March 24, 2014

Some Drank Too Much Kool-Aid On Prices

The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “In Palm Beach County, the median price of $272,000 was 16 percent higher than a year earlier, according to the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. There were 1,020 homes trading hands, up about 1 percent from last February. Meanwhile, more owners are starting to list their homes for sale. Broward had 5,565 active listings at the end of February, up 25 percent from a year ago. Palm Beach County had 7,522 homes for sale, up 12 percent. Many investors now are pulling out as the bargains diminish.”

“‘Call it the return to the old normal,’ Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Hanley Wood in Washington, D.C., said in a statement. Smoke added that ‘no one should fear this is a harbinger of housing deteriorating — it’s actually a reflection of the existing home market getting better.’”

The Miami Herald. “The slowing pace of existing sales is widely expected to continue this year, despite substantial increases in the selection of homes and condos listed on the market. In February in Miami-Dade, listings for existing condos ballooned to 10,723 units. That was a 32.2 percent increase from a year earlier and the highest level in more than two and a half years. Miami-Dade single-family home listings increased 18.3 percent to 6,113 from a year earlier.”

“Michael Davalos, office manager of Engel & Völkers in Miami Beach, said some properties have been priced ambitiously high and as a result are sitting on the market without takers. ‘Some agents taking on listings drank too much of the Kool-Aid on prices,’ said Davalos, whose office sees a lot of business in the South Beach and the Brickell/downtown areas. ‘Prices haven’t come down, but it’s taking longer to find buyers. We overstepped ourselves and prices got over what the market would pay.’”

The Palm Beach Post. “In August 2012, The Palm Beach Post wrote about the home at 8072 Burlington Court, learning it had gone into foreclosure in September 2010. More than three years later, it’s still sitting there decaying. The lender, JPMorgan Chase hasn’t gotten a final judgment yet against the home, so it remains in the name of homeowner Vernon Campbell. Campbell appears to be long gone.”

“The house has a hole in its roof, shingles falling off, and neighbors fear another looming hurricane season will finish it off, as well as taking out neighboring houses. ‘This whole situation has gone on beyond a reasonable time for remedy and is now well beyond the point of an eye sore,’ said neighbor Mike Herndon. ‘It has reached the point that this property has become a hazard to the public and surrounding homes.’”

The Ocala Star Banner. “For almost two years Jo Ann and Larry Vach have lived next to a home that is in foreclosure. An apparent squatter has allowed refuse to accumulate, causing a stench and a rat infestation in the otherwise tidy neighborhood. The eyesore house and yard, which has junk furniture and trash piled in front, has been in the foreclosure process since May 2010.”

“A man standing on the property declined to identify himself when recently approached by a reporter. He said he had a lease on the house. ‘Technically, I guess I’m a squatter. I collect rainwater but I do have electric power,’ he said. When asked about the refuse last week, the unidentified man said, ‘I’ve seen worse.’”

The Bradenton Herald. “Kerry Ward, the Manatee-Sarasota market leader for Bank of the Ozarks, said he was shocked at the number of homes that are still in pre-foreclosed status, meaning the properties remain in the name of the homeowner, not the bank. That’s if the bank is in a rush to do so, which may not be the case. The opportunity is there to deliberately slow the foreclosure process in order to delay paying overdue property taxes, as well as bringing the properties up to code. ‘Foreclosures got so backlogged that the banks are keeping them in the property owners’ names as long as possible,’ said Amara Nash, president of the board of directors for the Artists Guild of Manatee, the guiding nonprofit organization within the Village of the Arts.”

From Florida Today. “The number of bank-owned properties is still significant in Brevard, and elsewhere, but that situation so far is having a negligible effect on the local market. A housing roundtable discussion held at FLORIDA TODAY noted the properties are not being allowed to flood the market and drag down the sector, while at the same time many foreclosures are being priced at market rates so they’re not depressing overall prices.”

“‘The banking industry tried to stagger putting the foreclosures on the market,’ said John Hilston, associate professor of economics at Eastern Florida State College. ‘I have some concerns as to how much of those are still out there. I know that staggering slowed down the rate (of foreclosures) because they didn’t want to crash the market. Because of that, I think foreclosures are going to continue to be a bit of a drag.’”

