably is not working because boomers are unpredictable. Many of them cannot afford to retire so they are still working.
“Harry Dent has predicted the 2009 and 2010 Great Depression. Moving scroll…2012…oh waiit…2015…”
Most of these predictions were likely based on a free market economy and meritocratic principals, neither of which exist.
Just saw a headline on another website, “Is a bull market in the making?” Why even bother reading the story? Why not call the federal reserve and ask ‘em what their dart board says?
Actually yes. I can convert from cash to equities in about a day. But I’m waiting for real fundamentals. Trying to time this “500 steps forward, 450 steps back” market is foolish for anyone with a day job.
Not only prepared, but hoping!!!
los angeles times - ‘12 years a slave’ puts spotlight on hollywood’s approach to race:
‘was it ultimately a race about race?
the best picture oscar is meant to honor the year’s greatest achievement in film, and ‘12 years a slave’ had no shortage of supporters before winning thetop honor sunday.
whether or not oscar voters were motivated by a fear of looking racially insensitive, or to correct a perceived historical wrong, can never be known.
all the same, two oscar voters privately admitted that they didn’t see ‘12 years a slave,’ thinking it would be upsetting. but they said they voted for it anyway because, given the film’s social relevance, they felt obligated to do so.’
Yeah, but Ellen ordered Pizza and gave the delivery guy a $1000 tip!
Take that, Peyton!
Rockville, MD Excess Inventory Skyrockets 34%; Prices Sink 6% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/rockville-md/market-trends/
Median price per square foot up 5% ($270 per square foot, instead of $256 per square foot a year ago).
Attributed to what? A larger garage? A pool? Fencing? Basement? Finished basement? Newer structures v. older structures?
Yeah, I’d certainly believe that a new house is worth more than an old house don’t you?
HA you must have teleport.
No I just happen to know my a$$ from my elbow and have no stake in the direction of prices.
HA- My 1918 house and guest quarters were craftfully built in 1918 out of old-growth redwood. The 2×4s actually measure 2×4.
Pound sand and eat Chinese drywall, my friend.
Your dried out, splintered and unplaned rickety primary framing barely supports what is a fire trap looking for a time go up in smoke.
You wouldn’t own it if you knew better.
North Potomac, MD Housing Prices Dive 6% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/north-potomac-md/market-trends/
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/01/02/article-1104075-02EB99B1000005DC-923_468×351.jpg
yahoo news linked from drudge:
‘an advocacy group affiliated with facebook ceo mark zuckerberg launched a nationwide ad on monday that implores house republicans to act this election year on legislation overhauling the nation’s immigration system.
‘the future of this country, our country, is tied to immigration reform,’ says the spot, which warns of stagnant job growth and loss of tax revenue if congress fails to act.’
Actually, I look at it as a positive sign that they want to push amnesty prior to the election. It suggests that they assume the next Congress will be more hostile to amnesty.
the 2014 super bowl coke commercial, titled ‘it’s beautiful’
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D4BC8zUfNhU
And speaking of Drudge links, is it any coincidence that there have been no reported incidents of the “knockout game” since this commercial aired?
Victim of bitter cold?
“Climate change” has a benefit afterall.
I did read a story about some gang members trying to off a “polar bear” as a gang initiation. He was saved by his bible stopping two bullets, he then stabbed one with a pen and the punk dropped his gun and ran away with I think two other “brave” gangbangers.
http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/news/fbi-to-probe-bus-driver-shooting-as-a-possible-hat/ndcCt/
or this link:
http://whitegirlbleedalot.com/new-polar-bear-attack-dayton/
It suggests that they assume the next Congress will be more hostile to amnesty.
How could that be? Both parties are amnesty friendly.
And every day, thousands of anchor babies turn 18 and are eligible to vote.
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
Not the Tea Party wing of the Republican party. Other than that you are right but for now they stand in the way. I think that a Republican Congress with a lot of Tea Party members with a Democratic President is the best way to stop amnesty. A Republican President could force vote without majority Republican support for the amnesty. McCain would have delivered amnesty.
