June 8, 2006

‘Housing Market Mania Is Ending’ In Arizona

The Arizona Republic reports on an economic study. “The University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management said Wednesday that the state’s economy will experience a major slowdown in the second half of 2006 as inflation pressures mount, interest rates rise and the housing market cools.”

“‘Consumer budgets are also being squeezed, and that’s going to force (them) to curtail their spending as we go forward,’ said Marshall Vest, director of Eller’s Economic & Business Research Center. ‘Housing is backtracking as it returns to some sense of normalcy.’”

“Vest said the best-case scenario has Arizona’s economic growth continuing at a ‘fairly high level,’ just slower. His worst-case scenario: The economy sinks into a short, mild recession.”

“‘The economy has been growing well beyond its potential and now we’re feeling some inflationary pressures,’ said Vest. A slowdown is normal and overdue, he said. Last year, Arizona experienced its largest economic activity surge in history, Vest said.”

“That momentum lasted into early 2006, but Vest predicts a rapid slowdown that will result in a ‘growth recession,’ or growth at a rate slower than the long-term trend, in 2007 and 2008.”

“As consumers begin to worry about jobs, they’ll cut spending and repay debts, he said. ‘The party is over for consumers,’ Vest said. ‘They’re going to have to pay back some of that debt.’”

“The ‘housing market mania’ is ending, becoming a neutral force or a drag on the local economy, Vest said. Tucson markets will spend the next couple of years ‘adjusting to a frenzy-less environment,’ he said. ‘It’s an orderly retreat from the excesses of the frenzy days,’ Vest said.”

“The number of homes sold in Tucson is down, representing fairly significant, almost scary declines, Vest said.”

“Tucson, Phoenix and Flagstaff made national lists of overvalued housing, becoming some of the only inland cities to earn that distinction.”

“Current economic conditions strongly favor renting, which means rents could quickly soar, Vest said. Rents haven’t gone up significantly in five years, housing is less affordable and condo conversions have shrunk the supply of apartments. Builders will soon see demand for new apartment complexes and could change some condos back to apartments, Vest predicted.”




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58 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-06-08 13:39:29

AZ Star tried a quick one by changing the quotes in yesterdays article, but this blogger stashed the url.

On another topic, check out this press release:

‘Southern Arizona, home of blazing hot days and Saguaro cacti is also home of a “blazing hot” real estate market. Real Estate appreciated almost 30% across the state of AZ in 2005 while the rest of the country averaged about an 8% increase..Though the market has slowed down a bit in AZ, it has been predicted that steady “above average” appreciation is expected to continue for at least the next 10 years here in the Grand Canyon state. While this is great for current home owners and investors a like, who it is not good for are those who are still renting, expecting that they will buy a home in AZ when they ‘are ready’ or when they ‘have enough for a down payment’, or the most common, ‘when their credit improves’. None, I repeat, None of the reasons are ‘necessarily’ a road block to home ownership in today’s market. In Fact using these excuses to delay buying your own home could cost you a lot of money in the long run.’

‘For those who currently rent in AZ and are expecting to buy in AZ (but?) do not buy soon they may find themselves completely priced out of the market and unable to afford home ownership.’

Comment by crispy&cole
2006-06-08 14:09:21

‘For those who currently rent in AZ and are expecting to buy in AZ (but?) do not buy soon they may find themselves completely priced out of the market and unable to afford home ownership.’
________________________________________________

So what happens when no one can afford a home??? Ohhh - Prices just keep going on - sorry. No bubble here, move along…

Comment by nnvmtgbrkr
2006-06-08 14:55:13

“So what happens when no one can afford a home??”

Exactly! This spin has been for some time now and rarely does anyone ask themselves this simple question. Because if they did, the door would open to understanding just exactly what is going on here. It really is quite simple. No one on this blog invented the wheel here.

 
Comment by Out at the Peak
2006-06-09 01:22:34

If new investors don’t hurry, they can only buy four houses instead of the average eight houses that everyone else has.

 
 
Comment by dannll
2006-06-08 14:15:44

Hahhahahhahahaa!

 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-08 14:18:03

“‘For those who currently rent in AZ and are expecting to buy in AZ (but?) do not buy soon they may find themselves completely priced out of the market and unable to afford home ownership.’ ”

creeps.

 
Comment by Mo Money
2006-06-08 14:33:54

nice touch citing only 2005 numbers. Guy looks like a Palooka too.