“Fannie Mae is purposefully ‘trickling’ foreclosed homes into the market, said Mitch Ribak, broker/owner of Tropical Realty Suntree and president of the Space Coast Association of Realtors. Tropical Realty is a Fannie Mae broker and the mortgage association recently added six more brokers to Brevard to help push more of those properties through the market. There are lots of foreclosed properties — no one knows what the exact number is but it’s likely in the thousands. If all of those properties flooded the market, it would be devastating, Ribak said, so the trickling strategy makes sense.”




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44 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-03-24 05:02:51

A little history:

‘Florida was not yet a state when on March 14, 1844 — 170 years ago today — the territorial legislative council voted to create Marion County. It would be eight months before the first official legal transaction was recorded, ironically a mortgage foreclosure against Col. Gad Humphries.’

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 08:58:13

Meanwhile, Zillow CThief Economist Stan Humphries reports foreclosures at lowest levels in US history.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-03-24 05:42:55

That’s if the bank is in a rush to do so, which may not be the case. The opportunity is there to deliberately slow the foreclosure process in order to delay paying overdue property taxes, as well as bringing the properties up to code. ‘Foreclosures got so backlogged that the banks are keeping them in the property owners’ names as long as possible,’…

Aren’t there laws about how long banks can wait before taking possession of the foreclosed properties, including tax liability and maintenance costs? Are such laws not enforceable?

I’d think it would be in the interest of municipalities suffering foreclosure blight to get these properties reoccupied with young families that could take care of them and more generally make positive economic contributions to their local communities, including tax payments on properties that currently sit vacant.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-03-24 07:22:16

Laws only apply to the little people and not to the Banking Clan.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-03-24 07:42:23

There used to be accounting laws that didn’t allow banks to hide ongoing losses. Used to be.

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-03-24 08:26:05

‘The number of new foreclosure cases filed in Palm Beach County during February is nearly half of the cases filed the same time a year ago. ‘There were 744 properties sold at foreclosure auction in February, according to statistics. Of those, 587 were sold back to the plaintiff – typically a bank or mortgage company – in the foreclosure proceeding, and 157 were sold to a third party.’

‘There were 507 sales canceled in February, out of 1,251 scheduled for sale. The cancellation rate was 40.5 percent, compared with 36.4 percent in January.’

 
Comment by j-j-j-joe
2014-03-24 11:28:32

mark to market had some weaknesses but was definitely better than what has transpired in the past 5 yrs.

 
 
Comment by DaniW
2014-03-24 08:50:15

I know there is a law that says the banks need to sell a foreclosed house within ten years but I don’t know of any law that forces them into the foreclosure process. IANAL, however.

 
 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2014-03-24 06:24:53

Happy Birthday Ben!

Comment by jose canusi
2014-03-24 06:34:41

Didn’t know it was his birthday. Happy Birthday, Ben!

 
Comment by Captain Credit Crunch
2014-03-24 06:53:13

Happy birthday, Ben. :) Did you think the blog would be around 10 years when you started it?

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-03-24 07:58:10

Here’s a birthday present from China:

‘Groups of angry homeowners put up banners and demanded their money back after Hong Kong-listed property developer Wharf Ltd. cut prices on new homes in an eastern Chinese city, in the latest sign of stress in the nation’s property market.’

‘Around 20 homeowners picketed outside a property showroom in Changzhou Saturday, demanding to meet executives of the developer. They said they wanted their money back after prices at the project, called Phoenix Lake Garden, were cut by as much as 16%, according to the protesters.’

‘Meanwhile, there was also a small disturbance at a second project called Ambassador House in the same city after the same developer cut prices there. According to property agency Soufun Holdings, Wharf cut prices of 20 apartments in the project to 8,200 yuan ($1,317) per square meter, down from the average 11,000 yuan per square meter it recorded in recent months.’