New York Times - Cities Mobilize to Help Those Threatened by Gentrification
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/us/cities-helping-residents-resist-the-new-gentry.html
A link for Dannyboy, from the “real journalists” at the New York Times
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/global-warming-basics-from-the-u-s-and-british-science-academies/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/04/no-global-warming-for-17-years-6-months/
I counter with this graph. No warming based on satellite data again in February. I expect NASA’s ground base data to disagree since it is easier to fabricate especially with emerging market nations wanting their AGW money and willing to provide false data. The CAGW crowd is pushing the graphs further and further back and yes during an Interglacial period we warm, that is part of the natural cycle but we are still 2 degrees Celsius below the normal peak of an Interglacial. Also, notice on your graph the warming between 1900-1950 which is almost the same as the jump between the 1970’s and late 1990’s despite the amount of co2 being put into the air being a small fraction of the co2 added by China alone since 1979. Funny how even in your graph when man is putting the most co2 in the air by far probably, ten times what we were putting in the atmosphere in 1900, temperatures are flatting out. No, if you really think about your graph it supports natural and not man made warming and makes co2 a minor cause of any warming.
Yeah, right. Ignore the data from January and the fact that it’s been springtime in California since November.
Here’s an article on how the “normal” temps are affecting this year’s Iditarod.
“It’s a minefield out there,” said former Yukon Quest champion Hugh Neff. “It’s the roughest I’ve ever seen,” said Jeff King, a 22-time race finisher. Aliy Zirkle reported “No snow. Zip. Zero. None.” Many suffered crashes, busted knees, bruises, and sprained ankles. Several are out of the race already….”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/04/3357501/warm-winter-iditarod-minefield-snow/
From Wikipedia: Notice that humans release in about a year as much carbon as they did between 1751-1900 but the graph begins its strong ascent in 1900, thus it really shows natural and not man made warming since with co2 emissions off the chart we have a flat curve but with minor emissions we had rapid warming:
While CO2 absorption and release is always happening as a result of natural processes, the recent rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is known to be mainly due to human activity.[26] Researchers know this both by calculating the amount released based on various national statistics, and by examining the ratio of various carbon isotopes in the atmosphere,[26] as the burning of long-buried fossil fuels releases CO2 containing carbon of different isotopic ratios to those of living plants, enabling them to distinguish between natural and human-caused contributions to CO2 concentration.
Burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum is the leading cause of increased anthropogenic CO2; deforestation is the second major cause. In 2010, 9.14 gigatonnes of carbon (33.5 gigatonnes of CO2) were released from fossil fuels and cement production worldwide, compared to 6.15 gigatonnes in 1990.[27] In addition, land use change contributed 0.87 gigatonnes in 2010, compared to 1.45 gigatonnes in 1990.[27] In 1997, human-caused Indonesian peat fires were estimated to have released between 13% and 40% of the average carbon emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels around the world in a single year.[28][29][30] In the period 1751 to 1900, about 12 gigatonnes of carbon were released as carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from burning of fossil fuels, whereas from 1901 to 2008 the figure was about 334 gigatonnes.[31]
Certainly the fifty year temperature chart looks nothing like the fifty year chart showing the increase of co2 in the atmosphere which is what it would look like if co2 was responsible for the vast majority of the warming instead of being a minor player i.e. my 1/7 of the warming number.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
AlbuqDan.
Thanks. I’ll read after I’m done working.
I think it’s amazing how the scientific community teamed up with the political community in an effort to fleece us even more. Now they want beat down any opposing views.
BH
I think it’s amazing how the scientific community teamed up with the political community in an effort to fleece us even more. Now they want beat down any opposing views.
It is a sad day for most of the scientific community. On this issue they are following the oldest profession.
I bet the warming reported over the past 50 years correlates best with global credit expansion.
The trouble with using CO2 to warm up this cold little globe is that half the time it is night and that silly “greenhouse” thing reverses. Credit, now that works 24/7!
