April 22, 2014

Bits Bucket for April 22, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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253 Comments »

Comment by that_guy
2014-04-22 01:07:15

Funny website that goes into detail about the shootings every day in Chicago - you can just google “illustrating chicago values” and it will be the first. It even has a “shot in the a55 o meter”, LOL!

Probably safer in Iraq than Rahmtown.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 10:52:41

You’re talking about people getting shot and killed there. What the heck is so LOL?

The whole fascination of the right wing media with Chicago is really silly. Karl Rove or someone at Fox News noticed that the president is from Chicago and started talking about Chicago-style politics. Probably less then 10% of the population knows what the eff he is talking about. So now Chicago represents all of the ills that are commonplace American cities. It used to be NYC that played that role. And Fox and Rush and Drudge continually confirm in the minds of the dittoheads all of the reasons that they hate cities and the people who live in them.

Meanwhile lots of youngish people who grew up in the suburbs are enjoying life in the big city, with the high walk score and all of that city stuff. This is evidence for J-J-Joe’s argument that the GOP and its media outlets mainly serve cranky old people.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 11:00:32

The whole fascination of the right wing media with Chicago is really silly.

And I can’t figure out why the far-right bashes Obama with comparisons to Chicago and Detroit. I don’t get it.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 11:48:01

Obama helped ruin Chicago before he started ruining the country as a whole.

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Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 12:44:02

Obama bit my sister once.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 12:57:59

Just once?

 
 
 
Comment by Hi-Z
2014-04-22 11:11:34

You mean those SMART cranky old people?

Excerpt from a NY Times article
(linked from Drudge so it must be a lie)

The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest
APRIL 22, 2014
Americans between the ages of 55 and 65 have literacy, numeracy and technology skills that are above average relative to 55- to 65-year-olds in rest of the industrialized world, according to a recent study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an international group. Younger Americans, though, are not keeping pace: Those between 16 and 24 rank near the bottom among rich countries, well behind their counterparts in Canada, Australia, Japan and Scandinavia and close to those in Italy and Spain.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 11:24:20

Younger Americans, though, are not keeping pace: Those between 16 and 24 rank near the bottom among rich countries,

Why and how would America continue keeping pace with countries with less income and wealth inequality? Not gonna happen.

USA is not a rich country as we were before. Most all of our huge productivity gains the past 40 years have only gone to the rich.

34 years and tears of TrickleDown baby.

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Comment by tj
2014-04-22 11:40:53

comrade! long time no see!

Why and how would America continue keeping pace with countries with less income and wealth inequality?

can you say “self defeatism” comrade? i knew you could!

USA is not a rich country as we were before.

thanks to socialist policies that really got going since the 60s and especially now under your hero obama.

34 years and tears of TrickleDown baby.

typical dumb lib talking point. do you know what supply side economics is comrade?

have you figured out what ‘demand’ is yet, comrade?

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 12:30:50

Most all of our huge productivity gains the past 40 years have only gone to the rich.

everyone benefits from productivity gains comrade.

by the way, it’s smart of you to ignore me since you never have a leg to stand on. but it’s a bit short-sighted since i can squash everything you say without even having to look back for any comment from you. keep ignoring me. it’s much less work for me.

have a nice day komrade closer.

 
 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 11:33:25

yes, socialism has succeeded in dumbing down the younger generation. and that is very dangerous for our country.

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Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 11:55:33

I guess it’s matter of opinion, but 55 - 65 is not generally considered old age. Also, smart old people generally don’t consume the right wing media. Any smart people who do generally become less smart over time.

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Comment by tj
2014-04-22 11:58:03

exactly what i’d say about the left wingers.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 12:16:53

I guess it’s matter of opinion, but 55 - 65 is not generally considered old age.

It’s only “middle aged” if you live past 100. Being that it’s currently 78, then I would say that being 65 is definitely old.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:28:04

Any smart people who do generally become less smart over time.

Let me translate from left-wing to English. If you stop watching CNN, you will not know what the Kardashians are doing. You might know how we are accumulating debt and inflating the money supply but “smart” people know the cool stuff.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 16:28:40

The best example of what I’m talking about is the way that the word “socialism” suddenly became so popular six years ago. Out of the blue the right wing media started using this word and tens of millions of Americans fell in love with it.

You ask Fox viewers what socialism is and they don’t know. Sometimes they give the wrong answer. Sometimes they can’t give any answer. They literally don’t know what they’re talking about. But they don’t care. The right wing media makes them angry at the liberals and they love that feeling of anger.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 16:59:31

You ask Fox viewers what socialism is and they don’t know.

neither will abc, nbc, cbs or msnbc viewers. there are many definitions of socialism.

karl marx gave the most accurate definition.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 17:10:52

That may be true, but it’s the Fox News viewers who use the word profusely. For any given person, there are thousands of words that that person doesn’t know. It’s the use of an unknown word that makes a perons look foolish.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 17:13:13

You’re coming down with a bad case of Lolitis.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 17:19:32

That may be true, but it’s the Fox News viewers who use the word profusely.

perhaps then they’re waking up to what a socialist, tyrannical nation we’re becoming.

For any given person, there are thousands of words that that person doesn’t know.

trivially true.

It’s the use of an unknown word that makes a perons look foolish.

you mean like the people on the left that use the word ‘racist’ and can’t define it?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 17:43:49

That may be true, but it’s the Fox News viewers who use the word profusely.

perhaps then they’re waking up to what a socialist, tyrannical nation we’re becoming

That’s unlikely and beside the point if they don’t know what the word means.

It’s the use of an unknown word that makes a perons look foolish.

you mean like the people on the left that use the word ‘racist’ and can’t define it?

Yes, that would be the same phenomenon. I don’t think that it occurs much less frequently.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 17:46:57

You’re coming down with a bad case of Lolitis.

That’s a great contribution to the conversation, HA.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 18:05:56

I don’t take kindly to counterfeits.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 18:06:27

That’s unlikely

hardly, since that’s what’s happening.

beside the point if they don’t know what the word means.

they’ve got it close enough for government work.

I don’t think that it occurs much less frequently.

i don’t think it occurs less frequently either.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 18:08:42

I meant to write that I think that it occurs much less frequently.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 18:15:44

I meant to write that I think that it occurs much less frequently.

oh, so you think lefties understand what racism is? can you define it?

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 18:33:53

@mightymike

i answered you but it didn’t go through. it was a short response, but Ben might not have liked the direction it was going.

i just wanted you to know that i did answer.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 18:38:33

Yes, I can define racism. Can you?

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 18:47:49

i don’t think you can. wanna try?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 19:15:53

You don’t realize it, but this is getting ridiculous. I’ll go ahead just for the hell of it

Racism involves a couple of related concepts. One is the idea that members of certain races are better in some way than other races. For example, the belief that members of a certain race are less intelligent, less industrious, or more dishonest than members of others races.

Another aspect is the treatment of individuals based on their race. An example of this came up in a little discussion that I had with Dan a few months ago. The subject was the NYC police department’s stop and frisk program. A claim was made by people in New York that stop and frisk was wrong because it appeared to target young minority males. Dan said that it wasn’t racist because black and Hispanic males commit crime at higher rate than whites. My opinion was that that’s the very definition of racism - to treat people in a certain way based on his race, as opposed to treating everyone as an individual. I didn’t think that it was reasonable to treat individuals in a certain way because people who look like them may commit crime at a higher rate than people who don’t look like them.

Finally, another manifestation of racism can a general animosity toward all members of a certain race. This is also called prejudice. Sometimes an individual will have an unpleasant experience with a member of a different race and, as a result, develop a hatred towards all members of that race. That would be an example of what I mentioned above - failing to treat everyone as an individual.

As I said, this is getting ridiculous. But would you like to share you definition?

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 19:33:34

i will share my definition, i promise. but first i want to ask you a couple things about your answer.

by the way, i give you credit for not running to a dictionary..

you said: “One is the idea that members of certain races are better in some way than other races.”

“better” is always a judgement call. there are measurable difference among races. is acknowledging difference racism?

you said: “Finally, another manifestation of racism can a general animosity toward all members of a certain race.”

what if there is no animosity for another race, just favoritism for one’s own?

ok, i won’t ask anymore questions. just answer these (if you want to) and i’ll give you my definition. or tell me you don’t want to answer my questions, and i’ll give you the definition anyway.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 19:43:57

ok, here’s my definition of racism.

racism is any belief that causes one to act or not to act on the basis of race.

a racist action or inaction, is one that is based on race.

here’s an example to illustrate.

2 men. one is drowning in a river and the other has a lifeline on shore that he can throw to the drowning man.

if he throws the lifeline based on race, it’s a racist act. if he doesn’t throw the lifeline because of race, it’s inaction based on race.

it doesn’t even matter if they are the same race or a different race.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 19:45:13

mike, two replies are coming.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 21:00:38

Yes, clearly there are measurable differences between the races. Certain skin tones, facial features, hair colors, etc. are more common among certain races than others. Then there are medical phenomena. It’s well known that consuming too much salt can cause hypertension. That causation is more pronounced among blacks. Pointing that out is not racist.

Favoritism for members one’s own race is a form of racism because the person practicing such favoritism is not treating people as individuals. On the other hand, favoritism for one’s own culture is not racism.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-23 04:09:49

i agree with what you said above and especially that favoring one’s own culture is not racism. many people adopt different cultures during their lifetimes.

 
 
 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2014-04-22 13:41:51

Just another symptom of Obama Trauma… an epidemic among the shrieking tree monkeys of the right.

 
Comment by jawbox
2014-04-22 15:14:07

Someone hit a nerve noting all the Obama voters shooting and killing each other.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 17:44:59

What hit a nerve was somebody joking about people getting shot.

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Comment by jane
2014-04-22 18:59:00

Generalize much?

For your information, there are lots of us who are ‘high-information’ people, who do not get our thought-bytes from the MSM, and who have an aversion to asphalt, concrete, bedbugs, TB, shigella, and all of the other modern conveniences on offer in big cities.

E.g., where people live like rats in cages. Delightful for people who haven’t a clue how not to live a pre-packaged life. A suitable location for those with ADHD. A magnet for psychopaths and those others who require narcissistic feeding.

That’s a few of the reasons why people like us don’t like cities. After a couple months away from the stink and the fumes, you begin to notice how your life was circumscribed.

You oughta try it sometime.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 19:21:28

Actually, I’ve lived most of my life in the suburbs. I’m not criticizing someone’s choice if he or she prefers not to live in a city. Your reasons mostly sound non-political. It’s possible that you may even like to visit cities once in a while.