“Wharf, give us justice. Return us our hard earned money,” read one of the banners, held up on bamboo poles outside the Phoenix Lake Garden showroom of a project for mid- to high-end apartments and villas.’

“We aren’t speculators. We just want an explanation from the developer,” said one 35-year-old home buyer, who said he had bought an apartment and gave his surname as Wu. “This is very unfair.”

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 08:01:26

““Wharf, give us justice. Return us our hard earned money,” read one of the banners, held up on bamboo poles outside the Phoenix Lake Garden showroom of a project for mid- to high-end apartments and villas.’”

This gives me visions of tens of millions of chinamen wielding sharpened bamboo poles swarming and flushing out Chinese GovThugs across the country.

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Comment by Puggs
2014-03-24 09:48:22

“We aren’t speculators. We just want an explanation from the developer,”

You’re not a speculator??! Really? You sound just like a typical American investor who just got screwed. If you were living in the house and working everyday would you have time to make a banner and picket? Wouldn’t you be doing something more productive instead of caring what your potential neighbors paid? Here’s a little advice from a specuvestor who learned a very HARD lesson - you voluntarily gave your money for this depreciating asset, nobody put a gun to your head and not all investments go up. Investing is not always “Fair” that’s why it’s called RISK. It’s on par with gambling - there will always be more losers than winners. Just be thankful you learned this hard lesson at 35.

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Comment by aqius
2014-03-24 10:16:51

asians want their money back? too ironic!

here in the good ol’ US of A anyone alive during the past 30 years, who has ever shopped at a chindian establishment knows the ironclad rule:

NO REFUNDS.
NO EXCHANGES.
ALL SALES FINAL.

refund?
REFUND!?

you boys just push that corvette back on outta here.

 
Comment by Puggs
2014-03-24 10:36:11

It’s always hardest to take ones own medicine.

 
Comment by Mugsy
2014-03-25 01:23:20

The only thing that hurts more than being gored by an ox is being gored by your own ox.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2014-03-24 10:04:34

I just love the lost investment mantra whine “we want our money back” Waaaaaaa, grow a pair.

For some reason people feel justified to demand their money back when they feel they’ve been victimized. Never mind the euphoric smartyness they felt when they voluntarily gave over their “hard earned money” for a risky asset while bragging about their investing prowess wondering why you wouldn’t do the same?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2014-03-24 10:18:01

‘Return us our hard earned money’

What’s interesting is this has just begun. When the first news came out (from Hong Kong, I think), the report was some FB’s trashed the sales office! It was mentioned the buyers were sore at the government, even though the government has been telling everybody and their dog that they were going to do this. Imagine what these people will do when the price drops get more serious and widespread.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 10:27:19

“Imagine what these people will do when the price drops get more serious and widespread.”

Here or there?

It will be a beautiful thing regardless of where.

 
Comment by Pete
2014-03-24 23:37:47

“Here or there?
It will be a beautiful thing regardless of where.”

Poetic justice.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 06:39:56

This;

‘The banking industry tried to stagger putting the foreclosures on the market

then this;

“Fannie Mae is purposefully ‘trickling’ foreclosed homes into the market,

Well?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-03-24 07:12:36

“If all of those properties flooded the market, it would be devastating, Ribak said, so the trickling strategy makes sense.”

It only makes sense for the parasites.

The Fed is buying every scrap of mortgage paper for how long now? I doubt they will ever foreclose on these mortgages. They will make the whole country look like Detriot.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-03-24 07:14:22

Detroit.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-03-24 08:58:03

In a fetid swamp.

Comment by Holly
2014-03-24 09:43:40

Florida homes decompose faster than Detroit homes.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 10:30:50

I dunno. What’s worse? All that twisting and racking day after day from temperature extremes in the north or the oppressive humidity?

In the case of CMU wall profiles, the damage is less in the south.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 10:43:49

And that goes for foundations too. I don’t care what you do, if there’s frost, it’s gonna move. I’ve seen frost shift and heave stuff that you’d think only God or DynoNobel could move.

