Elvis Has Left The Building
The Press Enterprise reports from California. “Home sales across Southern California fell to a six-year low as median prices rose to its highest point since 2008, DataQuick said. ‘Southland home buying got off to a very slow start this year, with last month’s sales coming in at the second-lowest level for a March in nearly two decades,’ DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said in a statement. Freda England, of Century 21 Lois Lauer Realty, said prices are going up really high, really fast and that’s making buyers and sellers think twice. ‘There’s still a little hesitancy because of the economy,’ she said, pointing out that the market seems to be in somewhat of a watch-mode.”
“Rich Simonin, broker and co-owner of Wescoe Realtors, offered another view. ‘Elvis has left the building,’ he said. ‘The last rungs of investors are gone, and I think that’s taken unit sales down.’”
The Orange County Register. “Sales of new and luxury homes in March helped boost the Orange County median home price to $580,000, the highest point in seven years, according to DataQuick. The overall number of home sales continued to slide, however, down 5.8 percent, though sales of new homes nearly doubled from a year ago as more projects made a debut. Data also released this week by Steven Thomas show that Orange County’s housing supply is on the upswing, with 6,115 active listings, a 29 percent increase since January.”
“More buyers this year are looking for homes rather than investments, agents said, so the criteria is different from the frenzied bidding wars of last spring, when anything with four walls was a quick sell, often above the asking price. ‘An upgraded, well-maintained, priced-well home … is moving quickly with multiple offers,’ said Andrea Ballesteros of First Team Real Estate in Laguna Beach. But, she added, ‘we are seeing price reductions on homes that are not upgraded, not maintained well and do not show well.’”
The Los Angeles Times. “Southern California home prices are surging as the spring buying season heats up, with the median price in March hitting $400,000 for the first time in six years. But a deeper look at the market reveals a recovery divided between the rich and everyone else. The market for high-dollar homes is hopping, with sales on the rise and buyers launching bidding wars. But sales of low- to medium-priced homes have plummeted during the same period — with many potential buyers priced out.”
“‘Housing affordability is really taking a bite out of the market,’ said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors. ‘We haven’t seen this issue since 2007.’”
“Carey Chenoski, a real estate agent in Redlands, said she has seen less interest in homes for sale lately as first-time buyers struggle to afford the new higher prices. There are more homes on the market than last year — which is keeping further price growth in check — but they’re not selling. That is frustrating some sellers. Chenoski recently saw the price on a three-bedroom in Redlands reduced to $299,000 from $315,000 — and it still didn’t sell. So it was taken off the market. ‘Lately on Saturdays and Sundays, you see open house signs everywhere,’ she said. ‘The houses that last spring would be gone in the first day are sitting maybe 60 days.’”
“The number of homes listed for sale in March, while still historically low, was up 54% in the Inland Empire and 64% in Orange County compared with the same month last year, according to the website Realtor.com.”
The Mercury News. March marked more than 20 consecutive months of year-over-year price gains for single-family homes in the East Bay, South Bay and Peninsula, according to DataQuick. But the number of March sales in the Bay Area was the lowest in six years. In Contra Costa County, price gains have shrunk the supply of homes for sale for less than $300,000, according to Marilyn Cunningham, president of the Contra Costa Association of Realtors. That’s made it tough on first-time buyers, she said.”
“‘If I have client that’s a first-time buyer and they want to look under $300,000, that knocks out Concord,’ Cunningham said. ‘The house you could buy a year ago for $250,000 to $300,000 is now selling for $425,000. It’s the same in Martinez.’”
“The Contra Costa Association of Realtors said there’s hope — its latest figures show the inventory of homes has begun to grow. ‘For the first time in recent memory, supply is poised to outstrip demand,’ the association reported.’
The Press Democrat. “In the last five years, sales of entry-level homes have never gotten off to a slower start in Sonoma County, while transactions for move-up and luxury properties have never been so strong at this time of year. The jump in higher-end sales helped push the county’s median sales price in March to $498,000, according to The Press Democrat’s monthly housing report compiled by Pacific Union International VP Rick Laws.”
“The median price has increased 56 percent in the last two years and now stands at its highest point for the month of March since 2007. Buyers last month purchased 353 single-family homes, a decline of 12 percent from March 2013. Real estate brokers said the pace of sales in the different price segments has been noticeable. ‘It seems like the bottom of the market has kind of gone stale,’ said Belinda Andrews, a broker associate for Century 21 in Santa Rosa. Meanwhile, she said, buyers were snapping up properties priced at or above $700,000.”
“One change in the market is that more buyers now are canceling transactions when issues arise, said Gerrett Snedaker, a senior VP in Sonoma for Wine Country Group by Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate . Those spending $900,000 on a home aren’t as willing to make thousands of dollars in unforeseen repairs without some concessions from the seller. ‘The buyers are fighting back,’ Snedaker said.”