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Comment by jane
2014-04-23 13:10:36

Mike, I get your point about culcha, and am actually a credentialed elitist snob. However, I’m not willing to fight through the collateral garbage to get to the venues. I don’t happen to find the culcha payoff to be worth the proximity stress. If it’s a sub-zero day that’s snowing just shy of a shutdown in mid-winter, I’ll go.

Thanks anyway for the thought. As you can discern, I am already stuck in Dog’s armpit for now, Northern VA. Qualifies as a ‘city’ by virtue of proximity to the shrill libnazis, bone-deep corruption, homicidal minorities, and perpetually breeding illegal aliens in DC Metro. Moving ‘further out’ doesn’t pay. The time cost of every incremental mile is horrendous.

It can take 45 minutes to go four miles in any direction from Tysons during peak rush (8 AM +/- 1.5 hr, 5 PM +/- 2.5 hrs). Anyplace I’d want to live is a minimum of fifty miles out - beyond where the majority will go. Even then, I’d want a geographic safety buffer between me and encroaching attitude. So make it a hundred miles, in a place with no way to get out via public transportation, in order to keep out the breeding illegals.

Never having been to Lagos, I’d opine that Metro DC is probably better than Lagos - but only just.

There is one - and only one - good thing about the area: get caught in a bad situation (like, a division or entire function is canned) - you walk across the street and get another job. I’m not joking, I’ve seen it happen to a minimum of two people other than me.

Never could figure out why the pm rush hour is actually five hours whereas the am rush hour is more concentrated. Anybody who is better at figuring this out than I am, I’d very much appreciate your insight.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-04-22 12:01:41

It’s a shame that those poor people get trapped into this system that keeps them so dependent on government.

I wonder if there was a law that “everyone” had to carry their own protection, would it be safer?

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 12:12:12

It’s a shame that those poor people get trapped into this system that keeps them so dependent on government.

And the name of the system that traps poor people to be dependent on the government?

Answer:
34 years of Trickle/Down, taxCutsForTheRich, cut wages, cut benefits, cut worker protection, gut Unions, offshoring, public policies to only benefit the rich, war on middle class, crony corporatism SupplySide tripe.

USA: “Livin’ the Neoliberal Repub’s Dream”

Comment by Blackhawk
2014-04-22 13:12:45

Rio, please open your eyes, your just not being realistic in this at all. Chicago has been controlled by the Dems since forever. Their policies have resulted in a terrible situation. If you’re too blind to see it, you’re just fooling yourself.

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Comment by tj
2014-04-22 13:18:18

If you’re too blind to see it, you’re just fooling yourself.

he’s not fooling himself, he’s trying to fool everyone else. he’s just a mouthpiece for the left. the poor ol’ commie comrade closer.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 13:50:40

Chicago has been controlled by the Dems since forever. Their policies have resulted in a terrible situation.

Which policies are those?

 
 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 13:20:35

more than34 years of of steadily increasing socialism.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 13:33:07

Rio, please open your eyes, your just not being realistic in this at all.

When there were jobs and America had not given away the farm to the rich, Detroit was thriving and the Black people had plenty of jobs.

Constantly comparing Obama to Detroit and “Chicago politics” has a racial aspect and you all know it good and well. To the right:
Please open your eyes, your just not being realistic in this at all.

And no, race is not going to be taken off the table of reality just because the far-right says it will be or wants it to be.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 14:40:41

Detroit was dying by the early 70’s during the period when the income tax rate was 70% for the rich. Sorry, but facts are stubborn things and they do get in the way of leftist talking points.

 
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-04-22 15:31:37

Rio,

They’ve been in control of Chicago since the 60’s at least, probably longer. Look it up yourself.

Giving a single mom spending money is a good thing for her and the kids, except that they give them more if the dad isn’t present. Therefore in many young families, the dad takes off so the mom and the kids can have more money. This has result in a higher than normal occurrence for single family homes, which is a main precursor to poverty.

Since Illinois welfare is better than the other states, those seeking help move to Illinois, creating a bigger group of people feeding at the welfare trough.

Not having a dad around means young men grow up without a good male role model. They find that role model in the local gangs, increasing crime of all kinds.
Do you think those boys miss not having a dad around????

Government rules about gun control has the effect of taking the guns away from the law abiding, but not for the unruly. Since the unruly think that the law abiding don’t have a gun, they’re more likely to attack/rob them increasing the crime rate. Politicians run around with armed guards but the little people have to make it on their own.

There are many other things but I’m not about to waste any more of my time.

BH (aka dirtybird)

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 16:44:32

When there were jobs and America had not given away the farm to the rich

how did they ‘give away the farm to the rich’ comrade? what does that mean?

Detroit was thriving and the Black people had plenty of jobs.

because the socialists had not driven it to ruin yet.

if the discussion isn’t about race itself, then the first person to bring up race is the racist. you are the racist comrade. and the worst kind.. a ‘race baiter’. you are pond scum, komrade.

Constantly comparing Obama to Detroit and “Chicago politics” has a racial aspect and you all know it good and well.

more from our resident racist.

To the right: Please open your eyes, your just not being realistic in this at all.

to the comrade: pot meet kettle..

And no, race is not going to be taken off the table

racists never take race off the table.

just because the far-right says it will be or wants it to be.

you will always be a racist, won’t you comrade?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 16:47:01

Constantly comparing Obama to Detroit and “Chicago politics” has a racial aspect and you all know it good and well.

I think that the reference to Chicago-style politics from people like Karl Rove was originally supposed to the Democratic machine that was run by the first Mayor Daley fifty years ago. That machine had a corrupt reputation, including voter rolls that showed dead people voting. I think it’s that history that very little people know about.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 16:53:31

Detroit was dying by the early 70’s during the period when the income tax rate was 70% for the rich.

But it was doing better in the 1950s when the top income tax rate was 90%. So that’s how the Democrats caused the problems. It was that JFK who came up with the idea of lowering that top rate.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 17:05:01

But it was doing better in the 1950s when the top income tax rate was 90%.

nobody paid those rates. there were many, many deductions to take back then.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 15:52:39

No it is following Keynesian bankster economics that is the problem a more libertarian supply side economics is the solution:

http://bastiat.mises.org/2014/04/imagine-if-we-had-free-prices/

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Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 18:28:44

And the name of the system that traps poor people to be dependent on the government?

I believe it was called The Great Society. Looks like ya gotta go back even further Lola. 45 years of failed liberal socialist dreams!

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-04-22 12:21:51

***DUMBED DOWN PARTISAN TROLL THREAD ALERT***

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 13:49:59

Probably safer in Iraq than Rahmtown.

Yeah, right. I’m sure Chicagoans have to deal with car bombs and rpgs.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 14:30:27

It was not true in 2013 due to the major increase in political violence but on a per capita basis most years Iraq is safer than Chicago. The fact that a country of the brink of total civil war has a murder rate around Chicago speaks to the complete breakdown of law and order in Chicago. So where was Obama as a community organizer and a state legislator as this problem became worse and worse?

http://www.gunssavelife.com/?p=11264

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 14:42:35

I do not know when the link will post but with the exception of 2013 with the surge in political violence, you will find that the Iraqi homicide rate is lower than Chicago since about 2005.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 02:41:19

Ventura, CA Housing Prices Collapse 23% YoY On Plunging Housing Demand

http://www.movoto.com/ventura-ca/market-trends/

Comment by ibbots
2014-04-22 09:26:44

D-FW on list of cities with greatest home price recovery.

The losses are indeed incalculable!

http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews.com/2014/04/d-fw-on-list-of-cities-with-greatest-home-price-recovery.html/

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 10:11:52

nnnnnnnope. ;-)

Temple, TX Housing Prices Collapse 31%; Inventory Explodes 133%

http://www.movoto.com/temple-tx/market-trends/

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 02:42:52

Moorpark, CA Housing Prices Plunge 16% YoY; Buyers Disappear

http://www.movoto.com/moorpark-ca/market-trends/

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-04-22 05:21:48

Foreclosure rates dropping: Approaching normal levels
_____________________________________________

According to Black Knight’s First Look report for March, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in March compared to February, and declined by more than 16% year-over-year. This is the lowest level for mortgage delinquencies since October 2007.

Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in March and were down 37% over the last year. Foreclosure inventory was at the lowest level since October 2008.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) decreased to 5.52% in March from 5.97% in February. The normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 2.13% in March from 2.22% in February.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 538,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 619,000 properties year-over-year.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 07:15:07

No mention of the tens of millions of excess empty and defaulted houses eh J_Fraud?

In other news today;

California Foreclosure Starts Skyrocket 57%

http://www.realtytrac.com/images/reportimages/california_foreclosure_starts.jpg

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 09:19:55

“In other news today”

Don’t you mean “in other news a couple of months ago”?

The 57% increase was January 2013 (Homeowner Bill of Rights depressed) to January 2014.

Feb-13 to Feb -14 was down
Mar-13 to Mar-14 was down

Overall Q1 2013 to Q1 2014 was only up 10% (despite January’s spike).

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 10:14:09

nnnnnnope today and foreclosure rates in CA are even higher now.

And imagine what they’ll be when Californias foreclosure moratorium expires.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 08:21:44

Isn’t it ironic to see 2008 referred to as “normal”? 4 million houses in delinquency and foreclosure is normal?

I think the picture that is painted here is the next big leg down. We have obviously passed the first peak foreclosure point and had a marvel of a price bounce. Sure the Fed and FedGov threw accelerant on the fire, but it is a classic sucker’s rally. The fundamentals have not improved one tiny bit this whole time.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 10:20:38

Black Knight (formerly LPS) calls any loan with just one missed payment “delinquent”. In that regard when you look back to data to the mid 90’s, “normal” levels of delinquency is about 5% (delinquency + foreclosures). Foreclosures are usually tiny part of the whole…like 0.5%, and the rest are mainly 1 or 2 missed payment (perhaps 3.5%), leaving about 1% as 90+ days delinquent on their way to foreclosure (some of which are resolved before they get there).

I haven’t seen confirmation of these long-term averages other than the foreclosure number at 0.5%, and the total at about 5%, the split between the delinquent categories is my WAG based on today’s data.

There are about 50MM loans in the US, so “normal” should be about 2.5MM loans, NOT 4MM loans.

In that regard, from my read of the data, the FRONT end of delinquencies are about normal (those less than 90 days).

90+ day delinquencies (but not yet in foreclosure) are probably about 2x “Normal”.

Those homes in the foreclosure process are probably about 4x “normal”.

The pig is in the python, but not yet digested.

In some states there is much less pig left (non-judicial states generally), in other states, they have just begun to digest (NE judicial states and FL are the most obvious examples).