 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-03-24 11:04:01

Interesting you should mention this. I’ve been reading this book about the Greenland settlements during the Little Warm Age (800-1100) and beyond (the settlements died out around the early 1400s because of cooling, after fighting it for a couple hundred years).

Anyhoo, I just read something in the book about frost shattering even the stone used to build the houses there. I thought that was really interesting, I had no idea.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 11:10:01

Depreciation is a bitch.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-03-24 15:44:26

The house in NJ I lived in 45 years ago has depreciated to less than zero. It was in the news yesterday. Once part of a grand estate. Abandoned, an ancient hemlock fell upon it, crushing the chimney. Ivy completely covers the entire front of the house. They found a body inside, murder most likely.

A depreciating house is a shallow grave.

 
Comment by Paladin
2014-03-25 02:18:56

Fascinating. The house where my mother was born just sold for 28 times the inherited estate value established in 1961. Portland, Oregon.

Tale of Two Cities.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-25 02:41:41

Tale of One Fraud.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2014-03-24 07:19:08

From the Palm Beach Post story: 8072 Burlington Ct., Lake Worth, FL 33467

The tattered-tarp over the hole in the roof sure adds to the ambiance. Tried to get a Google street view, but the home is also located within a gated community with security.

Comment by rms
2014-03-24 07:24:17

Seems like the Lacuna Golf and Country Club HOA’s by-laws would be durable and swift?

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2014-03-24 07:30:40

“‘Call it the return to the old normal,’ Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for Hanley Wood in Washington, D.C., said in a statement. Smoke added that ‘no one should fear this is a harbinger of housing deteriorating — it’s actually a reflection of the existing home market getting better.’”
___________________________/

I’d say this guy is blowing smoke. Heh heh.

I am seeing a lot of houses with for sale signs — not as many as in 2006, when it seemed like every third or fourth house was for sale, but still a lot. In the last three years, probably half of my neighborhood’s remaining stock of smaller 3/2 places have been bought and bulldozed and replaced with McMansions.

 
Comment by John D
2014-03-24 07:56:28

Interesting.

 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-03-24 08:26:57

“There are lots of foreclosed properties — no one knows what the exact number is but it’s likely in the thousands. If all of those properties flooded the market, it would be devastating, Ribak said, so the trickling strategy makes sense.”

Devastating for whom? RE agents? Banksters? FBs who paid too much? Property tax assessments? (actually, not really on this last, I’ve seen some property tax assessments recently that are surprisingly realistic, with the for sale price being like double the assessment value).

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-03-24 10:33:22

Headline: 22,000 (US) mortgage workers fired in fourth quarter

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 10:53:52

I posted a link thats probably in moderation about how Bank Of America “doesn’t believe there is any housing recovery”.

Is there anyone beside those who have a stake in the direction of housing prices that does?

Comment by j-j-j-joe
2014-03-24 11:30:36

B of A put out an entire whitepaper about how there is no real housing recovery. If even an institution that desperately needs a recovery doesn’t see one, it is not there.

 
 
 
 
Comment by SunKissedBeach
2014-03-24 15:56:04

Happy Birthday Ben!!

I hope it’s a great one, as you are so worthy of greatness.

I have not posted here in such a long time.
This article caught my eye as I do live in Palm Beach County.

I have noticed that REO properties are selling for a lot more than they were in 2010 when I purchased. There are so very few available now, when I purchased there was hundreds to choose from. Crafty banks now have gotten a bit smarter.

My friends just picked purchased, the inspection says 74,000 in repairs but I think it will take a lot more than that, ( who can do an entire kitchen for 10,000?) I paid that for just my appliances they paid 200,000 as a cash deal. The entire house is in horrible dilapidated, vandalized, pretty much stripped of everything shape.
I was approved for 210,000 for the exact same home in the same area in 2010, and at that time, I changed my mind and went with something else.
For a cash deal, I don’t think they make out very well but this guy also paid cash for another one in 2004 on the street that I live on, he paid 320,000 for something that is now worth 294,000 ( and he put in a 60,000 shop)
Yikes.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-03-24 18:28:11

And you both got ripped off.

 
 
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