I bet the warming reported over the past 50 years correlates best with global credit expansion.
It actually closely correlate. Of course, correlate does not prove causation and in this case it is just a coincidence. Like the NFL indicator.
They actually closely correlate.
There is that, but my basic assumption is that the borrowing of money is the root of all evil. This pretty much settles the correlation/causation question. If you look back in history, credit expansions go with global warming. Check out how hot it got during the Roman Credit Expansion!
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png
If you don’t believe me I’ll think you are not a lover of puppies and such.
sarcasm off
“the burning of long-buried fossil fuels releases CO2 containing carbon of different isotopic ratios to those of living plants, enabling them to distinguish between natural and human-caused contributions to CO2 concentration…”
OK, so seriously, if the carbon isotopes in the air are now largely from these old fossil fuels, isn’t carbon (got from the air) in plants growing for the last 50 years full of these fossil isotopes?
My favorite word in the dictionary is the word “adjustable”.
And mine is “fixed,” beyotch.
Have fun shoveling the snow from your equity. Have fun mowing your equity. Have fun raking your equity. Have fun replacing the furnace of your equity. Have fun replacing the roof on your equity. Have fun renting your equity from the municipal tax collectors, even after you’re done renting money from the bank to finance the “purchase” of your equity.
Because renting is just “throwing money away”, right?
Be fearful when others are greedy. I sold 350 more shares with just above $29 per share realized gain. Stock zoomed above $35 today. Thanks Mr. Putin!
Cash it all out in singles and take a money bath.
My advice to Brett of Austin a few weeks back holds. Keep the windfall in cash. Then invest equal amounts monthly into stock index funds over the course of a safe number of years. 10 years or even 20 years. If you started out with $100,000 in cash on the beginning of the ‘29 GD and invested that entire amount over 23 years in equal monthly amounts (240 pieces) in the Dow, you would have done very well.
In a similar deal I have a smaller windfall, although now $600,000 in government securities and cash (cash is part of the total) - savings bonds, municipal bonds mostly. So I’m moving out of individual stocks and into my Roth 401k at work purely into stock funds.
‘If you started out with $100,000 in cash on the beginning of the ‘29 GD…’
The only thing that matters is what you would do today.
‘The idea of a bubble detector comes from a recent study coauthored by Camerer in which Caltech students watched replays of trading sessions rigged in a lab. Half of the sessions resulted in bubble markets, in which prices significantly exceeded the value of the asset. The Caltech students, given a stake of $60 at the outset, were periodically asked whether they would buy, sell or hold shares of the asset at the going price. Despite the fact that the fundamental value of the lab-created security was easy to calculate, based on dividend payments that decreased at regular intervals over the sessions, some of the students got swept up in the bubble anyway. “These kids are extremely analytical,” says Camerer. “The median math SAT score here is 800 [out of 800]. It’s hard to believe they can’t count and keep track of a dividend value.”
‘Scans of the students’ brains found that susceptibility to bubble markets is associated with two types of activity. One is in the area where we make social calculations—figuring out what other people are going to do, what they want, what they think of us. “That supports the greater fool theory” of bubbles, says Camerer. “It’s not that these investors don’t realize that in 15 minutes the asset will be worthless. Instead, they think, Maybe I can sell [to a ‘greater fool’] and get out.”
http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T038-C023-S002-wanted-bubble-detector.html#8QPsDOtTodOw6Ol2.99
I heard it put thusly: “The difference between investment and speculation is the speed at which you expect to realize your gains.”
The core of any bubble is the “magic asset”: an asset which conventional wisdom says will only continue to increase in value, in perpetuity. Add to that then two components: 1) large numbers of speculators and 2) people purchasing the item primarily for gains from re-selling it.
I heard the morning anchor on DC news radio question whether Putin was sane. There was another story (which I currently can’t find anything on) about the IMF sending a team to help claw back money from corrupt politicians. I had an involuntary guffaw.