LPS breaks down the “non-current” rates by state each month. As examples of states that have largely digested their pig as of Feb-2014:

CA had a non-current loan rate of 5.1% (delinquent at 4.3%, foreclosures at 0.8%)
CO had a non-current loan rate of 4.2% (delinquent at 3.6%, foreclosures at 0.6%)
AZ had a non-current loan rate of 4.9% (delinquent at 4.2%, foreclosures at 0.7%)

As opposed to the judicial states:

FL had a non-current loan rate of 12.9% (delinquent at 6.4%, foreclosures at 6.5%)
NY had a non-current loan rate of 11.7% (delinquent at 6.4%, foreclosures at 5.3%)
NJ had a non-current loan rate of 13.6% (delinquent at 6.9%, foreclosures at 6.7%)

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 10:48:05

Not 4million loans. 4 Million excess, empty and defaulted houses.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 11:11:02

How is a house “defaulted”?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 11:45:26

CA still has all those houses to process yet. Its a mess in that state.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 13:50:18

LPS (Black Knight) estimates 3.8MM mortgages in either foreclosure or delinquency in the entire COUNTRY. CA has a small fraction of that to process.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 15:41:04

That’s current condition.

Now back to the already defaulted inventory of 4.4 million houses in CA.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 16:36:03

ALL homes with loans are included in their estimate of 5.1% non-current rate (many of whom will cure and never go through foreclosure). This is about 350k homes in delinquency (1 missed payment all the way through being foreclosed upon).

What is missing are those who have already been foreclosed and not resold into the market…there are about 40k of those.

The 350k are “already defaulted” and the 40k are “already foreclosed”.

There is no other “already defaulted” inventory.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 17:03:15

False.

You’ve been schooled on this one before and here you are running from it again.

 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 10:29:34

The fundamentals have not improved one tiny bit this whole time.

From 2008 to the second quarter of 2013, the fundamentals had changed markedly.

Five facts about household debt in the United States

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/08/15/five-facts-about-household-debt-in-the-united-states/

…….Debt levels really are coming down. Total household debt fell another $78 billion, or 0.7 percent, in the second quarter of 2013. Since peaking in the third quarter of 2008, American households have reduced their debt burdens by $1.53 trillion, or 12 percent. Deleveraging really is the story of the last few years. The shift is even more dramatic relative to the size of the overall economy; household debt totaled 85 percent of GDP in the third quarter of 2008, and is down to 67 percent in the second quarter of 2013.

Mortgage debt is where the action is. There has been plenty of attention paid to the role of credit cards and student loan debt in weighing down Americans. But in the overall numbers, housing-related debt dwarfs those burdens. Add the $7.8 trillion in outstanding mortgage debt and another half a trillion in home equity credit lines, and that’s more than three-quarters of all household debt. Even more significant, that’s where all the movement is in the falling levels of consumer indebtedness. All other forms of household debt are actually up slightly since the third quarter of 2008, while the decline in debt levels can be chalked up entirely to mortgages and home equity loans.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 10:53:06

Back on the the stroll eh Lola?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 11:08:25

Also citing evidence which is now about a year old. Due mostly to student loans and car loans total debt has been increasing for a number of quarters.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 11:14:13

From a March 28 yahoo article, now combine that with government debt, federal, state and local and you will see that deleveraging is a joke, some occurred early due to foreclosures and bankruptcies but we are back to going further and further in debt:

The U.S. is in the midst of a private debt crisis.

As of March 2014, American consumers owe $11.52 trillion in debt, an increase of 1.6% from last year. The average household owes $7,115 on their credit cards and the average indebted household owes $15,252. Americans owe $8.05 trillion in mortgages (the average mortgage debt being $152,209) and $1.08 trillion in student loan debt. When combined with corporate debts the U.S. collectively owes about $28 trillion in private debt.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 17:32:02

“$28 trillion in private debt.”

Anyone who renounces debt is an hero and a patriot.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 12:00:14

Add the $7.8 trillion in outstanding mortgage debt

Did they add in the renters who still haven’t pre-paid their next 25 years of rent payments? Because that’s effectively the same debt as mortgage debt.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2014-04-22 16:34:19

Great point Oxide. And don’t forget to add in a CPI increase each year for the rental rate. Buying a home locks in a majority of the costs for 30-years.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 17:02:05

…. at a grossly inflated price.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 17:52:04

“rent…the same debt as mortgage debt.”

Obviously you are not aware of the concept of “degrees of freedom”. It is a math concept well worth the study.

In the distant past a friend of mine bought a pig. The pig had piglets. He found he could get pig feed for free at the local produce distribution center. Tons of food was condemned upon inspection there. So he bought a truck to haul the pig feed. He got a second job working in the kitchen of a local restaurant in the evenings to make the truck payments. He told me eventually that he found it tiring. I said “pig slavery”.

Ha! He killed the pigs, sold the truck, nailed the worn coveralls to a tree and quit the second job. He then had more “degrees of freedom”.

 
Comment by jane
2014-04-22 19:29:15

Blue, I love it. I was taught the fundamentals of df in statistics and experimental design. The theory, awa the application. I love remembering back. A whole new way of looking at the world. Knocked my sox off.

Thanks for bringing it up.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 05:49:05

Some interesting excerpts from a recent column by Pat Buchanan on Ukraine and the rise of nationalism:

“If we can view with diffidence the drive by Scotland to secede from England, Catalonia to secede from Spain, Venice to secede from Italy, and Flanders to secede from Belgium, why would the secession of the Donbass from Ukraine be a problem for us, if done democratically?

Nationalism is the natural enemy of empires, and it seems on the rise almost everywhere.”

“Elections for the European Parliament in May are almost certain to see gains for the Ukip in England, Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France, Geert Wilders Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, and other nationalist parties that have lately arisen across Europe.

These parties in a way echo Putin. Where he wants Ukraine to stay out of the EU, they want their countries to get out of the EU.

Secessionism and nationalism are growth stocks today. Centralization and globalization are yesterday.

A new world is coming. And while perhaps unwelcome news for the transnational elites championing such causes as climate change and battling global economic inequality, it is hard to see any great threat in all this to the true interests of the American people.”

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 06:27:44

Reading Igor’s comment in the China thread, it struck me that “crony capitalism” has been the main driver of globalization. An idea whose time has come to go.

Countries are best served when they can determine their own destinies through the will of the people.

I remember a few years ago when I posted one of my many gripes about globalization, another poster replied “You’ll never put that genie back in the bottle”.

Really?

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 06:31:57

See, for example, the Dark Ages (which I’ve heard said may or may not have actually occurred per one theory).

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 06:38:20

Are you referring to the period that followed the final collapse of the Roman Empire?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 08:27:57

There have been many “dark ages” around the world. Collapse of empire along with massive die-offs followed by centuries of lapse in recorded history. It’s called a “dark age” because there is little recorded about the period for historians to study.

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Comment by that_guy
2014-04-22 08:50:17

I think we’re in a dark ages of sort right now - the war on common sense, co-opting science to focus on global warming are but two examples. Think about the effort to go to the moon, and think about how this country can’t build a website for its glorious health care system today. Then look at all the A-mazing companies going public nowadays that are basically frauds (facebook, yelp, etc.) that are hatched in our business schools. All the institutions in place (big ag, big military, big ed, big pharma, big govt, big real estate, big union) have a stranglehold on this country and with funding from big fed we’re strangling our future in the crib. But its ok because big law ruled that its legal to kill our children.

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Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 08:37:27

Countries are best served when they can determine their own destinies through the will of the people.

Do you think Mr. Banker will allow that to happen?

 
 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-22 07:18:33

Let’s see if SuperPutin stops with just the Russian majority provinces of Ukraine before we chisel him onto Mt. Rushmore. And if he’s such an anti-imperialist, when’s he going to allow the various peoples (chechen, tatar, and many more) within the Russian empire their chance for a local referendum? He seems to meet those requests with an iron boot. Which we’re also told we should admire.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:32:14

More from the Buchanan column:

“While Putin may want the Russians of Ukraine and Belarus back inside a Greater Russia, does anyone think he wants Rumanians, Bulgarians, Poles, Hungarians, Czechs or Slovaks back under Moscow’s rule?”

“Should Putin invade and annex all of Ukraine, not just Crimea and the East where Russians are in a majority, his country would face the same resistance from occupied Western Ukraine Russia faces today in Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya. Putin knows that.

But if Eastern Ukraine in the May election should indicate a will to secede and join Russia, or become a separate autonomous state, why would we automatically oppose that?”

Looks like he just wants the Russians.

Comment by Igor
2014-04-22 07:42:01

What about the chechens and tatars and the other peoples trapped within the Russian empire who want out? Where’s their referendum on secession?

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Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:46:29

At the Boston Marathon.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 07:51:14

+1. Igor does not like Putin because he makes a fool of Obama.

 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:52:00

All kidding aside, I would not be at all surprised if, ultimately, Putin let the tartars and chechens go, AFTER consolidating areas more heavily Russian. Of course that remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the US continues to cede more of its territory to Mexico, de facto.

 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-22 08:02:28

Of course we knew Dannie would rush in to defend the oligarchs’ best friend SuperPutie. Jose you just need to be as cynical about Putiepoot as you are about our own government. Putin’s about as anti-imperial and freedom-loving as Stalin was.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 08:24:33

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. The Soviet Union was an ally of the U.S. against Hitler and we did not insist that the Soviet Union become a democracy to be an ally. Those that oppose globalism need allies, Russia is far from perfect but as in WWII, Russia is a needed ally.

 
 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-22 08:17:37

“Looks like he just wants the Russians”

Well, a bunch of Poles and Ukranians and Moldovans come with the territory when a majority Russian province votes to rejoin Russia, so I guess Putie’s willing to put up with some “foreigners” under his rule. And if the next province over is maybe 30% Russian, but goshogolly they’re being picked on, well we’ll see what happens.

And I fail to see how the Boston Marathon thing constitutes a referendum. Ever thought about a false flag operation? Remember, SuperPutie’s playing chess, not checkers!

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Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 08:53:34

Igor, I’m under no delusions about Putin. A Russian emigre I met in Tampa told me in no uncertain terms what Putin is all about, but her take was that a bit of an iron hand was needed to bring Russia into the 21st century and then re-configure.

My objection is mostly to the interference of Washington in matters that should be none of its concern, especially when there are so many problems at home. Nor do I think Washington ought to be creating all these “color revolutions” at the behest of the EU.

As far as the Boston Marathon, yes, I’ve thought about false flags. My rather tasteless quip had to do with the fact that the brothers Tsarnaev are Chechen, and indeed never should have been in the US in the first place. My take is that they were meant to be trained here to return home and be part of another “color revolution” and that little Fed operation went horribly wrong. Really stinks that their associate in Orlando was conveniently “snuffed” before he could speak out.

 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-22 09:27:32

I’m under no delusions about Putin”

Nor am I under any delusions about the fact that our gov is part of the Banking Clan. But unlike some, I don’t embrace an imperialist authoritarian just because he appears to oppose our own system. I hate them all.