From KCBS. “A new report by RealFacts, which provides an apartment database and tracks rental market rates has found that Bay Area apartment rents have reached record levels. Stephen Levy, Director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto, said the skyrocketing prices are having wide-ranging effects. ‘There are two challenges to a hot economy. One is traffic and high rents and housing prices are a second piece,’ Levy said. ‘Eventually, companies will be less likely to expand here [the Bay Area] because the people they are looking to hire will be looking at very long commutes or very expensive home prices and rents.’”
“And on whether the ‘coolness’ factor of living in the Bay Area or Los Angeles will wear off, Levy had some interesting thoughts. ‘I think people are struggling to deal with the fact that this is a hot area, we’re going to be more dense, and there’s going to be more traffic unless we handle it. It’s a challenge. If you want low housing prices and really good traffic, have a deep recession,’ he said.”
Are home sales off to a slow start in your area?
What seems to be off to a zero start in my area is the “obsolete commercial to upscale rental” conversion craze. Last summer that was most of the construction activity. I don’t see any new projects like this and one that appears to be stopped at the Tyvek stage.
Peak homebuying season starts slowly
By Jonathan Horn
11:50 a.m. April 15, 2014
Homes in Carmel Valley, San Diego on a recent Friday. Homes in Carmel Valley, San Diego on a recent Friday. — Hayne Palmour IV
San Diego County’s housing market is off to one of its slowest starts to peak buying season, which began in March.
…
DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said there are a variety of reasons for this year’s slow start.
“The inventory of homes for sale remains thin in many markets. Investor purchases have fallen. The jump in home prices and mortgage rates over the past year has priced some people out of the market, while other would-be buyers struggle with credit hurdles,” LePage said in a statement, “Also, some potential move-up buyers are holding back while they weigh whether to abandon a phenomenally low interest rate on their current mortgage in order to buy a different home.”
…
That can keep saying inventory is low, but it ain’t really so when you look at the numbers. It is just an excuse. Inventory is higher than last year and things were selling then. Those are the numbers. No one ever calls them on it.
It is price. Price, price price. No flippers can make the numbers work any more and the FHA pulled the rug out. Buying now is flushing money down the toilet.
I agree.
Investors can’t make money on selling flips because the base price is too high. Only the dregs foreclosures are left.
Banks can’t make money on originating loans because the secondary market evaporated. This includes FHA pulling the rug, and Fannie/Freddie getting choosey.*
Investors can’t make money on renting flips because wages are too low to make a rental cash flow, and I think we’re maxing out the renters’ capacity to consolidate 2-3 incomes into one dwelling.
IMO rental-backed securities are going to die with a whimper. Unlike mortgage-backed securities, RBS never had a historic record of safety that it could coat-tail off of. At best they will be a niche product for risk-loving investors with money to gamble away.
So what’s left? Whaddaya know, actual fundamentals. And we don’t have ‘em.
——————-
*I know that Ben likes to use the example of defaults on Harp and Hamp, but those are 2006-era loans which are still being worked out. Fannie and Freddie were much pickier for new loans almost as soon as the gov took them over.
Inventory is low were i have my rental homes. Lower priced rental homes provided better rental yields. Smart investors know this.
And you’re underwater with negative cashflow.
Your point?
I paid cash for my rental homes. They were basically free when i bought them in 2009. 75-85% off :} from the housing boom. They provide 17-23% annual rental yields.
‘They were basically free’
Uh huh. So where did you get the money?
All I can tell you is to expect no mercy when we make offers on your crap shacks. And bring all that rent money to the table, if you didn’t spend it, that is.
I am a wise investor. I am a penny pincher. I save my money and plan for my next wise investment :}
Housing is not going collapse as most of the people on this blogs wishes.
Since i paid cash for my homes i could go thru 5 housing crashes and not worry ,since there will always be millions of renters. I am all set up:}
And you’re losing your shirt. I’d be afraid right now too.
Prices went up in San Diego +$75,000 in one month.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/
San Diego, CA Housing Prices Crater 8%; Inventory Explodes 72%
http://www.movoto.com/san-diego-ca/market-trends/
San Diego prices went up $75,000 in one month.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/
Try buying a house in San Diego, You will get outbidded by 25 all cash investors. Many from China,or Mexico.
? Housing demand is collapsing.
‘San Diego prices went up $75,000 in one month’
This is just pathetic.
http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-diego/
Housing will continue to go up. Chinese investors are going to swarm California housing before you know it.
San Diego up+$75,000 +14.3 in one month. Let the good times ROLL!!!!!