This sounds like a lot of what we heard during the run-up to Iraq (I don’t think we’re going to get involved in Ukraine - it is Russia after all). Prior to the 2000s which had Iraq and the financial crisis and the housing bubble, I thought the media was generally good. I disagreed with them on some issues and knew they had a liberal bent. But they were generally informative.
But then, during the 2000s, hearing about what the rest of the world was getting from their medias, and hearing what we were getting from ours totally changed my view. And then seeing the reality versus what had been reported. And learning who knew what, and when.
Watching all the hype with the Oscars, seeing politicians use the media and vice versa has led me to believe there’s a politico-media complex. The conservative media has its bullhorn, the liberal media has its bullhorn.
Controlling the media is pure money and power. It’s huge.
The wild card is the internet. I again heard about the need for “gatekeepers” the other day because of “excessive misinformation” on the Web. I fully expect the politico-media complex to do their utmost to bring the internet into the fold.
Is there a relation between Janet Yeltsin and Putin?
Net neutrality has one foot in the grave.
It won’t be long until fringe websites like Infowars have their bandwidth throttled.
Content created by “real journalists” will be given priority.
Opposing net neutrality is brilliant for those who wish to control the internet. Any website that starts to get big has to be approved by Comcast-NBC-Time Warner.
Wow. One chokepoint. Nice.
Netflix cuts deal with Comcast to speed service
Roger Yu, USA TODAY 3:45 p.m. EST February 26, 2014
Netflix has agreed to pay Comcast to ensure that its movies and TV shows stream more quickly, the latest evidence of a shift in the balance of power in favor of Internet service providers and the likelihood of rising prices for consumers.
Emboldened by a mid-January federal appeals court ruling that eliminated “net neutrality” rules, which had prohibited Internet providers from prioritizing content, Comcast and others cable companies are showing signs they will take a more aggressive stance in how content streams through their “pipes.”
Calling it “a mutually beneficial” agreement, Netflix, whose content accounts for nearly a third of evening Internet traffic, and Comcast, the nation’s largest Internet provider and cable operator, said Sunday the deal will provide Comcast customers “a high-quality Netflix video experience for years to come.” Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Proponents of net neutrality have warned that broadband providers — mostly cable and satellite companies — will seek payment from content providers for quicker streaming without bottlenecks but still favor movies and TV shows made by their own subsidiaries or partner companies.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/23/netflix-comcast-deal-streaming/5757631/
Bill, you may remember me, I am your shadow investor. I take notes and I compare notes. Alas I am not a tiny Asian lady but I do still have all my original cash from selling family beach house. Alas, it’s not enough to buy a house in this cali market. I was looking at McCormic Ranch. is living there a death sentence? Im in san diego and the most I could do is rent a junky rental. but Scottsdale has custom homes! Im afraid my gorgeous hair would turn to straw living in AZ. Waiting for the next housing crash! Hi PB!
McCormick ranch is certainly no death sentence. My druthers, I would go a mile or more north just for good measure. Or rent a house in McCormick ranch.
Thanx bill, that’s exactly the info I would need. I was in Scottsdale in the 70’s we stayed at saddleback lodge, that’s all I remember. Yesterday I was daydreaming about being a snowbird. custom house in Scottsdale and luxury condo in Solana beach. Now if those munis could earn me 7000 a month, I could still shop, travel and live in a designer kitchen home!
Roughly $2.2 million in AAZAX will yield you $7,000 per month. Ideally you would balance that with $1.1 million in a low cost stock index fund such as Vanguard Admiral 500 and earn another $1,800 per month in dividends and $1.1 million in precious metals.
Also my opinion is that Phoenix metro prices are too inflated by the specuvestors. My spidey sense tells me house prices there will fall in a couple years.
However if your house purchase is no more than one sixth your net worth then buy your dream house for that amount.
I saw some homes on a man made lake, plus green belts. Does anybody put carpet down anymore? Tiles for miles.