“Bring Russia into the 21st century, and then reconfigure”

I think that’s more or less every dictator’s claim.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 10:19:38

“While Putin may want the Russians of Ukraine and Belarus back inside a Greater Russia, does anyone think he wants Rumanians, Bulgarians, Poles, Hungarians, Czechs or Slovaks back under Moscow’s rule?”

Who knows? Putin may wish that those countries were in Russia’s sphere of influence. I think that he also served as a KGB officer in East Germany. He might like to see part of Germany in that sphere. However, it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to act on those wishes.

The real oppurtunity for Putin to make trouble would be in the Baltic states, which, just like Ukraine, have ethnic Russian communities who feel that they are oppressed minority groups. Buchanan must know about that. It’s surprising that he doesn’t mention it.

But if Eastern Ukraine in the May election should indicate a will to secede and join Russia, or become a separate autonomous state, why would we automatically oppose that?”

The problem is that it’s not possible to have an election in eastern Ukraine that will be similar to the one that will be held in Scotland later this year. It’s not reasonable to think that a fair election cna be held in a region in the middle of an armed conflict.

Looks like he just wants the Russians.

You really think that, Jose? If Pat Buchanan states something, it must be so?

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 10:22:01

But if Eastern Ukraine in the May election should indicate a will to secede and join Russia, or become a separate autonomous state, why would we automatically oppose that?”

Looks like he just wants the Russians.

It’s more complicated than that. It looks like there is no major region in Ukraine with an ethnic Russian majority except Crimea. So why would Eastern Ukraine vote to go to Russia if this is the case? And the term “Russian Speaking People” does not tell the whole tale as English speaking Americans are not English and French speaking Quebecers are not French.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russians_Ukraine_2001.PNG

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Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 08:39:52

Which we’re also told we should admire.

I think that most of those who admire Putin do so because he is willing to stand up to the Banking Clan.

As for calling him an imperialist, all I can say is that those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 08:56:39

Amen, Colorado. That’s it in a nutshell.

BTW, I caught your post about Facebook and why it has not caught on in Mexico. Some very hard lessons are going to be learned by some US citizens along those lines, I fear. Naivete in a globalized society is a dangerous thing. Stupid is as stupid does.

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Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 13:52:07

A lot of foreigners were hoping that our Imperialism would be scaled back under Obama. Fat chance.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 15:13:50

Socialism/Communism is not possible in one country or even a group of countries. The globalists cannot allow countries outside their orbit. People with talent my flee to free countries. The model of socialism that they are imposing is closest to the fascism model so the very wealthy will have even more power. The irony is the people that they are using to obtain power will be discarded as just “eaters” after they obtain the power. If you think that these sociopaths will have any trouble with eliminating virtually the entire population of Detroit for the “good” of mankind, you do not understand the .01%. People like Lola/Igor are just dupes as is Obama.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 15:15:20

my=may

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 06:19:13

Not sure how this got published by the NAR controlled media

“The fact that Americans still financially fetishize homeownership baffles me. Never mind that so many people lost their shirts (amomg other posessions) in the recent housing bust. Over an even longer horizon, owning a home has not proved to be a terribly lucrative investment either. Don’t take my word for it; ask Robert Shiller, winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics who previously became a household name for identifying the housing bubble.

“People forget that housing deteriorates over time. It goes out of style. There are new innovations that people want, different layouts of rooms,” he told me. “And technological progress keeps bringing the cost of construction down.” Meaning your worn, old-fashioned home is competing with new, relatively inexpensive ones.”

Yet Americans still think it’s financially savvy to dump all their savings into a single, large, highly illiquid asset.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/catherine-rampell-americans-think-owning-a-home-is-better-for-them-than-it-is/2014/04/21/5e9f4dd2-c979-11e3-93eb-6c0037dde2ad_story.html

Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-04-22 06:40:51

Think of it this way:

If you rent then you pay the landlord and the landlord pays for the upkeep.

If you own outright then you don’t have to pay a landlord but you yourself have to pay for the upkeep.

And if you are BUYING then you have to pay the lender (who is the true landlord) AND you have to pay for the upkeep.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-04-22 06:48:20

What is neat about using the term “homeowner” in place of the more accurate term “homebuyer” is the buyer of the house will treat the house that he does not own with the same loving care in which a true owner would treat the house. And the true owner - the lender - benefits as a result.

People are smart.

 
 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 07:25:05

Put all your cash in a house or the stock market. It seems like it is too the moon with both … until it isn’t.

Dow 17000.

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-22 07:40:25

The ten percent average annual gain in stocks since 1926 withstood world wars, depression, inflation crisis, emerge crisis, right wing regimes, commie regimes, and so on. While housing went up 3 or 4% annually.

How can you put housing in the same category as stocks? That’s beyond me.

Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 13:08:31

Will it survive the tapering of Yellenbux?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 07:30:56

Hmmmm…… A truthful article about housing? How did it slip through Pravda?

Good find Goon. Use it!

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 08:23:00

“Use it!”

I forwarded it to someone I work with, age 23, getting married next month (a mistake that warrants its own discussion), he and fiancee have wisely leased an apartment together instead of buying.

Asking prices in Denver are going to CRATER this spring and summer.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 07:44:48

I could refute most of this opinion piece, but I’ll simply reiterate that I want a paid-off house by the time I retire.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 08:06:38

If u could, you would have.

Nothing wrong with the goal of a unencumbered house at retirement. Its your plan to reach that goal is what buried you.

A very costly lesson in patience for you indeed.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 08:39:05

“I want a paid-off house by the time I retire…”

Maybe you do and maybe you will get there. Long term debt on a bubble priced house is not the short path though, it’s the longest hardest path. If we look at what you have done rather than what you have said, you wanted to end up with as little as possible by the time you retire.

Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 09:11:42

So wait, Blue, what’s the easier path?

Rent for 20 years, invest the difference, and have enough to buy outright when I retire? I did a calculation, and starting at $1200/month with a 4% rent increase a year, I would pack away a whopping $35000 to invest. Even adding that to down payment, I’d be fortunate to afford an Oil City house. With buying, I could probably afford 2.5 Oil City houses.

Rent for X years, wait for housing to craaater, buy low? News flash: I DID THAT. I rented for 18 years, waited for housing to craaater, and I bought for 36% off peak pricing. Or do you really think that housing in DC is going to drop 20%?

Keepin renting for X more years, waiting for housing to craaaater WHICH HBB SWEARS IT’S GONNA DO… ANY MINUTE NOW… REALLY. Riiight. Didja notice that Whac has stopped posting all those did-you-sell-your-bond-yet bond articles now that Yellen assured us that interest rates aren’t going to do much anytime soon?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 11:06:24

OK, several things.

You waited through two decades of the biggest ramp up of house prices to buy, biding your time for a collapse? That doesn’t make sense.

House prices went up by a factor of three while you were renting. You missed the big inflation. You bought at 2004 prices, nearly a 40% discount? Can’t believe DC could drop 20%. Seems like a logical disconnect. The next leg down, which you cannot imagine happening will blow past that 20% without looking back. Check out the 40 year Case Shiller graph.

We’ve discussed before the 4% per year increase in rents to infinity. You are sure of that based on the past. I am confident it is not sustainable. That one thing changes the math drastically.

A person saving for something in retirement doesn’t do so by borrowing the money up front and paying it off at interest while the collateral deteriorates. It’s just the way math works. Would you buy your retirement car this way? A person saving for something in their retirement lives below their means, meaning a single person not living in an expansive 3/2. The choice you made was to live large now, pay for it later. That’s not a savings plan. Are you really planning on retiring in that house?

I don’t mind that you bought a house or that you borrowed to have rather instant gratification. I just mind the inside out math.

“Rent Slavery”. That was classic!

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 11:11:00

You waited through two decades of the biggest ramp up of house prices to buy, biding your time for a collapse? That doesn’t make sense.

She bought cheaper than renting. It’s been what, almost 3 years now? She could have it paid off in 12 more years. Rents and prices have increased since then.

The next leg down

In rents? When in DC in a meaningful way the past 80 years?

 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 12:48:43

Blue, I didn’t have much control over when I was born. I wasn’t “waiting to buy” during that ramp-up. I was getting an education and establishing a stable job.

All of your other points can be refuted with the same basic concept: if you’re not paying a mortgage, you’re paying rent. I already went over the calculations. Paying rent is losing ground, and I was losing more ground with every renewal.

(Rio, I’m basically set up for a 23-year mortgage.)

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 13:23:02

Then refute them then. You’re still here desperately seeking the vindication that will always be elusive. You’ve yet too refute anything here even once.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 17:22:12

“Rent for X years, wait for housing to craaater, buy low? News flash: I DID THAT. I rented for 18 years, waited for housing to craaater…”

then:

“I wasn’t “waiting to buy” during that ramp-up. I was getting an education and establishing a stable job.”

Pardon me Oxide, I enjoy a good conversation as much as anyone, but the only thing you’re refuting is what you just said.

 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 17:58:39

Then you’ll like my grammar. Skye, you read it as “rent for X years, waitING for housing to crater. What I wrote was that I “waitED” for housing to crater, which is different. In other words, I rented for some years , THEN waited for some more years for housing to craaater, and THEN I bought.

To be fair, more accurately, it was renting for 11 years, and waiting for 6-7 years to buy. It was during that 6-7 year period that I deliberately didn’t buy. Not coincidentally, those were the 6-7 years that I was on HBB, explaining why housing was going to craaaater. And I was lucky. The full craaatering came while I was waiting for the job to become stable. Then the commercial LL played rent games, which made it really easy for me to decide to buy and tell them to kiss off.

Admittedly, I did not know about the mass of investors snapping up homes to rent and causing the 2013 bubblet.

But Ben was right — investors were looking first and foremost for appreciation. Just another variation on buy low sell high. That’s why they stopped so suddenly. But they knew they could rent out as a backup plan, which I think justified the risk. Yesterday’s Tampa Bay article about investors not being able to collect high rents to please their Wall Street masters was delicious.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 18:14:57

“The full craaatering came”

If that were true, we’d have seen prices roll back to pre-bubble level. It didn’t happen. This you can look foward to now.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-22 19:24:36

Yes, the “full cratering”. It was a two year rollback on a 40 year credit mania. You haven’t seen anything yet.

May you always have a second chance to rewrite what you wrote with random Caps! I think that is called ducking and weaving.

“Yesterday’s Tampa Bay article about investors not being able to collect high rents to please their Wall Street masters was delicious.”

Really? This defies your basic assumptions. If you were to embrace this deflationary reality, your whole rent/buy spreadsheet would blow up in your face. I know it is a long way from DC to Florida, but when you live at the center of power, the distance is a foretelling with leverage.