Comment by Michael Viking
2006-06-08 16:20:52

He does look like one!

“I ‘ m one tough Gazookus which hates all Palookas” - Popeye

 
 
Comment by dizzylizzy
2006-06-08 14:50:30

This type of advertisement should be illegal. They are making false and unsubstantiated statements about real estate. “it has been predicted that steady “above average” appreciation is expected to continue for at least the next 10 years here in the Grand Canyon state.”
All this in the face of 344% yoy invetory increases for the state (see: http://www.armls.com/pdfs/HmSalesArmlsApril05.pdf and http://www.armls.com/pdfs/HmSalesArmlsApril06.pdf ), rising interest rates and stagnating listed prices and dropping sales prices (see: http://www.azcentral.com/class/marketplace/homes.php )
This guy is trying and probably suceeding at making money from the poorest, least educated, most likely to get stuck in a bad situation and never dig out of it people he can find “first mortgages, second mortgages,
refinances, 15 year, 30 year fixed rates, the new 40 year mortgage, adjustable rate mortgages or ARM’s as they
are called, Interest only loans and even the wildly popular 1% “pick-a-pay” option ARM loan. Current renters
and first time homebuyers are their specialty.”
My favorite part is this, “people make mistakes and that they should not have to pay for those mistakes forever.” Maybe he’s hoping he won’t be sent to prison for his minor moral lapse.
I’m ashamed to be sharing a state with this guy.

Comment by phucktheflippers
2006-06-08 16:36:08

New Record
Phoenix

7/20/2005 10748
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Comment by Davey Jones
2006-06-08 18:40:43

Ahhh, I was wondering about this posting. And was looking for it.

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Comment by dennis
2006-06-08 21:17:12

who it is not good for are those who are still renting, expecting that they will buy a home in AZ when they ‘are ready’ or when they ‘have enough for a down payment’, or the most common, ‘when their credit improves’. None, I repeat, None of the reasons are ‘necessarily’ a road block .

What about the existing owners who did not want property valuse to soar becasue of HIGHER TAXES. They are screwed again!!!

 
Comment by Bill
2006-06-09 00:08:58

‘For those who currently rent in AZ and are expecting to buy in AZ (but?) do not buy soon they may find themselves completely priced out of the market and unable to afford home ownership.’

Yeah, right. Rents and housing prices will go up forever while incomes grow only 2% per year. Right! Guess the guy in that article thinks higher rent prices lead to more apartment construction - supply meeting demand, surpassing it, and causing prices to drop. Oh, hey, just like single family houses! Dolt!

 
Comment by david cee
2006-06-09 08:28:47

Here is the homebuilder picture:

* Homebuilders have negative cash flows
* Homebuilders put the bulk of their profits into buying more land at absurd prices
* Homebuilders are totally ignoring the yield curve
* Homebuilders are discounting the odds of a recession.

That, of course, does not mean that homebuilders will sink anytime soon. They may or may not. There has been one hell of a short squeeze lately, and everyone seems to be playing the trend of 2003 right now. No one seems to see falling sales, rising inventories, sinking refis, and discounts by the homebuilders.

Just two weeks ago, I was told by a real estate broker friend of mine that Atlanta was impervious to a slowdown and there would be no recession coming our way. I note with interest this ad by Centrex.

$60,000 off? Everything is fine in Atlanta?

Everyone seems to think their area is impervious to a slowdown, because of demographics, warm weather, an ocean, or whatever. That seems to be the key to this mania.

Well, I have news for you. An “Interest Rate Squeeze” does not care where you live. Prices matter, as do prevailing rents. Home prices do not always go up. Please click on that link and see what I am talking about. I suspect Toll Brothers and Meritage Homes will find out in due time just how silly that purchase in Phoenix was. By then, it will be too late. It is the overpayment for land that bankrupts homebuilders every cycle. This cycle will be no different.

 
 
Comment by Mort
2006-06-08 13:44:43

OT but I am curious Ben, did you experience the dust storm I heard about a few days ago? Smacks of the dust bowl days of yore. Of course it may not have been that bad.

Comment by Ben Jones
2006-06-08 13:46:22

That must have been in the Phoenix area. We are all watching for smoke here in N AZ.

 
Comment by Casa$Loco
2006-06-08 13:49:27

Dust storms are quite common in central Arizona, and have the added benefit of affording you the oppurtunity to clean an inch of mud out of your swimming pool afterwards….