Watch out for scorpion infestation in communities near green belts, canals and man made lakes. Trust me…you don’t want that. Sellers have to disclose.
Never had any scorpions when I lived in Scottsdale. I was in central Scottsdale. No desert at all. The scorpions are in the dry areas of Phoenix mostly. Like my current residence in southeast Phoenix. Even at that I found two bark scorpions in my apartment the last 8 years. Both of those scorpions pooped out - dead. They must have exerted themselves looking for food - other insects - and found none.
They should of added that the prospective employee should have a customer following to bring to the shop too:
http://maine.craigslist.org/fbh/4347467735.html
I’ll bet that 50 people will apply for that crappy, 15 hour a week job, because, you know, no one wants to work.
From the listing: “This is a work at home position and pays every Thursday.. opportunity to make 1k+ per week if you know what your doing.”
Try: your => you’re
WTF?
http://maine.craigslist.org/ofc/4358765914.html
I can’t hire anyone in the coal fields until 99er, stamps and free phones go away
Please sir, could I have some more gruel?
No, and the beatings will continue until morale improves!!
Per Se (one of the most acclaimed restaurants in the world, i.e. the highest possible rating by Michelin) got very bad grades from the NYC health dept.:
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Per-Se-Grade-Pending-Health-Department-Restaurant-Inspections-248372271.html
——————————- (excerpt)
“Per Se, which is one of just seven New York City restaurants to have three Michelin stars, offers a nine-course tasting menu for $310 per person. On Monday, the offerings included “Tsar Imperial Ossetra caviar,” a terrine of duck foie gras and lobster “a la Bordelaise.”
Inspectors give an “A” for 0 to 13 points, “B” for 14 to 27 points and “C” for 28 or more.
The report says Per Se has a “grade pending.”
Liberace!
DiBlasio’s New York man. Just as bad as Obama’s America.
Cheetos and Coke. The breakfast of champions.
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20140304_095651_946-YHwS8YrL.jpg
What’s that crap behind the post it note Potsy?
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20140304_101050_818-8H5mZmu6.jpg
Then cook me up some lunch Potsy
http://antville.org/static/videos/images/cooking%20with%20potsy.jpg
What are you a champion of? IFNB? So you won their Beefboy competition?
Do you keep a bowl filled with Cheetos on your harpsichord Liberace?
nah man I’m a very clean eater. Lots of kale shakes.
I just finished redoing my personal BR in my mancave lair. Thoughts?
(I have to get someone to do glass doors, for now I’m using curtains.)
http://www.picpaste.com/89f8f6ad2df627e5321bc7e2e7d8931c.jpg
http://www.picpaste.com/4c26cdb27248a4e5293bee93d56e5c5f.jpg
http://www.picpaste.com/e126f15b800c8e51901398cec00b4979.jpg
Don’t be too harsh, this was on a shoestring budget. Nearly everything I bought was deeply discounted. I did go with high pressure showerheads though.
Lots of kale shakes
I would go with Cheetos over that. I have a diet with a lot of salmon, cashews, spinach, red potatoes, broccoli, blueberries, olives (and olive oil) and salsa. Except for the broccoli, I enjoy what I eat. Even the spices I use such as curry and garlic add flavor. But when men start eating kale and tofu, I say they must have been castrated.
My kale shake is kale, small amt of greek yogurt, 1/2 banana, orange, apple, blueberries when avail., 1/2 a carrot, lots of ice. Sometimes I’ll add a small amt of honey or vanilla soy milk to sweeten.
Once in a while if I have some spinach that needs to be used up, I’ll substitute that for some of the kale.
Sorry, I like strawberry Kefir but that is as close as I will come to a kale shake. I also left out lots of dark chocolate with almonds from Trader Joes and I always try to drink red wine when I eat red meat.
Tofu and any other Soy products are a NO NO for any man. I hate shakes or smoothies but Kale and other leafy greens on your daily diet is good.
You realize that soy is as American as apple pie, farm subsidies, slavery, and SuperPACs, right? Anything that’s good enough for a bald eagle is good enough for me.