Between http://www.deptoffraud.com and Movoto, there is a real fog of war these days on the HBB regarding the true level of home prices.
Well I just saw a desirable house in one of the most desirable areas near me that I watch. Put on the market April 1 for 325K, price dropped 10 days later to 300K. A 25 grand cut. Undercutting everything in the neighborhood and the only one below the current “zestimates.” We’ll see what happens. If that sells where it is at it sets the comps heading down bigtime.
Somebody wants out quick.
PS It is still too high. Last sale was Feb 2010 for 226K, just a hair over $100 sq/ft.
The investor-owned place next door still sits empty after a race to get it onto the market by April 1 this year (no fooling!). I wonder if listing it at $100K north (+25%) of the most recent comp is deterring potential buyers?
Short term leasing = freedom. Neighborhood goes south, off you go to a better neighborhood.
Home “ownership” means you are in a very long term lease arrangement with the thugernment. And worse, the “progressive” thugernment moves a low life group next door to you. You are a slave to the thugs when you “own.”
“Neighborhood goes south, off you go to a better neighborhood.”
Entire market goes south, your landlord eats the losses while you rent for the same or less than before.
Buy the home. It’s a great investment. You aren’t earning anything in the bank. And Stocks are over priced :}.
Berkshire Hathaway signs sprouting everywhere.
Same here.
In Boise, the builders who rushed to the higher end may have made a mistake. While median homes prices and sales are up for existing homes, new constriction median prices are up 15.92% vs March ‘13 and sales are down 17.04% vs March ‘13 - not a recipe for success. I speculate that builders miscalculated greatly when they all jumped into the $300k + new home segment while ignoring anything actually affordable.
http://publicstats.intermountainmls.com/static/Reports/Ada/2014/March-2014-Ada.pdf
Meanwhile in my immediate neighborhood, the market is frozen at the lower end - very little is coming to market other than higher priced homes. I spoke to a Realtor and he said things are slow on both sides - buyers and sellers.
Very little rental stock is also coming to the market - what is coming to the market is higher than previous years.
Give it time. Prices have a very long way to fall.
Prices will not ever fall again like the last bubble. If lucky prices will fall 2% in the next 5 years, Prices will continue to go up 1.2%-2.0% monthly ,range of 15-18% annualy.
With 25 million excess empty houses and collapsing demand, what did you think was going to happen to housing prices?
There is no 25 million empty homes. maybe in your dreams. :}
And growing by the day.
Prices will not ever fall again like the last bubble.
If you mean 5 years ago, it’s still the same bubble. And during that they said prices would never fall the way they did. And that was with govt interference to save the banks by not letting it get too bad.
Is Queenie a parody like Amy?
Didn’t the same thing happen to American cars? GM played grasshopper with trucks and SUVs while Toyota diligently perfected cars that were actually affordable.
In the DC area, they solved the small home affordability problem with attached product — condos and rowhomes. The only single family detached houses I’ve seen built in the past 15 years are either McMansions or 55+ communities.
Boise is coming somewhat close - $389k house on 4000 sq ft lot: http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2837-S-Honeycomb-Way_Boise_ID_83716_M24085-04882?row=1
This seems to be the trend now - fairly large and expensive (for Boise) homes plopped on small lots.
Awesome… 22 pix and not a single pic of the yard. YOu guys are going to have serious storm runoff problems in a heavy rain.
OK check that, Zillow has a few more pix and a couple are of the “yard” which looks like a splotch of concrete. And that is that beige-est house I’ve ever seen.
Can somone tell me what is the attraction of these trendy tile backsplashes? They give me a headache.
$40k in materials
$40k lot
$40k labor
Did you ask yourself why it’s priced where it is?
Sorry amigo. But not even in Africa it cost$55 per sq ft to build a home.
You paid too much and now you’re underwater kiddo. Next time you’ll know.
Lol ,im to smart to ever get underwater. I payed all cash and bought at 75-85% off from the housing boom.
‘im to smart to ever get underwater. I payed all cash’
You do realize that underwater is owing more than it’s worth, meaning you borrowed the money? BTW, if you press the shift key when you type a letter, it becomes a capital letter.
When you pay cash for the rental homes ,you don’t worry at all if homes go down 15-25% in value ,since the rentals i bought have gone up 200-250% since 2009.
And you’re still underwater.
That’s not “solving” an affordability problem, it’s a pathetic attempt to make money after overpaying for land.
still booming in socialsit oblast of 22151. Fed still hiring 12,000 irs agents etc.
SIGNS -I remember 7/5/2005 - the bitter end
12000 across the country
Arlington, VA Housing Prices Collapse 29% YoY; Inventory Balloons 46%
http://www.movoto.com/arlington-va/market-trends/
Are home sales off to a slow start in your area ??