Comment by AZgolfer
2006-06-08 14:13:28

A picture of the dust cloud moving across the valley was on the front page of yesterday’s AZ Republic. I was taking a golf lesson at Glen Lakes when we were interupted by the storm. No rain until Wednesday.

 
 
Comment by dannll
2006-06-08 14:16:57

Lots of blowing sand in Phoenix area the last couple days. The Ma Nature mixed in a little rain so we had a mud storm. Have to quit washing my car every weekend.

Comment by Marc Authier
2006-06-08 16:53:02

Bah you could be in Indonesia near an active volcano just about to explode.

 
 
 
Comment by desidude
2006-06-08 13:46:37

ALBERTSON’S: 100 grocery stores to close in 5 states

Bloomberg News
Published June 8, 2006

Albertson’s LLC, the supermarket chain partly controlled by private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management LP, plans to close 100 stores, or about 16 percent of its locations, because they are unprofitable.

The grocer will shut 37 stores in northern California, 30 in Texas, 16 in Colorado, nine in Arizona and eight in Florida, spokeswoman Stacia Levenfeld said Wednesday. The outlets are expected to be closed by early August.

Comment by Brandon
2006-06-08 14:06:59

I’m waiting for the $hit to hit the fan in Boise due to the Albertsons sale. The new owner, Supervalu, says they will keep the headquarters staff in Boise for at least a few more years.

Of course, the best of intentions can change if the economic picture pictures. I would not be suprised if high paying jobs are eliminated in Boise much sooner. This could perpetuate a bubble burst in Boise as one of the areas largest employers fades away.

 
Comment by fiat lux
2006-06-08 14:52:14

Albertson’s are far inferior to Safeway IMHO. Good riddance.

Comment by Cbass
2006-06-08 15:01:22

They usually have hotter chicks at them. Well at least in Scottsdale they do?

Comment by Operation
2006-06-08 15:34:31

They are converting the Albertson’s to Bristol Farms market, a poor-mans Whole Foods.

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Comment by Chip
2006-06-08 15:44:33

But are they inferior to SuperValu in Idaho?

 
Comment by Incredulous
2006-06-08 18:14:14

Albertson’s is horrible, and a monumental ripoff. I second the sentiment.

 
 
Comment by azrenter
2006-06-08 21:01:02

albertsons in kingman closing next month.

 
Comment by huggybear
2006-06-09 05:35:38

My brother works for Alberstons and saw this coming a while back. He says it’s all part of the union busting efforts. Alberstons is union, the other (Tru-Value?) is not.

 
 
Comment by desidude
2006-06-08 13:50:39

Main page content:
US surge in unsold homes may herald cooling market
By Christopher Swann in Washington
Published: June 7 2006 17:33 | Last updated: June 7 2006 17:33

us housingThe number of unsold homes on the American market has risen by more than 1m over the past year, a gain of a third, increasing the prospect of a rapid cooling of the US property market.
ADVERTISEMENT
<A TARGET=”_blank” HREF=”http://ads.ft.com/event.ng/Type=click&FlightID=41153&AdID=57330&TargetID=20511&Segments=3099,6198,6235,9122,9179,10158,11059,11353,11693,13043,13306,13432,13522,14052,14316,15288,15545,16157,16683,17741,18316,18348,18489,18571,18876,18952,18962,19119,19313,19724,20188,20936,21052,21193,21510,21680,21799,21845,21848,21958,21979,21993,22049&Targets=3099,22754,7972,15407,23960,6224,23358,18699,22909,24042,20511,20714,21685,21841,22018,23821&Values=30,51,63,77,84,94,102,150,165,239,249,253,494,547,559,575,600,639,666,931,1583,3614,4431,4548,4570,4646,4704,5633,6186,6206,6380,6391,6396,6617,8072,8177,8179,8427,8454&RawValues=&Redirect=http://www.ft.com/screensaver”><IMG SRC=”http://www.image.ft.com/adimages/banner/marketingscreensavermpu.gif” WIDTH=300 HEIGHT=250 BORDER=0></A>

The inventory of new and existing homes waiting for buyers is now approaching 4m.

The surge in unsold homes has been largely due to a release of new properties on the market rather than a sharp slowdown in sales. This suggests that many sellers are eager for one last payout before the halcyon days of the market draw to a close. Speculative buyers may also be trying to exit the market before conditions deteriorate.