Dolly, tell him about soy and female hormones.
This is the most extreme article I could find and goes beyond the impact I actually think soy has, but it is too funny to not post to down low Joe so here it is, an article that claims that soy is causing children to be gay:
http://www.wnd.com/2006/12/39253/
As I said in the actual link, I do not believe this but how could I not post it for down low Joe? Link will post soon but here is an excerpt:
Soy is feminizing, and commonly leads to a decrease in the size of the penis, sexual confusion and homosexuality. That’s why most of the medical (not socio-spiritual) blame for today’s rise in homosexuality must fall upon the rise in soy formula and other soy products. (Most babies are bottle-fed during some part of their infancy, and one-fourth of them are getting soy milk!) Homosexuals often argue that their homosexuality is inborn because “I can’t remember a time when I wasn’t homosexual.” No, homosexuality is always deviant. But now many of them can truthfully say that they can’t remember a time when excess estrogen wasn’t influencing them.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2006/12/39253/#GX2skUwUYKzG38WE.99
IFNB Beefboy? He can’t even get into the VIP room at Paddles.
He’s been reduced to the second-tier circuit in his corpulent old age:
https://www.clawinfo.org/
With your kitchen skills, I bet you can whip up a killer batch of Cheetos casserole. I’ll post the recipe. The only accoutrements are a box of KrispyKreme donuts and an ice cold 2 liter bottle of Coke.
I’ll buy and fly for all the ingredients. Whatta ya say Potsy?
Falls Church VA(DC metro)Housing Prices Crumble 11%YoY; Excess Inventory Up 36%
http://www.movoto.com/falls-church-va/market-trends/
Median price per square foot up 5%.
Attributed to what? A larger garage? A pool? Fencing? Basement? Finished basement? Newer structures v. older structures?
Yeah, I’d certainly believe that a new house is worth more than an old house don’t you?
http://www.cdreed.com/Home_Page.html
Cut directly from their homepage…..
Falls Church is pretty unlikely to crash. I doubt many people there have a mortgage, except in the newer condo type stuff. It’s all like mid-career people. Not as nice as Great Falls or Potomac, but it’s in the next tier with like McLean.
I know I know Lib….. except for prices are down 11%.
Based on what volume of sales? My uneducated guess would be that new home construction in Falls Church is essentially zero and the number of homes on the market is tiny.
Considering prices are 250% higher than trend, of course demand is collapsing.
Please continue, governor…
Well Liberace?
Talk about creative copy…
http://portland.craigslist.org/wsc/cto/4350553034.html
BWHAHAHAHAHA! Mr. Cheatham pimps used houses!
http://www.therealtyalliance.com/rosterdetail.asp?user=ccheatham
Kids say the darndest things.
Teen’s Facebook Post Costs Father $80K Legal Settlement
A Florida teenager’s Facebook post has cost her father an $80,000 legal settlement.
The Palm Beach Post reported Sunday the father had sued a Miami-area preparatory school for age discrimination after he lost his job as headmaster.
Dana Snay’s father, Patrick Snay, had settled an age discrimination case with his former employer, Gulliver Preparatory School.
The school agreed to settle the case for $80,000 and the settlement agreement included a stipulation that the man and his wife not disclose details of the settlement with anyone.
The daughter posted on Facebook that the money would pay for family vacation to Europe.
“Mama and Papa Snay won the case against Gulliver. Gulliver is now officially paying for my vacation to Europe this summer. SUCK IT,” she posted.
The post invalidated the settlement.
— The Associated Press / NBC Miami
What exactly did she want them to suck? Social Media payback can be a beyotch.
“Loose fingertips sink settlements”
after he lost his job as headmaster.
Given the number of sex abuse cases involving private schools, they really need to change the title “headmaster”, just saying.
Given the number of sex abuse cases involving private schools, they really need to change the title “headmaster”, just saying.