On another note, I keep hearing things that point to peak government. Requests for a Constitutional Amendment are in from several states to curtail the influence of your Corporate Masters in elections. This I hope will be in the lines of women’s suffrage and racial equality. It is the fight to be in. May I live to see the death of K-street! Maybe the lab you are a tech in will survive, I have no idea what they do, no one asked me if I wanted to pay for it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-04-22 08:45:13

I read the comment section of that bias article. As a cash and close with decent timing for a BASIC one-story toe tag home, I agree with a lot of the comments posted in reply to that article. It’s not black and white. Paid off homes are essential for older age. Period.

My mother is a renter, and her rent jumps annually to pay the LL’s overhead. No thanks to eating cardboard. As I preach, every situation is different.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 10:16:37

And you overpaid 250% for a rapidly depreciating house and then doubled down on your loses and threw more money at it. Period.

Comment by inchbyinch
2014-04-22 14:57:29

HA
250% overpaid? BS. Truly, I can make up all kinds of cr*p as well. We bought when we saw a decent buy in a market starting to re-inflate. We’re fine, HB. We can sell right now and make some profit. So Ca is insanely bubblicious again. Our housing costs are a lifesaver. tyvm

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 15:39:28

It’s reality my friend. A 250% premium. You got ripped off and there isn’t a buyer out there for a fraction of the amount you’ve got in it.

 
Comment by Pete
2014-04-22 21:27:14

“and there isn’t a buyer out there for a fraction of the amount you’ve got in it.”

Well, then I guess we aren’t in a bubble anymore. Glad that’s over.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 21:31:46

Me too. Now get slashing those prices.

 
 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 10:52:44

housing deteriorates over time

Like we don’t all deteriorate over time. Like I’m not going to buy anymore shirts because they deteriorate over time and no more food because it goes bad. Housing is a consumption item and sometimes translates to forced savings and sometimes into making some money if you’re lucky, but it’s firstly a consumption item.

“The fact that Americans still financially fetishize homeownership baffles me.

I can’t understand how homeownership would “baffle” anyone. I can totally understand why one would want to rent instead (I did for 2 decades) but to be “baffled” by fellow Americans wanting to buy their own home is in itself baffling.

It’s like being “baffled” about people wanting kids or being “baffled” by those who don’t want kids - or “baffled” that someone actually likes cilantro.

http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/2/3/7/6/5/pages237651/p237651-3.php

“Homeownership is a highly prized status within American society and a symbol of middle class membership (Farley 1996; Jackman and Jackman 1980). A home announces the owner’s social status, provides shelter, determines who one’s neighbors and community will be, and is a key financial asset in a society that values personal wealth (Rosenbaum 1996). Homeownership also resonates with the country’s agricultural origins where land ownership was considered a democratic ideal, and the Lockean “pursuit of happiness” was actualized by the right to own and enjoy private property (Reid 2004; Schwarz 1997). As such, it has always been an essential component of the American Dream (Cullen 2003).

Not coincidently, this social ideal has been reinforced by federal and state policies that have encouraged homeownership via income tax codes and public loan programs (Rosen and Rosen 1980; Shapiro 2004; Yearns 1976). Beginning with the Homestead Act of 1862, through the GI Bill in the 1940’s and 1950’s, and continuing with the significant tax deductions available on home mortgage interest, federal policy has placed a strong emphasis on the importance and rewards of owning a home. Chevan (1989) finds that federal housing policy, in combination with rising demand, fueled the post-World War II increase in homeownership, which by 2006 was nearly 70% of all households (U.S. Census Bureau 2006).

These and other lending policies have also allowed Americans to purchase their homes at relatively young ages (often by the late 20’s or early 30’s) in comparison to their European counterparts (Chiuri and Jappeli 2003). The importance of homeownership is also found in the fact that for most Americans, the home represents their most valuable asset. For example, 44% of all U.S. wealth consists of home equity (U.S. Census Bureau 2001). “

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 11:00:06

Lola,

Even your Half-Way House depreciates.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 18:34:37

It occurs to me that any house Lola enters would then be a half-way house.

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Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 11:38:51

This post sponsored by the National Association of Realtors®

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 11:51:35

Like we don’t all deteriorate over time.

as usual comrade, you missed the point. his point was that a residential house is no more an ‘investment’ than your t-shirt.

 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 12:53:23

“Land ownership was considered a democratic ideal”

More like a means to grow your food, or rent the land out to people to grow their food. This is why I do not wish to buy a friggin’ floating box of air.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:53:24

It use to be a requirement to vote in many colonies. The belief was a landlord could so control your vote that it would just be giving to much power to the rich.

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Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-04-22 19:11:50

housing deteriorates over time.

What?

housing deteriorates over time.

It sure does!

And for us renters, if our place gets too out of style and too creaky, we can simply end the lease and move to newer areas

and still save money

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-04-22 19:18:24

Gold coin stored a certain way can last many times longer than a house in great sharp condition.

Even a parrot can last longer than a crack shack.

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 06:37:30

Happy Earth Day HBB :)

Enjoy your freedom while you still have it, because the warmists and Agenda 21 are gonna take away your F-350 and make you live in Soviet apartments. Don’t listen to the nattering nabobs of negativism, because infinite growth in a finite ecosystem is not only possible, but it’s required. Jim Bob and Michele Duggar are freedom fighters, the world needs more people like them to defeat the agenda of the Europeans and socialists and gays.

‘Merica, f* yeah!!1!11!

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 06:41:08

I have to say, it’s a bit odd that in all the hysteria about globule warming, NOTHING is being mentioned about over-population. Not so much as a whisper.

The more crowded a country, the less free it is.

Comment by aNYCdj
2014-04-22 07:00:00

how much does burning dried poop add to global warming?

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 07:04:57

Overpopulation? Didn’t you read the book of Sky Wizard and his son who got crosstified last Sunday for all our sins and stuff?

Sky Wizard wants you to make more baby humanoids. The world (that Sky Wizard created for us) has infinite resources. Those pointy headed science people work for the Devil.

Fun fact from wikipedia:

“April 22, 1970 (first observance of Earth Day), was coincidentally the 100th anniversary of the birth of Vladimir Lenin, when translated to the Gregorian calendar”

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:24:10

Speaking of global warming, the Great Lakes ice coverage is at record levels this year, and much of it is still hanging on. Good news, IMO.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/04/16/its-mid-april-and-coast-guard-is-still-battling-thickc-great-lakes-ice/

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 11:06:40

Speaking of global warming, the Great Lakes ice coverage is at record levels this year,

Speaking of global warming, It was so cold here the other night that I had to wear socks. Good news, IMO

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:55:37

Speaking of global warming, It was so cold here the other night that I had to wear socks. Good news, IMO

You need to stop standing on the corners in D.C. just wearing socks. You are traumatizing young children.

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 07:31:31

Cool story bro.

Earth Day is as good a day as any for us to kick off the 2014 HBB Wildfire betting pool.

Which western U.S. state will have the most humanoid deaths from wildfires?

Bonus points for guessing number of deaths and thousands of acres burned :)

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 07:52:28

Like fires have not been part of the Western landscape even prior to the arrival of man?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 12:06:37

Carbon taxes not working out so well in Cali:

http://calwatchdog.com/2014/04/21/sen-steinberg-dumps-carbon-tax-idea/

 
 
 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 07:29:27

Two countries with about an America’s number of people OVER a billion!

 
 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 07:27:19

I heard that the Apple Store leaves will be green today.

Also Lola may fruit extra Mangos in honor of Earth Day.

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 06:50:08

Speaking of Europeans and socialists and gays, how about that latest Hollywood pedophile sex scandal? From the New York Daily News:

“Egan and his lawyer, Jeff Herman, who previously represented victims in the molestation lawsuits against Elmo puppeteer Kevin Clash, said the three men were allegedly part, along with Singer, of a “sordid sex ring” that “groomed” underage boys to be sexually victimized in the late 90’s.

They allegedly attended “notorious parties” in Los Angeles and Hawaii, where underage boys were plied with drugs, alcohol and gifts”

Keep paying that cable bill ‘Merica and keep paying for those movie shows. Send all your money to Hollyweird so they can broadcast their family values into your home, and funnel some of that money upstairs to keep re-electing Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, and of course the lowest downlow of them all, Bathhouse Barry the Chicago Jesus :)

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:10:19

A huge boil that desperately needed lancing. Corey Feldman tried to call attention to the problem after Corey Haim OD’ed. But he wouldn’t name names, some said because he was in fear for his life.

Sometimes the parents turn a blind eye, too. I hate to be so cynical, but in this case, it looks as if the promised roles didn’t materialize. Nonetheless, it is a situation that does bear some examination.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:17:49

“We’re in the money!
We did it, sonny!
We’ve got a lot of what it takes
To get along!”

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 07:20:21

“If you like your underage twinks, you can keep your underage twinks” — President Obama secretly recorded at a 2012 West Hollywood campaign fundraising event

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 07:31:07

This is all about bullying. Anyone named Cory who dies, does because he was bullied.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-22 06:52:06

Free Jon Corzine!!

Liberals/progressive cheer the destruction of the Rule of Law as they have “their guy” in charge and it currently benefits them and their politics. They never think of the day it will be used against them.

—————–

5 Ways Obama Has Destroyed The Rule Of Law In America
Townhall | Apr 22, 2014 | John Hawkins

When you allow unlawful acts to go unpunished, you’re moving toward a government of men rather than a government of law; you’re moving toward anarchy. And that’s exactly what we’re doing. — John Wayne

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. — George Orwell

Tell me why any American should respect the law?

Because it’s moral? Not necessarily. Slavery was once the law of the land. Abortion is the law of the land today. Even in a nation like America, it’s not unusual for laws to be unfair, unjust, and even immoral.

Is it because laws represent the will of the people? Not anymore. Today, the “law” is often summarily created from murky statutes by unelected bureaucrats who face no consequences for destroying people’s lives.

Well, is the law at least equally applied? Absolutely not. Your political affiliation and how well connected you are to the regime in charge can have a direct bearing on whether you’re prosecuted for breaking the law and how serious the penalty will be.

So, what’s left?

Respect for the law? Why should anyone respect arbitrary, immoral laws that aren’t equally applied and don’t reflect the will of the people? Under Barack Obama, the “law” in this country has become nothing more than whatever you can get away with and we’re likely to feel the consequences of that for decades to come.

1) Obamacare is whatever Barack Obama says it is: Barack Obama has no more legal right to change Obamacare all by his lonesome than Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, or for that matter, Justin Bieber does. He simply doesn’t have the legal authority to delay the employer mandate, delay taxes that are written into law, or give subsidies through federal exchanges to places where no state exchange was set up. Yet, Obama has delayed or changed the meaning of the law 19 times as if he were Kim Jong- un, as opposed to the President of a republic.