Comment by Mort
2006-06-08 14:19:19

From the Merriam Webster dictionary:

halcyon: A mythical bird believed to nest at sea and to calm the waves. CALM, PEACEFUL.

I don’t think that is what we have seen so far in the housing market but some people may need this bird to do its’ thing to stop the incoming tsunami though.

 
 
Comment by desidude
2006-06-08 13:52:20

More evidence of housing slowdown–FT
By Darren Dodd
Published: June 8 2006 08:55 | Last updated: June 8 2006 08:55

UK property pricesHouse price growth is showing signs of levelling out, according to a closely-watched monthly survey from Halifax, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender.

Thursday’s report showed prices grew by just 0.1 per cent in May, similar to figures from rival lender Nationwide last week reporting “sluggish” monthly growth of 0.2 per cent. Halifax’s annual rate of growth stands at a relatively high 9.1 per cent, thanks to weak corresponding figures a year ago.

The new figures put the average cost of a house at £178,997.

Comment by Loafer
2006-06-09 00:10:41

The UK is an interesting contrast - I think the one fundamental difference between the UK and US markets is the lack of overdevelopment in the UK due to lack of land supply and planning restrictions.

There are pockets of oversupply, particularly in “condos” for investors (and I don’t mean “flippers”!) in Northern cities and some parts of London where land supply is easier, but generally the market is more balanced.

Still, systemic prices are pretty high, and a reasonably modest correction either through house prices staying flat and inflation doings it’s work, or through a short term 10-20% if the US economy goes “splat”, is possible.

Regards,

Loafer

 
 
Comment by fred hooper
2006-06-08 14:01:51

“Growth Recession”???!!! One in three dollars of the Phoenix economy is real estate growth related. Take out construction, mortgage lending and sales volumes, add taxes and bond debt to pay for belated infrastructure (freeways, water treatment, etc. etc) and you have a full blown local depression that will make the 80’s look like a cakewalk. This sounds like another “soft landing” salespitch.

Comment by Brandon
2006-06-08 14:10:32

I hear ya- I think 25% of the businesses in the office complex I work in are real estate related- mortgage companies, brokers, etc.

The bubble bust is not only gonna kill those employed (or formerly employed) in the industry, bust a lot of offices will be vacant, depressing commercial real estate.

 
Comment by Waiting in SD
2006-06-08 14:30:23

How do “economists” come up with this crap? It does not take a rocket scientist to be able to see the signs of a major correction coming in the near future. I wonder how much it takes to buy an economist? We should all chip in a couple of bucks to buy an economist that will actually tell the truth to the media, and anyone else who would listen.

 
Comment by Loafer
2006-06-09 00:12:20

“One in three dollars of the Phoenix economy is real estate growth related.”

Over 2 in 3 Euros in Spain.

Spanish retirement homes for everyone…

Regards,

Loafer

 
 
Comment by The_Lingus
2006-06-08 14:16:52

It takes Big Daddy FED to stop “consumers” from consuming. It must really suck to be a weak-willed, gotta have it now, can’t say no, keep up with the joneses schlep.

Comment by Waiting in SD
2006-06-08 14:40:09

Big daddy Fed is going to give a spanking soon with a .5% increase. Unless the NAR can find a way to get Bernanke to reach into their pockets.

 
 
Comment by Cbass
2006-06-08 14:16:55

I am not sure if any of you would be interested but I had a great Idea. I have been looking at these houses for sale on Craigs list and I am appalled. When I zillow them they are usually overpirced by a few thousand and they say instant equity. We should post on craigslist “The Secrets of Real Estate” and put up some links to this blog. Oh that would be much fun me thinks. We could also link that page in Wikipedia that talks about the housing bubble. I think we call this the “Shock and Awe Campaign” oh wait they used that one already. Any thought?

Comment by mmrtnt
2006-06-08 14:29:16

Inviting the unwashed masses from craigslist would more than likely end up swamping this blog with flamers, trolls and nincompoops.

So far, the commentary here has been reasonable, entertaining and informative. Something I’d hate to see change for the worse.

c’est le computique, however.

MjM

Comment by Cbass
2006-06-08 14:56:36

Yes I see your point there but I always like a spirited debate as well as I may help to perpetuate the snowball that is the housing bubble. Every vote counts you know. Even if I reach one person and save them from making a huge mistake well then I will have returned the favor that was given to me by finding these blogs.