Yes, but its misleading because of the historically low inventory for sale…Go to your supermarket, remove 75% of the milk out of the cooler and milk sales would be down…That does not mean there is a lack of demand….
“And on whether the ‘coolness’ factor of living in the Bay Area or Los Angeles will wear off ??
I don’t think many come here because its “cool” unless he is speaking of the weather…
“Low inventory” is a myth.
Remember…… There are 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses in the US. 4.4 million of them are in California.
There is no 4.4 million empty homes in California. You are lucky to find empty homes in any city in California. Talk about being in fantasyland.
And it’s growing by the day.
Their is millions of renters in California and soon millions of potential buyers who lost their homes during the last housing bust. Get rich with real estate. Become the next Tom Vu:}
Also I am seeing inventory exploding. If there was all that demand wouldn’t they be snapped up? Instead they sit longer and longer.
So what is keeping builders from meeting this “unmet demand”?
What demand?
What demand?
Exactly. If there really was unmet demand, they would be building like crazy.
Are home sales off to a slow start in your area?
It sounds like Bubble 2.0 is grinding to a halt.
Are home sales off to a slow start in your area?’
Yes because they are overpriced. Asking a 100K or more over what I paid 2 years ago.
6866 Pecan Ave, Moorpark, CA 93021
For Sale: $499,900
Price Cut (Apr 9): -$49,100
Zestimate®: $474,635
Bedrooms:3 beds
Bathrooms:2.5 baths
Single Family:1,622 sq ft
Lot:7,087 sqft
Year Built:1989
Last Sold:Oct 1989 for $226,000
Heating Type:Other
DateEventPrice$/sqftSource
04/09/14Price change$499,900-8.9%$308GP Real Estate…
04/05/14Listed for sale$549,000-5.2%$338GP Real Estate…
07/01/08Listing removed$579,000$356Homes & Land
04/10/08Price change$579,000-1.7%$356Homes & Land
02/23/08Listed for sale$589,000+161%$363Homes & Land
10/25/89Sold$226,000$139Public Record
“Asking a 100K or more over what I paid 2 years ago.”
And how badly did you get raped?
Inventory were i have some of rentals has gone from 40 homes to 28 homes since January 2014. Homes are fly off the roof. The investors can get good rental income .
Inventory going thru the roof? That sounds right.
Remember and repeat after me:
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL.
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL.
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL.
…
Take it from David Lereah’s grandpa:
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL.
All Real Estate Is Local: What You Need to Know to Profit in Real Estate - in a Buyer’s and a Seller’s Market
by David Lereah (Author)
Kindle
$9.78
Hardcover
from $0.01 40 Used from $0.01 10 New from $3.21
Grandpa told me the story of the biggest mistake in his life every year until the day he died and he always ended the story with the same advice: Never ignore the local marketplace. Grandpa didn’t research the local real estate market. He made his decision about purchasing the skyscraper his business was located in based on what he read in the newspapers and heard on the radio: Across the nation jobs were scarce and families were struggling to make ends meet. He relied on national trends as well as on his experience of what was happening to those closest to him up in the Bronx where he lived – businesses along the Grand Concourse struggling to survive… Grandpa allowed the ills of the nation and the neighborhood where he lived — which he read and heard about every day — to blind him to the activity and prospects of the local marketplace in which his business was located. He had an opportunity to purchase a fifty-story building on one of the most sought-after retail streets in the world for a deep discount, and he missed it. He ignored the rich potential of Manhattan because he was so focused on the nation and the Bronx. He ignored the gravity and pull of Manhattan because of the dismal stories he heard about Newark, New Jersey and Philadelphia. He learned the hard way that local real estate values are determined by local activity. He had made a mistake that he would not let himself, or me, ever forget.
Sounds like another made up story.
Lereah’s pretty impressive from a sales standpoint. Getting people to buy his book is like a salesperson getting people to pay to listen to his sales pitch.
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL…until it isn’t.
U.S. News
Housing Market Slow to Hit Its Spring Stride
Expected Growth Remains Sluggish as Supply Issues Persist
By Conor Dougherty and Nick Timiraos
Updated April 16, 2014 9:54 a.m. ET
A flurry of recent housing data suggests that the market’s spring selling season is getting off to a slow start, a worrisome sign after a winter of expectations that warmer weather would rekindle growth.
Reports from local real-estate agent groups in some of the markets that were the first to rebound, including Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, show year-over-year declines in March home sales. February data for pending home sales nationally—a barometer of early-spring activity—show a decline of 11% from a year ago.
And in markets around the country, fewer people are showing up at open houses. An index of home-buyer traffic in 40 U.S. markets compiled by Credit Suisse was down a little more than a third from March of last year. In some parts of the country, cold weather has put a damper on traffic.