Any catholic priest reading your suggestion would be saying he will be happy to grab that title.
I saw this article earlier this week. There was a great picture of CupCake, such a sweet little girl.
All Wars Are Bankers’ Wars - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hfEBupAeo4 - 139k -
Feb 4, 2013 …
All Wars Are Bankers’ Wars
By Michael Rivero
I know many people have a great deal of difficulty comprehending just how many wars are started for no other purpose than to force private central banks onto nations, so let me share a few examples, so that you understand why the US Government is mired in so many wars against so many foreign nations. There is ample precedent for this.
Transcript here
The path to true peace on Earth lies in the abolishment of all private central banking everywhere, and a return to the state-issued value-based currencies that allow nations and people to become prosperous.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article33903.htm - 35k -
This guys writing a story mixing fact with fantasy.
“So Richard Nixon started the environmental movement, with the EPA and its various programs such as “wilderness zones”, Roadless areas”, Heritage rivers”, “Wetlands”, all of which took vast areas of public lands and made them off limits to the American people who were technically the owners of those lands. But Nixon had little concern for the environment and the real purpose of this land grab under the guise of the environment was to pledge those pristine lands and their vast mineral resources as collateral on the national debt. The plethora of different programs was simply to conceal the true scale of how much American land was being pledged to foreign lenders as collateral on the government’s debts; eventually almost 25% of the nation itself.”
United States Environmental Protection Agency
From Wikipedia
The EPA was proposed by President Richard Nixon and began operation on December 2, 1970, after Nixon signed an executive order. The order establishing the EPA was ratified by committee hearings in the House and Senate
We need less Banker’s wars and more bankers’ death matches. I would pay for pay for view for a good to the death cage match.
Fairfax VA Housing Prices Crater 18% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/fairfax-va/market-trends/
ContraCosta County, CA Housing Demand Craters 14% YoY; Falls Through 2008 Floor
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Contra-Costa-County-home-value/r_3159/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D6%26r%3D3159%26el%3D0
“Pimco sees Canadian housing market falling as much as 20%”
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/03/03/pimco-sees-canadian-housing-market-falling-as-much-as-20/
As stated yesterday on WBBR.
In other words, the market makers are covered and it’s already in a state of decline and accelerating.
There is a reason that the national currency is called the Looney.
The one dollar coin is called the Looney.
Negative equity and Great Britain:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26389009
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24660825
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-cities-where-ordinary-people-can-no-longer-afford-homes-203700652.html
It now seems pretty clear that late 2012 or early 2013 was the ideal time to purchase a home: Real-estate prices and interest rates were both near record lows, creating an unprecedented buying opportunity for those who could muster a down payment and qualify for a mortgage.
Home affordability is still pretty good by historical standards, but typical buyers are once again being priced out in at least two dozen markets ranging from coastal hotspots to lower-cost inland cities. Three factors are pushing the cost of owning a home beyond the financial reach of ordinary families: Mortgage rates are ticking upwward as the Federal Reserve backs away from the super-easy monetary policy of the past five years. Home prices are rising as the economy recovers. And incomes are barely budging, which means typical families are once again falling behind as they try to bank enough to buy a home.
We used data from research firm RealtyTrac to determine where housing affordability is deteriorating the most. At the top of the list is Salinas, Calif., where a median-priced home rose 40% from the end of 2012 to the end of 2013, to $388,000. When rising interest rates are factored in, the income required to purchase a typical home rose by a whopping 58%.
http://www.sadtrombone.com/classic
http://gma.yahoo.com/10m-gold-coin-hoard-found-yard-may-stolen-141317823–abc-news-personal-finance.html?vp=1
The link between propping up bubbles with government intervention and the permanent recession we are in:
http://mises.org/daily/6676/Says-Law-and-the-Permanent-Recession
ludwig von mises? really?
when’s the last time a real journalist talked about that?
thanks for playing, dannyboy
Welcome back stoner, just don’t pass out like that with Lola around. Excerpt:
Given the work of Hutt and Higgs in explaining why a recession persists with no recovery, here is a list of factors causing price inflexibility and regime uncertain in today’s economy:
1) Capital market price floors, like the Greenspan-Bernanke put and QE which prevent the markets for capital goods from clearing.