Comment by Mort
2006-06-08 15:07:02

No good deed goes unpunished.

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Comment by Chip
2006-06-08 15:50:45

With all due respect, CBass, the great majority of bloggers here do not care for the type of “spirited debate” that would come from openly inviting trolls and contrarians. I’m sure they enjoy their own blogs — putting a thumb in their eye would be counterproductive to the extreme, IMO.

Going to one of their sites and engaging them one-on-one could be a solution to your desire for a more lively exchange.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Cbass
2006-06-08 17:36:09

Could you point me in the right direction as I would relish this opportunity. There is only one piece of data that a bull has left and that is YOY price increases. These will be gone sone and they will have nothing left :)

 
Comment by Sunsetbeachguy
2006-06-08 18:53:09

Those interactions ALL eventually degrade into name-calling and no real debate happens unless it is an actively moderated forum.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Disillusioned
2006-06-08 15:36:56

I too scour the Craigslist RE posts, and when you say overpriced by a few “thousand”, I can show you lists that were bought in January of this year, and are already back on the market for a 70 thousand dollar plus increased asking price from the over-inflated price they paid in January!

Oh, and if you dare try to point any of this out, you usually end up being “flagged” off the face of the board by the pissed of Real Estate Agents and FB’ers. Heh.

 
Comment by Out at the Peak
2006-06-09 01:31:20

Do not try to encourage the likes of CL’s “CableGuy” and “PrimeProperty” to come here and spew incredible garbage.

 
 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-06-08 14:17:43

ob-bla-di ob-bla-da life goes on, ….

Comment by ajh
2006-06-08 17:29:36

But I think the line;

In a couple of years they have built a home sweet home

needs work :)

 
 
Comment by nobubblehere
2006-06-08 14:41:09

“Southern Arizona, home of blazing hot days and Saguaro cacti is also home of a “blazing hot” real estate market. ”

http://www.YourLenderForLife.com

How appropriate

How about

http://www.YourBallandChainForLife.com

 
Comment by need 2 leave ca
2006-06-08 15:46:37

What a dickhead statement to keep Joe Sixpack in debt for life. Nice find, nobubblehere

It Is My Goal To Be “Your Lender For Life” By Giving You The Best Service and The Most Pleasurable Mortgage Loan Buying Experience, No Matter What that Means To You, The First Time and Everytime

 
Comment by Tulip Maniac
2006-06-08 19:15:56
 
Comment by Tulip Maniac
2006-06-08 19:19:13

Oops wrong link…

Why isn’t anyone juming on this one? Hello? Echo?

http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/rfs/169321947.html

 
Comment by ScopeD
2006-06-08 22:36:21

Was talking to a buddy of mine last night. His in-laws have been trying to sell their 3/2 in Glendale, AZ since July 2005. Original asking was $299K (which was ridiculously high even for July 2005.)
Nearly a year later, it’s still on the market. 3 offers have fallen through and they’re just changed realtors. I asked him, “so how much have they cut the price?” His reply: None — They’re RAISED IT!
Oh did I mention they’re paying two mortgages (they moved into their “new house” way back in August 2005.

Comment by Michigan Born and Phoenix Bound
2006-06-09 05:39:43

I also know of a guy in Gilbert (Power Ranch) that couldn’t sell his home for what he wanted 600k (3,000 sf) so he is looking for a renter. He is asking $2,000/month.

 
Comment by OutofSanDiego
2006-06-09 05:41:01

I have no feelings for realtors, but it cracks me up the way the owners insist on a higher than realistic price, then blame their realtor when no one wants to buy it. I have seen this over and over. I read today about a RE Brokerage in SouthWest FL who is refusing to take listings unless the seller lists for 5% under market, and they also require a $495 non-refundable administration fee for the listing. My how things have changed.

 
 
Comment by Michigan Born and Phoenix Bound
2006-06-09 04:08:54

I have spent the past year on and off looking through homes in the Phoenix area and only now am receiving calls from real estate agents. I received two calls from Ziprealty too. Yesterday I received a cards from Capital Pacific and Pulte. Keller Williams sent me a “Disclosure agreement” with a book on buying a home in Phoenix (it was sent 2 day air by UPS). Wow, these guys must be hurting.

 
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