New construction of single family homes is also increasing slowly, according to new data released Wednesday. New building permits for single-family homes in March fell 1.2% below the year-earlier level, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. New single-family home starts rose 1.9% from a year earlier.
“Overall, even after adjusting for weather, it has been worse than what most people expected,” said Tom Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.
…
ALL REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL ??
All Real Estate (values) Is Local….This is true…Its a commodity that cannot be moved…
No. it can be replaced by a substitution and a much lower cost. Youre a contractor so open up your contract docs and read about substitutions in the General Conditions. The same logic applies.
You can’t even build a home in the slums of Cairo for $55 per sq ft.
You’re running scared.
“Rich Simonin, broker and co-owner of Wescoe Realtors, offered another view. ‘Elvis has left the building,’ he said. ‘The last rungs of investors are gone, and I think that’s taken unit sales down.’”
If true, then LOOKOUT BELOW!
But that can’t be right. IE Landlord Queen was in here just yesterday crowing about how great things are there.
Pull out half of the buyers (”investors”) and somehow prices are still going to go up? This is what realtor shills on this board are trying to convince you of.
Limited inventory and competition in the buy-pool has kept other would-be sellers on the fence.
Another reason why we’re most likely not headed toward a bubble? Consumer protection is stronger than ever, and strict lending standards have been put in place so that consumers are not over-borrowing like they were last time.
Lookout below… how far? Housing prices will just drop to where investors think it’s safe to go back into the water. That will be what, 2011 prices?
1998 prices.
I bought alot of my rentals at 1988 prices in 2009. Now the homes have gone up 200%-250% . Not worried of a housing collapse. I still would be up big time.
You could of done it to .
“That will be what, 2011 prices?”
http://tinyurl.com/ngefyat
‘where investors think it’s safe’
They’ve mostly spent their money, and are about to take an ass-pounding to boot. Let me ask this; if the “investors” you are talking about were so fired up about Phoenix a year ago, where are they now that inventory has doubled and prices are down? This points to something very important. They were never buy to rent people. They just had a slightly longer time frame than a flipper. Do you want to know where these speculators will be in the future, maybe even now? Selling, as fast as they can. How do I know they never really meant to hold these houses? They were paying way too much, throwing money away, just to fill “quotas”. Remember the guys who paid over asking when there was no other bidder? Remember the inland empire “investor” who paid over asking just because he owned other houses in the neighborhood and wanted to boost the comps? That destroys returns to a landlord and only makes sense if you are betting on appreciation; fast appreciation.
‘Another reason why we’re most likely not headed toward a bubble? Consumer protection is stronger than ever, and strict lending standards have been put in place so that consumers are not over-borrowing like they were last time.’
So says the “investor” who is out of money and hopes prices don’t fall because he’ll be SOL. This proves my point from above. Real investors are raking in returns, ready for the crash so we can pick up more juicy returns. We’re not baying at the moon, ‘there’s no bubble, consumer protections are strong!’ Bagholder.
“Do you want to know where these speculators will be in the future, maybe even now? Selling, as fast as they can.”
Like they already are across the Pacific Ocean, in China?
It’s only a matter of time before the investor sales tsunami tide crosses the Pacific and hits California shores. Wait for it!
Gordon G. Chang Contributor
Op/Ed 4/13/2014 @ 1:30PM 197,606 views
China Property Collapse Has Begun
Nothing is going right for Hangzhou at this moment. Walmart will be closing its Zhaohui store in that city on April 23 as a part of its overall plan to dump marginal locations—about 9% of the total—in China.
…
Hey Amy, if you want to make some bucks then you are going to have to make some sales. And if you make these sales at higher and higher prices then you will continually add value to the underwater mortgages I that hold.
IOW, you get to do the hustling and I get to reap the rewards.
(Just thought I would remind you of this fact.)
snort
Since realtors have no real skills and can make decent coin in a hot market, what other choice do they have?
Learn some skills commensurate with their limited intellectual means.
Like I said: “No real skills”. Few have the intellect to be anything more than a minimum wage Lucky Ducky.
Sadly the hopebuilders have fired up the bulldozers on the western slope of Black Mountain to build out the latest phase of 4Closure Ranch at the very point when Echo Bubble demand is CRATERING.
This is a natural consequence of relying on transient bubble-era demand to sell your long-lived assets after taking a long time to build them.
What was Bodie,ca RE selling for before the gold & silver ran out?
“Home sales across Southern California fell to a six-year low as median prices rose to its highest point since 2008, DataQuick said.”
If memory serves, then back in 2008 we were in a recession plus at the tail-end of a historic financial panic.
So I don’t suppose it is a healthy sign if sales have slowed to the pace in 2008?