2) There are different laws for Tea Parties and the Occupy Movement: In city after city, the Occupy Movement was allowed to protest without expensive permits, participants were allowed to illegally camp and in some places they were allowed to break the law with impunity, which is why it’s so staggering that there were still almost 8,000 arrests by the time all the dirty hippies abandoned their tents and rape-free zones to go home and take showers. Meanwhile, Tea Party groups across the country weren’t given any similar breaks.

When groups all across the country are charged thousands of dollars for permits and liability insurance solely because of their political beliefs while other groups are given a free pass, there is no equality under the law.

3) Illegal immigration becomes legal: Admittedly, George W. Bush did a mediocre job of securing the border and enforcing immigration law. However, as a practical matter, illegal immigration isn’t “illegal” anymore. Obama has illegally passed his own version of the DREAM Act, illegally handed out work permits to people who are breaking the law, and for all intents and purposes, has stopped detaining illegal immigrants who haven’t been charged with other crimes. According to Senator Jeff Sessions , “at least 99.92% of illegal immigrants and visa overstays without known crimes on their records did not face removal.”

4) The IRS illegally targeted Tea Partiers: If the IRS ever comes after you, try refusing to hand over documentation for years and pleading the 5th Amendment and see what happens to you. If you’re lucky, maybe you’ll end up in the same minimum security prison that Wesley Snipes went to after some advisors convinced him he didn’t have to pay taxes. Yet, after the IRS targeted Tea Partiers because they were conservative, tried to refer them for prosecution to the DOJ, and illegally released some of their information to outside parties, the IRS officials have been refusing to cooperate with the investigation. If the IRS wasn’t guiltier than Wesley Snipes, it would be cooperating just like the rest of us are forced to do when we face an audit.

5) Eric Holder encouraged state attorney generals to refuse to defend traditional marriage in court: In other words, if your state passes a ban on gay marriage, Holder wants state attorney generals to undercut the will of the people in order to further his political agenda. So according to Eric Holder, whether the people of a state get to have a representative in court depends on whether or not liberal attorney generals agree with their opinion or not. As John Suthers, the attorney general of Colorado, said:

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 07:05:38

Yes, the rule of law has been pretty well busted out in the US. It is capriciously applied, at best.

“Tell me why any American should respect the law?”

A question I’ve often wondered about.

Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-22 10:07:42

Tell me why any American should respect the law?”

Because you don’t want to go to jail? I mean not everyone can afford Polly, Joe or Saul Goodman to save themselves from Jail even if their only crime was to steal a loaf of bread.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 12:08:15

Interesting that you mention Polly and Joe there but not Dan. It is because you assume that he can’t be any good?

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Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-22 12:25:11

AQDan is a lawyer?

Sorry if I hurt your feelings.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:07:18

Not at all. I just assumed it was because you consider me to be too sensible to be an attorney, I get that a lot. But Mighty Mike could not afford my rates, if I decided to practice in criminal law. I have done some pro bono in criminal law but I prefer complex litigation, more interesting and more lucrative. However, these days I am in-house and prevent problems not profit from them.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 13:27:56

I have done some pro bono in criminal law but I prefer complex litigation,

OMGosh, you are a lawer ADan? How? How can you possibly be any good at “complex litigation” if you appear totally baffled by complex math, science and long term trends? You appear to not even be able to grasp the fact that Obama has inherited and continued the long term policies of TrickleDown -34 years of SupplySide tripe. You think that every president gets a total economic and policy re-set every time he enters new office. How, when and where could this ever be possible in America? I see very little flexibility and/or originality in your thinking. It’s boilerplate talking points most of the time.

So how can you be any good at “complex litigation” when you don’t seem to grasp even simple trends let alone complex ones?

If you are good at “complexities” in your work, then you obviously making up a lot of BS on this blog - you have a political agenda.

If you really believe what you say, there is no way on earth that I’d hire you as a lawyer. IMO you could not come close to cutting the mustard when faced with a decent opposing lawyer. Other than that, you rock.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 13:31:15

You have no idea what I can afford. That’s more evidence of your lack of interest in facts.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:43:15

You have no idea what I charge so we are even.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 14:07:51

No, we’re not even. You claimed that I couldn’t afford you.
I never claimed that I could afford you. I have no idea whether I could. I say that because the information is not available.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 14:25:18

MightyMike you jump to the conclusion that I was not mentioned because the she did think I was a good attorney and then try to assert that I jump to conclusions? Please, you are so contradictory today trying to attack me, you have abandoned all logic even for a lefty.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 14:46:53

Rio, every new attorney takes the same standardize test as part of his or her bar exam. I scored in the 99% of all attorneys, believe it or not it is a fact. In fact, I scored higher than the highest applicant in many states. Sorry if your IQ is so low you cannot even fathom when you are being shown to be an idiot.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 15:00:11

scored higher than 99% of the applicants.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 15:09:29

Did you see what I wrote to Dolly? It was a question. I didn’t jump to any conclusion.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 15:21:04

Come on, it is a push question, anyone with an IQ above room temperature knows that you were making an assertion with that question. In the law it is the same as asking a witness are you still beating your wife? You need to have some basis to even ask a question like that. Mike why don’t you just go back to trying to discuss issues instead of engaging in ad hominem attacks so I can just discuss issues?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 15:55:56

It was a bit of an insult, but there was no assertion. Or to use legal language, there was no intent to assert. There are three lawyers who post regularly or ocassionally on this blog. I saw that Dolly only listed two, so a little joke occurred to me. It would make absolutely no sense to assume that Dolly thinks that you’re a bad lawyer. I don’t recall Dolly ever expressing any opinion about you. My assumption was he/she just forgot you while quickly typing a remark. Nevertheless, I saw it as an opportunity to make a little joke.

This brings up something that I find interesting on this blog. A number of people feel a need to brag about their academic achievements. I have a STEM degree! I’m an enginerr! I’m a magna cum laude engineer! I got a high score on an IQ test once!

The topics that discussed on the HBB don’t require a great deal of intelligence or education to understand. There’s not a lot of challenging math involved.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-04-22 16:17:13

‘not a lot of challenging math involved’

I don’t know about that. Look at how many fail to understand $200,000 is a sh*t load of money.

 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 18:07:38

How can you possibly be any good at “complex litigation” if you appear totally baffled by complex math, science and long term trends?

Because “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” (Upton Sinclair)

From what I can tell, A-dan is well-paid to represent the fracking and natural gas industry. Instead of using his intelligence to understand the science, he uses his intelligence to cherry pick favorable data and ignore unfavorable data, thus carefully drafting feel-good logical fallacies to make his masters all gooshy on the inside.

 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 07:14:04

The year 2011 called and they want their Occupy memes back, dude.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 07:33:29

Occupy memes? Were they big on calling out the powers that be over shamnesty?

 
Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-22 10:11:12

I have always wondered what happened to occupy movement?

Was it essentially an astroturf movement to counterattack teabaggers?

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 10:33:28

This has been discussed here before some time ago.

One of Occupy’s initial “demands” was for a transaction tax on stock trades. This is unacceptable to the hedgies and pigmen 0.1%ers.

Occupy sadly got bogged down in a laundry list of other libtard crusades, which enabled the PTB and their media fluffers to create the Occupy versus Tea Party meme.

Occupy was crushed by a coalition of fascist mayors and Obama’s thug army DHS.

The Tea Party endured but any possible threat it gave to the 0.1% was neutered and astroturfed.

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Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 13:00:28

Good summary. If Occupy had stuck on the 1%, the stock tax, and outsourced jobs meme, they would have had a chance. To this day I wonder what would have happened if they had actually acted like they wanted jobs, like wearing office clothing and Occupying during working hours, networking on their iPads. They might still be there.

Now, Occupy is occupied with “saving” the homes of old ladies who were living in a house for 40 years yet inexplicably “roll” still had a mortgage payment.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2014-04-22 06:57:34

Our Beloved Pearl Paint closed after 80 years

http://gothamist.com/2014/04/21/pearl_paint_has_closed.php

Here are the spec $15 mill….2000 sq ft air rights…

http://www.masseyknakal.com/listingimages/setup/pdf/304-306_Canal_Street_Sales_Setup.pdf

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 07:21:58

From Goldseek.com:

The U.S. dollar has lost value at an increasing rate since 1971. What cost $100 in 1971 costs $2,428 now, a 96% decline. The dollar lost 75% of its value from 1914 to 1971 and 96% from 1971 to 2014, adding up to a 99% decline over the 100-year period from 1914 to 2014. (I used the Inflation Calculator on shadowstats.com to obtain these numbers.[3])

Such a precipitous decline in the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power disqualifies it as real money. A critical attribute of money is that it be a store of value. The American dollar was money in its truest sense only when it was backed by gold, and to some degree by silver. Not only did it function as a unit of account and medium of exchange, it also served as a store of value. The dollar maintained its purchasing power from the Colonial period in the 1600s up until 1914, when the Fed was formed and World War I began. It lost value twice during this time, in the American Revolutionary War when Continental dollars printed to finance it became worthless, and with National Bank notes, printed to pay for the Civil War. But during periods of economic growth accompanied by price deflation, 1820-1855 and 1873-1910, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar increased 50%.[4,5]

As originally defined, inflation means an increase in an economy’s quantity of money. Now, however, the state and its Keynesian economists define inflation as a rise in selected consumer prices, diverting attention from increases in the quantity of money, the true cause of climbing consumer prices. From a Keynesian perspective, if selected prices don’t climb then there is no inflation—irrespective of how much money banks create or how much inflation of the money supply bloats equity and real estate prices. Bill Buckler, in his financial newsletter The Privateer, puts it this way: “For more than three generations, governments and central banks have inflated the quantity of money in circulation while at the same time engaging in futile efforts to counter the economic effects of their own inflation. They have used price controls, rationing, more regulations, higher taxes and even subsidies to bring some high prices down. When all that failed, they resorted to ‘cooking the books’ by ignoring any inconvenient price rises.”[6] Seen in this light, the Fed’s goal of keeping inflation under 2% is not credible.

The decades-long monetary inflation of the U.S. dollar is now producing a spike in consumer prices. Food prices in the U.S. are up 19% in the first 3 months of 2014, a 76% annualized price inflation rate, raising concerns that hyperinflation looms.