2) Bailouts of Wall Street, which are another form of price floors, and keep the incompetent management teams in place.
3) The nationalization of the mortgage market, another form of capital market price floors and house price floors, which removes the largest sector of credit markets from the domain of economic calculation.
4) Obamacare. Besides the direct costs for taxpayers, the bill introduces massive incentive changes in labor markets, the implications of which are still not clear.
5) Economist Casey Mulligan documents extensive changes in labor market incentives in his book The Redistribution Recession. He argues that these changes have created a huge implicit tax on income for the unemployed contemplating an offer of paid work.
6) The pending default of most pension plans including Social Security, the medical welfare state, US states, counties, and cities. How the default will be paid for is creating great uncertainty.
7) Uncertainty created by the threat of wealth taxation and bail-ins, as outlined in an IMF paper.
As Hayek said, the more the state centrally plans, the more difficult it becomes for the individual to plan. Economic growth is not something that just happens. It requires saving. It requires investment and capital accumulation. And it requires the real market process. It is not a delicate flower but it requires some degree of legal stability and property rights. And when you get in the way of these things, the capital accumulation stops and the economy stagnates.
Step away from the keyboard, son.
Let a “real economist” like Paul Krugman explain these things.
Speaking of Krugman: http://bastiat.mises.org/2014/03/krugman-and-the-babysitters/
If Bill Clinton was president, he would not listen to Krugman but he would try to tap the babysitters.
You are missing the point. The “real journalists” construct the narrative. And they cite “real scientists” and “real historians” and “real experts” on all manner of topics.
If I really gave a sh*t about global warming, do you think I would own 2 cars and drive 500+ miles a week?
The best living media critic in the USA is Rush Limbaugh. I disagree with him on many things, but he unrelentingly reveals the fraud and the lie that is “real journalism.”
Read the New York Times. Read the Washington Post. Read the real journalists. I can’t advocate you watch teevee because I don’t watch teevee and don’t even know what’s on teevee.
‘The “real journalists” construct the narrative.’
‘Ronan Farrow, who began hosting his daytime MSNBC show Monday, received the Cronkite Award for Excellence in Exploration and Journalism Wednesday night.’
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/27/msnbcs-ronan-farrow-receives-walter-cronkite-award/
Ben, once again, thank you for this forum to discuss our thoughts.
“real journalism”may be iintended as satire, but unfortunately in our modern age is too real.
try hiring someone on the low end of the scale
The Clash - Police And Thieves
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6FZwVvS8_8
The Clash - Guns On The Roof
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50XjoExO9YM
The Clash - Clampdown
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psB0cidB5bg
The Clash - I’m So Bored With The U.S.A.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFTEQC7Aq2k
‘Former Fitch banks analyst Charlene Chu believes that the Chinese banking system is on the verge of collapse. The former analyst resigned from her job at Fitch in the last month after developing a reputation as both a “financial heroine” and a pariah within the Chinese banking sector.’
‘Chu believes that the Chinese banking system is trapped in the middle of a serious debt-fuelled bubble, and that a collapse is imminent. he former analyst believes that China’s bubble is now the largest in history, with no comparable example in Western economies. She also believes that a large shadow banking industry operates in China, making as many loans to consumers and businesses as the country’s legal banking system.’
‘Chu explained her serious concerns for China: “The banking sector has extended $14 trillion to $15 trillion in the span of five years. There’s no way that we are not going to have massive problems in China.”
http://www.calculator.co.uk/2014/02/chinese-banks-on-verge-of-crisis-warns-former-fitch-analyst/
Which corresponds coincidentally to the accumulated increase in China’s GDP over those five years. Quite a “miracle”!
Take away the credit expansion and there is a $3Tr economy, not a $9Tr one.