My wife and I were recounting the other day how we bought a car back in spring 2008. That was one of the emptiest dealer show rooms I have ever entered, and boy were they happy to see us!
My wife was at a charity event last weekend when people started to talk about buying cars. My wife said that some people were paying $700/month for a car were crazy. Others looked at her like she was crazy and said that was normal. At least you can still get some with 60 month at no interest if you have to buy.
This is the crux of the whole issue here on the HBB. What is normal ?
Is it the Steroid Era or something else?
Others looked at her like she was crazy and said that was normal.
How many people can afford a $700 month car payment?
And yeah, it’s “normal” if a $40,000 car is “normal”. $40,000 is far more than what the average American earns in a year.
I had the opposite experience. I bought my car in 1999, during the tech and internet stock bubble. I waited until the end of a month, on a rainy day, all the wisdom I could glean from everywhere, but the dealership still was busy and the salesman was closing three sales simultaneously, going back and forth between us.
Recent history proves you can have the BEST deals going into a full blown recession. That’s why they say “Cash is King!!” We got a 7 day resort 2 condo suite for $250 total right in the middle of the great recession! Oh, the glory days!
Keep those skillz dry. You’ll see empty showrooms again soon enough.
My skills got a lot better since I discovered this web site, which I used to great advantage when I bought a car in January 2012 — another time when it was great to go to the empty dealer showroom with cash in hand.
2005 was the peak- 08 was tank city
when they quote 06 it shows how long info takes to be processed
‘Southern California’s tepid housing market took on a split personality in March…Last month across the six-county region, sales of new and previously owned houses and condos fell 14 percent from a year earlier to 17,638 properties, according to DataQuick. That is the second lowest total for a March since 1995 when 17,613 sales of properties were recorded.’
“We are at really low sales levels. This is the second lowest March in nearly two decades. There is usually a lot more activity,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage.’
I don’t suppose it is a healthy sign if sales have slowed to the pace in 2008 ??
Depends on how you want to define “healthy”….
Sales have slowed does not necessarily equate to prices have fallen…At least not in the face of extremely low inventory…Increase the inventory, sales will increase…The price will adjust accordingly to meet market demand…
Currently we have high prices and low sales volume…Quadruple the inventory and that metric would flip over….
If that were true, there would be zero inventory.
Considering the reality of massive excess inventory and collapsing demand, the obvious outcome is falling resale prices to a level under production cost.
Remember……We’re building new housing profitably for $55/sq ft.
Keep dreaming that it only takes $55 per sq ft to build a house in California.
Good evening insurance pimp.
Is IE = Furlow = Lola???
I didn’t get “Furlow” to be “furlough” until right now. I must be slipping.
The article above doesn’t bear out the low inventory excuse:
“Data also released this week by Steven Thomas show that Orange County’s housing supply is on the upswing, with 6,115 active listings, a 29 percent increase since January.”
Sale Signs are now popping up every where you look ….remenicent of the forebode past
Southern California prices went up $17,000 in one month.
Let the good times roll. More money for homeowners to celebrate in Hawaii,Cancun,Rio etc.
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140415.aspx
You’re out of cash. You’re out of options.
California is a great place to rent but not to own. I know some people originally from different states such as Idaho, close to retirement who have lived here for decades and their kids in college now. I’m not sure what the Idaho tax rate is but they are taking their 401ks with them and those 401ks won’t be tapped by the “progressives” in California.
One of my 401ks has quite a significant chunk of money and taking out $50,000 per year means California gets $4500 or so a year from it. Arizona would only take $1700.
As for the $580,000 houses in OC, they are not mucking fuch. Far cheaper to rent. Mobility is always key until you retire.
….unless you prefer to be poor and who wants that?
‘California was one of 19 (states) to see an increase in foreclosure starts — the first step in the foreclosure process — in the first quarter of this year, compared to the same quarter a year ago. The increase is not surprising because of last year’s passage of the California Homeowner Bill of Rights.’
‘Blomquist said the law artificially held back foreclosure activity, creating a backlog of distressed properties. Now, banks have figured out how to adjust to the law and are starting to pay attention to properties that had been “sitting in foreclosure limbo for some time,” Blomquist said, and that has accounted for the increase.’
If Blomquist is correct, then we should see an increase in foreclosure starts in Q2.
We won’t.
The entire increase from Q1 2013 to Q1 2014 was due to depressed foreclosure starts in Jan 2013.
Jan-2013 to Jan-2014 was UP 50%+
Feb-2013 and March-2013 to Feb-2014 and March-2014 were both DOWN year on year.
With millions of excess empty houses in CA, does it really matter?