John Williams has published a two-part, 108-page Special Commentary titled Hyperinflation 2014: The End Game Begins, First Installment (revised and updated, April 2); and Great Economic Tumble, Second Installment (April 8, 2014). He predicts that this is what will happen to the U.S. dollar.[3] With hyperinflation, prices increase so rapidly that the involved currency soon becomes worthless. In its final stage, prices rise considerably by the day and even by the hour, to the point that the currency’s largest pre-hyperinflation note (U.S. $100) becomes worth more as kindling for a fire than as currency. Williams writes, “A direct result of Fed and U.S. government efforts to delay systemic collapse, as long as possible, the hyperinflation will have been born beyond the reach of official containment, the child of last-ditch efforts to salvage a system that had been methodically pushed into long-range insolvency by decades of political and policy malfeasance by the federal government and Federal Reserve.” He predicts that the 99% loss of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power that occurred over the last 100 years could be repeated in the span of less than 12 months starting in 2014.

This has been the recorded fate of 389 fiat currencies in 170 countries, each one becoming worthless.[1] This outcome has been the fate of all state-controlled fiat money throughout human history. The United States has already made this list with its Continental dollar (from whence comes the phrase, “Not worth a Continental”). Two notable examples are the Weimar German mark and the Zimbabwean dollar. Early in 1922 a loaf of bread cost 1 mark. Then it suddenly increased to 700 marks. In July it cost 100,000 marks for a loaf of bread and in September, 2,000,000 marks. Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe from 2006 to 2009 was worse. Towards the end authorities issued Zimbabwean dollars in 100-trillion-dollar (with 26 zeros) denominations that had a value equivalent to that of a single original Zimbabwe two-dollar bill.

Comment by cactus
2014-04-22 11:28:15

Such a precipitous decline in the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power disqualifies it as real money. A critical attribute of money is that it be a store of value. ”

That’s why you buy Real estate ;-)

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 12:11:45

It’s probably a good general rule to just disregard any article that uses the word fiat, unless it’s about cars.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:11:45

It’s probably a good general rule to just disregard any article that uses the word fiat, unless it’s about cars.

Could not disagree more. If it is about fiat currency it is about the true problems in the world, if it is about a Fiat car, you can ignore it unless you were foolish enough to buy such a crappy car. So Mike, how is your Fiat car running, about as well as Chicago?

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 07:39:59

YOY for Feb was 6.9 percent increase. Rate of increase declining. May or June it turns negative.

All these YOY statistical tricks and stat juking. Just like those falling off the unemployment rolls.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 07:55:22

I agree the only thing this administration and its friendly media are good at is convincing people that bad numbers are actually good numbers.

 
 
 
Comment by Blondiegirl
2014-04-22 07:27:44

We are the only renters in our cul de sac. Been renting this home since 1999 (I have the best landlord ever! Only raised our rent one time and then later changed his mind, still paying the same rent amount as we did in 1999). Been saving A BUNCH of ca$h too! And thanks to this great blog we never made the mistake of purchasing.
Any who, from whats been going on around me here (I live in California, nuff said) in our little cul de sac I’m glad to say we never purchased.
There are ten homes located here in our cul de sac and three are as follows: one neighbor’s house sold at Auction in Nov. (they purchased it in 1989 for 150k, owe 250k), our other neighbor got a HARP loan (purchased in 1989 for 120k, owed back taxes) and third neighbor is currently short selling their home (purchased in 2004 235k owe 290k).
Yep, it looks like we’re gonna keep renting and watch the bigger fools part from their money.

Got popcorn?

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-22 07:45:02

Keep renting Blondiegirl! I have been renting since 1996 and I saved a bunch of cash too. So much that I give away regularly to charity these days.

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 08:36:00

Yup. If you’re gonna go Oil City, bring your job with you when you go.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2014-04-22 08:37:26

Interesting thread. Mostly predictable. But it did strike me that there might be a bigger problem than the actual dollar amount and she might not understand. Yes, they don’t want people who will be dissatisfied and leave soon. But maybe even more importantly…they want a little desperation. They want to own her. And she just wants the job because she’s bored. My prediction is that they have a bigger problem with not being able to bully her than with her salary history.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 08:49:08

60K vs 25K? Sure, housing is a lot cheaper, but other than that I suspect that there isn’t that big of a difference. Energy, motor vehicles, healthcare, clothes, durable goods, food, etc. probably have similar costs.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 10:31:52

Around 15 years ago my aunt and uncle retired and moved from San Jose, CA to Mesa, AZ. My aunt pointed out that housing and gasoline were a lot cheaper in their new home town, but everything else was about the same. Of course, they bought their San Jose house in 1980, so they didn’t experience the truly insane house prices.

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 09:22:17

The future belongs to Lucky Ducky

New York Times - The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest

“The American middle class, long the most affluent in the world, has lost that distinction.

While the wealthiest Americans are outpacing many of their global peers (it’s good to be the king), a New York Times analysis shows that across the lower and middle income tiers, citizens of other advanced countries have received considerably larger raises over the last three decades.

The numbers, based on surveys conducted over the last 35 years, offer some of the most detailed publicly available comparisons for different income groups in different countries over time. They suggest that most American families are paying a steep price for high and rising income inequality.”

Welcome to the recoveryless recovery

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 10:55:29

That’s a great article, goon. Now a prosperous middle class is European, socialist and gay.

Comment by Igor
2014-04-22 11:34:38

We need someone like SuperPutin to help us beat down the last of these eurotrash metrosexual middle classers in our midst! They’re a threat to the children!

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 11:48:29

Less Daft Punk (France) and moar Ted Nugent (’Merica f* yeah!)

They only wear those robot suits to hide how gay they look…

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:49:10

So as the average IQ in the U.S. drops in relation to the European countries our advantage over them in wages drops, I could not have seen that coming. (sarcasm off) Canada recruits many Asian immigrants with a higher IQ, we let people pour across our border with low IQs. If you have an IQ above room temperature, you can see where this will lead. But hey lets give all the illegal immigrants amnesty and let them bring in their families. We can probably lower our national IQ to about 92 with that move. The closer our country’s IQ is to room temperature the more likely a permanent democratic majority will be in place.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-04-22 09:26:28

From this past weekend’s Weekend Topics:

Neuromance [2014-04-19 10:19:56]: Regardless, one needs to look under the hood, in my opinion, to understand what’s going on. Under the hood, there is massive Fed and government intervention.

Rental Watch [2014-04-20 04:13:23]: In that regard, you cannot say that we are back to the bubble levels of 2005-2007. No where close. However, I think the most important graph to consider is the graph associated with Shiller’s long-term data: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig2-1.xls

This is a link to Shiller’s 1890-present INFLATION ADJUSTED home price data.

Some observations:

1) The data and chart in that Excel file are identical to the classic Case Shiller chart. Thus, the classic Case Shiller chart is also inflation adjusted.

2) The chart in that file is based on a column called “Real Home Price Index” which equals [Current Year Nominal Home Price Index / Current Year CPI] / [1890 Nominal Home Price Index / 1890 CPI].

3) Some summaries of that data (RHPI is Real Home Price Index):

Current RHPI = 134.0

3a) ============================================
RHPI: 1890-Present (includes the bubble):
Average RHPI: 113.2
Median RHPI: 109.6
Standard Deviation: 23.0
Max RHPI: 198.0 (occurred in 2006)

3b) ============================================
RHPI: 1971 (Start of securitization era: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage-backed_security) - Present (includes bubble):
Average RHPI: 123.4
Median RHPI: 115.0
Standard Deviation: 23.1
Max RHPI: 198.0 (occurred in 2006)

3c) ============================================
RHPI: 1890 - 1999 (excludes bubble):
Average RHPI: 105.5
Median RHPI: 108.9
Standard Deviation: 13.0
Max RHPI: 125.8 (occurred in 1989)

3d) ============================================
RHPI: 1971-1999 (Age of securitization, excludes bubble)
Average RHPI: 111.6
Median RHPI: 109.7
Standard Deviation: 6.1
Max RHPI: 125.8 (occurred in 1989)

============================================

4) My take is:

i. I think it’s useful to exclude the bubble-era data because it skews the numbers.

ii. Just because we’re way off the top RHPI doesn’t mean we’re anywhere near even the Age Of Securitization (AOS) averages and medians. Today’s value of 134 is still 20% above the AOS average.

iii. Notice the previous, bubble-excluded, max RHPI was again during a fraud-driven scandal (Savings and Loan scandal).

5) Finally, kudos to Rental Watch for finding that Case Shiller data.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 10:39:41

I actually had a back an forth e-mail conversation with Shiller where we discussed the changes to CPI post-Boskin Commission with regard to his data.

My original question was whether in his data he adjusted CPI at all, or just took the numbers as reported. He didn’t adjust the CPI for his Excel spreadsheet, but takes the numbers as reported. Ultimately we concluded that POST-Boskin commission, CPI was understated relative to PRE-Boskin commission by perhaps up to a half a point per year.

If you envision a line that goes peak to peak to peak (excluding the bubble, only focusing on the ‘79 peak, the ‘89 peak, and the current level), making some adjustment for Boskin (which took hold in the late 90’s), you find that we WERE pretty close to a flat-line from ‘79 to ‘89 to late 2013.

We got back to a cyclical “peak” level in real terms in late 2013. We have now overshot a cyclical peak nationally.

Like I said over the weekend…where we go from here is a big question, but no one can say that the market (nationally) is “undervalued” anymore, and in fact, we have nationally gone above the trendline, while not yet at “bubble” levels nationally, some locations are WAY above the trendline–back to bubble territory.

Comment by Neuromance
2014-04-22 17:35:45

Rental Watch: We got back to a cyclical “peak” level in real terms in late 2013. We have now overshot a cyclical peak nationally.

It’s not at all clear to me that these can be called “cyclical” peaks.

1979: Right after the invention and first peak of the mortgage backed security: “Salomon and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) developed the first private mortgage-backed securities (MBS) — bonds that pooled thousands of mortgages and passed homeowners’ payments through to investors — in 1977.” — http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2004-11-28/lewis-s-dot-ranieri-your-mortgage-was-his-bond

1989: Middle of the Savings and Loan scandal: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

2006: Peak of the mortgage ratings fraud-driven bubble.

2013: Massive government and central bank intervention and market manipulation.

“Cyclical” suggests some organic, non-criminal, non-fraudulent, non-manipulated economic reasons for the ebbs and flows of the market. The term does not accurately describe the driving forces behind the real estate market over the past 30-some years.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-23 08:49:47

Neuro, do a Youtube search for “Economic Machine”, a 30-minute video by Ray Dalio and watch it. It’s actually very good. Economic cycles have EVERYTHING to do with credit market cycles.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-23 09:43:19

Is there a difference between ” very good” and “actually very good”?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-23 22:45:11

The first 3 minutes you’ll watch and think it is childish because it is animation made of stick figures…but if you watch it all, it’s far from childish.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-24 05:38:41

Does it discuss the tens of millions of excess empty houses?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 11:09:02

BTW Neuro, this is NOT the first time I posted the Shiller data…I used to do so every time HA posted his NON-inflation adjusted graph with a straight line going across as proof that we have a long way to fall.