‘A look at the county-level data shows a wide range of recovery rates in counties within the same region. In hard hit markets such as Fresno and Stockton, Calif. For example, some 20 to 40 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are still underwater. Not far away, coastal counties such as San Francisco (4 percent underwater) and Orange County (7 percent underwater) have fared much better.’
From the email:
California: seriously underwater - 1,066,261
percentage - 13%
Ouch!!!
California: seriously underwater - 1,066,261
percentage - 13%
Apparently a rising bubble does not lift all boats.
Housing is LOCAL!!!
And the Inland Empire AIN’T where you want to own houses.
With the millions of excess empty and defaulted houses in California, it shouldn’t be a surprise that no new construction is taking place.
http://www.propertyradar.com/reports/real-property-report-california-march-2014
Property sales down 13.3%
Non-Distressed Sales, UP 6% Year on Year
Distressed Sales, DOWN 48% Year on Year
And housing demand at 5 year lows in a high housing inventory environment.
Now what do you think will happen to grossly inflated housing prices?
There are more homes on the market than last year — which is keeping further price growth in check — but they’re not selling.”
Why would they sell when everyone knows theyre over priced by300%+.
Have you ever tried to sell your used car at a price higher than a new one?
Howndidnit work out for you?
‘The house you could buy a year ago for $250,000 to $300,000 is now selling for $425,000. It’s the same in Martinez’
Oh, but there’s no bubble!
‘The median home price in Marin neared the million-dollar mark in March, rising 14 percent from a year ago to $955,000, while sales dipped 10 percent…Condo values in Marin jumped 43 percent, with the median price increasing to $532,500. Condo sales dropped even more than single-family sales, falling 29 percent with 47 condos selling in March.’
‘the prices are even more astronomical in San Francisco, so our prices seem like a bargain,” Sterley added.’
Where’s L.A.Y. to announce it’s God’s country?
“Where’s L.A.Y. to announce it’s God’s country?”
That’s EXACTLY the snotty, pompous quote I always remember when I read anything from that carny barker.
How can she still have any credibility at all after that fiasco?
Seriously.
IIRC she said that when announcing Marin’s median went over one million. Here we are again.
April 10, 2007
“It’s God’s country, what can I say,” Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told an audience of agents Tuesday in Terra Linda. “When is the 30 percent decline in Marin County’s market going to happen? Not in my lifetime.”
Here are some other gems from LAY:
“You have, like, no inventory compared to Southern California,” Appleton-Young said. “And Southern California’s inventory is moderate compared to the Central Valley.”
(Is she, like, 16?)
“Also, the commercial real estate market has been “on fire,” suggesting brisk job growth and investment, she said.”
“It doesn’t look like there’s a recession coming any time soon,” she said.
http://www.marinij.com/marin/ci_5639113
Poway, CA Housing Prices Collapse 22% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/poway-ca/market-trends/
Temecula, CA Housing Prices Crater 10%; Inventory Explodes 130%
http://www.movoto.com/temecula-ca/market-trends/
Rocklin, CA Housing Prices Sink 8% YoY; Inventory Balloons 119%
http://www.movoto.com/rocklin-ca/market-trends/
Yuba City, CA Housing Prices Crater 15%; Inventory Grows 282%
http://www.movoto.com/yuba-city-ca/market-trends/
Santa Rosa, CA Housing Prices Sink 6% YoY; Demand Collapses To 5 Year Low
http://www.movoto.com/santa-rosa-ca/market-trends/
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Santa-Rosa-home-value/r_26967/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D26967%252C396534%252C50568%26el%3D0
“And on whether the ‘coolness’ factor of living in the Bay Area or Los Angeles will wear off, Levy had some interesting thoughts. ‘I think people are struggling to deal with the fact that this is a hot area, we’re going to be more dense, and there’s going to be more traffic unless we handle it. It’s a challenge. If you want low housing prices and really good traffic, have a deep recession,’ he said.”
____________________________/
Detroit used to be cool. Duluth and Buffalo too. And back in the day Port Royal apparently was a hell of a party. But I have never heard anyone from Los Angeles or San Francisco doubt that those places will be cool indefinitely. To voice such a doubt is a monstrous heresy.
‘I think people are struggling to deal with the fact that this is a hot area’
Look in the mirror people; you are HOT! There are more dogs here than children, but hey, you are HOT!
Every bubble area is the coolest, man. In the 80’s, Texas and especially Dallas had America’s Team, movies and TV shows were made about it, and those were number one. They had the best colleges, best college sports teams. Everybody was rich or getting there. Magazines said they had the best looking women. Everybody wanted to live there. And coincidentally, it was the top real estate market in the world for 4 years in a row.