Silly.

Thanks for being the first to actually look at the data that I posted.

It tells a much different story than “we’ve rebubbled” or “it’s a great time to buy”.

If I were to sum up my description of where we are today, I would say that we are back to a cyclical peak (not to bubble levels, nor a good time to buy).

The interesting questions (ie. those worthy of debate) are:

Where do we go from here?

Why did we bounce so quickly to the cyclical peak as compared to other cycles?

(the two most popular answers to this are “little new construction” and “ultra-low interest rates”…I think the truth lies somewhere in between).

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 17:53:59

“Where do we go from here?”

Opening things up for your run down false rhetoric is where you’re going with this.

-Housing Demand at 20 year lows

-Massive excess housing inventory in the 20-30 million range

-Grossly inflated housing prices creating a moribund, morose market

 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-22 13:21:25

Interesting…. I bought in early 2012, when the “real home price index” was 114. The last time that the index was that low was… late 1998. Maybe good ol’ HA was right!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 18:34:36

Who knows? You’re too afraid to disclose what you paid. It makes it clear to us you’re embarrassed.

 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-04-22 09:43:06

The return of securitisation
Back from the dead
A much-maligned financial innovation is in the early stages of a comeback
The Economist
Jan 11th 2014

IF YOU asked regulators in 2008 which financial instrument they most wished had never been invented, odds were that they angrily splurted a three-letter acronym linked to securitisation. The practice of bundling up income streams such as credit-card and car-loan repayments, repackaging them as securities and selling them on in “tranches” with varying levels of risk once seemed like enlightened financial management. Not so after many a CDO, CLO, ABS, MBS and others (see table) turned out to be infested with worthless American subprime mortgages.

Find the same regulator today and he is probably devising a ploy to resuscitate the very financial vehicle he was bemoaning five years ago. Enthusiasm for the once-reviled practice of transforming a future income stream into a lump sum today—the essence of securitisation—is palpable. In Britain Andy Haldane, a cerebral official at the Bank of England, recently described it as “a financing vehicle for all seasons” that should no longer be thought of as a “bogeyman”. The European Central Bank (ECB) is a fan, as are global banking regulators who last month watered down rules that threatened to stifle securitisation.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21593424-much-maligned-financial-innovation-early-stages-comeback-back

 
Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-22 09:55:18

Are Chinese buying everything in cali? Stats like this show there’s very little demand for housing.

From zerohedge

Number Of Middle Age Californians Living With Their Parents Soars

For seven years through 2012, the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents’ homes swelled 67.6% to about 194,000, according to the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the Insight Center for Community Economic Development. Many more young adults live with their parents than those in their 50s and early 60s live with theirs. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 1.6 million Californians have taken up residence in their childhood bedrooms, according to the data. Though that’s a 33% jump from 2006, the pace is half that of the 50 to 64 age group.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-22 10:40:35

Many moons ago, when we lived in South Florida, we put our rather modest concrete block house up for sale, by owner. We had a number of people come by to see it, including a nice young couple from Switzerland. They were flabbergasted that a person could actually afford to “buy” a house in the US if they wanted to. This was back in the 1990s. They thought the prices were astoundingly low.

They told us that it was practically impossible for a middle class person to afford a house, even a small one, in Western Europe, that it was not uncommon to see generation after generation live in the same family owned home. If you were not a firstborn heir, you were generally out of luck.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 11:14:36

New York Times - The American Middle Class Is No Longer the World’s Richest

By international standards, most American houses, especially those in flyover, seem inexpensive. Of course if you make minimum wage at 3 part time jobs you still can’t afford them.

But the point the Swiss couple was making was that even for a couple with good paying jobs that home ownership was a pipe dream, unless of course you waited to inherit your parents’ home, which is what happened to a sister-in-law, who inherited a modest London house that she could sell for over a million pounds.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 10:47:48

Little demand for housing?

What are you talking about? Do you think that 18-29 year old kids WANT to live at home?

There is a girl across the street in this category…college graduate, gainfully employed…she’s looking, but can’t find a place to live that is reasonably priced.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY. More supply would bring down prices, and these people would stream out of their childhood bedrooms…gladly.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 10:59:00

There are 25 MILLION excess empty houses out there and growing by the day. There is plenty of supply. What is missing is demand….

Remember… Housing demand has fallen to 20 year lows… and sliding lower.

Mortgage Purchase Applications Plunge Further – Near 19 Year Lows

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-19/mortgage-applications-plunge-further-near-19-year-lows

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 11:17:40

There is a girl across the street in this category…college graduate, gainfully employed…she’s looking, but can’t find a place to live that is reasonably priced.

Seen that myself up close. It’s very demoralizing for the kids, when rent on a 1 bedroom apt can eat up half their salary or more. And for them buying a house is something other people do.

It’s a Lucky Ducky world.

 
Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-22 12:21:14

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY

N1gga, please!

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-22 12:49:55

Is that the best counter-argument you have to evidence of low supply in California such as:

Low vacancy rates
Prices rising
Historically low housing starts
Overcrowding problems

and now,

Younger folks staying at home longer

Really? No better counter argument?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 15:42:35

Nobody is arguing here.

4.4 million excess empty and defaulted houses in CA is your problem.

 
 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-22 11:50:05

the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents’ homes swelled 67.6%

But how old are the parents of a 50-64 year old? I’ll bet a lot of those parents are grateful that their kids came home.

Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 1.6 million Californians have taken up residence in their childhood bedrooms, according to the data. Though that’s a 33% jump from 2006, the pace is half that of the 50 to 64 age group.

And how old are the parents of 18-29 year olds compared to the parents of 50-64 year olds? That might have something to do with it.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 13:55:33

But how old are the parents of a 50-64 year old? I’ll bet a lot of those parents are grateful that their kids came home.

Good point. How many of them moved in to care for their parents?

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-22 18:39:07

Thank The Lord Lola has only produced many mangos.

 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2014-04-22 11:09:33

The Daily Ticker

Another issue that’s affecting home buyers: lending requirements. Now that the volume of refinancing has decreased, banks are getting searching for new ways to make money: they’re lowering down payment requirements, targeting lower credit-score borrowers and more.

A recent Wall Street Journal article reveals that mortgage standards are becoming more lax. Within the past year, one in six homebuyers made down payments of less than 10%, which is the highest share since 2008 (excluding FHA mortgages). But in early 2007 that figure was more than 44%.

“Lending standards are going to erode as we head into the next year or two,” says Humphries.

 
Comment by IE LANDLORD KING
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-04-22 12:17:26

I’ll never forget the scene in SoCal while on vacation. What appeared to be 25-30 men hanging out during the day, riding their bicycles around. Come on dudes, time to grow up.

Comment by Blackhawk
2014-04-22 13:18:46

25-30 yr old men

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-22 13:58:31

Really 25-30 year old children refusing to become adults.

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Comment by goon squad
2014-04-22 17:44:26

time to man up and marry those single momz, beta boyz

just sign over your check right there on the dotted line…

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-22 13:57:56

For all you know they work odd hours. Maybe it was their day off. Maybe they were between jobs. Maybe they were bums. Who knows?

 
Comment by cactus
2014-04-22 16:43:51

That would be San Diego.

Comment by Blackhawk
2014-04-22 17:16:15

Yes San Diego. I figured their daddies were taking care of them so they didn’t need a job. What’s up with that? I never saw that in the OC.

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Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-22 17:51:02

You need to track down the daddies and ask them. Follow the money.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2014-04-22 16:42:40

How is this possible? Downlow Joe an expert on ‘poors’ said rich don’t buy RE as it’s a poor investment.

Rich Buy Real Estate, Poor Want Gold
6 APR 22, 2014 8:17 AM EDT
By Barry Ritholtz

“Upper-income Americans are much more likely to say real estate and stocks are the best investment, possibly because of their experience with these types of investments. Upper-income Americans are most likely to say they own their home, at 87%, followed by middle (66%) and lower-income Americans (36%). Gallup found that homeowners (33%) are slightly more likely than renters (24%) to say real estate is the best choice for long-term investments.
Now compare that with this:

Lower-income Americans, those living in households with less than $30,000 in annual income, are the most likely of all income groups to say gold is the best long-term investment choice, at 31%. Upper-income Americans are the least likely to name gold, at 18%.
The wealthy like real estate and equities; the poor prefer gold.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 17:10:45

The wealthy develop, build and sell real estate.

The foolish middle class middle class commit financial suicide and buy real estate thinking they’re buying an investment.

The foolish middle class slide into the poor class as a result.

Make sense now?

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-04-22 18:35:21

“Rich Buy Real Estate, Poor Want Gold”

But do the poor own gold?

Would “the poor” tell anyone they know that they own gold?

My sisters don’t know about my gold, silver, and platinum.

Physical bullion is a movable, hidable asset. How much do people really have? A house is not hidable. The EPA could find a rare species such as the Blue Headed Polly SchoolMarmStatist bird on your lot and come in with paramilitary and order you out.

But tiny highly valuable metals are harder to know about.

 
 
Comment by tj
2014-04-22 16:55:15

test

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-04-22 17:21:16

REAL ESTATE: Where are the boomerang buyers?

BY DEBRA GRUSZECKI | STAFF WRITER |
Published: March 05, 2014; 02:37 PM

This headline definitely caught my eye: “The Boomerang Veers Off Course.”

It appeared in a March 4 newsletter by Irvine-based John Burns Real Estate Consulting, as Sean Fergus makes the point that of the 5.3 million households that lost a home to a foreclosure or short sale from 2007 to 2013, many are regrouping to become homeowners again.

Fergus wrote that 889,000 people once in a state of mortgage distress have already repurchased a home.

http://www.pe.com/business/business-headlines/20140305-real-estate-where-are-the-boomerang-buyers.ece - 93k

Now, on the day he was born
The nurses all gathered ’round
And they gazed in wide wonder
At the Beat they had found
The head nurse spoke up
Said “leave this one alone”
She could tell right away
He was a bad one to loan

Bad one to loan
Bad one to loan
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-bad
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-bad
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-bad
Bad one to loan

He refied in 06
What he bought in 02
Bill collectors they call
But they never get through
He says he’s Hardest Hit
Got an Obama Phone
I’m here to tell ya buddy
He’s a bad one to loan

Bad one to loan
Bad one to loan
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-bad
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-bad
B-b-b-b-b-b-b-bad
Bad one to loan

Comment by Muggy
2014-04-22 18:06:12

It’s much more pleasant to read your housing/hit parody posts, as compared to your Mel Gibson-style stuff.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-22 19:02:37

Our little friend “Josh” is pandering by email now. :mrgreen:

 
 
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