I recall back around 2005, a UHS in Sedona AZ told me that town was like Aspen. He’d never been to Aspen, but having come from Santa Barbara, he knew. A few years later he sheepishly admitted that there were foreclosures all over SB. There were plenty in Sedona too. Long story short; theories about how cool a place is are just more after the fact rationalizations for absurd house prices.
All it would take is a 7.5 earthquake and people
would wake up real fast to where they live.
L.A. is the seismic epicenter of the earth
Sacramento, CA Rental Rates Dive 5% YoY; Housing Demand Sinks
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Sacramento-home-value/r_20288/#metric=mt%3D46%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D20288%26el%3D0
I had no idea there was a coolness factor to living in L.A. When did this happen??
2 hours in traffic: cool? Paying $12,000/yr/kid for school: cool? Overpaying for a 900sqft crap shack: priceless.
And the inland empire is the center of the universe.
If you bought I.E. rental homes at 75-85% off from the housing boom. you are sitting on some nice equity.
That would be great if it were possible at anytime in the last 15 years.
Alot of the rental homes i bought were selling for $250-$275,000 during the housing boom,i paid$40-$60,000 for them.
They have increased 200-250% . Thumps up!
And you’re still underwater with negative cashflow.
You’ve got a problem. A big one.
Paying $12,000/yr for schooling in LA. In Bakersfield it is above $9000 and here in Salinas-Monterey it is $12000 to $30,000. There is a lot of money, both old and new floating around.
It’s the Goldilocks weather and the beaches with the stinky seaweed and ice cold water that makes it cool.
Don’t forget the clear mountain air!
You know what gets people spending money? Having some actual net worth. Having actual savings.
I see homeowners who spend big bucks servicing the debt and upkeep on their behemoth houses. They don’t have two nickels to rub together. They’re not going to have two nickels to rub together for a long time. People who have saved money - and I don’t mean locked up in a house, where accessing that money involves taking out loans and putting the house up as collateral - typically spend with abandon.
So, the Fed penalizes actual growth of savings, pushes debt, suppresses in interest rates, pushes inflation. So this all pushes people into risk assets where the only one guaranteed to make money is the “house” - the casino - the brokers. “Where are the customer’s yachts?” is as relevant today as it was 70 years ago.
The policy seems incoherent if viewed from the angle of actually encouraging an increase in spending, and improving the populace’s quality of life. Encouraging savings does that. Encouraging debt and gambling in risk assets does not. That improves the fortunes of Wall Street. A very small portion of the population. The cronies.
The policy does seem coherent if viewed from the perspective that the Fed is simply trying to improve the fortunes of banks and the financial sector in general.
Don’t forget growing incomes. For some reason, when corporations have stagnant incomes, they are considered moribund. But when individuals have flat incomes, that is A-OK.
Actually I do not spend with abandon. My savings were won with a lot of work and taxes. I save for a specific purpose, not for abandon.
+1. Savers rool. Debtors drool.
Fifth column.
That’s a really good description of regulators who go into government, devastate the regulatory apparatus, then head back to the “private” sector to feast on the crippled host.
Fifth column regulators. Entirely too many of them in government today.
So Cal has no inventory at the low end
That’s music to my ears because the value
of my home is going up rapidly. Anything under
470,000 in value in a good neighborhood is nonexistent nearly.
Yet you couldn’t find a buyer for a fraction of what you paid for it.
He doesn’t want a buyer. He wants the house to make him rich beyond imagination.
Vero Beach, FL Housing Prices Collapse 31% YoY; Inventory Doubles
http://www.movoto.com/vero-beach-fl/market-trends/
I’m seeing more listings in RB at a huge increase over where comps listed last year. I guess everyone believes San Diego real estate can only go up at a steep rate of appreciation from here until the end of time? Got belief manipulation?
Case in point: This RB listing is for nearly $400/sq ft, quite a pretty penny north of levels last year between $200-$300/sq ft. The Fed’s housing price reflation program is working fantastically well!
11379 Cloudcrest Dr San Diego, CA 92127
$629,000
HOA Dues: $78/mo.
4 Beds
2 Baths
1,600 Sq. Ft.
$393 / Sq. Ft.
Built: 1982 Lot Size: 5,811 Sq. Ft. On Redfin: 1 day
Status: Active
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Apr 16, 2014
$629,000 —
SANDICOR #140020059
Aug 14, 2013
Sold (Public Records)
$570,000 5.0%/yr
Public Records
Jul 12, 2013
$589,000 —
SANDICOR #130036767
Sep 12, 2001
Sold (Public Records)
$320,000 17.4%/yr
Public Records
Aug 23, 1999
Sold (Public Records)
$230,000 0.5%/yr
Public Records
Aug 31, 1989
Sold (Public Records)
This sale was flagged as a possibly
abnormal transaction.
Abnormal Transaction
$219,000